Happy Friday America! It's been less than 48 hours and already our brave redacted Commander in Chief has, finished with using 25,000 troops he says he can't trust to ethnicly cleanse the Capital of all Americans, sent troops back to Syria. Come on man, we gotta take on the Roooshans, just like we've been telling you for years. For (check's list) Freedom in the Middle East.
Entries categorized "Syria"
22 January 2021
14 November 2020
“What Syria withdrawal? There was never a Syria withdrawal,” Jeffrey said.
" ... even as he praises the president’s support of what he describes as a successful “realpolitik” approach to the region, he acknowledges that his team routinely misled senior leaders about troop levels in Syria.
“We were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there,” Jeffrey said in an interview. The actual number of troops in northeast Syria is “a lot more than” the roughly two hundred troops Trump initially agreed to leave there in 2019. Defense One
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"We?" Who are "We?"
State Department people? Well, certainly some of those were involved.
But ... IMO it would not have been possible to deceive or mislead the WH and specifically the Commander in Chief without the active cooperation of CENTCOM, the JCS and OSD.
If they had not been participating in the lying, it would have been obvious in any number of interactions with President Trump that the president's understanding of troop numbers in Syria was not correct and that he was being deceived by "we." (whoever that was). That revelation evidently did not happen. The NSC staff should have detected the lack of truth in reported numbers. That it did not tells me that at least some of the NSC staff were disloyal to Trump. Obvious? Yes, but that is worth re-stating.
James Jeffrey is quite proud of his achievement in maintaining a "realpolik" stalemate in Syria, one that stymies both Russia and the Syrian government.
IMO opinion he is revealed by his own words as a treacherous back stabber. "Un hombre sin honor." pl
27 September 2020
No wonder Pompey and his friend Jeffries won't give up on Syria! No wonder.
"Western government-funded intelligence cutouts trained Syrian opposition leaders, planted stories in media outlets from BBC to Al Jazeera, and ran a cadre of journalists. A trove of leaked documents exposes the propaganda network."
"Leaked documents show how UK government contractors developed an advanced infrastructure of propaganda to stimulate support in the West for Syria’s political and armed opposition.
Virtually every aspect of the Syrian opposition was cultivated and marketed by Western government-backed public relations firms, from their political narratives to their branding, from what they said to where they said it.
The leaked files reveal how Western intelligence cutouts played the media like a fiddle, carefully crafting English- and Arabic-language media coverage of the war on Syria to churn out a constant stream of pro-opposition coverage.
US and European contractors trained and advised Syrian opposition leaders at all levels, from young media activists to the heads of the parallel government-in-exile. These firms also organized interviews for Syrian opposition leaders on mainstream outlets such as BBC and the UK’s Channel 4.
More than half of the stringers used by Al Jazeera in Syria were trained in a joint US-UK government program called Basma, which produced hundreds of Syrian opposition media activists.
Western government PR firms not only influenced the way the media covered Syria, but as the leaked documents reveal, they produced their own propagandistic pseudo-news for broadcast on major TV networks in the Middle East, including BBC Arabic, Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, and Orient TV.
These UK-funded firms functioned as full-time PR flacks for the extremist-dominated Syrian armed opposition. One contractor, called InCoStrat, said it was in constant contact with a network of more than 1,600 international journalists and “influencers,” and used them to push pro-opposition talking points.
Another Western government contractor, ARK, crafted a strategy to “re-brand” Syria’s Salafi-jihadist armed opposition by “softening its image.” ARK boasted that it provided opposition propaganda that “aired almost every day on” major Arabic-language TV networks."
"The Western contractor ARK was a central force in launching the White Helmets operation.
The leaked documents show ARK ran the Twitter and Facebook pages of Syria Civil Defense, known more commonly as the White Helmets.
ARK took credit for developing “an internationally-focused communications campaign designed to raise global awareness of the (White Helmets) teams and their life saving work.”
ARK also facilitated communications between the White Helmets and The Syria Campaign, a PR firm run out of London and New York that helped popularize the White Helmets in the United States.
It was apparently “following subsequent discussions with ARK and the teams” that The Syria Campaign “selected civil defence to front its campaign to keep Syria in the news,” the firm wrote in a report for the UK Foreign Office." thegreyzone
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Using really basic intelligence analytic tools; Occam's Razor, Walks like a duck, Smileyesque back azimuth's, etc. it has been clear that the UK government has been deeply involved in sponsoring and influencing the Syrian/ jihadi opposition in that miserable country. The wide spread British Old Boys network of aspirants to the tradition of imperial manipulation has been visible just below the surface if you had eyes to look and a brain to think.
A lot of the money for this folly came right out of USAID.
pl
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/09/23/syria-leaks-uk-contractors-opposition-media/
06 September 2020
Haggia Sophia reborn.
" The city of Al-Sqaylabiyeh in western Hama witnessed the foundation of the stone laying ceremony for the symbolic Hagia Sophia Church, which will be a replica of the mother cathedral of Hagia Sophia in Turkey.
The ceremony was held in the presence of Syrian and Russian officials, in addition to religious figures from the people of the region.
It was written on the foundation stone of the symbolic church:
“During the reign of President Bashar Hafez Al-Assad, President of the Syrian Arab Republic, the blessing of the Bishop of Hama and its subordinates Nikolaos Ba’albaki and the blessing of the Russian Federation represented by the commander of the Russian forces operating in the Syrian Arab Republic, General Alexander Yuryevich Chaiko, laying the foundation stone of the Hagia Sophia Church, introduction From Nabel Shafiq Al-Abdullah, on the authority of the martyrs of Sqaylabiyeh, Syria, and its allies, and a tribute to the Great Hagia Sophia.
This step was supported and blessed by the Orthodox Christian religious leaders in both Syria and Russia, and they considered it a step of solidarity with the mother Church of Hagia Sophia, and an assurance that the Turkish President will not be able to obliterate the features of this global impact on the list of UNESCO, which played a central role in Christian history over the course of 1500 years old.”"
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The symbolic nature of this construction of a replica of Haggia Sophia is of interest. The Syrian government is the protector of the Christian and other minorities in the country. Many people from those minorities serve in or alongside the Syrian Army in the fight against the Sunni jihadi monsters.
Russia will help fund the construction and the new church will have the blessing of both the Syrian and Russian Orthodox churches.
I suppose that this development will anger the Israelis, the US Ziocons and such creatures as Pompey and Jeffries. Good!
29 April 2020
OPCW members denounce report on Syria. thegrayzone
"On April 8, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons released a report by its newly formed Investigation and Identification Team, a unit ostensibly established to identify alleged perpetrators of chemical weapons attacks in Syria. The IIT investigation examined three alleged incidents in the Syrian town of Ltamenah in March 2017. It concluded “that there are reasonable grounds to believe” that the Syrian army committed a sarin attack in two of the incidents, and a chlorine attack in the third.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praised the IIT probe, calling it “the latest in a large and growing body of evidence that the Assad regime uses chemical weapons attacks in Syria as part of a deliberate campaign of violence against the Syrian people. The United States shares the OPCW’s conclusions.”
But missing from Pompeo’s remarks and the ensuing U.S. media coverage across the spectrum is the crisis of credibility consuming the OPCW and its senior leadership. The IIT report’s tenuous conclusion “that there are reasonable grounds to believe” the official version of events closely resembles the conclusion of an earlier OPCW report that is now the subject of major controversy and derision. A series of leaks show that OPCW leaders suppressed the findings of inspectors who probed another much more consequential alleged Syrian chemical attack, in the city of Douma in April 2018, which triggered US airstrikes.
The evidence collected in Douma undermined allegations of Syrian government guilt and strongly suggested a staged event by the armed opposition. Leaked internal OPCW emails and documents show that the Douma investigators protested the censorship of their findings, setting off an unfolding cover-up scandal that has called the OPCW’s impartiality into question.
The Grayzone has published a series of leaks from the OPCW’s Douma scandal, and plans to reveal new material that further undermines the official story. The article below reveals how the dissension within the OPCW ranks extends well beyond the Douma investigation.
Here, OPCW insiders offer a withering critique of the IIT report, blasting it as another hyper-politicized piece of bunk. The Grayzone can verify that the authors represent the view of, at minimum, a small group of current and former OPCW officials who took part in its drafting and review. " thegrayzone
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Well, pilgrims, Pompey likes this report. Of course he does! IMO he set up the IIT to produce such a result replete with material that can be used to program Trump for further aggression against the Syrian Government.
As Mr. Jefferson wrote, "I fear for my country when I remember that God is just." He was speaking of Virginia and slavery, but, you get the idea. pl
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/04/28/opcw-insiders-ltamenah-chemical-weapons-report/
24 April 2020
A few thoughts - 24 April 2020
1. IMO the US Navy will be doing a good thing if it persuades Trump to restore Captain Crozier to command of USS Theodore Roosevelt. He did a very foolish thing by appealing to the whole wide world to support his position, but he did have the best interest of the ship's company in mind and as he said, we are not at war in the Pacific. This would also be a humane decision on the part of the navy toward an officer in command, something unusual for them.
2. IMO the medico bureaucrat academicians who insist that their group think about how to stop a pandemic are going to be discredited as it becomes clear that COVID-19 is wildly infectious but at the same time not very fatal except for the old, infirm and others compromised in health. That would include HIV/AIDS sufferers. You don't hear much about that, but IMO that is because such people are typically members of the LGBTQ "community" and therefore members of a protected group. In pursuit of the power of policy dictation the doctor philosopher kings have contributed mightily to the near death of the greatest world economy in history (ours). Let us hope the more sensible state governors can do enough to remedy this disaster to bring back some measure of prosperity. I hope that Trump realizes that he does not have constitutional power over the governors. As I have previously written he would have to declare states he targeted to be in rebellion or say that they had lost the power to govern themselves in order to have a claim to that sort of power.
3. US foreign policy in the greater ME remains the shambles that Zionist and/or neocon infiltration of government and manipulation of election funding have made it. There is little difference in responsibility for this in the two major political parties. As a result of Trump's continuation of the Israel inspired policy of meddling in the affairs of the Islamic culture continent the US now finds itself in a position in which policies of domination have caused us to have a thousand or so US military "hostages" scattered across NE Syria and all over Iraq where they are completely vulnerable to attack from Iran and its allies.
4. This potential hostage posture is a major inhibition to US freedom of action in the Gulf where Iranian aggressiveness is targeted toward a withdrawal of the US Navy from the Gulf. IMO such a forced withdrawal caused by a minor power like Iran because we are afraid to fight would be a major milestone in the decline of America's power in the world. Our enemies would rejoice. IMO the navy can easily defeat any Iranian enemy but the hostage situation in Syria, and Iraq is a major impediment to naval action. We should get out of those two countries. We should not have been there in the first place. I am clearly on record about that from 2001 onward. In the case of Afghanistan the hinge of fate swung in 2009 with Obama's disastrous decision to let the COIN generals persuade him to try to build a new and modern Afghanistan. The resulting state has expenses for its security forces that are greater than its GDP.
5. Some constitutional mechanism must be developed in the US for forcing the retirement from office of old people who are judged to be demented. The ice cream interview comes to mind. pl
22 March 2020
Assad's annual amnesty for prisoners
According to this report out of Beirut President Assad has signed a decree of amnesty for people held in prison for civil crimes. This includes prisoners condemned to death for crimes like murder. This is an annual event.
This contrasts nicely with ISIS' public prayers for God to inflict death by CODIV-19 on the unbelievers as part of the jihad in what they imagine to be God's behalf. pl
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-president-issues-general-amnesty-for-all-prisoners/
19 March 2020
Incident at Muhambal - TTG
An expression of jihadi displeasure with Erdogan
BEIRUT, LEBANON (3:00 P.M.) – A Turkish military convoy that was traveling through the Idlib countryside on Wednesday was reportedly ambushed by unknown assailants, Muraselon news reported, citing opposition media. The Muraselon report said the Turkish Army convoy was traveling through the town of Mahambal when they were ambushed by the unknown assailants.
“According to information monitored by Muraselon, a Turkish Army convoy was subjected to a number of explosive devices during a crossing along the Latakia-Aleppo road (M-4), which is under the control of the militants; this led to the loss of a number of Turkish forces,” Muraselon said.
The report said clashes broke out shortly after the attack, later resulting in the Turkish Army cordoning off the area. Some opposition activists have accused the jihadists of the Hurras Al-Deen Group, but they have denied any role in the ambush. (Al Masdar News)
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’Tis a puzzlement. Will the Turkish Army continue their shoulder to shoulder support of their jihadi brothers when the SAA and Russian Aerospace Forces inevitably start clearing the M4 or will the Turks abandon the jihadis to their fate?
Erdogan appeared to be content with the latest plan to cede the control of the M4 highway, Jisr al Shighour and Arihah to Damascus. The jihadis were not content with any of this. They stopped the joint Turkish-Russian patrols of the M4 and bulldozed a section of the highway in a fit of displeasure.
These actions and this incident at Muhambal shows that some jihadis are not pleased with Erdogan’s level of enthusiasm for their cause. And they are showing their displeasure at his lack of enthusiasm. It will be truly interesting to see how this aspect develops when the next phase of Operation Idlib Dawn kicks off.
TTG
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-military-convoy-ambushed-in-idlib-countryside-report/
Forward to the M-4!
Pompeo, the neocon in chief, continues to blame the SAG for all things not approved by the Ghost of McCain, but, never mind, the R+6 has calculated the intent of Turkey in Syria and the distance between the Sultan and his jihadi pals.
Based on this calculus the SAA is going to renew the offensive to move up to the line of the M-4 and take jisr-al-shugur back from the al-qa'ida affiliates who have held it for far too long.
One can only hope that the pro-government forces have "the juice" to move the ball that far. pl
https://southfront.org/syrian-army-is-aiming-jisr-al-shughur-as-next-target-of-idlib-offensive/
15 March 2020
The Idlib cease-fire is already disintegrating.
"On March 15, the Russian Military Police and Turkish forces conducted first joint patrol in southern Idlib. According to agreements reached in Moscow, the patrol was set to be conducted along the part of the M4 highway, where a buffer zone had to be establsihed. This included the withdrawal of heavy weapons and radical armed groups (al-Qaeda & friends) from the area. However, this did not happen. Furthermore, the countryside of Jisr al-Shughur remains the stronghold of the al-Qaeda-linked Turkistan Islamic Party.
So, Ankara and Moscow decided to conduct a limited patrol west of Saraqib to avoid an expected escalation and attacks on the patrol. Even this effort did not go without difficulties. Turkish forces failed to reopen the M4 highway (blocked by militant supporters) and the patrol took place only in a few km west of the government-controlled town of Sraqib (on the crossroad of the M5 and M4 highways." SF
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Per the cease fire agreement between the Russians and Turks, the jihadis are supposed to withdraw their force from the area south of the M-4 that they still hold and from the entire de-militarized buffer zone on both sides of the road. They evidently haven't done any of that and the SAA is refitting its units and preparing to resume the offensive against them. This "ceasefire" was never going to be more than an operational pause from the POV of the SAA and their friends like the Quds Brigade (Palestinians).
the Turks having been doing their best to make the cease-fire line into a permanent border but this concept is clearly falling apart when faced by jihadi intransigence.
The extent to which the nasty little US neocons are involved in Idlib is unclear to me. pl
11 March 2020
The Sultan's wandering eye.
Sultan Fatih Tayyip, restorer of Sunni triumphalism, has proposed to the heir of the Romanov House that the Turks and Russians assume management of the Syrian oil and gas fields east of the Euphrates River. Having triumphed in Idlib he now wishes to accept his responsibilities for this newly remembered portion of the Ottoman patrimony.
It is not clear what Russia's reaction to this proposal might be.
Sultan Tayyip says that he might make this same proposal to President Trump (America's greatest or near greatest president). General Jack Keane, Trump's friend, can advise him. pl
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/erdogan-wants-to-jointly-manage-syrias-oil-fields/
08 March 2020
HTS has killed the "cease fire."
"Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has officially rejected the recent Russian-Turkish agreement on Greater Idlib, vowing to keep on fighting.
In an official statement, the terrorist group claimed that the agreement would allow the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces to resume military operation in the region. The group also noted that most of the agreement’s terms are “not implementable.”
“This agreement is tinged with ambiguity and loose, floating phrases that allow the Russian occupier to use it for aggression again, and there are also terms that cannot be implemented at all, in face, they are considered an insult and humiliation of the blood of the martyrs and the sacrifices of ten continuous years,” HTS’ statement, which was released on March 7, reads.
The terrorist group also thanked the Turkish government for directly engaging in the recent battle against the SAA and its allies in Greater Idlib
HTS concluded its statement by vowing to fight on against the SAA and its allies, promising that there will be “no peace or security” until the Syrian government is overthrown." SF
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As I expected. this cease fire is merely a pause in the Idlib Province struggle. HTS (al-Qa'ida) rejects the cease fire. Therefore there is no cease fire. The SAA and allies will use he pause to re-fit and rest units bloodied in the recent fighting and then a pretext will allow R+6 to resume operations intended to clear Idlib of the jihadis and Turks. How long will the pause last. It is impossible to say. The frustration and rage of the war party in Washington and London must be impressive.
All the conspiracy minded drivel now being sent to SST is laughable. The situation is really quite simple. Erdogan can hardly wait to fulfill his "destiny" as Sultan Caliph and mahdi of the Sunni world and his fantasy of a Europe included in the 'umma. HTS is uninterested in his fantasy. They have their own fantasy to fulfill. pl
https://southfront.org/damascus-aleppo-highway-open-again-for-traffic-photos/
«Erdogan leads a panislamist and neo-ottoman project that must be fought urgently» Le Figaro
(Mezri Haddad)
We have this translation from the French text courtesy of Phillipe Boileau who lives at Montreal. pl
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FIGAROVOX/TRIBUNE – The philosopher Mezri Haddad analyses Turkish president Erdogan’s foreign policy. Erdogan aims, in Haddad's view, to transform Turkey into an anti-Western power on the basis of the conflict of civilisations model of Samuel Huntington.
This essay was published the 3rd of March 2020 at 10:37, and updated the 4th of march 2020 at 01:53 in Le Figaro.
Mezri Haddad is a philosopher and president of the ‘Centre international de géopolitique et de prospective analytique CIGPA’ (International center of geopolitics and analytical prospective)
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Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been scheming against European countries for a long time. For the second time since 2015, he has carried out his blackmail of migratory flooding by opening his land and sea borders with Greece to thousands of Syrian, Afghan, Iraqi, Pakistani, Somali refugees. Among them, there are certainly terrorist infiltrators who have shaved their beards or shed their burkas. This migration is his "nuclear" deterrent, a human pipeline intended to subject the European Union to pan-Islamism and expansionist oukases [Arbitrary decision, imperative order].
The message of the Istanbul satrap [bureaucrat in a negative sense] is perfectly clear: "To safeguard the borders of Europe, either the Europeans pay me (Erdogan) even more money by supporting me militarily in my war against Damascus alongside my Islamic-terrorist mercenaries, or I pour on her thousands of Syrian hostages who dream of the European Eldorado." For, as far as Syrians are concerned, they are indeed hostages that the Turkish regime has long prevented from returning to their towns and villages pacified and liberated by the Syrian army from the barbarity of Daesh, Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra...
Idlib province is one of the last terrorist strongholds that the Erdogan regime has supported since the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring. The Arab spring’s impacts are now being measured in the aggregation of political, geopolitical, humanitarian, socio-economic and security aspects not only in Syria but also in Libya, Yemen and Tunisia. Tunisia being the most ‘successful’ in its spring by entrusting the reality of power to the servants of Erdogan that are the Muslim Brotherhood! The liberation of Idlib is at the root of this new and very serious migration crisis. Idlib province is the most advanced post of irregular Turkish troops (jihadists) in Syrian territory. In his defense of these terrorists, the Turkish autocrat invoked security and even "humanitarian" reasons, hundreds of inhabitants of these provinces who had fallen under the yoke of theocratic totalitarianism who could flee the war and take refuge in Turkey, like the 4 million Syrians already exiled to the country. Erdogan's deception is useless because it is himself who prevents Syrian refugees from returning to their villages, and who keeps them as a bargaining chip and leverage over Europe. Before carrying out his threats, Erdogan justified his plan to occupy Syrian territories by making Europeans believe that, rather than being invaded by thousands of Syrian refugees, it would be better for them to entrust Turkey’s neo-Ottoman mission to confine these refugees to Idlib and Aleppo.
But European leaders are no longer fooled. Even if it took them a long time to understand it, they now know that the Turkish regime has forged close links with the major terrorist organizations that were rampant in Iraq and Syria and whose ramifications go as far as Europe. At his joint conference in London with Donald Trump on December 3, 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron had the courage to declare: "When I look at Turkey, it now fights those (Kurds) who fought with us, alongside us against the Islamic state. Sometimes the Turks work with IS intermediaries. It's a problem and it's a strategic problem... The common enemy today are terrorist groups and I am sorry that we do not have the same definition of terrorism."
02 March 2020
Some thoughts on Idlib Dawn - TTG
The seesaw events of the last few days can be examined from the political dancing and posturing of the major players and from the combatants’ maneuvers on the battlefield. Obviously there is a lot of interplay between the two, but I think it is the soldiers who are driving this train rather than the politicians. I'm also way more comfortable at the grazing fire level than wallowing among the political class.
The SAA still is composed of a few well trained, well led and well equipped combined arms units capable of sustained heavy combat. They are constantly moved to where they are needed most. Most of the SAA positions are manned by lightly armed National Defense Forces (NDF) and local militias. These forces essentially man a picket line against the jihadis. They can defend against light probes, but cannot withstand a major jihadi assault especially when those jihadis are supported by Turkish artillery and armor. That is what happened at Saraqib when the 25th Division and Liwa al Quds were withdrawn to attack the al Zawhiya Mountains and the M4 from the south. It happened again when the 25th and Liwa Al Quds pulled out of that offensive to deal with Saraqib for the second time. Fortunately, the NDF and militias were able to withdraw rather than being overrun and destroyed.
In the face of the SAA success in Operation Idlib Dawn, Erdogan slowly ratcheted up the use of the Turkish Army to bolster his jihadi allies on the battlefield. The SAA adjusted. However, bombing of the convoy resulting in the death of thirty plus Turkish soldiers drove Erdogan to find a way to assuage his embarrassment. I think his retaliation with MLRS, artillery and drone strikes surprised the SAA and the Russians as well. Perhaps the Russians first thought the Turkish strikes were a face saving measure and would stop after the initial strikes. Erdogan thought this Russian pause was a sign of weakness and did not stop his attacks. Another blunder. The R+6 adjusted once again. SAA air defenses were moved to the battlefield. Russian air strikes increased. It appears Russian EW units are now in action against Turkish drones. The SAA is still not directly targeting the Turks, but if the Turks are hanging abound the jihadis, the SAA does not hesitate to strike. With all the Turkish equipment and uniforms supplied to the jihadis, it getting difficult to tell them apart. Russia has told Turkey they could not guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft over Syria. I believe the Iranians have also warned Turkey that all those surrounded Turkish observation posts were under direct observation and could easily be under direct fire. Erdogan’s bluff has been called.
The jihadis are suffering from a lack of sufficient assault troops in spite of Turkish largesse. After retaking Saraqib with several days of relentless assaults and heavy casualties, they pulled many of their fighters off the battlefield to address the threat to the M4 to their west. They could not hold Saraqib and attack south of the M4 at the same time. Their chance to retake Saraqib is now gone. The Russians have moved their MPs into Saraqib as a signal to Erdogan that it is forever part of Syria.
The jihadi counteroffensive in southern Idlib was blunted in a unique way. The SAA in Kafr Nabl let the word that they have withdrawn from Kafr Nabl be spread on social media. In reality, the SAA remained in hidden positions in the town hoping to lure the jihadis into an ambush. It worked. The jihadis advanced and were annihilated. The SAA immediately counterattacked and retook two additional towns. I don’t know what SAA unit this was. It could very well have been an NDF outfit. They are learning. The jihadis are whining about Spetsnaz operating in the area. Maybe they are, maybe they’re not. I actually hope there are Russian advisors working with those second tier NDF units, advising and calling in air strikes. This ambush is something I would have advised them to do. I love the ambush.
The Russians are rapidly replacing the SAA’s battlefield losses in equipment and are not withholding air support to the SAA. Neither Moscow nor Damascus are impressed by Erdogan’s latest histrionics. Trump and the DoD has said no dice to Erdogan’s request for help. It does appear that Pompeo is still trying to drum up some kind of support for “our staunch NATO ally.”
I predict the R+6 will secure both the M4 and M5 in the coming weeks, but will leave Idlib city for another day. They have to let the Turkish frog boil a little longer before he will accept the fact that Idlib is a Syrian city without throwing another hissy fit. He’ll also have to figure out what he’s going to do with all those jihadi friends of his. Libya isn’t going his way, either.
TTG
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-deploys-military-to-saraqib-in-clear-message-to-turkey/
01 March 2020
Would counter-battery attacks in Syria or Turkey trigger NATO Article Five? -revision 1
"This map provides a general look at the recent gains by Turkish-led forces in southern Idlib. The Turkish Army and its al-Qaeda-linked allies have retaken several villages from the Syrian army and beiseged the town of Kafr Nabul, which the Syrians had recently liberated from al-Qaeda." SF
https://southfront.org/map-update-advances-of-turkish-led-forces-in-southern-idlib/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Turkish_Land_Forces
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IMO the gains made by the jihadis and the Turkish Army in Idlib Province are being made because of the masses of artillery weapons and multiple launcher rocket systems (MLRS) that the Turks were equipped with when they were a major factor in NATO plans to halt a possible Soviet attack in the Balkans and from the Caucasus.
A lot of these weapons are old but they still work well and have ranges that can influence the fighting in Syria from positions WITHIN Hatay Province, Turkey (what the Russians now call "the stolen province"). We are talking about 203 MM howitzers and 175 mm long rifles among other weapons. I can tell you from personal experience that these are devastating weapons.
The appropriate military response to fires from such artillery and MLRS is COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE. IOW the point of origin of the fires is determined virtually instantaneously by counter-battery radar or satellite observation (Russian) and fires are placed on the firing positions before the guns or MLRS can be moved. This procedure would kill a lot of Turks and destroy a lot of their equipment. IMO it would stop the present Turkish counter-offensive. Could Fatih Sultan Tayyip politically survive such an experience? Only Allah knows.
The NATO Treaty's Article Five provides for mutual defense against attacks from outside the alliance. Would counter-battery fire against the Turks, if they are firing into Syria, trigger Article Five? I doubt that the Europeans would want to go to war against Russia to protect the sultan's ambitions. Counter-battery fir against Turkish artillery operating INSIDE Syria would no be a political problem involving NATO.
The Turks must have moved some guns forward into Syria to support the Turco/jihadi force around Saraqib. Some other group of heavy weapons must be supporting the Turco/jihadi force near the northern el-Ghaab Plain. Are they in Syria? Maybe, but wherever they are, IMO they can be struck without fear of Article Five.
Would the Syrians then be attacked by US forces with or without Article Five? Maybe they would be. That would depend on the level of Pompeo's influence with the president. pl
29 February 2020
Mr President! Pompeo wants a US War in Syria!
“This was and remains a bad idea,” said one of the people familiar with the discussions. Turkey and the U.S. have a history when it comes to the Patriot. Over Washington's objections, Ankara last year received an advanced Russian S-400 missile-defense system that the U.S. considers a threat to the F-35 fighter jet and NATO air defenses. The U.S. had offered the Patriot as an alternative, but Turkey has committed to the Russian system. As a result, Washington kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program, for which it was both a customer and manufacturing partner. A DoD spokesperson declined to comment. A spokesperson for Jeffrey referred POLITICO to a statement from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who on Friday condemned the attack and called on the Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian backers to cease their assault on Idlib. He noted that the U.S. is “reviewing options to assist Turkey against this aggression.”"" politico
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Idlib Governorate is Syrian territory. The Syrian government is a member state of the UN. The Russians are assisting the Syrian government at the request of that government. "Fatih" Sultan Erdogan has introduced thousands of Turkish Army troops into northern Syria in what amounts to a neo-Ottoman land grab.
He has a major problem in that so far, neither the Turkish Army (TSK) nor their Sunni jihadi allies are fighting very well. They have managed to re-capture the town of Saraqib on the four lane highway between Damascus and Aleppo, but for how long? The SAA and their militia allies are massing to re-take the town.
To the west nearly all of Idlib Governorate south of the M-4 east-west highway is within artillery fire of the advancing SAA and at the northern end of the al-Ghaab Plain the spearheads are apparently within 6 miles of the M-4. Assuming that the M-4 is the Turkish Main Supply Route (MSR) out of Hatay Province to the west, an SAA interdiction of that major road will imperil the Turkish led force around Saraqib. The Turks will then either withdraw from Saraqib or attack any SAA blockage of the M-4 or both. In classic militaryspeak, the Turks would be said to have been "turned out" of their position at Saraqib by the SAA move onto the M-4 to the west. The resulting engagement would be a desperate fight. In the midst of this situation the Russian Aerospace expeditionary force would be heavily engaged.
Mike Pompeo, Jeffrey, his henchman, and all the neocons in and out of the Borg (foreign policy establishment) want the US to become directly involved in this battle by providing Turkish forces in Syria air defense from US manned Patriot missile batteries. The Turks could not man the systems themselves if we provided them. They also want the US to declare a "no-fly zone" over Idlib Governorate. Such a zone would be a declaration that the US and little friends would shoot down any military aircraft flying over this piece of Syrian territory without US permission. This would be an act of war by the United States and would cause a de facto state of war to exist between the US and Russia.
The US Department of Defense thinks that such engagement on our part is a stupid neocon conception that has it roots in Israeli desire to destroy the Syrian Government, preferring to have a zone of warring factions where Syria once was, a Hobbesian scene of desolation and a war of all against all, The Israeli idea is as stupid as that of the neocons.
President Trump, the Commander in Chief of the US armed forces, holds the sole power to decide. Let us hope that he decides well. pl
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/turkey-patriot-missiles-pentagon-118256
27 February 2020
Idlib Dawn Update "Send lawyers, guns and money" - TTG
Everybody's restless and they've got no place to goSomeone's always trying to tell them
Something they already know
So their anger and resentment flow
But don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long
Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio
You know, the Sheriff's got his problems too
He will surely take them out on you
In walked the village idiot and his face was all aglow
He's been up all night listening to Mohammed's Radio
Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long
Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio
Everybody's desperate trying to make ends meet
Work all day, still can't pay the price of gasoline and meat
Alas, their lives are incomplete
Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio
You've been up all night listening for his drum
Hoping that the righteous might just might just might just come
I heard the General whisper to his aide-de-camp
"Be watchful for Mohammed's lamp"
Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long Mohammed's Radio
This late Warren Zevon's song is echoing through my head today. Whether you fancy yourself Mohammed or the village idiot, I suggest you pay attention to the radio (or internet) for the sh*t is about to truly hit the fan in Syria. The jihadis have managed to retake Saraqib and cut the M5 afters days of relentless and costly attacks. To the south, an SAA attack spearheaded by the 25th Division and Liwa al Quds has retaken another large swath of Idlib south of the M4 including the Al Zawiya Mountains and the Al Ghab Plain. The 25th is now returning to Saraqib to spearhead the counterattack on that front. The 4th Armored Division may be joining them.
This back and forth on the battlefield is to be expected, especially with the direct support provided by Turkey to the jihadis. However something changed today. Russian and Syrian air attacks have increased with devastating results. Wild reports of a strike on a Turkish convoy and/or positions with up to a hundred dead Turkish soldiers are flashing across social media. Up to this point Turkish casualties have been a few here and a few there every day. This is a direct threat to Erdogan's authority. Twitter has been shut down within Turkey to hide the news. Turkish-Russian talks to redefine the Idlib deescalation zone have ended in failure. Erdogan has told all jihadis to be prepared to go for broke and has declared all Syria to be a target of the Grand Sultan's wrath. Putin has told Erdogan that his presence on any Syrian territory is temporary. All Syria will be ruled from Damascus.
Meanwhile, the old lady from South Carolina is pleading with Trump to establish a no fly zone in Idlib. I'm fairly confident that Trump will not fall for such stupidity, but who knows what will happen if Erdogan whispers sweet nothings in Trump's ear.
The rhetoric is becoming increasingly heated and the actions increasingly dangerous. What happens when Erdogan sends waves of refugees to Europe with the threat of Coronavirus in the wind? What happens if Erdogan confiscates Trump towers in Istanbul? Will Erdogan send his air force into Syria and will Russian and Syrian air defenses shoot down the Turkish planes? Is Putin about to deliver an Ottoman slap to Erdogan? Keep your ears to the radio, my friends.
TTG
24 February 2020
The Failed Prognostications of Max Boot Regarding President Trump by Larry C Johnson
I stumbled across a Podesta email obtained by Wikileaks that is dated February 2016 and provides an amusing perspective on why the NeoCons and foreign policy establishment embodied by the likes of Mac Boot were so wrong about Donald Trump. It is especially delicious to read the disastrously wrong prognostications of Max Boot and Benn Steil three years into the Trump Presidency.
The story starts on 26 February 2016 when Been Steil sends an email containing a Weekly Standard article on Trump's policies that he co-authored with uber NeoCon, Max Boot, to former North Carolina Senator, Erskine Bowles, who is closely tied to the Clintons. Bowles in turn sends the article to Clinton Campaign chair, John Podesta with the succinct message--"worth reading."
Let's dig in to the Boot/Steil piece. They start with this dig:
Following his primary victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, Donald Trump has established himself as the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. He has done so offering grandiose slogans — He'll Make America Great Again (MAGA)! He'll have us win so much we'll get bored with winning!
Leave it to these two chuckleheads to fail to grasp Trump's sense of humor (i.e., getting bored with winning) and to understand that Trump was serious about MAGA.
14 February 2020
“Syrian Army in full control of Aleppo-Damascus Highway for first time 8 years” - TTG
BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:10 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is officially in full control of the Aleppo-Damascus Highway (M-5) after eight years of battle. The Syrian Army said they captured the last points along the highway on Tuesday evening, when their forces took control of the strategic town of Khan Al-‘Assal and the nearby Rashiddeen 4 sector in southwestern Aleppo.
According to the Syrian Army, their forces were able to achieve this imperative victory after capturing several important sites in eastern Idlib, including the cities of Saraqib and Ma’arat Al-Nu’man. While the Aleppo-Damascus Highway is under their control, the roadway will not likely be reopened to the public until the Syrian Army pushes west towards the Turkish border.
The reason for this is due to the fact that the jihadist rebels of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and their allies from the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front (NLF) still maintain a presence along the western part of the Aleppo-Damascus Highway. Furthermore, there are still grave concerns of a potential large-scale Turkish military offensive to reclaim the areas lost by the jihadist rebels over the last few weeks. (AMN)
————
A lot went on in the last week to get to this point. I and other observers saw this clearing of the M5 as the objective of this phase of operation Idlib Dawn. The SAA is still on the offensive and may be aiming for more. One thing is for certain. The jihadis are having their asses handed to them.
Let’s look at the SAA’s progress in maps. I wish I could make one of those animated battlefield maps like the American Battlefield Trust created for many of our Civil War battles, but that’s beyond my reach. You’ll have to settle for this series of borrowed maps along with my comments. Most of the recent action took place well north of Saraqib and Idlib. The 25th Special operations Division continued to move north along the M5 forcing the jihadis east of that highway to retreat to avoid encirclement. The 25th linked up with the Republican Guard near Al Barfoum and Zerbeh along the M5 on 8 February. At that point, the 25th did the unexpected. They struck northwest from ICARDA agricultural research station towards Kafr Aleppo.
The axis of this advance took the high ground in the middle of the Idlib plain. It appeared the 25th was heading towards Kafr Nouran, Al Atarib and the Bab al Hawa Highway, Turkey’s main supply route to Idlib.
05 February 2020
“VIDEO of fake chemical attack in Syria already complete, White Helmets co-produced footage” - TTG
We all knew it was coming and RT has a preview of coming attractions.
————
The White Helmets have shot a new fake video of 'Assad's chemical attack' in Syria's Idlib, the Russian MoD has said. The movie, co-produced by the notorious White Helmets, is expected to be released shortly on social media. Production of the new film was concluded on Tuesday in the village of Zerba, located in the militant-controlled part of Syria's Idlib province, the Russian Center for Syrian Reconciliation has said, citing several independent sources.
The video, shot by the notorious White Helmets group in cooperation with local terrorists, purports to show the aftermath of a "chemical attack" on civilians by Syria's government troops.
The footage, according to the MoD, shows 'rescuers' wandering around in a thick plume of "mustard-colored gas" and attending to the 'victims' of the staged "attack." (RT)
————
The usual suspects can be expected to be in high dudgeon shortly about the dastardly Assad regime. Among those suspects I expect to hear from that fat bastard Pompeo. He already issued a statement yesterday condemning “the continued, unjustifiable, and ruthless assaults on the people of Idlib.”
Well, what else do they have? The jihadis are having no luck in stopping the SAA. They’re about to lose Saraqib and surely much more. The hastily established Turkish “observation posts” are certainly not intimidating the SAA. Erdogan’s hysterics about the crumbling Astana plan is falling on deaf ears in Moscow. Why not roll out that old “those monsters gassed us” routine once again. Yeah! That’s the ticket!
TTG
https://www.rt.com/news/480057-video-fake-chemical-attack/
https://www.rt.com/news/480004-syria-chemical-attack-warning/
03 February 2020
Idlib Dawn Update - Erdogan’s Dilemma - TTG
25th Division (Tiger Force) soldiers standing on the M4 west of Saraqib
BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:40 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continued their push towards the strategic Aleppo-Latakia Highway (M-4) this afternoon following the capture of two towns earlier today. Backed by heavy artillery, the Syrian Arab Army’s 25th Special Mission Forces Division (formerly Tiger Forces) maneuvered around the Turkish military this afternoon to capture two more towns along this key highway.
According to the latest field report from Idlib, the Syrian Army captured the towns of Al-Turniyah and Nayrab after advancing southwest of Saraqib. As a result of this advance, the Syrian Arab Army found themselves in position to cutoff the Aleppo-Latakia Highway, which resulted in the obstruction of a militant supply route between the cities of Aleppo and Idlib. Furthermore, this advance allowed the Syrian Army to reach the Idlib part of the Aleppo-Latakia Highway for the first time since 2015.
Last night, the Turkish Armed Forces carried out a number of strikes against the Syrian Arab Army, following accusations that the latter killed four Turkish soldiers inside the Idlib Governorate. (AMN)
—————
With this weekend’s advance by the SAA, Erdogan is left not knowing whether to shit or go blind. Over the last week, he sent 200 vehicles including 50 tanks and APCs into Idlib in an effort to thwart the SAA’s taking of Saraqib. He established “observation posts” to the north, east, south and west of the city as shown on the map below.
The OP to the west of Saraqib on the M4 highway came under SAA artillery fire yesterday killing and wounding several Turkish soldiers. Erdogan declared the Astana plan dead. Russia said the Turks moved in without proper coordination so the Turkish casualties are on Erdogan. Iran said that Syria has the right to reclaim her territory even under the Astana plan so Erdogan can pound sand up his ass. It does seem like the SAA will soon create a cauldron with Saraqib full of jihadis and Turks along with a large swath of jihadi infested territory east of Saraqib.
The SAA is only eight kilometers from Idlib city. They are also making good progress on the Aleppo front. The 30th Republican Guards Division has pushed well beyond Khan Tuman and are still driving towards the M5 north of Saraqib. What will Erdogan do next? Will the Turkish Army finally join their jihadi brethren as full fledged co-belligerents against the SAA and the Russian Aerospace Forces?
TTG
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/155222/Iran-reacts-to-Erdogan-s-remarks-on-collapse-of-Astana-process
31 January 2020
"Free at last!" Brexit, etc.
Brexit. This is it! Freedom for the UK! It took the Irish 700 years to achieve independence for part of their island, but here it is for the UK in only 47 years. The Scots may depart, preferring the yoke of Brussels, but then, the English and Welsh care not. Brave souls. Trumpy will be acquitted in his first senate trial today or maybe tomorrow and will announce the commencement of negotiations for the "greatest trade deal of all time" with Boris, his English doppelganger. There is the pesky little matter of the British NHS, but some way around that problem will be found. A US/British trade deal is obviously on the "right side of history." pl
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Israel/Palestine. Recommend the linked article below on the multitudinous defects of the "deal of the century." It mirrors my thinking and so must be a work of genius. pl
https://prospect.org/world/dont-call-it-a-peace-plan-israel-palestine-trump/
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Turkish Policy. IMO the Turks have decided that they don't want to fight the R+6 for a piece or all of Idlib Province in Syria. They haven't really fought anyone since the Korean War and contrary to civilian delusions war is not just a matter of who has the most and biggest toys. Practice counts a lot. And, even Erdo may realize that the number and depth of the purges he has inflicted on the Turkish officer corps have certainly caused a decline in the quality of the force. It is noticeable that when confronted up close by R+6 forces the Turks shy from actual combat. I remain convinced that a lot of Turkish ambition in Syria is fueled by neo-Ottoman irredentism. Syria was part of the empire for hundreds of years and the same thing is true of Libya until the Senussi Sufi order's revolt against Ottoman rule in 1911. Turkey is now exporting pet jihadis from Syria to Libya. Sounds like they are beginning to give up on long term acquisitions in Syria. pl
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SpaceX TV and Space voyeurism. One of the marvels of the modern world is the ability to watch rocket launches into earth orbit on Space X's TeeVee channel. You can follow the whole process from the count-down to first stage recovery to delivery of the payload to orbit on Space X Tee Vee live. https://www.spacex.com/
And … You can get a free app for your phone at the App Store that will notify you when the next launch is ready. pl
27 January 2020
Operation Idlib Dawn Resumes - TTG
Front lines prior to the start of the offensive
During the last few weeks, the SAA redeployed its forces to the eastern side of the Idlib front. This included moving the 4th Armored Division from Jish al Shigour to Aleppo. In addition to the 4th Division, the SAA order of battle along this front includes three divisions of the 3rd and 4th Corps, 4 brigades of the 5th Corps, the Republican Guard 30th Division along with the 25th Special forces Division and Liwa al Quds.
The northern sector of this front, west of Aleppo was the most difficult area to make an advance due to the urban density of the western suburbs and strong jihadi defenses. The jihadis brought reinforcements into this area during the last weeks, most of them with experience in urban combat. This area is far more critical to the jihadis’ and Turkey’s desire to maintain a presence in the Aleppo-Idlib region. This is where the jihadis will defend. To the south, especially in the Maarat al Numan area, the jihadis probably see the will of Allah in eventually being driven out just as they were from Khan Sheikhun.
The offensive operation began on 24 January and unfolded as expected. SouthFront did a good writeup of the actions of the weekend along with a nice little video. I recommend you review that article and video, along with the maps I’ve included, for a good synopsis.
SAA gains on 26 January
SAA gains on 27 January
I watched as various tweeters and rumor mills reported the actions during the weekend. I am not surprised as the SAA’s progress. I gather Erdogan is not surprised either. At the same time he was sending a couple thousand of his jihadis to Libya, he was crying like a rat eating onions to Putin begging for a ceasefire in Idlib. Russian and Syrian aerospace forces have been pounding the living daylights out of the jihadis for weeks, slowing only during occasional bouts of bad weather. I noticed a video of jihadis all in helmets and body armor. I’m sure this is in response to the continuous R+6 air and artillery bombardment.
I think the overall plan for this offensive was brilliant. The SAA massed enough forces along the entire front to prevent the jihadis from launching a successful counterattack to relieve pressure on Maarat al Numan or the western outskirts of Aleppo. This also prevented the jihadis from concentrating their forces as either of these objectives.
Conservation of forces seems to be the order of the day for both sides. The jihadis are choosing to withdraw under heavy air and rocket fire (SAA BM-21 Grad) rather than DIP (die in place). As the jihadis withdraw, the SAA is not rushing in immediately. They have learned that the jihadis often launch strong counterattacks before the SAA can consolidate on the objective. I disagree with SouthFront about the SAA storming Maarat al Numan. I believe they are trying to force them to vacate the city on their own. The Syrian Army Air Force has already destroyed several jihadi convoys as they attempted to flee to the north on the M5 and to the west. The SAA also discovered and destroyed a large tunnel from Maarat al Numan to the Idlib countryside. Rather than storming the city or fully surrounding it, I believe the 25th Special Forces Division (formerly known as the Tiger Force) will advance north along the M5 towards Saraqib. This will support the SAA units attacking from the east.
Judging by the videos, this still appears to be a platoon leader’s war. Assaults are undertaken by groups of 20 to 30 infantryman supported by a tank and a couple of BMPs. Perhaps that’s why consolidation on the objective remains such a fragile time for the SAA. This also is a caveat about the SAA order of battle. All those divisions and brigades are nowhere near the size of Western units. If those regiments and brigades are battalion size, I’d be surprised. SAA tanks are often used as sniper platforms. I have seen no videos of mass armor assaults even though this seems to be excellent tank country. The reason for this may be that this is also excellent country for ATGMs. This emphasis on conservation of forces developed during the darkest days of the Syrian war before the Russians were persuaded to intervene by Qasem Soleimani. The SAA could not afford to squander the few forces it had left. It's a healthy approach for any military.
I’m confident that this offensive will end with the entire M5 under the SAA’s control at the very least. The question is what’s next? Will the SAA head for the city of Idlib and approach Jisr al Shigour from the west or will they concentrate on widening control around Aleppo. All in good time, my friends, all in good time.
TTG
26 January 2020
The ME may yet destroy Trump
President Trump will easily be acquitted in the senate trial. This may occur this week and there will probably be no witnesses called. That will be an additional victory for him and will add to the effect of his trade deal victories and the general state of the US economy. These factors should point to a solid victory in November for him and the GOP in Congress.
Ah! Not so fast the cognoscenti may cry out. Not so fast. The Middle East is a graveyard of dreams:
1. Iraq. Street demonstrations in Iraq against a US alliance are growing more intense. There may well have been a million people in Muqtada al-Sadr's extravaganza. Shia fury over the death of Soleimani is quite real. Trump's belief that in a contest of the will he will prevail over the Iraqi Shia is a delusion, a delusion born of his narcissistic personality and his unwillingness to listen to people who do not share his delusions. A hostile Iraqi government and street mobs would make life unbearable for US forces there.
2. Syria. The handful of American troops east and north of the Euphrates "guarding" Syrian oil from the Syrian government are in a precarious position with the Shia Iraqis at their backs across the border and a hostile array of SAA, Turks, jihadis and potentially Russians to their front and on their flanks.
3. Palestine. The "Deal of the Century" is approaching announcement. From what is known of its contours, the deal will kill any remaining prospects for Palestinian statehood and will relegate all Palestinians (both Israeli citizens and the merely occupied) to the status of helots forever . Look it up. In return the deal will offer the helotry substantial bribes in economic aid money. Trump evidently continues to believe that Palestinians are untermenschen . He believe they will sell their freedom. The Palestinian Authority has already rejected this deal. IMO their reaction to the imposition of this regime is likely to be another intifada.
Some combination of the disasters that may emerge from these ME factors might well turn Trump's base against him and this result would be entirely of his own making. pl
10 January 2020
The Facts About Iran and Terrorism by Larry C Johnson
When emotion rules the day facts do not matter. Sadly, that is the reality we confront when it comes to talking about Iran and terrorism. The U.S. Government and almost all of the media continue to declare that Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism. That is not true. That is a lie. I realize that calling this assertion a lie opens me to accusations of being an apologist for Iran. But simply look at the facts.
Here is the most recent U.S. State Department claim about Iran and terrorism:
Iran remains the world’s worst state sponsor of terrorism. The regime has spent nearly one billion dollars per year to support terrorist groups that serve as its proxies and expand its malign influence across the globe. Tehran has funded international terrorist groups such as Hizballah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It also has engaged in its own terrorist plotting around the world, particularly in Europe. In January, German authorities investigated 10 suspected Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force operatives. In the summer, authorities in Belgium, France, and Germany thwarted an Iranian plot to bomb a political rally near Paris, France. In October, an Iranian operative was arrested for planning an assassination in Denmark, and in December, Albania expelled two Iranian officials for plotting terrorist attacks. Furthermore, Tehran continued to allow an AQ facilitation network to operate in Iran, which sends fighters and money to conflict zones in Afghanistan and Syria, and it has extended sanctuary to AQ members residing in the country.
You notice what is absent? A list of specific attacks that caused actual casualties. Plans and plots are not the same as actions. If Iran's malevolent influence was so powerful, we should be able to point to specific attacks and specific casualties. But you will not find those facts in the U.S. State Department report because they do not exist.
Continue reading "The Facts About Iran and Terrorism by Larry C Johnson" »
09 January 2020
Macgregor got it part right on Carlson's show last night
Colonel (ret.) Douglas Macgregor was on Tucker Carlson's show last night. He is a smart man. Tucker is a smart man. Carlson's show is an outpost of sanity in a neocon run US foreign policy establishment (the Borg). Carlson deserves the ratings he gets. I hope those will insulate him from the trepidation that his honesty must inspire in the Murdoch brothers. The rest of Foxnews is much like a clown car show with the clowns clamoring for the approbation of the White House in their eagerness for a neocon war of conquest in the ME. Some people never learn. the last 20 years of disaster in the face of Islamic resistance to Western cultural imperialism have taught them nothing.
Trump started his term as an empty headed business hustler eager to make deals wherever he could and who correctly did not see much of anything to be gained by fighting endlessly all over the Islamic World to impose Israel's 1% policy of eliminating all possible threats from the Muslims.
Trump offered Iran peace negotiations in his post Iran strike speech? No. He did not. He once again offered them the opportunity to surrender to Israeli demands relayed to them by the US.
Now, he is transformed into just another neocon, in fact the neocon in chief. His foreign policy team is run by neocons and bootlickers who fear Pompeo's scorn. The Defense part of that team is dominated by the Pompous one and his West Point classmate Esper at DoD. General Milley and the other present chiefs of staff are carefully chosen to eliminate the possibility of "push-back" from the military. I retract anything bad I ever said about Joe Dunford. I wish he were still here.
Trump is following the neocon/Ziocon line now. He evidently believes any silly thing they tell him. I understand that he has said that Soleimani was engaged in beheading Christians. Well, pilgrims, if you look below about three posts you will see a video of Soleimani and al-Muhandis being mourned by Christian clergy and congregations in Aleppo. Of course, you actually have to understand some Arabic to get that from the video. These Christians mourn these men as being among those who came to fight the Sunni jihadis at Aleppo.
Macgregor rightly understands that there is no there, there for the USA in the Middle East and Central Asia. He correctly understands that to try to sort out all the intra-regional ethnic and sectarian rivalries is a fool's errand. He correctly advocates complete withdrawal from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as does Tulsi Gabbard who was on the same show.
What Macgregor got wrong is that he wants to remain engaged in; Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the GCC generally. Well, Doug, there is no there, there either. There is no Soviet threat. The USA is a net oil and gas exporter. The Iranians have enemies and quarrels with the Saudis and the Israelis, but, so what? We are not Israelis. Neither are we Saudis.
You want to stay engaged in Yemen? the country is full of nasty little hill men who live to fight. This is a Saudi problem.
Let all the crazed creatures of that part of the world fight it out. along the way they will come to muddled partial solutions that will last until the next round of hostility begins. Tant pis pour eux. pl
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-iraq-iran-donald-trump-leave-war
08 January 2020
"Voices of Syria - Rev. Ibrahim Nseir of the Arab Evangelical Presbyterian Church of Aleppo"
Tulsi Gabbard at the Presbyterian Church in Aleppo, Syria, 26 January, 2017
pl
07 January 2020
Soleimani and Al-Muhandis are being mourned in Aleppo churches
(Tehran Armenian Cathedral)
Mike Pompeo was on the TeeVee today scoffing at those who do not agree with him and the Ziocon inspired "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. It must be a terrible thing for intelligence analysts of integrity and actual Middle East knowledge and experience to have to try to brief him and Trump, people who KNOW, KNOW from some superior source of knowledge that Iran is the worst threat to the world since Nazi Germany, or was it Saddam's Iraq that was the worst threat since "beautiful Adolf?"
The "maximum pressure" campaign is born of Zionist terrors, terrors deeply felt. It is the same kind of campaign that has been waged by the Israelis against the Palestinians and all other enemies great and small. This approach does not seem to have done much for Israel. The terrors are still there.
Someone sent me the news tape linked below from Aleppo in NW Syria. I have watched it a number of times. You need some ability in Arabic to understand it. The tape was filmed in several Christian churches in Aleppo where these two men (Soleimani and al-Muhandis) are described from the pulpit and in the street as "heroic martyr victims of criminal American state terrorism." Pompeo likes to describe Soleimani as the instigator of "massacre" and "genocide" in Syria. Strangely (irony) the Syriac, Armenian Uniate and Presbyterian ministers of the Gospel in this tape do not see him and al-Muhandis that way. They see them as men who helped to defend Aleppo and its minority populations from the wrath of Sunni jihadi Salafists like ISIS and the AQ affiliates in Syria. They see them and Lebanese Hizbullah as having helped save these Christians by fighting alongside the Syrian Army, Russia and other allies like the Druze and Christian militias.
It should be remembered that the US was intent on and may still be intent on replacing the multi-confessional government of Syria with the forces of medieval tyranny. Everyone who really knows anything about the Syrian Civil War knows that the essential character of the New Syrian Army, so beloved by McCain, Graham and the other Ziocons was always jihadi and it was always fully supported by Wahhabi Saudi Arabia as a project in establishing Sunni triumphalism. They and the self proclaimed jihadis of HTS (AQ) are still supported in both Idlib and western Aleppo provinces by the Saudis and the present Islamist and neo-Ottoman government of Turkey.
Well pilgrims, there are Christmas trees in the newly re-built Christian churches of Aleppo and these, my brothers and sisters in Christ remember who stood by them in "the last ditch."
"Currently there are at least 600 churches and 500,000–1,000,000 Christians in Iran." wiki below. Are they dhimmis? Yes, but they are there. There are no churches in Saudi Arabia, not a single one and Christianity is a banned religion. These are our allies?
Mr. Jefferson wrote that "he feared for his country when he remembered that God is just." He meant Virginia but I fear in the same way for the United States. pl
06 January 2020
Trump moves to unite the Middle East! (irony)
Teevee coverage of the recent events in the ME has been predictable. Those who hated Trump continue to hate him, etc.
A few observations:
1. I had hoped that Trump's decision to kill an Iranian general engaged in a diplomatic mission (among other things) while the man was on the soil of a supposed ally of the US was something Trump pulled out of his fundament either inspired by war movies or on the recommendation of "our greatest ally" but I am informed that in fact some idiot in the DoD included this option in the list of possibilities that was briefed to the CinC in Florida. The decision process in such matters requires that when options are demanded by the CinC the JCS prepares a list supported for each option by fully formulated documentation that enables the president to approve one (or none) and then sign the required operational order. Trump himself chose the death option. I would hold General Milley (CJCS) personally responsible for not striking this option from the list before it reached the CinC.
2. The Iranians are a subtle people. IMO they will bide their time whilst working out the "bestest" way to inflict some injury on the US and/or Israel. When the retaliation comes it will be imaginative and painful.
3. Trump is now threatening the Iraqis with severe sanctions if they try to enforce their parliamentary decree against the future presence of foreign (US mostly) troops on their soil. IMO a refusal to leave risks a substantial Shia (at least) uprising against the US forces in Iraq. We have around 5,500 people there now spread across the country in little groups engaged in logistics, intelligence and training missions. They are extremely vulnerable. There are something like 150 marines in the embassy. There are also a small number of US combat forces in Syria east and north of the Euphrates river. These include a battalion of US Army National Guard mechanized troops "guarding" Syria's oil from Syria's own army and whatever devilment the Iranians might be able to arrange.
4. This is an untenable logistical situation. Supply and other functions require a major airfield close to Baghdad. We have Balad airbase and helicopter supply and air support from there into Baghdad is possible from there but may become hazardous. Iraq is a big country. It is a long and lonely drive from Kuwait for re-supply from there or evacuation through there. The same thing is true of the desert route to Jordan.
5. Trump's strategery appears to be based on the concept that the Iraqis will submit to our imperial demands. "We will see." pl
04 January 2020
The threat of General Soleimani - TTG
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States had “clear, unambiguous” intelligence that a top Iranian general was planning a significant campaign of violence against the United States when it decided to strike him, the top U.S. general said on Friday, warning Soleimani’s plots “might still happen.”
Army General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a small group of reporters “we fully comprehend the strategic consequences” associated with the strike against Qassem Soleimani, Tehran’s most prominent military commander.
But he said the risk of inaction exceeded the risk that killing him might dramatically escalate tensions with Tehran. “Is there risk? Damn right, there’s risk. But we’re working to mitigate it,” Milley said from his Pentagon office. (Reuters)
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This is pretty much in line with Trump’s pronouncement that our assassination of Soleimani along with Iraqi General Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was carried out to prevent a war not start one. Whatever information was presented to Trump painted a picture of imminent danger in his mind. What did the Pentagon see that was so imminent?
Well first let’s look at the mindset of the Pentagon concerning our presence in Iraq and Syria. These two recent quotes from Brett McGurk sums up that mindset.
"If we leave Iraq, that will just increase further the running room for Iran and Shia militia groups and also the vacuum that will see groups like ISIS fill and we'll be right back to where we were. So that would be a disaster."
"It's always been Soleimani's strategic game... to get us out of the Middle East. He wants to see us leave Syria, he wants to see us leave Iraq... I think if we leave Iraq after this, that would just be a real disastrous outcome..."
McGurk played a visible role in US policy in Iraq and Syria under Bush, Obama and Trump. Now he’s an NBC talking head and a lecturer at Stanford. He could be the poster boy for what many see as a neocon deep state. He’s definitely not alone in thinking this way.
So back to the question of what was the imminent threat. Reuters offers an elaborate story of a secret meeting of PMU commanders with Soleimani on a rooftop terrace on the Tigris with a grand view of the US Embassy on the far side of the river.
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“In mid-October, Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani met with his Iraqi Shi’ite militia allies at a villa on the banks of the Tigris River, looking across at the U.S. embassy complex in Baghdad, and instructed them to step up attacks on U.S. targets in the country”
“Two militia commanders and two security sources briefed on the gathering told Reuters that Soleimani instructed his top ally in Iraq, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and other powerful militia leaders to step up attacks on US targets using sophisticated new weapons provided by Iran.”
“Soleimani’s plans to attack US forces aimed to provoke a military response that would redirect Iraqis' anger towards Iran to the US, according to the sources briefed on the gathering, Iraqi Shi’ite politicians and government officials close to Iraq PM Adel Abdul Mahdi.”
“At the Baghdad villa, Soleimani told the assembled commanders to form a new militia group of low-profile paramilitaries - unknown to the United States - who could carry out rocket attacks on Americans housed at Iraqi military bases.” (Reuters)
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And what were those sophisticated new weapons provided by Iran? They were 1960s Chinese designed 107mm multiple rocket launcher technology. These simple but effective rocket launchers were mass produced by the Soviet Union, Iran, Turkey and Sudan in addition to China. They’ve been used in every conflict since then. The one captured outside of the K1 military base seems to be locally fabricated, but used Iranian manufactured rockets.
Since when does the PMU have to form another low profile militia unit? The PMU is already composed of so many militia units it’s difficult to keep track of them. There’s also nothing low profile about the Kata’ib Hizbollah, the rumored perpetrators of the K1 rocket attack. They’re as high profile as they come.
Perhaps there’s something to this Reuters story, but to me it sounds like another shithouse rumor. It would make a great scene in a James Bond movie, but it still sounds like a rumor.
There’s another story put out by The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Although it also sounds like a scene form a James Bond movie, I think it sounds more convincing than the Reuters story.
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Delegation of Arab tribes met with “Soleimani” at the invitation of “Tehran” to carry out attacks against U.S. Forces east Euphrates
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights learned that a delegation of the Arab tribes met on the 26th of December 2019, with the goal of directing and uniting forces against U.S. Forces, and according to the Syrian Observatory’s sources, that meeting took place with the commander of the al-Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassim Soleimani, who was assassinated this morning in a U.S. raid on his convoy in Iraq. the sources reported that: “the invitation came at the official invitation of Tehran, where Iran invited Faisal al-al-Aazil, one of the elders of al-Ma’amra clan, in addition to the representative of al-Bo Asi clan the commander of NDF headquarters in Qamishli Khatib al-Tieb, and the Sheikh of al-Sharayin, Nawaf al-Bashar, the Sheikh of Harb clan, Mahmoud Mansour al-Akoub, ” adding that: “the meeting discussed carrying out attacks against the American forces and the Syria Democratic Forces.”
Earlier, the head of the Syrian National Security Bureau, Ali Mamlouk, met with the security committee and about 20 Arab tribal elders and Sheikhs in al-Hasakah, at Qamishli Airport Hall on the 5th of December 2019, where he demanded the Arab tribes to withdraw their sons from the ranks of the Syria Democratic Forces. (SOHR)
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I certainly don’t automatically give credence to anything Rami sends out of his house in Coventry. I give this story more credibility only because that is exactly what I would do if Syria east of the the Euphrates was my UWOA (unconventional warfare operational area). This is exactly how I would go about ridding the area of the “Great Satan” invaders and making Syria whole again. The story also includes a lot of named individuals. This can be checked. This morning Colonel Lang told me some tribes in that region have a Shia history. Perhaps he can elaborate on that. I’ve read in several places that Qassim Soleimani knew the tribes in Syria and Iraq like the back of his hand. This SOHR story makes sense. If Soleimani was working with the tribes of eastern Syria like he worked with the tribes and militias of Iraq to create the al-Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbi, it no doubt scared the bejeezus out of the Pentagon and endangered their designs for Iraq and Syria.
So, Qassim Soleimani, the Iranian soldier, the competent and patient Iranian soldier, was a threat to the Pentagon’s designs… a serious threat. But he was a long term threat, not an imminent threat. And he was just one soldier.The threat is systemic and remains. The question of why, in the minds of Trump and his generals, Soleimani had to die this week is something I will leave for my next post.
A side note on Milley: Whenever I see a photo of him, I am reminded of my old Brigade Commander in the 25th Infantry Division, Colonel Nathan Vail. They both have the countenance of a snapping turtle. One of the rehab transfers in my rifle platoon once referred to him as “that J. Edgar Hoover looking mutha fuka.” I had to bite my tongue to keep from breaking out in laughter. It would have been unseemly for a second lieutenant to openly enjoy such disrespect by a PV2… and a troublemaking PV2 at that. God bless PV2 Webster, where ever you are.
TTG
02 January 2020
"Latest situation in foreign forces deployment in Syria" Yeni Safak
"The U.S. forces evacuated 16 bases and military posts during Operation Peace Spring and returned to six bases as the operation was paused.
The U.S. army strengthened its military presence in Syria’s northeastern border and oil fields.
With five bases and military posts in Hasakah province, the U.S. forces are conducting efforts to set up two other military posts in Qahtaniyah town and Himo village in Qamishli city.
The U.S. aims to both secure oil fields in Hasakah and strengthen its presence on the Turkish border with the military posts.
The U.S. forces are currently deployed at 11 bases and military posts, including five in Hasakah, four in Deir ez-Zor and two in Raqqa.
They also carry out efforts to set up two new bases in Deir ez-Zor." Yebi Safak
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Yes, this newspaper is pro-Erdo but this looks like a useful map to lay out where everyone is at present. The map does not extend far enough south to include the US roadblocking position at Al Tanf on the Syrian/Iraqi border but other than that- pretty complete. pl
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/latest-situation-in-foreign-forces-deployment-in-syria-3507700
28 December 2019
Idlib battle footage - TTG
ANNA News has some excellent footage of recent combat in Idlib. It shows some 25th Special Mission Forces Division units on the attack. You get a good feel for the nature of the combat with small, combined arms units operating over fairly open terrain. Note the centrality of light infantry even in what can be best considered tank country. Note that this light infantry is unburdened by a 100 pounds of high speed gear, body armor or even helmets. I can relate to that. Note also the extensive jihadi trench works and underground shelters facing that light infantry. The 25th makes good use of various direct fire supporting weapons as well as artillery and aerial support.
Bad weather is grounding/limiting Russian and Syrian air support for a few days. The 25th has paused their offensive while it rests and resupplies before continuing their attacks. The 5th Corps and Liwa Al Quds are keeping the pressure on the jihadis. The SAA goal is to take both Ma’arat Al-Nu’man and Saraqib to the north. Saraqib is at the critical junction of the M4 and M5 highways.
TTG
23 December 2019
SAA at the gates of Ma’arat Al-Nu’man - TTG
BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:20 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) continued their advance in the southeastern countryside of the Idlib Governorate this evening, as their troops seized more ground from the jihadist rebels. Led by the 25th Special Mission Forces Division (formerly Tiger Forces), the Syrian Arab Army has announced the capture of Al-Ghadfah after advancing north of Jarjanaz and east of Khirbat Ma’ratah in southeastern Idlib.
At the same time, the Syrian Army’s 5th Corps is still pushing northwest towards the Idlib-Hama Highway as they look to isolate another Turkish observation post in the Idlib Governorate.
As a result of these latest advances, the Syrian Arab Army now finds themselves approaching the gates of Ma’arat Al-Nu’man, which is a major city along the Idlib-Hama Highway.
In the coming hours, the Syrian Arab Army will attempt to capture the last remaining towns and villages under militant control before they begin the encirclement of Ma’arat Al-Nu’man. (Al Masdar News)
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The SAA has been preparing for an offensive to take Ma’arat Al-Nu’man for several weeks at least. In addition to the 25th Division, the 5th Corps and Liwaa Al-Quds are spearheading the offensive along with a host of supporting troops and militia units. Enough mass, I believe, to sustain the offensive until victory is achieved.
Just prior to the start of the SAA offensive, the jihadis of HTS launched their own offensive, a spoiling attack. The gamble did not pay off. The jihadis were able to advance in the first few hours, but were then beaten back… badly. Jihadi losses were around two hundred KIA/WIA along with a lot of equipment. These losses left the jihadis ill prepared to face the SAA offensive. Jihadi defensive positions, already shattered by weeks of aerial and artillery bombardment, fell quickly all along the front. In four days of fighting, the SAA took 35 towns and villages.
This will be a decisive victory with Damascus regaining control over most of the M5 and a good part of Idlib governorate. The Turks will probably have to relocate two, if not three, of their OPs.
In the meantime, Christmas celebrations continue in Aleppo.
Through the efforts and sacrifices of the SAA, these scenes will one day be possible throughout Syria. FIDO, my brothers, FIDO!
TTG
https://southfront.org/russian-military-200-militants-killed-wounded-in-southern-idlib-clashes/
08 November 2019
SAA/SDF cooperation against Turks is working
"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) entered late on November 7 new villages in northern al-Hasakah, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).
“Syrian Arab Army units widen their deployment in the villages of Umm Shuaiyfah, al-Faysaliyah, al-Manakh and al-Mahmoudiyah on the axis of Tell Tamr-Ras al-Ayn,” the SANA’s reporter in al-Hasakah said.
Militants of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched a large-scale attack on these villages last month, capturing most of them. Back then, the SAA was forced to withdraw from the nearby town of Tell Tamr.
The villages were recaptured by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) within a few days, with SNA militants retreating to their original positions around the border town of Ras al-Ayn.
The SAA’s deployment in these village is likely aimed at deterring Turkish-backed militants, who are still launching limited attacks in northeast Syria. Army units entered the region last month to prevent such attacks following an agreement with the SDF." sf
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SAA troops are now operating in close cooperation with the SDF Kurdish and Arab forces for the purpose of resisting the Turkish backed Syrian National Army (SNA) of jihadis. The Turkish Army stands behind the SNA and has supported them with artillery fires and air attacks but has not itself advanced beyond urban areas right on the border. Evidently the blandishments of both the Russian and US governments have kept them from trying to advance farther into Syria. This development indicates the possibility of further progress in re-uniting Syria politically.
The bizarre neocon attempt to withhold Syria's small oil deposits from the national government is bound to fail. It represents the fading effect of neocon arguments made by people like Keane and Pompeo.
Meanwhile, the R+6 continue to prep the battlefield in western Idlib and eastern Latakia for a renewal of the effort to recover that territory for the Syrian government. IMO the ground effort when it comes will be toward Jisr as-Shugur from the west and north up the Al-Ghaab Valley. pl
https://southfront.org/syrian-army-enters-new-villages-in-northern-al-hasakah/
27 October 2019
Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi Does Not Sleep with the Fishes by Larry C Johnson
What does a radical Islamic mother say to another radical Islamic mother? Children, they blow up so fast.
What a contrast with the raid that killed Bin Laden in May 2011. The Obama Administration came out with conflicting accounts and required the SEALS who carried out the attack to sign non-disclosure agreements. Why? Because the raid was conducted with the cooperation and knowledge of the Pakistani government; the SEALS faced no guard force; Bin Laden was a cripple unable to get out of bed and was shot so many times by the SEALs his body was dumped in the ocean.
Al Baghdadi? It is now clear he was protected by someone in Turkey. The Turks knew where he was and, until yesterday, kept him safe. Trump's actions over the last three weeks with respect to U.S. forces in Syria set the table for this operation. A combination of pressure and incentives confronted Turkey's President Erdogan and he rolled over.
It is telling that there was not a huge fire fight going in. Where was the Baghdadi security team? This is a further indicator that Baghdadi was betrayed by folks he thought were protecting him. Baghdadi fled his house and jumped into a tunnel.
Continue reading "Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi Does Not Sleep with the Fishes by Larry C Johnson" »
Killing Baghdadi - TTG
The first indications that something unusual was going on in Idlib was a series of tweets from @WithinSyriaBlog late last night. I saw this before I saw Trump’s tweet of “Something very big has just happened!”
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Breaking: Several attack helicopters coming from Turkey reportedly attacked several Jihadists' targets in southern Idlib.
2:41 PM - 26 Oct 2019
At first locals said that the helicopters were only flying, later several sources confirmed that they carried out attacks. Some said they responded to AA fire. However, this was also denied by locals.
Locals are saying that the helicopters are of the Turkish military. However, there is a good chance the alleged attack was carried out by US-led coalition helicopters.
Now locals are saying that the helicopters were chasing a convoy of cars, claiming at least two actually landed ... Sounds like a well-planned raid.
Summary of what is going on west the town of Barisha in northern Idlib, this thread will be updated:
2:58 PM - 26 Oct 2019
1- Eight helicopters came from the direction of Turkish border, began conducting strikes on targets west of the town of Barisha. Warplanes and UAVs are covering the helicopters.
2-Local sources denied that the helicopters carried out the strikes in response to AA fire. The attack was apparently planned, well planned.
3-At least two of the eight helicopters landed west of Barisha. However, it is unclear if a some special operation is being carried out there now.
4-Additional 4 helicopters joined the force around 15 min into the attack. At least 12 helicopters are now operating west of Barisha.
5-Local sources are talking about an operation to capture or kill a senior Jihadi figure. Unconfirmed reports says that at least one TIP militants has been killed, so far.
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This morning President Trump addressed the nation and announced the killing of Abu Bakr al—Baghdadi by US Special Operations Forces. I’m sure most of us either watched this or heard of it by now. More details will surely come out over the next few days. Hopefully not a lot more. Here’s a few details that I find interesting.
1 - A Squadron, SFOD Delta was the primary assault force. A Delta squadron consists of two assault troops and one reconnaissance troop. This may sound like a lot but in my experience a special operations squadron often consists of less than fifty troops. The operation was probably supported by some number of Rangers. That’s a common method of operation.
2 - Photos of 30mm HEDP shells from the raid area are now online. That indicates MH-60L helicopters from the 160th Special Operations Wing were providing support with their M230 chain guns.
3 - Time line for the operation was givens as one hour, ten minutes in, two hours on the ground and one hour, ten minutes out. They could have flown from Incirlik Air Force Base, but I think they flew from the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Battle Group in the Mediterranean. It would have been more secure and would account for more “nap-of-the-earth” flying time across the hills and mountains of Hatay Province.
4 - Barisha is located in Idlib Governorate north of Idlib and west of Aleppo very close to the the major crossing point into Turkey. What was Baghdadi doing there? Barisha is the headquarters of Huras Din. Huras Din was created last February, mainly from senior Non-Syrian members of Hayet Tahrir Sham, HTS (created from Al-Qaida in 2016). It was HTS that provided security for Turkey while setting up its twelve observation posts. This area is critical to both Turkey’s and the jihadi’s goal of retaining control of Idlib. Again, what was Baghdadi doing there?
5 - Vice President Pence said this morning that we had intelligence of Baghdadi’s location earlier last week and more a specific location only Saturday morning. Did Turkey provide this information? I doubt it. Russia and the SAA have been running reconnaissance and spying missions throughout Idlib for quite a while. Between those missions and R+6 SIGINT, I think Russia provided critical information to USI in the lead up to this raid. The coordination between the US and Russia was probably a lot more that just informing them that we were coming in as Trump said in his address this morning.
This is a good day for America, a good day for President Trump and a good day for the R+6. I also think it's a bad day for the jihadis and Turkey. As I said, a lot more will come out in the coming days. Actually, a lot more is already out there. But this is enough for now.
TTG
23 October 2019
"Joltin'" Jack Keane wants your kids to fight Russia and Syria over Syrian oil.
"Joltin" Jack Keane, General (ret.), Fox Business Senior Strategery Analyst, Chairman of the Board of the Kagan run neocon "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) and Graduate Extraordinaire of Fordham University, was on with Lou Dobbs last night. Dobbs appears to have developed a deep suspicion of this paladin. He stood up to Keane remarkably well. This was refreshing in light of the fawning deference paid to Keane by all the rest of the Fox crew.
In the course of this dialogue Keane let slip the slightly disguised truth that he and the other warmongers want to keep something like 200 US soldiers and airmen in Syria east of the Euphrates so that they can keep Iran or any other "Iranian proxy forces" from crossing the Euphrates from SAG controlled territory to take control of Syrian sovereign territory and the oil and gas deposits that are rightly the property of the Syrian people and their government owned oil company. The map above shows how many of these resources are east of the Euphrates. Pilgrims! It is not a lot of oil and gas judged by global needs and markets, but to Syria and its prospects for reconstruction it is a hell of a lot!
Keane was clear that what he means by "Iranian proxy forces" is the Syrian Arab Army, the national army of that country. If they dare cross the river, to rest in the shade of their own palm trees, then in his opinion the air forces of FUKUS should attack them and any 3rd party air forces (Russia) who support them
This morning, on said Fox Business News with Charles Payne, Keane was even clearer and stated specifically that if "Syria" tries to cross the river they must be fought.
IMO he and Lindsey Graham are raving lunatics brainwashed for years with the Iran obsession and they are a danger to us all. pl
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/graham-fox-news-star-showed-trump-map-change-his-mind-n1069901
22 October 2019
The new reality in Rojava - TTG
Rojava is dead. Long live the Syrian Arab Republic. The new Russia-Turkish agreement goes a long way in reestablishing Syria’s territorial integrity and foiling Erdogan’s dream of a new Ottoman Empire. It also provides the Rojava Kurds their best hope for a future whether they realize it or not. First, here’s the agreement.
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President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President of The Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin agreed on the following points:
1. The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of Turkey.
2. They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.
3. In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and Ras Al Ayn with a depth of 32 km will be preserved.
4. Both sides reaffirm the importance of the Adana Agreement. The Russian Federation will facilitate the implementation of the Adana Agreement in the current circumstances.
5. Starting 12.00 noon of October 23, 2019, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will enter the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border, outside the area of Operation Peace Spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border, which should be finalized in 150 hours. At that moment, joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10 km, except Qamishli city.
6. All YPG elements and their weapons will be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat.
7. Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltrations of terrorist elements.
8. Joint efforts will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and voluntary manner.
9. A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.
10. The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict within Astana Mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional Committee.
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Why do I think this is such a good deal for Syria and the Rojava Kurds? The key is in the first two points of the agreement. The current northern border is preserved. That is a huge win for Damascus. Turkey will be sending a substantial number of Syrian refugees back south of the border to areas not now populated by Kurds. This is a major plus for Erdogan. He can claim this as a victory and save face. Both sides agree to fight terrorists. Turkey won’t fight the jihadis, but the Russians in the joint patrols sure will. And the SAA won’t let them sleep either. The jihadis will not be able to prey on the Kurds living near the border.
The YPG/SDF will be away from the border which also can be claimed as a Turkish victory. However, remember that the SAA-SDF agreement of last week calls for incorporating the YPG/SDF into the SAA 5th Assault Corps. Armed Kurds will still be among the Kurds looking out for Kurdish interests under the auspices of the SAA. That’s where the Kurds win. The SAA and Russian patrols will be be no kinder to jihadis in Rojava than they are to the Idlib jihadis.
Speaking of Idlib, it appears the offensive to reduce that jihadi salient is about to kick off. SAA units are massed in northern Latakia where Syrian and Russian air assets have been pounding the living crap out of the jihadis. President Assad visited his front line troops today. I would say things are about to get real in northern Latakia and Idlib.
TTG
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armys-idlib-offensive-to-begin-at-any-moment/
21 October 2019
US foreign policy is now based on "virtual facts."
(Munchausen)
Mika B remarked a couple of years ago on the show that she and her sex slave stage in the early morning that the social media were out of control because it is the job of the MSM to tell people what to think. The Hillary stated recently that life was better when there were only three TeeVee news outlets because it was easier to keep things under control. Now? My God! Any damned fool can propagate unauthorized "facts." What? Who?
Well, pilgrims, the US government (along with our British and Israeli helpmates and masters) are the preeminent creators and purveyors of the manufactured virtual facts on which we base our policy. These "facts" are "ginned up" in the well moneyed hidden staff groups of "hidden" candidates that are devoted to the seizure of power made possible by a deluded electorate. These "facts" are then propagated and reinforced through relentless IO campaigns run by executive "bots" in the MSM and in such remarkable and imaginative efforts as the "White Helmets" film company manned by jihadis and managed by clubby Brits left over from the Days of The Raj (sob). These "facts" are now so entrenched in the general mind that they can be used to denounce people like Rep. (major ) Gabbard as traitors because they challenge them.
Some of the "virtual facts:"
- The Soviet Union never ended. Russia is still communist and an inevitable and indeed indispensable enemy of the US. Anyone who challenges that certitude is an obvious agent of the Russian government.
- Iran is the "greatest supporter of terrorism" in the world." Iran is so designated by the State Department on the annual list of terrorism supporting states which asserts this to be true on the basis of Iranian support of Lebanese Hizbullah and Palestinian Hamas, calling them "terrorist" groups rather than anti -Israeli nationalist resistance organizations. This Zionist inspired propaganda is spread far and wide by neocon "useful idiots" like Maria Bartiromo and Jesse Watters.
- The Syrian Arab Government is an abomination on the scale of Nazi Germany and must be destroyed and replaced by God knows what ... "They gassed their own people!" Bullshit! There is no objective evidence for that. There are nothing but propaganda statements by the FUKUS governments unsupported by any real evidence. The MI-6 funded (with USAID money) Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (located in a basement in England) as well as the White Helmets murder/propaganda operation states that the SAG is guilty as charged but independent investigation says that assertions of SAG guilt are untrue.
- Saudi Arabia is a deeply friendly state and ally of the US. How mad an idea is this! This theocratic, absolute monarchy is a friend of the US? How insane an idea! Trump has a balance sheet where a soul should be and that is the basis for the belief that MBS and/or his "country" are our friends. pl
18 October 2019
A State Department map helps to locate recent areas of conflict in Syria
By Robert Willmann
To help visualize where recent events regarding the ongoing conflict in Syria are happening, here is a map from the State Department showing some of the provinces and towns in northern Syria where its border with Turkey is. The map, which can be downloaded, also shows some border crossings according to the map legend, although not all of them have been given a name.
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/syria_snapshot_2018oct01_hiu.pdf
The map is from the Humanitarian Information Unit (HIU), which is part of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research [1].
Going from west to east in northern Syria, the provinces (or governates) that are shown are Latakia, Idlib, Aleppo, Ar Raqqah, and Al Hasakah.
Towns that have been mentioned include Ra's al ‘Ayn in the Al Hasakah province in northeastern Syria. Kobane ('Ayn al Arab) is more in the center on the border with Turkey. Tal Abyad would be further to the east in the Ar Raqqah province. Latakia is in the far northwest by the Mediterranean Sea. You can also see the Euphrates River running from the north central part of Syria to the southeast.
These areas and towns were referenced yesterday in the article by TTG.
The map is called a "Regional Displacement Snapshot" as of the end of September 2018, regarding refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). It also shows some refugee camps.
[1] https://www.state.gov/key-topics-bureau-of-intelligence-and-research/
https://www.hiu.state.gov/products/
17 October 2019
Brief Update on the Border Situation - TTG
Much has been made of the 120 hour truce supposedly negotiated by Pence and Erdogan. The “negotiation” called for the SDF to pull all its force back from the border. As I told Elaine earlier today, whatever Pence and Erdogan agreed to has no effect on the YPG, the SAA or the Russians. For that matter, it has little effect on the jihadis, either. The SAA has taken over the Kobani border post and have started to move heavy weapons into the area. The dog and pony show in Ankara means nothing… except for possibly assuaging Trump’s ego over his recent goat roping with Erdogan. I believe the true target of this ceasefire announcement is the US Congress which is about to impose sanctions on Turkey.
The SAA deployment to the border is continuing. At the same time, Russian and Syrian strikes on jihadi position in Latakia are intensifying in preparation for resuming the offensive on that front. In the meantime, the jihadis are bound to make some more temporary advances east of the Euphrates. All in good time, my friends, all in good time.
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BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:00 A.M.) – The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have once again fended off a powerful attack by the Turkish-backed militants at the key border city of Ras Al-‘Ayn in northwestern Al-Hasakah. Backed by heavy airstrikes from the Turkish Air Force, the so-called “Syrian National Army” attempted to advance from the western districts of Ras Al-‘Ayn towards the city-center; however, they were unable to crack the SDF’s lines. According to a report from northern Al-Hasakah, the Syrian Democratic Forces were able to foil the militant advance, while also inflicting heavy casualties within the ranks of the Turkish-backed militants.
While the Turkish-backed militants were able to advance at Tal Abyad in Al-Raqqa, their offensive at Ras Al-‘Ayn has been plagued with heavy losses in personnel and very litle progress inside the city.
Since establishing their military cooperation agreement with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in northern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces have been able to free up several units and redeploy them to the Ras Al-‘Ayn front. This has been incredibly important for the SDF, as they have been able to reinforce their front-lines at Ras Al-‘Ayn and its surroundings. (Al Masdar News)
TTG
13 October 2019
Jubilation! - TTG
Damascus is on her way in achieving her ultimate goal of regaining control over all her territory and achieving peace thanks to VV Putin and the welcome and necessary assistance of DJ Trump. There’s no other way to put it. Elijah Magnier has summarized the current situation in a series of tweets this afternoon. If his summary is accurate, it is indeed good news.
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The Syrian Army is in Manbij now. Another Syrian Army force heading towards the Turkish advance supported by Syrian Kurds.
It only needed the announcement of the US withdrawal to put the end of the war in Syria on a fast track in no time.
Kurds agreed on all requested points by Damascus and Russia is the guarantor. Kurds have become part of the Syrian security allied forces. The Syrian Army agreed to take in hand all ISIS prisoners, families and those on the run. Europe will have to deal with Damascus now.
Breaking news: Syrian Army forces prepared to take control of Ayn al-Arab this evening.
FYI: SAA maintains forces in Qamishli along with some allies.
This situation - the withdrawal of US forces and its behaviour with Kurds after years of battles on the ground - will tremendously help Russia in confirming its credibility and commitment toward its allies and truthful partnership as a substitute to the untrustworthy US.
Important: The advance of the Syrian Army doesn't mean a clash with the Turkish forces. Russia is reaching a comprehensive agreement with Turkey and Damascus to halt the military operation as soon as possible.
The main target is reached: the US forces out of Syria. Turkey feared a well-armed and powerful YPG, the PKK Syrian branch, previously supplied/protected by the US. Now that the US is pulling out, Damascus shall not allow any attack or threat against Turkey and won't accept an independent Rojava. Adana agreement is back on track
————
The SAA has just moved into Tabqa airbase. “The Self-Administration of Northeast release[d] a statement that they call on Syrian army to protect the country's borders and preserve Syrian sovereignty & support SDF to repel Turkish aggression and liberate areas occupied by "Turkish army and its hired mercenaries" (from Wladimir Wilgenburg). My guess, though, is that the SDF will very soon cease to exist. Those forces will be integrated directly into the SAA or become NDF auxiliaries. The Kurds will not get their semi-autonomous Rojava, but they will be alive, living in their ancestral lands and under Damascus’ governance.
Neocons throughout the world will wail in the darkness and gnash their teeth. They will still blame Trump for “losing Syria.” But take it from me, someone who has absolutely no respect for the man, Trump done good. His willingness to work with Putin is making Syria a better place. Putin could not have orchestrated this without Trump’s willingness (or boldness) to buck the entire USG. Good on him for this one, even if he may not have been aware of exactly what he did. He can chalk this up as a victory for the American people.
Even with this momentous turn of events, the SAA and Russia are not forgetting Idlib. Today a flight of eight Syrian attack helicopters tore the jihadis a new one outside Kabani. Russian Aerospace Forces also hit the area. This is in preparation for a renewed push in Latakia.
The photo at the top of this post is labeled Celebrations in Qamishli and Hasaka. People celebrating the "start of the deployment of the Syrian army to confront Turkish aggression". I think we should celebrate as well. I’m sure we’ll hear a lot more tomorrow.
TTG
Kurds and SAG reach agreement to fight Turks
- The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reportedly reached an agreement with Damascus on the situation in northern Syria;
- The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) started entering the SDF-held area around Manbij. SAA units will reportedly enter Kabani and move further;
- Turkey-led forces develop their advance despite the SDF-Damascus agreement. SF
--------------
It seems that part of the "art of the deal" is to place people in a position where not making a deal bears unacceptable consequences. As one of us wrote, the Borg (foreign policy establishment) and Lindsey Graham must be tearing their hair out and rending their garments.
I leave it to TTG to comment in detail. pl
https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-northern-syria-after-sdf-damascus-deal-map-update/
09 October 2019
BOHICA Update - TTG
This is a report from Jennifer Griffin, national security correspondent for Fox News, after a phone conversation with an SF soldier in Syria. She filed the report by Twitter within the last two hours.
I just spoke to a distraught US Special Forces soldier who is among the 1000 or so US troops in Syria tonight who is serving alongside the SDF Kurdish forces. It was one of the hardest phone calls I have ever taken.
"I am ashamed for the first time in my career."
This veteran US Special forces soldier has trained indigenous forces on multiple continents. He is on the frontlines tonight and said they are witnessing Turkish atrocities.
"Turkey is not doing what it agreed to. It's horrible," this military source on the ground told me. "We met every single security agreement. The Kurds met every single agreement. There was NO threat to the Turks - NONE - from this side of the border." "This is insanity," the concerned US service member told me. ""I don't know what they call atrocities but they are happening."
This American soldier told me the Kurds have not left their positions guarding the ISIS prisoners. In fact "they prevented a prison break last night without us."
"They are not abandoning our side (yet)."
The Kurds are "pleading for our support." We are doing "nothing."
Troops on the ground in Syria and their commanders were "surprised" by the decision Sunday night. Of the President's decision: "He doesn't understand the problem. He doesn't understand the repercussions of this. Erdogan is an Islamist, not a level headed actor."
This US Special Forces soldier wanted me to know: "The Kurds are sticking by us. No other partner I have ever dealt with would stand by us."
Disappointed in the decisions coming from their senior leaders.
--------
So what is happening on this opening day of Erdogan's Operation PeaceSpring? Turkey has launched air strikes and artillery barrages on Kurdish military and civilian targets along the entire border east of the Euphrates. The Rojava Information Center reported earlier today:
- 7 serious injuries (two of them female) to adults
- 4 children injured (between 2-6 years old), at least 2 dead
- Hospital in Sere Kaniye is bombed out of service
- Largest Christian neighborhood (Bisheriya) in NE Syria was bombarded, 2 civilians died
Erdogan's jihadi auxiliaries have crossed the border and IS sleeper cells have attacked in Raqqa. The YPG repelled at least one assault on Tal Abyad and destroyed a small Turkish outpost west of Kobani. The YPG has ceased all anti IS operations to deal with this new invasion. This is just the beginning of what will be a long, sad story.
Turkey has coordinated its strikes with Russia. We have no idea what was agreed to by these two. Qatar had voiced support for Erdogan's move. Saudi Arabia, surprisingly, has condemned it. Damascus, obviously, has also condemned it, but puts at least some of the blame on the intransigence of the Kurds. My guess is that SAA and Russian forces will cross the Euphrates to prevent Turkish and jihadi forces from retaking any oilfields. Seems the next phase of Operation Idlib Dawn will have to wait. Whether the SAA will end up fighting side by side with the YPG against Erdogan's jihadis or even Erdogan's troops is anybody's guess at this point. Stay tuned.
TTG
Turkey Double Talks Its Way Into Northeastern Syria by Willy B
The Turks have now launched their long threatened military operation in northeast Syria, under the Orwellian name of "Operation Peace Spring." "Our mission is to prevent the creation of a terror corridor across our southern border, and to bring peace to the area," said Erdogan today. Up through today, the Turks were working overtime to get international support for their planned military operation and plans for resettling up to two million Syrian refugees in the so-called safe zone they intend to create but it all seems to me to be so much double talk, so full of obvious contradictions as it is. The most obvious one is in almost every Turkish statement about Syria, the claim that Turkey respects Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity. How can that be when prior to today, Turkey had already conducted two military cross border military operations in northern Aleppo province west of the Euphrates in violation of Syrian sovereignty, still occupies those areas and is, in the process, continuing to support armed groups that wish for the violent overthrow of the government in Damascus? Those with more expertise than I have will point to Erdogan's Ottoman ambitions for Turkey as a major motivator of his actions in Syria.
Turkish government spokesman Fahrettin Altun, in an op-ed published in the Washington Post late yesterday, claimed that during his phone call with Erdogan on Sunday, Trump agreed to transfer the leadership of the counter-Islamic State campaign to Turkey. He further claimed that "Turkey has no ambition in northeastern Syria except to neutralize a long-standing threat against Turkish citizens and to liberate the local population from the yoke of armed thugs."
Even more dubious is Altun's claim that Turkey "was the first country to deploy combat forces to fight the terrorists in Syria. Our country also helped the Free Syrian Army keep thousands of Islamic State militants behind bars for years." Erdogan and his AKP loyalists should be reminded that Turkey played a huge role in the cancerous growth of ISIS in Syria in 2015-2016 by allowing itself to be used as a corridor for the flow of foreign fighters into Syria, by providing a logistics base that kept ISIS well supplied with weapons, ammunition and other equipment, and serving as the market for oil that ISIS was smuggling out of Syria (an operation which was largely, and very visibly, destroyed by the Russians).
"It remains to be seen whether YPG militants will agree to the change in the campaign's leadership," Altun droned on. "Indeed, they have two options: If they are genuinely interested in fighting Islamic State, they can defect without delay. Or they can listen to their commanders, who say that they will fight the Turkish forces — in which case we will have no choice but to stop them from disrupting our counter-Islamic State efforts." This suggests that the Turks are saying that they're really going in to fight ISIS and will only fight the Kurds if they get in the way. The evidence of the last few years, however, suggests that Turkey's interest in fighting ISIS has been marginal at best while their focus has been mainly on the PYD/YPG and its alliance with the U.S. military. There is very little evidence, if any at all, of cross border terrorist attacks inside Turkey carried out by the PYD, though ISIS when it still control a large portion of Syria carried out several very large attacks in Istanbul and other cities in western Turkey.
Ibrahim Kalin, whose role as the face of Turkey and the AKP is second only to that of Erdogan himself, told CNN that Turkey is not occupying any part of Syria and has no desire to do so. "Turkey has no interest in occupying any part of Syria. We haven't done so in Jarablus when we fought against Daesh and eliminated 3,000 terrorists there," Kalin said, and continued: "Or when we entered Afrin, we have not occupied any part of Syria, we have returned those places to the local owners and residents, we have no intention of occupying any parts of Syria in the east of the Euphrates either, and also we have no interest in changing the demographics there." All the reports I've seen certainly indicate that the Turks are indeed in full control of Afrin and northern Aleppo, even if through Syrian Arab proxies. They likely intended to do the same thing east of the Euphrates except on a larger scale.
When asked about whether or not the Turkish resettlement plan will change the demographics, Kalin claimed that the PYD/YPG had already done that (and this may have some truth to it but it doesn't excuse the Turks). "It was the PKK/PYD that has changed the demographics there. The refugees in Turkey, which is about 3.5 million from Syria, will go back to the places where they have come from. We are not forcing anybody to go anywhere they don't want to go," he added. Again, my understanding is that most of the refugees in Turkey came from the western half of the country, the region ranging from Aleppo through Hama to Damascus. This is what has been asserted in critiques of the Turkish resettlement plan that I've seen.
07 October 2019
Headline! "Trump betrays Kurds!" It's what we do!
"U.S. troops have begun pulling out of positions in northern Syria, The Associated Press reported on Monday, citing U.S.-backed Kurdish forces.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also reportedly said American troops have started to withdraw from the area.
The White House announced late Sunday that Turkey will soon be launching a military operation in the region and that U.S. troops will no longer be “in the immediate area” when it happens.
The Kurdish-led forces denounced the move as a “stab in the back," according to Reuters.
“We are hoping for the best but preparing for the worst,” Panos Moumtis, the U.N. regional humanitarian coordinator for the Syria crisis, told reporters in Geneva, the news service noted.
The U.S. had more than 1,000 troops deployed in northern Syria, working closely with the Kurdish-led forces. " The Hill
--------------
AND ... Turkey will henceforth hold and deal with IS and AQ prisoners. Erdogan does not want these rival Islamists wandering around, so ... his "dealing" with them is going to be strenuous from their point of view. Good!
And then, pilgrims, the US has a long history of betraying warfighting allies when they are no longer needed or useful . The Apache Scouts in the Geronimo War come to mind. As soon as Geronimo and his unmerry men were in the bag, the US disarmed and arrested its own Indian scouts and shipped them to the same prison camp in Florida that Geronimo's men were held in.
And, throughout my life of service I have seen this tendency on our part displayed many times. The most spectacular was, of course, our abandonment of the Republic of Vietnam. Another triumph for the US Congress!
IMO this decision is a specific rejection by Trump of the advice of the neocons led by Pompeo and L. Graham as well as the habit and inertia opinion of the Borg (the foreign policy establishment).
This is Trump being Trump. pl
BOHICA! - TTG
The Rojava Kurds should have seen this coming. The US has a long standing tradition of abandoning Kurds. The abandonment is not the worst part of this policy decision. It is the decision to turn over the jihadis captured by US, YPG and SDF forces over the last few years to Turkey... just in time for Erdogan's announced invasion of northeast Syria. Those jihadis will be rearmed and sent into battle across northern Syria, including Idlib, by Erdogan. Ah, the dreams of a neo-Ottoman Empire are coming into focus.
It appears Fox News, the neocons and the old lady from South Carolina were blindsided by this move.
And while news of the U.S. pullout stunned Syrian Kurds, the announcement also "completely blindsided" top brass at the Pentagon, U.S. officials told Fox News.
Aside from the existential threat to the Kurdish fighters posed by Turkey, Syrian Kurdish forces are also warning that ISIS sleeper cells are actively plotting to free about 12,000 militants currently detained by the Kurds and may take advantage of the Turkey-triggered turmoil to aid their plans.
Those in custody include about 2,500 foreign fighters from Europe and elsewhere whose native countries have been reluctant to take them back — and about 10,000 other captured fighters from Syria and Iraq. (Fox News)
It is too bad Trump allowed himself to be talked out of leaving Syria back at the beginning of his term. That would have given the Kurds the incentive to make peace with Damascus and left a united R+6 in a better position to take on the jihadis and keep the Turks at bay. Trump's rationale of "withdrawing America from an endless war that does not serve US interests" is reasonable and worthy. But his timing is terrible, even characteristically cruel. Worse yet, he still plans on keeping the troops in Syria, just out of the way of the coming Turkish invasion. It's the worst of both worlds for everyone except Erdogan.
On a personal note, I find the treachery of this move to be shameful and abhorrent, not unexpected or without reason, but shameful and abhorrent. My 10th Group coin was vibrating in rage on the nightstand.
TTG
https://www.foxnews.com/world/turkey-syria-isis-mass-prison-break-us-withdrawal
06 September 2019
Does Trump believe what he says about Syria? - Opinion
Why does Donald Trump say the things he does about Syria and its government?
He insists that the SAG attacks its people with chemical weapons when such attacks have never been proven. They have only been asserted by opponents of the government and in fact there exists a lot of evidence that these attacks have been staged by information operations projects like the White Helmets film production group with the surreptitious backing of a network of covert action people within the the UK government and money from USAID.
He insists that the jihadi defenders of their lodgement in Idlib Province are somehow worthy of American protection when in fact they are the same breed of salafi takfiri fanatics that he boasts of having defeated in the "caliphate."
He insists that the SAA and its allies are in the process of massacring the civilian population of Idlib Province when in fact the opposite is true. Is it not clear that the usual blizzard of anti-government propaganda has been generated solely because the SAA is winning the day in Idlib Province?
He seems oblivious or indifferent to the fact that the Syrian Government are the protectors of the Christian and other minorities in the country. Is he not a Christian?
His positions seem to imitate precisely the attitude of the the Israeli Likud run government and its closest US supporters like Sheldon Adelson, the casino man. These forces have made it clear that they prefer that Syria be made into a Hobbesian maelstrom in which many small groups fight among themselves forever rather than that the present multi-confessional government should survive.
Where does Trump get such ideas? Is it from his addiction to Fox News personalities like Jack Keane, Lou Dobbs, Brian Kilmeade and Sean Hannity? These are people who collectively have no real understanding of the realities of the Middle East but they all have a lot of opinions seemingly based on free floating hostility toward anything in the world that does not serve their hyper-nationalism.
Is it the Turks who tell him such self serving untruths? Is it not clear that Erdogan and company are intent on splitting off parts of Syria for future annexation?
Do CIA, DIA, State INR and the rest of the IC also feed him such nonsense? The analysts must know the truth if they are not swept up in massive group think. Perhaps their leaders are simply afraid to tell him the truth in the face of the opposition of people like Jared Kushner and his allies in Bolton's NSC staff.
I support many of Trump's positions with regard to the economy, immigration and his trade struggle with China. I may even vote for him considering the choices likely to be advanced by the Democrats but I am at a loss to understand why he claims to believe his own foolish statements about Syria. pl
30 August 2019
Another Operation Idlib Dawn Update - TTG
Things have been going swimmingly for the SAA for the last couple of weeks. Initial SAA operations were characterized by slow going with jihadi counterattacks often succeeding. This was to be expected. The jihadis have been concentrating in the Idlib area for years, replenishing, refitting and preparing defenses. SAA operations were frequently halted by unexplainable ceasefires. But the combined air attacks by Syrian and Russian air assets and SAA indirect fire finally took their toll on the jihadis. The result was the encirclement of Khan Sheikhoun and all the jihadis south of there. The resulting cauldron was quickly reduced leaving the Turkish observation post at Morek surrounded by SAA and Russian troops. I bet the Turks feel silly sitting there. Operation Idlib Dawn continues.
—————
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies have secured the key town of al-Tamanah in the southeastern countryside of Idlib. In the early hours of August 30, the army was able to besiege the remaining militants inside the town after capturing the northeastern hill of Soukaiyate and the northwestern hill of Sidi Ali. After securing the town, the SAA began a new push in the western direction, capturing the hilltops of Jabal Saghir, Turki and Sidi Jaffar.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the al-Qaeda-affiliated Wa Harid al-Muminin operations room and the Turkish-backed National Front for Liberation (NFL) attempted to hold onto their positions in al-Tamanah and its surroundings with their full strengths.
Pro-government sources are now claiming that the SAA will continue its operation and advance towards the city of Ma`arat al-Nu`man. However, this is yet to be confirmed. (South Front)
—————
Al Tamanah lies about six miles east of Khan Shaikhoun. Its capture by the SAA secures the recent gains spearheaded by the Tiger Force or I should say the SAA’s new 25th Special Forces Division as the Tiger Force is now called. As part of the new name, the 25th is now fully integrated into the SAA command rather than being a militia force affiliated with Syrian Air Force Intelligence. This is a wise move undoubtedly orchestrated by the Russian advisors. There is no change in leadership within the 25th and probably no major organizational changes. What this does is normalize the Tiger Force and improve command/control and logistical support.
The real question is what’s next for Operation Idlib Dawn. Will the SAA move to take Kabani and the al Ghaab Plain or will the 25th Division spearhead a drive up the M5 to Ma`arat al-Nu`man? I don’t know and neither do the jihadis. That’s the way it should be. Slap a violent surprise on those sons of bitches.
Today the Russian Reconciliation Center announced another one sided ceasefire. These are exasperating to this observer. However, there may be a good reason for this. The Khan Sheikhoun cauldron collapsed quickly, perhaps too quickly. I saw no reports of jihadis streaming northward to avoid the encirclement. Perhaps they went to ground in tunnels, caves and among the locals. This hidden enemy must be dug out and exterminated in order to eliminate the possibility of an ugly surprise when the SAA does move north to liberate more of Idlib governorate.
I hope the SAA doesn’t move too cautiously, though. The jihadi defenses appear to be rapidly collapsing and their ability to counterattack appears to be near gone. The SAA should not allow them to recover once again. Fortune favors the bold.
TTG
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tiger-forces-renamed-and-placed-under-command-of-syrian-army/
14 August 2019
Operation Idlib Dawn Update - TTG
BEIRUT, LEBANON (7:00 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) scored a big advance in the southwestern countryside of the Idlib Governorate this past weekend. Led by the Tiger Forces, the Syrian military meticulously advanced along the Hama-Idlib axis over the weekend, seizing one site after another from the militants.
This advance by the Syrian Arab Army eventually led to the capture of Al-Hobeit in southwestern Idlib, marking the first time that they have established a foothold in this part of the governorate since 2014.
In the Anna News video below, the Syrian Arab Army’s operation is chronicled from its start to its conclusion: (Al Masdar News)
—————
Yes, the SAA’s strategy of careful conservation of their forces while pressuring the jihadis with a mixture of surprise maneuvers, persistence and the application of massive, precision firepower is bearing fruit. The Anna News video explains much of this quite well. Pay particular attention to the use of night assaults and long range precision sniping with T-72 and T-90 tanks equipped with thermal imaging sights. Air and artillery precision strikes are aided by aerial drones. As far back as the mid-70s, the Benning School for Boys taught us that if you can be seen, you can be killed. We learned to make use of “the minute folds in the terrain” as cover and concealment to keep our light infantry asses from being blown off. You can see the SAA infantrymen doing the same thing. “Those are regulars, by God!”
This victory is more than just another town in Idlib. It is of great military significance. As someone mentioned in the video, Khan Sheikhoun and the M5 is within sight of al Hobeit at a distance of eight kilometers. How confident are the Syrians that they can keep this town? On August 12 the Syrian Defense Minister visited al Hobeit. That’s confidence.
The jihadis in Khan Sheikhoun not only have to sweat the Tiger Force at al Hobeit, they face a similar threat to their east. In a surprise assault, the SAA took the high ground of Tal Sukayk and the town of Sukayk capturing large quantity of jihadi arms and ammunition in the process. These SAA forces are now ten kilometers from Khan Sheikhoun. A massive jihadi counterattack on Tal Sukayk was repelled with massive losses to the jihadis in both men and equipment. The SAA is moving more forces into both these fronts. The goal appears to be an envelopment of Khan Sheikhoun from the east and west isolating a cauldron of jihadis in their strongholds of Latamanah and Morek. The jihadis have two choices. Either die in place without Turkish resupply or have the living Jesus knocked out of them by Syrian and Russian air assets as they evacuate through Khan Sheikhoun.
This is not the only good news from Idlib Dawn. The 4th Armored Division is finally on the verge of entering Kabani. The 42nd Brigade has seized the entire Zuwayqat Mountains south of Kabani from the jihadis. In this battle, Russian assault helicopters, including the all weather Mi-28N attack helicopters, lead the assault in close coordination with the 42nd Brigade’s advance. The Zuwayqat Mountains and the town of Kabani overlook the entire al Ghaab Plain and the important town of Jish al Shigour. That the 42nd Brigade was able to do this after more than two months of heavy offensive operations is a testament to their discipline and professionalism.
As of this morning, the Tiger Force has advanced past al Hobeit to Kafr Ayn, Mantar and Tal Aas. They are now three kilometers from Khan Sheikhoun. I smell a bubbling cauldron forming... with a Turkish observation post inside.
TTG
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