Sic Semper Tyrannis

Neocon Jack Keane wants a permanent US presence in Syria

 

"Keane retired from military service in 2003. He now works as a national security analyst for Fox News. He has served an advisory role in the management of the U.S. occupation of Iraq, as a member of the Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee. In January 2007, Keane and scholar Frederick W. Kagan released a policy paper, entitled "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq",^[7] through the American Enterprise Institute that called for bringing security by putting around 30,000 additional American troops there for a period of at least 18 months. In part convinced by this paper, President George W. Bush ordered on January 10, 2007, the deployment of 21,500 additional troops to Iraq, most of whom would be deployed to Baghdad, this deployment has been nicknamed the 2007 "surge".    wiki on Keane

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I watched this man hold forth this morning on Varney and Company a business and politics show hosted by Stuart Varney a fervently American immigrant from England who apparently never saw a jingo he didn't like.

General Keane is a close associate of the Kagans, Victoria Nuland, Petraeus and the like.  He has consistently pressed in policy circles for aggressive foreign policy ventures including the Iraq "Surge" that helped secure the Baghdad area from Iraqi insurgents.  In fact the security situation markedly improved across Iraq because Petraeus was smart enough to encourage the work that had been done by Green Berets and junior USMC people in encouraging the Sunni Arabs to abandon support of the jihadi guerrillas.

On Varney's show today Keane pushed for a US policy in Syria that would establish a "security zone" in Syria east of the Euphrates and in the Kurdish areas east of Manbij.  He was clear that he believes that this "security zone" should be held indefinitely, in other words, permanently.

He said that such a zone would prevent the western expansion of Iran through northern Iraq and then Syria westward to the Mediterranean thus completing the dreaded Shia Crescent.  The fact that the Iraqi sovereign government might object to such Iranian expansion did not seem to occur to him.  Perhaps he has taken note of the condemnation by that Shia Arab dominated government of the FUKUS missile strikes in Syria.

To help the FUKUS forces hold this enclave indefinitely, he repeated the notion that the Sunni majority countries in the region should contribute armed forces to the Sunni Enclave.  DJT has recently said much the same thing.  This raises the possibility to me that his "thinking" on this matter originates with the arch neocons and their favorite vehicle the Institute for the Study of War, a Kagan operation through and through.  Well, pilgrims, I am here to tell you that the Sunni Arab countries are not going to do that,  Apart from Jordan's small but competent forces, the rest have no armed forces capable of doing anything but oppress civilian populations.  Saudi Arabia's indefensible war against the people of Yemen is a perfect example of the military ineptitude of the Sunni Arab states.  Repeatedly defeated by the Houthis and the rump of the Yemeni Army the Saudi have resorted to employing African and other mercenaries against the Yemenis as well as pursuing a savage campaign of aerial bombing against Yemeni civilians.  Perhaps they were inspired to do this by the courses of study of RSAF officers at the US Air Force "University" at Montgomery, Alabama.  the Strategic Bombing theories of Douhet are still much admired there.

Toward the end of his discourse this morning, Keane, came to the crux of his argument.  He said that a war is coming in which Iran, Hizbullah and the Syrian government will fight Israel and that the US must be in a position in Syria to defend Israel when that happens.  Thus it is revealed that the source of Keane's (and now DJT's) thinking is simply Israel's obsession with the hostility of the Gentile World to include all those Muslims surrounding them.  In other words, Keane's neocon pitch is based on Zionist fear.

Keane several times repeated a line to the effect that no US combat brigades or regiments would be committed to the Sunni Enclave.  To believe this magical thinking is to believe that no real fighting would eventually have to be done.

I have seen a poll today that indicates that 61% of the American people approve of the FUKUS missile strikes against the fictional chemical weapons target set in Syria.  The gullibility involved in that is impressive.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Keane

What should Gringos want in our relations with Mexico? - Republished from November 2012

(Given DJT's announced intention to

use US troops (perhaps NG) on the border

IMO the CinC should  decide what ROE will be.  pl

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According to the author of the cited article American citizens of Mexican descent want a path to citizenship for those of their ethnic community who are presently residing illegally in the US.  At the same time they find it acceptable that there be fairly onerous conditions placed on the "path" to citizenship.

"Latino voters are very comfortable with requirements regarding old or outstanding taxes, criminal background checks, continuous residence in the US and the learning of English. The community is more or less evenly divided on a provision for directly fining people, and a majority oppose touch-back provisions that requires undocumented residents of the US to return to nations of origin to complete the paperwork process."  Beyondchron

I can see all that as a reasonable set of aspirations so long as it is combined with a continuing major effort to halt illegal immigration across our borders.

It is at that point that I part company with people like Congressman Gutierrez of Illinois who baldly insists that deportation of illegal residents of the US must stop.  Living in the US without citizenship or a proper visa is a violation of US law.  Was Gutierrez not sworn to uphold US law? 

The president elect of Mexico has recently been in Washington talking about Mexico's hopes and requirements with regard to the US.

Americans should start talking about our demands and desires with regard to Mexico.  The Mexican-American lobby operation in the US is seeking to create an ambiance in which only Mexico and Mexican-Americans in the US have "rights."  In fact this relationship between the two countries must be one of reciprocity.

What should we want from Mexico in return for the "immigration reform" that it wants here?

- We should insist on the right to reside permanently anywhere in Mexico that we choose after emigrating there legally.  There should be a clear path to Mexican citizenship that mirrors provisions in US law.  This path should not include a necessary renunciation of US citizenship.  US law does not require that for naturalization.

- We should insist on the right to own real property in Mexico on the same basis as Mexican citizens.  This should apply to personal as well as commercial property. 

- We should insist that net profits after taxes of American owned businesses in Mexico should be fully repatriatable.

- We should demand a joint US/Mexican judicial tribunal that tries drug traffickers and condemns the guilty to execution or imprisonment. 

pl 

http://www.beyondchron.org/articles/What_Latinos_Want_in_an_Immigration_Reform_Bill_10744.html

Syria Notes - 5 February 2018

 

1.  Nikki Haley is either completely gullible or is in thrall to some collection of Borgists at State. Someone remarked of a previous US Secretary of State that "if only he were still alive this would not happen."  Unfortunately he was still alive and in office.  Much the same could be said of Rex Tillerson.  Haley is now tub thumping for US air attacks on Syria.  This a reprise of several previous US assertions of Syrian Arab Government (SAG) use of chemical weapons including the East Ghouta and Khan Sheikhoun fiascos.  After Khan Sheikhoun the SAG invited US and UN investigations of the air base but somehow this was not accepted.  Now James Mattis is asserting that the SAG is manufacturing chemical munitions although the US has no evidence of this as yet.  I believe this is called "confirmation bias?"

2.  As shown above , the SAA is committed to elimination of the East Idlib pocket.  The jihadis are without re-supply and will progressively be running out of the means of resistance.  This should not take too long and is actually a good idea before proceeding further into Idlib Province to the west.  I believe I expressed an opinion as to the wisdom of such a move.

3.  The SAA has begun shelling the Turkish strong point (observation post) at Al-Eis.  The Turks have been attempting tricky cleverness by claiming that they are occupying the hill at Al--Eis un accord with a Russian/Iranian/Turkish de-escalation igreement.  In fact IMO they are seeking to position themselves so as to impede SAG liberation of Idlib Province.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-looses-artillery-fire-turkish-forces-south-aleppo-casualties-reported/

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-liberates-4-villages-from-isis-in-northeastern-hama-map/

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/nikki-haley-russia-syria-chemical-weapons-390811

Israel is trying to blow up the ME again.

(Burkan2)

IMO Bibi is trying to steer the world of the goyim . Iran and Hizbullah are his betes noires.   In Jared Kushner he has IMO a nearly perfect liaison to send back and forth between Washington and Riyadh to whisper in the ears of the high and mighty and to "inform" his father in law, an ignoramus in geopolitics, as to Bibi's "truth."

In Bibi World an optimum outcome would be for the US and Israel to destroy Hizbullah's strategic rocket and missile forces using US strategic air and cruise missile assets and then move on to wrecking Iran.

Let us be clear, Saudi Arabia would contribute nothing to such wars.  Their armed forces are some of the world's largest static displays of export model military equipment.  As my Canadian grandfather used to say of the truly useless, "they aren't worth a piss hole in the snow."

Adel Jubeir (aka the Chihuaha) is the foreign minister of SA.  He is a commoner kept around as a convenience because he speaks native US English.  He acquired that from attendance at US community schools in the various capitals in which his diplomat father served.  Jubair now claims that the missile fired at Riyadh was "smuggled" into Yemen from Iran and fired by Lebanese Hizbullah.  Well, guess what?  These are Bibi's two great bugaboos.  Where do you think the Chihuahua got this "data?"  Saudi Arabian  intelligence is a joke.  They can't find their asses with both hands.  IMO Jubair got that from Kushner who got it from the Israelis.  I would bet my own money that Kushner's phone and E-mail traffic would be very interesting to read.

The missile battalion of the pro-Salih faction of the Yemeni Army who fired this missile have a long experience of ballistic missiles.  They had SCUD when I was Defense Attache there thirty years ago. They have been firing ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia throughout the present war.

All in all, a bibi scam that is working well.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano_H-2

"Demand to cancel Iran deal is an Israeli spin" by Ron Ben-Yishai

 

" ... it’s clearly in the best interest of everyone—including the US and Israel—to uphold the nuclear agreement with Iran and then increase the measures to supervise its implementation in letter and spirit. The US, for example, is currently embroiled in an active nuclear dispute with North Korea, and cancelling the nuclear agreement with Iran will only cause trouble on another front and increase China and Russia’s extortion abilities towards the US.

Moreover, the US has no interest in withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran because all its European partners would not follow in its footsteps and, as a result, Iran would have no problem bypassing the sanctions that would be imposed by the US. An American demand to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran might also split the United Nations Security Council."  Ron Ben-Yishal

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Israel under its present government wants Iran to be Morgenthau-ized (made into a pastoral rug factory) so as to eliminate any possible threat to itself now or in the future.  For Israel a 1% threat is too much.  Oddly enough (irony alert) that was Cheney's number as well. 

IAEA has once again certified Iran's compliance with JCPOA.  In spite of that Israel's entourage (including DJT) claim that Iran is not in compliance with the SPIRIT of JCPOA.  What does that mean?  Evidently the argument is that without Israel friendly policies in all fields, Iran can never be in compliance with JCPOA, this in spite of the fact that JCPOA is specifically and solely concerned with a putative Iranian nuclear weapons program.  pl 

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5017556,00.html

Good news from Syria

 

"The US and Russia rejected an Israeli request to prevent the presence of any Iranian forces or Iranian-backed militias near the Israeli border as a part of the ceasefire agreement in south Syria, the Israeli Haaretz newspaper reported on Thursday.

According to the report, Israel demanded to create a 60-80km wide buffer zone inside Syria against Iranian-backed forces. The supposed buffer zone would spread from the Golan Heights to the west of the Damascus-al-Suwayda highway in southwestern Syria.

Israel proposed its idea to Russia and the US during the talks that preceded the cease-fire agreement in southern Syria. According to the report, Russia refused the Israeli proposal, while the US didn’t back it for real mostly.

However, Russia promised Israel that the Iranians and their allies will not move any closer to Israel than five kilometers in the areas held by the Syrian government. The report noted that no Iranian presence was notified on the frontline with Syria for months now."  SF 

https://southfront.org/russia-resfused-israel-demand-of-60km-buffer-zone-against-iranian-backed-forces-in-southern-syria/

*****

"The US Coalition forces are not planning to enter Deir Ezzor City, the spokesperson for Operation Inherent Resolve, U.S. Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, told reporters on Thursday.

“I’ll just tell you that the plan is not to go into Deir Ezzor City, but there (are) plenty of ISIS fighters and resources and leaders that continue to have holdouts throughout the middle Euphrates River valley,” Dillon concluded.

It was initially believed the US Coalition would attempt to out-maneuver the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to the strategic city of Albukamal on the Iraqi border; however, this does not appear to be an option for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)." 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-backed-forces-not-entering-deir-ezzor-city-coalition-spokesperson/

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 "You asked "Is there a SAG-SDF deal?" This morning's press briefing by Coalition Spokesman indicated that the SDF do have direct communications with the regime. It is through their own line of communication and NOT through the Russian/CJTF deconfliction hotline. Did not go into detail, did not indicate at what level either on the SDF side or on the regime side. So at least there are talks going on even if it is not a full fledged deal."  Comment from Mike

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1.  The US/Russian refusal of Israel's wish for a 50 km. buffer zone free of Iranian/Hizbullah presence east of the Golan Heights occupation line suggests that there is substantial US/Russian coordination on Syria policy.

2.  Yesterday, the US coalition forces announced through its official spokesman, that SDF forces would not try to enter the city of Deir al-Zor.  This did not seem to be the case earlier given the SDF's rapid advance to the cross Euphrates suburbs of the city.  This suggests that the policy of coordination with Russia in Syria has percolated from the White House to the US field command or that the SDF has told their American minders that they are not willing try to "outmaneuver" the Syrian government east of the Euphrates.

3.  Mike's comment above indicates that a separate non/US-Russian link now exists between the SDF and the Syrian government.  This bodes well for a post civil war Syria and its territorial integrity.  pl

"US will allow Iranian forces in Syria to operate within 8 km of Israel" by Andrew Illingworth

 

"The United States will allow Iranian military elements and Iranian-backed militias operating in Syria to take up positions within eight kilometers of Israel’s Golan border region according to a report released yesterday by the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat news agency.

The report stated that an agreement to allow both actual Iranian forces and Iranian proxies in Syria to establish bases as close as eight kilometers to both the Jordanian and Israeli borders was recently reached between US and Russian diplomats following talks in Jordan.

This report comes at a time when Russia has official downplayed Israeli hysteria over the presence of Iranian forces in Syria, refusing to entertain Netanyahu’s claims that Iran is preparing to attack Israel."  Andrew Illingworth in Al Sharq al Awsat

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Well, well, pilgrims.  ASAA has always had deep Saudi royal family ties so one must question the motive for this publication of work by Mr. Illingworth, whoever he may be.  Is this Saudi spite at evidence of subterranean Trump Administration cooperation with Russia over both Iran and Syria?

Bibi must be eating his own guts at the thought.  All that and Sarah up to her hips in corruption investigation, being PM just isn't what it used to be,

 Can it be that the whisperings between the Trumpian foreign policy gaggle and the Rooshians actually had substance.  Can it be?

BTW  The last I heard was that the buses were still out in the desert somewhere near Sukhna having been re-routed.   CENTCOM still can't work out what to do with them. 

And I sure hope that IS keeps throwing troops at the R+6 in SE Raqqa.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-will-allow-iranian-forces-syria-operate-within-8-km-israel/

A Syrian Cordon Sanitaire: Is Israel huffing & puffing, or is it serious ? Alastair Crooke

   

Israel has backtracked on the Amman ‘ceasefire’ agreement negotiated by the US, Russia and Jordan. The latter established the outline for a de-escalation zone in south-west Syria. From the outset, this accord was all about Israel, and its Jordanian junior partner.  Initially, Israel said ‘yes’, (and participated in some of the discussions), but earlier this week the Israeli PM had a change of mind. Israel now says that the ceasefire (which has been holding up well) is a very bad deal for Israel – and that none of its security demands were met. Ben Caspit, a senior Israeli commentator, quotes a source familiar with the matter: “This is not just some disagreement. This is a real clash, pitting Israel against Russia and the United States. It reflects Israel's conspicuous disappointment with the way that the Americans let Putin outmaneuver them, leading to the sellout of Israeli interests in the Golan Heights and Lebanon versus the Shiite axis.”  

The reverse is true: in fact the Amman negotiators’ intent from the outset had been to halt the Syrian army and its partner forces – on a roll, taking back swathes of its sovereign territory, as insurgent forces melted away – from getting too close to the Golan armistice line.  American negotiators at the talks were plain enough: the US had only two objectives in the talks – to protect Israel, and to defeat ISIS.  And these aims were fully reflected in the provisional agreement that froze the conflict, and imposed a "no foreign fighters” cordon of 20 kms on the Syrian side of the Golan armistice line and the Syrian-Jordanian border (that would exclude Iranian, Lebanese and Iraqi militia) for a defined period of time. Furthermore, this entire zone would be monitored and enforced by Russian police forces. 

On the face of it, the US negotiators did the job that they had set out to do. So, why is Israel backtracking, and escalating – post hoc – its demands ?  It now says that it will not tolerate a permament Iranian or Hizbullah presence in Syria - at all. The former head of the Israeli NSC has said explicity that Israel may use military force to halt any bases being established.  

Plainly, Netanyahu is disappointed and angry. His hopes for a Saudi-led, “Sunni" coalition that would confront, contain and roll-back Iranian influence - have imploded with the mess that constitutes the present intra-GCC fratricide. Equally, his hopes for a logistics corridor and buffer - running along the north of the Syrian-Iraqi border and extending to the Euphrates river - collapsed when the Iraqi government, angered by President Trump’s launch of an explicit anti-Shi’a alliance in Riyadh (when he bundled PMU militia and Hizbullah as principal actors in the terrorist problem), tipped the balance.  The Iraqi government gave the PMU the green light to open the Iraqi-Syrian border from both sides. 

I would guess that Netanyahu scents that Israel’s part in the Syrian conflict is inching towards an endgame – and that the future no longer portends a weak Syria, riven with Israeli-friendly jihadi forces, balkanising the territory, as expected. But rather, a Syria fully connected with Hizballah, Iran, and now, with an increasingly pro-active, if inchoate, Iraqi PMU constellation. 

Is Israel, in its frustration, then thinking to impose its own buffer zone, as it did in southern Lebanon?  At a guess, probably ‘no’. The lesson of southern Lebanon is still too raw to contemplate a ‘physical’ buffer zone. An Israeli troop presence in southern Syria would be an open invitation to guerrilla action, in order to repulse the invaders.  The threats from the Israeli PM, more likely, are an attempt to change the Syria ‘rules of the game’ – to broaden Israel’s military license to act unilaterally and without accountability, in the SW zone of Syria in support of their Israel-friendly jihadis around Quneitra. In practice, this has already begun – albeit under the pretext of Israel responding to cross-border ‘stray fire’. 

Possibly, Israel now presumes that the US Administration has lost patience with the regime-change agenda for Damascus (given the collapse of the Saudi-led GCC front).  Washington prefers a quick public victory over ISIS in Raqa’a – and then largely to wash its hands of Syria. US eyes are moving-on -- Trump has just decided to scrap the ‘covert’ CIA to arm “moderate” Syrian “rebels”. 

So PM Netanyahu probably is trying to salvage what he can of his anti-Iran campaign. On Tuesday, the White House issued a statement pushing Congress to authorise new ‘temporary' intermediate staging facilities in Iraq and Syria ‘as a part of the US-led campaign against the Islamic State’ (details on existing US bases have just been released by Turkey). But, as Corri Zoli, director of research at Syracuse University’s Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism told Al-Monitor.

The Great Game of Radical Narrative Change (and its Drawbacks) by Alastair Crooke

 It is clearer now: Trump seeks radical ‘narrative metamorphosis’. No more shall America be perceived as ‘weak'. America shall be ‘strong'. US rhetoric against North Korea, Russia and Iran, again is larded with ultimata - and is stridently bellicose. Plainly, the US rhetoric, per se, has done wonders for the US President’s domestic poll ratings, and may help unblock Congressional doors for his crucial domestic budgetary endeavours.  (It is not so certain however, whether these high favourability ratings would prove so durable should the ‘Tough America’ tactic lead to actual war).

How much the bellicosities are directed internally towards US public opinion - and are Trump’s demonstration of the merits of businessman-negotiator’s bluff at work - is not clear?  Neither is it clear how much the threats are intended to be militarily executed, should his ‘negotiator’s bluff’ be called.  Plainly, if the bluff is called, America will be perceived to be hollow – and will be weakened. Nor is it clear, how much ‘the threats’ will actually ‘give peace a chance’.  The threats may only paint the new Administration into rigid binary positions that otherwise the Trump Team would not wish to hold.  All that, remains to be seen.

The Middle East however, is more familiar than other regions with this old Israeli strategy: ‘The boss has gone nuts! Watch out: Anything may happen: For goodness sake, placate him quickly’.  Often, the Israeli version of the ‘boss has gone nuts’ was proved to be no more than theatrical bluff.  Certainly, Iran has seen through these ploys, and simply does not believe them now.  In a sense, Israel has already devalued this currency.

The Trumpist ‘narrative metamorphosis’ tack, as transient as it may prove to be, will however directly impact and shape the Middle East -- at least for the time being. But at last, we can, after a period of extended disorientation, try to draw some conclusions about what this may mean.  Of course, should the Trump ‘hard-nosed negotiator approach’ either bog down with North Korea (where it is quite possible that the Chinese do not share the US desire to see North Korea run up the ‘white flag’, and become disarmed, and wholly ‘docile’), or lead the US closer to real war with North Korea, it is possible that Trump may switch back to ‘peacemaker mode’.  That is to say, he may attempt to reverse (if not too many bridges have been burnt in the meantime).  Be sure, though, that if not entirely burned, the bridges are very badly fire-damaged – beyond, perhaps, that which is properly understood in Washington.

The first point – a simple statement of fact - is that if America does wish convincingly to project its image of strength globally, the Pentagon surely will insist on retaining its necklace of US military bases in the Gulf. The US will therefore, consequently, remain aligned to Saudi Arabia (and, of course, therefore, to Israel, with its own particular regional interests too).

The second point is that Saudi Arabia and its allies, naturally, will lever this US-Gulf-Israeli military and intelligence alignment against Iran - to the latter’s detriment: this will be exploited, further to deepen Irano-phobia within Washington, where both the Gulf and Israel command and fund extensive political ‘assets’.

The third sequela that flows from this Strong America ‘narrative’ is that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will take advantage of their seemingly revived political status with the US Administration to fire-up (again) the Sunni rebellions in both Iraq and Syria, and to continue to pursue a humiliating defeat for the Houthis and AnsaAllah in Yemen. (They – the Houthis – must accept the solution as decreed by the United Nations, without equivocation, MbS reportedly told Mr Trump).  Political solutions in any of these states therefore, will not be available for the duration of this phase of politics: that is to say, until things, somehow change.

Finally, the Gulf partisan lobby in Europe and America, egged on by those John Brennan adherents who still lead the wholly politicised western intelligence services, will seek to re-instate regime-change as the policy for Syria (by fabricating further false allegations of Syrian government chemical weapon use). This campaign neatly combines the aims of the ‘Gulf partisans’ movement’ (and their Israeli allies) to weaken Iran - with those of the Cold War ‘contingent’ seeking to undermine President Putin, and to weaken Russia.  Iran and Russia will conclude that they have little alternative but to finish the war in Syria speedily, and to prevent America’s attempt to insert a Sunni-Wahhabi wedge between Iran and Syria (a wedge seen by western hawks as possessing additionally the merit of putting an end to any thoughts of an Iranian oil pipeline serving Europe, via Syria).

To repeat, all the above points simply flow, ipso facto, from the one single premise: that Trump wishes to project America as being ‘globally strong’ again – and the need therefore, to align with the Gulf. It is not clear that Team Trump thought through these sequellae, or that they had the intention to re-invigorate the neo-cons (which is what has been done). Rather, any thought of benefitting the neo-cons is unlikely. More probable is that the notion of ‘looking militarily strong’ seemed a natural enough concomitant to the President’s businessman-negotiator doctrine, and that the consequences were not thought through well enough.

Does this then portend a geo-strategic reversal in the Middle East, as the forces gather who seek President Assad’s head?  Probably not. In an interview with Adam Shatz of the London Review of Books (LRB), Professor Joshua Landis, inter alii, touched on the bigger reason why this will not happen:

LRB: … We haven’t spoken much about the Syrian people, except to say that, increasingly, Syrians see many of their co-nationals as no longer belonging to the same community, because the cleavages along sectarian lines have become so bitter and so lethal [Shatz is referring here to the jihadists in Syria being perceived by many Syrians, as absolute, irreconcilable enemies, and as ‘foreigners’]. And so, in a sense, one great question is: Who are the Syrian people? What will their future be? Will their future even be inside Syria…?

Landis: … That’s the million-dollar question. It’s very hard to see through this ... to see into the future. You know, on the one hand, one can look at this as a major tectonic shift in identity and power in the northern Middle East, on a par to what happened in the twelfth century, when Shi’ite lords dominated much of northern Syria, and were a powerful element supported by Persia. The Mamluks, and then, following them, the Ottomans, changed that: they pushed out the Shi’ites, marginalised them – they became very impotent; and the Arab world became a Sunni world, led by the Ottoman Empire. Today, you could see something like the twelfth century coming back, with Shi’ites predominating in the north… But, you know, political power can be very enduring, if Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq all secure their alliance; and that means that Sunnis in Syria could [have to] live under this kind of a regime – a regime that’s backed by Iran – for a long time. If that happens, identities are likely to shift once again, to be plastic, and to be reworked. I don’t know how that happens, but that’s a possibility...

... the thing that frightens me, because of my seeing this as a great ‘sorting-out’, is that, if Saudi Arabia, and the US and others, continue to fund rebellion by the Sunni populations of Iraq and Syria, they’re likely to get crushed, with the present disposition of power in the Middle East …”.

McMaster is pushing for US war in Syria - Cernovich

"McMaster is plotting how to sell a massive ground war in Syria to President Trump with the help of disgraced former CIA director and convicted criminal David Petraeus, who mishandled classified information by sharing documents with his mistress.

As NSA, McMaster’s job is to synthesize intellience reports from all other agencies. President Trump is being given an inaccurate picture of the situation in Syria, as McMaster is seeking to involve the U.S. in a full scale war in Syria.

The McMaster-Petraeus plan calls for 150,000 American ground troops in Syria.

Many special operations veterans including General Joseph Votel have raised serious concerns about McMaster’s plans for Syria.

Sources also suggest that McMaster is sharing classified information with Petraeus, whose security clearance was revoked."    Cernovich

********

 "Derek Harvey, the top Middle East adviser in the NSC, has close ties with Petraeus and is close with McMaster. (Harvey reportedly faces a massive EEO complaint from subordinates, although that investigation remains open.)

Harvey and McMaster have been trying to subvert Joint Chiefs Chairman General Joseph Dunford and Secretary of Defense James Mattis. Mattis and Dunford support working with our allies in the fight against ISIS. Harvey and McMaster are advocating for a massive American-only ground force.

Two men were standing in between another U.S.-led war in the Middle East — General Mike Flynn and Steve Bannon."  Cernovich

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 Well, well.  I remember Harvey as a captain assigned to the current intelligence branch of DIA who frequented my offices in the Pentagon for no apparent reason.  His elevation to this position is somewhat unexpected.  I wonder what the EEO case is bout.  pl  

https://medium.com/@Cernovich/h-r-mcmaster-manipulating-intelligence-reports-to-trump-wants-150-000-ground-soldiers-in-syria-83346c433e99

Where Are the Heroes? by Publius Tacitus

The American media and many American political leaders, Republicans and Democrats, are a complete disgrace as they have cheered Donald Trump's illegal and unjustified order to launch cruise missiles against a backwater Syrian Air Force outpost.  The American public are being sold a profound and dangerous lie via a massive propaganda campaign that, without one shred of empirical evidence, insists that the Air Force of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dropped a chemical weapon for the express purpose of killing civilians. That did not happen. There is no intelligence supporting this claim by the Trump Administration. But it is not just Donald Trump who is lying. He is being enabled and facilitated by his National Security Advisor, H.R. McMaster, and the Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, and the Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson.

Donald Trump has now out done George W. Bush and his cast of fools, who launched an unnecessary and costly war in Iraq in March of 2003. At least Bush had enough sense to get UN and Congressional approval for his insanity. Not Trump. The simpleton simply watched Fox News and then gave the order to launch TLAMs. We did not see a single senior officer resign and speak out in protest over this fraud. They simply saluted and then carried out an unlawful order. The United States had not been attacked by Syria and was not threatening to attack us. 

When the likes of John Kerry, Hillary Clinton and John McCain think Trump is doing the right thing, you don't need any other evidence that the Trump Administration has gone off the rails. Trump persuaded many of the people that voted for him that he would not engage in the failed foreign nation building carried out by his predecessors--Bush and Obama. He has now betrayed that movement. And he is an utter fool if he thinks that this will placate the Democrats who oppose him and ease the pressure to block his agenda. 

What is really so disturbing about all of this is that the TLAM strike was meaningless and ineffective. It did not shut down the Syrian airfield. It did not destroy any significant Syrian Air assets. But it did create a real friction between the United States and Russia who, up to an hour before we launched the cruise missiles, were in regular contact to deconflict air missions that were going after terrorist targets. Let me repeat that--for at least the last 80 days, the United States and Russia military field commanders have been in regular contact, which has included exchanging intelligence and making sure that we do not fly into one another's air space.

Our unilateral action on Thursday has put that coordination in jeopardy. But that is not the only risk we are facing. If the Russians and the Syrians decide to start shooting down U.S. military and CIA drones operating over Syria there will be great political pressure to retaliate. Such an action, especially if done in the heat of the moment, carries the significant risk of escalating into a war between the United States and Russia. No one in the Trump Administration has given that scenario serious consideration. They still believe they are playing a video game.

For now, Russia and Syria appear content to continue their effort to wipe out the Islamists. As long as the United States does not interfere with that plan then the Russian and Syrian Generals appear willing to let Donald Trump enjoy his fantasy that he is being the tough guy. Let's be clear what Donald Trump is--he is an egotist of the first order. He loves being praised for being "strong and decisive." He is not ready to hear that he is a joke and that his action did not cower the the Syrians or Russians one little bit. Trump reminds me of the fat drunk sitting in a bar and indulging the Walter Mitty myth that he is a cage fighter. Rather than keep sipping his whiskey he decides to start throwing punches without first taking measure of who he is hitting. 

America is a bit of a paper tiger at the moment. Don't take my word for it. That is the message from our military leaders to Congress a few weeks back:

In testimony before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees, the vice chiefs of staff of the Army, Navy, Marines, and Air Force articulated pressing concerns about the state of their branch’s readiness to respond to conflicts overseas or attacks on the homeland.

 

The hearing highlighted substantial readiness and capacity issues within each of the services: 

• Army: Of 58 total brigade combat teams (the Army’s main combat building block), only three are considered ready for combat.
• Navy: The Navy’s fleet is the smallest it has been in nearly 100 years. This makes ship repairs harder to complete, as those vessels are needed on the waterways
• Marine Corps: Eighty percent of Marine aviation units do not have even the minimum number of aircraft they need for training and basic operations.
• Air Force: The Air Force is the smallest and, in terms of many of its aircraft, oldest it has ever been. The service had 8,600 aircraft in 1991 while today it only has 5,500, and those aircraft are an average of 27 years old. Worse, fewer than half of those aircraft are prepared to take on and defeat our adversaries. 

These troubling findings by the services echo those laid out by The Heritage Foundation in its 2017 “Index of U.S. Military Strength,” which rated the Army as “Weak” and the other three branches as “Marginal” in terms of their ability to fight and win major conflicts.

If Russia decides to call our bluff and escalate things Trump will likely preside over a public humiliation that will explode America's military delusions of grandeur.

Donald Trump was correct to criticize the stupid decision of George W. Bush to start an unnecessary war in Iraq. That ill-fated decision may have initially bought Bush some political cheering at home, but he opened a serpent's nest that unleashed the chaos that is now ruling the region. Bush's failure to secure the peace and restore a stable government cost him his legacy. Most of America does not give one rat's ass about the Middle East. Let 'em burn is the general attitude. Trump has bought the equivalent of the Brooklyn Bridge. How many days or weeks before he discovers that he bought a fraud?

 

Pence, Mattis and Kelly walk into this bar in Munich… - TTG

MUNICH (AP) — The Latest on U.S. Vice President Mike Pence’s trip to Europe (all times local): 11:20 p.m.

“Vice President Mike Pence has met with the president of Ukraine and assured him of U.S. support. Pence’s office says he “underscored U.S. support” for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and underlined that the U.S. does not recognize “Russia’s occupation and attempted annexation” of Crimea.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's office says during Saturday's meeting in Munich his country "received a powerful signal that the U.S. stands with Ukraine, that Ukraine is among the top priorities for the new U.S. administration."

President Donald Trump's stated aim of improving relations with Russia had raised concerns in Ukraine and elsewhere that he would lift sanctions imposed on Moscow for its intervention in Ukraine.”

6:05 p.m.

“Vice President Mike Pence is reaffirming the U.S. commitment to the security of the Baltic states in a meeting with the presidents of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Pence met with the leaders on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Pence’s office says the vice president noted the Trump administration’s support for the collective defense of NATO allies and the need of NATO to counter terrorism. Pence’s office says the leaders expressed their concerns over the ongoing violence in eastern Ukraine and discussed the need to make progress toward the full implementation of the Minsk agreement to resolve the conflict between government forces and Russia-backed separatists.” (Associated Press)

—————————————

“Pence's tough line on Russia, calling on Moscow to honour the international peace accords that seek to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, were welcomed by Polish Defence Minister Antoni Macierewicz. Lavrov said after a meeting with his French, German and Ukrainian counterparts that there would be a new ceasefire from Feb. 20. "Know this: the United States will continue to hold Russia accountable, even as we search for new common ground, which as you know, President Trump believes can be found," Pence said.” (Reuters)

—————————————

A truly wise-assed thought came to me as I read about these three acting as near spitting images of the emissaries of the Borg Hegemony that preceded them. It was as if they were a trio of Hedley Lamarrs to Trump’s Governor Le Petomane, running the real foreign policy while the oblivious Governor signs what’s put in front of him. Work. Work. Work. Work.

Having gotten that snark out of my system, I'm hoping Pence and the others are just trying to calm the spooked herd of Europeans before Trump can put a new saddle on them. Maybe even Trump now realizes the depth of anti-Russian hysteria here and in Europe and has decided to proceed slowly and slyly in his shock therapy for Europe and his pragmatic outreach to Russia. I'm more concerned with the stepped up aggressive rhetoric towards Iran and the continuing coddling of the Saudis. Those policies seem to enjoy widespread, unapologetic support throughout this Administration, this Congress and the American public. That's going to throw a big wrench into developing a better relationship with Russia. Lavrov appears as exasperated as I am.

Well, it's only been one month and it's been a lot more noise than action in that month. We'll see.

TTG

This may finish Bibi ...

"Reaction to the joint press conference came swift and strong from other American Jewish organizational leaders, and far less positive than the ZOA’s Klein.    “I’m not sure Trump understands the implications” of a one state solution, said Rabbi Jill Jacobs, executive director of T’ruah: the Rabbinic Call for Human Rights. “It is a very dangerous suggestion.”for Peace Now spokesman Ori Nir called the press conference “terrifying” and “a squandered opportunity” to “signal to Israelis, Palestinians, Americans and the world a clear commitment to peace.”It was a chance to “chart a constructive way forward for U.S.-Israel relations and for Israel’s future, for its security and its wellbeing as a democracy and a Jewish state,” Nir said.  Instead, “the two leaders are not only depriving Israel of the very possibility of reaching peace but also undermining Israel's own future as a democracy and a Jewish state” when they discuss a one-state possibility. He added, “they are delivering a huge victory to extremists on both sides.” The Reform Movement’s Rabbi Rick Jacobs said he views Trump’s statements as “an abdication of the longtime, bipartisan support for a two-state solution.”  Haaretz

-------------------

Well, pilgrims, I said a few days ago that it would be well to see the result of Natanyahu's visit before coming to a conclusion about what the Trump/Kushner approach to Israel/Palestine might be. 

IMO Trump is going to challenge the long treasured shibboleths of the Zionist/AIPAC community in search of a creative path to peace.

The hard core Zionists know that a one state solution would be the end of the Zionist dream of a Jewish State in historic Palestine.  If given actual equal rights of citizenship in such a country the Palestinians would fairly soon become a majority and the stronger power in a one state government.  That is simply unacceptable to the Zionists.  It would be the end of all their dreams.

Trump knows that and is evidently willing to "up the ante" to that level of leverage if Israel wants his support to get the best deal available to them, rather than the deal they wanted in which they would have completely dominate the situation.

Bibi is much threatened at home by corruption charges  (evidently the Maureen McDonnell syndrome) and challenges from his Right.  It seems that Trump went straight to his weaknesses.

It will be interesting to learn if Bibi survives his acquiescence and how much Zionist support Trump loses.  pl  

http://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-1.772061

A couple more things ...

1.  The slide  to war with Iran.  IMO we should all be aware of the ongoing push in the present NSC towards ever increasing hostility toward Iran.  the Iranians clearly have little common sense and are allowing a situation to develop in which people like Flynn and Derek Harvey are pushing the president toward actual red lines on the other side of which IMO is a shooting war with Iran involving the US Navy and USAF.  This deadly duo seems to be motivated by a desire for revenge against Iran for its support of insurgents during the US occupation of Iraq.  How mature!  Israel's as yet untested influence on President Trump and its desired application of a version of Cheney's 1% solution adds to the momentum.

2.  Natanyahu's trip to the kennel.  He will be here on the 15th.  The Israeli press is filled with pros and cons as to whether or not he will be able to bring Trump to heel.  IMO an ego as large as Trump's will not react well to the sound of its master's voice. 

3.  Niki's visit with Churkin.  She went to Vitali Churkin's home in NY City yesterday to talk things over.  A desire for cooperation was expressed thereafter.  IMO the message delivered by her was "Don't pay any attention to the hostile sounds we are making.  They are for the benefit of people like McCain and Graham.  All will be well." 

4.  President Trump wants to de-regulate banking?   I watched the old documentary (2010) "Inside Job" today.  It deals with the general criminality and neglect of duty of assorted banksters, government officials, regulators and presidents in creating the economic and financial meltdown of 2009.   The major players in that fiasco are still active and on the scene in Trump's government.  They are now older, richer and yet more cunning.  And now Trump wants to do away with parts of Dodd-Frank?  This will need watching pilgrims.  pl

Sanctuary Cities

 

I am not a lawyer but IMO the constitutional situation in the US is such that the federal government and the governments of the several states share sovereignty.  This can be clearly seen in the structure of the US Constitution and the existence of such things as separate state law codes in the states.  Municipalities in the United States have no sovereignty.  They are altogether instruments of the state governments or in the case of the District of Columbia, of the US Congress.  State laws automatically apply within the cities contained in the individual states.  In the same way the principle of the supremacy of federal law applies to the states and the cities with them.  This principle is very popular with left when they are in command of the federal government, but not so much when the right is in charge.

Therefore, IMO ,there is no basis in law for cities to defy federal immigration law.  What has emerged in this area of law is something similar to the defiance of federal law by the states with regard to marijuana.  pl

Trump and the IC "consultants."

" ... how tenable is this for Trump? How long can he go on questioning the information he receives from intelligence briefings, as he seems intent upon doing?"  Washpost

------------

Wait for it!  The answer to the question is - indefinitely.  I would think that the Trump Administration will go through the ranks of the SES/SIS position holders at CIA/DIA/NSA, etc. like a scythe.  These folks, of whom I was one (SES-4) are not career protected like the lower members of the federal civil service.  In return for their elevated rank (equivalent to military flag officers) they lack actual legal job security and can be much more easily removed.  They are usually highly politicized schemers and enablers for their presidential appointee bosses at the very top of the food chain.  But who will run things!?  Well, pilgrims there are lots of eager beaver GS-15s awaiting their turn and eager to prove their loyally to the administration.

Hey, why not ?  Payback is a bitch and people like Clapper and Brennan could not have staged this intelligence "coup" without the cooperation of the SES corps. 

And then there is the little matter of the chain of command in the federal government.  NEWS FLASH!!  The IC agencies work for the president.  He does not work for them.  If he does not accept their analysis - so be it!  They are not semi-divine creatures endowed with some special gift of understanding the world,  Well, some are, but not many. 

Any intelligence is destined to support decision making for policy.  It should NEVER be prescriptive.  The news idiots keep asking old intelligence hands what policy should be...  What a sad joke.

For Trump, the IC is just another consultant group.  pl

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/06/its-about-to-get-much-tougher-for-donald-trump-to-doubt-the-intelligence-on-russias-hacking/?utm_term=.ea982b6165da

"Zero Days"

 "Zero Days covers the phenomenon surrounding the Stuxnet computer virus and the development of the malware software known as "Olympic Games.""  wiki on the film

------------

I watched this yesterday and I urge you all to watch it.  The level of detail concerning the roles of NSA, Cyber Command, the CIA and Israeli Mossad Section 8200 is surprising.  Something that is not well understood by the public are the various roles of these groups in the covert operations world.  In this case the US military originated the idea of a cyber strike when under pressure from Israel and the Bush White House to find an alternative to air attacks on Iran.  Robert Gates when SECDEF decided that because Iran was not included in the AUMF, DoD had no legal authority to conduct an offensive cyber attack on Iran.  For that reason Gates felt that CIA with its legal authority to wage peace time war in covert actions should be the command element in attacks of the Iranian nuclear program.  As a result CIA people would stand behind the operators at NSA/Cyber Command to order each specific attack.

Fascinating.  pl 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Days

93% of Aleppo ...

 

"The Syrian army has gained control of 93% of Aleppo’s territory, with 52 neighborhoods in the eastern part of the city liberated, Head of the Main Operations Department at Russia’s General Staff, Lieutenant-General Sergei Rudskoi, said on Friday.

“The government forces and militia units continue the operation to liberate Aleppo’s eastern districts from terrorists,” he said. “After a successful offensive, 52 neighborhoods in east Aleppo have been recaptured from militants. In the past four days alone, the area held by gunmen has decreased by one-third. The Syrian army now controls 93% of the city’s territory,” he said.

These results have been achieved by the Syrian army’s ground forces. Russian and Syrian aircraft have not been used in the Aleppo area since October 18, Rudskoi stressed.

“Dozens of tonnes of humanitarian aid are delivered to liberated districts daily, the social infrastructure is being restored, and people get medical assistance,” he added.

More than 1,000 militants have voluntarily left Syria’s Aleppo and most of them have been amnestied, Rudskoy said.
“In total, 1,096 militants have left Aleppo voluntarily, 953 of them have been amnestied,” Rudskoy said.
“The Syrian government is fully meeting commitments on returning participants of illegal armed groups to peaceful life,” he added."  SF

-------------

OK.  Jihadi Aleppo is "done."  The Syrians are not (for good or ill) butchering their enemies including those civilians who supported the jihadis.

Now the Palmyra attacks must be dealt with.  If I were in charge I would send the new 5th Army Corps to deal with this. 

The main campaign should move on to Idlib Province with emphasis on killing jihadis in place and closing the Bab al Hawa crossing into Turkey. 

All Hamdu lillah!

pl

https://southfront.org/rusian-general-staff-syrian-army-control-93-aleppos-territory/

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-december-9-2016-isis-advancing-on-palmyra-amid-ceasefire-in-aleppo/

Lebanon is still a mess.

"Lebanon's lawmakers elected Michel Aoun, an lran-backed politician and former general, as president Monday, ending more than two years the country has gone without a leader.

Aoun, 81, is an ally of Hezbollah, the Shiite militia and political party backed by Iran that has helped Syrian President Bashar Assad survive a five-year civil war on Lebanon’s border.

The vote for Aoun, by 83 of parliament’s 127 members, shows Iran-backed political factions shouldered past those aligned with Saudi Arabia, replacing Syria as Lebanon’s chief foreign power broker.

Aoun’s “victory now is a victory for Hezbollah and that alliance, and certainly a kind of black eye for Saudi Arabia,” said Paul Salem, vice president for policy and research at the Middle East Institute, a think tank in Washington."  USA Today

------------

President Aoun has now stated that he will seek to align Lebanon with the policies of;  Hizbullah, Iran, the Syrian government and Russia.  This is a remarkable change of heart since he fought so long and so hard to keep the Shia in Lebanon and Iran from wielding a compelling power in Lebanon.  I hold the US and its Israeli inspiration to be largely responsible for this change of heart.

IMO the US has consistently backed the Hariris (father and son) in Lebanon in the evident belief that they were our men.  This has been a mistake.  Both Hariris have always been much closer to Saudi Arabia than to the US and Aoun sees this as a profound interference in Lebanon's affairs and her prospect for survival on Syria's doorstep.  This support dates back to the early 80s when Philip Habib, Richard Murphy and Rafik Hariri swanned around the ME together trying to arrange an end to the Lebanon civil war.  Rafik was Lebanese born but; had moved to Saudi Arabia, had made vast a amount of money in Saudi royal family sponsored government construction contracts, had become a Saudi subject (citizen), and accepted the Wahhabi version of Islam.  The airplane that the Three Amigos traveled together in from country to country was the product of Rafik's exceptionally good financial fortune in Saudi Arabia. 

After the rump Lebanese parliament accepted an armistice agreed on at Taif in Saudi Arabia largely over the heads of the Lebanese, it was decided by the Three Amigos (and those behind them)  that Rafik Hariri, a Saudi Arabian national would assume an unelected role as PM of Lebanon after being re-granted Lebanese citizenship.

Saad Hariri, Rafik's son, returned to Lebanon with his father, resumed Lebanese identity and succeeded to his father's role as instrument of Saudi and US power in Lebanese politics.   He has fulfilled that role ever since.

Now, we see that Aoun, aligned with the adversaries of Hariri's sponsors, has appointed Saad Hariri as PM and head of government in Lebanon. 

Does anyone think this is a stable arrangement?  pl  

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/10/31/lebanon-chooses-president-supported-iran-and-hezbollah/93064358/

The Borg prepares to take full power.

 

 " ... the activity reflects alarm over Trump’s calls for the United States to pull back from its traditional role as a global guarantor of security.

“The American-led international order that has been prevalent since World War II is now under threat,” said Martin Indyk, who oversees a team of top former officials from the administrations of Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton assembled by the Brookings Institution. “The question is how to restore and renovate it.” The Brookings report — a year in the making — is due out in December.

 

Taken together, the studies and reports call for more-aggressive American action to constrain Iran, rein in the chaos in the Middle East and check Russia in Europe.

The studies, which reflect Clinton’s stated views, break most forcefully with Obama on Syria. Virtually all these efforts, including a report released Wednesday by the liberal Center for American Progress, call for stepped-up military action to deter President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and Russian forces in ­Syria.

The proposed military measures include calls for safe zones to protect moderate rebels from ­Syrian and Russian forces. Most of the studies propose limited American airstrikes with cruise missiles to punish Assad if he continues to attack civilians with barrel bombs, as is happening in besieged Aleppo. Obama has staunchly resisted any military action against the Assad regime."  Greg Jaffe

------------

Yes, my fellow Canadian citizens, our time is approaching.

Brookings is hosting a gathering of the Borgist clan.  Papers are being written, tentative personnel selections made, discussion are held as to which military officers are to be retired and which advanced. 

These preparations will fit nicely into the Clinton transition team's preparations for inaugural day when Queenie will preside over an inaugural parade that should be a mighty spectacle of "stronger together."  What a sight it will be as such marching units as Stonewall Inn Memorial Drill Team and Women Veterans for Promotion Equity pass in review.

I was in the Kennedy inaugural parade.  I think this will be different.  pl   

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/washington-foreign-policy-elites-not-sorry-to-see-obama-go/2016/10/20/bd2334a2-9228-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html

The Asian Pivot - TTG

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced his "separation" from the United States on Thursday, declaring he had realigned with China as the two agreed to resolve their South China Sea dispute through talks. Duterte made his comments in Beijing, where he is visiting with at least 200 business people to pave the way for what he calls a new commercial alliance as relations with longtime ally Washington deteriorate. "In this venue, your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States," Duterte told Chinese and Philippine business people, to applause, at a forum in the Great Hall of the People attended by Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli. "Both in military, not maybe social, but economics also. America has lost."

Duterte's efforts to engage China, months after a tribunal in the Hague ruled that Beijing did not have historic rights to the South China Sea in a case brought by the previous administration in Manila, marks a reversal in foreign policy since the 71-year-old former mayor took office on June 30. His trade secretary, Ramon Lopez, said $13.5 billion in deals would be signed during the China trip. "I've realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to (President Vladimir) Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world - China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way," Duterte told his Beijing audience. (Reuters)

*******************************************

I think it’s safe to say that we have been out-pivoted in the South China Sea. Yes, we are left luffing in the breeze as Xi and Duterte sail to the East on a broad reach. We can kiss off Subic Bay for good this time. I wonder how the business community of Olangapo will adjust to the inevitable future presence of the PRC Navy?

Duterte said he will stop joint military exercises with the US. He also opposes joint patrols of the South China Sea with the US. US officials insist the current treaty alliance, dating back to the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951, remains in effect. Will the Filipino government go along with their President? How far will our government go to keep the treaty alliance and our hold on the Philippines alive?

I spent a couple of weeks in the Philippines back in 1978 during the first "Tempo Caper" joint exercise. We were based on the USS Cleveland in Subic Bay. I enjoyed it immensely, although I could have done without being knocked out of my hammock by a roaming carabao one stormy night. A year later I met my Filipino Army counterpart at my RECONDO school back in Hawaii. He greeted me like a long lost brother. I'm sure there are a lot of this kind of personal "mil to mil"relationships today. What will become of them?  

TTG 

The "White Helmets" are CIA run Obama propaganda

 

" ... behind the lofty rhetoric about solidarity and the images of heroic rescuers rushing in to save lives is an agenda that aligns closely with the forces from Riyadh to Washington clamoring for regime change. Indeed, The Syria Campaign has been pushing for a no-fly zone in Syria that would require at least “70,000 American servicemen” to enforce, according to a Pentagon assessment, along with the destruction of government infrastructure and military installations. There is no record of a no-fly zone being imposed without regime change following —which seems to be exactly what The Syria Campaign and its partners want.

“For us to control all the airspace in Syria would require us to go to war against Syria and Russia. That’s a pretty fundamental decision that certainly I’m not going to make,” said Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee this month."  Max Blumenthal

---------------

 Dunford should be careful if he wants to keep his job until retirement.  John McCain immediately and angrily denied that that a NFZ in Syria would inevitably mean war with Russia.

I agree with Dunford. 

The wall to wall R2P and Ziocon campaign to destroy the Government of Syria is in high gear.  Unfortunately for the R2Pers, Government of Israel and Ziocons the rebels are losing the war.  The Borgist press talk endlessly of air strikes in Aleppo as part of the propaganda meme, and do their best to ignore the daily disintegration of the jihadi rebels in East Aleppo. 

The SAA, Palestinian militias long resident in Syria, Hizbullah from both Lebanon and Iraq, Iranian troops and the Aleppo Kurds in the Sheikh Maqsood neighborhood are systematically disassembling the jihadi pocket in East Aleppo.

The more that progresses the more the IO war for American public acquiescence ramps up.

The "White Helmets" are reputed to be in line for a Nobel Peace Prize.  pl      

http://www.alternet.org/world/inside-shadowy-pr-firm-thats-driving-western-opinion-towards-regime-change-syria

81% 0f Americans oppose the $38 billion military gift to Israel

 

 "A solid majority of Americans would redirect $38 billion the Obama Administration pledged to Israel toward other priorities.

The Obama administration last week signed an executive agreement with Israel pledging $38 billion ($3.8 billion per year) in foreign aid for fiscal years 2019- 2028. The majority of the proposed spending is for Foreign Military Financing to provide Israel advanced and upgraded jet fighters, to continue developing Israel’s missile defense systems and to purchase other U.S. weapons. Although the White House has released a Memorandum of Understanding fact sheet, the actual MOU has not been made publicly available.

An IRmep poll fielded by Google Consumer Surveys reveals 80.8 percent of the US adult Internet user population says they would redirect the proposed spending toward other priorities. Caring for veterans (20.7 percent) was their top priority, followed by education spending (20.1 percent) and paying down the national debt (19.3 percent). Rebuilding US infrastructure was favored by 14.9 percent, while funding a Middle East peace plan received 5.8 percent of support.

Only 16.8 percent said the $38 billion of pledged foreign aid should be spent on Israel."  Grant Smith

http://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2016/09/19/81-americans-oppose-38-billion-pledge-israel/

-------------

A change of pace from the Borg Wars and the political circus.  pl

US Politics and policy and Syria

US politics.   I am more convinced than ever that HC will be president.  IMO the NY Times estimate of an 80% chance of that happening is "on the money" unless there is a much larger hidden pro-Trump, pro-Republican vote than anyone in the media believes.  I think there is such a vote but doubt that it will be big enough to carry the day for him.  The consequences of her election will be fell indeed.  IMO she will follow a reckless path toward the ideal future she desires.   I doubt that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives and their possession of many state governments will be obstacles to her desires.  The use of Executive Orders is likely to be frequent.  The police powers of the federal government will be to be heavily used.

US foreign policy.   IMO she is going to be frustrated in her desire to make all the world's children (populations and governments alike) behave as she thinks they should.  she understands very little of the nuts and bolts of military affairs and imagines that symbolic uses of military forces will result in compliance with her desired result.  This will be reflected in things like declarations of "safe zones" in hostile territory without regard to the cost in blood and treasure.

Turkey, Russia and the US.  So far, Turkey appears to be a "top"  in this three sided game of international affairs.  the Turks are not subtle. The sainted occupant of the caliphal throne in Ankara succeeded in bullying the EU into giving him six billion Golden Greckels (euros for you Germans), and now has brought Obama/Biden/Kerry  to heel in the matter of our wayward support of Syrian Kurds.  "All the world wondered."  I will not comment further on the tactical situation east of Aleppo City.  TTG does a great job on that.  But....  It does surely seem to be the case that the US is now Erdogan's bitch.

 Syria tactical.  The recent negotiated surrender of rebel forces near Damascus and the progress made in recapturing East Ghouta are very helpful to R+6.  About 3,000 soldiers will be freed up for movement north to the Aleppo City battle.  IMO unicorn/jihadi losses in the Aleppo battle have been severe and the reinforcements coming from the south will contribute to an even higher body count inflicted on the rebels.  The break in the R+6 siege lines around East Aleppo has not been useful as a supply route because it is covered by fire.  IMO that will continue to be the case and the starving will continue there.  I would wager that there are few live dogs or cats in the rebel occupied area.    Will Turkey attempt to intervene directly in the Aleppo battle?  I doubt it.

Syria diplomacy.  The Obamanite fantasists still seem to believe that the Russians can be talked into abandoning their Syrian allies.   pl

Borgist dreams of ... What, exactly?

 

1.  Joe Scarborough and his MJ crew are on a hyper-nationalist journey in which the Cold War image of the USSR continues to dominate their collective Borgasm.

2.  They fret and fret over a variety of issues such as the supposed Russian intention to invade Ukraine.   What proof there is for that escapes me but, no matter...  Why do they bother to ponder this possibility?  If it is going to happen, that will become manifest.  If it does not happen, well, it did not happen.  The only reason one would be interested in forecasting something like this would be if one contemplated a forestalling effort and I do not think that is a real option for the US and its Borgistic pals.  Mutual nuclear annihilation lurks in the background and the JCS knows that well.

3.  Donald  (the Closer) Trump and his minions are the object of intensive Borgist media efforts to portray them as agents of Vladimir the Hood (LeCarre reference).  It is now discovered that Berlusconi (the Letch) was also a servant of The Evil One brooding in his Kremlinesque castle (Lord of the Rings reference).  I actually think the Letch was interestingly human and nothing like a Borgista.  Can anyone doubt that this latest smear campaign is directed by the Obamanite information operations center  in the White House? 

3.  The Turks.  Ah yes, the Turks.  On the one hand they are going to attend cooperation meetings in Teheran with Russia and the Shia mullahcracy. On a second hand they are talking about improving relations with the Syrian government.  With yet a third hand they have in the last couple of days let 1,000 jihadi reinforcements pass through the Turkish Hatay Province border crossings for the evident purpose of reinforcing the jihadis at Aleppo where these creatures have lost a lot of men.  It would seem to me that the Russians and Iranians know about this since I do.  I think the Sublime Porte did things more skillfully than this but, what do I know? 

4.  Then there is the Aleppo battle itself.  This thing has become such a meat grinder for the jihadis that the R+6 must think it worth continuing for a while.  As someone on SST mentioned there has emerged a pattern in which Syrian forces advance into a rebel held area of the city and then withdraw to allow the jihadis to re-occupy it.  This is a great  convenience since the area you withdrew from is "target rich"  after the jihadis advance int it.  And then there are the hunting trips across Idlib Province being conducted by Russian and Syrian air.  This must be a real meat market.

Hilly is going to have a lot to deal with in her role as mother of us all.

pl

https://southfront.org/turkey-permits-1000-terrorists-to-cross-border-and-enter-in-syrias-idlib/

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-russia-iran-idUKKCN10S0V9

Strategery in East Asia and thereabouts.

Babak suggested that we should have Korea and the South China Sea included in our list of strategeral concerns.  I agree.

Korea.  This nightmare state is evidently not going to suddenly disappear.  Therefore, we must think about it.  IMO they will keep doing product improvements on their missiles and nuclear weapons until they have one that will range Japan, Guam, Oahu or some such place.  What will we do about that?  Will we wait to see if they ever decide to perform such a mad act?  The retaliation would be awesome (teen talk).  Would we then invade North Korea along with our Spam tinned meat addicted South Korean friends for the purpose of occupying the ruins?  If we did, the South Koreans could be counted on to do the occupying.  You probably not want to watch the "sausage making" process of occupation, but ... A bigger question would be - what would Big Grandma do about all this?  The neocons are not focused on this problem because it does not involve Israel so she might be without comprehensive advice on this one. 

The South China Sea (China).  The Chinese evidently want to be a maritime power and to that end have been constructing man made islands built on the "foundation" of tiny sand bars that stuck up out of that distant sea in which I used to SCUBA dive and ... other things.  The US Navy seems perpetually absorbed in Alfred Mahan's vision of a world dominated by SEAPOWER!  Mahan believed that if you control the sea you control the world.  The air power guys seem to have second thoughts about that, but, no matter ...  Mahan is the unofficial patron saint of the US Naval War College where he was a professor and wrote his earth shattering tome "The Influence of Sea Power on History."   I'm a Clausewitz man.  Mahan never seems to go away.  I have been subjected by navy people to a lot of harangues on the Soviet sea power menace in the USSR's "drive to warm water ports" in India, Pakistan, Alexandria (once upon a time) and Syria!!.   Now, the Fu Manchu menace is "crowding" the sea lanes in the South China Sea with these island bases.  After she is installed in the White House the Borg Queen will have to deal with some old sea dog channeling Bull Halsey who wants to "show'em."  How will she deal with that? 

How would Trump deal with that?  Who knows? But ...  pl

 

 

Strategery and tactickery in Eurasia

There is not enough data with which to do an adequate job of analysis on all that is occurring just now, but I think I must make a preliminary "stab" at it with the understanding that all this is subject to revision.

1.  Russia/Turkey.   "My dear friend" is what Erdogan called Putin several times yesterday, and now Erdogan has issued an "ultimatum" to the US to hand over Gulen or forget about its relationship to Turkey.  Firstly, lets get the nukes out of Incirlik.  Why tempt the sultan?  Secondly, does this mean that Turkey will abandon its support of the non-IS rebels in Syria?  My SWAG would be that it does not.  I would expect that Erdogan will try to have it both ways.  IMO he will try to surrepticiously continue to make Turkey available as strategic depth to the rebels while simultaneously trying to obtain Russian support against the emergence of anything like a Syrian statelet.  Whether or not the YPG Kurds and the SDF Arabs advance to al-Bab, heavy IS counterattacks should be expected as the occupation of Manbij threatens remaining  IS communications from Turkey to the Caliphate. 

2. Iraq.  The US/Iraqi effort on the axis Baghdad-Mosul is going to take a long time to develop.  The Iraqi Army and militia forces still have a long way to go to develop the kind of capability that the Pesh Merga and YPG Kurds already have.  A Clinton Administration advised by people like Morell and the AEI neocons would likely double-down on the Iraq effort with US ground troops to carry the offensives all the way to Raqqa and Mosul.   Would the US then let the Iraqi government run the country? IMO that is an open question.  Big Grandma (the Borg Queen) may well think that the children do not play together well enough to be left unsupervised.

3.  Afghanistan.   IS and the Taliban have made a deal to cooperate against the Kabul government.  This doesn't sound like good news.  The government is saddled with "forces of order" that are far too large and expensive for it to ever afford.  It seems to me that this makes the Afghan government something familiar to me, i.e., a regime with large, fairly clumsy forces trying to defend a number of more or less besieged localities against guerrillas who control the countryside.   All of this makes Afghanistan an unacknowledged overseas protectorate of the US.  Will Big Grandma double down there as well?

4.  Libya.  US, French and British SF are engaged on the ground in holding back the IS "hordes."  Well, smallish "Hordes," are evidently the case at present.  But ... small "hordes" may grow.  What will Big Grandma do then?

5.  Ukraine.  I don't know.  Someone please tell me.

6.  Syria.  My SWAG is that R+6 will be able to seal off the penetration in SW Aleppo and re-isolate East Aleppo.   The jihadi friendly media are doing their best to depict the jihadi rebels and their supporters in the pocket as something like Robin Hood and his archers or maybe the Cisco Kid fighting off the forces of Spanish oppression.  That doesn't work very well.   Jihadis are, well, jihadis, but the process of myth building will probably make them heroic figures just as the Argentinian adventurer, Che Guevara has become a tee-shirt theme.  If the Turks do not provide enough support across the Hatay border crossings, the rebel losses at Aleppo and along the dusty, air stricken roads in Idlib will have greatly weakened the rebels.  We will then see if R+6 has enough strength and energy to launch an offensive into Idlib.  If not, then the Russians and Iranians will have to re-think their deployed strength levels in Syria.  pl

Interesting material from "Conflicts Forum"

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Comments on the battle for Aleppo Elijah Magnier 

(Posted on Twitter end July/early August)

https://twitter.com/ejmAlrai/ 

There are 11 Jihadists and 11 non-Jihadists groups, all together in this Aleppo battle, working together and fighting side by side.

#ISIS is d weakest force n #Syria, easy 2overcome. Nusra, foreign fighters & Jihadists, enjoying "western blessing" r much stronger

Previous information confirmed Jabhat al-Nusra (JFS) is holding bodies of #Russia officers & pilots & that Ahrar al-Sham was the negotiator

"Public institution 4prisoners" is asking: 1. "liberation of all prisoners held by regime & Hezbollah" 2. "Lifting of siege on all cities".

Rebels gathered mltnts from different frnts 4Aleppo. If this fail, it will be a hard hit 4long,w/ blame 2each other

All ground troops are under Iran command. Russia coordinates with Iran ( country) not with groups.

Although Nusra & rebels maintain media black out, their attack on #Aleppo Ramous and Mansoura failed to achieve the desired objective.

4000 Nujaba', 4000 Fatimiyoun & #Hezbollah in #Aleppo to face Nusra, Jihadists & rebels.

Fatimiyoun are badly trained, unprepared: Iran unwilling to inject adequate forces

Russia is aggressively refreshing Syria army armament (that is new info)

If Iran injects more troops, regional countries will behave differently with rebels

Russian AF is active daily but rebels, including Nusra, injected large number of militants. No 2be underestimated

It was only due to Russia air support that SAA and allies managed to circle Aleppo+

Russia gave up on advertising strikes but these are tens every single day non stop

Russia was complaining about lack of enough Iranian forces on the ground. Nobody can win by AF only

Russia no longer believe in #USA will of cease-fire or peace process. Aleppo is important 4 everybody

No Iranian regular troops, just usual advisors. Iran allies r deployed own this front (Aleppo). Russia wants Aleppo more than Iran

#Russia is planning to increase its Air Force in #Syria. The battle of #Aleppo seems a Russian battle.

Elijah Magnier is a leading Arab war correspondent writing for the Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Rai. 

Is Russia our enemy?

The Democratic Party convention and the media are full of the assumption that Russia is the enemy of the United States.  What is the basis for that assumption?

• Russian support for the Russian ethnic minority in eastern Ukraine?  How does that threaten the United States?
• Russian annexation of the Crimea?  Khrushchev arbitrarily transferred that part of Russia to Ukraine during his time as head of the USSR.  Khrushchev was a Ukrainian.  Russia never accepted the arbitrary  transfer of a territory that had been theirs since the 18th Century.  How does this annexation threaten the United States?
• Russia does not want to see Syria crushed by the jihadis and acts accordingly?  How does that threaten the United States?
• Russia threatens the NATO states in eastern Europe?  Tell me how they actually do that.  Is it by stationing their forces on their side of the border with these countries?  Have the Russians made threatening statements about the NATO states?
• Russia has made threatening and hostile statements directed at the United States?  When and where was that?
• Russia does not accept the principle of state sovereignty?  Really?  The United States is on shaky ground citing that principle.  Remember Iraq?
• Russian intelligence may have intercepted and collected the DNC's communications (hacked) as well as HC's stash of illegal e-mails?  Possibly true but every country on earth that has the capability does the same kind of thing every single day.  That would include the United States.

The Obama Administration is apparently committed to a pre-emptive assertion that Russia is a world class committed enemy of the United States.  The Borgist media fully support that.

We should all sober up.  pl

Trump is a nationalist, not an internationalist.

 

"What Trump Said: He explicitly raised new questions about his commitment to automatically defend NATO allies if they are attacked, saying he would first look at their contributions to the alliance, the Times reported.

What Elites Think: What a disaster! Does Trump not know that 20th-century alliances have prevented a third World War? Russia would take advantage of a weakened NATO to expand its control. President Trump would make the nation weaker, less relevant, and more exposed to threats abroad.

What Populists Think: If these countries want our help, they’ve got to pay their bills. We’re not asking for the world—only what they promised to pay under a treaty that obliges the United States to defend them. Fair is fair. What makes us weak is defending and extending one-way alliances. As for the post-World War II order that Trump threatens to upend, this is now a post-9/11 world; it can’t hurt to pressure-test the old institutions."  Fournier in The Atlantic

--------------

Trump thinks all deals are subject to re-negotiation.   Treaties are deals.  These deals are ratified by the US Senate.  In Trumps mind we have the US Senate as the equivalent of a stockholder's meeting.  Therefore, he thinks, treaty deals are subject to re-negotiation.  This is a typical entrepreneurial business attitude. 

Is there some reason why we should think that treaties are not re-negotiable? In fact the French withdrew their forces from the control of Allied Command Europe (ACE) while not leaving the alliance.  Was this not a de facto re-negotiation of the treaty?

Borgists like Ron Fournier automatically shrink from Trump's desire to return America to an attitude regarding "foreign entanglements" that prevailed before WW2.  This was an attitude that strictly put narrowly defined US interests first and regarded all else as "to be determined."  Trump does not accept the internationalist view that the world is one and that the US should be its guardian.  This spirit of guardianship seem to me to originate in the notion that the rest of the world is a very imperfect place that the God of the New England Puritans gave unto the protection and regulation of the "city on the hill."  This is amusing since so many of the Borgians are now godless heathen.

I watched again the recent re-make of "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy."  This is the version in which the splendid actor Gary Oldman plays George Smiley.  In the film, the Circus holds a Christmas party sometime at the height of the Cold War.  In the midst of the sad revelry, Father Christmas enters stage right with his bag of goodies and wearing a Joe Stalin mask.  the crowd stands and he leads the British spooks in a spirited rendition of the Soviet national anthem.  I saw much the same thing happen after the fall of the USSR when American military spooks specialized in the USSR sang "I'm dreaming of a red Christmas, just like the ones I used to know."  They knew their rice bowl was broken and they would all be fired or repurposed soon.  The same was true of Iran specialists at the State Department after the Shah was gone. 

Pitt the Younger said that the map of Europe should be rolled up for twenty years when Bonaparte's power was at its zenith.  For the Borg (foreign policy establishment) world-wide, Trump World would be the end of them as a cadre.  Cui bono?  pl 

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/how-will-trumps-supporters-understand-his-foreign-policy-interview/492386/

51 neocons at State want another Iraq

 "More than 50 State Department officials signed an internal memo protesting U.S. policy in Syria, calling for targeted U.S. military strikes against the regime of Bashar al-Assad and urging regime change as the only way to defeat ISIS.

The cable says that U.S. policy in the Middle East has been "overwhelmed" by the continuing violence in Syria. It calls for a "judicious use of stand-off and air weapons, which would undergird and drive a more focused and hard-nosed U.S.-led diplomatic process."

 

CNN reviewed a draft of the memo, which has since been classified. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the memo's existence"  CNN

 

-------------

 

Well, well.  These people have no idea what they are talking about.

 

1.  These are mostly Foreign Service Officers, chosen for a career in diplomacy by a written examination and an interview process that insures mirror imaging in educational background (mostly Ivy, Stanford or the like) and ideological coherence as a group.   the selection process is also very heavily burdened by a search for "diversity."  This is the very center of the Poly Sci/ IR  crowd.  Career Foreign Service Officers usually have no military background.  Neither do they generally have an interest in learning anything about a profession that they regard as "fun for the feeble minded."  Their attitude about military officers is that if you were smart like us FSOs you would be one of us.  It is an awkward thing for them that career military officers who reach the field grade ranks are generally possessed of more advanced degrees than the FSOs.

 

2.  The fabulous 51 are frustrated IMO by the unwillingness of the Syrian government to roll over and die to clear the way for what they think would appear to replace it.  They imagine this would be a coalition of the existing government (minus Assad and his associates) and its forces plus the FSA plus all the AQ related jihadi groups (Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, etc.) and that this coalition would destroy IS in Syria and then create a multi-confessional representative democracy.

 

3.  IMO all of this is a delusion.  IMO what would occur is that the Syrian government would not survive decapitation and would collapse as did the Iraqi government after we defeated their forces in our invasion.  People forget now that the Iraqi government had completely collapsed BEFORE the neocon faction in the GW Bush administration decreed a total abolition of that government and army.  At the very time that Bremer surrendered the process of debaathification to Ahmad Chalabi (an Iranian agent), the US ground combat commanders in Iraq at division level were engaged in trying to re-constitute parts of the Iraqi forces, government and police to help them re-establish order.  In a dramatic meeting Bremer told these generals that they would immediately cease and desist because the "day of the Sunnis has ended."  This statement of course ignored the many, many Shia Arabs employed by the Iraqi government in responsible jobs but the statement ably supported the neocon policy of enabling anti-Sunni groups across the region, whether they were religiously opposed or merely deracinated in the acculturation process fostered by institutions like the American University in Cairo.

 

I suppose we will now see how Obama reacts to this memo.  pl 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/16/politics/state-department-syria/

Thoughts on Syria - 7 June, 2016

 

1.  Unless the US JCS are once again "off the reservation" and talking to the Russians behind the backs of the Obamanites, I don't think there is much effective coordination between the US and Russia over Syria other than the flight de-confliction regime.

2.  The flight de-confliction regime works well.  We haven't shot each other down yet, so ...  We now have the USS Harry Truman battle group standing inshore off Syria to launch attacks in Syria and Iraq.  This very likely requires passage through Russian controlled airspace within their air defense umbrella.  So ...

3.  Raqqa will be heavily defended.  IS cannot afford to give the place up.  there are probably quite a few Arab Sunni "civilians" there who support IS.  That has proven to be true at Fallujah.  As the R+6 force proceeds after the taking of Tabqa air base, resistance will get stiffer and stiffer.  We will see how well they do against that.  We will also see if the SDF really wants to sacrifice a great deal to capture this large city.  Their American "minders" are urging them forward, but, we will see ...

4.  The Russians evidently thought they could make an honest deal with Kerry/Obama.  Well, they were wrong.  The US supported jihadis associated with Nusra (several groups) merely "pocketed" the truce as an opportunity to re-fit, re-supply and re-position forces.  The US must have been complicit in this ruse.  Perhaps the Russians have learned from this experience.

5.  In the "truce" the Turks, presumably with the agreement of the US, brought 6,000 men north out of the non-IS jihadi defended area along the Turkish border.  This is the area around Azaz and to the east.  They trucked them around and brought them through Hatay Province in Turkey to be sent back into the Aleppo Province and to the city of Aleppo itself.  These men have been used in capturing Khan Touman SW of the city and in driving the YPG Kurds out of the part of the city that they held.  It will cost a lot of men to restore these situations.  Someone said to me that the border crossings from Hatay are under surveillance.   Well, so what!  That does not prevent the Turks supplying the jihadis through these crossing points.

6.  The same someone said that the result of the "cease-fire" positions Putin well in peace negotiations.  Yawn!  As I have said repeatedly, most sensible people know that you have to win on the battlefield unless you are Kerry and the girls at the WH.  There will now be more blood rather than less because of the Kerry/Obama attempt at cleverness.

7.  In a wonderfully clear proof of an absence of coordination between IS and the AQ linked groups (Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, etc.) IS launched a major offensive into the area from which the Turks removed the 6,000 men now in the Aleppo area.  IS has now taken most of that area and are nearly at the gates of the town of Azaz. 

Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you.  pl

The Mexican "Race?"

What "race" is that?  Mexicans are a nationality, not a race.  Judge Gonzalo Curiel looks as white as I, and that is quite white.  What really is going on is that the Borgist media has sought continuously to destroy Trump, first by scorn and then by searching with a microscope for some meme that can be developed into public hysteria with which to accomplish their goal of destroying Trump and electing Clinton.

He is, IMO a business buffoon who has no idea what to say and what not.  That does not lessen the guilt of the media in destroying and manipulating the political process in pursuit of their own agenda.

He apparently insists on bringing the rope to his own media lynching.  "Lynching" is not PC?  Well, you know what you can do with that. 

BTW, SWMBO and I have been sending Sanders money every month and more than $27.  the donation we made today divided the money between Sanders and Major (Rep.) Tulsi Gabbard. 

I will write in Sanders name in November.  pl

The Geopolitics Of the Battle of the Military Budget

   

         Several months ago, Col. Lang introduced me to this esteemed group as “a grand  military analyst” who would be posting regularly on SST. Perhaps it was because of discomfort with that description of myself that I did not follow up after a couple of initial posts but, today, I have returned at the explicit invitation of the Colonel, who said of the following report: “IMO the brass is manipulating the threat scene to grow threats that will support bigger budgets.”  -- Willy B

            The Army has long had an identity crisis, going back to at least Rumsfeld's "transformation" effort, followed by the retooling of the Army for long term occupation and counter-insurgency, to now being called on to confront Russia. Underlying all of this, actually, is the insanity of the geopolitical outlook that dominates national security making in Washington, which is causing turmoil within all of the services, but which they all seem to be incapable of recognizing. In an article in Politico posted on Friday, Mark Perry recalls the April 5 testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee of a panel of Army officers led by LTG HR McMaster, widely considered to be the smartest man in the Army, in which they claimed that the Army is now  in danger of being "outranged and outgunned" in the next war (which could only be against Russia and/or China) and that the Army is in danger of becoming " too small to secure the nation." While the testimony seems to have been a consensus document among senior Army officers, not everybody, as Perry writes, was buying it. "This is the 'Chicken-Little, sky-is-falling' set in the Army," a senior Pentagon officer told him. "These guys want us to believe the Russians are 10 feet tall. There's a simpler explanation: The Army is looking for a purpose, and a bigger chunk of the budget. And the best way to get that is to paint the Russians as being able to land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time [this is a reference to Grant's rejecting of advice to move his headquarters during the Battle of the Wilderness in 1864, with which Perry opens his article]. What a crock."

            McMaster was reportedly behind a study, also reported in Politico two days after the testimony, that reported that the Russian-backed rebel army in Ukraine has been using "surprisingly lethal tanks" and artillery as well as "swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles" to run roughshod over Ukrainian nationalists, which, like the testimony, has also been ridiculed, not only be senior retired Army officers that Perry but also by the Air Force, in particular, retired LTG David Deptula, long an outspoken advocate for air power, who criticized McMaster for promoting a single service view of future warfare. McMaster's critics also point to the numbers when comparing the US and Russian militaries, both in terms of budgets and hardware. How can anyone think, therefore, that the Russia is about to overrun the US Army?

            Perry portrays Gen. Mark Milley, the chief of staff of the Army, who is currently touring Africa in an effort to organize anti-terrorism cooperation,  as ambivalent about the McMaster testimony, but he told the New York Times that the question in the Army is whether the new focus on the ever-widening terrorist threat in Africa — not to mention the focus on the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and the continuing war in Afghanistan — is taking away from the Army's ability to fight a land war against a more traditional military adversary. "Today, a major in the Army knows nothing but fighting terrorists and guerrillas, because he came into the Army after 9/11," General Milley said in an interview during his flight to Arusha. "But as we get into the higher-end threats, our skills have atrophied over 15 years." A result, General Milley said, has been a loss of what he calls muscle memory: how to fight a large land war, including one where an established adversary is able to bring sophisticated air defenses, tanks, infantry, naval power and even cyberweapons into battle. The Times reports that Army officials are trying to balance the military's responsibilities in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia while relearning how to fight higher-end, great-power conflicts, as well.

            But Perry doesn't restrict his fire only to the Army. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, the just retired commander of NATO also comes in for criticism. Six weeks ago, in early March, Breedlove told a group of Washington reporters that Russia had "upped the ante" in Ukraine with "well over a thousand combat vehicles, Russian combat forces, some of their most sophisticated air defense [units and] battalions of artillery." The situation, Breedlove said, "is not getting better. It is getting worse every day." A senior civilian advisor at the Pentagon told Perry that Breedlove's report simply wasn't true. Justin Raimondo, writing in antiwar.com, notes that Breedlove was probably getting his intelligence from the Kiev regime itself, "and they are notoriously unreliable: these are the same people who have been citing 'evidence' of a full-scale Russian invasion for years now" in an effort to get both economic aid and offensive weapons.

            Besides Deptula, Perry also cites a couple of famous Army dissidents, both retired, LTC Daniel Davis and Col. Douglas Macgregor, blasting the McMaster testimony. His best quote comes from that unnamed Pentagon officer, though. "You know, which would you rather have—a high-speed rail system, or another brigade in Poland? Because that's what this is really all about. The debate is about money, and there simply isn't enough to go around," the Pentagon officer told him. "Which is not to mention the other question, which is even more important: How many British soldiers do you think want to die for Estonia? And if they don't want to, why should we?"

            All of this is a manifestation of the underlying problem, which is the US commitment, particularly under the current and previous president, to the British/neocon  geopolitically driven idea that we must run the world, as stated by Dick Cheney in that infamous 1992 defense planning guidance document. The Russians aren't committed to such an idea for themselves. They're building a military appropriate for their needs and Putin has proven to be a master of how to employ it, generating very efficient results, while we are spreading chaos around the globe.

            Coming from the geopolitical side is Seth Cropsey of the Hudson Institute, who complains that the White House has adopted Alfred E. Neuman's outlook to foreign policy: "What, me worry?" In Cropsey's view, there's plenty to worry about, and it's the Chinese, the Russians and the Iranians. "As Russia, China, and Iran's militaries expand, the Obama Administration is cutting the American defense budget—depleting not only the U.S. military's fleet of ships and planes, but also the precisions weapons and missiles they carry— making it more difficult for the U.S. to provide for the common defense, deter adversaries and honor commitments to allies," Cropsey writes. As Perry points out at the conclusion of his report, this is political fodder for Obama's critics in Congress who complain that Obama isn’t taking us to war fast enough. Cropsey zeros in on what he says is a $189 million shortfall in Obama's budget for SM-3 interceptor missiles that are used in the Navy's Aegis combat system, including the Aegis Ashore installation just turned on in Romania. The $189 million would buy 19 missiles, not cheap at $11 million a pop but, in Cropsey’s view, affordable compared to a single F-35. Whatever the reason for the shortfall "it's an example, writ small, of the current administration's dim view of the importance of strong U.S. defenses," Cropsey writes.

            Another example of this paranoid nonsense comes from Matthew Costlow of the National Institute for Public Policy, who claims that only Russia is running a nuclear arms race and they are way ahead. He even goes so far as to imply that Russia may violate the New START treaty as it already (allegedly) has violated the INF Treaty. Therefore, "Instead of taking seriously the demonstrably false claims of a U.S.-instigated nuclear arms race, the United States should instead be focused on modernizing its nuclear forces to deter threats that are all too real, including Russia and China."

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/army-internal-fight-russia-defense-budget-213885

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/16/world/africa/army-milley-africa-terrorism-land-war.html?ref=world

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2016/05/15/civil-war-inside-us-military/

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/05/12/the_alfred_e_neuman_defense_policy_109355.html

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/washingtons-imaginary-nuclear-arms-race-16190

IMO, there are not enough troops...

"The Syrian Arab Army’s 525th Regiment of the 18th Tank Division was under heavy attack near the T-4 Airport; this prompted a direct military intervention from their Russian advisers. In just two days, the Russian Marines helped the Syrian Armed Forces recapture the initiative in east Homs, while also recovering several points near the Al-Sha’ar Gas Fields and T-4 Military Airport. Now, with the Syrian Arab Army’s “Tiger Forces” pushing south towards the Al-Sha’ar Gas Fields, the Russian Marines can go back to their original role, which includes advising the Syrian Armed Forces."  AMN

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-marines-participate-east-homs-battle/ | Al-Masdar News

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syria-situation-report-may-7-13-2016

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I have understood that Russian marines were in Syria to secure their air base complex and naval facilities at Latakia and Tartus as well as to do some line troop re-training.  Now we see them committed to actual front line combat.

IMO this backs up my contention that the R+6 alliance in Syria lacks enough quality ground combat units to accomplish their many obvious objectives in population and geographical control of Syria's territory and resources.   

It is easy to list the SAG's primary and current operational and strategic needs:

• The portion of Aleppo City still under insurgent control must be re-occupied.  The political effect of this success would greatly improve the over-all position of the SAG especially at Geneva.  The world has awaited a serious effort to make this happen.  Perhaps it will occur, but not yet.
• Idlib Province needs to be re-occupied.  If that occurred communications and trade would be freed between Aleppo City and both Latakia Province and Damascus to the south.  A lack of progress in doing this and the reverses and lack of progress suffered by R+6 at places like Tel Issa and Khan Touman are indicative of an insufficiency of strength on the ground.
• The continued existence of the large insurgent pocket around Rastan between Homs and Hama astride the main north-south highway is a major embarrassment for the integrity of the Syrian state.  It does not seem that much is being done about this.
• LOCs all over the eastern parts of Syria on the roads to Aleppo and Palmyra are continuously threatened by insurgent forces operating in what are really open, treeless, barren deserts.  This indicates a continuing SAG inability to field enough forces to conduct patrol and local quick reaction forces to push the insurgents back from the roads.  Please don't tell me that TE Lawrence did the same thing along the line of the Hijaz Railroad.  Yes, he did and he was able to do that because the Turks were not strong enough in troops in the Hijaz to outpost and patrol the railroad line adequately.
• In East Ghouta just beyond the eastern boundaries of Damascus, the SAA and other R+6 forces seem unable to muster sufficient force to clear what amounts to a surrounded and nearly isolated inferior force.
• The need to advance from Palmyra to Deir Az-Zour  and then to Raqqa is clear but there is not a lot of progress in doing that.
• From Damascus south to the Jordanian border the real action seems to be the struggle for control between IS on the one hand and non IS insurgent forces on the other with the SAA largely in a spectator status.

All of that indicates to me that there just are not enough ground troops in R+6 to sustain the stated goal of the SAG to re-conquer the country.  Why is that?  Syria is a substantial country and many, many of its citizens loath and fear the prospect of living and dying under jihadi rule.  Nevertheless, millions have fled to:  Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Europe and Canada.  Among these migrants are hundreds of thousands of men of military age (of all confessions) who have chosen to abandon their country to its fate. 

The bi-polar policy of the US with regard to Syria contributes to this flight in that it both encourages resistance to the Syrian Government and also encourages the belief that the collapse of IS is inevitable and therefore personal self sacrifice would be foolish. 

Russia, Hizbullah and Iran must be considering the inevitability of a negotiated peace that will destroy the Syrian state if the present correlation of forces continues.  That inevitability is certainly the main objective of the neocons and R2P.  pl

Obama and Rhodes are anti-Borg (Blob)? Who knew?

 

"The profile of one Ben Rhodes running in Sunday’s New York Times Magazine is not unsympathetic, which makes it all the more devastating.

Perhaps the key sentence is this: “His lack of conventional real-world experience of the kind that normally precedes responsibility for the fate of nations — like military or diplomatic service, or even a master’s degree in international relations, rather than creative writing — is still startling.”"  Hicks 

"Rhodes and others around Obama keep on talking about doing all this novel thinking, playing from a new playbook, bucking the establishment thinking. But if that is the case, why have they given so much foreign policy power to two career hacks who never have had an original thought? I mean, of course, Joe Biden and John Kerry. I guess the answer can only be that those two are puppets, and (as in Biden’s case) are given losing propositions like Iraq to handle.

Fact check: Obama’s hasn’t been an original foreign policy as much as it has been a politicized foreign policy. And this Rhodes guy reminds me of the Kennedy smart guys who helped get us into the Vietnam War. Does he know how awful he sounds? Kind of like McGeorge Bundy meets Lee Atwater."  Ricks

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I had a conversation with an old, old college friend a few days ago in which he more or less asserted that there is really no place in the MODERN WORLD for English majors.  He did qualify that by assuring me that for someone as wonderful as I there would always be a place, somewhere.

Well, pilgrims, on 9/11 this Rhodes fellow was a graduate student in creative writing who hoped someday to be a novelist.  Somehow he conceived the idea of writing about international relations.  A few years later he had become Obama's soul mate and alter ego in the foreign policy world.  Say what?  How could that be?  I don't know but it clearly happened and the juxtaposition of the Obama/Rhodes deadly duo operating within the boundaries of Borgist (Blobist) Washington and New York City explains a lot.  Do they really see "hacks" like Biden and Kerry as tools for their scheming?  Do they feel much the same way about the R2P ladies (of both genders)?

What emerges from the NY Times piece and Ricks' savage critique of Rhodes and by implication Obama is a picture of two "artists" who believe that they can re-write the narrative  of America and therefore of the world and that their fictional narrative will become reality.  No wonder things are so f----d up.  pl  

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/06/a-stunning-profile-of-ben-rhodes-the-asshole-who-is-the-presidents-foreign-policy-guru/

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/magazine/the-aspiring-novelist-who-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fmagazine&action=click&contentCollection=magazine&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

Is "Plan B" a Ketchup embargo for Syria?

 

"Kerry said that without a ceasefire in Aleppo, Syria's largest city before the civil war erupted in 2011, the violence there was in danger of spiraling out of control. The plan now being worked on to ensure a more lasting ceasefire would try to separate rival forces from militias, which are not covered by the ceasefire.

"The line they are trying to draw now would prohibit any kind of incursion of Aleppo, it will not allow Aleppo to fall," Kerry said. He added that the truce was holding in areas of Damascus and Latakia region where he said there had been a "meaningful" drop in violence.

Kerry said the United States was trying to determine which opposition group was responsible for a rocket attack on a hospital in Aleppo on Tuesday, saying there was no justification for such "horrific violence."

He repeated the United States would never accept a transition that included Assad.

"If Assad's strategy is to somehow think he's going to just carve out Aleppo and carve out a section of the country, I got news for you and for him - this war doesn't end,""  Kerry said.  NY Times

-----------------

 

Kerry was at the White House correspondents  dinner and then went to the airport to leave for this meeting in Europe.  Maybe he was suffering from sleep deprivation and jet lag at the presser.  How else can you account for the idiocy of the statements repeated in this NY Times article?  I have written here several times that to think one can gain at the negotiating table through BS and trickery what one has not been able to secure on the battlefield is a vapid, vain notion.  I continue to think that true.

The US is threatening Assad, Russia and Iran with dire consequences if Assad does not agree to abandon Syria by 1 August?  What possible leverage does Kerry think the US has with which to back up that threat?   "Carpet bombing" of Syrian government facilities and forces?   A massive Turkish Army invasion of the North of Syria?  A Gulfie invasion of Southern Syria?  Poisoned cigars as a present for Assad?  More and heavier weapons delivered to the Unicorn army of the FSA?  (an indirect delivery to the jihadis) A US expeditionary force? 

No?  What then?  Ah!  Perhaps Kerry will persuade his consort Teresa to embargo Syria.  No more Ketchup for Assad!  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2016/05/03/world/europe/03reuters-mideast-crisis-syria-kerry.html?_r=0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketchup

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinz

Bacevich on force levels and policy.

 

"To fulfill its self-imposed obligations as sole superpower, the United States would need a citizenry that subscribes to the cwarrior-patriot’s code: Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori. How sweet and fitting it is to die for one’s country. Most Americans are far more likely to subscribe to the code vividly displayed each weekend in Style sections of newspapers. There, the appeal of dying for one’s country takes a backseat to the latest tips on relationships, restaurants, recipes, street wear, household furnishings, and places to be seen.

Between what our duties as a self-proclaimed indispensable nation ostensibly require and what our freewheeling culture encourages, there exists a contradiction. In the White House, the Pentagon, and the Congress, the stewards of U.S. national security policy assume they can manage that contradiction. Yet day-by-day, evidence suggesting otherwise piles up."  Dallas news.

----------------

Colonel (Ret.) Doctor Bacevich believes that the numbers recruitable for the US armed forces on a voluntary basis are not large enough to sustain a foreign policy as aggressive as ours.

He and I fought in Vietnam.  We had over 500,000 troops there in 1968 just before Nixon's phased withdrawal began.  There were also several hundred thousand anticommunist native troops.  South Vietnam and the adjoining countries were very large.  The numbers available to us were, IMO, marginal in the task of trying to defend the country against the Viet Cong/NVA.

If that is so, then how ridiculous was the attempt to occupy and pacify Iraq and/or Afghanistan with what amounted to a relative handful of men.  It was obvious from the beginning that the numbers available were too small.  The voodoo semi-religion of COIN was used to inflict the delusion of sufficiency of forces on the armed forces of the US.  This doctrinal fantasy was spread by people like McMaster, Nagl, Kilcullen and a cluster of other "children" who professed to have learned  in libraries that VN was lost to the communists because the US blundered around in the jungles and rice paddies throughout the war trying to re-fight the Battle of the Bulge or the Okinawa campaign.  In fact the US sought assiduously to apply the COIN folly to VN throughout the war, and did it with resources that were vastly greater than any available in the GWOT.  I was there and worked with the CORDS/COIN apparat.  So, I guess I probably know what I am talking about.

Colonel Bacevich does not seem very specific about the solution to the question that he poses. 

It seems clear to me that the draft will not return.  Bacevich says that as well.  He and I agree that American culture is now so sybaritic and self-obsessed that it is unlikely that the force necessary to pursue our self-assigned mission of world "purification" can be created and maintained.

As a rationalist I feel it necessary to say that the "reach" of US foreign policy has, since 9/11, exceeded its "grasp."  We should give up our R2P dreams and define US security interest as being the defense of the homeland.  If we do that then the numbers available and our policy would begin to match.  pl  

http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/latest-columns/20160418-andrew-bacevich-why-americas-all-volunteer-force-fails-to-win-wars.ece

"Iraq Government Collapse Likely..." ISW

"Iraq Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi faces new calls for his resignation as a rump parliament of roughly 131 members, falsely claiming a quorum, has begun to ouster its sitting leaders. The rump Council of Representatives (CoR) barricaded itself in the Parliament building after an overnight sit in on April 13 to 14. The parliamentary remnant illegally convened a session, voted amongst itself to dismiss CoR Speaker Salim al-Juburi, and elected a new provisional speaker. Party discipline and cohesion is devolving, though the Kurdistan Alliance, ISCI, and Badr Organization – each of which has received benefits in the evolving cabinet reshuffle – appear to have retained control of their members. Senior political leaders are meeting. Longtime allies Ammar al-Hakim and Jalal Talabani met in Suleimaniyah on April 13, presumably to discuss ISCI cooperation with the Kurdish Alliance, while rumors state that Muqtada Sadr is in Lebanon, as is Jawad al-Sharistani, the son-in-law and representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Although these leaders may be trying to stave off government collapse, they may not be able to overcome the parliamentary entropy. Street protests have reignited in advance of Friday prayers. Parliamentary means, protests, or force may topple the current government."    ISW

--------------------

 I just checked the political news from Baghdad.  This mess has not improved in the last couple of days.  As H. Rap Brown would have "sayed" in the sixties, "the chickens has come home to roost." 

In 2015 I compared the effects of Borgist R2P/Ziocon/neoliberal actions to the ancient Hindu notion of Shiva, Lord of Destruction.  The link is below.

The combination of US and other forces that destroyed Iraq's social order and government created a kind of atomism in a society that had many disparate and mutually exclusive factions, tribes, sects, etc.  The Borgist collective believed that these groups could be united in an election driven process in which an enthusiasm for purple thumbs would overcome personal and factional interest.  The post colonial construct called "Iraq" had been held together since its creation by force and coercion while it festered or fermented (take your pick) in its progress of evolving towards something like internal coherence.  We destroyed that and believed that the artificialities of western political institutions could reconcile the mutually hostile elements.  Babak observed here that such post-colonial countries eventually shed their Western accretions and are revealed once again in the guise of the beast within.  He is correct.

Well, pilgrims, if Iraq's "government" founders the US/Obamanite position in Iraq will crash to the ground with it.  pl 

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iraq-government-collapse-likely-rump-parliament-calls-resignations

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/03/the-us-as-shiva-lord-of-destruction-and-renewal.html

Fidel does not love us!

 

"Fidel Castro responded Monday to President Barack Obama's historic trip to Cuba with a long, bristling letter recounting the history of U.S. aggression against Cuba, writing that "we don't need the empire to give us any presents."

The 1,500-word letter in state media titled "Brother Obama" was Castro's first response to the president's three-day visit last week, in which the American president said he had come to bury the two countries' history of Cold War hostility. Obama did not meet with the 89-year-old Fidel Castro on the trip but met several times with his 84-year-old brother Raul Castro, the current Cuban president.

Obama's visit was intended to build irreversible momentum behind his opening with Cuba and to convince the Cuban people and the Cuban government that a half-century of U.S. attempts to overthrow the Communist government had ended, allowing Cuban to reform its economy and political system without the threat of U.S. interference."  CBSnews

----------------

Well, well, not everyone in Cuba likes Obama or the US.  Perhaps they should stew in their own broth for another fifty years.  pl 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/fidel-castro-cuba-doesnt-want-presents-from-u-s-empire/

The US has become a "muffled zone."

"Syrian government forces recaptured a Mamluk-era citadel in Palmyra from the extremist Islamic State group on Friday, Syrian state media and monitoring groups said, as the fierce battle for control of the historic town entered its third day.

Syrian and Russian warplanes struck at least 56 targets inside IS-held areas of the city and pro-government militias supported the army’s advance, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group.

Palmyra has been controlled by the extremist group since May. The militants have destroyed some of its best known Roman-era archaeological relics.

Government forces Friday cut the road between Palmyra and another IS bastion, the town of Qaryatayn, weakening the group’s hold over its two central Syrian outposts, according to the pro-government Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV."  Washpost

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/fighting-against-is-rages-in-central-syrian-town-of-palmyra/2016/03/25/446a01ec-f26b-11e5-a2a3-d4e9697917d1_story.html

------------------

I searched about in the US media today looking for coverage of the fight now raging in eastern Syria for the towns of Palmyra (Tadmur) and Deir az-Zor and all I could find is this AP article in the Washington Post.  In that fight Russian air power and the weapons and advice that Russia provides continues to play a major and probably decisive role.

Earlier today I listened to Colonel (Ret.) Jack Jacobs MOH tell the world on MSNBC that the Russian intervention in Syria had been altogether useless, solely designed to "prop up"  the Syrian government, had done nothing against IS and that the provision of Russian support against the rebels and IS had ended with no result.   Well, pilgrims, Jacobs is a good soldier.  He knows war.  His statements must be based on a reliance on government provided information, a reliance that his MSNBC employers must accept and sanction.  A couple of days ago the following exchange took place between Mark Toner, a State Department spokesman, and a reporter concerning the US government's preference for an outcome in the present battle for Palmyra.

"No, I mean, look, I mean, broadly speaking, it’s not a great choice, an either/or, but – which is worse, Daesh or the regime – but we think Daesh is probably the greater evil in this case'. (See https://www.rt.com/usa/337119-us-fails-palmyra-isis/ "

It is noticeable that TV network news is studiously averting its eyes from the obvious evidence of the efficacy of Russian assistance in the fight against the Nusra Front (al-Qa'ida) and the Islamic State (Da'esh).  The Russians and Syrian government are also receiving the defections of many CIA supported "seculars" in western Syria and putting them back into the fight as village guards after training at Tartous on the coast.

To fill the time, the 24/7 news obsesses over the idiocies of the US presidential primary elections and moment by moment coverage of Europe's jihadi melt-down.  And then, last week there was the marvel of Obama's pilgrimage to Cuba, his apologies for past American misdeeds (largely notional) and his ineptitude as a tango dancer.  All these are or were grand distractions from the important events of today's world scene.

Alexander Solzhenitsyn wrote that the USSR was a "muffled zone" in which the truth could not be known because the system would not allow it to be known.   The Borgist collective's American branch is obviously happy to have achieved the same result.  In the American nomenklatura  the narrative imposed by Obama and friends in their search for hegemony (they would call it American :leadership") has destroyed the information base that Americans would need to understand the world, but, that was the idea, was it not?   pl

Aleppo - A tale of two cities.

"... a city of sharply contrasting halves, and one side clearly appears to have the upper hand.

In a park on the government-held side, families picnic while children line up to buy balloons and popcorn. A few miles away, on a sprawling university campus, thousands of students attend class. Downtown, the city’s cinema plays the latest Hollywood films. In the evenings, the restaurants fill.

War brings death and discomfort, but life continues here with a surprising degree of normality.

It’s a far cry from the images of Aleppo the world has seen during Syria’s war: the rubble-filled streets, the carcasses of buildings, lifeless bodies being dragged out of piles of detritus after airstrikes. But that is the rebel-held side.

There, the mishmash of armed groups in control are almost entirely encircled and were brutally bombarded before a recent cease-fire brought some relief. Sitting right on the battle lines, the old city of Aleppo is in tatters. The 13th-century citadel that rises above its now scorched markets with their famed vaulted ceilings is a Syrian army base."  Washpost

------------- 

The Borgist (foreign policy establishment) media description of the situation and living conditions in Aleppo city has been mendacious (lying).  With the exception of Frederick Pleitgen, TV journalists (most especially from CNN) have consistently traveled to Aleppo with Syrian government cooperation and protection, have stayed in hotels in the government held  part (most) of the City and then ventured into the rebel held pocket with its small population of Sunni fanatics, jihadi fighters and FSA unicorns for the purpose of misrepresenting the situation as being one in which "hundreds of thousands" of Alleppans (halabiyeen) are living in Leningrad siege conditions under frightful government and Russian bombardment while starving to death in the hope of achieving basic human rights.  What a crock!  This is the worst kind of memetic manipulation of images.  In the latest such effort that has come to my attention the Anglo-American CNN "flavor of the month," Clarissa Ward traveled to Aleppo (once again over the government held road LOC) to "report" from the rebel pocket in Aleppo City.  There, dressed like a salafi nun from hell, she went to moan about how tough things are for those who "fight for their religion."  I guess that Pleitgen was just too even handed for the powers that be at CNN.  He has now been "exiled" to Europe. 

In contrast we have this unaccountably wonderful story in today's Washington Post about real life in Aleppo.  Read it.  Notice the women students wearing the hijab at Aleppo University in government held Aleppo.

It continues to be my opinion that reduction of the rebel Aleppo and Idlib pockets should be a very high priority for the Syrian government.   Getting the electricity back on soon in government held Aleppo should be matter of great concern now that the SAA has recaptured the main power plants.  That alone should trigger a wave of defections from among "the pure" in the rebel pocket.  pl  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/a-tale-of-two-cities-in-aleppo-rubble-on-one-side-packed-restaurants-on-the-other/2016/03/19/3758a0cc-e55e-11e5-a9ce-681055c7a05f_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_hp-in-the-news%3Apage%2Fin-the-news

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/14/middleeast/syria-aleppo-behind-rebel-lines/index.html

THE OBAMA FOREIGN POLICY INTERVIEW by Michael Brenner

  The Atlantic has just published a long essay, The Obama Doctrine, by their Washington national correspondent, Jeffrey Goldberg. Based in most part on wide-ranging reflective interviews with President Barack Obama, the article makes extensive use of direct quotes from that interview. Considerable space is devoted to the various American engagements in the Middle East along with Obama’s views on prospects for the region.   It is a remarkable journalistic event insofar as it represents a preemptive attempt by a sitting President to shape the discourse about his record and his legacy. What he says is revealing - less as analysis and interpretation of actions taken, though, than as an ‘exhibit' of all that is peculiar about Obama’s policy-making  style - and what the implications for American diplomacy have been.

Obama's overall stance is one of dissociation from his own administration and its conduct. Throughout, he appears to be referring to himself in the 3rd person. This can be seen as the soon to be memoir writer's attempt to cast himself as detached statesman while distancing himself from errors made. However, this degree of dissociation by a still incumbent President is odd. It suggests that he has been playing the role of participant-observer while in the Oval Office. Moreover, it conveys his sense that somehow the words he utters are equivalent to actions. Indeed, a feature of his Presidency has been a frequent mismatch of words and deeds which never get reconciled. Nor do they in this seemingly candid interview. That raises a cardinal question: is this honest reflection or a characteristic flight from accountability?

Two, this strange attitude is most pronounced in his remarks about the Middle East. For example, he inveighs against allowing the United States to be placed in a position of picking sides in Islam's Sunni-Shi'ite civil war. He is especially adamant about the dangers of American power being used as a tool of the Saudis to advance their cause. Yet, this is exactly what he has been doing in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Bahrain. Moreover, he never has confronted the KSA leaders about the promotion of wahabbism or their concrete support for ISIl and al-Qaeda (in Syria and Yemen - where they fight side-by-side with Saudi troops) - either in private or in public.

Let’s step back and reflect on this. Barack Obama, President of the United States, in telling a journalist that his most important ‘ally’ in the Middle East has been aiding and abetting America’s mortal enemies – and that they should stop. Yet, three years after those hostile actions began he has yet to voice his displeasure directly in numerous meetings. Instead, he gets an interview published in a magazine that the Saudi leaders might pick up in the waiting room at the Mayo Clinic on their next medical visit. If there is any sense or logic to this, it must conform to a mental process never before encountered.

A Green Light for Illegal Immigration?

"RAMOS: And that you won't deport immigrants who don't have a criminal record?

CLINTON: Yes.

RAMOS: ... and those who don't have a criminal record.

CLINTON: Of the people, the undocumented people living in our country, I do not want to see them deported. I want to see them on a path to citizenship. That is exactly what I will do.

***********

"RAMOS: And can you promise not to deport immigrants who don't have a criminal record?

SANDERS: I can make that promise."

Transcript of Debate on 9 March 2016

-----------------

I decided that we would not have partisan arguments on SST but it seems to me that Clinton's and Sander's remarks concerning adult aliens in the US who do not have a criminal record (other than the illegal residence itself) would apply to all who are presently in the US or who will come in the future.

This is a matter of national import in terms of the ability to control immigration.

Surely the announcement of such a policy would trigger a mass effort to enter the US by any means possible.  pl

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/09/transcript-the-post-univision-democratic-debate-annotated/

The cease fire seems to be going well ...

"Over a hundred rebel unit commanders agreed to the ceasefire and signed a corresponding agreement. Over 1,000 militants laid down their arms in the Damascus province and have since been relocated from the battlefields.

Field commanders of Mujahideen Khora and El-Furqan formations which operated south of Damascus in the Kafar-Shams district likewise signed ceasefire documents, as did Maamum Shukru al-Habbusa, the leader of Burkan Khoran. This meant 600 more militants laid down their arms.

Two major formations in Deraa province, Armiya al-Ababil and Jaysh al-Yarmuk, agreed to the ceasefire and their leaders signed the declaration forms. This action took 2500 militants off the battlefield."  Southfront

-----------------

 Wall to wall, the R+6  are progressing in the task of running a marvelously successful  ANTICOIN campaign.  The Syrian government has declared an amnesty for non-jihadi rebels.  As you can read above that seems to be doing well.  It is better to work on re-integrating them than to kill them all which is the alternative policy choice.

Across the country the war goes on against the jihadis.  ground is being regained everywhere, ground that will be useful in the final battles needed to make Syria jihadi free.  The attritional battle is also going well.

Turkey appears to be stymied by the threat of Russian arms and the War Party hawks in the Borgist US government is "turning and burning" in frustration.  The post-Dempsey US Defense Department and JCS is now completely in the hands of the Borgist war party who obviously lust for a confrontation with Russia.  It would be tempting to attribute this "bloody mindedness" to male hormonal excesses but, unfortunately the worst of the worst are women.

IMO the war in western Syria will be largely ended in the next couple of months.  After that, the R+6 will make their contribution to the destruction of IS (the enemies of God).

The Iraqis?  We will see...  pl  

https://southfront.org/syria-battlefield-update-march-2/

PS  Don't let Southfront starve to death.  They are hard up.  pl

 

The Neocons will win in November.

 

"While carcass candidates dance around life-and-death issues, the familiar flock of war vultures circle coolly overhead.  Campaign promises notwithstanding, those who whisper in the ears of America’s front-runners are overwhelmingly united in further destabilizing and exploiting the Middle East.

Nation-states seeking sovereignty, independence, and equitable relationships with their neighbors may need to look to themselves for the leadership, strategy, and means to effectively resist a militaristic global tyranny.  When looking to the US, it is prudent to consider what an unidentified Irishman purportedly observed decades ago: “…You can depend on Americans to do the right thing when they have exhausted every other possibility.”  South Front

------------------

As I suspected, indeed knew in some cases, the neocons have once again succeeded in infiltrating  major US institutions in pursuit of their goal of control through universal presence in the ante-rooms of power.  In this case the institutions are the campaign staffs of ALL the remaining candidates.  (Sanders maybe not?)

I would be curious as to whether Rand Paul's staff was similarly controlled.  Perhaps it was not...

My guestimate just now, subject to future judgment as events roll out, is that Clinton's campaign will implode at some point and that Trump is likely to be the 45th president of the United States.

Will he prove biddable once in office?  Only time will tell.  pl 

 

http://southfront.org/opinion-the-war-vultures-circling-us-presidential-front-runners/

Ah... The Terrible Turks

" ...  a Kremlin statement made clear Russia was committed to its campaign against Islamic State and "other terrorist organizations", an indication that it would also target groups in western Syria where jihadists such as al Qaeda are fighting Assad in close proximity to rebels deemed moderate by the West.

Russia says the "cessation" does not apply to its air strikes, which have shifted the balance of power toward Assad.

It says Islamic State and the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front are the main targets of its air campaign. But Western countries say Russia has in fact been mostly targeting other insurgent groups, including some they support.

The White House said Obama's discussion with Putin stressed the need to rush humanitarian aid to Syria and contain air strikes.

"In particular, President Obama emphasized the importance now of Russia playing a constructive role by ceasing its air campaign against moderate opposition forces in Syria," the White House said in a statement."  Reuters

----------------

I worked in Turkey long ago, with the Turkish Army actually.  It was a very pleasant time, a two year vacation from the wars in SE Asia.  I like the Turks.  They are a lot like Americans used to be; blunt, inclined to direct action...  At the same time they treasure a pleasure in scheming that they share with the Syrian and Lebanese descendants of the vassals of the Ottoman state.

The US and the West in general have encouraged an attitude in Erdogan's Turkey that mirrors Bibi's statement that "the Americans can be pushed easily."  We all look malleable to Erdogan.  He is an MB style salafi.  He wants to think we are degenerate and doomed to live in a world dominated by his kind of Islam. We have given him no reason to think that is not the future.  At the same time we have tolerated his traffic in IS oil coming across the border east of Azaz and west of Jarabulus.    Why have we done that?  We must know that the money derived from that trade supports IS.

Now he threatens Europe with release of masses of Muslim migrants upon them.  We deserve to be threatened.  We look soft.

Now the Turkish Army is shelling YPG positions around Menagh village and its airfield near Azaz in Syria.  Why are they doing that?  IMO they want to keep R+6 forces plus the YPG from closing the border Azaz-Jarabulus and the shelling is a warning.  They have said that the Kurds must withdraw from these positions and not return.

Turkish 2nd Army is massing north of the Azaz/Jarabulus sector of the border.  The Saudi Sunni led juggernaut is at least notionally intended for combat in Syria.  Yesterday I raised the straw man idea that they might motor march all the way to Baghdad and beyond.  That seems implausible.  On the other hand a sea movement around Arabia and through the Canal to a major port like Iskenderun is quite plausible, especially given the news that Saudi aircraft are deploying into Incirlik not far from Iskenderun.  A Sunni juggernaut/Turkish Army link up in SW Turkey would provide Turkish fire and logistical support to the Sunni juggernaut.

What role would the US play in a scheme like that?  Unknown.

Would the Turks/Sunni juggernaut actually invade Syria and risk war with Russia?  Unknown.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0VN0MA

http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/turkey-shells-kurds-in-syrian-border-village-after-recapture/2016/02/13/

http://www.voanews.com/content/activists-turkey-shells-syrian-kurds-for-2nd-day/3190340.html

Diplomacy must reflect reality and not be mere attempts at trickery.

"The Syrian army looked poised on Saturday to advance into the Islamic State-held province of Raqqa for the first time since 2014, apparently to pre-empt any move by Saudi Arabia to send ground forces into Syria to fight the jihadist insurgents.'  Reuters

http://www.firstpost.com/world/lavrov-says-syria-ceasefire-more-likely-to-fail-than-succeed-reuters-2625304.html

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"If its forces retake Aleppo and seal the Turkish border, Damascus would deal a crushing blow to the insurgents who were on the march until Russia intervened, shoring up Assad's rule and paving the way to the current reversal of rebel fortunes.

Russia has said it will keep bombing Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which in many areas of western Syria fights government forces in close proximity to insurgents deemed moderates by Western states. " Reuters

 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0VM09G

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"... advances continued Friday with Russian warplanes striking multiple locations across Syria, including in the northern countryside of Aleppo in support of a 10-day-old offensive aimed at laying siege to the rebel-held portion of the city of Aleppo.

Residents of the areas of northern Aleppo that have borne the brunt of the bombing campaign expressed dismay that the cease-fire would not come into effect for a week.

“Within a week everything will have been destroyed,” said Mohammed Najjar, a resident of the town of Marae. On Friday, he joined an accelerating exodus of tens of thousands of civilians toward the Turkish border, where they have been blocked by Turkish authorities from entering the country."  Washpost 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/skepticism-greets-syria-truce-deal-on-worries-over-russian-bombing/2016/02/12/74219ec7-389a-4102-a179-aeffb21cd76f_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_syria-915am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

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“We will turn Iraq into a “graveyard” for Saudi forces if they dare attack the country,” Ahmad al-Assadi said.  South Front

http://southfront.org/iraq-will-be-a-graveyard-for-saudi-forces-ipmu/

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 I seem to recall that IPMU is the largest grouping of Iraqi Shia militia.  So, pilgrims, al-asadi believes the Saudi led juggernaut of Egyptians/Pakistanis/UAE folks (South American and African mercenaries mostly) and other assorted cats and dogs, would motor march up the long roads from NE SA (KKMC?) through altogether Shia inhabited Iraq to assembly areas west and north of Baghdad whence they would sally forth to to eliminate the "murtadoon" (apostates- according to Hojjat al-Islam Kerry).  Well, sayyid al-asadi, don't do anything to discourage the attempt.  I want to see how this would go down.

CNN aired another Frederick Pleitgen segment from Aleppo today.  He was visiting the front line with Syrian Army people.  It was quiet.  They said they thought the war would be over in a few months.  The anchor blondie who introduced the Pleitgen piece said he was reporting from rebel held Aleppo.  {{!!!!}}  The orthographic device {{----}} is hereby adopted to indicate irony.

Finally, the Great Diplomatic Dream Machine is clearly trying to persuade the Syrians/Iranians/Russians/Hizbullah to give up a winning hand through media BS.  Good luck on that!  pl

 

In Re Syria:

A number of things:

• R+6 is learning to fight together better and better.  It is clear that the Russians attached to the SAA have made major contributions in assisting; campaign planning, coordinating all arms, arranging re-equipping (T-90 tanks, aircraft, field uniforms, etc.).  Most of all their presence has brought new heart to the Syrians as such help always does to an army desperately locked in combat.  Examples are numerous in history.  For Americans, the beneficial psychological factor that came with the French "Expedition Particuliere" should come to mind.
• IMO the "siege" of Aleppo will not last long.  Rebels are deserting the cause in what they hold of the city.  They know that they are likely to be trapped in a pocket there and given their previous behavior in the war they may well receive Article 45 as a reward for that.  The Russians would have little control over that.  Local allies are never really under positive control by an intervening great power ally.  IMO Aleppo proper has not yet been occupied by R+6 because its partial occupation by rebels serves to "fix" rebel forces more or less in place throughout the NW.
• IMO the refugee flight to the Bab al-Hawaa border crossing west of Aleppo City is not flight from bombardment.  It is flight from the knowledge that a major engagement may occur in and around the city.   There are always a lot of civilians casualties from such an engagement whether the combatants want that or not.
• These "fixed' forces make wonderful objectives for R+6.  Committed to defending localities, they cannot move away from developing R+6 combat power and are being ground to bits as they try to do such things as protecting remaining border crossings into Turkey.
• IMO Turkey continues to debate its future actions.  If Turkey crosses the border with major forces, the Russians may match their escalation either in Syria or closer to home.  NATO must know that such a scenario could escalate to global war and IMO NATO is telling Turkey to be very careful or risk a refusal of support.
• IMO the policy of the US remains both belligerent  and ignorant of actual conditions in the ME region.  The notion that a pan-Sunni armed force can be created for the re-conquest of Iraq and IS controlled Syria is a fantasy.  Why?  Answer:  There are no Sunni dominated countries who either have the forces needed or who are willing to deprive themselves of the homeland presence of what are in essence internal security forces.  The idea that Saudi Arabia with its puny actual combat power could be the core of such a force is known to be ridiculous by all with a modicum of actual knowledge of the region.  Any such force would inevitably be a screen for the employment of major US ground forces to do the real fighting.  The US citizenry will not accept such a thing.   The US government appears to be living in a world of its own dreams and group think.
• There has been some speculation recently on SST concerning the causes of the low quality and inaccuracy of MSM reporting in the US, Britain and other countries.   IMO there are two basic  causes of such journalistic malpractice.  1- Corporate leadership is integrated into the world-wide informal group think network of governments, media. academia, think-tanks and mega-capitalists that I have shorthanded as the Borg.  Such corporate stakeholders are easily pushed in editorial directions desired by governments and special interest groups.  The tools are always the same; money for sponsorship of programs and access to supposedly key people.  2- Media people at the operational level (especially in TV) are generally not well educated.  They are typically products of schooling and experience in the communications arts (including journalism).  Such people are often woefully ignorant of the Humanities (history, languages, area studies, etc.) and lack any context with which to understand events on the world scene.  They are easy prey for the editorial policy given them by the corporate leaders.  There are occasional moments of comedy created by the dissonance brought to the fore by confrontations with reality.  Yesterday, CNN's Jake Tapper was distracted from the primary election circus long enough to show us all film done recently by a CNN reporter in government occupied Aleppo neighborhoods.   Life looked quite normal.  There was a lot of food in the markets.  Children played in the streets.  Women walked around without their faces covered.  Taxis drove up and down picking up and discharging fares.  Several older men were interviewed and they attributed their good conditions to the hard fighting and victories of the Syrian Army.  Tapper did not know what to say and changed the subject.   pl

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cl6-DF0wVo

US demands Russia stop bombing Syria's opposition. By Walrus.

"US Secretary of State John Kerry has demanded Russia stop bombing the Syrian opposition, implicitly blaming Moscow for the collapse in peace talks……………..

………….Mr Kerry also said that both parties to the conflict — the rebels and the regime and its allies — must allow access to besieged areas for humanitarian aid.

Nearly 40,000 Syrian civilians have fled the latest regime offensive backed by Russian air strikes near Aleppo, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The exodus began on Monday after government forces began an operation that has severed the main rebel supply route into the city and broke an opposition siege on two regime-held towns………….." 

Erdogan is also quoted in the article:

Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said the peace talks in Geneva were "pointless" while Russia and the Assad regime continued attacks in the country.

"Russia continues to kill people in Syria. Could there be such a peace gathering? Could there be such peace talks?" Mr Erdogan said in a speech in Peru, in comments published on the presidency website…………...

……..In an environment where children are still being killed, such attempts do not have any function apart from making things easier for the tyrant," he said……."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/us-demands-russia-stop-syria-bombing-after-talks-suspended/7142104

 

+++++++++

 

It appears to me that Kerry and Erdogan now realise that the latest Syrian offensive signals the beginning of the end for their fictional moderate, democratic rebels who are not really jihadists, just misunderstood. 

The Peace talks? They remind me of Napoleon III trying to "negotiate" with Moltke and Bismarck after the French were defeated at Sedan. What cards do the rebels have to play - "The gratitude of the Syrian people?".

What Kerry and Erdogan are now probably doing is contemplating  what  a reunified, jihadist free, Syria is going to look like along with a resurgent, sorry, I mean "emboldened", Russia, Hezbollah and Iran. My opinion is that they are going to remake the Middle East to the detriment of Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The question then becomes whether Turkey and the U.S. are going to permit that. There are suggestions on another thread that Turkey may try to take military action in Syria under the "responsibility to protect" mantra. I do not see that as a winning military strategy unless the U.S. and NATO can be prevailed upon to support such a venture. Are we stupid enough to do that?