Sic Semper Tyrannis

Macgregor got it part right on Carlson's show last night

Colonel (ret.) Douglas Macgregor was on Tucker Carlson's show last night.  He is a smart man.  Tucker is a smart man. Carlson's show is an outpost of sanity in a neocon run US foreign policy establishment (the Borg).  Carlson deserves the ratings he gets.  I hope those will insulate him from the trepidation that his honesty must inspire in the Murdoch brothers.  The rest of Foxnews is much like a clown car show with the clowns clamoring for the approbation of the White House in their eagerness for a neocon war of conquest in the ME.  Some people never learn.  the last 20 years of disaster in the face of Islamic resistance to Western cultural imperialism have taught them nothing.

Trump started his term as an empty headed business hustler eager to make deals wherever he could and who correctly did not see much of anything to be gained by fighting endlessly all over the Islamic World to impose Israel's 1% policy of eliminating all possible threats from the Muslims.

Trump offered Iran peace negotiations in his post Iran strike speech?  No.  He did not.  He once again offered them the opportunity to surrender to Israeli demands relayed to them by the US.

Now, he is transformed into just another neocon, in fact the neocon in chief.  His foreign policy team is run by neocons and bootlickers who fear Pompeo's scorn.  The Defense part of that team is dominated by the Pompous one and his West Point classmate Esper at DoD.  General Milley and the other present chiefs of staff are carefully chosen to eliminate the possibility of "push-back" from the military. I retract anything bad I ever said about Joe Dunford.  I wish he were still here.

Trump is following the neocon/Ziocon line now.  He evidently believes any silly thing they tell him.  I understand that he has said that Soleimani was engaged in beheading Christians.  Well, pilgrims, if you look below about three posts you  will see a video of Soleimani and al-Muhandis being mourned by Christian clergy and congregations in Aleppo.  Of course, you actually have to understand some Arabic to get that from the video.  These Christians mourn these men as being among those who came to fight the Sunni jihadis at Aleppo.

Macgregor rightly understands that there is no there, there for the USA in the Middle East and Central Asia.  He correctly understands that to try to sort out all the intra-regional ethnic and sectarian rivalries is a fool's errand.  He correctly advocates complete withdrawal from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as does Tulsi Gabbard who was on the same show.

What Macgregor got wrong is that he wants to remain engaged in; Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the GCC generally.  Well, Doug, there is no there, there either.  There is no Soviet threat.  The USA is a net oil and gas exporter.  The Iranians have enemies and quarrels with the Saudis and the Israelis, but, so what?  We are not Israelis.  Neither are we Saudis.

You want to stay engaged in Yemen?  the country is full of nasty little hill men who live to fight.  This is a Saudi problem.

Let all the crazed creatures of that part of the world fight it out.  along the way they will come to muddled partial solutions that will last until the next round of hostility begins.  Tant pis pour eux.  pl

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-iraq-iran-donald-trump-leave-war

Giddoutahere!

"Things keep heating up in Venezuela, with possible “military options” now being seriously discussed at the Pentagon. And of course you know what that means! That’s right, it means we can expect to see even more lies and manipulations from the political/media class as the narrative managers try to get their rapey little fingers into our minds to manufacture support for unconscionable acts."  Johnstone

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Trumpy!  These stiffs are losers!  Losers!  They lost in Iraq!.  Remember!  You say you like to win.  These guys are losers.  Keeping these losers will just drag you down!  You always dump losers like these.  Remember!  Where did you get these stiffs?  Who pushed them off on you?  Get rid of them losers too!

Bolton torpedoed your deal with your friend Kim!  Remember.  Is he trying to torpedo your deal with China?

You know that you  have to make some kind of deal with Russia and the great judomaster.  Is Bolton trying to screw that up ?

The three stooges.  Ah, no, Pompey the Magnificent is missing from the group mug shot.   Trumpster! You should dump these guys, AND the crews who gave us the messes in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, the Golan Heights, Kushner's deal of the century, and the coming good deal in Lebanon.

Get some new ones.  You can't let little people losers drag you down.  pl

https://southfront.org/caitlin-johnstone-venezuela-establishment-talking-points-translation-key/

A collapse in the House of Bolton?

"The Baghdad Summit is scheduled to take place on April 20th with several Middle Eastern countries set to participate in this conference organized by Iraq.

The list of countries participating in the Baghdad Summit are as followed: Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Syria."  AMN and Reuters

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Unless I am seriously mistaken, this meeting is a major setback for the John Bolton view of "the direction" of history in the ME.  These countries are supposed to be obeying Bolton's rules of international order in which peoples and governments are easily manipulated through intimidation and/or bribes to line up neatly into blocs that are on one side stooges of the US and on the other implacable and deadly enemies who must be pursued across all the world's oceans until they "spout black blood and roll fin out."  They can then be added to the US controlled blocs.

Perhaps I have missed something here but these folks do not appear to be playing their assigned roles.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-turkey-syria-saudi-arabia-set-to-meet-for-first-time-at-baghdad-summit/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-parliament/iraq-to-host-regional-rivals-iran-and-saudi-arabia-at-conference-idUSKCN1RW08B

Yet another piece of Kushner's "Deal of the Century"

"The king said that the plan was dangerous and not simple to implement, in particular the part relating to the land swaps in Tzofar, a moshav in the Arava desert, and Naharayim, where Jordan conquered in 1948 the Island of Peace and a hydroelectric power-plant that belonged to Israel. According to the Trump proposal, Jordan would receive from Saudi Arabia an area equal in size to these territories which Israel would reacquire.

In addition, Jordan has been asked to take in a million “Palestinian” refugees in several stages, in return for $45 billion in investments. Jordan’s entire GDP is only $40 billion. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states will finance these investments."  Jewish Press

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The full "good deal of the century" will evidently be revealed after the Israeli election. 

Pieces of the "good deal of the century" have previously been revealed.

The move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem has been followed by endless Palestinian waves of self immolation along the Gaza "dead line."  This will continue indefinitely unless the Beebster or his successor decide to  re-occupy Gaza to stop Palestinian rockets reaching Tel Aviv.  Now, that  would be a spectacle.

Another piece of "The Kushner Plan" was the cession by the US of the occupied Syrian Golan Heights to Israel.  The justification for this was that the Israelis hold it by force of arms.  Syria, of, course does not accept the US transfer of title deed to part of its territory.

These two things are typical of Trump's NY City real estate methodology.  In his mind he is systematically taking points of contention off "the bargaining table" so that he can "close" over what's left.

This latest "offer" made to Jordan is part of what is left.  Perhaps some savant can explain what the various parts of this "partial good deal" mean. " A million Palestinians?"  Where would they come from?  Would they be round up for transportation to The East?  Saudi Arabia would transfer land to Jordan?  Where?  On the Gulf of Akabah coast near Tabuk?  Really?  The Saudis and Gulfies would cough up $45 billion for investments in Jordan?  To do what?  Tourism?  Really?  And who would own these enterprises?  Lebanon will give its citizenship to the hordes of Palestinian descended people who inhabit the country?  They have firmly resisted this for decades. 

Explain all this, someone.  pl

https://www.jewishpress.com/news/eye-on-palestine/al-akhbar-trump-wants-jordan-to-take-in-1-million-palestinians/2019/04/05/

The H-4 airbase in Jordan

"This airfield was built to support the H4 oil pumping station of the Mosul–Haifa oil pipeline built by the Iraq Petroleum Company between 1932 and 1934 in the Emirate of Transjordan at that time a protectorate of the British Empire. The airfield was used by the RAF during World War Two as the Advanced Headquarters for operations against the rebels in Iraq during the Anglo-Iraqi War. The Airbase is now operated by the Royal Jordanian Air Force.^[1]

Between November 2014 and January 2015, the United States began positioning MQ-9 Reaper UAVs at the base.^[1]

The base also houses AH-1F Cobras, believed to be from the 10th and 12th Squadrons of the Royal Jordanian Air Force, and a Cessna 208B Caravan from the 15th Squadron.  wiki

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As air bases go in the ME this is an old one.  It was probably originally a highway landing strip built by the RAF during the British mandates in Palestine, Transjordan and Iraq.  It was built along the line of the Iraq Petroleum Company pipeline and road from Kirkuk to Haifa.  The town is a few kilometers south of the air base.  It has an official name but in my time out there the Jordanian beduin just called it "ashfour,"  (H4). 

This base has been much improved and expanded since 9/11 with American money.  IMO this is probably the base that Trump referred to last week when he said he would move a lot of the SOF people to an airbase outside Syria.  It is a good operating location, protected by the excellent Jordanian military and within easy operating range of Syria 80 kilometers away.

Combined with the US forces at al-asad airbase in Iraq (where Trump visited) and the artillery and road blocking positions that I posted on as linked,  this would IMO constitute a viable base situation in that part of the ME for continued CT operations rather than the Neo-imperialism of the neocons both in and out of uniform.

I took a delegation of West Point cadets to Jordan during the time I taught there.  We visited Qasr Burqa , a Roman Army auxiliary cohort fort about 20 kilometers NW of "ashfour."  We had a Jordanian Badia (desert) policeman with us and a sergeant from the USDAO in Amman.  It is a lovely place with a little lake that is a stop on the Russia to Africa flyway for migratory birds.  They come there in millions, ducks, ducks everywhere.  Sir John Bagot Glubb told me (RIP) that he spent many happy times at Qasr Burqa.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-4_Air_Base

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/12/httpswwwalmasdarnewscomarticleus-builds-two-military-bases-along-syrian-border-map.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Haifa_oil_pipeline

More than 33,000 refugees have returned to Syria from Jordan since reopening of Nassib Crossing

"Up to 33,500 refugees have reportedly returned to Syria from Jordan through the Nassib border crossing within past two months, footage released on Friday shows.

According to the Russian Centre for Reconciliation of Warring Parties in Syria, between 600-700 Syrian citizens return to the country daily through the Nassib border crossing.

One of the refugees, who deserted from the Syrian army during the conflict, said that he decided to return “after the change of conditions in Syria and the liberation of most of the territory from terrorists,” in addition the amnesty for army deserters announced by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The two countries agreed to reopen the transit route that has been an essential commercial crossing for both countries until its closure in 2015."AMN

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There have also been several thousand exiles returned from Europe, Turkey, Lebanon, etc.  Anyone have the numbers?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/more-than-33000-refugees-have-returned-to-syria-from-jordan-since-reopening-of-nassib-crossing/

Jack Keane doesn't know that the Al as-Saud ARE the Wahhabis

 

"Muhammad ibn Saud and Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab had concluded a formal agreement in 1744: according to one source, Muhammad ibn Saud had declared when they first met,

"This oasis is yours, do not fear your enemies. By the name of God, if all Nejd was summoned to throw you out, we will never agree to expel you." Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab replied, "You are the settlement's chief and wise man. I want you to grant me an oath that you will struggle with me against the unbelievers. In return you will be imam, leader of the Muslim community and I will be leader in religious matters."^[12]

Ibn Saud accordingly gave his oath.^[12] The descendants of Muhammad ibn Saud, the Al Saud, continued to be the political leaders of the Saudi state in central Arabia through the 19th and into the 20th centuries, and eventually created the modern Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932.^[9] The descendants of Ibn Abd al-Wahhab, on the other hand, have historically led the ulema, the body of Islamic religious leaders and scholars,^[13] and dominated the Saudi state's clerical institutions.^[14]

The agreement between Ibn Abd al-Wahhab and Muhammad ibn Saud of 1744 became a "mutual support pact" and power-sharing arrangement between the Al Saud and the Al ash-Sheikh, which has remained in place for nearly 300 years.^{[15][16][17][18]} The pact between the two families, which continues to this day,^{[citation needed]} is based on the Al Saud maintaining the Al ash-Sheikh's authority in religious matters and upholding and propagating the Wahhabi doctrine. In return, the Al ash-Sheikh support the Al Saud's political authority ^[19] thereby using its religious-moral authority to legitimize the royal family's rule.^[20] In fact, each legitimizes the other.^{[citation needed]}This alliance formed in the 18th century provided the ideological impetus to Saudi expansion and remains the basis of Saudi Arabian dynastic rule today.  ^{[21]  wiki on Wahhabism}

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General (ret) Jack Keane Fox News' "Senior Strategic Analyst" said on the air yesterday that the Saudi government "needs to distance itself from the Wahhabis."  this statement displayed a breathtaking lack of knowledge and understanding of Saudi history and actual religiopolitics.

 A few thoughts:

1.  Islam as an idea system does not recognize the legitimacy of secular rule.  Most majority Islamic countries have secular government of some sort.  These governments are the result of exposure to Western political thought through colonial experiences or prolonged exposure to such thought by education in Europe or America.  That admixture of ideas does not replace the ideal of theocracy in Salafi (purist) Islamic thought which continues to hold secular rule to be impious.

2. Islamic culture does not normally legitimize the concept of kingship. (malikiya) or rule by a sultan or shah (Iran).  Islam as such seeks a worldwide Islamic community ruled by scholars and judges of the Islamic law (sharia).  A sultan is someone who merely holds actual power to control land, population and territory.  The term does not denote legitimacy from the Islamic point of view.  Islamic history is dotted with individuals with title of secular rule who claimed Islamic legitimacy because they were also head of some dissident Islamic sect. An example would be the Sultan of Oman who protects the dissident and from the Sunni point of view heretical and apostate Ibadhi sect.  The Jordanian and Moroccan kings are generally accepted as legitimate rulers only because they are believed to be Alids, descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, and endowed with a special barakat (grace) from God.  The Ottoman Sultan derived his supposed legitimacy from being both sultan and caliph (commanders of the faithful)  The Ottomans created this dual status in the 16th Century CE precisely because they sought a plausible claim of Islamic legitimacy as head of the 'umma.  The lack of a plausible claim to Islamic legitimacy was IMO the major weakness of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran This weakness made possible effective resistance to them that eventually resulted in the rule of the mullahs and wilayet al faqih (rule of the scholars).

3.  The Al as-Saud (the Saudi royal family) have none of that.  As stated in the text quoted above, their claim to Islamic legitimacy derives entirely from their 300 year old relationship with the Wahhabi cult.  They and the Wahhabi 'ulema are locked in an embrace that has been until now utterly unbreakable because the general internal consent to their "kingship" is based altogether on the Al as-Saud's role as protectors of what has been seen among the Wahhabi masses as the only true form of Islam.  They and the Al as-Sheikh family are a kind of moiety, a duopoly related by function and often marriage in the control of what became Saudi Arabia in the early 20th Century.

4.  Saudi Arabia is a medieval state adorned with modern infrastructure.  Their society never experienced anything like the Renaissance that brought Europe out of the medieval mindset.  The Saudi rulers think the ideas of statehood that emerged following the Treaty of Westphalia to be a joke that the Europeans and Americans claim to believe in.  They see the rest of the world, including non-Wahhabi Muslims as "the other," enemies to be thwarted, tricked ad exploited .  The notion that they will be shamed by what Mister Bone Saw did is ludicrous.

5.  IMO Trump, Pompeo et al are seeking a way to preserve the relationship of the US with this demoniacal relic of the medieval past.  My WAG on this is that MBS and company will construct a suitable fall guy group from whom confessions will be extracted claiming them to be "rogues" and then the "conspirators" will be executed, probably in public.

6.  The Al as-Saud will then wait to see if the West is mollified.  IMO they will not accept any form of punishment for what they see as just retribution visited upon Khashoggi.  If threatened they will try to retaliate.

For those who would actually wish to understand all this I would recommend "The Social Structure of Islam" by Reuben Levy and "The Venture of Islam" 4 vols. by Marshall Hodgson.  Both these works are concerned with the high culture of Islam.

pl 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_ash-Sheikh

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanbali

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism

Secret US-Syria talks revealed?

" ... a senior US officer (sic) led a delegation that included officers (best read as officials) from several US intelligence and security agencies. Ali Mamlouk welcomed the visiting delegation, along with the head of the General Intelligence Directorate, Major General Deeb Zeitoun, and the Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Major General Mowafaq Asaad.

The meeting between the two sides continued for four hours. What happened?

According to information obtained by the Lebanese «Al-Akhbar» newspaper, the two sides reviewed the various aspects of the Syrian crisis and its stages of development and repercussions in the region, before talking to the most important topic.

The American side made a clear and specific offer: The United States is ready to withdraw its troops completely from Syrian territory, including the Al-Tanf and Eastern Euphrates according to security arrangements supervised by the Russian and Syrian armies. In exchange for three US demands:

 

First, Iran’s full withdrawal from the Syrian south.

 

Second, to obtain written guarantees that give US companies a share of the oil sector in the regions of eastern Syria.

 

Third, the Syrian side to provide the Americans with full data of the terrorist groups and their members, including the numbers of foreign fighter deads of these groups and those who survived, and those may return to Western countries, considering that «the terrorist threat is intercontinental. And what we can get, serve the international security.»  Syriana-analysis

 

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Assuming that all this  happened the question arises for me of the sponsorship of the initiative.

 

This does not sound like a DoD sponsored idea.  IMO the generals and admirals are still intent on continuing the war with an expectation of arriving at a position in which they do not lose face.  They have lost or are losing the war in Afghanistan having predictably failed in COIN again.  In Iraq their COINista efforts resulted in the birth and growth if the Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria.  The generals are badly in need of a win to maintain their prestige and the continued acceptance of monstrously big budgets in the future.  Having presented budgets to Congress I assure that the process is helped if you are seen as a winner.  Even little me.

 

The neocons were surely not behind this.  Assad and company are supposed to depart into the fiery depths of hell. The idea of Bonkers Bolton and Pompeo (first in his class) being for something as rational as this is just too much.

 

My WAG (educated guess) is that this started as an Israeli thought.  The SW frontier zone is now firmly in SAA, UN and Russian control.  The Israelis now accept that there will not be regime change in Damascus, and that the Russians will keep Assad's government "on the reservation."  They still want what they see as the Iranian threat to be reduced.  It would be very interesting to know what was meant by "south Syria."  When this possible effort was exposed to Trump it is natural that he sought to make a few bucks ($$$) for the US out of the Syrian oil resources.  This is the way he thinks and it would be a natural reaction for him even though the US is now an oil and gas superpower.  After all, one must recover the money spent in Syria.  No?

 

My SWAG (up a notch from WAG) is that Trump gave the go ahead over the objections of various parties and that the CIA was told to carry the water in this task.  They would IMO be quite willing.  They and the other IC barons would salivate mightily at the thought of Syrian intelligence data holdings on the jihadis.

 

I hope folks have stayed in touch.  pl

https://www.syriana-analysis.com/details-of-secret-syrian-american-security-meeting-in-damascus/

Russia is stabilizing the Golan front line.

 

"The Russian military police will create eight outposts near the demilitarized zone at the Golan Heights on the Syrian-Israeli border, a deputy commander of the Russian forces in Syria in charge of of military police, Viktor Zaytsev, said.

According to the official, the first permanent observation post of the Russian military police has already been set up. 

“Seven more will be created in the future. They will serve as a security guarantee for civilians of the Quneitra governorate,” he said.

Another deputy commander of the Russian forces in Syria, Sergei Kuralenko, said the outposts will be created near the demilitarized zone, controlled by UN forces.

“I would like to stress that there will be no Russian military police posts in the demilitarized zone,” he said."  AMN

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So, eight Russian OPs will stand between the IDF and the SAA in the low ground just east of the UNDOF run DMZ.  This is a momentous development that clearly signals Israel's acceptance of the status quo ante the civil war in Syria.  IOW Israel accepts the continuing existence of the Syrian Arab Government.   Someone should communicate this fact to Trump and his merry band of economic warriors.  This would probably be welcome news in the context of their nearly global struggle against the dark forces that they think confront them.  Russian MPs are actually escorting UN UNDOF troops back into the DMZ so that the UN people can set up their own OPs.

None of this means that the IAF will stop bombing Iran connected targets in Syria, but it does mean that the temperature will be reduced in the renewed nose to nose confrontation between Syria and Israel.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-military-creates-8-outposts-along-golan-heights-border/

A "Tour d'horizon" of the ME - Lang's opinion

1.  Saudi Arabia has expelled Canada's ambassador and recalled its own for consultations.  It has halted any new business with Canada and stopped giving any new Saudi scholarships to its nationals for study in Canada.  'Adil Jubair (aka The Chihuaha, FM of THE KINGDOM) has taken umbrage with the statements of Chrystia Freeland and Le Petit Justin.   This happy couple said they were unhappy at Saudi governmental nastiness to women's rights activists.  Good heavens!  How dare the Saudis act like that in this modern age, an age filled with Canadian liberal values and Chrystia's well known disdain for local governments.

2.  The SAA is mopping up the jihadi population in east Suweida province.  These jihadis will probably be processed locally into soil enrichments as part of the Greater Syrian Desert Soil Bank program.  Their attack on several Druze villages this weekend with attendant rapine and massacre sealed their fate.

3.  At the same time the SAA and friends (R+6) continue to deploy to the north for the soon to be general offensive against NE Latakia and all of Idlib Province.  Air preparation of key terrain and targets is underway.  This will intensify as D-Day approaches.  At the same time assassinations of key jihadi figures is occurring all over the Idrib-Latakia-Afrin District area.  Some of this is murderous cannibalistic rebels.  Some is Kurdish in nature, but IMO a lot of these are operations of the commando units of Syrian military intelligence who have been more and more active in enemy occupied territory both in ambushes and reconnaissance.  The troop list for the big push is going to include kampfgruppen made up of tailored combinations of most of Syria's quality units and it will be armor heavy.  Tiger Forces teams, 4th Armored Division. Republican Guard, Syrian Marines,  these will all be represented.

4. China is teasing us all with the idea that it may send troops to participate in the Idlib offensive.  Their twin objectives would probably be to insure a foot in the door with the SAG for contracts in reconstruction as well as a desire to kill as many Uighur Muslims as possible in Idlib before they escape and return to western China.

5.  Trump's faithful execution of Israeli policy will result in re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran tomorrow.  The UK, France and Germany have announced that they will not be governed by these sanctions and IMO Trump will not have the stones to sanction these actual American allies. This will be another instance of Trump learning that intimidating countries is a different game than making hotel project deals.  In the case of tariffs the EU caved in what can be seen as bi-lateral negotiations but in this case accepting American orders to reimpose sanctions will be  seen as acceptance of a servile position.  The US position with regard to desired Iranian concessions includes acceptance of a statehood bereft of foreign policy or foreign interventions of any kind.  This is a maximum Israeli position that has been sold to Trump ,the real estate guy, by his donors and family.  Pompeo and Bolton, the neocons, are fully on board as well.  DoD is supportive.  Mattis is always seeking a childish revenge against the Iranians for their actions in Iraq.

6.  On the Palestine Front Jared has been swanning around the Arab World seeking to have them all accept an end to Palestinian support by UNWRA.  He, and the Israelis want the Palestinians deprived of the status of refugees so that they can be said to have no right of return to their ancestral homes in Palestine. With the exception of Jordan, the Arab States have always refused to make the refugees citizens of their countries.  The Palestinians are a distinct ethnic group among the Arab Peoples.  The Israelis hate that idea and have always insisted that the Palestinians could be easily absorbed in the Arab countries.  In fact, they have always been a profoundly disruptive political group in the Arab countries and are not desirous of absorption.  The general ignorance in the Trump Administration of anything resembling the history and nature of the ME continues to make ridiculous all the efforts of Trump & Co. to make peace among peoples of whom they know nothing except whatever the neocons and Zionists tell them  King Salman of Saudi Arabia has rejected the Jared Peace Plan and he is only the first to do so.  There will many.

7.  Trump, Mattis and Co. want to form a Sunni Arab version of NATO united against Iran.  This would include the GCC plus Egypt and Jordan.  Words fail me at the blind ignorance of this idea.  All these countries will gladly accept Saudi money.  That does not mean they will accept Saudi leadership in anything.  This has been proven over and over again.

8.  Yemen? We are assisting a genocidal war.  What else can be said?  pl

Syria Notes - 25 July 2018

1. The SDF/SNC political arm is opening offices with government consent in several Syrian cities, among them Damascus itself.  The goal in this is to negotiate political reconciliation with the government.  If that happens then just about all of Syria east of the Euphrates River will return to government control.  A lot of Syria's oil and gas reserves are out there.  If the previous pattern is followed the armed forces of the SDF would be integrated into the SAA.  This would be very interesting.  The SDF has a lot of volunteer Kurdish women soldiers who are actual and effective fighters.  How the SAA would integrate them would be interesting to watch.  Effectively, such a reconciliation would re-unite the country except for the Turkish occupied and coveted areas in the north, but, as TTG suggests, Turkish ambitions have an uncertain future in north Syria.  Does Trump know about this political move?  I think he must know and that the "fix" is in" on this with Putin.  What do Mattis and CENTCOM think about this? Does it matter?
2. SAA forces in Quneitra and western Deraa provinces are cleaning up the remaining jihadis and other rebels.  Elements of the Tiger Forces national offensive reserve + 9th Armored and 4th Armored Divisions + a lot of NDF militia are advancing south from the Quneitra City ruins (Israel did that in 1974) with their right flank IN the UNDOF DMZ.  The FSA unicorms have surrendered enough equipment to the SAA in the last couple of weeks to equip an additional armored brigade once the Syrian Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (SEME - my neologism) and their Rooshians work it over.  Hey! We Americans under Obama's policy paid for all that.  At last someone will know what to do with it.  The rebel IS affiliates in the black patch in the map are pretty well screwed.  That area is called the Yarmuk Basin (Hud al Yarmuk- hard "H" - "Wow" - hard "D")  It is agricultural land that slopes down through a few villages to the north bank of the Yarmuk River.  Jordan starts on the south bank.  The SAA and friends are going through this area without any problem,  "like s--t through a goose" as Patton would have said.  Amusingly, "Khalid bin al Walid Brigade" is the moniker of the IS jihadis being overrun in the Yarmuk Basin.  He was the Muslim commander at the decisive defeat of the Byzantines at the Battle of the Yarmuk.  Both Bibi and Putin have said that once the Israelis' former IS allies are exterminated then the SAA must back out of the UNDOF DMZ.  I suppose that will happen.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-july-25-2018-israel-shoots-down-syrian-warplane-supporting-anti-isis-operation/

https://southfront.org/militants-in-quneitra-city-nearby-points-start-surrendering-weapons-to-syrian-army-reports/

The White Helmets are saved! The Ottoman Empire is reborn!

(editorial)

Turkey first -  As I have insisted before in these pages, the neo-Ottoman regime of Tayyip Erdogan is, IMO, intent on recovering, to the extent possible, as much of northern Syria and Iraq as it can.  They see these territories as lost Ottoman lands, taken from Turkey by force majeur and to be regained by force or trickery.  Turkish forces are deep in northern Iraq and building what look like permanent bases.  In Syria they captured the Afrin District of Aleppo Province and have constructed a new government manned by their supporters.  It seems obvious that they have in mind to maintain this occupation by their collaborators until some future date when a plebiscite can be staged, a referendum that would favor annexation.  In Idlib the Turks are making the most of the de-escalation agreement they concluded with the Russians last year.  They have established company sized outpost around the boundaries of Idlib Province.  They have begun to build dirt airstrips suitable for C-130 aircraft alongside these "observation posts."  At the same time the Turks have suggested to the Russians that Idlib Province's fate should be left to them  They propose to disarm the rebels (jihadis and non-jihadist) alike, form "a new army" and a new administration for the province.  The ultimate goal seems clear there as in the other Arab territories. How they would disarm the jihadis is a bit of a mystery.  I suspect that neither the Russians nor the SAG will fall for that.

Natanyahu, Trump, Trudaeu, Teresa May and the White Helmets.  IMO the WHs have from the beginning been a Combined project of the UK and US covert action advocates existing for the purpose of black propaganda (pretending to be something else) created for the purpose of undermining the Syrian government.  In the present victorious SAA and Russian campaign in SW Syria some WHs became trapped in the ever shrinking rebel held  pocket backed up to the Israeli occupied Syrian Golan Heights.  The sponsors of the WH project obviously did not want any WHs captured by the SAG who would sweat statements out of them.  To avoid that Israel was asked to exfiltrate them.  That has been done with some number of them (not all).  They will be re-settled in Canada, the UK and Germany where they probably will not be heard of for a while.  What Canada's interest is in this is obscure to me.  pl

What is John Bolton's role in Trump's ME drama?

(editorial)

On a gestalt basis it seems to me from all the bits and pieces of information and rumor that DJT is attempting "The Deal of the Century!" (an episode or two of his soon to be award winning series, "The Greatest President.")

Russian cooperation in this is clearly needed.  Trump is blessedly lacking in ideological fervor.  His Deplorable base is also a bit short on ideology being focused on wages, prices, taxes and other everyday living issues.  Their patriotism expresses itself in devotion to the flag and the anthem and a willingness to serve in the armed forces, something increasingly absent in the "resistance."

Trump has a free hand from his base to negotiate peaceful coexistence with Russia, but he nevertheless must successfully deal with the passion of the neocon wing of the Borg (foreign policy establishment).  They still swoon at the thought of the ongoing renewal of the Cold War.

John Bolton is an arch-neocon, a neocon's neocon.  Trump has sent him to Moscow to arrange an agenda, date and location for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.  IMO this is a stroke of genius.  What it does is put an enemy of good US-Russia relations in charge of arranging the schedule for discussions to improve US-Russia relations.  In LBJ's vulgarism, Bolton is going to be inside the tent peeing out rather than outside peeing in.  Having arranged the meeting, he will be personally invested in its success.  How sweet that is!

Trumps is IMO trying for a grand ME bargain to be achieved with Russian help:

1.  Peace in Syria in the context of abandonment of regime change.  Trump the pragmatist recognizes that the R+6 forces have won the civil war and, therefore he wishes to accept the sunk costs of previous American ineptitude in Syria and to walk away.  US Embassy Amman has signaled to the FSA rebels in SW Syria that they should not expect the US to defend them.  This is a traditional American stab in the back for guerrilla allies but the warning indicates to me that some group in the US Government (probably the CIA) has enough conscience to want to give warning.  As soon as that warning was issued the rate of surrenders to the SAA rose.

2.  The US has thus made it clear that the SAA and Russian forces in Syria have a free hand in the SW and it seems that Israeli air and missile attacks are unlikely against the SW offensive.  This has been insured through a Russian mandate that Hizbullah and IRGC dominated Shia militias stay out of the fight in Deraa and Quneitra Provinces.

3. The Egyptians have been talking to Hamas about their willingness to enter into a hudna (religiously sanctioned truce) with Israel.  Hamas has frequently offered this before.  Such truces are renewable and are often for 10 years.  Kushner's team thinks it has attained Natanyahu's support for this.  The deal would supposedly include; a Gaza-Egyptian industrial zone in the area of Raffa, an airport, a seaport.  In return Hamas would be expected to police the truce from their side of the border.  People on SST who have deep access in Israel doubt the sincerity of apparent Israeli assent, but there is little doubt I think that DJT considers this part of the Grand Bargain he is attempting to forge.  

Nowhere in any of this is anything concerning Iran and I assume that regime change remains the policy.  Nor is there anything about Saudi Arabia and the UAE's mercenary manned war in Yemen.  Ah, well, pilgrims, everything in its time.  pl  

Possible diplomatic breakthrough in southwest Syria - TTG

Several sources are reporting the arrival at an agreement among multiple parties that will leave Damascus and the SAA in full control of southwest Syria without the risk of a full scale conflagration involving Israel, Iran and the US-led coalition... and very likely Russia.

*************************

Russia and Israel have reportedly reached an unprecedented deal which would allow Bashar al-Assad’s forces to take remaining rebel territory in southern Syria - so long as Iranian fighters do not participate.

Moscow appears to have capitulated to Israeli demands to hold back Tehran-backed militias 15 miles from the occupied Golan Heights, according to Israeli and Saudi reports. In return, Israel will not stand in the way of any Syrian regime offensive on the city of Deraa and territory along the Israeli and Jordanian border.

Russia said on Monday only Syrian army troops should be on the country's southern frontiers, which appeared to be directed at Iran.

The deal is said to have been finalised in a phone call days earlier between Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli defence minister, and Sergei Shoigu, his Russian counterpart. It averts a possible direct confrontation between Iran and Israel in Syria, where tensions have heightened between the foes in recent months.  (The Telegraph)

*************************

In a related article in “Newsweek” Russia and the US have agreed to the US forces leaving their base at Al-Tanf and have all rebels transferred to Idlib. In exchange the Syrian-Jordanian border crossings would be opened. All Syrian and non-Syrian militias would be withdrawn up to fifteen and a half miles from the Jordanian border. I assume the SAA would be stationed along this border.

This is a major win for Damascus and only a minor adjustment for Teheran. The Iranian affiliated militias still have plenty to do well to the west of Dara'a and the Golan. The only real losers in these deals would be the various jihadist rebels in the area. Without logistical and military support from Israel, Jordan and the rest of the US-led coalition, the rebels would have to face the best of the SAA on their own. Their choices are to seek reconciliation with Damascus, be shipped to Idlib with the rest of the jihadist leftovers or die in place at the hands of the Tiger Force and the rest of the flower of the SAA. The IS jihadists in the tri-border area will most likely die in place.

That Israel would give up their jihadist allies in exchange for a dozen or so miles of separation from Iranian backed militias and the IRGC indicates to me that they have no stomach for active conflict on the Golan front. Perhaps the last dust up in which the SAA fired back gave the IDF reason to rethink their long term strategy.

TTG

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/29/russia-israel-agree-deal-hold-back-iranian-militias-assad-prepares/

http://www.newsweek.com/us-military-will-give-major-syria-base-deal-russia-reports-say-948272

Syria Notes - 26 May 2018

 

"“As a guarantor of this de-escalation area with Russia and Jordan, the United States will take firm and appropriate measures in response to Assad regime violations,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement late on Friday.

A war monitor, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, reported on Wednesday that Syrian government forces fresh from their victory this week against an Islamic State pocket in south Damascus were moving into the southern province of Deraa. 

Syrian state-run media have reported that government aircraft have dropped leaflets on rebel-held areas in Deraa urging fighters to disarm.

The U.S. warning comes weeks after a similar attack on a de-escalation zone in northeastern Syria held by U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. U.S. ground and air forces repelled the more than four-hour attack, killing perhaps as many as 300 pro-Assad militia members, many of them Russian mercenaries. 

Backed by Russian warplanes, ground forces from Iran and allied militia, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have helped Assad drive rebels from Syria’s biggest cities, putting him in an unassailable military position."  Reuters

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The position is so unassailable that the SAA is releasing from service soldiers who have served from 2010.  Now, that is confidence.

As we have written here, the SAA is preparing to liberate yet more SYRIAN territory, territory in the SW of the country.  This makes the Israelis nervous and so they have caused their  American puppets to warn Syria against eliminating jihadi and FSA held pockets near the Jordanian border and the Israeli occupied Golan Heights.

Is this for real?  Are Pompeo Maximus and Mattis, the Marine Monk, really going to commit US forces to battle against a sovereign state that is attempting to regain control of its own land?  Really?

There are scattered reports that US air has recently attacked SAA forces out in eastern Homs Province.  That does not seem "confirmed" to me, but perhaps it is true and the decision to fight Syrian forces has already been made.  pl  

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa/us-warns-syria-of-firm-measures-for-ceasefire-violations-idUSKCN1IR03V

Neocon Jack Keane wants a permanent US presence in Syria

 

"Keane retired from military service in 2003. He now works as a national security analyst for Fox News. He has served an advisory role in the management of the U.S. occupation of Iraq, as a member of the Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee. In January 2007, Keane and scholar Frederick W. Kagan released a policy paper, entitled "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq",^[7] through the American Enterprise Institute that called for bringing security by putting around 30,000 additional American troops there for a period of at least 18 months. In part convinced by this paper, President George W. Bush ordered on January 10, 2007, the deployment of 21,500 additional troops to Iraq, most of whom would be deployed to Baghdad, this deployment has been nicknamed the 2007 "surge".    wiki on Keane

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I watched this man hold forth this morning on Varney and Company a business and politics show hosted by Stuart Varney a fervently American immigrant from England who apparently never saw a jingo he didn't like.

General Keane is a close associate of the Kagans, Victoria Nuland, Petraeus and the like.  He has consistently pressed in policy circles for aggressive foreign policy ventures including the Iraq "Surge" that helped secure the Baghdad area from Iraqi insurgents.  In fact the security situation markedly improved across Iraq because Petraeus was smart enough to encourage the work that had been done by Green Berets and junior USMC people in encouraging the Sunni Arabs to abandon support of the jihadi guerrillas.

On Varney's show today Keane pushed for a US policy in Syria that would establish a "security zone" in Syria east of the Euphrates and in the Kurdish areas east of Manbij.  He was clear that he believes that this "security zone" should be held indefinitely, in other words, permanently.

He said that such a zone would prevent the western expansion of Iran through northern Iraq and then Syria westward to the Mediterranean thus completing the dreaded Shia Crescent.  The fact that the Iraqi sovereign government might object to such Iranian expansion did not seem to occur to him.  Perhaps he has taken note of the condemnation by that Shia Arab dominated government of the FUKUS missile strikes in Syria.

To help the FUKUS forces hold this enclave indefinitely, he repeated the notion that the Sunni majority countries in the region should contribute armed forces to the Sunni Enclave.  DJT has recently said much the same thing.  This raises the possibility to me that his "thinking" on this matter originates with the arch neocons and their favorite vehicle the Institute for the Study of War, a Kagan operation through and through.  Well, pilgrims, I am here to tell you that the Sunni Arab countries are not going to do that,  Apart from Jordan's small but competent forces, the rest have no armed forces capable of doing anything but oppress civilian populations.  Saudi Arabia's indefensible war against the people of Yemen is a perfect example of the military ineptitude of the Sunni Arab states.  Repeatedly defeated by the Houthis and the rump of the Yemeni Army the Saudi have resorted to employing African and other mercenaries against the Yemenis as well as pursuing a savage campaign of aerial bombing against Yemeni civilians.  Perhaps they were inspired to do this by the courses of study of RSAF officers at the US Air Force "University" at Montgomery, Alabama.  the Strategic Bombing theories of Douhet are still much admired there.

Toward the end of his discourse this morning, Keane, came to the crux of his argument.  He said that a war is coming in which Iran, Hizbullah and the Syrian government will fight Israel and that the US must be in a position in Syria to defend Israel when that happens.  Thus it is revealed that the source of Keane's (and now DJT's) thinking is simply Israel's obsession with the hostility of the Gentile World to include all those Muslims surrounding them.  In other words, Keane's neocon pitch is based on Zionist fear.

Keane several times repeated a line to the effect that no US combat brigades or regiments would be committed to the Sunni Enclave.  To believe this magical thinking is to believe that no real fighting would eventually have to be done.

I have seen a poll today that indicates that 61% of the American people approve of the FUKUS missile strikes against the fictional chemical weapons target set in Syria.  The gullibility involved in that is impressive.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Keane

At least Nauru is still with us ...

 

"  nine states – including the United States and Israel –voted against the resolution. The other countries which supported Washington were Togo, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Marshall Islands, Guatemala and Honduras."  Guardian

-------------

(irony alert) So, Perfidious Albion has bitten the hand that fed them.  That's right isn't it?  No?  What about all that Spam we sent them when they ran out of crumpets?  What about that?  Why would Palau have voted on our side?  Ah, there must be some pot of Golden Grickels from which they sup, maybe something about a Jack London memorial pearl fishery or, something. (end of irony)

 

Nikki Haley, is a city girl flower of South Carolina politics.  Do you suppose that she may be learning that THE WORLD is harder to bully than a bunch of "good ole boys" who like to put Rebel flag decals on their pick-up trucks?

And then, there are the related spectacles of the Israeli UN ambassador sneering just now on the TeeVee at THE WORLD whilst Iraq, Afghanistan, Jordan, Turkey and Egypt voted for the resolution.  I guess that means that they don't need the money badly enough to roll over when ordered. 

There will be no peace for Israel.  pl 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/21/united-nations-un-vote-donald-trump-jerusalem-israel

A Soldier’s Tour of Syria - TTG

Overall things are going quite well for the R+6. Although the IS and other jihadi forces are still capable of staging limited tactical offensive operations, any gains they make are short lived.

In southwest Raqqa governorate, General Suheil al-Hassan has stated that his Tiger Forces will be in Deir Ezzor by the beginning of September. They are battling for several towns along the Euphrates along with local tribal forces and are aiming to soon take Ma’adan. A few days ago IS launched a counterattack in this area preceded by ten plus VBIED attacks. Suheil and his allies suffered close to forty dead and fifty wounded, but by the end of the day they retook what little ground they lost and continued the advance. A Tiger Force commander described Jihadi losses thusly, “ISIS losses are folds of ours.”

This Tiger Force offensive is also widening the front away from the Euphrates and now occupies a growing section of the Raqqa-Deir Ezzor border. They are poised to attack at both Ma’adan and at the critical road junction in the Bishri Triangle.

Further west a new R+6 offensive is taking place south of Ithriyah. The Cheetah Group of the Tiger Forces has been redeployed from the southeast Raqqa front to serve as the core of this new offensive along with Liwaa Al-Quds, Qalamoun Shield, the 11th Tank Division and elements of the NDF and SSNP. The goal of this offensive is to drive south towards Suknah to isolate the jihadis entrenched in the Uqayribat region in eastern Hama. These jihadists are at the western end of a large bulge in central Syria aimed at Homs and Hama. A quick glance at the above map shows the significance of this bulge. The R+6 has also launched an offensive from Salamiyah towards Uqayribat.

I assess the plan is to reduce the Uqayribat bulge before the Tiger Forces offensive from southwest Raqqa drives to Deir Ezzor. The dual offensive drives into the bulge will either force the jihadis to die in place, pull back towards the Euphrates or be fixed in place to the point they are incapable of any offensive action. The southwest Raqqa offensive will simultaneously take Ma’adan and the Bishri Triangle. They will then be in position to launch a wide offensive from Ma’adan to Deir Ezzor and from the Bishri Triangle to Ash Sholah and on to Deir Ezzor once the Uqayribat bulge is addressed.

Operation "Grand Dawn" Post 4 - TTG

"BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:45 P.M.) – Syria and Jordan have entered into talks mediated by Russia to reopen the Nassib Border-Crossing, Al-Masdar learned today from a military source. If the talks are successful, the rebel forces at the Nassib Border-Crossing will be ordered to withdraw from the area by their Jordanian partners.

Reopening the Nassib Border-Crossing would have a positive impact on Syria’s strained economy, as both countries were once key trade partners in the region.

While the two governments discuss economic rapprochement, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has resumed its offensive in the Dara’a Governorate, today, targeting the eastern part of the provincial capital in a bid to expel the rebel forces from the area." (Al Masdar News)

*********************

Leith Fadel and Al Masdar News are fairly reliable sources. A second source, Ivan Sidorenko, provided what appears to be a machine translation of an Arabic language report of a more far reaching development in this area. 

*********************

“Daraa: A ceasefire is looming in the horizon, a ceasefire will start tomorrow at 12 PM from both sides (the regime by Russia’s mediation and the states funding the Southern front), the first stage of this ceasefire will be a 48 hours ceasefire, after that, a meeting will be organized to introduce a complete ceasefire. The ceasefire will include the stopping of reinforcements from both sides, stopping the barrel bombs & the warplanes strikes & heavy machines shelling by the regime, but will the “Bunian al-Marsous” operation command accept this? We shall see in the next upcoming hours”  (@IvanSidorenko1)

*********************

Sounds like good news… or wishful thinking. The R+6 is slamming the rebel forces in Daraa with aerial, artillery and rocket strikes. They are making progress on the ground and are massing for an even larger offensive. If this all happens, it will be due to the negotiating power of Russia backed up by determined threat of serious R+6 military force in this area. I would think Jordan is not at all comfortable with the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade sitting so close to their border. I also believe many of the rebels in this area do not have their heart in the fight and only continue fighting because of the diehard AQ units among them. I don’t think Jordan’s heart is in this fight, either.

If this ceasefire does come to fruition, this will be a major success for Operation Grand Dawn. It will secure another section of Syria’s southern border and will facilitate the implementation of the southernmost de-escalation zone. It will also free up some major firepower for the eastward push to Al Bukamal and Deir Ezzor.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syria-jordan-talks-reopen-border-crossing/

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/875888684314361856

Operation “Grand Dawn” Post 2 - TTG

Although details are scarce and often conflicting, it appears the R+6 operation to reclaim Syria's southern border is proceeding. It is also about to come face-to-face with the Coalition plan to carve out a safe area in this part of Syria. We shall see who blinks first. 

———————————————

“Russian paratroopers and special forces arrived in the Al-Sweida Governorate of southern Syria this week, following the U.S. attack on a pro-government convoy near the Iraqi border-crossing, a military source told Al-Masdar News last night. The Russian military personnel will take the role of advising the Syrian government troops in southern Syria, while also helping to deter any potential response from the U.S. and Jordanian forces that have carved a niche in the Al-Sweida and Homs governorates.

According to some media activists in southern Syria, the Russian forces are planning to build a base along the Al-Sweida Governorate’s border with Jordan; however, this could not be confirmed by Al-Masdar News. Rumors have also surfaced regarding the deployment of the 31st Brigade of the Russian special forces; they are allegedly meant to engage the enemy forces and help the government troops seize the Iraqi border-crossing.”  (AMN)

———————————————

This Russian Brigade is the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade based in Ulyanovsk. The brigade consists of three mechanized infantry battalions (2 air assault, 1 airborne), an artillery battalion (also mechanized), an aviation squadron and other support and combat support units. This brigade forms the core of Russia's immediate response force. In addition to its high state of combat readiness, it is well trained in peace keeping/peace enforcement operations. I have seen no reports of this unit entering combat. However, Russian advisors and spetsnaz target acquisition teams appear to be liberally spread among the SAA, NDF and other units involved in Operation Grand Dawn. There are also enough Russian aircraft and helicopters in the area to make it look like a Moscow air show.

 

Operation "Grand Dawn" Post 1

 

"On Thursday, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies announced start of the Operation “Grand Dawn in eastern Syria. The aim of the operation is to expel militants from the eastern desert and to set a foothold for a push to Deir Ezzor. The declaration followed a major success of government forces in southeastern Homs where they had liberated about 5,000 km2 and got a full control over the Damascus-Palmyra highway.

ISIS deployed a force for a counter-attack but its formidable military convoy was fully destroyed by the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Air Force en route to the Zaza triangle area. Thus, the terrorist group defense lines just collapsed.
The government advance south of the Homs-Palmyra highway also allowed government forces to isolate Jaish al-Islam militants in eastern Qalamoun and to prevent their attempt to unite efforts with US-backed militant groups operating near the Syrian-Jordanian border"  southfront

----------------

To misquote "Old Blue Eyes,"  they're doing it their way.  It is hard to argue with this much success.  I would have gone for Idlib Province first but this is impressive.  the R+6 have now connected in one terrain mass all their previously separated road bound penetrations in the area from Damascus to Palmyra and beyond.  They seem intent on advancing to al tanf. 

This plus the declared intention of the Iraq PMU to advance to the Syria-Iraqi border would seem to put paid to US coalition plans for a redoubt base area for its FSA unicorns and assorted AQ type jihadis in the area astride the border triangle of Syria/Jordan/Iraq.

All of this is being assisted by the IS efforts to defend in the general Raqqa area.  To do this they are evidently withdrawing forces from the central desert of Syria.  The armored counterattack in this report was probably originally intended for dispatch to the Raqqa area but they were diverted to the counterattack and were destroyed by air attack out in the open desert.  Good.

Well, well, pilgrims ...  what next?  pl  

 

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-may-26-2017-syrian-army-liberated-5000km2-isis/

IMO the "de-escalation zones" are a clever trick. Thank God.

 

IMO Putin and Lavrov are even more clever than I had thought.  The Astana process proposal for "de-escalation zones" in Syria has something for everyone:

1.  The SAG will receive yet more advice and assistance from Russia.  As evidence of this R+6 forces are assembling in the eastern Homs Province area for a massive drive to liberate Deir al-Zor.  The Tiger Forces and 5th Corps of the SAA seem to be poised to spearhead this drive.  This effort, evidently to be conducted with full Russian air and advisory support is not indicative of Russia having "thrown in the towel" and washed its hands of the fate of the present Syrian government.

2.  At the same time a glance at the placement of the proposed "de-escalation zones" shows that these are all jihadi dominated areas under the protection and support of foreign sponsors; Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, the smaller Gulfies and probably still the US.  The supposed creation of these jihadi Bantustans will please the sponsors but it should not.

3.  Why?  The very AQ descended or connected jihadi military forces in these areas are excluded from the terms and protection of "the deal."  This means that after the Deir al-Zor operation is ended the R+6 will be free to turn their attention to destroying terrorist jihadi forces in these enclaves.

4.  IMO Putin wants to improve relations with the US.  Trump will probably believe that this ploy is a genuine expression of good will rather than a clever maneuver.  Look to see a follow on set of proposals for something like a UN supervised referendum in the Crimea on annexation and a proposal for a US/Russian mixed military commission to determine the actual state of affairs in the Donbas and eastern Ukraine generally.  pl 

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-may-5-2017-de-escalation-zones-and-advance-on-deir-ezzor/ 

Is Trump bluffing overseas?

Perhaps he is.  The number of his veiled or unveiled threats against foreign actors seems to multiply every day.

1.  The president said at his presser with the Italian that Iran has not lived up to the "spirit" of JCPOA.  What does that mean?  As I recall the agreement's finalization was immediately followed by cries from Congress that the Iranians should expect no lessening in hostility from the US.  Was that in the "spirit" of JCPOA?  This is ridiculous.  The bi-partisan warhawk nationalists in Washington want Iran on its knees begging for forgiveness,  The question asked should be - Or what?  US air strikes designed to fight a war that Israel wants but cannot accomplish?  A naval war in the Gulf?  Or what?

2.  The president has said that North Korea "should behave."  Or what?  Some military gesture to demonstrate US disapproval of their nuclear weapons/ballistic missile programs?  Or a full blown war to the death on the peninsula?  Really?  Does Trump or the evidently mad duo of Mattis/McMaster fully grasp the scale of the destruction and people losses that would ensue?  Some of the people of SST have suggested that maybe NOKO could actually be bargained with if we adopted a different attitude toward the little bastards.  Really?  What a thought!

3.  Tillerson went to Moscow to bring the Russians to heel on various matters and left with nothing to show for his trouble   NATO keeps moving assets into Eastern Europe to confront the Russian menace.  The prevailing idea in the Borgist foreign policy establishment in Washington and London seems to be that the US (with UK advice) must guide human events and any thought of national independence anywhere in the world must be stamped out.  Really?  How is that to be enforced?  With war? With yet more economic sanctions that drive Russia toward China?

4.  Mattis (without producing evidence) insists that Syria has retained some indeterminate number of tons of chemical weapon materials.  This is a transparent effort to justify further aggressive action against Syria.  At the same time AQ connected guerrillas, heavily armed with US TOW are attacking to re-capture the southern Syrian border city of Deraa from government forces.  these forces are heavily supplied with US material support from sources in Jordan just to the south of the city.    Will Mattis/McMaster justify direct US intervention there to create a "safe zone" in preparation for partition of the country or as a base for a drive on Damascus to unseat the government and install the jihadis?

All of this raises the question of why the Trump Administration is placing itself in position in which if we are defied we will have to fight a number of bloody wars simultaneously  Why?  pl

This may finish Bibi ...

"Reaction to the joint press conference came swift and strong from other American Jewish organizational leaders, and far less positive than the ZOA’s Klein.    “I’m not sure Trump understands the implications” of a one state solution, said Rabbi Jill Jacobs, executive director of T’ruah: the Rabbinic Call for Human Rights. “It is a very dangerous suggestion.”for Peace Now spokesman Ori Nir called the press conference “terrifying” and “a squandered opportunity” to “signal to Israelis, Palestinians, Americans and the world a clear commitment to peace.”It was a chance to “chart a constructive way forward for U.S.-Israel relations and for Israel’s future, for its security and its wellbeing as a democracy and a Jewish state,” Nir said.  Instead, “the two leaders are not only depriving Israel of the very possibility of reaching peace but also undermining Israel's own future as a democracy and a Jewish state” when they discuss a one-state possibility. He added, “they are delivering a huge victory to extremists on both sides.” The Reform Movement’s Rabbi Rick Jacobs said he views Trump’s statements as “an abdication of the longtime, bipartisan support for a two-state solution.”  Haaretz

-------------------

Well, pilgrims, I said a few days ago that it would be well to see the result of Natanyahu's visit before coming to a conclusion about what the Trump/Kushner approach to Israel/Palestine might be. 

IMO Trump is going to challenge the long treasured shibboleths of the Zionist/AIPAC community in search of a creative path to peace.

The hard core Zionists know that a one state solution would be the end of the Zionist dream of a Jewish State in historic Palestine.  If given actual equal rights of citizenship in such a country the Palestinians would fairly soon become a majority and the stronger power in a one state government.  That is simply unacceptable to the Zionists.  It would be the end of all their dreams.

Trump knows that and is evidently willing to "up the ante" to that level of leverage if Israel wants his support to get the best deal available to them, rather than the deal they wanted in which they would have completely dominate the situation.

Bibi is much threatened at home by corruption charges  (evidently the Maureen McDonnell syndrome) and challenges from his Right.  It seems that Trump went straight to his weaknesses.

It will be interesting to learn if Bibi survives his acquiescence and how much Zionist support Trump loses.  pl  

http://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-1.772061

IMO, there are not enough troops...

"The Syrian Arab Army’s 525th Regiment of the 18th Tank Division was under heavy attack near the T-4 Airport; this prompted a direct military intervention from their Russian advisers. In just two days, the Russian Marines helped the Syrian Armed Forces recapture the initiative in east Homs, while also recovering several points near the Al-Sha’ar Gas Fields and T-4 Military Airport. Now, with the Syrian Arab Army’s “Tiger Forces” pushing south towards the Al-Sha’ar Gas Fields, the Russian Marines can go back to their original role, which includes advising the Syrian Armed Forces."  AMN

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-marines-participate-east-homs-battle/ | Al-Masdar News

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syria-situation-report-may-7-13-2016

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I have understood that Russian marines were in Syria to secure their air base complex and naval facilities at Latakia and Tartus as well as to do some line troop re-training.  Now we see them committed to actual front line combat.

IMO this backs up my contention that the R+6 alliance in Syria lacks enough quality ground combat units to accomplish their many obvious objectives in population and geographical control of Syria's territory and resources.   

It is easy to list the SAG's primary and current operational and strategic needs:

• The portion of Aleppo City still under insurgent control must be re-occupied.  The political effect of this success would greatly improve the over-all position of the SAG especially at Geneva.  The world has awaited a serious effort to make this happen.  Perhaps it will occur, but not yet.
• Idlib Province needs to be re-occupied.  If that occurred communications and trade would be freed between Aleppo City and both Latakia Province and Damascus to the south.  A lack of progress in doing this and the reverses and lack of progress suffered by R+6 at places like Tel Issa and Khan Touman are indicative of an insufficiency of strength on the ground.
• The continued existence of the large insurgent pocket around Rastan between Homs and Hama astride the main north-south highway is a major embarrassment for the integrity of the Syrian state.  It does not seem that much is being done about this.
• LOCs all over the eastern parts of Syria on the roads to Aleppo and Palmyra are continuously threatened by insurgent forces operating in what are really open, treeless, barren deserts.  This indicates a continuing SAG inability to field enough forces to conduct patrol and local quick reaction forces to push the insurgents back from the roads.  Please don't tell me that TE Lawrence did the same thing along the line of the Hijaz Railroad.  Yes, he did and he was able to do that because the Turks were not strong enough in troops in the Hijaz to outpost and patrol the railroad line adequately.
• In East Ghouta just beyond the eastern boundaries of Damascus, the SAA and other R+6 forces seem unable to muster sufficient force to clear what amounts to a surrounded and nearly isolated inferior force.
• The need to advance from Palmyra to Deir Az-Zour  and then to Raqqa is clear but there is not a lot of progress in doing that.
• From Damascus south to the Jordanian border the real action seems to be the struggle for control between IS on the one hand and non IS insurgent forces on the other with the SAA largely in a spectator status.

All of that indicates to me that there just are not enough ground troops in R+6 to sustain the stated goal of the SAG to re-conquer the country.  Why is that?  Syria is a substantial country and many, many of its citizens loath and fear the prospect of living and dying under jihadi rule.  Nevertheless, millions have fled to:  Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Europe and Canada.  Among these migrants are hundreds of thousands of men of military age (of all confessions) who have chosen to abandon their country to its fate. 

The bi-polar policy of the US with regard to Syria contributes to this flight in that it both encourages resistance to the Syrian Government and also encourages the belief that the collapse of IS is inevitable and therefore personal self sacrifice would be foolish. 

Russia, Hizbullah and Iran must be considering the inevitability of a negotiated peace that will destroy the Syrian state if the present correlation of forces continues.  That inevitability is certainly the main objective of the neocons and R2P.  pl

Ah... The Terrible Turks

" ...  a Kremlin statement made clear Russia was committed to its campaign against Islamic State and "other terrorist organizations", an indication that it would also target groups in western Syria where jihadists such as al Qaeda are fighting Assad in close proximity to rebels deemed moderate by the West.

Russia says the "cessation" does not apply to its air strikes, which have shifted the balance of power toward Assad.

It says Islamic State and the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front are the main targets of its air campaign. But Western countries say Russia has in fact been mostly targeting other insurgent groups, including some they support.

The White House said Obama's discussion with Putin stressed the need to rush humanitarian aid to Syria and contain air strikes.

"In particular, President Obama emphasized the importance now of Russia playing a constructive role by ceasing its air campaign against moderate opposition forces in Syria," the White House said in a statement."  Reuters

----------------

I worked in Turkey long ago, with the Turkish Army actually.  It was a very pleasant time, a two year vacation from the wars in SE Asia.  I like the Turks.  They are a lot like Americans used to be; blunt, inclined to direct action...  At the same time they treasure a pleasure in scheming that they share with the Syrian and Lebanese descendants of the vassals of the Ottoman state.

The US and the West in general have encouraged an attitude in Erdogan's Turkey that mirrors Bibi's statement that "the Americans can be pushed easily."  We all look malleable to Erdogan.  He is an MB style salafi.  He wants to think we are degenerate and doomed to live in a world dominated by his kind of Islam. We have given him no reason to think that is not the future.  At the same time we have tolerated his traffic in IS oil coming across the border east of Azaz and west of Jarabulus.    Why have we done that?  We must know that the money derived from that trade supports IS.

Now he threatens Europe with release of masses of Muslim migrants upon them.  We deserve to be threatened.  We look soft.

Now the Turkish Army is shelling YPG positions around Menagh village and its airfield near Azaz in Syria.  Why are they doing that?  IMO they want to keep R+6 forces plus the YPG from closing the border Azaz-Jarabulus and the shelling is a warning.  They have said that the Kurds must withdraw from these positions and not return.

Turkish 2nd Army is massing north of the Azaz/Jarabulus sector of the border.  The Saudi Sunni led juggernaut is at least notionally intended for combat in Syria.  Yesterday I raised the straw man idea that they might motor march all the way to Baghdad and beyond.  That seems implausible.  On the other hand a sea movement around Arabia and through the Canal to a major port like Iskenderun is quite plausible, especially given the news that Saudi aircraft are deploying into Incirlik not far from Iskenderun.  A Sunni juggernaut/Turkish Army link up in SW Turkey would provide Turkish fire and logistical support to the Sunni juggernaut.

What role would the US play in a scheme like that?  Unknown.

Would the Turks/Sunni juggernaut actually invade Syria and risk war with Russia?  Unknown.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0VN0MA

http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/turkey-shells-kurds-in-syrian-border-village-after-recapture/2016/02/13/

http://www.voanews.com/content/activists-turkey-shells-syrian-kurds-for-2nd-day/3190340.html

Twilight of the rebels south of Damascus

 "In a pivotal step reflecting the changeability of military and political deals in Israel’s neighborhood, Jordan has almost overnight agreed to establish a shared war room with Russia for the concerted conduct of their operations in Syria. This represents an extreme reversal of Amman’s policy. Until now, Jordan fought against Russia’s protégée Bashar Assad from a joint war room north of Amman called the US Central Command Forward-Jordan, as part of a lineup with the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel."  Debka

-------------------

IMO, the retention of Jordanian participation in the CENTCOM ops center in Jordan is just re-insurance intended to hedge Jordan's new bet on R+6's coming victory in the area south of Damascus.  With this new policy, Jordan will help Russia destroy the rebel forces in that area or will undoubtedly disarm them as they cross the border into Jordan.  Jordan needs to get the war over with so that the masses of Syrian refugees can go home, but the price of that should not to be to let jihadis find a refuge in Jordan.  Jordan has far too many takfiri salafi within its borders already.  Article 9 may apply to some.

King Abdullah came to Washington this week to discuss this (possibly seeking available "gimmedats?") and was in the process of being ignored by Obama (obsessed as he is with "justice").  Then some brave soul explained to the prez that Jordan was abandoning its alliance with the US and Israel in favor of R+6.  That was evidently enough to get his attention (even though still distracted by Sandy Hook and his continuing grief).  He met Abdullah planeside at Andrews AFB as the little guy was leaving the US, but, alas, too little too late.

Debka's tone in this piece is remarkable.  It reeks of Israeli ethnocentric arrogance.  Jordan is not a serious player militarily, really? Moscow's "key objective" is to clear south Syria of rebels?  In fact the action in northern Syria is much more significant from Moscow's POV in that it is likely to kill more jihadis.   These will be jihadis who will not end up back in Russia. 

About the only thing that could save the rebels south of Damascus from their Gotterdammerung would be an Israeli attack into the flank of R-6.   Good luck on that happening!  pl 

 

https://www.debka.com/article/25166/Putin-bypasses-Israel-sets-up-joint-war-room-for-S-Syria-with-Jordan-

The army that will never be...

On the Farid Zakariya newsie today Susan Rice explained with some brevity and clarity that No Fly Zones/Sanctuary Areas in Syria are not favored by the BHO branch of the Borg because they are "resource intensive" and would require "tens if thousands of troops to defend them."  Well, duh... I would bet some of my own money that it took a lot of time and many briefings by the JCS to persuade the herd of squirrels at the WH of those simple facts.  Good!  Someone managed to do that.  One wonders if HC could be similarly persuaded.

An equally important element in the active fantasy life of the Obama Administration as well as most Republican and Democratic presidential aspirants is the notion of a regional ground combat force that would in their field of dreams  go to Syria and Iraq and destroy the Islamic State.  The truth is that such an army will never be.

• The Gulfies (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) are core supporters of Sunni jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq.  They may have washed their hands of the IS specter but the reason for doing that is the arrival in the Gulf of the idea that the petty princes on the Gulf are inevitably seen by IS as a collective abomination to be destroyed as soon as conveniently possible.
• Even if the Gulfie group decided to accede to Obamanite wishes for them to fight IS on the big chess board of north Arabia they are impotent to do so.  Their collection of foreign built military equipment is one of the largest static displays of military materiel in history.  They are poorly trained, under-manned and commanded by sycophants of the princely (to include SA) houses, men for whom their wages are all they live for.  To top off the list of the defects of the armed forces of the Gulfies they lack "the stones" for real war.  They can be killers, but not fighters.  Look at the mess they have made of their aggression in Yemen.  Look at it!
• Egypt.  The Egyptian military is a large money making enterprise that is built to control internal political activity in Egypt itself.  They do that well but have neither the taste nor an inclination to go fight IS in northern Arabia.
• Iran.  They DO have "the stones," but we reject their participation.
• Jordan.  The country's small but effective armed forces are fully committed to blocking both internal and external threats to the kingdom.  IMO King Abdullah is not going to risk Islamist revolt at home while his men are engaged in Syria or Iraq.
• Turkey.  Basically on the Islamists side.
• Iraq.  What will be on the Sunni Arab side already is.  There are Sunni Arab units in the Iraqi Army.  They are largely worthless as combat power.  There are tribal forces that the central government thinks of as enemies and refuses to arm.

When you add this all together you find that the only Sunnis seriously fighting the Islamists (IS, Nusra, etc.) are Kurds and the Sunni Arab soldiers and militia fighting on the side of the government in Syria.  They and their Russian, Hizbullah, IRGC and sectarian and ethnic militia allies are alone and will remain alone.  pl 

A Modest Political Proposal For Syria

So, the Iranians think Assad should stand for election in a new government?

I agree.

there should be an election under UN supervision that includes all Syrians; those in Syrian government controlled land, those in rebel controlled land, those in exile in, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Europe, Canada and in Europe.  They should all vote.  All should also be allowed to stand for election and that should include Bashar Assad. 

The argument is made by the Borg (led by or leading Obama) that Assad has lost his "legitimacy" (always a tricky thing to establish).  If "legitimacy" in this case means the consent of the governed, well, pilgrims, a fully supervised election, would establish whether or not that is true.

Assad won an election like that a few years back, so...

Now, I fully understand that parties perhaps unknown will try to rig the election using the UN as an instrument.  Well, lets see them do that while we all watch.  Let's see it...

IS and the other jihadi groups are not interested in the consent of the governed, but the US supposedly is so interested. 

Let's do it!  pl

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/iran-deputy-minister-says/2266242.html

Grahamismo and the Muslims

Senator Lindsey Graham is living proof that the citizens of South Carolina are a lot more tolerant than they are generally thought to be by folks from the Deep North.  More than that I will abstain from saying.

Lindsey Graham was on "Morning Joe" today.

It is true that Graham comes from humble circumstances.  He and Boehner share the distinction of having worked in their respective fathers' saloons.  More power to them!  It used to be a cultural trait in Euro-Americans that whatever your economic level of upbringing it was thought to be a good thing that you should learn to do hard manual labor as a youth and then you went to college, maybe.  I will not be self-referential but I fully understand the idea and approve of it.  Some Europeans have explained to me their revulsion at the thought of that experience.  Ah, well...

Graham is often described as the only presidential campaign candidate for 2016 who has any military service experience.  Well, yes, Trump was at NY Military Academy, a private prep school at Yonkers, and he, Trump, says he is the most "militaristic" of all the candidates.  One wonders if he understands the word.   Tojo was  a militarist.  Mussolini was a militarist.  Militarists are politicians with an inclination to rely on armed force to follow aggressive and usually nationalist objectives.

Graham served seven years as an air force lawyer, nearly all of it in Germany at the former Rhein-Main air base at Frankfurt where he tried cases involving misbehavior on the part of locally assigned USAF people.  He then returned to civilian life and was an Air National Guard and later USAF reserve lawyer for a long time while he pursued his civilian life as a lawyer and politician.  Well, pilgrims, the Grunts, Tankers, Combat Aviators and SF men here will have a hard time taking Graham seriously as a "military man."  Sorry, counselors. but that is how I see it.  Sooo, IMO Graham has no military knowledge or experience that should be taken seriously, but he has a lot to say, none of it based on much of anything but briefings received in his senate offices and in Israel.  He evidently knew nothing of the ME until Joe Lieberman arranged for him and McCain the Furious to be fully hasbarized in the Land God gave to the Chosen People  "How do we know? The Bible tells us so!"  IMO most of the Izrul devotees are merely cynical politicians courting moneyed Zionists, and Bible thumpers, but IMO Graham actually believes his own crap.

Some of his opinions:

- The US should generate however large a ground  force in Syria and Iraq that would prove necessary to "destroy" IS.  When asked how many Americans would be in that force he mumbles about 10,000 (if I heard him right).  Where would the others come from?  He says from the Turks and the Arabs.  Well, Turkey under Erdogan is an undeclared ally of IS.  Erdogan has just regained a parliamentary majority and has declared his intention to seek a new constitution for Turkey, presumably something grand will be in it for him.  The EU has stated that such a power grab will be a bar to Turkey entering Europe but I doubt if he cares.  The "Arabs?"  Saudi Arabia and Qatar are main supporters of jihadism.  Jordan has its hands full.  Lebanon has no military power worth talking about.  Iraq?  Well, we should know the answer to that by now.  So, what is he talking about?

- Islam.  Graham goes on about the need to fight IS because they want us to "bow down to Islam."  Half the time he does not differentiate between the takfiri wahhabi jihadis and all other Muslims. He clearly sees the Muslim menace in ways that his Israeli friends must relish. 

- Iran.  The Israelis always see their enemies.  They do not see them clearly but they do see them.  For a long time they saw Iraq as their greatest enemy.  We destroyed Iraq for them.  Now their bête noire is Iran, an enemy so fearful that nothing, nothing is to be shrunk from in destroying this enemy.  Their goal is to use "useful idiots" like Graham and his friend McCain "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!"  to lever the Americans into destroying Iran.  Unfortunately for the concept the American people want neither McCain nor Graham.

Russia - "a threat to American dominance"

Trump is starting to look good.  pl   

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article44231415.html

 

Jihadi Apocalypse (A War Game) Turn 2

 

 Situation as of 1 February, 2016 (game time):

The R+6 coalition of forces has expanded its area of control and operations:

- The siege of Aleppo has been lifted by a successful advance of R+6 forces on the Axis of Advance - Jisr ash-Shugur/Idlib/Aleppo (Axis Green).  Priority of Russian fire support and CAS has been a mainstay of advance on this axis.  MRLS and tube artillery greatly facilitated the advance.  A Russian motorized rifle brigade is the backbone of advance on this axis. along with SAA, IRGC, Hizbullah and ethnic and sectarian militias  The advance was coordinated with an offensive of R+6 forces NE to SW from the Aleppo government perimeter on Axis Red.  The jaws of the encirclement met NE of Idlib in a classic kesselschlacht.   Unicorn/jihadi casualties were  heavy in the kessel battle.  There were defections among the jihadis and many fleeing toward the Turkish border.  A pursuit to the border closed the rebel held northern entrance to Aleppo.  The city is now besieged by R+6 forces.  The government of Syria has offered amnesty to FSA members in Aleppo and there have been many surrenders thus far.

- A large redoubt zone now exists from the Lebanese border on the south to the Turkish border north of Latakia and extending inland (east) to Homs/Hama.  (Phase Line Blue)  The north-south M5 highway is in government control as far the M4/M5 junction east of Idlib.   A Russian Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in this area east of the coastal mountains as reinforcement to SAA and militia forces present there.  There was heavy fighting around Homs and Hama.  R+6 casualties were numerous but acceptable with hospitals in Damascus providing second echelon medical care. 

- Russian personnel strength in Syria now is 20,000 organized in a provisional Motorized Rifle Division (-), a regiment of the 7th Guards Airborne Division, artillery units, headquarters, base support troops and two RuAF Regiments.  The Russians have reached the limits of their available naval sea lift and air lift for reinforcement and supply.  They are now seeking to negotiate commercial sea and airlift on a charter basis from several maritime powers.  It is expected that if further lift can be arranged the Russians may further augment their forces in Syria and/or Iraq.

- In January a combined Russian/SAA airmobile operation reinforced Kuweires air base SE of Aleppo.  This was followed by link-up with R+6  troops from the forces that relieved Aleppo.   RuAF units have moved onto the base and are conducting operations from there as well as the coastal bases.

- YPG guerillas crossed the Euphrates in an attempt to move west to link-up with R+6 forces coming north from Kuweires AB.  This effort has been blocked by  repeated Turkish air strikes on the YPG Kurds.  Seven US Army Green Berets embedded with the Kurds have been killed by Turkish air thus far.

- Turkey is seeking to limit USAF use of Incirlik AB while at the same time themselves flying missions against the YPG Kurds and their American advisers from the same base.  The Obama Administration has been accused in European media of using American soldiers as human shields to limit Turkish action against the Kurds.  To this charge they have no answer.

- Iran has 2,000 troops in the fight and Lebanese Hizbullah maintains a similar number on the Lebanese/Syrian mountain border country as well as 500 men with the R+6 forces around Aleppo.

- The Gulf countries continue to support jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq.

- The Gulfie war against the Houthi/Zeidi people of Yemen continues to flounder.  Saudi air continues to kill large numbers of civilians in what amounts to a Douhet style application of terror bombing.   On the ground the Saudis and other Gulfie forces cannot "move" the tribal guerrillas and have suffered heavy losses in the Yemeni mountains east of Sanaa and in Najran Province, Saudi Arabia.  There is considerable unrest in Riyadh among member of the royal family.

- China ??????

- Israel ?????

Game time is now 1 February, 2016.  Instruction - Forecast events in this scenario worldwide through 1 June, 2016 (game time).  Comments will close for Turn 2 on Sunday, 8 November, 2016. (real time) pl

Open Thread - 31 October 2015

Well, pilgrims, I take note of the correctness of TTG's statement that some of the strategery announced by Ash Carter sounds a lot like things that emerged from our last War Game.  i.e., a joint UW task force headquartered near Irbil, enhanced help for Jordan in defending its open border with Iraq against IS, etc.  pl

Linda Lau on the state of Palestinian affairs

October 1, 2015

 

 Yesterday Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas gave his annual speech before the UN General Assembly. It was rumored in advance that he would have a big announcement to make.  What he said was that the Palestinians would no longer abide by the 1993 Oslo Accords since Israel was not living up to the agreement. It was ostensibly a major announcement since the agreement involved security cooperation, collection of taxes and other areas. However, he did not present any sort of plan to back up his statement. Immediately after his speech, the Palestinians saw their flag raised at the UN rose garden alongside the 193 other countries of the world. Since the PA was granted observer status by a UN resolution, it was entitled to have its flag flown. Also, since 2012 the PA had been working diligently to gain membership in various UN organizations such as the International Criminal Court. The Vatican has recognized a Palestinian state and several European parliaments have passed resolutions just short of this.

 

The reality, though, is different. The world has turned its attention to other conflicts in the Middle East such as Syria and Yemen and has pretty much forgotten the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  Some analysts even argue that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu  for example, has still come out of the Iranian nuclear deal with half of what he wanted – he is no longer under any pressure to resume negotiations with the Palestinians since he has created Iran as a huge threat for the world to concentrate on.

 

US Secretary of State said weakly yesterday that he still believes a two state solution was possible. An Israeli scholar Meron Benvenisti, back in the 1970’s and early 1980’s had an imaginary clock that he set to reflect the possibility of a two state solution. I don’t recall that he moved it to exactly midnight but certainly very close. This was at a time when Jerusalem was governed as a united city, admittedly by an Israeli mayor. Palestinians still held most of their land in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank although the settlements were expanding. Israel largely governed through Palestinian mayors of the various municipalities. Conditions were far from perfect and Israeli governance was onerous. But, in 1993 came the Oslo Accords. Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and PLO leader Yasir Arafat shook hands in the Rose Garden of the White House with a beaming President Clinton looking on. The Accords would have made a viable, though not ideal, solution for a Palestinian state. Shortly thereafter, Prime Minister Rabin was assassinated. No other Israeli prime minister since that time has had the will or the power to carry out the accords. Some steps have been taken in terms of security cooperation, but the Israelis have ignored even this whenever they chose to.

 

The Palestinians for their part have never gotten past the Arafat generation. Abbas learned his skills at the side of Arafat and those skills did not involve being the president of something like the PA which is supposed to become a country.  His main focus is ensuring the continuation of his leadership regardless of the numerous ministries and organizations that have been created.  Since he is 80 years old, there is talk of a successor. However, there is little hope of one emerging under current circumstances. There is a critical need for fresh ideas and new ways of governing, but without a chance to develop whether from civil society or charitable organizations (like the one founded by Salam Fayyad that Abbas shut down) or some other venue, there will be serious infighting and a continuation of the same style of leadership.

 

 I believe that the clock is well past midnight in terms of allowing for a two state solution. The settlements are too large and too numerous. Infrastructure has been built that benefits only the settlers and the Palestinians are not even allowed to have access. Much Palestinian land in East Jerusalem has been confiscated and Israeli apartment buildings erected. The economy in the West Bank and Gaza has been nearly destroyed by the lack of ability to move goods and people across borders. Israel uses the tax revenues it collects to parcel out slowly, often for what it sees as good behavior and holds the PA responsible. The economy is seriously damaged.

 

So, the talk of negotiations for a two state solution simply allows Israel to  create more “facts on the ground and the world stands by and doesn’t watch.   

 

CHATTANOOGA SHOOTING: the many faces of Jihad

By Patrick Bahzad

The investigation into yesterday's shooting at Chattanooga has only just begun and it is obviously too early for the officers in charge to make any statement, but this shouldn't prevent a good (first) look at what happened and what it might possibly imply.

Let's be clear about one thing though right away. Not being involved in the investigation, I have definitely more leeway in my take on things and it doesn't really matter that much if I draw the wrong conclusions and make a fool of myself. Still, I'll go out on a limb here and declare yesterday's shooting a Salafi/Jihadi terrorist attack perpetrated by a single gunman (which doesn't mean he was a "lone wolf").

A homegrown Jihadi ?

The only thing unclear at this point is whether Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez saw himself more as an Al Qaeda style "Imghimassi", i.e. a particular type of activist and fighter who chooses to strike from within "enemy lines" (whatever that means when you shoot at a military recruitment centre in a quiet little town in Tennessee), or a follower of the "Caliph" and his "Islamic State".

You might argue it doesn't make much of a difference whether he had pledged allegiance to al-Zawahiri or al-Baghdadi, but it does. Not so much from the point of view of his MO, but for average Joe and even more so Joe Politico, it is important to know which organization - if any -  supported or encouraged Abdulazeez' actions one way or the other.

The level of misinformation, cynical "realpolitik" or just sheer blindness among the political and to a lesser degree military establishment in D.C. is quite staggering. Just a couple of days ago, a nominee to the job of Vice-Chairman to the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated publicly that "organizations having grown around ideology articulated by al Qaeda" were no real threat to the US homeland.

Habbaniya? A tempting objective.

A reminder:  We solved nothing in Iraq.  We broke the fragile British construct that was the Kingdom of Iraq.  We own it but cannot fix it.  What will result ultimately will be; a Shia Iraq from Baghdad south to the Gulf, a Kurdish place in the mountains, and IS stretching across Syria and Iraq.  Are SA, Lebanon and Jordan not next on the Islamist agenda. 

Former RAF Habbaniya was the center of the balance of British presence in Iraq.  Look at the pictures of chapels, cemeteries, and swimming pools for the British troops.  Do the pictures not give you a frisson of deja vue?   If not, you are dull.

Habbaniya is the place we will defend and try to make Sunni tribesmen and Shia cowards into fighters?  The omens for this are not good.

Wherever it is that we will try to do this, we should fortify and defend this place heavily.  otherwise, the IS will see it as a place to bring us to battle, either there or along the logistic trail to the east.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/11/world/middleeast/us-embracing-a-new-approach-on-battling-isis-in-iraq.html

ISIS – A BLACK HOLE IN THE HEART OF THE MIDDLE EAST: Intelligence War and the Counter-Offensive in Ramadi

By Patrick BAHZAD

 

Yesterday, the Iraqi government announced its coming offensive not just on Ramadi, but on the entire Anbar province. To be more precise, it was a Shia militias spokesman who made that announcement even prior to the government. One can only wonder at the ambition of such an enterprise and the disaster that would be a ground operation spearheaded by sectarian troops with a bad reputation and a number of alleged war crimes under their belt. Launching Shia militias into the heartland of Sunni Iraq, under a codename ("Labayka ya Hussein") that can only be resented by many Sunnis in Ramadi, Fallujah and elsewhere in Anbar, doesn't bear the hallmarks of a sound strategy.

Is it a sign of desperation within the Iraqi government, an impulse reaction against harsh American criticism or the realization that of all government troops available, the Shia militias are the only ones with the will and the "guts" to take the fight to the enemy ? Time will tell, but if this is more than a PR-stunt and if there is indeed an actual military effort at taking back large areas under ISIS control, the most likely scenario is one of massive bloodshed, destruction and chaos.

The question that also needs to be asked is how the "Islamic State" is going to react to the government’s preparations. It can probably stomach a defensive fight in Ramadi, even a tactical retreat out of the city, but it can't let the Shia groups take away the initiative and drive back the Caliphate's armies into Iraq's Western desert. Basically, all bets are on as to what might happen next. First reports are already trickling in about a number of suicide attacks by ISIS "Martyrs" against the pro-government forces preparing for battle in the North and East of Ramadi. The writing is on the wall: ISIS won't probably give up Ramadi the way it did Tikrit and the Shia militias have to brace themselves for a tough fight in the days to come.

Be that as it may, the purpose of this piece is not to analyze tactical scenarios for possible developments on the ground, but rather to study a few cases of ISIS operations that are not strictly military, and focus instead on another of the organization’s tactics, as a follow-up to last week's piece about the Caliphate's ground troops. The aim is to give the reader an insight into one of ISIS most potent weapons, one that has a direct bearing on the outcome of a battle, but one that remains mostly in the shadows, only to be seen by its results and effects.

In fact, ISIS' strategy for winning over cities like Ramadi earlier this month, or Mosul last year, is based a lot on what happens in the weeks and months before the actual military attack. This "intelligence war" that ISIS has mastered much more than combined arms in the conventional sense is interesting as so far as it could give a few pointers regarding how the organization might try to react to the government’s offensive that is supposed to start soon.

The use of "sleeper cells" in Ramadi

Infiltration of potential target areas by ISIS members has proven a very powerful tool in the organization’s arsenal. In the conquest of Ramadi in particular, "sleeper cells" have been blamed by Iraqi officials for the chaos and confusion they created among government troops, through disseminating false information and  spreading fear. While not entirely false, the role of so called "sleeper cells"doesn’t explain the rout of Iraqi troops by a force much smaller in numbers.

ISIS can't mobilize and built-up large ground forces prior to an offensive: any suspicious gathering of vehicles or troops outside of a major city would immediately be detected and endanger the whole operation, as the attacking force would likely be targeted by coalition airstrikes. The Caliphate doesn't have the manpower to sustain a campaign of that nature, even though the casualty rate suffered from air attacks doesn't seem to have harmed IS' overall capabilities so far.

What many describe as "sleeper cells" is actually a modular system, combining various types of agents who are being infiltrated into an area of interest. Whether these operatives start collecting information and intelligence in advance, or whether they are activated in the last days or hours before an attack, depends on the situation. They may remain "dormant" for longer periods, like in Baghdad for example, which could hold as many as 2 000 ISIS operatives already.

The Borg speaks again on Frontline and through poor Jen Psaki.

(Irony Alert) Psaki actually looks better this way.  She was on the tube this AM reciting her talking points over and over.  Her eyes appeared filled with fear at the prospect of being considered the "Baghdad Barbara" of the now and present debacle in Iraq.  Well, she is right.  A number of the "little people" like her will be sacrificed in a grand auto da fe, while the bigger wigs escape to re-infiltrate the policy/media Borg.  Jeb Bush's campaign is full of such people, the detritus of earlier "waves" of Borgian thought and efforts, "mushroom shaped cloud,"  etc.

Last evening PBS broadcast a special show designed to sell the idea that Obama's feckless behavior will be altogether responsible for Syria's eventual descent into amirates for IS and maybe Nusra if they don't all swear their allegiance to IS.  According to this production, there was a magic moment at which the secular, blessed Syrian revolutionaries could easily have been sponsored with a modicum of US effort for an easily triumphant victory over the Syrian government, but, no, according to Frontline the best efforts of R2Pers like Ambassador Robert Ford to inspire resistance to Assad were brought to naught by Obama's foolish resistance to ideas of actual revolution.  Ideas based based on outmoded notions of state sovereignty and international law.  No UN resolution to go to war was available because of the dastardly Russians, Chinese and Ugh! Iranians.  Who do they think they are, actual countries?  The speakers in the program were stacked in favor of actual members of the Syrian resistance, like Jouehati and other fellow traveling Borgites. When we got to the great Sarin caper, the program never bothered to mention that the UN, Sy Hersh and many others believe that this attack was part of the larger Borg Information Operations plan.  the only two people with any sense or objectivity on the show were Colonel Bacevich and Joshua Landis. 

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In Iraq, IS yesterday attacked an outpost of the Ya Hussein crowd near Fallujah.  Three car bombs attacked simultaneously from three directions, crossing the rivers on their last journey and sending somewhere between 17 and 30  Ya Husseiners on theirs.  I don't know how many Death Before Everything people took Ramadi from the fleeing.  I hear anything from 123 to several thousand, but this latest attack should point to the simple fact that the north shore of the Euphrates is wide open and there are a number of bridges.  Do you want me to draw you a diagram?

Someone has now pointed out that it took the USMC a long time to capture Ramadi and that the Ya Husseiners are not US  Marines.  It looks to me that Anbar is gone.  pl 

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/May-27/299422-isis-suicide-attacks-in-anbar-province-kill-17-iraqi-troops-army-spokesperson.ashx

http://csis.org/publication/defeat-ramadi-time-transparency-integrity-and-change

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/418912/what-expect-iraqs-attempt-take-back-ramadi-chaos-tom-rogan

http://video.pbs.org/video/2365496883/

 

Judy Miller by Richard Sale

The Jon Stewart Show is the favorite of all the shows my wife and I watch. Stewart’s view of life: his determination to reverence the facts, his intense desire to be free of cant or popular falsehoods,  his determination to be free of fad, his suspicion of the fashionable and the current, his determination to be truthful, no matter what the cost, make him a special delight for us.

Could anyone have deflated the pompous idiocy of the White House Correspondents Dinner with more deftness, or more skin peeling sarcasm than Stewart?  When you have CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer standing there in his tux, facing the TV cameras, saying, “I can’t believe that I am standing here with Jane Fonda," one makes the effort to suppress the urge to puke. (My language is vulgar, I realize, but then, so is Wolfie.)

I know Judith Miller, the disgraced The New York Times journalist. I knew her socially in the 1970s when she was dating Larry Stern, an editor at The Washington Post. We made friends there. Judy is very good looking, a virtue she is very aware of, and which she uses to great effect.  Men adored her. We used to have lunch and trade tid-bits but we were simply friends. She was a very hard worker, very ambitious and productive, and I always respected her until the advent of the 2003 war when she like Hillary Clinton,  were fed, spoonful by spoonful, the bigoted second hand nonsense originating in the white House --- the allegation that Saddam Hussein was developing WMD.  He wasn’t, and had not been since May of 1991, and the “intelligence community” knew it.

The ideal of the journalists with whom I have worked and have respected, is the reverence for facts, especially inconvenient facts.  All of us have tendencies, habits, deep rooted beliefs that, if not corrected prevent us from calmly and critically evaluating the information our sources give us. Reporters are a bit like bees that alight on different blossoms until we can come up with a mixture of truthful facts to be used in a story.

Syria - Iraq Roundup 11 March, 2015

"On March 1, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi ordered Iraqi forces to retake Tikrit and Salahuddin province.

ISIS wasn't making it easy, however. The Sunni extremist group blew up a key bridge near Tikrit, preventing the joint Iraqi forces from using it to cross the Tigris River to approach the city from the east.

Nevertheless, forces have made progress, forcing ISIS fighters to retreat toward the city center from frontline positions, Hashd Al-Shaabi's media office said.

There have been several failed attempts to recapture Tikrit since the second half of 2014. If Iraq regains control of the city, it could mean that retaking Mosul -- a city 10 times bigger -- is possible.

The Tikrit offensive involves around 30,000 fighters."  CNN

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 "ISIS launched a new offensive on the city of Ramadi, west of Baghdad, on Wednesday morning, Faleh al-Issawi, the deputy head of the Anbar Provincial Council, said in a statement.

The city is being attacked "from all directions," with ISIS firing more than 150 mortar rounds and rockets toward it, he said.

Some 17 explosives-laden vehicles have been detonated at various security checkpoints and in the city center, he said.

This is "the fiercest attack by ISIS" seen on Ramadi, al-Issawi said. Iraqi forces have imposed a curfew on the city.

Al-Issawi said air cover by the Iraqi air force was urgently needed. "We need air cover to repel these attacks but did not see the Iraqi air force do anything -- we only saw one airstrike by the coalition hitting one target," he said.

Officials believe "this is an ISIS response to the Tikrit operation that is ongoing in the north," he added."  CNN

**********

"The Islamic State jihadist group launched a major offensive Wednesday to try to capture a strategic town on the Syrian-Turkish border, leaving dozens dead in clashes, a monitor said.

"Fighters from the Islamic State group started a huge assault towards Ras al-Ain and were able to take over a village nearby," the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The offensive is a preemptive strike against Kurdish militia who were planning an attack on the IS-held town of Tal Abyad farther west along the border, Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.

Tal Abyad is an Arab and Kurdish town in the Syrian province of Raqa used by IS jihadists as a gateway from Turkey.

At least 12 fighters from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which control Ras al-Ain and the surrounding villages, were killed in the IS onslaught, according to Abdel Rahman."  Yahoo News

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I have been listening to today's senate hearing on the proposed new AUMF.  It is clear from the action in the hearing that this AUMF would merely augment the 2001 AUMF and not replace it. What that means is that it would be an expansion of the war powers of the government rather than any sort of limitation on them.  IMO the two AUMFs between them add up to a permanent world wide state of war in which the US would feel legally empowered to do just about anything, anywhere.

At one point in the hearing, one of the witnesses said that "they" hope to wrap "this" up within three years. Say what?  There will always be jihadi groups large or small.  That is in the nature of the current awareness in the West of the existence of these groups. They have always existed but now we take note of them and so there will always be justification for renewal of the state of war in these AUMFs.  Senator Isakson of Georgia made reference today to the mini-war against the Barbary Pirates in the presidency of Thomas Jefferson as proof of the unending existential threat from "radical Islam."  Aside from the lack of Islamic fervor in the profitable slave capture and trading operations of the Beys of Tunis, etc., this comparison illustrates the inclination of the Congress to accept a perpetual state of war.  

The three year "sunset" provision in the presently proposed is window dressing.  The AUMF will be easily renewed.  The level of delusion on the part of the administration with regard to possibilities in Syria and Iraq is impressive in its lack of understanding of realities on the ground:

- The process of demonization through information operations (propaganda) of Syria and Iran is well nigh complete.  With the exception of Dempsey's balanced statements with regard to Iran the rest of the senate crew assume that the Reductio ad Hitlerum is appropriate and Kerry/Carter are not much better.  This is what happened in re Qathafi before his ridiculous "conversion" into a friend of the Great Republic (Churchill's phrase).  Over a decades long period we "created" Qathafi as a ten foot tall bogey man when he was really just a pathetic psychopath.  Yes, I am still unrepentant about getting rid of this psychopath.  We then did the same thing to Iraq with all the rubbish about "rape rooms," "mass graves," genocide against the Kurds, Iraqi nuclear weapons, etc.  The same "job' has now been done on the Syrian government and Iran.  Qui bono?

- The present AUMF structure does not mention the desire of Turkey and the Syrian rebels to have the US fight the Syrian government.  Several senators expressed disappointment with that and urged the US to intervene in Syria.

- They were reassured by Dempsey et al that despite this lacuna in the AUMFs the intention is to wipe out IS in Iraq and Syria and then give our full support to the unicorn army of "New Syrian Forces" (their term) in wiping out the present Syrian government.

- Dempsey made it clear once again that the battle for Tikrit and its aftermath would be a turning point in the future of US efforts in Syria and Iraq.  He says that if the; Iraqi Army (mostly Shia), Iranian Pasdaran, Iraq Shia militia in government service (largely former Shia police murder squad members), and Sunni Arab tribesmen can take Tikrit, then their behavior toward the largely Sunni residents of the area will be determinative in the matter of the possibility of a multi-confessional Iraq as it once was.

At the same time, with the exception of Senator Kaine, the level of commitment on the part of these senators to assertion of their supposed power in formulating US foreign policy was absurd.  As Kerry told them, no Congress has ever sought to wrest control of foreign policy from the Executive.  This Congress has clearly sought to do that.  IMO this effort has largely been at the bidding of a foreign power that is an interested party in US ME policy. pl

http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/11/world/iraq-isis-tikrit-duplicate-2/

http://news.yahoo.com/major-assault-syria-border-town-ras-al-ain-090253980.html 

The Head of al Azhar Issues a Condemnation of ISIL's Execution of Lt. al Kasaesbeh

*

Adam L. Silverman

Reuters is reporting that Ahmed al Tayeb, the Grand Sheik of al Azhar University has not only condemned ISIL's burning of Lt. al Kasaesbeh, but has stated that "such a form of killing, is abhorrent under Islam, no matter the justification". In fact Sheikh al Tayeb went so far as to state that those who committed such acts deserved to be: "killed, crucified or to have their limbs amputated.

Al Azhar is the oldest, continuously operating Sunni Muslim school of higher education. It will be interesting to see exactly what, if any, effect Sheikh Tayeb's stance has. Reuters' report also includes reaction from senior Sunni clerical authorities in other parts of the Muslim world, both Arab and non-Arab. Click over to read the whole report.

* al Azhar Crest was found here: http://www.cicot.or.th/2009/images/stories/200px-Al-Azhar_University_logo_svg_png%20(PNG%20Image,%20200x287%20pixels)_1268135062853.jpg

Let's treat Kasaesbeh's death as an opportunity...

 
Lieutenant Kasaesbeh death was a terrible thing.  IS went to a lot of trouble to stage manage his "trial" and murder.  we should not let the production values of the video obscure the simple truth that IS and its medieval fanatics are the enemies of right thinking people pf all nationalities and faiths.  I do not agree that their fortunes are trending downward.  If left to fester across the world they will make more and more trouble and commit more unspeakable crimes everywhere they can reach.

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McCain was on the tube today with his usual nonsensical statements concerning the "need" to crush the Syrian government in response to IS executions of prisoners.  Perhaps he has missed the fact that it is IS who has executed these prisoners and not the Syrian government. It seems that this is an obsession that he and his office wife will die with.  The neocons and their foreign friends have a lot to answer for in this particular craziness of American policy.

IMO, there should now be formed a coalition of anti-IS and Nusra that consists of anyone who will fight the jihadis.  I mean really fight, not just talk about forming an "army" of Syrian unicorns who might or might not ever amount to anything.

Jordan, The US, Britain, France, the Syrian government, Hizbullah in Syria, the "nine brigade new Iraqi army," Iran, Pesh Merga, the other Kurds, (the ones the Turks hate so much) the UAE air force, cats and dogs (you name it).  I would become a co-belligerent with anyone who will fight the jihadis,  Anyone!

I do not mention Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait because IMO they lack "the right stuff."  I do not mention Egypt because IMO their military has little combat value.  They are really asphalt soldiers.

Jordan's forces are quite small in this time long after the treaty with Israel.  They will need a lot of help logistically, but IMO the US will have to accept that there will must be a conventional US ground component in the fight.  If there is not, then this war will last a long, long time.  There is a sizable US force in Kuwait.  They can be moved NW on the Tapline Road to Azraq Air base in Jordan.  More troops can be air transported to that base.  A supply line can be opened through the port of Aqaba.

Let us get on with it.  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/04/us-mideast-crisis-killing-idUSKBN0L71XE20150204

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Jordanian_Army#Current_Command_Structure