Sic Semper Tyrannis

Yemen and Syria - Arabia at its finest.

"The Nusra Front  and its allies in Syria's Qalamoun  region vowed Tuesday to "eradicate" ISIS  after a series of provocations by the notorious Al-Qaeda splinter group sparked a round of inter-jihadi clashes.

The Twitter accounts of the Nusra Front  and the Qalamoun  branch of the Army of Conquest, a coalition of jihadi parties led by Nusra, announced that they had been fighting with ISIS  in west Qalamoun, along the border with Lebanon. 

The long statement highlighted that its fighters were against inter-jihadi conflict, especially since the area is surrounded by Hezbollah  from the east and the Syrian army from the west. 

The statement said that clashes between  ISIS  and other Syrian rebels in the past had been thwarted because of the existence of    ISIS members who showed “loyalty to all Muslims.” But those member were either killed in clashes, exiled or executed by    ISIS itself, the statement added."  Daily Star

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The Syrian Army is attacking in this stretch of the Lebanese border around Qalamoun even as its Hizbullah ally attacks the same jihadi forces from a different direction.

In the midst of this fight the Nusra and IS jihadis have chosen to go to war with each other in the very presence of their enemies.

I would expect to see them eradicated from the Qalamoun area shortly.

In the Yemen situation, former president Salih's political party has sent a delegation to talks in Riyadh.   Hmmm....  Well, pilgrims, don't expect Salih to play anything straight with anyone.  He would feel that he had failed himself if he did.  He would feel that he had not been all that he could be.  At least that is what I thought when I hunted with him along ago. That was when he was aligned with the USSR and before he became one of GW Bush's best friends. 

I see that the Nusra led coalition against Assad is calling itself the "Army of Conquest."  This is a direct "lift" from references in early Muslim historians to what they called jeish al-fath .  This term is to be found in such works as futuh al-buldan  (The Conquest of the Nations) by Al-Balathuri   pl  

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2015/May-12/297681-nusra-vows-to-eradicate-isis-in-qalamoun-syria-army-hezbollah-advance.ashx

A Festival of ME Updates - 7 May 2015

"Two officers from the military operations command for Salahuddin province where Baiji is located said the insurgents had now pushed so far into the complex that it was almost impossible for planes to target them without damaging the refinery as well.

Photographs published by Islamic State show crates of ammunition they say were plundered from Iraqi forces in Baiji and the disfigured bodies of policemen identifiable only from their blue camouflage uniforms. The pictures cannot be independently confirmed.

Colonel Imad al-Saiedi, who commands an army infantry regiment positioned near the refinery said it had been completely surrounded after militants cut all remaining supply routes used by the security forces.

“Daesh fighters have been launching multiple suicide car bomb attacks against our troops’ positions daily and due to the lack of reinforcements almost two thirds of the refinery is now under their control,” he said."  Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/04/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-refinery-idUSKBN0NP1L320150504

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What happened to the part about IS being in decline?  In other later breaking Iraqi news, PM Abadi's government has expressed its outrage over the wording of the US Military Assistance bill now in Congress that by statutory necessity describes the Pesh Merga and Sunni tribal recipients of $771 million in aid as "countries."  You see, pilgrims, the US does not give visible aid to armed rebels, etc.  Now, such aid can be given but by law it has to be given as part of a covert action program approved by the prez as such and run by you know who... Brennan's Battling Bastards!!  My guess is that someone did not want their "management" of this money.  pl

************

"The offer of a truce comes days after the Houthis started shelling Saudi border towns, prompting renewed air strikes in Yemen, and as the militia advanced into a last central area of Aden, a city whose fate is seen as pivotal to Yemen's civil war.

At a news conference alongside Jubeir, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry welcomed the proposal and said neither Riyadh  nor Washington was talking about sending ground troops to Yemen.

Saudi Arabia's military spokesman had said late on Wednesday that all options were open, including ground operations, to stop the mortar attacks on its border towns.

"We particularly welcome a new Saudi initiative to try to bring about a peaceful resolution through the announcement of their intent to establish a full, five-day, renewable ceasefire and humanitarian pause," Kerry said."  Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/07/us-yemen-security-saudi-operations-idUSKBN0NS10J20150507

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Damned decent of the Saudis!  Shows their respect for the plucky little Zeidi irregulars who are unaccountably able to shell the city of Najran in SA, shut down its schools and airport, etc.

At the same time the Yemeni Ambassador to the UN has appealed for UN peacekeepers to be sent in to "save Yemen."  Thank God!  Help is on the way.  Saudi Arabia expressed its approval of this move as did Yemeni president Hadi, now in exile in SA.

In yet more news the Evelyn Waugh inspired (Black Mischief) Zeidi Houthi/Yemen Army force in the south has captured the center of Aden. 

Thankfully, John Kerry remains confident.  pl

*************

"Casting aside U.S. concerns about aiding extremist groups, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have converged on an aggressive new strategy to bring down Syrian President Bashar Assad.

The two countries — one a democracy, the other a conservative kingdom — have for years been at odds over how to deal with Assad, their common enemy. But mutual frustration with what they consider American indecision has brought the two together in a strategic alliance that is driving recent rebel gains in northern Syria, and has helped strengthen a new coalition of anti-Assad insurgents, Turkish officials say.

That is provoking concern in the United States, which does not want rebel groups, including the al-Qaida linked Nusra Front, uniting to topple Assad. The Obama administration worries that the revived rebel alliance could potentially put a more dangerous radical Islamist regime in Assad’s place, just as the U.S. is focused on bringing down the Islamic State group."  AP 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/apnewsbreak-turkey-saudi-in-pact-to-help-anti-assad-rebels/2015/05/07/133445e8-f4c8-11e4-bca5-21b51bbdf93e_story.html

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Well, that tears it.  BB Assad (barrel bomber) is done for.  pl

************

"Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah vowed on Tuesday that his forces and Syrian allies would clear the rebels out of the border region north of the capital Damascus that insurgents use as a main supply route for arms and fighters.   

Although he did not disclose when his fighters would start a major assault in the Qalamoun area, his group said on Wednesday that its fighters had hit a gathering of militants on the Syrian side of the border, inflicting heavy casualties.

Lebanese officials have warned Iran-backed Hezbollah against launching a major cross-border attack, which they say would drag Lebanon, which suffered a civil war from 1975 to 1990, further into the years-long Syrian conflict.

On Wednesday, Hezbollah said its fighters had retaken part of a hilltop in Lebanon's eastern border area known as Kherbat al-Nahla overlooking the Syrian side of Qalamoun."  Reuters

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Ah, not so fast, Lone Ranger.  The Hizbullah  cavalry are on the way. pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/07/us-mideast-crisis-hezbollah-idUSKBN0NS0G720150507

 

 

The Latest Saudi/Israeli/Syrian Rebel "Plan" for Syria

"...  the Atlantic Council offered one way forward: converting the underpowered training mission into a project to build a 50,000-member “Syrian national stabilization force” capable of imposing order across the country."  Washpost Editorial Board

"As a starting point it would require the creation of the northern Syrian safe zone that Mr. Obama has resisted for years. But it would offer a path to ending the Assad regime and its crimes."  Washpost Editorial Board 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syrias-new-atrocities/2015/04/18/171939ec-e385-11e4-905f-cc896d379a32_story.html

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"...  stated that the United States must put the train-and-equip initiative "on steroids." The recommended program creates a robust, three-division stabilization force of 50,000 Syrians that would be able to fight and defeat any enemy standing in the way of a legitimate and inclusive Syria. He explained that as the Syrian National Stabilization Force (SNSF) gains ground and popularity, the force will attract patriotic elements of the Syrian Arab Army and other rebel forces to fill its ranks."  Atlantic Council

"...  the SNSF must have the capability and means to fight their enemies in offensive missions as well as the ability to conduct defensive, humanitarian, and security missions. In order to create this force successfully, the United States and its allies must lead the initiative in several efforts, to include establishment of a no-fly zone in parts of Syria where the SNSF can operate militarily and the Syrian National Command authority can establish governance."  Atlantic Council

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 Washington is infested by a sub-stratum/class of marginal academic performers and bureaucratic "hangers-on" who make a living by burrowing into the world of; political appointments, congressional staffs, media contracts, think-tankery and relentless self promotion.  These are often people with no talent for business who are incapable of making a living other than within the confines of the "policy" world.

On summer nights in Washington one can see foot long rats scurrying around the Willard Hotel, Lafayette Park and, of course The Treasury.  These rodents are so fat and sleek that they have difficulty in hiding themselves.  Their be-whiskered snouts can be seen protruding from beneath trash receptacles while the ends of their hairless tails are visible at the other side of the trash can.

 

US strategery and the restlessness of the natives.

"What we would like to see is for the FSA and the forces that we will
ultimately generate, train and equip to become the credible force that the
Assad government ultimately has to acknowledge and recognize. There is not
going to be a military solution here [in Syria]. We have to create so much credibility within the moderate Syrian opposition at a political level . . . that they earn their spot at the table when the time comes for the political solution. Now,
there could be FSA elements that ultimately clash with the regime, that may
well be the case, as they seek to defend themselves and those areas that they
dominate and as they seek to defend their families and their ways of life . . .
it could be an outcome. But the intent is not to create a field force to
liberate Damascus—that is not the intent. The intent is that in the political
outcome, they [the moderate Syrian opposition] must be a prominent—perhaps the preeminent voice—at the table to ultimately contribute to the political outcome that we seek."  Allen

----------------------------

Sweet 'Issa!  Has anyone run this "plan" by Lord Palmerston or Marshal Lyautey?  They actually knew something about colonial strategery.   So, we are going to make the phantom unicorn army of the FSA into something that will "earn its place at the table," and be "perhaps the preeminent voice" in the "political outcome that we seek."  Marvelous!  That should take a few decades but after that a mere ten or fifteen thousand US combat troops in real units (infantry, armor, aviation, etc.) will suffice to make it stick.  Maybe we could create ethnic/sect pure Syrian colonial units who would police the "peace."  What do the marines here say about this guy?  Is he another polished staffie like Perfect Peter Pace?  PL

http://www.aawsat.net/2014/10/article55337867

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“Based on past conflicts,” said one senior American military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss delicate intelligence assessments, the missiles “are game changers out there.”

The proliferation of antiaircraft weaponry has also heightened concerns about the vulnerability of Iraq’s airports, particularly Baghdad International Airport, the country’s most important transportation hub and a lifeline for military supplies and reinforcements to Iraq.

 

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 2 (Forecast to 1 March 2015)

Situation as of 5 November 2014

Diplomatic Front

Russia, France and Turkey have agreed to a one time exception to the Montreux Convention to allow positioning of the French Navy De Gaulle carrier battle group in the eastern Black sea for the purpose of air operations against IS in Iraq.  France does not want to participate in Syrian operations.  France does not want to lured into overflying Syria.  Turkey will allow overflight of eastern Anatolia to and from Iraq.  Turkey will also allow forward positioning of French naval SAR at Batman and emergency landings at Batman, Mus and Erzurum as necessary. Russia has offered the French battle group port privileges at Sebastopol for ship chandler and re-fueling operations.  France has yet to respond to this offer.

Turkey continues to deny the US the use of its airbases for offensive operations in either Syria or Iraq. Turkey seems to believe that it has enough leverage over US to force US ground participation in decisive campaign against the Syrian government as well as in establishment of a "no fly zone" in Syria that would inevitably result in direct combat between US and Syrian air forces.

Iranian assisted Pesh Merga forces in eastern Iraq continue to receive US air support.  This unacknowledged cooperation between Iran and the US is effective.

Syria's foreign minister stated once again on 1 November that Syria is pleased with US intervention against IS forces and positions. Syrian and US aircraft are carefully avoiding each other by mutual consent.

Terrorist Front

In Jordan, IS sympathisers attacked and killed two American tourists at Petra on the 20th of October.  Three French tourists were kidnapped on 25 October from the vicinity of one of the Ummayad hunting lodges in the eastern desert near Azraq air base. The kidnappers were Saudi beduin who took the French back across the border into the northern Najd where they have posted Utube videos demanding multi-million Euro ransoms for each one.  They state that if their demands are not met they will begin beheading the captives in the name of the Caliph Ibrahim.  The Saudi government has made no effort to rescue these people.

German police have apprehended an Al-Qaida affiliate cell in Hamburg. The group was well advance in planning a bombing attack against the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Political Front

The US mid-term election resulted in Republican gains in the House of Representatives and control of the senate by the GOP 53-47.  On 5 November, Senator McConnell, the presumptive next majority leader, demanded that President Obama take firm and decisive action against Islamic terrorism and IS in particular or face decisive action with regard to failure to  "defend the United States." A large group of Republican senators voiced immediate agreement.  Washington is overflowing with media hyped rumors that Obama is about to seek a new civilian national security team.

By 5 November a dozen new Ebola cases had appeared in the US causing a serious distraction from foreign affairs.  Many more had appeared by then in Europe.  Media personalities excoriated public health officials on both continents.  In west Africa the first cases of US military personnel displaying signs of what might be Ebola had appeared by 5 November.

President Obama had not, by 5 November, authorised a US ground presence in Iraq or Syria other than as operations advisers, trainers and guard for the embassy in Baghdad.  As a result the nearest US ground combat units were in Kuwait and Jordan.

Kobane Front

By 5 November IS had taken 90% of the town, in spite of the large number  of coalition air strikes, many of them flown, at Kurdish request, by US heavy bombers against targets inside Kobane.  These had failed to halt IS' advance but killed many Kurdish defenders and destroyed much of the city.  On the 2nd of November IS brought a hundred Kurdish prisoners to the Turkish border where they were executed for the TV cameras.  This was staged for network news.  In the fighting for Kobane throughout the latter half of October the IS used suicide truck bombers as part of their attack fire plans, rolling the trucks forward through their infantry lines to detonate them just before assaults.

Aleppo Front 

More and more IS fighters have returned to the Aleppo area for the purpose of trying to stop the Syrian Army's finalization of the encirclement of the old city.  US air activity has followed them and as a result, US aircraft are now (5 November) flying missions against ground targets presently engaged by the Syrian Army.

KAR front.

US aircraft are now operating from several KAR airfields. Erbil, Suleimaniya, etc.  USArmy's first SFGA is present in increasing numbers in the KAR.  They are returning to the region with many of the people who were instrumental in the "awakening."  Contacts are being re-established and these SF soldiers are returning to the tribal areas behind IS lines.  Most of 1 SFGA are engaged as adviser/trainers with the Pesh Merga.

Anbar Front

Nearly all of Anbar Province was in IS hands by 5 November.  Captured M198 155 mm. howitzers have been emplaced in camouflaged singleton positions within range of BIA.  "Searching fire" against the airport began in late October.  Two HE shells landed on the apron in front of the passenger terminal on the 25th.  The dozen airlines that had been operating through BIA then "suspended' operations until safety could be assured.   In the last week of October, IS artillery fire against the airport improved in accuracy. The reason for this was revealed when several airport employees were arrested by the secret police and charged with spotting for IS artillery and reporting by cell phone.  These arrests were followed the next night by a ground suicide bomber attack on aviation fuel stores at the airport.  It had been hoped that the provision of counter-battery radar to Iraqi Army artillery would enable them to suppress IS artillery, but, in the event, Iraqi Army artillery commanders have declined to advance to firing positions from which they could be effective.   IS sympathisers in the area report Iraqi Army firing positions by cell phone and the resulting fire is more than than the Iraqi Army want to experience.  

Baghdad Front

Large numbers of Shia have begun to leave the area of Baghdad west of the Tigris.  More and more arms caches in that part of the city are being discovered by the police.

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Based on this statement of the situation as of 5 November- 2014, forecast your views as to what is likely to occur between 5 Nomber, 2014 and 1 March 20.

Real world time for inputs for this turn will expire at 1600 GMT, 12 October 2014.

DO NOT FIGHT THE PROBLEM. The game is intended to be a pedagogic tool for sharpening our understaning of outstanding issues.  IT IS NOT intended to be predictive of the future.  pl 

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 1, The Situation as of 7 October 2014

We are going to play a game on SST.  This game will be a miniature version of the large scale politico-military games played by a number of corporations under contract to government entities in Europe and the United  States.  This game is based on the general principles of government gaming and does not derive from any company's proprietary interest.  The purpose of this game will be educational for all of us participants rather than implied policy prescriptions as in many government contract games.  These threads (each move) will not preclude other threads in parallel. 

The subject of the game will be the probable course of military and geopolitical events in the war between IS and the anti-IS coalition constructed by the United States over the next six months. Although IS and the coalition are the principal players, all those parties whose interests are involved in the contest can be introduced as additional players by participants.  Diplomatic, economic, political and military elements of the situation are to be included in the play.

The game will be played in "turns."  W. Patrick Lang (turcopolier) will act as umpire, omniscient observer and control for the game as Turcopolier Control.   The period of time available for completion of a task will be stated when each sub-part of a turn is posted.

The first turn will consist of two parts:

- A data call from players for statements of the real world  situation as of this date - 7 October 2014.  Estimates will be submitted to SST as comments on this post.  24 hours from time of posting for this sub-part will be allowed. After that time has passed Turcopolier Control will issue a consolidated situation statement based on the inputs and his judgement.

- Based on that new situation statement the players will be asked to forceast events for the next month for all the parties portrayed in the game.

In the second turn, Turcopolier/Control will issue a new scenario based on the results of Turn One:

- Based on that revised scenario participants will be asked to forecast additional play for the parties to the game for two additional months.

The Third Turn will be a continuation of this process.  The game will continue until it is judged to no longer be fruitul.  Participants are cautioned that fantasy inputs will not be tolerated or accepted, i.e, intervention by God (deus ex machina), beings from outer space or the like.

In any turn following the initial situation assesment, participants may request diplomatic talks with a player or a specific information input. Such information may or may not be available.  In all such exchanges, Turcopolier Control will be the actual interlocutor.

These rules are subject to revision mid-game by Turcopolier Control. The game is proprietary to SST.

Turcopolier Control looks forward to your inputs.

Game play begins now.  pl

Israel Preparing for war against Hizbullah - Times of Israel

 
 "The report said Hezbollah has an estimated 100,000 rockets — 10 times as many as were in the Hamas arsenal — and that its 5,000 long-range missiles, located in Beirut and other areas deep inside Lebanon, are capable of carrying large warheads (of up to 1 ton and more), with precision guidance systems, covering all of Israel.

Israel’s Iron Dome rocket defense system would not be able to cope with that kind of challenge, and thus the IDF would have to “maneuver fast” and act forcefully to prevail decisively in the conflict, Goldfus said."  Times of Israel

---------------------------

Israel was lucky that Hizbullah did not throw all that stuff at them during the Gaza unpleasantness.  Very lucky.  

This colonel is right.  Iron Dome would fail against the fire that Hisbullah can bring down on them and it would have failed even more catastrophically against an HB/Hamas combined effort.  

Nevertheless, Israel is unhappy that its goal of destroying Hamas in Gaza also failed.  Israel's rather primitive ideas in the area of "strategic" thought require that any and all potential enemies be intimidated and submissive.  That did not happen in Gaza.

Therefore, Israel is seeking another target for intimidation operations.  Hizbullah and Lebanon as a whole are the only available fields for this endeavor.

"In Beirut and other areas deep in Lebanon" telegraphs the IDF intention to ravage all of Lebanon in another air campaign designed to wreck Lebanese infrastructure and demonstrate the uncaring savagery implicit in nationalism run amock.  Someone said that a definition of insanity is a willingness to keep doing things again and again that do not work.  When did this level of savegery help Israel?

Colonel whathisname says that they will have to maneuver swiftly and decisively to prevent Hizbullah shooting up Israel.  I await that effort with interest.  pl

Read more: Israel preparing for 'very violent' war against Hezbollah, TV report says | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-preparing-for-very-violent-war-against-hezbollah-tv-report-says/#ixzz3ClA126mq 

 

ME Diary - 12 August 2014

"“We assess that U.S. airstrikes in northern Iraq have slowed ISIL’s operational tempo and temporarily disrupted their advances toward the province of Irbil. However, these strikes are unlikely to affect ISIL’s overall capabilities or its operation in other areas of Iraq and Syria,” Lt. Gen. William Mayville Jr., director of operations for the Joint Staff, told reporters."  Stars and Stripes

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/general-iraq-airstrikes-have-limited-temporary-effect-1.297794

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He da man!  If he doesn't think so then what is all the nonsense in the media about this handful of naval air strikes "turning back" the IS hordes?  pl

*********************

"Shortly after the statement was released, Mr. Maliki appeared on state television, sitting around a table with his military commanders, where he delivered the same message.

Mr. Maliki did not back away from the threat of a legal challenge to the nomination of Mr. Abadi, a lawmaker from Mr. Maliki’s own Shiite Islamist Dawa Party.

But any legal challenge — which would be based on Mr. Maliki’s contention that he had a legal right to make the first attempt at forming a new government after the election, because his bloc won the most seats — is considered quixotic, because he has lost much of the support within his own party."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/13/world/middleeast/maliki-seems-to-back-away-from-using-military-force-to-retain-power.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

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Maliki's statement is directed to the army, not to his police troops.  pl

*********************

" The core of the proposal, which is written in vague terms, calls for the creation of an international mechanism that would better monitor goods entering and exiting Gaza. This mechanism would verify that materials such as iron and cement brought into the Strip not reach Hamas and other terrorist groups, which are thought likely to use them for military purposes."  Times of Israel

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One of the problems Israel has in reconstruction is "Who will benefit from the sale of cement to Gaza?"  If Natanyahu wants to be a hard ass about it , then Egypt will sell the cement and israeli businesses will get screwed.  let's see how he deals with that.  pl

Read more: UK, France, Germany propose plan for Gaza reconstruction | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-france-germany-propose-plan-for-gaza-reconstruction/#ixzz3ADrEzQEt   

 

Middle East Diary - 21 July 2014

 

His eminence praised the persistence of the Hamas resistance and the tremendous patience of the people of Gaza and strongly supported their rightful demands to end the current battle.

Sayyed Nasrallah heard from Meshaal comforting and confident stance, as he reassured that Hamas resistance was ready to make a second victory in July."  al-Manar

--------------------

Israel should seriousl think about agreeing to a cease fire.   It has been suggested by some of our European friends on SST that Hizbullah does not care about Gaza and will not fight the Israelis over  the "destiny" of th eGazans.  IMO Nasrallah is not making an empty gesture. If the IDF continues its ravishment of Gaza, Hizbullah will begin to fire into nothern Israel.   They can target just about anything in th enoerthern half of the country and have many, many weapons.  A good question now would be the degree of redundancy in Iron Dome.  pl

http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=162072&frid=23&seccatid=14&cid=23&fromval=1

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Hasbara work - "Now, there are 40 people in the interactive unit of the Israel Defense Forces, including videographers, animators, graphic artists and computer programmers, pumping out missives in six languages, on many platforms, in a tone much punchier than the typical news release. “Israel uses the Iron Dome to protect its civilians,” it said on Twitter over the weekend. “Hamas uses civilians to protect its rockets.”

 

Gaza Diary - 17 July 2014

 

JC, an old Army friend  with long experience in Israel and Gaza sent me the following today.

"In that the current situation is unfolding somewhat similar to the 2006 Lebanon "fiasco", I am forwarding a brief summary of the Winograd Commission (edited, but courtesy of Wikipedia). I suspect that we may see a repeat of the final statement. 

According to the Winograd Commission Report, the Second Lebanon War was regarded as a "missed opportunity" and that "Israel initiated a long war, which ended without a defined military victory". The report continued to state that "a semi-military organization of a few thousand men resisted, for a few weeks, the strongest army in the Middle East, which enjoyed full air superiority and size and technology advantages". Furthermore, Hezbollah's rocket attacks continued throughout the war and the IDF did not provide an effective response to it. Following a long period of using standoff firepower and limited ground activities, the IDF launched a large-scale ground offensive close to the UN Security Council's resolution which imposed a cease-fire. "This offensive did not result in military gains and was not completed".

..."The fact Israel went to war before it decided which option to
select and without an exit strategy, all these constituted serious failures of the decision making process.""  JC


As JC observes this situation appears similar.  Once again, Israel has initiated hostilities with an Arab group without any clear idea of the result to be rationally expected or of an "exit plan" from the war itself.  The "strategic thnking' involved appears to have consisted of an unbounded hatred for the Palestinians and a desire to smash and humble them while using the worldwide resources of the Zionist cause to silence criticism.   A humilation like that which resulted from the Second Lebanon War now seems likely to emerge from a "permanent" cease fire unless Israel decides to "double down' in a large scale ground incursion into the Gaza Strip.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-palestinians-israel-idUSKBN0FI04420140717

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-palestinians-israel-britain-idUSKBN0FM1DX20140717

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_Commission

 

Middle East Diary - 11 July 2014

 

"Hezbollah possesses the Katyusha-122 rocket, which has a range of 29 km (18 mi) and carries a 15-kg (33-lb) warhead. Hezbollah also possesses about 100 long-range missiles. They include the Iranian-made Fajr-3 and Fajr-5, the latter with a range of 75 km (47 mi), enabling it to strike the Israeli port of Haifa, and the Zelzal-1, with an estimated 150 km (93 mi) range, which can reach Tel Aviv. Fajr-3 missiles have a range of 40 km (25 mi) and a 45-kg (99-lb) warhead, and Fajr-5 missiles, which extend to 72 km (45 mi), also hold 45-kg (99-lb) warheads.^[227] It was reported that Hezbollah is in possession of Scud missiles that were provided to them by Syria.^[233] The reports were denied by Syria.^["           

Wiki on Hezbollah.

----------------------

Natanyahu has made it clear that if rocket (not guided missile) fire out of Gaza does not end, there will be a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.  IMO this will be a large search and destroy operation employing a lot of infantry supported armor that will be heavily provided with artillery and air support.   IMO a decision to conduct such an operation in an area that contains 1.6 million people, most of them civilians, is a decision to inflict mass casualties on that population.  IMO that decision is motivated by a desire to destroy the unity government now in effect in the Palestinian Authority.  Is this not a war crime?

In a ground attack the IDf will find that Hamas and Islamic Jihad have studied the lessons of the 2006 war against Lebanon.

There has now been rocket fire out of Lebanon.  This is Hizbullah fire.  HB possesses an impressive inventory of rockets and guided missiles as well as many hardened positions from which to fire.  They also have a large inventory of antiaircraft weapons.  There is little love lost between Hamas (Sunni) and HB (Shia) but the provocation being offered by Israeli bombardment and the coming invasion may be too much for HB to accept.  A combination of Hamas and HB rocketry and guided missiles would have range fans that would cover most of Israel.  These weapons are admittedly inaccurate, but if they fire enough of them they will swamp Iron Dome and a lot will get through the defense.   There would be significant Israeli civilian casualties in that combination of events.  IMO these first rockets from Lebanon are a shot across Israel's bow.

Ben Gurion airport is the best counter value target in Israel.  The Dimona nuclear complex is too deeply buried to be accessible to the primitive rocketry available to either Hamas or HB.  Look to see the "Aghabs" shoot at the airport in an effort to hurt Israel's economy.   pl

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/11/lebanese-rockets-hit-israel-as-hostilities-escalate/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah#Armed_strength

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 ""We have suspended our government business," said minister Hoshiyar Zebari, who is a Kurd.

Zebari said that Kurdish ministers were suspending their day-to-day involvement in the foreign, trade, migration and health ministries and the deputy premiership. On Thursday, Kurdish leaders announced they were canceling their participation in cabinet meetings.

Zebari said ministers will continue to attend the parliament, elected on April 30, which is seeking to form a new government in the face of a Sunni insurgency that has seized large sections of northern and western Iraq.

Zebari said Iraq risked falling apart if a new inclusive government was not formed soon as "the country is now divided literally into three states...Kurdish; a black state (IS) and Baghdad." He urged Iraq's political blocs to form a government quickly."   al-jazeera.com

--------------------------

I remember Zebari laughing at me at a conference in Kuwait in 2005 when I told him that  the Iraq that Bremer as built was truly a house of cards that would disappear with the departure of the Americans.  He was as confident then as were many semi-westernized Egyptians after Mubarak's government fell to the mob in Tahrir Square.

IMO it is "all over" for the political mess that we Americans left behind in Iraq.  This "government" was based on the neocon/neo-wilsonian fantasy that dreamt of an Iraq in which the disparate peoples of Iraq would stop being disparate.  That was nover going to happen.

The Kurds will watch the circus act in the Iraqi Parliament and then vote themselves out of Iraq.  They will have to fight the IS to keep their lands but they can do that if they try hard.

The only real question is whether IS will try to take Baghdad once it has finished the business of consolidating its position in the lands of what they see as Caliph Ibrahim's 'umma.  pl 

 http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/7/11/iraq-parliament-dysfunction.html

************************

 "“The ISF are capable of limited defensive actions. And in some areas they are capable of limited but not sustained counter attacks,” says Jim Dubik, a senior fellow of the Institute for the Study of War and, in 2007, the US lieutenant general in charge of overseeing the training and development of the ISF. “But what they are totally incapable of planning, preparing or conducting is a counter offensive of any kind against Isis that will push them back and retake territory from the insurgency.”

Mr Dubik’s view is shared by many military analysts and current military officers.

In the next few days, six assessment teams dispatched by the Pentagon to Baghdad and Erbil will report on their assessment of the ISF’s disposition and capabilities. The picture will be “grim” says one Nato military intelligence officer.

In three operational areas the ISF has seen its capabilities degraded, according to Mr Dubik: “The systems that supply and support the combat soldiers – intelligence, logistics and personnel management – have atrophied.”"  FT

-----------------------------

This FT article is well worth reading.  I don't know Dubik but he knows the Iraqi forces well and is a seasoned officer.  ISW analysis of Syria and Iraq has generally been worthless but perhaps Dubik will fix that.   The underlined text above is literally the "crack of doom' for Maliki's Iraq.

The Malta Times reports that an IS force has seized the military base in Muqdadiya, Diyala Province 60 kilometers NE of Baghdad.  It is reported that many of the rebels went into the attack in armored personnel carriers (APC) or riding atop tanks.  So much for the idea that they are too primitive to use captured equipment.  pl  

 http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20140711/world/Insurgents-take-military-base-near-Baghdad.527245

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a089e41e-081c-11e4-9afc-00144feab7de.html#axzz37AqrP3TY

Time for a US reality check on Syria policy

" The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement called on the United States on Friday to admit that President Bashar al-Assad has won the war in Syria and to accept Syrian government terms for a political settlement to the crisis.

If the United States wants to be part of the solution to the war in Syria, it will first have to stop supporting the rebels and agree to engage in dialogue with Assad, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah said in a videotaped address to a funeral ceremony in Beirut.

“Any political solution has to start and end with Assad,” he said, speaking after Assad claimed a landslide win in the election this week."  washpost

 

Saudi Arabia grants Lebanese Army $3 billion - Daily Star

"Saudi Arabia has granted the Lebanese Army $3 billion in military equipment to be bought from France, President Michel Sleiman said Sunday. "The kingdom has decided, following ongoing contacts, to offer exceptional and admirable support to the Lebanese Army of $3 billion which would allow [the military] to buy newer and more modern weapons," Sleiman said in a televised speech, describing the grant as the largest in the history of Lebanon and its Army. "The Saudi grant will allow France to equip the Army, and I hope Paris will swiftly carry out this initiative,” he said. "After decades of unsuccessful efforts with no tangible results, I was able through contacts with the Saudi King Abdallah to provide the Lebanese Army with this exceptional grant," Sleiman added."  Daily Star

----------------------------------

The Saudis are usually more subtle than this.  They (like the Israelis) are upset with the US for not obeying.  In both cases the disobedience has to do with Syria and Iran.  The US has wisely declined to destroy the present Syrian government.  This task would be easily and bloodily accomplished if a decision were made to do so.  the US armed forces are designed for that kind of destruction as opposed to pacification of god awful places like Afghanistan.  In the case of Iran both Saudi Arabia and Israel yearn for an Obama Administration decision to wreck Iran's nuclear program and economy generally.  An Iran reduced to a Morgenthau model state would be pleasing to them.  The US has thus far declined these tasks.

Therefore the US must be punished like an errant child.  The grant of $3 billion to  Lebanon for the purpose of buying French military equipment and training should be seen in that context. It has been suggested in Lebanon that the acquisition of ths equipmentwill counter the military power of Hizbullah in Lebanon.  I find that amusing.  the Lebanese Army has never shown any apetite for fighting anyone and the thought of a Lebanese Army/Hizbullah confrontation is funny.

In much the same way Bibi has apparently declared that he demands Pollard's release as a condition for any future "progress" with Kerry over the Palestinians.

Expect more of this as various little countries seek to demonstrate their domination of American policy.  pl  

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2013/Dec-29/242579-sleiman-saudi-arabia-grants-lebanese-army-3-billion.ashx#axzz2otsCv9pm

Eastern Mediterranean Roundup - 19 August 2013

- Fighting continues in the Sinai Peninsula with Israeli and Egyptian forces cooperating more than they ever have before.   At least 24 egyptian policemen have died in a jihadi ambush at Rafa on the Israeli border.  The Israelis tell me that they are very hopeful that the US will not cut off military aid to Egypt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23751954

- Husni Mubarak may soon be released from prison.  He is a lucky man, Mursi might well have had him hanged on general principles.  Now....  The shoe is on the other foot.  BTW, the search for Mubarak's "billions" of stolen money never got anywhere.  They found a few hundred million.  In the ME that is chicken feed.  Egyptians tell me that Amre Mousa is the preferred candidate of the military for an eventual presidential election.  He is a non-entity with a long history.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/19/mubarak-to-be-released-from-jail-this-week-report-says/

- UN chemical weapons investigators began work in Syria today.  They are to determine if CW was used and by whom.  They are at work in spite of US obstructionism in New York.  IMO the result of their work may be the next big embarassment for Obama.  There is a reason why the Syrian government is so willing to have the UN investigate this matter.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/19/world/meast/syria-civil-war/

- The US media in its eagerness to support the naive poliicy of the Obama Administrations and the Congress continues to exagerate the importance of the 1.3 billion $ that we give Egypt in the form of credits we do not expect to have repayed.  Egypt has reacted to this talk.  Their government has now stated that it, too, will examine its relations with states that have sought to "interfere" with Egypt's internal affairs.  The Gulf will easily replace moneys lost in disappeared US aid.  The highly complex equipment provided by the US to Egypt in the expectation that Egypt could be a worthwhile internation "player" is not needed by Egypt.  The material exceeds Egypt's needs and capacity for absorption.  For the Egyptians the possession of such equipment is a matter of national pride.  Egyptian forces are really internal security forces.  It does not matter if they want to admit that or not.  The kind of equipment they really need is widely available on international markets.  At the same time, to prevent sales of spare parts for equipment now in Egyptian hands, the US Government would have to take executive or legislative action to prevent private sales of spare parts to the Egyptian government.  Would they really want to do that to companies like Lockheed-Martin and General Dynamics?  Personnel training?  Don't kid yourself, there are lots of places for very fine training.  India comes to mind.   And lastly, a rupture of relations would cost the US automatic overflight clearance priviliages and queueing privileges in the canal. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/19/world/middleeast/leaving-military-aid-intact-us-takes-steps-to-halt-economic-help-to-egypt.html?_r=0

- And then there is the Kerryesque farce in Palestine where the Israelis are playing us for suckers once again and the Palestinians are enduring yet another humiliation.  The Israelis have no intention of creating a viable Palestinian state as a rival.  All else is tactics and playing nice with the ignorant Americans.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/sham-peace-talks-resume/5345995

Ah, me.   pl    

Saudi Arabia's Lebanese stooge condemns Hizbullah

 

"Lebanon's leading Sunni Muslim politician Saad al-Hariri accused Hezbollah on Saturday of dragging the country deeper into Syria's civil war after the Shi'ite militant group's leader said he was ready to go to Syria himself to fight. Hariri, a former prime minister, was responding to a speech by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah who said that a car bomb in Shi'ite southern Beirut would only redouble the group's military support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. "(Nasrallah's) speech takes Lebanon into deeper involvement in the Syrian fire," Hariri tweeted. "It's a pity to squander the blood of the Lebanese in such a way."  Reuters

-------------------------------

This is very funny.  IMO Sa'ad Hariri like his father before him has always been Saudi Arabia's chief agent in Lebanon.  He and his father are "rumored" to have made US$ billions in SA by processing contracts for royal guest houses, etc. in which members of the royal family "supposedly" benefited.  He is a Wahhabi and even looks like a Saudi.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/17/us-lebanon-explosion-hariri-idUSBRE97G07R20130817

Syria, the Levant, and the Real Domino Effect

*

Adam L. Silverman, PhD**

 

As the Syrian Civil War continues into its third year, there are several potential outcomes that we need to look out for and be concerned with.  These are not just limited to Syria, but to the entire Levant, and even to Iran.  So lets run the board in order:

Syria

There are really two key potential outcomes and one sequel for Syria itself: stalemate driven insurgency, the fall of the Assads leading to a Sunni majority takeover, and the withdrawl of the Alawites to Latakia.

It is, in some respects, both surprising and not surprising that the Assad government has held on for as long as it has.  In many ways the Syrian Civil War is both an Assad and Alawite existential fight. which partially explains just how hard the government has responded and how far it is willing to go to survive.  One of the two most likely outcomes to the dispute is that the government is strong enough to survive, but not strong enough to completely put down the rebellion and that the rebellion is not strong enough to overthrow the government, but just strong enough to survive.  If this happens, then we will see a classic insurgency along the lines of what the Philippines has endured with the Moros on Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago and similar to what Columbia has faced with the FARC.  In this situation Syria essentially gets carved up into two or more statelets - with government control in some areas and rebel control in others. 

The second potential outcome is that the Assad government does fall and the Sunni majority, or some faction of it takes over.  And it is this latter concept of faction that is important.  There is clearly no good cohesion among the rebel groups, both the domestic Syrian and the foreign fighters/jihadis, as well as between them.  While it may ultimately be a good thing for the region if Assad goes, it will not be a simple transition.  The various factions are likely to try to consolidate power, claim and then establish legitimacy, and will come to blows with each other over who will take control.  This possible outcome has the potential to turn into a Syrian version of the Thirty Years War, where different factions try to and/or actually seize power, seek to consolidate, face challenges to their legitimacy, and then the cycle of violent succession starts all over again.  This would, unlike the actual Thirty Years War, not end in the creation of a secular state, as the Syrian Sunni majority is conservative and devout even though it is not Salafist.  So do not expect a secular Sunni majority Syria to emerge.

In both of these two potential outcomes their is a sequel: the fallback of the Alawites, with or without the Assads, to their traditional lands in Latakia.  Latakia is the mountainous strip of Syria below Turkey on the coast of the Mediterranean.  While it is not completely fortifiable, it is certainly good ground - to paraphrase MG Buford - for digging in and trying to make a stand.  Not only would this prolong the dispute, but it would complicate Syria's claims to their portions of the recently discovered Leviathan petroleum and natural gas field in the eastern Mediterranean.

Hezbollah chief warns Israel

"Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel Sunday that any war with Lebanon would see thousands of rockets fired on Israeli cities.

Nasrallah's televised warning comes just days after a tenuous cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the end of Ashura, a religious holiday for Shia Muslims.

“If the confrontation in the Gaza Strip given its blockade included missiles reaching 40 to 70 kilometers [into Israel], then the radius of a battle with us will reach occupied Palestine [Israel] from the Lebanese border to the Jordanian border and the Red Sea,” Nasrallah said, according to the Daily Star.

“From Kiryat Shmona to Eilat,” he continued, in reference to Israel's most northern and southern cities.

Nasrallah has previously warned that it now has an arsenal of weapons that could reach Israel's largest city Tel Aviv."  Global Post

-------------------------------------------------

Israel and the "Israel Friendly Community" should take this warning seriously. 

"As of 2010[update], the Israeli government believed Hezbollah had an arsenal of more than 15,000 long-range rockets stationed on its border with Lebanon. Some of these missiles were said to be capable of penetrating cities as far away as Eilat." Wiki on Hizbullah  

Israel's nightmare ought to be a situation in which war with both HAMAS and Hizbullah ocurs and 20,000 odd artillery rockets and short range ballistic missiles are fired at their population centers,  Iron Dome worked reasonably well against HAMAS artillery rockets, but even at the end of hostilities after a week of bombardment by Israel, HAMAS was still firing salvos of rockets at Israeli targets.  HAMAS has buried pre-aimed rockets that are very difficult for the Israelis to locate before they are fired.

A war in which both Islamist groups "unloads" the whole inventory at Israel would produce high casualties and much damage in Israel.

Would there be a lot of damage in Lebanon?  Yes.  Would that deter Hizbullah?  No.  pl  

 

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/israel-and-palestine/121125/hezbollah-chief-warns-israel-marking-e

 

 

Bibi lost at Gaza

Natanyahu looks weak.  The generally militaristic and nationalist electorate in Israel will make him pay for that in the election.  Bibi chose to mobilize for war against HAMAS and then drew back his hand when faced with; Obama, Mursi, the international media and continuing and defiant HAMAS rocket fire out of Gaza.  Iron Dome worked but but the fire out of Gaza continued unabated and Israel faced the possibility that Hizbullah might join in the barrage at some point.

The Palestinians in Gaza are celebrating because in the end the Israelis blinked.  pl 

 http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/23/opposition-parties-lambaste-netanyahu-for-ceasefire-in-gaza/ 

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK22Ak03.html

 

Rice reveals that Hizbullah helps Syria

 

"U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice told the U.N. Security Council's monthly meeting on the Mideast that Hezbollah leaders are also continuing to plot new measures with Iran to keep Assad in power.       

Rice's comments — and those of Israel's U.N. Ambassador Ron Prosor — gave the clearest indication that Hezbollah, which fought a war against Israel in 2006 and is a major political and military force in Lebanon, is sending an increasing number of fighters to help the embattled Syrian regime.       

Syria's ruling Alawite minority is an offshoot of Shiite Islam and has had close ties to Iran and Hezbollah which are Shiite-dominated. Assad has long helped Iran aid Hezbollah and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, in destabilizing Lebanon and threatening Israel's security and U.S. interests in the Middle East. "  NY Times

-----------------------------------------

This is truly comic.  Susan "Meet the Press" Rice is still riding high.

Hizbullah is a major component of a stable government in Lebanon.  It was elected to the number of seats in parliament that give it that power a number of years ago and the political science seminar crowd that makes up the US foreign policy establishment has resolutely opposed the Lebanese government ever since.  BTW, when did Hizbullah last fire rockets or anything else into Israel?  If memory serves, it was in 2006.

In Syria the US seeks regime change without UN authority.   The allies of the US in this endeavor are; Turkey (Sunni ruled), Egypt (Sunni ruled), Saudi Arabia (Sunni ruled), Qatar (Sunni ruled) Al-Qa'ida (Sunni fanatics) and NATO.

On the other side, the government of Syria (Alawi, Druze, Shia, Sunni and Christian in orientation), Iran (Shia ruled), Iraq (Shia ruled) and now apparently Hizbullah (a Shia militia)

So, the US has become the ally of Al-Qa'ida and the Wahhabi Saudis against a multi-confessional government and its Shia allies.

How clever we are!  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/10/15/world/middleeast/ap-un-un-mideast.html?ref=world&_r=0

"How Osama bin Laden is winning, even in death" Ignatius

"What we’re seeing now in Egypt is something that might be called electoral bin Ladenism. Take the group Gamaa Islamiya, which under its spiritual leader, Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman, made the first unsuccessful attempt to destroy the World Trade Center in 1993. Today, the organization has formed a Salafist political party with the benign name Building and Development Party. This organization, which like al-Qaeda traces its roots to the Islamist theorist Sayyid Qutb, has 13 seats in the new Egyptian parliament.

Syria will be a test of whether this post-bin Laden Islamist movement can continue to reject violence or will instead be radicalized by the jihadist magnet that is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The successor to bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has tried to use the anti-Assad battle to rehabilitate the al-Qaeda brand — even though it’s another fight that embodies the Muslim-on-Muslim violence that bin Laden came to abhor."  Ignatius

*******************************

"... a year of mostly nonviolent democratic revolution. But it has brought to power some Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood groups that share common theological roots with bin Laden. And the al-Qaeda goal of driving the “apostate,” pro-American President Hosni Mubarak from power has been achieved."  Ignatius

---------------------------------------

Truer words were never..., etc.  Islamic revivalism (especially in Sunni Islam) is a cyclical phenomenon.  Islam sees itself as a universal truth that should become a way of life for all.  All else is tactics.

 

Lebanon/Hizbullah?

 
I am attending a discussion on these two entities next week.  Does anyone have any thoughts or current references they would like to point out to me?  pl

Mikati forms Hizbullah led government in Lebanon.

 
"Formed after five months of political stalemate, the new Lebanese leadership was welcomed by President Bashar al-Assad of neighboring Syria, another Hezbollah sponsor now beset by international censure of its crackdowns of anti-regime protests.

"This government is committed to maintaining strong, brotherly ties which bind Lebanon to all Arab countries, without exception," Mikati said at the Baabda Presidential Palace.

"Let us go to work immediately according to the principles ... (of) defending Lebanon's sovereignty and its independence and liberating land that remains under the occupation of the Israeli enemy."

Mikati was appointed after Hezbollah and its allies toppled U.S.-aligned former premier Saad al-Hariri in January over a dispute involving the U.N.-backed probe into the 2005 assassination of statesman Rafik al-Hariri, Saad's father."  Reuters

------------------------------------

Another "triumph" for US policy.  We have insisted that Hizbullah is nothing but a terrorist organization and that it is not a legitimate political force.  We have insisted that in spite of Hizbullah's strong showing in internationally observed elections.  We pulled every lever that we could to deny Hizbullah the fruits of its last victories in parliamentary elections.  This is reminiscent of our attitude towards Hamas after its electoral triumphs.  Now Hizbullah is in the "driver's seat" in Lebanon.  Can anyone doubt that this is the time to mend fences with Hizbullah?  Can anyone doubt that our past policy has been the result of Israeli influence in the Bush and Obama Administrations?"  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/us-lebanon-government-idUSTRE75C48K20110613

PS  The Germans recognized the Libyan rebels today.  they are the 13th country to do so.  pl

Mikati in Beirut

I am distracted this morning by the necessity of participating in a mortgage closing. Please entertain each other on the subject of the new March 8 government in the Lebanon.  pl

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=124106#axzz1C3O8cLd3

 

Unacceptable compromise in Lebanon

""In case the person we support is chosen to form the Cabinet we will work for this Cabinet to be a government of national unity," Nasrallah said in a televised speech. "We do not seek to cancel anyone."

That is significant because Hezbollah and its allies had appeared to be closing in on enough support in parliament to form a government on their own, if they had chosen to try to do so."  Washpost

--------------------------------------------------

The US will predictably oppose this manifestatation of the "local" narrative.  After all, what has this to do with Israeli triumphalism or the the war on terrorism (or Islam, if we understood it).  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/23/AR2011012301618.html?sid=ST2011012202759?hpid=topnews

Syria attempted Hariri cover-up - Richard Sale

As the U.N. yesterday completed its probe of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, not yet releasing the results, former senior and serving U.S. intelligence officials again insisted that the killing was done by Syria or Syrian proxies.

The Feb. 14 blast killed 16 and wounded 100, according to UPI news accounts.

The murder galvanized opposition elements in Lebanon which immediately demanded that Syria withdraw its forces.

But U.S. intelligence officials also accuse Syria of attempting to engineer a cover-up of the blast.  The Syrians prepared a cover story in advance, one serving U.S. intelligence official said.

More on Lebanon

I am down with a resurgence of the January crud (cold).  This WP editorial and the piece on Jumblatt bego for commentary.  I appeal for this on both.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/20/AR2011012005513.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110121/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_lebanon_politics

 

Lebanese Futures

 
As we all know, Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri's government fell yesterday when Hizbullah and their Christian 'Awni allies withdrew from support of the government.  Between them they have nearly half the seats in parliament.   When Jumblatt's unpredicatable but possible support is added to that, a working majority may emerge that will name the next PM.  Such a PM is likely to be a hard-line Lebanese and Arab nationalist who will look to Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran for support rather than to the Israeli/US Codominium. 

This situation represents yet another "triumph" for the Natanyahu/Obama Administration.  Having lost the struggle over the content of the Iran NIE, Israel/the WH/AIPAC is forced to "retreat" to mere rhetorical threats and murmurs about "increased military pressure" and other fantasies.

In fact, the intelligence developments determine that the US is not going to fight Iran as Israel's proxy.   Left to their own devices the Israelis are faced with the prospect of acting against Iran alone (likely to be a losing effort), attacking Lebanon in frustration, or doing nothing.

If they attack, then Lebanon must expect yet another campaign of deep bombing against civil infrastructure targets.  Such efforts have never brought a softening of Lebanese policies towards Isael, but the Israelis have no better, more productive ideas that they are willing to try.  In the front line area between the two countries, a renewal of fighting on the 2006 lines would involve a lot more Hizbullah rocket fire into Israel, more air defense weapons and newly built and organized defenses.  Iran continues to provide "depth" to Hizbullah's military efforts in terms of supply, training and theater level backing for deterrence of Israel.  This is exactly what Israel does not want.  pl

"Iran has role to play in Lebanon's stability: Hariri" AFP

 
"The Islamic Republic of Iran has a natural role in the region, especially in resolving crisis and strengthening stability in Lebanon."  Sa'ad Hariri quoted in AFP

--------------------------------------

Now this IS amusing.  Sa'ad Hariri has been the darling of the AIPAC/Israel/Bush Administration collegium.  He has been described for years in those circles as a potential "savior" of Lebanon from the Hizbullah/Iran/Syrian forces that lurk in the background.

Now, apparently, the realities of life and politics in the eastern Mediterranean have penetrated his Saudi money filled head. 

Lebanon is once again on the brink of attack based in Israeli rage and frustration.  Hariri was supposed to know that he had been bought, not rented, but alas, his Saudi mentors have probably told him to go make peace with the Iranians.

So much for the AIPAC/Israeli belief that the Saudis are the implacable enemies of Iran.

Oh yes, let us not forget that in this speech he described Israel as the greatest threat in the region.  pl

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i18hmZ3YDg5mPjtaDyspGhDi9KAA?docId=CNG.0c72364653fa48fde37dd48eded0946e.ac1

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=121926#axzz16QlSyFHb