Sic Semper Tyrannis

Operation "Borders of Hatay" Turn 3 Ending situation and "Hot Wash"

Game situation on 18 January, 2017.

1.  Following Task Force Suheil's crushing victory over advancing jihadi reinforcements on the M5 axis east of the Takhtanaz airhead,  the task force was loaded on the HETs and other trucks that had followed it and transported back through Aleppo past the Kurdish YPG  held Sheikh Maqsood neighborhood at the north end of the city and up through the Syrian Government  and Kurdish controlled territory to the north on their way to the Minagh military airfield which was in the control of the Efrin Kurds.  This cooperation was made possible by the Assad Government's indication to the Syrian Kurds that some degree of autonomy for them would be granted in a post-war Syria.  This route allowed the Suheil Task force to reach Minagh without  further fighting and casualties.  At Minagh the Suheil Force went into national and area  reserve to refit and rest.  From this position they could move in several directions to influence future outcomes. Soldiers' families have been flown to Minagh for family time.

2.  Some 5th Assault Corps units and the Syrian Marines invested Iblid City to control jihadis trapped within while negotiations are conducted for their surrender.

3. 5th Corps minus those units by-passed Idlib City to the east and relieved  Takfaya and al-Fu'a village while being supported from the Taftanaj airhead with artillery and air support to include SU-25 Frogfoot.   

4. As soon as the 5th Corps relieved the Shia pocket, the Russians launched an assault in echelon of two battalion tactical groups (BTG) from Taftanaz towards Al Dana some 30 km to the north. The high ground along the Bab al-Hawa Highway just south of Al Dana was taken by a battalion from the uncommitted airborne regiment of the 106th inserted by helicopter. All this was preceded by intense reconnaissance-sabotage activities of Spetsnaz teams of the 45th Brigade. The aim of the operation was to screen the flank of the 5th Assault Corps’ final push to the Bab al-Hawa crossing and to prevent any jihadi reinforcement of the crossing from northern Idlib and Aleppo provinces. The lead BTG reached Al Dana in less than 24 hours. The Russian airborne troops let unarmed refugees and jihadist supporters stream towards the border, even assisting them at times. Armed jihadists attempting to move north with the refugees were dealt with quickly and lethally. As soon as this operation was completed, Russia Today began broadcasting high quality footage of dramatic military action of the BMD-4M airborne assault vehicles, 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar systems and Night Hunter attack helicopters interspersed with images of Russian paratroopers aiding civilian refugees. Correspondents reminded their viewers of the words of the incoming American Secretary of Defense, “No better friend, no worse enemy.”   

5.  Syrian 5th Corps proceeded to the north pushing irreconcilable jihadis and their supporters before them like herding cats.  From Idlib the Bab a-l-Hawa crossing into Hattay, Province, Turkey is about 20 miles as the crow flies (ATCF) or 30 mile by the route to Al-Dana.  In response to this oncoming flight of AQ connected jihadis the Turks tried to close their border except for emergency medical attention in Antakya (ancient Antioch)  Syria has announced that it will allow the creation of refugee camps under UN supervision and sealed off by the SAA. 

6. In the period of this turn Iran with the consent of the Iraqi government relieved Deir-al Zor from the east with a large Iranian task force.  The US objected but was ignored. The Iranians then moved NW toward Raqqa and west to link up with the R+6 west of Palmyra.

7.  By 18 January the situation in western Syria has been consolidated by the SAR with minor pockets of resistance being mopped up.

--------------- 

When you come in from the field in a US Army field exercise, the first thing you do is take your vehicles to the motor pool to wash all the mud or dust from them.  The officers go to the motor pool with the men and usually stand around watching the work and discussing the just finished field problem.  It is thought that it is best to get fresh impressions while memories are still "wet."   Formal reports and analyses are written later.

Points:

1.  The long cherished mantra and childish belief of the Poly/Sci/IR/State Department/NSC (Borgist) establishment that war does not provide an answer is incorrect.  All of American history:  War of Independence, Civil War, Spanish American War, US War Against the Filipino People, WW1, WW2, Vietnam, etc. all demonstrate that war is often decisive in history.  For someone to believe that it is not is simply either a refection of what might be called over-education or a lack of knowledge of actual history.

2.  The 29 December cease fire in Syria does not affect our game play since it does not apply to IS generally and AQ connected jihadis in western Syria.

Operation "Borders of Hatay" Turn 3

Administration.  Remains the Same.

Scenario Turn 3

January 2 to 10 January 12

The Syrian government has now made it clear through broadcasts on SANA that it intends to clear Idlib Province and other west Syria pockets of jihadi control before the US presidential inauguration and then turn its attention to elimination of IS in eastern Syria hopefully with some degree of coordination with the US led coalition.

Large scale leaflet drops began on 1 January on known areas of jihadi control in Idlib Province exhorting jihadis and in fact all those now under arms in the rebellion to surrender under a government offer of amnesty with UN supervision and to return to their homes if not known to be foreign fighters or jihadi group cadres.  The same offer is being made on radio and television 24/7.

Government forces continue offensive action along a number of axes in Idlib Province:

1.  Against Jisr al-Shugur.  The Syrian Marines continue to be the lead element on this axis.  Progress is slow but pressure is continuous.  Earlier reports of the presence of Russian armor following the marines have proven to be inaccurate.  The vehicles involved are a 12 gun battalion of Russian self propelled 152 mm. howitzers who are engaged in firing into the Jisr al-Shugur defenses in support of the marines and NDF militia in this column.

2. Around the western and northwestern perimeters of government held Aleppo forward pressure continues at what might be called a measured  pace.

3.  LTG Suheil's Tiger Forces/Desert Hawks division attacked SW along Axis M5 on 2 January followed by the Republican Guard brigade that had taken Khan Touman on 1 January.  A column of Heavy Equipment Transporters (HET) accompanied the force. 

(Taftanaz AB)

4.  Russian 106th Guards Airborne Division was moved to the Lattakia and Tartous base areas from Tula in Russia in a well coordinated and covert sea and air transfer and was inserted on 3 January into an airhead on and around the former Syrian AF Taftanaz air base five miles east of Al-Fuah' village.  Elements of the 45th Guards Airborne Brigade, which were reconnoitering the area since Christmas, seized strongpoints and marked the DZ. A Russian airborne battalion then parachuted onto the airfield to secure it.  This was followed by helicopter insertions of the rest of that infantry regiment's men as well as sling loads of much of the division's artillery and mortars.  Air landing operations began on the 3,000 foot runway within a few hours bringing in many of the division's armored vehicles.  The division's artillery ranged to the Route 60 and M5 approaches from the north as well as in defense of the two Shia villages five miles west of the airhead.  Revetments for artillery and aircraft are under construction. 106th airborne division minus the regiment at Taftanaz remains in reserve around Tartous. 

5.  Spetsnaz teams are adjusting fires for airborne  artillery as well as the Russian 152. mm. SP artillery supporting the Syrian Marines and NDF west of  Jisr al-Shugur.  

6.  On 3 January 5th Assault Corps makes steady progress across Idlib Province toward Idlib City against resistance that seems much weakened by the need to send reinforcements to the jihadis defending against threats to Jisr al-Shugur, Taftanaz and the oncoming menace of Suheil Hassan's task force. 

7.  Russian and Syrian tactical air continues to strike throughout Idlib Province on 2 and 3 January with a focus on road interdiction.  Russian strategic air (Blinders) flying from Russian and Iranian bases struck repeatedly on 3 January along the M5 highway targeting jihadi reinforcements going north to engage the Tiger Force coming south to meet them.  There were several Russian AF TU-95 Bear heavy bomber attacks on the St. Simeon Mountains west of the M5 crossing of those heights. 

On 4 and 5 January there are repeated assaults against both the Taftanaz airhead and the villages of Takfaya  and Al-Fu'a.  these are repulsed with heavy losses to the lightly armed and somewhat disorganized jihadis.  These assaults appear to have been executed to cover the movement north of a large group of insurgents past the flank threats of the Taftanaz airhead and the Shia villages.

On 6 January Suheil Hassan's task force fought a large and sustained meeting engagement astride the M5 highway NE of the Taftanaz airhead and within supporting range of the airhead's artillery and armed helicopters.  After several hours of grinding the insurgent lines fell apart and they began to flee south on the M5 engaged along the way by ambushes set up by Spetsnaz, Russian airborne infantry and Hizbullah commandos brought into the area by helicopters.  Jihadi casualties were very heavy and many attempted to surrender.

From 7 January onward 5th Assault Corps moved steadily northward toward Idlib City against diminishing resistance that demonstrated a weakness at least partly brought on by the heavy losses experienced in the Aleppo battle and the defeat suffered on 6 January NE of Taftanaz.

As 5th Assault Corps approaches the Jisr-al-Shugur to Idlib City road from the south on 10 January, jihadi forces withdrew from Jisr al-Shugur to avoid being by-passed and cut off.

On 11 January jihadi forces evacuated Idlib City and withdrew to the north through ambushes and interdicting airstrikes.

On 12 January 5th Assault Corps entered Idlib City.

Requirement:  Give your opinion as to what further actions R+6 will take before the game ends on 18 January in game time and what the political situation will be on 18 January.  pl & TTG 

Operation "Borders of Hatay" - Turn 2

 

Administration.  All remains the same.

Scenario Turn 2.

Christmas Day to 1 January.

R+6 elements have continued to eliminate pockets of jihadi/unicorn resistance in the  Damascus region with many former opposition fighters accepting government pardons and amnesty.  Those not willing to do so have been bussed north into Idlib Province.  Most of the 5th Assault Corps of the SAA moved north into Hama Directorate after 25 December and attacked to eliminate the Rastan Pocket just north of Homs. By 1 January the pocket was largely gone and the 5th Corps had deployed most of its forces northward to the southern border of Idlib Province where they were positioned by New Year's Eve.

Evacuations from east Aleppo had largely ended by New Year's Eve with UN observer parties wandering about searching for mass graves in east Aleppo and getting drunk at New Year's Eve parties in the nightclubs of the western part of the city.

YPG/SDF forces captured the Tabqa dam on the Euphrates River on  the day after Christmas.

Deir al-Zor remained firmly in government hands having been reinforced with air delivered supplies and equipment.

The newly promoted Tiger Force Commander, Fareeq (LTG) Suheil al-Hassan was seen in the streets of Aleppo in the days immediately following Christmas leading many to conclude that the reports of his troops (Tiger Forces and Desert Hawks) having remained in the Damascus area were a ruse de guerre.

The day after Christmas jihadi forces attempted to take the two Shia villages of Kafraya and al-Fu'a just north of Idlib City by storm.  They were repulsed after hours of fighting with losses on both sides.  Russian airborne engineers were airlifted into the villages the next day as well as Hizbullah and IRGC troops to bolster the defenses of the two villages.  The engineers have used farm vehicles and explosives to demolish a number of roadside buildings along the 4700 ft. stretch of  straight road between the villages.  This road is in use as of New Year's Eve as an improvised airstrip for STOL aircraft and helicopters.

SOHR in London has been reporting in late December that Russian Spetznaz and Hizbullah raiding and reconnaissance parties have been engaged in acts of assassination of local jihadi leaders all over Idlib Province and in several cases have left messages pinned to the bodies designed to implicate rival jihadi groups in the area.  Among the places raided was the area between the old Taftanaz air base east of the two Shia villages and the national M5 highway a few miles east of the air base.

Near the Bab al-Hawa border crossing three Turkish border guards were abducted the day after Christmas.  They were found hanging from telephone poles on the Syrian side of the line.  On the chest of the senior man was pinned a note in Turkish, Arabic and Russian that read "Measure for Measure." 

It was reported on SANA on New Year's Eve that it is the opinion of the R+6 allies that the jihadis/the unicorns and their foreign supporters are merely stalling for time with talk of nation wide cease fires and negotiations and that the stalling is just an attempt to gain time to consolidate jihadi power in Idlib Province.  SANA stated that the Syrian Government and its friends would act in accordance with this belief.

New Year's Day.

Coordinated concentric attacks began at Beginning Morning Nautical Twilight  (BMNT) all around the perimeter of Idlib Province:

1.  East from Lattakia in the direction of Jisr al-Shugur.  The Syrian Marines seem to be the lead element, but there are reports of Russian armor with them.

2. North by 5th Assault Corps in the general direction of Idlib City.  Initial priority of supporting fires seems to be tasked to them.

3.  All around the western and NW perimeters of the government positions at Aleppo City, attacks began en echelon from south to north in a series of rolling offensives apparently designed to draw jihadi attention and reserves toward the north.  R+6 forces have had some success in all these attacks.   Khan Touman on the M5 highway fell to the Republican Guard at 1000 AM.   Souhail's mobile reserve remained unlocated and uncommitted by the end of the day.

Russian air activity remained heavy throughout the day.

Requirement.  State your opinion as to the likely development of game action in the period beginning 2 January to 10 January.  pl &TTG

 

Operation "Borders of Hatay" - an SST war game.

Overview for  "hudud hatay,"   "Borders of Hatay"

SST will now conduct another in the series of war games that have marked our progress toward enlightenment over the years.  The goal in such games is to create conditions in which critical and creative thinking can occur with regard to possible or probable futures.  The game will be played in three or four turns (TBD).  The game will be played in Game Time, not real world time.  The Game Time dates and times will be clearly stated and should not be confused with real world times or dates.  At the beginning of each turn the control group (pl & TTG) will post a scenario situation for the following turn.  The game time Christmas Day situation for the first turn is posted below.   Based on that Situation and following Situations, comments are invited that provide the commenters' opinion as to how that Situation would develop over the period of Game Time stated for the turn.  The Control Group will judge the worthiness of comments and make decisions as to whether or not they are contributory and should be posted.  After a sufficient period of real world time has passed, a new turn scenario will be posted that to some degree reflects the quality of the comments that have been made. 

A few cautions for commenters:

1.  Do not fight the scenario of the game.  The game creates a universe deliberately isolated in time and space from reality.  It does that to focus deliberations on a fairly narrow set of possibilities.  If you do fight the scenario your comment will not be posted.

2.  Do not make comments that reflect real world time rather than game time.

3.  Do not make frivolous or obscene comments.  If you do, your comments will not be posted  and you may be banned from SST.

4.  This IS NOT a forecast.  It is a probability driven study of one particular scenario.  There could easily be others.

"Borders of Hatay" situation as of Christmas Day, 2016. 

The Syrian Government stated on Christmas Day that 2017 will be sennat al-nasr, the Year of Victory.   By Christmas Day R+6 has re-taken Palmyra with the US led air coalition having operated against IS north of the Palmyra road and R+6 air south of the road as well as in the CAS mode in the immediate area of Palmyra.  By Christmas the Tiger Force armor that led the counter-offensive is in the process of being withdrawn from Palmyra for re-fit and rest in the Damascus area.  MG Suhail, the Tiger Force commander was interviewed on Christmas Eve in Damascus by SANA and said his men deserved some rest.  By Christmas Day the evacuation of east Aleppo is largely complete, a total of around 30,000 having left for jihadiland, and another 100,000 former east Aleppo residents living in government shelters.  Relief supplies are beginning to arrive in large quantities. The besieged Shia villages of Kafraya and al-Fu'a  a few kilometers north of Idlib City were finally able to send their sick and wounded to Aleppo under the terms  of the Aleppo truce. Russia has begun air drops of supplies into these villages.   UN observers are in place at Aleppo but the French government, MSM  and Brits are still whining about massacres, etc.   Turkey continues to provide logistical support to the Nusra connected jihadis through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing into Idlib Province, Syria.  The Al-Bab confrontation among the Turks, FSA, the SAA and YPG remains stalemated as does the sadly inept effort of the Iraqi Security forces to re-capture Mosul.  The SDF/YPG are still well north of Raqqa and Tabqa, but still capturing villages.  Israel continues its more or less open support of IS on the Golan Front.  R+6 air continues to strike all over Idlib Province, around Deir al-Zor and in the Palmyra area.  There have been a number of assassinations and explosions throughout Idlib province. Speculation abounds as to whether this is the result of continued infighting triggered by the influx of Aleppo rebels in the area or suspected payback strikes by Russian Spetsnaz for the assassination of Ambassador Karlov.

First Turn Requirement.

 State your opinion as to what has happened by 2 January, 2017 (Game Time).  pl & TTG

"Jihadi Apocalypse" (a war game) Turn 4, suspended - for now

There will be a 4th turn.  It will be played out in the days following the conclusion of the nominating process by the two main American political parties.  This should be sometime in early September, 2016.  Game Time addressed in Turn 4 will be the six months following the 2 November election.

At that time there will be posted two scenarios (turns 4a and turn 4b)  These scenarios will address likely alternative futures in the context of the possible presidencies of the two candidates.

To summarize play at the end of Turn 3:

R+6 hold all of western Syria.  The Turkish border has been almost completely sealed by YPG Kurds, US air and R+6 forces west of the Euphrates.  there are pockets of SNC forces throughout the west.  These continue to be reduced through attrition.  Israel and Russia observe an uneasy avoidance of hostilities with each other.  Negotiations for a new Syrian constitution to be followed by a referendum continue.  Aleppo is entirely in government hands.  Reconstruction has begun with heavy Chinese participation.  Refugees are returning from Europe and ME countries to government held areas.  An EU air and sea lift is facilitating this from southern European ports.  Russia now has three ground division equivalents; an airborne division, two motorized rifle divisions and ancillary units in Syria.   There are three RuAF regiments spread across many bases.  China is heavily subsidizing this effort.  Russian 58th Army is the C2 element.  The SE suburbs of Damascus are once again in government hands.  Jordan has closed its borders to the Syrian opposition.  Turkey has not followed through on its threat to close Incirlik air base to the US.  Lebanon remains without effective government.  IS continues to hold eastern Syria and much of Iraq including Ramadi and Mosul.

The scenario for Turn 4 will resemble this summary.

SST thanks you all for your attention and help.  pl

Jihadi Apocalypse (A War Game) Turn 2

 

 Situation as of 1 February, 2016 (game time):

The R+6 coalition of forces has expanded its area of control and operations:

- The siege of Aleppo has been lifted by a successful advance of R+6 forces on the Axis of Advance - Jisr ash-Shugur/Idlib/Aleppo (Axis Green).  Priority of Russian fire support and CAS has been a mainstay of advance on this axis.  MRLS and tube artillery greatly facilitated the advance.  A Russian motorized rifle brigade is the backbone of advance on this axis. along with SAA, IRGC, Hizbullah and ethnic and sectarian militias  The advance was coordinated with an offensive of R+6 forces NE to SW from the Aleppo government perimeter on Axis Red.  The jaws of the encirclement met NE of Idlib in a classic kesselschlacht.   Unicorn/jihadi casualties were  heavy in the kessel battle.  There were defections among the jihadis and many fleeing toward the Turkish border.  A pursuit to the border closed the rebel held northern entrance to Aleppo.  The city is now besieged by R+6 forces.  The government of Syria has offered amnesty to FSA members in Aleppo and there have been many surrenders thus far.

- A large redoubt zone now exists from the Lebanese border on the south to the Turkish border north of Latakia and extending inland (east) to Homs/Hama.  (Phase Line Blue)  The north-south M5 highway is in government control as far the M4/M5 junction east of Idlib.   A Russian Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in this area east of the coastal mountains as reinforcement to SAA and militia forces present there.  There was heavy fighting around Homs and Hama.  R+6 casualties were numerous but acceptable with hospitals in Damascus providing second echelon medical care. 

- Russian personnel strength in Syria now is 20,000 organized in a provisional Motorized Rifle Division (-), a regiment of the 7th Guards Airborne Division, artillery units, headquarters, base support troops and two RuAF Regiments.  The Russians have reached the limits of their available naval sea lift and air lift for reinforcement and supply.  They are now seeking to negotiate commercial sea and airlift on a charter basis from several maritime powers.  It is expected that if further lift can be arranged the Russians may further augment their forces in Syria and/or Iraq.

- In January a combined Russian/SAA airmobile operation reinforced Kuweires air base SE of Aleppo.  This was followed by link-up with R+6  troops from the forces that relieved Aleppo.   RuAF units have moved onto the base and are conducting operations from there as well as the coastal bases.

- YPG guerillas crossed the Euphrates in an attempt to move west to link-up with R+6 forces coming north from Kuweires AB.  This effort has been blocked by  repeated Turkish air strikes on the YPG Kurds.  Seven US Army Green Berets embedded with the Kurds have been killed by Turkish air thus far.

- Turkey is seeking to limit USAF use of Incirlik AB while at the same time themselves flying missions against the YPG Kurds and their American advisers from the same base.  The Obama Administration has been accused in European media of using American soldiers as human shields to limit Turkish action against the Kurds.  To this charge they have no answer.

- Iran has 2,000 troops in the fight and Lebanese Hizbullah maintains a similar number on the Lebanese/Syrian mountain border country as well as 500 men with the R+6 forces around Aleppo.

- The Gulf countries continue to support jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq.

- The Gulfie war against the Houthi/Zeidi people of Yemen continues to flounder.  Saudi air continues to kill large numbers of civilians in what amounts to a Douhet style application of terror bombing.   On the ground the Saudis and other Gulfie forces cannot "move" the tribal guerrillas and have suffered heavy losses in the Yemeni mountains east of Sanaa and in Najran Province, Saudi Arabia.  There is considerable unrest in Riyadh among member of the royal family.

- China ??????

- Israel ?????

Game time is now 1 February, 2016.  Instruction - Forecast events in this scenario worldwide through 1 June, 2016 (game time).  Comments will close for Turn 2 on Sunday, 8 November, 2016. (real time) pl

New War Game Prep - 29 December 2014

I will start a second world wide war game involving the Salafist jihadi community vs the rest of us.

This time I want to do this by teams with me acting (perhaps with others) as control and "all others."

I want to have a number of player teams:

Turkey (I have two Turkish volunteers)

Israel

Syrian Government

Iraq

Iran

Russia

NATO

USA

Jordan/Egypt

The GCC

IS/Nusra/MB

Write me at [email protected] to volunteer. I will make selections.  Play will be in turns as before.  Tell me if I have missed something.

PL

 

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 3b - Summary of Game Situation as of 4 July, 2015

By the 4th of July, 2015:

NW Syria Front.

SAR forces have consolidated control over Aleppo and are re-occupying border posts to the north and west of the city.  IS forces have withdrawn to the NE of Aleppo under severe pressure from SAR ground forces as well as SAR air force and US combat aviation.  The US continues to deny the obvious tacit cooperation with Syria,

KAR Front.

PM forces with support from both the US and Iran have advanced to positions in which they control Kurdish populated  areas in Iraq.  The KAR government states that it does not intend to advance further into IS controlled areas.  The KAR government does not believe that it has the strength that would be needed to retake Mosul.  There has been a large scale evacuation of Kurds from all the areas of northern Iraq.  These Kurds are fleeing into the KAR.  The KAR government states that it will not attempt to take any action in Syrian Kurdistan but that refugees who make their way to the KAR will be welcomed.  Delivieries of US supplied equipment to the KAR continue through Iranian ports and are tranported to Suleimaniya by Iranian transport.  Obama Administration efforts to bring 1 USSFGA de facto liaison to an end have failed.  There have been several instances of violent confrontation between CIA and Green Berets over this issue.

Anbar/Baghdad Front.

The Iraqi/Abadi government "suspended" most governmental functions  in Baghdad as of 1 May 2015.  The government is moving to Nasiriya far to the south.  In response, the US Embassy has largely abandoned its compound on the west bank of the Tigris and is moving to co-locate with the government at Nasiriya.    Some US military functions continue at the former embassy.  AH64 Apaches are operating from within the compound.  A battalion of USMC have been airlifted into the embassy compound to join the battalion + already on the scene.  BIA is entirely in the hands of IS.    All of Anbar is under IS control.

Jordan Front.

 Jordanian Army has deployed to combat ready positions in the north and around Ma'an in the south.  There is now a combined division sized armored task force in position at Azraq Air base in eastern Jordan.  TF  Hashemi consists of two US Stryker brigades, a French light armored brigade, and the Jordanian 40th Armored Brigade.  TF is OPCON to Jordanian Army.  A prince of the royal house is in nominal command.

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 3 - Forecast of events until 4 July 2015

Summary of events in game world/game time from 5 November 2014 to 1 March, 2015.

Kobane Front.

In spite of increased US air support Kobane was totally in IS hands by 15 November.   Several thousand residents fled across the border into Turkey before the end came.  Over the next several weeks IS staged several execution dramas for the TV cameras waiting on the hillside across the border from the city.   The UN estimates the number of executed to be more than 5,000.  IS has kept several more thousand residents alive and display them on roof tops for the benefit of US air reconnaissance. This has effectively stopped US air attacks on the city.  IS forces previously concentrated in the action at Kobane have moved to other positions along the border or to the Aleppo area.  Kurdish rioting has built steadily in Turkey since the fall of Kobane.  These riots have been put down with severity by the Erdogan government's police.  There have been numerous instances of intercommunal conflict across Turkey between ethnic Turks and Kurds.

Aleppo front.

SAR forces completed encirclement of Aleppo before the end of the battle at Kobane.   IS forces returning to Aleppo have repeatedly tried to break the Syrian lines of circumvellation but have failed in spite of heavy employment of suicide truck bombers as part of their fire plans for attacks.  Syrian and US air attacks are occurring in close proximity to each other against much the same IS forces who are trying to break the SAR siege.

Turkish Front.

In December, Turkey announced its revocation of permission for the French Navy carrier battle group's presence in the Black Sea as well as for over flight clearance for anti-IS air operations in Iraq.  Turkey stressed that emergency landing rights for damaged French aircraft would still be available at Batman.  France withdrew from the Black Sea in January re-positioning the battle group in the Mediterranean Sea NE of Cyprus where it began air operations against targets in northern Iraq.  Syria's foreign minister expressed satisfaction with that as well as blanket overflight clearance for French aircraft from the De Gaulle to and from Iraq.  Syria also offered to exchange IFF codes with France to prevent accidental engagements.  It is believed that France responded favorably to the offer.  In February a group of active and retired senior Turkish Army officers attempted to depose Erdogan's government.  The attempt failed when Turkish Jandarma units loyal to Erdogan blocked the attempt of a Turkish Army brigade to occupy the capital, Ankara.  The brigade has been disbanded and many of its officers and soldiers arrested and held for trial for treason and mutiny.  The generals and colonels who instigated the coup attempt have fled into hiding within Turkey.  The government accuses the Army of hiding them within Turkish Army cantonments.  In March Erdogan allowed IS to open two more consulates.  One is in Antakya and the other in Erzerum.  This action and the cancellation of the waiver for France in the Black Sea has caused backchannel discussions in NATO of the possibility of expelling Turkey from NATO. Russia has made it clear that it would not veto a resolution condemning Turkey in the Security Council so long as the resolution includes economic sanctions.  China has not expressed an opinion with regard to such a resolution.  Ambassador Samantha Power has made a public statement that the US opposes such a resolution.

Kurdish Front.

Covert and unacknowledged US/Iranian cooperation has continued in building up the Pesh Merga. US aircraft are now operating in significant numbers from KAR airfields.  Equipment and supplies are now arriving with Iranian cooperation in overland deliveries from Gulf ports.  These deliveries have enabled a steady build up in PM capabilities.   The KAR government has made it clear that it has no interest in advancing its forces beyond what it considers to be authentically Kurdish territory.  The KAR government has made it clear that it will not attempt to relieve Baghdad or any other area under Iraqi covernment control if such operations endanger Kurdish forces.

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 2 (Forecast to 1 March 2015)

Situation as of 5 November 2014

Diplomatic Front

Russia, France and Turkey have agreed to a one time exception to the Montreux Convention to allow positioning of the French Navy De Gaulle carrier battle group in the eastern Black sea for the purpose of air operations against IS in Iraq.  France does not want to participate in Syrian operations.  France does not want to lured into overflying Syria.  Turkey will allow overflight of eastern Anatolia to and from Iraq.  Turkey will also allow forward positioning of French naval SAR at Batman and emergency landings at Batman, Mus and Erzurum as necessary. Russia has offered the French battle group port privileges at Sebastopol for ship chandler and re-fueling operations.  France has yet to respond to this offer.

Turkey continues to deny the US the use of its airbases for offensive operations in either Syria or Iraq. Turkey seems to believe that it has enough leverage over US to force US ground participation in decisive campaign against the Syrian government as well as in establishment of a "no fly zone" in Syria that would inevitably result in direct combat between US and Syrian air forces.

Iranian assisted Pesh Merga forces in eastern Iraq continue to receive US air support.  This unacknowledged cooperation between Iran and the US is effective.

Syria's foreign minister stated once again on 1 November that Syria is pleased with US intervention against IS forces and positions. Syrian and US aircraft are carefully avoiding each other by mutual consent.

Terrorist Front

In Jordan, IS sympathisers attacked and killed two American tourists at Petra on the 20th of October.  Three French tourists were kidnapped on 25 October from the vicinity of one of the Ummayad hunting lodges in the eastern desert near Azraq air base. The kidnappers were Saudi beduin who took the French back across the border into the northern Najd where they have posted Utube videos demanding multi-million Euro ransoms for each one.  They state that if their demands are not met they will begin beheading the captives in the name of the Caliph Ibrahim.  The Saudi government has made no effort to rescue these people.

German police have apprehended an Al-Qaida affiliate cell in Hamburg. The group was well advance in planning a bombing attack against the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Political Front

The US mid-term election resulted in Republican gains in the House of Representatives and control of the senate by the GOP 53-47.  On 5 November, Senator McConnell, the presumptive next majority leader, demanded that President Obama take firm and decisive action against Islamic terrorism and IS in particular or face decisive action with regard to failure to  "defend the United States." A large group of Republican senators voiced immediate agreement.  Washington is overflowing with media hyped rumors that Obama is about to seek a new civilian national security team.

By 5 November a dozen new Ebola cases had appeared in the US causing a serious distraction from foreign affairs.  Many more had appeared by then in Europe.  Media personalities excoriated public health officials on both continents.  In west Africa the first cases of US military personnel displaying signs of what might be Ebola had appeared by 5 November.

President Obama had not, by 5 November, authorised a US ground presence in Iraq or Syria other than as operations advisers, trainers and guard for the embassy in Baghdad.  As a result the nearest US ground combat units were in Kuwait and Jordan.

Kobane Front

By 5 November IS had taken 90% of the town, in spite of the large number  of coalition air strikes, many of them flown, at Kurdish request, by US heavy bombers against targets inside Kobane.  These had failed to halt IS' advance but killed many Kurdish defenders and destroyed much of the city.  On the 2nd of November IS brought a hundred Kurdish prisoners to the Turkish border where they were executed for the TV cameras.  This was staged for network news.  In the fighting for Kobane throughout the latter half of October the IS used suicide truck bombers as part of their attack fire plans, rolling the trucks forward through their infantry lines to detonate them just before assaults.

Aleppo Front 

More and more IS fighters have returned to the Aleppo area for the purpose of trying to stop the Syrian Army's finalization of the encirclement of the old city.  US air activity has followed them and as a result, US aircraft are now (5 November) flying missions against ground targets presently engaged by the Syrian Army.

KAR front.

US aircraft are now operating from several KAR airfields. Erbil, Suleimaniya, etc.  USArmy's first SFGA is present in increasing numbers in the KAR.  They are returning to the region with many of the people who were instrumental in the "awakening."  Contacts are being re-established and these SF soldiers are returning to the tribal areas behind IS lines.  Most of 1 SFGA are engaged as adviser/trainers with the Pesh Merga.

Anbar Front

Nearly all of Anbar Province was in IS hands by 5 November.  Captured M198 155 mm. howitzers have been emplaced in camouflaged singleton positions within range of BIA.  "Searching fire" against the airport began in late October.  Two HE shells landed on the apron in front of the passenger terminal on the 25th.  The dozen airlines that had been operating through BIA then "suspended' operations until safety could be assured.   In the last week of October, IS artillery fire against the airport improved in accuracy. The reason for this was revealed when several airport employees were arrested by the secret police and charged with spotting for IS artillery and reporting by cell phone.  These arrests were followed the next night by a ground suicide bomber attack on aviation fuel stores at the airport.  It had been hoped that the provision of counter-battery radar to Iraqi Army artillery would enable them to suppress IS artillery, but, in the event, Iraqi Army artillery commanders have declined to advance to firing positions from which they could be effective.   IS sympathisers in the area report Iraqi Army firing positions by cell phone and the resulting fire is more than than the Iraqi Army want to experience.  

Baghdad Front

Large numbers of Shia have begun to leave the area of Baghdad west of the Tigris.  More and more arms caches in that part of the city are being discovered by the police.

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Based on this statement of the situation as of 5 November- 2014, forecast your views as to what is likely to occur between 5 Nomber, 2014 and 1 March 20.

Real world time for inputs for this turn will expire at 1600 GMT, 12 October 2014.

DO NOT FIGHT THE PROBLEM. The game is intended to be a pedagogic tool for sharpening our understaning of outstanding issues.  IT IS NOT intended to be predictive of the future.  pl 

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 1, The Situation as of 7 October 2014

We are going to play a game on SST.  This game will be a miniature version of the large scale politico-military games played by a number of corporations under contract to government entities in Europe and the United  States.  This game is based on the general principles of government gaming and does not derive from any company's proprietary interest.  The purpose of this game will be educational for all of us participants rather than implied policy prescriptions as in many government contract games.  These threads (each move) will not preclude other threads in parallel. 

The subject of the game will be the probable course of military and geopolitical events in the war between IS and the anti-IS coalition constructed by the United States over the next six months. Although IS and the coalition are the principal players, all those parties whose interests are involved in the contest can be introduced as additional players by participants.  Diplomatic, economic, political and military elements of the situation are to be included in the play.

The game will be played in "turns."  W. Patrick Lang (turcopolier) will act as umpire, omniscient observer and control for the game as Turcopolier Control.   The period of time available for completion of a task will be stated when each sub-part of a turn is posted.

The first turn will consist of two parts:

- A data call from players for statements of the real world  situation as of this date - 7 October 2014.  Estimates will be submitted to SST as comments on this post.  24 hours from time of posting for this sub-part will be allowed. After that time has passed Turcopolier Control will issue a consolidated situation statement based on the inputs and his judgement.

- Based on that new situation statement the players will be asked to forceast events for the next month for all the parties portrayed in the game.

In the second turn, Turcopolier/Control will issue a new scenario based on the results of Turn One:

- Based on that revised scenario participants will be asked to forecast additional play for the parties to the game for two additional months.

The Third Turn will be a continuation of this process.  The game will continue until it is judged to no longer be fruitul.  Participants are cautioned that fantasy inputs will not be tolerated or accepted, i.e, intervention by God (deus ex machina), beings from outer space or the like.

In any turn following the initial situation assesment, participants may request diplomatic talks with a player or a specific information input. Such information may or may not be available.  In all such exchanges, Turcopolier Control will be the actual interlocutor.

These rules are subject to revision mid-game by Turcopolier Control. The game is proprietary to SST.

Turcopolier Control looks forward to your inputs.

Game play begins now.  pl