Some pictures from a Karachi newspaper on a rally and procession on Karachi's main street — as part of the Xmas celebrations by the Christian community (in which many local Muslims join). There are more pictures in the paper (at this link).
Entries categorized "Pakistan"
22 December 2020
02 October 2020
" ... she 'hopes Donald Trump dies.'" Zara Rahim
"A former spokeswoman for Hillary Clinton has said she "hopes he dies" after learning that Donald Trump had contracted Covid-19.
In a now-deleted tweet, Zara Rahim said: "It's been against my moral identity to tweet this for the last four years, but I hope he dies."
In another tweet that remains live on the website, Ms Rahim posted a selfie of her smiling with the caption "this f***ing rules".
Ms Rahim worked in the White House under the Obama administration before becoming a spokeswoman for Hillary Clinton.
She has also worked as director of communications for Vogue magazine and lobbied for Uber in the United States.
In a reply to another tweeter, which has not been deleted, she said: “No, we wait for D E A T H”. " Telegraph
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Shameful! Perhaps she should run for Congress. pl
07 January 2020
Soleimani and Al-Muhandis are being mourned in Aleppo churches
(Tehran Armenian Cathedral)
Mike Pompeo was on the TeeVee today scoffing at those who do not agree with him and the Ziocon inspired "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. It must be a terrible thing for intelligence analysts of integrity and actual Middle East knowledge and experience to have to try to brief him and Trump, people who KNOW, KNOW from some superior source of knowledge that Iran is the worst threat to the world since Nazi Germany, or was it Saddam's Iraq that was the worst threat since "beautiful Adolf?"
The "maximum pressure" campaign is born of Zionist terrors, terrors deeply felt. It is the same kind of campaign that has been waged by the Israelis against the Palestinians and all other enemies great and small. This approach does not seem to have done much for Israel. The terrors are still there.
Someone sent me the news tape linked below from Aleppo in NW Syria. I have watched it a number of times. You need some ability in Arabic to understand it. The tape was filmed in several Christian churches in Aleppo where these two men (Soleimani and al-Muhandis) are described from the pulpit and in the street as "heroic martyr victims of criminal American state terrorism." Pompeo likes to describe Soleimani as the instigator of "massacre" and "genocide" in Syria. Strangely (irony) the Syriac, Armenian Uniate and Presbyterian ministers of the Gospel in this tape do not see him and al-Muhandis that way. They see them as men who helped to defend Aleppo and its minority populations from the wrath of Sunni jihadi Salafists like ISIS and the AQ affiliates in Syria. They see them and Lebanese Hizbullah as having helped save these Christians by fighting alongside the Syrian Army, Russia and other allies like the Druze and Christian militias.
It should be remembered that the US was intent on and may still be intent on replacing the multi-confessional government of Syria with the forces of medieval tyranny. Everyone who really knows anything about the Syrian Civil War knows that the essential character of the New Syrian Army, so beloved by McCain, Graham and the other Ziocons was always jihadi and it was always fully supported by Wahhabi Saudi Arabia as a project in establishing Sunni triumphalism. They and the self proclaimed jihadis of HTS (AQ) are still supported in both Idlib and western Aleppo provinces by the Saudis and the present Islamist and neo-Ottoman government of Turkey.
Well pilgrims, there are Christmas trees in the newly re-built Christian churches of Aleppo and these, my brothers and sisters in Christ remember who stood by them in "the last ditch."
"Currently there are at least 600 churches and 500,000–1,000,000 Christians in Iran." wiki below. Are they dhimmis? Yes, but they are there. There are no churches in Saudi Arabia, not a single one and Christianity is a banned religion. These are our allies?
Mr. Jefferson wrote that "he feared for his country when he remembered that God is just." He meant Virginia but I fear in the same way for the United States. pl
30 August 2019
Will Saudi Arabia survive the Yemen War? - Re-published 2 September 2016, Republished again 30 August 2019
(In light of; the decline in the economy of SA, the apparently successful Yemeni guided missile attack on Taif, SA (700 Km from the Yemen border), and the presence of Yemeni forces in the Asir Province of SA it seems appropriate to re-publish this post. It was originally posted in April, 2015)
"Pakistan's parliament voted on Friday not to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, dashing Riyadh's hopes for powerful support from outside of the region in its fight to halt Iranian-allied Houthi rebels.
Saudi Arabia had asked fellow Sunni-majority Pakistan to provide ships, aircraft and troops for the campaign, now in its third week, to stem the influence of Shi'ite Iran in what appears to be proxy war between the Gulf's two dominant powers.
While Saudi Arabia has the support of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors, Pakistan's parliament voted against becoming militarily involved.
"(Parliament) desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis," it said." Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0N10LO20150410
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IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen. This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY. SA's armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary "stick and rudder" level of operations. The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive. On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located). The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions. In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents. Egypt is dragging its feet. The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US. pl
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"Ground troops would certainly face stiff resistance from the Houthi militiamen. Seasoned guerrilla fighters, they seized parts of southern Saudi Arabia during a brief war in 2009, killing over 100 Saudi troops.
Saudi Arabia has not ruled out a ground attack, but its allies appear wary of such a move. The kingdom has asked Pakistan to commit troops to the campaign, but that country is deeply divided over participating in an operation that could anger its own Shiite minority.
Though fraught with risk, continued airstrikes and a possible ground incursion may be the only choices that Saudi Arabia sees itself as having, said Imad Salamey, a Middle East expert at Lebanese American University. He said that officials in Riyadh probably are concerned that relenting could be perceived as weakness, especially by Iran."
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IMO Saudi Arabia is headed for an embarrassing failure in Yemen, one that will reveal its true nature as a gang of nepotistic hedonists sitting on immense wealth.
What could be more tempting? pl
27 February 2019
Instead of media broadcasting the now disbarred lawyer Michael Cohen, the issues are India-Pakistan violence, nuclear weapons, and Korea
By Robert Willmann
As television and media excitedly broadcast the now disbarred former Trump lawyer and loudmouth, Michael Cohen, in the ongoing attempt to create an atmosphere conducive to removing president Trump without an election, three issues that really matter can better serve the public interest: the tensions and violence now existing between Pakistan and India, the always critical issue of nuclear weapons, and the country of Korea. There have been informative discussions on SST regarding the area encompassing Pakistan and India. In addition, as a contributor, FB Ali has provided excellent insight concerning that part of the world.
President Ronald Reagan recognized the risks and problems with nuclear weapons and did what he could to end the "cold war" and reduce nuclear weapons. Here is a speech of his from 1981--
https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/research/speeches/111881a
The current issues about India and Pakistan, and Korea--
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-idUSKCN1QG0IR
https://www.reuters.com/live/north-korea
22 August 2018
The Michael Cohen guilty plea, the Paul Manafort jury verdict, and the Imran Awan caress on the wrist
By Robert Willmann
As most of the television mass media elevated themselves to heights of ecstasy over the guilty plea of former Donald Trump lawyer Michael Cohen and the jury verdict on 8 of 18 criminal charges against former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort that happened yesterday, 21 August, there was a third, kind of hushed-up criminal case with a four-count federal indictment against a man named Imran Awan and his wife Hina Alvi that concluded yesterday with sentencing, after which Imran walked out of the courthouse and his wife's case was dismissed. She got out of the country in the face of the FBI and Capitol Police on 5 March 2017.
On 20 August 2018, a "John Doe" paper was filed regarding Cohen in the federal district court for the Southern District of New York (Manhattan)--
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/michael_cohen_notice_upcoming_charge.pdf
Yesterday, Michael Cohen showed up in court to plead guilty to a 21-page, 8-count "information" that was filed and which contained felony criminal charges. A document alleging a federal felony that is filed by agreement is called an information instead of an indictment--
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/michael_cohen_charging_document.pdf
He did so with and through a plea agreement with the Justice Department and the U.S. Attorney's office in Manhattan--
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/michael_cohen_plea_agreement-1.pdf
To conclude the formality, he was released on a personal recognizance bond, which means he is released on his signature, and he did not have to put up any money for bail, even though the amount of the bond is $500,000.00. The bond also required the signature of his wife and one additional "financially responsible person" (in this instance obviously not Trump!)--
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/michael_cohen_personal_recog_bond.pdf
Beginning on page 11 of the charging document are the alleged campaign finance violations, which are counts 7 and 8 and about which the media is estatic. Count 7, asserting an unlawful corporate contribution, refers to "Woman-1", the Playboy magazine model, and obviously regards the National Enquirer newspaper. Count 8 alleges an excessive campaign contribution, and refers to "Woman-2", the pornographic film performer, Stephanie Clifford, alias Stormy Daniels.
07 January 2018
Trump Pressures Islamabad - TTG
Last Monday our President kicked off the public phase of his administration’s effort to modify the behavior of Pakistan with his “go to” tool of state power… the tweet.
“The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”
I'm of two minds. Either he's trying to bully Pakistan into doing more against the Taliban and Haqqani Network or he's trying to force them into closing off our access to Afghanistan so we have no choice but to leave. The first possibility is a forlorn hope. The second would be diabolically clever.
Let’s examine the first option. It is consistent with USG policy since 9/11. At that time the Bush administration issued Pakistan an ultimatum. You either assist us in Afghanistan or we will destroy you. Although our objectives in Afghanistan have shifted over the last sixteen years, our nagging complaint that Pakistan is not doing enough to help us has remained constant. I’m sure the Pentagon and Borgists the world over are hoping that Trump’s blustering and bullying style will intimidate Pakistan into submission and, thus, ensuring our ultimate victory in Afghanistan… whatever that entails.
I don’t see any chance of this working. Yes the money is good, but the constant abuse emanating from Washington has been wearing on leadership in Islamabad and on the Pakistani street. They’re sick of it. Imran Khan, who will probably be the next prime minister in Islamabad, has called for Pakistan to walk away from the US and forge an alliance with China, Russia and Iran. China is certainly willing to take up the slack. They won’t be as generous as the US has been, but the aid will come without the condescending lectures. Russia may be interested. Iran may also be interested just to get us and our coalition out of their backyard.
How serious is Washington about playing chicken with Islamabad? When Rand Paul suggested that the money would be better spent on US infrastructure, Trump tweeted, “Good idea Rand!” That will be a popular idea for all Americans outside of the Borg. If this idea, and bill, gains traction, it will be hard to walk back. Although Mattis has said he is not worried about Pakistani threats of closing the roads into Afghanistan, he is worried about the closing of Pakistani airspace. That would put our forces and the Afghan army we’re still trying to create in a serious bind. Although our footprint and logistical requirements are smaller than they were years ago, the Afghan army we are creating is highly dependent on a continuous flow of Western military materiel. We no longer have the Manas Air Base as we did when we temporarily lost access to our LOCs in Pakistan in 2010. And, ironically, Russia may not be as willing to bail us out this time. I get the feeling we are trying to play chicken with a bridge abutment.
The other possibility is that Trump truly is diabolically clever and is executing a grand con on the Borg. He may be deliberately steering our current Afghan policy into that bridge abutment so that we are forced to withdraw from the area. He may not be a very stable genius, but he is a first class bullshit artist and skilled con man. That’s what it would take to pull something like this off.
Frankly I don’t care if this is due to a diabolical cleverness or an act worthy of Jubilation T. Cornpone. If it results in the US leaving Afghanistan, I’m all for it.
TTG
Recommended Reading:
US suspends about $2 billion security assistance to Pakistan
US Military Weighs Options In Case Pakistan Blocks Afghan Supply Lines
Pakistan attacks US for cutting military aid
U.S. weighs Pakistani blowback as it piles pressure on Islamabad
Trump cannot afford breaking off ties with Pakistan: NYT
China may be looking to exploit a US move to cut aid to Pakistan
07 November 2017
Tillerson’s Trip & the new Great Game (FB Ali)
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hasn’t travelled the world anywhere as much as his predecessor, Hilary Clinton; she covered almost a million miles! That is why his recent trip to South Asia excited some attention. It also brought into focus the new Great Game being played in South and Central Asia. In this new version, the United States has replaced Great Britain while, in addition to Russia, China has also become a player on the board.
Secretary Tillerson’s trip began at Al Udeid, the US base in Qatar. He and his staff donned helmets and flak jackets, and boarded a military C-17 plane. Flying in less than first-class comfort, they stoically endured the ride, including the standard deep dive onto Bagram airbase. From the plane they were quickly rushed (driving through high concrete blast walls) to the US HQ in a former prison on the base, while helicopters patrolled the perimeter and two security blimps equipped with long-range cameras hovered above.
Unable to risk the short trip into Kabul, Tillerson met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and others, including chief executive Abdullah Abdullah, in a windowless room on the base, while US troops stood guard outside. The communiqués issued by the US and Afghan governments after this meeting included the obligatory picture of the two leaders in their meeting. Unfortunately, these pictures resulted in more attention being paid afterwards to the mystery of the vanishing clock on the wall, than to any substantive results from the meeting.
Continue reading "Tillerson’s Trip & the new Great Game (FB Ali)" »
25 July 2017
What Are the Democrats Hiding? by Publius Tacitus
The mainstream media appears to be working overtime to ignore the following story:
EXCLUSIVE: FBI Seized Smashed Hard Drives From Wasserman Schultz IT Aide’s Home
This is the story of Pakistani born Imran Awan. In late May the NY Post reported that:
The criminal probe into a cadre of Capitol Hill techies who worked for dozens of Democratic lawmakers remains shrouded in mystery, months after their access to congressional IT systems was suspended.
It’s still not clear whether the investigation by the Capitol Police into the five staffers, who all have links to Pakistan, involves the theft of classified information.
The staffers are accused of stealing equipment and possible breaches of the House IT network, according to Politico, which first reported on the investigation in February. . . .
In the midst of the criminal probe, Imran and Abid Awan are now being accused of more wrongdoing, this time by a member of their own family. Last month, their stepmother accused them of threatening her in order to force her to sign a power of attorney to gain access to assets in Pakistan.
Continue reading "What Are the Democrats Hiding? by Publius Tacitus" »
02 July 2016
One Belt, One Road (FB Ali)
The Chinese project of "One Belt, One Road" (OBOR) has drawn remarkably little attention and comment in the West, especially in the USA. This is surprising, considering its tremendous scope, its implications for a large part of the world (with its potential to transform the lives of a sizable part of humanity), and its geostrategic significance.
Typically, the only voice talking about this (and other developments in China) in a sane and prescient manner is that of Amb Chas Freeman. (The neocons were right ‒ from their perspective ‒ in ensuring in 2009 that he would not be able to officially influence US policy; the loss, a grave one, was their country's). He first talked at some length about OBOR in July 2015, and then again in June of this year. This post should be considered an updated summary; for a more detailed view I would recommend Mr Freeman's 2015 talk.
OBOR seeks to convert the Eurasian land mass into a single economy by interconnecting it with a network of roads, railroads, pipelines, ports, airports, and telecommunications links, and, based on these, to create a series of development corridors containing large zones of productive economic activity (and, ultimately, prosperity).
Supplementing this essentially continental development will be a maritime component (the "Road"), aimed at investing and fostering collaboration in Southeast Asia, Oceania, and North Africa, through several contiguous bodies of water – the South China Sea, the South Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean. This will be achieved by developing suitable (deep water) ports and then building the infrastructure to link them to interior industrial zones and markets, e.g, Piraeus (in Greece), Zarubino (in Russia), Djibouti and Mombasa (in Africa), Kyaukpyu (in Myanmar) and Gwadar (in Pakistan).
Amb Freeman rightly called One belt, One Road "the largest and potentially the most transformative engineering effort in human history".
13 February 2016
Diplomacy must reflect reality and not be mere attempts at trickery.
"The Syrian army looked poised on Saturday to advance into the Islamic State-held province of Raqqa for the first time since 2014, apparently to pre-empt any move by Saudi Arabia to send ground forces into Syria to fight the jihadist insurgents.' Reuters
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"If its forces retake Aleppo and seal the Turkish border, Damascus would deal a crushing blow to the insurgents who were on the march until Russia intervened, shoring up Assad's rule and paving the way to the current reversal of rebel fortunes.
Russia has said it will keep bombing Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which in many areas of western Syria fights government forces in close proximity to insurgents deemed moderates by Western states. " Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0VM09G
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"... advances continued Friday with Russian warplanes striking multiple locations across Syria, including in the northern countryside of Aleppo in support of a 10-day-old offensive aimed at laying siege to the rebel-held portion of the city of Aleppo.
Residents of the areas of northern Aleppo that have borne the brunt of the bombing campaign expressed dismay that the cease-fire would not come into effect for a week.
“Within a week everything will have been destroyed,” said Mohammed Najjar, a resident of the town of Marae. On Friday, he joined an accelerating exodus of tens of thousands of civilians toward the Turkish border, where they have been blocked by Turkish authorities from entering the country." Washpost
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“We will turn Iraq into a “graveyard” for Saudi forces if they dare attack the country,” Ahmad al-Assadi said. South Front
http://southfront.org/iraq-will-be-a-graveyard-for-saudi-forces-ipmu/
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I seem to recall that IPMU is the largest grouping of Iraqi Shia militia. So, pilgrims, al-asadi believes the Saudi led juggernaut of Egyptians/Pakistanis/UAE folks (South American and African mercenaries mostly) and other assorted cats and dogs, would motor march up the long roads from NE SA (KKMC?) through altogether Shia inhabited Iraq to assembly areas west and north of Baghdad whence they would sally forth to to eliminate the "murtadoon" (apostates- according to Hojjat al-Islam Kerry). Well, sayyid al-asadi, don't do anything to discourage the attempt. I want to see how this would go down.
CNN aired another Frederick Pleitgen segment from Aleppo today. He was visiting the front line with Syrian Army people. It was quiet. They said they thought the war would be over in a few months. The anchor blondie who introduced the Pleitgen piece said he was reporting from rebel held Aleppo. {{!!!!}} The orthographic device {{----}} is hereby adopted to indicate irony.
Finally, the Great Diplomatic Dream Machine is clearly trying to persuade the Syrians/Iranians/Russians/Hizbullah to give up a winning hand through media BS. Good luck on that! pl
07 December 2015
Loose ends at San Bernardino
These are things that puzzle me about this attack and these people. Tell me what I have gotten wrong about these points:
1- Siyed Nizwan Farooq was evidently never on any warning list, was not under surveillance, was not on a "no fly" list. Therefore the Democrats' bleating about keeping suspected terrorists from legally buying guns is just silly. He was not a suspected terrorist.
2- Nevertheless, he chose in 2011 and 2012 to have a neighbor, a "shade tree mechanic" buddy, buy the two rifles. These were California-legal versions of the semi-automatic AR-15. These were limited in magazine capacity to ten rounds by design to make them California legal. Why did he not buy them himself? He could have and would have passed the federal/state background checks as he evidently did for the two handguns. Was he afraid that some "trail" he had left would have emerged in the background check and cause him to be surveilled? Was he afraid that the very act of buying them would have caused him to be surveilled? In any event, he was careful that far back to hide the purchase. That indicates to me that even then he intended to use these guns in a criminal act or acts.
3- Someone modified the two rifles to make them fully automatic. This is a federal crime in itself. Someone modified the two rifles to make them capable of larger magazines, 30 rounds I believe. This is probably a California crime.
4- The person who modified the two rifles had a considerable amount of skill as a gunsmith. Who was that person? Was it Farooq? Did he have that kind of skill? I know a lot about small arms and could not have done the job.
5- His mother either lived in Farooq's town house or visited it often. She saw nothing that would have made her criminally liable for not notifying the police? I doubt that.
6- His father, evidently a drunk, and divorced from the mother, is also called "Siyed." Since both father and son are so named it is likely that this is an honorific and that the family has some pretensions to descent from the Prophet Muhammad. This may well be fantasy on their part but did this influence the mental attitudes of the son?
7- This woman, Malik, seems to have been virtually invisible both in the larger community and in the Muslim community of San Bernardino. Her brother in law said he had never seen her face. Did Farooq do all the shopping? Did she never go out alone? She did not go to the local Mosque while he prayed. She waited out in the parking lot in their car.
8- Farooq was born in Illinois, and had not lived in the ME or Pakistan. He had visited but one does not learn languages well on that basis. She was Punjabi and had lived in Saudi Arabia. When she had returned to Pakistan the local people called her "the Saudi girl." I suppose that tells us something of what they thought of her. She spoke Urdu and Arabic and broken English. What language did they communicate in and do all this planning in. It must have been quite a romance.
9- Why did they not leave town after the attack? Flight would have been understandable and easily prepared. Instead they hung around town, and returned to their house at least once. The police picked up the chase there and the two lovers were killed a few blocks away.
You will think of other unusual things about this. pl
23 July 2015
Afghan Buzkashi (FB Ali)
Buzkashi is an ancient Central Asian game in which two teams on horseback seek to drag a goat carcass (often headless) across a field to a marked circle or goal line. A very rough game, it is also played in Afghanistan.
Something like Buzkashi is currently going on in Afghanistan, with not one but several teams pitted against each other. Instead of the carcass of a goat, the teams are fighting over the country, and its future within the broader regional context.
The game started in 1979 with the Soviet invasion, and has continued ever since, with the 'goat' in the possession of one team or the other. After the US-supported Mujahideen forced a Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the regime they left behind lasted for about 3 years, to be followed by a vicious civil war, centred on Kabul, between the various Mujahideen commanders and warlords. This was ended by the Taliban in 1996 when, with clandestine Pakistani support, they established control over most of the country (taking over the rest in the next two years).
The US invasion in 2001 (after the 9/11 attacks) involved a massive aerial assault under which the forces of the Northern Alliance moved on Kabul and the South. This shattered the Taliban's forces and administration, and within a few days they were completely defeated. Their troops and cadres scattered, most of them seeking refuge in their villages and homes, with a few escaping to Pakistan.
15 April 2015
The Pakistani stance on Yemen … and its implications for Saudi–Arabia
By Patrick Bahzad
The Pakistani Parliament has spoken – or maybe it was the Chiefs of Staff in Rawalpindi. Pakistan will not commit ground troops to a land-based operation against the Yemeni "Houthi" rebels. The news arrived on Friday and have stunned several Arab States, mostly Saudi-Arabia, but also the United Arab Emirates. In the US as well, a sense of disbelief seemed to prevail among the usual proponents of the anti-Iran faction.
Pakistan's decision has drawn sharp criticism from these players, yet it is based on an instinct of self-preservation and national interest that should not come as a surprise, even to those advocating for a more aggressive approach in Yemen. What is at stake for Pakistan is not just its alliances with countries in the Gulf, but its standing in the future geopolitical landscape at the intersection of the Middle-East and South-Asia.
A decision made in defiance of military and economic ties
The violence of the reaction to Pakistan's declared "neutrality" with regard to the Saudi led coalition can only be interpreted as an indicator of the upset this decision has caused. In very undiplomatic terms, Anwar Gargash – the Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – has hinted at the serious consequences the Pakistani reluctance might have and openly declared, Pakistan could pay a heavy price for its "unexpected" position. The Saudi reaction has not been as vocal, but it goes without saying that Riyadh can't have been thrilled either.
Both Gulf countries, Saudi-Arabia and the UAE, are pumping massive amounts of money into Pakistan, year in year out. The Emiratis have built-up substantial trade relations in recent years, while the Saudis have always provided relief funding to bolster the faltering Pakistani budget. Last year alone, Saudi-Arabia has injected 1.5 billion US dollars into the bottomless pit that is the Pakistani Treasury. Riyadh has also been there in times of need for current Pakistani Prime-minister, Nawaz Sharif, for example when he needed shelter at the end of 1999, after the Pakistani army under General Musharraf had organised a coup and ousted the legitimate government.
With regard to operation "Decisive Storm", Riyadh and Abu Dabi expected – or rather demanded – Pakistan to repay its debt, as it had always done in the past. Up until now, Islamabad had never bulked at the finger snapping from the Gulf. After the seizure on the Great Mosque of Mecca by Saudi fundamentalists in 1979, which had been organized in part by a brother of Osama Bin Laden, as many as 20 000 Pakistani troops were dispatched to the Kingdom, in an effort to strengthen its defences against any challenge from within. That is also the reason why the "Saudi Arabian National Guard" recruited a number of ex-Pakistani military over the years, to fill its ranks with troops more apt at fighting local insurgents and – even more importantly – more loyal to orders coming from the House of Saud.
Continue reading "The Pakistani stance on Yemen … and its implications for Saudi–Arabia" »
16 December 2014
Pakistan Was a Bad Idea. - re-published 16 December 2014
First published at SST in November, 2007. Re-published today on the occasion of the Taliban slaughter of children at a Peshawar government school for the children of military families. pl
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"Let's not be delusional about the U.S. government's influence. This is a huge, complex country, and most everything is going to happen outside of our play," said Rick Barton, a Pakistan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "But we can be a leader here."
By putting military rule ahead of the rights of his people, Musharraf has presented Bush with a test of sincerity of his freedom agenda, Barton said.
"Let's just accept that Musharraf's probably going to go down," he said. "Let's just do the right thing, and be seen by the Pakistanis as holding true to our own values and principles. Musharraf has clearly moved from being a force of moderation to being somebody who's more of a self-serving leader."
Another hopeful scenario in the U.S. view is that Pakistan's emergency states ends fast — a setback, but not a devastating one. Democracy is still the path that Pakistanis want, Johndroe said. "This is a slight detour," he said. "But I think they will get back on it. And we will strongly encourage them to do so."
Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear security expert and senior fellow for the liberal Center for American Progress, said there are few good American policy options in Pakistan. He said Pakistan is the world's most dangerous country — an unstable place of strong Islamic fundamentalist influences and a nuclear arsenal.
"If the government falls, if the Army splits, who gets the weapons?" Cirincione said. "Who gets the material for the weapons? Who gets the scientists who know how to build the weapons? Pakistan could go overnight from a major non-NATO ally to our worst nuclear nightmare." BEN FELLER
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Pakistan was always a bad idea. It is an artificial state created out of the flanks of the equally artificial British Indian empire, a state summoned into being on the basis of Muslim aversion to a shared existence with the Hindu kuffar. British weariness and exhaustion after the trauma and bleeding of the two world wars set the stage for the creation of a country based on an IDEAL of religious communal exclusivity. The country once had two halves but revolt in East Pakistan (Bangla Desh) severed that relationship long ago and left the remnant of Pakistan to simmer in a broth of communal hatred directed toward India, a country which still has a huge Muslim population, a functioning democracy (no military governments there) and an economy that is one of the world's marvels.
Pakistan is prone to religious fanaticism, tribal unrest and the rule of warriors? What a surprise! This is the traditional pattern of government throughout the Islamic World. There are places where this pattern does not typically exist; Jordan, Morocco. the UAE, Oman and a few more. The crowd will roar but I would include Egypt in this group. Strong, traditional rulers who govern with a modicum of common sense are the pattern in such places. Do we applaud their methods in such states? No! We Westerners typically seek to undermine them because they are not what we think they should be. What is that? Exactly like us, that is what we think they should be. For all our talk about the "blossoming" of freedom in locally acceptable forms, we Americans (and a lot of others) do not believe in that for a minute. We want people to be exactly like us.
In places like Pakistan where the veneer of Tom Friedman's flat world is mighty thin, meddling in the local social order carries a high risk of de-stabilizing society and releasing forces that we have no ability to manage.
Our pressure for "Democracy" in Pakistan has been incompatible with our willingness to engage an already Islamist state like Pakistan as an ally. We have wrecked the status quo in Pakistan. Now we will all pay a price. pl
12 October 2014
IS/Coalition War Game - Move 3 - Forecast of events until 4 July 2015
Summary of events in game world/game time from 5 November 2014 to 1 March, 2015.
Kobane Front.
In spite of increased US air support Kobane was totally in IS hands by 15 November. Several thousand residents fled across the border into Turkey before the end came. Over the next several weeks IS staged several execution dramas for the TV cameras waiting on the hillside across the border from the city. The UN estimates the number of executed to be more than 5,000. IS has kept several more thousand residents alive and display them on roof tops for the benefit of US air reconnaissance. This has effectively stopped US air attacks on the city. IS forces previously concentrated in the action at Kobane have moved to other positions along the border or to the Aleppo area. Kurdish rioting has built steadily in Turkey since the fall of Kobane. These riots have been put down with severity by the Erdogan government's police. There have been numerous instances of intercommunal conflict across Turkey between ethnic Turks and Kurds.
Aleppo front.
SAR forces completed encirclement of Aleppo before the end of the battle at Kobane. IS forces returning to Aleppo have repeatedly tried to break the Syrian lines of circumvellation but have failed in spite of heavy employment of suicide truck bombers as part of their fire plans for attacks. Syrian and US air attacks are occurring in close proximity to each other against much the same IS forces who are trying to break the SAR siege.
Turkish Front.
In December, Turkey announced its revocation of permission for the French Navy carrier battle group's presence in the Black Sea as well as for over flight clearance for anti-IS air operations in Iraq. Turkey stressed that emergency landing rights for damaged French aircraft would still be available at Batman. France withdrew from the Black Sea in January re-positioning the battle group in the Mediterranean Sea NE of Cyprus where it began air operations against targets in northern Iraq. Syria's foreign minister expressed satisfaction with that as well as blanket overflight clearance for French aircraft from the De Gaulle to and from Iraq. Syria also offered to exchange IFF codes with France to prevent accidental engagements. It is believed that France responded favorably to the offer. In February a group of active and retired senior Turkish Army officers attempted to depose Erdogan's government. The attempt failed when Turkish Jandarma units loyal to Erdogan blocked the attempt of a Turkish Army brigade to occupy the capital, Ankara. The brigade has been disbanded and many of its officers and soldiers arrested and held for trial for treason and mutiny. The generals and colonels who instigated the coup attempt have fled into hiding within Turkey. The government accuses the Army of hiding them within Turkish Army cantonments. In March Erdogan allowed IS to open two more consulates. One is in Antakya and the other in Erzerum. This action and the cancellation of the waiver for France in the Black Sea has caused backchannel discussions in NATO of the possibility of expelling Turkey from NATO. Russia has made it clear that it would not veto a resolution condemning Turkey in the Security Council so long as the resolution includes economic sanctions. China has not expressed an opinion with regard to such a resolution. Ambassador Samantha Power has made a public statement that the US opposes such a resolution.
Kurdish Front.
Covert and unacknowledged US/Iranian cooperation has continued in building up the Pesh Merga. US aircraft are now operating in significant numbers from KAR airfields. Equipment and supplies are now arriving with Iranian cooperation in overland deliveries from Gulf ports. These deliveries have enabled a steady build up in PM capabilities. The KAR government has made it clear that it has no interest in advancing its forces beyond what it considers to be authentically Kurdish territory. The KAR government has made it clear that it will not attempt to relieve Baghdad or any other area under Iraqi covernment control if such operations endanger Kurdish forces.
Continue reading "IS/Coalition War Game - Move 3 - Forecast of events until 4 July 2015" »
15 April 2013
"How a Single Spy Helped Turn Pakistan Against the United States" NY Times
"Munter said he believed that the C.I.A. was being reckless and that his position as ambassador was becoming untenable. His relationship with the C.I.A. station chief in Islamabad, already strained because of their disagreements over the handling of the Davis case, deteriorated even further when Munter demanded that the C.I.A. give him the chance to call off specific missile strikes. During one screaming match between the two men, Munter tried to make sure the station chief knew who was in charge, only to be reminded of who really held the power in Pakistan.
“You’re not the ambassador!” Munter shouted.
“You’re right, and I don’t want to be the ambassador,” the station chief replied.
This turf battle spread to Washington, and a month after Bin Laden was killed, President Obama’s top advisers were arguing in a National Security Council meeting over who really was in charge in Pakistan. At the June 2011 meeting, Munter, who participated via secure video link, began making his case that he should have veto power over specific drone strikes.
Panetta cut Munter off, telling him that the C.I.A. had the authority to do what it wanted in Pakistan. It didn’t need to get the ambassador’s approval for anything.
“I don’t work for you,” Panetta told Munter, according to several people at the meeting.
But Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came to Munter’s defense. She turned to Panetta and told him that he was wrong to assume he could steamroll the ambassador and launch strikes against his approval.
“No, Hillary,” Panetta said, “it’s you who are flat wrong.”
There was a stunned silence, and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon tried to regain control of the meeting. In the weeks that followed, Donilon brokered a compromise of sorts: Munter would be allowed to object to specific drone strikes, but the C.I.A. could still press its case to the White House and get approval for strikes even over the ambassador’s objections. Obama’s C.I.A. had, in essence, won yet again." NY Times
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The basic theme in this piece is the extent to which CIA has been allowed a free hand, a free hand that makes them feel free to defy US ambassadors in their country of assignment and Secretaries of State as well.
This is not a new thing. CIA has always evaded the principle of the "Country Team" in which anbassadors are the leaders of all US Government activites in their country of accreditation, but in the past they have generally just ignored the ambassador while continuing to do what they pleased, but now they are more confident.
BTW. Davis was in the army ten years. He is a former soldier, not a retired soldier. pl
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/14/magazine/raymond-davis-pakistan.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
01 April 2013
07 January 2013
Interesting times in Pakistan (FB Ali)
With its estimated 190 million population and its nuclear arsenal, Pakistan is an important country in its own right. However, its location makes it even more significant. Sitting next to Afghanistan, Iran and India, it plays a key role in the geopolitics of the region. It has been a major factor in the United States' two campaigns in Afghanistan, the first time playing a leading role in helping the Afghan mujahideen to expel the Soviet Union's occupying forces from their country, and, more recently, being blamed for the US's lack of success in defeating the Taliban insurgency.
Some recent developments, including some policy moves and changes, make it likely that the role that Pakistan has played in the region will change, as will the internal situation in the country. It is worth looking at these.
27 December 2012
Pakistan's loneliest church celebrates Christmas in Taliban country
Pastor Nazir Alam smiles as he
talks to a journalist at the church
This Christmas, pastor Nazir Alam will stoke up a fire, lay a fresh cloth on the altar and welcome parishioners as they arrive at his church in Waziristan, a Pakistani tribal area known as an al-Qaeda haven.
"The lights are all up, and the choir boys are ready. The church is looking its best," said 60-year-old Alam, a former missionary who has celebrated his last ten Christmases there. "There's not much left to do but to pray and rejoice."
Outsiders might see little cause for joy. Pakistan is the sixth most dangerous country in the world for minorities, says London-based watchdog Minority Rights Group International. Christians, Shiite Muslims and Ahmadis are victims of a rising tide of deadly attacks.
But Alam's church, and the homes of most of his 200 parishioners, are nestled inside a Pakistani army base in South Waziristan, a mountainous region that was a hotbed of militancy until a military offensive in 2009.
"When the US went into Kabul, things became bad for everyone. But we are safe here. The army protects us," says Shaan Masih, who helps clean the church and likes to play the drums and sing carols.
Continue reading "Pakistan's loneliest church celebrates Christmas in Taliban country" »
04 September 2012
Israel looks for face saving over Iran
"Pointing to a possible way out, Netanyahu has since said that more explicit international warnings could prevent war, indicating he wanted the United States to provide Tehran with unambiguous options to halt its nuclear activity or face war. "The greater the resolve and the clearer the red line, the less likely we'll have conflict," he said on Monday. Positions are likely to be clarified at an expected meeting late this month between U.S. President Barack Obama and Netanyahu when the Israeli leader addresses the U.N. General Assembly in New York. "That will be a crucial encounter. They will have to reach an understanding there. At the end of the day, you do reach an understanding, always," said Eiland, who had numerous dealings with Washington during his time as national security adviser. Reuters
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No, the US does not have to give Israel anything that it does not want to give it. What is revealed here is that Israel is a client of the United States and not the other way around. All that is needed to make that "stick" is to continue to "discipline" the client.
General (Ret.) Michael Hayden, former director of CIA, has also told the Israelis that they lack the ability to successfully attack Iran. This opinion seems to be universal in the US Government.
On the other hand, if the Israelis wish, let them show the US (us) that we are wrong and that they can pull this off by themselves. Let them show us that they can do it ALONE.
It would be interesting to learn what sort of evolution in Iranian- Pakistani relations such an Israeli attack would provoke. pl
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/04/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE8830QO20120904
14 July 2012
De Borchgrave on Pakistan
"A U.S. grovel is what Pakistan said would reopen Afghan supply routes. But while the United States conceded bombing coordinates were misread by U.S. fighter bombers and gunships, the Pakistani military supplied erroneous information on the location of Taliban forces.
Finally, the United States uttered a word short of the apology demanded -- "sorry" -- and the Pakistanis, in a phony burst of wounded pride salved, allowed truck convoys to inch forward as they were inspected for prohibited lethal weaponry and to collect a toll of $300-$500 depending on the size of the vehicle.
Some of the three out of four Pakistanis who say the United States is the enemy of Islam and consider reconciliation tantamount to treason, moved forward slowly in what they called "a long march" -- actually two days -- by truck, bus, car and bicycle -- from Lahore to the front of Parliament House in Islamabad."
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De Borchgrave is a clear thinker. Age and experience DO count in learning to think. He must be nearly 90 now. His grandfather Charles Townshend commanded a Sikh Pioneer battalion at the siege of the British Indian Army garrison at Chitral in the Himalayas in the 1890s and later as a lmajor general of the Indian Army surrendered to the Turks at Kut in the first world war. They have been around the "track" a few times in the sub-continent in his family.
When he tells you something about Pakistan, you should listen carefully. pl
05 July 2012
Trucks roll through the passes.
"The first trucks carrying NATO supplies crossed from Pakistan to Afghanistan at the Chaman border crossing on Thursday, after a seven-month blockade of the ground routes (NYT, AP, CNN, AFP, Reuters, BBC). Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar agreed to reopen the supply lines after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called her on Tuesday, and said she was "sorry for the losses suffered by the Pakistani military"" Foreign Policy
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I suppose the reason we did not make this meaningless statement long ago was that Jack Keane was advising generals Mattis and Allen as to the appropriate response. His attitude toward Pakisttan was made clear in the post just below. Pakistan is really as much an adversary in Afghanistan as an ally, but it is nevertheless true that we need the supply routes just now being re-opened. Without them the force in Afghanistan is relying on a "crazy quilt" of routes through the former Soviet Union that are costing us even more than the routes through Pakistan. With withdrawal about to begin, the movement of heavy equipment to the port of Karachi over Pakistan's roads will be even more critical.
I am curious as to what else the Pakistanis received in return for their acceptance of this delayed apology. How much trhey are now charging us in fees for the passage of our cargo. Have the fees gone up? pl
http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/07/05/first_nato_trucks_cross_pakistani_border
25 February 2012
Afghanistan ─ Reality and the way out (FB Ali)
Watching the United States stumble from one bad policy into another over the 10 years of the Afghan war, one went through a whole gamut of emotions ─ bemusement, puzzlement, anger, sorrow ─ but ending up with bewilderment overpowering the others. How could this great empire, with all the resources of knowledge, experience, intellect, research and analysis at its command, get it so consistently wrong? How could this “greatest democracy in the world” allow special interests to take over its policy-making to the grave detriment of the true interests of the country and its people?
Part of the answer was provided by Andrew Bacevich in a recent article. He wrote: "Strategy is a quintessential American Century word, ostensibly connoting knowingness and sophistication. Whether working in the White House, the State Department, or the Pentagon, strategists promote the notion that they can anticipate the future and manage its course ...... Strategy is actually a fraud perpetrated by those who covet power and are intent on concealing from the plain folk the fact that the people in charge are flying blind”.
Another part of the answer comes from what happened to Bacevich. A former army officer, now a professor of history and international relations, he is one of the sanest people in America writing about current affairs. In recognition of that his writings were always welcome on the OpEd pages of the principal newspapers and in periodicals ─ until he started pointing out the folly in many of the policies being pursued by the US. He was then dropped like a brick. The only ‘experts’ who are now featured in both the MSM and scholarly journals are those who push the reigning narrative. Presumably, they are the only ones now read or heard in the corridors of power.
That is why it was such a pleasant surprise to come across an article that offered a remarkably clear-eyed view of the reality of the situation in Afghanistan today, and proposed a way out for the United States.
Continue reading "Afghanistan ─ Reality and the way out (FB Ali)" »
04 December 2011
Several things from the Sunday newsies.
– On GPS today Gideon Rose, the editor of Foreign Affairs, stated that "now we are all Israelis." He based this on conversations with officials in Washington who indicated to him that a nuclear Iran was "intolerable." He further stated that this reflects his view that Iranian progress on nuclear weapons will soon require air attacks on that country. In listening to him it became clear that either he does not know what would be involved in an air campaign to damage the Iranian nuclear program or else he does not care to tell us. In fact such a campaign in order to be effective would involve at least 500 strike sorties and at least that many support sorties. One must ask what is the game here? I am quite certain that the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Gen. Mattis of the Marine Corps have counseled the president that they feel it would be most unwise to launch such a campaign. Their reasoning has to do with actual consideration of available resources and space/time factors. What is Mr. Rose's statement based on?
- David Ignatius has a column in today's Washington Post in which he says that the US military have essentially abandoned the doctrine of counterinsurgency. This is not a surprise. We have been predicting it on SST for years. The COIN doctrine has once again proven to be impracticable when applied to large-scale situations in which the counterinsurgents are not the owners or even the permanent occupiers of the territory. As I have tried to counsel the Coinistas over the last few years, theprophets of failed dogma inevitably suffer the same fate as their rejected teaching. Ignatius makes the plea that this doctrine should not be altogether abandoned but should be retained as some small capability of the Armed Forces. I would support that. It is a suitable secondary mission for U.S. Army special forces (the Green Berets). UW should remain their primary mission. Conventional ground forces should be greatly reduced in size to save money and to discourage the idea of large-scale foreign ground interventions.
–Supposed experts continue to express surprise that the Egyptian electorate is going to vote an Islamist parliament into office. They do not comprehend the fact that the Egyptian population in the majority are deeply Islamist. What is going to happen is that this parliament and the leadership of the Egyptian military are going to combine with the new president, whenever he is elected, to consolidate their various positions. I still think that the next president is likely to be Amre Mousa. Eventually either the Islamists or the military will end up in charge in Egypt but that may take a while. pl
03 December 2011
A Russian threat to the supply line?
"... in Afghanistan, everything comes from outside and the insurgency this year has been very high as 700 causalities have been reported. Therefore after the Russian decision, Afghanistan will turn into a reverse Kargil for NATO. “They will have weapons but no bullets to fire; and if Pakistan shuts the air corridors on NATO then it would be a cold death for them and America will have to renegotiate with Pakistan”, she said." the news
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I don't know anything about this paper but the level of menace is worrisome. "A cold death?" This is the first that I have heard of Russia threatening our supply line. Is that true? pl
http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=10685&Cat=13
30 November 2011
Should we get "out of Dodge?"
"Pat,
As always, I greatly enjoy your blog and greatly appreciate your hard work keeping it going.
I have a simple question I would like to see posed to the wise people for discussion on your blog under my by-line of WP.
What would happen if the U.S. immediately ceased all aid and subsidies to Pakistan, burned all of its bases, equipment, and embassy in Afghanistan, and put all American troops, personnel, and contractors on planes back to the U.S. so they all arrived in time for Christmas? Or, to put it another way, what would be the consequences of an immediate, total, and absolute withdrawal from Afghanistan and Pakistan?
It is time for the U.S. radically to rethink its approach to the region.
JP"
26 November 2011
The Memogate Brouhaha (FB Ali)
All of Pakistan has recently been watching with rapt attention the twists and turns of an unfolding scandal that the country’s febrile media has happily termed ‘Memogate’. The ruling party, in full defensive mode, watches apprehensively even as it bobs and weaves with every disclosure. The opposition parties gleefully plot and maneouvre to gain maximum advantage, while the generals nervously button and unbutton their holsters. The privileged upper class pauses in its living of the good life, and ordinary people forget their problems and miseries for a while, as the breathless TV anchors report each new development. Even the Pakistani Taliban declared a ceasefire, perhaps the better to follow the unfolding story without such distractions as setting off bombs or laying ambushes.
16 November 2011
Cordesman on Iraq and Afghanistan
The US invasion did bring down a remarkably unpleasant dictatorship, but at cost of some eight years of turmoil and conflict, some 5,000 US and allied lives and 35,000 wounded, and over 100,000 Iraqi lives. The Congressional Research Service estimates that the dollar cost of the war to the US alone is over $823 billion through FY2012, and SIGIR estimates that the US and its allies will have spent some $75 billion on aid – much of it with little lasting benefit to Iraq. The outcome in Afghanistan and Pakistan now seems unlikely to be any better. While any such judgments are subjective, the odds of meaningful strategic success have dropped from roughly even in 2009 to 4:1 to 6:1 against at the end of 2011. It is all very well for senior US officials to discuss ―fight, talk, and build,‖ and for creating a successful transition before the US and ISAF allies withdraw virtually all of their combat troops and make massive cuts in the flow of outside money to Afghanistan. The US, however, has yet to present a credible and detailed plan for transition that shows the US and its allies can achieve some form of stable, strategic outcome in Afghanistan that even approaches the outcome of the Iraq War." --------------------------------------
"Yet Iraq is already a grand strategic failure. The US went to war for the wrong reasons, let Iraq slide into a half decade of civil war, and failed to build an effective democracy and base for Iraq’s economic development. Its tactical victories – if they last – did little more than put an end to a conflict it help create, and the US failed to establish anything like the strategic partnership it sought.
There is war and then there is dumb war. These have been dumb wars, poorly conceived and poorly executed. pl
https://csis.org/files/publication/111115_Afghanistan_at_End_2011.pdf
27 October 2011
"Secret Pakistan" BBC
I strongly recommend that you all watch the six parts of this that are Available on U-Tube. This is not being broadcast outside the UK. That makes it appear that some governments do not want us to see it. There will be a second segment next week. If someone finds better links please give them to me.
The American officers and numerous former CIA men who had their say in this deserve our respect. The Obama Administration is relentless in its pursuit of "leakers" and that is how they will see this. pl
http://criticalppp.com/archives/60846
or
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=secret+pakistan&aq=0z&oq=Secret+P
Pakistan wants a Chinese naval base.
According to this article Pakistan is pressing China to construct a naval port at Gwadar in SW Pakistan on the Arabian Sea. China has already taken over (at Pakistan's request) the little used commercial port at Gwadar. Karachi is Pakistan's major port.
The Chinese are apparently reluctant to make an overseas naval commitment of this scope. Such a naval base would be Pakistani but dual use by the two countries seems likely. The same article mentions a separate possible Chinese naval base in Sri Lanka.
Uighur Muslim guerrillas are active in Chinese teritory in Sinkiang. These are reported in this piece to be trained in camps in Pakistani Waziristan. The Chinese are interested in establishing a ground military presence in the north of Pakistan to put an end to that training and support.
IMO all of this is related to the rapidly disintegrating relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on the one hand and the United States on the other. pl
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MJ26Df03.html
26 October 2011
"Taliban commanders say Pakistan intelligence helps them " Reuters
Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:00am EDT
"LONDON (Reuters) - Pakistan's security service provides weapons and training to Taliban insurgents fighting U.S. and British troops in Afghanistan, despite official denials, Taliban commanders say, in allegations that could worsen tensions between Pakistan and the United States.
A number of middle-ranking Taliban commanders revealed the extent of Pakistani support in interviews for a BBC Two documentary series, "Secret Pakistan," the first part of which was being broadcast on Wednesday.
A former head of Afghan intelligence also told the program that Afghanistan gave Pakistan's former president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, information in 2006 that Osama bin Laden was hiding in northern Pakistan close to where the former al Qaeda leader was eventually killed by U.S. special forces in May.
Admiral Mike Mullen, then the top U.S. military officer, accused Pakistani intelligence last month of backing violence against U.S. targets including the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.
He said the Haqqani network, an Afghan militant group blamed for the September 13 embassy attack, was a "veritable arm" of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI). Pakistan denies the U.S. allegations.
One Taliban commander, Mullah Qaseem, told the BBC the important things for a fighter were supplies and a hiding place.
"Pakistan plays a significant role. First they support us by providing a place to hide which is really important. Secondly they provide us with weapons," he said, according to excerpts provided by the BBC.
Other Taliban commanders described how they and their fighters were, and are, trained in a network of camps on Pakistani soil.
According to a commander using the name Mullah Azizullah, the experts running the training are either members of the ISI or have close links to it.
"They are all the ISI's men. They are the ones who run the training. First they train us about bombs; then they give us practical guidance," he said."
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It appears that Pakistan has played us like a violin. pl
23 October 2011
Afghanistan, Pakistan's Ally
"Afghanistan would support Pakistan in case of military conflict between Pakistan and the United States, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said in an interview to a private Pakistani TV channel broadcast on Saturday." MSNBC
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Yet another triumph for the neocons. Bush, Obama, the COINistas, (especially you, (Nagl), Petraeus, etc. Laughable in a horrid way. I suppose I will be forced to resurrect my decade long critique of all this. pl
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44998270#.TqSe0HLpf-B
08 October 2011
A new kind of war - FB Ali
On the recent thread about Anwar al-Awlaki’s killing, the question came up as to whether the US really is at war or not. This is an important issue, and its answer carries much wider significance beyond just the legality of killing Awlaki.
The short answer to the question, of course, is: it is war, because the US chooses to treat it as such. But it’s the dawn of a very different kind of war.
When George Bush declared his Great War on a nebulous noun (which most people understood to mean Islamists, though some construed it as Islam), he still waged it in the conventional manner. Pinning the blame for 9/11 on Afghanistan and Iraq, he invaded both countries. This was not much different from Austria-Hungary declaring war on and invading Serbia in 1914 because of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand by a Serb nationalist.
30 August 2011
Osama bin Laden : The real story? - FB Ali
The killing of bin Laden in a US Special Forces raid on a house in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad unleashed a torrent of stories about the event. The accounts by various US officials (given in bits and pieces immediately after the raid) gave little information on the details of the operation, and none on the ‘back story’. This left the field open to a lot of speculative accounts about how the raid took place and the events leading up to it. A rash of conspiracy theories also sprang up, many of which flatly denied bin Laden was even present in the house, while others put forward various versions of the Pakistani role in these events.
Recently, two accounts have been published that claim to be based on information from sources ‘in the know’ or ones who actually participated in the planning (though perhaps not the execution) of the raid. The first was a detailed account by Nicholas Schmidle in The New Yorker, based on interviews with and information provided by senior White House staff and some of the planners of the raid. This was obviously the “official” version, what the US administration would like people to believe. The second is a post on her blog by RJ Hillhouse, in which she quotes her intelligence sources on certain aspects of the raid, especially the events leading up to it.
By studying these two accounts, separating the grain from the chaff, and judiciously filling in some of the blanks, it is possible to come up with what is likely to be fairly close to the real story.
Continue reading "Osama bin Laden : The real story? - FB Ali" »
11 July 2011
Pakistan says - Keep your money.
"U.S. officials have been quoted as saying the move is a response to Pakistan's decision to expel American military trainers and put limits on visas for U.S. personnel.
Analysts say the suspension also is aimed at pressuring Pakistan's army to do more to cooperate with the U.S. to fight militants" VOA
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All right. Let's keep our money. I am accustomed to be told in the ME "We have our pride..." Ihis is usually from Arabs. This time it is from Pakistan.
We should have a rule. Anyone who tells us something like this should not be "forced" to take our money, especially now when we are hard up for money at home. The Pakistani Army brass says they will continue the fight against the militants who want a lor of them dead or in exile. Well, good on'em! Best of luck fellahs! Hang onto those nukes. India and indeed the world are watching you. If the Islamists take over your country, there might not be one.
Pakistan is a "vital" ally? How? The operation that killed OBL had nothing to do with the cooperation of Pakistan's army or the ISI. Don't believe anything to the contrary.
Actually, the reaction of the US Government to this "issue" in Pakistan should be normative. The moral - If you take our money we expect you to play the game honestly with us. If you do not, as Pakistan has not then we will walk away from you. pl
22 June 2011
Afghan Endgame : Current state of play - FB Ali
The endgame continues to unfold in Afghanistan, as it has now for over a year. Writing in May last year, I had discussed the goals and objectives that the various players in the Afghan conflict (and the factions within each of them) wanted to achieve in this endgame. In this past year these goals haven’t changed, but the methods that the players are adopting of trying to achieve them have changed with the changing situation. This is an appropriate occasion to review how the endgame is being played now.
In May last year President Obama had sided with the war faction (led by Secretary Gates and the generals), and allowed them to pursue their strategy of sufficiently weakening the Taliban to permit the US to safely hand over the country to a friendly Afghan government and its army (backed by US airpower and SF). He had ruled against the ‘minimalist’ faction, led by VP Biden, that wanted an expeditious US pullout on the best terms that could be negotiated with the Taliban. Now, Obama has adopted the Biden goal as the ultimate aim, though, in typical fashion, he has compromised by letting the generals take one last kick at the can. However, he has given them firm deadlines for drawing down US forces in Afghanistan, and has clearly signalled that, for the US, the Afghan war is now finally over.
Continue reading "Afghan Endgame : Current state of play - FB Ali" »
16 June 2011
You mean the Pakistanis are NOT OUR FRIENDS?
"At a closed briefing last week, members of the Senate Intelligence Committee asked Michael J. Morell, the deputy C.I.A. director, to rate Pakistan’s cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism operations, on a scale of 1 to 10.
“Three,” Mr. Morell replied, according to officials familiar with the exchange.
The fate of the C.I.A. informants arrested in Pakistan is unclear, but American officials said that the C.I.A. director, Leon E. Panetta, raised the issue when he travelled to Islamabad last week to meet with Pakistani military and intelligence officers." NY Times
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Actually three out of ten is not that bad. Intelligence liaison relationships are always sometimes things and rather dependent on "the weather." When interests align, they align. When they do not...
Surely not the British! Not them! No? If you say so...
Hey folks! Pakistan is an independent foreign sovereign country not yet included in the imperium. They are not we and we are not they. No, it is not true that all people are basically the same, yearning to be freed of ancient "superstition" so that they can "bloom" in the bright sunlit uplands of modern (American) culture.
So, we are surprised... No, we are "shocked!" We are "shocked" that Pakistan finds unauthorised help given to a foreign intelligence agency to be possibly criminal behavior. We are "shocked."
We are like children. That is what we really are.
It is obvious that the Pakistani establishment protected Bin Laden and hid him from us. Why? It was because they are not we and we are not they. Have you not ever noticed the crescent and star on Pakistan's green flag? pl
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/world/asia/15policy.html
06 June 2011
Syed Saleem Shahzad, writer, RIP - James ben Goy
In the West, where modern journalism developed, we used to have writers like Saleem Shahzad . . .didn't we? Writers completely committed to doing their job, which was foremost the exposure of the shenanigans and goings-on in and between government, the financial cabals embezzling our countries, and their military/police mafias. Of course, we also used to have publishers who were committed to being that press explicitly identified in the First Amendment, correct? Or, maybe we never had them at all, only a mythology. Today we surely have neither, only talking heads, embedded flacks, and publishers wholly owned or cowed by the globalist financial interests.
It's no accident Shahzad had to be found on the internet - see above - and let us see how long that openness continues to last. The qualities that confined him thereto, like stones, for example, are what makes writers like him so important as points of illumination and inspiration. To my knowledge he never made it full-time into any of the so-called major media outlets. Until today, that is, where his murder is just another bat to beat on Pakistan.
Farewell, Saleem, God give you peace. I can't comment on you as a man, because I only knew you through your writing, but I will miss it, your irony, your wit, but most of all, your insights. Speaking only to your career, you set the bar high, and your biggest irony, your final irony, was it was set in the most dangerous place on earth for your profession. Who will step up to take your place? And where?
James ben Goy
21 May 2011
United States and Pakistan - FB Ali
“The relationship, in truth, has never been about trust. It was and is a strategic alliance founded on complementary interests: Pakistan's desire for military assistance and its fear of becoming a pariah state, and the U.S.'s need for regional support in the Afghanistan war. While Pakistan and the U.S. share similar long-term goals — economic partnership, stability in the region — their short-term needs rarely intersect. That is why the question of whose side Pakistan is on is so galling to most Pakistanis and so infuriating to most Americans. "Pakistan is on Pakistan's side," says Tariq Azim, an opposition Senator and Deputy Information Minister under Musharraf”. ‒ TIME
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Since the US raid that killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, there has been a lot of heated rhetoric, bordering on the hysterical, in the media of both countries (some of that has even seeped into comments on this site). TIME is not known for in-depth analysis, but its May 23 cover story (Why we’re stuck with Pakistan) is a detailed and insightful discussion of the issue. Well worth a read (at the link below) for anyone who wishes to understand the background and recent history of the relationship, and the tensions and strains that currently bedevil it .
FB Ali
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2071005,00.html#ixzz1N0WD8B9T
09 May 2011
Pakistani Leader Rebuts Criticism Over bin Laden - WSJ
"Pakistan's prime minister sought to assuage spreading anger at home over the U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden in a defiant speech to parliament, rejecting accusations that Pakistanis shielded the al Qaeda leader and suggesting the terror network was created by the U.S." WSJ
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Comments? pl
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576313153255249860.html
06 May 2011
#Pakistan in the light of day
"Pakistan’s army chief warned Thursday that any repeat of the type of U.S. commando operation that killed Osama bin Laden would be viewed as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty and would imperil military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries.
The combative statement came as a senior U.S. defense official said Pakistan would have to take “very concrete and visible steps” to persuade Congress to continue providing $3 billion in annual military and economic assistance." Washpost
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"It's nice to be nice to the nice." Frank Burns
Let's see... What does Pakistan do for the US?
1-They let our Main Supply Route to Afghanistan run north from their ports to the Khyber Pass and to Quetta. This is a major vulnerability for us. With the size force we have in Afghanistan, we would have a difficult time supplying that force either through Russia or by air. Pakistani companies make a lot of money in the haulage on this MSR.
2- Pakistan's military keeps it's existing and future nuclear capability out of the larger world game. As has been discussed at SST many times, Pakistan either has or will soon have the real world CAPABILITY of ranging Israel's target set. They have around 100 fully engineered and manufactired deliverable nuclear weapons. They have aircraft and missiles (Shahiin 2 improved) that would do the job. The missile launchers are fully mobile. The US has zero control over this nuclear strike force. Logically, the willingness of the Pakistan military to keep this "piece" off the chess board is a major boon to the US. We do not want to see that willingness change to something else.
03 May 2011
#Raid in Pakistan - Radio Interview
I was on the Pat Campbell radio show this AM to talk about the bin Laden op. pl
http://podcast.1170kfaq.com/PCInterviews/tabid/1838/Default.aspx
18 April 2011
#Something’s happening.......... FB Ali
The media’s preoccupation with the terrible earthquake and tsunami in Japan, followed by the protracted nuclear crisis, had hardly subsided when the Arab Spring burst into bloom with its tense standoffs, between the old order and the new, erupting into violence, and actual war in Libya, with the West as a participant. All this drove the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan off the news, except for a brief flurry of reporting following Pastor Terry Jones’s incendiary exploits. (Personally, I don’t think there is anything to the story that the Quetta shura has made the reverend an honorary Taliban in recognition of his services to the cause).
However, the war in those distant lands has been grinding on in its usual fashion ‒ IEDs and suicide bombers killing soldiers and civilians (though there was the odd case of two US soldiers being killed by a US drone), coalition air strikes and SF night raids killing insurgents and civilians, the Pakistan army’s operations in its tribal areas continuing unendingly, young Taliban suiciders blowing up Pakistanis. The political and strategic games between the main players in the war have also been continuing, though it appears that they are now starting to take a significant new turn.
Continue reading "#Something’s happening.......... FB Ali" »
11 April 2011
#Drones? Who? What?
"In all, about 335 American personnel — C.I.A. officers and contractors and Special Operations forces — were being asked to leave the country, said a Pakistani official closely involved in the decision.
It was not clear how many C.I.A. personnel that would leave behind; the total number in Pakistan has not been disclosed. But the cuts demanded by the Pakistanis amounted to 25 to 40 percent of United States Special Operations forces in the country, the officials said. The number also included the removal of all the American contractors used by the C.I.A. in Pakistan." NY Times
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(Irony Alert) What's the matter with those people in Pakistan? Don't they understand that the US decides for them what will or will not be? Sovereignty? We dealt with that idea in Iraq. Didn't we?
To quote Christopher Matthews (is that still his name?) a few years back, "Who is in charge in Iraq, Us or them?"
Well, soon they will "sober up" (sort of) and realize who is in charge. Petraeus will fix all this. pl
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/world/asia/12pakistan.html
16 March 2011
The Davis saga ends ‒ FB Ali
It started with a bang (quite a few bangs, actually), but ended with a whimper. On Wednesday afternoon the sessions court convened inside Kot Lakhpat jail, with the accused present, as well as the families of the victims. Their lawyers weren’t there because, when they arrived at the jail earlier that day, they were escorted to another room and placed under armed guard. Also not there was the young widow of one of the victims who, overcome with grief and the futility of hoping for justice, had taken her own life. (Of course, as devotees of le Carré will recognise, Raymond Davis himself was also a victim).
The judge read out the indictment; then a representative of the victims’ families stood up and told him that they had accepted payment of compensation for the killings and, under the diyyat provisions of the law, had pardoned the killer. Having confirmed this, the judge ordered the prisoner released. In the hush that followed, as Davis walked towards the US Consul seated behind him he had tears trickling down his face, but the whimpering sound probably came from some of the womenfolk among the families. Within minutes Davis left in a convoy of diplomatic vehicles; within the hour he was on a plane bound for Bagram airbase in Kabul.
01 March 2011
#The fallout from the Davis affair ‒ FB Ali
Raymond Davis’s murder trial has begun, while the US continues to press for his repatriation, though now much more circumspectly. Whatever the outcome of these proceedings, this affair has already had a significant impact on the US-Pakistan relationship, and may yet do so also on Pakistan’s internal situation.
I had concluded my previous thread on the subject by advancing the hypothesis (triggered by a couple of useful pointers from TTG and MTJY) that Davis was working for a JSOC Special Mission Unit whose task related to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. This hypothesis has acquired some legs if one considers the effects this event has had, and is having. All of them were set off when it caused the balance of power in the Pakistani establishment to tilt away from the US-friendly faction towards the Pakistan-friendly one (the bulk of this establishment is, of course, just self-friendly).
Continue reading "#The fallout from the Davis affair ‒ FB Ali" »
19 February 2011
#Update : The Raymond Davis Affair ‒ FB Ali
The saga rolls on, while (as they used to say in the old pulp novels) the plot thickens. Davis remains in prison awaiting trial. Relations between Pakistan and the US continue to be quite strained. And the circle of collateral damage widens.
The facts of the incident that sparked all this are now fairly clear. Davis, in a rental car, was driving around in Lahore in areas where foreigners scarcely ever venture, tailed by two ISI auxiliaries on a motorbike. After an hour or more of trying to shake them off, they both came abreast at a stoplight. He pulled out a gun and, firing through his windscreen, shot them both. Accounts differ as to whether they made any threatening gesture, but one was killed as he was trying to run away.
The backup van that Davis called for came roaring up the wrong way on a one-way street, ran over a cyclist, killing him, then turned around and roared off. Davis was arrested, and weapons, ammo and other paraphernalia were found in the car. On his cell phone were numbers that were later traced to phones in the tribal belt where the Taliban operate, while his camera had pictures of religious schools and military sites.
Continue reading "#Update : The Raymond Davis Affair ‒ FB Ali" »
14 February 2011
Dealing with change - FB Ali
Barack Obama was elected as the apostle and agent of change. He hasn’t been able to bring about much change, but is now likely to get his fill dealing with it ‒ not in the US, but in the Muslim world. What has happened in Tunisia and Egypt is not some passing phenomenon. There is a wave of change surging through Muslim countries, and it is likely to ebb and flow for a long time. Obama (and his successor) are going to have their hands full coping with it. As will other powers. For this is the latest phase in the relationship between the Muslim world and the rest.
31 January 2011
Pakistan Nucs = 100
"Pakistan's nuclear arsenal now totals more than 100 deployed weapons, a doubling of its stockpile over the past several years in one of the world's most unstable regions, according to estimates by nongovernment analysts." Washpost - Karen de Young
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One of my favorite "hobby horses," why do the Israelis not act more concerned about this? I thnk that the iproduct improved Shaheen 2 ranges Israel from western Baluchistan. even if it does not as yet the weapons system has to be regarded as a threat in Tel Aviv. Do the Israelis really think we can protect them from this? If they do they are kidding themselves. A deterrent against India? Today, yes. Tomorrow Who knows? pl
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013004136.html?hpid=topnews
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