Sic Semper Tyrannis

The Economic Zoo 2024 By Walrus.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the American Economic Zoo. This season we mark the retirement of our great leader and founder, President Trump whose tariff protection initiatives starting in 2018 made all our new exhibits possible. So let me introduce you to the new examples of Homo Americanus Economicus for your delectation… 

Our first new exhibit is a new species of genus Economicus Bureaucraticus; sub species Sanctionis. We are reliably informed that they now number in the tens of thousands around Washington where they nest in Federal buildings and of course feed off the taxpayer. Once a threatened species due to the depredations of free trade, President Trumps protectionist trade wars have enlarged the swamps they inhabit and naturally they have proliferated very nicely. 

The defining characteristic of the species is an almost superhuman ability to categorize goods and services into the infinite sub categories called for in trade regulations. For example European steel is subject to sanctions, except surgical stainless steel for medical purposes, yet whole groups of Sanctionis, sometimes 200 or more, will spend an entire summer arguing, dancing and fighting among themselves over whether the definition of the word “surgical” includes steel for razor blades and whether “Medical purposes” should includes preoperative shaving of certain parts of the anatomy but not facial hair. Tens of thousands of pages of federal regulations are thus generated which has been a great boon to the paper industry. The effect on the economy has been calming since it now takes an importer over two years to navigate the sanctions and import goods. Watch what happens when I prod one; it immediately starts typing a new regulation. If you really want to see a feeding frenzy, ask them the difference between a metal ‘tube” and an “extrusion”. 

Our next new exhibit, I confess is only a model because we cannot find a specimen. It appears that almost the entire species of Americanus Genius Inventorus has migrated overseas. This species and its symbiotic partner venturus capitalismus seem to find it too hard to breed in America these days. The problems are multifaceted. Members of the species now find migration too difficult if they have funny sounding names and relatives in places like (excuse the profanity) Iran. Then there is the question of intellectual property flows – we let good ideas in, but won’t let them out. Then there are sanctions which restrict who they can sell to, tariff walls and quotas all of which make it just too hard to breed good products and then of course there is the problem posed by our next exhibit Lazy Industrialis.

Lazy Industrialis is a proliferating species, it has overtaken Americanus Industrialis almost everywhere. Its defining behaviour is just to sit in its lair, fat and happy, waiting for prey to walk by. It no longer needs to work or invest to build a better or cheaper product to attract prey because, thanks to President Trumps 25% tariffs, the prey are simply herded into its jaws. It is a lazy beast, rather like a stonefish – butt ugly, a bad employer, a non investor and a lazy manager and is not receptive to the new ideas produced by Inventorus. It just continues to lie in its lair, producing the same old crud from old factories full of old ideas because it can, as long as it is protected by the warm blanket of tariffs. When I prod this species with a stick, it cries to Congress for more industry protection. 

Trumps Trade Wars by Walrus.

President Trump is allegedly going to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum next week. When the European Union questioned his wisdom in doing this, he doubled down by threatening to impose tariffs on European car imports. He is also alleged to have said "trade wars are easy to win". This is madness and ultimately bad for America. The President seems fixated on trade imbalances and sees an easy and wrong solution to the American trade deficit which last year was 566 billion dollars. His take on this is that "its not fair" that America can't export more - the cause of the deficit is those dastardly furriners  are conspiring against American industry. This is childish.

I will not go into detail about specifics of the product mismatches between America and the rest of the world that are part of the export problem, anyone who has ever been to say, London or Amsterdam would know that a Dodge Ram would be entirely out of place. My main observation, based on a lifetime of experience with manufacturers facing international competition, is that tariffs are an addictive drug for lazy and incompetent business management, featherbedding unionists and bad government. All tariffs do is put off the day when the toxic combination of bad management, lack of investment, poor work practices, rotten infrastructure, overpriced energy, excessive regulation and bad government become too much of a cost for the community to bear.

To put that another way, if you are working for a manufacturing company that is internationally competitive and well run, how would you like it if your raw materials, Steel and Aluminum, suddenly became 25% more expensive next week? ...  And all to protect some lazy SOB down the road who hasn't invested in his plant for thirty years? Then there is the question of foreign retaliation.

The correct response to a trade imbalance is to find out why your product isn't selling and fix it. For example American cars are oversized gas guzzlers in the eyes of the rest of the world, that is why they don't sell, but nobody in Detroit seems to want to make what the rest of the world wants, instead they cry to uncle Donald.

Ultimately, Trumpian tariffs will hurt the internationally competitive sectors of American industry while merely postponing the day when the uncompetitive sectors must modernize or go under...and the result is always a net loss of jobs. 

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-trade-deficit-causes-effects-trade-partners-3306276

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-tariffs-eu-cars-import-trade-war-a8238426.html 

"Simian Mutual Hostility" - A Short Note On North Korea By Walrus.

Colonel Lang aptly described the current situation vis a vis the leaders of North Korea and the United States as one of "Simian Mutual Hostility" and offered his opinion that there is little chance of avoiding war.

On 23rd September the U.S. Airforce flew a bomber mission, in international airspace, closer to North Korea than ever before in "the 21st century". North Korea has responded, allegedly calling this event an Act Of War and threatening to shoot down American aircraft, even in international airspace if it happens again.

I am now of the opinion that we are, at best, one miscalculation away from the collapse of the Korean Armistice. 

Our best hope is that President Trump is much better informed on North Korea than anyone thinks and that his jibe at Kim Jong Un, labelling him "Rocket Man", is a carefully calculated master stroke of foreign policy. My own opinion is that it isn't.

Word matter and President Trump is an expert wordsmith. Despite what some people might think, his characterizations like "Lyin' Ted Cruz", "Crooked Hillary", etc. , struck deep into the subconscious of the American public where they sat and festered, likewise his tweets. "Rocket Man" is no idle jibe coming from such and experienced practitioner, what is Trump thinking?

Was the "Rocket Man" reference intended solely for a domestic audience? Hardly. Is it going to change the worlds perception of Kim in ways beneficial to America? I don't think so. It looks to me like a direct challenge, from an older man to a younger, to put up or shut up. It may be that President Trump is counting on this insult plus continued military pressure to trigger a North Korean coup. If not, then the ball is now in North Korea's court. Kim Jong Un has to respond. I do not think we will have long to wait. What say members of SST?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-asserts-its-right-to-shoot-down-us-bombers/2017/09/25/74da66c4-a204-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.6e385755a80b

 

The Great illusion By Walrus

The conclusion of Norman Angells 1909 book "The Great Illusion" was that since Western economies were so intertwined in trade, that war between major western powers was futile, in that the disruption of trade would be so ruinous that war could not lead to sustained economic advantage. Angells conclusion is frequently unfairly misquoted as stating that "war between European powers is impossible" - which World War I emphatically proved was mere wishful thinking. I wonder if the ghost of Angells' acolytes are walking the corridors of Washington at telling President Trump and lawmakers that a confrontation with Russia over Syria is impossible. I disagree with the wormtongues, this could end in general war.

Firstly, the uncritical, willing, acceptance by western governments of the truth of what was obviously a false flag gas attack suggests to me that the Borg is serious this time. Americas allies know it. No equivocation is going to go unpunished. I saw this attitude once before in the lead up to the invasion of Iraq. We knew about two months in advance that the game was afoot, long before President Bush publicly announced his decision to invade. Then  there is President Trumps ominous suggestion that he isn't finished with Syria yet.

I think President Trump is under pressure to "maintain the momentum" for a resolution of the Syrian civil war that he is being told his airstrike last week created. I believe, without evidence, that this will be followed next week by the announcement of "a safe zone" in Idlib province that is going to be guaranteed almost immediately by the presence of a force of coalition troops and accompanied by a "no fly zone". I suspect this has already been decided. Turkey would have to be involved if only from a logistics perspective.

I do not believe Assad or Putin is going to accept what in effect is going to be a permanent partition of Syria. The fallout from such an event would be the weakening of the Syrian Governments ability to resist Israeli incursions along its souther borders as Israel attempts to outflank Hezbollah. From Putins perspective, an R2P based incursion into Syria would scuttle his hopes for a return to a world order based on existing international law. Russia would then have to accept her position as a vassal state - something Putin is not going to agree to, however the grand illusionists believe Putin is just another crummy politician who will back down in the face of a barrage of tomahawks.

The only alternative I can think of is the one Col.. Lang has been pleading for. for weeks - for Russia and Syria to get boots on the ground in Idlib right now and roll the Jihadis up. Next week is going to be too late. The race into Idlib has started. Is there a Russian air mobile brigade available? Whoever is first into Idlib is going to determine the course of history for some time to come. 

Smoke By Walrus

It is a dry autumn here at the farm and the air is full of smoke from controlled burns of the forests around us. From about 1830, Sea captains regularly reported thick smoke as they tried to close the Victorian coast in autumn. The Australian aborigines actively managed their tribal lands with fire – burning off the undergrowth to stimulate spring grasses that attract kangaroos and make it easier to hunt. The whole region was burnt out in a patchwork about every five years. These were “cool bushfires” because the fuel load on the ground was never allowed to accumulate too much. The Aboriginals sometimes even apologized to explorers for the state of the underbrush in unburned country, the way your neighbor today apologises for his unkempt lawn.

However, by the 1960’s we knew better. Green environmental activists backed by their academic supporters declared the Australian forests were “sensitive”, “pristine” "Threatened" and “fragile”. Burning was of course immediately stopped. Four wheel drives and horse touring banned, camping restricted and, cattle grazing of the high plains prohibited. The bush was to be a shrine to nature, ministered to by bushwalker acolytes whose tiny footprints left no marks. The great unwashed, campers, drivers, loggers, etc. were to be kept at a respectful distance.

One Hundred and Seventy Three people died in the bushfires that raged around Melbourne on 7th February 2009 as a direct result of the “no burn” policy of this “pristine” wilderness.. When blame was sheeted home to a lack of regular burning and a new policy announced, the greens announced that they would support it – provided the burning strategy was ‘sensitive” and “nuanced”. I almost threw up when I heard him. One Hundred and Seventy Three lives.

Today I hear about an alleged chemical attack in Syria. More smoke. No doubt President Trump is going to be pressured to apply a sensitive and nuanced no fly zone over Idlib province – for the children of course. The same type of useful idiots who corrupted our forest management policy are at work here – believers in the essential goodness of everyone, the same way they believed that nature is a weak virgin instead of a tough old bitch. They refuse to believe that human beings are not perfectible and that goes double for the jihadi inhabitants of Idlib. How many lives will be lost if the Russians, Syrians and Iranians refuse to accept our benevolent strictures?

Of course I am being charitable when I say “useful idiots”. Having worked in Academia, I know there is no cause that won’t be taken up, no point of view so extreme that an academic or two cannot be found to give it a gloss of scholarly imprimatur if sufficient money is offered. And that goes double again for think tanks. The net result of the last Thirty years of useful idiots work was summarized beautifully when Francis Fukuyama declared “the end of history” after the fall of the soviet union – meaning that market driven liberal democracy was the final highest state of humanity and we had just achieved it.

What has happened since should have had a salutary effect on the useful idiots beliefs; the abject failure of “responsibility to protect” wars, the fallout from globalization in terms of unemployment as evidenced by Brexit and the election of president Trump, the scandals over tax evasion by multinational corporations not to mention the mess that is illegal immigration in Europe and America, should have given the useful idiots pause for thought. Maybe not everyone wants to be an American. Maybe globalization has a downside and maybe, just maybe, humans are not perfectible? I am driven to compare the situation of todays useful idiots with their compatriots in Oxford and Cambridge around 1860. Up to then religious belief was taken as a given. It was an organizing principle behind philosophy economics and public policy. Academia was very happy with this situation. If you wanted to know what you ought to do, look no further than the bible for principles. Then Darwin published “On The Origin Of Species” and what followed was the removal of religion as an organizing principle and total collapse of established philosophical positions, culminating in the great war.

So where does that leave us today? The globalists / R2Pers are in disbelief at the election of President Trump, Brexit and perhaps the election in France of Marine le Pen. They are pushing back, generating lots of smoke, but will fail. It has become obvious that globalization has losers as well as winners and the losers can still perhaps vote against their destruction. The philosophical basis of globalization does not sufficiently allow for rampant corporate tax evasion nor the destabilizing effects it has had on national sovereignty to the point where the Westphalian principles are under attack. So much for “progress”.

Then of course there are the upcoming shocks to ordinary workers of Artificial Intelligence, robotics and other new technologies. I have just witnessed some of this first hand, the poor bastards who came to install my satellite internet service had to document and photograph every step of the process on their iPad – leading of course to a set of performance metrics. The latest from Sweden of all places is the injection of employees with RFID chips. Given the greed and short term focus of Wall Street and the aforesaid developing tools for micromanagement of staff, it is not too hard to speculate what life as an employee of a corporation is going to be like in say Five years time. We simply do not have the philosophical tools to construct a rational and humane set of philosophies and policies to manage this. The doctrine of “progress” has failed us. Clearly, at least to me, a major philosophical rethink of our existence is required. Even Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan has recently said “something is wrong”. To be clear, if there is not a rethink of the directions we are heading then Orwells prediction - a boot grinding the face of humanity, forever, will come true.

The doctrine of progress – the history of humanity as a journey to liberal democracy, as espoused by Fukuyama and even Hillary Clinton, is fatally flawed. The old world is dead, the new one is powerless to be born. We need a new debate over philosophical directions. Religion has failed us. The doctrine of “progress” leads to a dead end. Nationalism is a dangerous concept. We need to rethink ourselves before we are overtaken by events. I await the first academics and university to realise what has happened and start reappraising the situation, I think they will be richly rewarded 

Dangerous Memes By Walrus.

The "Birther" meme attached to President Obama was a cleverly crafted and slimy attempt to derail his Presidential campaign. While it developed a life of its own after his inauguration it never was going to be a call to action by patriots. The Trump - Russia meme in my opinion is a much more serious information operation because it is designed to question the legitimacy of a President Trump defence and foreign policy actions.

To put that another way, this IO is not political point scoring, its attempting to influence U.S. foreign and defence policy in a very direct way - precluding a whole raft of policy options related to normalizing relations with Russia, winding back NATO expansion and other areas that I don't even know about. I don't know if this is against the law or not.

CNN  has just led with a story that the intelligence community presented Trump with a dossier alleging five years work by the Russian Government to both compromise Trump and promote his presidential prospects and allege collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian Government. 

"....(CNN)Classified documents presented last week to President Obama and President-elect Trump included allegations that Russian operatives claim to have compromising personal and financial information about Mr. Trump, multiple US officials with direct knowledge of the briefings tell CNN.

The allegations were presented in a two-page synopsis that was appended to a report on Russian interference in the 2016 election. The allegations came, in part, from memos compiled by a former British intelligence operative, whose past work US intelligence officials consider credible. The FBI is investigating the credibility and accuracy of these allegations, which are based primarily on information from Russian sources, but has not confirmed many essential details in the memos about Mr. Trump...."

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/10/politics/donald-trump-intelligence-report-russia/index.html

 

Buzzfeed obligingly then leaks all 35 pages of the alleged "Memos" on which the summary is allegedly based, that go into scatalogical detail about Trump in Russia.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/kenbensinger/these-reports-allege-trump-has-deep-ties-to-russia?utm_term=.pkOOrazq7#.oc4JGA7v2

 

Folks, to me, it doesn't seem to me that American politics can get more surreal. I don't think I've seen more flaky conglomerations passing as intelligence summaries, ever..... and CNN apparently bought it,..... and the liberal media follow suit. Trump wanted to defile the bed that President Obama slept in at a hotel in Moscow, so he arranged a sex party???

The Alt right are now digging and it seems that at least the plot for that particular memo ( the sex party one) was fed by a prankster to one DNC operative Wilson, who appears to have run with it. CNN,  Fake News all of the time. 

I'm half a world away in opposite time zones, please tell us what your morning brings... It seems to me that a "Trump the Traitor" meme is a very dangerous creation.

A Christmas Carol? By Walrus.

I dreamt last night a wonderful dream. I was watching television and Hilary Clinton appeared and announced that she would not accept the office of President should , in her words, “the Electoral College be so misguided as to depart from settled precedent” and not elect Donald Trump. She then broke down in tears and apologized to the American people for the damage her campaign had caused to so many people and promised to devote the rest of her life to reforming the Democratic Party and the Clinton Foundation.

I was then transported to the Whitehouse where a jubilant President Trump, with the beaming leaders of both houses of Congress looking on, signed a campaign finance reform bill into law overturning the Citizens United decision and banning corporations from contributing to any political contest without the permission of the simple majority of their shareholders.

I then found myself in an elementary school listening to a English lesson, the teachers were teaching the children by rote learning I was transported to a high school examination hall and read a science paper, there were no multiple choice questions. I saw the teachers car park, it was full of new luxury cars – rewards for the teachers whose students scored the highest in simple written tests of basic English and mathematical literacy.

I went into a bar and the TV was showing “Cops” but the subjects of the police attention weren’t the usual black and white trailer trash, caught with a few drugs, laid out in their misery for our scorn, no, the subjects were white collar criminals, bankers, lawyers, Judges and similar officials – caught red handed taking bribes.

I rode on a new maglev train to a shopping mall. I looked for Christmas presents. There was no Chinese schlock for sale, the shelves were full of quality American made toys. The car park was full of American cars and someone told met hat they were now the most fuel efficient in the world and that export markets couldn’t get enough of them. I drove past a refinery. Over the gate was a slogan “Pollution is waste! It eats profits!” I noticed a warehouse and houses – their roofs covered in solar panels. I passed another factory, outside was a sign; workers wanted! Come on in!

I found myself at the Boeing plant at Everett where I hadn’t been for Thirty years. I watched a team fitting an engine to a B787; “most of us were academics” one told me ; “I was a social studies Professor, but this work pays better and is more satisfying than listening to whiners all day”.

I saw myself in Washington watching a beaming President Trump welcoming Vladimir Putin to the Whitehouse

Then I woke up.

The Counterattack Against President - Elect Trump By Walrus.

At least as I was taught and trained, it is standard military practice, on taking an enemy position, to immediately begin defensive preparations to receive an almost inevitable counterattack. I hope for the sake of America, that President - Elect Trump and his team have made the adequate preparations for the counterattack because in my opinion the Hilary backers are now upon them.

I refer to Four events; Two are courtesy of the Washington Post and obviously made with the approval of its owner.

The first was the denigration by the Washington Post of websites not sympathetic enough to the Clinton candidacy as "Fake News" - deliberate Russian propaganda in favour of Trump. The article was written around the construct of a list of 200 websites that are labelled as either Russian propaganda outlets or Lenins "useful Idiots" who repeat propaganda without checking. In support of this attack were some media moguls who joined in. This suggests to me that the "cure" for "fake news" under a Clinton regime might be an attack on free speech. There are numerous articles on the web dissecting this story.

Then we have Jill Steins petition for a Wisconsin recount - apparently funded very adequately by public subscription to the tune of several million dollars.

Then we have a statement by Hilarys lawyer that the Clinton DNC team will participate in the recount although according to the spokesman the decision was made in sorrow rather than anger as not much is expected to change. 

Then today we have a Washington Post op-ed by Lawrence Lessig calling for the Electoral College not to elect Trump:

"Conventional wisdom tells us that the electoral college requires that the person who lost the popular vote this year must nonetheless become our president. That view is an insult to our framers. It is compelled by nothing in our Constitution. It should be rejected by anyone with any understanding of our democratic traditions  — most important, the electors themselves.......

.......if the electoral college is to control who becomes our president, we should take it seriously by understanding its purpose precisely. It is not meant to deny a reasonable judgment by the people. It is meant to be a circuit breaker — just in case the people go crazy."

The obvious implication is that crazy people voted for Trump and sane people voted for Clinton.

In my opinion, it may be possible to dismiss these events as just a little rabble rousing to improve newspaper circulation prior to the inauguration (will Trump get elected???) - at which point the media focus again changes (now what will President Trump do????). Conversely, this may be a structured attempt to put Clinton on the throne, in which case all hell breaks loose.

I also note that in the UK. Tony Blair has lifted the lid of his casket and again stalks the streets of London aiming to reverse Brexit. Do we see a pattern here? International elites none too happy with revolting peasants on both sides of the Atlantic?

I leave it to the committee to discuss what we are seeing here. I guess it stands to reason that if Trump really plans to "drain the swamp" there are going to be a lot of alligators after him. What comes next I know not. 

The Race That Stops A Nation By Walrus.

"The Race That Stops A Nation" isn't describing the Presidential race, its the Moniker of The Melbourne Cup, a horse race first held in 1861 on the first Tuesday in November. Cup Day is a state holiday and most people try and make it into a long weekend as the seemingly endless stream of SUVs towing boats and camper trailers past our front gate on Friday afternoon attested. Cup day is a day when non gamblers have a bet on the horses and non drinkers can be seen with a glass of champagne. Right across Victoria people hold parties and dress up in their Sunday best, praying that our spring weather won't collapse back into winter. Most of the rest of the country will stop to listen to the race, such is the interest, my father told me ,that during WWII Australian Army signals nets in the Pacific overloaded on race day and urgent operational traffic couldn't get through. 

This year we enjoyed ourselves in a week long series of parties and revels that concluded yesterday which I think we thoroughly deserved after a winter of chemotherapy, mastectomy, radiotherapy and the wettest winter since 1905. We are now forswearing alcohol for a month and preparing for what lies ahead. For my partner it is a breast reconstruction now that her cancer appears to be in remittance. For me, it is farm work to make up for the time lost in endless hospital waiting rooms and doctors offices. It is not all bleak. I am now a grandfather to a baby girl who is cute as a button and I await the future with hope rather than sinful despair.

Part of that hope is the possibility that an end may be in sight for Americas self inflicted woes, but we shall see on Tuesday. I attach a link to John Michael Greers summary of the situation - that Trump at least offers hope of principled change for the better while Clinton does not seem to offer anything new. 

"..Donald Trump, by contrast, has been arguing against several core elements of that consensus since the beginning of his run for office. Specifically, he’s calling for a reversal of federal policies that support offshoring of jobs, the enforcement of US immigration law, and a less rigidly confrontational stance toward Russia over the war in Syria. It’s been popular all through the current campaign for Clinton’s supporters to insist that nobody actually cares about these issues, and that Trump’s supporters must by definition be motivated by hateful values instead, but that rhetorical gimmick has been a standard thoughstopper on the left for many years now, and it simply won’t wash. The reason why Trump was able to sweep aside the other GOP candidates, and has a shot at winning next week’s election despite the unanimous opposition of this nation’s political class, is that he’s the first presidential candidate in a generation to admit that the issues just mentioned actually matter. "

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=27481991&postID=7523666433928129090

Soros Leaks - Intelligence In Action - By Walrus.

Looking through a few documents allegedly from the Soros Open Society Initiative leaked by website Dcleaks, I noticed what I think is a pretty good illustration of an intelligence/PR appreciation, or analysis of the German news media and the German publics attitude to the Ukranian situation, at least as portrayed by the author.

I was intrigued enough to post the link in the hope that SST readers might like to comment both on its contents and crafting. The only conclusion I can draw from its content is that the intentions of OSI towards Russia are not benign.

 

http://soros.dcleaks.com/download/?f=/Ukraine%20and%20Europe/germany/osf%20draft.rtf&t=europe

Madeleine Albright Unhinged Nutcase? By Walrus.

Madeleine Albright is alleged to have said on Friday on CNN of Hilary Clintons alleged use of an unsecured private server for her official email that:

"She has said she made a mistake, and nobody is going to die as a result of anything that happened on emails."

I personally find this to be the most breathtaking stupidity and I would hope it is the result of old age or dementia rather than the considered opinion of a former Secretary Of State. Mrs. Albright is in no position to know if "nobody is going to die" from accidental disclosure of confidential information and it remains a very real possibility that sources have been compromised with potentially fatal results. What sources we do have in foreign governments must be terrified that an inadvertent slip by Hilary in a published email will reveal them.

You can bet that every intelligence service in the world, including friends and allies of the United States, are analysing every Clinton official email they can get their hands on, looking for a potential leak in their own security…..and they will be looking backwards a very long time. I do not think I even need to provide examples, but Venona, Krivitsky, Petrov and God knows who else set trains of investigation in motion over decades.

 http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/madeleine-albright-clinton-email-223861

As for Albrights comments on "Russian aggression" my response is unprintable. Perhaps the most likeable comment I have seen is "How dare Russia move her country so close to our NATO bases!".

The View From The Farm By Walrus.

On February 15 2015 I posted “a View From The Farm” on SST explaining that I had just moved to the country from the city and opining about what I saw happening to American foreign policy at the time. This is an update, I would have posted more earlier except for one reason I will explain later.

But first, the farm. Since this is the Third country place I’ve owned and I’m getting older; I subscribe to the dictum “”If there is a power tool for the job, then buy one”. First purchase was a little Kubota diesel tractor with digger and loader attachments. This is a perfect choice for me, everything is balanced and works nicely. I then found out why – it’s optimized for cemetery work – digging and filling graves. That was followed by ride on mower, a new chainsaw and unpacking all my tools, my friends, that had remained in storage for about Ten years..

So armed, I commenced the task of, as I thought. “tidying a few things up”. This has, naturally, involved considerable expense. In order to keep my partner happy and productive, this has so far included: replacing the less than tasteful blue vinyl kitchen benchtops with solid timber along with the stove, sink, dishwasher, wood heater and hot water system. After that I’ve added solar hot water and a nine kilowatt solar electricity system.

In the garden. I removed Nine Cyprus pines that in my opinion had been strategically placed to incinerate the house in the event of a bushfire. We then started on cleaning up the pool and tennis court and began to construct a vegetable garden, about the same size as the tennis court, with raised beds and suitable fencing to keep out the kangaroos and wombats. We have some help in all of this from the Three sons and daughters in law we have between us and we have Four spare bedrooms just in case.

Ah yes! The wild life. We decided not to buy cattle last Spring as they were expensive and we had a very dry season with not much feed. However we are home to a permanent group of about Twenty Eastern Gray Kangaroos on our place although numbers fluctuate. I can see them grazing as I write this. Then there are the wombats who are inoffensive – provided they don’t decide to dig under your house. They are stubborn animals. Then there are Red, Fallow and Sambur deer who visit us in groups of around Five to Ten most mornings. As for the birds that visit our bird table; Cockatoos, Magpies, Rosellas and my especial favorite the King Parrots some of which I can feed by hand.

All in all a desirable location and retreat. We have a snow fed river on our boundary, so we have pumping rights for our gardens. That has proved vital because we had a very dry spring and all our new garden plantings were at risk. We have great neighbors. We help each other and enjoy their company, well almost all of them. We have one “miss crabby face” schoolteacher near us who complains to the council about all of us at the slightest opportunity, my turn came one Saturday when I was zeroing the .308 and the .223 and she called the police telling them I was massacring wombats!

However so much for domestic bliss.

Then on 24^th February 2016 my partner was diagnosed with breast cancer. Quite advanced,   but hopefully successfully treatable. Some SST members may remember my late partner died of cancer so I have some skills, I hope, in supporting her through the treatment and surgery that lies ahead of us. One comfort is that the pair of us are covered by platinum level medical insurance for the princely sum of about Six thousand dollars a year, and my partner and I are both satisfied that she is getting the best care from a top flight team of surgeons and oncologists in a perfect setting. Our friends and neighbors are supportive.

. “If you want God to laugh, tell him your plans” is the Jewish saying. so now everything is on hold and we live one day at a time. This years trip to Europe, already booked, is cancelled. I guess it just goes to show that at our age we need to be conscious that one day all this merriment is going to end. Hopefully for SST members and our leader Col. Lang, not before we see some resolution to the mess that is American middle east policy. My personal hope is that Donald Trump becomes President and uses his undoubted business skills to clean out the Washington stables.  I guess to make a positive observation, things are so bad in foreign and domestic policy these days that there are many and obvious areas for improvement in the economy and society generally if only the legions of politically correct commissars can be ejected from their cosy positions.

ISIS Recruiting Operations In Indonesia By Walrus.

The Australian ABC has allegedly obtained video (link below) of an ISIS recruiter; cleric Syamsudin Uba, peddling his wares at a mosque in Jakarta, Indonesia, to what is believed to be potential ISIS recruits:

"They declare that territory as Islamic State where God's law is upheld fully and where there isn't any intimidation from foreign countries……….

…….And based on their sacrifice of their blood and wealth they declare an Islamic State…...

…...Even though the infidels wouldn't acknowledge it (an Islamic state), even though the United Nations wouldn't acknowledge it……..

…………………….Muslims don't need that, Muslims only want the blessing from God, in a state where the laws of God are implemented fully. Even when the infidels don't like it……………..

……...When you get there soon, God willing, you won't have to pay rent, you don't have electricity and water bills," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-22/islamic-state-supporters-run-recruitment-drive-at-jakarta-mosque/7188058

 

++++++++

 

Comment: Indonesia is the most populous (about 200 milllion) Muslim state in the world. Its stated national philosophy is "pankasila"the five principles:

Belief in the one and only God .
Just and civilised humanity. 
The unity of Indonesia. 
Democracy guided by the inner wisdom in the unanimity arising out of deliberations amongst representatives. 
Social justice for all of the people of Indonesia.

As a general rule Indonesia is a pretty, relaxed, place.  There are important nationalist considerations, but there is no direct linkage between Islam and a national agenda. The "one God" principle requires that Christians, Muslims and Jews, Animists, etc. co - exist. As you can  no doubt imagine Saudi Wahabists have been trying to gain a larger foothold in the country for at least Thirty years via the usual route of charities and schools. I am not privy to the counter efforts made by the West, if any.

Indonesia controls the Straits of Malacca as well as the deep water channels between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea so its radicalisation, let alone possible tolerance of ISIS operations) would not be just a regional nightmare.

One hopes that the Indonesian Government, perhaps assisted by its many Western friends, pushes back against Wahabist ideology wherever it is found and ensures that ISIS does not get a hold in the region

As for potential Indonesian recruits to ISIS, I guess the best message we could send is some graphics of what is in store for them at the hands of the R+6. 

US demands Russia stop bombing Syria's opposition. By Walrus.

"US Secretary of State John Kerry has demanded Russia stop bombing the Syrian opposition, implicitly blaming Moscow for the collapse in peace talks……………..

………….Mr Kerry also said that both parties to the conflict — the rebels and the regime and its allies — must allow access to besieged areas for humanitarian aid.

Nearly 40,000 Syrian civilians have fled the latest regime offensive backed by Russian air strikes near Aleppo, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The exodus began on Monday after government forces began an operation that has severed the main rebel supply route into the city and broke an opposition siege on two regime-held towns………….." 

Erdogan is also quoted in the article:

Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said the peace talks in Geneva were "pointless" while Russia and the Assad regime continued attacks in the country.

"Russia continues to kill people in Syria. Could there be such a peace gathering? Could there be such peace talks?" Mr Erdogan said in a speech in Peru, in comments published on the presidency website…………...

……..In an environment where children are still being killed, such attempts do not have any function apart from making things easier for the tyrant," he said……."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/us-demands-russia-stop-syria-bombing-after-talks-suspended/7142104

 

+++++++++

 

It appears to me that Kerry and Erdogan now realise that the latest Syrian offensive signals the beginning of the end for their fictional moderate, democratic rebels who are not really jihadists, just misunderstood. 

The Peace talks? They remind me of Napoleon III trying to "negotiate" with Moltke and Bismarck after the French were defeated at Sedan. What cards do the rebels have to play - "The gratitude of the Syrian people?".

What Kerry and Erdogan are now probably doing is contemplating  what  a reunified, jihadist free, Syria is going to look like along with a resurgent, sorry, I mean "emboldened", Russia, Hezbollah and Iran. My opinion is that they are going to remake the Middle East to the detriment of Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The question then becomes whether Turkey and the U.S. are going to permit that. There are suggestions on another thread that Turkey may try to take military action in Syria under the "responsibility to protect" mantra. I do not see that as a winning military strategy unless the U.S. and NATO can be prevailed upon to support such a venture. Are we stupid enough to do that? 

The Petreaus Case….And Clinton? By Walrus

The Washington Post has just published an article about the conduct of the Petraeus Case - and how a plea deal was reached, for better or worse. I wonder if it gives us any insights as to how Clinton will be treated?

The last paragraphs:

"Holder, who was planning to leave office and didn’t want to leave the case for the next attorney general, approved the settlement. Holder declined to comment. But he offered this explanation for his decision at a media event last year when asked if there was a double standard that allowed Petraeus to plead to a misdemeanor when his department had zealously pursued others for similar alleged crimes.

“There were factors that made the resolution of the case appropriate,” he said. “There were some unique things that existed in that case that would have made the prosecution at the felony level and a conviction at the felony level very, very, very problematic.”  Walrus

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-david-petraeus-avoided-felony-charges-and-possible-prison-time/2016/01/25/d77628dc-bfab-11e5-83d4-42e3bceea902_story.html

Syria After The Destruction of ISIS - By Walrus

While the usual disclaimers apply including the fact that I am no military or political expert, I wonder if it would be useful for SST members to consider what a Syria reborn after the demise of ISIS might decide to become? I also wonder what the Geopolitical fallout of victory over ISIS might be?

Taking the Geopolitical issue first, I am  assuming that the successful Russian intervention destroys Washingtons "Monopolar worldview"  as it should if we are to avoid nuclear war and that the rebuilding of Syria occurs in an environment of intense competition for influence among "Great Powers (™)" Europe, America, China and Russia.

The latter Two have the front running.  The R2P people in D.C. are completely discredited because they not only instigated the war but prolonged it. I fail to see therefore , absent a Pauline conversion, how  they can claim any role in Syrian reconstruction. To put that another way, I don't see an American reincarnation of Noel Annan dragging a Conrad Adenauer out of the rubble and promoting him as "their man". Europe? Well they have simple done Washingtons bidding.

Russia in my opinion, stands to gain most - a warm water naval base, perhaps an air base - vengeance for President Obamas "Regional Power" slur. Then of course there are the weapons sales. China? Well there is a lot of spare capacity in the Chinese economy at the moment that might usefully be used for the reconstruction of Syrian infrastructure. The Kurds? More winners.

Who are the losers? Turkey for One, at least under an  Erdogan Government. Then there are the Gulf states and the KSA who may wind up facing a united and battle hardened Shia crescent. Israel? Fast footwork may prevent any fall out. They have not (yet) tried to annex the Golan or attack into Lebanon although that might have been the intent had the Assad regime looked like losing.

As for Syria and the Syrian people themselves? I think we may have actually done some nation building here thereby proving the Walrus law - governments achieve the reverse of their stated objectives. My thinking is that winning a war like this is a transformational event for Syrian society. Notwithstanding the realities of Arab behaviour catalogued by Col. Lang, I think the shared experience of this war has the potential to bind Syrians in a national sense - perhaps giving some emotional realities to Sykes - Picot - not just lines on a map anymore, especially if Assad can be magnanimous in victory.

I will cease bloviating and ask you what you think the future might hold for Syria.

A Setup With American Help? By Walrus.

There are reports this morning that the Russians believe that the shooting down of their fighter aircraft by the Turkish Airforce was an ambush carried out with American complicity. At least one American Airforce commentator, on Fox News no less, agrees with them. My personal opinion is that we have not heard the last of this and if President Obama sanctioned such an  operation then the consequences for America are dire.

I am  not a military pilot but I know enough that air to air interceptions and shoot downs do not "just happen" considerable planning of fuel and ordnance loads are required. The Turkish aircraft were apparently "loitering with intent", the jihadists on the ground may also have been warned and President Putin believes the flight details for the intended Russian strike were leaked  or "shared" by America to Turkey from the deconfliction centre.

Putins comment:

"We told our US partners in advance where, when at what altitudes our pilots were going to operate. The US-led coalition, which includes Turkey, was aware of the time and place where our planes would operate. And this is exactly where and when we were attacked. Why did we share this information with the Americans? Either they don't control their allies, or they just pass this information left and right without realizing what the consequences of such actions might be. We will have to have a serious talk with our US partners."

 Russian allegations are covered by Zerohedge at the link below:

Russian Allegations.

The "Gaffe" by a former U.S. Airforce General on Fox News, agreeing with the Russians is here:

Pre Planned Attack. 

Obamas initial reaction to the shooting down is chilling:

"Hours after the Turkish shootdown of a Russian warplane along the Syria-Turkey border, U.S. President Barack Obama and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on the need to de-escalate tensions and prevent further incidents.

The White House, in a statement late Tuesday, said the two leaders conferred by phone and voiced their commitment to developing a transitional political process for peace in Syria and international support for defeating Islamic State extremists. The statement also reiterated U.S. support for Turkey's right to defend its airspace.

Earlier Tuesday, Obama, speaking in Washington, cited the downing of the Russian plane as evidence of an "ongoing problem" with Russia's military operations in Syria."

Folks in my opinion, this is Obamas "what could he possibly have been thinking?" moment.

Then there is the surfacing issue that the mainstream media is trying to avoid. The complicity of the U.S. and Turkey conniving to try to ensure that ISIS remains in being at least until the Assad regime is destroyed. In Turkey and Israels (and hence Americas) case, so that they can pick over the bones of Syria at their leisure. Then of course there is the Erdogan fils profitable oil trade with ISIS which is directly under threat from Russian air attacks.

My concern now is that Two narcissists, Presidents Obama and Erdogan, are going to drag us into WWIII.

Walrus 

"Barrel Bombs and Bullshit" by Walrus

Consortium News has published an article by Robert Parry entitled "Tangled Threads Of US False Narratives" about the outright misinformation preached by Washington regarding the Middle East and Russia. The article was retitled "Barrel Bombs and Bullshit" by the less than reverent Zerohedge.com. It is worth reading not because it confirms the SST accepted wisdom (The Borg) but because it examines the hypocrisy of the mainstream media in more detail. It also comes to the same conclusion; departing too far from reality in relations between nuclear armed States risks frying the plane

============

One way to view Official Washington is to envision a giant bubble that serves as a hothouse for growing genetically modified “group thinks.” Most inhabitants of the bubble praise these creations as glorious and beyond reproach, but a few dissenters note how strange and dangerous these products are. Those critics, however, are then banished from the bubble, leaving behind an evermore concentrated consensus.

This process could be almost comical – as the many armchair warriors repeat What Everyone Knows to Be True as self-justifying proof that more and more wars and confrontations are needed – but the United States is the most powerful nation on earth and its fallacious “group thinks” are spreading a widening arc of chaos and death around the globe.

========

Tangled Threads

========

In a less than joyful vein, I am sorry to announce that the good old Australian Broadcasting Commission (Public Radio) has also "drunk the Kool Aid". My morning coffee was soured by reading  this think piece  by a purported ABC Middle East correspondent blaming President Assad for the rise of IS - a classic R2P harpy if ver there was one.

 

"The Syrian conflict continues with no end in sight and as long as the West fails to act against the Assad government, Islamic State will continue to flourish, writes Middle East correspondent Sophie McNeill.

It is a war that has now lasted five years and killed a quarter of a million people, while 10 million have fled their homes.

This week, Syrian government warplanes dropped four rockets on a crowded marketplace in Douma, just outside the capital Damascus. killing over 100 people.

Just a few hours after the attack, I sat in the ABC Middle East bureau and watched camera phone footage of its immediate aftermath.

 

It was horrific. A desperate man rushed through the dust, carrying a bloodied child over his shoulder.

Dozens of dead bodies lay on the ground amongst blown out buildings and destroyed market stalls.

The children are the worst part. Their tiny bodies caught up in a horrific game the adults have been playing.

The United Nations said 111 civilians were killed in the airstrikes and at least 200 injured.

For its part, the Syrian military did not deny it had launched airstrikes on the town that day — it told news agencies they were targeting a rebel group called Islam army that has been staging rocket attacks on Damascus.

But there was no doubt this was a civilian target — a market. There was a surreal number of tomatoes strewn amongst the dead…….

……..Mr Assad's unpunished crimes in Syria have been, and continue to be, a huge recruitment tool for the terrorists.

They are fighting to overthrow Mr Assad's regime and every time he commits another massacre it is a PR win for them.

The video I watched, of the children killed in the market, was the same kind of video that has inspired many young foreign fighters to go and join IS…….".

Sophie has a conveniently short and highly selective memory.

These are the morons we are up against. Read it provided you can avoid vomiting.

Assad To Blame

 

 

"Pollard Released on Parole" - by Walrus.

The Associated Press is reporting the release on parole of Jonathan Pollard, Thirty years to the day after his conviction.

A few questions: Why was "parole" even available, given the severity of the offences?

Exactly which "New York investment firm" has given him a job in its finance department? Surely such an action signals to the country that every employee of the firm has unquestionable allegiance to Israel? There are prudential controls in most countries that prevent a convicted felon like Pollard from having anything to do with the management of other peoples money.

Does this event imply that on the basis of equity, other convicted spies should expect release after Thirty years?

How long before Pollard breaks his parole and is spirited to Israel?

What did we get in return, Mordechai Vanunu?

Pollard Released. 

Vanunu

 

"Capable Indigenous Forces?" - Oh Dear! By Walrus

"After struggling for years to identify groups in Syria that it can confidently support, the Obama administration on Friday abandoned its effort to build a rebel force inside Syria to combat the Islamic State. It acknowledged the failure of its $500 million campaign to train thousands of fighters and said whatever money remained would be used to provide lethal aid for groups already engaged in the battle.

Senior officials at the White House and the Pentagon said the strategy to pull fighters out of Syria, teach them advanced skills and return them to face the Islamic State had failed, in part because many of the rebel groups were more focused on fighting the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad.

But officials said they were trying to adapt their strategy by seeking to identify the leaders of “capable, indigenous forces” in Syria who — after what the officials described as a vigorous vetting process — will be the first time the Pentagon has given military equipment to rebel leaders to distribute to their forces engaged in fighting on the ground. The C.I.A. has for some time been covertly training and arming groups fighting Mr. Assad."

++++++++++

The New York Times is today reporting that the White House is changing what passes for its Syrian strategy "within days". Instead of training moderate jihadists, it is going to identify the leaders of moderate jihadist forces already on the ground in Syria and channel weaponry to the,  appropriately vetted of course, leaders of these groups.

To borrow Johnsons words; this seems to me yet again a case of the triumph of hope over experience. I can see the line of hopeful rebel leaders lining up at The State Department gate tomorrow, each with a slick powerpoint presentation on their size, organisation and capabilities, but inwardly dreaming about the villas they will build with the money they will make out of our stupidity.

Apart from the apparent admission of CIA involvement in toppling Assad, the rest of the alleged quotes pin this report sound straight out of a political science masters thesis:

- A "Flexible and adaptive" strategy.

- An "operational pause" translation: the Russians told us to butt out or else.

- "(basic) equipment packages and weapons to a select group of vetted leaders and their units so that over time….."

Lets get this straight. No person in their right mind is going to take our weapons and engage in a life and death struggle with the head choppers except the Assad regime forces and perhaps the Kurds  because they have no choice. When faced with the head choppers, "moderate" Syrian Sunni Muslims not invested in supporting the Assad regime, will either join ISIS or head for the border.  

New Syrian Strategy

Syrian Army Starts Offensive. by Walrus

Reuters is quoting Syrian Army Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Ali Abdullah Ayoub as saying  "wide ranging attacks" are being launched against a variety of terrorist groups, apparently starting Thursday.

Col. Lang  and TTG  predicted this. It will be technically interesting to observe. Would Patton and Jackson have approved? I suspect so if the offensive mirrors the speed of Russia's air offensive. I wonder if SST members might like to comment on this offensive as it develops.

Off topic, but the Reuters article is headed by a bizarre photograph of allegedly;

"A civil defence member gathers unexploded cluster bomblets that activists say were fired by the Russian air force at Maasran town, in the southern countryside of Idlib, Syria October 7, 2015.

REUTERS/KHALIL ASHAWI"

 

I find this rather hard to believe, since handling UX CBU's is generally regarded as a a form of suicide.

 

Syria starts offensive.

Good idea on the commentary.  Use this thread.  pl

 

The Future Of Saudi Arabia - Really? By Walrus

"…. the only rulers that the Saudis have known is the Saudi royal family. The country is divided along tribal, religious, gender and ethnic lines as a result of the regime’s “divide and conquer” policy and practice. The country is held together only by sheer force under the Saudi ruling family absolute rule.

The Saudi population, especially the younger people, are growing restless because they see what is happening in the world through social media of which they are among the highest users - that’s the only means they have to communicate. So the situation inside the country is also very fragile and the foreign policy conducted by the current regime is very perilous.

One can only hope that some of the more visionary and enlightened male and female royals will prevail in terms of replacing the current very outdated thinking regarding the population's growing needs and expectations. The Saudi people are directly affected by the root causes of the Arab Spring – which is irreversible, will continue and more likely will spill over to the Gulf States. It is only a matter of time because the Gulf States are ruled by oligarchies who maintain control through bribery and the sword."  Tavares

++++++

Dr. Ali Alyami appears to me a denizen of Washington think tanks focussed on Saudi Arabia. He has been interviewed on the subject of the future of Saudi Arabia, as he sees it, and it has been published on Linked In.

I lack the experience to evaluate his beliefs and I thought SST might be the appropriate forum for some commentary from older and wiser heads. Are Dr. Alyami's thoughts a revelation or is this old news? Is this what Washington would like to believe or a reasonably truthful picture of what is going on? Are there valuable insights in this interview?

How might our own interests be affected if Saudi Arabia implodes?

The Future Of Saudi Arabia.

Victoria Nuland, Samantha Power? By Walrus

I am in Venice and the Biennale art exhibitions are in full swing. I love the works of Henri Rousseau and there is an exhibition of his work in the Doges Palace, among them this masterpiece "War". Rousseau was a painter of the "naive" school, defined thus in Wikipedia: "Naïve art is a classification of art that is often characterized by a childlike simplicity in its subject matter and technique"..... "The characteristics of naïve art are an awkward relationship to the formal qualities of painting, especially non-respect of the three rules of the perspective (such as defined by the Progressive Painters of the Renaissance): decrease of the size of objects proportionally with distance, muting of colors with distance, decrease of the precision of details with distance, The results are: effects of perspective geometrically erroneous (awkward aspect of the works, children's drawings look, or medieval painting look, but the comparison stops there) strong use of pattern, unrefined color on all the plans of the composition, without enfeeblement in the background, an equal accuracy brought to details, including those of the background which should be shaded off. Simplicity rather than subtlety are all supposed markers of naïve art. It has, however, become such a popular and recognizable style that many examples could be called pseudo-naïve." ------------------------ One has to wonder if the same description - childlike simplicity, might attach to American foreign policy in Ukraine and the Middle East? Does the subject look like Nuland? Samantha Power?

The Law Of War - Published by The Office Of DoD General Counsel By Walrus

For the legally minded, The DoD has just released a joint service manual on the law of war, replacing Four individual service tomes.

The blogosphere is now going to forensically study and reinterpret this publication. The works of John Yoo will no doubt get a mention even though he wasn't in the Military, as will various cases.

For what it's worth, the link is below. I must find my copy of "The Caine Mutiny". 

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/Law-of-War-Manual-June-2015.pdf

Russian Mobile Crematoriums? Shades Of Saddams Mobile Weapons Labs! By Walrus.

"Bloomberg reporter Josh Rogin breathlessly tells us that the reason the United States Government cannot prove its allegations of direct Russian involvement of its troops in Ukraine in the form of dead Russian soldiers is because the Russian Government has deployed mobile crematoriums in the Donbass region to get rid of the bodies. Rogins evidence are statements from Two American politicians:

“The Russians are trying to hide their casualties by taking mobile crematoriums with them,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry told me. “They are trying to hide not only from the world but from the Russian people their involvement.”

Thornberry said he had seen evidence of the crematoriums from both U.S. and Ukrainian sources. He said he could not disclose details of classified information, but insisted that he believed the reports. “What we have heard from the Ukrainians, they are largely supported by U.S. intelligence and others,” he said.

Representative Seth Moulton, a former Marine Corps officer and a Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, was with Thornberry on the Ukraine trip in late March. He tweeted about the mobile crematoriums at the time, but didn’t reveal his sources. He told me this week the information didn’t come just from Ukrainian officials, whose record of providing war intelligence to U.S. lawmakers isn’t stellar."

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-05-26/putin-burns-his-dead-to-hide-ukraine-aggression

=============

Personally, this makes me want to cry. Exactly how gullible does the American Government think its citizens are? Do I need to remind anyone of the ongoing consequences of believing Saddam Hussien had, among other things, "mobile weapons labs"?

Does anyone not yet understand  the concept of negative evidence: " The Russians MUST be fighting in Ukraine and if we can't find their dead bodies then they are cremating them on site!". 

I had a quick look on the web for evidence of such machinery  and by coincidence I found a very badly photoshopped video of an alleged Russian mobile crematorium dating from September last year. The source appears to be a Belorussian website: by24.org.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=efe_1410266111

 

A Nuclear Armed ISIS? By Walrus.

The Independent is reporting that "ISIS claims it could buy its first nuclear weapon from Pakistan in Twelve months" the source is allegedly an article in its magazine written by a British hostage/journalist.

The operative words that got The Independent steamed up are:

"Let me throw a hypothetical operation onto the table,” the article continues. “The Islamic State has billions of dollars in the bank, so they call on their wilāyah in Pakistan to purchase a nuclear device through weapons dealers with links to corrupt officials in the region."

It admits that such a scenario is “far-fetched” but warns: “It’s the sum of all fears for Western intelligence agencies and it’s infinitely more possible today than it was just one year ago."

===============================================================

My first thought is a line from a great Australian movie: "Tell him he's dreaming!".

I would have thought there is not a snowballs chance of this happening.

 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-claims-it-could-buy-its-first-nuclear-weapon-from-pakistan-within-12-months-10270525.html

What Is The Difference Between An ISIS Terrorist And A Freedom Fighter: "Appropriate Vetting" By Walrus

Lifted unashamedly from Zerohedge comes the news that the applicants for the new rebel force we will be training for action against ISIL will be screened - "appropriately vetted" to weed out possible ISIL members.

"TAMPA, Fla. - The U.S. military and partner forces have begun training the initial class of appropriately vetted Syrian opposition recruits this week to support the effort to degrade and ultimately defeat ISIL in Syria.

This multinational and interagency program involves coalition military and foreign ministries, intelligence agencies, and civilian investigative services. The training curriculum is designed to meet the specific needs of the Syrian opposition forces and may be tailored to specific mission and personnel requirements.

Training will cover a range of critical combat skills, including marksmanship, casualty care, land navigation, communications, leadership, and law of armed conflict and human rights principles.

The training phase is a critical step in the Syria train and equip mission designed to build the capability of the appropriately vetted Syrian fighters so that they can defend the Syrian people from attacks by ISIL and secure territory controlled by the Syrian opposition; protect the United States, its friends and allies, and the Syrian people from threats posed by terrorists in Syria; and promote the conditions for a negotiated settlement to end the conflict in Syria."

===================================================================

I am starting to have trouble maintaining doublethink here. We are fighting against ISIL, who are fighting against the Syrian Government as well as the Government of Iraq. However we don't like the  Syrian Government, so we support yet another bunch of rebels who are fighting against the Syrian Government but aren't ISIL.

I suppose a political science graduate from an Ivy League University  could explain the subtleties of our position here and I am sure some committee of similarly trained folks will develop a suitably nuanced and politically correct vetting questionnaire.

I can  then imagine a gender and minority balanced selection committee suitably sitting in Washington, composed of  highly trained political, behavioural and social science graduates poring over the applications, Myers Briggs scores and MMPI results to select the chosen few.

The mind boggles at the template used to screen applicants and I invite other SST readers to suggest our ideal recruit.

http://www.centcom.mil/en/news/articles/initial-class-of-syrian-opposition-forces-begin-training

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/what-difference-between-isis-terrorist-and-freedom-fighter-appropriate-vetting

 

Follow The Money - By Walrus

In the movie "All The Presidents Men" regarding Watergate, Deep Throat, the leaker, offers his immortal  advice to the reporters: "Follow the money".  Zerohedge, quoting the New York Times, makes in my opinion a good observation regarding the formation by China of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, namely that it signals the beginning of the end of Western financial hegemony and a lessening of American influence via the World Bank, IMF and similar institutions.

To quote Zerohedge:

"Over the past several months, we’ve argued that between the collapse of petrodollar mercantilism and the rise of a China-led, yuan-influenced multinational development bank, the days of dollar hegemony are likely numbered. The implications of the shift away from a global economic order that has prevailed since the end of WWII are far reaching and may include the demise of what has largely been a unilateral political and economic order characterized by the dominance of US foreign policy and Western notions of politics and capitalism."

Zerohedge then speculates, gently that:

"But even as the some observers describe the situation as a “withdrawal” by the US from the world stage, it may indeed be that Washington has simply lost its legitimacy after years of foreign policy “missteps” that have now culminated in multiple proxy wars across the Middle East and after mishandling China’s rise to superpower status by painting Beijing as a quasi-threat rather than adapting to a changing world order in a way that secured US interests while demonstrating an ability to respond appropriately to a changing geopolitical landscape."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To my way of thinking there are Two proximate causes for this state of affairs:

1) The failure to extract a "peace dividend" from the military industrial complex at the end of the Cold War following the collapse of the USSR and destroy its influence on policy.

2) The failure, starting with the repeal of the Glass - Steagall Act in 1999 to rein in the financial rentiers of Wall Street and as late as 2008-2009 failing to use the financial downturn to reinstate some semblance of fetters on the unbridled speculation of the now "too big to fail" financial institutions.

In my opinion these Two paved the way for multiple "foreign policy failures" that could not have happened if military capabilities had been reduced and the conversion of financial markets into what now passes for casinos has delegitimised America as an economic leader - hence the AIIB.

The issue now, as apparently the NYT believes, is how America copes with its new competitors in Russia and China.

My own sense is sadness at the opportunities lost since the end of the Cold War. For example the infrastructure that could have been built around the world particularly with todays near zero interest rates were it not for the rentier classes an their cant about public/ private partnerships and their erroneous assertions about the efficiency of the public sector both in America and elsewhere.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-18/world-ponders-life-after-us-hegemony

Who Says America Doesn't Have An Aristocracy? By Walrus

"In her May issue editor's letter, ELLE Editor-in-Chief Robbie Myers writes: "There is something innately regal about Chelsea—a kind of grace that doesn't seem practiced, or trotted out just for public consumption. She's a person of substance for sure, a young woman who, while measured in her manner, has a fierceness of conviction, and a calling to make the world a better place."

No Ceilings is emblematic of the work Chelsea says she felt called to do. It was an idea she and her mother dreamed up together, looking back at the United Nations' World Conference on Women in Beijing in 1995, where Hillary, then First Lady, made her famous declaration that "human rights are women's rights and women's rights are human rights." Chelsea says she wanted to use the 20th anniversary of that historic event to provide perspective on the status of women's rights, and last month she was able to do just that as she officially released the No Ceilings Full Participation Reportat an event in New York City, alongside her mother and Melinda Gates (The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation joined forces with the No Ceilings initiative of the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation to create the report)."

==========

The above is a preamble to a gushing Elle Magazine article on Chelsea Clinton that makes  me want to vomit.

If Chelsea Clinton is not a member of an emerging American aristocracy then I'll eat my hat. By any analysis of her background and career, she has to be on a trajectory to public office, as are many others of her ilk.

As most would know, with a little money, the credentials for a public persona can be purchased - a few years teaching in an undeveloped country, notable adventures, expeditions to far off places, Board appointments, charity "work", your own book, etc. it's all for sale these days. I had one colleague who deeds of derring do were trumpeted in puff pieces this way - I found that every Australian Consulate and Embassy had been primed to look after him on his "expedition."  

Lest you think this is unimportant; How long can "The American Dream" be pedalled to the public in the face of this?

How long can commentators pass off the abject poverty and lack of opportunity of sections of the community as the result of "Choices" they made for themselves? As if they could have been neurosurgeons if they had wished it so? 

All you have to do is work hard and dream big, yeah, sure.

How long before the community at large understands that the game is rigged?

Will this unrepresentative aristocratic swill end up like French or Russian aristocracies? The tools of repression in their favour already exist.

Sorry, my egalitarian streak is showing this morning.

walrus 

http://www.elle.com/culture/celebrities/news/a27707/chelsea-clinton-may-2015/ 

Some Russian Analysis Of Our Ukrainian Plans By Walrus

The Col. Cassad (in English) website has published a translation of an interview with the former SVR General Reshetnikov who heads a private Russian think tank. The main thread of it is about the Ukraine and what he perceives to be American intentions, to whit:

"they don't need a federal Ukraine, such a territory will be hard to control. It will be impossible to deploy their military bases, a new ABM echelon there. And there are such plans. From Lugansk and Kharkov tactical cruise missiles can reach behind the Urals, where our main nuclear deterrence forces are located. And they (i.e. ABM's) can hit silo-based and road-mobile ballistic missiles on the ascent trajectory with a 100% probability. Currently this area is not reachable by them neither from Poland nor from Turkey nor from the South-East Asia. This is the main goal. So the US will fight for Donbass to the last Ukrainian."

If this assessment of U.S. intentions is correct, and such bases in Eastern Ukraine will neutralise land based Russian nuclear assets , doesn't this imply that the Neoconservatives haven't given up on the "Project For A New American Century"? Should we assume Chinas land based nuclear deterrent is similarly neutralised?

Doesn't this mean that Russia is forced to choose between not defending the Novorussians, losing sovereignty and accepting a role in President Obamas words as a "Regional Power" or supporting them to the point of a confrontation with NATO, risking nuclear war?

Furthermore exactly who thinks time is, or is not, on their side? A colleague argues that Western sanctions will continue to weaken the Russian economy and that therefore time is not on Russias side. My own guess is that this is incorrect, and that the confrontation has galvanised both Russia and Chinas economies. If Washington also thinks the way I do then the next offensive in Ukraine, when it comes, may be an order of magnitude larger so as to secure a quick victory.

Where does this end? A mono polar American universe where corporations graze unstoppably over the planet to the detriment of almost all the population? A freedomised world full of love and peace?

http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com

 

 

 

Meanwhile In Yemen, Our Foreign Policy Prospers.. by Walrus.

The schoolmarmish tone of the State Departments March 20 pronunciamento regarding the mosque bombing in Yemen is redolent with the Liberal, Secular, Democratic values which we allegedly espouse:

"The United States strongly condemns today’s suicide bombings that killed over 130 individuals and left hundreds wounded. We express our condolences to the families of the victims. We deplore the brutality of the terrorists who perpetrated today’s unprovoked attack on Yemeni citizens who were peacefully engaging in Friday prayers in their places of worship. 

We also strongly condemn the March 19 airstrike targeting the Presidential Palace in Aden. We call upon all actors within Yemen to halt all unilateral and offensive military actions. We specifically call on the Houthis, former President Ali Abdallah Salih, and their allies to stop their violent incitement and undermining of President Abdo Rabbo Mansour Hadi, Yemen’s legitimate President. 

The way forward for Yemen must be through a political solution. We call upon all Yemeni parties to return in good faith to a political dialogue to resolve their differences. Without consensus among the Yemeni people, any unilateral assertion of authority will not succeed. We urge a renewed commitment to a peaceful political transition consistent with the Gulf Cooperation Council Initiative, the National Dialogue Conference outcomes, relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions and the Yemeni constitution. 

Political instability threatens the well-being of all Yemenis and denies them the opportunity to live in safety, peace and prosperity. Today’s attack on the mosques in Sana’a underscores that terrorism affects all Yemenis and that no one political group alone can confront the challenges facing Yemen."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

However it appears that "one political group" denies the promise of democracy and has had the temerity to continue fighting, apparently with some successes against the pluralistic Government model we support, well at least in Yemen, when it suits us.

The President of Yemen has allegedly fled and the Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia, are not pleased by the successes of the Houthis. I wonder if Col. Lang might like to comment on the likely outcome of this situation again?

Yemens President Leaves...

Virginia Bill - Euthanizing Pets by Walrus.

The Washington Post is reporting that a proposed Virginia Bill would make it difficult if not perhaps illegal for animal shelters to euthanize unwanted pets. PETA is apparently alleging that the bill is aimed  at itself since it euthanises the majority of its foundlings. There is now apparently infighting among various shelters about the bill.

The shelters in my Australian State work by screening healthy animals for undesirable behavioural traits and those that pass then sit on death row for up to Eight weeks awaiting adoption.

My beloved Chocolate Labrador Roxanne was a rescued dog. My late partner Annie believed that the rescued dogs knew they had been saved from death and accordingly loved you more.

In the full knowledge that fools rush in where angels fear to tread, I ask; What say you about this  bill? 

Euthanizing Unwanted Pets.

"Jobs For Jihadists" By Walrus

Permit me to add some Sunday black humour.  Following the U.S. State Department pronunciamento that a lack of jobs for young Islamic  males was fuelling jihadism, "The D.C. Clothesline" web site reports that State is flooded with job applications from said jihadists, a selection are reproduced at the link….

On a serious toe, such a suggestion indicates that the State Department Pollyannas still believes the "market forces" utilitarian political science model applies to ISIS members and not the millennial cult model of Woods article.

Jobs For Jihadists

The View From The Farm By Walrus

Two weeks ago I moved from a city apartment to a Five bedroom house on Forty acres of farmland alongside a snow fed river. From my study as I write this morning I can see Four Kangaroos breakfasting next to my garden fence. From the kitchen while I made the coffee I watched wild fallow deer feeding near the river. My Nikon shutter click startles them from a hundred yards away. My friends know that I have been pining for return to this part of the country for what have been Twelve tumultuous years. That tumult was not only been driven by personal events but by increasing concern over international affairs and I am most grateful to Col. Lang and the Committee for providing me with   an education on many matters as well as confirming my suspicions that all was not well in Washington.

The proximate cause of this international tumult in my opinion is the last ditch attempt by the American elite to maintain a monopolar world, as described in the article"Neoliberalism is our Frankenstein" posted at The Atheneum by Col. Lang.

Neoliberalism is Our Frankenstein

To paraphrase a former Australian Prime Minister; America must now either crash through or crash since no one in Washington seems to be seems to be thinking about a "Plan B". Indeed, even talking about the possibility of doubting the wisdom  of the Washington consensus - Congress, the think tanks, the media commentariat and  their enablers is a career limiting act. To put that another way; presenting cold hard facts and sober argument that does not buttress the group think worldview of the Kagans, Krauthammers and Cheneys will get you fired.

This is the first component of a binary recipe for lethally stupid foreign policy. Please note that I use the word "Stupid" in the sense of Professor Cipollas definition - doing something that is both injurious to everyone including the perpetrator and also totally unexpected by its victims.

The Basic Laws Of Human Stupidity

The second component of our suicide cocktail is the overwhelming narcissism in American leadership. I have gone on, and on, about this subject and I apologise for restating my warnings. Narcissists are great haters. Everything is personal to them, all the time. They lack any shred of empathy. They have a massive sense of entitlement and hold themselves above any man made law. Nothing I have seen in President Obamas behaviour has shaken my belief that he suffers from this condition and of course his acolytes are also infected.

At the core of the Narcissist is a lack of self worth and a deeply distressed and traumatised child. In an attempt to salve this hurt they will literally do anything. For example an Australian Prime  Minister, spurned by his own party colleagues, brought down his own Government. My concern is that Obama may not wish to live in a world where he is not feted and reduced to a mere mortal and that instead he prefers to go down in history  as the author of this worlds destruction if he is not to be the leader of a unipolar American empire.

Unless there is some kind of circuit breaker event, perhaps a great natural disaster for example, I fear that the bellicose anti Russian stance will harden and when that happens war becomes a self fulfilling prophesy. What I am  now looking for are anti Russian pronouncements by formerly sober commentators, that would be the next step.

Now its time for breakfast and to help my neighbour yard his cattle for the market.

 

 

CIA’s Top Spy Steps Down - By Walrus

According to The Daily Beast, the CIA's head of The National Clandestine (Intellligence?) Service, has announced he plans to retire after only Two years in that position.

According to the report, the catalyst is Director Brennans allleged desire to do away with the divide between analysis and the clandestine (collection?) service in favour of organising into self contained regional groups.

To this amateur, such a change introduces the risk of "groupthink" where collection activities are shaped to suit the ruling analytic paradigm and unwanted, perhaps contrary, intelligence that doesn't fit the desired narrative is simply not collected. I wonder if it also might negatively impact the security of clandestine assets.

I would like to think that critics of this move within CIA are motivated by a desire to produce "Frank and Fearless" high quality intelligence as opposed to just saving their careers.

I hope Col. Lang might like to comment on this situation. 

Top Spy To Step Down.

 

IS - Pentagon Calls In Outside Experts By Walrus

It appears that, according to The New York Times, the Pentagon doesn't understand the Islamic State movement and has called in outside experts. Anyone we might know?  Walrus

-------------------

"WASHINGTON — Maj. Gen. Michael K. Nagata, commander of American Special Operations forces in the Middle East, sought help this summer in solving an urgent problem for the American military: What makes the Islamic State so dangerous? Trying to decipher this complex enemy — a hybrid terrorist organization and a conventional army — is such a conundrum that General Nagata assembled an unofficial brain trust outside the traditional realms of expertise within the Pentagon, State Department and intelligence agencies, in search of fresh ideas and inspiration. Business professors, for example, are examining the Islamic State’s marketing and branding strategies.  NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/29/us/politics/in-battle-to-defang-isis-us-targets-its-psychology-.html

 

The Downside Of Firearm Registration By Walrus.

I am moving to a Forty acre country property shortly. I am required to advise the firearms register people of the new address for my Four firearms. The Police will then inspect my new gunsafe arrangements. From what I have been told, it appears that "someone" has unauthorised access to the registry and is providing a menu service to well organised thieves. Furthermore from what I have heard, the Police response to firearm thefts is somewhat muted. Another unintended consequence of firearm registration - becoming a target for thieves. I intend to fit a number of cell phone equipped trail cameras to protect my property, but will the Police be interested in catching someone in the act? Does anyone have any suggestions?

Congress Authorises War With Russia - By Walrus

The link is to the fine print announcement in the New York Times that The United States Congress, silently, speedily and with no public debate has passed a motion authorizing the supply to Ukraine of American lethal weapons and other forms of support which ratchet up, in my opinion, the probability of a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.

Resolution 758

No further proof of the degeneracy of American politics is required. I can find no information let alone public debate on this matter in the complaisant, lickspittle mainstream media.

My concern is that the Washington establishment, like Kaiser Wilhelm, concluded that war with Russia now is preferable to a confrontation with an invigourated Russia, perhaps with Chinese support, in Ten years time.

I would also add that in my opinion the Russians will prove far better fighters than any opponent. I think a re reading of Anthony Beavors book on Stalingrad might be instructive.

 

 

CIA Interrogation Report - By Walrus

The New York Times is reporting on the contents of the Senate CIA Interrogation report. My personal comments about the alleged actions of the CIA and its contractors detailed in the report are largely unprintable.

My comment however about President Obama is not. If he truly said: “it is important for us not to feel too sanctimonious in retrospect about the tough job that those folks had.”, then he is as depraved as the rest.

The lack of punishment and other corrective action, let alone any atonement,  by successive American Administrations puts the final seal on the coffin of the idea of America as "exceptional" or "indispensable". How can America make any moral arguments for intervention in world affairs with this still hanging over its head?

CIA Interrogation.

Moderate Syrian Rebels - An Endangered Species -Walrus.

As predicted, the moderate Syrian rebel forces are no more. When will Col. Lang be callled back to the colours?

At some point President Obama will require a scapegoat for the stupidity of his strategy. As a general rule scapegoats are not chosen for their guilt but for expediency. Look out Gen. Dempsey! Who should really go?

.........

Two of the main rebel groups receiving weapons from the United States to fight both the regime and jihadist groups in Syria have surrendered to al-Qaeda.

The US and its allies were relying on Harakat Hazm and the Syrian Revolutionary Front to become part of a ground force that would attack the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil).

For the last six months the Hazm movement, and the SRF through them, had been receiving heavy weapons from the US-led coalition, including GRAD rockets and TOW anti-tank missiles.

But on Saturday night Harakat Hazm surrendered military bases and weapons supplies to Jabhat al-Nusra, when the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria stormed villages they controlled in northern Idlib province.

The development came a day after Jabhat al-Nusra dealt a final blow to the SRF, storming and capturing Deir Sinbal, home town of the group's leader Jamal Marouf............

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11203825/Syrian-rebels-armed-and-trained-by-US-surrender-to-al-Qaeda.html

 

Obama Vs. Putin, Platitudes Vs. Facts? - Walrus

I read President Obamas speech to the U.N General Assembly on 24th September and all I think I heard was platitudes and nominative langauge that can mean whatever a person most wants it to mean in their own mind.

For example; what does passage from the speech really mean?

"But we welcome the scrutiny of the world -- because what you see in America is a country that has steadily worked to address our problems, to make our union more perfect, to bridge the divides that existed at the founding of this nation.  America is not the same as it was 100 years ago, or 50 years ago, or even a decade ago.  Because we fight for our ideals, and we are willing to criticize ourselves when we fall short.  Because we hold our leaders accountable, and insist on a free press and independent judiciary.  Because we address our differences in the open space of democracy -- with respect for the rule of law; with a place for people of every race and every religion; and with an unyielding belief in the ability of individual men and women to change their communities and their circumstances and their countries for the better.

After nearly six years as President, I believe that this promise can help light the world.  Because I have seen a longing for positive change -- for peace and for freedom and for opportunity and for the end to bigotry -- in the eyes of young people who I’ve met around the globe.

 

Governments Achieve The Reverse Of Their Stated Objectives - Walrus.

I believe, as a general rule, Governments achieve the reverse of their stated objectives. I hesitate to call it a unique universal law and there may also be other formulations. I first observed this in watching Governments at work in Australia. The Socialist, reformist Whitlam Federal Government did more to enrich the already wealthy and further impoverish the poor despite this being the reverse of its stated intentions. Similarly I noticed that the working man was better off under an avowedly conservative right of center administration while the wealthy marked time.

I then realised that what I was observing was not simple corruption, although there is still plenty of that, it is human fallibility. The actors I watched were honest striving believers. I know, but have  not researched, the works of Isiah Berlin who perhaps among others observed that even good ends, diligently pursued, by their very nature preclude other good ends - good ends conflict.

International examples of this putative law are not hard to find. The desire of the British and French for "peace at any price" emboldened Hitler, resulting in the exact reverse of the stated intentions. Our recent attempts at establishing a purple fingered democracy in Iraq have resulted in the creation of a situation where at least some of us are longing for the relative peace and quiet of Saddam Hussiens Government. I am sure you can find even better examples.

This apparent law of nature seems entirely unknown in foreign policy circles in Washington, Canberra, Ottawa, London and other Western capitals. "Destroying ISIS" and "The Freedom of the Ukraine" are the stated goals and under that banner we embark on yet another crusade in the Middle East while simaltaneously poking the Russian Bear. What could possibly go wrong?

If we apply our new law, it is not hard to speculate that attacking ISIS does a number of things that are not in our interests:

1) It dignifies and recognises ISIS as a serious player in international affairs - A state with borders, leaders, spokesmen and institutions. By calling on other muslim states to participate in its destruction we risk internal destabilisation of those states themselves.

2) It makes ISIS a rallying point for every disaffected male muslim teenager and young adult in the entire world, not to mention the older and perhaps wealthier muslims who have had to put up with the thirteen years of injustice, discrimination and abuse dealt out to them by the West since 911.

Applying the law suggests the consequences of attacking ISIS will be to make it stronger, spawn associated radical muslim factions in Western countries and completely destabilize the Persian Gulf - the exact reverse of our stated intentions.

Similarly our efforts to confront Russia should actuallly strengthen its voice in international affairs, drive it closer to China and the other BRICS nations and weaken NATO and the European economy.

Not only do we need "hard hearted empaths" in Government, we need cynical well educated old men who understand:

"After such knowledge, what forgiveness? Think now

History has many cunning passages, contrived corridors

And issues, deceives with whispering ambitions,

Guides us by vanities.  Think now

She gives when our attention is distracted

And what she gives, gives with such supple confusions

That the giving famishes the craving.  Gives too late

What’s not believed in, or is still believed,

In memory only, reconsidered passion.  Gives too soon

Into weak hands, what’s thought can be dispensed with

Till the refusal propagates a fear.  Think

Neither fear nor courage saves us.  Unnatural vices

Are fathered by our heroism.  Virtues

Are forced upon us by our impudent crimes.

These tears are shaken from the wrath-bearing tree." 

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) - Letter To Angela Merkel Re: Ukraine. Posted by Walrus.

The Veteran Intelligence Professionals For Sanity have written to Angela Merkel, the Germqan Chancellor, regarding the Ukraine situation. Perhaps Col. Lang might like to comment on this matter.

My concern is that NATO is going to tread where angels fear. There was a signifigant body of thought prior to World War One that contended that the world economy was even then so integrated that rational considerations of "trade" would trump the warlike computations of the major powers. British Army uniforms were dyed with German aniline dyes and all that. I suspect that the Washingtonians subscribe to similar assumptions today.

----------------- 

MEMORANDUM FOR: Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Ukraine and NATO

We the undersigned are longtime veterans of U.S. intelligence. We take the unusual step of writing this open letter to you to ensure that you have an opportunity to be briefed on our views prior to the NATO summit on September 4-5.

You need to know, for example, that accusations of a major Russian "invasion" of Ukraine appear not to be supported by reliable intelligence. Rather, the "intelligence" seems to be of the same dubious, politically "fixed" kind used 12 years ago to "justify" the U.S.-led attack on Iraq. We saw no credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq then; we see no credible evidence of a Russian invasion now. Twelve years ago, former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, mindful of the flimsiness of the evidence on Iraqi WMD, refused to join in the attack on Iraq. In our view, you should be appropriately suspicions of charges made by the US State Department and NATO officials alleging a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

President Barack Obama tried yesterday to cool the rhetoric of his own senior diplomats and the corporate media, when he publicly described recent activity in the Ukraine, as "a continuation of what’s been taking place for months now … it’s not really a shift."

Obama, however, has only tenuous control over the policymakers in his administration – who, sadly, lack much sense of history, know little of war, and substitute anti-Russian invective for a policy. One year ago, hawkish State Department officials and their friends in the media very nearly got Mr. Obama to launch a major attack on Syria based, once again, on "intelligence" that was dubious, at best.

 

Top Ten Telltale Signs That Would Tell You Russia Has Invaded Ukraine By Roman Kretsul - Posted By Walrus

This has been unashamedly lifted from the Club Orlov website. Could someone please tell  Samantha Power, Rasmussen and others about the telltale signs of a Russian Invasion of Ukraine? Black humour I know, but it helps.

" You be the judge. I put together this helpful list of top ten telltale signs that will allow you to determine whether indeed Russia invaded Ukraine last Thursday, or whether Thursday's announcement is yet another confabulation. (Credit to Roman Kretsul).

Because if Russia invaded on Thursday morning, this is what the situation on the ground would look like by Saturday afternoon.

1. Ukrainian artillery fell silent almost immediately. They are no longer shelling residential districts of Donetsk and Lugansk. This is because their locations had been pinpointed prior to the operation, and by Thursday afternoon they were completely wiped out using air attacks, artillery and ground-based rocket fire, as the first order of business. Local residents are overjoyed that their horrible ordeal is finally at an end.

2. The look of military activity on the ground in Donetsk and Lugansk has changed dramatically. Whereas before it involved small groups of resistance fighters, the Russians operate in battalions of 400 men and dozens of armored vehicles, followed by convoys of support vehicles (tanker trucks, communications, field kitchens, field hospitals and so on). The flow of vehicles in and out is non-stop, plainly visible on air reconnaissance and satellite photos. Add to that the relentless radio chatter, all in Russian, which anyone who wants to can intercept, and the operation becomes impossible to hide.

3. The Ukrainian military has promptly vanished. Soldiers and officers alike have taken off their uniforms, abandoned their weapons, and are doing their best to blend in with the locals. Nobody thought the odds of the Ukrainian army against the Russians were any good. Ukraine's only military victory against Russia was at the battle of Konotop in 1659, but at the time Ukraine was allied with the mighty Khanate of Crimea, and, you may have noticed, Crimea is not on Ukraine's side this time around.

4. There are Russian checkpoints everywhere. Local civilians are allowed through, but anyone associated with a government, foreign or domestic, is detained for questioning. A filtration system has been set up to return demobilized Ukrainian army draftees to their native regions, while the volunteers and the officers are shunted to pretrial detention centers, to determine whether they had ordered war crimes to be committed.

5. Most of Ukraine's border crossings are by now under Russian control. Some have been reinforced with air defense and artillery systems and tank battalions, to dissuade NATO forces from attempting to stage an invasion. Civilians and humanitarian goods are allowed through. Businessmen are allowed through once they fill out the required forms (which are in Russian).

6. Russia has imposed a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine. All civilian flights have been cancelled. There is quite a crowd of US State Department staffers, CIA and Mossad agents, and Western NGO people stuck at Borispol airport in Kiev. Some are nervously calling everyone they know on their satellite phones. Western politicians are demanding that they be evacuated immediately, but Russian authorities want to hold onto them until their possible complicity in war crimes has been determined.

7. The usual Ukrainian talking heads, such as president Poroshenko, PM Yatsenyuk and others, are no longer available to be interviewed by Western media. Nobody quite knows where they are. There are rumors that they have already fled the country. Crowds have stormed their abandoned residences, and were amazed to discover that they were all outfitted with solid gold toilets. Nor are the Ukrainian oligarchs anywhere to be found, except for the warlord Igor Kolomoisky, who was found in his residence, abandoned by his henchmen, dead from a heart attack. (Contributed by the Saker.)

8. Some of the over 800,000 Ukrainian refugees are starting to stream back in from Russia. They were living in tent cities, many of them in the nearby Rostov region, but with the winter coming they are eager to get back home, now that the shelling is over. Along with them, construction crews, cement trucks and flatbeds stacked with pipe, cable and rebar are streaming in, to repair the damage from the shelling.

9. There is all sorts of intense diplomatic and military activity around the world, especially in Europe and the US. Military forces are on highest alert, diplomats are jetting around and holding conferences. President Obama just held a press conference to announce that “We don't have a strategy on Ukraine yet.” His military advisers tell him that his usual strategy of “bomb a little and see what happens” is not likely to be helpful in this instance.

10. Kiev has surrendered. There are Russian tanks on the Maidan Square. Russian infantry is mopping up the remains of Ukraine's National Guard. A curfew has been announced. The operation to take Kiev resembled “Shock and Awe” in Baghdad: a few loud bangs and then a whimper.

Armed with this list, you too should be able to determine whether or not Russia has invaded Ukraine last Thursday."

 

Ten signs

Ukraine To Join NATO? By Walrus.

A variety of sources appear to confirm that Ukraine is going to apply for membership of NATO. RAsmussen suggests that such an application would receive favourable consideration. Exactly how fast and in what form NATO action, if any, might be is unknown.

Is America so sure that Putin won't respond to such provocation militarily or is that what they wish for?

It now appears quite clear that America is going to make a grab for global hegemony, dragging its partners (Europe and the ABCA allies) with it. If Putin is faced down and/or blinks, however one puts it, there is no obstacle left to America doing anything it wants in the Middle East or anywhere else on earth if the spirit so moves.

Exactly what America wishes to do is to remake the world in its own image as evidenced by the free trade agreements it has been trying to ram down peoples throats for at least a decade.

Furthermore, the average American has no influence whatsoever in the determination of policy, so that avenue of appeal is closed.

It is a beautiful late winter day here with a promise of spring, yet I feel like some must have felt in August 1914. What can we do? What can anyone do?

Ukraine to Join NATO

 

zero influence

"All these units have now received Army numbers" - Press Conference Transcript of Chairman Of Donetsk National Republic posted by Walrus.

Press conference translation of remarks by Alexander V. Zakharchenko, Chairman of The Council of Ministers of The Donetsk National Republic:.

"] As you all know, a week ago we announced our plan to attack. We started it yesterday.

Until yesterday we have been preparing for the attack, examining trophy equipment, arming the crews, and testing communication between different military formations. I can now proudly announce that we formed 2 tank battalions, 2 full artillery brigades, 2 Grad divisons, 1 mechanized infantry battalion, 3 infantry brigades and a special purpose assault airborne brigade.

All these units have now received Army numbers. The communication system have been regularized and 2 field hospitals and 1 maintenance brigade have been formed. We have begun testing all these units in battle.

Yesterday we began an attack on Amvrosiyivka enemy group...."

http://www.vineyardsaker.fr/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/20140824-press-conference-formation-of-as-state.en.txt

----------------------------------

If Zakharchenko is to be believed,  I think we are now witnessing the birth, in blood and pain, of a new state in the Eastern Ukraine.

The Novorussian militia is now reorganising into larger units with some form of administrative and logistical structure that are apparently capable of manouvre at least at battalion level. The stated objective is to push the Ukranian Army out of what is believed to be Donetsk territory. A civil administrative structure is allegedly also emerging.

As far as I can tell Rebel morale is reasonably good compared to the Ukranian Army, after all, the former are defending their homes and have the advantage of interior lines of communication and local knowledge, the Ukranian conscript army? Not so much.

The option of a Federal system within Ukraine is also off the table as far as the East is concerned, too much blood has been spilled for that, however it is not impossible that Russia and the West may try to impose such an arrangement.

The rhetoric of the press conference is of ordinary people defending their homeland against unprovoked external aggression - an appeal that must resonate with Americans if it is not surpressed by the mainstream media.

My own opinion is that America ultimately is not in a position to disavow self determination by a self identifying group of this size. What should happen now is a discussion of the borders of a new state and measures to end the fighting.

There is always the possibility however that the Washington foreign policy establishment will try to double down rather than admit to triggering partition of Ukraine, and compound the problem with instructions to Kiev for one more "big push" - resulting in failure, more dead conscripts and the possibility of Russian intervention. I would like to think that Gen. Dempsey might have enough influence to prevent this. Tell them it's over.

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault - The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin By John J. Mearsheimer - Posted By Walrus

According to the prevailing wisdom in the West, the Ukraine crisis can be blamed almost entirely on Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin, the argument goes, annexed Crimea out of a long-standing desire to resuscitate the Soviet empire, and he may eventually go after the rest of Ukraine, as well as other countries in eastern Europe. In this view, the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 merely provided a pretext for Putin’s decision to order Russian forces to seize part of Ukraine.

But this account is wrong: the United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West. At the same time, the EU’s expansion eastward and the West’s backing of the pro-democracy movement in Ukraine -- beginning with the Orange Revolution in 2004 -- were critical elements, too. Since the mid-1990s, Russian leaders have adamantly opposed NATO enlargement, and in recent years, they have made it clear that they would not stand by while their strategically important neighbor turned into a Western bastion. For Putin, the illegal overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected and pro-Russian president -- which he rightly labeled a “coup” -- was the final straw. He responded by taking Crimea, a peninsula he feared would host a NATO naval base, and working to destabilize Ukraine until it abandoned its efforts to join the West.

Putin’s actions should be easy to comprehend. A huge expanse of flat land that Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself, Ukraine serves as a buffer state of enormous strategic importance to Russia. No Russian leader would tolerate a military alliance that was Moscow’s mortal enemy until recently moving into Ukraine. Nor would any Russian leader stand idly by while the West helped install a government there that was determined to integrate Ukraine into the West.

-------------------------

In my opinion, John Mearsheimer neatly summarizes the gestation and birth of the Ukranian crisis and suggests a logical and principled solution to the matter.

The question however remains; exactly why would we be wrong for thinking that the people in Washington are so deluded as to believe that a stable planetary order with America as world hegemon is possible? How can the targetting of Russia, the worlds second largest nuclear power, as an enemy state, potentially frustrating the development of the BRIC group of nations, not be seen as an attempt to permanently install America in such a position?

To put that another way with apolgies to Tolkien; Is America Mordor? Is not the NSA providing a good imitation of the all seeing Eye of Sauron? Washington already contains dozens of Grima Wormtongues. Is fact folowing fiction? 

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141769/john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine-crisis-is-the-wests-fault

"Heavy Fog In Channel. Continent Cut Off." - Walrus

"Heavy Fog In The Channel. Continent Cut Off" was The Times of London headline on Oct 22 1957.

"In other words, today, Russia is once again isolating itself from the international community" -President Obama in a statement on Jul 29 2014, announcing increased trade sanctions against Russia.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/07/29/statement-president-ukraine

"Russia is introducing a full 12 months embargo on the import of beef, pork, fruits and vegetables, poultry, fish, cheese, milk and dairy products from the European Union, the United States, Australia, Canada and the Kingdom of Norway.  Russia is also introducing an airspace ban against European and US airlines that fly over our airspace to Eastern Asia, namely, the Asia-Pacific Region and is considering changing the so-called Russian airspace entry and exit points for European scheduled and charter flights. Furthermore, Russia is ready to revise the rules of using the trans-Siberian routes, and will also discontinue talks with the US air authorities on the use of the trans-Siberian routes." - The Sakers interpretation of Russias response yesterday.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com.au/

I have to ask, as per The Times headline; Exactly who is isolating themselves from whom? Who is going to get hurt the most? Doesn't Washington understand the principle that a mere allegedly "regional power" like Russia is quite capable of making more trouble for the West than we can inflict on it?

Does Washington really think that the Russian people are going to march on the Kremlin to vent their anger at President Putin because of Washingtons sanctions? My own opinion is that sanctions will only strengthen the existing trade links between the BRIC group of nations and hurt "us" more than "them". As a friend whose economic knowledge is far better than mine pointed out; Once new market channels are opened in response to sanctions, it becomes extremely difficult to win back those markets when sanctions are lifted.

 

Heavy Fog In Channel. Continent Cut Off.

Passenger Jet Shot Down Over Ukraine by Walrus

Multiple news services are reporting the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH 17 over Ukraine.  The aircraft was a Boeing 777 with 229 passengers and 15 crew en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. None survived, 23 held American passports. The aircraft was in cruise at approximately 33,000ft, so it is alleged that the culprit was a heavy SAM. The crash site is some 50 km from the Russian border.

Claims and counter claims are already swirling around the internet as to the authors of this deed. Russia, the rebels, the Ukraine? All apparently own capable systems. My personal view is that neither Russia nor the rebels have anything to gain from such an action while it might be construed that the current Ukrainian government could want to encourage NATO intervention on its side as a result of this tragedy.

Russia allegely has a sophisticated and multi layered air defence system with I assume very good command and control systems so there should be radar evidence as well as forensics to identify the missile and the culprit.

My personal view is that if Washington does not approach the investigation of this matter in a bipartisan cooperative manner with Russia, then we can assume that the Obama Administration contemplates bringing Ukraine under NATO protection with the associated risk of direct military confrontation with Russia. Will the tone of Whitehouse press releases tell us which course, for better or worse, the Administration has chosen?  Walrus 

Moderate Syrian Rebel Application Form - Borowitz/Walrus

This appeared in the New Yorketr today via The Borowitz Report and is posted without comment. Walrus

 

"Welcome to the United States’ Moderate Syrian Rebel Vetting Process. To see if you qualify for $500 million in American weapons, please choose an answer to the following questions:

As a Syrian rebel, I think the word or phrase that best describes me is:
A) Moderate
B) Very moderate
C) Crazy moderate
D) Other

I became a Syrian rebel because I believe in:
A) Truth
B) Justice
C) The American Way
D) Creating an Islamic caliphate

If I were given a highly lethal automatic weapon by the United States, I would:
A) Only kill exactly the people that the United States wanted me to kill
B) Try to kill the right people, with the caveat that I have never used an automatic weapon before
C) Kill people only after submitting them to a rigorous vetting process
D) Immediately let the weapon fall into the wrong hands

I have previously received weapons from:
A) Al Qaeda
B) The Taliban
C) North Korea
D) I did not receive weapons from any of them because after they vetted me I was deemed way too moderate

I consider ISIS:
A) An existential threat to Iraq
B) An existential threat to Syria
C) An existential threat to Iraq and Syria
D) The people who will pick up my American weapon after I drop it and run away

Complete the following sentence. “American weapons are…”
A) Always a good thing to randomly add to any international hot spot
B) Exactly what this raging civil war has been missing for the past three years
C) Best when used moderately
D) Super easy to resell online

Thank you for completing the Moderate Syrian Rebel Application Form. We will process your application in the next one to two business days. Please indicate a current mailing address where you would like your weapons to be sent. If there is no one to sign for them we will leave them outside the front door."  Borowitz

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http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/06/moderate-syrian-rebel-application-form.html