Sic Semper Tyrannis

The New Drone Wars - TTG

Back in early 1981, I did a few “odd jobs” between graduating from the Infantry Officer Advanced Course and starting the SF Officers Course. One of these jobs was as an ARTEP evaluator for a mech infantry company on Fort Benning. While I had plenty of book learning about tank-mech infantry teams, I was much more comfortable following a dismounted night attack through a cold January swamp. There was no Moon and a stiff, steady breeze so I felt we were making a stealthy approach. Although the attack was well executed, I learned something disconcerting during the after action review. Our night approach through the swamp was monitored by a high flying AC-130 gunship from 1st SOW. The gunship caught the heat signature of each approaching soldier as they silently slid through that moonless swamp. The lesson I took was that the idea of remaining undetected in uninhabited forests and mountains was a myth. Combine that with the Fort Benning aphorism, “If you can be seen, you can be killed” and I quickly became enamored with the concept of urban guerrilla warfare once I reached 10th Group. We would survive behind the Iron Curtain only by hiding among those we were to liberate from oppression.

So what does this stroll down memory lane have to do with the new drone wars? A lot, actually. It’s the same principle. Armies can be seen and killed from above by a wide range of drones in 2020 just as we could be seen and killed by the AC-130 back in 1980. The difference lies in the proliferation of these drones and the fact that they are less expensive than manned aircraft. They also don’t expose pilots or operators to death or capture. 

First there were our Predators and Reapers hunting down jihadis and the occasional wedding party. We have well over 500 of these heavy drones. We have even more smaller drones down to man packed, hand launched tactical varieties. But we are not alone anymore. China is producing them like gangbusters. Turkey has emerged as a major leader in the development and employment of drones. One of these, the Bayratkar T2B, has had success in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan. Erdogan has also deployed the T2B against the PKK within Turkey and northern Iraq. 

The T2B is a medium altitude tactical drone. It has a range of more than 150 km and can fly at a maximum altitude of 22,500 feet. It has a maximum speed of 120 knots, a cruise speed of 70 knots and endurance of more than 24 hours. The T2B is powered with a 100 horsepower Rotax civil engine, an engine common to ultralight and homebuilt aircraft. The unit cost of the aircraft itself is less than 100 thousand dollars. Its electro-optical reconnaissance, surveillance and targeting system is now produced by Aselan in Turkey at a cost of 400 thousand dollars per unit. Although it does use GPS, it is not satellite controlled. Ground stations control the T2B by line-of-sight radio signal. The munitions, also produced in Turkey by Roketsan, are laser-guided, precision, long range and light weight. They include thermobaric and tandem warheads effective against reactive armor. Overall, the T2B is an impressive piece of kit. 

As I mentioned, the PKK were the first to feel the wrath of the T2B. Those fighters hiding in the hills and mountains of eastern Turkey and northern Iraq have been getting clobbered since the droness were employed against them. I’m sure they learned the same lesson I learned forty years ago in that Fort Benning swamp. The difference is that my lesson was academic, the PKK’s lesson was catastrophically lethal. Erdogan also used the T2B and other drones against the YPG/SDF over the last few years.

The first time the T2B gained notoriety in the West was when they were used as part of Turkey’s Spring 2020 counterattack against the very successful R+5 Idlib Dawn offensive. A large number of T2Bs, along with a smaller number of the larger, satellite-controlled Anka medium drones were deployed from 1 to 5 March. At a loss of six drones, Turkey claimed it destroyed over a hundred SAA armored vehicles, dozens of artillery systems and hundreds of SAA troops. Take that claim with a grain of salt, but Russia and the SAA agreed to a ceasefire immediately after that.

Turkish drones also played a significant role, along with the imported Syrian jihadis, in stopping Haftar’s LNA from taking Tripoli in early 2020. Until that time Haftar was using Chinese made Wing Loong drones to great effect. The GNA compensated for the shorter range of the newly arrived T2Bs by establishing radio relay sites to extend their operational range. The T2Bs used a Turkish EW suite to jam the Russian made Pantsir-1 units and took them out systematically. They then played havoc among Haftar's forces deployed in the flatness of northern Libya. Haftar and the Wagner Group were forced to withdraw from the outskirts of Tripoli.

The newest deployment of the T2B is in the current Armenian-Azerbijani war. The Azeri and Armenian forces are generally similar in equipment, manpower and training. However, the Azeri’s employment of R2B drones has been devastating to the Armenian armor and artillery in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azeris are advancing with the help of those R2B drones. There is a constant stream of drone kill porn on the internet. This time it is Armenian targets being snuffed rather than footage of Predators snuffing jihadis.

The proliferation of attack drones, especially Turkish drones, is changing ground warfare. In Syria, Russia rushed additional air defense capabilities to SAA front line units to blunt the threat of Turkish drones. Movement, dispersion and concealment methods required modification. A hull down position for an AFV is nothing to a drone. After the March 2020 drone attacks in Idlib, the Russians sent wreckage of those Turkish drones back to Moscow to develop an effective countermeasure. They have now rushed the KRET Krasukha electronic jamming system to their base in Armenia where the system reportedly caused nine drones to loose connection with their control stations and crash. The Krashukha also blocks GPS signals to prevent drones from automatically returning to base. The T2B doesn’t appear to have that feature, but many drones do. In my opinion, this is the most promising countermeasure to the widespread use of drones. The Russian military, due to their massive investment in radio-electronic combat (REC) is in the best position to pursue this countermeasure. We could someday soon see serious deployment of REC at the company and battalion level. Sure we can change our TTPs (tactics, techniques and procedures) to reduce our vulnerabilities to the threat of constant areal surveillance and attack, but that would be debilitating to normal operations. We best get to stepping in developing and widely deploying an effective EW capability. China is right up there with Turkey and the US in the development of drone warfare.

TTG     

https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/turkey-second-drone-age/

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/turkeys-drone-war-syria-red-team-view

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/5/28/largest-drone-war-in-the-world-how-airpower-saved-tripoli

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiSTvlBYx14 (fresh drone porn)

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/russia-knocking-turkish-drones-from-armenian-skies/

The labyrinth known as Libya - TTG

When we last visited Libya, we saw the demise of Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi at the hands of various Libyan rebel forces. Those videos are now tagged with a graphic content warning on YouTube. His gruesome death with a knife up his arse, a bullet in his head and his carcass on display in a Misrata grocer’s freezer should have been a warning of what was to come. Even Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, on the day of his capture issued a strong warning to his captors about Libya’s new radical leaders and the risk of internal divisions. Of course he was only talking about particular Islamist leaders among the rebels. Even he didn’t foresee the danger of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).  Those jihadists had their moment, but neither of the current warring factions in Libya have any use for them. At least there’s that.

Ah yes. How could I forget Benghazi. We all remember the killing of Ambassador Stevens in Benghazi on 11 September 2012 and the ensuing four years of Congressional investigations. But that’s another story.  

Some time after the killing of Ambassador Stevens, the USG started developing plans to begin rebuilding a new Libyan Army starting in 2015. It definitely would have been a much tougher mission than rebuilding the Lebanese Army in 1983. It would have taken an entire SF Group and various supporting elements fully deployed for several years. Given our existing deployments at the time, I doubt this mission ever got past the initial planning stage… if that far. If we were at all serious about this endeavor, we should have started planning before the first American bomb fell on Qadaffi’s forces.

 

Incident at Muhambal - TTG

An expression of jihadi displeasure with Erdogan

BEIRUT, LEBANON (3:00 P.M.) – A Turkish military convoy that was traveling through the Idlib countryside on Wednesday was reportedly ambushed by unknown assailants, Muraselon news reported, citing opposition media. The Muraselon report said the Turkish Army convoy was traveling through the town of Mahambal when they were ambushed by the unknown assailants.

“According to information monitored by Muraselon, a Turkish Army convoy was subjected to a number of explosive devices during a crossing along the Latakia-Aleppo road (M-4), which is under the control of the militants; this led to the loss of a number of Turkish forces,” Muraselon said.

The report said clashes broke out shortly after the attack, later resulting in the Turkish Army cordoning off the area. Some opposition activists have accused the jihadists of the Hurras Al-Deen Group, but they have denied any role in the ambush.  (Al Masdar News)

————

’Tis a puzzlement. Will the Turkish Army continue their shoulder to shoulder support of their jihadi brothers when the SAA and Russian Aerospace Forces inevitably start clearing the M4 or will the Turks abandon the jihadis to their fate? 

Erdogan appeared to be content with the latest plan to cede the control of the M4 highway, Jisr al Shighour and Arihah to Damascus. The jihadis were not content with any of this. They stopped the joint Turkish-Russian patrols of the M4 and bulldozed a section of the highway in a fit of displeasure.

These actions and this incident at Muhambal shows that some jihadis are not pleased with Erdogan’s level of enthusiasm for their cause. And they are showing their displeasure at his lack of enthusiasm. It will be truly interesting to see how this aspect develops when the next phase of Operation Idlib Dawn kicks off.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-military-convoy-ambushed-in-idlib-countryside-report/

"we will be violent to the kuffar. Like in Syria.” Tayyip Erdogan

"Contemporary Turkish Calls for Jihad

On October 25, 2019, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the Friday prayers at the Great Çamlıca Mosque in Istanbul.

He was accompanied by Istanbul’s governor Ali Yerlikaya, mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s chief of police Mustafa Çalışkan and the head of the Istanbul branch of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Bayram Şenocak. After the prayers, the hafiz of the mosque recited the Koranic Verse Al-Fath, which means “victory, triumph, conquest”.

Then, Erdogan took the microphone and recited a part of the verse first in Arabic and then in Turkish.

He told the crowd:
Our God commands us to be violent towards the kuffar (infidels). Who are we? The ummah [nation] of Mohammed. So [God] also commands us to be merciful to each other. So we will be merciful to each other. And  

Erdogan then referred to another Koranic verse, As-Saff-13, in Arabic:

Inshallah, God has promised us in Syria: ‘Nasrun minallahi ve fethun karib ve beşşiril mu’minin.’ [‘Victory from Allah and an imminent conquest; and give good tidings to the believers’]. We see it is happening right now. With the permission of Allah, we will see it even more… I will meet some presidents of foreign countries [Russian and Iranian] at the Dolmabahce Palace today. I ask for your permission now to go there.”

The congregants then cheered Erdogan on, shouting “Allahu Akbar” (Allah is great). "  Yaakov Apelbaum

-------------------

This is from Yaakov Apelbaum's article on the Ottoman Declaration of a Jihad in 1914.  As I have repeatedly reminded the pilgrim horde, the Ottoman sultan was also caliph and commander of the Sunni 'umma (Islamic community).  The fatwa declaring jihad was intended to cause rebellions among the Muslim subject population of the British and French empires.  This was only moderately effective.

It is nevertheless instructive to have the words of Sultan Tayyip the Great's sentiments toward the kuffar.    The kuffar are we, his NATO allies.  pl

https://apelbaum.wordpress.com/2019/12/31/turkeys-1914-jihad-against-the-armenians-greeks-jews-and-albanians/

HTS has killed the "cease fire."

"Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has officially rejected the recent Russian-Turkish agreement on Greater Idlib, vowing to keep on fighting.
In an official statement, the terrorist group claimed that the agreement would allow the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces to resume military operation in the region. The group also noted that most of the agreement’s terms are “not implementable.”
“This agreement is tinged with ambiguity and loose, floating phrases that allow the Russian occupier to use it for aggression again, and there are also terms that cannot be implemented at all, in face, they are considered an insult and humiliation of the blood of the martyrs and the sacrifices of ten continuous years,” HTS’ statement, which was released on March 7, reads.
The terrorist group also thanked the Turkish government for directly engaging in the recent battle against the SAA and its allies in Greater Idlib
HTS concluded its statement by vowing to fight on against the SAA and its allies, promising that there will be “no peace or security” until the Syrian government is overthrown."  SF

--------------

As I expected. this cease fire is merely a pause in the Idlib Province struggle.  HTS (al-Qa'ida) rejects the cease fire.  Therefore there is no cease fire.  The SAA and allies will use he pause to re-fit and rest units bloodied in the recent fighting and then a pretext will allow R+6 to resume operations intended to clear Idlib of the jihadis and Turks.  How long will the pause last.  It is impossible to say.  The frustration and rage of the war party in Washington and London must be impressive.

All the conspiracy minded drivel now being sent to SST is laughable. The situation is really quite simple.  Erdogan can hardly wait to fulfill his "destiny" as Sultan Caliph and mahdi of the Sunni world and his fantasy of a Europe included in the 'umma.  HTS is uninterested in his fantasy.  They have their own fantasy to fulfill.  pl 

https://southfront.org/surprise-al-qaedas-hts-rejects-russian-turkish-agreement-on-greater-idlib-vows-to-fight-on/

https://southfront.org/damascus-aleppo-highway-open-again-for-traffic-photos/

https://southfront.org/russian-forces-seized-toxic-chemicals-from-turkish-backed-militants-near-syrias-saraqib-report/

«Erdogan leads a panislamist and neo-ottoman project that must be fought urgently» Le Figaro

(Mezri Haddad)

 

We have this translation from the French text courtesy of Phillipe Boileau who lives at Montreal.  pl

-------------------------------

FIGAROVOX/TRIBUNE – The philosopher Mezri Haddad analyses Turkish president Erdogan’s foreign policy. Erdogan aims, in Haddad's  view, to transform Turkey into an anti-Western power on the basis of the conflict of civilisations model of Samuel Huntington.

This essay was published the 3rd of March 2020 at 10:37, and updated the 4th of march 2020 at 01:53 in Le Figaro.

Mezri Haddad is a philosopher and president of the ‘Centre international de géopolitique et de prospective analytique CIGPA’ (International center of geopolitics and analytical prospective)

________________________________________

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been scheming against European countries for a long time. For the second time since 2015, he has carried out his blackmail of migratory flooding by opening his land and sea borders with Greece to thousands of Syrian, Afghan, Iraqi, Pakistani, Somali refugees. Among them, there are certainly terrorist infiltrators who have shaved their beards or shed their burkas. This migration is his "nuclear" deterrent, a human pipeline intended to subject the European Union to pan-Islamism and expansionist oukases [Arbitrary decision, imperative order].

The message of the Istanbul satrap [bureaucrat in a negative sense] is perfectly clear: "To safeguard the borders of Europe, either the Europeans pay me (Erdogan) even more money by supporting me militarily in my war against Damascus alongside my Islamic-terrorist mercenaries, or I pour on her thousands of Syrian hostages who dream of the European Eldorado." For, as far as Syrians are concerned, they are indeed hostages that the Turkish regime has long prevented from returning to their towns and villages pacified and liberated by the Syrian army from the barbarity of Daesh, Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra...

Idlib province is one of the last terrorist strongholds that the Erdogan regime has supported since the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring. The Arab spring’s impacts are now being measured in the aggregation of political, geopolitical, humanitarian, socio-economic and security aspects not only in Syria but also in Libya, Yemen and Tunisia. Tunisia being the most ‘successful’ in its spring by entrusting the reality of power to the servants of Erdogan that are the Muslim Brotherhood! The liberation of Idlib is at the root of this new and very serious migration crisis. Idlib province is the most advanced post of irregular Turkish troops (jihadists) in Syrian territory. In his defense of these terrorists, the Turkish autocrat invoked security and even "humanitarian" reasons, hundreds of inhabitants of these provinces who had fallen under the yoke of theocratic totalitarianism who could flee the war and take refuge in Turkey, like the 4 million Syrians already exiled to the country. Erdogan's deception is useless because it is himself who prevents Syrian refugees from returning to their villages, and who keeps them as a bargaining chip and leverage over Europe. Before carrying out his threats, Erdogan justified his plan to occupy Syrian territories by making Europeans believe that, rather than being invaded by thousands of Syrian refugees, it would be better for them to entrust Turkey’s neo-Ottoman mission to confine these refugees to Idlib and Aleppo.
But European leaders are no longer fooled. Even if it took them a long time to understand it, they now know that the Turkish regime has forged close links with the major terrorist organizations that were rampant in Iraq and Syria and whose ramifications go as far as Europe. At his joint conference in London with Donald Trump on December 3, 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron had the courage to declare: "When I look at Turkey, it now fights those (Kurds) who fought with us, alongside us against the Islamic state. Sometimes the Turks work with IS intermediaries. It's a problem and it's a strategic problem... The common enemy today are terrorist groups and I am sorry that we do not have the same definition of terrorism."

Some thoughts on Idlib Dawn - TTG

The seesaw events of the last few days can be examined from the political dancing and posturing of the major players and from the combatants’ maneuvers on the battlefield. Obviously there is a lot of interplay between the two, but I think it is the soldiers who are driving this train rather than the politicians. I'm also way more comfortable at the grazing fire level than wallowing among the political class.

The SAA still is composed of a few well trained, well led and well equipped combined arms units capable of sustained heavy combat. They are constantly moved to where they are needed most. Most of the SAA positions are manned by lightly armed National Defense Forces (NDF) and local militias. These forces essentially man a picket line against the jihadis. They can defend against light probes, but cannot withstand a major jihadi assault especially when those jihadis are supported by Turkish artillery and armor. That is what happened at Saraqib when the 25th Division and Liwa al Quds were withdrawn to attack the al Zawhiya Mountains and the M4 from the south. It happened again when the 25th and Liwa Al Quds pulled out of that offensive to deal with Saraqib for the second time. Fortunately, the NDF and militias were able to withdraw rather than being overrun and destroyed.

In the face of the SAA success in Operation Idlib Dawn, Erdogan slowly ratcheted up the use of the Turkish Army to bolster his jihadi allies on the battlefield. The SAA adjusted. However, bombing of the convoy resulting in the death of thirty plus Turkish soldiers drove Erdogan to find a way to assuage his embarrassment. I think his retaliation with MLRS, artillery and drone strikes surprised the SAA and the Russians as well. Perhaps the Russians first thought the Turkish strikes were a face saving measure and would stop after the initial strikes. Erdogan thought this Russian pause was a sign of weakness and did not stop his attacks. Another blunder. The R+6 adjusted once again. SAA air defenses were moved to the battlefield. Russian air strikes increased. It appears Russian EW units are now in action against Turkish drones. The SAA is still not directly targeting the Turks, but if the Turks are hanging abound the jihadis, the SAA does not hesitate to strike. With all the Turkish equipment and uniforms supplied to the jihadis, it getting difficult to tell them apart. Russia has told Turkey they could not guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft over Syria. I believe the Iranians have also warned Turkey that all those surrounded Turkish observation posts were under direct observation and could easily be under direct fire. Erdogan’s bluff has been called.

The jihadis are suffering from a lack of sufficient assault troops in spite of Turkish largesse. After retaking Saraqib with several days of relentless assaults and heavy casualties, they pulled many of their fighters off the battlefield to address the threat to the M4 to their west. They could not hold Saraqib and attack south of the M4 at the same time. Their chance to retake Saraqib is now gone. The Russians have moved their MPs into Saraqib as a signal to Erdogan that it is forever part of Syria.

The jihadi counteroffensive in southern Idlib was blunted in a unique way. The SAA in Kafr Nabl let the word that they have withdrawn from Kafr Nabl be spread on social media. In reality, the SAA remained in hidden positions in the town hoping to lure the jihadis into an ambush. It worked. The jihadis advanced and were annihilated. The SAA immediately counterattacked and retook two additional towns. I don’t know what SAA unit this was. It could very well have been an NDF outfit. They are learning. The jihadis are whining about Spetsnaz operating in the area. Maybe they are, maybe they’re not. I actually hope there are Russian advisors working with those second tier NDF units, advising and calling in air strikes. This ambush is something I would have advised them to do. I love the ambush.

The Russians are rapidly replacing the SAA’s battlefield losses in equipment and are not withholding air support to the SAA. Neither Moscow nor Damascus are impressed by Erdogan’s latest histrionics. Trump and the DoD has said no dice to Erdogan’s request for help. It does appear that Pompeo is still trying to drum up some kind of support for “our staunch NATO ally.”

I predict the R+6 will secure both the M4 and M5 in the coming weeks, but will leave Idlib city for another day. They have to let the Turkish frog boil a little longer before he will accept the fact that Idlib is a Syrian city without throwing another hissy fit. He’ll also have to figure out what he’s going to do with all those jihadi friends of his. Libya isn’t going his way, either. 

TTG 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-retakes-the-large-city-of-saraqib-after-fierce-battle/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-deploys-military-to-saraqib-in-clear-message-to-turkey/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-turns-the-table-in-southern-idlib-retakes-ground-in-jabal-al-zawiya/

Idlib Dawn Update "Send lawyers, guns and money" - TTG

Everybody's restless and they've got no place to go

Someone's always trying to tell them
Something they already know
So their anger and resentment flow

But don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long
Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio

You know, the Sheriff's got his problems too
He will surely take them out on you
In walked the village idiot and his face was all aglow
He's been up all night listening to Mohammed's Radio

Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long
Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio

Everybody's desperate trying to make ends meet
Work all day, still can't pay the price of gasoline and meat
Alas, their lives are incomplete

Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio

You've been up all night listening for his drum
Hoping that the righteous might just might just might just come
I heard the General whisper to his aide-de-camp
"Be watchful for Mohammed's lamp"

Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long Mohammed's Radio

This late Warren Zevon's song is echoing through my head today. Whether you fancy yourself Mohammed or the village idiot, I suggest you pay attention to the radio (or internet) for the sh*t is about to truly hit the fan in Syria. The jihadis have managed to retake Saraqib and cut the M5 afters days of relentless and costly attacks. To the south, an SAA attack spearheaded by the 25th Division and Liwa al Quds has retaken another large swath of Idlib south of the M4 including the Al Zawiya Mountains and the Al Ghab Plain. The 25th is now returning to Saraqib to spearhead the counterattack on that front. The 4th Armored Division may be joining them.

This back and forth on the battlefield is to be expected, especially with the direct support provided by Turkey to the jihadis. However something changed today. Russian and Syrian air attacks have increased with devastating results. Wild reports of a strike on a Turkish convoy and/or positions with up to a hundred dead Turkish soldiers are flashing across social media. Up to this point Turkish casualties have been a few here and a few there every day. This is a direct threat to Erdogan's authority. Twitter has been shut down within Turkey to hide the news. Turkish-Russian talks to redefine the Idlib deescalation zone have ended in failure. Erdogan has told all jihadis to be prepared to go for broke and has declared all Syria to be a target of the Grand Sultan's wrath. Putin has told Erdogan that his presence on any Syrian territory is temporary. All Syria will be ruled from Damascus.

Meanwhile, the old lady from South Carolina is pleading with Trump to establish a no fly zone in Idlib. I'm fairly confident that Trump will not fall for such stupidity, but who knows what will happen if Erdogan whispers sweet nothings in Trump's ear.

The rhetoric is becoming increasingly heated and the actions increasingly dangerous. What happens when Erdogan sends waves of refugees to Europe with the threat of Coronavirus in the wind? What happens if Erdogan confiscates Trump towers in Istanbul? Will Erdogan send his air force into Syria and will Russian and Syrian air defenses shoot down the Turkish planes? Is Putin about to deliver an Ottoman slap to Erdogan? Keep your ears to the radio, my friends.

TTG 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-palestinian-forces-advance-across-southern-idlib-video/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/battle-for-al-zawiya-mountain-region-nearing-its-end-as-syrian-troops-reach-last-towns/

“Syrian Army in full control of Aleppo-Damascus Highway for first time 8 years” - TTG

BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:10 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is officially in full control of the Aleppo-Damascus Highway (M-5) after eight years of battle. The Syrian Army said they captured the last points along the highway on Tuesday evening, when their forces took control of the strategic town of Khan Al-‘Assal and the nearby Rashiddeen 4 sector in southwestern Aleppo.

According to the Syrian Army, their forces were able to achieve this imperative victory after capturing several important sites in eastern Idlib, including the cities of Saraqib and Ma’arat Al-Nu’man. While the Aleppo-Damascus Highway is under their control, the roadway will not likely be reopened to the public until the Syrian Army pushes west towards the Turkish border.

The reason for this is due to the fact that the jihadist rebels of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and their allies from the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front (NLF) still maintain a presence along the western part of the Aleppo-Damascus Highway. Furthermore, there are still grave concerns of a potential large-scale Turkish military offensive to reclaim the areas lost by the jihadist rebels over the last few weeks.  (AMN)

————

A lot went on in the last week to get to this point. I and other observers saw this clearing of the M5 as the objective of this phase of operation Idlib Dawn. The SAA is still on the offensive and may be aiming for more. One thing is for certain. The jihadis are having their asses handed to them.

Let’s look at the SAA’s progress in maps. I wish I could make one of those animated battlefield maps like the American Battlefield Trust created for many of our Civil War battles, but that’s beyond my reach.  You’ll have to settle for this series of borrowed maps along with my comments. Most of the recent action took place well north of Saraqib and Idlib.  The 25th Special operations Division continued to move north along the M5 forcing the jihadis east of that highway to retreat to avoid encirclement. The 25th linked up with the Republican Guard near Al Barfoum and Zerbeh along the M5 on 8 February. At that point, the 25th did the unexpected. They struck northwest from ICARDA agricultural research station towards Kafr Aleppo.

 

The axis of this advance took the high ground in the middle of the Idlib plain. It appeared the 25th was heading towards Kafr Nouran, Al Atarib and the Bab al Hawa Highway, Turkey’s main supply route to Idlib.

Idlib Dawn Update - Erdogan’s Dilemma - TTG

25th Division (Tiger Force) soldiers standing on the M4 west of Saraqib

BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:40 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continued their push towards the strategic Aleppo-Latakia Highway (M-4) this afternoon following the capture of two towns earlier today. Backed by heavy artillery, the Syrian Arab Army’s 25th Special Mission Forces Division (formerly Tiger Forces) maneuvered around the Turkish military this afternoon to capture two more towns along this key highway.

According to the latest field report from Idlib, the Syrian Army captured the towns of Al-Turniyah and Nayrab after advancing southwest of Saraqib. As a result of this advance, the Syrian Arab Army found themselves in position to cutoff the Aleppo-Latakia Highway, which resulted in the obstruction of a militant supply route between the cities of Aleppo and Idlib. Furthermore, this advance allowed the Syrian Army to reach the Idlib part of the Aleppo-Latakia Highway for the first time since 2015.

Last night, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out a number of strikes against the Syrian Arab Army, following accusations that the latter killed four Turkish soldiers inside the Idlib Governorate. (AMN)

—————

With this weekend’s advance by the SAA, Erdogan is left not knowing whether to shit or go blind. Over the last week, he sent 200 vehicles including 50 tanks and APCs into Idlib in an effort to thwart the SAA’s taking of Saraqib. He established “observation posts” to the north, east, south and west of the city as shown on the map below.

The OP to the west of Saraqib on the M4 highway came under SAA artillery fire yesterday killing and wounding several Turkish soldiers. Erdogan declared the Astana plan dead. Russia said the Turks moved in without proper coordination so the Turkish casualties are on Erdogan. Iran said that Syria has the right to reclaim her territory even under the Astana plan so Erdogan can pound sand up his ass. It does seem like the SAA will soon create a cauldron with Saraqib full of jihadis and Turks along with a large swath of jihadi infested territory east of Saraqib. 

The SAA is only eight kilometers from Idlib city. They are also making good progress on the Aleppo front. The 30th Republican Guards Division has pushed well beyond Khan Tuman and are still driving towards the M5 north of Saraqib. What will Erdogan do next? Will the Turkish Army finally join their jihadi brethren as full fledged co-belligerents against the SAA and the Russian Aerospace Forces?

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-reaches-important-highway-between-aleppo-and-idlib/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/large-turkish-military-convoy-enters-idlib-as-syrian-troops-advance-towards-saraqib-video/

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/155222/Iran-reacts-to-Erdogan-s-remarks-on-collapse-of-Astana-process

"Free at last!" Brexit, etc.

Brexit.  This is it!  Freedom for the UK!  It took the Irish 700 years to achieve independence for part of their island, but here it is for the UK in only 47 years.  The Scots may depart, preferring the yoke of Brussels, but then, the English and Welsh care not.  Brave souls.  Trumpy will be acquitted in his first senate trial today or maybe tomorrow and will announce the commencement of negotiations for the "greatest trade deal of all time" with Boris, his English doppelganger.  There is the pesky little matter of the British NHS, but some way around that problem will be found.  A US/British trade deal is obviously on the "right side of history."  pl

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/brexit-news-nigel-farage-gloats-eu-parliament-sings-goodbye-to-united-kingdom-2020-01-31/

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Israel/Palestine.  Recommend the linked article below on the multitudinous defects of the "deal of the century."  It mirrors my thinking and so must be a work of genius.  pl

https://prospect.org/world/dont-call-it-a-peace-plan-israel-palestine-trump/

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Turkish Policy.  IMO the Turks have decided that they don't want to fight the R+6 for a piece or all of Idlib Province in Syria.  They haven't really fought anyone since the Korean War and contrary to civilian delusions war is not just a matter of who has the most and biggest toys.  Practice counts a lot.  And, even Erdo may realize that the number and depth of the purges he has inflicted on the Turkish officer corps have certainly caused a decline in the quality of the force.  It is noticeable that when confronted up close by R+6 forces the Turks shy from actual combat.  I remain convinced that a lot of Turkish ambition in Syria is fueled by neo-Ottoman irredentism.  Syria was part of the empire for hundreds of years and the same thing is true of Libya until the Senussi Sufi order's revolt against Ottoman rule in 1911.  Turkey is now exporting pet jihadis from Syria to Libya.  Sounds like they are beginning to give up on long term acquisitions in Syria.  pl 

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/turkey-deployment-libya-threat-escalation-russia-townsend.html

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SpaceX TV and Space voyeurism.  One of the marvels of the modern world is the ability to watch rocket launches into earth orbit on Space X's TeeVee  channel.  You can follow the whole process from the count-down to first stage recovery to delivery of the payload to orbit on Space X Tee Vee live.   https://www.spacex.com/

And … You can get a free app for your phone at the App Store that will notify you when the next launch is ready.  pl 

Macgregor got it part right on Carlson's show last night

Colonel (ret.) Douglas Macgregor was on Tucker Carlson's show last night.  He is a smart man.  Tucker is a smart man. Carlson's show is an outpost of sanity in a neocon run US foreign policy establishment (the Borg).  Carlson deserves the ratings he gets.  I hope those will insulate him from the trepidation that his honesty must inspire in the Murdoch brothers.  The rest of Foxnews is much like a clown car show with the clowns clamoring for the approbation of the White House in their eagerness for a neocon war of conquest in the ME.  Some people never learn.  the last 20 years of disaster in the face of Islamic resistance to Western cultural imperialism have taught them nothing.

Trump started his term as an empty headed business hustler eager to make deals wherever he could and who correctly did not see much of anything to be gained by fighting endlessly all over the Islamic World to impose Israel's 1% policy of eliminating all possible threats from the Muslims.

Trump offered Iran peace negotiations in his post Iran strike speech?  No.  He did not.  He once again offered them the opportunity to surrender to Israeli demands relayed to them by the US.

Now, he is transformed into just another neocon, in fact the neocon in chief.  His foreign policy team is run by neocons and bootlickers who fear Pompeo's scorn.  The Defense part of that team is dominated by the Pompous one and his West Point classmate Esper at DoD.  General Milley and the other present chiefs of staff are carefully chosen to eliminate the possibility of "push-back" from the military. I retract anything bad I ever said about Joe Dunford.  I wish he were still here.

Trump is following the neocon/Ziocon line now.  He evidently believes any silly thing they tell him.  I understand that he has said that Soleimani was engaged in beheading Christians.  Well, pilgrims, if you look below about three posts you  will see a video of Soleimani and al-Muhandis being mourned by Christian clergy and congregations in Aleppo.  Of course, you actually have to understand some Arabic to get that from the video.  These Christians mourn these men as being among those who came to fight the Sunni jihadis at Aleppo.

Macgregor rightly understands that there is no there, there for the USA in the Middle East and Central Asia.  He correctly understands that to try to sort out all the intra-regional ethnic and sectarian rivalries is a fool's errand.  He correctly advocates complete withdrawal from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as does Tulsi Gabbard who was on the same show.

What Macgregor got wrong is that he wants to remain engaged in; Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the GCC generally.  Well, Doug, there is no there, there either.  There is no Soviet threat.  The USA is a net oil and gas exporter.  The Iranians have enemies and quarrels with the Saudis and the Israelis, but, so what?  We are not Israelis.  Neither are we Saudis.

You want to stay engaged in Yemen?  the country is full of nasty little hill men who live to fight.  This is a Saudi problem.

Let all the crazed creatures of that part of the world fight it out.  along the way they will come to muddled partial solutions that will last until the next round of hostility begins.  Tant pis pour eux.  pl

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-iraq-iran-donald-trump-leave-war

Trump moves to unite the Middle East! (irony)

Teevee coverage of the recent events in the ME has been predictable.  Those who hated Trump continue to hate him, etc. 

A few observations:

1. I had hoped that Trump's decision to kill an Iranian general engaged in a diplomatic mission (among other things) while the man was on the soil of a supposed ally of the US was something Trump pulled out of his fundament either inspired by war movies or on the recommendation of "our greatest ally" but I am informed that in fact some idiot in the DoD included this option in the list of possibilities that was briefed to the CinC in Florida.  The decision process in such matters requires that when options are demanded by the CinC the JCS prepares a list supported for each option by fully formulated documentation that enables the president to approve one (or none) and then sign the required operational order.  Trump himself chose the death option.  I would hold General Milley (CJCS) personally responsible for not striking this option from the list before it reached the CinC. 

2.  The Iranians are a subtle people.  IMO they will bide their time whilst working out the "bestest" way to inflict some injury on the US and/or Israel.  When the retaliation comes it will be imaginative and painful.

3.  Trump is  now threatening the Iraqis with severe sanctions if they try to enforce their parliamentary decree against the future presence of foreign (US mostly) troops on their soil.  IMO a refusal to leave risks a substantial Shia (at least) uprising against the US forces in Iraq.  We have around 5,500 people there now spread across the country in little groups engaged in logistics, intelligence and training missions.  They are extremely vulnerable.  There are something like 150 marines in the embassy.  There are also a small number of US combat forces in Syria east and north of the Euphrates river.  These include a battalion of US Army National Guard mechanized troops "guarding" Syria's oil from Syria's own army and whatever devilment the Iranians might be able to arrange.

4.  This is an untenable logistical situation.  Supply and other functions require a major airfield close to Baghdad.  We have Balad airbase and helicopter supply and air support from there into Baghdad is possible from there but may become hazardous.  Iraq is a big country.  It is a long and lonely drive from Kuwait for re-supply from there or evacuation through there.  The same thing is true of the desert route to Jordan.

5.  Trump's strategery appears to be based on the concept that the Iraqis will submit to our imperial demands.  "We will see."  pl

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-strike-live-updates/2020/01/06/3b5451f2-3024-11ea-9313-6cba89b1b9fb_story.html?rand=4

"Latest situation in foreign forces deployment in Syria" Yeni Safak

"The U.S. forces evacuated 16 bases and military posts during Operation Peace Spring and returned to six bases as the operation was paused.

The U.S. army strengthened its military presence in Syria’s northeastern border and oil fields.

With five bases and military posts in Hasakah province, the U.S. forces are conducting efforts to set up two other military posts in Qahtaniyah town and Himo village in Qamishli city.

The U.S. aims to both secure oil fields in Hasakah and strengthen its presence on the Turkish border with the military posts.

The U.S. forces are currently deployed at 11 bases and military posts, including five in Hasakah, four in Deir ez-Zor and two in Raqqa.

They also carry out efforts to set up two new bases in Deir ez-Zor."  Yebi Safak

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Yes, this newspaper is pro-Erdo but this looks like a useful map to lay out where everyone is at present.  The map does not extend far enough south to include the US roadblocking position at Al Tanf on the Syrian/Iraqi border but other than that- pretty complete.  pl

 

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/latest-situation-in-foreign-forces-deployment-in-syria-3507700

"Joltin'" Jack Keane wants your kids to fight Russia and Syria over Syrian oil.

"Joltin" Jack Keane, General (ret.), Fox Business Senior Strategery Analyst,  Chairman of the Board of the Kagan run neocon "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW)  and Graduate Extraordinaire of Fordham University, was on with Lou Dobbs last night.  Dobbs appears to have developed a deep suspicion of this paladin.  He stood up to Keane remarkably well.  This was refreshing in light of the fawning deference paid to Keane by all the rest of the Fox crew.

In the course of this dialogue Keane let slip the slightly disguised truth that he and the other warmongers want to keep something like 200 US soldiers and airmen in Syria east of the Euphrates so that they can keep Iran or any other "Iranian proxy forces" from crossing the Euphrates from SAG controlled territory to take control of Syrian sovereign territory and the oil and gas deposits that are rightly the property  of the Syrian people and their government owned oil company.  The map above shows how many of these resources are east of the Euphrates.  Pilgrims!  It is not a lot of oil and gas judged by global needs and markets, but to Syria and its prospects for reconstruction it is a hell of a lot! 

Keane was clear that what he means by "Iranian proxy forces" is the Syrian Arab Army, the national army of that country.  If they dare cross the river, to rest in the shade of their own palm trees, then in his opinion the air forces of FUKUS should attack them and any 3rd party air forces (Russia) who support them

This morning, on said Fox Business News with Charles Payne, Keane was even clearer and stated specifically that if "Syria" tries to cross the river they must be fought.

IMO he and Lindsey Graham are raving lunatics brainwashed for years with the Iran obsession and they are a danger to us all.  pl

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/graham-fox-news-star-showed-trump-map-change-his-mind-n1069901

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Syria

The new reality in Rojava - TTG

Rojava is dead. Long live the Syrian Arab Republic. The new Russia-Turkish agreement goes a long way in reestablishing Syria’s territorial integrity and foiling Erdogan’s dream of a new Ottoman Empire. It also provides the Rojava Kurds their best hope for a future whether they realize it or not. First, here’s the agreement.

————

President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President of The Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin agreed on the following points:

1. The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of Turkey.

2. They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.

3. In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and Ras Al Ayn with a depth of 32 km will be preserved.

4. Both sides reaffirm the importance of the Adana Agreement. The Russian Federation will facilitate the implementation of the Adana Agreement in the current circumstances.

5. Starting 12.00 noon of October 23, 2019, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will enter the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border, outside the area of Operation Peace Spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border, which should be finalized in 150 hours. At that moment, joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10 km, except Qamishli city.

6. All YPG elements and their weapons will be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat.

7. Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltrations of terrorist elements.

8. Joint efforts will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and voluntary manner.

9. A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.

10. The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict within Astana Mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional Committee.

————

Why do I think this is such a good deal for Syria and the Rojava Kurds? The key is in the first two points of the agreement. The current northern border is preserved. That is a huge win for Damascus. Turkey will be sending a substantial number of Syrian refugees back south of the border to areas not now populated by Kurds. This is a major plus for Erdogan. He can claim this as a victory and save face. Both sides agree to fight terrorists. Turkey won’t fight the jihadis, but the Russians in the joint patrols sure will. And the SAA won’t let them sleep either. The jihadis will not be able to prey on the Kurds living near the border. 

The YPG/SDF will be away from the border which also can be claimed as a Turkish victory. However, remember that the SAA-SDF agreement of last week calls for incorporating the YPG/SDF into the SAA 5th Assault Corps. Armed Kurds will still be among the Kurds looking out for Kurdish interests under the auspices of the SAA. That’s where the Kurds win. The SAA and Russian patrols will be be no kinder to jihadis in Rojava than they are to the Idlib jihadis.

Speaking of Idlib, it appears the offensive to reduce that jihadi salient is about to kick off. SAA units are massed in northern Latakia where Syrian and Russian air assets have been pounding the living crap out of the jihadis. President Assad visited his front line troops today. I would say things are about to get real in northern Latakia and Idlib.

TTG

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-and-russian-military-police-to-deploy-on-border-putin-and-erdogan-reach-agreement-on-northeastern-syria/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/new-map-of-northern-syria-after-agreement-on-turkish-border-region/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armys-idlib-offensive-to-begin-at-any-moment/

Brief Update on the Border Situation - TTG

Much has been made of the 120 hour truce supposedly negotiated by Pence and Erdogan. The “negotiation” called for the SDF to pull all its force back from the border. As I told Elaine earlier today, whatever Pence and Erdogan agreed to has no effect on the YPG, the SAA or the Russians. For that matter, it has little effect on the jihadis, either. The SAA has taken over the Kobani border post and have started to move heavy weapons into the area. The dog and pony show in Ankara means nothing… except for possibly assuaging Trump’s ego over his recent goat roping with Erdogan. I believe the true target of this ceasefire announcement is the US Congress which is about to impose sanctions on Turkey.

The SAA deployment to the border is continuing. At the same time, Russian and Syrian strikes on jihadi position in Latakia are intensifying in preparation for resuming the offensive on that front. In the meantime, the jihadis are bound to make some more temporary advances east of the Euphrates. All in good time, my friends, all in good time.  

————

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:00 A.M.) – The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have once again fended off a powerful attack by the Turkish-backed militants at the key border city of Ras Al-‘Ayn in northwestern Al-Hasakah. Backed by heavy airstrikes from the Turkish Air Force, the so-called “Syrian National Army” attempted to advance from the western districts of Ras Al-‘Ayn towards the city-center; however, they were unable to crack the SDF’s lines. According to a report from northern Al-Hasakah, the Syrian Democratic Forces were able to foil the militant advance, while also inflicting heavy casualties within the ranks of the Turkish-backed militants.

While the Turkish-backed militants were able to advance at Tal Abyad in Al-Raqqa, their offensive at Ras Al-‘Ayn has been plagued with heavy losses in personnel and very litle progress inside the city.

Since establishing their military cooperation agreement with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in northern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces have been able to free up several units and redeploy them to the Ras Al-‘Ayn front. This has been incredibly important for the SDF, as they have been able to reinforce their front-lines at Ras Al-‘Ayn and its surroundings. (Al Masdar News)

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sdf-kills-several-militants-to-defeat-another-turkish-backed-attack-on-border-city/

BOHICA Update - TTG

This is a report from Jennifer Griffin, national security correspondent for Fox News, after a phone conversation with an SF soldier in Syria. She filed the report by Twitter within the last two hours.

I just spoke to a distraught US Special Forces soldier who is among the 1000 or so US troops in Syria tonight who is serving alongside the SDF Kurdish forces. It was one of the hardest phone calls I have ever taken.

"I am ashamed for the first time in my career."

This veteran US Special forces soldier has trained indigenous forces on multiple continents. He is on the frontlines tonight and said they are witnessing Turkish atrocities.

"Turkey is not doing what it agreed to. It's horrible," this military source on the ground told me. "We met every single security agreement. The Kurds met every single agreement. There was NO threat to the Turks - NONE - from this side of the border." "This is insanity," the concerned US service member told me. ""I don't know what they call atrocities but they are happening."

This American soldier told me the Kurds have not left their positions guarding the ISIS prisoners. In fact "they prevented a prison break last night without us." 

"They are not abandoning our side (yet)."

The Kurds are "pleading for our support." We are doing "nothing."

Troops on the ground in Syria and their commanders were "surprised" by the decision Sunday night. Of the President's decision: "He doesn't understand the problem. He doesn't understand the repercussions of this. Erdogan is an Islamist, not a level headed actor."

This US Special Forces soldier wanted me to know: "The Kurds are sticking by us. No other partner I have ever dealt with would stand by us."

Disappointed in the decisions coming from their senior leaders.

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So what is happening on this opening day of Erdogan's Operation PeaceSpring? Turkey has launched air strikes and artillery barrages on Kurdish military and civilian targets along the entire border east of the Euphrates. The Rojava Information Center reported earlier today:

• 7 serious injuries (two of them female) to adults
• 4 children injured (between 2-6 years old), at least 2 dead 
• Hospital in Sere Kaniye is bombed out of service 
• Largest Christian neighborhood (Bisheriya) in NE Syria was bombarded, 2 civilians died

Erdogan's jihadi auxiliaries have crossed the border and IS sleeper cells have attacked in Raqqa. The YPG repelled at least one assault on Tal Abyad and destroyed a small Turkish outpost west of Kobani. The YPG has ceased all anti IS operations to deal with this new invasion. This is just the beginning of what will be a long, sad story.

Turkey has coordinated its strikes with Russia. We have no idea what was agreed to by these two. Qatar had voiced support for Erdogan's move. Saudi Arabia, surprisingly, has condemned it. Damascus, obviously, has also condemned it, but puts at least some of the blame on the intransigence of the Kurds. My guess is that SAA and Russian forces will cross the Euphrates to prevent Turkish and jihadi forces from retaking any oilfields. Seems the next phase of Operation Idlib Dawn will have to wait. Whether the SAA will end up fighting side by side with the YPG against Erdogan's jihadis or even Erdogan's troops is anybody's guess at this point. Stay tuned.

TTG 

BOHICA! - TTG

The Rojava Kurds should have seen this coming. The US has a long standing tradition of abandoning Kurds. The abandonment is not the worst part of this policy decision. It is the decision to turn over the jihadis captured by US, YPG and SDF forces over the last few years to Turkey... just in time for Erdogan's announced invasion of northeast Syria. Those jihadis will be rearmed and sent into battle across northern Syria, including Idlib, by Erdogan. Ah, the dreams of a neo-Ottoman Empire are coming into focus.

It appears Fox News, the neocons and the old lady from South Carolina were blindsided by this move.

And while news of the U.S. pullout stunned Syrian Kurds, the announcement also "completely blindsided" top brass at the Pentagon, U.S. officials told Fox News.

Aside from the existential threat to the Kurdish fighters posed by Turkey, Syrian Kurdish forces are also warning that ISIS sleeper cells are actively plotting to free about 12,000 militants currently detained by the Kurds and may take advantage of the Turkey-triggered turmoil to aid their plans.

Those in custody include about 2,500 foreign fighters from Europe and elsewhere whose native countries have been reluctant to take them back — and about 10,000 other captured fighters from Syria and Iraq. (Fox News)

It is too bad Trump allowed himself to be talked out of leaving Syria back at the beginning of his term. That would have given the Kurds the incentive to make peace with Damascus and left a united R+6 in a better position to take on the jihadis and keep the Turks at bay. Trump's rationale of "withdrawing America from an endless war that does not serve US interests" is reasonable and worthy. But his timing is terrible, even characteristically cruel. Worse yet, he still plans on keeping the troops in Syria, just out of the way of the coming Turkish invasion. It's the worst of both worlds for everyone except Erdogan.

On a personal note, I find the treachery of this move to be shameful and abhorrent, not unexpected or without reason, but shameful and abhorrent. My 10th Group coin was vibrating in rage on the nightstand. 

TTG

https://www.foxnews.com/world/turkey-syria-isis-mass-prison-break-us-withdrawal

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7546419/Trump-defends-Syria-pullout-Graham-says-ISIS-defeat-Trumps-biggest-lie.html

 

A "safe zone" in Rojava is averted… for now - TTG

BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:00 P.M.) – Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar said on Wednesday that talks with the U.S. on a safe zone in northern Syria have been ‘positive’ after a previous meeting left Ankara agitated. “We witnessed with satisfaction that our partners grew closer to our position. The meetings were positive and quite constructive,” Akar stated, as quoted by state-owned Anadolu Agency. “Our plans, preparations, the deployment of our units in the field are all complete. But we said we wanted to act together with our friend and ally, the United States,” Akar continued, adding “if that isn’t possible, we have said multiple times that we will do what is necessary.”

Turkey previously threatened to launch a large-scale military operation to capture the eastern region of the Euphrates River Valley. According to Ankara, the eastern Euphrates region is controlled by ‘terrorist’ groups allied to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). In particular, the Turkish regime has accused the U.S. Coalition of harboring the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG), who Ankara says is an offshoot of the PKK.

Washington has denied coordinating with the YPG, but maintains that they work with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who is made up of several ethnic groups, including Kurds and Arabs. (Al Masdar News)

——————

That’s the Turkish view of the just completed negotiations in Ankara with the US Embassy to work toward establishing a “safe zone” along the entire northern border with Syria. The US Embassy issued a short, terse statement:

From August 5-7, 2019, U.S. and Turkish military delegations met at the Turkish Ministry of Defense to discuss plans to coordinate the establishment of a safe zone in northern Syria.

The delegations agreed on the following:

a) the rapid implementation of initial measures to address Turkey’s security concerns;

b) to stand-up a joint operations center in Turkey as soon as possible in order to coordinate and manage the establishment of the safe zone together;

c) that the safe zone shall become a peace corridor, and every effort shall be made so that displaced Syrians can return to their country.

Mazlum Abdi, an SDF spokesman, said this after the US-Turkish agreement was announced: “With regard to the safe zone, we certainly accept it and support it if it is intended to support stability and peace in the region, and we have shown a lot of flexibility so far in this context, but there are Turkish conditions that are completely rejected. Turkey wants to stay in the region and control it, or pushing militant factions to be part of the safe zone, this is not acceptable in any way. But in the framework of coordination With the coalition forces and the U.S army, monitoring patrols can be conducted”

In my view, Turkey is holding a strong hand and is playing it well. Turkey has been massing its forces and especially her jihadi allies across her southern border east of the Euphrates in preparation for an invasion to drive the Kurds away from that border. Surely the purpose of this offensive is not so much to eliminate this perceived threat, but to expand the new Ottoman Empire at the expense of Syria. The US agreed to establish a joint headquarters for this safe zone in a desperate effort to stave off this Turkish offensive. The Kurds, who remain the backbone of the SDF, would have rushed to the border to defend Rojava from a Turkish invasion. Although the Kurds would make the Turks and their jihadi allies pay dearly for every inch of Rojava, they are no match for the full might of the Turkish military. Even so, I don’t think Erdogan is ready to risk throwing his full military force into an invasion. An invasion may also spread his jihadi allies too thin. He may very well lose Idlib and the area around Aleppo as the price of gaining a strip of Rojava. For now he is content with what he has extracted from the US Embassy.

Neither the Syrian forces nor the YPG forces are in a position to defend that border against a full scale Turkish incursion. They are both otherwise occupied. Russia has influence, but I don’t think she is willing to bloody Erdogan’s nose or even demand he abandon his dream of a new Ottoman Empire. Russia has a longer term goal concerning her relationship with Turkey. The US dreads an open conflict with a NATO ally and does not have sufficient forces in the area to successfully deter Erdogan’s aspirations. So, although a wide scale invasion of Rojava has been temporarily averted, Erdogan is left sitting in the catbird seat at least for now.

TTG  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-says-talks-with-us-on-syria-safe-zone-have-been-positive/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/07/turkish-assault-kurdish-held-syria-averted-agreement-us-safezone/

Turkey, NATO and Russia

Let's have a discussion of what is going to happen with regard to Turkey in light of:

1.  The S-400 sale

2.  The F-35 sale

3.  Pom-pom and the 'stache.

4.  Putin's amused trouble-making

5.  Trumps unpredictability

6.  Erdo's recent defeat in the Istanbul municipal election.

7.  Neo-Ottoman irredentism

Whatever ...   pl

The Fortunes of War - four killed in Manbij

(a Templar - We had ours too)

"Two U.S. service members, one Department of Defense (DoD) civilian and one contractor supporting DoD were killed and three service members were injured in the recent attack in the northern Syrian city of Manbij, the U.S. Army Central Command (CENTCOM) announced at the late hours of January 16.

“Initial reports indicate an explosion caused the casualties, and the incident is under investigation,” CENCTOM said in a short press release.

Earlier, ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack and revealed that it was carried out by a suicide bomber named “Abu Yasin al-Shami.” According to local sources, al-Shami blew himself up in a patrol of the US-led coalition in front of the Prince Restaurant in the center of Manbij.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the attack could be meant to dissuade the U.S. from leaving Syria. However, he stressed that he believes in President Donald Trump’s determination to withdraw troops from Syria.

This was the bloodiest attack against US-led coalition troops in Syria since the beginning of the war on ISIS in 2014. Prior to it, the terrorist group’s cells targeted Kurdish fighters and prominent local figures mostly."  SF

------------

Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you.

Senator Rand Paul tried to explain to the Fox and Friends people today that, as George Carlin used to say, "These are ancient feuds, now fought with better weapons."  Well, maybe a suicide belt is not all that much better a weapon but you get the idea.  Senator Paul attempted to make the point that the peoples of the region however divided tribally, religiously, politically, have a strong inclination to fight each other on a zero sum game basis.  Where this is not true that change is usually the result of foreign influences that have altered the pattern.  Brian Kilmeade the loudest and most simian of the morning crew on Fox attempted to shout down the senator with the usual hyper-aggressive drivel about fighting in Manbij rather than Bayonne, but Paul persisted and Kilmeade finally shut up, probably after a producer spoke to him.  Some of these men on Fox need a white plastic pocket protector to complete their costuming as tribunes of the Deplorables.

Paul's essential point was correct.  This was the simple fact that there will always be Islamic extremists of various sectarian allegiance in the ME.  Should we be surprised that there are IS stay behinds in northern Syria?  We should not be. 

Trump is correct.  Get the hell out and let the Russians try to make peace in Syria.  pl

https://southfront.org/u-s-army-central-command-reveals-details-of-manbij-attack/

It is worse than a crime. It is a blunder."

"On January 16, Turkey’s Anadolu Agency released a map of the alleged safe zone in the area east of the Euphrates in northern Syria, which had been recently discussed between the US and Turkey. According to the Turkish side, this zone would include the entire area from  the town of Jarabulus to the town of al-Malikiyah.

Ankara has been for a long time demanding to force Kurdish armed groups [YPG and Kurdish SDF units] out of the border area with Turkey. However, Washington, which uses these groups as its main proxy force, has been against this plan.

It seems that this situation may have changed."  SF

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If this "deal" is really the product of a "gut" level conversation between Trump and Erdogan (presumably through translators?), then it is an argument against the personal conduct of diplomacy by heads of state.  There is no doubt that the president of the United States has the power and right to conduct such diplomacy.  That being the case, the results of such personal effort must be examined.

I, personally, share the view of William Barr that Article 2 of the US Constitution establishes that the President of the US IS the Executive Branch and that all authority within the Executive Branch derives from that of the president.  His or her power is limited by the requirement in Article 2 that he or she should cause the laws to be faithfully be executed.  The president cannot make law.  Only the Congress can legislate.

In this case what was evidently agreed to by the duopoly of Trump/Erdogan was the effective extension of Turkish authority into a wide band of Syrian sovereign territory.  Turkey has sought this as a minimum requirement for its security for a long time.  IMO Turkey has even greater actual ambitions in Syria than this, but Trump's simplistic understanding of the ME, dividing the players up into good guys and bad guys, supporters and non-supporters has, IMO, led him to think that there are certain good guys; Israel-Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Jordan-Iraq- the Kurds and then there are bad guys; ISIS-AQ-the SAG-Iran, etc.  In that context, anything that favors the good guys must be good and vice versa.

To give Turkey a license to take Syria one bite a time based on a lack of sophistication in understanding the true nature of the countries and peoples of the region is a terrible mistake.

"C'est pire qu'un crime, c'est une faute."  pl

https://southfront.org/map-turkish-proposed-safe-zone-east-of-euphrates-in-northern-syria/

"Whither the Kurds?" Dorsey

"Kurdish hopes are often vested in predictions articulated by former CIA and National Security Agency director Michael Hayden that “Iraq no longer exists, Syria no longer exists”[v][5] as well as the disintegration of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia in the wake of the demise of communist rule. That remains a possibility but more realistic is the fact, at least in the immediate future, the Syrian and Iraqi states as they existed in the past are more likely to change rather than dissolve. The lesson of the 2017 Iraqi Kurdish referendum and the fact that the Iraqi state has already demonstrated resilience in surviving and its Syrian counterpart may well do so too, means that Kurds will have to strive for some autonomous accommodation within a federal structure."  Dorsey

------------

Dorsey's main points are that the Kurds of Iraq and Syria have been taught valuable even if painful lessons:

1.  The United States has been and remains committed to the existence of the post World War One geographical constructs that are the Iraqi and Syrian states.  In the heady atmosphere that accompanied the "Arab Spring," revolts which were largely supported by the Obama Administration, and the decades long flirtation of the US Borg (foreign policy establishment) with the Kurds, the Kurdish people conceived the idea after 9/11 that the US would support them in resistance to non-Kurdish governments in Iraq and Syria even unto support for Kurdish independence and full Kurdish control of petroleum resources in their parts of these countries. 

2.  They have been shown to be wrong in that hope.  The devotion and reverence of the US Borg for the supposed sanctity of international borders and the existence of what is conceived by the Borg to be to an international order in which those borders cannot ever be changed has proven to be much stronger than any other factors including the lure of concessionary contracts in oil and gas from new Kurdish states.

3.  The United States is not a reliable ally in any cause not generally thought to be a struggle against a possibly fatal threat to the US as a country.  The citizenry of the US simply have no interest in less than total wars waged against what is conceived of as great evil.  The Borg understands this disinterest by the public in what the Borg thinks of as a desirable set of tools in the "game of nations." Because of that phenomenon great efforts have been made in IO to sell the Borg Wars as existential for the US.  The American people now see through that deception and Trump has acted on this conviction that he shares with the people.  In that context betrayal of the Kurds has become a necessary evil.

4.  Neither the Kurds not any other hapless minority people will ever have the grip on the collective imagination of the American People and the Congress that Israel has.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/whither-the-kurds/

Hold your breath. - The SAA is invited into Manbij by the SDF

(SAA's logo)

"On December 28, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) released an official statement inviting the Damascus government to assert control of the areas, from which YPG units had allegedly withdrawn, in particular Manbij. The YPG added that the decision is caused by the Turkish threat and that the group will concentrate its efforts on combating ISIS.

Syrian troops reportedly started entering the town of Manbij in the morning of the same day.

Meanwhile, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) have continued concentrating troops and military equipment near the Syrian border. According to fresh reports, the TAF has deployed at least 10 M60T battle tanks and several armored vehicles in the province of Kilis."  SF

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Hallelujah!  Or more properly al-hamdulillah! (praise be to God), people who wish Syria well have prayed for a re-integration of the SDF and the territory it has controlled into Syria proper under Syrian government control.  Now this has begun in earnest thanks to the Turkish menace and the decision of Trump to withdraw all but a few GB liaison soldiers from the territory of Syria.  The SDF cleverly writes that it will continue to fight but concentrating on remaining IS forces as in the Hajin pocket in the SE where the US will continue to support them with fire from across the border with Iraq as well as supply.

So far the press has not chosen to note a steady flow of refugees returning to Syria from Lebanon and Jordan.  pl

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-dec-28-2018-ypg-invites-syrian-army-to-manbij/

Two new US bases in western Iraq.

"The U.S. military has established two new bases along the Iraqi-Syrian border, the Turkish state-owned Anadolu Agency reported on Tuesday.

Citing an Iraqi official, the Anadolu Agency said the U.S. military established the two bases in the western countryside of the Al-Anbar.

“The U.S. Army has established two new military facilities in uninhabited parts of the province,” Farhan al-Duleimi, a member of Anbar’s provisional council, told Anadolu Agency.

The first base, he said, had been set up in the northern Rumana subdistrict (in Anbar’s Al-Qaim district) near the Syrian border, roughly 360 kilometers west of provincial capital Ramadi.

The second base, he added, had been set up east of the city of Al-Rutbah, roughly 310 kilometers west of Ramadi and less than 100 kilometers from the Syrian border.

According to al-Duleimi, the twin bases are intended to help Iraqi forces “secure the country’s borders and prevent infiltrations by the Daesh terrorist group.”

“Scores of U.S. soldiers are currently stationed at the two bases, along with drones and other equipment,” al-Duleimi said without elaborating."

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-builds-two-military-bases-along-syrian-border-map/

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The generals' club is probably at work in this, seeking to limit the effect of Trump's order for US forces to withdraw from Syria.

The one in roumana sub-district  is the location from which US Army 155mm artillery is firing in support of continuing  SDF attacks against the hajin pocket in the SE corner of Syria.  There will be US Army GBs with the SDF adjusting these fires.  IMO those GBs will be left in Syria to do what only they do best, keep the locals in the fight.  This base will be useful as a forward staging point for any raids that SOF forces might want to make into Syria (kill Baghdadi, etc.)

The other base is at rutbah and is positioned astride the highway from al-tanf in Syria.  In this position it will continue to obstruct the Damascus-Baghdad-Iran main ground route. 

These two facilities will surely be supported and supplied from the al-asad air bast which Trump visited.  pl

"Russia allegedly warns Turkey to stay out of Syria"

"The Russian Federation has allegedly warned Turkey to stay out of Syria and to let the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad retake the entire country.

According to a report from the Associated Press, the Russian Federation warned Turkey against capturing the territories that were under the control of the U.S.-backed forces in northern Syria.

Despite these claims by the AP, the Russian Federation has yet to issue any statement warning Turkey against launching their offensive against the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG).

Instead, the Russian Foreign Ministry has reiterated that they are working closely with Turkey in Syria, adding that all activities are discussed prior to being conducted."  AP and MN

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-allegedly-warns-turkey-to-stay-out-of-syria-let-assad-take-back-country/

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If this is true it is a major development that will serve to constrain Turkish ambitions from Manbij to the east all the way to the Iraqi border.  The Russian Foreign Ministry is understandably silent about such a statement to the Turks preferring to discuss such matters in private so as to not humiliate the other side in such a way as preclude agreement.  pl

A neo-Ottoman "good deal"

"Turkey has proposed the United States to study Russian-made S-400 missile defense system when Ankara will get them from Moscow, Bloomberg claimed citing anonymous sources.

According to Bloomberg’s claims, by this, Turkey was seeking to settle the S-400 deal issue with the US. However, the media outlet provided no evidence to confirm the claims. Most likely this report is another attempt to media organizations affiliated with the US establishment to undermine the Russian-Turkish deal.

Furthermore, the report came amid a decision by the US State Department to allow a possible sale of Patriot missile defense systems to Ankara."  SF and Bloomberg

------------

I lived in Turkey at Izmir for several years a long time ago and have repeatedly returned to visit friends and to watch the country grow in wealth and sophistication  I have traveled the whole country.  I like Turkey; the people, the cuisine, the art, the whole package but it must be said that the neo-Ottoman, Erdogan side of Turkey's nature is not to be trusted.  As I have written before the dream of those Turks is a restoration of the ecumenical multi-national state that was the Ottoman Empire

All of Syria and Iraq were Ottoman territory before WW1 and had been that for several hundred years.  The very concept of Arab nationality developed in the 19th Century among Ottomans educated in Beirut and Istanbul in missionary run institutions like Robert College and the American College of Beirut.  Before that experience fermented into nationalism the seeds were planted in places like that which were in fact distributed all across the Islamic World.  Ottoman government was everywhere present in the Arab World proper but not in regions like Iran and what is now the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.  That part of the Arabian Peninsula was then closely observed by the Government of India  and more or less controlled through subventions to local rulers.

In pursuit of their irredentist dream the present government of Turkey believe that any combination of deception, skullduggery and sheer armed force is justified.  The reported offer of Turkey to allow the US to inspect and analyze the S-400 Russian SAM system in return for completion of sales of US Patriot SAMs and F-35 fighters is not at all outside the "frame" for governmental actions in the Middle East. 

It should be expected that if the US accepts such an offer, the same offer will be made to Russia concerning US made equipment.  pl

https://southfront.org/bloomberg-turkey-proposed-u-s-to-study-russian-made-s-400-systems/

The Kurds and the art of BOHICA - TTG

US President Donald Trump gave a positive response to Turkey’s operation east of the Euphrates, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on December 17 following a phone call with the US President, according to Turkish media. “We can start our operation any moment now in Syrian territory at any place, especially along the 500-kilometer border, without harming U.S. soldiers,” Erdogan said at the opening ceremony at Mevlana Square in central Konya province.

Erdogan said that he had told his Trump that “terrorists” must leave the region east of the Euphrates River. “If they don’t go, we will send them,” he said. “The terror corridor [in Syria] is disturbing us. Since we are partners with the US, we must do this.”

The Turkish President also called on the US to uphold to the Manbij deal to clear the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from the region. “Our fight against terrorism in the Syrian territory will continue until a political solution is opened,” Erdogan said.

Last weekend, Erdogan announced that Turkey is about to launch to a military operation against the YPG in the area east of the Euphrates. According to sources in pro-Turkish militant groups, about 15,000 members of pro-Turkish militant factions are ready to participate in this attack.  (SouthFront)

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Erdogan announced this coming offensive on 12 December during the Turkish Defense Industry Summit. There has been a steady beat of the war drums in Turkey since that announcement. The initial targets of this FSA offensive appear to be Kobani (Ayn Arab) and Tell Abyad. Although the FSA forces are massing north of the border, Turkish troops will not take part in order to avoid any confrontation with US forces. 

The US has established observation posts in this area ostensibly to protect Turkey from “terror threats.” In actuality the presence of US troops on the border are meant to discourage the kind of invasion that Erdogan announced on the 12th. This South Front article casts doubts on this strategy. Has Trump decided to abandon the Rojava Kurds? We have a rich tradition of abandoning Kurds so he would not be breaking new ground here. However, the Kurdish YPG/YPJ are the backbone of the SDF and our ongoing efforts to establish a lasting presence east of the Euphrates. Perhaps Trump has decided to abandon that policy. Has he made peace (in his mind) with Iran? That would be a major shift and a major blow to neocon strategy in the region. It would also be a kick square in the stones of both the Israelis and Saudis.

Unfortunately, Erdogan may be reading too much into his phone conversation with Trump. Trump has a lot on his mind right now and he may not have clearly expressed what he wants or is willing to accept. It wouldn’t be the first time a poorly enunciated political message has led to an invasion in the region. We won’t know until Erdogan’s FSA jihadis cross the border and threaten Kobani. Remember the last time the jihadis were at the gates of Kobani? We brought scunion down on their heads while the YPG/YPJ held them by their short and curlies.

TTG

https://southfront.org/trump-gives-positive-response-to-turkeys-operation-east-of-euphrates-erdogan/

Turkey has given the Khashoggi tapes to the US, UK, France, Germany and Saudi Arabia

 "Turkey has given recordings on the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi embassy in Istanbul to Saudi Arabia, the US, Germany, France and the UK, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on November 10.

Speaking before his departure for France to attend commemorations to mark the 100th anniversary of the end of World War One, Erdogan stated that the killer of Jamal Khashoggi is among a group of 15 Saudi citizens who arrived in Turkey one day ahead of the October 2 murder.

Previously, Ankara claimed to have had audio of the murder ever since the journalist went missing on October 2, after going inside the Saudi consulate, never to be seen again.

Initially, Saudi Arabia denied that Khashoggi was killed inside the building, insisting that he left it. Later, Riyadh changed its story to say the journalist was accidentally killed in a fist fight with consultate workers. Latr, the Saudi story was changed again. Now, Riyadh insists that the killing was carried out in a rogue operation unbeknownst to the leadership.

In turn, Erdogan has stated that that Khashoggi had been killed on order from the “highest levels” of the Saudi government."  SF

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It is clear that Turkey is intent on discrediting Saudi Arabia in the Muslim World and also with the rest of us.  One might argue that they were already in low repute, but every little bit helps.

Trump, Macron and the other boys and girls can add this to their agenda for the present meeting about the end of WW1.  pl 

https://southfront.org/erdogan-turkey-gave-khashoggi-death-recordings-to-saudi-arabia-us-uk-france-germany/

Gina Haspel "heard Khashoggi audio"

 

"CIA director Gina Haspel has heard audio recordings that are believed to capture the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, media reports say.

They say Ms Haspel was allowed to listen to the audio during a visit to Turkey earlier this week.

Khashoggi, a US-based critic of the Saudi government, was killed during a visit to its consulate in Istanbul.

Saudi Arabia has blamed the killing on "rogue agents". The case has strained relations with the US and other allies.

Soon after the murder on 2 October, Turkish media quoted officials as saying they had audio recordings of Khashoggi's interrogation and death, but gave no details about the contents or how the audio had been obtained."BBC

--------------

Someone asked on SST what the purpose was of DCIA's trip to Turkey.  My suggestion was that she was there as another pair of eyes for Trump.

Well, pilgrims, Gina Haspel has a reputation as a hard nosed fact oriented intelligence pro.  There are not a lot of those around any longer.  Hiring and promoting policies over the last 30 years have changed the nature of the work force at the national level.  The Cold War era IC work force was a lot like a monastic order.  It was devoted to the trade of espionage and to analytic studiousness in modern scriptoria.  They were intensely proud of the often elegant results of the work.

In the era of identity politics and political correctness the emphasis in hiring and firing has been on things like gender, race, sexual orientation, etc.  The old breed are largely gone.  "Showboats" are everywhere.

In that context Haspel stands out as an exception.  Trump will listen to Haspel on this.  pl  

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45977041

The demise of Davos in the Desert - TTG

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin just announced he will not be attending the Future Investment Initiative Summit in Saudi Arabia next week. Obviously he didn’t decide this on his own. His announcement stated that this was done after consultation with Trump and Pompeo. Given that this “Davos in the Desert” summit is the brainchild of MbS, this official and personal snub by the Trump administration could be a sign of future sanctions… or it could be an effort to get through this crisis with the issuance of a wrist slap. A lot will depend on how MbS reacts. Judging by his reaction to a mean tweet by the Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister earlier this year, it would not surprise me if MbS goes ballistic over the collapse of his summit. 

***********************

Last summer, a standoff between Saudi Arabia and Canada gave us a window into how Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman deals with critics — but most of the world looked away. It started with two tweets. On Aug. 2, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland wrote on Twitter that she was alarmed by the detention of Samar Badawi, a Saudi human rights activist whose brother, Raif Badawi, was arrested in 2012. Raif Badawi’s family lives in Canada. The next day, Global Affairs Canada weighed in, urging Saudi authorities to release civil and women’s rights activists.

Saudi Arabia was not having it. In a blustery Aug. 6 tweetstorm, the country’s Foreign Ministry announced that it was recalling its ambassador to Canada and gave the Canadian ambassador to Saudi Arabia 24 hours to leave. The state airline said it would stop flying to Toronto. Saudi scholarship students were told to pack their bags. Trade and investment were frozen.

Pulling ambassadors and threatening to suspend investment was a “massive overreaction” and offered an important lesson, said Thomas Juneau, assistant professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa. “The lesson was that MBS is reckless and completely overreacts to threats,” he added, using the crown prince’s nickname.  (Washington Post)

***********************

Trump and Pompeo are now pushing for more time for the Saudis to investigate the disappearance of Khashoggi, essentially stalling for time. I doubt Pompeo’s recent trip to Riyadh and Ankara was a search for the truth. It was a desperate effort to coordinate a way out of this mess and preserve the existing Saudi-US relationship. I’d like to know what Pompeo promised Erdogan in an effort to make this all go away. Was it enough? I doubt it. This situation is absolute gold for Erdogan’s dreams of a renewed Ottoman Empire.

How about MbS? Did Pompeo convince him to meekly accept whatever slap on the wrist is on the way? I doubt that as well. The Trump administration pretty much destroyed what was left of “Davos in the Desert.” If I had my family stationed in the Kingdom, I’d get them out right now and have my go bag within arm’s reach at all times. Without any degree of hyperbole, I predict MbS is about to get medieval on someone’s ass… someone beyond an aging expatriate reporter. The chessboard of the Middle East may be about to change dramatically. The result will be a lot of crying in Tel Aviv and Washington and a lot of smiling in Ankara and Tehran. And maybe an end to the needless dying and suffering in Yemen.

TTG   

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/10/17/saudi-arabias-spat-with-canada-was-lesson-trump-ignored-it/

The killers are associated with MBS

 

"On October 16^th, unnamed Turkish officials reportedly provided the Washington Post with scans of passports supposedly carried by seven men who were part of the 15-person team suspected in the disappearance and likely killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The passports add to the public information provided by Turkish officials as it seeks to fill out gaps in the narrative of what purported after Khashoggi entered the Saudi consulate on October 2^nd. The Washington Post published the passports, but obscured the names and faces of the suspects, because it reportedly had no time to verify the people’s identities.

Turkey maintains that Jamal had been killed and dismembered within the Saudi Arabian consulate. It also claims that a 15-man team dispatched from Saudi Arabia played a major role in the killing. One man from the group is the head of the medical forensics department in the Saudi ministry of interior.

Turkish officials also reportedly confirmed that the 15 names reported in the Daily Sabah are the actual names of the suspects."  SF

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Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy.  There is no constitution.  There is no legislature.  Instead, there is "consultation."  There are no laws that are not royal whims or Wahhabi Hanbali Sharia.  Ah, no, my bad!  There is also 12er Sharia in the Eastern Province for the Shia second class subjects (not citizens) who live there.

Turkey clearly is intent on "outing"Saudi Arabia as the butchers who killed Khashoggi and cut up his body in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, thus preparing it for re-export to The Kingdom.

Why are the Turks doing this?  IMO, the Erdogan government wants to establish itself as the leading power in the world Islamic community, the 'Umma.  the Ottoman Sultan Caliph was effectively that in Sunni communities and Erdo seeks to "restore" Ottoman times. 

Donald Trump has one hell of a problem, largely of his own and Jared's creation, but, to be fair, also the product of 70 years of IMO misguided US insistence that the Saudis were a normal, post Treaty of Westphalia country that thought of the US as an ally rather that an alien entity to be manipulated and deceived whenever possible.

The Turks evidently really have "the goods" on MBS who is effectiely both head of state and head of government in SA.  IMO they will drive the evidence home with the world media seeking to force an acknowledgement of their position in the world by Trump.  pl

https://southfront.org/suspected-assasinators-of-khashoggi-appears-to-be-from-close-circle-of-saudi-crown-prince/

"Who needs Saudi Arabia?" Washpost editorial

 

"As for arms sales, someone needs to brief Mr. Trump on the actual results of the promises made to him when he visited Riyadh last year. As Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution sums it up, “The Saudis have not concluded a single major arms deal with Washington on Trump’s watch.” Moreover, an end to supplies of U.S. spare parts and technical support, something Russia cannot provide, would quickly ground the Saudi air force. That would have the welcome effect of ending a bloody bombing campaign in Yemen that a U.N. investigation concluded was probably responsible for war crimes."  Washpost

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Once again, I am not a great fan of Bezos or his blog, but two days in a row they have printed something I can agree with.  Something has changed for him.

It has become a meme in the blather that runs shrill and shallow in the US media, that Saudi Arabia is a faithful, and indispensable ally of the US in the ME.  Bezos disputes this and so do I. 

A few points:

Yes, they chop heads off after Friday prayers outside the local mosque.  They also do hands and feet.  They stone to death women found guilty of adultery.  They sew them in bags before the men present throw handy five pound rocks at them.  The government is deeply approving of this.  Sound familiar?  Yes, it should. The jihadis whom the Saudis sponsor in Syria do the same things.  The Sunni jihadis  are nearly defeated in Syria and it has become clear that the Saudi government has been evacuating their leaders, probably with US connivance, so that they can pursue greater visions of jihad elsewhere.

The importance of Saudi Arabia in the world oil market is IMO now much exaggerated.  They can undoubtedly do some damage by manipulating the short term contract (spot) market but this is something they would pay for heavily.  The Kingdom is cash strapped.  It was not for nothing that MBS turned the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh into a prison for the wealthy including many of his own kin in order to squeeze and in some cases torture them into handing over a lot of their cash to the government.  Depressed petro sales at artificial prices will only further reduce revenue to the government.

The notion that Saudi intelligence contributes much to the GWOT is a joke.  Saudi intelligence competence is something that exists only in pitchmen's claims voiced by TV touts.  In fact, they get almost everything they have from the US and are like greedy baby birds always looking to be fed.  They cannot organize a trip to the gold plated toilet.  It took 15 of them to ambush Khashoggi, well, OK, 14 of them and a doctor to carry the electric bone-saw.

We need to sell them more equipment that they cannot use?  It does not appear to me that any of the contracts that they promised to DJT has been signed.  Their technique is simple.  Keep the hope of profit for the US alive as leverage.

Lastly, the chimera of a great Arab alliance (a la NATO) is delusory.  The Saudis lack both the organizational ability for such a thing and significant military power. They possess one of the world's largest static displays of military equipment.  They have neither the manpower nor the aptitude to use such equipment effectively.  As I have written previously, the Gulf Arabs have long had such an alliance.  It is the GCC and it has never amounted to anything except a venue for the Arab delight in meetings and blather. 

The basis for the desire for such an alliance is the Israeli strategic objective of isolating Iran and its allies; Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas with an eventual hope of destroying the Iranian theocracy.  Israel is frightened of a possible salvo of many thousands of missiles and rockets into Israel from Lebanon as well as an eventual successful creation of a missile deliverable nuclear weapon by the Iranians.  These are real and credible threats for Israel, but not for FUKUS.  Israel has only two really valuable counter-value targets; Haifa and Tel Aviv.  A hit on one or both with a nuclear weapon would be the end of Israel.  The Israelis know that.

Adroit information operations carried out over generations by the Israeli government and its supporters have created in the collective US mind an image of Iran as a disguised 3rd Reich.  This was well done.  The same operation was run against Iraq with magnificent results from the POV of Israel

Saudi Arabia is a worthless ally.  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/who-needs-saudi-arabia/2018/10/15/3ebe473c-d0a1-11e8-8c22-fa2ef74bd6d6_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a339b03b5abf

Our enduring presence” - TTG

Presidential candidate Trump promised to stay out of foreign wars. In April, the US president said the forces would leave Syria soon with the decision taken “very quickly” on how long they will remain there. “We’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now,” he stated. On Sept.24, US National Security Adviser (NSA) John Bolton said the US would remain in Syria “until Iran leaves”. “We’re not going to leave as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that includes Iranian proxies and militias,” the NSA formulated the US position. According to Military Times, his statement was “signaling a fundamental shift from the current counter-terrorism operations to a mission focused more on geopolitical maneuvering and proxy warfare.”The source believes the White House has revealed a massive mission creep. It cited James Phillips, senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Heritage Foundation, who said. “I would prefer to keep US troops there indefinitely, because they also serve a purpose in blocking Iran’s freedom of movement and access to lines of communication that would connect western Iraq with Lebanon.”

Earlier last month, the secretary of state’s Special Representative for Syria engagement James Jeffrey said that the US military could pursue an enduring presence in part to complicate Iranian activities in the country. According to him, the forces will remain beyond “the end of the year”.

Looks like they will stay much longer. Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Ambassador James Jeffrey, openly intervened into Syria’s internal affairs by threatening it with sanctions the US would impose if it Syria did not align its domestic laws with Washington’s instructions. According to him, the US would work with countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East to impose tough international sanctions in circumvention of the UN Security Council if Syria’s government failed to cooperate on rewriting the country’s constitution as a prelude to elections. “We will make it our business to make life as miserable as possible for that flopping cadaver of a regime and let the Russians and Iranians, who made this mess, get out of it,” he warned.

It has been recently reported that the United States has set up a new military base near the Iraqi town of Al-Qa’im in Anbar province on the Iraqi-Syrian border. It is located near the strategic border crossing that links to the Syrian town of Abu Kamal. The US air defense and electronic radar systems in Kobani, the Aleppo governorate in northern Syria, and on the territory of the al-Shaddadi base in the Hasakah province. A no-fly zone could be established in northern Syria stretching from Manbij to Deir ez-Zor. The US will stay to prevent Iran from gaining access to the Mediterranean Sea. (by Arkady Savitsky in Strategic Culture)

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Yesterday morning Colonel Lang emailed me about an apparent US policy change for the worse in Syria. At his request, I planned on doing two pieces on the subject, the one I just posted on the situation at Tanf and a second one about the situation east of the Euphrates. However, this morning I found this piece in “Strategic Culture” by Arkady Savitsky that did a far better job at addressing this subject than I would have done. Please read Arkady’s entire article.

I will add two additional points. First, Erdogan has announced that his forces are preparing to secure the YPG-held territories in the al Raqqa, al Hasaka and Deir Ezzor governorates. How does that square with the US-planned enduring presence in those areas? Are we gearing up for a US-Turkey war for eastern Syria? My second point is that the Rojava Kurds are about to receive a right royal screwing. They pulled out of the talks with Damascus, probably under pressure of the US. That was a supremely boneheaded move by the Kurds. All they have to do is look at the fate of those who chose to take part in the reconciliation process. Former jihadis are being welcomed back to the fold. The Kurds would do at least that well if they stayed the course with the Damascus talks. Now they stand to be kicked in the teeth by the Turks and stabbed in the back by the US. Such promise. Such waste.Their choices exasperate me.

TTG

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/10/02/us-military-in-syria-ready-for-long-endurance-mission.html

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-aims-to-control-ypg-held-territories-east-of-euphrates/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-backed-political-party-confirms-negotiations-with-syrian-govt-halted/

https://southfront.org/syria-foreign-minister-accuses-u-s-of-sabotaging-talks-with-kurds/

Today’s Putin-Erdogan meeting in Sochi - TTG

Putin and Erdogan are meeting in Sochi today to discuss a solution to the situation in Idlib. I don’t think an official statement has been released yet, but I did find a couple of articles in Al Masdar News discussing possible outcomes. The official joint statements should come out shortly. We’ll see whether these prognostications bear out.

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The terrorists in the Syrian Idlib province are likely to be moved to the Jisr al-Shughur in order to reduce casualties among the civilians, representative of Astana opposition platform Mahmoud Afandi told Sputnik Monday. “Most likely, all terrorists will be moved to one area – Jisr al-Shughur. This place already now has almost no civilians,” Afandi said. The opposition member noted that the main issue would be how to remove terrorists from the city of Idlib.

…

The opposition representative also noted that Ankara was trying to make moderate opposition fight against terrorists in the region. “Erdogan has the intention of reconciliation. Already now Turkey is actively influencing armed groups on the ground in Idlib to make them reconcile and agree to fight against Nusra terrorists with the government, having Russia as the guarantor of their survival,” Afandi said.

He expressed hope that the situation in the province would be the same as it was in Daraa. “Russian military police would monitor Idlib and guarantee that the government does not attack the military groups who decided to surrender, while these military groups take the side of the fight against terrorism. The situation will be similar to that of Daraa,” Afandi added.

The Idlib de-escalation zone in Syria is under the responsibility of Turkey as a guarantor state, and Russia expects Ankara to facilitate the difficult process of separating moderate opposition groups from terrorists in the area, Russian special presidential envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentyev announced last week in Geneva after the guarantors’ meeting.

“Armed opposition groups in Idlib have only one condition – to prevent any Iranian presence in Idlib. This condition will be voiced by Erdogan to Putin,” Afandi said in the wake of the meeting between Russian and Turkish presidents in Sochi. Last week, Lavrentyev said that terrorists’ surrender would be the best option for solving the situation in the Idlib province, in order to prevent casualties among civilians. (Al Masdar News)

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If I was a jihadi in Idlib, I would not willingly leave that area for the potential killing fields of Jisr al-Shughur. I would have to be forced out or bribed out. And that bribe better be a lot more than 72 virgins and a promise that the Iranians will stay out of Idlib. That must be some heavy palavering going on in Sochi.

In other news, the Russian Reconciliation Center has convinced the Quraytayn Martyrs Brigade to leave the Al Tanf region for the Turkish held area north of Aleppo. They will take their families from the Rukban Refugee Camp along with their remaining vehicles and weapons. This will leave only one jihadi group remaining in the US controlled Al Tanf region.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/idlib-jihadists-likely-to-be-moved-to-jisr-al-shughour-to-avoid-civilian-casualties-opp-source/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-to-cooperate-with-russia-on-eliminating-terrorists-in-idlib-erdogan/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-backed-group-agrees-to-leave-tanf-region-for-northern-aleppo/

Russian MOD says the chlorine has been delivered to "Bsanqul."

 

"Idlib militants have delivered canisters with Chlorine to the village of Bsanqul, where they are preparing to stage a chemical attack, the Russian Defense Ministry says.

On September 15, a spokesman of the Russian Center for Reconciliation in Syria, Lieutenant General Vladimir Savchenko said that the chlorine-filled canisters were delivered by members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian bracnh of al-Qaeda).

Lieutenant General Savchenko said that the recent developments showed that militants are preparing a false flag attack, which will be used to accuse the Syrian government of using chemical weapons in Idlib.

This warning followed a September 12 statement by the Russian Defense Ministry in which it said that the White Helmets group has shot videos intended to be employed to accuse the Syrian government of accusing the Damascus government of the chemical weapons usage.

Earlier, the Russia military said toxic chemicals had been delivered to the militant-held part of Idlib province adding that the White Helmets had carried out the delivery."

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Well, pilgrims, BOHICA.  The WHPC (White Helmets Production Company), funded by USAID and masterminded by the spiritual descendants of Reilly, Ace of Spies, in Whitehall have their "stuff' (chlorine)  in one pile now at Bsanqul on Route 4 and are evidently waiting for a good moment to release their already produced videos in the world wide web.  They (the neocons - Pompeo, Bolton, Haley, etc.) will then show Trump the TV.  Ivanka will weep and moan about "the children!  the children!"  Somehow she does not seem to be equally stricken by the sight of the children of Gaza shot by Israeli Army snipers.

Trump will then order some sort of attack, some sort of attack.  pl 

https://southfront.org/idlib-militants-deliver-chlorine-canisters-to-bsanqul-village-prepare-to-stage-chemical-attack-russian-military/

FUKUS & Turkey are now al-qa'ida's allies. (editorial)

FUKUS equals France, the UK and the US.  It appears that the policy of this tri-partite re-birth of the Entente Cordiale has changed with regard to Syria since the middle of August.  Before that change FUKUS seemed to have acknowledged and conceded the inevitability of an R+6 offensive that would re-capture all of Idlib Province in NW Syria.  That seems changed.

The province is now occupied and dominated by the jihadi fighters of hayat tahrir al-sham (HTS).  This is the cover name of al-qa'ida in Syria.  You may probably remember them as the folks who attacked the US on 9/11.  If you do,That would be a correct memory.  These jihadis are quite different from the ISIS (daesh) fighters of the Islamic State.  The US, Syria, Iraq, France and the UK have successfully fought ISIS all over Syria and Iraq when FUKUS was not busy Accidental-Bombing (neologism) the Syrian Army.

FUKUS and the Lord of the White House  (LOTWH) have traditionally made a clear distinction between ISIS and the other jihadi groups like HTS.  Over the years of the Syrian Civil War FUKUS has insisted, and still does, that HTS is somehow a "freedom fighter" group along with the rag-tag Free Syrian Army unicorns.  That was certainly the view of the late Saint John of Arizona.  In the aftermath of his passing and the subsequent media hysteria, the LOTWH seems to have accepted the wisdom of St. John in perceiving the "true" nature of HTS.

In  other words the US seems now to be fully "on board" as the protector of HTS's redoubt in Idlib Province.  The French, still deep in the embrace of Macronisme and the Brits with their desire to continue to be "players" are also "on board"

In pursuit of these newly adopted neocon policy ambitions for al-qa'ida in Syria, Ambassadors Jeffrey and Haley have threatened Syria, Iran and Russia with hellfire and damnation if they dare to try to Make Syria Whole Again  (MSWA - need a vowel in there somehow) by launching the offensive so fully prepared at this date.

Meanwhile the Sultan Tayyip and his crew at the summit of Turkworld are doing their best to outplay everyone in an effort to effectively annex as much of NW Syria as possible.  To that end Tayyip has warned the Syrians against trying to re-capture these lands of the Fertile Crescent, hoping perhaps to see Turkish taught there as the mandatory medium of communication in the manner of German in Alsace-Lorraine from 1871-1918.  Turkey is reinforcing its "Observation Posts" all around the perimeter of Idlib Province whilst the White Helmets Film Troupe (WHFT) have a number of possible new Oscar winner "documentaries" in production at their FUKUS sponsored jisr al-shughur facility.

My Fearless Forecast - In the end, the Russians and Syrians will say to hell with this and launch the offensive. pl

"A country where an immigrant Sikh girl can become a neocon ambassador" Anon.

 

"In her statement during the UN Security Council briefing, Haley said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and its “enablers,” Russia and Iran have a playbook for the war in Syria. First, they surround a civilian area. Next, they make the “preposterous claim that everyone in the area is a terrorist,” thus making all civilians targets. That is followed by a “starve and surrender” campaign, during which Syrian security forces keep attacking until the people no longer have food, clean water, or shelter. “It’s a playbook of death. The Assad regime has spent the last seven years refining it with Russia and Iran’s help.”

According to her it has happened many times before, in July 2018 it happened in Dara’a and the southwest of Syria, where Syrian forces “trapped and besieged civilians.” In February 2018, it was Ghouta. In 2017 it was Aleppo, and prior to that places like Madaya and Hama.

According to her, Assad’s government has left the country in ruins. “The atrocities committed by Assad will be a permanent stain on history and a black mark for this Council – which was blocked over and over by Russia from taking action to help,” Nikki Haley said."  SF

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Well, strictly speaking, her parents were immigrants, not she.  She was born in Bamberg, South Carolina, a little town in the Piedmont that is majority Black.  Her parents were professional people at Amritsar in the Punjab.  Haley is the surname of her husband.  Nikki is a nickname by which she has long been known.  As governor, she was in favor of flying the Confederate flag on the Statehouse grounds before the Charleston massacre of Black Christians at a Bible study session.  They were killed by an unstable white teen aged misfit whom they had invited to join their worship.  After that Nikki discovered that the Confederate flag was a bad and disruptive symbol.  It was a popular position across the country and Nikki became an instant "hit," the flavor of the month so to speak.

I suppose that she was supposed to be an interesting and decorative figure as UN ambassador.  She is quite pretty and the South Carolina accent adds to the effect.

The positions she has taken at the UN with regard to the ME are similar to those expressed by her boss, President Trump.  They are largely reflections of images projected by the popular and mass media operating as Zionist propaganda machines.  I don't believe that the State Department's INR analytic bureau believes the crapola that she spouts with such hysteric fervor.  I don't believe that my former friend David Satterfield believes the crapola.  So, where does she get ideas like the ones quoted above?  IMO she is trying to out-Trump Trump.  DJT is a remarkably ignorant man concerning the geo-politics of just about everything in the ME.  He appears to have once seen the film, "Exodus" and to have decided on the basis of Paul Newman's performance as Begin that the situation was and is quite simple - Israel good!  Everyone else bad!  Nikki's depth of  knowledge appears to be just about the same.

She also appears to me to be in receipt of a stream of opinion from various Zionist and anti-Muslim groups probably related to the anti-Muslim ravings of Maronite and other Christian ME extremists.

These groups cannot seem to understand that alliances shift as does policy.  They don't seem to understand that Israel's policy in Syria is no longer regime change.  They never seem to have understood that the Syrian government is the protector of the religious minorities against Sunni jihadi fanatics.

They don't seem to understand that the Syrian government has no choice but to recover Idlib Province, a piece of Syria's heartland.  pl

https://southfront.org/us-ambassador-to-un-goes-wild-claims-russia-syria-iran-seek-to-kill-civilians-destroy-schools-and-hospitals-in-idlib/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley

The political prep for Idlib is completed.

Turkey has abandoned support for HTS (al-Qa'ida in Syria).  Iran states its complete support for a Syrian government offensive to recover the province.  Russia has stated that Syria has the right to expel "terrorists" from Idlib Province.  The "terrorists" will be the backbone of resistance to government authority.  The Russian Navy is massed in the Mediterranean near Syria.  SAA forces are massed  and in position for the offensive.

It would seem that Trump will soon have decisions to make about US actions in Syria.  pl  

https://southfront.org/turkey-finally-designates-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-as-terrorist-group/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/clear-terrorists-from-idlib-says-irans-zarif-in-damascus-video/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-govt-has-every-right-to-liquidate-terrorists-in-idlib-lavrov/

Turkey accepts Russian views on Syria

 

"Turkey is ready to work together with Russia in Syria’s Idlib province to eradicate militants in the region, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said at a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Friday.

According to Cavusoglu, it is also important to make sure that the fight against militants does not threaten the civilians in the region. 

Lavrov noted that Moscow and Ankara “are interested in establishing conditions for Syrian citizens’ secure and decent return to their motherland.”

Speaking about the establishment of the Syrian constitutional committee, the Russian diplomat said reports about a disagreement between Russia and Turkey on the issue are false."  AMN and RUPTLY

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Pilgrims, this is great news!  This means that the Sultan of all the Turks has decided to pull his horns in (Texas speak).  The Russians and the SAA will kill off the jihadis in Idlib and faced with that the FSA unicorns will surrender.  IMO this is happening with the concurrence of Trump whether Mattis and Votel like it or not,  If the SDF participate in the Idlib offensive the path will be open to some   form of confederation with Damascus, even if it is not called that.  pl

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-ready-to-help-moscow-eliminate-idlib-militants-fm/

A comment on the Turkey/Idlib situation by FB

"This is what I thought when I heard Bonkers Bolton warning about chem weapons in Idlib...the Idlib terrorists are Turkey's wards, but I had assumed after the smooth running of the southern liberation, where Israel was a stakeholder that the Syria endgame had been quietly ironed out between Trump and Putin...maybe not...?

I think the so-called 'chemical attacks' are a ruse of the deep state...ie the CIA, MI6 et al, through their proxies on the ground the white helmets...the corrupt media jump on these false flags and whip up a HUGE furor...of course many among the media scumbags are deep state assets, as has long been public knowledge, since at least the Church Hearings...

So even if Trump and Putin have come to a 'secret' agreement on Syria...it is likely that the deep state is not on board...this means that the same deep state/neocon machinery could well join up with Erdog on blowing up some crisis...that's really the only hand they have left to play, since it seems obvious that the SAA are going to clean up...

Otoh, Erdog needs to be mindful of crossing Putin...he's burning bridges with Trump, the EU and the West in general...Turkey was brought to its knees by Russian sanction.s after the Sukhoi downing in 2015 and some of those measures are still in place...Putin wisely holding those in his pocket until the Turks leave Syria...

I have to think that overall the Idlib liberation is inevitable...but you may be right that we may see some more fireworks if the chemical ruse is pulled again by the white helmets...Even the POTUS has no chance to resist the huge media brouhaha that is whipped up...really shows the power of the deep state and media working together like a smooth running machine... " FB

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An excellent comment and well worth making into a post.  My only quibble would be that I think it is USAID (an arm of the State Department) that is working with UK propaganda organs to maintain the WH.  IMO Trump is not fully in control of this situation and Bonkers Bolton cannot be much help.  Bolton ought to travel with Mike Huckabee in the ME.  Huckabee believes that the Old Testament is history and literally true and written by God Almighty.  They would make splendid traveling companions.  pl

Will Turkey leave NATO with Brunson as excuse?

 

"On August 20^th, the price of the Turkish Lira fell after US President Donald Trump declared that there would be “no concessions” with Turkey over the detained US Pastor.

In an interview with Reuters on August 20^th, Donald Trump rejected agreeing to any demands from Turkey to gain the release of Andrew Brunson. He also said that he wasn’t concerned that his tough stance could end up hurting European and emerging market economies.

Trump also claimed that he thought he and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a deal after he helped persuade Israel to release a detained Turkish citizen. He thought that Erdogan would reciprocate his actions and release Andrew Brunson, who denies all allegations that he was involved in the failed coup attempt of 2016.

“I think it’s very sad what Turkey is doing. I think they’re making a terrible mistake. There will be no concessions,” Donald Trump said.

Turkey’s demands include the US to hand over Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish cleric in the United States suspected in the coup plot against Erdogan, however that request has been refused."  SF

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This seems to me to be a "Mexican Standoff."

Turkish/Erdogan pride is heavily involved as well as what IMO is his deeply held anti-Christian/anti-Western bias.

At the same time the US is denying Turkey previously agreed on sales of F-35 even though most of the aircraft have been delivered.  This denial is in retaliation for the deal the Turks have made for the Russian built S-400 air defense system.   The Russian system is operationally incompatible with NATO systems and is, of course, incompatible with the anti-Russian purpose of NATO as it is seen by  American politicians and generals who share a view of  Russia as a thinly disguised continuation of the Soviet Union and a threat needed to justify and maintain the force structure they want in their imagined role as world gendarme.

Brunson is the pastor of one of the several small Protestant churches in Izmir City.  These churches serve the expatriate business and consular communities there and have only a few hundred congregants.  When I lived in Izmir I produced amateur theatricals in the parish hall of the Anglican Church.  These churches were even then often vandalized by Turks who saw them as both infidel and alien.

Trump is IMO unlikely to back away from this confrontation which he sees as part of the process of imposing his will on just about everyone.  At the same time the Turks are clearly intent on expanding their territory at the expense of Syria even though the Russians have cautioned them that Russia will stand by its Syrian ally.

A major diplomatic and military clash among these various interests seems inevitable.  pl

 https://southfront.org/trump-there-would-be-no-concessions-with-turkey/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_standoff

https://www.businessinsider.com/r-russia-to-start-delivering-s-400-defense-system-to-turkey-in-2019-ifax-2018-8

Janissaries will march across northern Syria and Iraq?

 

 "The Turkish military will expand the area of its operations in northern Syria, up to the  Iraqi border, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on August 18.

“The operations of the Turkish army in Jarabulus, Al Bab and Afrin will be carried out in other Syrian regions, up to the Iraqi border. They will also be carried out in [Iraq’s] Sinjar and Makhmur. We will eliminate the terrorist threat coming from the territory of Syria and Iraq. We will not let terrorists to control zones near our southern borders,” the president said at a congress of the Justice and Development Party.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) along with Turkish-backed militant groups are already in control of a large chunk of northern Syria, including the cities of Al-Bab and Afrin. These areas were seized by Ankara under a pretext of combating ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) – a Kurdish rebel group, which is involved in a long-term standoff against the Turkish governemnt.

On the same time, units of the TAF entered some areas in the province of Idlib in northwestern Syria.

However, the Erdogan government is not going to stop on this. Currently, it’s working to force the US to drop support to the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The core of the SDF is the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Ankara describes the YPG as an affilate of the PKK."  SF

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 Say what?

The US has positioned a small number of troops (advisers, etc.) in the NE and has made noises recently to the effect that the US and the SDF will defend the area that they hold west of the Euphrates River.  Convoys of materiel for the SDF forces have been arriving from Iraq and CENTCOM shows no sign of withdrawing from anywhere in the portion of northern Syria currently held by CENTCOM/SDF. 

At the same time the Turkish Army is deep in northern Iraq and is constructing what look like long term facilities.  Erdogan plans to occupy all of northern Iraq?

pl 

https://southfront.org/erdogan-turkish-military-will-expand-area-of-its-operations-in-syria/

Idlib offensive begins.

 

"The known forces participating in the upcoming Idlib offensive are as followed:

• Syrian Arab Army
  • 1st Division
  • 3rd Armored Division
    • Qalamoun Shield Forces
  • 4th Mechanized Division
    • 39th Brigade
    • 41st Brigade
    • 42nd Brigade (Ghiath Forces)
    • 555th Brigade
  • 7th Armored Division
  • 9th Division
    • Shock Troops
  • 10th Division
  • 11th Tank Division
    • 47th Brigade
    • 60th Brigade
    • 87th Brigade
  • 15th Special Forces Division
  • 18th Tank Division
    • 67th Brigade
  • Republican Guard
    • 105th Brigade
    • 106th Brigade
  • Tiger Forces
• National Defense Forces (NDF)
• Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP)
  • Mhardeh and Suqaylabiyah divisions
• Liwaa Al-Quds
• Al-Ba’ath Battalions

Please note: List will be expanded throughout the next few weeks as more groups join the battle"  SF

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25,000 men initially, masses of armored vehicles, lots of artillery like the battery firing in the picture, plenty of Syrian and Russian air support.

The day of reckoning for the jihadis, the FSA unicorns and the collaborators therewith who have holed up in Idlib Province has arrived.

The wretched neo-Ottoman at the head of the Turkish government has promised the Idlibians that they will be protected from the SAA.  IMO this is just another example of his essential hostility to the world that exists outside his addled brain.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/idlib-offensive-to-have-largest-build-up-of-syrian-army-troops-full-list-of-troops/

https://southfront.org/syrian-armys-artillery-shell-militant-positions-in-southern-idlib/

https://southfront.org/turkey-promised-local-pro-militant-figures-in-idlib-to-prevent-syrian-army-advance-report/ 

More hostages for Erdogan?

 

"A group of attorneys loyal to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have initiated legal action against US officers attached to the strategic Incirlik Air Base in Turkey for alleged ties with terrorists, according to a new report.

The Turkish attorneys want to temporarily halt all operations at the Incirlik base to execute a search warrant, Stars and Stripes reported Wednesday. The attorneys involved in the case are part of the Association for Social Justice and Aid, which comprises individuals who back Erdogan, the report said. 

The criminal complaint says that scores of high-ranking US officers are linked to Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic cleric living in the US who Erdogan says was instrumental in the 2016 attempted coup against his government.

The attorneys seek the detention of US Cols. John Waler, Michael Manion, David Eaglen and David Trucksa; Lt. Cols.Tim Cook and Mack Coker; and Sgts. Thomas Cooper and Vegas Clark, according to Stars and Stripes. General Joseph Votel, head of US Central Command, is also named in the complaint."  AMN

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 This should be taken seriously.  Erdogan is just mad enough to have his catspaws seize a number of US military personnel at the base in order to escalate the process that in his primitive mind will lead to US acceptance of his demands concerning Gulen and a Turkish banker convicted of criminal activity who is now in a US prison.  Erdogan wants to establish the notion that he and the US have equal weight in the world.  This is a typical Middle Eastern and North African fantasy.  It is the delusion that imagines that the Donald and Melania wake every morning to inquire immediately as to what is happening in Ankara today. 

It is past time to get all non-diplomatic official Americans out of Turkey and warn non-officials that if they go there they are risking detention as prisoners of the sultan. pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-lawyers-sue-us-soldiers-at-incirlik-airbase-for-terrorist-ties/

Brunson alive or Raisuli dead! Really?

 

"Ankara is going to respnose to symmetrically to US sanctions imposed on Turkey’s Justice Minister Abdulhamit Gul and Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu.

On August 4, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country will freeze assets of the US “justice and interior” secretaries in Turkey.

“I am instructing my friends today. We will freeze assets, if there are any, of the U.S. justice and interior secretaries in Turkey,” the president said speaking at ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party’s Women Branch congress in Ankara.

He emphasized that the Turkish nation will not step back because of “threatening rhetoric and silly decisions” of sanctions.

“Especially the latest step by America regarding pastor Brunson issue in Izmir, is an ill-fitted step for a strategic partner,” Erdigan said.

An August 1 decision by the US to impose sanctions on two Turkish top officials were justified by Ankara’s refusal to release US Pastor Andrew Craig Brunson, who faces terrorism charges in Turkey. This decision was the latest in a series of diplomatic and political incidents between the sides.

The US-Turkish relations are slowly deteriorating."SF

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 Slowly deteriorating?

Ion Perdicaris was a Greek immigrant to America resident in Tangier who was kidnapped in 1904 by one Moulai Raisuli one of the claimants to the sultanate of Morocco.  When informed of this President T. Roosevelt  sent the South Atlantic Fleet of the US Navy toward Morocco with a few hundred hard bitten US Marine veterans of various banana war expeditions on board.  Roosevelt's intention was clear.  "Perdicaris alive or Raisuli Dead?" was the meme of the day in the yellow press.   Hysteria ran high then as now in the "Speak softly and carry a big stick" segment of the population.  TR's enthusiasm abated when John Hay, then SECSTATE informed him that Perdicaris had renounced his US citizenship some time earlier to avoid taxation.  Nevertheless, Roosevelt supposedly said that so long as the sultan THOUGHT Perdicaris was an American that was enough reason to "go for him."

Perdicaris was eventually released when his relative the Sultan of Morocco decided to negotiate with Raisuli rather than have all this annoyance and fuss from the infidels.

Perdicaris had become a great admirer of Raisuli whilst a captive.

I suppose you could call that the first instance of the "Marrakesh Syndrome."

John Milius (one of my favorite film makers) turned this non-crisis into a fun film in 1975.  It was called "The Wind and the Lion."  It had little to do with the Perdicaris Incident but it was gorgeous, especially just as the debacle in VN was ending.  In the film the aged former American Perdicaris is played by Candace Bergen and Raisuli by Sean Connery who has a great Scottish Moroccan accent.  Candace?  Well, she had a lot of things going for her.  In the film the marines do land in Morocco, storm the "bashaw's" (governor's) palace in Tangier and end up fighting to save Raisuli who is revealed as one of "the good guys."  I have an unfair suspicion that DJT has seen this movie.

 Now we have Sultan Tayyip Erdogan in the role of Raisuli.  He is afflicted with the traditional weakness evident in many potentates of the past.  He believes that what Churchill called "The Great Republic."  is a trivial and weak willed enemy. 

Amusingly, Tayyip says he will sanction the US Attorney General and the Secretary of the Interior.  Well, pilgrims,  Jeff Sessions would like nothing better than to be thought to be a protector of a minister of the Gospel and the US Secretary of the Interior is not the police minister as in Turkey.  No.  He is the person who runs the National Park Service, the Bureau of Indian Affairs, the Bureau of Land Management, etc.

And Americans are accused of not understanding foreign countries?   Oh well!

Will the US go to war with Turkey over Brunson?  We might.  pl 

https://southfront.org/turkey-to-impose-sanctions-on-us-justice-and-interior-secretaries-erdogan/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ion_Perdicaris

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wind_and_the_Lion

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secretary_of_the_Interior

Syria will fight Turkey if they must ...

"Syria’s government has a legitimate right to get back all the territories seized by Turkey, including Idlib, Syria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Bashar al-Jaafari said on Tuesday.

“There can be no compromises on that matter. The period of functioning of de-escalation zones has its timeframes. They cannot be extended without the Syrian government’s consent. It is a legitimate right of the Syrian people to get back all the territories seized by Turkey,” al-Jaafari, who leads the Syrian government delegation to the international meeting on Syria in Russia’s Sochi, stressed."  AMN

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IMO the fighting now underway in the northern end of Latakia Governorate marks the opening phase of the R+6 general offensive to re-capture Idlib Province from the jihadis and the Turks.  This particular effort is intended to secure the left flank of what will be a drive to capture jisr al-shugur as a supporting attack in the general offensive.   Stay tuned.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-diplomat-says-govt-has-legitimate-right-to-retake-idlib/

Erdogan wants to trade the US a Christian missionary for Gulen?

 

 "It would be an extraordinary step to impose sanctions on a NATO ally, and the Turkish government responded defiantly.

“Noone dictates Turkey,” Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, wrote in a tweet. “We will never tolerate threats from anybody. Rule of law is for everyone; no exception.”

The widening conflict highlighted how the Trump administration has been torn over Turkey.

Mr. Trump and Mike Pompeo, his secretary of state, have sought a closer rapport with Mr. Erdogan. But the Pentagon wants to preserve a close alliance with a Kurdish militia in northern Syria — one that the Turkish government regards as a terrorist group — to continue fighting the Islamic State.

Last month, a State Department official told Congress that plans by the Turkish government to acquire a Russian missile defense system would damage United States-Turkish relations beyond repair. The Senate temporarily blocked the sale of American weapons to Turkey, including F-35 fighter jets, because of Mr. Brunson’s imprisonment and Turkey’s purchase of the Russian air defense system.

On Thursday, Mr. Erdogan met with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on the sidelines of a summit meeting in South Africa of the so-called BRICS countries of major emerging nations."  nytimes

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 Well, pilgrims, for Islamists like Erdogan and his pals, attempting to convert Muslims to Christianity or any other faith is instigation of apostasy and it is (or should be in their minds) a killing offense. 

Turkey under what is left of the Kemalist secular nationalist constitution is not an Islamic state, not yet.  It is not a crime under Turkish law to try to convert Muslims to Christianity, not yet.  Pastor Brunson did exactly that for 23 years.  IMO you can be sure that he has been a subject dossier in Turkish police and internal security ever since Sultan Tayyip achieved power.

Does the sultan really believe that Brunson was part of the plot against him?  IMO, no, but it is a convenient thing with which to charge him for the purpose of developing leverage against the US since you can't charge him with trying to convert Muslims.

What does Erdogan want?  He wants us to give him the head of Fethullah Gulen, an exile from Erdogan's kingdom, an exile who challenges Erdogan's view of Islam and just about everything else.  Gulen lives in the US.  We have in the past refused to extradite him to Turkey because we know that Erdogan will kill him.

Erdo is trying to play a complex game in which he flirts with Russia, China and the US in the belief that he is cleverer than all these infidels and/or can  simply defy them if necessary.  Remember, Erdogan's body guards came out of the Turkish Embassy in Washington to beat up people in a park who were protesting the sultan's visit.  These men were indicted in an American court and Erdogan defies us over extraditing them to the US.

Erdogan wants US made F-35s.  He also wants Russian S-400 air defense systems, and also desires a big piece of northern Syria and Iraq.  Erdogan is an ambitious man.  pl

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/world/europe/turkey-sanctions-trump.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_G%C3%BClen

Syria Notes - 25 July 2018

1. The SDF/SNC political arm is opening offices with government consent in several Syrian cities, among them Damascus itself.  The goal in this is to negotiate political reconciliation with the government.  If that happens then just about all of Syria east of the Euphrates River will return to government control.  A lot of Syria's oil and gas reserves are out there.  If the previous pattern is followed the armed forces of the SDF would be integrated into the SAA.  This would be very interesting.  The SDF has a lot of volunteer Kurdish women soldiers who are actual and effective fighters.  How the SAA would integrate them would be interesting to watch.  Effectively, such a reconciliation would re-unite the country except for the Turkish occupied and coveted areas in the north, but, as TTG suggests, Turkish ambitions have an uncertain future in north Syria.  Does Trump know about this political move?  I think he must know and that the "fix" is in" on this with Putin.  What do Mattis and CENTCOM think about this? Does it matter?
2. SAA forces in Quneitra and western Deraa provinces are cleaning up the remaining jihadis and other rebels.  Elements of the Tiger Forces national offensive reserve + 9th Armored and 4th Armored Divisions + a lot of NDF militia are advancing south from the Quneitra City ruins (Israel did that in 1974) with their right flank IN the UNDOF DMZ.  The FSA unicorms have surrendered enough equipment to the SAA in the last couple of weeks to equip an additional armored brigade once the Syrian Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (SEME - my neologism) and their Rooshians work it over.  Hey! We Americans under Obama's policy paid for all that.  At last someone will know what to do with it.  The rebel IS affiliates in the black patch in the map are pretty well screwed.  That area is called the Yarmuk Basin (Hud al Yarmuk- hard "H" - "Wow" - hard "D")  It is agricultural land that slopes down through a few villages to the north bank of the Yarmuk River.  Jordan starts on the south bank.  The SAA and friends are going through this area without any problem,  "like s--t through a goose" as Patton would have said.  Amusingly, "Khalid bin al Walid Brigade" is the moniker of the IS jihadis being overrun in the Yarmuk Basin.  He was the Muslim commander at the decisive defeat of the Byzantines at the Battle of the Yarmuk.  Both Bibi and Putin have said that once the Israelis' former IS allies are exterminated then the SAA must back out of the UNDOF DMZ.  I suppose that will happen.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-july-25-2018-israel-shoots-down-syrian-warplane-supporting-anti-isis-operation/

https://southfront.org/militants-in-quneitra-city-nearby-points-start-surrendering-weapons-to-syrian-army-reports/