Sic Semper Tyrannis

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 11 FEBRUARY 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

WAR PLANS. US/NATO war plans always start with a heavy bombardment. The expectation is that complete air superiority will be quickly gained so that aircraft and cruise missiles will have unrestricted freedom to destroy vital infrastructure. This succeeds against countries like Iraq, to say nothing of Afghanistan. But it won't happen if the first few minutes of the war see the destruction of half of NATO's airfields, hangars, ports and EW assets in a cloud of hypersonic missiles. Russia sends another message to Washington and Brussels – don't even think of it. But, of course, they are thinking of it. Shoygu called for increased production of hypersonic missiles. Not, they say, easily detectable by radar. A US ship entering the Black Sea would have about three minutes to detect and defend against Kinzhals fired from 550 kms away in Crimea. The just-deployed Bastion system would take longer. Russia isn't trying to do everything everywhere, just defend its own territory: that's an achievable goal; the other isn't.

WAR DREAMS. Fantasy: in NATO planning the Polish Army quickly seizes Kaliningrad. Partial reality: in Polish Army war game, Warsaw is surrounded in five days. Real reality. Poland has targets: see above.

NAVALNIY. The story continues. The theory that he's being fitted up for a treason charge was given a boost when Zakharova said he should be called an "agent of influence" rather than a politician. His suspended sentence for fraud was lifted and he's off to prison. Read Yves Rocher's statement; sounds to me as if the company believes he did swindle them. The fact that there's now a campaign against the company suggests my deduction is correct. Meanwhile his wife is being set up as the new Navalniy – it's evident from the Charité report that his health is pretty bad. After the lacklustre performance of the demos, one of his people declared a moratorium but was ordered to reverse the decision.

COVID. The Sputnik vaccine received good press from The Lancet. Vaccination centre in Sochi. Russia has developed a quick PCR process. Forget all that stuff we were saying a few months ago: we want it now. All this is causing cognitive dissonance for Western propaganda organs: read this tripe: "Putin’s COVID-19 charm offensive will be transient".

FINES. Moscow fines RFE/RL for failure to declare 'foreign agent' status on material aimed at Russians. Washington will have the fantods but this is just Moscow's version of the US FARA legislation in action.

POLICE BRUTALITY. Here's the video Moscow is giving every visitor who comes to lecture it.

START Extended for five years. A good thing, but otherwise more of the same from Washington: "determination of Russia to damage and disrupt our democracy" and so on.

RUSSIA-CHINA. A piece in the Russian media suggests that the two are very close to concluding a formal military alliance and enumerates the mutual advantages to the world's largest economy and best military (too soon to call it that? Should we wait a few years when it will be obvious?). It's coming.

EU. The EU has made a mess of its COVID vaccine policy. An EU official is sent to Moscow to beg for the Sputnik vaccine. But he can't resist giving the usual moralistic lecture. (As an aside, I am sick and tired of EU flunkeys posturing about "European values"; if it weren't for the USSR – 80% – and the Anglosphere – 20% – they'd all be goose-stepping around in leather giving each other Hitler salutes: Hitler, Franco, Mussolini and the rest of them were all Europeans). Lavrov is not amused and called the EU unreliable. EU guy returns, usual sources accuse him of being feeble, and he starts talking tough again. "Headless chicken". Moscow doesn't care: the Western model is now seen as one of failure.

WESTERN VALUES™. Listen to Blinken explain why Israel can annex Golan ; one day he will explain why Crimea can't be Russian.

DAVOS. An inflection moment? Putin speaks of the failure of the "Washington Consensus" and unilateralism. Xi agrees. Merkel promises neutrality.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. Vladimir Putin Has Become America’s Ex-Boyfriend From Hell: "a geopolitical stalker". This from the outlet that has "stalked" Putin 3000 times in four years. And never forget this demented bit of filth.

UKRAINE. Hopeless. Meanwhile, let's ban the Russian vaccine. Not that we have any from anywhere else.

THE DEATH OF IRONY. If it's Russia, it's OK to ban it. Actually they're opposition TV channels.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 28 JANUARY 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

DOOMED. Kasparov, a famous chess player, says Russia's on the way down thanks to Putin. Said the same thing 13 years ago. Why does the Western media keep printing this rubbish? Silly question.

PUTIN PALACE. Here's a palace actually built on his orders. And here's how the richest man in the world spends his time. (But it's gotta be Putin's: here's a photoshop of him in the pool). More rubbish.

COVID. A WHO representative thinks Russia's getting it under control. Moscow is opening up.

VACCINE. It is reported that the EU is considering approving the Sputnik vaccine because of delays in US ones. Merkel says she will help. Only a few months ago, this was out of the question.

INTERESTING. Zakharova: "The most popular comment I receive from Americans on my personal social media accounts is how to get Russian citizenship". I doubt much will come of this – but... Russia, land of the free and home of the brave. Has a ring to it, hasn't it? There are some Americans there.

OPEN SKIES. Moscow is preparing to leave after failing to get assurances that US allies won't share information with Washington. But, if Washington changes its mind, it will too.

NAVALNIY. Navalniy returns on plane filled with Western reporters and supporters, arrested and, after bail hearing, jailed for 30 days. (Broke probation terms on fraud conviction). Great excuse to sanction Nord Stream! Demos around Russia on Sunday – see video of 14-year old. Usual stuff, usual coverage. Meanwhile both Sweden and Germany keep information about his so-called poisoning from Russia.

NAVALNIY, COCKROACHES AND PISTOLS. I'd heard he'd called Muslims cockroaches but I didn't know there was a video. Here it is with English subtitles. Definitely Nobel Prize material. Did Washington really want to suggest that he is an "ally"?

DOESN'T MAKE ANYTHING. This week's "Made in Russia" video: aircraft, vaccine, buses, robot weapons, pigs, medical facilities and a new airport. All very new, shiny and high-tech, too.

PUTIN-BIDEN. They had their first phonecall. Interesting to compare the Kremlin's record with the White House's: but Biden has to talk tough, Putin doesn't. But "interference in the 2020 United States election"? Really? Wasn't it the most secure ever? Does Biden really want to raise that subject?

RUSSIA-EU. This seems to me to be much harder language than we've seen before. More suggestion that Moscow is going to dump the EU qua EU.

SAUCE, GOOSE, GANDER. RFE/RL has been fined for not admitting it's a foreign agent.

SOLARWINDS HACK. Not Russia but Israel? And another so-called Russian hack blows up.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. While START will likely be extended for another five years which is good, we can otherwise expect more of the same: Clinton and Pelosi suggest Trump was following Putin's orders and Biden mentioned bounties, Solarwinds and Navalniy.

FAKE NEWS. The NYT printed over 3000 items on the bogus Trump/Russia story. That's two a day!

NEW NWO. European poll. Everything has changed: "Most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the November US presidential election, but they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader... Majorities in key member states now think the US political system is broken, and that Europe cannot just rely on the US to defend it... look to Berlin rather than Washington as the most important partner... A majority believe that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade and would want their country to stay neutral in a conflict between the two superpowers. Two-thirds of respondents thought the EU should develop its defence capacities... Washington cannot take European alignment against China for granted. Public opinion will have a bigger effect on the relationship than it once did, and needs to be taken into account." Another time when Trump exposed the emptiness behind the curtain. Note the reference to having to pay attention to "public opinion" – the dreaded populism appears.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. One of the Trump Administration's last actions was to impose more sanctions on Nord Stream 2. The chair of the relevant German parliament committee said the sanctions were "unacceptable" and suggested penal duties on US gas. I doubt Biden will change the policy.

UKRAINE. Only 10% of Ukrainians think things are going in the right direction. In a curious parallel, given the US involvement in destroying Ukraine, only 14% of Americans think their country is.

TURKEY. Erdoğan says Ankara will not ask Washington for permission to buy more S-400 SAMs.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 14 JANUARY 2021 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA-CHINA. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says: "In developing China-Russia strategic cooperation, we see no limit, no forbidden zone and no ceiling to how far this cooperation can go." The two now settle 25% of their business in their own currencies. I would say that the two lasting achievements of the neo-cons and their New American Century have been the ever-closer Moscow-Beijing alliance and the increased influence of Iran. Who did win the Cold War after all?

RESERVES. The Central Bank of Russia has published its account of Russia reserves as of 30 June 2020. The total was 561.1 billion USD (up $44.3 billion since a year before). Euro holdings accounted for 29.5% . For the first time ever gold (22.9%) was a bigger proportion than USD (22.2%). Renminbi was 12.2%. Russia's economy – failing always failing.

NAVALNIY. The report from the Charité Hospital in Berlin fires another nail gun's worth into the coffin of the Navalniy story. Numerous health problems, lots of drugs in him, but no novichok symptoms.

COVID. Putin has ordered mass use of the Sputnik vaccine (1.5 million inoculated already). No side effects, they say. A scientist is optimistic that COVID will have faded down by the summer.

PUTIN CHRISTMAS. What Putin did on the 6th; what some Americans think he did. Or this.

WESTERN VALUES™. As Western social media apps censor, people are bailing out and Russian ones grow: the founder of Telegram says 25 million new members have joined in past 72 hours. These things are bubbles: Twitter and Facebook are said to have lost fifty billion dollars after banning Trump.

PAVLIK REDEVIVUS. From Vladimir Goldstein. And she wants to be a lawyer, too.

JOKES. Just heard this one: I can make anti-Putin jokes on Russian social media. So, what, I can make anti-Putin jokes on Western social media. (A re-tread of a Soviet-era joke). Or this: Due to travel restrictions abroad, Americans have done a coup at home.

MOON. Moscow considering manned moon mission. Hmmmm. Russian/Chinese base on the Moon in ten years?

SURVEILLANCE. Moscow City has revealed a plan to spend money on a database containing information about every resident, including passport numbers, insurance policies, salaries, car registrations. Much of it appears to already exist. For safety, security and convenience, of course. Mind you, we all volunteered: we all carry smartphones around broadcasting everything we do.

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN. Putin chaired a meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. They signed a statement on development of Karabakh region. Here are the official statements after the meeting. Its another step in resolving the difficult problem which has deep roots. I note a reference to the OSCE Minsk Group but I don't expect it to get much involved. It's done nothing much in 28 years and who wants the West meddling in the area anyway?

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. "After months of bashing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, Western journalists in Moscow line up to be inoculated". A reminder of the job description.

NUGGETS FROM THE STUPIDITY MINE. I am amused that the US Navy has announced that it may start "freedom of navigation" trips in the Russian Arctic (despite not not signing on to the UNCLOS.) But the biggest US icebreaker is rather elderly and can barely handle two-metre ice. So perhaps it will lease icebreakers from Finland. Given that the Arctic is a Russian lake, not least because of the Russian monopoly of gigantic icebreakers, one can easily image some embarrassments for the Americans.

NEW NWO. "We are seeing images that I never imagined we would see in this country-in some other capital yes, but not here. No one in the world is likely to see, respect, fear, or depend on us in the same way again. If the post-American era has a start date, it is almost certainly today." Richard N Haass.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. After seven years of negotiation, the EU and China have produced a comprehensive trade agreement. Washington is not amused. Meanwhile Nord Stream 2 chugs along.

UKRAINE. Has been left rather high and dry on vaccines with none of its BFFs in the West doing anything for it. But the Foreign Minister insists Kiev will not buy Sputnik vaccine even if it works: "It [Russia] cares about imposing its propaganda cliches and ideology by supplying the vaccine, even if it were effective". Like most things in Ukraine, it's a mess.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

 

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 3 DECEMBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID-19. I wonder whether Xi suspected at first (at first) that COVID might (might) have been a biowar attack and communicated that possibility to Putin. (There are probably people in Beijing who think the US used biowar in Korea.) I think they quickly decided that it wasn't but the possibility was put into their minds. (Remember the so-called Thucydides Trap?) I thought this up as an explanation of why, as far as I know, only Russia and China have built new permanent isolation hospitals. Just in case. Any way, four new ones just opened in Russia with another one coming later this month. Putin announced the beginning of large-scale vaccinations yesterday, key workers have the priority. Shoygu announced a vaccination program for the military.

KARABAKH. The ceasefire is holding, refugees are returning. "It is worth noting that international actors [he means Western ones, of course] have been completely sidelined from mediation..." Well, what do they bring to the table and who would trust them? The world is changing.

PUTIN. On his last legs again. Again.

SPACE STATION. An Energia executive says that the ISS is breaking down and suggests it has only about five years left. Meanwhile Beijing says China will start to build its own orbital station in 2021. (A Chinese probe just landed on the Moon.) Do I see a joint venture coming?

NAVAL INCIDENT. Peter the Great Bay is near Vladivostok and Russia claims the straight line from cape to cape; the US does not recognise that. A US warship on a "freedom of the seas" trip entered it and was chased off. Not that the USN would ever bow to foreign intimidation; (entertaining read that: the facts are that the US ship entered, the Russian ship told it to leave, it did – but nobody made it leave!!!) The Russian and Chinese navies should do a FONOP in the Gulf of Mexico. But that would be a silly and dangerous provocation without any real point, wouldn't it?

ARCTIC. Rosneft announces that the Zvezda shipyard in Primorskiy Region has begun constructing the first of 15 icebreaker LNG carriers of the Arc7 class for its Arctic LNG 2 project. There is already a fleet of South Korean-built icebreaker LNG ships operating in Yamal. The Arctic is a Russian lake.

SHARON TENNISON. Interview with her here: worth your time. She's been tirelessly working to improve American-Russian relations for three decades: ordinary people, face-to-face. Probably the greatest thing she has achieved is that Putin – whom she met way back then – certainly knows what she is doing and I'm sure that he feels he has had enough of Americans, he thinks of her and tries again.

NATO is again concerned by how close to its bases Russia puts its country.

NAVALNIY. More confusion and contradictions revealed in the German story.

SKRIPALMANIA. Yulia phoned home, on a burner it seems; living apart, she's OK, dad has a tracheostomy tube; dad never wrote to Putin asking to come back and did not give interviews to Urban.

WESTERN VALUES™. The country that judges other countries' elections just had an election. Somebody won. One day a court will tell us who. Lots of evidence of fraud: here, here, here and here. And who would contract out their elections to machines that can be hacked by anyone? (Note the date and source of the video – three years later, in CNN-land, the machines have become 100% solid.)

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Bubbles continue to burst. Too late, of course – the damage has been done. The only way to get to the truth is to sue. Gee maybe Moscow didn't fund the Brexit campaign as we told you. Carter Page is suing Comey and others. Now that Flynn is pardoned maybe he'll sue too.

OPEN SKIES. The USA has formally left it. The irony is that it was Eisenhower's idea.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. A revealing ad for a Russian correspondent for the NYT – in essence, ya gotta believe all the anti-Russian propaganda or we won't hire you. But what I don't get is why pay the housing and transportation costs? They can make up this stuff more easily from home. BELARUS inches towards a solution: Lukashenka just said he will not be President under the new constitution which is expected to appear in 2021.

UKRAINE. Ukrainian historians continue their work: Joe Biden is the descendent of a Ukrainian noble and "culinary deceptions" are the newest Russian "hybrid warfare". Meanwhile, in the real world, Ukrainians are getting out when they can. The seventh anniversary of Maidan – war, poverty, industrial decline, population fleeing, birthrate collapsing, a comedian in powerless power, the oligarchs looting what little is left, nonsense enshrined. And let's not even think about this.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 19 NOVEMBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

KARABAKH. This ceasefire should last. Russian troops have been moved to the points of contact and secure the road link from Karabakh to Armenia proper. (Deployment positions and General Staff briefing). Baku recovered a lot of territory that had been taken in the first war and can justifiably claim to have won. Armenia, which officially was not involved at all, under its present somewhat colour revolution leadership has lost – but avoided a greater defeat – and Pashinyan is now under considerable pressure to quit. Ankara has once again extended itself but come up short. Moscow has demonstrated that it is the indispensable element in the area. However, it is important to recognise that the final status of Karabakh itself remains undecided and this will be a difficult problem to solve. But it will likely be settled with Moscow's efforts and not that of outsiders.

NO MORE EMPIRE. Dmitriy Trenin explains to Americans that Russia is just Russia. Moscow knows exceptionalism is a waste and that empire is too.

COVID. A curfew in Moscow at 2300. Phase III trial results of the vaccine are said to be good. To my cynical surprise, Reuters has pretty balanced coverage of the Western reaction to the Sputnik vaccine.

E-VISAS. A quick, easy and cheap visa system goes into effect next year for citizens of 52 countries. None of the "Five Eyes" is included. This move has been in the works since the great success of the quick visas for the World Cup.

ISS. Russia finally loses its taxi monopoly.

RED SEA. It is reported that a small naval logistics base will be constructed in Sudan. Not sure I understand why: I don't see how this fits into Russia's defensive posture. Although it might be connected to supporting Iran which is in Moscow's interest (the enemy of my enemy is my friend).

GUNS. Washington realises its air defence has holes (Tehran's "black cygnet"). US comms aren't reliable. Strategic bombers and their weapons loads. Lasers on fighter planes. New nuclear war command bunker. The US State Department fears that the Russian Poseidon weapon underwater nuclear drones could unleash ‘radioactive tsunami’ on US. Well... that's what they're designed to do; maybe it's time to reconsider your policy on Russia. I reiterate – Russia just has to counter.

WESTERN VALUES™. The country that judges other countries' elections just had an election. Somebody won. One day a court will tell us who. Apparently it's easy to lose track of votes and takes a long time to find them. There's a box around here somewhere.

RUSSIA AND THE WEST. I speculate that Moscow is giving up on the West and Western courts.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Remember all we were told about how weak US election security was and how Russia could easily change results? Well, forget it, Russia was shut out this year and US elections are solid as a rock. (Not that these people would give credit to Trump for the alleged re-securing.) Although those pesky Russians are still busy sowing, won't congratulate and are disinforming.

WITHDRAWALS. The new US Defence Secretary says US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan will be reduced to 2500 each by 15 Jan 2021 and that "All wars must end". Good luck with that: we've just heard a deep state operative boasting about defying Trump on this issue. And there's opposition from the usual quarters: "leaving too soon", Russia will "fill the vacuum" (but hasn't Moscow been there and done that?). I guess they think doubling the Soviet record isn't enough – Washington should go for the triple.

NEW NWO. 15 Asia-Pacific nations have signed onto the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: a third of the world economy. And poof goes Obama's Asian pivot and Trump's isolate China attempts. The grouping include two of the Five Eyes as well as Japan and South Korea. The world is changing.

UKRAINE. Remember when Putin allegedly told Bush that Ukraine wasn't even a country? What he meant was that it is a territory assembled out of parts of other countries by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev (not the people I'd personally pick to design my country) and deeply divided. It still is in the post-Maidan nightmare. A recent poll in "the poorest country in Europe" shows it After all the propaganda, only 41% want to join NATO, 37% want non-alignment, 13% want to join the Russian-led security grouping. 57% expect relations with Russia to get better, 30% do not. Results vary with location. (Here's the original). All that suffering and misery to remain where they were and not much change on the "cultural map" either. As I said at the beginning, Ukraine no longer exists: the West broke the First Rule of Ukraine.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer\

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 5 NOVEMBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

VALDAI. Putin's speech is here. To my mind, other than the funeral crack, the most memorable bit was his strong defence of a mixed economy: when things are purring along, free enterprise does the job but in bad times you need the government. I'd say the last 20 years vindicates this point of view.

MOSCOW. I generally regard ratings lists as GIGO except when they provide an unexpected result as this does: Moscow fourth best city in the world for living and doing business. London, New York, and Paris ahead of it. Well... here's a New Yorker saying COVID has killed NYC, and a Brit saying London too. The world does turn, doesn't it? COVID is a gigantic black swan and it's hit the West very hard.

PRESIDENTS. Last week Putin submitted a bill to the Duma that would make ex-presidents members of the Federation Council, today another to given them extensive immunity. Is he planning to go soon? After my predictive failure nine years ago, I've given up. I have always expected him to go when he thought the time was right and has a successor ready; he'll determine the timing. But it's a black box and I don't know what's going on inside. (This is not pseudo wisdom about "Mysterious Russia": in any political process, we only see things going in and things coming out, what happens inside is speculation).

CORRUPTION. The CEO of the Vostochniy cosmodrome was arrested. The project has seen a lot of corruption and embezzlement.

ARCTIC. There are eight "Arctic nations". But only one, thanks to its unequalled fleet of powerful icebreakers, has the capability to do anything more than maintain a thin presence. Helmer discusses.

ARMS CONTROL. As START will probably not be renewed, I agree with a Russian chief designer that Russia is well ahead of the USA in nuclear weaponry.

RELIGIONS. Putin had his annual meeting with religious leaders. Quite a variety; read the list.

DOESN'T MAKE ANYTHING. Sputnik reports that Russian scientists have found a way to quickly diagnose cancer. We'll see: Sputnik sometimes gets ahead of itself on these matters.

SECURITY ORGANS. I think allowing intelligence officers take foreign citizenship and residency is being misinterpreted. If required “by the tasks of operational and intelligence activities”; it's not permission to get a winter home in Majorca.

SNOWDEN. He was granted permanent status residence and says he will apply for citizenship. He's very lucky the timing of his passport pull set him down in Russia – one of the few countries that has the will and muscle to defy Washington. Otherwise he'd be sharing the fate of Assange.

PC AND WOKENESS. An interesting essay arguing that the USA is repeating some Russian "follies".

THE DOSSIER. I was always sure it was made up but I thought there were no actual Russians involved. Turns out there were actual passport-holding Russians, now quarrelling, involved in the invention. Of course, should Biden win, all this will be forgotten and Rachel Maddow's version will become The Truth. But no Russian fiddling this time we are assured.

BREXIT. Oh, and Putin didn't do that either. But people got airtime and a few quid out of saying he did.

WESTERN VALUES™. The country that judges other countries' elections just had an election. Somebody won. One day a court will tell us who. Apparently counting votes is a tremendously difficult task, requiring enormous amounts of time.

BELARUS. A source suggests that the head of the SVR was sent to tell Lukashenka that the situation is serious, he should stop blaming outsiders and take responsibility for his mistakes. This, and other indications, suggest Moscow is pushing for a peaceful transfer of power. Anyway, Tikhanovskaya's "ultimatum" came and went without effect.

CHICKENS, HOME, ROOST. "...we have repeatedly warned our French partners of the dangers posed by terrorists of North Caucasian origin, while they accepted them as 'fighters for freedom'". "The extremists in this case are more cunning, clever and stronger than you, and if you play these games with them, you will always lose."

BIRTHRATES. We always hear about how Russians are disappearing but the fact is that turning West is much worse for your birthrate: for example the Baltics. Now we have some Ukraine numbers: 40% decline in the birthrate since the Maidan coup. Really, all Moscow has to do, if it covets the territory, is wait a couple of decades and then move into a forest with a few nursing homes scattered though it.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 22 OCTOBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

(This, BTW, is the 802^nd Sitrep – forgot to count. The first was in March 1997)

WAAAY HARSH! Putin is only worried about catching a cold at the West's funeral.

SOMETHING ELSE from the country that doesn't make anything. First of the new project 22220 class on its way to Murmansk: most powerful icebreaker ever made.

COVECONOMICS. IMF predictions are out. I am fascinated to see that it predicts Russia will do better (less badly) than anyone in the G7 or Euroland. China is set to grow a bit.

CLUELESS. Paul Robinson reminds us that so many Western "experts" haven't a clue: Putin is popular because Russians think he's doing a good job, not because "state TV" tells them he is.

RUSSIA-EU. I've long wondered when or whether Moscow will decide it isn't worth wasting its time talking to the West. Maybe it's about to start with the EU. A cheap and easy case to make its first step.

ENEMIES. A recent Levada poll shows 82% of respondents think Russia has enemies: 70% name USA, 14% Ukraine, 10% UK, 7% EU, 7% Poland. Only half as many thought it had enemies in 1994.

KARABAKH. A Russian-brokered ceasefire failed immediately. But I get the impression that the fighting has stalemated and sooner or later Moscow will be required. It's one of Stalin's little cartographic jokes that has come back to make trouble. One should be aware that there are three pieces of territory. Armenia proper; the former Nagorniy-Karabakh AO – largely ethnic Armenian; the Azerbaijan territories conquered by NK two decades ago. Moscow is obliged to protect the first if attacked – which it has not been and for that reason likely won't be; the second needs some creative diplomacy to make the inhabitants feel secure (and the involvement of Ankara takes them straight back to the massacres a century ago and reinforces their conviction that their forever enemy are the Turks), the third is unquestionably Azerbaijan territory. (Moscow taught Erdoğan a very sharp lesson in 2015; love to know what discussions are going on in the background.)

START. Obama prolonged it as a sort of gentleman's agreement; but I don't think it's going to survive. For one thing, the US negotiator lives in cloud cuckoo land. But – maybe – a development.

CORRUPTION. I've long thought that corruption is a much more complicated subject than it's usually presented as and that we, on our side, might well have more invisible corruption than Russia. Read this and see what you think. And the Pelosis bought a piece of Crowdstrike – well, just... gosh! Of course, if it's not reported by the NYT it didn't happen, did it?

THE WISDOM OF RETIREES. MI6 head told us Russia was a "standing threat" "fundamental threat". Retired, he tells us not to exaggerate. I attempt to explain the appearance of reality upon retirement here.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. "Scrambling their brains", Well.... I guess it does recognise the phenomenon of scrambled brains even if the explanation is a bit of a re-run. Heres' the story from one of the usual sources. Remember the crickets? Of course it's primarily anti-Trump agitprop: "the victims are left wondering why so little is being done by the Trump administration". It's all so idiotically transparent. (And anything you hear about H--- B--- is Russian disinformation and not really a story).

USA. Sure are a lot of pieces like this: America on cusp of a Civil War. Or this; this; this; and, especially, this. "For those who have followed events outside the United States during the past few decades, much of this sounds familiar. We’ve seen it before – inflicted on other countries". If the US itself is suffering a colour revolution, what happens to the colour revolutions in other places? If the USA is tied up in severe civil strife, secession movements, accusations of election fraud, lawfare and the like, in the background of a faltering economy, COVID and forever wars, it will take a lot of pressure off Russia. (Starting to sound a bit like the USSR in the 1990s, isn't it?)

RUSSOPHRENIA or or How a Collapsing Country Runs the World. I attempt to catalogue the craziness.

UKRAINE. Letter from three EU parliamentarians – strong supporters and believers – complain: "We cannot but see that the corruption perception in Ukraine in 2020 fell back to the 2017 mark, the praised reforms are backsliding...". What happens when these people finally realise they've been lied to and played for suckers from the start? Will they do anything or go away and just be replaced by new suckers?

FROM LAPUTA'S KITCHENS TO YOU. Fighting the Russians with slingshots. No, Rudi, complete nonsense: Ukraine started out with a big slice of the USSR's heaps of weapons. Like 1000+ tanks, 1000+ AIFVs and so on: Wikipedia list here. A better question is what happened to them?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

A Bidengate summary from the Daily Mail

"Documents appear to show Hunter Biden's signature on $85 receipt for repair of laptops left at Delaware store at center of email scandal - while other paperwork reveals FBI's contact with owner

• A receipt from The Mac Shop in Wilmington, Delaware appears to show Hunter Biden's signature for work on three laptops for $85
• It has not been verified yet if that signature is actually Biden's 
• FBI paperwork also shows that shop owner John Paul Mac Isaac received a subpoena to testify before the US District Court in Delaware in December 2019
• Last week the New York Post published a report saying e-mails obtained from the laptop show Joe Biden allegedly was in on his son Hunter's business deals
• House Intel chair Adam Schiff said the 'smear' on Biden 'comes from the Kremlin' 
• DNI John Ratcliffe said the laptop is not a Russian disinformation campaign 
• Biden's campaign says the Democratic nominee engaged in no wrongdoing "

-------------

Well, pilgrims, he sure looks comfy in the tub.  I still wonder who took the pictures.  Was it the gal in California who later sued him over paternity of her child/fetus, whatever. 

Did he take the pictures himself?  Interestingly, the Bidens have not denied the implicit charge of corruption, bribery, etc., etc. that is the mass of incriminating e-mail traffic on the hard drive.  And then, there are the disgusting sex videos.  Does anyone think that these were faked?

SWMBO says that the Bidens have set a new standard for depraved and addled stupidity.  As usual, she is right.  pl

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8857893/Documents-Hunter-Bidens-signature-Delaware-computer-repair-shop-receipt.html

Murder in Berlin. Did the Russian FSB do it? by J.

In August 2019, Zelimkhan Khangoshvili a former Chechen insurgent commander who had been seeking asylum in Germany, was murdered in Berlin.  The German attorney general's office says the suspect in Khangoshvili's murder, who is identified only as Vadim K. or an alias of Vadim S., is very likely the same man who murdered a Russian businessman in Moscow in 2013.  His suspected accomplice has been identified as a former Russian FSB (Vympel) Officer .

Vadim S. traveling under the guise of a tourist and using a Russian passport, was ID'd by two teens who had seen the individual attempting to dispose of the murder weapon into a river.

Vadim S. ID'd as former Russian FSB (Vympel) named Vadim Krasikov.  Krasikov has a close association with current and former members of the Russian Speznaz, and had spent extended periods of time at a FSB training base outside Moscow.

An investigation team comprised of The Bellincat, with The Insider (Russia) and Der Spiegel (Germany) findings conclude that the assassination of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Berlin was organized by the FSB which used the Vympel group of companies (and the affiliated Regional Association of Former FSB Spetsnaz veterans) for the operation, and as deniable cover. They conclude that the Vympel group of companies is a de facto arm of the FSB earmarked, at least partly, for deniable overseas assassinations. The role of the Vympel group for such targeted assassinations is not dissimilar to the use of Wagner PMC for deniable military operations abroad. FSB’s use of a proxy for overseas illegal operations is different than the modus operandi of the GU.

The Berlin murder trial kicked off this past Wednesday.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/12/03/identifying-the-berlin-bicycle-assassin-part-1-from-moscow-to-berlin/

https://oc-media.org/khangoshvili-murder-trial-kicks-off-in-berlin/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-trial-idUSKBN26S193

J.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 8 OCTOBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

THE STRUGGLE INTENSIFIES. Stalin: "because they are becoming weaker, they feel that their last days are approaching and are compelled to resist with all the forces and all the means in their power". Navalniy, Belarus, Kyrgyz Republic, Armenia-Azerbaijan and another treason arrest. Connected?

SYRIA. Fifth anniversary of Russia's intervention. And successful it has been: a brilliant combination of judiciously applied force, good intelligence, diplomacy and cooperation. And a reminder that, historically, Russians have been pretty good at war. Shoygu sums it up. (Russians like numbers as much as McNamara did – 133K jihadists killed? Let's just say lots.)

SUGGESTION. Putin suggested how to improve Russia-US relations including a formal undertaking not to interfere in each other's internal affairs. VOA coverage sums up the Western (non) reaction. I assume Putin does these things, not because he expects an answer, but for the record and the outside audience.

CHEESE. Among the silliest things ever said about Russia was this by Masha Gessen (one of the silliest purveyor of silliness about Russia): What the Russians Crave: Cheese. Moscow countered the EU sanctions with a food ban; together with a well-planned program of subsidies and grants, it has effected a huge turnaround in Russia's food production. In the 90s it was commonly thought that Russia imported half its food, today it is probably self-sufficient. And so with Gessen's cheese: "it is the third largest producer of cheese after the European Union and the US." Fancy cheeses too. Probably the ur-mistake of the so-called Western experts on Russia is their baked-in conviction that Russia is as they think it is and cannot, ever, change. This despite all the changes in the Putin Team era. But they're paid to believe what they believe to be paid.

MEDIA. Speaking of "Russian experts", RFE/RL six and a half years ago: "The 20 Russian News Outlets You Need To Read Before They Get The Ax". All still there except for No 7. Ah well, change the date and put it out again; no one will notice. Meanwhile, Twitter removes RIA Novosti. A Levada poll shows that, as elsewhere, Russians get less news from TV, newspapers and radio and more from the Net.

WEAPONS. Zircon test. More interesting to see the hit than just the launch, though. New AAMs?

PEOPLE POWER. The protests in Khabarovsk continue. But very weird now: USSR flag, "Sacred War" and current address of the Antichrist. Pretty hard to fit all those into a coherent narrative.

WESTERN VALUES™. "If the necessary information is not provided, then targeted and proportionate sanctions against those responsible on the Russian side will be unavoidable." So much for that sacred Western principle, Russia: if you don't prove you didn't do it, you're guilty. "Freedom, democracy and the rule of law. These values are what define us." Yeah, right.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA I. Trump says he has declassified everything. OK, let's get on with it. But one has to ask if a tree falls in the forest and the NYT doesn't report it, does it make a sound? Or are those who hear the sound debunked conspiracy theorists? And it's probably too late anyway.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA II. Forget actual evidence: the less there is the more proof there is. "Especially clever is planting tales of supposedly far-reaching influence operations that either don’t actually exist or are having little impact." WaPo of course.

US ELECTION. Putin says he can work with either. Translation: "президенты приходят и уходят, а политика не меняется" (Presidents come and go, but the policies don't change).

OOPS! A Ukrainian TV poll on whether Putin should get the Nobel Peace prize: 76% said yes.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Some more steps along an uncertain path. It is principally the relationship with Russia that is the driver (although China and the Muslim lands are factors too). Whatever may have been the case on the past, I don't see that Europe gets much out of its subservience to Washington these days. But the separation will be slow and painful. I suspect Trump may be pushing it. (Gordian Knot 3).

TROUBLE IN PARADISE. In the early cargo-cult phase of EU/NATO aspirations, no one considered the full package. To a large extent the promised riches have been elusive but the globalist "human rights" package has not. I am amused to see that Budapest and Warsaw, targets both, have decided to fight back. What does this have to do with Russia? Well, Russia is the poster-child of a Westphalian world of independent sovereign states while Brussels is the poster-child of the globalist, one-size-fits-all world. Another tiny step.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Moscow Has No Problems With S400 Transfers To Iran Once UNSC Resolution 2231 Expires Oct. 18. by J.

Iran possessing the Russian S400s could prove to be a game changer, especially for Israel.

Sources: 

https://sputniknews.com/military/202010041080661805-air-defence-axis-russia-would-have-no-problem-delivering-s-400s-to-iran/

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/09/iran-russia-military-cooperation-un.html

https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/iran/news/article/iran-jcpoa-joint-statement-by-the-foreign-ministers-of-france-germany-and-the

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/09/iran-sanctions-nuclear-maduro-snapback-pompeo-defense-un.html

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/09/iran-snapback-sanctions-rouhani-fail.html

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/69935/

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/69932/

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/69977/

New Sanctions?

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/09/iran-sanctions-nuclear-maduro-snapback-pompeo-defense-un.html

https://www.state.gov/the-return-of-un-sanctions-on-the-islamic-republic-of-iran/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-regarding-new-restrictions-irans-nuclear-ballistic-missile-conventional-weapons-pursuits/

Israeli Government egging D.C. on

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/09/israel-us-iran-united-arab-emirates-benny-gantz-donald-trump.html

J.

Russia's GU's Creation of a NATO Mole By Honey-trap/Blackmail Means. by J

Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, is today officially known by the acronym GU, and still many refer to it by it's former Soviet acronym, the GRU.  Russia's Military Intelligence.

This story deals with the creation of a NATO mole by the Russian GU through honeytrap/blackmail means.  It involves a former Estonian Soldier Deniss Metsavas, who while still single fell into a honey-trap/blackmail operation that Russia's Military Intelligence had set up to ensnare the Estonian Army artillery specialist. 

 

Source: The Atlantic article

J.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 24 SEPTEMBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. As far as I can see it's pretty much under control in Russia. CNN has a (surprisingly) intelligent discussion; counting is everything (vide: with or from?) and the Russians are stricter on their counting. They also treat early with an effective drug. Meanwhile in the USA and UK, supposedly the best prepared... I recommend Stephen Walt's essay again: The Death of American Competence. And I reiterate: 2020 will go down as the year the West lost its mojo.

MEDICAL. Russian researchers claim to have found a powerful new antibiotic.

HYPERSONIC. Putin said it was the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002 that forced Russia to start designing hypersonic weapons. One of the chief designers, refuting stories that Russia stole the technology from the USA, said research began long ago.

LENIN. A recent poll finds 40% want Lenin's body out of Red Square and buried; 22% want it left there and 17% think it should stay there until last person alive in communist days is gone. Putin's line has always been that it will be moved when a majority wants it so we're not there yet. (I was premature nine years ago). Will the whole of the Communist pantheon on the wall – Stalin and all – have to go too? One of these days...

KAVKAZ-20. Big international exercise. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the 80,000 – Russians tend to count everyone involved, even if at a desk in Moscow.

OOPS. Russian cop who planted marijuana to get his arrest numbers up, becomes an arrest number.

RUSSIA INC. Now the second-largest car market in Europe after Germany.

RT AMUSES ITSELF. Trump's new job post-November. Fun to watch the Trumputin conspiracists' reactions; a humourless bunch.

RUSSIA BASHING. Easy money. Someone should develop a program. Putin's latest victim X, one of a series DATA DUMP. Putin attacks Rules-Based International Order DATA DUMP. And so on.

NAVALNIY. I can't be bothered keeping up with the latest nonsense – John Helmer follows the twists and turns and asks the questions. EG: why would Navalniy thank a diabetes and kidney specialist?

VENEZUELA. It appears that Venezuela's large oil tanker has been switched to Russian ownership. An interesting move. Presumably to reduce the chance of US piracy.

IRAN. A Russian official suggests Moscow will sell arms to Iran as soon as embargo ends on 18 October. I'll bet they're discussing details now. Let me predict: air defence and EW will lead the list.

BELARUS. Still demos. Lukashenka sworn in. EU fails to agree on sanctions.

YEAH, WHATEVER I. Facts just don't matter: re-type whatever "the sources" tell you as long as it's anti-Trump, -Russia, -Iran or -China. Bounties. Trump insulting soldiers. US Ambassador.

YEAH, WHATEVER II. Fine example of what passes for reporting in the USA these days: first the fakery then, at the end, the reality. Finally, in the very last para: "Russia has an exceptionally good track record on managing clinical trials". But who reads to the end?

YEAH, WHATEVER III. "C.I.A. Reasserts Putin Is Likely Directing Election Influence Efforts to Aid US President Trump". And then we're told "The C.I.A. has moderate confidence in its analysis... in part because the intelligence community appears to lack intercepted communications or other direct evidence... ". Now read this and wonder what's going on: "Everyone who works here knows that analytic objectivity is beyond reproach".

THE DEATH OF IRONY. "US must demand equal access to Russian airwaves."

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Macron insists Europe will not compromise over Iran.

BIDEN/UKRAINE. Son of the man at the head of the table? Nothing to see here; move along.

UNGA SPEECHES. Interesting to compare; Putin and Xi about cooperation; Trump boasting and hostility (par for the course – here's Obama in 2015.) Sure it's PR from the first two but effective in comparison. The so-called Rules-Based International Order is dying of failure.

NEW NWO. I note that Beijing is becoming much tougher in its statements (check this video). Moscow's countermoves are also becoming more direct – as we see with the latest moves on the Venezuelan tanker and arms sales to Iran. I guess they feel that the correlations of forces is shifting. I think they're right: the USA seems to be heading for really dramatic domestic problems. Lots of talk, anyway, from both sides.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 10 SEPTEMBER 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Latest numbers: total cases 1046K; total deaths 18,263; tests per 1 million 270K. Russia has done 39.5 million tests (fourth after China, USA and India); among countries with populations over 10M it's done the most tests per million. Lancet paper on Russian vaccine. Photographs of the vaccine production line. Claims that Surfactant drugs are effective treatment. A machine capable of detecting numerous pathogens including COVID-19 unveiled.

CAR CRASH. The famous actor Efremov was given an 8-year sentence for causing fatal car crash.

TREASON. A military historian and reservist has been imprisoned on charges of high treason; no details given and the trial was in camera. There have been several recent trials. I wonder what's going on. Renewed attacks on Russia, or a decision to clean things up?

NAVALNIY. Notice Novichok doesn't need people in hazmat suits this time? Noticed the mysterious bottle? (Helmer and Cunningham have). Hard to keep the lies straight – another hole in Skripalmania.

CONTEMPT. Now they come right out and tell us they think we're stupider than pond scum: "a variant that the world did not know until this attack, but which is said to be more malicious and deadly than all known offshoots of the Novichok family... The fact that he is still alive... is only due to a chain of happy circumstances."

IN THE COUNTRY THAT MAKES NOTHING. "The President drove an Aurus limousine along a newly-built section of the Taurida motorway."

UBI. Medvedev, leader of the majority party, floats the idea of universal basic income. Something to watch.

VODKA. Continues its decline as Russia's booze of choice. Another change to the Russia of clichés.

AGRICULTURE. Short piece on how effectively Russia has used sanctions and counter sanctions to make its agricultural sector an important international player. It's been a stunning achievement in fact and unimaginable in the 1990s – I remember an agricultural guy then just shaking his head. I reiterate – Russia, far from being the feeble and failing entity described by Western propaganda, is the closest thing to an autarky on the planet today. Twenty years of peace and you won't recognise Russia.

THE HUMBLE SOYBEAN. China imports a lot from the USA. But, given the way things are going, it's probably reconsidering: Commerce Minister Zhong calls for a "soybean industry alliance" with Russia.

DOOM AVERTED. AGAIN. Russia's military, formerly "hamstrung" by lack of parts from Ukraine, has replaced the lack. COVID-19 didn't finish Russia and Putin off. Relying on Western coverage of Russia makes you more ignorant. Continuing to, failure after failure, makes you stupid.

RATINGS. New Levada poll puts Putin back in the high 60s.

ANOTHER ONE. The Admiral Nakhimov (remember seeing it in the distance in the 1990s) put in water after years of reconstruction. Prestigious-looking ships packed with weapons.

COOLEST PLANE EVER. Is back. Did you know it's actually younger than the American B-52?

PROBABLY NOT A COINCIDENCE. Film of biggest nuclear weapon ever declassified.

WESTERN VALUES™. Navalniy. Assange. MH17 trial. Meng. Sacoolas. Sterling examples all.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA I. "Vote because Russian lessons are expensive". But suppose Putin doesn't care whether you speak Russia as long as you obey? But see below – Farsi is probably a better choice.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA II. China Russia and Iran are "are seeking to disrupt our election". Has there ever been such a fearful superpower? I still bet that Tehran will make the choice because the other two will cancel each other out.

PROBLEMS WITH THE NARRATIVE. Remember when we said Russia was dangerously fast tracking its vaccine? Forget we said that.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Pompeo says the European Allies "chose to side with the Ayatollahs". Time to sanction them all I guess.

BELARUS. The shape of the settlement is appearing: a referendum on constitutional changes; Lukashenka steps down; new election; solid alliance with Russia.

UKRAINE. A poll shows 49% distrust and 44% trust President Zelensky. Not so surprising: he hasn't delivered on anything. Not that anybody would let him. Ukraine continues its misery.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Haggia Sophia reborn.

" The city of Al-Sqaylabiyeh in western Hama witnessed the foundation of the stone laying ceremony for the symbolic Hagia Sophia Church, which will be a replica of the mother cathedral of Hagia Sophia in Turkey.

The ceremony was held in the presence of Syrian and Russian officials, in addition to religious figures from the people of the region.

It was written on the foundation stone of the symbolic church:

“During the reign of President Bashar Hafez Al-Assad, President of the Syrian Arab Republic, the blessing of the Bishop of Hama and its subordinates Nikolaos Ba’albaki and the blessing of the Russian Federation represented by the commander of the Russian forces operating in the Syrian Arab Republic, General Alexander Yuryevich Chaiko, laying the foundation stone of the Hagia Sophia Church, introduction From Nabel Shafiq Al-Abdullah, on the authority of the martyrs of Sqaylabiyeh, Syria, and its allies, and a tribute to the Great Hagia Sophia.

This step was supported and blessed by the Orthodox Christian religious leaders in both Syria and Russia, and they considered it a step of solidarity with the mother Church of Hagia Sophia, and an assurance that the Turkish President will not be able to obliterate the features of this global impact on the list of UNESCO, which played a central role in Christian history over the course of 1500 years old.”"

-------------

The symbolic nature of this construction of a replica of Haggia Sophia is of interest.  The Syrian government is the protector of the Christian and other minorities in the country.  Many people from those minorities serve in or alongside the Syrian  Army in the fight against the Sunni jihadi monsters.

Russia will help fund the construction and the new church will have the blessing of both the Syrian and Russian Orthodox churches.

I suppose that this development will anger the Israelis, the US Ziocons and such creatures as Pompey and Jeffries.  Good!

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-city-lays-foundation-for-replica-of-hagia-sophia-cathedral/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagia_Sophia

Former Army Captain Charged In Russian Espionage Conspiracy by J.

Peter Rafael Dzibinski Debbins was arrested Friday.

“According to the allegations, Mr. Debbins knowingly provided information to self-proclaimed members of Russia's Intelligence Service, the GRU,” said James A. Dawson, Acting Assistant Director in Charge of the FBI Washington Field Office. “As a member of the U.S. Armed Forces, the American people and his fellow service men and women should have been able to trust Debbins with secrets and information. Debbins allegedly fell very short of that and exploited his role in the military and his fellow service members to benefit one of our top adversaries for years. Today’s charges are another example of the dedicated and unrelenting efforts of the FBI and our partners, domestic and international, to aggressively pursue and bring to justice those who violate this sacred trust and place our national security at risk.”

DOJ release:

"From the DOJ press release:  According to court documents, from December 1996 to January 2011, Peter Rafael Dzibinski Debbins, 45, a former member of the U.S. Army, allegedly conspired with agents of a Russian intelligence service. During that time, Debbins periodically visited Russia and met with Russian intelligence agents. In 1997, Debbins was assigned a code name by Russian intelligence agents and signed a statement attesting that he wanted to serve Russia."

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-army-special-forces-officer-charged-russian-espionage-conspiracy

Indictment:

https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1307186/download

J.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20 AUGUST 2020 By Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Latest numbers: total cases 942K; total deaths 16,099; tests per 1 million 229K. Russia has done 33.5 million tests (third after China and USA); among countries with populations over 10M it's done the most tests per million.

SPUTNIK VACCINE. Bernhard covers the meretricious headlines in the Western media. CNN's deduction is especially irrelevant "Putin and his interests are routinely supported by an unbelievable three quarters of voters. Three-quarters of Americans don't agree on much of anything". The foundation the vaccine is built on. Production photos. Official website so you can see for yourself what they claim.

WARNING. In what we must assume an official statement, two senior officers state that any incoming ballistic missile will be assumed to be a nuclear attack. So this is where we are after low-yield nukes, Obama's modernisation program and killing arms control treaties. Balance of terror and MAD return.

SAME SAME. Navalniy "poisoned". Again. He does appear to be seriously sick this time, though.

PRISONS. Russia has a large prison population, but has been gradually reducing it. It has fallen below 500K which is about half what it was twenty years ago. But still high by European standards.

MEDIA. "There is more diversity of thought - and criticism of government foreign policy - in the Russian mainstream print media than the American equivalent. That's a fact." (Brian MacDonald, an Irish reporter working for RT and living in Russia.)

EDUCATION. Russian universities rank low. USA UK rank best in pandemics. Ranking lists are GIGO.

US TROOP WITHDRAWAL. 12K out of Germany, half to USA, 1000 to Poland, rest stay in Europe.

THE DEATH OF IRONY. Twitter has decided to label "state media" starting with the P5. Amazingly enough, only two of the five qualify to be labelled. RFE/RL ("funded by the U.S. Congress") is not. BBC World Service (government-funded) is not. And so on. Gaslighting.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA I. "Pillars of Russia’s Disinformation and Propaganda Ecosystem". Everything on Russian media is controlled by Putin. Everything Rachel Maddow says about Putin is true. Anyone who questions this is a dupe or puppet. Repeat for 77 pages. Senate report: ditto but take 1000 pages.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA II. “Russia is backing Donald Trump, China is supporting Joe Biden and Iran is seeking to sow chaos in the U.S. presidential election…”. I guess that means that Russia and China will cancel each other out and Iran will choose the winner.

BELARUS. Obviously another colour revolution directed from outside. Lukashenka won the election (not by 80% – my guesstimate – 60% or so) but a lot of people are tired of him. He tried to play both sides but now understands that the West wants him dead or gone and only Putin can save him; that is why he has invoked the Union Treaty. And there is the military alliance. So, if Belarus's independence is threatened from the outside (as it is) Moscow can intervene on request. The Russian mercenary story was a (typically incompetent) SBU plot; all are back in Russia. The West sternly warns Lukashenka not to shoot protesters in the eye with rubber bullets or kneel on their necks. (Pompeo, when asked if it's hypocrisy: "Even your question is insulting.") I expect the colour revolution to fail but Lukashenka will, as they used to say, "retire at his own request for health reasons". Putin told Merkel and Macron outside interference was "unacceptable" (strong language for him). Lukashenka has told the Interior Ministry to restore order. Two facts you may not know: Lukashenka says he was offered a World Bank loan if he did a COVID lockdown and Belarus is important for OBOR. A third: the white-red-white flag the protesters all seem to have (another sign of a colour revolution – where do they all come from so suddenly?) was used by nazi collaborators. (The conductors of these performances really have no idea, do they? Belarus lost a quarter of its population in the war).

MOSCOW AND BELARUS. Moscow doesn't care what kind of government Belarus has. Become part of Russia? Nice, maybe, someday; but not if its economy is a drain. What Moscow will not permit (and the treaties give it the entry) are Belarus becoming 1) a hostile military alliance base 2) a constant source of problems. Moscow would have been perfectly happy with a neutral, independent and prosperous Ukraine. (And in retrospect, I'll bet most of the supporters of Maidan would prefer it too).

BELARUS AND ITS NEIGHBOURS. Not leaking population like the Baltics. Much better off than Ukraine. No wars like Russia. OK there's Poland, but it got enormous help from the EU (and still does). Not such a paltry record, is it?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 6 AUGUST 2020 By Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Latest numbers: total cases 870K; total deaths 14,606; tests per 1 million 203K. Russia has done 29.7 million tests (third after China and USA); among countries with populations over 10M it's second in tests per million and of those over 100M first. The Health Minister says mass vaccinations will begin by October. Has Russia really won the vaccine race? this researcher believes so and gives his explanation.

KHABAROVSK. Protests continue (video of Sunday's). A lot of things going on: Furgal was popular, his replacement, while from the LDPR, is unknown in the area, Khabarovsk feels ignored (Moscow is only 700kms closer than Vancouver), outside activists coming in, corruption. Moscow has handled it badly.

RUSSIA INC. Despite the usual predictions from the usual sources, Russia Inc is healthy: big FOREX kitty; low debts. And, furthermore, it's about the closest thing to an autarky that exists today. Entertaining argument that it can only get better in the rest of the year. It's just been suggested that there may be even more money available in a couple of oil and gas companies.

PUTINOLOGY. Sarkozy and Bill Clinton agree: he always keeps his word. I agree after years of observation: he says what he means and means what he says.

CHURCH. Some of the Church's officials live very well indeed. An Abbess was requested to sell her Mercedes. This is drawing some attention. The Patriarch says such speculations "are designed to prevent the spread of God’s word". Which is not an entirely satisfactory response. In the Yeltsin days the ROC was given a piece of the action of certain imports (tobacco for one) so as to fund itself. That seems to have stopped and revenue today comes from the state, sale of articles for church use and some business entities. Scandals come up from time to time and are forgotten as this one probably will be too. The wealth of religious organisations is not, of course, just an issue with the ROC.

FOREIGN CONNECTIONS. A Constitutional amendment prohibits certain officials from having foreign

citizenship or residency permits. A KPRF Deputy says 39 Deputies from the pedestal party have; the Speaker has promised to look into it. Some one else has published a list of officials with a second passport. Quite a few; something to watch: presumably they formally renounce these things or are fired.

MOON. The Roscosmos head says that Russia and China are likely to build a Moon research base. Another sign neither sees Washington as reliable. I note Beijing is becoming blunter: a "bully" "undermining international law and order" "reckless provocation" "conspiracy theories".

MILITARY. Airborne exercise video and a reminder that they're the only one that routinely drops AFVs. Eastern Military District. Mediterranean. Sea of Japan. Black Sea. Baltic. Practice and messages.

BEIRUT DISASTER. First Russian aid arrived yesterday, more coming today.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Source of The Dossier finally revealed – unimpressive, to put it mildly. Interesting link with Fiona Hill and Brookings. Even the CIA thought it was junk but the FBI insisted. Comey "went rogue". (Are we ever going to get to the arrest and handcuff phase of this so that even WaPo and NYT readers can learn what happened?)

DOUMA. The Douma fake CW attack, the FUKUS attack, leaks from the OPCW and its cover-up finally hit the MSM thanks to Aaron Maté and The Nation. Neither fake attack nor coverup news to my readers.

BELARUS. Pretty mystifying. The Russians-sent-to-destabilise story is absurd (vide.) I know that Lukashenka has been playing Russia and the West, I see signs of a "colour revolution" (colours. Slogans). I've heard that the arrested Russians were on their way to be security guards for a facility in Libya. Now Lukashenka says US citizens have been arrested and that Putin's his "elder brother". It's smelling to me like a Western regime change operation that hasn't been very well prepared. I would expect Lukashenka to prevail and suggest he check his immediate entourage.

GERMANY-USA. Little by little the split grows. Some recent German polls show good support for American troop reduction. And good support for reducing dependence on the USA and improving relations with Russia.

FREUDIAN SLIP. "So we can all deter Russia and avoid peace in Europe".

NORDSTREAM. Washington huffs and puffs, last opposition from Copenhagen over.

PROBLEMS WITH THE NARRATIVE. Sloppy, sloppy: the latest UK Russian hacker story debunks itself: documents reported in UK media two days before "Russian hackers" "hacked" them!

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 23 JULY 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Latest numbers: total cases 795K; total deaths 12,892; tests per 1 million 178K. Russia has done 26 million tests (third after China and USA); among countries with populations over 10M it's second in tests per million and of those over 100M first. Russia claims to have a working vaccine that is safe and reliable and that produced antibodies in all who were tested. Mishustin expressed confidence to the Duma. In an amazing development Newsweek actually published this "What Russia Got Right About the Coronavirus—and What It Can Share With The World".

KHABAROVSK. Two weeks ago the FSB arrested Sergey Furgal, governor of Khabarovsk Region, on suspicion of organizing murders in 2004 and 2005. He was one of the few governors not from the pedestal party but from the LDPR. Furgal was quite popular and there have been significant protests. Doctorow discusses the background: one of his conclusions is that there are misgivings in the Russian Far East about Moscow's closeness with Beijing. Protest numbers have probably been exaggerated, but are still significant. Perhaps the appointment of another LDPR member as acting governor will calm things down. We will see. A terrorist plot in Khabarovsk was just prevented: would it be too cynical to wonder whether Moscow is telling the good citizens of Khabarovsk how valuable it is to them?

RUSSIA INC. Despite everything, Russia's FOREX and gold kitty keeps growing – now worth 569 billion USD. Of course, quite a bit is the increase in the price of its gold holdings (about 2300 tonnes).

RUSSIA-EXERCISE. Snap combat readiness test of Southern Military District. Kinzhal launch. Video. Not aimed at anybody or anything, just routine, blah blah blah, but, should anyone be watching...

CHINA. Another conversation between the two presidents about their "comprehensive strategic partnership". China FM Wang told Lavrov the USA had "lost its mind, morals and credibility".

NYT BIAS. Historian David Foglesong has written a piece about the long-time Russophobia of the NYT: "propaganda…is not necessarily untrue.… It is a method of emphasis calling attention to that which it is desired to have known". It is desired to have known. Free media indeed.

WESTERN VALUES™. Today's bloviation: "America is fundamentally good... America, uniquely among nations, has the capacity to champion human rights and the dignity of every human being made in the image of God, no matter their nation... And to the world, America is the star that shines brightest when the night is the darkest...". And so on. Does any other country said this sort of thing routinely?

MEDDLING. The CIA has been authorised to make cyberattacks on other countries including Russia. You only do this if you think you're better at it than your targets; otherwise you've just stuck a kick me sign on your back. Are the Americans better at this? Doubt it.

NORDSTREAM 2. Washington is going all out in sanctions; Bonn is determined to finish it. Well, Washington is going to lose this one; then what?

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. All lies. "The statements by Mr. Strzok question the entire premise of the FBI's investigation of the Trump Campaign and make it even more outrageous that the Mueller team continued this investigation for almost two and a half years. Moreover, the statements by Strzok raise troubling questions as to whether the FBI was impermissibly unmasking and analyzing intelligence gathered on U.S. persons."

STEELE. Troubles are catching up to him. He just lost a court case in the UK against two Russian bankers over claims he made in the infamous Dossier. The fines plus court costs may bankrupt his company. And more revelations about the worthlessness of the sources of the junk in the famous Dossier. Bit late for this to come out – anybody with a bit of nous knew it was garbage from the start.

BUT THEY'RE STILL AT IT. The UK report is the same old crap from the same old sources (Steele too!) – don't pay it any attention. GIGO. Flying vampire bats with smart phones. (And Soviet stars – natch.)

NUGGETS FROM THE STUPIDITY MINE. Today's story is that Russian big wheels were getting the vaccine months ago, I guess we're supposed to forget last week's story that Russia was trying to steal our vaccine.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Why do Russia's enemies fall from balconies? Oops! Can we re-write that?

HISTORY. "Canada’s Nazi Monuments". And don't think there aren't policy implications today.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 9 JULY 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Latest numbers: total cases 707K; total deaths 10843; tests per 1 million 151K. Russia has done 22 million tests (third after China and USA); among countries with populations over 10M it's second in tests per million and of those over 100M first. RT reports a survey finding that most Russian physicians are sceptical of the official numbers. Its counting rule is strict; a looser rule would create bigger numbers: I don't take any numbers very seriously. (Vide chaotic UK counting.)

CONSTITUTION. Passed comfortably. The ads I saw varied between happy families and – the one projected on the US Embassy facade – in 1993 we were yours and now we're ours. Sums up the main changes. As to the term reset many argue that it is designed to kill any succession in-fighting (or foreign fiddling): even if Putin quits after this term, he can still come back. I still see it as a cheap trick.

ESPIONAGE. Ivan Safronov was arrested on Tuesday and charged with espionage. The claim is that he passed information on weapons sales to the Middle East and Africa to Czech intelligence which then passed it the the USA. He denies the charges. He had worked for several newspapers covering space and defence and had been hired by RosKosmos in May. The authorities say they had been watching him for several years (from which we can deduce that the information passed on was probably false – the Russians are very very good at this). Meanwhile it has been officially denied that an exchange is been considered for Whelan (which, I guess, means that it either is or isn't).

MH17 TRIAL. Hops along to its pre-ordained conclusion: "'The relevant records relate to the years 1986 and 1987,' the judge claimed. 'In that light, the court does not see how interviewing this witness [Konashenkov] can contribute to the question of where a specific missile mentioned in that record is located'". So we're not going to look at the provenance of the conveniently discovered missile bits; wouldn't suit the guilty verdict. A farce.

DEJA POO. Let's make up a story that 1) keeps the Russia enemy theme going 2) can be used to harm Trump 3) will stymie negotiations to get out of Afghanistan and 4) fool the simple-minded. Should run for a week or two and then we'll come up with something else. Meanwhile, in the real world, survivors or families are suing US companies that paid protection money to Taliban.

ICEBREAKERS. Russia starts an even bigger one. Russia dominates the icebreaker business.

WADA YA KNOW. Der Spiegel dares to question the US/Canadian Russia mass doping story.

MORE SANCTIONS. The UK has just revealed new sanctions against Russians (and others). Moscow says it will retaliate.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Shrinks or slammer. Once the West's darling. Do you think HRW will get excited about this "sinister reminder of the Soviet legacy of punitive psychiatry"?

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Every time I think the insanity has reached the top, somebody shoves it up another notch, the "Lincoln Project" with this absurdity. But then that is surpassed by some Democrat politician: "Wakes up every morning, goes to be every night trying to figure out how to destroy American democracy." And these people are spectacularly ignorant: Russia is bulging with new infrastructure; even the Moscow Times reports it. Americans get in a tizzy over their enemy du jour but when they kill him (Qaddafi, Hussein) or jail him (Milosevic) they calm down. How much more frenzied can they get?

NEW NWO. Interesting poll about COVID: about half the Europeans polled thought the EU had been irrelevant; 60% said they thought less of the US than before. The pollster concluded that "Europeans have lost faith in the United States in its power and competence to lead the world".

BIO-LABORATORY. In Tbilisi. What's the story? Russian Foreign Ministry expresses concern. Russian disinformation. Perfectly OK says Washington. Sinister purposes say other Americans. Even creepier says investigative reporter. I don't know, but if the purposes are benign, why can't they be done at home? Fauci-funded gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses in Wuhan?? USAF admits to collecting Russian genetic material?? Some serious questions here, I think. Certainly one could understand Moscow and Beijing taking a mistrustful view.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Nordstream advances. Washington contemplates sanctions, Berlin, committed to it, bites back. Merkel says Europe has to prepare for a future in which USA not a world power. Schroeder says the sanctions would mark the "definite termination of the Transatlantic partnership". Copenhagen gives approval for the final bits. An important defiance of Washington's diktat.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

“Russia offered bounties to Afghan militants to kill US troops” - TTG

(CNN) - Russian intelligence officers for the military intelligence GRU recently offered money to Taliban militants in Afghanistan as rewards if they killed US or UK troops there, a European intelligence official told CNN.

The official was unclear as to the precise Russian motivation, but said the incentives had, in their assessment, led to coalition casualties. The official did not specify as to the date of the casualties, their number or nationality, or whether these were fatalities or injuries. "This callous approach by the GRU is startling and reprehensible. Their motivation is bewildering," the official said.

This story was first reported by the New York Times.

US intelligence concluded months ago that Russian military intelligence offered the bounties, amid peace talks, the New York Times reported Friday. Citing officials briefed on the matter, the Times reported that President Donald Trump was briefed on the intelligence findings and that the White House's National Security Council held a meeting about it in late March.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said in a statement Saturday that the President and Vice President Mike Pence were not briefed "on the alleged Russian bounty intelligence." McEnany said her statement "does not speak to the merit of the alleged intelligence but to the inaccuracy of the New York Times story," which said Trump had been briefed. McEnany did not deny the validity of the reported US intelligence that a Russian intelligence unit offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants to carry out attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan  (CNN)

————

Russia denies the story in its entirety. That’s to be expected. The Washington Post, Wall sStreet Journal, CNN and Sky News back up the NYT reporting through their sources. The White House doesn’t deny the intelligence reporting, but denies Trump was in the loop. McEnany’s insistence that Trump is clueless about this is either a damning indictment of the Trump administration or a damned lie. Either way, it’s not good. At any rate, it does appear this is another serious leak of classified information within the White House. That’s also not good.

So was Trump kept in the dark by his NSC? Did he just refuse to believe the IC reporting? Or did he not know whether to shit or go blind? Did he decide to keep this out of the public eye and quietly confront Putin about this episode in the continuing shadow war. That would be a reasonable response. Totally unsatisfying to me, our military and most of the American public, but reasonable from a realpolitik point of view.

Russia’s alleged action is not near as heinous as it may sound. Remember, we supported and supplied the Mujahideen with weapons to kill Soviet soldiers while they were in the process of withdrawing from Afghanistan. It does show that Russia is not our friend and Putin is not Trump’s friend. It doesn’t mean we have to go to war with each other, but we should realize our relationship is not akin to a herd of glitter fartin’ unicorns prancing across the rainbow bridge. 

TTG

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/27/politics/russia-us-troops-afghanistan/index.html

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 25 JUNE 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Latest numbers: total cases 613K; total deaths 8605; tests per 1 million 124K. Russia has done 18 million tests (second after USA); among countries with populations over 10M it's second in tests per million and of those over 100M first. Scientists claim to have a vaccine; tests should be complete by end of July. Putin address: improving but still some bad regions; description of what government did; extension of some special payments. GDP fell 12% in April when "holiday" was begun.

OIL WARS. Seem to be pretty much over. But futures are still low for Saudi Arabia and US fracking.

TAX. For two decades Russia has had a flat income tax of 13% . A brilliant move when introduced, it ended widespread tax evasion almost instantly. But in the speech above, Putin said it will be bumped to 15% for people with incomes over 5 million RUR (US$71K). But still simple and pretty flat.

VICTORY PARADE. Held on the 75th anniversary of the first one. Video. Can't get these numbers out of my head: Germany invades June 1941; three years later Operation Bagration annihilates Army Group Centre; a year later Soviet soldiers sight-see in Berlin. Has there ever been so quick a turnaround? (Well... Napoleon invaded Russia June 1812, the Russian Army entered Paris March 1814 and invented the bistro. Seems to be a historical lesson there...)

VICTORY. A VTsIOM poll shows 95% think that it was the most significant event for Russia of the 20th Century and 69% think the most significant event in Russian history.

SANCTIONS. "We are not asking for sanctions to be lifted. We are simply improving our resilience and self-reliance." And so they have; and the newest US sanctions on Syria will be a gift to Iran.

VISAS. It is reported that the simple e-visas for visitors will be extended to all Russia starting next year. ABCA probably excluded.

A WIN. Two years ago the Russian authorities ordered the social app Telegram to give up its secrets; it refused; the authorities ordered it shut down; people kept using it; the authorities have given up after a sort of compromise.What's the difference? Well, in our part of the world the social media doesn't resist. Yet another of the many reversals of behaviour I've seen since I started in the business in 1984.

INFRASTRUCTURE. Moscow Metro has got quite a bit bigger in ten years.

VIDEO. Short video of Russian scenes and scenery.

PAUL WHELAN. Sentenced to 16 years for espionage; reports that an exchange is being worked out.

WEAPONS. A new Borey-A SLBM Knyaz Vladimir accepted into the Navy. Several new Army weapons shown at the parade. A Ukrainian looked at the equipment on parade and and asked his countrymen how they can believe they're facing that army in the Donbass; sure would notice one of these things.

GAPS. MacDonald uses a car crash to show the attitude gap between Russian elites and the "little people". But he has been arrested and could face 12 years. We'll see.

SKRIPALMANIA. "5 Facts BBC’s 'The Salisbury Poisonings' Forgot to Mention", "the only word for that is a miracle". Propaganda for stupid people with short attention spans.

LESSONS OF THE WAR. Putin's piece published in National Interest. Official text English, Russian. Apart from an unwillingness to acknowledge that territorial acquisitions in 1939 and 1940 were made to gain strategic space, I see nothing wrong with it. All of it was mentioned by AJP Taylor years ago.

HACKING. Don't need cunning Russian hackers when incompetence gets the job done.

START. Talks began in Vienna with a childish stunt by the American side. I wouldn't expect any results: the Americans are fatally deluded. As for the Russians: "We don’t believe the U.S. in its current shape is a counterpart that is reliable, so we have no confidence, no trust whatsoever".Russian has a word for that: недоговороспособны and it's characterised US behaviour since at least this event (in Obama's time). Can't make an agreement with them and, even if you do, they won't keep it.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. From Canada. Short version: everything we say or do is true; Putin the opposite. ("Mueller indicted Mr. Prigozhin and the Internet Research Agency for 'waging information warfare against the United States of America'". Oopsies! ) From the Baker of the Maidan Don't waste your time on the original, Mark Chapman has done the work for you.

BELARUS. Colour revolution in progress? For what it's worth Lukashenko was in Moscow for the parade and is confident it has been thwarted.

WESTERN VALUES™. Hashim Thaci indicted for war crimes. NATO gave him a country.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 11 JUNE 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Latest numbers: total cases 502K; total deaths 6532; tests per 1 million 95K. Russia has done 13.8 million tests (second after USA); among countries with populations over 10M it's second in tests per million and of those over 100M first. Moscow city lockdown and ID pass system ended on Tuesday. Russian developers register a drug that may help alleviate the worst symptoms.

COVID COUNTING. The usual suspects are convinced that Russia's lying (the accusation is a pitiful attempt to cover up the failure of the "two best-prepared countries") but I don't believe anything Western outlets say about Russia. But Moscow city has published numbers that may explain things. 15,713 deaths in Moscow in May; three-year average is 9914; therefore excess of 5799. They calculate 2757 had COVID as the main cause of death but it was present in 5260 deaths. Therefore, as I suspected, it's a counting issue: died of versus died with. In any case, even at the larger number, the deaths are far fewer than elsewhere. A new theory to add to the others is that there are fewer old people, thanks to high mortality rates in the Soviet days, and Russians don't generally put them in nursing homes (the source of large proportion of deaths in Western countries.)

CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM. Now set for 1 July. Wikipedia has a summary article and tells us that the vote will be a yes or no on the whole package. Some advertising billboards. Polls suggest the package will pass but not by big numbers.

GENETICS. Putin has told the government to ensure creation of Russian-made laboratory and scientific equipment for research in genetics. Remember the report that the USAF was collecting genetic material of Russians? I think COVID has made Moscow and Beijing rather thoughtful. Teheran too.

OIL WARS. Oil futures are creeping up. OPEC+ has agreed to extend the production cuts to the end of July. So, I guess if there was some attempt by Riyadh to crush US shale and Russian oil, it failed. Who won? Russia did: prices are back in Russia's comfort zone. The Power of Siberia pipeline has sent 1.58 billion M3 of natural gas to China in the last 6 months. The icebreaker LNG ship is on its way to China via the Northern Sea Route.

MONOPOLY. With Dragon's successful docking, Russia has lost its monopoly on taxi service to the ISS.

PERSONALLY I think Moscow is commenting with considerable restraint as the USA learns about colour revolutions first hand. Read this from the Atlantic: "The Trump Regime Is Beginning to Topple". "Regime". Wow, eh?

START. Russia-US talks will begin in Vienna on the 22nd. Beijing says it won't be there. The US side is so deluded that I doubt much will happen. (BTW the US "super duper missile" just failed.)

THE DEATH OF IRONY. Russia Sends More Troops West, Challenging U.S.-NATO Presence Near Borders.

NUGGETS FROM THE STUPIDITY MINE. "Before Donald Trump, Russia Needed 60 Hours To Beat NATO—Now Moscow Could Win Much Faster" Forbes tells us. The assumption is that Russia would grab the Baltics and stop there. I know the author is just shilling for the weapons makers but, if you assume your audience is really stupid, you become stupider – a race to the bottom of the mine.

MH17. It looks as if all the prosecution has is stuff from Kiev and Bellingcat. So much for Kerry's "we observed it". So will the court find the defendants not guilty or continue with the farce? Speaking of "our values and way of life".

CHINA IS THE NEW RUSSIA. You'd think NATO would be busy enough but it's time to add China to the enemy list: the threat posed by China to "our values and way of life".

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. A Republican caucus group from the legislature of "the greatest force for good the world has ever known" has decided that Russia should be named a "state sponsor of terrorism" and hit with "the toughest sanctions ever imposed". But it doesn't accuse Moscow of fiddling elections; I guess that particular sector of the delusion is reserved for the other side of the aisle.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. Sure, we don't need evidence – there's the "playbook".

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Germany rejects US extraterritorial sanctions against Nord Stream 2; a German politician suggests Berlin may respond with counter-sanctions. Trump orders a troop pull-out (would be about a quarter of the US troops in Germany).

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

The labyrinth known as Libya - TTG

When we last visited Libya, we saw the demise of Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi at the hands of various Libyan rebel forces. Those videos are now tagged with a graphic content warning on YouTube. His gruesome death with a knife up his arse, a bullet in his head and his carcass on display in a Misrata grocer’s freezer should have been a warning of what was to come. Even Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, on the day of his capture issued a strong warning to his captors about Libya’s new radical leaders and the risk of internal divisions. Of course he was only talking about particular Islamist leaders among the rebels. Even he didn’t foresee the danger of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).  Those jihadists had their moment, but neither of the current warring factions in Libya have any use for them. At least there’s that.

Ah yes. How could I forget Benghazi. We all remember the killing of Ambassador Stevens in Benghazi on 11 September 2012 and the ensuing four years of Congressional investigations. But that’s another story.  

Some time after the killing of Ambassador Stevens, the USG started developing plans to begin rebuilding a new Libyan Army starting in 2015. It definitely would have been a much tougher mission than rebuilding the Lebanese Army in 1983. It would have taken an entire SF Group and various supporting elements fully deployed for several years. Given our existing deployments at the time, I doubt this mission ever got past the initial planning stage… if that far. If we were at all serious about this endeavor, we should have started planning before the first American bomb fell on Qadaffi’s forces.

 

Transcripts of Flynn - Kislyak telephone calls are declassified and released

By Robert Willmann

Transcripts of phone conversations between Gen. Michael Flynn (ret.) and Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak were declassified and released today by the new Director of National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe--

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/michaelflynn_phone_calls_kislyak.pdf

 

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 28 MAY 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Latest numbers: total cases 379K; total deaths 4142; tests per 1 million 66K. Russia has done 9.7 million tests (second after USA); among countries with populations over 10M it's fourth in tests per million and of those over 100M first. The vaccines tests are reported to be going well. Peskov is out of hospital. Karlin thinks that it's out of control in Dagestan. Doctorow argues that Russia has learned from China the value of segregating COVID sufferers in special hospitals leaving the others free for other problems. Restrictions continue to be lifted.

VICTORY DAY. Postponed because of COVID-19, the Moscow parade is scheduled for 24 June, the anniversary of the 1945 parade. The Immortal Regiment marches a month later.

OIL WARS. Russian gas shipments are down and US LNG isn't looking good. US oil production is falling and a shale oil company has gone bust. Saudi Arabia has cut its production. Oil futures are below $40. The guessimates are that US shale needs about $60, Saudi Arabia about $80 while Russia is OK at $45 and can get by on $25 for some time. So Moscow's still smiling, even if a little grimly.

PAUL WHELAN. A man of somewhat mysterious background, was arrested in Russia a year and a half ago, charged with spying and has been in jail since. Finally he's been tried in a closed session; the prosecution wants him put away for 18 years, he insists he's innocent. What I find interesting – and very singular – is that the several countries of which he is a citizen aren't making much of a fuss. Which they usually do, even when they're economical with the truth; vide spy rock and Bellona.

OPEN SKIES. In 1955 President Eisenhower suggested the idea; Moscow rejected it because it was an "espionage plot". It finally happened in 2002 and 35 countries signed on to it. Given that 26 of the 35 are NATO members it could hardly be said to advantage Russia. Nevertheless Washington is dropping out: Russia of course is at fault: it's using it to "collect information". (To someone who's been in the business since the Soviet days, this reversal of positions is a continual and amusing fascination.)

MORE RUSSIANS. Moscow has granted citizenship to nearly 216 thousand people in the first quarter of 2020; about two thirds of them from Ukraine. It's a little known fact that Russia gets a lot of migrants: in 2019 it was fourth-largest (but does KSA really qualify?); second ten years earlier.

INFRASTRUCTURE. Sapsan trip. Always fascinated how clean and shiny everything is nowadays.

LAWSUITS. He said it was a joke, Putin disagreed and fired him. Now the former head of Chuvashia, Mikhail Ignatiev, says he's going to court. Good luck with that. The lawyer representing Sturgess and Rowley wants the Skripals to be brought to court to testify. Good luck with that.

FOOD. Putin recently said that Russia was now self-sufficient in "basic food products". I take that to mean that, while there may not be as many bananas as you might want, Russia produces enough calories in the right balance. I have no difficult believing him: it's been coming. A stunning achievement – when I lived there about half the food was imported and farming was in a desperate state. The Russian counter-sanctions on food were a brilliant move. Thought they were. (Got RI wrong, though.)

FAUGH! The coolest plane ever is to be replaced by another blah flying wing.

FAKE NEWS. Something or other nefarious Russian thingee alleged in Czechia. Rubbish I say and I don't bother to pay attention. Korybko does and here's his take. Something or other in Germany. I've given up taking these accusations even partly seriously after Skripal, Russiagate, Litvinenko, MH-17 and all the rest. The burden of proof is on the West doubly so because it's lied so often.

NEW NWO. A German poll on the post-COVID world gives a very interesting result: 37% consider close relations with the US more important than close relations with China; 36% see it the other way round. Almost exactly balanced and after all the anti-China propaganda too. The wheels are coming off the wagon.

THE AMERICAN DREAM. Is just fine. And as confident as can be.

NOT ON YOUR "NEWS" OUTLET. A UN study finds that 81% of civilians killed in east Ukraine were killed by Kiev forces shelling them. Peculiar "Russian invasion" isn't it?

BIDEN-UKRAINE. Remember this photo of Biden at the head of the table? the guy sixth on his left is the so-called President of Ukraine. A recording of Biden giving Poroshenko his marching orders has appeared. Not as if we didn't already know this from Biden's own lips. A Ukrainian judge has ordered he be listed as alleged perpetrator of crime in Prosecutor’s firing. No mention of Hunter B though. So far.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 14 MAY 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Today's numbers: total cases: 250K; total deaths: 2305; tests per 1 million: 42K.Russia has done six million tests (second after USA); among countries with populations over 10M it's fifth in tests per million and of those over 100M first; one could therefore expect it to find new cases – most of which have little effect. Mishustin is back at work, Putin's spokesman is not. Putin, in a virtual meeting, announced the end ofthe "paid holiday period" and a gradual lifting of lock-down in a report on the state of play. There's a report that Russia is undercounting: actually it's taking a hard approach while some other countries take a soft approach (the from vs with question.) Which of course means that the numbers at worldometers.info are so varied in methodology as to be practically worthless...

OIL WARS. Prices creeping up to about $27. This piece argues that Riyadh has made a really big mistake and enumerates the ways it has. The US industry is in trouble.

RUSSIA INC. The IMF says, in PPP terms, Russia's economy passed Germany to become number five.

BROWDER. His story takes another hit – as it always does when someone takes a real look at it. The German press council rejected his complaint against Der Spiegel saying his narrative lacked proof.

NORDSTREAM. After a long trip from Nakhodka in which it kept pretending to change its destination, the pipe-laying ship Akademik Cherskiy is now ready to complete Nord Stream 2. In an amazing coincidence, the Russians hack Merkel's cell phone. Get in line Russia!. (Bernhard catches the NYT in another sloppy anti-Russia assertion.)

RUSSIAN YOUTH. It's a widespread delusion, strengthened by the narrow circle Western reporters talk to in Russia, that "the government's anti-Western agenda and reports of widespread corruption are turning young Russians against the leader."Levada has done a survey of Russian youth and that's pretty hard to find; in general they're not far off their parents: a bit more liberal but also a bit more nationalist. Perhaps the most interesting result was that a solid majority thought Russia was not European. Robinson discusses. He wonders why so few show much support for "'classical' civil and political liberties". My guess is that 20 years of observation of Western practice of these noble ideals has soured them.

PROVOCATIVE. US and British warships enter the Barents Sea, promoting regional security and stability, while building trust. I think a Russian-Chinese naval trip to the Beaufort Sea would get us all some stability and trust, don't you?

WESTERN VALUES™. Given that NATO likes to blather on about how it "promotes democratic values", it's amusing to see that Freedom House says that Hungary, Poland, Hungary, Montenegro and Turkey don't make the cut as "consolidated democracies".

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Transcripts from House hearings have been published. Here they are. Nothing. It was all lies. Remember Crowdstrike and its "proof" the Russians hacked it? When they're under oath, nothing. Remember all those people on TV saying there was strong evidence of collusion? Under oath, they said there wasn't any. Schiff knew this and said it anyway. Justice Department drops case against Flynn – entrapment.More to come. But that doesn't mean that the shills have given up: Russia will steal the next election; or will China? But does Beijing want Trump or out? (Wouldn't it be fun if Moscow and Beijing disagreed on whom to put into the White House?)

DOES THE NYT PLAGIARISE RUSSIAN REPORTERS? You decide.

WHY IS THE US IN SYRIA? Washington longer bothers to prettify – the boot is straight to the face. ISIS? Forget ISIS says Jeffrey: "My job is to make it a quagmire for the Russians". An amazing confession, in the same class as "We lied, we cheated, we stole".

DOUMA. More leaked documents expose OPCW corruption – the whistle-blower was not, as we we told, some marginal guy, but one of the leaders of the inspection team. The official line requires us to believe that this smashed through a steel reinforced concrete ceiling and landed peacefully on a bed.

UKRAINE. A police official wants to know the names, addresses and phones of all the Jews in Kolomyya, a city in western Ukraine; "most of its Jews were murdered by February 1943 at the Szepariwice forest outside the city and the Bełżec death camp." "Is Ukraine a Hub for International White Supremacist Fighters?" wonders a piece published by Harvard. Remember when it was Putin disinformation about nazis in Ukraine?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 30 APRIL 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA AND COVID. Today's numbers: total cases: 106K; total deaths: 1073; tests per 1 million: 24K. Why so few deaths per cases? One theory is that Russia has done more tests than most large countries so the denominator is larger; another is the the idea that the BCG vaccine has some effect; Russophobes (of course) say that Russia is lying (as if it could cover up lots of deaths given today's social media). Moscow, where half the cases are, is now, after a very unsteady start, tracking people electronically. Putin has extended the lockdown (with full pay) until 11 May. The PM has it.

POST COVID. Russians turn out to have quite a bit saved: 16% say they have enough for a year or more; 25% for 3-6 months; 29% for 1-2 months; 30% report none. The quoted piece sees this as a disaster but, when you add in the support measures the state has provided during the shutdown, low health, education and housing costs, Russians will come out of this better off than many other countries. (Thanks to Jon Hellevig).

RUSSIA'S DOOMED AGAIN. COVID this time. And oil.

OIL WARS. The bottom has dropped out of the business. Full tankers lined up; negative futures prices; current price about $17. Lots more Saudi oil on its way to the USA. The agreement to cut production doesn't seem to have had any effect. Did MBS launch it in a fit of pique? As China's economy powers up again, it will need oil but apparently it's buying it mostly from Russia.

BLAME. The egregious failure of the USA and its minions is going to lead to a lot of accusations: we already see Chinadunnit in full cry in the two supposedly best prepared countries. China, Russia and Iran are all busy spreading disinformation says Pompeo and "disparaging" US efforts. If the story that Fauci gave money to the Wuhan lab to research bat coronaviruses is true, there will be an embarrassing back blast.

THE GREAT PUTIN DISAPPEARANCE II. "Putin Has Vanished, but Rumors Are Popping Up Everywhere" says the NYT. Memory lane trip time. For a modest retainer I will provide the West's intelligence agencies and media access to the top-secret, well-hidden and known-to-only-a-few-of-the-initiated information on his activities. (BTW, we need a new word in English to cover the concept of "stupid".)

HISTORY. A large church to "unite all Orthodox Christians serving in the Armed Forces" is nearly finished outside Moscow. (I do wish they'd stop translating "храм" as "cathedral"). RFE sneers; Moscow Times melts down. Four halls will commemorate three warrior saints and a famous icon from the 1812 war. As I've said before, unlike some countries that prefer to airbrush their history or turn it upside down (as did the USSR, of course) modern Russia attempts to face it all: Stalin plus the Smolensk Icon; it all happened, why pretend that half of it didn't?

MILITARY STUFF. It was revealed that the T-14 Armata MBT had been tested in Syria. Of course they never tell us if it just drove around in the dust and heat or actually shot at things. Syria is a big test-bed for Russian weapons. Paratroopers made a 10,000 metre jump in the Arctic. (Video) The Soviets practically pioneered large-scale parachute operations and today the Russian Airborne are still the only one that routinely drops AFVs and is not, therefore, merely light infantry when it hits the ground.

RUBBISH. The so-called Gerasimov Doctrine is back; sort of. Rubbish and projection I say.

DEATH OF IRONY. "Well, what we have seen is that Russia maintains military presence close to NATO borders and NATO countries, including in the Black Sea."

ELBE. A Putin-Trump joint statement, which is something I guess as we move into the Russians-are- falsifying-history, we-really-won-it and the wrong-side-won season.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Looks like Flynn was set up by the FBI.

GOOD QUESTION. Why does the US have so many biolabs close to Russia? Georgia. Ukraine. Armenia. It's not as if the safety record for the ones in the US is so good.

UKRAINE. For your amusement: "The Peril of Polling in Crimea: Is It Possible to Measure Public Opinion in an Occupied Territory?" Unsurprisingly Ukraine's Foreign Minister concludes it isn't. Meanwhile Saakashvili's back. And land sales are on.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

 

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 16 APRIL 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

COVID AND RUSSIA. Overall totals to today are 28K infected, 232 dead. This raises the question of why the death rate in Russia appears to be lower. One theory is that the widespread Soviet-era tuberculosis vaccinations (BCG vaccine) may have had an effect – just how or why is unclear, but there seems to be a statistical relationship. A test of its effectiveness is beginning in Australia. Over half the cases are in Moscow but every region except one reports cases: most of Sunday's infections in Shanghai came from a flight from Russia the day before. A pass system was introduced in Moscow yesterday but not very successfully (and many standing in line waiting to be checked). The new hospital in Moscow Region is up and running. A vaccine prototype is undergoing human testing (including by the developer). The Victory Parade is postponed. Meanwhile Russian military specialists are working away in Italy. (This, by the way, is why NBCW units were sent – not to spy, or for "gaining access to Italy’s health and military system, which is part of a larger NATO structure", or to create "A hybrid lie. Or a hybrid truth" or be useless or whatever else NATO flacks imagine).

OIL WARS. After a lot of phonecalls – especially between Putin, Trump and Riyadh, OPEC plus Russia plus USA have agreed to a production cut. How long will the agreement last? Your guess – it probably depends on whether the USA can deliver or will deliver: Scott Ritter thinks it can't. On the other hand, Washington has had a chance to learn its lesson – shale oil needs price about twice what it is today back down to about $20/bbl; one producer has already gone bust. COVID has so greatly reduced demand that the cuts may have little effect anyway.

TANKS. The latest variant of the T-90 – new turret, bigger gun, new defensive equipment – is being delivered to the Tamen MR Division of the First Guards Tank Army.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. US Attorney General Barr just said the Russia collusion probe was a travesty, had no basis and was intended to sabotage Trump. All true of course. May we take this as a sign that at last (at last!) Durham is ready to go with indictments? Or will it prove to be another false alarm? There's certainly a lot to reveal: A recent investigation showed that every FISA application (warrant to spy on US citizens) examined had egregious deficiencies. It's not just Trump.

MEANINGLESSNESS. Remember the Steele dossier? Now it's being spun as Russian disinformation. So we're now supposed to believe that Putin smeared Trump because he really wanted Clinton to win? Gosh, that Putin guy is so clever that it's impossible to figure out what he's doing!

COVID BLAME I. Back in the day I read a certain amount of Soviet propaganda about the wicked West. And, while it was quite often over the top, pretty monotonous and probably – judging from what ex-Soviets have told me – not all that effective in the long run, it usually had, buried deep inside, a tiny kernel of reality. Western anti-Russia propaganda, on the other hand, is nothing but free-association nonsense. Take the NYT's latest: the headline alone tells you it's crap: "Putin’s Long War Against American Science: A decade of health disinformation promoted by President Vladimir Putin of Russia has sown wide confusion, hurt major institutions and encouraged the spread of deadly illnesses." Another difference was that Soviet propaganda at least ran on the assumption that the Soviet system was preferable: this, on the other hand, is a pitiful attempt to blame the US COVID failure on somebody else. Nonetheless, this is not rock-bottom for the NYT's anti-Russian fantasies: that target was hit a couple of years ago with "Trump and Putin: A Love Story". (But, the goalposts keep moving: if you accuse a Dem of Trumpish grabbing, you're probably a Putinbot.) I guess it will only get more: "The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born; now is the time of monsters."

COVID BLAME II. Maybe it's not Putin or Xi who's to blame: maybe it's your own propaganda outlet: "VOA too often speaks for America's adversaries—not its citizens... VOA has instead amplified Beijing's propaganda."

PROBABLY MEANINGLESS COVID FACTOID. 75% of reported cases are in NATO countries.

DISAPPEARING UP YOUR OWN FUNDAMENT. "Why do we find ourselves in a situation where an EU-funded body set up to fight disinformation ends up producing it? There are two main reasons... " Sure, they're good enough reasons but I think the real reason is that they are paid well to make this stuff up: these are not honest mistakes. Anyway, read the source yourself and ask whether you are convinced.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 2 APRIL 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

COVID AND RUSSIA. As of today there are about 3600 cases and 30 deaths, most in Moscow City. Why so much lower than other places? Some reasons: Moscow ordered travel and flight closures earlier than Western countries; it does not appear to have run down its stockpiles of PPE (as the USA and, apparently, most Western countries did); the war-time/emergency preparedness of a country that knows the cost of not being prepared and the fact that anti-Russia sanctions have made the country very self-sufficient. (As even the NYT admits. A few weeks ago, though, in NYT-land, Russia's economy was faltering. Hard to keep up with the Party Line it is.) That having been said, Moscow is pretty much locked down and other cities are following suit. Putin laid out the government's program last week. In essence: a lot of help for the little guy and more taxes on rich people who keep their money outside Russia. In today's address to the nation, he extended the paid holiday to 30 April. The Constitutional referendum is postponed. Entry has been banned to foreigners, an isolation hospital is being built for Moscow and the military are building more around the country. Russia has enough PPE and ventilators that it can spare them for other countries. Several potential vaccines are being tested. So, perhaps after thinking it had escaped it, Russia is bracing but it seems to be much better prepared than the Western average. Helmer discusses the state of play.

SOFT POWER. The brutal truth is that the "leader of the free world" took 500,000 test kits out of Italy, tried to bribe a German pharmaceutical company to move to the USA and advertises easy immigration for doctors. NATO and the EU have done little to help their worse affected neighbours. Meanwhile Russia, China and Cuba – all bad boys to the "Rules-Based International Order" – are providing assistance. (And to the USA itself! PR? of course it is, but it's also a teaching moment which the WaPo doesn't get.) The propagandists leap to their keyboards: "Beware of Bad Samaritans" is a classic. It includes the lie that 80% of the stuff Moscow sent Italy was useless (Bryan MacDonald takes the effort to trace the lie back to the the fake newsmakers at the Atlantic Council/"Integrity" Initiative) and manages the logical leap of accusing China and Russia both of giving useless stuff and giving too little of it. Liars have no imagination: all they can do is project their own behaviour.

NEW NWO. Post COVID, things are going to be a lot different. I offer Stephen Walt's "The Death of American Competence" for your reflection. Pompeo's boast only six weeks ago that "The West is winning" looks hollow. This 2019 rating of countries best prepared to deal with a pandemic hasn't worn well (USA and UK first, Russia and China in the middle). 2020 – the year the West lost its mojo.

OIL WAR. Oil is about US$25 a barrel. The story in brief: Russia refused a production slowdown, Saudi Arabia (but why?) started pumping like mad, COVID reduced demand and here we are. Have Putin & Co decided that now is the time to bring down the USA? Or at least its fracking business? Or is it a power play to teach Washington a lesson so it will stop interfering with Russia's market? Anyway Russia is in a position to outlast either Saudi Arabia or the US frackery.

TRIALS. One of Mueller's "triumphs" was indicting a St Petersburg company for interference on behalf of the Russian government. (Weepy Maddow flashback). A safe stunt because the Russians wouln't show up in court. But they did. The prosecution has dropped the case. Why? Bluster, bluster, but the short answer is that there was no evidence. Let Bernhard, who got the story right from the beginning, take you through it. Oh, and the owner of the company is going to sue. In a similar situation, the judge in the MH-17 trial has demanded the prosecution 1) say whether it did receive the claimed US evidence 2) show it to the judge. Leaks tell us that the JIT has never seen it; not surprising because there isn't any (that's an easy deduction: if the US really did "observe it" as Kerry claimed, we would have seen it now.) Sometimes Western courts work the way they're supposed to.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. No COVID holiday here: Putin’s virus! Sow discord! Disinformation! Russian sources pushed conspiracy! Disinformation! Hacking of our minds! And not just the USA: Disinformation! Sow panic in West! Weaken Western society! Online disinformation assault! Any deviation from Big Brother's latest can only be Russian disinformation.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Europe sends COVID aid to Iran, Washington adds to the sanctions.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. WaPo admits Crimeans happy to be in Russia. WaPo!!?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 19 MARCH 2020 (by Patrick Armstrong)

(NOTE: Away in Feb, felled by severe cold this moth. Not.not CV)

PUTIN 4EVER. (Russian Constitution text.) In January Putin suggested some amendments to the Constitution to be discussed and put to national vote in a referendum. Which is, I suppose, close enough to the amending procedure set out in Chapter 9. A commission was quickly set up and amendment suggestions came in. The final ones reflected the rather traditionalist flavour of Russia – marriage is between a man and a woman, a reference to God, indissolubility of Russian territory and some social guarantees. (Wikipedia list.)

Two proposals reflect what Russia has learned in the three decades since the first version. Russian legislation will now take primacy over international law and office holders cannot have dual citizenship or foreign residency permits. This is understandable: the original text had been written at a time when Russians were much more hopeful about the outside world than they are now: grim experience has taught them that "international institutions" are another stick to beat them with. (And, given the chaos and destruction that the self-proclaimed "Rules-Based International Order" has produced, even laudable.)

Among the changes suggested by Putin and approved was the removal from Article 81.3 of "for more than two terms running"; in short two terms only for a president. So what we were looking at was a slightly less president-dominated system with a two-term president, the end of naïve expectations about the "Rules-Based International Order" and some declarations to make conservatives happy.

(I do not now remember why the term limit was in the Constitution – my vague memory is that Western advisors insisted on it so as to reduce dictatorship possibilities. There were, I remember, much fear of the Communists coming back in those days. But, a term limit is not normal world practice and most countries don't worry about it – MacKenzie King was PM of Canada for more than 21 years.)

So far so good and all reasonable enough and sensible.

Enter Valentina Tereshkova. Since we're changing the Constitution, said she, then we should start the presidential term counting clock all over again. In other words, when Putin finishes this term in 2024, he can run twice more. Did she think this up on her own or was she put up to it? No one seems to know. Putin addressed the Duma, said it was OK with him if the Constitutional Court approved. Which it did. At this point it is reasonable to observe that it is hardly "constitutional" if you rule that any president can restart the clock by making a few twiddles to the Constitution, is it?

The full package has not yet been approved by a referendum on 22 April but all indications are that it will be: a recent poll showed that a solid majority was quite happy to have Putin stay in office. Meretriciously the voters will be asked to approve the whole package or nothing.

So, what to say about all this? There are, as usual, several theories. First are those who have said from the beginning that Putin would contrive a way to stay on forever. Well, there isn't much of a retort to them except to to wonder why he didn't just amend Article 81.3, is there? Another theory holds that Putin feels he has to stay on because only he can manage things in the dangerous times of the decline of the Imperium Americanum. In his speech to the Duma he referred to Roosevelt's breaking the two-term custom, adding: "When a country is going through such upheavals and such difficulties (in our case we have not yet overcome all the problems since the USSR, this is also clear), stability may be more important and must be given priority." Well, that decline is undeniably dangerous and there will be many crisis points; but it will take several dangerous decades and Putin certainly won't be here when the power earthquake is finally over. And there's always some crisis, somewhere. Another idea is that what he has really done is leave the possibility of running again thereby avoiding a lame duck period before he does go in 2024. Maybe: Putin is coy in this interview.

But, altogether, the manoeuvre leaves a bad taste in the mouth: manipulative, shabby, slipshod, legal only in the most pedantic sense, arbitrary, second-rate and poorly thought out. Very disappointing to someone who thought Putin did not want to be the Turkmenbashi of Russia.

If the system that he and his team spent 20 years building doesn't work without him, then it doesn't work.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

 

HTS has killed the "cease fire."

"Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has officially rejected the recent Russian-Turkish agreement on Greater Idlib, vowing to keep on fighting.
In an official statement, the terrorist group claimed that the agreement would allow the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces to resume military operation in the region. The group also noted that most of the agreement’s terms are “not implementable.”
“This agreement is tinged with ambiguity and loose, floating phrases that allow the Russian occupier to use it for aggression again, and there are also terms that cannot be implemented at all, in face, they are considered an insult and humiliation of the blood of the martyrs and the sacrifices of ten continuous years,” HTS’ statement, which was released on March 7, reads.
The terrorist group also thanked the Turkish government for directly engaging in the recent battle against the SAA and its allies in Greater Idlib
HTS concluded its statement by vowing to fight on against the SAA and its allies, promising that there will be “no peace or security” until the Syrian government is overthrown."  SF

--------------

As I expected. this cease fire is merely a pause in the Idlib Province struggle.  HTS (al-Qa'ida) rejects the cease fire.  Therefore there is no cease fire.  The SAA and allies will use he pause to re-fit and rest units bloodied in the recent fighting and then a pretext will allow R+6 to resume operations intended to clear Idlib of the jihadis and Turks.  How long will the pause last.  It is impossible to say.  The frustration and rage of the war party in Washington and London must be impressive.

All the conspiracy minded drivel now being sent to SST is laughable. The situation is really quite simple.  Erdogan can hardly wait to fulfill his "destiny" as Sultan Caliph and mahdi of the Sunni world and his fantasy of a Europe included in the 'umma.  HTS is uninterested in his fantasy.  They have their own fantasy to fulfill.  pl 

https://southfront.org/surprise-al-qaedas-hts-rejects-russian-turkish-agreement-on-greater-idlib-vows-to-fight-on/

https://southfront.org/damascus-aleppo-highway-open-again-for-traffic-photos/

https://southfront.org/russian-forces-seized-toxic-chemicals-from-turkish-backed-militants-near-syrias-saraqib-report/

«Erdogan leads a panislamist and neo-ottoman project that must be fought urgently» Le Figaro

(Mezri Haddad)

 

We have this translation from the French text courtesy of Phillipe Boileau who lives at Montreal.  pl

-------------------------------

FIGAROVOX/TRIBUNE – The philosopher Mezri Haddad analyses Turkish president Erdogan’s foreign policy. Erdogan aims, in Haddad's  view, to transform Turkey into an anti-Western power on the basis of the conflict of civilisations model of Samuel Huntington.

This essay was published the 3rd of March 2020 at 10:37, and updated the 4th of march 2020 at 01:53 in Le Figaro.

Mezri Haddad is a philosopher and president of the ‘Centre international de géopolitique et de prospective analytique CIGPA’ (International center of geopolitics and analytical prospective)

________________________________________

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been scheming against European countries for a long time. For the second time since 2015, he has carried out his blackmail of migratory flooding by opening his land and sea borders with Greece to thousands of Syrian, Afghan, Iraqi, Pakistani, Somali refugees. Among them, there are certainly terrorist infiltrators who have shaved their beards or shed their burkas. This migration is his "nuclear" deterrent, a human pipeline intended to subject the European Union to pan-Islamism and expansionist oukases [Arbitrary decision, imperative order].

The message of the Istanbul satrap [bureaucrat in a negative sense] is perfectly clear: "To safeguard the borders of Europe, either the Europeans pay me (Erdogan) even more money by supporting me militarily in my war against Damascus alongside my Islamic-terrorist mercenaries, or I pour on her thousands of Syrian hostages who dream of the European Eldorado." For, as far as Syrians are concerned, they are indeed hostages that the Turkish regime has long prevented from returning to their towns and villages pacified and liberated by the Syrian army from the barbarity of Daesh, Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra...

Idlib province is one of the last terrorist strongholds that the Erdogan regime has supported since the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring. The Arab spring’s impacts are now being measured in the aggregation of political, geopolitical, humanitarian, socio-economic and security aspects not only in Syria but also in Libya, Yemen and Tunisia. Tunisia being the most ‘successful’ in its spring by entrusting the reality of power to the servants of Erdogan that are the Muslim Brotherhood! The liberation of Idlib is at the root of this new and very serious migration crisis. Idlib province is the most advanced post of irregular Turkish troops (jihadists) in Syrian territory. In his defense of these terrorists, the Turkish autocrat invoked security and even "humanitarian" reasons, hundreds of inhabitants of these provinces who had fallen under the yoke of theocratic totalitarianism who could flee the war and take refuge in Turkey, like the 4 million Syrians already exiled to the country. Erdogan's deception is useless because it is himself who prevents Syrian refugees from returning to their villages, and who keeps them as a bargaining chip and leverage over Europe. Before carrying out his threats, Erdogan justified his plan to occupy Syrian territories by making Europeans believe that, rather than being invaded by thousands of Syrian refugees, it would be better for them to entrust Turkey’s neo-Ottoman mission to confine these refugees to Idlib and Aleppo.
But European leaders are no longer fooled. Even if it took them a long time to understand it, they now know that the Turkish regime has forged close links with the major terrorist organizations that were rampant in Iraq and Syria and whose ramifications go as far as Europe. At his joint conference in London with Donald Trump on December 3, 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron had the courage to declare: "When I look at Turkey, it now fights those (Kurds) who fought with us, alongside us against the Islamic state. Sometimes the Turks work with IS intermediaries. It's a problem and it's a strategic problem... The common enemy today are terrorist groups and I am sorry that we do not have the same definition of terrorism."

Some thoughts on Idlib Dawn - TTG

The seesaw events of the last few days can be examined from the political dancing and posturing of the major players and from the combatants’ maneuvers on the battlefield. Obviously there is a lot of interplay between the two, but I think it is the soldiers who are driving this train rather than the politicians. I'm also way more comfortable at the grazing fire level than wallowing among the political class.

The SAA still is composed of a few well trained, well led and well equipped combined arms units capable of sustained heavy combat. They are constantly moved to where they are needed most. Most of the SAA positions are manned by lightly armed National Defense Forces (NDF) and local militias. These forces essentially man a picket line against the jihadis. They can defend against light probes, but cannot withstand a major jihadi assault especially when those jihadis are supported by Turkish artillery and armor. That is what happened at Saraqib when the 25th Division and Liwa al Quds were withdrawn to attack the al Zawhiya Mountains and the M4 from the south. It happened again when the 25th and Liwa Al Quds pulled out of that offensive to deal with Saraqib for the second time. Fortunately, the NDF and militias were able to withdraw rather than being overrun and destroyed.

In the face of the SAA success in Operation Idlib Dawn, Erdogan slowly ratcheted up the use of the Turkish Army to bolster his jihadi allies on the battlefield. The SAA adjusted. However, bombing of the convoy resulting in the death of thirty plus Turkish soldiers drove Erdogan to find a way to assuage his embarrassment. I think his retaliation with MLRS, artillery and drone strikes surprised the SAA and the Russians as well. Perhaps the Russians first thought the Turkish strikes were a face saving measure and would stop after the initial strikes. Erdogan thought this Russian pause was a sign of weakness and did not stop his attacks. Another blunder. The R+6 adjusted once again. SAA air defenses were moved to the battlefield. Russian air strikes increased. It appears Russian EW units are now in action against Turkish drones. The SAA is still not directly targeting the Turks, but if the Turks are hanging abound the jihadis, the SAA does not hesitate to strike. With all the Turkish equipment and uniforms supplied to the jihadis, it getting difficult to tell them apart. Russia has told Turkey they could not guarantee the safety of Turkish aircraft over Syria. I believe the Iranians have also warned Turkey that all those surrounded Turkish observation posts were under direct observation and could easily be under direct fire. Erdogan’s bluff has been called.

The jihadis are suffering from a lack of sufficient assault troops in spite of Turkish largesse. After retaking Saraqib with several days of relentless assaults and heavy casualties, they pulled many of their fighters off the battlefield to address the threat to the M4 to their west. They could not hold Saraqib and attack south of the M4 at the same time. Their chance to retake Saraqib is now gone. The Russians have moved their MPs into Saraqib as a signal to Erdogan that it is forever part of Syria.

The jihadi counteroffensive in southern Idlib was blunted in a unique way. The SAA in Kafr Nabl let the word that they have withdrawn from Kafr Nabl be spread on social media. In reality, the SAA remained in hidden positions in the town hoping to lure the jihadis into an ambush. It worked. The jihadis advanced and were annihilated. The SAA immediately counterattacked and retook two additional towns. I don’t know what SAA unit this was. It could very well have been an NDF outfit. They are learning. The jihadis are whining about Spetsnaz operating in the area. Maybe they are, maybe they’re not. I actually hope there are Russian advisors working with those second tier NDF units, advising and calling in air strikes. This ambush is something I would have advised them to do. I love the ambush.

The Russians are rapidly replacing the SAA’s battlefield losses in equipment and are not withholding air support to the SAA. Neither Moscow nor Damascus are impressed by Erdogan’s latest histrionics. Trump and the DoD has said no dice to Erdogan’s request for help. It does appear that Pompeo is still trying to drum up some kind of support for “our staunch NATO ally.”

I predict the R+6 will secure both the M4 and M5 in the coming weeks, but will leave Idlib city for another day. They have to let the Turkish frog boil a little longer before he will accept the fact that Idlib is a Syrian city without throwing another hissy fit. He’ll also have to figure out what he’s going to do with all those jihadi friends of his. Libya isn’t going his way, either. 

TTG 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-retakes-the-large-city-of-saraqib-after-fierce-battle/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-deploys-military-to-saraqib-in-clear-message-to-turkey/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-turns-the-table-in-southern-idlib-retakes-ground-in-jabal-al-zawiya/

Would counter-battery attacks in Syria or Turkey trigger NATO Article Five? -revision 1

 

"This map provides a general look at the recent gains by Turkish-led forces in southern Idlib. The Turkish Army and its al-Qaeda-linked allies have retaken several villages from the Syrian army and beiseged the town of Kafr Nabul, which the Syrians had recently liberated from al-Qaeda."  SF

https://southfront.org/map-update-advances-of-turkish-led-forces-in-southern-idlib/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Turkish_Land_Forces

----------------

IMO the gains made by the jihadis and the Turkish Army in Idlib Province are being made because of the masses of artillery weapons and multiple launcher rocket systems (MLRS) that the Turks were equipped with when they were a major factor in NATO plans to halt a possible Soviet attack in the Balkans and from the Caucasus.

A lot of these weapons are old but they still work well and have ranges that can influence the fighting in Syria from positions WITHIN Hatay Province, Turkey (what the Russians now call "the stolen province").   We are talking about 203 MM howitzers and 175 mm long rifles among other weapons.  I can tell you from personal experience that these are devastating weapons.

The appropriate military response to fires from such artillery and MLRS is COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE.  IOW the point of origin of the fires is determined virtually instantaneously by counter-battery radar or satellite observation (Russian) and fires are placed on the firing positions before the guns or MLRS can be moved.  This procedure would kill a lot of Turks and destroy a lot of their equipment.  IMO it would stop the present Turkish counter-offensive.  Could Fatih Sultan Tayyip politically survive such an experience?  Only Allah knows.

The NATO Treaty's Article Five provides for mutual defense against attacks from outside the alliance.  Would counter-battery fire against the Turks, if they are  firing into Syria, trigger Article Five?  I doubt that the Europeans would want to go to war against Russia to protect the sultan's ambitions.  Counter-battery fir against Turkish artillery operating INSIDE Syria would no be a political problem involving NATO.

The Turks must have moved some guns forward into Syria to support the Turco/jihadi force around Saraqib.  Some other group of heavy weapons  must be supporting the Turco/jihadi force near the northern el-Ghaab Plain.  Are they in Syria?  Maybe, but wherever they are, IMO they can be struck without fear of Article Five.

Would the Syrians then be attacked by US forces with or without Article Five?  Maybe they would be.  That would depend on the level of Pompeo's influence with the president.  pl 

Mr President! Pompeo wants a US War in Syria!

“This was and remains a bad idea,” said one of the people familiar with the discussions.  Turkey and the U.S. have a history when it comes to the Patriot. Over Washington's objections, Ankara last year received an advanced Russian S-400 missile-defense system that the U.S. considers a threat to the F-35 fighter jet and NATO air defenses. The U.S. had offered the Patriot as an alternative, but Turkey has committed to the Russian system. As a result, Washington kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program, for which it was both a customer and manufacturing partner.  A DoD spokesperson declined to comment. A spokesperson for Jeffrey referred POLITICO to a statement from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who on Friday condemned the attack and called on the Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian backers to cease their assault on Idlib. He noted that the U.S. is “reviewing options to assist Turkey against this aggression.”""  politico

--------------

Idlib Governorate is Syrian territory.  The Syrian government is a member state of the UN.  The Russians are assisting the Syrian government at the request of that government.   "Fatih" Sultan Erdogan has introduced thousands of Turkish Army troops into northern Syria in what amounts to a neo-Ottoman land grab.

He has a major problem in that so far, neither the Turkish Army (TSK) nor their Sunni jihadi allies are fighting very well.  They have managed to re-capture the town of Saraqib on the four lane highway between Damascus and Aleppo, but for how long?  The SAA and their militia allies are massing to re-take the town.

To the west nearly all of Idlib Governorate south of the M-4 east-west highway is within artillery fire of the advancing SAA and at the northern end of the al-Ghaab Plain the spearheads are apparently within 6 miles of the M-4.  Assuming that the M-4 is the Turkish Main Supply Route (MSR) out of Hatay Province to the west, an SAA interdiction of that major road will imperil the Turkish led force around  Saraqib.  The Turks will then either withdraw from Saraqib or attack any SAA blockage of  the M-4 or both. In classic militaryspeak, the Turks would be said to have been "turned out" of their position at Saraqib by the SAA move onto the M-4 to the west.  The resulting engagement would be a desperate fight.  In the midst of this situation the Russian Aerospace expeditionary force would be heavily engaged.  

Mike Pompeo, Jeffrey, his henchman, and all the neocons in and out of the Borg (foreign policy establishment) want the US to become directly involved in this battle by providing Turkish forces in Syria air defense from US manned Patriot missile batteries.  The Turks could not man the systems themselves if we provided them.  They also want the US to declare a "no-fly zone" over Idlib Governorate.  Such a zone would be a declaration that the US and little friends would shoot down any military aircraft flying over this piece of Syrian territory without US permission.  This would be an act of war by the United States and would cause a de facto state of war to exist between the US and Russia.

The US Department of Defense thinks that such engagement on our part is a stupid neocon conception that has it roots in Israeli desire to destroy the Syrian Government, preferring to have a zone of warring factions where Syria once was, a Hobbesian scene of desolation and a war of all against all,  The Israeli idea is as stupid as that of the neocons.

President Trump, the Commander in Chief of the US armed forces, holds the sole power to decide.  Let us hope that he decides well.  pl 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/turkey-patriot-missiles-pentagon-118256

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turning_movement

Idlib Dawn Update "Send lawyers, guns and money" - TTG

Everybody's restless and they've got no place to go

Someone's always trying to tell them
Something they already know
So their anger and resentment flow

But don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long
Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio

You know, the Sheriff's got his problems too
He will surely take them out on you
In walked the village idiot and his face was all aglow
He's been up all night listening to Mohammed's Radio

Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long
Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio

Everybody's desperate trying to make ends meet
Work all day, still can't pay the price of gasoline and meat
Alas, their lives are incomplete

Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long Mohammed's Radio
I heard somebody singing sweet and soulful
On the radio, Mohammed's Radio

You've been up all night listening for his drum
Hoping that the righteous might just might just might just come
I heard the General whisper to his aide-de-camp
"Be watchful for Mohammed's lamp"

Don't it make you want to rock and roll
All night long Mohammed's Radio

This late Warren Zevon's song is echoing through my head today. Whether you fancy yourself Mohammed or the village idiot, I suggest you pay attention to the radio (or internet) for the sh*t is about to truly hit the fan in Syria. The jihadis have managed to retake Saraqib and cut the M5 afters days of relentless and costly attacks. To the south, an SAA attack spearheaded by the 25th Division and Liwa al Quds has retaken another large swath of Idlib south of the M4 including the Al Zawiya Mountains and the Al Ghab Plain. The 25th is now returning to Saraqib to spearhead the counterattack on that front. The 4th Armored Division may be joining them.

This back and forth on the battlefield is to be expected, especially with the direct support provided by Turkey to the jihadis. However something changed today. Russian and Syrian air attacks have increased with devastating results. Wild reports of a strike on a Turkish convoy and/or positions with up to a hundred dead Turkish soldiers are flashing across social media. Up to this point Turkish casualties have been a few here and a few there every day. This is a direct threat to Erdogan's authority. Twitter has been shut down within Turkey to hide the news. Turkish-Russian talks to redefine the Idlib deescalation zone have ended in failure. Erdogan has told all jihadis to be prepared to go for broke and has declared all Syria to be a target of the Grand Sultan's wrath. Putin has told Erdogan that his presence on any Syrian territory is temporary. All Syria will be ruled from Damascus.

Meanwhile, the old lady from South Carolina is pleading with Trump to establish a no fly zone in Idlib. I'm fairly confident that Trump will not fall for such stupidity, but who knows what will happen if Erdogan whispers sweet nothings in Trump's ear.

The rhetoric is becoming increasingly heated and the actions increasingly dangerous. What happens when Erdogan sends waves of refugees to Europe with the threat of Coronavirus in the wind? What happens if Erdogan confiscates Trump towers in Istanbul? Will Erdogan send his air force into Syria and will Russian and Syrian air defenses shoot down the Turkish planes? Is Putin about to deliver an Ottoman slap to Erdogan? Keep your ears to the radio, my friends.

TTG 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-palestinian-forces-advance-across-southern-idlib-video/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/battle-for-al-zawiya-mountain-region-nearing-its-end-as-syrian-troops-reach-last-towns/

The Failed Prognostications of Max Boot Regarding President Trump by Larry C Johnson

I stumbled across a Podesta email obtained by Wikileaks that is dated February 2016 and provides an amusing perspective on why the NeoCons and foreign policy establishment embodied by the likes of Mac Boot were so wrong about Donald Trump. It is especially delicious to read the disastrously wrong prognostications of Max Boot and Benn Steil three years into the Trump Presidency.

The story starts on 26 February 2016 when Been Steil sends an email containing a Weekly Standard article on Trump's policies that he co-authored with uber NeoCon, Max Boot,  to former North Carolina Senator, Erskine Bowles, who is closely tied to the Clintons. Bowles in turn sends the article to Clinton Campaign chair, John Podesta with the succinct message--"worth reading."

Let's dig in to the Boot/Steil piece. They start with this dig:

Following his primary victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, Donald Trump has established himself as the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. He has done so offering grandiose slogans — He'll Make America Great Again (MAGA)! He'll have us win so much we'll get bored with winning!

Leave it to these two chuckleheads to fail to grasp Trump's sense of humor (i.e., getting bored with winning) and to understand that Trump was serious about MAGA.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 30 JANUARY 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

KREMLINOLOGY. I've been at this business for a while and one of the things I've learned is that "Kremlinology" is a waste of time: speculating about who's who and the meaning of personnel appointments is worthless. Why? Because we simply don't know: we don't know why X was given that particular job and not another, we don't know how X and Y get along together and how they interact with Z. In fact we really don't know very much about X, what he thinks, why he thinks it and how he reacts to new things. It's all a black box: we see some of what goes in and what comes out and have little idea of what happened inside the box. (We don't know these things about our own countries – was Freeland promoted or demoted? – so what makes anyone think that we know these things about far-away Russia?) So it's hardly surprising that Kremlinology has been a complete bust – every move, including Putin's latest, surprises its practitioners. So I don't waste my time speculating: I don't know enough; nobody does. (The only worthwhile legacy of years of wasted effort is the HAT.)

NEW GOVERNMENT. That having been said, the new government seems to have a lot of ministers who are specialists in their ministry's field. We'll see how that goes. MacDonald gives names and backgrounds, Saker says the "Atlantic Integrationists" are weakened, Doctorow suggests it's connected with the feeble implementation of the National Projects. I say it's a step towards The Team's replacement with younger people who will carry the project on. I still expect that Putin will leave with a successor firmly positioned. Tennison, who met him way back when, thinks so too.

CONSTITUTION. Robinson doesn't see such a huge change. The usual outlets say Putin forever! (Can we pause a moment for a brief think? If he wanted power forever, all he had to do was drop clause 81.3. Nah, turn off brain and outgas: "some" "reportedly" and so on.) The other thing that we have learned is that Putin wants to make the two term restriction absolute.

DEMOGRAPHICS. A fall in the net population (immigration failed to compensate) because of the decrease in the number of women of reproductive age (fallout from the hard times of the 1990s.) Natural increase is expected to resume in three or four years. This month Putin announced a substantial increase in programs to encourage births and support families.

CORRUPTION. The (ex) policemen who framed Golunov will be charged. Not truly a case of protest forcing a change (although there were strong protests) but the system operating properly pretty quickly.

SANCTIONS. Russia now exports beef. (!)

FAKE NEWS. US Army liberated Auschwitz says the US Embassy in Denmark and Der Spiegel. Israel knows who did it, though. The US won the war; Hollywood told us so.

ANNIVERSARY. Saturday, as I calculate it, marked the day when the US and its minions had been in Afghanistan twice as long as the Soviets were. Record year for bombing, too.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. "There is ... a strong possibility that all Steele’s material has been fabricated." I always thought it was a complete fake with no Russian input (except maybe Skripal's). I reiterate: there was no Russian interference and no collusion. It's a phoney story to explain away Clinton's failure.

ASSASSINATION. Did Pompeo threaten Russian and Chinese officials with assassination? Misreported say I (Veterans Today and Pravda.ru – not a winning combination); don't see it in the actual speech.

NOT ON YOUR "NEWS" OUTLET. UNSC meeting on OPCW fakery. Thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands. You decide.

NUGGETS FROM THE STUPIDITY MINE. Schiff: Trump made a 'religious man' out of Putin. Pillow man, another of Schiff's nuggets. Reflect that his present career is based on his "knowledge" of Putin.

US DOLLAR. I'm interested that The Economist gets it (as the Mean Sea Level of conventional opinion, what it chooses to cover is significant): "But it is only under President Donald Trump that America has used its powers routinely and to their full extent, by engaging in financial warfare... They have in turn prompted other countries to seek to break free of American financial hegemony." If it's used as a weapon, it's no longer convenient. This man predicts the collapse of the USD this year. Russia has half a trillion's worth in its FOREX and gold kitty.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. UK approves limited use of Huawei; Pompeo not happy.

RUSSIA/CHINA. Donald Trump must split up Putin and Xi, the new odd couple. Not only does the author not realise that train left the station a long time ago, he's not even sure where the station is.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 16 JANUARY 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

THE GREAT RESHUFFLE. I do expect Putin to retire and assume him to be working on a succession plan to keep the team's aims in operation. He's due to go in about four years. I would not be surprised if we see something à la Kazakhstan where Nazarbayev still has a significant advisory authority.

1. NEW PM. Mikhail Mishustin, head of Tax Service. Is he the chosen one? (Would be a blow to the Hirsute Analytical Tool, though.) (Мишустин bio on Russian Wikipedia.)

2. CONSTITUTION. Putin suggested constitutional tweaks. A ban on any form of dual citizenship for certain positions: they must "inseparably connect their lives with Russia and the Russian people without any assumptions and allowances". The Duma should appoint the PM and the PM the government although little was said about exactly how responsibilities were to be divvied up. (Did he support removing the two consecutive term rule? Don't know – depends on what you think "этим" refers to.)

3. PRECEDENCE. Back when the world was simpler and happier and Russians naïve, the Constitution (Art 15.4) said "If an international treaty of the Russian Federation establishes rules other than those stipulated by the law, the rules of the international treaty apply." Brutal reality has taught Moscow the true nature of the "Rules-Based International Order" and Putin has proposed to reverse the authority.

4. MEDVEDEV. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council. I think it's a real job and not a sinecure.

WHAT'S IT MEAN? My take. Doctorow. MacDonald. We are broadly in step. Robinson discusses possibilities. Those who see Russia as one man and many robots of course see this as Putin hanging onto power forever. But their predictive track record is pretty pathetic, isn't it?

FEDERAL ASSEMBLY ADDRESS. In addition to the constitutional matters above, Putin's address (Rus) (Eng), touched on other subjects. He began with population – the births per woman were 1.5 and he wants to raise that to 1.7 and proposes more day care places and greatly extending existing financial support programs as well as spending to improve healthcare. All this is possible because "The federal budget has had a surplus again" and inflation is low. (Robinson points out, quite correctly, that there's a gap between what The Boss decrees and what actually happens. Nonetheless I'd say Putin has been much more successful than most leaders.) Foreign matters received the barest mention: situation in MENA threatening, Russia ready to cooperate, "defence capability is ensured for decades to come".

RUSSIA INC. Awara does a study of Russian and American earnings and demonstrates that, in purchasing power, they're a lot closer than you would think. It's not just money: health, housing and education – big expenses in the USA – are negligible in Russia.

CORRUPTION. After an investigation, the Russian Academy of Sciences has forced the retraction of hundreds of scientific articles for plagiarism and other forms of fraudulent behaviour.

RUSSIA, SPORTS AND DRUGS. It's all fakery – Mark Chapman takes the trouble to put it all together.

USN ALWAYS HAS RoW. Again the US accuses the Russian Navy of dangerous behaviour, again it was the USN ship that should have given way. (Give way to starboard vessel.) Speaking of rules-based.

IRAQ. It is reported that that Baghdad is in talks with Moscow on buying S-300 SAM systems. Baghdad orders Americans out; they refuse; Baghdad might need air defence that's independent of US backdoor programming.

TURKSTREAM. Formally launched by the two presidents in Turkey.

NOT IN YOUR "NEWS" OUTLET. Helmer discusses a German parliamentary report that shows that there really isn't any evidence that Russia "invaded" Ukraine or controls the rebels: "few reliable facts and analyses aside from the numerous speculations". It calls it a "civil war" (bürgerkriegs). Which is what it actually is (with assistance from NATO and Russia, to be sure). (Report, German only).

TROUBLE IN PARADISE. A contested presidential election led to pretty strong protests with the Supreme Court changing its ruling. The long and the short is that Raul Khajimba, an important player and President for six years, resigned on Monday. New elections will be held in March. Independent Abkhazia has not been very stable and I don't have any good sources to guide me on what's happening. Although I have been told it is determined on real independence, joining neither Russia nor Georgia.

NEW NWO. Iran has just demonstrated it belongs to the rather small club of countries which can precisely strike a target from far away. At least somebody got the message.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN RESHUFFLE by Patrick Armstrong

(Written on the evening of. So subject to reconsideration/revision/outright denial as we learn more.)

I didn't expect any of it. Neither did anyone else, whatever the so-called experts outgassing on the US Garbage Media may be pretending. I don't know what it all means. Neither does anyone else. (Well Putin & Co do, but they keep their cards close to their chests. As we've just seen.)

What do we know? Putin gave his annual address to the Federal Council (Rus) (Eng) and started off with how important it was that the birthrate should be raised. Fair enough: he wants more Russians on the planet, the government's programs have ensured that there will be quite a few more but there are still more to come. Many programs planned; some of which will work: after all, not everything works out as we hoped does it? He mentioned how dangerous the world is – especially the MENA – and said at least Russia is pretty secure (as indeed it is except against lunatics addicted to the Book of Revelation.)

Then the constitutional stuff. He believes the Constitution needs a few tweaks. Important officials should really be Russians and not people with a get-out-of-jail-card/alternate-loyalty-card in their vests. Reasonable enough: they should "inseparably connect their lives with Russia and the Russian people without any assumptions and allowances." (Good idea actually. Can we in the West steal the idea? We vote for X but who does he vote for?) Russian law should take precedence over decrees contaminated by the "Rules-Based International Order" ("we make the rules, you follow our orders"). The PM should be named by the Duma. (A pretty big change, actually: let's have more details on the division of labour please. In some countries the head of state is The Boss – USA, Russia (now), France – in others the head of government is The Boss – Germany, Canada, Denmark. There is a serious carve up of powers question here that has to be worked out in detail.) Constitutional changes should be approved in a referendum. The President either should or should not be bound by the no-three-terms-in-a-row-rule (I personally can't figure out what "этим" refers to in "Не считаю, что этот вопрос принципиальный, но согласен с этим. Не считаю, что этот вопрос принципиальный, но согласен с этим." But, no doubt we will soon learn.)

So, a somewhat less presidential republic. Details to be decided. Many details. But I'm confident that it's been worked out and we will learn. Putin & Co have shown us over 20 years that they don't make things up on the fly.

Then we learned that the entire government had resigned – but individuals to stay in place until replaced. Then we learned – a fast few hours indeed! – that Dmitri Medvedev was replaced by somebody that no one (other than Russian tax specialists) had ever heard of: Mikhail Vladimirovich Mishustin. (Russian Wiki entry – none in English so far.) Those cheering Medvedev's dismissal (something predicted and hoped for by a sector of Russianologists) had to then swallow this: not tossed out into ignominy and shame, as they wanted, but something else. Putin says that there is a clear distinction between government and presidential concerns; defence and security are clearly in the latter. But Medvedev has always been closely following defence and security issues and it is suitable and appropriate that he continue to do so. So a new position, deputy heard of the security council, will be created for him. So what are we to make of this? Medvedev has been given the boot and a sinecure? Or he's been given a crucial job in the new carve-up of responsibilities?

After all, Russia's problems keep getting bigger but nobody is getting any younger. Especially the problems from outside. For some years Washington, an implacable enemy of Moscow, has been getting less and less predictable. Lavrov and Kerry spend hours locked up negotiating a deal in Syria; within a week the US military attacks a Syrian Army unit; "by mistake". Who's in charge? Now with the murder of Soleimani, possibly on a Washington-approved peace mission, Washington has moved to another level of lawlessness and is exploring the next depth as it defies Baghdad's order to get out. A pirate power. The outside problems for Moscow aren't getting smaller, are they? Washington is certainly недоговороспособны – it's impossible to make an agreement with it and, if you should think you have done so, it will break it. A dangerous, uncontrollable madman, staggering around blowing everything up – is any foreign leader now to be assumed to be on Washington's murder list? Surviving its decay is a big job indeed. The problems are getting bigger in the Final Days of the Imperium Americanum.

So, maybe Moscow needs more people on the job.

So are we looking at a new division of labour in Moscow as part of managing the Transition? (To say nothing of the – what's the word? – Thucydides trap?). Mishustin looks after the nuts and bolt of Russia's economy and internal management. Medvedev looks after defence and security – something not likely to get smaller while Putin looks after the big picture?

But this is only the first step in The Transition and we will learn more soon. 

The Facts About Iran and Terrorism by Larry C Johnson

When emotion rules the day facts do not matter. Sadly, that is the reality we confront when it comes to talking about Iran and terrorism. The U.S. Government and almost all of the media continue to declare that Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism. That is not true. That is a lie. I realize that calling this assertion a lie opens me to accusations of being an apologist for Iran. But simply look at the facts.

Here is the most recent U.S. State Department claim about Iran and terrorism:

Iran remains the world’s worst state sponsor of terrorism. The regime has spent nearly one billion dollars per year to support terrorist groups that serve as its proxies and expand its malign influence across the globe. Tehran has funded international terrorist groups such as Hizballah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It also has engaged in its own terrorist plotting around the world, particularly in Europe. In January, German authorities investigated 10 suspected Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force operatives. In the summer, authorities in Belgium, France, and Germany thwarted an Iranian plot to bomb a political rally near Paris, France. In October, an Iranian operative was arrested for planning an assassination in Denmark, and in December, Albania expelled two Iranian officials for plotting terrorist attacks. Furthermore, Tehran continued to allow an AQ facilitation network to operate in Iran, which sends fighters and money to conflict zones in Afghanistan and Syria, and it has extended sanctuary to AQ members residing in the country.

You notice what is absent? A list of specific attacks that caused actual casualties. Plans and plots are not the same as actions. If Iran's malevolent influence was so powerful, we should be able to point to specific attacks and specific casualties. But you will not find those facts in the U.S. State Department report because they do not exist. 

Trump moves to unite the Middle East! (irony)

Teevee coverage of the recent events in the ME has been predictable.  Those who hated Trump continue to hate him, etc. 

A few observations:

1. I had hoped that Trump's decision to kill an Iranian general engaged in a diplomatic mission (among other things) while the man was on the soil of a supposed ally of the US was something Trump pulled out of his fundament either inspired by war movies or on the recommendation of "our greatest ally" but I am informed that in fact some idiot in the DoD included this option in the list of possibilities that was briefed to the CinC in Florida.  The decision process in such matters requires that when options are demanded by the CinC the JCS prepares a list supported for each option by fully formulated documentation that enables the president to approve one (or none) and then sign the required operational order.  Trump himself chose the death option.  I would hold General Milley (CJCS) personally responsible for not striking this option from the list before it reached the CinC. 

2.  The Iranians are a subtle people.  IMO they will bide their time whilst working out the "bestest" way to inflict some injury on the US and/or Israel.  When the retaliation comes it will be imaginative and painful.

3.  Trump is  now threatening the Iraqis with severe sanctions if they try to enforce their parliamentary decree against the future presence of foreign (US mostly) troops on their soil.  IMO a refusal to leave risks a substantial Shia (at least) uprising against the US forces in Iraq.  We have around 5,500 people there now spread across the country in little groups engaged in logistics, intelligence and training missions.  They are extremely vulnerable.  There are something like 150 marines in the embassy.  There are also a small number of US combat forces in Syria east and north of the Euphrates river.  These include a battalion of US Army National Guard mechanized troops "guarding" Syria's oil from Syria's own army and whatever devilment the Iranians might be able to arrange.

4.  This is an untenable logistical situation.  Supply and other functions require a major airfield close to Baghdad.  We have Balad airbase and helicopter supply and air support from there into Baghdad is possible from there but may become hazardous.  Iraq is a big country.  It is a long and lonely drive from Kuwait for re-supply from there or evacuation through there.  The same thing is true of the desert route to Jordan.

5.  Trump's strategery appears to be based on the concept that the Iraqis will submit to our imperial demands.  "We will see."  pl

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-strike-live-updates/2020/01/06/3b5451f2-3024-11ea-9313-6cba89b1b9fb_story.html?rand=4

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 2 JANUARY 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

TWENTY YEARS. Putin & Co have been running the place for two decades. I assess how well they accomplished his 1999 program and discuss the one thing he forgot about then but has since been forced to remember. The verdict has to be that they have achieved their goals extremely well. Twenty years ago Russia had a collapsed economy, was falling apart, lawless from top to bottom and insignificant in the world. Not any more. The propagandists at RFE-RL do their best to belittle the achievement. (USA and EU 20 years ago and now; Russia and China 20 years ago and now. You decide which management team you'd like.)

GOLD. Russia's FOREX kitty is US$548.7 billion of which gold (2.26 tonnes) accounts for about 20%.

RUSSIA INC. Reasonable quickie on the economy in 2019: de-dollarisation, turning eastwards, consolidation but still rather flat living conditions. Moscow is planning for the future. I still say that we are going to discover what Russia, freed from autocracy serfdom and bolsheviks, can do.

INFRASTRUCTURE. It's hard to keep up. Some videos for those who believe Russia is a stagnant mess. Local trains. New highway. Grozniy. Shopping in a Moscow region town. Don't need a freezer in Yakutsk. Aurus car factory. Trefoil Arctic base. Floating NPP. Beef farm. Farm in Voronezh. Maternity hospital. Fancy hotel in Crimea. Medium range passenger plane. Grocery store. Village shop. Restaurants in Irkutsk. ATOM tram. Siberian cities. Big changes – in my time it was more like this grocery store.

CRIMEA BRIDGE. Last week the railway part was formally opened and the first trains have crossed; the road part opened in May 2018. 63 months from decision to now; 46 from start of construction.

INTERNET TEST. Last week Russia tested the independence of its internet from world connections. The test was said to be successful. Not Russia cutting itself off but defending itself in case it is cut off.

HISTORY WARS. Putin displayed a number of documents relating to the start of the Second World War, thereby giving the fantods to many. But it's true, even if most people in the West are ignorant: Moscow did all it could to create an anti-Hitler alliance and only gave up at the very last moment. That having been said, my advice to Putin would be to stop trying to defend the USSR's territorial grabs – they were a cold-blooded attempt to gain strategic depth for the attack Stalin knew was coming.

NEW NWO. A Russia-China-Iran naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Not big but very symbolic.

RAQQA. Russian forces enter the town the US destroyed with "precision bombing".

NORD STREAM 2. Nearly finished and Washington is infuriated. Tucked into a gigantic military spending bill are sanctions against companies working on it; one company has already quit. The Russians say they can finish the job and Berlin remains determined to do so. So what will the net effect be? A few months' delay and Washington's allies even more irritated. Which, I speculate, might be the point.

FAKE NEWS. Russia bombs hospitals says NYT. But, if you look closely, you'll find, deep down, the admission that many of the given locations are wrong. That they are fakes doesn't occur to the NYT.

OPCW. More leaks (good summary). Corporate media pretty quiet: in UK, Hitchens then Fisk yesterday; only Carlson in the USA. I guess exposing the lies that support attacks on Syria aren't really real news.

NUGGETS FROM THE STUPIDITY MINE. "Its economy, already smaller than Italy’s, may be sputtering... ". Two howlers and he hasn't even finished the sentence.

US EXPERTISE. Somebody said that the USA has a shallow bench on Russia and so it does. Here's a rather brutal exposure of the "expert" who is presumably Biden's main advisor. Ten predictions about Russia in 2019, all assuming a malevolent expansionist lawless Russia. Result: no wins, many miserable misses. Has any US government "expert" got anything right about Russia? (Of course I exclude Cohen, Hahn et al; but they're not official. Unfortunately.) An echo chamber of complacent ignorance.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. Horowitz put a few nails in the conspiracy coffin, but only on the FBI part.

IMPEACHMENT. Who imagined that a little regime change to weaken Russia and get a naval base in Crimea would have such reverberations at home? And not, by any means, done yet.

UKRAINE. More encouraging steps. Another prisoner exchange (again most were, from Kiev's POV, Ukrainian citizens). And finally a gas deal that ensures transit through Ukraine and supply to Ukrainian users at a discounted price. All issues settled says Medvedev and Zelensky is also happy. (So miserable is Ukraine's economy that the transit fees will be 8% or more of Kiev's revenue.)

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

"Latest situation in foreign forces deployment in Syria" Yeni Safak

"The U.S. forces evacuated 16 bases and military posts during Operation Peace Spring and returned to six bases as the operation was paused.

The U.S. army strengthened its military presence in Syria’s northeastern border and oil fields.

With five bases and military posts in Hasakah province, the U.S. forces are conducting efforts to set up two other military posts in Qahtaniyah town and Himo village in Qamishli city.

The U.S. aims to both secure oil fields in Hasakah and strengthen its presence on the Turkish border with the military posts.

The U.S. forces are currently deployed at 11 bases and military posts, including five in Hasakah, four in Deir ez-Zor and two in Raqqa.

They also carry out efforts to set up two new bases in Deir ez-Zor."  Yebi Safak

-----------

Yes, this newspaper is pro-Erdo but this looks like a useful map to lay out where everyone is at present.  The map does not extend far enough south to include the US roadblocking position at Al Tanf on the Syrian/Iraqi border but other than that- pretty complete.  pl

 

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/latest-situation-in-foreign-forces-deployment-in-syria-3507700

Provoking a War with Russia? by Larry C Johnson

The anti-Russian insanity that dominates the politics of America is dangerous, stupid and detached from facts. Two news items from Wednesday (December 18th) should scare the hell out of you.

The first concerns Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which is nearing completion and will deliver gas to Europe. According to Reuters:

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday passed legislation to slap sanctions on companies building a massive underwater pipeline to bring Russian natural gas to Germany, but it was uncertain whether the measures would slow completion of the project. 

Senator Jim Risch, a Republican and the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the sanctions will prevent the project’s completion and are an “important tool to counter Russia’s malign influence and to protect the integrity of Europe’s energy sector.”

Nord Stream 2, led by state-owned Gazprom, would allow Russia to bypass Poland and Ukraine to deliver gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany. U.S. lawmakers say Ukraine could lose billions of dollars in transit fees if it is built.

This is not the fault of the Democrats. This is being driven by Republicans, with Senator Ted Cruz leading the charge.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 19 DECEMBER 2019 by Patrick Armstrong

PARIS MEETING. It happened but nothing much happened. Agreed to a ceasefire and to uphold Minsk. But Zelensky can't deliver: the Ukronazis amuse themselves by popping off rounds into towns in Donbass and Kiev refuses to take the next step: local elections in the rebel areas (Number 4). Nothing suggests that Macron pushed anything, although Zelensky wasn't able to make Number 9 into the next step. The EU extended sanctions; they include a demand for the "complete implementation of the Minsk agreements". If Macron had been serious about bettering EU-Russia relations, he would have had his representative object because Russia has no obligations under Minsk; if he didn't already know that, he learned it at the meeting. So, thus far, no evidence that his actions comport with his words.

PUTIN PRESS CONFERENCE. (Eng) (Rus) I'll say more next time if anything strikes me. Haven't seen anything new so far. Again, lots of details, mostly internal.

SHADOW ECONOMY. I had thought that the imposition of the flat income tax rate of 13% in 2001 had pretty well eliminated the problem of the "grey economy". But a recent study, comparing statistics on taxpayers against the number working, suggests that the "shadow economy" might be as high as 18% of the total workforce. I'm not convinced by that number: some people make too little to pay tax; added to which, given that there are proposals to raise the level from 13%, this study may be part of that discussion because it says that, were the non-payers to be captured, the tax rate could be cut to 11%. So that number might too high but it's something to keep an eye on.

LUZHKOV. Yuriy Luzhkov died last week. Long-time mayor of Moscow, he was fired in 2010. I remember the moment when, as it were, Moscow city began to turn around. There was a garbage skip on the little street where the Canadian Embassy was. It would fill up, keep filling, overflow, fill up some more, overflow again. One day, early in 1994, it was emptied and thereafter was regularly emptied. Say what you like about him and his wife dipping their beaks, but he got stuff done.

INF. Washington has killed the INF Treaty which prohibited intermediate range missiles in Europe. Foreign Minister Lavrov says Moscow will never be the first to deploy them in Europe. If the US did deploy them (their last attempt sparked huge protests) Moscow can have them there the next day.

CORRUPTION. Aleksey Kuznetsov, who was Moscow Region finance minister 2000-2008, was sentenced to 14 years for fraud and theft. He had fled the country but was extradited from France.

WADA. A 4-year ban on Russia. Two comments: more medals for us! And I guess the Russian team did too well in Syria. Anyhow, the new way is getting doctor's notes.

UK ELECTION. The craziness has hit there. Johnson is a Russian stooge; Russia has won the election; Fusion GPS (!!) tells us the UK needs a Mueller report.

SKIPALMANIA. "Ex-MP NORMAN BAKER is certain Russia has killed many people on British soil... but he believes we've been fed a pack of lies over the Salisbury poisonings". Say what you like about the DM, but occasionally it veers away from the-re-type-what-you're-handed mode. (PS Mr Baker, you're late to the party – you're just repeating Rob Slane – but welcome. BTW if they're lying to you now, what makes you so sure they weren't then too?) Skripal has phoned Russia three times – surreptitiously?

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. "Pentagon Concerned Russia Cultivating Sympathy Among US Troops". Too stupid to waste a sneer at.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Erdoğan threatens to close the two US bases in Turkey if Washington goes ahead with sanctions. A YouGov poll finds that a majority of Germans are in favour of reducing reliance on US (55%) and increasing ties with Russia (54%). NATO's biggest problems are internal cohesion. Germany rejects Washington sanctions on NordStream2. Der Spiegel defies Browder.

BAD DAYS FOR LIARS. Afghanistan war lies. Browder. Media lied about "Russiagate"; so did Schiff. And Comey. And of course, all the lies revealed by the IG: and that was just the FBI part of it. More from OPCW. All helping to make the idea of war with Russia more acceptable.

FAKE NEWS. Ukrainian reporter killed by Putin Ukronazis.

UKRAINE. One of Kiev's biggest supporters reiterates his advice that Kiev should let the Donbass go: too expensive to fix and they don't want to be in Ukraine anyway. All true enough but it's noteworthy that neither now, nor three years ago, does he mention Crimea. But the same arguments apply, don't they? And probably in Mariupol, Odessa, Transcarpathia and...

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 5 DECEMBER 2019 by Patrick Armstrong

POWER OF SIBERIA. Putin and Xi turned on the pipeline on Monday. It carries gas from Russia's Far East into China and has a carrying capacity of 61 billion M3 per year. There'll be more. This has no small strategic significance: previously, for foreign sales, Russia was dependent on customers in Europe who are all, to a greater or lesser extent, subject to pressure from the war party. Added to which transport was affected by Kiev's whims. Turkstream (scheduled to start next month) and the two pipelines to Germany help with the second problem and this one with the first. Sooner or later, Russia-China pipelines would have appeared but I think Ishchenko's argument that the Western war on Russia speeded up the process is credible. (Come to think of it, now that Putin's hand is imagined everywhere, maybe it's time to consider that he's the American war party's real backer; after all, everything it's touched has turned to dust: from the forever wars, to Iran's increased influence, to the Russia-China alliance and now the furore in the USA over Ukraine – itself another disastrous project.)

WEAPONS. More and more projects are surfacing. The Ground Forces commander says the Kungas robot family is ready for the next stage of tests – the Uran-9 UCGV is already in service. In accordance with the New START Treaty, Avangard was shown to US inspectors and it's expected to be in service this month: a very hypersonic re-entry vehicle – there's no defence against it because it's less than 30 minutes from anywhere. These super weapons are not cost free: Putin confirmed that the August explosion in Severodvinsk did involve an unique weapon (one assumes either the Buravestnik or the Poseydon); work will continue said he. An over-the-horizon radar station is opened. The first upgraded White Swan strategic bomber is being tested.

SOFTWARE. A law has passed requiring electronic gadgets to have Russia software in them. The BBC idiotically says: "Others have raised concerns that the Russian-made software could be used to spy on users". "Idiotically" because one of the reasons for the law is that US-made software is spying on users.

DEMOGRAPHICS. Karlin sees a small increase in Russia's population over the next 30 years.

TOURISM. Moscow – World's Leading City Destination 2019. Russia does show well.

CORRUPTION. The Russian Investigative Committee has opened a case into large scale theft during construction at the Vostochniy launch complex.

BROWDER. His story has been swallowed whole all over the West, "Magnitsky laws" passed and he has been pretty successful in quashing Nekrasov's documentary. But, finally, a major Western news outlet takes up the story: Der Spiegel: "The case of Magnitsky: How true is the history on which US sanctions against Russia are based?" How true is it? Not very. (DS did it because of the ECHR decision?) DS merely repeats what Nekrasov discovered: watch the documentary and see the lies taken apart.

NATO SUMMIT. "NATO is obsolete" argues with "NATO is brain dead". "The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to Afghanistan": next month NATO will have doubled the USSR's time there; can it triple it? Busy busy busy: "much broader range of threats than in the past": Russia, Middle East, Africa, weapons of mass destruction, cyber attacks, threats to energy supplies, environmental challenges. Add China. And space. More money. Trump leaves early. Brain dead and obsolete.

OPCW. Corrupted over Douma, how about Skripal? Helmer tweets: "British Ministry of Defence document reveals it is missing chain of custody over Skripal blood samples which the ministry’s DSTL laboratory at Porton Down claims to prove a Russian Novichok attack. Publishing shortly." Somebody could have added "type A-234 nerve agent in its virgin state" or BZ to the sample? Nah, who'd do that?

WADA. A other corrupted organisation. (Tinfoil hat alert!) Dear Little Canada behind it?

THE FULL AMERICAN DELUSION IN 45 SECONDS. No comment.

THE DEMS STEP ON THE RAKE. Impeachment. Only question is how big will Trump's win be?

NEW NWO. "Macron offers a very coherent geopolitical view of the world. He’s probably now the only western leader to have one." Very interesting read. The Normandy meeting will tell us if he's serious.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Six more EU countries join the INSTEX payment system to bypass US sanctions on Iran. US Germany Ambassador not amused. German poll: US down, Russia up.

UKRAINE MISCELLANY. A discussion of how dangerous the decision to use US fuel in Ukraine nuclear power plans could be. A Maidan participant realises that it was all for nothing. Ukronazis spotted in Hong Kong. The scourge has spread to the USA. Tails, dogs, chickens, roosts.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 21 NOVEMBER 2019 by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA INC. The Russian economist Mikhail Dmitriev says "the Russian economy does not give a damn about the world recession [which he sees coming soon]." And he's right – the Russian economy is the most self-reliant large economy in the world: very little external debt, few imports and a big nest egg of foreign currency and gold. Very self-sufficient (but no French cheese – remember that nonsense?) Ironic, isn't it? the West's war against Russia has strengthened it.

HE'S EVERYWHERE! Putin has the UK election covered they shriek: the Labour leader is a "useful idiot", soft on Russia, a "Putin stooge"; and the Conservative leader hobnobs with ex-KGB agents and suppresses reports on the Russian interference. We're watching the brain death of Western democracy.

NATO. Speaking of brain death, Macron conjured up another kerfuffle in an interview. Europe, said he, can no longer count on Washington and has to stand up on its own. Second time he's said things that should not be said. So far it's only talk but a test of his sincerity is coming on 9 December when he hosts a Ukraine meeting to which he has invited Putin, Zelensky and Merkel. The Kremlin spokesman had no opinion about NATO's health: "We are not forensic pathologists".

BUTINA. Finally released and back in Russia. Still a "spy" or "agent" to corporate media consumers.

NORD STREAM. At last, resisting much pressure from Washington, Denmark has granted permission for the pipeline to pass through its sea floor.

NEOLOGISMS. Adding to his useful Russophrenia, Bryan MacDonald has coined "Putophrenia": "A condition where the sufferer believes Vladimir Putin is a crazed Russian nationalist who wants to destroy the West, and simultaneously, is, together with his cronies, robbing Russia blind & hiding all the dosh in the same West." These two neatly point up the absurdities of the Western propaganda line.

"INTEGRITY" INITIATIVE. "British Government Disinformation Shop Lost Charity Status - Continues In New Format". Of course it's what you don't see in propaganda operations that's important.

IMPEACHMENT CIRCUS. We learn two things. Yes, there is a deepstate/blob/borg/groupthink in the US government that believes that only it – "consensus views of the interagency" – has the right to make foreign policy and is prepared to weaken a POTUS who steps out of line. Second, Washington's policy on Ukraine is being run by people who have a dog in the fight.

CUBAN NOISES. Mass hysteria – dancing mania. But the lie is half way round the world already and the State Department still bangs on about "unexplained health incidents".

SKRIPALMANIA. More delay on the Sturgess inquest. Sounds like Litvinenko eh? Same scriptwriers.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. "US Man Warns of 'Russian Mind Controlling Devices' in Americans' Ears, Turns Himself In to FBI". "Mental illness" or too much corporate media?

OPCW. Corrupted: "Fairweather, the chef de cabinet, invited several members of the drafting team to his office. There they found three US officials who were cursorily introduced without making clear which US agencies they represented. The Americans told them emphatically that the Syrian regime had conducted a gas attack...." Faked: "Its conclusions contradicted the inspector’s version." False. "Most of the Douma team felt the two reports on the incident, the Interim Report and the Final Report, were scientifically impoverished, procedurally irregular and possibly fraudulent."

WESTERN VALUES™. OPCW. MSF. HRW. Squandering credibility that took years to build.

RATS, SHIPS, UKRAINE. Kolomoisky's interview. Shattering: a major player in post-Maidan Ukraine; funded Azov; fully supported the coup although he fell out with the others; thought by many to be the power behind President Zelensky. Key points. It's time for Ukraine to turn toward Russia. Washington is forcing Ukraine to be at war – a "war against Russia to the last Ukrainian". The EU and NATO will never take Ukraine in and it's time to accept reality. Russia will give money. If the Americans "get smart with us, we’ll go to Russia. Russian tanks will be stationed near Krakow and Warsaw. Your NATO will be soiling its pants and buying Pampers." He is trying to end the war but is afraid that the Americans “will mess it up and get in the way.” When a Kolomoisky switches sides, it's over. Stay tuned.

UKRAINE. Just when you thought that everything that could be stolen, had been stolen, they come up with something else. Land sales. Not to foreigners of course; well, maybe a referendum. Big foreign companies have been wanting in and in a country as corrupt as Ukraine laws are a flimsy barrier

MH17. Now there's some hope in Ukraine, it's time for the JIT to "discover" something or other.

SHIPS. Moscow has returned to Kiev the ships it captured in November. Video.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

"...Tucker Carlson Criticized for Saying 'Russia Poses No Threat to the United States At All'"

"If we're really being honest here, Russia poses no threat to the United States at all."

"Too many careers depend upon keeping our assumptions exactly where they were in the fall of 1977, when fighting the Soviet Menace consumed the lion's share of our federal budget," Carlson said.

"So here in Washington that's what we're doing. Our real fear is that the rest of America will at some point discover that the Soviet Union no longer exists," he continued.

Carlson went on to list things about Russia intended to minimize their power: an economy the size of Italy's, a military budget that is one-tenth of ours and an aircraft carrier "that needs to be towed around the ocean because it's broken."  Newsweek

------------

Yup.  It is true, pilgrims.  The USSR no longer exists.

For years after the fall of that communist monstrosity, Soviet specialist analysts in the IC used to sing at office Christmas parties in Washington that they were dreaming of "A Red Christmas Just Like The Ones They used to Know."  These characters had lived "high on the hog" since WW2.  They got the lion's share of everything, funds, attention, you name it.  Poor sods like me who specialized in regions where people actually fought each other with rusty rifles and machine guns were definitely the poor relatives come to town hat in hand.

And then, all of a sudden, the Soviet specialist people were essentially out of a job.  Or, at least, they were a hell of a lot less important.  The same thing happened to all the Iranian specialists when the Pahlavis went down.  Fortunately for me, my good old Arabs and other assorted ME scoundrels kept right on bashing and backstabbing each other while most of them sat on a great big puddle of oil.  That and the Zionist thing kept me well employed.

The Soviet guys needed a few years to rebound, but as Tucker says, they have done so by merchandising the notion that Russia = the USSR.  The two pomposities (Taylor and Kent) from the Foreign Service who testified yesterday made it very clear that their real bitch against Trump is that 1.  He thinks he can do business overseas without their bureaucratic intervention and 2.  He doesn't really accept the assumption that Russia is an indispensable and inevitable enemy.  Kent rather sadly said that it has been a basic assumption of his entire career that Russia is THE ENEMY.  The whole swamp is infected with group think to that effect.  In the case of the Foreign Service it is remarkable that such a group of soi-disant intellectuals and sophisticated veterans of the FOREIGN SERVICE EXAM should in truth be just another bunch of conformists seeking the approval of their colleagues.  But, then, that is how one gets promoted.

No, pilgrims, China is THE REAL ENEMY.  pl

https://www.newsweek.com/fox-news-tucker-carlson-criticized-saying-russia-poses-no-threat-united-states-all-1471681