Sic Semper Tyrannis

Facebook Considered Harmful By Walrus.

I believe I have found the enabler of the coming civil war.

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Thank you, Chairpersons Pallone and Schakowsky, for inviting me to speak today.
When I started working in technology, my hope was to build products that brought people together in new and productive ways. I wanted to improve the world we all lived in.Instead, the social media services that I and others have built over the past 15 years have served to tear people apart with alarming speed and intensity.

I feel ashamed by this outcome. And I am deeply concerned. And to that end, I am compelled to talk to you about what we can do to limit further damage—and maybe even undo some of it.

My path in technology started at Facebook where I was the first Director of Monetization. I thought my job was to figure out the business model for the company, and presumably one that sought to balance the needs of its stakeholders -- its advertisers, its users and its employees. Instead, we sought to mine as much attention as humanly possible and turn into historically unprecedented profits.

To do this, we didn’t simply create something useful and fun. We took a page from Big Tobacco’s playbook, working to make our offering addictive at the outset.

Tobacco companies initially just sought to make nicotine more potent. But eventually that wasn’t enough to grow the business as fast as they wanted. And so they added sugar and menthol to cigarettes so you could hold the smoke in your lungs for longer periods. At Facebook, we added status updates, photo tagging, and likes, which made status and reputation primary and laid the groundwork for a teenage mental health crisis.

Allowing for misinformation, conspiracy theories, and fake news to flourish were like Big Tobacco’s bronchodilators, which allowed the cigarette smoke to cover more surface area of the lungs. But that incendiary content alone wasn’t enough. To continue to grow the user base and in particular, the amount of time and attention users would surrender to Facebook, they needed more.

Tobacco companies added ammonia to cigarettes to increase the speed with which nicotine traveled to the brain. Extreme, incendiary content—think shocking images, graphic videos, and headlines that incite outrage—sowed tribalism and division. And this result has been unprecedented engagement - and profits.

Facebook’s ability to deliver this incendiary content to the right person, at the right time, in the exact right way... that is their ammonia.

Social media preys on the most primal parts of your brain. The algorithm maximizes your attention by hitting you repeatedly with content that triggers your strongest emotions— it aims to provoke, shock, and enrage.

When you see something you agree with, you feel compelled to defend it. When you see something you don’t agree with, you feel compelled to attack it. People on the other side of the issue have the same impulses. The cycle continues with the algorithm in the middle happily dealing arms to both sides in an endless war of words and misinformation. All the while, the technology is getting smarter and better at provoking a response from you.

These algorithms have brought out the worst in us. They’ve literally rewired our brains so that we’re detached from reality and immersed in tribalism.
This is not by accident. It’s an algorithmically optimized playbook to maximize user attention -- and profits.

And there are limited checks and balances.

In 2016, internal analysis at Facebook found 64% of all extremist group joins were due to their own recommendation tools. Yet repeated attempts to counteract this problem were ignored or shut down..............

..........When it comes to misinformation, these companies hide behind the First Amendment and say they stand for free speech. At the same time, their algorithms continually choose whose voice is actually heard. In truth, it is not free speech they revere. Instead, Facebook and their cohorts worship at the altar of engagement and cast all other concerns aside, raising the voices of division, anger, hate and misinformation to drown out the voices of truth, justice, morality, and peace.

House Committee On Energy And Commerce

Testimony of Tim Kendall, 24 September 2020

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I have been slow to see it, but I think in hindsight it’s going to be obvious. Google, Facebook, Twitter and a host of other (Anti) social media are the enablers of the coming Second American civil war. As Kendall claims,  we have been polarised for profit.

Think about it. Doesn’t everyone have at least one acquaintance who is rabidly anti - something who vents on Facebook? It matters not what the subject is; vaccination, animal testing, trans fats, pedophiles, the unpleasant waking thoughts of ordinarily normal polite people are detected and amplified by social media and transmitted around the world in seconds. How else does a stupid autistic teenager like Greta Thunberg get an audience?

This is what is termed in electronics as a feed back loop - infinite amplification of a tiny bit of noise into further noise that is again amplified into a howling scream until the machine destroys itself. This is what is driving Antifa and the left to greater and greater excesses, first of political correctness, then into cancel culture and now into riot and vandalism. It ain’t Marxism that’s doing this, it’s Facebook. I don’t see the protesters carrying Das Kapital or the little red book.

In my opinion, this was done initially for harmless profit, it’s now done for political power. The owners have discovered the strength of their AI’s ability to manipulate humans and, like all fallible creatures, decided to use it for what they consider to be noble ends - the perfection of humanity according to their own stars. Hence the amplifier knob of the left is turned up and the right is turned down. They also realize now that they are riding the tiger. Left alone, the general public and  Congress will eventually wake up to what has happened and break up or chain up the vicious amplifiers of social discord. That is what the defunct “fairness doctrine” was about. We need it back.

However it’s clear that the genie is out of the bottle and the world is going to receive an object lesson in the powers of electronic suggestion as America goads itself into a bloody civil war. It is also obvious that President Xi’s surveillance state is another example of the malign use of social media.

Don’t post this on Facebook.

 

Ruth Bader Ginsburg Dies By Walrus.

As if there isn’t enough uncertainty in the forthcoming elections, Ruth Bader Ginsburg has died. May she rest in peace. There is talk of a recess appointment since there is no way Congress will facilitate a Presidential nomination through normal procedures.

Who will President Trump nominate and how can an appointment be made?

We live in interesting times..  Walrus

Ambush Shooting Of Police In L.A. By Walrus.

I hope the general community rallies in support of two Police deputies ambushed and shot in Los Angeles.

https://abc7.com/2-lasd-deputies-ambushed-in-compton-shooting/6420532/

Failure to support the police in this matter will have a negative effect on what I will call “lower socioeconomic economic unprivileged groups”. They will experience disproportionately more crime if law enforcement capability is degraded compared to folk who can afford security.

The Deputies are a 31 year old mother of one and a 24 year old male who are now in serious conditions in hospital.

I hope that the perpetrator and everyone who supports or condones any attacks on Police get what they most richly deserve.

I hope the general community rallies in support of two Police deputies ambushed and shot in Los Angeles.

https://abc7.com/2-lasd-deputies-ambushed-in-compton-shooting/6420532/

Failure to support the police in this matter will have a negative effect on what I will call “lower socioeconomic economic unprivileged groups”. They will experience disproportionately more crime if law enforcement capability is degraded compared to folk who can afford security.

The Deputies are a 31 year old mother of one and a 24 year old male who are now in serious conditions in hospital.

I hope that the perpetrator and everyone who supports or condones any attacks on Police get what they most richly deserve.

A Reflection By Walrus.

Last July I was invited to lunch at the Middle Temple by a friend of mine, a slightly eccentric QC who is also a brilliant raconteur. The temple was originally the headquarters of the Knights Templar and after their disestablishment in 1312 it became the haven for lawyers it still is. The panelling in the dining hall is covered with the painted coats of arms of, I think, the original noble families although as my friend said, with a straight face, that it had been “redecorated” about 1600  pointing out half a dozen suits of Spanish armor, trophies from the armada, hanging under the high window sills.  We talked about his favourite subject - Brexit then the subject of violent political controversy, including murder, such as America is now experiencing.

The discussion ranged to the survival of society in such situations and my friend offered the following intelligence confided to him by a scion of a very old English family; when violent controversy arose in Britain, from the time before the Tudors, to the present day, the family rule was that the eldest son was always required to side with and support the opposing party while the family continued to support the conservative side. That way, as history proved,  the family had its interests somewhat protected, no matter who won. I would therefore like to suggest, in that same spirit if you like, for the benefit of our blood pressure and mental health,  that SST should consider the possibility, remote if you like,  that the Democrats, BLM, Tlaib, Ocasio-cortez, Sanders and even Antifa supporters may have some valid points, however vile their expression. In my opinion, such an understanding may lead to a way forward to the benefit of the country.

On a warning note, I fail to see how America can maintain its current economic and military dominance in the long term if the tensions now on display are not resolved. I suspect that maybe Gen. Milleys memo was an admission that such tensions already exist in parts of the armed services and if unchecked they will have a negative effect on effectiveness. There is no existential threat to bind us together in common defence at present.

Yes, I know the Democrats are vile scum sucking communists, so what? There are major issues that need to be addressed if America is going to continue to thrive. https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2020/08/the-en-banc-court-of-appeals-switches-and-denies-a-mandamus-in-the-michael-flynn-case.html and under the pressure of the pandemic these tensions are surfacing now. As a local nobel laureate has pointed out, these communities no longer have the energy and resilience to bootstrap themselves into a better life so parables about the American dream don’t help. They now have very little to lose and what’s worse they see the Amazon’s, Googles, Facebooks, AI, robots and other new technologies and their super rich overlords preparing to permanently suppress them as China is now doing to its citizens.

Make no mistake, the very rich lead a very scared existence and they will make use of their political power to protect themselves. The days when labourers - the vast portion of the population, were valuable enough to be listened to and paid a living wage are long gone. Left to themselves, our politicians and their rich and powerful backers are going to turn the majority of the population into serfs again, with credit cards and mobile phones if you will. I say again, look at China. Our overlords are looking too - with envy!

I think whoever is in power needs to focus on decent jobs, education, healthcare, infrastructure and of course good public administration. If we focus on buzz words, identity politics, political phobias like “fascism “ and “socialism” we are doomed. I also believe that despite his weaknesses, President Trump has a good understanding of what is required, a least better than his Democrat opponents, mired as they are in identity politics. 

The Kenosha Shooting By Walrus.

From 9000 miles away, I hope readers will forgive me for making two observations  about the Kenosha shooting of Jacob Blake.

(1) I don’t know for sure about American Police recruitment practices, but the old fashioned requirement here was that Police had to be Six feet tall or more and of a fitness and demeanour that was intimidating. Potential offenders knew that they were unlikely to be unscathed if they decided to argue with a member - that is without firearms.

Those requirements were modified many years ago to cater for “gender equality”. While fitness standards are still very high, there is nothing very  intimidating about a five foot something police person. This has led to more  than one offender deciding to argue and in the case linked below an irate female anti - masker allegedly smashing the head of a female police person into a concrete pavement several times before she was subdued.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mask-dodging-woman-allegedly-smashed-female-cop-s-head-into-concrete-20200804-p55ica.html

Folks, over here,  in my opinion, this is going to end in more Police shootings because other options, like physically subduing an offender are no longer available. My guess is that occupational health and safety considerations may eventually lead to higher physical police standards.

And Jacob Blake? Why wasn’t he flat on the ground within seconds of deciding to argue with a Police officer? He walked unimpeded around the car, with a Policeman scuttling behind him pathetically clutching at his shirt tail, then he appeared to reach in to his car - for what? 

(2) There are reports in the media, complete with video and sound, of various citizens of Kenosha allegedly firing warning shots to deter arsonists, rioters and looters. There are also allegedly video and sound of rioters threatening white property owners.

I am concerned that at some stage a potential victim is going to decide, rightly or wrongly, that enough is enough. They will shoot to kill and depending on their capabilities and the situation, a new tragedy will unfold. I don’t know enough to judge the temper of the community but the current situation has a number of outcomes that are not going to be pleasant for the black community or the protesting groups. I am reminded of the anti - Chinese riots in the Australian goldfields from 1857 - 1861.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambing_Flat_riots

What can be done to defuse the situation?

AI In Warfare By Walrus.

The defence press is reporting that an AI shot down a top F16 pilot in a dog fight simulation on 20th August.

“In a 5 to 0 sweep, an AI ‘pilot’ developed by Heron Systems beat one of the Air Force’s top F-16 fighter pilots in DARPA’s simulated aerial dogfight contest today.“

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/08/ai-slays-top-f-16-pilot-in-darpa-dogfight-simulation/

I have been vaguely aware of a few “advances” such as the development of F16 drones, talk of swarming robots, etc. but I’ve not been following it much, until now.

What concerns me is that we are on the cusp of another arms race. In my opinion that in itself is not necessarily a bad thing, depending on your politics. However there is one added factor that should give pause for thought - possession of nuclear weapons.

In all previous wars despite the damage and mayhem, the planetary environment remained relatively intact afterwards and healed, for example you have to look quite hard for traces of WWI, WWII and Vietnam, etc. With the advent of AI we are potentially introducing a major asymmetry. This time though, the losing player may have the option of ending human life on a very large part of the planet for a very long time.

For example, in 1944 as the Russian Army closed in on Berlin, had Germany possessed a few immobile nuclear weapons, would Hitler have decided to take Europe with him to his grave? I think so. 

Diplomatic and strategic skills of a very high order are going to be needed to avoid a losing nuclear power from overturning the chess board. I don’t think any country possesses them. What sayeth SST?

And Now For Something Completely Different By Walrus.

I am an occasional devotee of music with somewhat eclectic taste. As a child I sang in a reasonably well trained choir - well enough to be offered a scholarship.

My tastes have moved past the sublime Mozart towards Mahler (a distant relative) and on to the British composers; Elgar and later Vaughan Williams. Once you get past the jingoistic popularities there are hidden gems.

I commend what I consider to be one to you: Vaughan Williams “A Sea Symphony” (1909) - inspired by American Poet Walt Whitman’s “Leaves of Grass” (1855).

The link below is to a Youtube video of the BBC Proms performance (2013) with a stunning choir including the Halle and orchestra conducted by Sakari Oramo with Roderick Williams and Sally Mathews soloists.

If anything it should convince you that genius is not a new phenomenon and perhaps give you some enjoyment in these dark times. I would be overjoyed if it provoked musical exploration at SST.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lp4G5vtdSWc

Gen. Milley, CJCS, Is Off The Reservation By Walrus.

Gen. Milley has weighed in on the subject of military bases whose names are associated with the Confederacy. He also adds some value judgements, presumably his own, regarding Confederate Officers and soldiers:

“Like the country it serves, the U.S. military is fighting an internal battle against racism, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said Thursday, but old names and symbols of that enemy are present and strong enough to sow division.

“Divisiveness leads to defeat,” Milley told the House Armed Services Committee.

“There is no place in our armed forces … for symbols of racism, bias or discrimination.”

The Civil War was an “act of treason,” he said. The south’s military leaders betrayed their nation profoundly, and still, many military installations bear their names, according to Milley.

“It was an act of treason at the time against the union, against the stars and stripes, against the U.S. Constitution, and those officers turned their back on their oath.”

He goes on to support the removal of Confederate names and presumably symbols from the defence forces.

 

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I am unlettered in the details of the War Between The States. I would have thought however that the treason charge is unsupportable.

 

I think it is plain now that Miley is explicitly supporting BLM and the revolutionaries. The least we can deduce is that he will try to prevent any Federal military intervention in what might pass for domestic insurrection. In other words, he appears to be a supporter of Antifa and the associated mob rule. Perhaps worse, citizens militias could find the American military arrayed against them.

 

An alternative explanation might be is that he is concerned regarding preserving the loyalty, cohesiveness and morale of military units to the point of appeasement, or is he an aspiring politician?

 

I know not which. I do think though that this is ominous. I am reminded of the Imperial Russian army that refused to take action in St. Petersburg during the Russian revolution. They sat back and watched as the revolutionaries made the country ungovernable. What sayeth SST?

 

Read more here: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/nation-world/national/article244124662.html#storylink=cpy

Fire Callout. By Walrus.

I received the following emergency alert fire brigade call out a few hours ago. We raced to the station in the freezing night cold only to discover it was a false alarm. Being in Australia, our dispatchers weren’t thinking about the date. Happy Fourth of July!

 

Ghislaine Maxwell Arrested By Walrus.

There are numerous reports that Ghislaine Maxwell has been arrested accused of being an accessory or enabler of Geoffrey Epstein’s alleged criminal sexual behaviour. We already know that there are allegations that Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton and a host of other high profile individuals were associates of Epstein and would have been aware of his proclivities, if not sharing them. They are thus vulnerable to blackmail.

Maxwell, as Epstein’s best friend and alleged procurer of underage girls, would after Epstein, know more about his activities than anyone else. Given that Epstein allegedly conveniently “committed suicide” in jail under suspicious circumstances, I think that Maxwell’s life must also be considered to be under threat. I imagine that she will be placed in custody where she will remain until a convincing death can be arranged. Perhaps she will catch Covid19.

I also wonder why she was allegedly hiding in New Hampshire. I would have thought her safest destination was Israel, a country where I think she might be safer and capable of making extradition quite difficult.

Given the evidence of the FBI operations labelled as Russiagate - based as we now know on the flimsiest of evidence if you could even all it that, and considering the national importance of the potential blackmail targets,  one wonders what resources they would be putting into investigating the cases of Epstein and Maxwell? What do SST members think?

Another Piece Of The Covid19 Puzzle By Walrus.

At a celebratory lunch last weekend Covid19 was discussed, this was not unusual as our restaurant was operating under pandemic social distancing rules. A friend remarked that they had been warned about Covid19 as a result of a meeting, connected with a sporting club we both belong to, by another acquaintance “between Christmas and New Year’s Eve ”. 

I asked twice about the dates - they were adamant about them. It was before January. The content of the warning was also specific - “potential pandemic and you are not to book the cruise you are contemplating.”

I am familiar with conspiracy theory construction: dancing Israelis, cryptic warnings not to go to work on 9/11, etc. However I had a name and I have checked the profession of the alleged source of the warning - it’s a senior virologist, so that part is credible.

I have not checked the date of the meeting which I might be able to do. However if the dates stack up, there was international professional notice in virology circles of what has become Covid19 before China’s announcement on New Year’s eve.

I imagine that the intelligence community has a much better understanding of exactly what has happened than I do, but if substantiated, this tidbit is further evidence that China has a case to answer for not officially alerting the WHO sooner. The Australian economy is already experiencing the consequences of Chinese Government displeasure for our support for an international inquiry into this matter.

The lunch was excellent. I had two glasses of Torbreck Shiraz.

Has “The Deep State” Won? By Walrus.

I want to advance a fanciful theory - an extension of Col. Lang’s question; Perhaps money talks. The test is at the end of this post.

Suppose some very rich folks bought the majority of American media. They control that by influencing who is hired, promoted and fired throughout their networks. Smaller players, internet businesses, etc. are dependent on the larger players for content. They are similarly controlled by the big players.

Now suppose there is also a global foundation, operated by the most skilled politicians of their era. Their business model is simple. They control and operate a global influence network. People with money can buy influence from this network. 

The network, which we will call “the respectable tendency”, to borrow Andrew Roberts term, extends deep into worldwide media and perhaps more importantly, public services around the globe. Of course all of this is benign because the purpose of this endeavor is the advancement of planetary human well being. To this end it seamlessly creates or combines with a variety of good causes, to advance its agenda, for example, the advancement of women, minority rights, gay rights, the environmental movement.

Now we come to practical matters.  As the behaviourists posit: “where you stand is where you sit” - Miles Law. The foundation lives by this saying and drives it deep into every organ it touches. Be aware that when the foundation touches you it makes a Faustian bargain. You do something for it, one day it returns the favor. For example,  you might be asked as a civil servant to do something that is perhaps borderline corrupt.  You are found out but no matter; you reappear as a professor at a prestigious University, or a fellow at a think tank, or a media personality on a Tee Vee network or perhaps a judge. The foundation takes great care to ensure it keeps its end of the bargain. It also publicly destroys the careers of those that reject its overtures using whatever weapon comes to hand, for example sexual innuendo, allegations of discrimination, whatever. Fear and greed are its tools.

Lets assume that the foundation has had almost total success in recruiting Congress and the higher ranks of the career public service. There are two exceptions; the first is President Trump who is fireproof against the entreaties of the foundation. More about the other later.

So now let’s look at the events of Trumps Presidency through this lense.

Russiagate - explained.

The illegal and obvious judicial persecution of Flynn and others who have associated with Trump - explained.

The conversion and public recantings of former Trump appointees - explained.

The criticisms of Trump and public professions of love for foundation causes like #metoo and BLM by senior business leaders - explained.

The deliberate frustration of President Trumps agenda by Congress - explained.

The relentless and unjustified criticism of Trump by the media - explained.

As a vignette;  Why even today Trumps decision to pull troops out of Germany is criticized by MSN for breaking up a happy relationship with a German town:

”President Donald Trump’s directive to pull 9,500 troops from Germany hits home hard for friends of America like Edgar Knobloch, whose Bavarian town has been home to U.S. service members for seven decades.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-e2-80-99s-troop-plan-stuns-germany-and-rocks-the-postwar-order/ar-BB158oIy

  ===============

So now we come to recent events. 

The criticism of Trump for his Covid19 response, first not fast enough, then too fast and hard - explained.

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So now we come to George Floyd. The black community, deliberately oversensitised by the media to the statistically insignificant problem of Police brutality against blacks, arcs up.  Their lawmakers, sensing the foundations approval, amplify the BLM message. After all, this is a ticket to righteous reelection or maybe a seat in Congress courtesy of the foundation.

The blacks start looting. President Trump calls for the rule of law to be upheld and promises military assistance if necessary. The foundation springs the trap. This is no longer about BLM, this is about HIM. The media comply.

Actions taken as part of this foundation agenda are deliberate and designed to create a climate of fear, uncertainty and doubt in all Americans.

Threats to defund the police in various states are false. What they are designed to achieve is the perversion of police forces into instruments of political control. The first requirement being the suppression of any white backlash against the black mobs. That is about militias and gun control.

Expect to see more media censorship of anything that contradicts BLM, #metoo, or any other foundation pet cause.

Expect to see more lawmakers, public servants and personalities publicly denounce Trump.

Expect to see each and every national business leader pledge fealty to the foundation on penalty of the destruction of their businesses, careers or both. This will then morph into a requirement to “donate” to BLM and similar good causes as is practiced in most third world countries. That is followed by a requirement to hire and promote minority members for no good reason except political safety.

Expect all investigations into possible malpractice by foundation operatives to stop.

All public institutions will be required to pledge fealty to the foundation, the Universities did this thirty years ago.

Trump, if he is even Presidential Candidate is going to be facing Joe Biden and...Michelle Obama.

The more probable Republican candidate is Romney, who will lose.

=================

And now the exception. The United States Defence Forces. The CJCS Gen. Miley, will now be under intense pressure from the foundation to distance himself as far as possible from the President, perhaps to the point of insubordination. This is a “five days in May 1940” moment although we may never know.

The pressure already got to Esper who folded. The pressure on Miley, IMHO, will be coming from his colleagues and the next rank below them and take the form of extreme fear of massive budget cuts foreshadowed by foundation lawmakers unless the defence forces disavow their Commander in Chief.

===============

The test to watch is which way our Rupert Murdoch jumps. He is renowned for his extremely accurate political antennae. 

 

Flynn - Perjury? Emmet Sullivan Doubles Down By Walrus.

Firstly, Larry Johnson and Robert Willmann know more about this case than I do. It now appears, if this report today is to be believed, that Emmett Sullivan is now inclined to charge General Flynn with contempt of court and perjury. I have to ask; for what? This is Kafkaesque.

For agreeing to a plea deal that Flynn knew was false? For failing to plead innocence? For reversing his plea when it was demonstrated that the prosecution case against him was utterly untrue and corrupt?

“Judge”, I use the term loosely, Sullivan seems to be so ensnared in the coils of judicial procedure that he has forgotten that truth and justice matter. That is the nicest construct I can put on it. I think it’s time for Sidney Powell to rip this judge to shreds. I await Larry and Roberts comments.

https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/federal-judge-orders-arguments-on-whether-michael-flynn-should-be-jailed-for-perjury/

 

Tara Reade - Biden Has Some Explaining To Do; By Walrus

“A court declaration from 1996 corroborates former Biden staffer Tara Reade's claim that she was sexually harassed while working for him in 1993, according to the Sacramento Bee.”

It seems that the Obama team and the Biden campaign missed one record when they were vetting and polishing Creepy Joes image; a filing for her divorce petition in 1996 in which her husband at the time refers to the sexual harassment (or worse) incident prior to their marriage and names Biden as the perpetrator.

IMHO, this opens the way for HRC to “save” the nation from another Trump Presidency. I also wonder about the existence of any statute of limitations on sex crimes.

I wonder how long the existence of this document has been known and by whom? I have my suspicions.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/1996-court-filing-corroborates-biden-accusers-claim-she-was-harassed

 

Running While Black By Walrus.

I don’t quite know how to describe the death of Ahmaud Arbery apart from calling it a tragedy. There are any number of articles containing every sort of view possible. Lest someone complain about my observation, I regard this death as a tragedy for the alleged killers, their friends and supporters, the black community and perhaps others who may yet become involved in this mess.

The reports seem to allege that Armhaud Arbery had been linked to burglaries in the local area. He was seen running - the press uses the term “jogging”, it is not clear if this was his neighbourhood but that is a secondary and ultimately unimportant point. Three white men armed themselves and apparently gave chase. Arbery was stopped, an armed struggle ensued and he was shot dead.

Allegedly no Georgia laws were broken by the pursuers. Open carry is legal. So is citizens arrest. So is the use of deadly force in defense. Arbery had a criminal record but the pursuers didn’t know that.

I am reminded of the Trayvon Martin case. I think that also pivoted on suspicion of criminal activity as a justification for the premeditated use of deadly force.

I think it is valid to ask the question: just how is a black person supposed to respond to white men, not officers, carrying guns? What would have happened if Arbery had been armed and, in fear for his own life, shot and killed his attackers? What if the pursuers had also been black? Are incidents like these an unfortunate, predictable and consequential outcome of the Second Amendment that have to be born lest tyranny reappear?

If this is not a fit subject for discussion at SST, I will be happy for this post to be deleted.

 

ANZAC Day 2020 By Walrus.

Today, the morning of the 25th, I planned to March with my Battalion Association in Melbourne. I wanted to see how many were still alive and attend the traditional ANZAC day football match at the MCG. My wife is an MCC member.

But those plans were made in December - pre Covid19. The marches, services, barbecues and football are cancelled. They want to save all us old farts.

The last time I marched was about 1970. It was a duty back then. The battalion practiced for weeks. We were bored by it all and the constant complaining about militarism from the Anti Vietnam protesters.

I think it was that year, as the youngest officer, I carried the Regimental colors. About three days before the march a University colleague told us that a group of Melbourne University protestors were planning to interrupt the march mid city and try to seize the Colors. I told this guy to tell his friends they would find out that the fixed bayonets of the color guard were not for decoration nor was my sword, even if it didn’t have an edge. I wasn’t joking. We were unmolested.

This ANZAC day, think of the frontline healthcare staff who are fighting our battles for us as well as our troops overseas. Think of them and the battles to come.

Donald Trump - A Great President By Walrus.

This is not an April Fool joke. I spent the best part of Two hours this morning watching the live briefing (31/3) to the press by President  Trump and his Coronavirus taskforce. You are a very lucky country to have that man leading you during this Coronavirus pandemic. Whatever his faults and foibles he is a great President, even if he does nothing else than what is already done.

What came through loud and clear was the pure leadership ability  of President Trump. He let his team speak for him and while the situation is stark - a best case estimate of some 100,000 deaths, there is solid evidence that there is a plan. It is working. The American "Can Do" attitude is taking hold very quickly and the team is firing on all cylinders. Trump ain't Churchill. But then Churchill didn't have the ability to pull a team together like Trump has.

I will not go into specifics except for one question later. The plan is more social distancing for another Thirty days. During that period we are going to see a lot of people die, no matter what. Medical supplies and resources are being found or manufactured and being deployed where they are needed most. The defence forces are being employed to help. Deaths will lag action, so what is done today won't show for two weeks. Drug treatments are being trialed. Vaccines are  under development. However the message is clear. We will get through this and emerge stronger than ever.

I was not impressed much by the hostility of Press. I think President Trump handled their questions very well and showed  considerable mastery of the details, if necessary deferring to the doctors and Vice President Pence - another surprisingly capable leader.

The matter I want to raise comes out of a press question, I forget which media company asked it; "What would be the death rate without the mitigation measures now in place and Trumps early travel bans?" The answer to that was over two million Americans. In answering the question Trump stated that he had been under early pressure from people, presumably advisers and lobbyists, just to "ride it out" - do nothing, carry on with business and accept the casualties. It was already clear even then that the casualties in such an event would be older Americans, the poor, the sick.

I want to know who advised him to do nothing?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyp0KpB0_Zc

I suggest you watch it yourself.

 

Coronavirus - A Laymans Update By Walrus.

On 16 March Australian researchers announced the "successful" trial of an anti viral drug and Chloroquine mixture to treat hospitalised Coronavirus patients.

Latest advice this morning (Fri 2200 UTC) is that trials will start in 50 Australian hospitals next week. I would imagine that these are effectively telescoped phase two or phase three trials. I understand that China and the USA may also be conducting, or about to conduct, similar trials, the science is moving too fast to tell at the moment. If they are successful, providing certain conditions are met, then we may have the first weapon against Coronavirus apart from social distancing.

Those "certain conditions" are clinical, commercial and political. I don't know much about the clinical except to say I would hope such a treatment, if successful,  might at least take pressure off ICUs.

I am more concerned about commercial temptations, particularly if big Pharma scents there is money to be made. A treatment would probably be the subject of a Use Patent. Then there is the question of manufacture supply and distribution. I am also concerned about political pressure; it would be a tragedy if such a drug, if it ever exists, were used as a geopolitical weapon.

I apologise in advance if this is old news. I commenters will avoid the temptation to "go nationalistic"; yes, your country may have done this three weeks ago, but it's news to me and I hope its good news to you.

https://www.newsweek.com/testing-coronavirus-cure-set-start-australia-weeks-first-participant-us-vaccine-trial-due-1492437

As far as Australia is concerned, borders are closed to non residents. Outward travel is discouraged. Social distancing is encouraged, arrivals are quarantined for two weeks and major gatherings prohibited. Cafes, restaurants, theatres, sports, etc. are dead. There will no doubt be more restrictions announced next week.

From my perspective as a retired person of advanced years, the Government has moved too slowly. However if I was a young newly unemployed hospitality worker I would be forgiven for thinking the government is overreacting. The political task of navigating the pandemic is daunting. The policy seems to be one of gradualism so as not to cause general panic.

Indications are however that the police and defence forces are preparing for the possibility of social disorder, at least in the cities. It would be a brave and foolhardy criminal who ventured into our rural neighborhood.

We are confining our selves to our lovely 40 acres. I have a tennis court sized vegetable garden to tend. We have plenty of food and with our neighbors, we have access to plenty of meat if required.

I hope you are similarly prepared.

A Short Note On Coronavirus COVID-19 By Walrus.

I attended a private briefing today on the Wuhan Coronavirus (the virus) that I think I should share with the Committee. This information is as reliable and accurate as it gets. I should have taken notes. I apologise in advance for errors and omissions.

The timeline of the discovery of Covid -19 was detailed. I can't remember all the dates but more about that later. The alarm was raised by a Chinese doctor in Wuhan reporting via Promed (the infectious disease bulletin board) of some 50 "anomalous pneumonia" cases clustered in the Wuhan wet market (fish and edible animals) on or about December 31.  The World Health Organisation (WHO) was notified the same day. It is understood that known causes (SARS, etc.) had been ruled out. The "index case" was reportedly identified on December 1.

Samples were obtained from China in the first few days of January by an Australian laboratory specializing in identification of new virii (note: this would have required the negotiation of a materials transfer agreement to protect  future access to IP, etc..)  Tests in China and perhaps elsewhere failed to identify the virus but the Australian lab had developed wide spectrum specialised tests and identified it as a Coronavirus. Further testing was done by a world expert on SARS  and others  who couldn't identify it as an existing type. On or about 10th January the researchers in Australia and elsewhere  concluded it was a new virus.  On 14 January China introduced temperature scanning. This was very fast work by China and the researchers.

The Australian lab sequenced the virus and from samples received on 24 Jan announced on 29 Jan that they were successfully growing the virus in vitro. Samples have been sent to other researchers around the world for confirmation and further work.

Comment: The virology timeline dates I saw indicated a very tightly linked set of actions by China, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and researchers once the alarm was raised.. By that I mean that China and the WHO responded and acted almost immediately - within one or two days, as new information was received and have and still are actively and openly communicating and assisting with further research.

In my opinion, such openness, honesty and actions are totally inconsistent with any of the multitude of conspiracy theories currently advanced.

So much for the virology.......

On the epidemiological front, there is also interesting news. The first is researcher opinion that this virus has probably been circulating at least in November and possibly in October.   It is also believed that the mathematical models show that there are perhaps Ten times the cases world wide than are officially recorded. This partly because some cases are asymptomatic and currently available tests indicate false negative results. This is good news for the case fatality rate if proven because it is ten times less lethal than we currently estimate.

The researchers believe that the virus originated in Bats (notorious RNA Coronavirus carriers) and then infected Wuhan wet market produce - Pangolins, which then infected people. The initial cases were a group of men in the Wuhan wet market -which is also the cause of the error that the virus attacks men more than women, there are few female market workers. The apparent evidence for this is that large quantities of the virus have been found on the trading floor of another Wuhan wet market - the original Wuhan wet market was perhaps disinfected and its now demolished. (So much for the "bio weapon" BS.)

The best prevention against getting this virus is simple: WASH YOUR HANDS REGULARLY AND DON'T TOUCH YOUR FACE. The virus lived on surfaces for at least Nine  days. Things like public door handles, lift buttons, stair rails, supermarket trolleys, etc. that are touched by thousands of people daily are going to in all probability carry the virus. The virus can't get through dry skin, but if you rub your eye or suchlike the virus can get at your living tissue. Faeces may also be a route. Clean toilets. Mask are a waste of time and money except in special .

Michael Bloomberg - Idiot By Walrus.

Michael Bloomberg really did disparage farmers and metalworkers by saying that these are just “processes” that can be taught to anyone and then stating that information technology work requires a higher order of brainpower, implying that farmers and metalworkers are inferior to information technology professionals. I heard it myself.

Michael thus displays total and fundamental ignorance of both farming and metalwork but it’s worse. Michael made his fortune simply by collecting unprocessed financial information and then selling it to end users. Farmers and metalworkers go at least one step further. They actually use information technology not only to collect information like Michael, but act on it to provide value - something Michael doesn’t do.

Take farmers for example; they don’t just “dig a hole, put seed in and wait for corn to come up”, as Michael thinks; For a start, last years corn harvest was performed by a $300,000 machine which is not only GPS enabled and automatically steered, but it logs the corn yield per individual acre. When it’s time to plant the following year, the farmer processes the yield data using agricultural algorithms to determine the exact optimum fertilizer dosage for that acre and another $300,000 machine applies that fertilizer and plants the seed automatically. Then of course he monitors his crop with satellite weather and would be using an internet enabled irrigation system to apply the optimum amount of water. Naturally she would also be using financial systems to hedge or forward sell her crop.

A friend nearby owns a cattle property. He was looking to buy a hobby farm when a local made a disparaging comment to him in a bar about “city slickers”. He now has 6000 acres of state of the art cattle growing property and that is so computerized that delegations come from overseas to visit.

So much for dumb farmers.....

The story of metalwork is exactly the same. We no longer have “blueprints”. We use seven axis computerized machine tools, stereolithography, robotics, computer aided design and now nano-scale machine systems that make the very systems of hardware that Bloombergs programs run.

Bloomberg is an idiot. Anyone can be taught to code. Not everyone can be a farmer or a metalworker. That requires real brainpower. The Democrat party once again shows how completely out of touch it is by entertaining this candidacy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/18/democrats-still-have-deplorables-problem-mike-bloomberg-is-making-it-worse/

The Fires By Walrus.

I am a member of august clubs and societies around the world but the membership I most treasure is that of a volunteer fire fighter in the local brigade. To be judged worthy of a place on the fire ground is, to me, the child of immigrants, a pearl beyond price precisely because it is awarded, not by the great and good, but by tradesman, farmers, shopkeepers - the least in society who have judged me capable of serving the community. I am so proud. A month ago I was part of a strike team sent to Northern New South Wales for a week to grapple with their fires, I even got a lift home in a C17 Globemaster.

We are currently facing bushfires near us affecting five times the size of last years California blazes  - 500,000 Hectares, 1.2 million acres across the Northeast of Victoria and into New South Wales. Our truck was called out to join a strike team of five tankers at seven am on New Years Eve to go about a hundred miles north to grapple with the edge of the monster which we did, leaving our tanker for a changeover crew early on New Years day.

Today is the critical day for us. We are forecast to experience a hot gusty dry North wind and about midday to receive a violent, gusty Southwest change which will change fire directions over ninety degrees. There are at least two dead and twenty plus missing. Two young Firefighters were also killed when a "fire tornado" overturned their ten ton truck. The Northeast  has been declared a disaster area and been under evacuation orders for days except for those who want to try to defend their homes. The Defence forces are helping, a Navy ship has just lifted a thousand from a remote beach community, however helicopter operations are hampered by a smoke cloud that stretches all the way to New Zealand.. No doubt more will follow because these fires struck at the height of the summer holiday season. Most tourists have followed advice and evacuated themselves. Only some locals, firefighters and the odd idiot remain. There are some communities cut off who must try to shelter in place.

The fear of the command - that we hope is not realised, is that these dozens of out of control fires are going to join together and create a firestorm of a size not seen before by humans. The scientists have stated that their models cannot predict what is going to happen, these big fires create their own weather. Our efforts today are focused on lives and critical infrastructure. Hopefully their concerns aren't realised. Hopefully our brigade, with its replacement truck, will be held in reserve, ready to defend our local area. Hopefully there are enough young crew so that they don't need an old fart like me today and hopefully are domestic fire precautions will not be needed to defend our home.

My policeman son rang this morning to say he now understands why the emergency services managers are paid so much. They are probably going to have to explain to a coroner what they did today.

The cause of these fires? Australian drought and the highly inflammable nature of the Eucalyptus tree - coupled with the forest management fantasies of inner city liberals who won't allow anything like the levels of fire reduction burning as practiced by our Aborigines for thousands of years. The greenies can't handle simple logic; Eucalyptus forests shed fuel all the time. You can have little "cool' fires every five years to clean up the fuel or a big fire every few decades, but you eventually will get a fire. You do the maths.

I hopefully will be able to write an anti climactic comment tomorrow for you.

Qasem Suleimani, Assassinated In US Airstrike By Walrus.

Multiple news sources are reporting the assassination, near Baghdad Airport, of Suliemani, the leader of Irans Quds force. Some commentators are saying that this is "bigger than killing Bin Laden".  According to the Pentagon, the assassination was at the direct command of President Trump. I am afraid this event, allegedly taken to forestall further attacks on US forces in Iraq, may have unintended consequences.

To me, the logic of Trump in doing this is unfathomable. Did he intend to provoke Iran and the Russians? What did he expect to achieve? Clearly the stress on the Iraqi Government is going to be extreme. How has this assassination improved the security of U.S. forces in the region? What does the Committee think?

A Short Note On Epstein By Walrus.

My father, a former intelligence person during WWII, explained to me that if a secret is to be preserved, two links in the chain of evidence, not just one, need to be broken.

Many of us predicted that Epstein, as a serial blackmailer of the rich and influential, would not live for very long in jail, yet I was still surprised at the speed of his demise. We discussed this in some detail in August.

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2019/08/epstein-killed-himself-sure-he-did-cui-bono.html

I now note that two prison guards have been arrested and charged over apparent administrative failures surrounding Epsteins "suicide".

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/19/us/jeffrey-epstein-guard-charge/index.html

My fathers dictum suggests that the two guards are unlikely to stay alive if they were in any way willing accomplices in what was perhaps a murder.

Ghislaine Maxwell? If she is smart, she will bury herself in a kibbutz in deepest Israel. I don't think she has the ability to make the trade of her continued life in the West for silence.

Beware False Flag Attacks - Opinion by Walrus.

The corollary to the Houthis brilliant use of do - it - yourself drones and perhaps cruise missiles, is that anyone else can do the same. This makes the possibility of false flag attacks using such weapons more likely in my opinion. Such attacks would not even necessarily require the resources of a State actor to execute, all the materials, bar perhaps the explosive, are freely available around the globe.

I will not explain the mechanics of manufacturing such weapons. Take it from me that a group of determined hobbyists could do so, provided they have sufficient security and money. Such weapons could be labeled for example “made in Iran” in such depth that it would be impossible to refute their origin, no matter how good ones forensics are.

A State actor, perhaps bent on mischief, could do this rather quickly. While this is just a guess, I would be surprised if various Western countries security services did not already have an operation underway to replicate the Houthi achievements, if only to answer the politicians question: “How did they do that??” and to start thinking about countermeasures.

My reason for being concerned enough to raise this topic is that President Trump has committed troops to Saudi Arabia and we already have other troops and assets in the region. If they were subject to attack and we took casualties, I don’t see how the President could avoid war assuming Iran was blamed.

What triggered me was this article in the WSJ (paywalled) whose opening sentence is:

"Yemeni Rebels Warn Iran Plans Another Strike Soon

“BEIRUT—Houthi militants in Yemen have warned foreign diplomats that Iran is preparing a follow-up strike to the missile and drone attack that crippled Saudi Arabia’s oil industry a week ago, people familiar with the matter said.

Leaders of the group said they were raising the alarm about the possible new attack after they were pressed by Iran to play a role in it”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/yemeni-rebels-warn-iran-plans-another-strike-soon-11569105344

Once technology is out of the box, as the Houthis have demonstrated, it can’t be returned. How do we avoid false flag attacks?"

 

Peacemaker Bolton Quits by Walrus.

It seems that another voice for peace and moderation in foreign policy has abandoned the Trump Administration. John Bolton has quit as National Security Advisor. It sounds to me like the constant calls for a more aggressive, warlike, stance from President Trump eventually became too much for this peace loving gentle flower child and he has taken a principled stand and resigned.

Who should the Administration now call on to provide some restraint on the Presidents warlike impulses?

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-fires-national-security-adviser-john-bolton-n1051986

 

 

Trumps Trade War - Still Easy To Win? by Walrus.

I have stated before that free trade is a good idea that enriches all participants. I think I understand that President Trump does not agree.

His latest tweetstorm on the subject seems to me to contain an element of desperation. Each tariff  he imposes stimulates a new Chinese response.

But wait! You say, what about all those new American jobs? Surely that’s a good thing? Sadly it ain’t because you lose jobs in areas that can no longer compete because of higher local American input prices.

Then of course there is the job loss caused by China refusing to buy American agricultural products like soybeans. AhHa! you say “but the government can compensate the farmers out of tariff revenue” Of course this is true, but you have just allowed the Federal Government to set a proportion of farmers income. Guess how well that works?

The direct job losses are only a first order effect and the need for farm subsidies is a second order  effect. You will see more of those second order effects shortly - government subsidies to folks injured by our trade war. They cost lots of money and take oodles of public servants to administer. Then add in the lawyers and slime balls gaming the system and you can have some real fun.

The real problem your children will see are the third order effects -  loss of competitiveness, stagnation, poor exports. You will have jobs but they won’t pay very well. This happens for a simple reason; if you are the manager of a business protected behind a tariff wall and you want to raise profits you have two choices; invest in R&D, buy new plant and equipment to become more efficient or lobby Washington to raise tariffs 5%. Guess which option is cheaper and faster?

I lived in a protected economy. You get frustrated by seeing cheaper and better products available overseas while you are constrained to buy expensive shoddy local product, it takes about 20 years to reach that point.

Its rather like drug addiction; the initial high, then larger and larger doses to keep “up” then the gradual health decline as the drug use affects the body. Good luck with being a closed economy, you are going to need it.

P.S. All that stuff about stealing intellectual property is puffery. We all do it, any way we can, as much as we can. China steals from us. We steal from China. Who cares?

Fedor The Russian Robot Launches For The ISS by Walrus.

I know that NASA first put a robot into space but I am captivated by “Fedor” the Russian robot who was launched today for the ISS in his own Soyuz ship. Yes, I know I shouldn’t anthropomorphise, but I like this guy. He has his own twitter and instagram accounts.

https://www.usatoday.com/media/cinematic/video/2082924001/russia-sends-fedor-its-first--robot-into-space/

https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/fedor?lang=en

https://www.instagram.com/robot_fedor_kosmos/?hl=en

Boeing - Sleazy Deal Confirms Downfall By Walrus.

I have been a lifelong fan of Boeing commercial aircraft. I’ve done business with them, watched them build aircraft, benefitted from their wonderful product support and generally enjoyed working with a great bunch of guys.

I was less than thrilled when they bought/merged with McDonnell Douglas, sad when I heard about the headquarters move, sadder when the dreamliner program had hiccups and downright horrified by the B737MAX debacle, especially after the management role in the matter was revealed. 

Just when I thought that the B737 mess couldn’t get much worse Boeing has now allegedly made an offer to the victims of the two African tragedies as follows according to zerohedge: - $50 million to the victims and $50 million to the two governments concerned for “community development and education”.

Folks, I’ve had shitty deals like that put to me. The $50 million to government is a straight out bribe. It’s designed to make them shut up and also pressure the victim families to take the deal. Naturally, most, if not all, of the government share will be siphoned off by corrupt officials. Boeing must know that.

I now relegate Boeing to the list of sleaze merchants. They have now demonstrated a completely cynical approach to aircraft production which is utterly opposed to the pursuit of real aviation safety - something Boeing used to be famous for. Not any more.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-17/boeing-thinks-human-life-worth-just-150000

On The Slippery Slope. By Walrus.

The NYT is reporting that President Trump set what sounds like a “Surgical Strike” against Iranian military targets in motion but checked fire at the last minute.

This action was allegedly in response to Iran’s  downing of an American drone in international waters off Hormuz.

The veracity of the NYT is open to question however this report is in accordance with my own confirmation bias because it sounds like a replay of Kaiser Wilhelms last minute remorse after irreversibly setting in motion the 1914 mobilisation. In 2019, thanks to modern communications, President Trump was able to releash the dogs of war.

My concern is that President Trump does not take action that plunges us into an irrevocable war. The tanker attacks look to me like gifted amateurs armed with no more than tape, C4, timers and speaker magnets. I mean - Dastardly Iranian saboteurs in bright red life jackets?? This reminds me of the story of The Elephant and The Gnat.

The Iranian actions and our responses may prove pure fantasy. I would like to think that older and wiser heads are in charge and sober calculus is at work. The truth may be far funnier and sadder.

What says the Committee?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-approves-strikes-on-iran-but-then-abruptly-pulls-back/ar-AADaA3K?li=BBnb7Kz

Attacking Russian Power Grid ??? By Walrus.

“The NYT in an article is alleging that The United States Government has deliberately and with malice and forethought inserted unspecified computer malware into the Russian Federation power grid infrastructure with the obvious intention of destroying or severely damaging it if needed.

”But now the American strategy has shifted more toward offense, officials say, with the placement of potentially crippling malware inside the Russian system at a depth and with an aggressiveness that had never been tried before. It is intended partly as a warning, and partly to be poised to conduct cyberstrikes if a major conflict broke out between Washington and Moscow.“

My opinion, if the article is true, which I doubt, is that such an operation would constitute an act of war. As such the Russian reaction, if they believed this to be true, could be, to put it mildly, “disproportionate”. 

To put that another way, it is one thing to dick around in the shadows, but to overtly engage in what amounts to life threatening attacks on civilians? Folks, how are you going to feel if Russia puts missiles back in Cuba? That is on the same scale of action as this alleged stunt.

It also begs the question of the likelihood of any meaningful negotiations with Russia, or China over anything at all.

What does the committee think?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-escalates-online-attacks-on-russias-power-grid/ar-AACV9BZ

"Face" By Walrus.

My Father traded in Asia from 1935 to 1942 and then from about 1953 to 1990. I was privy to many discussions and engagements with our customers over the years as well my transactions in my own right. I don't think the Washington decision makers, as opposed to perhaps career Sinologists in the State Department, quite understand the dynamics of the Trump Administrations relationship with China and the risks America appears to be running. The bit that seems to be missing is a realistic appreciation of "Face".

A quick search of the internet reveals scholarly definitions of  "Face" together with the description of it in socio - cultural terms that in my opinion do not do it justice. Couple that with Western insensitivity, NeoCon hubris and Trumps preference for believing everything is a negotiable transaction and we are set up for a monumental falling out with China that has lethal consequences for America.

I will give a few examples of Face, you can find plenty more on your own.  Did you know it is an insult to request a Chinese to sign a written contract? If he has agreed to the terms and said as much in front of other Chinese then that is enough. "Face" does the rest. Did you know that in certain circumstances "Face" requires you to lie to, or ignore, authorities in support of family and friends? This last, in my opinion, is the reason for the current Chinese attempt at omnipresent surveillance; "we tremble at the power of the Emperor in Peking, but the mountains are high".

Col. Lang makes the point that the Japanese went to war to dispel the threatened perception that "they weren't the men they thought they were". Well with "Face' in China its more than that, you are your "Face". To  damage someones "Face" is to create a lifelong mortal, implacable enemy. There is no way, short of death, to recover once you have given offense. Against that standard Trump, Bolton and Pompeo are playing with fire. "Just kidding" doesn't cut it.

It may surprise some of you to know that the West was trading with China right through the cold war - in US dollars only. Nixon didn't discover China either. It also may surprise some that China is perfectly capable of making very high quality reasonably priced sophisticated goods, and always has been. The reason that Walmart sells cheap Chinese schlock is because that's what they asked China to supply. As for "stealing intellectual property", don't make me laugh. We all do it and China has plenty of very smart people that create first rate IP of their own.

I make the case that China is a sophisticated and capable economy, with its own amour propre, not some third world hole populated by leaders that can be bought or threatened, and Trump risks forgetting this at our peril.

To this end I note that the trade war is not going to Americas advantage, China has vast holdings of American debt, China buys Iranian oil,  judging by reports of Sochi discussions, Russia AND China are likely to support Iran and both Korea and Taiwan are vulnerable. In my opinion President Trump has a very small window left in which to fire Bolton and perhaps Pompeo and embark on a more conciliatory line, before China becomes an irreversible, implacable enemy.

What says the Committee?

"Bad Blood" - Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup by John Carreyrou - Observations by Walrus.

I wrote in 2010 at SST on the characteristics and dangers associated with  narcissistic leadership. "Bad Blood' by John Carreyrou chronicles the rise and fall of Theranos, a Silicon Valley healthcare startup founded and run by Elizabeth Holmes, a card carrying narcissist if ever I saw one. This book, in my opinion, paints such a detailed and comprehensive picture of the way these creatures operate that I thought it worthwhile to bring it to the attention of SST members who may doubt my warnings of the dangers of allowing such folk near the levers of power in business and, worse, Government. I read this book over two nights and it unfortunately brought back my own experiences of working for a narcissist to the point of causing sleeplessness and indigestion.

Under the direction of the charismatic Holmes, Theranos burned through some $900 million in investors funds before being found out in 2015. Their blood testing business was a sham that endangered patients. The company's key business strengths were the "reality distortion field" Elizabeth Holmes projected over investors and  directors and the twin weapons of secrecy and fear they wielded over their employees.

Disbelievers my argue that start up companies sometimes require desperate measures to stay afloat and that you cannot make an omelette, etc. etc. However the pattern of behavior at Theranos was ingrained and consistent - "an orchestrated litany of lies" as a judge has said in another matter.

If you wish to perhaps be a little forearmed against the day that you perhaps must engage with one of these creatures it would be well to understand the cautionary tale of Theranos.

https://www.amazon.com/Bad-Blood-Secrets-Silicon-Startup/dp/152473165X

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2010/05/walrus-on-narcissistic-leaders-.html

AOC And The Green New Deal - Opinion By Walrus.

Well, what did you expect from a 29 year old freshman politician? A condemnation of Iran, renunciation of climate science and a pledge of allegiance to the fossil fuel lobby? You got exactly what is called in Westminster Parliamentary procedure a "maiden speech" in this case a bill setting out core beliefs and directions that, if she is true to it, she will devote her entire legislative career. Bravo! To her. Where would we be without young, enthusiastic idealists? Ah! You say, but her program is socialism! That never works....because its socialism. The commentariat asks ;"Who is going to pay for everything answer me that?" Then they start on the job loss theme in the energy industry, conveniently forgetting that solar panels don't erect themselves. Personally, I cannot think of any goal in the green new deal that doesn't make common sense, but I stand to be corrected.

I also know that individual elements of the scheme are policy or actuality around the globe, so there is nothing far fetched in human terms in the manifesto. For example, I have 9 kilowatts of solar panels on my roof. It didn't take a jack booted thug to make me put them there either, it was a good business proposition. Same with single payer health, I had an MRI and two cortisone shots under ultrasound for my shoulder  last week - total cost to me on the day - zero. We fund healthcare out of tax revenue and operate a mixed public/private system in Australia.

I guess what has scared the commentariat and probably a good proportion of the electorate, was reading a laundry list of practical ideas that the rest of the world have been engaging with for at least 20 years. To the insular among us the green new deal is disruptive and shocking. To those open to change, the answer is "heck, why not?" Why isn't America the greenest, happiest most beautiful place on the planet? There is plenty of work to be done and challenges to meet, not the least avoiding the dictatorship of the SJW/PC crowd, but to label AOC and her manifesto as crackpot socialism is the height of stupidity. What say you?

The Economic Zoo 2024 By Walrus.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the American Economic Zoo. This season we mark the retirement of our great leader and founder, President Trump whose tariff protection initiatives starting in 2018 made all our new exhibits possible. So let me introduce you to the new examples of Homo Americanus Economicus for your delectation… 

Our first new exhibit is a new species of genus Economicus Bureaucraticus; sub species Sanctionis. We are reliably informed that they now number in the tens of thousands around Washington where they nest in Federal buildings and of course feed off the taxpayer. Once a threatened species due to the depredations of free trade, President Trumps protectionist trade wars have enlarged the swamps they inhabit and naturally they have proliferated very nicely. 

The defining characteristic of the species is an almost superhuman ability to categorize goods and services into the infinite sub categories called for in trade regulations. For example European steel is subject to sanctions, except surgical stainless steel for medical purposes, yet whole groups of Sanctionis, sometimes 200 or more, will spend an entire summer arguing, dancing and fighting among themselves over whether the definition of the word “surgical” includes steel for razor blades and whether “Medical purposes” should includes preoperative shaving of certain parts of the anatomy but not facial hair. Tens of thousands of pages of federal regulations are thus generated which has been a great boon to the paper industry. The effect on the economy has been calming since it now takes an importer over two years to navigate the sanctions and import goods. Watch what happens when I prod one; it immediately starts typing a new regulation. If you really want to see a feeding frenzy, ask them the difference between a metal ‘tube” and an “extrusion”. 

Our next new exhibit, I confess is only a model because we cannot find a specimen. It appears that almost the entire species of Americanus Genius Inventorus has migrated overseas. This species and its symbiotic partner venturus capitalismus seem to find it too hard to breed in America these days. The problems are multifaceted. Members of the species now find migration too difficult if they have funny sounding names and relatives in places like (excuse the profanity) Iran. Then there is the question of intellectual property flows – we let good ideas in, but won’t let them out. Then there are sanctions which restrict who they can sell to, tariff walls and quotas all of which make it just too hard to breed good products and then of course there is the problem posed by our next exhibit Lazy Industrialis.

Lazy Industrialis is a proliferating species, it has overtaken Americanus Industrialis almost everywhere. Its defining behaviour is just to sit in its lair, fat and happy, waiting for prey to walk by. It no longer needs to work or invest to build a better or cheaper product to attract prey because, thanks to President Trumps 25% tariffs, the prey are simply herded into its jaws. It is a lazy beast, rather like a stonefish – butt ugly, a bad employer, a non investor and a lazy manager and is not receptive to the new ideas produced by Inventorus. It just continues to lie in its lair, producing the same old crud from old factories full of old ideas because it can, as long as it is protected by the warm blanket of tariffs. When I prod this species with a stick, it cries to Congress for more industry protection. 

Trumps Trade Wars by Walrus.

President Trump is allegedly going to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum next week. When the European Union questioned his wisdom in doing this, he doubled down by threatening to impose tariffs on European car imports. He is also alleged to have said "trade wars are easy to win". This is madness and ultimately bad for America. The President seems fixated on trade imbalances and sees an easy and wrong solution to the American trade deficit which last year was 566 billion dollars. His take on this is that "its not fair" that America can't export more - the cause of the deficit is those dastardly furriners  are conspiring against American industry. This is childish.

I will not go into detail about specifics of the product mismatches between America and the rest of the world that are part of the export problem, anyone who has ever been to say, London or Amsterdam would know that a Dodge Ram would be entirely out of place. My main observation, based on a lifetime of experience with manufacturers facing international competition, is that tariffs are an addictive drug for lazy and incompetent business management, featherbedding unionists and bad government. All tariffs do is put off the day when the toxic combination of bad management, lack of investment, poor work practices, rotten infrastructure, overpriced energy, excessive regulation and bad government become too much of a cost for the community to bear.

To put that another way, if you are working for a manufacturing company that is internationally competitive and well run, how would you like it if your raw materials, Steel and Aluminum, suddenly became 25% more expensive next week? ...  And all to protect some lazy SOB down the road who hasn't invested in his plant for thirty years? Then there is the question of foreign retaliation.

The correct response to a trade imbalance is to find out why your product isn't selling and fix it. For example American cars are oversized gas guzzlers in the eyes of the rest of the world, that is why they don't sell, but nobody in Detroit seems to want to make what the rest of the world wants, instead they cry to uncle Donald.

Ultimately, Trumpian tariffs will hurt the internationally competitive sectors of American industry while merely postponing the day when the uncompetitive sectors must modernize or go under...and the result is always a net loss of jobs. 

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-trade-deficit-causes-effects-trade-partners-3306276

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-tariffs-eu-cars-import-trade-war-a8238426.html 

"Simian Mutual Hostility" - A Short Note On North Korea By Walrus.

Colonel Lang aptly described the current situation vis a vis the leaders of North Korea and the United States as one of "Simian Mutual Hostility" and offered his opinion that there is little chance of avoiding war.

On 23rd September the U.S. Airforce flew a bomber mission, in international airspace, closer to North Korea than ever before in "the 21st century". North Korea has responded, allegedly calling this event an Act Of War and threatening to shoot down American aircraft, even in international airspace if it happens again.

I am now of the opinion that we are, at best, one miscalculation away from the collapse of the Korean Armistice. 

Our best hope is that President Trump is much better informed on North Korea than anyone thinks and that his jibe at Kim Jong Un, labelling him "Rocket Man", is a carefully calculated master stroke of foreign policy. My own opinion is that it isn't.

Word matter and President Trump is an expert wordsmith. Despite what some people might think, his characterizations like "Lyin' Ted Cruz", "Crooked Hillary", etc. , struck deep into the subconscious of the American public where they sat and festered, likewise his tweets. "Rocket Man" is no idle jibe coming from such and experienced practitioner, what is Trump thinking?

Was the "Rocket Man" reference intended solely for a domestic audience? Hardly. Is it going to change the worlds perception of Kim in ways beneficial to America? I don't think so. It looks to me like a direct challenge, from an older man to a younger, to put up or shut up. It may be that President Trump is counting on this insult plus continued military pressure to trigger a North Korean coup. If not, then the ball is now in North Korea's court. Kim Jong Un has to respond. I do not think we will have long to wait. What say members of SST?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-asserts-its-right-to-shoot-down-us-bombers/2017/09/25/74da66c4-a204-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.6e385755a80b

 

The Great illusion By Walrus

The conclusion of Norman Angells 1909 book "The Great Illusion" was that since Western economies were so intertwined in trade, that war between major western powers was futile, in that the disruption of trade would be so ruinous that war could not lead to sustained economic advantage. Angells conclusion is frequently unfairly misquoted as stating that "war between European powers is impossible" - which World War I emphatically proved was mere wishful thinking. I wonder if the ghost of Angells' acolytes are walking the corridors of Washington at telling President Trump and lawmakers that a confrontation with Russia over Syria is impossible. I disagree with the wormtongues, this could end in general war.

Firstly, the uncritical, willing, acceptance by western governments of the truth of what was obviously a false flag gas attack suggests to me that the Borg is serious this time. Americas allies know it. No equivocation is going to go unpunished. I saw this attitude once before in the lead up to the invasion of Iraq. We knew about two months in advance that the game was afoot, long before President Bush publicly announced his decision to invade. Then  there is President Trumps ominous suggestion that he isn't finished with Syria yet.

I think President Trump is under pressure to "maintain the momentum" for a resolution of the Syrian civil war that he is being told his airstrike last week created. I believe, without evidence, that this will be followed next week by the announcement of "a safe zone" in Idlib province that is going to be guaranteed almost immediately by the presence of a force of coalition troops and accompanied by a "no fly zone". I suspect this has already been decided. Turkey would have to be involved if only from a logistics perspective.

I do not believe Assad or Putin is going to accept what in effect is going to be a permanent partition of Syria. The fallout from such an event would be the weakening of the Syrian Governments ability to resist Israeli incursions along its souther borders as Israel attempts to outflank Hezbollah. From Putins perspective, an R2P based incursion into Syria would scuttle his hopes for a return to a world order based on existing international law. Russia would then have to accept her position as a vassal state - something Putin is not going to agree to, however the grand illusionists believe Putin is just another crummy politician who will back down in the face of a barrage of tomahawks.

The only alternative I can think of is the one Col.. Lang has been pleading for. for weeks - for Russia and Syria to get boots on the ground in Idlib right now and roll the Jihadis up. Next week is going to be too late. The race into Idlib has started. Is there a Russian air mobile brigade available? Whoever is first into Idlib is going to determine the course of history for some time to come. 

Smoke By Walrus

It is a dry autumn here at the farm and the air is full of smoke from controlled burns of the forests around us. From about 1830, Sea captains regularly reported thick smoke as they tried to close the Victorian coast in autumn. The Australian aborigines actively managed their tribal lands with fire – burning off the undergrowth to stimulate spring grasses that attract kangaroos and make it easier to hunt. The whole region was burnt out in a patchwork about every five years. These were “cool bushfires” because the fuel load on the ground was never allowed to accumulate too much. The Aboriginals sometimes even apologized to explorers for the state of the underbrush in unburned country, the way your neighbor today apologises for his unkempt lawn.

However, by the 1960’s we knew better. Green environmental activists backed by their academic supporters declared the Australian forests were “sensitive”, “pristine” "Threatened" and “fragile”. Burning was of course immediately stopped. Four wheel drives and horse touring banned, camping restricted and, cattle grazing of the high plains prohibited. The bush was to be a shrine to nature, ministered to by bushwalker acolytes whose tiny footprints left no marks. The great unwashed, campers, drivers, loggers, etc. were to be kept at a respectful distance.

One Hundred and Seventy Three people died in the bushfires that raged around Melbourne on 7th February 2009 as a direct result of the “no burn” policy of this “pristine” wilderness.. When blame was sheeted home to a lack of regular burning and a new policy announced, the greens announced that they would support it – provided the burning strategy was ‘sensitive” and “nuanced”. I almost threw up when I heard him. One Hundred and Seventy Three lives.

Today I hear about an alleged chemical attack in Syria. More smoke. No doubt President Trump is going to be pressured to apply a sensitive and nuanced no fly zone over Idlib province – for the children of course. The same type of useful idiots who corrupted our forest management policy are at work here – believers in the essential goodness of everyone, the same way they believed that nature is a weak virgin instead of a tough old bitch. They refuse to believe that human beings are not perfectible and that goes double for the jihadi inhabitants of Idlib. How many lives will be lost if the Russians, Syrians and Iranians refuse to accept our benevolent strictures?

Of course I am being charitable when I say “useful idiots”. Having worked in Academia, I know there is no cause that won’t be taken up, no point of view so extreme that an academic or two cannot be found to give it a gloss of scholarly imprimatur if sufficient money is offered. And that goes double again for think tanks. The net result of the last Thirty years of useful idiots work was summarized beautifully when Francis Fukuyama declared “the end of history” after the fall of the soviet union – meaning that market driven liberal democracy was the final highest state of humanity and we had just achieved it.

What has happened since should have had a salutary effect on the useful idiots beliefs; the abject failure of “responsibility to protect” wars, the fallout from globalization in terms of unemployment as evidenced by Brexit and the election of president Trump, the scandals over tax evasion by multinational corporations not to mention the mess that is illegal immigration in Europe and America, should have given the useful idiots pause for thought. Maybe not everyone wants to be an American. Maybe globalization has a downside and maybe, just maybe, humans are not perfectible? I am driven to compare the situation of todays useful idiots with their compatriots in Oxford and Cambridge around 1860. Up to then religious belief was taken as a given. It was an organizing principle behind philosophy economics and public policy. Academia was very happy with this situation. If you wanted to know what you ought to do, look no further than the bible for principles. Then Darwin published “On The Origin Of Species” and what followed was the removal of religion as an organizing principle and total collapse of established philosophical positions, culminating in the great war.

So where does that leave us today? The globalists / R2Pers are in disbelief at the election of President Trump, Brexit and perhaps the election in France of Marine le Pen. They are pushing back, generating lots of smoke, but will fail. It has become obvious that globalization has losers as well as winners and the losers can still perhaps vote against their destruction. The philosophical basis of globalization does not sufficiently allow for rampant corporate tax evasion nor the destabilizing effects it has had on national sovereignty to the point where the Westphalian principles are under attack. So much for “progress”.

Then of course there are the upcoming shocks to ordinary workers of Artificial Intelligence, robotics and other new technologies. I have just witnessed some of this first hand, the poor bastards who came to install my satellite internet service had to document and photograph every step of the process on their iPad – leading of course to a set of performance metrics. The latest from Sweden of all places is the injection of employees with RFID chips. Given the greed and short term focus of Wall Street and the aforesaid developing tools for micromanagement of staff, it is not too hard to speculate what life as an employee of a corporation is going to be like in say Five years time. We simply do not have the philosophical tools to construct a rational and humane set of philosophies and policies to manage this. The doctrine of “progress” has failed us. Clearly, at least to me, a major philosophical rethink of our existence is required. Even Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan has recently said “something is wrong”. To be clear, if there is not a rethink of the directions we are heading then Orwells prediction - a boot grinding the face of humanity, forever, will come true.

The doctrine of progress – the history of humanity as a journey to liberal democracy, as espoused by Fukuyama and even Hillary Clinton, is fatally flawed. The old world is dead, the new one is powerless to be born. We need a new debate over philosophical directions. Religion has failed us. The doctrine of “progress” leads to a dead end. Nationalism is a dangerous concept. We need to rethink ourselves before we are overtaken by events. I await the first academics and university to realise what has happened and start reappraising the situation, I think they will be richly rewarded 

Dangerous Memes By Walrus.

The "Birther" meme attached to President Obama was a cleverly crafted and slimy attempt to derail his Presidential campaign. While it developed a life of its own after his inauguration it never was going to be a call to action by patriots. The Trump - Russia meme in my opinion is a much more serious information operation because it is designed to question the legitimacy of a President Trump defence and foreign policy actions.

To put that another way, this IO is not political point scoring, its attempting to influence U.S. foreign and defence policy in a very direct way - precluding a whole raft of policy options related to normalizing relations with Russia, winding back NATO expansion and other areas that I don't even know about. I don't know if this is against the law or not.

CNN  has just led with a story that the intelligence community presented Trump with a dossier alleging five years work by the Russian Government to both compromise Trump and promote his presidential prospects and allege collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian Government. 

"....(CNN)Classified documents presented last week to President Obama and President-elect Trump included allegations that Russian operatives claim to have compromising personal and financial information about Mr. Trump, multiple US officials with direct knowledge of the briefings tell CNN.

The allegations were presented in a two-page synopsis that was appended to a report on Russian interference in the 2016 election. The allegations came, in part, from memos compiled by a former British intelligence operative, whose past work US intelligence officials consider credible. The FBI is investigating the credibility and accuracy of these allegations, which are based primarily on information from Russian sources, but has not confirmed many essential details in the memos about Mr. Trump...."

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/10/politics/donald-trump-intelligence-report-russia/index.html

 

Buzzfeed obligingly then leaks all 35 pages of the alleged "Memos" on which the summary is allegedly based, that go into scatalogical detail about Trump in Russia.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/kenbensinger/these-reports-allege-trump-has-deep-ties-to-russia?utm_term=.pkOOrazq7#.oc4JGA7v2

 

Folks, to me, it doesn't seem to me that American politics can get more surreal. I don't think I've seen more flaky conglomerations passing as intelligence summaries, ever..... and CNN apparently bought it,..... and the liberal media follow suit. Trump wanted to defile the bed that President Obama slept in at a hotel in Moscow, so he arranged a sex party???

The Alt right are now digging and it seems that at least the plot for that particular memo ( the sex party one) was fed by a prankster to one DNC operative Wilson, who appears to have run with it. CNN,  Fake News all of the time. 

I'm half a world away in opposite time zones, please tell us what your morning brings... It seems to me that a "Trump the Traitor" meme is a very dangerous creation.

A Christmas Carol? By Walrus.

I dreamt last night a wonderful dream. I was watching television and Hilary Clinton appeared and announced that she would not accept the office of President should , in her words, “the Electoral College be so misguided as to depart from settled precedent” and not elect Donald Trump. She then broke down in tears and apologized to the American people for the damage her campaign had caused to so many people and promised to devote the rest of her life to reforming the Democratic Party and the Clinton Foundation.

I was then transported to the Whitehouse where a jubilant President Trump, with the beaming leaders of both houses of Congress looking on, signed a campaign finance reform bill into law overturning the Citizens United decision and banning corporations from contributing to any political contest without the permission of the simple majority of their shareholders.

I then found myself in an elementary school listening to a English lesson, the teachers were teaching the children by rote learning I was transported to a high school examination hall and read a science paper, there were no multiple choice questions. I saw the teachers car park, it was full of new luxury cars – rewards for the teachers whose students scored the highest in simple written tests of basic English and mathematical literacy.

I went into a bar and the TV was showing “Cops” but the subjects of the police attention weren’t the usual black and white trailer trash, caught with a few drugs, laid out in their misery for our scorn, no, the subjects were white collar criminals, bankers, lawyers, Judges and similar officials – caught red handed taking bribes.

I rode on a new maglev train to a shopping mall. I looked for Christmas presents. There was no Chinese schlock for sale, the shelves were full of quality American made toys. The car park was full of American cars and someone told met hat they were now the most fuel efficient in the world and that export markets couldn’t get enough of them. I drove past a refinery. Over the gate was a slogan “Pollution is waste! It eats profits!” I noticed a warehouse and houses – their roofs covered in solar panels. I passed another factory, outside was a sign; workers wanted! Come on in!

I found myself at the Boeing plant at Everett where I hadn’t been for Thirty years. I watched a team fitting an engine to a B787; “most of us were academics” one told me ; “I was a social studies Professor, but this work pays better and is more satisfying than listening to whiners all day”.

I saw myself in Washington watching a beaming President Trump welcoming Vladimir Putin to the Whitehouse

Then I woke up.

The Counterattack Against President - Elect Trump By Walrus.

At least as I was taught and trained, it is standard military practice, on taking an enemy position, to immediately begin defensive preparations to receive an almost inevitable counterattack. I hope for the sake of America, that President - Elect Trump and his team have made the adequate preparations for the counterattack because in my opinion the Hilary backers are now upon them.

I refer to Four events; Two are courtesy of the Washington Post and obviously made with the approval of its owner.

The first was the denigration by the Washington Post of websites not sympathetic enough to the Clinton candidacy as "Fake News" - deliberate Russian propaganda in favour of Trump. The article was written around the construct of a list of 200 websites that are labelled as either Russian propaganda outlets or Lenins "useful Idiots" who repeat propaganda without checking. In support of this attack were some media moguls who joined in. This suggests to me that the "cure" for "fake news" under a Clinton regime might be an attack on free speech. There are numerous articles on the web dissecting this story.

Then we have Jill Steins petition for a Wisconsin recount - apparently funded very adequately by public subscription to the tune of several million dollars.

Then we have a statement by Hilarys lawyer that the Clinton DNC team will participate in the recount although according to the spokesman the decision was made in sorrow rather than anger as not much is expected to change. 

Then today we have a Washington Post op-ed by Lawrence Lessig calling for the Electoral College not to elect Trump:

"Conventional wisdom tells us that the electoral college requires that the person who lost the popular vote this year must nonetheless become our president. That view is an insult to our framers. It is compelled by nothing in our Constitution. It should be rejected by anyone with any understanding of our democratic traditions  — most important, the electors themselves.......

.......if the electoral college is to control who becomes our president, we should take it seriously by understanding its purpose precisely. It is not meant to deny a reasonable judgment by the people. It is meant to be a circuit breaker — just in case the people go crazy."

The obvious implication is that crazy people voted for Trump and sane people voted for Clinton.

In my opinion, it may be possible to dismiss these events as just a little rabble rousing to improve newspaper circulation prior to the inauguration (will Trump get elected???) - at which point the media focus again changes (now what will President Trump do????). Conversely, this may be a structured attempt to put Clinton on the throne, in which case all hell breaks loose.

I also note that in the UK. Tony Blair has lifted the lid of his casket and again stalks the streets of London aiming to reverse Brexit. Do we see a pattern here? International elites none too happy with revolting peasants on both sides of the Atlantic?

I leave it to the committee to discuss what we are seeing here. I guess it stands to reason that if Trump really plans to "drain the swamp" there are going to be a lot of alligators after him. What comes next I know not. 

The Race That Stops A Nation By Walrus.

"The Race That Stops A Nation" isn't describing the Presidential race, its the Moniker of The Melbourne Cup, a horse race first held in 1861 on the first Tuesday in November. Cup Day is a state holiday and most people try and make it into a long weekend as the seemingly endless stream of SUVs towing boats and camper trailers past our front gate on Friday afternoon attested. Cup day is a day when non gamblers have a bet on the horses and non drinkers can be seen with a glass of champagne. Right across Victoria people hold parties and dress up in their Sunday best, praying that our spring weather won't collapse back into winter. Most of the rest of the country will stop to listen to the race, such is the interest, my father told me ,that during WWII Australian Army signals nets in the Pacific overloaded on race day and urgent operational traffic couldn't get through. 

This year we enjoyed ourselves in a week long series of parties and revels that concluded yesterday which I think we thoroughly deserved after a winter of chemotherapy, mastectomy, radiotherapy and the wettest winter since 1905. We are now forswearing alcohol for a month and preparing for what lies ahead. For my partner it is a breast reconstruction now that her cancer appears to be in remittance. For me, it is farm work to make up for the time lost in endless hospital waiting rooms and doctors offices. It is not all bleak. I am now a grandfather to a baby girl who is cute as a button and I await the future with hope rather than sinful despair.

Part of that hope is the possibility that an end may be in sight for Americas self inflicted woes, but we shall see on Tuesday. I attach a link to John Michael Greers summary of the situation - that Trump at least offers hope of principled change for the better while Clinton does not seem to offer anything new. 

"..Donald Trump, by contrast, has been arguing against several core elements of that consensus since the beginning of his run for office. Specifically, he’s calling for a reversal of federal policies that support offshoring of jobs, the enforcement of US immigration law, and a less rigidly confrontational stance toward Russia over the war in Syria. It’s been popular all through the current campaign for Clinton’s supporters to insist that nobody actually cares about these issues, and that Trump’s supporters must by definition be motivated by hateful values instead, but that rhetorical gimmick has been a standard thoughstopper on the left for many years now, and it simply won’t wash. The reason why Trump was able to sweep aside the other GOP candidates, and has a shot at winning next week’s election despite the unanimous opposition of this nation’s political class, is that he’s the first presidential candidate in a generation to admit that the issues just mentioned actually matter. "

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=27481991&postID=7523666433928129090

Soros Leaks - Intelligence In Action - By Walrus.

Looking through a few documents allegedly from the Soros Open Society Initiative leaked by website Dcleaks, I noticed what I think is a pretty good illustration of an intelligence/PR appreciation, or analysis of the German news media and the German publics attitude to the Ukranian situation, at least as portrayed by the author.

I was intrigued enough to post the link in the hope that SST readers might like to comment both on its contents and crafting. The only conclusion I can draw from its content is that the intentions of OSI towards Russia are not benign.

 

http://soros.dcleaks.com/download/?f=/Ukraine%20and%20Europe/germany/osf%20draft.rtf&t=europe

Madeleine Albright Unhinged Nutcase? By Walrus.

Madeleine Albright is alleged to have said on Friday on CNN of Hilary Clintons alleged use of an unsecured private server for her official email that:

"She has said she made a mistake, and nobody is going to die as a result of anything that happened on emails."

I personally find this to be the most breathtaking stupidity and I would hope it is the result of old age or dementia rather than the considered opinion of a former Secretary Of State. Mrs. Albright is in no position to know if "nobody is going to die" from accidental disclosure of confidential information and it remains a very real possibility that sources have been compromised with potentially fatal results. What sources we do have in foreign governments must be terrified that an inadvertent slip by Hilary in a published email will reveal them.

You can bet that every intelligence service in the world, including friends and allies of the United States, are analysing every Clinton official email they can get their hands on, looking for a potential leak in their own security…..and they will be looking backwards a very long time. I do not think I even need to provide examples, but Venona, Krivitsky, Petrov and God knows who else set trains of investigation in motion over decades.

 http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/madeleine-albright-clinton-email-223861

As for Albrights comments on "Russian aggression" my response is unprintable. Perhaps the most likeable comment I have seen is "How dare Russia move her country so close to our NATO bases!".

The View From The Farm By Walrus.

On February 15 2015 I posted “a View From The Farm” on SST explaining that I had just moved to the country from the city and opining about what I saw happening to American foreign policy at the time. This is an update, I would have posted more earlier except for one reason I will explain later.

But first, the farm. Since this is the Third country place I’ve owned and I’m getting older; I subscribe to the dictum “”If there is a power tool for the job, then buy one”. First purchase was a little Kubota diesel tractor with digger and loader attachments. This is a perfect choice for me, everything is balanced and works nicely. I then found out why – it’s optimized for cemetery work – digging and filling graves. That was followed by ride on mower, a new chainsaw and unpacking all my tools, my friends, that had remained in storage for about Ten years..

So armed, I commenced the task of, as I thought. “tidying a few things up”. This has, naturally, involved considerable expense. In order to keep my partner happy and productive, this has so far included: replacing the less than tasteful blue vinyl kitchen benchtops with solid timber along with the stove, sink, dishwasher, wood heater and hot water system. After that I’ve added solar hot water and a nine kilowatt solar electricity system.

In the garden. I removed Nine Cyprus pines that in my opinion had been strategically placed to incinerate the house in the event of a bushfire. We then started on cleaning up the pool and tennis court and began to construct a vegetable garden, about the same size as the tennis court, with raised beds and suitable fencing to keep out the kangaroos and wombats. We have some help in all of this from the Three sons and daughters in law we have between us and we have Four spare bedrooms just in case.

Ah yes! The wild life. We decided not to buy cattle last Spring as they were expensive and we had a very dry season with not much feed. However we are home to a permanent group of about Twenty Eastern Gray Kangaroos on our place although numbers fluctuate. I can see them grazing as I write this. Then there are the wombats who are inoffensive – provided they don’t decide to dig under your house. They are stubborn animals. Then there are Red, Fallow and Sambur deer who visit us in groups of around Five to Ten most mornings. As for the birds that visit our bird table; Cockatoos, Magpies, Rosellas and my especial favorite the King Parrots some of which I can feed by hand.

All in all a desirable location and retreat. We have a snow fed river on our boundary, so we have pumping rights for our gardens. That has proved vital because we had a very dry spring and all our new garden plantings were at risk. We have great neighbors. We help each other and enjoy their company, well almost all of them. We have one “miss crabby face” schoolteacher near us who complains to the council about all of us at the slightest opportunity, my turn came one Saturday when I was zeroing the .308 and the .223 and she called the police telling them I was massacring wombats!

However so much for domestic bliss.

Then on 24^th February 2016 my partner was diagnosed with breast cancer. Quite advanced,   but hopefully successfully treatable. Some SST members may remember my late partner died of cancer so I have some skills, I hope, in supporting her through the treatment and surgery that lies ahead of us. One comfort is that the pair of us are covered by platinum level medical insurance for the princely sum of about Six thousand dollars a year, and my partner and I are both satisfied that she is getting the best care from a top flight team of surgeons and oncologists in a perfect setting. Our friends and neighbors are supportive.

. “If you want God to laugh, tell him your plans” is the Jewish saying. so now everything is on hold and we live one day at a time. This years trip to Europe, already booked, is cancelled. I guess it just goes to show that at our age we need to be conscious that one day all this merriment is going to end. Hopefully for SST members and our leader Col. Lang, not before we see some resolution to the mess that is American middle east policy. My personal hope is that Donald Trump becomes President and uses his undoubted business skills to clean out the Washington stables.  I guess to make a positive observation, things are so bad in foreign and domestic policy these days that there are many and obvious areas for improvement in the economy and society generally if only the legions of politically correct commissars can be ejected from their cosy positions.

ISIS Recruiting Operations In Indonesia By Walrus.

The Australian ABC has allegedly obtained video (link below) of an ISIS recruiter; cleric Syamsudin Uba, peddling his wares at a mosque in Jakarta, Indonesia, to what is believed to be potential ISIS recruits:

"They declare that territory as Islamic State where God's law is upheld fully and where there isn't any intimidation from foreign countries……….

…….And based on their sacrifice of their blood and wealth they declare an Islamic State…...

…...Even though the infidels wouldn't acknowledge it (an Islamic state), even though the United Nations wouldn't acknowledge it……..

…………………….Muslims don't need that, Muslims only want the blessing from God, in a state where the laws of God are implemented fully. Even when the infidels don't like it……………..

……...When you get there soon, God willing, you won't have to pay rent, you don't have electricity and water bills," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-22/islamic-state-supporters-run-recruitment-drive-at-jakarta-mosque/7188058

 

++++++++

 

Comment: Indonesia is the most populous (about 200 milllion) Muslim state in the world. Its stated national philosophy is "pankasila"the five principles:

Belief in the one and only God .
Just and civilised humanity. 
The unity of Indonesia. 
Democracy guided by the inner wisdom in the unanimity arising out of deliberations amongst representatives. 
Social justice for all of the people of Indonesia.

As a general rule Indonesia is a pretty, relaxed, place.  There are important nationalist considerations, but there is no direct linkage between Islam and a national agenda. The "one God" principle requires that Christians, Muslims and Jews, Animists, etc. co - exist. As you can  no doubt imagine Saudi Wahabists have been trying to gain a larger foothold in the country for at least Thirty years via the usual route of charities and schools. I am not privy to the counter efforts made by the West, if any.

Indonesia controls the Straits of Malacca as well as the deep water channels between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea so its radicalisation, let alone possible tolerance of ISIS operations) would not be just a regional nightmare.

One hopes that the Indonesian Government, perhaps assisted by its many Western friends, pushes back against Wahabist ideology wherever it is found and ensures that ISIS does not get a hold in the region

As for potential Indonesian recruits to ISIS, I guess the best message we could send is some graphics of what is in store for them at the hands of the R+6. 

US demands Russia stop bombing Syria's opposition. By Walrus.

"US Secretary of State John Kerry has demanded Russia stop bombing the Syrian opposition, implicitly blaming Moscow for the collapse in peace talks……………..

………….Mr Kerry also said that both parties to the conflict — the rebels and the regime and its allies — must allow access to besieged areas for humanitarian aid.

Nearly 40,000 Syrian civilians have fled the latest regime offensive backed by Russian air strikes near Aleppo, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The exodus began on Monday after government forces began an operation that has severed the main rebel supply route into the city and broke an opposition siege on two regime-held towns………….." 

Erdogan is also quoted in the article:

Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said the peace talks in Geneva were "pointless" while Russia and the Assad regime continued attacks in the country.

"Russia continues to kill people in Syria. Could there be such a peace gathering? Could there be such peace talks?" Mr Erdogan said in a speech in Peru, in comments published on the presidency website…………...

……..In an environment where children are still being killed, such attempts do not have any function apart from making things easier for the tyrant," he said……."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/us-demands-russia-stop-syria-bombing-after-talks-suspended/7142104

 

+++++++++

 

It appears to me that Kerry and Erdogan now realise that the latest Syrian offensive signals the beginning of the end for their fictional moderate, democratic rebels who are not really jihadists, just misunderstood. 

The Peace talks? They remind me of Napoleon III trying to "negotiate" with Moltke and Bismarck after the French were defeated at Sedan. What cards do the rebels have to play - "The gratitude of the Syrian people?".

What Kerry and Erdogan are now probably doing is contemplating  what  a reunified, jihadist free, Syria is going to look like along with a resurgent, sorry, I mean "emboldened", Russia, Hezbollah and Iran. My opinion is that they are going to remake the Middle East to the detriment of Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The question then becomes whether Turkey and the U.S. are going to permit that. There are suggestions on another thread that Turkey may try to take military action in Syria under the "responsibility to protect" mantra. I do not see that as a winning military strategy unless the U.S. and NATO can be prevailed upon to support such a venture. Are we stupid enough to do that? 

The Petreaus Case….And Clinton? By Walrus

The Washington Post has just published an article about the conduct of the Petraeus Case - and how a plea deal was reached, for better or worse. I wonder if it gives us any insights as to how Clinton will be treated?

The last paragraphs:

"Holder, who was planning to leave office and didn’t want to leave the case for the next attorney general, approved the settlement. Holder declined to comment. But he offered this explanation for his decision at a media event last year when asked if there was a double standard that allowed Petraeus to plead to a misdemeanor when his department had zealously pursued others for similar alleged crimes.

“There were factors that made the resolution of the case appropriate,” he said. “There were some unique things that existed in that case that would have made the prosecution at the felony level and a conviction at the felony level very, very, very problematic.”  Walrus

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-david-petraeus-avoided-felony-charges-and-possible-prison-time/2016/01/25/d77628dc-bfab-11e5-83d4-42e3bceea902_story.html

Syria After The Destruction of ISIS - By Walrus

While the usual disclaimers apply including the fact that I am no military or political expert, I wonder if it would be useful for SST members to consider what a Syria reborn after the demise of ISIS might decide to become? I also wonder what the Geopolitical fallout of victory over ISIS might be?

Taking the Geopolitical issue first, I am  assuming that the successful Russian intervention destroys Washingtons "Monopolar worldview"  as it should if we are to avoid nuclear war and that the rebuilding of Syria occurs in an environment of intense competition for influence among "Great Powers (™)" Europe, America, China and Russia.

The latter Two have the front running.  The R2P people in D.C. are completely discredited because they not only instigated the war but prolonged it. I fail to see therefore , absent a Pauline conversion, how  they can claim any role in Syrian reconstruction. To put that another way, I don't see an American reincarnation of Noel Annan dragging a Conrad Adenauer out of the rubble and promoting him as "their man". Europe? Well they have simple done Washingtons bidding.

Russia in my opinion, stands to gain most - a warm water naval base, perhaps an air base - vengeance for President Obamas "Regional Power" slur. Then of course there are the weapons sales. China? Well there is a lot of spare capacity in the Chinese economy at the moment that might usefully be used for the reconstruction of Syrian infrastructure. The Kurds? More winners.

Who are the losers? Turkey for One, at least under an  Erdogan Government. Then there are the Gulf states and the KSA who may wind up facing a united and battle hardened Shia crescent. Israel? Fast footwork may prevent any fall out. They have not (yet) tried to annex the Golan or attack into Lebanon although that might have been the intent had the Assad regime looked like losing.

As for Syria and the Syrian people themselves? I think we may have actually done some nation building here thereby proving the Walrus law - governments achieve the reverse of their stated objectives. My thinking is that winning a war like this is a transformational event for Syrian society. Notwithstanding the realities of Arab behaviour catalogued by Col. Lang, I think the shared experience of this war has the potential to bind Syrians in a national sense - perhaps giving some emotional realities to Sykes - Picot - not just lines on a map anymore, especially if Assad can be magnanimous in victory.

I will cease bloviating and ask you what you think the future might hold for Syria.

A Setup With American Help? By Walrus.

There are reports this morning that the Russians believe that the shooting down of their fighter aircraft by the Turkish Airforce was an ambush carried out with American complicity. At least one American Airforce commentator, on Fox News no less, agrees with them. My personal opinion is that we have not heard the last of this and if President Obama sanctioned such an  operation then the consequences for America are dire.

I am  not a military pilot but I know enough that air to air interceptions and shoot downs do not "just happen" considerable planning of fuel and ordnance loads are required. The Turkish aircraft were apparently "loitering with intent", the jihadists on the ground may also have been warned and President Putin believes the flight details for the intended Russian strike were leaked  or "shared" by America to Turkey from the deconfliction centre.

Putins comment:

"We told our US partners in advance where, when at what altitudes our pilots were going to operate. The US-led coalition, which includes Turkey, was aware of the time and place where our planes would operate. And this is exactly where and when we were attacked. Why did we share this information with the Americans? Either they don't control their allies, or they just pass this information left and right without realizing what the consequences of such actions might be. We will have to have a serious talk with our US partners."

 Russian allegations are covered by Zerohedge at the link below:

Russian Allegations.

The "Gaffe" by a former U.S. Airforce General on Fox News, agreeing with the Russians is here:

Pre Planned Attack. 

Obamas initial reaction to the shooting down is chilling:

"Hours after the Turkish shootdown of a Russian warplane along the Syria-Turkey border, U.S. President Barack Obama and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on the need to de-escalate tensions and prevent further incidents.

The White House, in a statement late Tuesday, said the two leaders conferred by phone and voiced their commitment to developing a transitional political process for peace in Syria and international support for defeating Islamic State extremists. The statement also reiterated U.S. support for Turkey's right to defend its airspace.

Earlier Tuesday, Obama, speaking in Washington, cited the downing of the Russian plane as evidence of an "ongoing problem" with Russia's military operations in Syria."

Folks in my opinion, this is Obamas "what could he possibly have been thinking?" moment.

Then there is the surfacing issue that the mainstream media is trying to avoid. The complicity of the U.S. and Turkey conniving to try to ensure that ISIS remains in being at least until the Assad regime is destroyed. In Turkey and Israels (and hence Americas) case, so that they can pick over the bones of Syria at their leisure. Then of course there is the Erdogan fils profitable oil trade with ISIS which is directly under threat from Russian air attacks.

My concern now is that Two narcissists, Presidents Obama and Erdogan, are going to drag us into WWIII.

Walrus