Sic Semper Tyrannis

A few thoughts - 24 April 2020

1.  IMO the US Navy will be doing a good thing if it persuades Trump to restore Captain Crozier to command of USS Theodore Roosevelt.  He did a very foolish thing by appealing to the whole wide world to support his position, but he did have the best interest of the ship's company in mind and as he said, we are not at war in the Pacific.   This would also be a humane decision on the part of the navy toward an officer in command, something unusual for them.

2.  IMO the medico bureaucrat academicians who insist that their group think about how to stop a pandemic are going to be discredited as it becomes clear that COVID-19 is wildly infectious but at the same time not very fatal except for the old, infirm and others compromised in health.  That would include HIV/AIDS sufferers.  You don't hear much about that, but IMO that is because such people are typically members of the LGBTQ "community" and therefore members of a protected group.  In pursuit of the power of policy dictation the doctor philosopher kings have contributed mightily to the near death of the greatest world economy in history (ours).  Let us hope the more sensible state governors can do enough to remedy this disaster to bring back some measure of prosperity.  I hope that Trump realizes that he does not have constitutional power over the governors.  As I have previously written he would have to declare states he targeted to be in rebellion or say that they had lost the power to govern themselves in order to have a claim to that sort of power.

3.  US foreign policy in the greater ME remains the shambles that Zionist and/or neocon infiltration of government and manipulation of election funding have made it.   There is little difference in responsibility  for this in the two major political parties.  As a result of Trump's continuation of the Israel inspired policy of meddling in the affairs of the Islamic culture continent the US now finds itself in a position in which policies of domination have caused us to have a thousand or so US military "hostages" scattered across NE Syria and all over Iraq where they are completely vulnerable to attack from Iran and its allies.  

4.  This potential hostage posture is a major inhibition to US freedom of action in the Gulf where Iranian aggressiveness is targeted toward a withdrawal of the US Navy from the Gulf.  IMO such a forced withdrawal caused by a minor power like Iran because we are afraid to fight would be a major milestone in the decline of America's power in the world.  Our enemies would rejoice.  IMO the navy can easily defeat any Iranian enemy but the hostage situation in Syria, and Iraq is a major impediment to naval action.  We should get out of those two countries. We should not have been there in the first place.   I am clearly on record about that from 2001 onward.  In the case of Afghanistan the hinge of fate swung in 2009 with Obama's disastrous decision to let the COIN generals persuade him to try to build a new and modern Afghanistan.  The resulting state has expenses for its security forces that are greater than its GDP.

5.  Some constitutional mechanism must be developed in the US for forcing the retirement from office of old people who are judged to be demented.  The ice cream interview comes to mind.  pl

 

Pushing for a third Iraq war - TTG

"WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to plan for an escalation of American combat in Iraq, issuing a directive last week to prepare a campaign to destroy an Iranian-backed militia group that has threatened more attacks against American troops. But the United States’ top commander in Iraq has warned that such a campaign could be bloody and counterproductive and risks war with Iran. In a blunt memo last week, the commander, Lt. Gen. Robert P. White, wrote that a new military campaign would also require thousands more American troops be sent to Iraq and divert resources from what has been the primary American military mission there: training Iraqi troops to combat the Islamic State."

"The Pentagon directive and General White’s response — both classified internal military communications — were described by several American officials with direct knowledge of their contents. The exchange comes amid a simmering fight inside the Trump administration over policy toward Iran and the course of America’s war in Iraq, which began just over 17 years ago. Some top officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser, have been pushing for aggressive new action against Iran and its proxy forces — and see an opportunity to try to destroy Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq as leaders in Iran are distracted by the pandemic crisis in their country."  (NYT)

————

Just what we and everyone in the region needs… another Iraq war. Al Masdar News reports that SecDef Esper has approved the new campaign or at least the planning for it. My fear is that Pompeo, O’brien and all the other neocon rat bastards have cracked the code on getting Trump to go along with this madness by lavishing him with the praise and adoration he so desperately desires. It reminds me of an old Abbott and Costello skit. “You bet you life me stinkah.”

TTG

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5MmxybEBM8 (You bet you life me stinkah.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/world/middleeast/pentagon-iran-iraq-militias-coronavirus.html

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-military-ordered-to-plan-for-major-escalation-with-iran-in-iraq-report/

The ME may yet destroy Trump

President Trump will easily be acquitted in the senate trial.  This may occur this week and there will probably be no witnesses called.  That will be an additional victory for him and will add to the effect of his trade deal victories and the general state of the US economy.  These factors should point to a solid victory in November for him and the GOP in Congress.

Ah!  Not so fast the cognoscenti may cry out.  Not so fast.  The Middle East is a graveyard of dreams:

1.  Iraq.  Street demonstrations in Iraq against a US alliance are growing more intense.  There may well have been a million people in Muqtada al-Sadr's extravaganza.  Shia fury over the death of Soleimani is quite real.  Trump's belief that in a contest of the will he will prevail over the Iraqi Shia is a delusion, a delusion born of his narcissistic personality and his unwillingness to listen to people who do not share his delusions.  A hostile Iraqi government and street mobs would make life unbearable for US forces there. 

2.  Syria.  The handful of American troops east and north of the Euphrates "guarding" Syrian oil from the Syrian government are in a precarious position with the Shia Iraqis at their backs across the border and a  hostile array of SAA, Turks, jihadis and potentially Russians to their front and on their flanks.

3.  Palestine.  The "Deal of the Century" is approaching announcement.  From what is known of its contours, the deal will kill any remaining prospects for Palestinian statehood and will relegate all Palestinians (both Israeli citizens and the merely occupied) to the status of helots forever .  Look it up.  In return the deal will offer the helotry substantial bribes in economic aid money.  Trump evidently continues to believe that Palestinians are untermenschen .  He believe they will sell their freedom. The Palestinian Authority has already rejected this deal.  IMO their reaction to the imposition of this regime is likely to be another intifada.

Some combination of the disasters that may emerge from these ME factors might well turn Trump's base against him and this result would be entirely of his own making.  pl

The Strike - TTG

It’s been a good 48 hours since Iran’s missile strike at Ayn al-Assad and Erbil. Both Washington and Tehran stared into the abyss and did not like what they saw. We averted a full fledged shooting war through a little skill, a lot of fear and a healthy dose of luck. I’m sad to say that the skill was Iranian, particularly the skill of the IRGC Aerospace Force.

There is still no Western consensus on the number of missiles fired or what type were fired. Based on various reports, the IRGC Aerospace Force launched anywhere from ten to twenty two missiles. Most of the missiles were solid fueled one stage Fateh type SRBMs (short range ballistic missiles), either Fateh-313 or Zolfaghar. The Fateh-313 became operational in 2015 and has a 500 km range and is touted as being highly accurate due to Iranian advances in satellite guidance systems made in the last fifteen years. The Zolfaghar, developed from the Fateh-313, has a range of up to 800 km was introduced in 2016. Both these SRBMs have an estimated CEP (circular error probable) of 100 meters. In addition to the Fateh-313 or Zolfaghar SRBMs, a smaller number of Qiam-1 SRBMs were fired, probably at Erbil. The Qiam-1 is a liquid fuel SRBM with a range of 800 km, a payload of 750 kg and a CEP of 500 meters. The IRGC fired both Zolfagars and Qaiam-1s into the Deir ez-Zor region of Syria in June 2017 targeting IS jihadis. All these SRBMs are roughly equivalent to Russia’s Iskandar SRBM.

A CEP of either 100 or 500 meters is not pinpoint accuracy. But the Pentagon is saying that Iran intentionally missed US troops at the bases. This demonstrates one thing… Iran has a high degree of confidence in her missiles. You don’t launch  missiles over hundreds of miles, with the intention of deliberately missing your enemy’s troops, unless you are really confident in your missiles’ CEP. Last year’s DIA study on “Iranian Military Power” had this to say on the precision of Iranian missile forces.

“The use of improved guidance technology and maneuverability during the terminal phase of flight enables these missiles to be used more effectively against smaller targets, including specific military facilities and ships at sea,” the Defense Intelligence Agency said in its most recent assessment of Iran’s military. “These enhancements could reduce the miss-distance of some Iranian missiles to as little as tens of meters, potentially requiring fewer missiles to damage or destroy an intended target and broadening Iran’s options for missile use.”  (DIA)

Even so, I seriously doubt the IRGC made a special effort to not kill or injure Americans. Although it was not the primary objective of the strike, they certainly wouldn’t have cried over our casualties. However, Brigadier General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force did say during a press conference today that “the strikes were not meant to cause fatalities. We intended to deliver a blow to the enemy’s military machine.” He also said he fired only thirteen missiles, but prepared several hundred for launch. He was clearly not worried about some level of US casualties, not with the possibility of hundreds of missiles. He definitely got our attention and with only thirteen missiles and a threat to take the crazy train all the way to Hell if that's what we wanted. Even General Milley said he believed the attack was meant to be deadly. At least he got that right.

I was shocked that not one Iranian missile was intercepted. It appears CENTCOM did not even have a capability to intercept missiles at the Ayn al-Assad Air Base. That is military incompetence. A slew of officers should be relieved for that egregious incompetence including the CINC CENTCOM. No wonder the neocon wonder boys in the Pentagon and White House decided not to join the dance in the wee hours after the Iranian strike. Talk about scared straight.

Iran is not done. As General Hajizadeh said in today’s briefing, the strike “was the starting point of a great operation.” The Iranians and their regional allies are controlling the tempo of operations to their advantage. They will now fight us on their terms to pursue their immediate goal of removing our forces and influence from Iraq and Syria. As Colonel Lang said, we should get out of Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan and not stop there. We need to leave Israel, Jordan Saudi Arabia and Lebanon as well. 

TTG

https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/Iran_Military_Power_LR.pdf

https://southfront.org/top-irgc-commander-confirms-iranian-missile-strike-was-aimed-at-military-machine-not-troops/

Macgregor got it part right on Carlson's show last night

Colonel (ret.) Douglas Macgregor was on Tucker Carlson's show last night.  He is a smart man.  Tucker is a smart man. Carlson's show is an outpost of sanity in a neocon run US foreign policy establishment (the Borg).  Carlson deserves the ratings he gets.  I hope those will insulate him from the trepidation that his honesty must inspire in the Murdoch brothers.  The rest of Foxnews is much like a clown car show with the clowns clamoring for the approbation of the White House in their eagerness for a neocon war of conquest in the ME.  Some people never learn.  the last 20 years of disaster in the face of Islamic resistance to Western cultural imperialism have taught them nothing.

Trump started his term as an empty headed business hustler eager to make deals wherever he could and who correctly did not see much of anything to be gained by fighting endlessly all over the Islamic World to impose Israel's 1% policy of eliminating all possible threats from the Muslims.

Trump offered Iran peace negotiations in his post Iran strike speech?  No.  He did not.  He once again offered them the opportunity to surrender to Israeli demands relayed to them by the US.

Now, he is transformed into just another neocon, in fact the neocon in chief.  His foreign policy team is run by neocons and bootlickers who fear Pompeo's scorn.  The Defense part of that team is dominated by the Pompous one and his West Point classmate Esper at DoD.  General Milley and the other present chiefs of staff are carefully chosen to eliminate the possibility of "push-back" from the military. I retract anything bad I ever said about Joe Dunford.  I wish he were still here.

Trump is following the neocon/Ziocon line now.  He evidently believes any silly thing they tell him.  I understand that he has said that Soleimani was engaged in beheading Christians.  Well, pilgrims, if you look below about three posts you  will see a video of Soleimani and al-Muhandis being mourned by Christian clergy and congregations in Aleppo.  Of course, you actually have to understand some Arabic to get that from the video.  These Christians mourn these men as being among those who came to fight the Sunni jihadis at Aleppo.

Macgregor rightly understands that there is no there, there for the USA in the Middle East and Central Asia.  He correctly understands that to try to sort out all the intra-regional ethnic and sectarian rivalries is a fool's errand.  He correctly advocates complete withdrawal from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as does Tulsi Gabbard who was on the same show.

What Macgregor got wrong is that he wants to remain engaged in; Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the GCC generally.  Well, Doug, there is no there, there either.  There is no Soviet threat.  The USA is a net oil and gas exporter.  The Iranians have enemies and quarrels with the Saudis and the Israelis, but, so what?  We are not Israelis.  Neither are we Saudis.

You want to stay engaged in Yemen?  the country is full of nasty little hill men who live to fight.  This is a Saudi problem.

Let all the crazed creatures of that part of the world fight it out.  along the way they will come to muddled partial solutions that will last until the next round of hostility begins.  Tant pis pour eux.  pl

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-iraq-iran-donald-trump-leave-war

Soleimani and Al-Muhandis are being mourned in Aleppo churches

(Tehran Armenian Cathedral)

Mike Pompeo was on the TeeVee today scoffing at those who do not agree with him and the Ziocon inspired "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran.  It must be a terrible thing for intelligence analysts of integrity and actual Middle East knowledge and experience to have to try to brief him and Trump, people who KNOW, KNOW from some superior source of knowledge that Iran is the worst threat to the world since Nazi Germany, or was it Saddam's Iraq that was the worst threat since "beautiful Adolf?"

The "maximum pressure" campaign is born of Zionist terrors, terrors deeply felt.  It is the same kind of campaign that has been waged by the Israelis against the Palestinians and all other enemies great and small.  This approach does not seem to have done much for Israel.  The terrors are still there.

Someone sent me the news tape linked below from Aleppo in NW Syria.  I have watched it a number of times.  You need some ability in Arabic to understand it.  The tape was filmed in several Christian churches in Aleppo where these two men (Soleimani and al-Muhandis) are described from the pulpit and in the street as "heroic martyr victims of criminal American state terrorism."  Pompeo likes to describe Soleimani as the instigator of "massacre" and "genocide" in Syria.  Strangely (irony) the Syriac, Armenian Uniate and Presbyterian ministers of the Gospel in this tape do not see him and al-Muhandis that way.  They see them as men who helped to defend Aleppo and its minority populations from the wrath of Sunni jihadi Salafists like ISIS and the AQ affiliates in Syria.  They see them and Lebanese Hizbullah as having helped save these Christians by fighting alongside the Syrian Army, Russia and other allies like the Druze and Christian militias.

It should be remembered that the US was intent on and may still be intent on replacing the multi-confessional government of Syria with the forces of medieval tyranny.  Everyone who really knows anything about the Syrian Civil War knows that the essential character of the New Syrian Army, so beloved by McCain, Graham and the other Ziocons was always jihadi and it was always fully supported by Wahhabi Saudi Arabia as a project in establishing Sunni triumphalism.  They and the self proclaimed jihadis of HTS (AQ) are still supported in both Idlib and western Aleppo provinces by the Saudis and the present Islamist and neo-Ottoman government of Turkey.

Well pilgrims, there are Christmas trees in the newly re-built Christian churches of Aleppo and these, my brothers and sisters in Christ remember who stood by them in "the last ditch."

"Currently there are at least 600 churches and 500,000–1,000,000 Christians in Iran." wiki below.  Are they dhimmis?  Yes, but they are there.  There are no churches in Saudi Arabia, not a single one and Christianity is a banned religion.  These are our allies?

Mr. Jefferson wrote that "he feared for his country when he remembered that God is just."  He meant Virginia but I fear in the same way for the United States.  pl

https://twitter.com/i/status/1214223383635857409

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_Iran

Trump moves to unite the Middle East! (irony)

Teevee coverage of the recent events in the ME has been predictable.  Those who hated Trump continue to hate him, etc. 

A few observations:

1. I had hoped that Trump's decision to kill an Iranian general engaged in a diplomatic mission (among other things) while the man was on the soil of a supposed ally of the US was something Trump pulled out of his fundament either inspired by war movies or on the recommendation of "our greatest ally" but I am informed that in fact some idiot in the DoD included this option in the list of possibilities that was briefed to the CinC in Florida.  The decision process in such matters requires that when options are demanded by the CinC the JCS prepares a list supported for each option by fully formulated documentation that enables the president to approve one (or none) and then sign the required operational order.  Trump himself chose the death option.  I would hold General Milley (CJCS) personally responsible for not striking this option from the list before it reached the CinC. 

2.  The Iranians are a subtle people.  IMO they will bide their time whilst working out the "bestest" way to inflict some injury on the US and/or Israel.  When the retaliation comes it will be imaginative and painful.

3.  Trump is  now threatening the Iraqis with severe sanctions if they try to enforce their parliamentary decree against the future presence of foreign (US mostly) troops on their soil.  IMO a refusal to leave risks a substantial Shia (at least) uprising against the US forces in Iraq.  We have around 5,500 people there now spread across the country in little groups engaged in logistics, intelligence and training missions.  They are extremely vulnerable.  There are something like 150 marines in the embassy.  There are also a small number of US combat forces in Syria east and north of the Euphrates river.  These include a battalion of US Army National Guard mechanized troops "guarding" Syria's oil from Syria's own army and whatever devilment the Iranians might be able to arrange.

4.  This is an untenable logistical situation.  Supply and other functions require a major airfield close to Baghdad.  We have Balad airbase and helicopter supply and air support from there into Baghdad is possible from there but may become hazardous.  Iraq is a big country.  It is a long and lonely drive from Kuwait for re-supply from there or evacuation through there.  The same thing is true of the desert route to Jordan.

5.  Trump's strategery appears to be based on the concept that the Iraqis will submit to our imperial demands.  "We will see."  pl

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-strike-live-updates/2020/01/06/3b5451f2-3024-11ea-9313-6cba89b1b9fb_story.html?rand=4

There Will Be Blood by Larry C Johnson

America's naive belief in the miracle of the assassination fantasy, especially when applied in the Middle East, reminds me of an Alzheimer's patient who believes in magic beans but fails to remember that the beans never sprout. We keep on planting the same seed and look anxiously for a beanstalk that never sprouts.

Killing Qassem Soleimani is the latest meaningless chapter in this blood soaked narrative of revenge and retribution against a "bad" guy. Killing a "bad" guy makes us feel proud and provides the emotional equivalent of a sugar rush. But there is no compelling evidence that these killings actually advance the cause of peace or coerce the other bad guys into hiding in a cave and praying that we go away.

Let me take you for a walk down memory lane. Let's start in Beirut in 1982--that's 38 years ago. In other words, if you are younger than 45 this is likely to be new to you.

The threat of General Soleimani - TTG

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States had “clear, unambiguous” intelligence that a top Iranian general was planning a significant campaign of violence against the United States when it decided to strike him, the top U.S. general said on Friday, warning Soleimani’s plots “might still happen.”

Army General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a small group of reporters “we fully comprehend the strategic consequences” associated with the strike against Qassem Soleimani, Tehran’s most prominent military commander.

But he said the risk of inaction exceeded the risk that killing him might dramatically escalate tensions with Tehran. “Is there risk? Damn right, there’s risk. But we’re working to mitigate it,” Milley said from his Pentagon office. (Reuters)

—————

This is pretty much in line with Trump’s pronouncement that our assassination of Soleimani along with Iraqi General Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was carried out to prevent a war not start one. Whatever information was presented to Trump painted a picture of imminent danger in his mind. What did the Pentagon see that was so imminent? 

Well first let’s look at the mindset of the Pentagon concerning our presence in Iraq and Syria. These two recent quotes from Brett McGurk sums up that mindset. 

"If we leave Iraq, that will just increase further the running room for Iran and Shia militia groups and also the vacuum that will see groups like ISIS fill and we'll be right back to where we were. So that would be a disaster."

"It's always been Soleimani's strategic game... to get us out of the Middle East. He wants to see us leave Syria, he wants to see us leave Iraq... I think if we leave Iraq after this, that would just be a real disastrous outcome..."

McGurk played a visible role in US policy in Iraq and Syria under Bush, Obama and Trump. Now he’s an NBC talking head and a lecturer at Stanford. He could be the poster boy for what many see as a neocon deep state. He’s definitely not alone in thinking this way.

So back to the question of what was the imminent threat. Reuters offers an elaborate story of a secret meeting of PMU commanders with Soleimani on a rooftop terrace on the Tigris with a grand view of the US Embassy on the far side of the river.

—————

“In mid-October, Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani met with his Iraqi Shi’ite militia allies at a villa on the banks of the Tigris River, looking across at the U.S. embassy complex in Baghdad, and instructed them to step up attacks on U.S. targets in the country”

“Two militia commanders and two security sources briefed on the gathering told Reuters that Soleimani instructed his top ally in Iraq, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and other powerful militia leaders to step up attacks on US targets using sophisticated new weapons provided by Iran.”

“Soleimani’s plans to attack US forces aimed to provoke a military response that would redirect Iraqis' anger towards Iran to the US, according to the sources briefed on the gathering, Iraqi Shi’ite politicians and government officials close to Iraq PM Adel Abdul Mahdi.”

“At the Baghdad villa, Soleimani told the assembled commanders to form a new militia group of low-profile paramilitaries - unknown to the United States - who could carry out rocket attacks on Americans housed at Iraqi military bases.” (Reuters)

—————

And what were those sophisticated new weapons provided by Iran? They were 1960s Chinese designed 107mm multiple rocket launcher technology. These simple but effective rocket launchers were mass produced by the Soviet Union, Iran, Turkey and Sudan in addition to China. They’ve been used in every conflict since then. The one captured outside of the K1 military base seems to be locally fabricated, but used Iranian manufactured rockets. 

Since when does the PMU have to form another low profile militia unit? The PMU is already composed of so many militia units it’s difficult to keep track of them. There’s also nothing low profile about the Kata’ib Hizbollah, the rumored perpetrators of the K1 rocket attack. They’re as high profile as they come. 

Perhaps there’s something to this Reuters story, but to me it sounds like another shithouse rumor. It would make a great scene in a James Bond movie, but it still sounds like a rumor.

There’s another story put out by The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Although it also sounds like a scene form a James Bond movie, I think it sounds more convincing than the Reuters story. 

—————

Delegation of Arab tribes met with “Soleimani” at the invitation of “Tehran” to carry out attacks against U.S. Forces east Euphrates

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights learned that a delegation of the Arab tribes met on the 26th of December 2019, with the goal of directing and uniting forces against U.S. Forces, and according to the Syrian Observatory’s sources, that meeting took place with the commander of the al-Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassim Soleimani, who was assassinated this morning in a U.S. raid on his convoy in Iraq. the sources reported that: “the invitation came at the official invitation of Tehran, where Iran invited Faisal al-al-Aazil, one of the elders of al-Ma’amra clan, in addition to the representative of al-Bo Asi clan the commander of NDF headquarters in Qamishli Khatib al-Tieb, and the Sheikh of al-Sharayin, Nawaf al-Bashar, the Sheikh of Harb clan, Mahmoud Mansour al-Akoub, ” adding that: “the meeting discussed carrying out attacks against the American forces and the Syria Democratic Forces.”

Earlier, the head of the Syrian National Security Bureau, Ali Mamlouk, met with the security committee and about 20 Arab tribal elders and Sheikhs in al-Hasakah, at Qamishli Airport Hall on the 5th of December 2019, where he demanded the Arab tribes to withdraw their sons from the ranks of the Syria Democratic Forces.  (SOHR)

—————

I certainly don’t automatically give credence to anything Rami sends out of his house in Coventry. I give this story more credibility only because that is exactly what I would do if Syria east of the the Euphrates was my UWOA (unconventional warfare operational area). This is exactly how I would go about ridding the area of the “Great Satan” invaders and making Syria whole again. The story also includes a lot of named individuals. This can be checked. This morning Colonel Lang told me some tribes in that region have a Shia history. Perhaps he can elaborate on that. I’ve read in several places that Qassim Soleimani knew the tribes in Syria and Iraq like the back of his hand. This SOHR story makes sense. If Soleimani was working with the tribes of eastern Syria like he worked with the tribes and militias of Iraq to create the al-Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbi, it no doubt scared the bejeezus out of the Pentagon and endangered their designs for Iraq and Syria.

So, Qassim Soleimani, the Iranian soldier, the competent and patient Iranian soldier, was a threat to the Pentagon’s designs… a serious threat. But he was a long term threat, not an imminent threat. And he was just one soldier.The threat is systemic and remains. The question of why, in the minds of Trump and his generals, Soleimani had to die this week is something I will leave for my next post. 

A side note on Milley: Whenever I see a photo of him, I am reminded of my old Brigade Commander in the 25th Infantry Division, Colonel Nathan Vail. They both have the countenance of a snapping turtle. One of the rehab transfers in my rifle platoon once referred to him as “that J. Edgar Hoover looking mutha fuka.” I had to bite my tongue to keep from breaking out in laughter. It would have been unseemly for a second lieutenant to openly enjoy such disrespect by a PV2… and a troublemaking PV2 at that. God bless PV2 Webster, where ever you are.

TTG

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-usa-milley/top-u-s-general-soleimani-was-planning-campaign-of-violence-against-u-s-idUSKBN1Z222T

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-soleimani-insight/inside-the-plot-by-irans-soleimani-to-attack-u-s-forces-in-iraq-idUSKBN1Z301Z

http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=152158

"Latest situation in foreign forces deployment in Syria" Yeni Safak

"The U.S. forces evacuated 16 bases and military posts during Operation Peace Spring and returned to six bases as the operation was paused.

The U.S. army strengthened its military presence in Syria’s northeastern border and oil fields.

With five bases and military posts in Hasakah province, the U.S. forces are conducting efforts to set up two other military posts in Qahtaniyah town and Himo village in Qamishli city.

The U.S. aims to both secure oil fields in Hasakah and strengthen its presence on the Turkish border with the military posts.

The U.S. forces are currently deployed at 11 bases and military posts, including five in Hasakah, four in Deir ez-Zor and two in Raqqa.

They also carry out efforts to set up two new bases in Deir ez-Zor."  Yebi Safak

-----------

Yes, this newspaper is pro-Erdo but this looks like a useful map to lay out where everyone is at present.  The map does not extend far enough south to include the US roadblocking position at Al Tanf on the Syrian/Iraqi border but other than that- pretty complete.  pl

 

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/latest-situation-in-foreign-forces-deployment-in-syria-3507700

Our Embassy in Baghdad - TTG

I could never fully comprehend the logic behind our modern monument to imperialistic hubris that is our outsized Embassy in Baghdad. One would have to be a true believer in our God ordained manifest destiny to admire that monstrosity. Those types do exist. At one time the management coven at Defense HUMINT planned on establishing a massive operating base in that Embassy to control operations throughout the region. It was going to be Defense HUMINT forward... an outpost of the empire.

That embassy compound is once again becoming the focal point of our Mideast empire. Events of the last few days have seen to that. Last weekend, in response to a  rocket attack on a base outside Kirkuk that left one US contractor dead and four US servicemen wounded, we launched drone strikes on five Iraqi PMU outposts in Iraq and Syria near Abukamal killing 25 members and wounding scores more of the Kata’ib Hezbollah brigades of the PMU. 

We blamed Iran and the Kata’ib Hezbollah for the rocket attack near Kirkuk. That may be true, but the Kata’ib Hezbollah is not some rogue militia controlled out of Teheran. It is an integral part of the PMU, its 46th and 47th brigades and has been for years. The PMU is an integral part of the Iraqi military and has been for years. The PMU played a major role in defeating IS in both Iraq and Syria. Our attack on the Kata’ib Hezbollah outposts was an attack on the Iraqi military and government. We informed PM Abdul-Mahdi of our intended attacks. Abdul-Mahadi warned us not to do it, but, of course, we conducted the attacks despite his warning. We were proud of the attacks. The Pentagon even released footage of the attacks. It was supposed to be a clear message to Teheran.

Unfortunately for us, the message was also heard by Iraqis. After the funerals of many of the victims of our attacks on the PMU outposts, a large crowd of protestors headed for the US Embassy in the Green Zone. For weeks prior to this, Iraqi security forces kept protestors from entering the Green Zone and approaching the US Embassy. Not this time. The crowds, including mourners fresh from the funerals of their family members and many PMU soldiers, unarmed but in uniform, poured into the Green Zone right to the gates of the Embassy itself. A reception area was entered and burned. Iraqi security forces of the PrimeMinister’s Counter Terrorism Command were among the protestors. I surmise that PM Abdul-Mahdi was sending his own message back to the US.

Today, the PMU has told its troops to leave the vicinity of the Embassy as directed by the PM. Protests and rock throwings continue, but the Iraqi security forces are keeping a lid on the protestors more aggressive actions. The US sent an additional hundred Marines into the Embassy compound last night and appears to be also sending a battalion from the 82nd Airborne to the Embassy. (That shows just how oversized this Embassy is.)

For weeks, it was Iranian consulates and facilities that bore the brunt of Iraqi popular unrest. Iran reacted with restraint. With our lethal attacks on the Kata’ib Hezbollah, we changed that. Pompeo, Esper and Trump are keeping up the trash talking. Threatening Iran by killing Iraqis… whose ass was that brilliant diplomatic strategy pulled from?

I recommend an essay written by Haidar Sumeri on Sunday, before the protestors descended on the US Embassy, entitled “American Strikes in Iraq Have Just Made a Bad Situation Much Worse.” Sumeri is a long time commentator on regional issues, especially Iraqi security issues. His analysis is especially cogent given the events of the last two days. His writings may be worth following as this situation unfolds. 

TTG

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31651/u-s-strikes-iranian-proxy-force-bases-in-iraq-and-syria-following-deadly-rocket-attack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtRSIl2MAoQ  (Al Jazeera coverage of the protestors at the US Embassy with interesting commentary)

https://1001iraqithoughts.com/2019/12/30/american-strikes-in-iraq-have-just-made-a-bad-situation-much-worse/

Mother Jones interview in 2007

"Mother Jones: Were we to withdraw from Iraq, what would be a reasonable time frame for doing so?

Colonel W. Patrick Lang: The question is whether or not you withdraw under combat conditions, as we did from Vietnam over a period of three and a half years. Everybody left in March of ’73. I was on the last scheduled flight. There was a period of two years when it was real quiet. The only Americans in the country were about 1,000 guys attached to the embassy. Then the North Vietnamese decided that the U.S. Congress was serious when it passed legislation forbidding any further assistance in South Vietnam. Then they went on the offensive and captured the country. I got to Vietnam the first time in March of ’68, and early in ’69 Nixon announced that we were going to withdraw in stages, what people call Vietnamization. We took the force down in about 20 phases. It was carefully worked out what would leave when and what parts of the country we would leave. That was under combat conditions. We took about 20,000 kills over the period of the evacuation and they lost a lot of people. So you have that possibility or you have the possibility of a largely administrative withdrawal. In Vietnam we turned most everything we had over the three and a half years of the withdrawal to the South Vietnamese army and air force. They lost it all to the North Vietnamese and the North Vietnamese made a lot of money off that. For about 10 years they sold spare parts and pieces of helicopters and things like that all over the world. There’s a lot of stuff in Iraq that the Army and the Marine Corps can’t afford to leave there. There are all these Abrams tanks. These tanks are unbelievably expensive. The Bradley fighting vehicles and a whole variety of artillery pieces need to be brought back to the States.

MJ: So we wouldn’t be likely to turn these pieces of equipment over to the Iraqis?"  Mother Jones

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The Spanish commenter "Elora Danan" (a pseudonym) found this interview that I did with "Mother Jones" in 2007.  It covers a wide variety of topics concerning the war in Iraq.  It was unusual for me to agree to be interviewed by a publication like "Mother Jones."  I must have liked the interviewer.  pl

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2007/10/colonel-w-patrick-lang-retired-us-military-intelligence/

John Hannah is IMO a shill for Israel

At about 3 minutes into the TeeVee show tape linked below. the news host lets Hannah begin to talk about Iraq and then Iran.  Hannah was Cheney's foreign policy  staffer during the run up to Desert Storm.  He worked for Libby who worked for Cheney.  He was one of the architects of the war hungry strategy that led to that endless war, a war that has never really ended.  Someone urged me to go talk to Hannah before Desert Storm.  I went.  We met in his closet sized office in the OEB.  I am usually annoyed by people who talk to you from behind their desks but this space was tiny.  He clearly had his mind made up about the wonderfulness of an invasion and wanted to talk about the size force to be used. 

Our deliberate destruction of the existing social order in Iraq unleashed the forces of Sunni rebellion against the occupation and the Shia government that we created through our farcical purple thumb elections.  These were held in the aftermath of the occupation government having openly stated to Sunni leaders that their time had ended.  Now we have the Shia fighting each other over the division of power in Iraq.  John Hannah said on this program that this is because some Shia (the "good" Shia?) are resisting the "control" of Iraq by the government of Iran.

Iran is the major theme of the rest of Hannah's statements to the interviewer.   Hannah is upset at the prospect of "a land bridge" (road connection) from Iran to a Syrian port.  To prevent such a connection the US keeps troops in Syria at al-Tanf just where Israel wants them.  Hannah is upset because  Iran "seeks regional hegemony" (to frustrate Israeli ambitions for the same thing?), etc., etc, ad nauseam.  IMO this is tribalism at its worst. 

IMO Hannah is merely a mouthpiece for Israeli policy.  He is taken seriously as an AMERICAN policy talking head?  He was one of the leading architects of the disastrous Iraq policy and war.  This interview should call into question the basis for his advocacy of that war, a war which the Israelis urged the US to fight.  pl

https://www.foxbusiness.com/shows/after-the-bell

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_P._Hannah

"Joltin'" Jack Keane wants your kids to fight Russia and Syria over Syrian oil.

"Joltin" Jack Keane, General (ret.), Fox Business Senior Strategery Analyst,  Chairman of the Board of the Kagan run neocon "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW)  and Graduate Extraordinaire of Fordham University, was on with Lou Dobbs last night.  Dobbs appears to have developed a deep suspicion of this paladin.  He stood up to Keane remarkably well.  This was refreshing in light of the fawning deference paid to Keane by all the rest of the Fox crew.

In the course of this dialogue Keane let slip the slightly disguised truth that he and the other warmongers want to keep something like 200 US soldiers and airmen in Syria east of the Euphrates so that they can keep Iran or any other "Iranian proxy forces" from crossing the Euphrates from SAG controlled territory to take control of Syrian sovereign territory and the oil and gas deposits that are rightly the property  of the Syrian people and their government owned oil company.  The map above shows how many of these resources are east of the Euphrates.  Pilgrims!  It is not a lot of oil and gas judged by global needs and markets, but to Syria and its prospects for reconstruction it is a hell of a lot! 

Keane was clear that what he means by "Iranian proxy forces" is the Syrian Arab Army, the national army of that country.  If they dare cross the river, to rest in the shade of their own palm trees, then in his opinion the air forces of FUKUS should attack them and any 3rd party air forces (Russia) who support them

This morning, on said Fox Business News with Charles Payne, Keane was even clearer and stated specifically that if "Syria" tries to cross the river they must be fought.

IMO he and Lindsey Graham are raving lunatics brainwashed for years with the Iran obsession and they are a danger to us all.  pl

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/graham-fox-news-star-showed-trump-map-change-his-mind-n1069901

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Syria

"If you hit them, they will behave ..." - the neocons' song.

I have long puzzled over the question of why the neocons; Lindsey Graham, the late John McCain (be brave Lindsey!), Jack Keane, Bolton, Pompeo, etc., etc., ad nauseam,  cling so firmly to the idea of striking Iran a hard blow.

Today I heard the reason voiced on the Sunday newsies by several of the Faithful.  "If you punish the Iranians they will behave" was the refrain.  "They know they would lose to the US and so would be afraid to go to war with us."  This delusion is a variation of the Rational Actor Model.  This poly sci inspired model is based on the false premise that everyone, everywhere functions on the basis of the same priorities and values.  This is an untruth.  For example, a willingness to die for one's country is not a universally shared attitude.  Nor is, a belief in an almighty God who dictates one's duty in this world.  A god in whom the Muslims actually believe as expressed in the shahada (testimony) depicted above.

So, pilgrims, the neocons believe that if the Iranians are punished like children who are spanked for picking their noses, they will recognize the error of their ways and the country will accept the will of the US and more importantly of the Zionists who are IMO the source of such a belief.  Zionism seeks a ME pacified with regard to the existence and hegemony of the Jewish State. 

To that end the Zionists have followed a relentless practice of punishing their opponents in order to bring them to heel.  That has never worked for them but they persist in this "strategery" and have clearly convinced a critical number of movers and shakers in the US to follow their lead.  pl

Iran, We Got to Do Something? by Larry C Johnson

Like a Japanese Kabuki dance Washington is in the grasp of War theater. Many pundits and members of Congress are filling the airwaves and offering up quotes demanding action. Demanding retaliation. We have to stand up to Iran. Only one little problem, the intel on the attack on the Saudi oil installations remains sketchy and hidden.

If the missiles were fired from Iranian territory then our intel collection certainly captured the launch or tracked the origin of the drones or missiles used in the attack. So where is it? I have heard from reliable sources that the info is being kept behind a highly classified wall and only those with access to this particular compartmented info can see it.

I only see four possibilities:

1. The missiles/drones were launched from Iran.
2. The missiles/drones were launched from Yemen.
3. The missiles/drones were launched from a maritime platform in the Persian Gulf
4. The missiles/drones were landed from a country that borders Saudi Arabia, such as Iraq.

Hmmm. I do not believe that if we had solid proof the attack came from Iranian territory that the United States would keep that info behind a Top Secret wall. I also doubt that we would try to hide the fact that the missiles/drones came from Yemen.

What if the missiles/drones came out of Iraq? That is something we would try to keep quiet. Having to admit that our "ally" (Iraq) was the origin of the attack brings with it a whole host of foreign policy problems. 

Meet the Quds1 cruise missile. Made in Yemen?

"On September 14, several explosions rocked the Khurais oilfield as well as the Abqaiq refinery, one of Saudi Arabia’s most vital petrochemical installations. Several hours later, the Houthis claimed that they had targeted both facilities with ten drones as part of their “Balance of Deterrence” campaign.

What made this attack different from other recorded Houthi drone attacks was not only the unprecedented amount of material damage caused but also lingering doubt about the nature and the attribution of the attack. First, a video allegedly showing flying objects entering Kuwaiti airspace led to speculation that like a previous “Houthi” drone attack this strike might actually have originated in Iraq or even Iran. While the video remains unverified, the fact that the Kuwaiti government launched a probe into the issue lends some credence to the idea that something might have happened over Kuwait that day. Speculation about the origins of the attack was further fueled by a tweet by Mike Pompeo in which he claimed that there was no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.

Then the question arose whether drones had been used at all, or whether the attack might in fact have been a missile strike. Previous Houthi drone strikes against oil facilities tended to result in quite limited damage which could be an indication that a different weapons system was used this time. Indeed, Aramco came to the conclusion that its facilities were attacked by missiles. Even more curious, several pictures began to emerge on social media purportedly showing the wreckage of a missile in the Saudi desert. While the images appear real, neither the date the photos were taken nor their location can be verified. Social media users quickly claimed the images showed a crashed Iranian-made Soumar cruise missile. The Soumar and its updated version, the Hoveyzeh, are Iran’s attempts at reverse-engineering the Soviet-designed KH-55 cruise missile, several of which the country illegally imported from Ukraine in the early 2000s. Others claimed it was the Quds 1, a recently unveiled Houthi cruise missile often claimed to be a rebranded Soumar."  armscontrolwonl

---------------

TTG raised the issue of whether or not this wave of strikes was done by UAVs or cruise missiles.  IMO this cruise missile could be built in Yemen with Iranian assistance.   I am very interested in the question of what the actual vector of the attacks was in this case.  pl

/www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208062/meet-the-quds-1/

Giddoutahere!

"Things keep heating up in Venezuela, with possible “military options” now being seriously discussed at the Pentagon. And of course you know what that means! That’s right, it means we can expect to see even more lies and manipulations from the political/media class as the narrative managers try to get their rapey little fingers into our minds to manufacture support for unconscionable acts."  Johnstone

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Trumpy!  These stiffs are losers!  Losers!  They lost in Iraq!.  Remember!  You say you like to win.  These guys are losers.  Keeping these losers will just drag you down!  You always dump losers like these.  Remember!  Where did you get these stiffs?  Who pushed them off on you?  Get rid of them losers too!

Bolton torpedoed your deal with your friend Kim!  Remember.  Is he trying to torpedo your deal with China?

You know that you  have to make some kind of deal with Russia and the great judomaster.  Is Bolton trying to screw that up ?

The three stooges.  Ah, no, Pompey the Magnificent is missing from the group mug shot.   Trumpster! You should dump these guys, AND the crews who gave us the messes in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, the Golan Heights, Kushner's deal of the century, and the coming good deal in Lebanon.

Get some new ones.  You can't let little people losers drag you down.  pl

https://southfront.org/caitlin-johnstone-venezuela-establishment-talking-points-translation-key/

A collapse in the House of Bolton?

"The Baghdad Summit is scheduled to take place on April 20th with several Middle Eastern countries set to participate in this conference organized by Iraq.

The list of countries participating in the Baghdad Summit are as followed: Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, and Syria."  AMN and Reuters

------------

Unless I am seriously mistaken, this meeting is a major setback for the John Bolton view of "the direction" of history in the ME.  These countries are supposed to be obeying Bolton's rules of international order in which peoples and governments are easily manipulated through intimidation and/or bribes to line up neatly into blocs that are on one side stooges of the US and on the other implacable and deadly enemies who must be pursued across all the world's oceans until they "spout black blood and roll fin out."  They can then be added to the US controlled blocs.

Perhaps I have missed something here but these folks do not appear to be playing their assigned roles.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-turkey-syria-saudi-arabia-set-to-meet-for-first-time-at-baghdad-summit/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-parliament/iraq-to-host-regional-rivals-iran-and-saudi-arabia-at-conference-idUSKCN1RW08B

The H-4 airbase in Jordan

"This airfield was built to support the H4 oil pumping station of the Mosul–Haifa oil pipeline built by the Iraq Petroleum Company between 1932 and 1934 in the Emirate of Transjordan at that time a protectorate of the British Empire. The airfield was used by the RAF during World War Two as the Advanced Headquarters for operations against the rebels in Iraq during the Anglo-Iraqi War. The Airbase is now operated by the Royal Jordanian Air Force.^[1]

Between November 2014 and January 2015, the United States began positioning MQ-9 Reaper UAVs at the base.^[1]

The base also houses AH-1F Cobras, believed to be from the 10th and 12th Squadrons of the Royal Jordanian Air Force, and a Cessna 208B Caravan from the 15th Squadron.  wiki

-------------

As air bases go in the ME this is an old one.  It was probably originally a highway landing strip built by the RAF during the British mandates in Palestine, Transjordan and Iraq.  It was built along the line of the Iraq Petroleum Company pipeline and road from Kirkuk to Haifa.  The town is a few kilometers south of the air base.  It has an official name but in my time out there the Jordanian beduin just called it "ashfour,"  (H4). 

This base has been much improved and expanded since 9/11 with American money.  IMO this is probably the base that Trump referred to last week when he said he would move a lot of the SOF people to an airbase outside Syria.  It is a good operating location, protected by the excellent Jordanian military and within easy operating range of Syria 80 kilometers away.

Combined with the US forces at al-asad airbase in Iraq (where Trump visited) and the artillery and road blocking positions that I posted on as linked,  this would IMO constitute a viable base situation in that part of the ME for continued CT operations rather than the Neo-imperialism of the neocons both in and out of uniform.

I took a delegation of West Point cadets to Jordan during the time I taught there.  We visited Qasr Burqa , a Roman Army auxiliary cohort fort about 20 kilometers NW of "ashfour."  We had a Jordanian Badia (desert) policeman with us and a sergeant from the USDAO in Amman.  It is a lovely place with a little lake that is a stop on the Russia to Africa flyway for migratory birds.  They come there in millions, ducks, ducks everywhere.  Sir John Bagot Glubb told me (RIP) that he spent many happy times at Qasr Burqa.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-4_Air_Base

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/12/httpswwwalmasdarnewscomarticleus-builds-two-military-bases-along-syrian-border-map.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Haifa_oil_pipeline

The Fortunes of War - four killed in Manbij

(a Templar - We had ours too)

"Two U.S. service members, one Department of Defense (DoD) civilian and one contractor supporting DoD were killed and three service members were injured in the recent attack in the northern Syrian city of Manbij, the U.S. Army Central Command (CENTCOM) announced at the late hours of January 16.

“Initial reports indicate an explosion caused the casualties, and the incident is under investigation,” CENCTOM said in a short press release.

Earlier, ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack and revealed that it was carried out by a suicide bomber named “Abu Yasin al-Shami.” According to local sources, al-Shami blew himself up in a patrol of the US-led coalition in front of the Prince Restaurant in the center of Manbij.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the attack could be meant to dissuade the U.S. from leaving Syria. However, he stressed that he believes in President Donald Trump’s determination to withdraw troops from Syria.

This was the bloodiest attack against US-led coalition troops in Syria since the beginning of the war on ISIS in 2014. Prior to it, the terrorist group’s cells targeted Kurdish fighters and prominent local figures mostly."  SF

------------

Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you.

Senator Rand Paul tried to explain to the Fox and Friends people today that, as George Carlin used to say, "These are ancient feuds, now fought with better weapons."  Well, maybe a suicide belt is not all that much better a weapon but you get the idea.  Senator Paul attempted to make the point that the peoples of the region however divided tribally, religiously, politically, have a strong inclination to fight each other on a zero sum game basis.  Where this is not true that change is usually the result of foreign influences that have altered the pattern.  Brian Kilmeade the loudest and most simian of the morning crew on Fox attempted to shout down the senator with the usual hyper-aggressive drivel about fighting in Manbij rather than Bayonne, but Paul persisted and Kilmeade finally shut up, probably after a producer spoke to him.  Some of these men on Fox need a white plastic pocket protector to complete their costuming as tribunes of the Deplorables.

Paul's essential point was correct.  This was the simple fact that there will always be Islamic extremists of various sectarian allegiance in the ME.  Should we be surprised that there are IS stay behinds in northern Syria?  We should not be. 

Trump is correct.  Get the hell out and let the Russians try to make peace in Syria.  pl

https://southfront.org/u-s-army-central-command-reveals-details-of-manbij-attack/

It appears that Trump has rejected neocon opinion on Syria

"The U.S. military began the process of withdrawing its troops from Syria following a drawdown ordered by President Donald Trump, a military official said Friday.

Col. Sean Ryan, a spokesman for the U.S.-coalition fighting the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq, declined to discuss specific operational details of the pullout such as timings and troop movements, but said in an email the withdrawal was underway. 

About 2,000 U.S. troops are in Syria. 

The development comes as White House national security adviser John Bolton appeared to contradict Trump's order when he said the withdrawal would not be immediate, it would not happen before ISIS is fully defeated and it would be contingent on a pledge by Turkey not to attack the U.S.'s Kurdish military allies in Syria.

None of Bolton's conditions have been met."     usatoday

-----------

My guess is that Erdogan called Trump and asked him if he or Bolton is running US foreign policy.

Bolton, Pompeo (first in his class), and Jeffrey are still running around sounding off in pursuit of their neocon dream of a world run by the US, but it seems likely that Trump has abandoned them.  Pompeo said in Cairo that the US is a force for good in the ME?  How?  Where?  I have dealt with the ME in government and business for 45 years and I have to delve deeply in my memories to find instance in which our well-meaning but clumsy efforts have not damaged the ME and the people who live there.  USAID comes to mind.  I remember the great re-build of the Alexandria, Egypt sewer and water system.  That was a very good thing.  On the other hand, think of the damage caused endlessly by the US's unquestioning support for Israel's aggressive policies and unwillingness to make any deal that is not completely weighted in their favor.  Think of the death and destruction we have wrought in Iraq.

Trump is busy just now with the questions of the the US southern border and his political survival.  The neocons may have thought that in this circumstance  he would not interfere with their attempt to thwart his policy in Syria.

I wonder how he will deal with Kushner over this.  pl

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/01/11/u-s-syria-troop-withdrawal/2545735002/

Chickens coming home to roost for Trump

Foreign Affairs.  

Middle East.  Bolton had his ass kicked on this trip.  The Turks made it clear that my view of them as neo-Ottomans unwilling to kow-tow to the US or anyone else is correct.  The manner of Turkish dismissal of Bolton's neocon decrees was wonderfully reminiscent of an Ottoman sultan leaving envoys waiting for weeks for an audience.  Now Dunford has run off to Ankara to try his luck.  IMO he will not do much better.  The Turks have rejected US pressure to cancel the S-400 deal with Russia and make it clear that they are going to butcher the SDF people as soon as we get out of the way.  At the same time Bolton, Pompeo and Jeffrey are telling the SDF that they better not make a deal with Damascus!  They better not!  This behavior is like children forming cliques in a school yard.  The mere fact that only the Syrian government and its allies can save the SDF from the Turks evidently means nothing to the neocons.  And, the Jordanian foreign minister made an unequivocal statement, presumably on behalf of his sovereign that under no circumstance would Jordan accept Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights, a territory undoubtedly a de jure territory of Syria.  Iraq and Egypt have made similar statements.  The neocons have always made a great show of respect for a world order based on post Westphalia conceptions of state sovereignty.  Their willingness to accept Israeli piracy and theft of other peoples'  territory makes a mockery of that.  IMO neocon policy in the ME is collapsing under its own weight of delusion.  That Trump allows this indicates to me that he is compromised to some special interest and that the depth of his ignorance of the region remains appalling.

China.  It is said that progress is being made in the trade talks, but thus far it is invisible.  On the other hand the Chinese Navy is becoming more and more belligerent in challenging what they see as intrusions into their zone of influence in the South China Sea.  A senior Chinese naval personage last week made a statement to the effect that what China needs to do is sink two US aircraft carriers and kill 10,000 sailors to confirm to the US that this sea is closed to us.  Adversaries have repeatedly made the mistake of thinking that because a lot of Americans are sybarites who care for nothing but themselves, that this degenerated stock determines what the "Great Republic" will do in a clash.  What they miss in this thinking is that there is a separate "nation" within the US made up of the Deplorables and the children of the Deplorables and these will always fight.  I know Muslims who thought after 9/11  that the US had been taught a lesson and would henceforth be humbled and passive.  How many Muslims died for that mistake?

The internal political war.

Chancy (Chuck and Nancy) as well as the idiots in the senate from New Jersey are having a great time mocking Trump.  They are gambling all on their ability to use their servant media to depict everything he does as evil and stupid.  They are hoping to force him to accept their will and thus castrate himself politically.  If he does that, IMO he a will be mere figurehead for the rest of his term.  I continue to think that when he has sufficiently positioned the Democrats, he will declare a national emergency, put Northcom in charge of the barriers project in order to fulfill the terms of the Emergencies Act and then have the Army Corps of Engineers let a lot of contracts to build out what the Border Patrol recommends.  pl

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/turkeys-erdogan-shuts-down-white-houses-bolton-on-syria.html

Iraq is proposing Re-admittance of Syria to the Arab League

"Iraqi top diplomat Mohamed Alhakim has confirmed the country’s support for Syria’s return to the Arab League, in a statement quoted by the Foreign Ministry.

“Iraq supports the unity of Syria and its return to its normal position in the Arab world and the region and the restoration of its position in the Arab League,” the Twitter post read.

The Iraqi foreign minister added that Baghdad wanted to see border crossings reopened between the two neighbors to stimulate trade.

The statement comes after Saudi Arabia, seen as Syria’s rival in the group, said last week it did not mind the Middle-Eastern state’s return." AMN

 

--------

 

You may be of the opinion that the the Arab League, now headquartered in Cairo, is among the more useless organizations in the world.  If that is your view, you are also among the more perceptive observers of the ME.  The organization is the product of the insatiable Arab desire for meetings, endless speeches and inability to agree on anything that could actually be accomplished.  

 

On the other hand, re-admission of Syria to the Arab League is a mighty symbol for the collective political mind of the Arab World.  This factoid plus resumption of scheduled air transport from Arab countries and the likelihood of the re-opening of Arab embassies in Damascus all point to the simple truth that the Syrian Arab Government has won the civil war.  Even the UK government is now admitting that "Assad will be around for a while."

 

The Turks appear to be transfixed by the prospect of Russian favor and are less likely with every day that passes to try to gobble up northern Syria.

 

A new day, the SDF will make its peace with Damascus.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iraq-backs-syrias-return-to-the-arab-league/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_League

"Whither the Kurds?" Dorsey

"Kurdish hopes are often vested in predictions articulated by former CIA and National Security Agency director Michael Hayden that “Iraq no longer exists, Syria no longer exists”[v][5] as well as the disintegration of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia in the wake of the demise of communist rule. That remains a possibility but more realistic is the fact, at least in the immediate future, the Syrian and Iraqi states as they existed in the past are more likely to change rather than dissolve. The lesson of the 2017 Iraqi Kurdish referendum and the fact that the Iraqi state has already demonstrated resilience in surviving and its Syrian counterpart may well do so too, means that Kurds will have to strive for some autonomous accommodation within a federal structure."  Dorsey

------------

Dorsey's main points are that the Kurds of Iraq and Syria have been taught valuable even if painful lessons:

1.  The United States has been and remains committed to the existence of the post World War One geographical constructs that are the Iraqi and Syrian states.  In the heady atmosphere that accompanied the "Arab Spring," revolts which were largely supported by the Obama Administration, and the decades long flirtation of the US Borg (foreign policy establishment) with the Kurds, the Kurdish people conceived the idea after 9/11 that the US would support them in resistance to non-Kurdish governments in Iraq and Syria even unto support for Kurdish independence and full Kurdish control of petroleum resources in their parts of these countries. 

2.  They have been shown to be wrong in that hope.  The devotion and reverence of the US Borg for the supposed sanctity of international borders and the existence of what is conceived by the Borg to be to an international order in which those borders cannot ever be changed has proven to be much stronger than any other factors including the lure of concessionary contracts in oil and gas from new Kurdish states.

3.  The United States is not a reliable ally in any cause not generally thought to be a struggle against a possibly fatal threat to the US as a country.  The citizenry of the US simply have no interest in less than total wars waged against what is conceived of as great evil.  The Borg understands this disinterest by the public in what the Borg thinks of as a desirable set of tools in the "game of nations." Because of that phenomenon great efforts have been made in IO to sell the Borg Wars as existential for the US.  The American people now see through that deception and Trump has acted on this conviction that he shares with the people.  In that context betrayal of the Kurds has become a necessary evil.

4.  Neither the Kurds not any other hapless minority people will ever have the grip on the collective imagination of the American People and the Congress that Israel has.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/whither-the-kurds/

A New England Brahmin through and through

In the context of Desert Storm I was sent over from the Pentagon to brief him in the Oval Office.

The benevolent grandpa image being propagated in the media on the occasion of his death and emerging apotheosis does not ring true to me.

At the time and ever since, I have thought him a tough, relentless and effective executive.  For whatever reason he was adamant that he was going to put paid to Saddam Hussein.  In public he made a show of mispronouncing the Iraqi's name, saying Saad-em. In private he pronounced the man's name correctly.  The slight was intentional

He asked me what the Iraqis, then occupying Kuwait were likely to do.  He understood that I had spent quite a lot of time in Kuwait and Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War.  I told him that Saddam had been allowed to think that we would not defend Kuwait by the wavering and ambiguous statements made before the Iraqi invasion.

I told him that if he made it clear in an address that occupation of Kuwait meant an all out US military effort to drive them out of the country and that we would not necessarily stop at the border between Iraq and Kuwait they would withdraw because they knew they could not fight the US successfully.

His response was that he did not want them to withdraw because they must be punished for aggression.

I found him to be a perfect representative and heir of the flinty, hard, Puritans who had founded New England.  Texas?  The ah shucks Will Rogers manner was in my opinion a pose.  The influence of his long and prosperous life in Texas was not evident to me.

He was intent on fighting Iraq in Kuwait and probably beyond.  The WW2 torpedo bomber pilot was clearly visible.  This was a formidable man, but one tightly self-controlled.

IMO Ross Perot did the US a great disservice in siphoning off enough votes to enable Clinton's electoral victory.  We would have been much better off with another term for George Bush the Elder.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush

Iraq doesn't care about US sanctions on Iran

 

"On November 16^th, Iran and Iraq agreed on the establishment of a free trade zone, according to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

“We have agreed to create a free trade zone between the two countries, which will enable us to launch joint ventures,” Rouhani said at a press conference held after the meeting, as broadcast by Press TV.

According to Rouhani, currently Iran-Iraq trade amounts to approximately $12 billion, but with some effort could grow to $20 billion.

Rouhani also said that the two leaders also talked about electricity and gas swap, as well as cooperation on petroleum products and oil exploration.

During the joint press conference Salih declared that the relationship between the two neighboring countries is a “fixed principle” that is “rooted in shared history, faith and geography.”

“We care about our relationship with Iran,” Salih declared. However, he did not give full details about the free-trade zone.

All of this follows a meeting between Rouhani and Iraqi President Barham Salih in Tehran, during which they discussed bilateral cooperation and regional development."  SF

------------

Did the Borg and the neocons really think the US controlled Iraq enough to prevent this?  An inability to deal with Middle Eastern realities has marked neocon induced policies for a long time.  IMO this blindness is caused by the universally understood truth that to challenge Israel's fantasies about the malleability of Middle Eastern attitudes is suicide in the Borg (foreign policy establishment) and the neocons are just an arm of Israeli foreign policy.

As further proof of the fragility of the US position in Iraq we had the spectacle of the US supported and maintained SDF/YPG walking away from the fight on the east bank of the Euphrates to move north to bolster their Kurdish compatriots.  CENTCOM cannot have been pleased with that.  They are trying to keep the land routes to Iran from Syria closed.  To do this control of the Deir al-zor - Baghdad leg of one of the two roads (the other runs through al-tanf) requires SDF control of the border crossing alongside the river as well as dependable Iraqi blockage of the road on the other side of the border.

In light of the evident CENTCOM/US lack of grip on the actions of the SDF/YPG and the foreign policy of Iraq, it would seem that there is not much of a future for a strong US presence in Iraq.  pl 

https://southfront.org/iraq-boosts-economic-cooperation-with-iran-despite-us-sanctions-war-on-islamic-republic/

YPG has withdrawn from the Euphrates fight with IS

 

"The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which consist mainly of members of various Kurdish armed groups, declared on October 31 that they had halted their operation against ISIS in the Euphrates Valley because of Turkish attacks on their positions in northern Syria.

The SDF blamed Turkey for its own inability to eliminate the ISIS-held area of Hajin in the Euphrates Valley and called on the so-called international community to pressure Ankara to stop its strikes on SDF targets. The SDF also vowed to retaliate to attacks.

On October 30, October 31 and November 1, clashes between the Turkish military and units of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) were reported near the towns of Ayn Arab, also known as Kobani, and Tel Abyad. According to pro-Turkish sources, at least 4 members of the YPG and the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) were killed and 6 others were injured there. The YPG claimed that its members had destroyed a Turkish military truck with an anti-tank guided missile.

As to the situation in the Hajin area, over the past few days ISIS units have achieved a notable progress in clashes with the SDF recapturing multiple positions from the US-backed group. The halt of the SDF operation there will likely contribute further to ISIS expansion in the direction of the Iraqi border."  SF

--------------

 James Jeffrey, the neocon US representative in the Syria/Iraq situation is busy placating both Turkey and Israel at the expense of the SAG and the poor bloody Kurds and Arabs of the SDF/YPG.  Jeffrey has said that he hopes the Russians will allow Israel to keep bombing supposed Iranian facilities at will and his efforts on behalf of Erdogan's ambitions in northern Syria and Iraq seem to know no bounds.  Trump said today at his disgraceful presser (his fault and that of the media) that Jeffrey "fits in with the Pompeo team."  Evidently that is so.

Meanwhile out in the Euphrates Valley, the high command of the SDF/YPG have withdrawn their forces (probably against US wishes) from the too long delayed offensive against the IS held Hajin Pocket near the rod crossing into Iraq.

The reason?  The Turks are busily attacking YPG forces up north near the Turkish border.  Surprise!  The Kurds think they need to go fight the Turks rather than serve the US desire to keep one of the two land routes from Syria to Iran closed.

I have been busy with things electoral this week but this development deserves attention.  pl  

 https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-november-1-2018-sdf-halts-operation-against-isis-in-euphrates-valley-because-of-turkish-attacks/ 

"Who needs Saudi Arabia?" Washpost editorial

 

"As for arms sales, someone needs to brief Mr. Trump on the actual results of the promises made to him when he visited Riyadh last year. As Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution sums it up, “The Saudis have not concluded a single major arms deal with Washington on Trump’s watch.” Moreover, an end to supplies of U.S. spare parts and technical support, something Russia cannot provide, would quickly ground the Saudi air force. That would have the welcome effect of ending a bloody bombing campaign in Yemen that a U.N. investigation concluded was probably responsible for war crimes."  Washpost

-----------

Once again, I am not a great fan of Bezos or his blog, but two days in a row they have printed something I can agree with.  Something has changed for him.

It has become a meme in the blather that runs shrill and shallow in the US media, that Saudi Arabia is a faithful, and indispensable ally of the US in the ME.  Bezos disputes this and so do I. 

A few points:

Yes, they chop heads off after Friday prayers outside the local mosque.  They also do hands and feet.  They stone to death women found guilty of adultery.  They sew them in bags before the men present throw handy five pound rocks at them.  The government is deeply approving of this.  Sound familiar?  Yes, it should. The jihadis whom the Saudis sponsor in Syria do the same things.  The Sunni jihadis  are nearly defeated in Syria and it has become clear that the Saudi government has been evacuating their leaders, probably with US connivance, so that they can pursue greater visions of jihad elsewhere.

The importance of Saudi Arabia in the world oil market is IMO now much exaggerated.  They can undoubtedly do some damage by manipulating the short term contract (spot) market but this is something they would pay for heavily.  The Kingdom is cash strapped.  It was not for nothing that MBS turned the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh into a prison for the wealthy including many of his own kin in order to squeeze and in some cases torture them into handing over a lot of their cash to the government.  Depressed petro sales at artificial prices will only further reduce revenue to the government.

The notion that Saudi intelligence contributes much to the GWOT is a joke.  Saudi intelligence competence is something that exists only in pitchmen's claims voiced by TV touts.  In fact, they get almost everything they have from the US and are like greedy baby birds always looking to be fed.  They cannot organize a trip to the gold plated toilet.  It took 15 of them to ambush Khashoggi, well, OK, 14 of them and a doctor to carry the electric bone-saw.

We need to sell them more equipment that they cannot use?  It does not appear to me that any of the contracts that they promised to DJT has been signed.  Their technique is simple.  Keep the hope of profit for the US alive as leverage.

Lastly, the chimera of a great Arab alliance (a la NATO) is delusory.  The Saudis lack both the organizational ability for such a thing and significant military power. They possess one of the world's largest static displays of military equipment.  They have neither the manpower nor the aptitude to use such equipment effectively.  As I have written previously, the Gulf Arabs have long had such an alliance.  It is the GCC and it has never amounted to anything except a venue for the Arab delight in meetings and blather. 

The basis for the desire for such an alliance is the Israeli strategic objective of isolating Iran and its allies; Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas with an eventual hope of destroying the Iranian theocracy.  Israel is frightened of a possible salvo of many thousands of missiles and rockets into Israel from Lebanon as well as an eventual successful creation of a missile deliverable nuclear weapon by the Iranians.  These are real and credible threats for Israel, but not for FUKUS.  Israel has only two really valuable counter-value targets; Haifa and Tel Aviv.  A hit on one or both with a nuclear weapon would be the end of Israel.  The Israelis know that.

Adroit information operations carried out over generations by the Israeli government and its supporters have created in the collective US mind an image of Iran as a disguised 3rd Reich.  This was well done.  The same operation was run against Iraq with magnificent results from the POV of Israel

Saudi Arabia is a worthless ally.  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/who-needs-saudi-arabia/2018/10/15/3ebe473c-d0a1-11e8-8c22-fa2ef74bd6d6_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a339b03b5abf

Janissaries will march across northern Syria and Iraq?

 

 "The Turkish military will expand the area of its operations in northern Syria, up to the  Iraqi border, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on August 18.

“The operations of the Turkish army in Jarabulus, Al Bab and Afrin will be carried out in other Syrian regions, up to the Iraqi border. They will also be carried out in [Iraq’s] Sinjar and Makhmur. We will eliminate the terrorist threat coming from the territory of Syria and Iraq. We will not let terrorists to control zones near our southern borders,” the president said at a congress of the Justice and Development Party.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) along with Turkish-backed militant groups are already in control of a large chunk of northern Syria, including the cities of Al-Bab and Afrin. These areas were seized by Ankara under a pretext of combating ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) – a Kurdish rebel group, which is involved in a long-term standoff against the Turkish governemnt.

On the same time, units of the TAF entered some areas in the province of Idlib in northwestern Syria.

However, the Erdogan government is not going to stop on this. Currently, it’s working to force the US to drop support to the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The core of the SDF is the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Ankara describes the YPG as an affilate of the PKK."  SF

-------------

 Say what?

The US has positioned a small number of troops (advisers, etc.) in the NE and has made noises recently to the effect that the US and the SDF will defend the area that they hold west of the Euphrates River.  Convoys of materiel for the SDF forces have been arriving from Iraq and CENTCOM shows no sign of withdrawing from anywhere in the portion of northern Syria currently held by CENTCOM/SDF. 

At the same time the Turkish Army is deep in northern Iraq and is constructing what look like long term facilities.  Erdogan plans to occupy all of northern Iraq?

pl 

https://southfront.org/erdogan-turkish-military-will-expand-area-of-its-operations-in-syria/

"Russian diplomat warns US sanctions against Iran to destabilize Middle East" AMN

 

"Resumption of anti-Iranian sanctions by the US is a destructive step that might bring about destabilization in the Middle East, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s official spokesperson Maria Zakharova told a news briefing on Thursday."

“Washington’s course at bringing down the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] on the Iranian nuclear program and restoring full-scale pressure through sanctions is absolutely destructive,” she said. 

“There’s scarcely any doubt these steps by the US administration will have long-term deplorable consequences for global nonproliferation [of the weapons of mass destruction] and will impart a destabilizing impulse to the situation in the Middle East.”"  AMN

---------

IMO Zakharova, the Russian spokesperson has it right. 

The Israeli desire to have a less than 1% chance of an Iranian nuke existing has led us to adopt sanctions that may well bring down the present Iranian government.  Unrest is growing across the country because of ever growing economic hardship.  We claim that regime change is not our goal but I do not believe it.  IMO Gina Haspel has been given a presidential finding that orders CIA to bring down the government and the sanctions are just part of that attempted coup. 

The Iranians have every reason to distrust the US.  First there was Mossadegh.  Kermit Roosevelt brought him down by manipulating street mobs.  Secondly there is the undoubted fact that we backed Iraq against them in the Iran-Iraq War.  Now we have abandoned JCPOA, an agreement that IMO was good for everyone except the extreme right in Israel and their neanderthal friends in the US (Hannity, Varney, Keane, Pompeo etc.)  Bolton I will not even mention in that list because he is such an extremist, a man who hungers for war, a man who hid from VN in the Maryland National Guard.  The CIA is just doing its legally ordained task but the rest of them seem to have no comprehension of the chaos that will occur if wilayet al-faqih falls. 

Trump,  Bolton and Giuliani seems to want the Mujahideen e Khalq to become the government of Iran.  This passel of Islamic Marxists (spawn of Ali Shariati) actually fought against Iran as allies of Saddam's Iraq.  That has never been forgotten.  Why would it be?  In fact they would be destroyed in short order of they attempted to form a government.

There is no other coherent body who could form a government.  But, from the Israeli point of view that would be just fine.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-diplomat-warns-us-sanctions-against-iran-to-destabilize-middle-east/

Syria and Turkey Notes - 19 June 2018

 

(editorial)

The US Senate has passed into law a restriction against selling US made equipment to Turkey so long as Turkey persists in its purchase of the Russian S400 SAM system.  The Turkish response as voiced by their Prime Minister and Foreign Minister is basically to tell us to go to hell (paraphrasing).  The Turkish PM has also stated that after their success in jawboning the US over Manbij they intend to move on toward the east to Kobane, Hasakah, Qamishli and parts east in Iraq.   These pronouncements on their part have the flavor of statements from the Ottoman Sultan's throne.   Does anyone seriously doubt that Turkey's intention is to give Syria and Iraq a "haircut" by effectively and probably by annexation eventually moving the border south some distance.  This kind of thing is common in the Islamic World where state boundaries are generally thought of as tentative.  A NATO ally?  What a joke.  I suppose that we cling to NATO as a tool in our crusade against Russia.  The Turks know that and are using the knowledge.

Heather Nauert and Pompeo el-Magnifico have now warned Syria and Russia against an offensive in the SW of SYRIA.  They cite the de-escalation agreement that thr Russians negotiated as though it was a cease-fire protecting the jihadis and FSA rebels who the Israelis treasure so much as a buffer to the east of the forts on the Occupied Syrian Golan Heights (Hauran).  The threats posed by Nauert and Pompeus Maximus are clear.  They are saying that if the SAA attacks to recover its territory the US will attack them in defense of Israel.

At the same time CNN has been told that the air attacks on Syrian and Iraqi forces SE of Al-Bukamal were conducted by Israel itself and not the "Coalition."  Pilgrims, these targets are in the far SE corner of Syria where the main road crosses into Iraq and then reaches Iran by various roads in Iraq.  the Israelis are clearly terrified of the logistic and trade implications of that road.  pl 

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-pm-says-kobane-hasakah-qamishli-are-next-targets-after-manbij/

https://southfront.org/us-senate-to-ban-weapon-supplies-to-turkey-over-its-s-400-deal-with-russia-turkey-responds/

ttps://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-blocking-f-35-sale-wont-stop-turkey-from-acquiring-s-400-systems-pm/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-state-dept-reveals-details-of-pompeo-lavrov-conversation-on-syria/

 https://southfront.org/june-18-strike-on-syrian-forces-near-al-bukamal-was-carried-out-by-israel-us-official/

 

Rob Reiner's Shock and Awe--Not So Much by Publius Tacitus

Last night (Monday the 11th) at the Newseum in Washington, DC, Rob Reiner screened his new film, Shock and Awe. Hard to believe that 15 years have passed since George W. Bush launched an unnecessary war in Iraq. During the prelude to that war, Knight Ridder was a lone voice in the media herd that refused to swallow the propaganda elixir brewed and served by the White House, the Pentagon and the CIA. Specifically, the movie is supposed to tell the story of Editor John Wolcott and his reporters, Warren Strobel and Jonathan Landay, who spent almost two years as pariahs in the journalism community because they reported that there were no facts to back up the claim that Iraq had WMDs. Rob Reiner's new movie (it will hit theaters next month), attempts to tell this story. Sadly, he fails.

I was tempted to title this review, SHOCKINGLY AWFUL. But that would be unfair. The movie is not dreadful. Just really disappointing. A more accurate title would be, BANAL and MEDIOCRE. Although the movie is stocked with a talented cast--Woody Harrelson, James Marsden, Tommy Lee Jones and Rob Reiner--and the actors do a fine job given the material they have to work with, the story is fragmented and superficial. The problem starts with the script. It lacks identity and focus. 

The movie opens with a paraplegic black Army private wheeling himself into a Congressional hearing where he then testifies before a stereotypical congressional committee. It is a few years since Bush went to war in Iraq and the soldier, rather than read his testimony, decides to  ask the committee members a blunt question--why the hell did we go to war in Iraq. Cue the flashback.

It is now September 11, 2001 and we are introduced to reporters Jonathan Landay and Warren Strobel. The Al Qaeda attack on America lit the fuse on an 18 month time bomb that ultimately exploded in Iraq. We still do not know why George W Bush and his band of malevolent neocons decided that Saddam Hussein should be taken down. Maybe some really believed that Saddam and Bin Laden were in cahoots. Perhaps some knew that was just a pretext for getting rid of Saddam as a stepping stone to creating a path for democracy in the Levant. Reiner's movie does not answer this question. 

Mookie and Nasrullah, a tale of two Shia

(editorial comment)

Muqtada al-Sadr.  When he led the Army of the Mahdi against US occupation of Iraq, American troops called him Mookie.  He was a nasty fat fils a papa and spawn of a distinguished Shia scholar.  In those days he  had very little in the way of religious credentials, but he summoned many who hoped for the return of the Shia Mahdi (perhaps the occulted Imam himself?) . The summoned 12ers often followed him and for a time his followers were a major problem for the US mission civilisatrice in the ME.  After all, how could one "get on" with the region-wide campaign to geld forces hostile to Israel when this pest with his "simple minded" fanatics opposed.  Sooo, a solution was devised.  The US Army and USMC massed their highly trained enlisted snipers against those awaiting the Mahdi and killed near on a thousand of them.   Mookie understood that it was only a matter of time for him personally.  When that happened he decided that Western style politics were not as bad as he had thought and went to Iran to work on his religious qualifications pending a return to politics in Iraq.  Babak will know but I recall that he became something like a Hojjat al-Islam.  Now he is back and somehow unaccountably at least mildly anti-Iranian.  He is the principal winner in the recent parliamentary election along with his communist party allies.  He now has the problem of finding enough coalition partners to form a government.  He cannot be PM because he did not win a seat himself, but will dictate the identity of the victim.  I would not be surprised if the US courts him, seeking a good relationship.  After all, he is supposedly anti-Iranian and that is the touchstone of American policy in the region, that, and indifference to the Palestinians.

Hassan Nasrullah.  Since the last Lebanese general election the US has steadfastly sought to obey Israeli guidance in opposing the presence of the Hizbullah Party, as opposed to the Hizbullah Army in the government of Lebanon.  Feltman and Satterfield were ambassador there throughout that period.  Feltman is a "coach" for Nikki at the UN and David Satterfield is now acting Assistant Secretary of State for the Near Est.  They brought him back from retirement for that.  He must have done an effective job in Lebanon.  In the recent election the March 8 Alliance (Hizbullah, Amal, Aounists, Druze, and various cats and dogs) seem to me to have 55 seats in parliament.  That appears to be a majority, and that coalition will dominate the new parliament.  This is a big problem for the US.  Hizbullah sits on Israel's northern border poised to rain fire and death on a wide range of Israeli targets of both the counter-value and counter-force types.  A big enough bombardment could cripple Eretz Israel for a long time.  Ah, no, I forgot.  Trump and the US branch of the Knesset would immediately vote an immense amount of borrowed money for Israel.  Ah, no, I forgot again. B-52s over the Tabbouleh Line would be another likely response.  pl

"The Truth about Oil and the Iraq War, 15 Years Later" Commentary by The Virginian

(article by Gary Vogler)

'The oil agenda I discovered and experienced was to supply Iraq oil to Israel. The players were the neoconservatives in the Bush Administration, their favorite Iraqi – Dr Ahmed Chalabi and the Israeli government. One of the motives was because Israel was paying a huge premium for its oil imports and this premium had just started in the late1990s. The agenda called for the reopening of the old Kirkuk to Haifa pipeline and its significant expansion. When this pipeline plan became unattainable in the 2nd half of 2003 then Chalabi took other actions to get inexpensive Iraqi oil to Israel."  Vogler

See: http://universitypressblog.dept.ku.edu/uncategorized/1395/

**********

The author is a good man. However, I suggest he gives too much credit to the intellectual capacity of the Neocons and their Israeli counterparts - they are not that smart, but certainly willing to place personal gain above the national interest. Some involved may have seen oil for Israeli as an intended outcome, but it would have been one of several (poorly thought out) drivers behind the neocon agenda. More broadly the perceived "interests" of Israel would have been more on the agenda, with oil being a subset of that strategic thinking.

Those in the Israeli DMI, like the US IC, with half a clue about Iraqi infrastructure, regional politics much less the O&G industry would have realized early on that any Israeli pipeline links were pipe dreams - not to mention that the Haifa pipeline no longer exists (ceased to many moons ago). The history of smuggled oil (decades old) plus Kurdish supply that has gone to Israel since 2003 underscores the difficulty of taking Iraqi oil to Israel in an overt manner.

That said, the politicos - partnered with the likes of Chalabi - and the money men tried and did create opportunity once the invasion was decided (or just after) for themselves. The willingness of those in the USG to allow this was and remains shameful.  The Virginian

Neocon Jack Keane wants a permanent US presence in Syria

 

"Keane retired from military service in 2003. He now works as a national security analyst for Fox News. He has served an advisory role in the management of the U.S. occupation of Iraq, as a member of the Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee. In January 2007, Keane and scholar Frederick W. Kagan released a policy paper, entitled "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq",^[7] through the American Enterprise Institute that called for bringing security by putting around 30,000 additional American troops there for a period of at least 18 months. In part convinced by this paper, President George W. Bush ordered on January 10, 2007, the deployment of 21,500 additional troops to Iraq, most of whom would be deployed to Baghdad, this deployment has been nicknamed the 2007 "surge".    wiki on Keane

--------------

I watched this man hold forth this morning on Varney and Company a business and politics show hosted by Stuart Varney a fervently American immigrant from England who apparently never saw a jingo he didn't like.

General Keane is a close associate of the Kagans, Victoria Nuland, Petraeus and the like.  He has consistently pressed in policy circles for aggressive foreign policy ventures including the Iraq "Surge" that helped secure the Baghdad area from Iraqi insurgents.  In fact the security situation markedly improved across Iraq because Petraeus was smart enough to encourage the work that had been done by Green Berets and junior USMC people in encouraging the Sunni Arabs to abandon support of the jihadi guerrillas.

On Varney's show today Keane pushed for a US policy in Syria that would establish a "security zone" in Syria east of the Euphrates and in the Kurdish areas east of Manbij.  He was clear that he believes that this "security zone" should be held indefinitely, in other words, permanently.

He said that such a zone would prevent the western expansion of Iran through northern Iraq and then Syria westward to the Mediterranean thus completing the dreaded Shia Crescent.  The fact that the Iraqi sovereign government might object to such Iranian expansion did not seem to occur to him.  Perhaps he has taken note of the condemnation by that Shia Arab dominated government of the FUKUS missile strikes in Syria.

To help the FUKUS forces hold this enclave indefinitely, he repeated the notion that the Sunni majority countries in the region should contribute armed forces to the Sunni Enclave.  DJT has recently said much the same thing.  This raises the possibility to me that his "thinking" on this matter originates with the arch neocons and their favorite vehicle the Institute for the Study of War, a Kagan operation through and through.  Well, pilgrims, I am here to tell you that the Sunni Arab countries are not going to do that,  Apart from Jordan's small but competent forces, the rest have no armed forces capable of doing anything but oppress civilian populations.  Saudi Arabia's indefensible war against the people of Yemen is a perfect example of the military ineptitude of the Sunni Arab states.  Repeatedly defeated by the Houthis and the rump of the Yemeni Army the Saudi have resorted to employing African and other mercenaries against the Yemenis as well as pursuing a savage campaign of aerial bombing against Yemeni civilians.  Perhaps they were inspired to do this by the courses of study of RSAF officers at the US Air Force "University" at Montgomery, Alabama.  the Strategic Bombing theories of Douhet are still much admired there.

Toward the end of his discourse this morning, Keane, came to the crux of his argument.  He said that a war is coming in which Iran, Hizbullah and the Syrian government will fight Israel and that the US must be in a position in Syria to defend Israel when that happens.  Thus it is revealed that the source of Keane's (and now DJT's) thinking is simply Israel's obsession with the hostility of the Gentile World to include all those Muslims surrounding them.  In other words, Keane's neocon pitch is based on Zionist fear.

Keane several times repeated a line to the effect that no US combat brigades or regiments would be committed to the Sunni Enclave.  To believe this magical thinking is to believe that no real fighting would eventually have to be done.

I have seen a poll today that indicates that 61% of the American people approve of the FUKUS missile strikes against the fictional chemical weapons target set in Syria.  The gullibility involved in that is impressive.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Keane

Erdogan is making progress toward ... What?

 

"Turkey has the following goals:

• to consolidate gains and to expand the territory under its control in northern and northwestern Syria as well as in northern Iraq. The expansion in northern Iraq may be conducted under the pretext of military efforts against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Sinjar. The military presence in neighboring countries will be justified publicly by the need to create so-called “security zones” to combat “terrorism”;
• to strengthen positions on the so-called Cyprus Issue. Northern Cyprus is a self-proclaimed state occupying the northern part of the island and is recognized only by Turkey. Turkey maintains a notable military force there;
• to strengthen its influence in the Aegean Sea;
• to expand its cultural and political influence into the Turkic states of Central Asia and to restore its clandestine influence on the Turkic regions of Russia."  SF

-------------

 The author of this piece agrees with my position that Turkey will not be leaving northern Syria unless forced to do so.  Any number of crafty ploys are available to insure an indefinite presence leading in the end  to a request from a puppet government for annexation to Turkey.  The same thing is very likely to occur in northern Iraq.

What will Russia, Iran and the US do about such a progression of events?  They are likely to do nothing.  Inaction is always probable when larger issues of international economics and great power rivalries are barriers to action.  pl 

https://southfront.org/victories-and-diplomacy-of-turkey-what-to-expect-next/

A Modest Proposal to dismember Syria ...

 

" ... the five countries called for a UN-supervised election for the -Syrians inside and outside the country and for radical changes in the Syrian constitution including stripping the Syrian presidency from most, if not all, of its powers.

The five countries also suggested stripping the Syrian government from many of its powers and creating two parliaments that will have limited powers. This will leave most of the state’s establishments under the control of the local authorities in a decentralized political system.

Syrian pro-government activists described the proposed constitution as an attempt to legalize the stateless situation in some parts of Syria in order to end the Syrian state once and for all.

Bashar Jaafari, the Permanent Representative of Syria to the United Nations, rejected the Arab-Western plan and stressed that its content contradicts with the international resolutions, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)."  SF

-------------

The French and British created the state of Syria in pursuit of their imperial interests and now, in association with the US and Saudi Arabia, they seek to destroy it.  Jordan?  This is laughable.  Jordan is yet another artifact of the post WW1 re-structuring of the ecumenical empire that the Sublime Porte had more or less governed for hundreds of years in the name of Islam.  For the Jordanians to sign on to the destruction of Syria is worse than a crime.  It is stupid.  Have the Jordanians no sense at all of what may be their fate when greater powers find them inconvenient.

Saudi Arabia?  Their obvious desire to subjugate the interests of the many religious and ethnic groups of Syria is clear.  They have sought Wahhabi Sunni triumphalism and rule in the Levant for many years.  Their participation in this foolish proposal is yet more of the same.

Unless the Turks conquer a great deal of northern Syria and thereby make moot any such agreement, it is likely that in the end there will be some measure of autonomy granted to the Syrian Kurds by the SAG, but not more than that.  Loosely confederated states are not favored in the Islamic World.  They are thought to be inherently weak instruments of foreign meddling.  pl 

 

https://southfront.org/us-uk-france-saudi-arabia-and-jordan-propose-own-political-plan-to-solve-syrian-crisis/

Drifting sands: America's strategy in Syria

By Patrick BAHZAD

As the war in Syria is entering a new phase, the US will have to deal with issues that will prove very difficult to incorporate into a single comprehensive strategy.    

There was an eerie sense of déjà vu about yesterday's statement by Secretary of State Tillerson. The kind of same old, same old speech about issues, challenges and threats, not necessarily related, and grand objectives of US foreign policy. But the most basic question as to what the United States wants to do with Syria, and what it wants for the Middle-East in general, remained unanswered. Obviously, it doesn't take a genius to figure out this administration is on course for containment and roll back of Iranian influence in the region. But wishful thinking and circumstantial alliances with unreliable partners don't make a strategy, they just make up a recipe for yet another disaster.

War in Syria has entered a new, decisive phase, that much is clear. The so-called "Islamic State" has been defeated as a political entity, in Syria as well as in Iraq. And, as could also be expected, it has already started to morph back into an insurgency, alas of global proportions this time, and will soon re-emerge not just in the Middle-East, but in areas where we didn't encounter its black banner before. The ambush that targeted American Special Forces in Mali, in late 2017, bears testimony to this trend.

Jihad Incorporated is expanding, despite the massive blow it was dealt in Mosul and Raqqa. The costs of the military operations against IS are high though, and there will be a price to pay for the way local forces conducted operations. Huge refugee camps have been established. Cities were levelled to the ground. Reconstruction is in tatters. This is a fertile breeding ground for any insurgency and the Jihadi shape shifters will try and take advantage of those circumstances.

Idlib update - 14 january 2017

" This map provides a general look at the current results of the Syrian Army’s advance in eastern Idlib, northern Hama and southern Aleppo. Government forces have liberated a large number of villages in the aforementioned areas and now are working to clear the militant-held pocket northwest of Khanasir. Seprately, the Tiger Forces are working to repel counter-attacks by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and to establish control over the strategic Abu al-Duhur airbase."  SF

--------------

 This is impressive stuff.  R+6 are carving up the Greater Idlib Pocket like a Thanksgiving turkey.  I see that a spokesman for the Kurdish SDF/YPG says that Kurdish forces will enter Idlib to participate in the destruction of HTS and friends.  It seems clear to me that the Kurds will fight on the government side if they enter the fight in Idlib.   This must really be a disppointment to CENTCOM.  pl 

https://southfront.org/map-update-current-results-of-syrian-armys-advance-in-eastern-idlib-northern-hama-and-southern-aleppo/

A coupla things ...

1.  A couple of Border Patrol/ICE people tell me that the US does not effectively charge an entry fee to non-US citizen individuals seeking to enter the US legally across the southern border.  The point made by these border and immigration professionals is that the money would enable the construction and installation of more and better border barrier systems.  They make the point that where border barrier systems have been installed the flow of illegal migrants is much reduced.  Mexico evidently collects such a fee in the San Diego sector.  My question for the lawyers is whether or not such a fee would be legal if put in place under an EO or would this require legislation?

2.  We now have had Obama Derangement Syndrome (ODS),  Clinton Derangement Syndrome (CDS),  Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS),  and United States Derangement Syndrome (USDS).  I propose yet another Derangement Syndrome.  This would be the Russia/Iran Derangement Syndrome (RIDS).  In this syndrome now prominent on both sides of the political divide, the Russia of Pushkin, Turgenev, Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, etc. disappears to be replaced altogether by Ivan the Terrible, Lenin, Stalin and the Soviet Union writ large to condemn Russia in our minds to the status of crafty inherently hostile barbarians.   Well, pilgrims, maybe it ain't so!  Ukraine?  Are we really solidly behind a coup generated government of Nazi sympathizers in Kiev?  Are we really?  Is there really evidence that Russian Army troops are fighting in eastern Ukraine?  Is there? Or is this claim just another example of Borgist (foreign policy establishment) information operations?  Do we still remember that the Crimea was for centuries an integral part of Russia, not the Ukraine, until Khruschev, a Ukrainian, arbitrarily gave Crimea to the Ukraine.  The Russians took it back?  What a surprise.  What a surprise!  That doesn't fit with the "rules based world order?"  Well, maybe there is something wrong with the rules that the Borg loves so much.  Russia intervened in Syria to prevent a  jihadi/Gulfy/Israeli/US handover of the country to the grip of a salafi satrapi of Saudi Arabia?  Well, God bless them!

3. The Borg evidently thinks it bestrides the world as the standard bearer of the aforementioned "rules," commanding from the imperial capital on the Tiber/Potomac.  A reminder of this "thought," is the statement today in the corporate media that the US "ordered" Soleimani, the IRGC Quds force commander (foreign interventions) not to leave Iran and he has had the effrontery to visit Moscow.  Tell me pilgrims, what is the sense of such a statement.  How is Soleimani a terrorist?  He carries out his country's foreign policy as do our people for US policy.  His men worked with Iraqi insurgents to fight us during our adventure in country building?  Mathis, McMaster and all that crew are so deeply embittered by war that they cannot see the foolishness of that?  They should grow up.  "We fought them and they fought us."  Germany, Japan, Spain, etc.?  Come on!  Grow up!

4.  Pelosi appears to me to be demented.

5.  "Shithole?"  Well, SWMBO and I have lived and visited in many a "shithole."  Haiti, Salvador, Yemen, and any number of African dumps closely resemble that description.  Rude?  Yes, certainly, but he is the "hard hat" president.  IMO most Americans agree with him on this. 

6.  A lot of the newer, younger people on Foxnews' air appear to be making their reportage into the new CNN.  pl

At least Nauru is still with us ...

 

"  nine states – including the United States and Israel –voted against the resolution. The other countries which supported Washington were Togo, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Marshall Islands, Guatemala and Honduras."  Guardian

-------------

(irony alert) So, Perfidious Albion has bitten the hand that fed them.  That's right isn't it?  No?  What about all that Spam we sent them when they ran out of crumpets?  What about that?  Why would Palau have voted on our side?  Ah, there must be some pot of Golden Grickels from which they sup, maybe something about a Jack London memorial pearl fishery or, something. (end of irony)

 

Nikki Haley, is a city girl flower of South Carolina politics.  Do you suppose that she may be learning that THE WORLD is harder to bully than a bunch of "good ole boys" who like to put Rebel flag decals on their pick-up trucks?

And then, there are the related spectacles of the Israeli UN ambassador sneering just now on the TeeVee at THE WORLD whilst Iraq, Afghanistan, Jordan, Turkey and Egypt voted for the resolution.  I guess that means that they don't need the money badly enough to roll over when ordered. 

There will be no peace for Israel.  pl 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/21/united-nations-un-vote-donald-trump-jerusalem-israel

Iran to Syria route is open now.

 

"The first Iranian military convoy crossed into Syria coming from Iraq through the Tell al-Badi crossing during this week, the UK-based news outlet the New Arab reported on December 16.

A senior Iraqi official told the New Arab that the Iranian military convoy consisted of 20 covered trucks carrying an unknown load. The official added that the convoy was escorted by fighters and commanders of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iraqi Hezbollah and Hezbollah al-Nujaba.

“A convoy of 20 mud-covered, unmarked vehicles crossed into Syria after being let through checkpoints manned by the PMU … The cars were transporting Iranian and Iraqi forces to fight alongside the Assad regime. I believe this could signal the activation of the long-planned Tehran-Damascus road,” the Iraqi official told the New Arab.

If these claims are true, this can be considered as a huge achievement for Iran and its allies, mainly Lebanese Hezbollah. For the last four years, Iran was shipping weapons and ammunition to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Hezbollah through an air route. This method allowed Israel to identify, track and target Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah easily, as only few cargo airplanes land in Syrian airports every day.

However, now Israel will be incapable of identifying any Iranian shipment on the new ground route, as it will be used by thousands of Iraq and Syrian companies on daily basis in the upcoming months. Experts believe that this will give Hezbollah and the SAA a huge advantage over Israel and will allow Iran to increase its supplies to its allies."  SF

---------------

Israeli air attacks against vehicles moving from Iran to Syria along this route, but it is a mighty victory for Iranian strategy in the region.  An alternative route for commercial traffic will be through the Jordanian panhandle and across the  border in the Daraa area.  pl

https://southfront.org/first-iranian-military-convoy-enters-syria-through-land-route-from-iraq-reports/

Waiting for the punch in the mouth - TTG

Back in 1987 a reporter interviewed Mike Tyson about his upcoming fight with Evander Holyfield. The reporter asked Mike if he was worried about Evander and his fight plan. Mike famously replied,”Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” That thought came to mind when I read the latest plan articulated by a Pentagon spokesman for our military forces in eastern Syria.

***********************

“WASHINGTON—The Pentagon plans to keep some U.S. forces in Syria indefinitely, even after a war against the Islamic State extremist group formally ends, to take part in what it describes as ongoing counterterrorism operations, officials said. There are approximately 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria, along with an unspecified number of contractors supporting them. Last month, the U.S. military withdrew 400 Marines from Syria, which U.S. forces first entered in the fall of 2016.

Officials earlier this week disclosed the plans for an open-ended commitment, known as a “conditions-based” presence. That is the same approach the Trump administration is taking in Afghanistan. “The United States will sustain a conditions-based military presence in Syria to combat the threat of terrorist-led uncertainty, prevent the resurgence of ISIS, and to stabilize liberated areas,” Army Col. Rob Manning, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters Wednesday.

U.S. defense officials stressed there would be no large, permanent bases in Syria of the kind the U.S. maintains in places like Germany and South Korea. Instead, troops will be assigned to smaller bases and outposts. In some instances, troops will deploy temporarily from other bases in the region for specific missions, one of the defense officials said. It isn’t clear how many forces would stay in the country.

The Pentagon has said the forces will target parts of Syria that aren’t fully governed by either regime or rebel forces. The military says it has the legal authority to remain there. “Operating under recognized international authorities, the U.S. military will continue to support local partner forces in Syria to stabilize liberated territory,” Col. Manning said.”  (WSJ)

***********************

This “conditions based” presence sounds like a new way of saying we plan on staying in Syria indefinitely just like we plan on staying in Afghanistan and Iraq indefinitely… or at least until we get punched in the mouth. Not much of a plan as far as I'm concerned.

Not long ago CIA Director Pompeo sent a secret letter to the IRGC’s General Soleimani reportedly to warn him not to attack US or Coalition forces in Syria or Iraq. Soleimani did not open the letter. It’s existence was reported by Press TV. Soleimani later sent his own not so secret message to the CJTF-OIR Commander.

***********************

“Brigadier General Haj Qassem Soleimani sent a verbal letter, via Russia, to the head of the US forces commander in Syria, advising him to pull out all US forces to the last soldier “or the doors of hell will open up”.

“My message to the US military command: when the battle against ISIS (the Islamic State group) will end, no American soldier will be tolerated in Syria. I advise you to leave by your own will or you will be forced to it”, said Soleimani to a Russian officer. Soleimani asked the Russian responsible to expose the Iranian intentions towards the US: that they will be considered as forces of occupation if these decide to stay in north-east Syria where Kurds and Arab tribes cohabit together.”  (Elijah J. Magnier)

***********************

To add to the CJTF-OIR Commander’s concerns, the leader of an Iraqi PMU militia, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, declared that “Trump’s stupid decision” to hand Jerusalem to the Israelis is “a legitimate reason to target American forces.”  In Aleppo the Liwa al-Quds Brigade rallied in protest to Trump’s decision on Jerusalem. As the full reaction to Trump’s decision develops, our forces will end up surrounded by hostiles with no friends in sight. As Magnier surmises, Trump may be setting our troops up for a repeat of the events of 1983 Beirut. Now that would be a punch in the mouth.

TTG

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-remain-in-syria-indefinitely-pentagon-officials-say-1512752450

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/12/09/qassem-soleimanis-letter-to-the-us-leave-syria-or-else-could-al-hasaka-2018-become-beirut-1983/

Look to the East - TTG

Many of us expected the R+6 to finally focus on the jihadi cauldron in Idlib once Deir Ezzor and Abu Kamal were secure and the forward line of troops facing the YPG/SDF becomes static along the Euphrates. This doesn't appear to be the case.

Yes, Abu Kamal is the immediate prize. The RuAF have hit that area with TU-22M3 bombers and the Russian Navy launched Kalibr cruise missiles towards Abu Kamal from the super-stealthy diesel-electric sub Kolpino. SAA forces along with IRGC-led militias have pushed beyond T2 to the Iraqi-Syrian border and have linked up with the Iraqi PMU forces that have taken Al Qaim. This Iraqi-Syrian coalition has advanced on Abu Kamal from the south and are now fighting IS units in the city. They are expected to take the city soon and hand it over to the SAA.

Just to the north, the Tiger Force sits just south of Al Mayadin along with other elite SAA units like the 800th Battalion poised to push down the Euphrates to Abu Kamal. This concentration of forces may have additional objectives beyond Abu Kamal. Bashar al-Assad laid out these additional objectives in comments he made after meeting with Iran's Ali Akbar Velayati yesterday in Damascus. Assad said he may take the war to the US-backed SDF by saying the war "targeted those who seek to divide and weaken states." Assad also appointed a new commander-in-chief for his forces across the Deir Ezzor Governorate, Major General Muhammad Khaddour. MG Khaddour led the successful defense and counter-offensive against last month's IS attacks on the Palmyra-Deir Ezzor M7 highway. Khaddour has the assistance of both MG Suheil Al-Hassan of the Tiger Force and MG Qasem Soleimani of the IRGC for whatever is planned for Deir Ezzor.

The YPG/SDF have to look at the forces arrayed in front of them, the leaders of those forces and the words of Syria's President and contemplate their future. They also have to look at the situation to their rear. The Iraqi Army and PMU will soon control the entire border with Syria up to the Turkish border. Their wisest decision would be to seek reconciliation with Damascus ASAP and tell the CJTF-OIR to pack up and go. I hope my Green Beret brethren embedded with the Kurds and Arab militias are advising their counterparts about the demobilization phase of a US-sponsored resistance. IMO this is the most critical phase of a successful resistance... reintegration into the nation's military forces and society. Do it right, boys. Do it right.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-iraqi-troops-storm-isis-stronghold-abu-kamal/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-assad/assad-says-syria-war-does-not-end-in-deir-al-zor-idUSKBN1D71RH

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-appoints-talented-general-assume-overall-command-deir-ezzor/

https://muraselon.com/en/2017/11/exclusive-syrias-elite-group-launches-military-operation-towards-last-isis-stronghold/

Iraqi-SAA cooperation in SE Syria

 

 " ... fighters from the Iraqi paramilitary, Hashd Al-Sha’abi (trans. Popular Mobilization Units), entered Syria from Iraq’s Al-Anbar Governorate, members of this group reported last night.

According to these fighters from Hashd Al-Sha’abi, they entered Syria to block the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from taking the border-city of Albukamal in Deir Ezzor’s southeastern coun

While Al-Masdar cannot confirm these claims at the moment, there is a large IRGC and Hezbollah presence near the Iraqi border; it is believed Hashd Al-Sha’abi is coordinating with these groups to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS) at Albukamal.

The Iraqi Armed Forces liberated the border-city of Al-Qa’im on Friday, ending the Islamic State’s long reign over this imperative crossing that links Iraq’s Al-Anbar Governorate and Syria’s Deir Ezzor.  AMN

------------

Israel is pushing the US hard in the matter of highway border crossings from Syria into Iraq.  The Israelis very much want to prevent the establishment of a viable Iran to Syria ground transportation link.   There are two major crossings.  One is south of Al- tanf .  The US has not removed its client forces from that route.  The other is at the Al-bukamel/Al-qaim crossing on the road from Deir al-Zor  to Baghdad. 

In evidence of the futile direction of US policy the Shia Iraqi government is cooperating with the SAG  to block US/SDF access to that crossing point.

This must be driving Natanyahu crazy.  It is probably related to Saad Hariri's resignation from exile in Saudi Arabia.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iraqi-fighters-enter-syria-block-us-backed-forces-taking-albukamal-report/

The next phase in Syria

(I couldn't crop this - sorry)

This is the situation in NW Syria and the east on 31 October.

1. The situation in Eastern Syria has become relatively stable.  The US government's proxy forces (SDF) have advanced to the east bank of the
   Euphrates and as a result sovereign Syria will be limited to the country west of the river for some unforeseeable period.
2. The SDF and R+6 are engaged along with Iraqi forces in a race along both banks of the river to determine who will control the Albukamel border crossing on the Deir al-Zor to Baghdad highway.  The US coalition apparently wants to keep that highway communication out of SAG hands so as to continue to weaken the government.  The Iraqi government wants the crossing open and in Syria's hands, so this is bound to be a cause of friction between the US and Iraq.
3. The large IS pockets in central Syria have been eliminated with some jihadis being allowed to evacuate into the Albukamel area and others seeking to flee into Idlib Province where they are being given a hostile reception by HTS (Al-Qa'ida).
4. This has freed up a large number of Syrian troops who are being re-deployed either to the Euphrates or to the coming offensive in Idlib Province.
5. The Syrian general command has appointed new commanders to the north overall and to the offensive that will drive into Idlib Province from the south.
6. Action on the axis astride Route 5 from the south has begun.  Secondary attacks should be expected from Aleppo City and from Latakia Province going east.
7. Such action is facilitated by the fact that both HTS and IS are excluded from the terms of the de-escalation agreement in Idlib Province.
8. The situation will become really interesting when R-6 forces reach the outposts now manned by the Turks in northern Idlib Province.  pl

More on the US policy miasma in the ME

 

"On October 22, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at a joint news conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, that it is time for “Iranian militias” that’s fighting ISIS in Iraq to “go home” according to Reuters Agency.

“Iranian militias that are in Iraq, now that the fight against Daesh and ISIS is coming to a close, those militias need to go home. The foreign fighters in Iraq need to go home and allow the Iraqi people to regain control,” Tillerson said.

According to Reuters an US official explained that Tillerson was referring to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and the Iranian Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

However, the PMU consists of Iraqi forces with some Iranian support and assiastance. Considering this, Tillerson statement is either based on very poor understanding of the situation in Iraq, or it might be meant as propaganda, and nothing more."   SF

https://southfront.org/us-state-secretary-iranian-militias-must-leave-iraq/

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The PMU are overwhelmingly IRAQI Shia Arabs.  They ARE home.  Tillerson looks foolish sitting next to Adel Jubair (aka The Chihuahua) broadcasting to the world the policy desiderata of the Saudi kingdom.   We all know that DJT made his obeisance to the throne of the Wahhabi state.  Tillerson is obviously there as the deputy mukhtar of America.  Does the Shia run government of Iraq welcome such a statement?  I doubt it.  pl

******

"US.-backed fighters captured Syria's largest oil field from the Islamic State group Sunday, marking a major advance against the extremists in an area coveted by pro-government forces.

With IS in retreat, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government have been in a race to secure parts of the oil-rich Deir el-Zour province along the border with Iraq."  Chicago Tribune

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-syria-oil-field-islamic-state-20171022-story.html

-----------

 Well, pilgrims, IMO the US/SDF has done this to cripple Syrian reconstruction.  The income from this field will be needed for the re-building of places like Raqqa and Aleppo.  What do the neocons and their general officer allies think they are going to do with their possession of this Syrian national property?   Are they going to try to negotiate Kurdish autonomy amounting to independence?  pl

*****

"Turkish troops first deployed in Idlib last Thursday with the purported aim of enforcing the so-called de-escalation zone that Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to in the Kazakh capital of Astana last month. In a statement last week, Turkey’s prime minister said that the operation also aimed to reduce refugee flows into Turkey, prevent conflicts between civilians and militants in Idlib, and establish control points for future deployment in the area.

A wide-scale military campaign against HTS, however, was not listed among the objectives, and Turkey has not demonstrated any hostility toward the group. The two are believed to have coordinated operations in Idlib and HTS has escorted Turkish troops into the province at least four times in the past month." newsdeeply.com

https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/articles/2017/10/23/hostility-toward-militants-grows-in-idlib-as-turkey-deploys-troops

-----------

IMO the new Sublime Porte speaks with Forked Tongue.  How's that for a mixed metaphor?  Sultan Tayyip and his band of neo-Ottomans harbor irredentist dreams with regard to the more or less united lands of the empire as it once was.  .  The Russians have fed them a slice of Syria both in Idlib Province and northeast of  Aleppo City.  It is reported that the Turkish military is occupying eight garrison positions in Idlib including two air bases.  Good luck on getting them to withdraw to Turkey once they are well installed.  pl

 

US policy in Islamdom is a chaos. Part 1

The accompanying map does not include India as a  country deeply affected by Islam and Islamicate civilization.  IMO that is a defect.  The terms "Islam," Islamdom," and "Islamicate Civilization." were clarified by the great historian of Islam, Marshell Hodgson.

This is my editorial opinion.

 ------------

 Syria.  The US persists in its nonsensical policy of regime change in Syria.  McGurk, the State Department lead in Syrian affairs is evidently one of the leaders of this foolishness.  The Syrian Government's forces have regained control of most of the country with the help of their Russian, Iranian, Hizbullah, Palestinian and Christian militia allies.   In spite of this the US MSM studiously ignores the efforts of the SAA and allies (R+6).  They are simply never mentioned.  They have been edited out of the US narrative.  Whether DJT has a side agreement with Putin over Syria seems not to affect the MSM narrative at all.  McGurk's statement that the Syrian government would not be allowed into Raqqa City is an announcement of an extra-legal interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign UN member state.  Do we intend to hold Raqqa forever and to what purpose?

Iraq.  In Iraq we have for the moment abandoned the interests of the KRG in its evident desire for independence from Baghdad.  We have done this in spite of outrage expressed by our foreign policy mentors in Israel.  The Israelis are, of course, the chief sponsors of Kurdish statehood.   The Israelis follow a consistent pattern of policy of disrupting surrounding states with a view to reducing them to pastoral rug bazaars.  Our loyalty to the Baghdad government is amusing because it is virtually inevitable that the Shia run government of Iraq will eventually align itself with Iran and ask the US to withdraw from the country.

Iran.  DJT's decision to stop certifying Iranian compliance with JCPOA is merely a reflection of Zionist influence over the president and the hyper-belligerent attitudes of Mattis, and McMaster.  They are revealed as more neocon than the organizational neocons and largely in league with them.  US abandonment of JCPOA will lead to direct policy conflicts with major European allies and the loss of business for American companies like Boeing.   In the end this direction may lead to a US-Iran War as a culmination of Israeli machinations in Washington.

Saudi Arabia.  Trump prostrated himself and his country before the Saudis and the leaders of the Islamic World.  The Saudis expect that this was more than a symbolic and empty gesture.  Saudi Arabia is a weak state in actual capabilities in the world  It is a state that the US will not need much longer as a source of petroleum.  The feebleness of the Saudi government is demonstrated by the ineffectual nature of its war in Yemen,  This genocide is being aided and abetted by the US government as part of its cartoon-like conception of basic social and political structures in Islamdom.  The Saudi government grows ever weaker as   a result of this war and decline in its monetized assets because of a growing surplus of petroleum in the world.  The Saudi princelings are not worth the effort being put into keeping them happy.

 Qatar.  US military operations in the ME are centered around the command and control facility at Al-Obeid in Qatar as well as the air base itself.  The air base is useful but is only one of many used by the US in the ME.  By siding with the Saudis DJT has de-stabilized the US relationsip with Qatar and is driving the Qataris in the direction of an pro-Iranian stance.  Would the US fight to keep al-Obeid?  The Saudis won't do it for the US.

Afghanistan.  DJT made a bad decision in deciding to persist in fighting to establish a coherent government in the country.  The aggressive and successful efforts of the taliban in the last week demonstrate the weakness of a government that has a negligible GDP and no ability to fund its own armed forces.  The defeat of that government is a certainty  when the US eventually withdraws it forces.  The various Afghan peoples are inherently unsuitable material for the formation of a coherent state.  DJT's flawed decision was based on the advice of his national security team.  McMaster, Mattis and Dunford are too powerful.  The US government is inherently a civilian government.  There are too many military men at the top just now.

Try to think past the MIC cult belief and the absurd conception of a US Deep State.

To be continued ... 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Hodgson

Kurdistan - yet another long term British and US policy triumph

 

" ... the Iraqi military announced that elite units had been "re-deployed" at the K1 base, about 5km (3 miles) north-west of the city of Kirkuk, and that other troops had taken control of the nearby Leylan area, the Baba Gurgur oilfield, and the headquarters of the North Oil Company.

The military also said troops had taken control of a military airport, police station, power plant and several industrial areas, as well as key bridges, roads, junctions.

The Kurdistan Region Security Council accused Baghdad of launching an "unprovoked attack" and said the Peshmerga would "continue to defend Kurdistan, its peoples and interests".

Peshmerga had destroyed five US-made Humvees used by the Popular Mobilisation, a paramilitary force dominated by Iran-backed Shia militias, it added."  BBC

--------------

Iraq was created as a by-product of the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War One (1914-1918).  The present territory of Iraq had been ruled by the Ottoman Turks for several hundred years.  At Versailles the British were given what is now Iraq as a "mandatory territory" with the intention that the area be made independent at some point in the future.  Britain decided to cobble together something called the "Kingdom of Iraq" in this mandatory area.  There was no Iraqi People when this state was created.  There was no group that thought of itself as Iraqi.  There were a number of distinct populations that had little in common;  Arab Sunni Muslims, Arab Shia Muslims,  Kurdish Sunni Muslims, Kurdish Shia Muslims, Kurdish Yaziidis, Turcomans, Assyrian Christians, Chaldean Christians and Jews.  None of these groups particularly liked each other.  Nor did they like the Hashemite prince that the British installed as their king.

Soon after Iraqi independence was granted in 1925 revolts against the central government's authority began.  Kurdish revolts, Arab Revolts, etc.  Kurdish and Arab revolts had actually begun before 1925 in the period of direct British rule.  The British had actually exiled the Barzani of the day to India.  The Kurds of NE Iraq have been more or less in some form of revolt since 1925.  There have been periods when either the Talabani or Barzani Kurds have formed temporary alliances with the Baghdad government usually in an effort to screw the other major Kurdish faction but in general the pattern of resistance to Arab rule has been persistent.

The history of the State of Iraq from 1925 until the destruction of the state by the US in 2003 was characterized by a continual effort by the various Baghdad government to create an Iraqi national identity that subsumed the various groups that had happened to be in what became Iraq's sovereign territory.  IMO the emergence of Iraqi Man was still a work in progress when US invasion halted the process.

A new Iraqi state emerged under US occupation and covert Iranian tutelage.  This state is dominated by Shia Arabs.  IMO if a choice must be made in the future between the US as a sponsor or Iran the Shia government will turn away from the US and face east.  The Borgists believe that the US should have refused to withdraw its forces from Iraq and that the US will be able to refuse a future Iraqi demand for US withdrawal.  It is a big mistake to think the US could do that.  A refusal would inevitably lead to another country wide guerrila rebellion against the US.

In the present circumstance the US has encouraged both the KRG and the Baghdad government to think that it is our one true love.  Since these two historic actors have mutually exclusive and deeply held goals and desires, that  was a very foolish thing for the US to do. 

Will there be a secessionist war?  Probably there will be such a war.  The oil in the north of Iraq certainly exacerbates the crisis since the new Kurdish state would need the income to survive. 

As Churchill said. "just one damned thing after another."  pl

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41631697

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan