Sic Semper Tyrannis

The labyrinth known as Libya - TTG

When we last visited Libya, we saw the demise of Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi at the hands of various Libyan rebel forces. Those videos are now tagged with a graphic content warning on YouTube. His gruesome death with a knife up his arse, a bullet in his head and his carcass on display in a Misrata grocer’s freezer should have been a warning of what was to come. Even Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, on the day of his capture issued a strong warning to his captors about Libya’s new radical leaders and the risk of internal divisions. Of course he was only talking about particular Islamist leaders among the rebels. Even he didn’t foresee the danger of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).  Those jihadists had their moment, but neither of the current warring factions in Libya have any use for them. At least there’s that.

Ah yes. How could I forget Benghazi. We all remember the killing of Ambassador Stevens in Benghazi on 11 September 2012 and the ensuing four years of Congressional investigations. But that’s another story.  

Some time after the killing of Ambassador Stevens, the USG started developing plans to begin rebuilding a new Libyan Army starting in 2015. It definitely would have been a much tougher mission than rebuilding the Lebanese Army in 1983. It would have taken an entire SF Group and various supporting elements fully deployed for several years. Given our existing deployments at the time, I doubt this mission ever got past the initial planning stage… if that far. If we were at all serious about this endeavor, we should have started planning before the first American bomb fell on Qadaffi’s forces.

 

"Free at last!" Brexit, etc.

Brexit.  This is it!  Freedom for the UK!  It took the Irish 700 years to achieve independence for part of their island, but here it is for the UK in only 47 years.  The Scots may depart, preferring the yoke of Brussels, but then, the English and Welsh care not.  Brave souls.  Trumpy will be acquitted in his first senate trial today or maybe tomorrow and will announce the commencement of negotiations for the "greatest trade deal of all time" with Boris, his English doppelganger.  There is the pesky little matter of the British NHS, but some way around that problem will be found.  A US/British trade deal is obviously on the "right side of history."  pl

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/brexit-news-nigel-farage-gloats-eu-parliament-sings-goodbye-to-united-kingdom-2020-01-31/

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Israel/Palestine.  Recommend the linked article below on the multitudinous defects of the "deal of the century."  It mirrors my thinking and so must be a work of genius.  pl

https://prospect.org/world/dont-call-it-a-peace-plan-israel-palestine-trump/

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Turkish Policy.  IMO the Turks have decided that they don't want to fight the R+6 for a piece or all of Idlib Province in Syria.  They haven't really fought anyone since the Korean War and contrary to civilian delusions war is not just a matter of who has the most and biggest toys.  Practice counts a lot.  And, even Erdo may realize that the number and depth of the purges he has inflicted on the Turkish officer corps have certainly caused a decline in the quality of the force.  It is noticeable that when confronted up close by R+6 forces the Turks shy from actual combat.  I remain convinced that a lot of Turkish ambition in Syria is fueled by neo-Ottoman irredentism.  Syria was part of the empire for hundreds of years and the same thing is true of Libya until the Senussi Sufi order's revolt against Ottoman rule in 1911.  Turkey is now exporting pet jihadis from Syria to Libya.  Sounds like they are beginning to give up on long term acquisitions in Syria.  pl 

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/turkey-deployment-libya-threat-escalation-russia-townsend.html

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SpaceX TV and Space voyeurism.  One of the marvels of the modern world is the ability to watch rocket launches into earth orbit on Space X's TeeVee  channel.  You can follow the whole process from the count-down to first stage recovery to delivery of the payload to orbit on Space X Tee Vee live.   https://www.spacex.com/

And … You can get a free app for your phone at the App Store that will notify you when the next launch is ready.  pl 

Does history repeat itself? (FB Ali)

Does History repeat itself? Many thinkers, from ancient times to modern, from Polybius to Hegel and Santayana, have thought so. Karl Marx, alluding to Hegel’s formulation, sarcastically added the well-known bit about “the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce”. Whether one believes in this theory or not, it is interesting to look at the many parallels that exist between Ancient Rome and the United States of America today.

Both were republics, governed by elected representatives. Their involvement in wars gradually changed this into rule by monarchs. Their early rulers, tempered by their wartime experiences, generally governed wisely – Octavius/Augustus on the one hand, Roosevelt/Truman/Eisenhower on the other. However, they were followed by others of a different type, the successors becoming increasingly warped as time passed, and more and more power seeped into their hands. As power accumulated with the monarchs, conspiracies and coups multiplied. Emperors were assassinated, presidents were forced from office.

As the powers of the monarchs increased, and their quality deteriorated, the weirdness of their antics manifested themselves more and more. There was Tiberius and his ‘minnows’ in the Blue Grotto; and Clinton sporting with Monica in the Oval Office. Caligula made his horse a Consul; Trump makes his son-in-law his policy chief. Nero fiddled while Rome burned; Trump tweets all the time. Clumsy Claudius was a figure of fun for many in Rome; George Bush Junior was (and is) the same for many in the USA (for example, see David Letterman). But the snickering of their people did not stop either of them from launching wars and bringing death and destruction to many lands.

"U.S. establishes Libyan outposts ..." Washpost

(One of Freedom's Frontiersmen - 2016)

"Two teams totaling fewer than 25 troops are operating from around the cities of Misurata and Benghazi to identify potential ­allies among local armed factions and gather intelligence on threats, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive mission overseas.

The insertion of a tiny group of U.S. personnel into a country rife with militant threats reflects the Obama administration’s worries about the Islamic State’s powerful Libyan branch and the widespread expectations of an expanded campaign against it. For months, the Pentagon has been developing plans for potential action against the group, which has at least several thousand fighters in the coastal city of Sirte and other areas. And the U.S. personnel, whose ongoing presence had not been previously reported, is a sign of the acceleration toward another military campaign in Libya.

The mission is also an illustration of President Obama’s reliance on elite units to advance counterterrorism goals in low-visibility operations."  Wahpost

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Well, pilgrims, these are Green Berets, i.e., US Army Special Forces (not commando style SOF;  Delta, SEALS, USMC SOF, Rangers and other assorted cats and dogs).  How do I know that?  As has oft been writ on SST, the non-GB SOF types have no taste or skills for dealing with foreign people (especially irregulars) other than by fighting and killing them.

If it is the case that these descendants of JFKs "Freedom's Frontiersmen" as well as their French and UK colleagues are there to line up the various anti-IS groups against the true crazies, then I favor the idea.  They have done a great job in Northern Syria and Iraq with the Pesh Merga, SDF and YPG.

OTOH, I heard Missy Ryan, the author of this article, tell a PBS anchor today that the goals include teaching the Libyan "unity government" how to do better governance, do "reach out" to a wide variety of dissident political and tribal groups, advise on economic difficulties, etc.  Does this mean that the US has not understood that COIN is failed doctrine?  Are we really once again going to make a stupid effort to transform an alien society and make it be acceptable to the Borg and to Obama's revolutionary yearnings.  As I have screamed to the world the price to be paid for forcibly transforming another culture is much higher than we are willing to pay or should be willing to pay.  Will the program include guidance for transgender bathroom access?  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-establishes-libyan-outposts-with-eye-toward-offensive-against-islamic-state/2016/05/12/11195d32-183c-11e6-9e16-2e5a123aac62_story.html

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2009/12/counterinsurgency-a-much-failed-strategy.html

Libya Between the Lines

A two-part series in the New York Times (Feb. 28-29) gives details, some new, some not, on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's role in the 2011 decision to join France and England in attacking Libya. Ostensibly to protect civilians threatened by Qadafi, the joint venture under a UN resolution, ended in the death of Qaddafi, the failure of an interim government, the emergence of militia fighting, the entrance of ISIS, and today--chaos.  That is the first installment.

The second installment goes on to describe the after-life of this failure: efforts to pull Libya back together,  the increasing inattention by all parties, except the Libyans, to the growing disorder, failed efforts to rein in the militias, and the long-term consequences for the ME and Africa of the dispersal of Qaddafi's armory to Islamic forces.

What may be of particular interest here are the sources for the story, the influence (or lack thereof) by other Obama Administration officials, the role that Clinton and her deputies played in the decision, and the somewhat surprising, at least to me, claim that there was little official intelligence about Libya available as decisions were being made. Much of the "information" is said to have come from news stories.

I realize that many here are not Clinton fans. Be that as it may, what interests me is how the story lays out the decision and its aftermath.

Part 1. Hillary Clinton, "Smart Power and a Dictator's Fall."

Part 2. "A New Libya, 'with 'Very Little Time Left.'"            

Margaret Steinfels    

Islamic World Tour d'Horizon - 28 February 2016

" ... that state of affairs does not satisfy the SAA which ordered the Republican Guard’s 102nd Brigade and 416th Regiment to fully liberate Eastern Guta from the Islamists. SAA is supported by National Defense Force (NDF) militias and Palestinian Liberation Army units.

It appears that the attack will be focused on the Tel Ferzat heights and the agricultural college campus. These are the militants’ last strongholds in eastern Damascus.

Latakia Province

Commandos of the 103rd Republican Guard Brigade are performing beyond reproach in Latakia’s north-east, where they are operating with naval infantry and volunteer formation support. Nearly whole region is now clear of the militants.

Syrian commandos forced Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar ash-Sham off two key heights and approached the border with Turkey which is now only 2km distant. A few more heights remain to be cleared of the Islamists.

Aleppo Province

Earlier reports that the main supply road to Aleppo was cleared proved premature. Tiger Forces did indeed clear most of the towns along the “road of life”, however it still remains under militant fire.

Tiger Forces with Hezbollah support finally threw ISIS out of Al-Hamam. The commandos entered the village last evening and then forced the militants to abandon it. Militant counter-attack had failed, with the loss of 30 of their comrades. Additional 40 were wounded.

Stubborn fighting against ISIS is ongoing along the Sheikh Hilal–Ithriyah road, which is a secondary supply route into Aleppo. SAA forces received significant air support which struck militant reinforcement columns coming from Hama. It is expected the opening of both routes is only a matter of hours, and then the path to Aleppo will be once again clear."  South Front 

http://southfront.org/syria-battlefields-survey-february-27/

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I am beginning to appreciate this "cease-fire."  In essence the R+6 war against jihadis will continue as will the US coalition struggle with IS.  At the same time TTG's favorite Kurds (with the help of our GB brothers) will press forward with efforts as fine as the recent victory at Shaddadi.  Politically, the Russian coordination center at Lattakia has hung out the welcome banner for more or less non-jihadi resistance groups.  this is splitting off those groups from the jihadis whom, we should remember, are still legitimate targets and objectives for air and ground action.  At the same time, a somewhat reduced operational tempo provides an opportunity to rest and refit troops/militias committed too long to continuous combat.   pl

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"Suicide bombers and gunmen attacked Iraqi army and police posts on the western outskirts of Baghdad on Sunday, killing at least 12 security forces and seizing positions in a grain silo and a cemetery, officials said.

The largest assault near the capital in months was still raging, said security officials who blamed Islamic State. A news agency that supports Islamic State said the group had launched a "wide attack" in Abu Ghraib.

Suicide bombers in vehicles and on foot attacked government positions 25 km (15 miles) from the centre of Baghdad and next to the international airport, government officials said.

Dozens of militants driving Humvees and pickup trucks fixed with machine guns attacked from the nearby Islamic State-controlled areas of Garma and Falluja, army and police sources added."  Reuters

http://in.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-iraq-idINKCN0W10EV

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Well, so much for Iraqi government domination of the western approaches to Baghdad.  The notion is laughable.  IS in Northern Arabia may collapse from defeat in Syria and at the hands of the YPG Kurds.  In that event the Iraqi "army" may re-occupy Mosul but that would be problematic in itself since IMO the Shia government in Baghdad will continue to oppress any and all Sunnis available for oppression.  Like a leopard they cannot change their essential spots.  pl

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" ... the Saudis may be applying pressure to secure the release of a member of the royal family held in Lebanon since October on drug charges. Abdul-Mohsen al-Waleed Al Saud was detained in Beirut after authorities seized two tons of amphetamine Captagon pills before they were loaded onto his private plane.

On Wednesday, a Lebanese prosecutor indicted Al Saud of dealing and using drugs. Other analysts suggest Saudi Arabia may be seeking to compensate for its declining hold over Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia’s influence has been dwindling in Lebanon since early 2011 when Sa’ad Hariri was ousted. For the past two years, the Saudi-backed March 14 coalition has failed to see one of their leaders elected president. Now they are nominating legislator Suleiman Franjieh, a close ally of Hezbollah, for the country’s top job.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah is boosted by recent victories in Syria. The resistance movement is fighting alongside the Syrian army against Takfiri militants supported by Saudi Arabia and its allies. “Saudi Arabia is feeling for a good reason that its influence in Lebanon is on the decline,” said Ayham Kamel, a Middle East expert with the political risk and consulting firm, Eurasia Group. “The Saudi message is don’t think you can translate victories in Syria and control the system in Lebanon. We have plenty of leverage through our economic muscles,” Kamel told the Associated Press."  South Front

http://southfront.org/lebanon-will-not-become-saudi-emirate-hezbollah/

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The Saudis should stick to their usual practice of the widespread distribution of money in Lebanon for the purpose of buying influence.  This is their customary form of action and Lebanese of all confessions and classes are more than willing to participate.   At the same time, most Christians, Sunni Muslims, Hizbullah and all the other associated Shia forces in Lebanon are determined to remain free of Saudi political control.  This determination will not, of course, prevent the acceptance of Saudi money delivered through various "laundries."  pl 

Fill in the [many] blanks. A few more blanks....1/29/16

What's going on here?

This morning's (1/26/16) NYTimes has an editorial reporting that the U.S. and some European allies are about to take on ISIS in Libyia. And yes, (even!) the Times is suspicious.

Quoting General Joseph Dunford, head of the joint chiefs, the editorial reports: "that military officials were 'looking to take decisive military action' against the Islamic State... in Libya." According to the editorial, Congress is taking a pass on any declaration of war, and the Obama Administration thinks "it would be nice, but not necessary,"  if Congress did.

The Times Editorial. Times News Story (1/22/16): "U.S. and Allies Weigh Military Action Against ISIS in Libya"

Margaret Steinfels

P.S. An update and more fill in the blanks...this time in Iraq and Syria:

"In meetings with President Obama's national security team in recent weeks, military officials have told the White House that they believe they have made significant progress in the fight against the Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria, administration officials said. But to deal a lasting blow to the extremist Sunni militancy, [ISIS], they believe that additional forces will be needed to work with Iraqi, Kurdish and Syrian opposition fighters on the ground in the two countries.

"In the past, the Pentagon’s requests for additional troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan have been met with skepticism by Mr. Obama, and his aides have said he has resented what he has regarded as efforts to pressure him. But the rise of the Islamic State has alarmed the White House, and a senior administration official said Thursday that the president is willing to consider raising the stakes in both Iraq and Syria."

Front page stories look to be a piece of the pressure campaign.

America's Client Paralysis (by CP)

Al Qaeda flag	Twin Towers	US SF in Afghanistan	Iraqi state, toppled
Mission accomplished!	Al Qaeda in Iraq flag	Saddam hanged	Petraeus, surging
Riding the Arab Spring I, Libya	Ghaddafi lynched	al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb flag	Al Qaeda in Mali demolishing Sufi Shrines in Timbuktu
... in the meanwhile: The Caucasus Emirate flag	... in the meanwhile: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula flag	Al Qaeda in Yemen	Riding the Arab Spring II, Syria
Jabhad al-Nusra flag	Jabhat al-Nusra at work	ISIS Flag	ISIS at work

I'll start with a brief, naturally abbreviated and selective, narrative of some of America's late and ongoing misadventures in the Middle East since 9/11 and the GWOT:

♦ The GWOT

The US started the GWOT after 9/11 to go after Al Qaeda into Afghanistan, then took a detour to Iraq, witnessed, gleefully, how Saddam was executed, even though he was a mere bystansder to 9/11, but why bother. Victory! To make a long, sad story short, the US messed the place up for good, and then had to have Grand Captain David Petraeus 'do the surge' and preside over the US 'victory' over Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). In the meanwhile, Afghanistan drags on, and on May 2, 2011, Bin Laden is killed in Abottabad. Victory!

♦ The US trying to ride the Tiger Arab Spring

The idea must been to end up at the 'right side of history' and not wanting to be seen as propping up authoritarians in the Middle East. One could also say the US mistook mobs on the streets for protest, and elections for democracy. Make your pick.

In any event, during the Arab spring the US eventually intervened in Libya, with US allies UAE and Qatar providing Jihadi shock troops, and European allies sending special forces and providing  close air support. In October 2011 Ghaddafi is lynched, leaving HC excited with glee. Victory! Well, not really, if a stable country was the goal.

♦ ... just one more dictator and surely Freedom™ will reign!

Not content with just that, the US took aim at Syria and the US and their allies then funneled arms and Jihadis from Libya to Syria to continue the fight. They seriously underestimated Assad's staying power. As a result the US, incapable of a to reset once 'regime change' has been uttered, habitually doubled down on support and diatribe as the civil war escalated under a continuous influx of foreign money, arms and fighters - courtesy of Turkey, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and the US.

Because of serious rebel setbacks, and the disturbing emergence of ISIS, an offspring of that very same Al Qaeda in Iraq that was suppoosedly defeated by Petraeus in the 2007 surge, Petraeus in 2015, straight faced, suggested arming Al Qaeda to fight Assad ISIS, irrespective of the fact that many of these folks had sworn allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri (the butcher of New York and that other guy behind 9/11) and who would probably, if one dared to ask, say that Osama Bin Laden was a martyr and a hero.

♦ Strategic Incoherence

So, Al Qaeda, the killers of 9/11, made it from nemesis to ally in just a decade, with the general fighting their offspring in 2008 proposing to arm their successors in 2015.

How to better capture the utter strategic incoherence that afflicts US policy at the moment?

RECIPE FOR DISASTER: How supporting Syrian rebels put US foreign policy into disarray

Part 1: A Quick Overview (2011-2014)

By Patrick BAHZAD

It has been more than four years now since the start of Syrian civil war. Some 200 000 dead and 4 000 000 refugees later, you might think the US could have come up with a comprehensive and reasonable strategy for putting an end to the bloodbath. You would be wrong though. The war is not over and various factors play a role in its continuation. On the one hand, these factors are linked to local, regional and international interests and players. But what also plays into the hands of those who want to avoid a peaceful settlement, is the failure of US strategies with regard to the conflict.

This is not just a question of focusing on ISIS first and taking care of Syria second. You can't solve one without considering the implications on the other. But in Syria in particular, the policy of supporting so-called "moderates" is one more reason why US influence on the outcome of the war is dwindling. Yet, all of this could have been foreseen and avoided. Chances are however, US failure in those areas is going to continue.

Everything had started with the tidal wave of supposedly democratic revolutions that came along with the "Arab Spring" of 2011. Sweeping across North-Africa and the Middle-East, a grassroots movement of young people craving for democracy, modernization, economic opportunity and basically Western style freedom proved to be unstoppable, or so we were told.

Tunisia and Egypt showed the way. Others followed. In some cases, like in Libya, we had to give them a hand. It took a little longer, as well as some serious NATO airstrikes, but it worked out fine in the end. Once Gaddafi was gone, most of us looked away ... Another "Mission Accomplished" feeling. Libya was free and that was the end of the story as far as the West was concerned. The gates were wide open for a new dawn from Tripoli to Benghazi. One year later though, Benghazi was in the headlines again, for an alltogether different matter. But that is another story.

The "Arab Spring" as model for regime change in Syria

The blue-print for these "Arab Spring" revolutions should have worked in Syria as well, according to the Beltway experts. Bashar al-Assad, the ex-ophtalmologist turned "butcher of Damascus", wouldn't last much longer than the Ben Ali's and  Mubarak's of this world. From the first semi-peaceful demonstrations in a small city on the border to Jordan, to the first fire-fights against a rag-tag army of allegedly secularist freedom fighters, it took only a couple of weeks.

All over the summer of 2011, and especially after the ouster of Gaddafi in Libya, the mainstream media had nothing better to do than feed us videos and accounts of anonymous rebel groups, with exotic names and less structure than the Mexican army of 1910, fighting against Evil. The supporters of covert regime change – whether they were in the Gulf, in Turkey, in Western Europe or in the US – quickly realized the need for a unified command, both from a military and from a PR point of view.

RUSSIAN EXPEDITIONARY FORCE IN SYRIA - ANOTHER POSSIBLE EXPLANATION

By Patrick BAHZAD

Following Parts 1 and 2 of "Russian expeditionary force in Syria", posted recently on SST, various narratives were offered as an explanation for this alleged move and its potential implications. Col. LANG gave the most up-to-date summary of the recent sequence of events. While it is difficult to assess the scope of the Russian involvement, it would be premature to assume a large scale Russian deployment is underway. As Col. LANG duly notes, what seems beyond doubt is that "Russia has decided to raise the level of its intervention and risk in the Syrian Civil War" and that "the ultimate scope and size of that increased role are unclear as yet".

Rumours, comments and half-truths are very common in fluid environments such as this. Various news-outlets are offering different theories regarding a large-scale Russian operation about to start in Syria. With information and evidence being often sketchy at best, it is most likely that various players in and outside the region are trying to push their agenda, either vis-à-vis Syria or vis-à-vis Russia. Trusting partisan and biased information, i.e. MSM accounts quoting "official sources", would obviously be a mistake. That is why this piece offers a totally different read on the reasons and goals of the Russian move, just for the sake of argument.

Preventing a another Libya

Before getting to the core of the scenario that could explain events on the ground, it may be useful to recall the Libyan precedent: a "no fly zone" implemented by NATO under a UN-resolution was hijacked – in the Russians' view – to support the anti-Gaddafi insurgents and give them close air support for several months, until the Libyan dictator was finally ousted from power.

Ever since the start of the civil war in Syria, the Russians have always made it clear that they would not tolerate another version of the Libyan precedent. In 2013 already, Russian officials made numerous statements formally objecting to a "no fly zone". A few very strongly worded declarations by President Putin himself didn't leave any doubt as to the Russians' willingness to actively oppose such a development.

What has happened in Syria in recent months ?

Looking at recent military operations in Syria, Col. LANG rightly observed that due to Coalition airstrikes in Northern Syria, the Syrian air force was unable to fly combat missions in support of their ground forces, which partially explains the Jihadi insurgents' gains in the region of Aleppo, as well as the extension of the Kurdish YPG "liberated areas" in Northern Syria.

BLAST FROM THE PAST: August 2005 - the Al Qaeda chemical attack that never happened …

By Patrick Bahzad

In the last few days, a flow of media reports surfaced claiming that the "Islamic State" had launched chemical attacks against Kurdish fighters in Northern Iraq, using shells containing mustard gas. Even if the news of the alleged use of such weapons by al-Baghdadi's troops seems absolutely possible, there must be something about the month of August, chemical attacks and the Middle-East ... Two years ago, almost to this day, news of another terrible attack almost triggered Western intervention in the Syrian quagmire. Unknown to most however, August 2013 in Eastern Damascus was not the first and only instance in which a large scale and deadly attack using a chemical agent may have happened in the post-2003 madhouse the Middle-East has turned into.

While US Central Command has been very careful in its reaction to the recent news about prohibited weapons being used against the Kurds, with its spokesman Col. Ryder stating that "we really don't know what if anything may have been used", major news outlets – the LA Times, the Wall Street Journal and Fox News to name but a few - were very quick to pick up that story, often adding as an explanation that the chemical agent must have come from Bashar al-Assad's allegedly destroyed stockpile of WMDs. 

Events of Eastern Ghouta in August 2013

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which had already supervised the destruction of the Syrian arsenal of chemical and biological weapons in 2013-2014, is now going to launch an inquiry into this supposed breach of international law. We will see what conclusions the OPCW can draw from its analysis on the ground. Most likely, nothing conclusive will surface and no smoking gun will turn up … What is more interesting about this story is that it emerged two years exactly after the Eastern Ghouta events of August 2013, which almost triggered an Western intervention in the Syrian civil war.

What happened back then is still open to a certain level of conjecture. Western intelligence agencies and NGOs quickly condemned a Syrian military operation using a nerve agent (sarin) against insurgents and civilian populations in the South Eastern suburbs of Damascus. A special investigation by the UN however refrained from specifically designating which party could have launched the attack and an independent review by the MIT even alleged the rockets used to deliver the deadly payload could only have been launched – if at all – from rebel controlled areas.

The UN report also noted a couple of inconsistencies in the evidence that was collected at the time in Damascus, inconsistencies that have not been explained so far by any party involved. The death toll of the Ghouta events is also open for debate, with the casualties varying between 287 victims (according to French intelligence), 355 (according to the NGO "Médecins sans Frontières"), 502 (according to the "Syrian Observatory for Human Rights") and 1702 (according to the "Free Syrian Army").

A Uniquely French Solution to Libya by Harper

 

While the United States remains hopelessly caught up in the fantasy about "nation building," as evidenced by our decades-long adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan (and now, looking ahead, in Syria as well?), the French have demonstrated a clear understanding of the difference between targeted counterinsurgency and the permanent presence of a "nation building" program.  Perhaps they learned the proper lessons of Vietnam and Algeria, lessons that have evaded many American thinkers, such as Gen. David Petraeus, who remains enamored with the COIN/nation building approach, despite the stubborn message coming out of our Iraq and Afghanistan experiences. 

The French demonstrated their astuteness in the recent crisis in Mali, where French forces went in to support the government on a limited scale, for a limited duration, and accomplished a shift in the balance, which has enabled the Mali government and military to bring the country back under a semblance of control. 

This same approach could be beneficial in Libya, where a Salafist insurgency has created a deep and unending crisis. The elected government is, in effect, operating from quasi-exile, the capital is under the control of a coalition of Salafist groups, whose actual center of power is the Benghazi-Derna area of eastern Libya.  A concentrated French military action, targeted at the Benghazi-Derna stronghold of the jihadists could be sufficient to tilt the entire balance.  The French are more than capable of carrying out such a mission, and it would likely split the Salafists, who are only unified around a common opposition to the duly elected government.  Hardcore ISIS and Al Qaeda elements have always been able to recruit in the Benghazi-Derna area.  Knocking out their critical base and providing a limited residual mop-up presence could be the difference between success and failure. 

Libya has different demographics, geography and history/culture than Syria or Iraq.  It is tribal, relatively underpopulated and chaotic.   

Under the former presidency of Sarkozy, the French played a destructive role in promoting the ouster of Qadaffi and his ultimate execution.  A limited, targeted "correction" of that blunder might very well be the best option available at this moment.   I am open to suggestions, corrections, more indepth analysis.  What do you think?

Everything quiet on the Camp David front (by CP)

My mother always sais that, when we children were quiet, we usually tended to have  mischief on our minds. I guess, it isn't any different with interntational policy meetings of which you hear basically nothing, and of Camp David you heard basically nothing.

Gareth Porter reports, that the deal the Gulfies have apparently proposed to Obama at Camp David was that they would tolrate a US-Iranian deal only if they get to destroy all their links, real or imagined, to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. The US, concerned about Jihadis getting out of control again, apparently replied that that was ok only if they kept their pets on the leash and make sure that they don't crap on the carpet.

♦ A Salafist is a Salafist is a Salafist

The leader of Jabat al Nusra [JaN], Sheik al-Joulani was recently interviewed by Al Jazeera. JaN is the core force in the newly minted Army of Conquest.

While Al Jazeera asked Al-Joulani fawning questions, according to Syria Comment, Al-Joulani during the interview confirmed his allegiance to al-Qaida twice, saying that he receives orders from its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, all without follow up questions.

Al-Joulani went on to say that JaN's overall goals are overthrowing Assad and defeating Hezbollah, and that Syria would not serve as a base for an attack on the Americans or Europeans.

Just to make things perfectly clear, JaN soon after angrily denied having broken with Al Qaeda.

"Al-Nusra "completely denies reports of a break-up with Al-Qaeda," the group said in a statement released on Twitter.

 It said Al-Nusra "remains the backbone of jihadists" in Syria, "the first into battle, dedicated to unifying the ranks around sharia (Islamic law)... righting injustice and defending the disadvantaged".

It denied "completely all reports of a meeting with Qatari or other intelligence services or seeking Qatari or Gulf funding, as this is contrary to the principles on which Al-Nusra has been based from the start".

There is IMO little reason to believe that the Gulfies will be able to control their proxies. Porter is IMO absolutely right when he writes that the disavowal of global jihadist aims in the short run does not mean that the organization has abandoned those aims.

♦ After Assad - if Syria falls, Lebanon will burn

Assuming JaN makes more progress towards Lebanon, and succeeds in seizing Damascus and overthrowing the Syrian Government, there will be the question after the post-Assad order. I find it highly implausible that the group that did all the fighting will allow itself to be excluded from power. Historically it has rarely if ever worked that way. Why should it now?

Beyond that, JaN will likely continue in the mission and take on Hezbollah in their heartland, Lebanon.

SHORT AND SHARP: French Air Force Chief questioning anti-ISIS strategy

By Patrick Bahzad

On Wednesday, French Air Force Chief – General Denis Mercier – gave an interview to Lebanese newspaper "L'Orient le jour" and offered an interesting view on the ongoing anti-ISIS campaign as well as the current Coalition strategy aimed at fighting the "Islamic State".

 

The interview is interesting for several reasons. First of all, it can be considered the French armed forces' official take on the current strategy in Iraq and Syria, especially after the recent summit that was organised to discuss future measures (and the ensuing announcements made by the White House). General Mercier has been an effective fighter pilot and squadron leader. He also has extensive experience in planning and leading air campaigns, in so far as he was in charge of the French participation in the strikes against Libya in 2011. Finally, he has already been officially announced as the next Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT), based in Norfolk, Virginia.

Although SACT is as much a political command as it is an operational one, it nonetheless is a key player in NATO's restructuring towards the challenges of tomorrow, with the Command's mission being is basically to provide the conceptual framework for the conduct of future combined joint operations and define how future operations will be conducted. Previous Commanders of SACT include Gen. Lance Smith (USAF) and Gen. James Mattis (USMC).

For all these reasons, it's worth having a good look at Gen. Mercier's statements. According to him, the Coalition strategy is flawed and should be based more on the blue-print that was used against Gaddafi's Libya. Basically blasting US tactics, he said the USAF was wasting its time bombing “150 pick-up trucks a day” instead of focusing much more on "ISIS command and control structures". The General was being quoted as stating in particular that "in Libya, we went after Qaddafi's centres of gravity… it was by attacking these centres that we managed to topple Kadhafi, not by firing at 150 pick-up trucks a day. Otherwise we would still be there. It is exactly the same problem in Iraq today. We are only targeting the frontline".

The main issue, according to Gen. Mercier, is that IS' command structures are not necessarily in Iraq, but mostly in Syria now. The situation there is very sensitive, because any determined action against the "Islamic State" might also strengthen Bashar al-Assad, which the US want to avoid at any cost. The other side to the problem seems to be internal Iraqi politics, Baghdad having specifically asked that IS' centres not be hit on Iraqi territory. The reasons behind such demands could be diverse, but the current Iraqi government might fear some sort of backlash, like a major bombing campaign on the capital or attacks against the Shia south.

Regarding the performance of the air campaign however, Gen. Mercier seemed to confirm previous statements by US officials, going even a step further: "If the Coalition hadn't been there, quite frankly, this war would be over. ISIS would be in Baghdad now. Thanks to the airstrikes, we gave Iraqi forces some freedom of action for ground operations. That's it, but it is already a big achievement. Anything further is up to them".

No doubt, issues regarding the Shia sectarian militias are at the centre discussions currently held to determine the future course of action. What is also beyond doubt, is that sending in 450 US trainers into al-Assad airbase in Anbar province is not going to be enough …

---------------------------------------------

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/06/11/french-air-force-chief-criticises-usaf-bombing-tactics-in-syria/

 

Soft Power, or Regime Change à l'américaine (by CP)

 One commenter on this comittee recently remarked the following:

"Ukraine had an NGO driven bloodless coup (kind of). This coup was clearly the doing of the U.S. ... The CIA appears to have a record of incredible incompetence"

That is not so, not quite, and that deserves some elaboration.

♦ The CIA just doesn’t do coups anymore

Of course, Bush 43 authorised the CIA do do destabilisation missions in Iran to achieve regime change, so take that with a grain of salt. But today, regime change is largely run out of the State Department. In the 70s, the CIA's history of coups and regime change caught up with it and was met with a public backlash that culminated in the climatic Church comittee hearings.

The politicians who wanted to keep doing these things irrespective of that moved the programs out of sight, and shipped staff and shop over to other organisations and found new sources of funding.

Lest these programs be again interrupted through pesky "oversight" by elected representatives, the new venue needed to be outside the bodies of the executive branch. The solution was government funded NGOs in the mold of Germany's Parteinahe Stiftungen.

♦ Regime change à l'américaine is a group effort now

Today, to the extent they concern 'soft power', such activities are run by the State Department through surrogates - semi official (USAID, NED, NDI, IRI, CIPE and ACILS), contractors and public relations firms or (congenially) entirely private (Soros' Open Society Foundation) and professional activists (OTPOR veterans). This is being supported by sympathetic journalists (providing friendly coverage or joining the fight) and pundits, lobbies (especially the transatlantic ones - Marshal Fund, Atlantic Society etc.) and think tanks (think Freedom House etc).

The semi-independent 'NGO' character of USAID, NED, NDI, IRI, CIPE and ACILS guarantees continuity in the democratising mission even with changes in government. The diverse ideological thrust of each organisation also addresses different different segments in the society of "to be developed" countries. It also provides plausible deniability. Also, these programs may be run by genuine idealists, who are not serving the US government, let alone the CIA, and will not think of themselves that way.

A lot of US support to Poland's Solidarity movement during the Cold war went trough the AFL-CIO linked ACILS, who apparently were far better connected than the CIA.

In a nutshell, these bodies run their various programs autonomosly in a decentralised fashion. In the absence of intervention, they do so on auto-pilot in accordance with the bipartisan consensus (on regime change in Russia, Cuba, Venezuela etc pp), much like on tram lines - and they may not get every memo.

A perfect example for that is the recent case of USAID vs. Cuba in which USAID sponsored a free twitter-ish program to organise resistance to overthrow the Castros - while the US administration at the same time pursued normalisation with Castro's Cuba.

US House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Investigative Report on Benghazi

Adam L. Silverman

In case anyone is interested the House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence's Investigative Report on the Terrorist Attacks on US Facilities in Benghazi, Libya September 11-12, 2012 is attached below as a pdf. Anyone interested should read it themselves and make up their own minds based on the investigation - including whether we need another investigation. The report is only thirty-six pages long, so its not going to be a tremendously long read. Of specific interest will be Finding 14 on pp 30 and 31, as well as Findings 12 and 13 on the preceding pages. Just remember that by reading this you will be making yourself better informed than the news media, most members of Congress, and most Americans who are getting their news on this from the news media and members of Congress... 

Download Benghazi Report

BLAST FROM THE PAST: Expanding on operation "Mermaid Dawn" in Libya

By Patrick Bahzad

It's the weekend soon, and spring seems to be on its way in this part of the world, so why not have a bit of a light-hearted look at our impeccable record in the Middle-East and North-Africa … I'm kidding of course ! In recent exchanges I had with SST contributors and readers, the topic of the fall of Tripoli in August 2011 was mentioned. Almost four years have passed since operation "Mermaid Dawn" and it looks now as if the Pentagon algorithm that comes up with those unbelievable code names would have done a better job calling this "Dawn of the Evil dead" or, maybe more cynically, "Black Hawk Dawn" … Libya is a "Charlie Foxtrot" of epic proportions, that the acronym "FUBAR"  fails to describe with sufficient intensity.

Those who have been in the country before, during and after the toppling of Gaddafi will probably have a better idea of what's been going on – and going wrong – but before turning to an expanded description of what happened, why it happened, and what the consequences are going to be, Let's just have a look at a tiny aspect of the military campaign that managed to oust the leader of the Libyan "Jamahiriya".

During the four months of intense NATO airstrikes that took out almost anything that could be bombed between Benghazi and Tripoli, neither the rebellion nor the Western coalition or their Gulf States' allies managed a breakthrough. What was officially a "No Fly Zone" operation carried out under the umbrella of the United Nations (pursuant to resolution 1973) was in fact a campaign of targeted airstrikes aimed at knocking out Gaddafi's armoured units and opening the way for the rebel and insurgent groups from Eastern Libya to drive into Tripoli in their Toyota pick-up trucks … A masterpiece of tactical and strategic planning again, no doubt, one that was probably whispered into our leaders' ears by people with brilliant credentials, deep pockets and – supposedly – great connections to the opposition inside the Libyan Security apparatus itself.

Much to the dismay of the Chiefs of Staff in D.C., London and Paris though, Gaddafi didn't seem very impressed and neither were the troops that remained loyal to him, contrary to what had been expected and anticipated. The West – and the token nations of the Arab Gulf – seemed to head for a dead-lock. Fortunately – from a military point of view – the French came up with a plan.

French tactical thinking

As much as one enjoys a joke about the "military prowess" of the French – courtesy of German Wehrmacht in WWII – anybody familiar enough with the way French armies have conducted operations over the centuries know that their sometimes suicidal sense of arrogance and overconfidence can only be toppled by one thing, which is the absolute cynicism and "do or die" approach, whatever the costs or consequences, of their way of war.

Asked one day what the difference had been in fighting first the French and later the US, Vietnamese general Nguyên Giáp stated that in a guerrilla war – something we call today "asymmetric warfare" – fighting the Americans was "peanuts, compared to fighting the French". Not that the US grunt was less of a fighting man, but the French – probably due to their having to do more with less – used every dirty trick in the book to get the job done. They still failed after the debacle of Dien Bien Phu, which was another of those examples of overconfidence that French military history is riddled with.

Regarding the war in Libya however, the traditional ability for "out of the box thinking" that is sort of a trademark of French COs on the ground was key to unlocking a situation that looked dangerously close to heading for compromise at the negotiating table.

The US as Shiva, Lord of Destruction and Renewal

We are often told (by Barack Obama among others) that our ancestors sought a "more perfect union" in the creation of the United States.  The implication is that they sought a worldly and more or less secular utopia.  They did not.  The contemporary meaning in those words from the constitution of the United States was that the framers sought a more efficient and effective government than that which had existed under the Articles of Confederation.  The framers were solely concerned with the practicalities of government in their new country.  The "more perfect union" phrase is one of a number of goals listed and is clearly not intended as the governing theme of the Constitution.

Having chosen to misunderstand the preamble to the constitution,  and therefore the "purpose" of America, much of our ruling class now profess to believe that it is the purpose of the country to "reform" our society to their taste and to inflict the same norms on the rest of the world.  To that end it is held to be more or less self-evident that ancient motivations for international policy are at an end and that all, all of mankind should re-organize itself to our taste.

In pursuit of that belief the United States in the 21st Century seeks revolutionary change everywhere and to accomplish that has been willing and continues to be willing to pay very high prices in blood and treasure even unto the risk of nuclear war with those with whom we can truly commit mutual suicide.

 

Tour d'Horizon - 18 February 2015

A television channel run by Lebanese group Hezbollah, which is fighting alongside pro-government units, reported that the Syrian army had taken control of areas north of Aleppo. The Observatory said Hezbollah was involved in the battle.

The pro-government al-Watan newspaper said on Monday that government forces aimed to completely surround the city this week in a major offensive against insurgent groups.

In December mainly Islamist insurgent factions in Aleppo grouped together to form Jabhat al-Shamiyya -- the Levant Front -- an attempt at unity among their fighters. Last month the Western-backed rebel group Hazzm movement joined the alliance after coming under pressure from Nusra Front.

Recent Syrian army progress in the area has reduced the chances of a truce between the government and disparate insurgent groups, diplomats say. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/17/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUSKBN0LL0JQ20150217

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As TTG might say, time for a little soldier speak, the SAA might not want to yalk to the people they and HB are defeating?

Well, no s--t pilgrims!  Local truces are breaking out all over the country outside the IS controlled areas.  The rebel owned parts of Aleppo seem to have been sealed off.  Why talk to the rebels?  Just starve them out.  Aleppo has been besieged many times and that was the usual methodology.  pl

***********

"In a separate development on Tuesday, the influential Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr announced he was withdrawing his forces from an umbrella group of Shia militia fighting IS alongside the Iraqi army.

He cited what he called the bad behaviour of other militia within the Popular Mobilisation Forces, whom he accused of 'wreaking havoc through murdering, kidnapping and violating sanctuaries'.

Shia militia have been accused of kidnapping and killing scores of Sunni civilians since Islamic State launched an offensive in northern Iraq last June that saw it seize large swathes of the country.

 Elsewhere, there are reports at least 35 more Egyptian Christians are feared to have been kidnapped by jihadists in retaliation for air strikes on targets in Libya.

Militants from the Islamic State and Ansar Al-Sharia are understood to have rounded up dozens of farm workers in the wake of bombings by Cairo, it was reported by local media.

The move is believed to be a direct response to strikes by Egyptian warplanes yesterday which came after fanatics released a horrific video showing the beheading of 21 Christians on a beach."  Daily Mail

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2957471/ISIS-burn-45-people-death-captured-Iraqi-town-Baghdadi-Islamists-attack-homes-security-forces-families.html#ixzz3S8482Bhs 

----------------

They will kill the 35 as well.  IMO the conduct of IS is so far  outside the scope of even "normal" jihadism as to make them justifiably subject to the most extreme measures.  To some extent I think they are trying to provoke the US into a group of wars that can be used as mobilization propaganda across the world of Islam.  Sadly, they will probably succeed because their deeds are so horrific and their stance is so uncompromising that they cannot be ignored.  Imagine what will happen when they capture US soldiers.  Imagine.  pl 

***********

 "The 21 decapitations pushed Sisi into open action, expanding his battle against Islamist militancy in Libya not long after he appeared to be gaining the upper hand against militants in the Sinai Peninsula who support Islamic State.

On Tuesday, he called for a United Nations resolution mandating a U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to intervene in Libya.

Ahead of a U.N. Security Council meeting on Wednesday on the situation in Libya, Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri met on Tuesday with ambassadors from the council's five veto-wielding powers - the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

Since the fall of strongman Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, a number of Islamist movements have taken hold in Libya. Recently, some have declared ties to Islamic State and claimed high-profile attacks in what appears to be an intensifying campaign."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/18/us-egypt-libya-idUSKBN0LM1JK20150218

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Libya has proven itself incapable of self stabilization.  IMO there will be no choice but for a UN sponsored force to occupy Libya.  pl 

 

 

Will Egypt seek to occupy Libya?

"The footage shows a group wearing orange overalls being forced to the ground and then decapitated.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has said Egypt reserves the right to respond in any way it sees fit.

IS militants claim to have carried out several attacks in Libya, which is in effect without a government.

However, with many armed groups operating in Libya, it is not clear how much power IS actually wields."  BBC

-------------------

Egypt began a program of air attacks in Libya today.  I would imagine that is just a beginning.

Will Egypt seek to occupy Egypt to put paid to the various Jihadi factions?  It is quite possible that this will happen.  Is Egypt capable of carrying out such an operation?

I do not think so.  pl 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-31481797

 

A - C minus for the Children's Crusade this week

 

"Backing this stance, Lavrov said: "If... there are plans to combat Islamic State on the territory of Syria and other countries, it is indispensable that it is done in cooperation with legitimate authorities (there)."

Having long been denounced by Washington and others for protecting Assad, Lavrov made clear that Russia now feels vindicated.

"At one time we were accused of supporting Bashar al-Assad and preventing his overthrow.... Now no one is talking about that," he said.

The Americans and Europeans were now starting to acknowledge "the truth they have long recognized in private conversations: namely that for the region and for the interests of the West, the main threat is not the regime of Bashar al-Assad but the possible threat of seizure of power by terrorists in Syria and other states of the region.""  Reuters 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/25/us-syria-crisis-russia-idUSKBN0GP14J20140825

****************** 

"Western alarm about ISIS, the extremist group that calls itself the Islamic State and controls a swath of territory across the Syria-Iraq border, has spiked since it released a video showing an ISIS fighter beheading the American journalist James Foley last week.

Mr. Moallem condemned the killing of Mr. Foley and suggested that a failed raid into Syria by American Special Operations forces seeking to free him could have succeeded with Syrian government help.

“If there had been coordination beforehand, I tell you that the chance of failure would have been weak,” he said.

The United States has been conducting airstrikes on ISIS positions in Iraq — an effort that officials have suggested could extend into Syria. Last week, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, said that ISIS could not be defeated in Iraq without attacks on its bases in Syria.

Responding to that possibility, Mr. Moallem said any such strikes launched unilaterally would be considered an act of war."  NY Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/world/middleeast/syria-declares-its-readiness-in-backing-efforts-to-fight-jihadists.html?_r=0

***************

"President Obama has authorized surveillance flights over Syria, a precursor to potential airstrikes there, but a mounting concern for the White House is how to target the Sunni extremists without helping President Bashar al-Assad"  NY Times

 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/world/middleeast/obama-syria-ISIS.html?_r=0

---------------------------

 "Lordy, Lordy," as the "Old Lady from South Carolina might say."  (copyright pending)  "It gives one the vaypuhs.  What to  do? What to do?  That nasty, tricky Assad man, and his Rooshun friends...  Why wasn't Assad gone three yeahs ago?  All the expuhts at WINEP and ISW and in the retahred ambassaduh boneyahd said he would be gone.  And he is still heah!   Nobody at lunch at the Cosmos Club evah said that he might still be heah.  I will ask John but I am shuah they nevah said anythin' about him still bein' heah to plague us."

This she might say, but Moallam made it clear in his statement yesterday that Syria is ready to welcome cooperation with the US against IS, but failing that Syria will treat such air operations as a breach of the peace.  Syria knows it has no chance of resisting US air power but what they will undoubtedly do is go to the UN and international courts with a complaint that the US and friends are waging aggressive war against Syria.  That will be an embarassment.

On a different subject, I heard Mike Barnicle of Boston Globe fame, pronounce on MJ today that the US must have known of the Egyptian and UAE air attacks at Tripoli. Mike knows this because he watches spy stories on the TeeVee and believes the USIC to be all knowing.  I guess Sister Mary Margaret (or whatever her cover name was) never told him that only God is omniscient.    BTW, what the hell do we think we are accomplishing in threatening Egypt and the UAE over their efforts to fight Islamists in Libya?  What are we doing!!  Ah, I see, the toys have escaped from the toy box and the grad school seminar that is the Children's Crusade (Obama Administration) are "acting out" as the mommies say.  pl

Semi-Breaking, but Good News: Benghazi Edition

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

BBC news is reporting that the US has captured Ahmed Abu Khattala - the ring leader of the attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi, Libya. He was captured two days ago by US Special Operations Forces and the announcement was made earlier today. The conspiracy theories have, of course, already begun - so strap on your tin foil hats, its going to be a long news cycle!

* Adam L. Silverman, PhD is the Cultural Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Comments on the NYT Benghazi Piece.

It is discouraging to hear media people marvel that there apparently was no AQ connection to the Benghazi attacks.  It has always been true that Sunni jihadism is a movement rather than a group.  Get it?  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/2013/benghazi/#/?chapt=0

pl

Ignatius on Benghazi and "magic" gunships

"As for armed drones or AC-130 Spectre gunships, officials say that they were too far away to help. Unclassified data put the range of Predator and Reaper armed drones at 770 miles and 1,150 miles, respectively. The nearest known base for armed drones, in Djibouti, is about 1,700 miles from Benghazi. Regarding the Spectre gunships, Little said: “No AC-130 was within a continent’s range of Benghazi.”"  David Ignatius

-----------------------------------------

Yes, nasty embarassments result from; distances and times and numbers of thingies.  That's what adequate risk assesments, measuring distances on maps, figuring out tonnages and throughputs of supplies are all about.  I spent months at the Armed forces Staff College in 1974 beginning to learn how to plan expeditions large and small.  How to "get there with the most men," supplies and sustainable fire power was always the "name of the game."  This will always be the name of the game.

It may well have been impossible to make that "consulate" hard enough to make it capable of holding out until help came.  Does that mean that the place should have been abandoned?  This is not necessarily the case.  Sometimes the national interest requires the acceptance of a lot of risk.  Ask soldiers about that.  Ask them that rather than chanting the meaningless mantra of your thanks at them. 

Should scarce national level assets like Hercules gunships (AC-130) be dedicated to stake-outs for the purpose of protecting little posts like this one at Benghazi?  There are 25 such gunships in the whole USAF. 

If such aerial firepower had been available should it have been used against unknown enemies on the ground without regard to the effect on the inhabitants of Benghazi?

These are real questions.  These are questions that should be answered We should be talking about  these factors not some Baron Munchausen nonsense about magic carpets that span the globe in an instant.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-benghazi-questions-the-administration-must-answer/2012/10/30/02d02538-22e2-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_story.html

Could Benghazi have been saved that day?

Let us have a discussion on the subject of whether or not reinforcements were realistically available during the attacks.  pl

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/26/panetta-on-benghazi-attack-could-not-put-forces-at-risk/

Overrun in Benghazi

 
 

"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday said the first line-of-duty death of a U.S. ambassador since the Carter Administration was on her. "I take responsibility," Clinton told CNN's Elise Labott during a brief trip to Lima, Peru. "I'm in charge of the State Department's 60,000-plus people all over the world, 275 posts. The president and the vice president wouldn't be knowledgeable about specific decisions that are made by security professionals. They're the ones who weigh all of the threats and the risks and the needs and make a considered decision.""  The Atlantic

--------------------------------

Hillary Clinton properly took the rhetorical "spear" for this.  As she says, she is responsible for everything that happens in her department of the US Government.  As she also said, there was very little chance that POTUS or VPOTUS would have known anything of the details of security in Benghazi unless something spectacular occurred before the fact to alert them.  The assumption would have been made by them that State Department administrative services would respond to incidents as appropriate.  Does that seem odd?  It should not.  The US Government is too big and wildly articulated for it to function any other way.  State Department security consultants had recommended greater security.  Security consultants always recommend greater security.  Those recommendations justify their contracts.  Whether or not work gets done in hardening particular facilities is largely a matter of available budgeted funds.  Priorities have to be set in an environment of world-wide threat and a Congress that has always liked to pare down State Department requests for money.  This is in notable contrast to the largesse heaped on Defense and the intelligence community.  Bottom Line:  Some mid level person in the State Department probably gave more work in Banghazi a lower priority than proved prudent. Whoever made that decision should be held accountable for it, not because of some lack of virtue in the decision, but rather to make others more alert to such situations.

The Romney campaign is doing everything it can to make a moral issue of this unfortunate event.  How sad!  They should listen to the appeals of Stevens' father for a dignified response.

Will this be a significant factor in the outcome of the election? I doubt it.  The American electorate is actually too smart to be deceived on this.  pl

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/10/the-amazing-story-of-what-happened-in-libya/263597/#

The fruits of the Arab Spring

Fouad Ajami  wrote "The Dream Palace of the Arabs" a couple of years back.  Bernard Lewis is the author of "What went Wrong." 

The central thesis of both books is the same.  This is the notion that Muslims generally and Arabs in particular suffer from a collective belief that the material and financial superiority of the West is unnatural, ungodly and fated to disappear with the emergence of a world wide human condition that represents the will of God.

This viewpoint is often crudely represented by the endless power point presentations sold by contracters to governments on the subject of the jihadi obsession with the establishment of a world-wide "caliphate."

The events of the past week, events stimulated by the TV trailer disgrace, tend to support Lewis and Ajami in their view. 

The reaction of the mobs across the world, even unto the Antipodes, is grossly exagerated, disproportionate and obviously fueled by a boundless hatred for America that makes a mockery of all the social science gibberish about deprivation, oppression, etc. 

Last year it was generally assumed in the West that removal of authoritarian governments in the Arab World would result in accession to power of westernized elites who hold dear the political philosophy of the post Enlightenment West.

That has not happened.  In the last century (20th) the liberals failed miserably at the polls in Iraq.  In Egypt the liberals are  a political joke and not enough of a factor to be worth discussing.  In Tunisia, possibly the most Westernised of all Arab countries, it is necessary to withdraw most of our diplomatic mission from fear of their safety.

Nevertheless, the Washington Post persists in the jacobin doctrine of the neocon "freedom agenda."  According to the Post all we have to do is "stick with" the westernized liberals and all will be well.  This is the triumph of theory over experience.

The Arab Spring has revealed that the Arab masses have a substantial inclination toward political Islamism in government.  Western media and governments, and particularly the USA helped and continue to help in the release of forces in the Arab World that consider the West to be "the other," the enemies of God, this god being the very special god of their dreams.

Is Mubarak still alive?  Did the inquisitors ever find the vast sums that the Mubaraks supposedy stole from the people with rocks in their hands outside the US Embassy in Cairo.  Perhaps we will remember the Mubaraks et al fondly in the depths of the Arab Winter.  pl

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-the-arab-world-why-a-movie-trailer-can-lead-to-violencewhy-cant-the-arab-world-accept-offenses-without-violence/2012/09/14/d2b65d2e-fdc8-11e1-8adc-499661afe377_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/washingtons-role-as-mideast-countries-struggle-for-power/2012/09/14/08343bd2-fe83-11e1-b153-218509a954e1_story.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/16/us-withdraws-diplomats-tunisia-sudan?newsfeed=true

Some Updated Information on the Innocence of Muslims Affair

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

The Innocence of Muslims affair (incident?  incidents?) has become a fast moving story that seems to get more fantastical the more that gets reported.  It is now pretty clear that Sam Bacile is not an Israeli, Israeli American, or even Jewish.  Bacile is, apparently, a pseudonym for a Nakoula Basselly Nakoula - who appears to be an Egyptian emigre and was involved in this project with a number of naturalized American Copts and native born American Evangelicals.  Members of the cast have clearly indicated that the film was supposed to be/originally about Coptic persecution and was overdubbed in both English and Arabic with the anti-Islamic dialogue that has led to some serious problems in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen including the death of four American foreign service personnel.  The thirteen minute clip, posted to You Tube in July, began to gather interest over the past several days due to its being promoted by both Quran burning advocate Terry Jones and Egyptian-American Copt Morris Sadek.  The fatal anti-American violence in Libya may have partially been the result of various media and extremist movement sources claiming that the video had been produced for the 9-11 remembrances and was being widely shown on American TV on that day. 

While the story will continue to undergo change over the next several days as more facts come to light, the real issues are how does the US adjust its strategies and policies in the Middle East in response to these activities.  It also demonstrates very clearly that no matter what America's official positions, messaging, and actions are they can all be overcome by events regardless of whether they are unofficial messaging being transmitted by Americans - official or otherwise or the activities of the actual actors on the ground in the Middle East.

*Adam L. Silverman, PhD is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College (USAWC).  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of USAWC and/or the US Army.

Mursi as "rational actor."

Mursi and the MB are riding a tiger in Egypt and throughout the Muslim world.  They were elected to create a Salafist (larger sense) sharia law state.  There are still many people who are against this kind of thing in Egypt.  The US did everything it could to deter such people from revolt but they are still there.  Mursi needs to keep burnishing his salafist credentials with his base.  This means defiance of the West, particularly America, and the norms of Western behavior such as; our belief in freedom of speech and the international law involved in the Vienna Convention of 1961 0n diplomatic missions.  A confrontation with the US just fits the bill for Mursi.  He has been to Riyadh and Teheran recently.  Who knows how much money he has been promised in support of such a crisis with the US?  Don'r forget.  The Saudis play it both ways, always.  Mursi and company also understand very well how delicate BHO's position is when operating this close to a very nearly tied election.  Last and by no means least, Mursi is not a "rational choice" kind of guy, in the sense that "rational choice" is understood in Western international relations studies.  Does that means that Mursi does not make rational choices?  No.  It does not mean that.  He makes rational choices.  He is a believer and he chooses Allah first, last and always.  That is the same choice he made when he chose to leave his teaching job in California..  pl

"Libya Sufi shrines attacked 'by Islamist hardliners'" BBC

"A shrine in the Libyan capital Tripoli venerating a Sufi Muslim saint has been partly destroyed - the latest in a series of attacks blamed on ultra-conservative Salafi Islamists. Tripoli residents said men with bulldozers attacked the shrine of al-Shaab al-Dahmani, unimpeded by police. The attack came a day after hardliners were accused of damaging the tomb of a Sufi scholar in the city of Zlitan. Hardline Salafists regard the shrines as idolatrous. On Friday, a group attacked the tomb of 15th-Century scholar Abdel Salam al-Asmar in Zlitan, about 160km (100 miles) south-east of Tripoli. The Reuters news agency said its dome had collapsed. Video footage showed chunks of masonry littering the floor, bullet holes pockmarking the walls and ornate Islamic tiling destroyed."  BBC

---------------------------------------

It has seemed that Libya might perhaps have escaped the curse of Salafist Wahhabism.  This seemed true because of the peculiar nature of the country with its small population, its long history of Sufi involvement in religious affairs, and the high percentage of Libyans who were educated abroad by the unlamented  Qathafi government.

There is, however, a sizable Salafist group.   Their eventual role in the country is uncertain.  These Salafists are showing up in places like Syria and more particularly in Central Africa.  In Mali they are attacking the Zawiyas of Sufi lodges and the tombs of Sufi saints.  In Mali the Salafists now hold Timbukto (veriously spelt).  If they succeed in capturing the capital, Bamako, their will be an even more severe "purge" of Muslims who are thought to be less than pure.

Sufism is a varied expression of Islam that concentrates on the Batn, the inner spiritual life of Muslims rather than the rule driven Islam of the Salafists who seek everywhere to impose their inhumanly austere Sharia law.  They hate the Sufis for their belief  in the importance of the love of God.

The distinctions among various forms and belief systems within  Islam still escape almost everyone in the US, and, especially within the US Government.  It is my impression that people do not wish to understand.  What they want is the GWOT.  Ignorance makes the endless devotion to that cause easier.  pl   

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sufism

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Hallaj

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19380083

Be grateful for Libya

In Egypt the brave boys and girls of the State Department lead the fight for consolidation of  political Islamist rule.  In Afghanistan the kleptocrats, Afghan and American, are finishing up the construction of their fortunes in Dubai and the Cayman Islands.  In Pakistan the mobs are harangued against the United States and new, even greater nastiness against the US is planned.  In Tunisia the Islamists sidle steadly toward power.  The Washington Post demands active military support for Islamist rebels in Syria.  Their paper has a story today that features video of Islamist rebels smashing a truck full of Scotch while chanting "God is Great!"  In Lebanon Sunni preachers are much more active in demanding punishment of the Shia.  Are they not encouraged by US support of people like Mursi?

We released 1.3 billion dollars to the Egyptian military to keep them in line while Mursi sharpens his knife. 

Would Romnay do better in managing US interests in the greater Middle East?  No!  He would simply surrender to AEI/AIPAC and the Likud.

In Libya a secular leader seems to have won election.

God is Great!  pl

Ignatius on the "Arab Spring"

"Most officials think that relations with the Arabs are gradually going to get
worse, perhaps for decades, before democracy really takes root and the Arab
public, perhaps, will be ready to accept the Jewish state. The challenge for
Israel is how to avoid inflaming Arab public opinion, a newly important factor,
while protecting the country. "  Ignatius

-------------------------------------

Ignatius' Israeli friends are right to be fearful of revolutions that seem to unleash Islamist forces that have as their "raison d'etre" the elimination of Israel as an insult to Islam and the 'Umma.  The game has not been played out in Libya but Libya is a special case in terms of smallness of population and percentage of people educated abroad.

Al-Ahram has a story on-line that government receipts will be much smaller this year than they were under Mubarak "the terrible."  Let's see, how does that relate to all the billions that the Mubaraks stole from Egypt?  Hmmm!  That's the way to cover the government deficit!  They could torture the Mubaraks to find the people's money.

The Israelis prefer Bashar Assad?  How can that be?  Perhaps HC can fly by Tel Aviv to explain why they are wrong. 

Now Mursi has reinstated the Islamist parliament.  There must be great satisfaction in Foggy Bottom about how well things are going in Cairo. pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-israels-arab-spring-problem/2012/07/05/gJQAV5JrRW_story.html

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/47075/Business/Economy/Egyptian-state-revenues-are-overestimated,-a-blast.aspx

 

Was Megrahi really guilty?

"Much of the evidence was later challenged. It emerged that Mr. Gauci had repeatedly failed to identify Mr. Megrahi before the trial and had selected him only after seeing his photograph in a magazine and being shown the same photo in court. The date of the clothing sale was also in doubt.

Investigators said Mr. Bollier, whom even the court called “untruthful and unreliable,” had changed his story repeatedly after taking money from Libya, and might have gone to Tripoli just before the attack to fit a timer and bomb into the cassette recorder. The implication that he was a conspirator was never pursued.

In 2007, Mr. Lumpert admitted that he had lied at the trial, stolen a timer and given it to a Lockerbie investigator. Moreover, the fragment he identified was never tested for residue of explosives, although it was the only evidence of possible Libyan involvement.

The court’s inference that the bomb had been transferred from the Frankfurt feeder flight was also cast into doubt when a Heathrow security guard revealed that Pan Am’s baggage area had been broken into 17 hours before the bombing, a circumstance never explored."  NY Times

-----------------------------------

I have always thought that Megrahi was a convenient scapegoat.  Before the "Counter-Terrorism Task Force" at CIA (or whatever it was called then) fastened on him and his later aquitted colleague as the culprits, the CTTF had floundered for a long time, unable to "sort out" the crime.  Careers had been damaged and a new director of the center was brought in to "crack the case."  Miraculously, this man (a turk at his job) discovered the truth hidden in the midden heap of faulty evidence.

Libya denied the crime until the Saudis persuaded Qathafi that he could come in from the cold with regard to the United States by confessing to the deed and offering up culprits who could bear the burden of guilt.

Qathafi found that easy enough to do and threw in his non-existent nuclear weapons program as a sweetener.  The warehoues full of equipment that the Libyans had no idea what to with were an easy sacrifice.  The Bush Administration and its CT "experts" lapped this up as proof of their genius and knowledge of how to handle the Arabs.

Who really did it?  Probably some combination of Iran and the more extreme Palestinian groups would be my guess.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/world/africa/abdel-basset-ali-al-megrahi-lockerbie-bomber-dies-at-60.html?pagewanted=1&ref=obituaries

"How Osama bin Laden is winning, even in death" Ignatius

"What we’re seeing now in Egypt is something that might be called electoral bin Ladenism. Take the group Gamaa Islamiya, which under its spiritual leader, Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman, made the first unsuccessful attempt to destroy the World Trade Center in 1993. Today, the organization has formed a Salafist political party with the benign name Building and Development Party. This organization, which like al-Qaeda traces its roots to the Islamist theorist Sayyid Qutb, has 13 seats in the new Egyptian parliament.

Syria will be a test of whether this post-bin Laden Islamist movement can continue to reject violence or will instead be radicalized by the jihadist magnet that is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The successor to bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has tried to use the anti-Assad battle to rehabilitate the al-Qaeda brand — even though it’s another fight that embodies the Muslim-on-Muslim violence that bin Laden came to abhor."  Ignatius

*******************************

"... a year of mostly nonviolent democratic revolution. But it has brought to power some Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood groups that share common theological roots with bin Laden. And the al-Qaeda goal of driving the “apostate,” pro-American President Hosni Mubarak from power has been achieved."  Ignatius

---------------------------------------

Truer words were never..., etc.  Islamic revivalism (especially in Sunni Islam) is a cyclical phenomenon.  Islam sees itself as a universal truth that should become a way of life for all.  All else is tactics.

 

Libya and the Art of UW

Special Forces doctrine, organization and training has traditionally centered on UW and the mission "to develop, organize, equip, train, and direct non-US forces in the conduct of guerrilla warfare."  However, US foreign policy and our military operations have increasingly gravitated towards the other side of this COIN. The pun, though unintentional, describes the problem perfectly. In Viet Nam SF worked the UW mission with the Montagnards, Hmong and others while the Viet Cong conducted their own brand of UW. In Central and South America, SF more frequently worked with government military forces to combat local insurgencies. After 9/11, the focus became even more solidly on defeating insurgencies. The cult of COIN and the SOF operators reigned supreme.

With this year's Arab Spring and the near textbook example of a successful insurgency in Libya, I suggest that US foreign policy will be better served if it dispenses with its distrust of all insurgencies and releases its death grip on the status quo. As Thomas Jefferson advised us, a revolution now and then is a good thing. In this article I will point out a few salient points of current US doctrine on insurgencies and then examine the Libyan revolution through the lens of UW.

Qathafi's end, etc.

How did he die?  Who cares?  IMO the "Gs" killed him after they got through kicking him around.  They are not soldiers.  They are undisciplined civilian enthusiasts with a smidgin of training.  If MQ had died in an ambush or as the "Gs" shot their way into his hideout a lot of you would think nothing of it.

The Washington/New York foreign policy clique is now wringing its hands over the fate of Libya.  "They might not be ready fpr DEMOCRACY.  Oh my!  The US should establish a another Coalition Provisional Administration."  Yes, sure, the last one (Iraq) was such a success that the Iraqi government that we fostered has now thrown us out.

Americans can't seem to get it into our thick skulls that other people do not necessarily want to be like us and that this does not mean that they are retarded (oops - mentally special).

LEAVE THE LIBYANS ALONE!.  Let them work out their problems.  They are not children.  If they want one country or three that is THEIR  BUSINESS, not ours.  The think tank crowd can't leave people alone.  What would they do for a living if they did?  What would their next book or TV appearance be about?  pl

Jubilation in Libya - DOL

As anyone with access to a radio or television now knows, Sirte has fallen and Qathafi is dead. Al Jazeera is showing the film of the cheering rebel forces around his lifeless body. Saif is likely still out there, but his father's death should take the wind out of the sails of any continued serious resistance by Qathafi holdouts. The many rebel groups that paid dearly for this victory will rightly want a say in forming the new Libya. This will be difficult work.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/10/20111020111520869621.html

TTG

 

 

A new kind of war - FB Ali

On the recent thread about Anwar al-Awlaki’s killing, the question came up as to whether the US really is at war or not. This is an important issue, and its answer carries much wider significance beyond just the legality of killing Awlaki.

The short answer to the question, of course, is: it is war, because the US chooses to treat it as such. But it’s the dawn of a very different kind of war.

When George Bush declared his Great War on a nebulous noun (which most people understood to mean Islamists, though some construed it as Islam), he still waged it in the conventional manner. Pinning the blame for 9/11 on Afghanistan and Iraq, he invaded both countries. This was not much different from Austria-Hungary declaring war on and invading Serbia in 1914 because of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand by a Serb nationalist.

Oy vey... Today's News of the Weird from the Middle East

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

This afternoon one of my colleagues came into my office and was very keen on having me look at something.  That something is this article from the Economist.  The article reports that an Israeli woman named Gita Boaron is claiming that her great-grandmother was Qhattafi's grandmother, which, according to both Judaic Law (as membership in the Am or People is transmitted maternally) and Israeli Law (the right of return regarding Jews and Israeli citizenship), makes Qhattafi eligible for Israeli citizenship.  Oy vey indeed!

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

The Libyans Deserve Our Neglect. NJ Blog - 1 September

 
Col. W. Patrick Lang Responds to How Has the Obama Administration Handled the Crisis in Libya? ?.

pl

J Ponders Upon Libya

J sent this as a comment to my last post about Libya. I think it deserves post status. I 

The following is designed to generate further discussion regarding a post-Qaddafi Libya. There are now questions being raised by 'many' regarding the war in Libya:

1. 'Why' was Qaddafi overthrown, especially when some say/allege that he worked in his people's best interests. a. 1951, Libya was the poorest nation in the world. b. Before the NATO invasion, Libyans enjoyed the highest standard of living in the entirety of Africa. A standard of living that was even ahead of Russia, Brazil, & Saudi Arabia. c. In Qaddafi Libya, homes were considered a 'human right'. d. Newly married Libyan couples received $50,000 from the Qaddafi government to buy their own home. e. Electricity under the Qaddafi government was 'free' to 'everyone'. f. Qaddafi personally vowed to house 'every' Libyan before his own parents. Qaddafi kept that promise to his people, his own father died before he was able to be housed. g. 'Before' Qaddafi, only 1/5th of Libyans were literate. Under Qaddafi, Libyan education was free and considered high quality when measured against Western education standards. The literacy rate under Qaddafi rose to 83%. h. Under Qaddafi, Libya's healthcare was free and high quality when measured against modern healthcare standards. i. If Libyans could not find the healthcare or education they needed in Libya, then the Libyan Government of Qaddafi 'funded them' to 'go abroad' and access it. j. Under Qaddafi ALL loans were 'interest free' a.k.a. 0%, this was 'by law'. k. If a Libyan went to buy a car, the Qaddafi Government paid for 50% of its price, while the Libyan paid the remaining 50%. l. In Qaddafi Libya, the price of gasoline was $0.14/gallon. m. Any Libyan wishing to become a farmer was given 'free use' of -- 1. land; 2. a home; 3. farming equipment; 4. livestock & seeds.

Libya on the John Batchelor Show

 
http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2270852

pl

 

Libya on the Pat Campbell show

 
http://podcast.1170kfaq.com/PatCampbellShow/tabid/1852/Default.aspx

pl

Treat the MS media as raw material.

 
The hysterics who pass for "experts' on shows like "Morning joe" should be ignored.  Their performance over the last day or so with regard to Libya is pathetic.  They know nothing of military affairs of any kind, and even less of a sophisticated business like the support of an indigenous revolt by guerrilla forces.  They bleat continuously of one "terrible" event or another.  Most of their "correspondents" are hiding in a Tripoli hotel where their largest concern appears to be the availability of air conditioning and the possibility that the hotel might "catch" a stray bomb.  Richard Engel is a notable exception to this criticism as well as at least one woman reporter who moved into the capital with the French advised guerilla forces coming from the west. 

I have "news."  Wars are messy, uncertain things.  They "move" in fits and starts.

Qathafy's government is finished.  This has been a very successful effort.  What sort of government will the Libyans make?  It is not our business.  The only demand we should have on the new Libyan government is that they do not harbor enemies of the NATO alliance.  That includes us.

Do not give the Libyans money.  We do not have it to give.  Our instinct is to want to "control," "reform," and fund.  No. Give them back their own money, the money that is now impounded all over the world and then get out of their way so that the petroleum industry can make the oil and gas flow for export again.  pl

Libya Update

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

The Libyan rebels appear to have not only entered Tripoli, but seem to have brought about the collapse of Qhatafi's government.  It is also being reported that three of his sons, including his two eldest, are in custody and that Qhatafi's location is currently unknown.

*Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

# De Oppresso Liber - Operation Mermaid

As Colonel Lang said, the Libyan insurgency is prospering. The recent conquest of Az Zawiyah and Gharyan have put Tripoli and Qathafi's forces in a logistical stranglehold. There are now reports of armed uprisings in Tripoli itself. The NTC in Benghazi have issued statements that "Zero hour has started. The rebels in Tripoli have risen up." Apparently this is the beginning of Operation Mermaid, the liberation of Tripoli. It may happen in a few days. It may happen in a few weeks. But it will happen.

The military success of the mostly Berber rebel groups from the Nafusa Mountains have been remarkable. They have managed to raise, equip, train, lead and employ an effective, albeit still rag tag, army to the brink of victory. Perhaps the largely rural, pastoral nature of these hill people provided a more suitable pool of recruits than the coastal urban areas. However, the exploits of the boyos from Misrata offer an effective counterpoint to this argument. What was common to both fronts was that the terrain was more suitable to guerilla operations than the area from Benghazi to Sirte. And the rebels in both the Nafusa Mountains and Misrata knew their operational areas like the back of their hands. 

The drive to Az Zawiyah was a brilliant move… a check if not a checkmate move. The recent incorporation of Az Zawiyah resistance fighters into the Nafusa army not only strengthened the rebel army, but provided critical local intelligence for the assault on that city. The NTC decision to move a force composed of rebels from the Tripoli area from the eastern front to the Nafusa front will undoubtedly prove to be just as key during the final battles.

I only wish that we had inserted the ODAs into Misrata and Az Zawiyah back in March. It would have saved a lot of Libyan lives and ended this revolution a lot sooner. In the months to come, it will be interesting to learn if the rebels received any type of on the ground assistance. The NATO air campaign was clearly a great help at a critical time. It gave the rebels some breathing room and helped to level the "playing field." 

What will happen after the final military victory? Unlike the other revolutions of the Arab Spring, the rebels will be left with a clean slate. What kind of leaders will step forward? What will the Berbers gain from the final victory? Whatever happens will be up to the Libyan people. The leaders of a future Libya must remember that whatever they create must be worthy of the great sacrifices of a heroic band of brothers that won this opportunity at a great cost.      

TTG

US Recognizes Libyan Rebels

 
"The United States Friday recognized Libya's rebel National Transitional Council (TNC) as a legitimate government, a diplomatic boost which could unlock billions of dollars in frozen assets.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington would extend formal recognition to the Benghazi-based TNC until a fully representational interim government can be established."  Reuters

--------------------------------------

This will make a big difference in closing the Qathafi regime out.  This should have been done months ago.  This makes Qathafi the "rebel" and the former rebels the real government.  Much will follow from this action.

Why was it not done before?  Answer the question for yourselves.  pl

http://news.yahoo.com/u-recognizes-rebels-libya-legitimate-government-125455845.html

Obama is wrong about the War Powers Resolution

 
"President Barack Obama decided he could continue the air war in Libya without congressional approval despite rulings to the contrary from Justice Department and Pentagon lawyers, according to published reports.

The president relied instead on the opinions of other senior administration lawyers that continuing U.S. participation in the air operations against the regime of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi did not constitute “hostilities,” triggering the need for Congressional permission under the War Powers Resolution, the New York Times reported in its online edition Friday night."  Washpost

--------------------------------------------

I support the NATO intervention in Libya.

Nevertheless, President Obama IMO is completely wrong in arguing that the US role in that intervention does not suffice to compel him to notify Congress under the War Powers Resolution.  Presdient's of both parties have resisted the war making authority of the Congress for far too long.

This the time for that to end.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress/report-obama-rejected-the-views-of-top-lawyers-in-deciding-to-pursue-libya-air-war/2011/06/17/AGv0ZeZH_story.html?hpid=z3

US approaches recognition of Libyan rebels.

 
"The United States views the Transitional National Council as the legitimate interlocutor for the Libyan people during this interim period," Clinton saidduring a June 9 speech at a meeting of the Libya Contact Group in the United Arab Emirates (emphasis added).  Foreign Policy

-------------------------------

The press and many here at this space think the intervention in Libya is foolish and will be fruitless.  I do not.  War is sometimes useful.  This is one of those times.  Iraq was a foolish mistake.  The disastrous situation there in 2006 was somewhat improved by the application of traditional colonial methods of "divide and rule" and empowerment of politicians who, at least on the surface, were cooperative.  In Afghanistan the initial liberation of the country from Taliban rule was a worthwhile effort.  The attempt to build an Afghanistan that had never existed in spite of massive foreign aid during the monarchy, that was foolish.  It continues to be foolish.  This effort is beyond our strength and means, especially in bad economic times.

Libya is another matter.  Qathafi will be gone and the price is cheap.  pl

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/09/clinton_edges_toward_recognition_of_libyan_rebels

Middle East propaganda themes (memes)

 
The latest Israeli themes (memes) are : 

-  al-Qa’ida and Iran are close allies.

-  The Shia in Yemen are allies of the Iranians.

-  The tribal forces fighting to force Salih from power are AQAP in disguise and there is a serious danger that AQAP could take power in Yemen.

-  The revolution in Yemen is stalemated and Obama must be forced by the congress to abandon it. 

None of this is true.

* Al-Qaida and Iran have always been enemies.  The Shia and Sunni divide is too great for such an alliance to exist on anything other than a very temporary basis.  Iran supports Hamas. a largely Sunni movement, but they do nt do it in conjunction with Al-Qa'ida.

* The Shia in Yemen are Zeidi or Fiver Shia.  They have never had a significant relationship with the Iranians who are Twelver Shia ( a different religion) and do not have one now.

* The tribesmen fighting Salih in Sanaa are Fiver Shia.  AQAP is exclusively a Sunni movement.  They regard the Shia (any Shia) as apostates.

* The revolution in Libya is progressing nicely.  The Libyan government is crumbling.  israel wants Qathafi to remain.  They also want t odemonstrata they, not Obama, are in charge in Washington.  pl