A military friend, now in Baghdad sent me the two following pieces concerning internal Iraqi politics and Muqtada al-Sadr. I have though for some time that he is likely to emerge from the ruin of the Maliki government as a MUCH stronger figure in Iraq. I think that at the same time as we are pursuing a "deal" with Iran over our various "issues" we should look to our relations with this man. Whatever government emerges in post occupation Iraq, it will be necessary to have a diplomatic relationship with it in orde to play a prudent part in the ME. We should be setting up the conditions for that NOW. pl
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"S"Sadr, Aides Review Local Situations, National Reconciliation
At an expanded two-day meeting held in Al-Najaf the day before yesterday, young Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr urged the directors of "Martyr Al-Sadr offices" and "Al-Mahdi Army" commanders all over Iraq to "bury their differences and open a new page with local governments in the governorates and the Iraqi Shiite and Sunni political and religious parties." He also called on them to adopt the "let bygones be bygones principle and start a broad reconciliation process to heal the rift in inter-Shiite and Shiite-Sunni relations during the past period."
Muhammad al-Sa'idi, one of Al-Sadr's most prominent aides, told "Al-Hayat" that "he discussed the situations in the arena, the changes in the stands of several Shiite and Sunni political parties, and the impact of this on the political and security situations in Iraq as well as the repercussions of the political stands taken by Al-Sadr bloc and Martyr Al-Sadr offices when they dealt with these changes." He pointed out that "Al-Sadr carried out an extensive review of the political action mechanisms adopted by Al-Sadrist figures that confronted the religious and political processes during the past period."
He pointed out that Al-Sadr "came out from these meetings with a clear concept of how to deal with several problems" and that he recommended "the formation of several committees to lay down the necessary mechanisms and propose the required treatments for ending the previous disagreements between Al-Sadrists and the local authorities and Shiite and Sunni political and religious forces, for burying the disagreements with all these parties before they exacerbate, and for activating the reconciliation process." He called on the "Martyr Al-Sadr offices", "Al-Mahdi Army" commanders, the Shiite and Sunni political forces, and local governments "to open a new page, put differences aside, and adopt the "let bygones be bygones" principle."
Al-Sa'idi stressed that "Al-Sadr ordered the sending of delegations that include religious and political leaders from his trend to Iraq's neighboring countries and regional ones with influence in the Iraqi arena to explain the real situations and the impact of the sectarian sedition that has affected all the communities without exception and to call on these governments to support Iraq's security and stability, contain the sectarian sedition, and close the doors in the face of those propagating it."
He added that the "discussions also dealt with the work of Martyr Al-Sadr's political bureau in
Iraq
" and said Al-Sadr "formed a committee to examine the bureau's work, evaluate its achievements during the past period, and present the necessary recommendations." He pointed out that "some Al-Sadr Trend leaders called for dissolving the political bureau and restructuring it due to the many failures of its work during its management of several political crises that emerged between the central government and Al-Sadrist bloc on one side and the local governments, Al-Mahdi Army elements, and Martyr al-Sadr offices in the governorates on the other side." Al-Sa'idi concluded that Al-Sadr "will meet tomorrow (today) with the local governments' heads (the governors) in the central and southern regions to discuss the common issues." (Al-Hayat – Independent, London-based, Pan-Arab)
Iraq's al-Sadr harbors ambitious plans
By Hanza Hendawi and Qassim Abdul-Zahra
The Associated Press
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- From hiding, possibly in Iran, U.S. nemesis and radical
anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is believed to be honing plans to
sweep into the power vacuum made all the more intense by news that his chief
Shiite rival has lung cancer. And he's betting the U.S. won't keep its troops in
Iraq much longer.
Al-Sadr aides and loyal lawmakers have told The Associated Press the cleric's
ambitions mean he will avoid taking on the Americans militarily as he did in
2004, when his Mahdi Army militia fought U.S. forces to a standstill.
Instead, the 33-year-old cleric plans to keep up the drumbeat of anti-American
rhetoric, consolidate political gains in Baghdad and the mainly Shiite south,
and quietly foster even closer ties with neighboring Iran and its Shiite
theocracy.
The strategy is based in part on al-Sadr's belief that Washington will soon
start pulling out troops or draw them down significantly, leaving behind a huge
hole in Iraq's security and political power structure, al-Sadr's associates
said.
Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi told reporters Monday that Iraq's
military is drawing up plans in case U.S.-led forces leave the country quickly.
"The army plans on the basis of a worst-case scenario so as not to allow any
security vacuum," al-Obeidi said. "There are meetings with political leaders on
how we can deal with a sudden pullout."
It was unclear whether al-Obeidi was referring to routine contingency planning,
or if his remarks reflected a new realization among Iraqi leaders that the days
of American support may be numbered.
Al-Sadr also believes, his associates said, that Shiite Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki's government may not last much longer, given its failure to improve
security, services and the economy. A government collapse is certain to be
followed by a political realignment in which the Sadrist movement stands a good
chance of emerging as the main player. Al-Sadr's loyalists have 30 of
parliament's 275 seats.
The six lawmakers and aides spoke to the AP in separate interviews over the past
week. Several agreed to speak of the movement's future only on condition of
anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss strategy with outsiders.
They stuck to broad outlines, declining to be drawn into specifics.
"We gave the government a historic opportunity, but al-Maliki did not use it and
that's why we are preparing for a state led by the Sadrist movement," said an
al-Sadr political aide who is among those who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"An Islamic state led by the Sadrists is our future," he said.
The impact of such a plan - if implemented - would be far reaching.
An Iraq with ultra-radical Sadrist Shiites holding dominant power would seek to
curb U.S. influence and bolster the influence of clergy-ruled Iran throughout
Iraq and possibly outside its borders in the Sunni Arab heartlands of Saudi
Arabia, Syria and Jordan.
It also could deepen the Shiite-Sunni divide and unleash a wave of Shiite
militancy with offshoots joining forces with like-minded groups, such as
Lebanon's Hezbollah.
Al-Sadr is said by U.S. officials to have been in Iran since he dropped out of
sight some three months ago and is widely believed to be increasingly relying on
Iran as the main sponsor of his movement.
After weeks of claiming the cleric was back in the Iraqi holy city of Najaf, his
backers now concede al-Sadr is, in fact, in Iran.
"Without Iran, the U.S. can crush the Sadrist movement," said Vali Nasr, a
prominent U.S.-based expert on Shiite affairs. "When you have 50,000 to 60,000
fighters, you need a sponsor like Iran," said Nasr, alluding to the reported
strength of the Mahdi Army.
Moving closer to Iran now would be a timely tactic since Tehran's main Iraqi
client, the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, is widely thought to have forged
closer ties with the United States and used a key party conference this month to
adopt a new creed stating its commitment to Western values like human rights and
democratic rule.
The Supreme Council's leader, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, has been diagnosed with lung
cancer and is in Iran for chemotherapy treatment. His illness removes from the
scene, at least temporarily, a major al-Sadr rival.
Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militiamen have frequently fought with the Council's own
private army - the Badr Brigade - in southern Iraq, an oil-rich region where the
two groups compete for dominance.
A preview of a Sadrist-led Iraq can be found in Sadr City, a crowded Baghdad
district where some 2.5 million Shiites live under the virtual governance of the
Sadrists and the Mahdi Army.
Islamic Sharia courts operate freely in the neighborhood. Girls as young as 7
are forced to wear the Muslim veil. Stores selling alcohol have been forcibly
shut. Religious punishments, like flogging those who violate Islam's ban on
alcohol, are routine.
"We want an Islamic system," said Nassar al-Rubaie, a Sadrist lawmaker. "We want
a presidential system that will produce someone with a power similar to that of
a Muslim caliph."
Much of the Sadrists' resolve to create an Islamic society, according to the
lawmakers and aides, has to do with the movement's strong messianic convictions.
In Shiite terms, this translates into making society sufficiently pure for the
return of the so-called Hidden Imam, a descendant of Islam's Prophet Muhammad
who disappeared as a child in the 9th century. Shiites believe he will return
one day to bring justice to Earth.
"The hidden imam is our savior," said Amer al-Husseini, a cleric and a senior
aide to al-Sadr in Baghdad. "We need to prepare for his return, both
ideologically and practically."
To that end, al-Sadr yanked his five ministers from al-Maliki's unpopular
government last month and ordered his Mahdi Army militia to go underground while
the U.S. military stages what is likely to be its last major bid to quiet the
capital.
Sadrist lawmakers, meanwhile, are pushing to have parliament adopt a decision
demanding a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S.-led foreign troops.
Al-Sadr, from his Iranian exile, also has made overtures to the once-dominant
Sunni Arabs of Iraq.
On Tuesday, Sadrist lawmakers met with Sunni Arab tribal leaders leading a fight
against militants from al-Qaida in Iraq in the western Anbar province. In a
joint statement, the two sides called for local elections to be held soon and
for Iraq's rival political blocs to rise above their differences.
"We believe that the Sadrist movement is an independent and nationalist movement
that we are ready to cooperate with," said Omar Abdul-Sattar, a lawmaker from
the Iraqi Islamic Party, the nation's largest Sunni group.
But a Sadrist-led push to introduce a strict version of Islam in Iraq would be a
bitter pill to swallow for Sunnis who account for about 40 percent of the
population. Most Sunnis - Arab and Kurd alike - disapprove of the dominant role
by the clergy in Shiism and view some Shiite rituals, like self-flagellation, as
idolatry.
Nor is the Sadrist theology especially popular among other Shiites in Iraq.
Shiites living in areas under Mahdi Army control often complain of the
heavy-handedness of the militiamen in enforcing Islamic tenets but grudgingly
accept their sway because they see them doing a better job than security forces
in protecting their neighborhoods from attacks by Sunni militants.
Nevertheless, Sadrist lawmakers Ghofran al-Saadi and Saleh al-Aujaili said the
movement plans to vigorously contest the next local elections to wrest control
of provincial councils from rival Shiite groups that benefited from the
Sadrists' decision not to take part in the January 2005 vote. The Sadrists
fielded candidates only in the parliamentary part of the election.
Holding local elections is one of several policy benchmarks that Washington
wants al-Maliki's government to meet to ensure continued U.S. support, but no
date has been set yet.
"We have a huge popular base and we are not going to let that go to waste,"
al-Saadi said. "We have a duty to meet the aspirations of our supporters."
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