“We complained a lot about this over the years,” said Shehadi, who worked at the port until emigrating to Canada in March this year. “Every week, the customs people came and complained and so did the state security officers. The army kept telling them they had no other place to put this. Everyone wanted to be the boss, and no one wanted to make a real decision.”
In addition, the hangar housed a quantity of fireworks, Shehadi said, which customs had confiscated in about 2009-10 and which he said he had personally seen delivered on a forklift. “There were 30 to 40 nylon bags of fireworks inside warehouse 12,” he said.
“They were on the left-hand side when you entered the door. I used to complain about this. It wasn’t safe. There was also humidity there. This was a disaster waiting to happen. The port workers did not put the chemicals there in the first place. That outrage rests with the government.” Guardian
"Lebanon's President, Michel Aoun, blamed the detonation on 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate that he said had been stored unsafely at a warehouse in the port.
The Rhosus was inspected, banned from leaving and was shortly afterwards abandoned by its owners, according to Shiparrested.com. Its cargo was reportedly transferred to Warehouse 12 following a court order, and should have been disposed of or resold." BBC
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The pictures are worth far more than any words of mine. pl
"The Beirut blast, based on the crater and glass windows being blown out a distance away, exploded with the force equivalent to detonating at least 2.2 kilotons of TNT, said Sim Tack, an analyst and weapons expert at the Texas-based private intelligence firm Stratfor.
What initially started the fire at the port remains unclear. Beirut was sunny before Tuesday's explosion, with a daily high of 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit)." abc11.com
"Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri visited the grave of his late father who was killed in a suicide truck bomb in February 2005, telling reporters, "They killed Beirut yesterday." After he left, protesters chanted slogans against Lebanon's entire political class, including Hariri, and fistfights broke out between his supporters and protesters. Hariri resigned in October amid nationwide protests.
The government sought to reassure fears over the food supply, a top concern in a country where some 80% of the wheat is imported and which is also hosting over 1 million Syrians displaced by civil war there.
Drone footage shot Wednesday by The Associated Press showed the blast tore open the silo building, dumping its contents into the debris and earth thrown up by the blast. Estimates suggest some 85% of the country's grain was stored at the now-wrecked silos." abc11.com
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It appears that this monstrous event was caused by a Lebanese government decision in 2014 to store several thousand tons of the fertilizer Ammonium Nitrate in a warehouse in the port of Beirut.
This material had been confiscated by the Lebanese government when found aboard a ship impounded in the port. It was thought in 2014 that the fertilizer was too dangerous to be left in the hold of the ship.
You may remember that Ammonium Nitrate soaked with motor oil was the explosive used by McVeigh to destroy the federal building in Oklahoma City. The amount of explosive used by him was contained in a rented panel van. The amount of explosive used in that attack was relatively miniscule compared to the amount of Ammonium Nitrate that blew up in Beirut.
It seems that another warehouse, close by in the port area contained a large quantity of fireworks, rockets, etc. Fireworks are popular in Beirut and are used in wedding ceremonies and the like. I remember several such events in the big ballroom underneath the Phoenicia Hotel. In each case there were several hundred people in the room. Massed fireworks were set off in this cavernous space as part of the celebration. This worried me. I feared that the building would catch fire but none of the Lebanese present seemed concerned.
In yesterday's disaster the fireworks somehow caught fire. That fire and the flight of some of the fireworks into the fertilizer warehouse set off the Ammonium Nitrate. Exploding fireworks are visible in film of the fire just before the explosion. Because of my service in US Army Special Forces, I know a bit about explosives. The fact that the Ammonium Nitrate was contained in a substantial building increased the violence of the blast because the building "tamped" the blast allowing it to increase radically in pressure before the building disintegrated.
Accident or attack? Who knows? The fire in the fireworks warehouse could have been deliberately set or it may have been an accident caused by some ass smoking in the building or some such thing.
In any event, the Lebanese government port authority decision to allow all that Ammonium Nitrate to be stored in the port for six years is illustrative of the kind of ineptitude that has marked Lebanese government for many years. As you all know, the Lebanese economy was in free fall and in collapse BEFORE yesterday's horror.
Viewers of drone photography of the point of explosion write that the crater is several hundred feet in diameter and that it looks as though "the sea has taken a big bite out of the port."
There is no money available to re-build downtown Beirut and the port.
"Late last year also saw the unravelling of what analysts said was effectively a state-sponsored pyramid, or Ponzi, schemerun by the central bank, which was borrowing from commercial banks at above-market interest rates to pay back its debts and maintain the Lebanese pound's fixed exchange rate with the US dollar.
At the same time, people were getting increasingly angry and frustrated about the government's failure to provide even basic services. They were having to deal with daily power cuts, a lack of safe drinking water, limited public healthcare, and some of the world's worst internet connections.
Many blamed the ruling elite who have dominated politics for years and amassed their own wealth while failing to carry out the sweeping reforms necessary to solve the country's problems." BBC
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"The ruling elites" Ah, yes. I watched them struggle over things like cell phone network licenses and commercial banking licenses needed for money laundering for the drug trade on a grand scale. The level of criminality in the "Ruling Elites" was all pervasive for many years. It was everywhere and so accepted that it was barely hidden at all.
I remember a city wide official promotion for sales of consumer goods. I went into a fancy men's wear shop that week and decided to buy a very fine Italian made black silk jacket. The manager was visibly reluctant. I thought at first it was the sale price. I pressed him on this and he finally said, "Look if I sell it to you, I will just have to stock another one ..." Get it? The goods in the store were just props for the façade of whatever criminal enterprise some member of "the elites" was running using the store's overseas supply connections as tools.
But, people were exquisitely polite. The cuisine of all types was exquisitely good in the restaurants. The hotels were above average on the international scene.
But, the government was crooked., very very crooked.
As an example, the reconstruction of the center of Beirut was financed by selling masses of government backed bonds to cronies. These were gifts that keep on giving for a long time.
"Most parts of Lebanon are receiving no more than two or three hours of electricity a day. An incoming flight at Beirut’s airport had to abort a landing this month because the lights on the runway went out. The traffic signals in the capital have stopped working, adding to the congestion on Beirut’s already chaotic streets.
These are among the latest symptoms of an economic implosion that is accelerating at an alarming pace in Lebanon as its government, its banks and its citizens run out of foreign currency simultaneously.
The collapse is the result of decades of economic mismanagement, corruption and overspending. Hopes for a rescue are fading as the country’s ruling elites balk at the kind of reforms and outside scrutiny that would unlock international aid. Talks with the International Monetary Fund to secure a $10 billion loan have stalled." Washpost
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We were standing outside the main terminal at Beirut International Airport watching the chaos in the streets when this question emerged from the mouth of the man who often drove for me when I visited Beirut.
This was about 20 years ago. The country was then more or less paralyzed politically and economically. The fighting part of the civil war had ended but the internal struggle among factions focused on personalities, and religious sects was only intensifying. Syria, then a unified country was an ever present menace on the eastern border. Syrian workers flooded Lebanon and Palestinian refugees inhabited permanent camps that had virtual extra-territoriality. To complete the picture the foreign embassies never tired of meddling in Lebanese politics. Then as now, foreign ambassadors in Lebanon tended to be careerist functionaries who desperately want to raise their profile in their own capitals.
I put my arm around his shoulders and told him that if he could get out, he should because the situation would continue to disintegrate.
And, it has.
The Lebanese are charming, hard working people. This statement applies to all of them, Sunni, Shia, Christians of various types, etc. But the country, like Belgium, was a bad idea.
It was constructed by the French during their rule of Greater Syria as a kind of Indian reservation for the Maronite Christians and carved out of the flank of Greater Syria. The French, another charming people, had long treasured the idea of the Maronites as their little brothers in the ME. The outcome of WW1 gave them a chance to realize this sentimental dream in that they held the League of Nations Mandate for what are now Syria and Lebanon. The result was Lebanon in its present boundaries but the French made a fatal error. For reasons of "economic viability" they made Lebanon a lot larger than the various Maronite enclaves and thus created a situation in which ancient enemies would confront each other politically forever.
To further poison the pot, the creation of Israel and the flight of many, many Palestinians into Lebanon threatened to further de-stabilize the political balance among the multitude of competing factions. The Lebanese response to this was to permanently bar Palestinian refugees from the possibility of attaining Lebanese citizenship and the vote. There were a few exceptions, but not many.
It must be said that the collective Lebanese personality with its proclivity for ostentatious display and the endless scheming to obtain the funds needed to support that display contributes to the instability of their lives. There is precious little sense of civic duty in Lebanon. Public spaces are neglected and a sense of national cohesion is talked about but little felt.
At the same time the aforesaid meddling of foreign embassies and especially the US Embassy has been a constantly destructive and disruptive force. In particular the role played by US political players (the Zionists and the neocons) has been pernicious. Driven by these forces the US has insisted on non-cooperation with any Lebanese government that includes Hizballah ministers. Hizballah, in addition to being the only effective military force in Lebanon, is a mighty political force in its role as a political party operating within the Lebanese constitution. They hold a large bloc of seats in the parliament and they have other parties, notably Christian, as their allies. In spite of that, the US has sought to impede the functioning of Lebanese government because we simply do not care what happens to the country.
America's naive belief in the miracle of the assassination fantasy, especially when applied in the Middle East, reminds me of an Alzheimer's patient who believes in magic beans but fails to remember that the beans never sprout. We keep on planting the same seed and look anxiously for a beanstalk that never sprouts.
Killing Qassem Soleimani is the latest meaningless chapter in this blood soaked narrative of revenge and retribution against a "bad" guy. Killing a "bad" guy makes us feel proud and provides the emotional equivalent of a sugar rush. But there is no compelling evidence that these killings actually advance the cause of peace or coerce the other bad guys into hiding in a cave and praying that we go away.
Let me take you for a walk down memory lane. Let's start in Beirut in 1982--that's 38 years ago. In other words, if you are younger than 45 this is likely to be new to you.
"La chorale des orphelines de la Fondation de l’Imam Moussa al-Sadr venue chanter Noel à l’église Saint-Elie de Beyrouth en est la parfaite illustration. Ce spectacle, a priori anodin, peut représenter un exemple à suivre pour les autres pays, notamment en Europe, où malgré les vaines tentatives de formatage artificiel des esprits, les uns et les autres vivent dans une méfiance réciproque sans cesse grandissante." claudeelkhal blogspot
"Another video says that Hezbollah could soon have the capability to fly a missile onto an Israeli address as simply as if it was using the popular Waze navigation app. The propaganda clip even uses an animation of the app itself to drive its point home. Ironically, the video doesn't note that Waze was invented by an Israeli company.
These information operations come against a backdrop of real-world conflict. Israel has championed its operation last weekend against alleged Iranian-commanded Hezbollah drone operators in Syria when it flattened a compound with air strikes.
Israel has been coy about who has been responsible for at least four mysterious air strikes against Iranian-backed militia in Iraq. And silent about Lebanese and Hezbollah allegations that Israel attacked a Hezbollah site in southern Beirut with small drones, also at the weekend." CNN
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The IDF appears to have overcome its long-standing fear of "another 2006" and to be preparing for war against Hizbullah and indeed against all of Lebanon.
In that war the IDF used heavy American made artillery to attack Hizbullah's fortified belt of villages in southern Lebanon (the Tabbouleh Line). Following that, IDF armor and infantry sought to advance into that fortified belt but were met by barrier systems that canalized the tanks and troops into pre-planned killing zones where they were chopped up with Iranian made and product improved anti-tank missiles and aimed fire placed on the infantry from the firing apertures of fortified basements and other such positions. Those IDF infantry who managed to entered the villages found themselves face to face with Hizbullah infantry equipped with body armor and night vision equipment, The whole defensive system was tied together for communications with SIGINT proof buried armored signal cable.
After a cease fire the Hizbullahis moved their fortified line back to the north a few kilometers and re-built it better. Tabbouleh Line II?
In the midst of this assault on the Tabbouleh Line the IAF ranged far and wide across all of Lebanon attacking infrastructure targets in an obvious attempt to intimidate the Lebanese into abandonment of Hizbullah. That failed. The Lebanese showed no such inclination and that support was rewarded by Hizbullah with a prioritization of re-construction funds to Christian villagers.
Oh, yes, the IDF Chief of Staff was fired for his failures.
Since 2006 the IDF has brooded over the ever worsening strategic threat posed by Hizbullah artillery rockets, guided missiles and armed UAVs. My SWAG would be that Hizbullah artillery command now has something between 50k and 100k of such weapons in firing positions and storage behind the Tabbouleh Line II, which is now reinforced with many veterans of the Syria campaign in which Hizbullah troops have developed a lot of skill. and demonstrated their courage.
The Israeli strategic problem is that they cannot prevent a salvo or salvos of thousands of these weapons into the northern half of Israel. They can't break through on the ground quickly enough to do that and their air force will be faced with a lot of antiaircraft fire. This tends to degrade pilots' ability to press home attacks against individual weapon systems.
Nevertheless, the IDF seems to have decided to "grasp the nettle." Good luck sons of the Maccabees! Good Luck!
Would the US respond to mass Israeli civilian casualties with intervention in the fight? All the world wonders. pl
"Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said in a July 12, 2019 interview on Al-Manar TV (Lebanon) that Hizbullah can target and strike any part of Israel, including Eilat, and that all of northern Israel is within range of Hizbullah's weapons. Pointing at a map of Israel, he turned his attention to Israel's coast, where he said most of Israel's population lives. He said Hizbullah can strike all the government buildings, military installations, airports, economic centers, commercial centers, industrial centers, ports, nuclear installations, oil refineries, and power stations that are in this area. Nasrallah implied that Hizbullah has thousands of missiles that it can use to send Israel "back to the stone age." Claiming that Israel is "weaker than a spider's web," he said that Israel's attempts to prevent Hizbullah from acquiring weapons by striking Syria have failed, since Hizbullah already has the weapons in its possession. He also said that Israel will not succeed in trying to get Iran to leave Syria and that any attempt on the part of Israel to stay out of a potential future conflict in the Middle East would be futile because Iran can bomb Israel "violently" and "swiftly" and because Israel would never be left out of any war in the region, no matter how it starts. He stated that any war against Iran would lead to a region-wide conflict."
"Things keep heating up in Venezuela, with possible “military options” now being seriously discussed at the Pentagon. And of course you know what that means! That’s right, it means we can expect to see even more lies and manipulations from the political/media class as the narrative managers try to get their rapey little fingers into our minds to manufacture support for unconscionable acts." Johnstone
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Trumpy! These stiffs are losers! Losers! They lost in Iraq!. Remember! You say you like to win. These guys are losers. Keeping these losers will just drag you down! You always dump losers like these. Remember! Where did you get these stiffs? Who pushed them off on you? Get rid of them losers too!
Bolton torpedoed your deal with your friend Kim! Remember. Is he trying to torpedo your deal with China?
You know that you have to make some kind of deal with Russia and the great judomaster. Is Bolton trying to screw that up ?
The three stooges. Ah, no, Pompey the Magnificent is missing from the group mug shot. Trumpster! You should dump these guys, AND the crews who gave us the messes in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, the Golan Heights, Kushner's deal of the century, and the coming good deal in Lebanon.
Get some new ones. You can't let little people losers drag you down. pl
Unless you want to live in fantasy you must have the ability to think outside the box created by what you want rather than what is or is likely to be.
The Israelis live in such a box. In their box the world is filled with gentile monsters who must be dominated and manipulated. The manipulation part of that illusion is reinforced in their minds by their incredible success in forming public opinion in the US.
The Lebanese live in a different box in which they, in their collective mind's eye, are far more important to the rest of the world than they really are. A Lebanese I knew well often told other Lebanese that their mistake was in thinking that Bill and Hillary woke up every morning and asked each other " I wonder what is happening in Beirut today?" The truth is that Lebanon is only important to the Lebanese and that has always been true. It is particularly true now in the age of neo-neocon domination of US foreign policy. The cartoon like simplicity with which Bolton, Pompeo and Trump misunderstand realities on the ground in places like Lebanon is striking.
In service to Israeli ambitions for hegemony throughout the ME, these people have no interest whatever in the welfare of the Lebanese. In particular they are incapable of seeing Hizbullah as anything like an integral part of Lebanese society. No, they see these Lebanese Shia as nothing more than a threat to Israel. As I have pointed out, war against Hizbullah is already authorized under American law by their designation as a terrorist group and the AUMF against terrorism.
The Lebanese in Lebanon should understand that US Embassy Beirut has no policy influence in Washington. None! The true believer neo-neocons have no interest whatever in the opinions of State Department career bureaucrats who usually do not share their imperialist faith in the global destiny and mission of the US. Remember that truth when you are tempted to shower praise and attention on the inhabitants of Fort America in east Beirut. They are in exile among you.
Does any of this mean that I favor the aggressive and disrespectful bullying that emanates from Washington in the era of the neo-neocons? It does not, but I can recognize reality and this attitude toward Lebanon is real and must be recognized. The neo-neocons would not shrink from devastating southern Lebanon in order to wreck Hizbullah. pl
Last week Colonel Lang told us of the latest Middle Eastern goofiness of the Trump administration focusing on our declaring the IRGC a terrorist organization and Pompeo’s truly zany effort to turn the Lebanese government against Hizbullah. If not for the deadly seriousness of the potential consequences, our efforts to reshape the Middle East would be fodder for several Monty Python skits.
Why are we doing this? Well, there is the longstanding neocon addiction to treating the entire world as our personal plaything. There is also the unhealthy hold the Israelis and Saudis have on our body politic. Reinforcing this hold is the drive to hasten the rapture among large segments of the American evangelical community. I don’t think I’m alone in seeing this as a dangerous situation.
Pompeo’s latest buffoonery lead Colonel Lang and myself to wonder if the US and Israel are planning to take out the Hizbullah missile threat. That Hizhullah threat remains a knife in the heart of Israel’s myth of invulnerability. This threat is discussed in a JINSA opinion piece that appeared last month in “The Hill.” The JINSA piece called for US sanctions against Hizbullah-controlled Lebanese ministries. We’ll see if the US tries this approach now that Pompeo’s effort to convince Michel Aoun to turn his back on Hizbullah ended in abject failure. I’m sure the Pentagon has developed plans to attack Hizbullah’s missile arsenal. The Pentagon has plans foreverything. I’m also pretty damned sure these plans depend on first goading Hizbullah and/or the IRGC into providing a pretense for such an attack. Good luck with that. Not only are Hizbullah and the IRGC extraordinarily disciplined, but they also have non-kinetic ways of reacting to Western goading.
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Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah slammed the U.S. decision to designate the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group, saying that Washington’s “audacity and folly” went beyond limits. “Blacklisting the IRGC is an evidence that it is strong and not weak and this is an expected move by the Great Satan,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech commemorating the day of “Resistance Wounded Fighters” on April 10.
Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the U.S. has blacklisted the IRGC, citing alleged terrorist activists by the Iranian group as a reason. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council retaliated to Washington’s decision by labeling the U.S. Army military as terrorist organization.
Nasrallah warned that Hezbollah and its allies from the so-called “axis of resistance” will not continue to deal with the U.S. hostile moves with “condemnation, denouncement and patience.” The Lebanese leader said the axis has other options on all battlefields. “Our choices are open but we will act calmly, with a cool head and at the right time, in all battlefields and arenas,” said Nasrallah.
The Hezbollah leader’s warning confirms the fears of some U.S. officials, who had warned that designating the IRGC as a terrorist group could endanger U.S. troops deployed in the Middle East. Despite this some experts openly state that the administration of US President Donald Trump is moving towards an escalation scenario because it contributes to its current political interests.(South Front)
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I’m sure Nasrallah’s mention of “all battlefields and arenas” goes far beyond a targeting of US troops in the region. That would be unimaginative and exactly what the neocons desire. The old quote is “living well is the best revenge.” I think that’s the plan. “South Front” says that a strategic cooperation among Iran, Iraq and Syria on various projects is a nightmare for the US and Israel. Baghdad and Damascus will soon open the al Qaim crossing and, along with Tehran, plan on linking their national railways. China is interested in joining this as an extension of their One Belt, One Road initiative. Russia plans to assist Lebanon in the development of her offshore oil and gas fields. Of immediate importance Russia is moving to help resettle the 1.5 million Syrian refugees now living in Lebanon. That’s 1.5 million in a country with a population of six million. Now that’s a refugee crisis. This is of critical importance since Aoun has no intention of assimilating those refugees into Lebanese society given recent history and the nature of Lebanon’s political system.
Would Russia extend her defensive umbrella to include Lebanon if we attacked Hizbullah? Perhaps, but only reluctantly. Russia does not want a wider war. Syria, however, may be more ready to assist if needed. She owes Hizbollah. Even if Russia is reluctant to launch missiles against US and Israeli aircraft, she may be far less reluctant to employing her formidable radio-electronic combat capabilities. That alone could blunt the effectiveness of an attack on Hizbullah facilities.
In short, I feel an effective US-Israeli attack on Hizbullah missile forces is a pipe dream. Hizbullah won’t be goaded and Russian-Syrian aid, even limited aid, could make such an attack ineffective. Unfortunately, I don’t have confidence in the Trump administration’s ability to grasp this reasoning.
"“Lebanon and the Lebanese people face a choice: bravely move forward as an independent and proud nation or allow the dark ambitions of Iran and Hezbollah to dictate your future,” he said while standing next to the foreign minister, Gebran Bassil, after an afternoon meeting. Mr. Pompeo added that it would “take courage” for Lebanon to stand up to what he called Hezbollah’s “criminality, terror, and threats.”
Mr. Bassil, who is an ally of Hezbollah, countered Mr. Pompeo in his own post-meeting statement, saying: “For us, Hezbollah is a Lebanese party, not terrorists. Its members of parliament were elected by the Lebanese people, with high popular support.”" NY Times
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"Lebanese President Michael Aoun reportedly received a US-Israeli document detailing plans for creating a civil war in Lebanon, during US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Beirut, Lebanon on March 22nd.
According to the report, the source of the document is Israeli and it was created in partnership with the US, it is unclear who exactly presented it to President Aoun." SF and al Jadeed
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Well now, pilgrims, the trick in looking at this story is to figure out how much of this can possibly be true. "Al Jadeed" has a long history of tilting at windmills, but ... there is a certain madcap consistency in this story with the Trump/Bolton/Pompeo view of their role in history and willingness to "think big."
I don't think anyone would have been foolish enough to actually give the Lebanese a document that laid out this scheme, but that does not mean that Pompeo the Great did not verbally press this evidence of his mastery of the world on Aoun and company.
For him to do that would have required a presidential "finding" under the US National Defence Acts for what would undoubtedly be covert warfare, but that could be. There must by now be a number of findings signed by Trump to authorize such efforts as the march of freedom toward Caracas, etc.
Would the Israelis be goofy enough to have suggested/ordered such a plan? As I have written here before, Hizbullah's massive rocket and missile capability poses a strategic problem to Israel all the way down to Tel Aviv. This capability is protected from Israeli attacks by the Tabbouleh Line of entrenched Hizbullah militia, many of them very combat experienced in Syria. The Israelis do not want to repeat their 2006 experience against what was then a weaker TL but they yearn for an end to Hizbullah's retaliatory capability against Israel.
How much easier or possible it might be to take down Hizbullah by fomenting an anti-Hizbullah civil war within Lebanon.
Unfortunately for this hope Hizbullah is a fully integrated part of Lebanese society and government. President Aoun, a Maronite Christian, and his foreign minister made that clear to the Pomp. The notion that Lebanon can still be split like a melon by spreading a bucket full of money around is typical of the arrogance and ignorance with which Israeli policy still views its neighbors.
My SWAG is that this Al-Jadeed report represents the decision of some Lebanese politician to debrief to the TeeVee station concerning the verbal statements made by Pompeo in Lebanon.
"The king said that the plan was dangerous and not simple to implement, in particular the part relating to the land swaps in Tzofar, a moshav in the Arava desert, and Naharayim, where Jordan conquered in 1948 the Island of Peace and a hydroelectric power-plant that belonged to Israel. According to the Trump proposal, Jordan would receive from Saudi Arabia an area equal in size to these territories which Israel would reacquire.
In addition, Jordan has been asked to take in a million “Palestinian” refugees in several stages, in return for $45 billion in investments. Jordan’s entire GDP is only $40 billion. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states will finance these investments." Jewish Press
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The full "good deal of the century" will evidently be revealed after the Israeli election.
Pieces of the "good deal of the century" have previously been revealed.
The move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem has been followed by endless Palestinian waves of self immolation along the Gaza "dead line." This will continue indefinitely unless the Beebster or his successor decide to re-occupy Gaza to stop Palestinian rockets reaching Tel Aviv. Now, that would be a spectacle.
Another piece of "The Kushner Plan" was the cession by the US of the occupied Syrian Golan Heights to Israel. The justification for this was that the Israelis hold it by force of arms. Syria, of, course does not accept the US transfer of title deed to part of its territory.
These two things are typical of Trump's NY City real estate methodology. In his mind he is systematically taking points of contention off "the bargaining table" so that he can "close" over what's left.
This latest "offer" made to Jordan is part of what is left. Perhaps some savant can explain what the various parts of this "partial good deal" mean. " A million Palestinians?" Where would they come from? Would they be round up for transportation to The East? Saudi Arabia would transfer land to Jordan? Where? On the Gulf of Akabah coast near Tabuk? Really? The Saudis and Gulfies would cough up $45 billion for investments in Jordan? To do what? Tourism? Really? And who would own these enterprises? Lebanon will give its citizenship to the hordes of Palestinian descended people who inhabit the country? They have firmly resisted this for decades.
"As for arms sales, someone needs to brief Mr. Trump on the actual results of the promises made to him when he visited Riyadh last year. As Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution sums it up, “The Saudis have not concluded a single major arms deal with Washington on Trump’s watch.” Moreover, an end to supplies of U.S. spare parts and technical support, something Russia cannot provide, would quickly ground the Saudi air force. That would have the welcome effect of ending a bloody bombing campaign in Yemen that a U.N. investigation concluded was probably responsible for war crimes." Washpost
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Once again, I am not a great fan of Bezos or his blog, but two days in a row they have printed something I can agree with. Something has changed for him.
It has become a meme in the blather that runs shrill and shallow in the US media, that Saudi Arabia is a faithful, and indispensable ally of the US in the ME. Bezos disputes this and so do I.
A few points:
Yes, they chop heads off after Friday prayers outside the local mosque. They also do hands and feet. They stone to death women found guilty of adultery. They sew them in bags before the men present throw handy five pound rocks at them. The government is deeply approving of this. Sound familiar? Yes, it should. The jihadis whom the Saudis sponsor in Syria do the same things. The Sunni jihadis are nearly defeated in Syria and it has become clear that the Saudi government has been evacuating their leaders, probably with US connivance, so that they can pursue greater visions of jihad elsewhere.
The importance of Saudi Arabia in the world oil market is IMO now much exaggerated. They can undoubtedly do some damage by manipulating the short term contract (spot) market but this is something they would pay for heavily. The Kingdom is cash strapped. It was not for nothing that MBS turned the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh into a prison for the wealthy including many of his own kin in order to squeeze and in some cases torture them into handing over a lot of their cash to the government. Depressed petro sales at artificial prices will only further reduce revenue to the government.
The notion that Saudi intelligence contributes much to the GWOT is a joke. Saudi intelligence competence is something that exists only in pitchmen's claims voiced by TV touts. In fact, they get almost everything they have from the US and are like greedy baby birds always looking to be fed. They cannot organize a trip to the gold plated toilet. It took 15 of them to ambush Khashoggi, well, OK, 14 of them and a doctor to carry the electric bone-saw.
We need to sell them more equipment that they cannot use? It does not appear to me that any of the contracts that they promised to DJT has been signed. Their technique is simple. Keep the hope of profit for the US alive as leverage.
Lastly, the chimera of a great Arab alliance (a la NATO) is delusory. The Saudis lack both the organizational ability for such a thing and significant military power. They possess one of the world's largest static displays of military equipment. They have neither the manpower nor the aptitude to use such equipment effectively. As I have written previously, the Gulf Arabs have long had such an alliance. It is the GCC and it has never amounted to anything except a venue for the Arab delight in meetings and blather.
The basis for the desire for such an alliance is the Israeli strategic objective of isolating Iran and its allies; Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas with an eventual hope of destroying the Iranian theocracy. Israel is frightened of a possible salvo of many thousands of missiles and rockets into Israel from Lebanon as well as an eventual successful creation of a missile deliverable nuclear weapon by the Iranians. These are real and credible threats for Israel, but not for FUKUS. Israel has only two really valuable counter-value targets; Haifa and Tel Aviv. A hit on one or both with a nuclear weapon would be the end of Israel. The Israelis know that.
Adroit information operations carried out over generations by the Israeli government and its supporters have created in the collective US mind an image of Iran as a disguised 3rd Reich. This was well done. The same operation was run against Iraq with magnificent results from the POV of Israel
"Yemeni Shi'ite Muslim Houthi fighters backed by government forces drove the local wing of al Qaeda from one of its last strongholds in central Yemen on Friday in intense fighting that killed at least 35 people, tribal sources said.
The Houthis' Ansarullah movement has become the main political force in Western-allied Yemen since capturing Sanaa in September and then pushing south and west into the Sunni Muslim heartland of al-Bayda province, where Ansar al-Sharia has allied itself with local tribes.
Yemen has been in turmoil since 2011, to the dismay of neighboring Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, and of the Western powers who want to prevent instability in the Arabian peninsula threatening their crude supplies or giving al Qaeda a base for overseas attacks.
Tribal sources said the Houthis had met stiff resistance as they pushed towards the village of Khobza district using Katuysha rockets and heavy artillery.
They said at least 25 Houthis and 10 Ansar al-Sharia and tribal fighters had died in the fighting, which began on Thursday afternoon. Ansar al-Sharia and its allies withdrew to Yakla district, on the border with Maarib province." Reuters
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Full disclosure - I was once DEFATT in Yemen at Sanaa.
A primer on some aspects of Yemen:
- Zeidi (fiver) Shia Muslims are so conservative (restrained) religiously that they are sometimes thought of as a fifth Sunni mathab. Their theology and general view of the religious sciences follow the mu'tazilite tradition. They are quite distinct from and have little allegiance to the 12er Shia in Iran, Lebanon and other scattered places.
- From a few miles south of Sanaa to the northern reaches of the country where it "borders" Saudi Arabia the country is almost altogether Zeidi Shia in population. Those people are tough little mountaineers, who are extremely tribal in their lives and who are generally aligned in two major tribal confederations, the Baqil and the Hashid. These tribal confederations are the real power in Yemen north of Sanaa. they possess a lot of military equipment that was mainly stolen from the government when officers who are members of these confederations defected back to their true allegiance taking their gear and often soldiers with them.
- The former president, Ali Abdullah Salih, was a Zeidi tribesman of the Sanhan minor tribe of the Hashid confederation.
- From Sanaa south, Yemen is primarily inhabited by much less tribal villagers who are Sunni and usually of the shafa'i mathab. These folks are the recruiting ground for AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia and similar Sunni salafi jihadi groups for whom the Zaidi tribesmen of the north are just another kind of murtadoon (heretics) to be fought to the death.
- Further complicating the mozaic of groups that is Yemen is the lingering effect of British possession of the Aden crown colony for many years. In the course of that period a lot of Yemenis from Aden attended such schools as the London School of Economics where they became both atheistical and left wing politically. Such people are still on the scene in the cities and continue to be active in the government of a united Yemen.
- The Houthis are a Zeidi Shia reformist movement that draws solely on the Zeidi population of the north. It does not have and cannot have any friendly relations with the Sunni jihadi groups of the south. The movement started in the al-houthi clan and has since spread to the two major confederations of Zeidi tribesmen. The Houthis as a cult prefer not to fight if it can be avoided and captured the capital, Sanaa, with very little violence. Salih, a Zeidi tribesman understandably sides with the Houthis as opposed to the Sunni, left oriented people now running the government of the United Yemen.
- A government of national unity has been formed among; the Houthis and their army, the national army and the nationalist/left dominated functionaries now in office in Sanaa. This coalition is actively and successfully fighting the Sunni jihadis.
The US government response to all this is to denounce the Houthis and Salih as interfering with stability and the integrity of the Yemeni state. This reflects the ignorant, obsessive, insistence of the American foreign policy establishment that "one size fits all" in terms of the norms of governance across the world with the implication that the US embassies in such countries as Yemen are actually pro-consular outposts from which the ambassador/governor guides and controls the province/country in which he/she is located. When this attitude, derived from notions of "exceptionalism," is accompanied by the IR/Poly Sci paradigm of foreign relations now so evident in the US government, the result is the noxious self-defeating environment in which US decisions are now made. pl
Muqtada al-Sadr. When he led the Army of the Mahdi against US occupation of Iraq, American troops called him Mookie. He was a nasty fat fils a papa and spawn of a distinguished Shia scholar. In those days he had very little in the way of religious credentials, but he summoned many who hoped for the return of the Shia Mahdi (perhaps the occulted Imam himself?) . The summoned 12ers often followed him and for a time his followers were a major problem for the US mission civilisatrice in the ME. After all, how could one "get on" with the region-wide campaign to geld forces hostile to Israel when this pest with his "simple minded" fanatics opposed. Sooo, a solution was devised. The US Army and USMC massed their highly trained enlisted snipers against those awaiting the Mahdi and killed near on a thousand of them. Mookie understood that it was only a matter of time for him personally. When that happened he decided that Western style politics were not as bad as he had thought and went to Iran to work on his religious qualifications pending a return to politics in Iraq. Babak will know but I recall that he became something like a Hojjat al-Islam. Now he is back and somehow unaccountably at least mildly anti-Iranian. He is the principal winner in the recent parliamentary election along with his communist party allies. He now has the problem of finding enough coalition partners to form a government. He cannot be PM because he did not win a seat himself, but will dictate the identity of the victim. I would not be surprised if the US courts him, seeking a good relationship. After all, he is supposedly anti-Iranian and that is the touchstone of American policy in the region, that, and indifference to the Palestinians.
Hassan Nasrullah. Since the last Lebanese general election the US has steadfastly sought to obey Israeli guidance in opposing the presence of the Hizbullah Party, as opposed to the Hizbullah Army in the government of Lebanon. Feltman and Satterfield were ambassador there throughout that period. Feltman is a "coach" for Nikki at the UN and David Satterfield is now acting Assistant Secretary of State for the Near Est. They brought him back from retirement for that. He must have done an effective job in Lebanon. In the recent election the March 8 Alliance (Hizbullah, Amal, Aounists, Druze, and various cats and dogs) seem to me to have 55 seats in parliament. That appears to be a majority, and that coalition will dominate the new parliament. This is a big problem for the US. Hizbullah sits on Israel's northern border poised to rain fire and death on a wide range of Israeli targets of both the counter-value and counter-force types. A big enough bombardment could cripple Eretz Israel for a long time. Ah, no, I forgot. Trump and the US branch of the Knesset would immediately vote an immense amount of borrowed money for Israel. Ah, no, I forgot again. B-52s over the Tabbouleh Line would be another likely response. pl
Has the Russian Government moved their C&C and important figures to their safe havens in the Urals? There is a lot of military activity afoot in Russia since Trump opened his mouth and inserted his foot with his latest Syria threats and promises of missile strikes on Syria.
Has President Putin invoked Articles 87 and 88 of the Russian Constitution that deals with declaration of a national emergency in the event of direct threats of aggression to the Russian Federation? Given the situation this is most probably so.
Recent military activity (they're calling it training) that stretches from Siberia to the Urals
Putin's annual address to the Federal Assembly on March 1st included a simulated launch of the Sarmat, and the claim the latest edition of the Sarmat has almost no distance limitations. One could conclude that these are Putin's final warning to the West.
Even Turkey has warned that a potential Russia - U.S. conflict in Syria will set the Mideast on fire.
Russia’s ambassador to Lebanon said yesterday that any U.S. missiles fired at Syria would be shot downandthe launch sites targeted, a step that could trigger a major escalation in the Syrian war.
"And, maybe MbS and Kushner thought Netanyahu spoke for Israel when he promised to be a partner in the front against Hezbollah and Iran? Was it the “grand plan” that was affirmed between Netanyahu and Trump on the day before the latter launched his United Nations broadside at Iran in September? When in fact, while any Israeli Prime Minister can wage war against the Palestinians with a relatively free hand, the same is not true where the state of Israel itself is being put at stake. No Israeli P.M. can commit to a possibly existential conflict (for Israel), without having broad support from the Israeli political and security establishment. And the Israel Establishment will only contemplate war when it is plainly in the Israeli interest, and not merely to please MbS or Mr Trump.
Ben Caspit (and other Israeli commentators) confirm that the Israeli establishment does not see war with Hezbollah, and the risk of a wider conflict, to be in the Israeli interest.
The fallout from this episode is highly significant. It has exposed that Israel presently is deterred from contemplating a war in the region (as Caspit explains). It too has underlined the hollowness of MbS ambitions to mount a “Sunni Alliance” against Iran; and it has undercut President Trump’s containment policy for Iran. For now, at least, we may expect Iran and Russia to consolidate the state in Syria, and to stabilize the northern tier. Caspit’s “war of Armageddon” may yet arrive – but not for now, perhaps." Crooke
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An eloquent contemplation of the interaction of career Borgists (foreign policy establishment) in Washington with the crowd of enthusiastic amateurs who are DJT's true inner circle. Kushner, Bibi and MbS thought up this idea of a "Sunni Alliance,' sold it to DJT and then went forth to re-shape the world. My God! What an absurdity!
If Crooke is right about this cabal of dunces, the notion circulating that people like Mattis, McMaster, Tillerson, Pence are effective minders for Trump preventing the worst of his potential rogue elephant behavior is just completely wrong. If Crooke is right, then Trump ran this little "caper" all by hisself with the help of "the fam" as Bill Murray once called it.
I would agree with Crooke that the Sunni Alliance as he formulates it was always silly.
1. Saudi Arabia is worthless as military muscle. Yemen! Yemen! Yemen! Had anyone in the cabal noticed that the Saudis have fallen on their asses in Yemen? To launch Saudi and other Gulfie legions at Iran would be precisely like throwing eggs at a brick wall.
2. As Crooke writes, Israel really IS deterred by Hizbullah's potentially murderous rocket and missile fire from hardened positions in Lebanon. the Israelis are far too smart not to know that. Their ambition in this cabal was likely to find others to do their fighting for them while they made threatening noises. pl
IMO Bibi is trying to steer the world of the goyim . Iran and Hizbullah are his betes noires. In Jared Kushner he has IMO a nearly perfect liaison to send back and forth between Washington and Riyadh to whisper in the ears of the high and mighty and to "inform" his father in law, an ignoramus in geopolitics, as to Bibi's "truth."
In Bibi World an optimum outcome would be for the US and Israel to destroy Hizbullah's strategic rocket and missile forces using US strategic air and cruise missile assets and then move on to wrecking Iran.
Let us be clear, Saudi Arabia would contribute nothing to such wars. Their armed forces are some of the world's largest static displays of export model military equipment. As my Canadian grandfather used to say of the truly useless, "they aren't worth a piss hole in the snow."
Adel Jubeir (aka the Chihuaha) is the foreign minister of SA. He is a commoner kept around as a convenience because he speaks native US English. He acquired that from attendance at US community schools in the various capitals in which his diplomat father served. Jubair now claims that the missile fired at Riyadh was "smuggled" into Yemen from Iran and fired by Lebanese Hizbullah. Well, guess what? These are Bibi's two great bugaboos. Where do you think the Chihuahua got this "data?" Saudi Arabian intelligence is a joke. They can't find their asses with both hands. IMO Jubair got that from Kushner who got it from the Israelis. I would bet my own money that Kushner's phone and E-mail traffic would be very interesting to read.
The missile battalion of the pro-Salih faction of the Yemeni Army who fired this missile have a long experience of ballistic missiles. They had SCUD when I was Defense Attache there thirty years ago. They have been firing ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia throughout the present war.
(This is Muhammad bin Salman the crown prince of SA)
"Prince Miteb, the preferred son of the late King Abdullah, was once thought to be a leading contender for the throne before the unexpected rise of Prince Mohammed two years ago.
He had inherited control of the National Guard, an elite internal security force built out of traditional tribal units, from his father, who ran it for five decades.
Prince Miteb was the last remaining member of Abdullah’s branch of the family to hold a position in the upper echelons of the Saudi power structure.
The move consolidates Crown Prince Mohammed’s control of the kingdom’s security institutions, which had long been headed by separate powerful branches of the ruling family.
Prince Mohammed, the king’s 32-year-old son, already serves as defense minister and was named heir to the throne in a June reshuffle that sidelined his older cousin, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef who had also served as interior minister." Reuters
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IMO what we are seeing here is the consolidation of power within the Salman branch of the Sudairi side of the Saudi royal family.
These people are descendants of abd al-aziz al-saud, the creator of Saudi Arabia as a family owned "executive monarchy." They are all rivals (or potential political allies) in a giant family cousinage of grandchildren, great-grandchildren, etc. of the Wahhabi ruler of Najd who emerged from the desert to seize control of most parts of the Arabian Peninsula. There are thousands of people in the Family.
There are other important figures in the nomenklatura of Saudi Arabia but at root if you are not "family," you are not.
The present king, Salman has appointed his 32 year old son to be his successor as king. This man, Muhammad bin Salman (pictured above) has a vision of of Saudi Arabia as being the hegemon of the ME with influence that reaches beyond its money and political skullduggery. He sees SA as ally and mentor of both Israel and the US and Iran as principal obstacle to achievement of his dream. Saad Hariri's flight into the crown prince's embrace is well timed to help weld together the anti-Shia coalition. Velayati's visit to Beirut was a great excuse for his move.
IMO this purge is intended to achieve the intimidation or removal of those who are the crown princes' rivals on the secular side of Saudi society. Mit'ab bin Abdullah was the head of SANG, a non MODA armed force for decades. Bin Talal is a major financial power in the world.
If there is not a successful coup against the crown prince in the next days, his follow up move will probably be to purge the Shia clergy of the Eastern Province. pl
"Hariri’s coalition, which took office last year, grouped nearly all of Lebanon’s main parties, including Hezbollah. It took office in a political deal that made Michel Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, president, and was seen as a victory for Iran.
The resignation risks exacerbating sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shi‘ite Muslims and returning Lebanon to paralysis in government.
It was not immediately clear who might succeed Hariri, Lebanon’s most influential Sunni politician.
The prime minister must be a Sunni in Lebanon’s sectarian system. Aoun must appoint the candidate with most support among MPs, who he is expected to consult in the coming days.
“We are living in a climate similar to the atmosphere that prevailed before the assassination of martyr Rafik al-Hariri. I have sensed what is being plotted covertly to target my life,” Hariri said." Reuters
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The US, Saudi Arabia and Israel have adamantly opposed the existence of the coalition presently headed by Aoun and Nasrullah. IMO Hariri's resignation indicates a possible decision to use Israeli military force if necessary to destroy the existing coalition in Lebanon.
Hariri fled to Saudi Arabia and communicated his resignation to President Aoun from there claiming that the Iranians and Hizbullah have been plotting to assassinate him as the constitutionally appointed Sunni Prime Minister.
This would serve as a convenient casus belli for an Israeli attack on Hizbullah carried out in frustration over US failure at al-bukamel.
"On Wednesday, Hamas’s deputy political chief Saleh al-Arouri met with Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in Lebanon’s Beirut.
The two sides discussed the recent developments and situation in Gaza in wake of the recent Israeli actions in the the region and emphasized the need of solidarity and unity in front of the Zionist aggression.
They also discussed the Palestinian national reconciliation and the situation in the region.
Narsallah gave condolences for a number of dead Palestinian resistance member by Israel army attack on their tunnel east of Khan Yunis, in an area south of Gaza strip.
In this regard, Hasan Nasrallah spoke with Ramadan Shala, a leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) movement, and gave condolences for the dead resistance members during the recent Israeli attack.
Condemning this action, Nasrallah praised the resistance and sacrifices of the resistance forces in Gaza, especially members of the PIJ." Islamic World News and South Front
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This was not a pointless "grip and grin." As the Israelis well know Hizballah holds their population centers at risk in what amounts to a counter-value targeting program. They have never devised a response to that since they fear to fight Hizballah again on the ground and general bombing against the Lebanese and their economy will not impress Hizballah.
Therefore, a growing unity of purpose and sympathy between Shia Hizballah and a largely Sunni and re-united Palestinian movement is bad news for the Israelis.
The tighter that bond grows the more likely it will be that a renewed Israeli war against Gaza's population could trigger a massive Hizballah barrage against the northern half of Israel. pl
"After the IDF withdrawal from most of Lebanon in 1985, Hezbollah with active support from the IRGC began to create its own weapons arsenals, and the January 1989 Damascus-Tehran agreement allowed Hezbollah to restore its military infrastructure and resume operations in south Lebanon. Thus by 1991 Hezbollah became the leading Lebanese resistance force, operating in the country’s south against the IDF
Starting in early ‘90s, Hezbollah began a transition away from being a purely paramilitary formation. In the summer of ’92, Iran’s leaders recommended Hezbollah transform itself from an openly extremist organization into an active Lebanese political force. Hezbollah reached an internal compromise between the “moderates” and “radicals”, established a ceasefire with Amal, and began active preparation for parliamentary elections. Hezbollah today acts as the leading political force in Lebanon and as a major Shia social and humanitarian organization (Lebanon has an estimated 2.5 million Shia out of 6.2 million total population). IDF withdraw from south Lebanon in 2006 was a huge victory in the eyes of the Arab world. Hezbollah has truly become a significant regional factor. Growing its influence in Lebanon and Syria and the region with Iran’s help, Hezbollah has become a base for recruitment, training, and preparation of volunteers for battling Israel and radical Sunni organizations. Hezbollah units often fight like regular army nits.
One of the reasons for the rise of Hezbollah’s regional influence is the strategic coordination between the Lebanese and Iraqi Shia, and also Syrian Alawites due to the continuous war in the Middle East. It’s important to note that the organization has proved its worth even in the darkest hours of Lebanon’s history, such as the many years of almost uninterrupted slaughter, but also during the perennial clashes with its external adversaries, even dangerous ones like Israel." South Front
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Hizbullah and its "cadre" (regular full time) forces, reserve forces and paramilitary youth movements is the strongest political and military force in Lebanon. contrary to the misinformation fed to DJT, Hizbullah is an integral part of the Lebanese government. It has 11 seats in the Lebanese parliament and two ministers in Saad Hariri's government of the moment. Hariri must have been floored when DJT said to him that Hizbullah was an enemy force, but, Trump was just repeating what the Zionists tell him every day.
I was unaware that Hizbullah now has a fully formed armored brigade (tanks) that is serving in Syria. This is IMO part of the process by which Hizbullah is becoming a regular army, in fact, the real Lebanese Army.
"David’s Sling, meant to counter medium-range missiles possessed by Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, will be operational in early April.
This marks the completion of Israel’s missile defense system, he said.
That includes the Arrow, designed to intercept ballistic missiles in the stratosphere from long-range threats like Iran and Iron Dome that defends against short-range rockets from Gaza. The official spoke anonymously in line with protocol.
Israeli deployed its Arrow system Friday when Syria fired missiles at its jets on a mission to destroy a weapons convoy bound for Hezbollah." Washpost
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The deployment of this system will mark a turning point. As I have written on SST many times Israel has been deterred since 2006 from attacks on the Tabouleh Line -2 (Hizbullah missile and rocket systems). This system plus Iron Dome may change that calculus altogether and Israel may become a great deal more aggressive not only in Lebanon but over Syria as well while looking to demonstrate the cost of any resistance to Israeli military power and political hegemony. pl
"Naftali Bennett and Lebanese president agree: There's no line between Hezbollah and Lebanese state. Lebanese must realize another war with Israel means Lebanon will be sent back to Middle Ages, Bennett tells Haaretz. " haaretz
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Naftali Bennett evidently wants himself to be thought Israel's Curtis Lemay. Lemay's B-29s killed 100,000 Japanese civilians in one night over Tokyo.
I suppose this is all political BS reflecting NB's desire to replace Bibi at some future date. Bibi is looking like something approaching its "sell buy" date. He is being investigated for graft. He has also sued a reporter for asserting in print that his wife treats him like a not very valued dog. NB is watching in the light of ever increasing Israeli xenophobia and belligerence towards its Arab neighbors. Israel has for many years sought (successfully) to use American leverage to exclude Hizbullah from Lebanese government in spite of its electoral power. This is now at an end with Michel Aoun's statement that Hizbullah s an integral part of the Lebanese state. In response Bennett threatens a general application of the theory of strategic bombing if Hizbullah fires into Israel.
Well pilgrims, the trouble with that is the actual separation (as I have written before) of the Hizbullah fortified Belt (Tabouleh Line II) and its fortified firing positions for 20 to 30 K of advanced model artillery rockets with longer range and guided missiles from the civil infrastructure and population of Lebanon.
In 2006 Israel attempted to breach Tabouleh Line I and failed. Nose to nose ground combat against HB headbangers in prepared positions wasn't something they could face up to. Air power? There was a lot of fairly small caliber anti-aircraft fire over HB lines and Israeli pilots evidently discovered that a "golden BB" (small arms hit) would kill them as dead as any gentile pilot. As a result accuracy in their air attacks on HB positions went WAY DOWN. At the same time the IDF (then headed by a bird man) carried out a country-wide air offensive against Lebanese civilian infrastructure and people. This wrecked the place but it had ZERO effect on the outcome of the 2006 War. HB moved back to prepared positions a few kilometers north to allow the UN to place peacekeeping forces between them and the Israelis and then re-construction in Lebanon began yet again.
A re-run of Israel's 2006 plan will prove nothing except to demonstrates that the IDF has no ability to keep HB from firing heavily into Israeli populated areas. The IDF knows this. Evidently Bennett does not. pl
R+6 elements have continued to eliminate pockets of jihadi/unicorn resistance in the Damascus region with many former opposition fighters accepting government pardons and amnesty. Those not willing to do so have been bussed north into Idlib Province. Most of the 5th Assault Corps of the SAA moved north into Hama Directorate after 25 December and attacked to eliminate the Rastan Pocket just north of Homs. By 1 January the pocket was largely gone and the 5th Corps had deployed most of its forces northward to the southern border of Idlib Province where they were positioned by New Year's Eve.
Evacuations from east Aleppo had largely ended by New Year's Eve with UN observer parties wandering about searching for mass graves in east Aleppo and getting drunk at New Year's Eve parties in the nightclubs of the western part of the city.
YPG/SDF forces captured the Tabqa dam on the Euphrates River on the day after Christmas.
Deir al-Zor remained firmly in government hands having been reinforced with air delivered supplies and equipment.
The newly promoted Tiger Force Commander, Fareeq (LTG) Suheil al-Hassan was seen in the streets of Aleppo in the days immediately following Christmas leading many to conclude that the reports of his troops (Tiger Forces and Desert Hawks) having remained in the Damascus area were a ruse de guerre.
The day after Christmas jihadi forces attempted to take the two Shia villages of Kafraya and al-Fu'a just north of Idlib City by storm. They were repulsed after hours of fighting with losses on both sides. Russian airborne engineers were airlifted into the villages the next day as well as Hizbullah and IRGC troops to bolster the defenses of the two villages. The engineers have used farm vehicles and explosives to demolish a number of roadside buildings along the 4700 ft. stretch of straight road between the villages. This road is in use as of New Year's Eve as an improvised airstrip for STOL aircraft and helicopters.
SOHR in London has been reporting in late December that Russian Spetznaz and Hizbullah raiding and reconnaissance parties have been engaged in acts of assassination of local jihadi leaders all over Idlib Province and in several cases have left messages pinned to the bodies designed to implicate rival jihadi groups in the area. Among the places raided was the area between the old Taftanaz air base east of the two Shia villages and the national M5 highway a few miles east of the air base.
Near the Bab al-Hawa border crossing three Turkish border guards were abducted the day after Christmas. They were found hanging from telephone poles on the Syrian side of the line. On the chest of the senior man was pinned a note in Turkish, Arabic and Russian that read "Measure for Measure."
It was reported on SANA on New Year's Eve that it is the opinion of the R+6 allies that the jihadis/the unicorns and their foreign supporters are merely stalling for time with talk of nation wide cease fires and negotiations and that the stalling is just an attempt to gain time to consolidate jihadi power in Idlib Province. SANA stated that the Syrian Government and its friends would act in accordance with this belief.
New Year's Day.
Coordinated concentric attacks began at Beginning Morning Nautical Twilight (BMNT) all around the perimeter of Idlib Province:
1. East from Lattakia in the direction of Jisr al-Shugur. The Syrian Marines seem to be the lead element, but there are reports of Russian armor with them.
2. North by 5th Assault Corps in the general direction of Idlib City. Initial priority of supporting fires seems to be tasked to them.
3. All around the western and NW perimeters of the government positions at Aleppo City, attacks began en echelon from south to north in a series of rolling offensives apparently designed to draw jihadi attention and reserves toward the north. R+6 forces have had some success in all these attacks. Khan Touman on the M5 highway fell to the Republican Guard at 1000 AM. Souhail's mobile reserve remained unlocated and uncommitted by the end of the day.
Russian air activity remained heavy throughout the day.
Requirement. State your opinion as to the likely development of game action in the period beginning 2 January to 10 January. pl &TTG
"Lebanon's lawmakers elected Michel Aoun, an lran-backed politician and former general, as president Monday, ending more than two years the country has gone without a leader.
Aoun, 81, is an ally of Hezbollah, the Shiite militia and political party backed by Iran that has helped Syrian President Bashar Assad survive a five-year civil war on Lebanon’s border.
The vote for Aoun, by 83 of parliament’s 127 members, shows Iran-backed political factions shouldered past those aligned with Saudi Arabia, replacing Syria as Lebanon’s chief foreign power broker.
Aoun’s “victory now is a victory for Hezbollah and that alliance, and certainly a kind of black eye for Saudi Arabia,” said Paul Salem, vice president for policy and research at the Middle East Institute, a think tank in Washington." USA Today
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President Aoun has now stated that he will seek to align Lebanon with the policies of; Hizbullah, Iran, the Syrian government and Russia. This is a remarkable change of heart since he fought so long and so hard to keep the Shia in Lebanon and Iran from wielding a compelling power in Lebanon. I hold the US and its Israeli inspiration to be largely responsible for this change of heart.
IMO the US has consistently backed the Hariris (father and son) in Lebanon in the evident belief that they were our men. This has been a mistake. Both Hariris have always been much closer to Saudi Arabia than to the US and Aoun sees this as a profound interference in Lebanon's affairs and her prospect for survival on Syria's doorstep. This support dates back to the early 80s when Philip Habib, Richard Murphy and Rafik Hariri swanned around the ME together trying to arrange an end to the Lebanon civil war. Rafik was Lebanese born but; had moved to Saudi Arabia, had made vast a amount of money in Saudi royal family sponsored government construction contracts, had become a Saudi subject (citizen), and accepted the Wahhabi version of Islam. The airplane that the Three Amigos traveled together in from country to country was the product of Rafik's exceptionally good financial fortune in Saudi Arabia.
After the rump Lebanese parliament accepted an armistice agreed on at Taif in Saudi Arabia largely over the heads of the Lebanese, it was decided by the Three Amigos (and those behind them) that Rafik Hariri, a Saudi Arabian national would assume an unelected role as PM of Lebanon after being re-granted Lebanese citizenship.
Saad Hariri, Rafik's son, returned to Lebanon with his father, resumed Lebanese identity and succeeded to his father's role as instrument of Saudi and US power in Lebanese politics. He has fulfilled that role ever since.
Now, we see that Aoun, aligned with the adversaries of Hariri's sponsors, has appointed Saad Hariri as PM and head of government in Lebanon.
Does anyone think this is a stable arrangement? pl
"During Lebanon's civil war, Aoun's battalion fought pro-Syria forces. He became the country's president in 1988, although some factions disputed it. He was then forced out of the presidential palace and into exile in France in 1990.
He returned to Lebanon in 2005 and has served as a member of parliament since then. He signed a memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah in 2006.
The Republican Guard Brigade welcomed Aoun back to Baabda Palace outside Beirut with a 21-gun salute, the state-run National News Agency, an arm of the Information Ministry, reported.
"This action highlights Hezbollah's activities within Syria as well as its integral role in the continued violence being carried out by the (President Bashar) Assad regime against the Syrian population," said David Cohen, then-Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence." CNN
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The US government caused the deadlock in Lebanese government over the last 29 months.
We did that by allowing the neocon faction in the Obama Administration to conduct an obstructionist political campaign in Lebanon designed to prevent the assumption of power by the elected parliamentary coalition of Hizbullah and Aoun's small Maronite Christian Party plus a few other small factions.
We did this for the purpose of blocking any participation by Hizbullah in Lebanon's government. It has been the fixed policy of the US to accomplish that goal just as it has been the policy of the US to block the functioning of the elected Hamas government in Gaza.
Can anyone doubt that we have done this in both places because of our servile attitude toward Israel's desires? In Lebanon our policy seems to have failed for the moment, but I have no doubt that President Clinton would continue and intensify the effort. pl
The Lebanese Ambassador to Russian Federation, Chawki Bou Nasser told Sputnik News on Tuesday that Beirut requested a large number of Kornet ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles), T-72 Tanks, and advanced cannons from Moscow. “Lebanon needs weapons to fight these people [terrorists], and especially the Russian rockets, there is one well known, Kornet, because Lebanon got some of the weapons and used them effectively, and is still working with the Russian side to provide these kinds of weapons… Kornet, and the cannons, and the tanks, T-72 tanks, although old — but Russia promised to renovate them and to update the systems in these tanks — and of course the shells for the cannons, ammunition,” Nassar said. “Lebanon is, of course, expecting to get these within a year,” the ambassador said, expressing hope that Russia will also follow up on its previous pledge to supply up to nine helicopters through a grant. (Al Masdar News)
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The Lebanese Army has been using the same equipment since the early 80s. Their main armored vehicles are the M-113 APC and the M-60 MBT. I was a young SF captain when we supplied them with this stuff. When I left, the LAF 8th Brigade was battle tested and competent. That was a long time ago.
For the first time since their civil war(s), the LAF is now forced to face an external enemy. It must take on the Nusra and IS jihadis in the Qalamoun Mountains. Whether they like it or not, the LAF must also coordinate with Hezbollah. They’ve done okay for the last two years, but they need improved equipment and training if they want to become a credible defense force. The upgraded T-72 tanks will be almost equal to the T-90. The Kornet ATGM is as good as anything we have and its thermobaric rounds are sweeter than sweet. What AA missiles might this equipment include? Obviously Russian trainers will accompany this equipment.
Israel is deathly afraid of improved LAF equipment falling into the hands of Hezbollah. That’s why every serious effort to equip the LAF with modern weapons has been stymied in the past. The Russians, however, may have decided that it’s time for the LAF to become a full and capable part of the R+6 coalition in the fight against the IS and it’s jihadi allies. We may be talking about the R+7 this time next year. If Russia supplies this equipment, will it go directly through Beirut or Tripoli? Will this spur closer coordination between the LAF and Hezbollah? What will Israel do? What can she do?
"The Syrian Arab Army’s 525th Regiment of the 18th Tank Division was under heavy attack near the T-4 Airport; this prompted a direct military intervention from their Russian advisers. In just two days, the Russian Marines helped the Syrian Armed Forces recapture the initiative in east Homs, while also recovering several points near the Al-Sha’ar Gas Fields and T-4 Military Airport. Now, with the Syrian Arab Army’s “Tiger Forces” pushing south towards the Al-Sha’ar Gas Fields, the Russian Marines can go back to their original role, which includes advising the Syrian Armed Forces." AMN
I have understood that Russian marines were in Syria to secure their air base complex and naval facilities at Latakia and Tartus as well as to do some line troop re-training. Now we see them committed to actual front line combat.
IMO this backs up my contention that the R+6 alliance in Syria lacks enough quality ground combat units to accomplish their many obvious objectives in population and geographical control of Syria's territory and resources.
It is easy to list the SAG's primary and current operational and strategic needs:
The portion of Aleppo City still under insurgent control must be re-occupied. The political effect of this success would greatly improve the over-all position of the SAG especially at Geneva. The world has awaited a serious effort to make this happen. Perhaps it will occur, but not yet.
Idlib Province needs to be re-occupied. If that occurred communications and trade would be freed between Aleppo City and both Latakia Province and Damascus to the south. A lack of progress in doing this and the reverses and lack of progress suffered by R+6 at places like Tel Issa and Khan Touman are indicative of an insufficiency of strength on the ground.
The continued existence of the large insurgent pocket around Rastan between Homs and Hama astride the main north-south highway is a major embarrassment for the integrity of the Syrian state. It does not seem that much is being done about this.
LOCs all over the eastern parts of Syria on the roads to Aleppo and Palmyra are continuously threatened by insurgent forces operating in what are really open, treeless, barren deserts. This indicates a continuing SAG inability to field enough forces to conduct patrol and local quick reaction forces to push the insurgents back from the roads. Please don't tell me that TE Lawrence did the same thing along the line of the Hijaz Railroad. Yes, he did and he was able to do that because the Turks were not strong enough in troops in the Hijaz to outpost and patrol the railroad line adequately.
In East Ghouta just beyond the eastern boundaries of Damascus, the SAA and other R+6 forces seem unable to muster sufficient force to clear what amounts to a surrounded and nearly isolated inferior force.
The need to advance from Palmyra to Deir Az-Zour and then to Raqqa is clear but there is not a lot of progress in doing that.
From Damascus south to the Jordanian border the real action seems to be the struggle for control between IS on the one hand and non IS insurgent forces on the other with the SAA largely in a spectator status.
All of that indicates to me that there just are not enough ground troops in R+6 to sustain the stated goal of the SAG to re-conquer the country. Why is that? Syria is a substantial country and many, many of its citizens loath and fear the prospect of living and dying under jihadi rule. Nevertheless, millions have fled to: Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Europe and Canada. Among these migrants are hundreds of thousands of men of military age (of all confessions) who have chosen to abandon their country to its fate.
The bi-polar policy of the US with regard to Syria contributes to this flight in that it both encourages resistance to the Syrian Government and also encourages the belief that the collapse of IS is inevitable and therefore personal self sacrifice would be foolish.
Russia, Hizbullah and Iran must be considering the inevitability of a negotiated peace that will destroy the Syrian state if the present correlation of forces continues. That inevitability is certainly the main objective of the neocons and R2P. pl
" ... the SAA and its allies supported by a significant number of Russian warplanes which remain in Syria are continuing active actions against terrorists excluded from the ceasefire agreements. SouthFront also received information that Putin’s decision of the partial withdrawal from Syria concided in time with a regular rotation of the aircraft involved in the Russian operation in Syria. The Russian Aerospace Forces rotate aircraft at the Hmeymim airbase regularly because of a high number of combat sorties conducted by them. By this decision, Russia is also holding an initiative at the diplomatic field. This fact is confirmed by US Secretary of State John Kerry’s decision to visit Russia next week to discuss the Syria crisis." AMN/Southfront
Hezbollah has mobilized more soldiers to help liberate the strategic desert city of Palmyra (Tadmur) after originally sending a small contingent to aid the government forces during the preliminary assault on the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham’s (ISIS) defenses. Hezbollah’s fighting prowess in this rugged mountainous/desert terrain gives them a strategic advantage over several other units participating in this offensive. Once Palmyra is liberated from ISIS, Hezbollah will likely turn their attention to the eastern slopes of the Qalamoun Mountains, where several terrorist groups have entrenched themselves near the town of Qarah on the Lebanese border.
Once again, it is my opinion that IS is collapsing in Syria and Iraq. They are starving to death as the money runs out, lost to R+6 and US air action against oil exports through Turkey. At the same time equipment and men are not coming down the reciprocal transport route from Turkey.
Hizbullah's willingness to invest more men in the struggle to take Palmyra is indicative of the continuing ambitions of the anti-jihadi alliance. A similarly aggressive effort is being made by the Syrian garrison of Deir az-Zor. IS seems incapable of halting that and a link-up with Syrian government forces to the west can be expected soon.
We await the advance of the 4th Syrian Corps into the Idlib cauldron battle. pl
" ... that state of affairs does not satisfy the SAA which ordered the Republican Guard’s 102nd Brigade and 416th Regiment to fully liberate Eastern Guta from the Islamists. SAA is supported by National Defense Force (NDF) militias and Palestinian Liberation Army units.
It appears that the attack will be focused on the Tel Ferzat heights and the agricultural college campus. These are the militants’ last strongholds in eastern Damascus.
Latakia Province
Commandos of the 103rd Republican Guard Brigade are performing beyond reproach in Latakia’s north-east, where they are operating with naval infantry and volunteer formation support. Nearly whole region is now clear of the militants.
Syrian commandos forced Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar ash-Sham off two key heights and approached the border with Turkey which is now only 2km distant. A few more heights remain to be cleared of the Islamists.
Aleppo Province
Earlier reports that the main supply road to Aleppo was cleared proved premature. Tiger Forces did indeed clear most of the towns along the “road of life”, however it still remains under militant fire.
Tiger Forces with Hezbollah support finally threw ISIS out of Al-Hamam. The commandos entered the village last evening and then forced the militants to abandon it. Militant counter-attack had failed, with the loss of 30 of their comrades. Additional 40 were wounded.
Stubborn fighting against ISIS is ongoing along the Sheikh Hilal–Ithriyah road, which is a secondary supply route into Aleppo. SAA forces received significant air support which struck militant reinforcement columns coming from Hama. It is expected the opening of both routes is only a matter of hours, and then the path to Aleppo will be once again clear." South Front
I am beginning to appreciate this "cease-fire." In essence the R+6 war against jihadis will continue as will the US coalition struggle with IS. At the same time TTG's favorite Kurds (with the help of our GB brothers) will press forward with efforts as fine as the recent victory at Shaddadi. Politically, the Russian coordination center at Lattakia has hung out the welcome banner for more or less non-jihadi resistance groups. this is splitting off those groups from the jihadis whom, we should remember, are still legitimate targets and objectives for air and ground action. At the same time, a somewhat reduced operational tempo provides an opportunity to rest and refit troops/militias committed too long to continuous combat. pl
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"Suicide bombers and gunmen attacked Iraqi army and police posts on the western outskirts of Baghdad on Sunday, killing at least 12 security forces and seizing positions in a grain silo and a cemetery, officials said.
The largest assault near the capital in months was still raging, said security officials who blamed Islamic State. A news agency that supports Islamic State said the group had launched a "wide attack" in Abu Ghraib.
Suicide bombers in vehicles and on foot attacked government positions 25 km (15 miles) from the centre of Baghdad and next to the international airport, government officials said.
Dozens of militants driving Humvees and pickup trucks fixed with machine guns attacked from the nearby Islamic State-controlled areas of Garma and Falluja, army and police sources added." Reuters
Well, so much for Iraqi government domination of the western approaches to Baghdad. The notion is laughable. IS in Northern Arabia may collapse from defeat in Syria and at the hands of the YPG Kurds. In that event the Iraqi "army" may re-occupy Mosul but that would be problematic in itself since IMO the Shia government in Baghdad will continue to oppress any and all Sunnis available for oppression. Like a leopard they cannot change their essential spots. pl
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" ... the Saudis may be applying pressure to secure the release of a member of the royal family held in Lebanon since October on drug charges. Abdul-Mohsen al-Waleed Al Saud was detained in Beirut after authorities seized two tons of amphetamine Captagon pills before they were loaded onto his private plane.
On Wednesday, a Lebanese prosecutor indicted Al Saud of dealing and using drugs. Other analysts suggest Saudi Arabia may be seeking to compensate for its declining hold over Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia’s influence has been dwindling in Lebanon since early 2011 when Sa’ad Hariri was ousted. For the past two years, the Saudi-backed March 14 coalition has failed to see one of their leaders elected president. Now they are nominating legislator Suleiman Franjieh, a close ally of Hezbollah, for the country’s top job.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah is boosted by recent victories in Syria. The resistance movement is fighting alongside the Syrian army against Takfiri militants supported by Saudi Arabia and its allies. “Saudi Arabia is feeling for a good reason that its influence in Lebanon is on the decline,” said Ayham Kamel, a Middle East expert with the political risk and consulting firm, Eurasia Group. “The Saudi message is don’t think you can translate victories in Syria and control the system in Lebanon. We have plenty of leverage through our economic muscles,” Kamel told the Associated Press." South Front
The Saudis should stick to their usual practice of the widespread distribution of money in Lebanon for the purpose of buying influence. This is their customary form of action and Lebanese of all confessions and classes are more than willing to participate. At the same time, most Christians, Sunni Muslims, Hizbullah and all the other associated Shia forces in Lebanon are determined to remain free of Saudi political control. This determination will not, of course, prevent the acceptance of Saudi money delivered through various "laundries." pl
" ... a Kremlin statement made clear Russia was committed to its campaign against Islamic State and "other terrorist organizations", an indication that it would also target groups in western Syria where jihadists such as al Qaeda are fighting Assad in close proximity to rebels deemed moderate by the West.
Russia says the "cessation" does not apply to its air strikes, which have shifted the balance of power toward Assad.
It says Islamic State and the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front are the main targets of its air campaign. But Western countries say Russia has in fact been mostly targeting other insurgent groups, including some they support.
The White House said Obama's discussion with Putin stressed the need to rush humanitarian aid to Syria and contain air strikes.
"In particular, President Obama emphasized the importance now of Russia playing a constructive role by ceasing its air campaign against moderate opposition forces in Syria," the White House said in a statement." Reuters
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I worked in Turkey long ago, with the Turkish Army actually. It was a very pleasant time, a two year vacation from the wars in SE Asia. I like the Turks. They are a lot like Americans used to be; blunt, inclined to direct action... At the same time they treasure a pleasure in scheming that they share with the Syrian and Lebanese descendants of the vassals of the Ottoman state.
The US and the West in general have encouraged an attitude in Erdogan's Turkey that mirrors Bibi's statement that "the Americans can be pushed easily." We all look malleable to Erdogan. He is an MB style salafi. He wants to think we are degenerate and doomed to live in a world dominated by his kind of Islam. We have given him no reason to think that is not the future. At the same time we have tolerated his traffic in IS oil coming across the border east of Azaz and west of Jarabulus. Why have we done that? We must know that the money derived from that trade supports IS.
Now he threatens Europe with release of masses of Muslim migrants upon them. We deserve to be threatened. We look soft.
Now the Turkish Army is shelling YPG positions around Menagh village and its airfield near Azaz in Syria. Why are they doing that? IMO they want to keep R+6 forces plus the YPG from closing the border Azaz-Jarabulus and the shelling is a warning. They have said that the Kurds must withdraw from these positions and not return.
Turkish 2nd Army is massing north of the Azaz/Jarabulus sector of the border. The Saudi Sunni led juggernaut is at least notionally intended for combat in Syria. Yesterday I raised the straw man idea that they might motor march all the way to Baghdad and beyond. That seems implausible. On the other hand a sea movement around Arabia and through the Canal to a major port like Iskenderun is quite plausible, especially given the news that Saudi aircraft are deploying into Incirlik not far from Iskenderun. A Sunni juggernaut/Turkish Army link up in SW Turkey would provide Turkish fire and logistical support to the Sunni juggernaut.
What role would the US play in a scheme like that? Unknown.
Would the Turks/Sunni juggernaut actually invade Syria and risk war with Russia? Unknown. pl
On the occasion of the implementation of the nuclear deal with Iran it is important to remember a few things:
- It remains unclear as to whether the Iranians have had an active nuclear weapon development program since 2003 when they are thought by many to have ended it when the putative Iraqi threat was removed by the US.
- The 9/11 attackers/plotters/funders were all Sunni.
This is a a list of Muslim Groups presently actively hostile to the US:
- The Islamic State (Sunni)
- The Al-Nusra Front (Sunni)
- Al-Qa'ida Central (Sunni)
- Al-Qa'ida in Magheb (Sunni)
- Al-Qa'ida in Arabian Peninsula (Sunni)
- Boku Haram (Sunni)
- Al-Shabbab (Sunni)
- Khorassan Group (Sunni)
- Society of the Muslim Brothers (Sunni)
- Sayyaf Group in the Philippines (Sunni)
- Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan (Sunni)
- Lashgar i Taiba (Sunni)
- Jemaa Islamiya (Sunni)
- Houthis (Shia)
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Shia forces bombed US and French facilities in Beirut in 1983. That was 33 years ago. Shia militias fought the US COIN campaign in Iraq. So did Sunni forces. Shia forces are now fighting IS in Iraq and Sunni jihadis in Syria.
So, why is it that US media consistently describe the Shia as a malevolent force throughout the Islamic World?
Could it be because Israel/AIPAC and the Gulf Arabs want Iran contained as a geopolitical rival in the region? Could it be that? pl
"At least 130, mostly wounded, rebel fighters left the town of Zabadani for the nearby Lebanese border at the same time as 350 fighters and civilians from pro-government besieged Shi'ite towns in northwestern Syria headed for the Turkish border.
Under the deal, the fighters from the Islamist Ahrar al-Sham group and other local Syrian rebel factions holed up in Zabadani for months have been promised safe passage to Beirut airport and then on to Turkey.
At the same time, families and fighters in two besieged Shi'ite towns in the mainly rebel-held northwestern province of Idlib were heading to Turkey and were then due to fly to Beirut.
Relief workers and rebel fighters helped carry several young men in wheelchairs onto ambulances in a square in Zabadani, one witness told Reuters.
The once popular resort city, northwest of the capital Damascus, was one of the rebels' last strongholds along the border. Before the 2011 outbreak of the Syrian conflict it had also formed part of a supply route for weapons sent by Syria to the Lebanese Shi'ite militant group Hezbollah.
Much of the town was devastated in a major offensive launched in July against the insurgents by the Syrian army and its Hezbollah allies." Reuters
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Zabadani was truly the last bastion of the rebels/jihadis in the Anti-Lebanon. You can be sure that the Lebanese will make sure these people are all flown to Turkey where their friend Sultan Tayyip will feed them back into the coming meat grinder in Idlib Province.
That kesselschlacht battle is being carefully prepared with a new Syrian force being formed up just for the task. This main effort will be heavily supported with Russian artillery of various kinds and a large contribution from Russian air.
The two Shia towns Kafiriya and Fou'a are in the upper right part of the image next to the M5 corridor. I don't know if they are 12er or 7er Shia. I learned recently that there are 7ers (Ismaili) in this part of Syria. These are actual Shia as opposed to Alawis. They will go around through Turkey into government held Syria through Beirut International Airport.
The Borgist press is, of course, trying to make Iraqi government control of Ramadi sound like a great victory. In fact IS withdrew from the place leaving behind 300-500 men to make life difficult. It took 10,000 men and a mass of air power to overcome this minimal resistance. Let's see what happens next pl
So, the Iranians think Assad should stand for election in a new government?
I agree.
there should be an election under UN supervision that includes all Syrians; those in Syrian government controlled land, those in rebel controlled land, those in exile in, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Europe, Canada and in Europe. They should all vote. All should also be allowed to stand for election and that should include Bashar Assad.
The argument is made by the Borg (led by or leading Obama) that Assad has lost his "legitimacy" (always a tricky thing to establish). If "legitimacy" in this case means the consent of the governed, well, pilgrims, a fully supervised election, would establish whether or not that is true.
Assad won an election like that a few years back, so...
Now, I fully understand that parties perhaps unknown will try to rig the election using the UN as an instrument. Well, lets see them do that while we all watch. Let's see it...
IS and the other jihadi groups are not interested in the consent of the governed, but the US supposedly is so interested.
I spent the last two days at a meeting which was essentially a conclave of social scientists, (IR & Poly Sci people) huddled together with some fairly senior technocrats to ponder the world's ills. More than that I cannot say about the proceedings. But... One or two things I can say, I think...
The academics were not very creative in their thinking. The "thinking" consisted mainly of projecting current situations straight forward into the future in a rather pathetic belief that what is will continue to be. This "wisdom" was delivered with the pomposity and haughtiness so typical of senior academics.
1- There were very few of those deep academic thinkers who had any military knowledge at all but they felt free to prognosticate about the relative capabilities of the worlds armed forces.
2 - They were pretty much all wedded to the idea that if the US government through its media co-optees says that country X is a friend and ally of the US or if the US government and its media flunkies say that country Y is an enemy, then it must be so and those "truthy" notions must be clung to. Therefore, it was believed and said constantly that Saudi Arabia is a great and powerful country and a faithful friend of the US. Haarumph! Much the same thing was said of Turkey! Haarumph!
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Actual news:
- Russia has decided that IS should be made an organization of former jihadis (dead jihadis) This final decision seems to have been made in the aftermath of the conclusion by the Russians that, yes, it was a bomb on the Metrojet and, yes, it was an IS bomb.
- That being the case the Russians have stepped up their air sortie rate to over 200/day and are using strategic long range heavy bombers flying from Russian air fields as part of the mix. Prominent among the targets are places in and around Raqqa, Syria. The US sortie rate is now typically less than 20/day as compared to 1100/day during Desert Storm.
- The French are seeking an effective cooperation against IS between them, Russia and the US. The "long pole in the tent" blocking such an arrangement is the continuing insistence of Obama and the Harpies that the Russians must agree to Assad's departure as a pre-condition for cooperation. At Antalya and Vienna (?) both Putin and Lavrov have told Obama that he and the girls are not going to get that.
- Given the level of Obama's pathological narcissism this denial of his godhood is probably responsible for his recent public peevishness. pl
Senator Lindsey Graham is living proof that the citizens of South Carolina are a lot more tolerant than they are generally thought to be by folks from the Deep North. More than that I will abstain from saying.
Lindsey Graham was on "Morning Joe" today.
It is true that Graham comes from humble circumstances. He and Boehner share the distinction of having worked in their respective fathers' saloons. More power to them! It used to be a cultural trait in Euro-Americans that whatever your economic level of upbringing it was thought to be a good thing that you should learn to do hard manual labor as a youth and then you went to college, maybe. I will not be self-referential but I fully understand the idea and approve of it. Some Europeans have explained to me their revulsion at the thought of that experience. Ah, well...
Graham is often described as the only presidential campaign candidate for 2016 who has any military service experience. Well, yes, Trump was at NY Military Academy, a private prep school at Yonkers, and he, Trump, says he is the most "militaristic" of all the candidates. One wonders if he understands the word. Tojo was a militarist. Mussolini was a militarist. Militarists are politicians with an inclination to rely on armed force to follow aggressive and usually nationalist objectives.
Graham served seven years as an air force lawyer, nearly all of it in Germany at the former Rhein-Main air base at Frankfurt where he tried cases involving misbehavior on the part of locally assigned USAF people. He then returned to civilian life and was an Air National Guard and later USAF reserve lawyer for a long time while he pursued his civilian life as a lawyer and politician. Well, pilgrims, the Grunts, Tankers, Combat Aviators and SF men here will have a hard time taking Graham seriously as a "military man." Sorry, counselors. but that is how I see it. Sooo, IMO Graham has no military knowledge or experience that should be taken seriously, but he has a lot to say, none of it based on much of anything but briefings received in his senate offices and in Israel. He evidently knew nothing of the ME until Joe Lieberman arranged for him and McCain the Furious to be fully hasbarized in the Land God gave to the Chosen People "How do we know? The Bible tells us so!" IMO most of the Izrul devotees are merely cynical politicians courting moneyed Zionists, and Bible thumpers, but IMO Graham actually believes his own crap.
Some of his opinions:
- The US should generate however large a ground force in Syria and Iraq that would prove necessary to "destroy" IS. When asked how many Americans would be in that force he mumbles about 10,000 (if I heard him right). Where would the others come from? He says from the Turks and the Arabs. Well, Turkey under Erdogan is an undeclared ally of IS. Erdogan has just regained a parliamentary majority and has declared his intention to seek a new constitution for Turkey, presumably something grand will be in it for him. The EU has stated that such a power grab will be a bar to Turkey entering Europe but I doubt if he cares. The "Arabs?" Saudi Arabia and Qatar are main supporters of jihadism. Jordan has its hands full. Lebanon has no military power worth talking about. Iraq? Well, we should know the answer to that by now. So, what is he talking about?
- Islam. Graham goes on about the need to fight IS because they want us to "bow down to Islam." Half the time he does not differentiate between the takfiri wahhabi jihadis and all other Muslims. He clearly sees the Muslim menace in ways that his Israeli friends must relish.
- Iran. The Israelis always see their enemies. They do not see them clearly but they do see them. For a long time they saw Iraq as their greatest enemy. We destroyed Iraq for them. Now their bête noire is Iran, an enemy so fearful that nothing, nothing is to be shrunk from in destroying this enemy. Their goal is to use "useful idiots" like Graham and his friend McCain "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!" to lever the Americans into destroying Iran. Unfortunately for the concept the American people want neither McCain nor Graham.
- Combat Situation. R+6 forces have largely defeated SNC (Unreconstructed FSA Unicorns + mostly non IS jihadi Sunnis who have not fled to Turkey and thence to Europe).
In northern Syria. The main line of contact with SNC forces is north and east of Aleppo.
SNC held parts of Aleppo are besieged by R+6. The Syrian government has called on FSA unicorns in Aleppo to surrender under an offer of amnesty and integration into R+6 forces in their own units under government supervision. There have been a lot of defections from FSA in the context of an ever shrinking perimeter in Aleppo. Russian advisers have done an adequate job of teaching rattenkrieg combat in cities techniques to their allies. There have been several building collapses along the line of contact within the city as R+6 "mouseholes" its way through walls connecting adjoining buildings to reach streets that can be covered by fire from within. The Syrian government has called on the SNC to allow civilians to leave the city. The government has also appealed to migrants now in Turkey and in Europe to return to pacified areas after screening for jihadi allegiance.
R+6 forces have moved to positions close to the Turkish border. The border is not sealed everywhere but enough Russian and SAG air (both fixed wing and helicopter) as well as artillery is positioned on re-captured airfields and other fire bases to make border crossings to and from Turkey extremely difficult. Pockets of SNC forces remain throughout the north. These are being attacked as forces are available.
In the Damascus/Homs/Hama/Idlib zone (Phase Line Blue) R+6 forces (including "rallied" FSA unicorns) have pushed to the east of the M-5 main north/south highway but have not gone more than 20 kilometers east of the road. A Russian Motorized Rifle Regiment is still present with the R+6 forces east of Phase Line Blue.
RuAf strikes have continued south of Damascus without interference from Israel. R+6 allies are slowly pushing SNC forces south and SW toward the Golan and Jordan. A lack of Jordanian support for SNC forces is causing problems for the SNC in this sector. Fighting in the SE Damascus suburbs and south of Damascus appears to be an economy of force play by R+6 so that greater force can be massed in the north and center of the country.
YPG forces and their US Green Beret advisers were driven back east across the Euphrates River by Turkish air strikes. In response Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles were positioned in fire bases and on defended airfields north and NE of Aleppo where they cover the YPG Kurds. As a result Turkish air attacks on the YPG Kurds have ended.
- Turkey has demanded that the US stop flying CAS for the YPG Kurds or face denial of the use of Incirlik air base.
- The Russians have obtained contract charter sea lift from China and Cuba. Ships hired have begun delivering tonnage to Latakia and Tartous from Black Sea ports as well as Chinese and Iranian manufactured materiel. Many of the contracts for sea lift have been done on a credit basis in return for promises of development and business advantages in Syria and Iraq post war. The Russian build-up in Syria appears to continue.
- Russia has begun delivering materiel to their Hizbullah allies at border crossing points on the Mediterranean border north of Tripoli, Lebanon. RuAF air superiority fighters are patrolling the border area and S-400 missiles are at Tartous. IAF fighters have attempted to intercept shipments south of the Lebanese border.
- Israeli/Palestinian violence in the West Bank continues to grow.
- In Riyadh a Saud family majlis ash-shura (consultative assembly) is in session to consider the adequacy of the country's present governance. There are many calls for King Salman's abdication.
- In Iraq IS still holds most of Anbar Province including Ramadi.
- Negotiations seeking an end to the war continue in Vienna.
Requirement: Forecast developments in this scenario from 2 June, 2016 to 1 November, 2016 (Game Time). Comments on Turn 3 will close Tuesday night, 10, November, 2015 (Real Time) pl
Russian forces warned Israel over IAF flights in Russian controlled airspace near the Syrian–Lebanese border area after Israeli jets were detected nearby, according to a report Friday in the Lebanese media outlet As Safir.
“Russian aircraft immediately blocked the Israeli jets' path while they flew above the Akkar region in northern Lebanon. The Russians immediately sent a clear warning to the Israelis that entering Syrian airspace would be a pretext for opening fire," the source said.
The report comes a mere day after Russia announced that it had established a "hotline" with Israel in order to coordinate aerial activity over Lebanon and Syria.
As Safir quoted Lebanese diplomatic officials who were "in the know," as saying that the warning was issued after Russian radar identified Israeli aircraft approaching Russian-controlled airspace two weeks ago.
The same [Lebanese] official claimed that the Lebanese army had noticed a decline in Israeli over flights since the warning was issued on the first of October, but clarified that flights in the area remained ongoing. (YNET News)
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Yes, there’s a new sheriff in town and the Likudniks must be shivering in their boots. Things will never be the same again. I am glad to see that the IAF had the good sense to consent to a “hotline” with Russia to coordinate air activity over Syria and Lebanon. This incident sent the message that coordination means the IAF best stay the hell out of Russia’s way. Netanyahu needs to get that through his thick skull PDQ.
"In breaking with the White House by calling for military action to protect civilians in Syria, former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton is siding with at least two of her Republican opponents in the 2016 presidential election.
Clinton adopted the opposite position from the White House she used to serve on Thursday by advocating additional international air power to protect civilians in the multi-front war.
“I personally would be advocating now for a no-fly zone and humanitarian corridors to try to stop the carnage on the ground and from the air,” the Democratic presidential hopeful said in an interview.
That puts her in the same camp as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and fellow Republican Ohio Gov. John Kasich." Washpost
All of these clowns want the no-fly zone to apply to the Russians.
Yes, pilgrims, the time has come to search the internet for old movies from the days of my youth:
- "Fail Safe"
- "On the Beach"
- Doctor Strangelove"
In the bad old days of overhanging threats of thermonuclear war with the USSR, there sprang up a whole genre of end of everything themed films and books intended to illustrate for the ignorant how the world might end in flashes of searing light and roaring blast.
Guess what! The Russian Federation has much the same destructive capacity as did the USSR.
For this reason it is unthinkable that the US and Russia should fight each other, ever, ever, ever.
Nevertheless, Clinton, Fiorina, Bush and now Kasich have all endorsed the idea of forbidding Russian use of air space and operations in Syria and a willingness to fight the Russians to enforce such a thing.
Does it require a great intellect to understand that engagements between two thermonuclear powers are likely to lead to escalation ending in a nuclear exchange?
As Buck Turgidson said in Stangelove "I guarantee not more than 15 or 20 million dead (on our side)."
Folks, there is nothing in Syria worth the risk of nuclear war. pl
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"... in recent months, the Israeli government and its American neoconservative allies have been floating trial balloons regarding whether Al Qaeda could be repackaged as Sunni "moderates" and become a de facto U.S. ally in achieving a "regime change" in Syria, ousting President Bashar al-Assad who has been near the top of the Israeli/neocon hit list for years.
A key neocon propaganda theme has been to spin the conspiracy theory that Assad and the Islamic State are somehow in cahoots and thus Al Qaeda represents the lesser evil. Though there is no evidence to support this conspiracy theory, it was even raised by Charlie Rose in his "60 Minutes" interview last Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The reality is that the Islamic State and Al Qaeda have both been leading the fight to destroy the secular Assad government, which has fought back against both groups.
And, if these two leading terror groups saw a chance to raise their black flags over Damascus, they might well mend their tactical rifts. They would have much to gain by overthrowing Assad's regime, which is the principal protector of Syria's Christians, Alawites, Shiites and other "heretics."" Russian Peacekeeper
Both Israel and the Saudis have been "gunning" for the Syrian government for a long time, the Israelis because they are focused on Syria as Hizbullah's ally and the Saudis as part of their long term project (mashrou') to re-establish Sunni, Wahhabi rule in the Levant (Syria and Lebanon). pl
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"If Israel respects other players’ red lines, it will only retain a small area near Damascus and near the Lebanese border if it plans to block weapons smuggling to Hezbollah. Haaretz
Yup. How sad that would be (irony alert) There are now reports that a couple of Israeli F-15s were run out of Syrian air space yesterday by the Russian air force. It would be typical of Bibi that after having been warned off by Putin he wants to test the limits. He said he would not accept limits to the grandeur and power of Israel. pl
- The drivellers on the tube this AM insist that Obama should have pulled the trigger on punitive air attacks against Syria over the putative use of Sarin gas. Propaganda and IO are wonderful things. Any sort of "reality" can be generated with good "theming" and enough repetition. Think back pilgrim seekers for truth. The US intelligence community refused to issue a paper affirming that the Syrian government had actually done this. Faute de mieux the politicos of the Obama Administration issued their own paper asserting that the Syrian government had done this thing. There was no real evidence, just assertions. Now this "fact" asserting Syrian government use of gas against civilians is constantly cited by people like the savage woman Nicolle Wallace as evidence of the total culpability of Syria, No! I take that back. She is more interested in scoring points against Obama than anything else.
- John Kerry appeared on Morning Joe today to make various implausible claims:
* Bashar Assad (the man, not the Syrian government) is the essential problem in Syria. According to Kerry, if Assad chose to leave Syria the war would quickly end in a cease fire. For the sake of discussion let us assume that in the absence of Bashar Assad, whatever truly non-Kurdish oppositionists there be would enter into a cease fire. Would IS enter a cease fire? Would the Nusra Front do that as well? The answer is a qualified NO! They, like the Blues Brothers, (Universal Pictures -1980) are "on a mission from God" or at least their vision of God, and their God does not entertain cease fires with those who oppose the vision of his kingdom (varied) that he has given them. Short answer - the jihadis will not enter into a cease fire unless it sets them up for a final push to the Kingdom of Heaven.
* According to Kerry, Sunni Muslims will not accept Assad as president of Syria because he represents a religious minority (Alawis) and is a cruel man. Meanwhile, next door in Iraq the US is courting Sunni Arabs and seeking to persuade them to fight their fellow Sunnis in IS under command of a government in Baghdad that we brought into being. This government is run by and for the interest of Shia Arabs and has a record under several prime ministers of unlimited exclusion of and cruelty toward Sunni Arabs as well as double dealing and treachery toward Sunni Kurds. This whole line of "thought" is nonsense. Baathi Syria always had a large number of Sunnis in its structure and business world. Mustafa Tlas, the former Defense Minister and General Hikmat Shihabi the long time commander of the military are good examples. They were both Sunni Arabs and as I wrote recently there are many, many Sunni Arabs in the Syrian Arab Army. What Kerry is really saying IMO is that the Saudis, Israelis and Erdogan want Bashar Assad gone.
* Inherent in Kerry and Obama's pronouncements is an attitude that reflects the belief that the United States is the as yet unnamed World Empire of the Good and that the R2P vision of a world ruled by benevolent believers in social evolution and revolution is emerging. For people who hold such beliefs, resistance is not only futile (history is on their side - irony alert) but such resistance to the civilizing mission of the US is also evil and prima facie evidence of disordered thought. Therefore, it is clear (more irony) that such resistance is to be overcome and not accepted lest other potential resistors should take heart. Russia's resistance to the un-divine will of the emerging world order has already encouraged the likes of David Cameron to express doubt in the imperial ukase concerning Syria.
What to do?- I was asked today to state what I think should be done:
* Accept the truth that we destroyed the Iraqi state and from that act of vandalism all present chaos in that country derives.
* Don't do it again in Syria.
* Stop saying that no "Assad cronies" can be in the government or head the government. They ARE the government. Assad himself is dispensable, but not the government of Syria.
* Act like Russia, China and Iran matter as something other than rivals and adversaries.
* Ignore Erdogan's Turkey. It is a manifestation of the jihadi enemy. They will deny us use of Incirlik and the other bases? Fine, that would clarify the situation. Move onto Syrian bases or the big, unused NATO built base north of Tripoli in Lebanon.
* Ignore Saudi Arabia's wishes with regard to Syria. They are jihadi supporters.
* Ignore Israel's wishes with regard to Syria. Natanyahu's government is pursuing a mistaken and short sighted policy of eliminating coherent government in Syria for the purpose of crippling their Lebanese Hizbullah adversaries whom they think exist because of Syrian and Iranian help. The Likud's imagined interest in Syria is not America's interest.
* Accept Russian and Iranian co-belligerence in the war against the jihadis, ALL JIHADIS.
* Fully coordinate operations, intelligence analysis sharing and logistics with the co-belligerent partners.
I have decided to voice my opinions on what the situations are in re the MENA area both abroad and in the US concerning Syria and Turkey. More tomorrow on Iraq. These are simply my opinions, feel free to disregard them and come up with your own:
- Petraeus wants John Allen's wretched job? Give it him. As I understand what happened, Allen found it to be impossible to argue successfully with the WH's collection of "those whose brains were destroyed in the process of obtaining a Ph.D in poly sci " led by the country's community organizer in chief. Let us see if Petraeus will do better. IMO Petraeus is a phony of the sort that David Hackworth used to describe as a "perfumed prince," in my words, a Byzantine courtier type whose fame was generated in a largely self orchestrated media campaign. Let us see if this "Great Captain" can unravel this skein of wormlike threads that he helped create. Perhaps Broadway Joe Scarborough will turn and burn with him?
- Turkey. I am told that Saudi Arabia is pouring money into the coming Turkish parliamentary election. The goal is to give Erdogan a big enough majority to let him abolish the essence of the secular Kemalist constitution of the Turkish Republic and to make the country a sharia law state with minorities reduced to serfdom or dhimmitude. Hopefully this move might trigger a popular revolt of those not desiring to live in the Middle Ages.
- Turkey. There is an inherent conflict in Erdogan's desire to destroy all Kurdish identity and resistance and the US desire to have the various Kurdish groups as allies against IS. This is certain to cause a split when fully realized by both sides.
- As suggested elsewhere on SST there is agreement between Iran and Russia that the Hizbullah/Iranian forces will concentrate in the area west and SW of Damascus to defend Lebanon while Hizbullah also concentrates on force development in the aftermath of their adventures in Syria.
- IMO the US and Russia will work out mechanisms of operational cooperation under the guise of "de-confliction" of operations. This process will be driven by sheer necessity and not by wisdom in Washington or at CENTCOM.
- Israel will adopt a posture of watchful waiting in re Syria. They have been "warned off" by the bear and no longer have any real freedom of action in Syria. Putin pleasantly told Bibi that any decision of significance in re Syria will henceforth be referred to Moscow.
- Russia will seek to strengthen the Syrian government's hand(Assad's "regime" in Broadway Joe's phrase) so that it can be a major participant in an anti-jihadi coalition leading to a compromise peace. Assad's personal fate is of little importance to Russia so long as he is not seen across the world as having been betrayed by Russia as Mubarak was betrayed by the US. To that end they will give him and his family sanctuary in Russia.
- Russia will continue to reinforce and develop forces and infrastructure in Syria for its expeditionary force. It will use these forces to implement the strategy described above. pl
"A spokesman for Ahrar Al Sham said that the organization accepted to negotiate. The talks started in the beginning of August in Istanbul and ended with a deal on a short cease fire without solving the problem. “The Iranians have gone mad. They want us to give up Zabadani, move its people out, and in return they will move all the inhabitants of Kafraya and Foua’a and relocate them in a site close to the Lebanese borders or in the Rif of Hama. They warned us and the Turks that if we capture the two villages, they will move the Shia inhabitants out anyway but will then reduce the two villages to rubbles. They will level them to earth. We refused the offer”, the Spokesman said.
The Iranians have not gone mad. They are simply implementing what we described previously as “Plan B”. It is obvious that the trilateral alliance has a clear concept of how Syria will be partitioned. Zabadani will be the spring board to clear the southern Damascus belt of either opposition presence or Sunni presence or both if necessary. The idea is to secure Qalamoun and Damascus, re-enforce defenses around the controlled stretch of territory that includes Hama and then see what will come in the diplomatic channels.
While it is normal that the joint Assad-Hezbollah-IRGC command has a clear division of labor that serves one clear plan, it is not obvious that the Syrian opposition has a unified parallel plan, either to abort the trilateral partitioning intentions or to wage a meaningful counter-attack." Middle East Briefing
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It is clear now that the scheming and maneuvering of the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have finally weakened the Syrian government enough to being about its downfall in the not too far distant future.
The impending emergence of Iran from international isolation reduces the willingness of the Iranian government to endlessly, and expensively continue to support the Syrian government. The IRGC may wish to fight on forever in Syria but the government and the Ayatollahs probably do not.
The Arab author of this piece is hostile to the Syrian government but IMO he has it right when he speculates that what he calls the "trilateral alliance" (Syrian Army/IRGC/Hizbullah) now see their best chance of salvaging something from the coming "train wreck" as being a demography based partition agreed to at some negotiating table. Such a partition will require considerable ethno-sectarian cleansing and transfer of populations from areas to areas, something like the Ataturk/Venizelos transfer of the 20s.
IMO the jihadis of various colorations will dominate post Assad Syria. They will struggle over the extent of their territories and the Alawis, Shia and Christians will become residents of a besieged coastal enclave or reduced to dhimmitude under the jihadis.
Will the "trilateral alliance" be able to hold Damascus very long after Assad departs? I doubt it, and then the butchery will really begin. pl
"The basic fundamentals of the Doha talks were: 1) A rejection of the scenario of partitioning Syria, as it will create more instability and provides no end to the war, 2) Adopting the parameters laid by the UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura and by Moscow, 3) Working on an unofficial demarcation of areas of influence, 4) Negotiating, separately first, with Arab Sunni players and the Iranians to determine the final status of these areas of influence, a la Taif agreement, while leaving the door opened to direct talks later on, 5) General elections in Syria with a prior understanding that Assad will not run and that the new government will include representatives of all components of the Syrian society.
(Taif was the deal that ended the Lebanese civil war. It was based on an unofficial partitioning of the country to areas of “natural” sectarian and political control combined under a sectarian dosed central government)" MEB
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The author recognizes that this "solution" is partition in all but name as it was in Taif1 -Lebanon.
That agreement was negotiated over the heads of the Lebanese combatant factions and Hafez al-Assad by the triad of; Philip Habib, Dick Murphy and Rafik Hariri. Habib was then Reagan's world-wide diplomatic mister fix-it. He had been raised in New York City in a Jewish neighborhood although he was the child of Lebanese Maronite immigrants. He spoke Yiddish and supposedly had a magic touch with those who spoke the language (and their overseas kin). Rafik Hariri was the darling of the Sudeiri faction of the Saudi Royal family. He had begun life as a poor boy in Sidon, Lebanon, had emigrated to SA, had become a Wahhabi and made vast amounts of money constructing public buildings for the royals. Rumors abound as to what the connection was but I will not list them here. He was a Saudi "citizen" at the time of negotiations. And then there was Richard W. Murphy, the US ambassador in Saudi Arabia. I worked for him there at the time. He and Habib were busy most of the time traveling around the ME in Hariri's plane trying to unravel various Gordian Knots. They schmoozed their way to what looked like a peace deal between the Lebanese (Gemayel) government of the day and Israel. That fell apart when Hafez al-Assad learned of it. The Lebanese were desperate for an end to their self immolation and the Habib/Murphy/Hariri flying carpet managed to arrange a meeting at Taif in Saudi Arabia. Interestingly, this was held in one of the royal guest houses that Hariri had built. There, the Saudis and the Americans arranged a deal that effectively partitioned Lebanon while preserving the image of a single sovereign country. The deal did not require Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. Hafez-al-Assad gave his assent with the understanding that Lebanon would be within Syria's sphere of influence. The Saudis required that Hariri resume his former Lebanese citizenship and be appointed prime minister by the rump parliament that theoretically still existed in Beirut or what was left of Beirut. The US assented and someone informed the Lebanese of the agreement. Lebanon has been a mess ever since with massive sectarian and political tensions just below the surface of daily life. Lebanon continues to be treated as a regional pawn by all those interested. Perhaps the Lebanese deserve this for allowing themselves to be abused and participating in the abuse. Perhaps Lebanon, a colonial construct, should never have been a single country. It was, after all, merely a French conceit. For this deal to be made required not only the total exhaustion of the Lebanese fighting factions but also the acquiescence of all external players.
The Saudis have now been busy buying off Sisi. That should work in this context. Turkey will be enthusiastically "on board" under present management. Are Russia, Hizbullah and Iran likely to accept defeat at the hands of; the Children's Crusade, the Izzies, and the 'Desert Irish?"
I doubt this is possible considering the mischief the US is fostering against Russia, the general attitude towards Iran of The Borg, and American insistence at Israel's direction that Hizbullah are merely terrorists. pl
"Some military analysts have expressed skepticism that the revolutionary defense shield will hold up under a sustained assault from a wide variety of more lethal missiles attacking from different points of the compass and maintain the approximately 90 percent interception rate claimed by the IDF during last year’s Gaza conflict." Foxnews
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"Major General Eshel could have alleged: "That if we only had another 20 I.D batteries, we could protect the northern border.” But he didn't. Why? Because he knows it is just a delusion. He further added a grim insight to the picture, indicating that possibly the I.D success could be attributed to the small weight of the warheads (18 kg. N.F) it had to tackle." IDTS
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"An unpublished 2013 report[118] by Theodore Postol, Mordechai Shefer and another colleague argued that the official effectiveness figures for Iron Dome during Operation Pillar of Defense were incorrect.[119] Although Postol had earlier lauded Iron Dome's effectiveness,[120] after studying YouTube videos of the warhead interceptions as well as police reports and other data, he argued that "Iron Dome’s intercept rate, defined as destruction of the rocket's warhead was relatively low, perhaps as low as 5%, but could well be lower."[119][121] Postol reached this conclusion mainly from an analysis of non-official footage of interceptions taken by civilians and published on YouTube." WIKI on Iron Dome
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"The Pentagon believes that Hezbollah has a rocket arsenal of around 30,000.[citation needed] According to IranTracker, estimates of Hezbollah's overall missile arsenal range from 40,000 to 50,000 large-caliber munitions of all kinds. Israel estimates that Hezbollah has about 40,000, most of them shorter-range rockets and mortar shells. Katyusha rockets" Wiki on Hizbullah Armed Force
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Hizbullah has enough rocket and guided missile weapons to devastate Israel as far south as Tel Aviv. The Iron Dome system is not as effective as Israeli internal and external propaganda said it was during the Gaza War of 2014. The Israelis know that Iron Dome would be overwhelmed by a massed Hizbullah attack and that Iron Dome would easily be swamped by the sheer number of incoming flying objects.
Israel does not possess the means to block such an attack. Iron Dome is very expensive and the number of system required for an effective defense is prohibitive.
In 2006 the IDF was shocked by the quality of ground resistance provided by Hizbullah militias in carefully prepared positions, replete with tank traps, canalization by obstacles of avenues of approach, lots of reinforced concrete, air conditioning in bunkers, buried cable communications, body armor, night vision equipment and the like. The IDF ground forces do not want to repeat the experience.
The Israeli Air Force has little ability to find the launchers or caches of munitions possessed by Hizbullah. The IAF's most likely course of action in the context of another Israel/Hizbullah war will be to ravage the whole country in the hope of intimidating Hizbullah into a de facto cease fire.
Once again, Israel has no effective counter to an all out Hizbullah rocket and missile attack. pl
A reminder: We solved nothing in Iraq. We broke the fragile British construct that was the Kingdom of Iraq. We own it but cannot fix it. What will result ultimately will be; a Shia Iraq from Baghdad south to the Gulf, a Kurdish place in the mountains, and IS stretching across Syria and Iraq. Are SA, Lebanon and Jordan not next on the Islamist agenda.
Former RAF Habbaniya was the center of the balance of British presence in Iraq. Look at the pictures of chapels, cemeteries, and swimming pools for the British troops. Do the pictures not give you a frisson of deja vue? If not, you are dull.
Habbaniya is the place we will defend and try to make Sunni tribesmen and Shia cowards into fighters? The omens for this are not good.
Wherever it is that we will try to do this, we should fortify and defend this place heavily. otherwise, the IS will see it as a place to bring us to battle, either there or along the logistic trail to the east. pl
The US-Iranian nuclear deal has many enemies, most notably Israel (and their volunteer/hiree US proxies) and the Saudis, who are getting bonkers about the prospect of a shifting regional balance of power in which Iran emerges as a regional power again. Both are lashing out angrily, on several fronts:
Israeli Theatre
♦ The DC Front
Israel has mobilised its surrogates and its more deep pocketed partisans have shifted campaign contributions to Republicans in order to punish the Democrats and disincentivise them from supporting Obama's rapprochement with Iran, while at the same time making it a partisan issue, leveraging the US partisan divide in Israel's favour.
Since dispelling any doubt about a possible military use of Irans nuclear program is a precondition for lifting the sanctions, perpetuating doubt is a way to perpetuate the sanctions.
"Robert Kelley: The IAEA is receiving external information, primarily from intelligence agencies in Israel and the United States. And they have written up ... a whole series of allegations that Iran had a nuclear weapons program prior to 2004 and it may have continued past that point. ... All those things are thrown out as accusations with very little proof or information where the allegations came from.
DW: How credible are those accusations in your eyes?
Robert Kelley: Many of these accusations I find to be quite incredible. ...
DW: ... Could those allegations be part of an effort to derail the nuclear deal with Iran?
Robert Kelley: Absolutely yes! It is a poison pill that is included in the deal. People know that the IAEA is going to be unable to reach a decision on these issues because it is beyond their capability. So when the IAEA needs to be satisfied before the sanctions are lifted, history tells you: This will not happen."
That is the very point, the idea being having the IAEA inspect ad nauseam and keep it that way by periodically throwing in new accusations (perhaps a Laptop of Doom II), which then too, must to be investigated ad nauseam to dispel any lingering doubt etc. pp. and keep the dance going, with the added hope that Iran at some point, nauseated, quits.
♦ The Lebanon and Syria fronts
All is quiet on the northern front, for now, with the exception of occasional Israeli attacks against against targets of opportunity in Lebanon and Syria.
The Israelis are itching for revenge for their embarassing defeat in 2006, to 'restore deterrence', which, miraculously, wasn't restored by bombing Gaza the last time, and the time before, and the time before that or by the sack of Southern Lebanon and Beirut from the air in 2006. Puzzling!
Suggestion: Maybe the whole idea of periodically 'restoring deterrence' is BS? After all, for that periodic restoration to be necessary, deterrence needs to get lost all the time. How come? Perhaps there is something fundamentally flawed in the approach.
In the Israeli view, the reason for the dysfunction is that Israel has not achieved a decisive victory. They seek a Siegfrieden (i.e. winner-take-all), not the status quo or, it's a bit naive, I know, peace.
Israel sees Hezbollah engaged in Syria fighting with Assad against the headchopping Jihadis and may conclude that Hezbollah is overstretched. They also probably estimate that that constitutes a weakness and that if they attack Hezbollah now, they'll have an easier time than in 2006, perhaps even be supported by Jihadis from Syria, catching Hezbollah in a two front war. Given that Saudi Arabia and Israel form a de-facto alliance against Iran, the Saudis would probably be delighted to see Jihadis join that fight. Already, there are Jihadi incursions into Lebanon.
Beyond that, Israel would pursue several objectives in a war in Lebanon - harming Hezbollah and getting even for 2006, helping the Syrian Jihadis against Assad (Israel already treats wounded Jabat al-Nusra fighters from Syria [to wit: Al-Qaeda, swore allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, re-branded]) and perhaps achieve his fall, and aggravate Iran so much as to scuttle the deal.
To be able to aim at all that in one go is for Israel a strong incentive for war in Lebanon. For the Netanyahoo - what's not to like?
"There are signs Israel may be at war again this summer. This time, not with Hamas in Gaza but with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Such a war may be the result not only of spillover from the Syrian war or ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah tensions. The deciding factor may be an Israeli calculation that war will shift momentum in the U.S. Congress decisively against the pending nuclear deal with Iran -- a deal that critics say will increase Iran's maneuverability in the region, including its support for Hezbollah."
They are probably right. I think that Israel, led by the Netanyahoo, is absolutely capable of such a violent tantrum, which would likely plunge Lebanon into a second civil war (made worse with Jihadis joining the fray from Syria ... so many more apostates to behead). In doing so, Bibi would get a whole lot more killed than just the Iran deal.
One would suppose that what the region right now needs is stability, but the Israelis appear to not think so. Pat's suggestion that Israel's goal appears to be the pauperisation of its neighbours seems disturbingly accurate.
Indeed, with Syria ruled by Jihadis, the Israelis would probably in their inimical way claim that they now (finally) must annex the Golan, for security reasons - after all, in the Jihadis they 'don't have a partner for peace', and while at it, why not take the entire West-Bank too, for security reasons, as an indispensable buffer zone against the Jihadi threat (that they helped create, but why bother).
Saudi Theatre
The Saudis are right now at Peak Paranoid about all things Shia and have convinced themselves that Shia are under every stone, and that they must roll back what in their fertile imagination amounts to a global Shia threat- the Shia Crescend.
There is the Shia minority in Saudi-Arabia proper (~15%, probably under-reported, and treated as second class citizens and potential 5th columnists), there is Iran (~89% of the population being at least nominally Shia), there is Iraq or what's left of it (Shia make up ~70% of the population), there is Yemen (Shia there are ~45% of the population, and never mind they are 5ers), Syria (allied with Iran, and worse, ruled by also apostate Alawites, so, all the same) and even Lebanon (where Shia make up ~27% of the population, also probably under-reported).
I'd like to point out that the Shia live there for a very long time, so their presence shouldn't come as a surprise. And yet, to the Saudis the Shia, once empowered, are a threat, and are all surrogates of Tehran, hear each other think, and have no will or interests of their own.
Apparently to Saudi thinking a Shia is what a Jew was/is to a Nazi, and is being treated with Nurembergish laws, the occasional pogrom and regarded in fear of a Shia World Conspiracy. Given that Saudi attitudes about Shia as apostates and not much better than dogs are obviously informed by religious bigotry, this now officially extends to their foreign policy.
Saudi and Turkish support for Jihadi groups appears to bear fruit and there have been gains against the Syrian government by the almost completely foreign sponsored opposition.
Under the Nicaragua precedent the support of insurgents in other nations is a violation of national sovereignty and the mandate of non-interference in internal matters of the targeted country. That is so even when one invokes R2P as an extraordinary justification (i.e. legalising conduct otherwise illegal) to intervene anyway (which, notably, the Turks and Saudis don't do).
Turkey and Saudi Arabia are for all practical purposes at war with Syria and support opponents of the Syrian government with supply, intelligence and training in violation of international law. Washington, having been supportive of regime change and the overthrow of Assad from the onset, is more or less silent even as it observes with increasing unease the rise of the Jihadi elements that Turkish and Saudi support is empowering. Not that that slowed the Turks or Saudis down.
Musings
I observe that these days we're back to the Cabinet Wars of old (pre-1914), in which countries, after more or less thorough deliberation, decide in national cabinets to go to war, just as if it still was the prerogative of monarchs.
Another curious parallel is that Washington ever since Clinton has increasingly pursued a 'Politik der freien Hand' - emphasising 'Freedom of Action', in which 'all options' are always 'on the table' - much like Wilhelm II abandoning the system of alliances and restraints forged by Bismarck to protect Germany from disastrous two-front wars. It didn't serve Germany well.
Today's Cabinet Wars are being waged in violation of the prohibition of war and in violation of national sovereignty, as if war was still, or is again, a normal tool of statecraft. No more, but - who cares? In my impression it was primarily unbound US conduct and precedent since the Clinton years, much exacerbated by Bush 43 and his troupe, that has legitimated such behaviour by states, which had the predictable destabilising effect.
In a sense, I miss the old days in which nations at least had the courtesy to formally declare war. That was in many ways more honest, if just as dumb. O tempora, o mores!
The cat is out of the bag: last Saturday, a famous French radio-show aired a programme disclosing information about the existence of what is called the "Groupe Alpha". Although this is not the first time rumours have surface about the existence of this unit, the details that emerged now certainly make for an interesting read.
The last time France's intelligence services used "targeted assassinations" on a large scale was during the Algerian War for Independence (1954-1962). French SDECE (the predecessor to today's DGSE) hit between 200 and 300 targets during that period, either Algerian activists, arms dealers or even lawyers who had made common cause with the Algerian insurgents. Those killings were handled internally or sub-contracted to an informal proxy of French intelligence called "La main rouge".
Badge of "11e Régiment Parachutiste de Choc" - DGSE's elite action unit
After the Algerian War and until the mid-1980s, "targeted assassinations" became an exceptional task for DGSE or other branches of French intel, like the "11e Régiment Parachutiste de Choc" or the "Service Action", with the notable exception of Lebanon, where French agents killed the mastermind and operatives behind the assassination of French ambassador Louis Delamare in Beirut in the early 1980s. It is also rumoured that a certain car bomb explosion on a market in Damascus was staged by French agents or proxies around the same period.
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