Sic Semper Tyrannis

Is an Israeli air strike on Iran imminent? - TTG

Top Israeli military figures have slammed as “empty” and “inappropriate” the recent anti-Iran remarks made by the Israeli regime’s army chief of staff lieutenant general Aviv Kochavi. In his remarks on Tuesday, Kochavi said the Israeli military was revising its attack plans against Iran amid fresh efforts by the new US administration to reverse Trump’s Iran policy. He warned the Biden administration against rejoining the 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal, which was abandoned by the Trump administration in May 2018, saying such a move “would be bad and not the right thing to do.”

“I instructed the army to prepare a number of operational plans in addition to the existing ones,” Kochavi’s said. “We are taking care of these plans and will develop them during the coming year. Those who decide on carrying them out, of course, are the political leaders. But these plans have to be on the table,” the Israeli general said.

Kochavi’s remarks were met with trenchant criticisms – even among the critics of the nuclear agreement, which was reached during former President Barack Obama’s time in office.

Amos Gilad, a former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, said the threat of military action against Iran was an empty one and such a strike would never happen without the backing of the United States. “You think you would carry out a strike without strategic cooperation with the United States? It will never, ever happen,” Gilad said in an interview on the 103FM radio station on Wednesday. “Understand that these are all just words.” He warned that harsh remarks that contradict the position of the new American administration “could be seen as defiance” by the White House, adding, “That’s not how you lead a policy.”  (PRESS TV)

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BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:20 P.M.) – The spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, Major General Abu Fadl Shikaraji, threatened to “destroy Tel Aviv” in case Israel “makes any mistake” against Iran. “Israel’s threats are part of psychological warfare, and if they are realistic, then they are illusions,” Shkaraji said, adding that the Iranian army “will destroy Tel Aviv and erase it if Israel commits any stupidity against our nuclear facilities.”

“The Israeli army lives in a state of terror and is too weak to carry out its threats on the ground,” he said, adding that “Israel’s threat to destroy our nuclear facilities is just illusions and pipe dreams.” Shkharji stressed that the Iranian army “will destroy the Israeli missile bases as soon as Iran is exposed to any attack,” noting that “the large part of Iran’s military capabilities have not been revealed.”  (AMN)

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“If the Zionists make a foolish move or any mistake, even the slightest one, against Iran, they will face a reaction that will destroy Tel Aviv and hasten the end of their regime,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi told Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam news network. He also said the Iranian Armed Forces have been strengthening their defensive capabilities day by day, and that the country is capable of carrying out strategic operations to level the enemy to the ground.  (PRESS TV)

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These excerpts from Iranian Press TV and Al Masdar News articles capture the current state of play in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian confrontation. Israeli and Iranian verbal chest thumping is at an all time high. If blustery language were bombs, we’d be deep into WW III. However, Gilad is correct. Without US strategic cooperation, there will not be a massive conventional air attack on Iran. And that strategic cooperation is unlikely to be forthcoming under Biden, even though there are still plenty of Borg clowns in this administration just itching for just such an attack. 

Throughout the Obama and Trump administrations the most probable scenarios involved massive US air and missile strikes against Iran to obliterate Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure and bring about regime change. These strikes would be in conjunction with Israeli strikes or reluctantly launched after an insufficient initial Israeli strike. The goal, Israel’s goal, was always to eliminate Iran as a threat to Israel. There was nothing in it for us other than pleasing Israel and risking WW III.

The goal of US administrations was to prevent this, usually by placating Israel in various ways. No one, not Bush, not Obama, nor Trump wanted the US involved in a war against Iran. However, they were all plagued by swarms of Israel Firsters praying, many literally praying, for war. Obama’s approach was the JCPOA. Israel viewed the JCPOA as an existential threat to their goal. Trump had a different approach, trash the JCPOA and embark on a policy of maximum pressure to collapse the regime in Tehran. Like previous administrations, this maximum pressure policy did not envision a massive US air attack.  

Israel decided she could work with this. This became apparent when we learned of another Trump Tower meeting in 2016. This one had nothing to do with Russia. It was all about Iran and how the US, Israel, the UAE and the Saudis would force regime change in Tehran. It included a proposal to create a UAE-Saudi anti-terrorist force that would supplant the need for the US to police the region. Not that bad a plan, really. Getting rid of JCPOA was easy. It was an Obama agreement. Of course Trump would scuttle that. The same for selling weapons and ordnance to the Saudis and UAE. That’s profitable business. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani may or may not have been a part of this maximum pressure policy. 

An important part of this grand plan was a robust regional strategic realignment. Israel’s close military cooperation with the UAE began in the 1990s. It was low key, but extensive. Kushner’s grand Middle East bargain last year just made that official. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) appears to be the true power broker on the Arabian Peninsula rather than the Saudi Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). He was the driving force behind the Abraham Accords. MBZ is a Sandhurst graduate and has built the UAE military and intelligence into competent forces although they are largely foreign. He is measured, pragmatic and sits atop large oil reserves as well as a growing international financial hub. His hand is behind many of the events throughout the Arab world. He is definitely worth watching.

Now back to Israel and Iran. At one time the best Israel hoped for was the unhindered flight of the IAF across Saudi airspace enroute to Iranian targets. That limited hope has morphed into the possibility of the active involvement of UAE and even Saudi bases and forces in an attack on Iran. The addition of fifty F-35s to the UAE Air Force would greatly increase the strike capabilities of the current hundred or so F-16 and Mirage 2000 aircraft. Even though reaching full operational capability would be several years away, I think the IAF would be giddy with anticipation of this possibility in spite of their apprehensions about Arab F-35s. In the meantime, Israel and the UAE are building a joint intelligence base on Socotra. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are cooperating with Israel on missile defense, intelligence sharing, reconnaissance (both airborne and at sea) and cybersecurity. This Israeli-Emerati confidence building and integration will continue as long as MBZ sees it as advantageous.

The Saudi war on the Houthis has not helped Israel. Even though the UAE has pulled out of the conflict, Israel’s closeness to the UAE and growing cooperation with the Saudis have made Israel an active enemy of the Houthi. In response Iran has introduced the Shahed-131 and the more advanced Shahed-136 loitering munition UAVs to the northern Yemeni province of Al-Jawf. The Shahed -136 has an effective range of over 1,200 miles bring southern Israel and Gulf of Aqaba ship traffic within range. In response, Israel has had to station Patriot and Iron Dome AD systems at Eilat - the opening of an unwanted southern front in addition to the constant threat of Hezbollah to the north. This is also whatever missiles and drones Iran may have stationed in Iraq and Syria.

So, how will the Biden administration change Israeli calculations for a strike against Iran? Of primary interest to Israel is Biden’s desire to reenter the JCPOA and improve relations with Tehran. As I alluded to earlier, this is anathema to Israel. Will this make Israel antsy enough to strike? I don’t think so. Biden is also withdrawing support from the Saudi war in Yemen. He halted logistical and munitions support to the Saudis and paused the effort to provide F-35s to the UAE. The latter may even give MBZ pause for further open military cooperation with Israel. He wants those F-35s. We’ll never abandon Israel, but can we be relied on to provide logistical, intelligence and strike support to an Israeli initiated attack on Iran? In my opinion, it is no longer a sure thing.

And then there is Russia. The last thing she wants is an expanded war in the Middle East. Russia has recently signed several agreements to bolster Iranians defenses both air defenses and cyber defenses. Lavrov said that the construction of new units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant was discussed during his recent meeting with his Iranian counterpart. He also said "Russia hopes that the United States will return to the JCPOA and that this will be a condition for Iran to implement the JCPOA" and that "Moscow will continue its efforts to ensure that Iran and the United States fully comply with their obligations to the JCPOA in the near future." Russia’s demonstrated expertise in radio-electronic combat should make Israel think twice about a first strike. Not only would this expertise bolster Iran’s defenses, but Russia could hamper Israel’s strike capabilities from her bases in Syria and her ships in the Mediterranean. Russia would not sit this one out. 

In my opinion, an Israeli strike on Iran is not imminent. Nor is it in the cards in at least the next several years. Israel has to be sure of a convincing victory. A draw would further damage Israel’s aura of invincibility. Without that, Israel’s best and brightest will fly away leaving nothing but Talmudic scholars and angry Palestinians to hash things out. There will be conflict as well as more big talk and selling of wolf tickets like I posted at the top of this article. The political maneuvering will continue. Military capabilities will continue to be developed. The intelligence conflict will continue. The cyber conflict will continue. All this will continue until something breaks… one way or the other.

TTG 

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/29/644100/Israeli-figures-slam-Kochavi-empty-rhetoric

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iranian-army-spokesman-threatens-to-destroy-tel-aviv-if-israel-attacks-irans-nuclear-facilities/

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/28/644011/Iran-Israel-threat-Dehqan-Shekarchi 

       

IMO Iran will wait for Biden

A journo friend called yesterday to ask my opinion about the course of near term events regarding Iran.

The murder of a senior Iranian scientist at the weekend may have been done by Israel or the United States or both in cooperation.  He may or may not have been the "father" of an actual Iranian MILITARY nuclear program as opposed to a CIVILIAN electric power focused program.

In the 2007 NIE on Iran the USIC would not commit publicly to the existence of such a military program and they never have since.  The theory of the case then was that Khamenei ordered an end to an experimental military program after the occupation of Iraq by the US and the destruction of the Iraqi government.  Khamenei published a fatwa stating that such a program was an evil thing and was no longer needed as a deterrent against Iraq.  

The subsequent US/Israeli focus on a putative Iranian nuclear weapons program was IMO an artifact of the Israeli/Cheney/Ziocon fascination with their 1% theory of strategy.  Stated simply, this is the concept that if anything can possibly threaten you, even at a  1% level of probability, then you should seek to crush it.

On that basis the Israelis have long wanted Iran crushed.  They have lacked the means to do it themselves unless they want to use the nuclear weapons they pretend not to have.  They evidently do not want to do that and so their long yearned for solution is that the stupid but strong Americans do it for them with perhaps a minor supporting role for themselves just so that they can claim afterward that they did all the hard bits.

In that context the death of the Iranian savant is easy to see as a provocation intended to bring on an Iranian attack which could be used to goad Trump into a grand finale effort against Iran.

The USS Nimitz Battle Group is in the area with all its wondrous  planes and missile shooting ships.  The US has been moving JDAM shooting B-52s into the region for a week.  Things like the B-2 bomber and B-1B are on call from far away.  Someone has been setting the stage for ...?  Who knows?  I doubt that it is Trump.  He has shown himself to be long on talk, and short on actual shooting.

Are the Iranians dumb enough to take the bait?  I doubt it.  All they have to do is wait for Joe, Blinken et al to take over and they are likely to get something very like JCPOA.  pl 

“What Syria withdrawal? There was never a Syria withdrawal,” Jeffrey said.

" ... even as he praises the president’s support of what he describes as a successful “realpolitik” approach to the region, he acknowledges that his team routinely misled senior leaders about troop levels in Syria. 

“We were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there,” Jeffrey said in an interview. The actual number of troops in northeast Syria is “a lot more than” the roughly two hundred troops Trump initially agreed to leave there in 2019.    Defense One

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"We?"  Who are "We?"  

State Department people?  Well, certainly some of those were involved.

But ... IMO it would not have been possible to deceive or mislead the WH and specifically the Commander in Chief without the active cooperation of CENTCOM, the JCS and OSD.

If they had not been participating in the lying, it would have been obvious in any number of interactions with President Trump that the president's understanding of  troop numbers in Syria was not correct and that he was being deceived by "we." (whoever that was).  That revelation evidently did not happen.  The NSC staff should have detected the lack of truth in reported numbers.  That it did not tells me that at least some of the NSC staff were disloyal to Trump.  Obvious?  Yes, but that is worth re-stating. 

James Jeffrey is quite proud of his achievement in maintaining a "realpolik" stalemate in Syria, one that stymies both Russia and the Syrian government.  

IMO opinion he is revealed by his own words as a treacherous back stabber.  "Un hombre sin honor."  pl

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/11/outgoing-syria-envoy-admits-hiding-us-troop-numbers-praises-trumps-mideast-record/170012/

Gulfies on the Temple Mount? Haaretz

"When Israel and Bahrain announced the normalization of relations, their joint statement included the affirmation by Israel affirmed that "all Muslims who come in peace may visit and pray at the Al-Asqa Mosque." 

The Old City of Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa compound, also known as the Haram al-Sharif and to Jews as the Temple Mount, is the third holiest pilgrimage site in Islam after Mecca and Medina, marking the destination of Muhammed's night journey in Muslim tradition. In theory, Muslim pilgrims who land at Ben-Gurion Airport, Israel will within an hour will be able to visit Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem and pray at the Al-Aqsa mosque."  Haaretz

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Over the decades I have asked various Muslims if they want to visit Al-Quds and the Al-Aqsa mosque.  The answer is always "yes."  

Then I ask them if they are willing to enter Israel through Ben Gurion airport, clear Israeli immigration and travel cross country to Jerusalem where the Jews rule.  The answer is always "no."

The same applies to an entry and passage overland from the Jordan River.

This should be really interesting.  pl 

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-gulf-pilgrims-are-about-to-upset-the-status-quo-at-al-aqsa-1.9207270

"... the Israeli Victory Is Nearly Complete." Amira Hass

"Twenty years later, the Israeli victory is nearly complete: The well-planned armed robbery of Palestinian land goes on daily unhindered. The model that Israel created in Gaza is being copied in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and translated into something akin to “Pales of Settlement” which, as long as they don’t show signs of fury and rebellion, are of no interest to the Jews in Israel, the supreme ruler."  Amira Hass

Author Bio:  Amira Hass is the Haaretz correspondent for the Occupied Territories.  Born in Jerusalem in 1956, Hass joined Haaretz in 1989, and has been in her current position since 1993. As the correspondent for the territories, she spent three years living in Gaza, which served of the basis for her widely acclaimed book, "Drinking the Sea at Gaza." She has lived in the West Bank city of Ramallah since 1997.

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Yet further evidence of the actual paucity of my knowledge of Israel is the sad truth that I had never heard of Amira Hass until I noticed this article in Haaretz today.  The daughter of two survivors of the Shoa, one Sephardi and the other Ashkenazi, she has clearly devoted her life to truth telling in the matter of systemic Israeli abuse of the Palestinian people.  She has lived for long periods in Gaza and Ramallah.  My. My.  I am impressed.  pl

www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-twenty-years-after-the-second-intifada-the-israeli-victory-is-nearly-complete-1.9195532

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amira

Bibi admits that the UAE/Israel deal is based on a lie. AMN

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he has not agreed to remove the issue of the extension of Israeli sovereignty over lands in the West Bank and will not relinquish it.

Netanyahu said during a speech on Thursday evening, “The American president asked me to wait on the extension of Israeli sovereignty over more lands.”"  AMN

"There is no change in our policies in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank),” he said."  AMN

"He stressed that “Israel will have comprehensive peace agreements with other Arab countries without returning to the 1967 borders.”

He explained that “the normalization agreement with the Emirates includes reciprocal tourism and direct flights from Tel Aviv to Abu Dhabi.”

"He stated that “Abu Dhabi will make huge investments in Israel.”"  AMN

"For his part, Crown Prince Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed announced that “it was agreed to stop Israel’s annexation of the Palestinian lands.”""  AMN

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Well then, you've been had, Your Preciousness.  You have been had.  If you have any decency, you will withdraw from this lying agreement.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israel-is-not-giving-up-on-annexing-west-bank-netanyahu/

OPCW members denounce report on Syria. thegrayzone

"On April 8, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons released a report by its newly formed Investigation and Identification Team, a unit ostensibly established to identify alleged perpetrators of chemical weapons attacks in Syria. The IIT investigation examined three alleged incidents in the Syrian town of Ltamenah in March 2017. It concluded “that there are reasonable grounds to believe” that the Syrian army committed a sarin attack in two of the incidents, and a chlorine attack in the third.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo praised the IIT probe, calling it “the latest in a large and growing body of evidence that the Assad regime uses chemical weapons attacks in Syria as part of a deliberate campaign of violence against the Syrian people. The United States shares the OPCW’s conclusions.”

But missing from Pompeo’s remarks and the ensuing U.S. media coverage across the spectrum is the crisis of credibility consuming the OPCW and its senior leadership. The IIT report’s tenuous conclusion “that there are reasonable grounds to believe” the official version of events closely resembles the conclusion of an earlier OPCW report that is now the subject of major controversy and derision. A series of leaks show that OPCW leaders suppressed the findings of inspectors who probed another much more consequential alleged Syrian chemical attack, in the city of Douma in April 2018, which triggered US airstrikes.

The evidence collected in Douma undermined allegations of Syrian government guilt and strongly suggested a staged event by the armed opposition. Leaked internal OPCW emails and documents show that the Douma investigators protested the censorship of their findings, setting off an unfolding cover-up scandal that has called the OPCW’s impartiality into question.

The Grayzone has published a series of leaks from the OPCW’s Douma scandal, and plans to reveal new material that further undermines the official story. The article below reveals how the dissension within the OPCW ranks extends well beyond the Douma investigation.

Here, OPCW insiders offer a withering critique of the IIT report, blasting it as another hyper-politicized piece of bunk. The Grayzone can verify that the authors represent the view of, at minimum, a small group of current and former OPCW officials who took part in its drafting and review. "  thegrayzone

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Well, pilgrims, Pompey likes this report.  Of course he does!  IMO he set up the IIT to produce such a result replete with material that can be used to program Trump for further aggression against the Syrian Government.

As Mr. Jefferson wrote, "I fear for my country when I remember that God is just."  He was speaking of Virginia and slavery, but, you get the idea.  pl

https://thegrayzone.com/2020/04/28/opcw-insiders-ltamenah-chemical-weapons-report/

"Iran’s IRGC to receive new stealth drone with 2,000km range" AMN

"The drone is said to have a 7,600 meter flight ceiling, and the ability to be armed with precision-guided air-to-surface missiles or anti-tank missiles.

The drone’s outward appearance seems to be in line with design concepts found in many Western high-tech drone designs, including a bulbous nose similar to that of the US Predator drone, presumably containing the UAV’s avionics."  AMN

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This thing was supposed to have been dropped as a project at the prototype stage in 2013.  Now it is back as an equipment to be acquired in some undisclosed number by the IRGC.  Some will argue that the Iranians are bluffing.  If so, it is a good bluff.

When combined with something like the Qader anti-ship missile this could be a formidable anti-ship weapon system.

I presume that the US Navy and DIA are paying attention to this.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/irans-irgc-to-receive-new-stealth-drone-with-2000km-range/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAIO_Fotros

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qader_(missile)

A few thoughts - 24 April 2020

1.  IMO the US Navy will be doing a good thing if it persuades Trump to restore Captain Crozier to command of USS Theodore Roosevelt.  He did a very foolish thing by appealing to the whole wide world to support his position, but he did have the best interest of the ship's company in mind and as he said, we are not at war in the Pacific.   This would also be a humane decision on the part of the navy toward an officer in command, something unusual for them.

2.  IMO the medico bureaucrat academicians who insist that their group think about how to stop a pandemic are going to be discredited as it becomes clear that COVID-19 is wildly infectious but at the same time not very fatal except for the old, infirm and others compromised in health.  That would include HIV/AIDS sufferers.  You don't hear much about that, but IMO that is because such people are typically members of the LGBTQ "community" and therefore members of a protected group.  In pursuit of the power of policy dictation the doctor philosopher kings have contributed mightily to the near death of the greatest world economy in history (ours).  Let us hope the more sensible state governors can do enough to remedy this disaster to bring back some measure of prosperity.  I hope that Trump realizes that he does not have constitutional power over the governors.  As I have previously written he would have to declare states he targeted to be in rebellion or say that they had lost the power to govern themselves in order to have a claim to that sort of power.

3.  US foreign policy in the greater ME remains the shambles that Zionist and/or neocon infiltration of government and manipulation of election funding have made it.   There is little difference in responsibility  for this in the two major political parties.  As a result of Trump's continuation of the Israel inspired policy of meddling in the affairs of the Islamic culture continent the US now finds itself in a position in which policies of domination have caused us to have a thousand or so US military "hostages" scattered across NE Syria and all over Iraq where they are completely vulnerable to attack from Iran and its allies.  

4.  This potential hostage posture is a major inhibition to US freedom of action in the Gulf where Iranian aggressiveness is targeted toward a withdrawal of the US Navy from the Gulf.  IMO such a forced withdrawal caused by a minor power like Iran because we are afraid to fight would be a major milestone in the decline of America's power in the world.  Our enemies would rejoice.  IMO the navy can easily defeat any Iranian enemy but the hostage situation in Syria, and Iraq is a major impediment to naval action.  We should get out of those two countries. We should not have been there in the first place.   I am clearly on record about that from 2001 onward.  In the case of Afghanistan the hinge of fate swung in 2009 with Obama's disastrous decision to let the COIN generals persuade him to try to build a new and modern Afghanistan.  The resulting state has expenses for its security forces that are greater than its GDP.

5.  Some constitutional mechanism must be developed in the US for forcing the retirement from office of old people who are judged to be demented.  The ice cream interview comes to mind.  pl

 

The Idlib cease-fire is already disintegrating.

"On March 15, the Russian Military Police and Turkish forces conducted first joint patrol in southern Idlib. According to agreements reached in Moscow, the patrol was set to be conducted along the part of the M4 highway, where a buffer zone had to be establsihed. This included the withdrawal of heavy weapons and radical armed groups (al-Qaeda & friends) from the area. However, this did not happen. Furthermore, the countryside of Jisr al-Shughur remains the stronghold of the al-Qaeda-linked Turkistan Islamic Party.

So, Ankara and Moscow decided to conduct a limited patrol west of Saraqib to avoid an expected escalation and attacks on the patrol. Even this effort did not go without difficulties. Turkish forces failed to reopen the M4 highway (blocked by militant supporters) and the patrol took place only in a few km west of the government-controlled town of Sraqib (on the crossroad of the M5 and M4 highways."  SF

https://southfront.org/turkish-troops-fail-to-secure-m4-highway-ahead-of-joint-patrol-with-russian-forces-patrol-is-limited-to-a-few-km-only-photos-videos/

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Per the cease fire agreement between the Russians and Turks, the jihadis are supposed to withdraw their force from the area south of the M-4 that they still hold and from the entire de-militarized buffer zone on both sides of the road.  They evidently haven't done any of that and the SAA is refitting its units and preparing to resume the offensive against them.  This "ceasefire" was never going to be more than an operational pause from the POV of the SAA and their friends like the Quds Brigade (Palestinians).

the Turks having been doing their best to make the cease-fire line into a permanent border but this concept is clearly falling apart when faced by jihadi intransigence.

The extent to which the nasty little US neocons are involved in Idlib is unclear to me.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jihadist-rebels-refuse-to-withdraw-from-m-4-highway-idlib-offensive-looms/

"we will be violent to the kuffar. Like in Syria.” Tayyip Erdogan

"Contemporary Turkish Calls for Jihad

On October 25, 2019, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the Friday prayers at the Great Çamlıca Mosque in Istanbul.

He was accompanied by Istanbul’s governor Ali Yerlikaya, mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s chief of police Mustafa Çalışkan and the head of the Istanbul branch of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Bayram Şenocak. After the prayers, the hafiz of the mosque recited the Koranic Verse Al-Fath, which means “victory, triumph, conquest”.

Then, Erdogan took the microphone and recited a part of the verse first in Arabic and then in Turkish.

He told the crowd:
Our God commands us to be violent towards the kuffar (infidels). Who are we? The ummah [nation] of Mohammed. So [God] also commands us to be merciful to each other. So we will be merciful to each other. And  

Erdogan then referred to another Koranic verse, As-Saff-13, in Arabic:

Inshallah, God has promised us in Syria: ‘Nasrun minallahi ve fethun karib ve beşşiril mu’minin.’ [‘Victory from Allah and an imminent conquest; and give good tidings to the believers’]. We see it is happening right now. With the permission of Allah, we will see it even more… I will meet some presidents of foreign countries [Russian and Iranian] at the Dolmabahce Palace today. I ask for your permission now to go there.”

The congregants then cheered Erdogan on, shouting “Allahu Akbar” (Allah is great). "  Yaakov Apelbaum

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This is from Yaakov Apelbaum's article on the Ottoman Declaration of a Jihad in 1914.  As I have repeatedly reminded the pilgrim horde, the Ottoman sultan was also caliph and commander of the Sunni 'umma (Islamic community).  The fatwa declaring jihad was intended to cause rebellions among the Muslim subject population of the British and French empires.  This was only moderately effective.

It is nevertheless instructive to have the words of Sultan Tayyip the Great's sentiments toward the kuffar.    The kuffar are we, his NATO allies.  pl

https://apelbaum.wordpress.com/2019/12/31/turkeys-1914-jihad-against-the-armenians-greeks-jews-and-albanians/

The Sultan's wandering eye.

Sultan Fatih Tayyip, restorer of Sunni triumphalism, has proposed to the heir of the Romanov House that the Turks and Russians assume management of the Syrian oil and gas fields east of the Euphrates River.  Having triumphed in Idlib he now wishes to accept his responsibilities for this newly remembered portion of the Ottoman patrimony.

It is not clear what Russia's reaction to this proposal might be.

Sultan Tayyip says that he might make this same proposal to President Trump (America's greatest or near greatest president).  General Jack Keane, Trump's friend, can advise him.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/erdogan-wants-to-jointly-manage-syrias-oil-fields/

HTS has killed the "cease fire."

"Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has officially rejected the recent Russian-Turkish agreement on Greater Idlib, vowing to keep on fighting.
In an official statement, the terrorist group claimed that the agreement would allow the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces to resume military operation in the region. The group also noted that most of the agreement’s terms are “not implementable.”
“This agreement is tinged with ambiguity and loose, floating phrases that allow the Russian occupier to use it for aggression again, and there are also terms that cannot be implemented at all, in face, they are considered an insult and humiliation of the blood of the martyrs and the sacrifices of ten continuous years,” HTS’ statement, which was released on March 7, reads.
The terrorist group also thanked the Turkish government for directly engaging in the recent battle against the SAA and its allies in Greater Idlib
HTS concluded its statement by vowing to fight on against the SAA and its allies, promising that there will be “no peace or security” until the Syrian government is overthrown."  SF

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As I expected. this cease fire is merely a pause in the Idlib Province struggle.  HTS (al-Qa'ida) rejects the cease fire.  Therefore there is no cease fire.  The SAA and allies will use he pause to re-fit and rest units bloodied in the recent fighting and then a pretext will allow R+6 to resume operations intended to clear Idlib of the jihadis and Turks.  How long will the pause last.  It is impossible to say.  The frustration and rage of the war party in Washington and London must be impressive.

All the conspiracy minded drivel now being sent to SST is laughable. The situation is really quite simple.  Erdogan can hardly wait to fulfill his "destiny" as Sultan Caliph and mahdi of the Sunni world and his fantasy of a Europe included in the 'umma.  HTS is uninterested in his fantasy.  They have their own fantasy to fulfill.  pl 

https://southfront.org/surprise-al-qaedas-hts-rejects-russian-turkish-agreement-on-greater-idlib-vows-to-fight-on/

https://southfront.org/damascus-aleppo-highway-open-again-for-traffic-photos/

https://southfront.org/russian-forces-seized-toxic-chemicals-from-turkish-backed-militants-near-syrias-saraqib-report/

«Erdogan leads a panislamist and neo-ottoman project that must be fought urgently» Le Figaro

(Mezri Haddad)

 

We have this translation from the French text courtesy of Phillipe Boileau who lives at Montreal.  pl

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FIGAROVOX/TRIBUNE – The philosopher Mezri Haddad analyses Turkish president Erdogan’s foreign policy. Erdogan aims, in Haddad's  view, to transform Turkey into an anti-Western power on the basis of the conflict of civilisations model of Samuel Huntington.

This essay was published the 3rd of March 2020 at 10:37, and updated the 4th of march 2020 at 01:53 in Le Figaro.

Mezri Haddad is a philosopher and president of the ‘Centre international de géopolitique et de prospective analytique CIGPA’ (International center of geopolitics and analytical prospective)

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Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been scheming against European countries for a long time. For the second time since 2015, he has carried out his blackmail of migratory flooding by opening his land and sea borders with Greece to thousands of Syrian, Afghan, Iraqi, Pakistani, Somali refugees. Among them, there are certainly terrorist infiltrators who have shaved their beards or shed their burkas. This migration is his "nuclear" deterrent, a human pipeline intended to subject the European Union to pan-Islamism and expansionist oukases [Arbitrary decision, imperative order].

The message of the Istanbul satrap [bureaucrat in a negative sense] is perfectly clear: "To safeguard the borders of Europe, either the Europeans pay me (Erdogan) even more money by supporting me militarily in my war against Damascus alongside my Islamic-terrorist mercenaries, or I pour on her thousands of Syrian hostages who dream of the European Eldorado." For, as far as Syrians are concerned, they are indeed hostages that the Turkish regime has long prevented from returning to their towns and villages pacified and liberated by the Syrian army from the barbarity of Daesh, Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra...

Idlib province is one of the last terrorist strongholds that the Erdogan regime has supported since the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring. The Arab spring’s impacts are now being measured in the aggregation of political, geopolitical, humanitarian, socio-economic and security aspects not only in Syria but also in Libya, Yemen and Tunisia. Tunisia being the most ‘successful’ in its spring by entrusting the reality of power to the servants of Erdogan that are the Muslim Brotherhood! The liberation of Idlib is at the root of this new and very serious migration crisis. Idlib province is the most advanced post of irregular Turkish troops (jihadists) in Syrian territory. In his defense of these terrorists, the Turkish autocrat invoked security and even "humanitarian" reasons, hundreds of inhabitants of these provinces who had fallen under the yoke of theocratic totalitarianism who could flee the war and take refuge in Turkey, like the 4 million Syrians already exiled to the country. Erdogan's deception is useless because it is himself who prevents Syrian refugees from returning to their villages, and who keeps them as a bargaining chip and leverage over Europe. Before carrying out his threats, Erdogan justified his plan to occupy Syrian territories by making Europeans believe that, rather than being invaded by thousands of Syrian refugees, it would be better for them to entrust Turkey’s neo-Ottoman mission to confine these refugees to Idlib and Aleppo.
But European leaders are no longer fooled. Even if it took them a long time to understand it, they now know that the Turkish regime has forged close links with the major terrorist organizations that were rampant in Iraq and Syria and whose ramifications go as far as Europe. At his joint conference in London with Donald Trump on December 3, 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron had the courage to declare: "When I look at Turkey, it now fights those (Kurds) who fought with us, alongside us against the Islamic state. Sometimes the Turks work with IS intermediaries. It's a problem and it's a strategic problem... The common enemy today are terrorist groups and I am sorry that we do not have the same definition of terrorism."

Would counter-battery attacks in Syria or Turkey trigger NATO Article Five? -revision 1

 

"This map provides a general look at the recent gains by Turkish-led forces in southern Idlib. The Turkish Army and its al-Qaeda-linked allies have retaken several villages from the Syrian army and beiseged the town of Kafr Nabul, which the Syrians had recently liberated from al-Qaeda."  SF

https://southfront.org/map-update-advances-of-turkish-led-forces-in-southern-idlib/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Turkish_Land_Forces

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IMO the gains made by the jihadis and the Turkish Army in Idlib Province are being made because of the masses of artillery weapons and multiple launcher rocket systems (MLRS) that the Turks were equipped with when they were a major factor in NATO plans to halt a possible Soviet attack in the Balkans and from the Caucasus.

A lot of these weapons are old but they still work well and have ranges that can influence the fighting in Syria from positions WITHIN Hatay Province, Turkey (what the Russians now call "the stolen province").   We are talking about 203 MM howitzers and 175 mm long rifles among other weapons.  I can tell you from personal experience that these are devastating weapons.

The appropriate military response to fires from such artillery and MLRS is COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE.  IOW the point of origin of the fires is determined virtually instantaneously by counter-battery radar or satellite observation (Russian) and fires are placed on the firing positions before the guns or MLRS can be moved.  This procedure would kill a lot of Turks and destroy a lot of their equipment.  IMO it would stop the present Turkish counter-offensive.  Could Fatih Sultan Tayyip politically survive such an experience?  Only Allah knows.

The NATO Treaty's Article Five provides for mutual defense against attacks from outside the alliance.  Would counter-battery fire against the Turks, if they are  firing into Syria, trigger Article Five?  I doubt that the Europeans would want to go to war against Russia to protect the sultan's ambitions.  Counter-battery fir against Turkish artillery operating INSIDE Syria would no be a political problem involving NATO.

The Turks must have moved some guns forward into Syria to support the Turco/jihadi force around Saraqib.  Some other group of heavy weapons  must be supporting the Turco/jihadi force near the northern el-Ghaab Plain.  Are they in Syria?  Maybe, but wherever they are, IMO they can be struck without fear of Article Five.

Would the Syrians then be attacked by US forces with or without Article Five?  Maybe they would be.  That would depend on the level of Pompeo's influence with the president.  pl 

Mr President! Pompeo wants a US War in Syria!

“This was and remains a bad idea,” said one of the people familiar with the discussions.  Turkey and the U.S. have a history when it comes to the Patriot. Over Washington's objections, Ankara last year received an advanced Russian S-400 missile-defense system that the U.S. considers a threat to the F-35 fighter jet and NATO air defenses. The U.S. had offered the Patriot as an alternative, but Turkey has committed to the Russian system. As a result, Washington kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program, for which it was both a customer and manufacturing partner.  A DoD spokesperson declined to comment. A spokesperson for Jeffrey referred POLITICO to a statement from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who on Friday condemned the attack and called on the Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian backers to cease their assault on Idlib. He noted that the U.S. is “reviewing options to assist Turkey against this aggression.”""  politico

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Idlib Governorate is Syrian territory.  The Syrian government is a member state of the UN.  The Russians are assisting the Syrian government at the request of that government.   "Fatih" Sultan Erdogan has introduced thousands of Turkish Army troops into northern Syria in what amounts to a neo-Ottoman land grab.

He has a major problem in that so far, neither the Turkish Army (TSK) nor their Sunni jihadi allies are fighting very well.  They have managed to re-capture the town of Saraqib on the four lane highway between Damascus and Aleppo, but for how long?  The SAA and their militia allies are massing to re-take the town.

To the west nearly all of Idlib Governorate south of the M-4 east-west highway is within artillery fire of the advancing SAA and at the northern end of the al-Ghaab Plain the spearheads are apparently within 6 miles of the M-4.  Assuming that the M-4 is the Turkish Main Supply Route (MSR) out of Hatay Province to the west, an SAA interdiction of that major road will imperil the Turkish led force around  Saraqib.  The Turks will then either withdraw from Saraqib or attack any SAA blockage of  the M-4 or both. In classic militaryspeak, the Turks would be said to have been "turned out" of their position at Saraqib by the SAA move onto the M-4 to the west.  The resulting engagement would be a desperate fight.  In the midst of this situation the Russian Aerospace expeditionary force would be heavily engaged.  

Mike Pompeo, Jeffrey, his henchman, and all the neocons in and out of the Borg (foreign policy establishment) want the US to become directly involved in this battle by providing Turkish forces in Syria air defense from US manned Patriot missile batteries.  The Turks could not man the systems themselves if we provided them.  They also want the US to declare a "no-fly zone" over Idlib Governorate.  Such a zone would be a declaration that the US and little friends would shoot down any military aircraft flying over this piece of Syrian territory without US permission.  This would be an act of war by the United States and would cause a de facto state of war to exist between the US and Russia.

The US Department of Defense thinks that such engagement on our part is a stupid neocon conception that has it roots in Israeli desire to destroy the Syrian Government, preferring to have a zone of warring factions where Syria once was, a Hobbesian scene of desolation and a war of all against all,  The Israeli idea is as stupid as that of the neocons.

President Trump, the Commander in Chief of the US armed forces, holds the sole power to decide.  Let us hope that he decides well.  pl 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/turkey-patriot-missiles-pentagon-118256

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turning_movement

Arab League condemns the "deal of the century"

"The Arab League rejected Trump's plan, saying in a communique it would not lead to a just peace deal and adding it will not cooperate with the United States to execute the plan.
The ministers affirmed Palestinian rights to create a future state based on the land captured and occupied by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war, with East Jerusalem as capital, the final communique said.
Israeli officials expressed hope Saturday that the League's rejection could bring the U.S. closer to green-lighting unilateral annexation of parts of the West Bank, in light of the fact that Jared Kushner opposed immediate steps toward annexation because he thought the Arab League might support the plan. "  Haaretz

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Well, pilgrims, the truth is that nobody in the States who matters gives a damn about what happens to the Palestinians and it was always thus.  Kushner's "peace plan" is just another real estate scam.  pl

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/arab-foreign-ministers-meet-in-cairo-to-discuss-trump-s-mideast-plan-1.8475812

"Free at last!" Brexit, etc.

Brexit.  This is it!  Freedom for the UK!  It took the Irish 700 years to achieve independence for part of their island, but here it is for the UK in only 47 years.  The Scots may depart, preferring the yoke of Brussels, but then, the English and Welsh care not.  Brave souls.  Trumpy will be acquitted in his first senate trial today or maybe tomorrow and will announce the commencement of negotiations for the "greatest trade deal of all time" with Boris, his English doppelganger.  There is the pesky little matter of the British NHS, but some way around that problem will be found.  A US/British trade deal is obviously on the "right side of history."  pl

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/brexit-news-nigel-farage-gloats-eu-parliament-sings-goodbye-to-united-kingdom-2020-01-31/

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Israel/Palestine.  Recommend the linked article below on the multitudinous defects of the "deal of the century."  It mirrors my thinking and so must be a work of genius.  pl

https://prospect.org/world/dont-call-it-a-peace-plan-israel-palestine-trump/

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Turkish Policy.  IMO the Turks have decided that they don't want to fight the R+6 for a piece or all of Idlib Province in Syria.  They haven't really fought anyone since the Korean War and contrary to civilian delusions war is not just a matter of who has the most and biggest toys.  Practice counts a lot.  And, even Erdo may realize that the number and depth of the purges he has inflicted on the Turkish officer corps have certainly caused a decline in the quality of the force.  It is noticeable that when confronted up close by R+6 forces the Turks shy from actual combat.  I remain convinced that a lot of Turkish ambition in Syria is fueled by neo-Ottoman irredentism.  Syria was part of the empire for hundreds of years and the same thing is true of Libya until the Senussi Sufi order's revolt against Ottoman rule in 1911.  Turkey is now exporting pet jihadis from Syria to Libya.  Sounds like they are beginning to give up on long term acquisitions in Syria.  pl 

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/turkey-deployment-libya-threat-escalation-russia-townsend.html

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SpaceX TV and Space voyeurism.  One of the marvels of the modern world is the ability to watch rocket launches into earth orbit on Space X's TeeVee  channel.  You can follow the whole process from the count-down to first stage recovery to delivery of the payload to orbit on Space X Tee Vee live.   https://www.spacex.com/

And … You can get a free app for your phone at the App Store that will notify you when the next launch is ready.  pl 

Flash! Trump has solved the Israeli-Palestinian problem. (irony)

Bibi Natanyahu was formally indicted today back home in Israel but he and Sarah were there in the WH to celebrate their victory by joining Trump in making a deal over the heads of the Palestinians.

The Palestinians are offered very little in this final reconciliation between the US and the forces of Zionisn within and without the US.  If the sons and daughters of Ishmael (look it up) behave and cooperate with their Israeli guardians, they will be rewarded with development money intended to comfort them in their helotry.  Trump did say to Bibi at the ceremony that Bibi would have the Palestinian money with which to influence future events, but perhaps that was merely clumsy.  Trump also referred to "Israel's Holy Land."  I suppose that still leaves open the possibility of "religious tourism" as the Israelis call pilgrimage?

In Trump's plan Israel will forever control a strip of territory along the Jordanian border as sovereign to themselves.  But, in return the Palestinian "state" might receive an embassy from the US, located in "eastern" Jerusalem.  I suppose that would be out in that valley to the east that the mandatory British government included as being within the boundaries of Jerusalem.

Trump seems really to think that Palestinians are like stray dogs who will lick your hand if you give them something, anything, to eat.  Perhaps that is the general attitude in New York City.  

Mahmoud Abbas has stated that his side will not accept this, but at least there is peace between the US and Israel.  pl

The ME may yet destroy Trump

President Trump will easily be acquitted in the senate trial.  This may occur this week and there will probably be no witnesses called.  That will be an additional victory for him and will add to the effect of his trade deal victories and the general state of the US economy.  These factors should point to a solid victory in November for him and the GOP in Congress.

Ah!  Not so fast the cognoscenti may cry out.  Not so fast.  The Middle East is a graveyard of dreams:

1.  Iraq.  Street demonstrations in Iraq against a US alliance are growing more intense.  There may well have been a million people in Muqtada al-Sadr's extravaganza.  Shia fury over the death of Soleimani is quite real.  Trump's belief that in a contest of the will he will prevail over the Iraqi Shia is a delusion, a delusion born of his narcissistic personality and his unwillingness to listen to people who do not share his delusions.  A hostile Iraqi government and street mobs would make life unbearable for US forces there. 

2.  Syria.  The handful of American troops east and north of the Euphrates "guarding" Syrian oil from the Syrian government are in a precarious position with the Shia Iraqis at their backs across the border and a  hostile array of SAA, Turks, jihadis and potentially Russians to their front and on their flanks.

3.  Palestine.  The "Deal of the Century" is approaching announcement.  From what is known of its contours, the deal will kill any remaining prospects for Palestinian statehood and will relegate all Palestinians (both Israeli citizens and the merely occupied) to the status of helots forever .  Look it up.  In return the deal will offer the helotry substantial bribes in economic aid money.  Trump evidently continues to believe that Palestinians are untermenschen .  He believe they will sell their freedom. The Palestinian Authority has already rejected this deal.  IMO their reaction to the imposition of this regime is likely to be another intifada.

Some combination of the disasters that may emerge from these ME factors might well turn Trump's base against him and this result would be entirely of his own making.  pl

Macgregor got it part right on Carlson's show last night

Colonel (ret.) Douglas Macgregor was on Tucker Carlson's show last night.  He is a smart man.  Tucker is a smart man. Carlson's show is an outpost of sanity in a neocon run US foreign policy establishment (the Borg).  Carlson deserves the ratings he gets.  I hope those will insulate him from the trepidation that his honesty must inspire in the Murdoch brothers.  The rest of Foxnews is much like a clown car show with the clowns clamoring for the approbation of the White House in their eagerness for a neocon war of conquest in the ME.  Some people never learn.  the last 20 years of disaster in the face of Islamic resistance to Western cultural imperialism have taught them nothing.

Trump started his term as an empty headed business hustler eager to make deals wherever he could and who correctly did not see much of anything to be gained by fighting endlessly all over the Islamic World to impose Israel's 1% policy of eliminating all possible threats from the Muslims.

Trump offered Iran peace negotiations in his post Iran strike speech?  No.  He did not.  He once again offered them the opportunity to surrender to Israeli demands relayed to them by the US.

Now, he is transformed into just another neocon, in fact the neocon in chief.  His foreign policy team is run by neocons and bootlickers who fear Pompeo's scorn.  The Defense part of that team is dominated by the Pompous one and his West Point classmate Esper at DoD.  General Milley and the other present chiefs of staff are carefully chosen to eliminate the possibility of "push-back" from the military. I retract anything bad I ever said about Joe Dunford.  I wish he were still here.

Trump is following the neocon/Ziocon line now.  He evidently believes any silly thing they tell him.  I understand that he has said that Soleimani was engaged in beheading Christians.  Well, pilgrims, if you look below about three posts you  will see a video of Soleimani and al-Muhandis being mourned by Christian clergy and congregations in Aleppo.  Of course, you actually have to understand some Arabic to get that from the video.  These Christians mourn these men as being among those who came to fight the Sunni jihadis at Aleppo.

Macgregor rightly understands that there is no there, there for the USA in the Middle East and Central Asia.  He correctly understands that to try to sort out all the intra-regional ethnic and sectarian rivalries is a fool's errand.  He correctly advocates complete withdrawal from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as does Tulsi Gabbard who was on the same show.

What Macgregor got wrong is that he wants to remain engaged in; Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the GCC generally.  Well, Doug, there is no there, there either.  There is no Soviet threat.  The USA is a net oil and gas exporter.  The Iranians have enemies and quarrels with the Saudis and the Israelis, but, so what?  We are not Israelis.  Neither are we Saudis.

You want to stay engaged in Yemen?  the country is full of nasty little hill men who live to fight.  This is a Saudi problem.

Let all the crazed creatures of that part of the world fight it out.  along the way they will come to muddled partial solutions that will last until the next round of hostility begins.  Tant pis pour eux.  pl

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-iraq-iran-donald-trump-leave-war

Soleimani and Al-Muhandis are being mourned in Aleppo churches

(Tehran Armenian Cathedral)

Mike Pompeo was on the TeeVee today scoffing at those who do not agree with him and the Ziocon inspired "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran.  It must be a terrible thing for intelligence analysts of integrity and actual Middle East knowledge and experience to have to try to brief him and Trump, people who KNOW, KNOW from some superior source of knowledge that Iran is the worst threat to the world since Nazi Germany, or was it Saddam's Iraq that was the worst threat since "beautiful Adolf?"

The "maximum pressure" campaign is born of Zionist terrors, terrors deeply felt.  It is the same kind of campaign that has been waged by the Israelis against the Palestinians and all other enemies great and small.  This approach does not seem to have done much for Israel.  The terrors are still there.

Someone sent me the news tape linked below from Aleppo in NW Syria.  I have watched it a number of times.  You need some ability in Arabic to understand it.  The tape was filmed in several Christian churches in Aleppo where these two men (Soleimani and al-Muhandis) are described from the pulpit and in the street as "heroic martyr victims of criminal American state terrorism."  Pompeo likes to describe Soleimani as the instigator of "massacre" and "genocide" in Syria.  Strangely (irony) the Syriac, Armenian Uniate and Presbyterian ministers of the Gospel in this tape do not see him and al-Muhandis that way.  They see them as men who helped to defend Aleppo and its minority populations from the wrath of Sunni jihadi Salafists like ISIS and the AQ affiliates in Syria.  They see them and Lebanese Hizbullah as having helped save these Christians by fighting alongside the Syrian Army, Russia and other allies like the Druze and Christian militias.

It should be remembered that the US was intent on and may still be intent on replacing the multi-confessional government of Syria with the forces of medieval tyranny.  Everyone who really knows anything about the Syrian Civil War knows that the essential character of the New Syrian Army, so beloved by McCain, Graham and the other Ziocons was always jihadi and it was always fully supported by Wahhabi Saudi Arabia as a project in establishing Sunni triumphalism.  They and the self proclaimed jihadis of HTS (AQ) are still supported in both Idlib and western Aleppo provinces by the Saudis and the present Islamist and neo-Ottoman government of Turkey.

Well pilgrims, there are Christmas trees in the newly re-built Christian churches of Aleppo and these, my brothers and sisters in Christ remember who stood by them in "the last ditch."

"Currently there are at least 600 churches and 500,000–1,000,000 Christians in Iran." wiki below.  Are they dhimmis?  Yes, but they are there.  There are no churches in Saudi Arabia, not a single one and Christianity is a banned religion.  These are our allies?

Mr. Jefferson wrote that "he feared for his country when he remembered that God is just."  He meant Virginia but I fear in the same way for the United States.  pl

https://twitter.com/i/status/1214223383635857409

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_Iran

"Latest situation in foreign forces deployment in Syria" Yeni Safak

"The U.S. forces evacuated 16 bases and military posts during Operation Peace Spring and returned to six bases as the operation was paused.

The U.S. army strengthened its military presence in Syria’s northeastern border and oil fields.

With five bases and military posts in Hasakah province, the U.S. forces are conducting efforts to set up two other military posts in Qahtaniyah town and Himo village in Qamishli city.

The U.S. aims to both secure oil fields in Hasakah and strengthen its presence on the Turkish border with the military posts.

The U.S. forces are currently deployed at 11 bases and military posts, including five in Hasakah, four in Deir ez-Zor and two in Raqqa.

They also carry out efforts to set up two new bases in Deir ez-Zor."  Yebi Safak

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Yes, this newspaper is pro-Erdo but this looks like a useful map to lay out where everyone is at present.  The map does not extend far enough south to include the US roadblocking position at Al Tanf on the Syrian/Iraqi border but other than that- pretty complete.  pl

 

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/latest-situation-in-foreign-forces-deployment-in-syria-3507700

Shia orphan chorus singing "Silent Night in a Beirut church

"La chorale des orphelines de la Fondation de l’Imam Moussa al-Sadr venue chanter Noel à l’église Saint-Elie de Beyrouth en est la parfaite illustration. Ce spectacle, a priori anodin, peut représenter un exemple à suivre pour les autres pays, notamment en Europe, où malgré les vaines tentatives de formatage artificiel des esprits, les uns et les autres vivent dans une méfiance réciproque sans cesse grandissante."   claudeelkhal blogspot

 

http://claudeelkhal.blogspot.com/2016/12/le-liban-cest-ca-aussi-une-chorale.html?

"Ornament of the World" PBS

This is an excellent narrative of the 'Ummayad Caliphate of Cordoba which ruled for so long what are now Spain, Portugal and the Balearic Islands as al-andalus.  i recommend it to all.  pl

https://www.pbs.org/show/ornament-world/

Saudi Arabia - a family holding company, not a friend.

I speak fluent Arabic.  I was the first professor of the Arabic Language and Middle East Studies at West Point where I was twice judged best classroom teacher and was offered permanent tenure which I declined not wishing to become a permanent school teacher rather than a soldier.

I have spent 40+ years working on or in the Middle East as an active duty US Army officer, diplomat, senior civilian DoD official responsible for intelligence on the Middle East, and South Asia and a business executive directly involved with places like Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia was created by the conquest of the Arabian Peninsula after 1900 by tribes loyal to an extreme form of Wahhabi fanatic Islam based on the Hanbali school of Sunni Islam as reinforced by the extremist medieval scholar Ibn Taimmiya.  For him the only good non-Muslims were either slaves or corpses whose women had been taken as booty and distributed among the true Muslims.

The Saudi pseudo state remains largely motivated by the same ideas.  There is no constitution but Sunni Hanbali religious law.  There is no toleration of other than the official cult.  There are Shia Muslims in the Eastern Province but they are in constant danger from the regime.

The Al-Saud family (thousands great and small) run the place as their private holding.  Any talk of Saudi citizenship is a bad joke.  In SA there are; The Family, their toadies and flunkies, the Wahhabi Ulema, foreign guest workers and tribal, rural Arabs some of them migratory and others small town people.  This melange is held together by an effective police state that is restricted in power only by the royal prerogative.

Modernization? Hah! MBS has confessed to the brutal murder of Kashoggi.  The native masses, to the extent that they exist, have been intensively and exclusively conditioned with Ibn Taimmiya's views on the inherent enmity between the Faithful Wahhabi Sunni and the Kuffar (infidels, i.e. us).  The number of Saudi subjects of the king who are not horrified and disgusted by the West is trivially small.

The US has maintained a relationship with this conglomeration since 1944 when FDR met aboard a US cruiser in the Gulf with the creator of The Kingdom.  This symbiosis used to be justifiable on the basis of containment of the USSR and the oil of Arabia.  Neither of those necessities exist any longer.

Donald Trump is driven by  desire to sweeten the balance sheet of the US as well as a deluded belief in whatever it is that he thinks Israel stands for.   Israel seeks to manipulate the medieval barbarism of Saudi Arabia to further its fantasy of regional hegemony.  They should "wise up."

The Saudi who killed three people at Pensacola is representative of the breed.

It is time for a basic re-appraisal of our relationships in the ME.  pl

Several Things - December 6 2019

Joe Biden   I keep saying that Joe Biden is IMO a nasty bully masquerading as a benevolent, highly experienced and wise curmudgeon with deep roots in the Labor Unions.  He is none of those things.  In evidence of that he yesterday advanced menacingly toward a man who had the audacity to challenge the "Joe Biden" show and narrative.  This was in Iowa.  The man told him he (Biden)  was too old to be president (He is). The man questioned the probity of Joe's narcotics addled son''s appointment to the board of directors of  a corrupt enterprise in Ukraine.  Joe was visibly enraged and it seemed for a minute that he would attack this citizen.  Really, Democrats?  Really?  Him?  Bloomberg? Hilly?  Booker?  Castro? Warren?

Jobs.  The Labor Department employment report released today states that the US economy added 266,000 new jobs in November rather then the expected 186,000.  The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 %.  This is full employment because there is a certain amount of structural unemployment inherent in any economy.  "Impeachment?" What's that?

St. Nancy the hypocrite a reporter asked Pelosi yesterday if she acts from hatred of Trump.  She responded that having been raised as a Catholic she does not hate anyone because we are taught to hate the sin and love the sinner. Well, pilgrims, Catholics are expected to practice their religion through both faith and deeds and to accept the teaching of the Church.  In spite of the hopes of some, this is not a cafeteria operation.  One does not pick and choose among the Church's teachings. If you can't accept them, you leave.  Pelosi is in spiritual rebellion against the Church's teaching on abortion.  Catholic teaching is that abortion is murder plain and simple.  There are some Catholic politicians who claim to compartment their personal beliefs and actions from their responsibility to their non-Catholic constituents.  I do not challenge that having done much the same as a government servant but that is not the case with St. Nancy who is an ardent advocate for abortion.  BTW if the US government had sought to require me to do something immoral I would have refused and taken the consequences.

Riots in Paris  I like France, the French language, their wine, their cheese, their women and their style of life, but I am not blind to the faults of the French.  One of these is a tendency to take to the streets over grievances or perceived grievances  in society.  France has a highly regulated economy that does not particularly favor growth of the kind now being experienced in the US.  "Bureaucracy" as a word is French in origin.  At the same time the welfare state is massive and all pervasive.  In fact the welfare state with its early retirements and cradle to grave benefits is just too big to be sustained by the economy of the country.  This conflict of means and ends is strangling the country's ability to function.  Macron knows this and has been trying over the last year or so to "whittle down" the outputs enough to have them align with the inputs in the economy.  The result has been the "Yellow Sweaters" street riots and now a new wave of riots resisting attempts to change retirement laws.  This street activity will burn itself out but the  riots are likely to be prolonged. 

 The Shooting In Pensacola  A Saudi military trainee went shahiid (berserk)today and killed three people.  The naval aviation center there routinely trains foreign aviators.  There was nothing unusual in the man's presence on base.  He had been in training for a year.  King Salman sent his condolences supposedly saying to Trump that he and the Saudi people love the US and the American people.  Well, pilgrims, I lived in The Kingdom for several years and have visited many times and I do not remember indications of their love for us.  It will be interesting to learn if the student just ran amok crying Allahu Akbar! or couldn't make it in class or both.  pl

 

"...Tucker Carlson Criticized for Saying 'Russia Poses No Threat to the United States At All'"

"If we're really being honest here, Russia poses no threat to the United States at all."

"Too many careers depend upon keeping our assumptions exactly where they were in the fall of 1977, when fighting the Soviet Menace consumed the lion's share of our federal budget," Carlson said.

"So here in Washington that's what we're doing. Our real fear is that the rest of America will at some point discover that the Soviet Union no longer exists," he continued.

Carlson went on to list things about Russia intended to minimize their power: an economy the size of Italy's, a military budget that is one-tenth of ours and an aircraft carrier "that needs to be towed around the ocean because it's broken."  Newsweek

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Yup.  It is true, pilgrims.  The USSR no longer exists.

For years after the fall of that communist monstrosity, Soviet specialist analysts in the IC used to sing at office Christmas parties in Washington that they were dreaming of "A Red Christmas Just Like The Ones They used to Know."  These characters had lived "high on the hog" since WW2.  They got the lion's share of everything, funds, attention, you name it.  Poor sods like me who specialized in regions where people actually fought each other with rusty rifles and machine guns were definitely the poor relatives come to town hat in hand.

And then, all of a sudden, the Soviet specialist people were essentially out of a job.  Or, at least, they were a hell of a lot less important.  The same thing happened to all the Iranian specialists when the Pahlavis went down.  Fortunately for me, my good old Arabs and other assorted ME scoundrels kept right on bashing and backstabbing each other while most of them sat on a great big puddle of oil.  That and the Zionist thing kept me well employed.

The Soviet guys needed a few years to rebound, but as Tucker says, they have done so by merchandising the notion that Russia = the USSR.  The two pomposities (Taylor and Kent) from the Foreign Service who testified yesterday made it very clear that their real bitch against Trump is that 1.  He thinks he can do business overseas without their bureaucratic intervention and 2.  He doesn't really accept the assumption that Russia is an indispensable and inevitable enemy.  Kent rather sadly said that it has been a basic assumption of his entire career that Russia is THE ENEMY.  The whole swamp is infected with group think to that effect.  In the case of the Foreign Service it is remarkable that such a group of soi-disant intellectuals and sophisticated veterans of the FOREIGN SERVICE EXAM should in truth be just another bunch of conformists seeking the approval of their colleagues.  But, then, that is how one gets promoted.

No, pilgrims, China is THE REAL ENEMY.  pl

https://www.newsweek.com/fox-news-tucker-carlson-criticized-saying-russia-poses-no-threat-united-states-all-1471681

John Hannah is IMO a shill for Israel

At about 3 minutes into the TeeVee show tape linked below. the news host lets Hannah begin to talk about Iraq and then Iran.  Hannah was Cheney's foreign policy  staffer during the run up to Desert Storm.  He worked for Libby who worked for Cheney.  He was one of the architects of the war hungry strategy that led to that endless war, a war that has never really ended.  Someone urged me to go talk to Hannah before Desert Storm.  I went.  We met in his closet sized office in the OEB.  I am usually annoyed by people who talk to you from behind their desks but this space was tiny.  He clearly had his mind made up about the wonderfulness of an invasion and wanted to talk about the size force to be used. 

Our deliberate destruction of the existing social order in Iraq unleashed the forces of Sunni rebellion against the occupation and the Shia government that we created through our farcical purple thumb elections.  These were held in the aftermath of the occupation government having openly stated to Sunni leaders that their time had ended.  Now we have the Shia fighting each other over the division of power in Iraq.  John Hannah said on this program that this is because some Shia (the "good" Shia?) are resisting the "control" of Iraq by the government of Iran.

Iran is the major theme of the rest of Hannah's statements to the interviewer.   Hannah is upset at the prospect of "a land bridge" (road connection) from Iran to a Syrian port.  To prevent such a connection the US keeps troops in Syria at al-Tanf just where Israel wants them.  Hannah is upset because  Iran "seeks regional hegemony" (to frustrate Israeli ambitions for the same thing?), etc., etc, ad nauseam.  IMO this is tribalism at its worst. 

IMO Hannah is merely a mouthpiece for Israeli policy.  He is taken seriously as an AMERICAN policy talking head?  He was one of the leading architects of the disastrous Iraq policy and war.  This interview should call into question the basis for his advocacy of that war, a war which the Israelis urged the US to fight.  pl

https://www.foxbusiness.com/shows/after-the-bell

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_P._Hannah

SAA/SDF cooperation against Turks is working

"The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) entered late on November 7 new villages in northern al-Hasakah, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

“Syrian Arab Army units widen their deployment in the villages of Umm Shuaiyfah, al-Faysaliyah, al-Manakh and al-Mahmoudiyah on the axis of Tell Tamr-Ras al-Ayn,” the SANA’s reporter in al-Hasakah said.

Militants of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched a large-scale attack on these villages last month, capturing most of them. Back then, the SAA was forced to withdraw from the nearby town of Tell Tamr.

The villages were recaptured by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) within a few days, with SNA militants retreating to their original positions around the border town of Ras al-Ayn.

The SAA’s deployment in these village is likely aimed at deterring Turkish-backed militants, who are still launching limited attacks in northeast Syria. Army units entered the region last month to prevent such attacks following an agreement with the SDF."  sf

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SAA troops are now operating in close cooperation with the SDF Kurdish and Arab forces for the purpose of resisting the Turkish backed Syrian National Army (SNA) of jihadis.  The Turkish Army stands behind the SNA and has supported them with artillery fires and air attacks but has not itself advanced beyond urban areas right on the border.  Evidently the blandishments of both the Russian and US governments have kept them from trying to advance farther into Syria.  This development indicates the possibility of further progress in re-uniting Syria politically.

The bizarre neocon attempt to withhold Syria's small  oil deposits from the national government is bound to fail.  It represents the fading effect of neocon arguments made by people like Keane and Pompeo.

Meanwhile, the R+6 continue to prep the battlefield in western Idlib and eastern Latakia for a renewal of the effort to recover that territory for the Syrian government.  IMO the ground effort when it comes will be toward Jisr as-Shugur from the west and north up the Al-Ghaab Valley.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-enters-new-villages-in-northern-al-hasakah/

"Joltin'" Jack Keane wants your kids to fight Russia and Syria over Syrian oil.

"Joltin" Jack Keane, General (ret.), Fox Business Senior Strategery Analyst,  Chairman of the Board of the Kagan run neocon "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW)  and Graduate Extraordinaire of Fordham University, was on with Lou Dobbs last night.  Dobbs appears to have developed a deep suspicion of this paladin.  He stood up to Keane remarkably well.  This was refreshing in light of the fawning deference paid to Keane by all the rest of the Fox crew.

In the course of this dialogue Keane let slip the slightly disguised truth that he and the other warmongers want to keep something like 200 US soldiers and airmen in Syria east of the Euphrates so that they can keep Iran or any other "Iranian proxy forces" from crossing the Euphrates from SAG controlled territory to take control of Syrian sovereign territory and the oil and gas deposits that are rightly the property  of the Syrian people and their government owned oil company.  The map above shows how many of these resources are east of the Euphrates.  Pilgrims!  It is not a lot of oil and gas judged by global needs and markets, but to Syria and its prospects for reconstruction it is a hell of a lot! 

Keane was clear that what he means by "Iranian proxy forces" is the Syrian Arab Army, the national army of that country.  If they dare cross the river, to rest in the shade of their own palm trees, then in his opinion the air forces of FUKUS should attack them and any 3rd party air forces (Russia) who support them

This morning, on said Fox Business News with Charles Payne, Keane was even clearer and stated specifically that if "Syria" tries to cross the river they must be fought.

IMO he and Lindsey Graham are raving lunatics brainwashed for years with the Iran obsession and they are a danger to us all.  pl

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/graham-fox-news-star-showed-trump-map-change-his-mind-n1069901

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Syria

A State Department map helps to locate recent areas of conflict in Syria

By Robert Willmann

To help visualize where recent events regarding the ongoing conflict in Syria are happening, here is a map from the State Department showing some of the provinces and towns in northern Syria where its border with Turkey is.  The map, which can be downloaded, also shows some border crossings according to the map legend, although not all of them have been given a name.

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/files/syria_snapshot_2018oct01_hiu.pdf

The map is from the Humanitarian Information Unit (HIU), which is part of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research  [1]. 

Going from west to east in northern Syria, the provinces (or governates) that are shown are Latakia, Idlib, Aleppo, Ar Raqqah, and Al Hasakah. 

Towns that have been mentioned include Ra's al ‘Ayn in the Al Hasakah province in northeastern Syria.  Kobane ('Ayn al Arab) is more in the center on the border with Turkey.  Tal Abyad would be further to the east in the Ar Raqqah province.  Latakia is in the far northwest by the Mediterranean Sea. You can also see the Euphrates River running from the north central part of Syria to the southeast.

These areas and towns were referenced yesterday in the article by TTG.

The map is called a "Regional Displacement Snapshot" as of the end of September 2018, regarding refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs).  It also shows some refugee camps.

 

[1] https://www.state.gov/key-topics-bureau-of-intelligence-and-research/

https://www.hiu.state.gov/products/

 

Brief Update on the Border Situation - TTG

Much has been made of the 120 hour truce supposedly negotiated by Pence and Erdogan. The “negotiation” called for the SDF to pull all its force back from the border. As I told Elaine earlier today, whatever Pence and Erdogan agreed to has no effect on the YPG, the SAA or the Russians. For that matter, it has little effect on the jihadis, either. The SAA has taken over the Kobani border post and have started to move heavy weapons into the area. The dog and pony show in Ankara means nothing… except for possibly assuaging Trump’s ego over his recent goat roping with Erdogan. I believe the true target of this ceasefire announcement is the US Congress which is about to impose sanctions on Turkey.

The SAA deployment to the border is continuing. At the same time, Russian and Syrian strikes on jihadi position in Latakia are intensifying in preparation for resuming the offensive on that front. In the meantime, the jihadis are bound to make some more temporary advances east of the Euphrates. All in good time, my friends, all in good time.  

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BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:00 A.M.) – The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have once again fended off a powerful attack by the Turkish-backed militants at the key border city of Ras Al-‘Ayn in northwestern Al-Hasakah. Backed by heavy airstrikes from the Turkish Air Force, the so-called “Syrian National Army” attempted to advance from the western districts of Ras Al-‘Ayn towards the city-center; however, they were unable to crack the SDF’s lines. According to a report from northern Al-Hasakah, the Syrian Democratic Forces were able to foil the militant advance, while also inflicting heavy casualties within the ranks of the Turkish-backed militants.

While the Turkish-backed militants were able to advance at Tal Abyad in Al-Raqqa, their offensive at Ras Al-‘Ayn has been plagued with heavy losses in personnel and very litle progress inside the city.

Since establishing their military cooperation agreement with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in northern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces have been able to free up several units and redeploy them to the Ras Al-‘Ayn front. This has been incredibly important for the SDF, as they have been able to reinforce their front-lines at Ras Al-‘Ayn and its surroundings. (Al Masdar News)

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sdf-kills-several-militants-to-defeat-another-turkish-backed-attack-on-border-city/

Jubilation! - TTG

Damascus is on her way in achieving her ultimate goal of regaining control over all her territory and achieving peace thanks to VV Putin and the welcome and necessary assistance of DJ Trump. There’s no other way to put it. Elijah Magnier has summarized the current situation in a series of tweets this afternoon. If his summary is accurate, it is indeed good news. 

————

The Syrian Army is in Manbij now. Another Syrian Army force heading towards the Turkish advance supported by Syrian Kurds. 

It only needed the announcement of the US withdrawal to put the end of the war in Syria on a fast track in no time.

Kurds agreed on all requested points by Damascus and Russia is the guarantor. Kurds have become part of the Syrian security allied forces. The Syrian Army agreed to take in hand all ISIS prisoners, families and those on the run. Europe will have to deal with Damascus now. 

Breaking news: Syrian Army forces prepared to take control of Ayn al-Arab this evening.

FYI: SAA maintains forces in Qamishli along with some allies.

This situation - the withdrawal of US forces and its behaviour with Kurds after years of battles on the ground - will tremendously help Russia in confirming its credibility and commitment toward its allies and truthful partnership as a substitute to the untrustworthy US.

Important:  The advance of the Syrian Army doesn't mean a clash with the Turkish forces. Russia is reaching a comprehensive agreement with Turkey and Damascus to halt the military operation as soon as possible.

The main target is reached: the US forces out of Syria. Turkey feared a well-armed and powerful YPG, the PKK Syrian branch, previously supplied/protected by the US. Now that the US is pulling out, Damascus shall not allow any attack or threat against Turkey and won't accept an independent Rojava. Adana agreement is back on track

————

The SAA has just moved into Tabqa airbase.  “The Self-Administration of Northeast release[d] a statement that they call on Syrian army to protect the country's borders and preserve Syrian sovereignty & support SDF to repel Turkish aggression and liberate areas occupied by "Turkish army and its hired mercenaries" (from Wladimir Wilgenburg). My guess, though, is that the SDF will very soon cease to exist. Those forces will be integrated directly into the SAA or become NDF auxiliaries. The Kurds will not get their semi-autonomous Rojava, but they will be alive, living in their ancestral lands and under Damascus’ governance.

Neocons throughout the world will wail in the darkness and gnash their teeth. They will still blame Trump for “losing Syria.” But take it from me, someone who has absolutely no respect for the man, Trump done good. His willingness to work with Putin is making Syria a better place. Putin could not have orchestrated this without Trump’s willingness (or boldness) to buck the entire USG.  Good on him for this one, even if he may not have been aware of exactly what he did. He can chalk this up as a victory for the American people.

Even with this momentous turn of events, the SAA and Russia are not forgetting Idlib. Today a flight of eight Syrian attack helicopters tore the jihadis a new one outside Kabani. Russian Aerospace Forces also hit the area. This is in preparation for a renewed push in Latakia.

The photo at the top of this post is labeled Celebrations in Qamishli and Hasaka. People celebrating the "start of the deployment of the Syrian army to confront Turkish aggression". I think we should celebrate as well. I’m sure we’ll hear a lot more tomorrow.

TTG

Kurds and SAG reach agreement to fight Turks

• The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reportedly reached an agreement with Damascus on the situation in northern Syria;
• The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) started entering the SDF-held area around Manbij. SAA units will reportedly enter Kabani and move further;
• Turkey-led forces develop their advance despite the SDF-Damascus agreement.  SF

--------------

It seems that part of the "art of the deal" is to place people in a position where not making a deal bears unacceptable consequences.  As one of us wrote, the Borg (foreign policy establishment) and Lindsey Graham must be tearing their hair out and rending their garments.

I leave it to TTG to comment in detail.  pl

https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-northern-syria-after-sdf-damascus-deal-map-update/

Saudi Arabia accepts cease fire in Yemen

"Saudi Arabia has agreed to a limited cease-fire in several areas of Yemen including the capital Sana’a, which is controlled by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, as part of broader efforts to end a four-year conflict that has threatened to escalate into regional war.

A Yemeni government official and a diplomat said attempts were underway to expand the truce. Saudi officials couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

Last week, the Houthis announced a unilateral halt to the hundreds of drone and missile attacks that have targeted OPEC’s largest producer in recent years.

The apparent breakthroughs follow a devastating attack on major Saudi oil facilities that briefly halved the country’s output and rattled global markets this month. Yemen’s Houthis said they carried out the attack using a swarm of unmanned aircraft, but the U.S. has said Iran was responsible."  yahoo, Bloomberg, etc.

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This doesn't fit the US government BS narrative in which it was IRAN who attacked at Abqaiq and Khareus.  Pompeo scoffed the other day at the idea that the Yemeni rebels could have done the deed, but here we have the obvious truth.

Saudi Arabia would not have negotiated a cease fire with the Yemeni rebels if it had not been the Yemenis who attacked them.  They know that if there is not a cease fire there will be more attacks against their petroleum infrastructure and possibly their desal plants without which they cannot survive.

Remember this the next time Pompeo tells you anything.  He evidently forgot the word "honor" in the West Point motto.  pl

https://www.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-agrees-limited-cease-134703209.html

“Military experts believe Iranian-made drones set off from Yemen to strike Aramco" ra'i al yowm

I was provided this translation by Alastair Crooke's  "The Raw and the Cooked" on line magazine published from Crooke's location in Beirut.  This a very fine subscription service and I recommend it highly.   [email protected]  is their contact e-mail address.  pl 

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“Military experts believe Iranian-made drones set off from Yemen to strike Aramco

Rai al-Youm daily, 17 Sept 2019

The military commanders in the USA are keeping silent with regards to the source of the attacks that targeted the Aramco oil facilities last Saturday and that caused some serious damages there. It seems that the Houthis have used Iranian-made modern drones and that a commando unit from Saudi land served to steer the drones at the last few minutes prior to the strikes.
“So far, the statements of the American politicians are leading the list of accusations directed at Iran for allegedly being responsible for the attacks... The American politicians are speaking about Iran’s responsibility although the Houthis have released a statement where they stressed that they stand behind this operation knowing that the Houthis have always been honest in their military statements in order to gain the trust of the international media outlets.

“The odd part consists of the silence of the American military commanders. Indeed, there has been no official report released by the Pentagon that accuses Iran. Furthermore, no senior military officers made any statements to accuse Iran. The senior officers and military experts are actually cautious and not taking the risk of making any incorrect statements. They realize that the arsenal of the American radars at the Arabian Gulf including the land and the ship-mounted radars have recorded at least half the drones’ flight, which is enough data to tell the source.

“The Abqaiq station is geographically close to Bahrain and Qatar. It is thus close to the American Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, which is equipped with modern radars. It is also close to the Al-Udeid base in Qatar, which is home to the most modern radars of the American military industry. These radars are capable of monitoring the activity of the rockets and drones coming from Iran or Iraq. If these radars failed to do that, then this constitutes a scandal for the American military industry knowing that the radars are pointed at Iran.

“The secret behind the US military commanders’ silence and them abstaining from mentioning the source of the drones is because they don’t wish to admit that the drones are Iranian-made and were able to dodge the radars that are deployed in the region. Iran might have smuggled these drones to the Houthis... Iran possesses advanced drones that are capable of flying for long distances while loaded with explosives. These include drones that can carry out suicide missions by striking fixed targets such as the Muhajir, Raad, and Karrar drones. These have succeeded in the past to fly above the American aircraft carriers. Some comments are circulating at the American military chat rooms that go: “If Iran is capable of shooting down a Global Hawk, and if it was able to take photos of the aircraft carriers in the Gulf, then this means that its drones are as advanced as its missiles. This is something that one must admit.”””

"If you hit them, they will behave ..." - the neocons' song.

I have long puzzled over the question of why the neocons; Lindsey Graham, the late John McCain (be brave Lindsey!), Jack Keane, Bolton, Pompeo, etc., etc., ad nauseam,  cling so firmly to the idea of striking Iran a hard blow.

Today I heard the reason voiced on the Sunday newsies by several of the Faithful.  "If you punish the Iranians they will behave" was the refrain.  "They know they would lose to the US and so would be afraid to go to war with us."  This delusion is a variation of the Rational Actor Model.  This poly sci inspired model is based on the false premise that everyone, everywhere functions on the basis of the same priorities and values.  This is an untruth.  For example, a willingness to die for one's country is not a universally shared attitude.  Nor is, a belief in an almighty God who dictates one's duty in this world.  A god in whom the Muslims actually believe as expressed in the shahada (testimony) depicted above.

So, pilgrims, the neocons believe that if the Iranians are punished like children who are spanked for picking their noses, they will recognize the error of their ways and the country will accept the will of the US and more importantly of the Zionists who are IMO the source of such a belief.  Zionism seeks a ME pacified with regard to the existence and hegemony of the Jewish State. 

To that end the Zionists have followed a relentless practice of punishing their opponents in order to bring them to heel.  That has never worked for them but they persist in this "strategery" and have clearly convinced a critical number of movers and shakers in the US to follow their lead.  pl

Meet the Quds1 cruise missile. Made in Yemen?

"On September 14, several explosions rocked the Khurais oilfield as well as the Abqaiq refinery, one of Saudi Arabia’s most vital petrochemical installations. Several hours later, the Houthis claimed that they had targeted both facilities with ten drones as part of their “Balance of Deterrence” campaign.

What made this attack different from other recorded Houthi drone attacks was not only the unprecedented amount of material damage caused but also lingering doubt about the nature and the attribution of the attack. First, a video allegedly showing flying objects entering Kuwaiti airspace led to speculation that like a previous “Houthi” drone attack this strike might actually have originated in Iraq or even Iran. While the video remains unverified, the fact that the Kuwaiti government launched a probe into the issue lends some credence to the idea that something might have happened over Kuwait that day. Speculation about the origins of the attack was further fueled by a tweet by Mike Pompeo in which he claimed that there was no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.

Then the question arose whether drones had been used at all, or whether the attack might in fact have been a missile strike. Previous Houthi drone strikes against oil facilities tended to result in quite limited damage which could be an indication that a different weapons system was used this time. Indeed, Aramco came to the conclusion that its facilities were attacked by missiles. Even more curious, several pictures began to emerge on social media purportedly showing the wreckage of a missile in the Saudi desert. While the images appear real, neither the date the photos were taken nor their location can be verified. Social media users quickly claimed the images showed a crashed Iranian-made Soumar cruise missile. The Soumar and its updated version, the Hoveyzeh, are Iran’s attempts at reverse-engineering the Soviet-designed KH-55 cruise missile, several of which the country illegally imported from Ukraine in the early 2000s. Others claimed it was the Quds 1, a recently unveiled Houthi cruise missile often claimed to be a rebranded Soumar."  armscontrolwonl

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TTG raised the issue of whether or not this wave of strikes was done by UAVs or cruise missiles.  IMO this cruise missile could be built in Yemen with Iranian assistance.   I am very interested in the question of what the actual vector of the attacks was in this case.  pl

/www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/

Will Saudi Arabia survive the Yemen War? - Re-published 2 September 2016, Republished again 30 August 2019

(In light of; the decline in the economy of SA, the apparently successful Yemeni guided missile attack on Taif, SA (700 Km from the Yemen border), and the presence of Yemeni forces in the Asir Province of SA it seems appropriate to re-publish this post.  It was originally posted in April, 2015)

"Pakistan's parliament voted on Friday not to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, dashing Riyadh's hopes for powerful support from outside of the region in its fight to halt Iranian-allied Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia had asked fellow Sunni-majority Pakistan to provide ships, aircraft and troops for the campaign, now in its third week, to stem the influence of Shi'ite Iran in what appears to be proxy war between the Gulf's two dominant powers.

While Saudi Arabia has the support of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors, Pakistan's parliament voted against becoming militarily involved.

"(Parliament) desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis," it said."  Reuters 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0N10LO20150410

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IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen.  This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY.  SA's armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary "stick and rudder" level of operations.  The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive.   On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located).  The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions.  In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents.  Egypt is dragging its feet.  The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US.  pl

***********

"Ground troops would certainly face stiff resistance from the Houthi militiamen. Seasoned guerrilla fighters, they seized parts of southern Saudi Arabia during a brief war in 2009, killing over 100 Saudi troops.

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out a ground attack, but its allies appear wary of such a move. The kingdom has asked Pakistan to commit troops to the campaign, but that country is deeply divided over participating in an operation that could anger its own Shiite minority.

Though fraught with risk, continued airstrikes and a possible ground incursion may be the only choices that Saudi Arabia sees itself as having, said Imad Salamey, a Middle East expert at Lebanese American University. He said that officials in Riyadh probably are concerned that relenting could be perceived as weakness, especially by Iran."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/saudi-air-war-struggles-to-make-gains-as-yemen-fragments/2015/04/09/1a045766-ddf6-11e4-b6d7-b9bc8acf16f7_story.html

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IMO Saudi Arabia is headed for an embarrassing failure in Yemen, one that will reveal its true nature as a gang of nepotistic hedonists sitting on immense wealth.

What could be more tempting?  pl 

Gabbard was right about the USG and al-qa'ida

Tulsi Gabbard is being thrashed today in the Trump Is Always Perfect camp for saying that He is supporting AQ.  If she had expanded the accusation to include actions taken in the Obama administration she would have been exactly correct.

The Saudis, the Israelis and their acolytes among American neocons like the late, sainted John McCain, Sheldon Adelson, Lindsey Graham, Joe Lieberman, John Bolton and Pom Pom have long succeeded in using the madcap US policy of regime change in Syria as an excuse to fund jihadi groups in Syria.  There is a wide variety of these but the most obvious are the al-nusra front and hayat tahrir al-sham, both of which are branches of AQ in Syria.

Both CIA and the US armed forces have been and still may be supplying and funding these groups.  She was right.  She simply needed to explain herself better and not try to pin the blame solely on Trump who is largely an "absentee landlord" with regard to policy in the ME.  He has no policy in the ME.  Adelson, Natanyahu and Lindsey Graham have policy in the ME, but not Trump. pl

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tulsi-gabbard-defends-debate-claim-that-trump-supports-al-qaeda-to-shannon-bream

"... Not the men we thought we were ..."

Newt Gingrich once explained to me whilst sitting in my map room in the Pentagon how it was  that Japan decided to go to war against the United States in World War II.

He recounted that the decision had much to do with US embargoes of sales to Japan of strategic commodities such as; scrap steel, rubber and oil.  Japan in the late 30s was resource poor and skills rich.   The government was then in the hands of a clique of militaristic nationalists intent on winning lebensraum for their island empire.  To accomplish that, the Tojo government needed the instruments of war as well as a lack of effective US and British resistance to their ambitions.

The embargoes of the materials needed for Japanese industry were seen by the government as a major obstacle to territorial expansion and a profound indication of the permanent hostility of the United States, a country that was the only other serious Pacific Ocean naval power as well as the possessor of a major land base in the Philippine Islands, then an American territory.  With these beliefs as background, the Imperial War Council met in 1941 to consider options.  The Navy tended to believe that it could not win a protracted struggle with the US, but the Army insisted that whatever the risk Japan must fight the US to find its place "in the sun."  After long discussion the council recommended war to the Emperor in the belief that unless they were willing to fight the US and Britain they "would not be the men they had thought they were." 

IMO we are creating an analogous situation in US-Iranian relations.  The neocon imperialists present in both parties are riding high in the foreign policy apparatus of the United States.  As part of their program of gaining a thinly disguised global hegemony they are steadily squeezing Iran into a smaller and smaller "box."  The abandonment of JCPOA and the demand for a new agreement that would require Iran to abandon any effort to be a regional power is at the core of that effort.  The insistence that Hizbullah, Hamas and the IRGC are terrorist groups that may not be maintained or supported is a direct challenge to Iranian sovereignty.  As I have previously written, the terrorist designation of these groups makes them legal targets for military action under the US AUMF.  Add to these things, the effort to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero and you may well have a situation in which the Iranians decide that they must hit back or accept that they are not the men they thought they were.  pl

OPCW Engineering sub-team assessment on the Douma gas "attack" in April 2018

Assessment by the engineering sub-team of the OPCW Fact-Finding Mission investigating the alleged chemical attack in Douma in April 2018

Paul McKeigue, David Miller, Piers Robinson

Members of Working Group on Syria, Propaganda and Media

• 1 Introduction
• 2 Commentary on the Engineering Assessment
  • 2.1 Methodology
  • 2.2 Results: Location 2
  • 2.3 Results: Location 4
  • 2.4 Conclusions of the Engineering Assessment
• 3 Implications of the Engineering Assessment combined with other findings
• 4 The hijacking of OPCW
• 5 Acknowledgements

1 Introduction

In our Briefing note on the Final Report of the OPCW Fact-Finding Mission on the Douma incident, we noted that the FFM had sought assessments in October 2018 from unidentified engineering experts on the “the trajectory and damage to the cylinders found at Locations 2 and 4”. The Final Report provided no explanation for why the FFM had not sought engineering assessments in April 2018, when the experts could have inspected the sites with cylinders in position, rather than six months later when inspection of the sites with cylinders in position was no longer possible and the assessments had to rely on images and measurements obtained by others. We raised this as an obvious anomaly.

OPCW staff members have communicated with the Working Group. We have learned that an investigation was undertaken by an engineering sub-team of the FFM, beginning with on-site inspections in April-May 2018, followed by a detailed engineering analysis including collaboration on computer modelling studies with two European universities. The report of this investigation was excluded from the published Final Report of the Fact-Finding Mission, which referred only to assessments sought from unidentified “engineering experts” commissioned in October 2018 and obtained in December 2018.

A copy of a 15-page Executive Summary of this report with the title “Engineering Assessment of two cylinders observed at the Douma incident” has been passed to us and we have posted it here. Please download and share this document via your own server if you link to it, so as not to overload our server.

We are studying this document, and encourage others with relevant expertise to contribute. We provide some initial comments below:-

The tanker damage in the Gulf was probably a "provocation" aimed at Iran.

"The revisions were ordered by hard-liners led by John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser. They do not call for a land invasion of Iran, which would require vastly more troops, officials said.

The development reflects the influence of Mr. Bolton, one of the administration’s most virulent Iran hawks, whose push for confrontation with Tehran was ignored more than a decade ago by President George W. Bush.

It is highly uncertain whether Mr. Trump, who has sought to disentangle the United States from Afghanistan and Syria, ultimately would send so many American forces back to the Middle East."  NY Times

"It is also unclear whether the president has been briefed on the number of troops or other details in the plans. On Monday, asked about if he was seeking regime change in Iran, Mr. Trump said: “We’ll see what happens with Iran. If they do anything, it would be a very bad mistake.”

There are sharp divisions in the administration over how to respond to Iran at a time when tensions are rising about Iran’s nuclear policy and its intentions in the Middle East."  NY Times

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IMO the armed forces (persons unknown therein) leaked the base information in this article to the NY Times to warn Trump of the wild eyed foolishness of the crew he has allowed to run US foreign policy.

In the information briefing (as opposed to a decision briefing) described in this article concerning military options, Trump was not even present. 

What has happened once again is that Bolton asked DoD for options for the president/CinC's contemplation.  As I have written in the last days, neither Bolton nor Pompeo has any command authority over the armed forces.  Neither does Haspel at CIA.  Only the president can command them.  Only he has the constitutional authority to do so.

IMO the neocon squeeze with regard to Iran is in high gear.  The aim is probably to pressure Iran until they lash out somewhere against US forces or interests. 

Trump would then be urged by the madmen in the White House to order the armed forces to attack.  pl

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

It’s time for Trump to stop John Bolton and Mike Pompeo from sabotaging his foreign policy | Mulshine

"I put that question to another military vet, former Vietnam Green Beret Pat Lang.

“Once he’s committed to a war in the Mideast, he’s just screwed,” said Lang of Trump.

But Lang, who later spent more than a decade in the Mideast, noted that Bolton has no direct control over the military.

“Bolton has a problem,” he said. “If he can just get the generals to obey him, he can start all the wars he wants. But they don’t obey him.”

They obey the commander-in-chief. And Trump has a history of hiring war-crazed advisors who end up losing their jobs when they get a bit too bellicose. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley comes to mind."

" In Lang’s view, anyone who sees Trump as some sort of ideologue is missing the point.

“He’s an entrepreneurial businessman who hires consultants for their advice and then gets rid of them when he doesn’t want that advice,” he said.

So far that advice hasn’t been very helpful, at least in the case of Bolton. His big mouth seems to have deep-sixed Trump’s chance of a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. And that failed coup in Venezuela has brought up comparisons to the failed Bay of Pigs invasion during the Kennedy administration."  Mulshine

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Well, pilgrims, I worked exclusively on the subject of the Islamic culture continent for the USG from 1972 to 1994 and then in business from 1994 to 2006.  I suppose I am still working on the subject.  pl

https://www.nj.com/opinion/2019/05/its-time-for-trump-to-stop-john-bolton-and-mike-pompeo-from-sabotaging-his-foreign-policy-mulshine.html

Giddoutahere!

"Things keep heating up in Venezuela, with possible “military options” now being seriously discussed at the Pentagon. And of course you know what that means! That’s right, it means we can expect to see even more lies and manipulations from the political/media class as the narrative managers try to get their rapey little fingers into our minds to manufacture support for unconscionable acts."  Johnstone

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Trumpy!  These stiffs are losers!  Losers!  They lost in Iraq!.  Remember!  You say you like to win.  These guys are losers.  Keeping these losers will just drag you down!  You always dump losers like these.  Remember!  Where did you get these stiffs?  Who pushed them off on you?  Get rid of them losers too!

Bolton torpedoed your deal with your friend Kim!  Remember.  Is he trying to torpedo your deal with China?

You know that you  have to make some kind of deal with Russia and the great judomaster.  Is Bolton trying to screw that up ?

The three stooges.  Ah, no, Pompey the Magnificent is missing from the group mug shot.   Trumpster! You should dump these guys, AND the crews who gave us the messes in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, the Golan Heights, Kushner's deal of the century, and the coming good deal in Lebanon.

Get some new ones.  You can't let little people losers drag you down.  pl

https://southfront.org/caitlin-johnstone-venezuela-establishment-talking-points-translation-key/

The Collapse of Deterrence with Iran by Christopher J. Bolan

Earlier this month, the U.S. administration announced its decision to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).  Just this week, the Trump administration said that it will no longer exempt any country from U.S. sanctions if they continue to buy Iranian oil.  These moves are justifiably sparking renewed debate about U.S. strategy for Iran. 

The White House portrays these steps as a natural progression in its ‘maximum pressure’ campaign to deprive Iran of “funds that it has used to destabilize the Middle East for decades.”

The reaction among policy pundits has been mixed but imminently predictable.  Supporters of regime change in Iran, like Mark Dubowitz at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, have long pushed for such moves.  On the opposing side, advocates of rapprochement such as Trita Parsi have sounded alarmist assessments indicating that the IRGC designation alone represents a dangerous escalation that might well lead to war.  Still others see the combination of the IRGC designation and the imposition of crippling new sanctions as part of an orchestrated public information campaign to build a U.S. case for war against Iran. 

Meanwhile, others in the analytical community including Suzanne Maloney at Brookings have characterized the IRGC designation as an action that will ultimately prove to be of little consequence.  Similarly, while the threat of additional U.S. sanctions on countries importing Iranian oil have already predictably led to a short-term increase in oil prices, some oil analysts have suggested that the U.S. drive to get Iranian oil exports to zero will ultimately fail and characterize such policies as more “feel-good rather than strategy-driven.”

Whichever side of this debate you find yourself, it is imperative to recognize that – whether by happenstance or design – these steps are dangerously degrading the pillars of a successful U.S. deterrence strategy against Iran. 

A collapse in the House of Bolton?

"The Baghdad Summit is scheduled to take place on April 20th with several Middle Eastern countries set to participate in this conference organized by Iraq.

The list of countries participating in the Baghdad Summit are as followed: Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Syria."  AMN and Reuters

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Unless I am seriously mistaken, this meeting is a major setback for the John Bolton view of "the direction" of history in the ME.  These countries are supposed to be obeying Bolton's rules of international order in which peoples and governments are easily manipulated through intimidation and/or bribes to line up neatly into blocs that are on one side stooges of the US and on the other implacable and deadly enemies who must be pursued across all the world's oceans until they "spout black blood and roll fin out."  They can then be added to the US controlled blocs.

Perhaps I have missed something here but these folks do not appear to be playing their assigned roles.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-turkey-syria-saudi-arabia-set-to-meet-for-first-time-at-baghdad-summit/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-parliament/iraq-to-host-regional-rivals-iran-and-saudi-arabia-at-conference-idUSKCN1RW08B

Should the resolution on Yemen under section 1544(c) of the War Powers law be faithfully executed by the president rather than be subject to a veto?

By Robert Willmann

On 4 April 2019, Congress passed a resolution under the War Powers Act, officially known as the War Powers Resolution, Public Law 93-148, to stop most operations by U.S. Armed Forces in Yemen.  This was noted here on SST [1].  On 16 April, president Trump vetoed the resolution, which was Senate Joint Resolution 7 (S.J.Res. 7)--

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-veto-message-senate-accompany-s-j-res-7/

The section of the War Powers Resolution/Act applied in this instance is section 1544(c), "Concurrent resolution for removal by president of United States Armed Forces" [2]--

"(c) Notwithstanding subsection (b), at any time that United States Armed Forces are engaged in hostilities outside the territory of the United States, its possessions and territories without a declaration of war or specific statutory authorization, such forces shall be removed by the President if the Congress so directs by concurrent resolution."

The War Powers law was passed during the time of the Vietnam War to try to give Congress more specific control over actions amounting to war because the Vietnam conflict was not conducted pursuant to a declaration of war by Congress under Article 1, section 8 of the constitution.  President Richard Nixon vetoed the bill, arguing that Congress could use its power to appropriate money and stop funding the war.  However, Congress overrode his veto by at least a two-thirds vote in the House and Senate, and the War Powers Resolution became law on 7 November 1973. 

 

Targeting Hizbullah - TTG

Last week Colonel Lang told us of the latest Middle Eastern goofiness of the Trump administration focusing on our declaring the IRGC a terrorist organization and Pompeo’s truly zany effort to turn the Lebanese government against Hizbullah. If not for the deadly seriousness of the potential consequences, our efforts to reshape the Middle East would be fodder for several Monty Python skits.

Why are we doing this? Well, there is the longstanding neocon addiction to treating the entire world as our personal plaything. There is also the unhealthy hold the Israelis and Saudis have on our body politic. Reinforcing this hold is the drive to hasten the rapture among large segments of the American evangelical community. I don’t think I’m alone in seeing this as a dangerous situation.

Pompeo’s latest buffoonery lead Colonel Lang and myself to wonder if the US and Israel are planning to take out the Hizbullah missile threat. That Hizhullah threat remains a knife in the heart of Israel’s myth of invulnerability. This threat is discussed in a JINSA opinion piece that appeared last month in “The Hill.” The JINSA piece called for US sanctions against Hizbullah-controlled Lebanese ministries. We’ll see if the US tries this approach now that Pompeo’s effort to convince Michel Aoun to turn his back on Hizbullah ended in abject failure. I’m sure the Pentagon has developed plans to attack Hizbullah’s missile arsenal. The Pentagon has plans foreverything. I’m also pretty damned sure these plans depend on first goading Hizbullah and/or the IRGC into providing a pretense for such an attack. Good luck with that. Not only are Hizbullah and the IRGC extraordinarily disciplined, but they also have non-kinetic ways of reacting to Western goading.   

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Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah slammed the U.S. decision to designate the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group, saying that Washington’s “audacity and folly” went beyond limits. “Blacklisting the IRGC is an evidence that it is strong and not weak and this is an expected move by the Great Satan,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech commemorating the day of “Resistance Wounded Fighters” on April 10.

Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the U.S. has blacklisted the IRGC, citing alleged terrorist activists by the Iranian group as a reason. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council retaliated to Washington’s decision by labeling the U.S. Army military as terrorist organization.

Nasrallah warned that Hezbollah and its allies from the so-called “axis of resistance” will not continue to deal with the U.S. hostile moves with “condemnation, denouncement and patience.” The Lebanese leader said the axis has other options on all battlefields. “Our choices are open but we will act calmly, with a cool head and at the right time, in all battlefields and arenas,” said Nasrallah.

The Hezbollah leader’s warning confirms the fears of some U.S. officials, who had warned that designating the IRGC as a terrorist group could endanger U.S. troops deployed in the Middle East. Despite this some experts openly state that the administration of US President Donald Trump is moving towards an escalation scenario because it contributes to its current political interests.  (South Front)

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I’m sure Nasrallah’s mention of “all battlefields and arenas” goes far beyond a targeting of US troops in the region. That would be unimaginative and exactly what the neocons desire. The old quote is “living well is the best revenge.” I think that’s the plan. “South Front” says that a strategic cooperation among Iran, Iraq and Syria on various projects is a nightmare for the US and Israel. Baghdad and Damascus will soon open the al Qaim crossing and, along with Tehran, plan on linking their national railways. China is interested in joining this as an extension of their One Belt, One Road initiative. Russia plans to assist Lebanon in the development of her offshore oil and gas fields. Of immediate importance Russia is moving to help resettle the 1.5 million Syrian refugees now living in Lebanon. That’s 1.5 million in a country with a population of six million. Now that’s a refugee crisis. This is of critical importance since Aoun has no intention of assimilating those refugees into Lebanese society given recent history and the nature of Lebanon’s political system.

Would Russia extend her defensive umbrella to include Lebanon if we attacked Hizbullah? Perhaps, but only reluctantly. Russia does not want a wider war. Syria, however, may be more ready to assist if needed. She owes Hizbollah. Even if Russia is reluctant to launch missiles against US and Israeli aircraft, she may be far less reluctant to employing her formidable radio-electronic combat capabilities. That alone could blunt the effectiveness of an attack on Hizbullah facilities.

In short, I feel an effective US-Israeli attack on Hizbullah missile forces is a pipe dream. Hizbullah won’t be goaded and Russian-Syrian aid, even limited aid, could make such an attack ineffective. Unfortunately, I don’t have confidence in the Trump administration’s ability to grasp this reasoning. 

TTG 

https://southfront.org/nasrallah-slams-u-s-blacklisting-of-irgc-says-washington-moves-will-not-remain-without-a-response/

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/435014-us-should-sanction-hezbollah-controlled-govts-to-counter

https://southfront.org/us-and-israel-nightmare-scenario-iraq-syria-iran-restart-their-strategic-cooperation-projects/