Sic Semper Tyrannis

What is this Administration’s real policy towards Syria? - TTG

I doubt we have to worry about Nikki Haley or even her handler/assistant, Jon Lerner. Most of what they can do at the UN is the equivalent of howling from the trees and flinging their poo at people passing by. Now Brian Hook and his Iran Action Group (IAG) may actually be capable of biting. In addition to the IAG, there is another dangerous beast, James Jeffrey, the State Department’s special representative for Syria. Two days ago, Jeffrey spelled out the Trump Administration’s present policy towards Syria quite clearly.

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The US will not withdraw its military presence from Syria, as announced by the US special representative for Syria, James Jeffrey on September 6th.

According to Jeffrey, the Trump administration is shifting towards a more expansive plan for Syria that involves not just the defeat of ISIS, but also reducing Iranian influence and preventing Bashar al-Assad from consolidating power.

According to James Jeffrey, President Donald Trump supports the strategy that envisions an indefinite military and diplomatic presence in Syria, contrary to the President’s previous inclination to withdraw US troops after defeating ISIS.

“The new policy is we’re no longer pulling out by the end of the year,” he told reporters in Washington. Initially the 2,200 US troops deployed to eastern Syria in support of the multi-national coalition against ISIS was supposed to leave. Instead, they will remain in support of a combined military and diplomatic effort to limit Iranian and Russian influence over post-war reconstruction. “That means we are not in a hurry,” Jeffrey said, adding that he was “confident” Trump supports what he called a “more active approach” in Syria.

As reported by the Daily Caller, the strategy had reportedly been under consideration for within the Trump administration for months, however it was not employed mostly because of Donald Trump’s reluctance to deepen the US involvement in Syria.

As reported by Hurriyet daily news, James Jeffrey’s remarks also hint at a more active US diplomacy against the Bashar al-Assad rule and its main supporters, Russia and Iran, in the new term. This new policy has already been observed at the U.N. Security Council in the last few days where the US, France and Britain have taken a very sharp position against the potential use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government in Idlib and elsewhere in the country.  (SouthFront)

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At some point even the most ardent Trump acolyte will have to admit this is now Trump’s policy. It is not something done by the neocons, the deep state, the anonymous resister or the ghost of John McCain without Trump's acquiescence. He is not some clueless, oblivious Governor Willian J. LePetomane. Trump may not give a rat’s ass about Israel, the Palestinians or Assad, but he has a real hard on against Iran or to be more exact, Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. It’s all personal. The recently stated Syria policy is all about Iran. Now he’s tweeting warnings to Assad and Putin to leave Idlib alone. He’s not thinking geopolitically. It’s becoming more personal with every tweet. If Putin and Assad defy Trump’s tweet warnings, as they surely will, he’s liable to strike back in rage. And all those around him will goad him on. And then, good buddy, the shit will truly be on.

TTG

https://southfront.org/us-officially-admits-its-not-going-to-withdraw-forces-from-syria/

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-syria-idlib-strikes-20180904-story.html#

"A country where an immigrant Sikh girl can become a neocon ambassador" Anon.

 

"In her statement during the UN Security Council briefing, Haley said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and its “enablers,” Russia and Iran have a playbook for the war in Syria. First, they surround a civilian area. Next, they make the “preposterous claim that everyone in the area is a terrorist,” thus making all civilians targets. That is followed by a “starve and surrender” campaign, during which Syrian security forces keep attacking until the people no longer have food, clean water, or shelter. “It’s a playbook of death. The Assad regime has spent the last seven years refining it with Russia and Iran’s help.”

According to her it has happened many times before, in July 2018 it happened in Dara’a and the southwest of Syria, where Syrian forces “trapped and besieged civilians.” In February 2018, it was Ghouta. In 2017 it was Aleppo, and prior to that places like Madaya and Hama.

According to her, Assad’s government has left the country in ruins. “The atrocities committed by Assad will be a permanent stain on history and a black mark for this Council – which was blocked over and over by Russia from taking action to help,” Nikki Haley said."  SF

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Well, strictly speaking, her parents were immigrants, not she.  She was born in Bamberg, South Carolina, a little town in the Piedmont that is majority Black.  Her parents were professional people at Amritsar in the Punjab.  Haley is the surname of her husband.  Nikki is a nickname by which she has long been known.  As governor, she was in favor of flying the Confederate flag on the Statehouse grounds before the Charleston massacre of Black Christians at a Bible study session.  They were killed by an unstable white teen aged misfit whom they had invited to join their worship.  After that Nikki discovered that the Confederate flag was a bad and disruptive symbol.  It was a popular position across the country and Nikki became an instant "hit," the flavor of the month so to speak.

I suppose that she was supposed to be an interesting and decorative figure as UN ambassador.  She is quite pretty and the South Carolina accent adds to the effect.

The positions she has taken at the UN with regard to the ME are similar to those expressed by her boss, President Trump.  They are largely reflections of images projected by the popular and mass media operating as Zionist propaganda machines.  I don't believe that the State Department's INR analytic bureau believes the crapola that she spouts with such hysteric fervor.  I don't believe that my former friend David Satterfield believes the crapola.  So, where does she get ideas like the ones quoted above?  IMO she is trying to out-Trump Trump.  DJT is a remarkably ignorant man concerning the geo-politics of just about everything in the ME.  He appears to have once seen the film, "Exodus" and to have decided on the basis of Paul Newman's performance as Begin that the situation was and is quite simple - Israel good!  Everyone else bad!  Nikki's depth of  knowledge appears to be just about the same.

She also appears to me to be in receipt of a stream of opinion from various Zionist and anti-Muslim groups probably related to the anti-Muslim ravings of Maronite and other Christian ME extremists.

These groups cannot seem to understand that alliances shift as does policy.  They don't seem to understand that Israel's policy in Syria is no longer regime change.  They never seem to have understood that the Syrian government is the protector of the religious minorities against Sunni jihadi fanatics.

They don't seem to understand that the Syrian government has no choice but to recover Idlib Province, a piece of Syria's heartland.  pl

https://southfront.org/us-ambassador-to-un-goes-wild-claims-russia-syria-iran-seek-to-kill-civilians-destroy-schools-and-hospitals-in-idlib/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikki_Haley

US to lead Security Council talks on Iran in late September: Haley

 

"With the United States now holding the presidency of the Security Council, Haley said the aim is to put further pressure on Tehran over its alleged violations of council resolutions.

"President (Donald) Trump is very adamant that we have to start making sure that Iran is falling in line with international order," Haley told reporters.

"If you continue to look at the spread Iran has had in supporting terrorism, if you continue to look at the ballistic missile testing that they are doing, if you continue to look at the sales of weapons we see with the Huthis in Yemen -- these are all violations of security council resolutions," she said.

"These are all threats to the region, and these are all things that the international community needs to talk about."

Washington has sought to build up international pressure on Iran after reimposing tough, unilateral sanctions on August 7 and setting a November 5 deadline for halting Iran's oil exports."  Al Monitor

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This sounds like a disaster in the making.

If past behavior is a guide to the future, the emperor Donald I will seek to bully the Security Council into accepting universal application of his program of intimidation against Iran.  The spectacle of him in the chair glowering at the assembled heads of state is a prospect beyond anything seen as yet in his ham-handed attempts at imposing his fantasies upon the world.,

If he fails in demonstrating the triumph of his will, it should be expected that he will proceed to further withdraw funds from the UN as a punitive disciplinary move imposed to enforce his decrees in the future. 

In my opinion Bibi is telling him that all that is needed is a firm hand.  PL

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/afp/2018/09/un-us-iran-politics-sanction.html

The political prep for Idlib is completed.

Turkey has abandoned support for HTS (al-Qa'ida in Syria).  Iran states its complete support for a Syrian government offensive to recover the province.  Russia has stated that Syria has the right to expel "terrorists" from Idlib Province.  The "terrorists" will be the backbone of resistance to government authority.  The Russian Navy is massed in the Mediterranean near Syria.  SAA forces are massed  and in position for the offensive.

It would seem that Trump will soon have decisions to make about US actions in Syria.  pl  

https://southfront.org/turkey-finally-designates-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-as-terrorist-group/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/clear-terrorists-from-idlib-says-irans-zarif-in-damascus-video/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-govt-has-every-right-to-liquidate-terrorists-in-idlib-lavrov/

Secret US-Syria talks revealed?

" ... a senior US officer (sic) led a delegation that included officers (best read as officials) from several US intelligence and security agencies. Ali Mamlouk welcomed the visiting delegation, along with the head of the General Intelligence Directorate, Major General Deeb Zeitoun, and the Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Major General Mowafaq Asaad.

The meeting between the two sides continued for four hours. What happened?

According to information obtained by the Lebanese «Al-Akhbar» newspaper, the two sides reviewed the various aspects of the Syrian crisis and its stages of development and repercussions in the region, before talking to the most important topic.

The American side made a clear and specific offer: The United States is ready to withdraw its troops completely from Syrian territory, including the Al-Tanf and Eastern Euphrates according to security arrangements supervised by the Russian and Syrian armies. In exchange for three US demands:

 

First, Iran’s full withdrawal from the Syrian south.

 

Second, to obtain written guarantees that give US companies a share of the oil sector in the regions of eastern Syria.

 

Third, the Syrian side to provide the Americans with full data of the terrorist groups and their members, including the numbers of foreign fighter deads of these groups and those who survived, and those may return to Western countries, considering that «the terrorist threat is intercontinental. And what we can get, serve the international security.»  Syriana-analysis

 

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Assuming that all this  happened the question arises for me of the sponsorship of the initiative.

 

This does not sound like a DoD sponsored idea.  IMO the generals and admirals are still intent on continuing the war with an expectation of arriving at a position in which they do not lose face.  They have lost or are losing the war in Afghanistan having predictably failed in COIN again.  In Iraq their COINista efforts resulted in the birth and growth if the Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria.  The generals are badly in need of a win to maintain their prestige and the continued acceptance of monstrously big budgets in the future.  Having presented budgets to Congress I assure that the process is helped if you are seen as a winner.  Even little me.

 

The neocons were surely not behind this.  Assad and company are supposed to depart into the fiery depths of hell. The idea of Bonkers Bolton and Pompeo (first in his class) being for something as rational as this is just too much.

 

My WAG (educated guess) is that this started as an Israeli thought.  The SW frontier zone is now firmly in SAA, UN and Russian control.  The Israelis now accept that there will not be regime change in Damascus, and that the Russians will keep Assad's government "on the reservation."  They still want what they see as the Iranian threat to be reduced.  It would be very interesting to know what was meant by "south Syria."  When this possible effort was exposed to Trump it is natural that he sought to make a few bucks ($$$) for the US out of the Syrian oil resources.  This is the way he thinks and it would be a natural reaction for him even though the US is now an oil and gas superpower.  After all, one must recover the money spent in Syria.  No?

 

My SWAG (up a notch from WAG) is that Trump gave the go ahead over the objections of various parties and that the CIA was told to carry the water in this task.  They would IMO be quite willing.  They and the other IC barons would salivate mightily at the thought of Syrian intelligence data holdings on the jihadis.

 

I hope folks have stayed in touch.  pl

https://www.syriana-analysis.com/details-of-secret-syrian-american-security-meeting-in-damascus/

"Russian diplomat warns US sanctions against Iran to destabilize Middle East" AMN

 

"Resumption of anti-Iranian sanctions by the US is a destructive step that might bring about destabilization in the Middle East, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s official spokesperson Maria Zakharova told a news briefing on Thursday."

“Washington’s course at bringing down the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] on the Iranian nuclear program and restoring full-scale pressure through sanctions is absolutely destructive,” she said. 

“There’s scarcely any doubt these steps by the US administration will have long-term deplorable consequences for global nonproliferation [of the weapons of mass destruction] and will impart a destabilizing impulse to the situation in the Middle East.”"  AMN

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IMO Zakharova, the Russian spokesperson has it right. 

The Israeli desire to have a less than 1% chance of an Iranian nuke existing has led us to adopt sanctions that may well bring down the present Iranian government.  Unrest is growing across the country because of ever growing economic hardship.  We claim that regime change is not our goal but I do not believe it.  IMO Gina Haspel has been given a presidential finding that orders CIA to bring down the government and the sanctions are just part of that attempted coup. 

The Iranians have every reason to distrust the US.  First there was Mossadegh.  Kermit Roosevelt brought him down by manipulating street mobs.  Secondly there is the undoubted fact that we backed Iraq against them in the Iran-Iraq War.  Now we have abandoned JCPOA, an agreement that IMO was good for everyone except the extreme right in Israel and their neanderthal friends in the US (Hannity, Varney, Keane, Pompeo etc.)  Bolton I will not even mention in that list because he is such an extremist, a man who hungers for war, a man who hid from VN in the Maryland National Guard.  The CIA is just doing its legally ordained task but the rest of them seem to have no comprehension of the chaos that will occur if wilayet al-faqih falls. 

Trump,  Bolton and Giuliani seems to want the Mujahideen e Khalq to become the government of Iran.  This passel of Islamic Marxists (spawn of Ali Shariati) actually fought against Iran as allies of Saddam's Iraq.  That has never been forgotten.  Why would it be?  In fact they would be destroyed in short order of they attempted to form a government.

There is no other coherent body who could form a government.  But, from the Israeli point of view that would be just fine.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-diplomat-warns-us-sanctions-against-iran-to-destabilize-middle-east/

A "Tour d'horizon" of the ME - Lang's opinion

1.  Saudi Arabia has expelled Canada's ambassador and recalled its own for consultations.  It has halted any new business with Canada and stopped giving any new Saudi scholarships to its nationals for study in Canada.  'Adil Jubair (aka The Chihuaha, FM of THE KINGDOM) has taken umbrage with the statements of Chrystia Freeland and Le Petit Justin.   This happy couple said they were unhappy at Saudi governmental nastiness to women's rights activists.  Good heavens!  How dare the Saudis act like that in this modern age, an age filled with Canadian liberal values and Chrystia's well known disdain for local governments.

2.  The SAA is mopping up the jihadi population in east Suweida province.  These jihadis will probably be processed locally into soil enrichments as part of the Greater Syrian Desert Soil Bank program.  Their attack on several Druze villages this weekend with attendant rapine and massacre sealed their fate.

3.  At the same time the SAA and friends (R+6) continue to deploy to the north for the soon to be general offensive against NE Latakia and all of Idlib Province.  Air preparation of key terrain and targets is underway.  This will intensify as D-Day approaches.  At the same time assassinations of key jihadi figures is occurring all over the Idrib-Latakia-Afrin District area.  Some of this is murderous cannibalistic rebels.  Some is Kurdish in nature, but IMO a lot of these are operations of the commando units of Syrian military intelligence who have been more and more active in enemy occupied territory both in ambushes and reconnaissance.  The troop list for the big push is going to include kampfgruppen made up of tailored combinations of most of Syria's quality units and it will be armor heavy.  Tiger Forces teams, 4th Armored Division. Republican Guard, Syrian Marines,  these will all be represented.

4. China is teasing us all with the idea that it may send troops to participate in the Idlib offensive.  Their twin objectives would probably be to insure a foot in the door with the SAG for contracts in reconstruction as well as a desire to kill as many Uighur Muslims as possible in Idlib before they escape and return to western China.

5.  Trump's faithful execution of Israeli policy will result in re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran tomorrow.  The UK, France and Germany have announced that they will not be governed by these sanctions and IMO Trump will not have the stones to sanction these actual American allies. This will be another instance of Trump learning that intimidating countries is a different game than making hotel project deals.  In the case of tariffs the EU caved in what can be seen as bi-lateral negotiations but in this case accepting American orders to reimpose sanctions will be  seen as acceptance of a servile position.  The US position with regard to desired Iranian concessions includes acceptance of a statehood bereft of foreign policy or foreign interventions of any kind.  This is a maximum Israeli position that has been sold to Trump ,the real estate guy, by his donors and family.  Pompeo and Bolton, the neocons, are fully on board as well.  DoD is supportive.  Mattis is always seeking a childish revenge against the Iranians for their actions in Iraq.

6.  On the Palestine Front Jared has been swanning around the Arab World seeking to have them all accept an end to Palestinian support by UNWRA.  He, and the Israelis want the Palestinians deprived of the status of refugees so that they can be said to have no right of return to their ancestral homes in Palestine. With the exception of Jordan, the Arab States have always refused to make the refugees citizens of their countries.  The Palestinians are a distinct ethnic group among the Arab Peoples.  The Israelis hate that idea and have always insisted that the Palestinians could be easily absorbed in the Arab countries.  In fact, they have always been a profoundly disruptive political group in the Arab countries and are not desirous of absorption.  The general ignorance in the Trump Administration of anything resembling the history and nature of the ME continues to make ridiculous all the efforts of Trump & Co. to make peace among peoples of whom they know nothing except whatever the neocons and Zionists tell them  King Salman of Saudi Arabia has rejected the Jared Peace Plan and he is only the first to do so.  There will many.

7.  Trump, Mattis and Co. want to form a Sunni Arab version of NATO united against Iran.  This would include the GCC plus Egypt and Jordan.  Words fail me at the blind ignorance of this idea.  All these countries will gladly accept Saudi money.  That does not mean they will accept Saudi leadership in anything.  This has been proven over and over again.

8.  Yemen? We are assisting a genocidal war.  What else can be said?  pl

Let Mikey do it? Maybe not.

 "Pompeo then listed some preconditions for the meeting to take place. 

“If the Iranians demonstrate a commitment to make fundamental changes in how they treat their own people, reduce their malign behavior, can agree that it's worthwhile to enter into a nuclear agreement that actually prevents proliferation, then the president said he's prepared to sit down and have the conversation with them,” Pompeo said.

His remarks came just hours after Trump held a joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, declaring in front of reporters that he would meet with Tehran with “no preconditions.”

“It’s good for the country, good for them, good for us and good for the world. No preconditions. If they want to meet, I’ll meet,” Trump said.

The president added that he wasn’t sure “if they’re ready yet.”

“I do believe that they will probably end up wanting to meet,” Trump said. “And I’m ready to meet any time they want to. And I don’t do that from strength or from weakness. I think it’s an appropriate thing to do.”"  The Hill

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 IMO Mikey Pompeo  suffers from Smart Guy Syndrome.  My wife calls it Great Man Syndrome.  In both of these a delusion of centrality sets in based on a belief in one's own superiority.  This  rots the mind.  Mikey has always been the smartest kid in the room.  You know his resumé.  And, pilgrims, he has a smiley face welded onto his real sharkey face.  These attributes have carried him far but he has a weakness or two.  He really does think he is a being above the ken of mortal men AND he is a hyper-nationialist neocon ideologue through and through and in many ways immune to appeals to reason.  He surely think thatTrump is a dolt.  Look at the picture.   He has contradicted the president several times.  This is a very dangerous thing to do.  Trump is a reality based self-centered hustler who is used to dealing with supercilious p---ks who want to manipulate him.

Now Mikey has John-John Bolton as ally and playmate.  Bolton is, IMO, more than a little crazy.  Bolton loves his place in an NSC made over into extensions of his neocon craziness.  He thinks that e has the Iranians right where he wants them  He believes that we could fight a maritime campaign in the Gulf with next to no losses and that if necessary we can bomb the Iranian people into unleashing their economic deprivation wrath against the mullahs.

Pompeo agrees with him.  He is trying to keep the president buttered up while pursuing his shared goals with Bolton both cleverly and surreptitiously. Well, folks, Trump is a master of the art of BS detection.  Those who try to fool him are taking a great risk.

Off to  one side in this drama, stand the inbred caste of generals and admirals.  Trump professes to admire them, but Mattis, Dunford and CENTCOM are steadily losing real power in the contest for the president's attention.  IMO there will be a unifying deal between Damascus and the YPG Kurds and Trump knows all about progress toward that goal.  Do the generals want that?  No.  They have their own desired foreign policy.  They want to make the casualties of the last 15 years meaningful through victory somewhere, anywhere would do.  They also want revenge against Iran for men lost in Iraq.  They listen to the Israelis far too much.

IMO Trump has a private line of communication to Russia.  This is perfectly legal and probably is conducted over CIA communications links or through the ambassador in Moscow, Jon Huntsman or both.

Pompeo may or may not know what is being said in those channels.  pl  

 http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/399597-pompeo-sets-conditions-for-iran-meeting-after-trump-says-hell-meet

More thoughts on Trump and his thinking - 12 July 2018

1.  First he beat up the oh, so sensitive Europeans, then he claimed they would spend 4% of GDP on defense.  In response the French then said, non, We will spend only 2%.  Well, that is what he wanted to hear.  He doesn't care at all if they think he is an uncultured lout.  He got what he wanted.

2.  He is not at all mollified about US/European trade imbalances.  Having seen the way they caved in and rolled over on the NATO defense spending he is more convinced than ever that they will cave in on trade concessions.  He has always worked this methodology and it has by and large succeeded.  It seems to be working again.  Kay Bailey Hutchison will soon be gone from her post as ambassador to NATO.  She is nothing like tough enough for him.

3.  Teresa May faces a stark choice.  Either, she gives up her crypto-resistance to Brexit and seeks a bi-lateral trade deal with the US or he will join the forces actively seeking to drive her from office.  Trump is unlikely to forgive and forget over the backdoor reception he got in England.  No amount of toot-tooting by the Scots Guards at Blenheim Palace will make good his anger at being snubbed.

4.  He is looking for a deal with Russia on any number of fronts. He will largely accept Russia's views on the supposed use of gas by the Syrians.

5.  Israel has signaled its abandonment of regime change in Syria, settling instead for an exclusion of R+6 forces from anything west of UNDOF lines B & C.  Bibi actually told Putin at their meeting recently  that he would "deliver" the US on reduction of sanctions against Russia if Russia abandoned tacit support of an Iranian presence in Syria.  Trump will have heard of this and will greatly resent Natanyahu's presumption.

6.  He and Putin will agree on a modus vivendi in Syria.  After mopping up in the SW, the R+6 will move in force to the task of liberating Idlib Province.  Trump will do nothing about that.  That will be part of his deal with Russia.  pl

What is John Bolton's role in Trump's ME drama?

(editorial)

On a gestalt basis it seems to me from all the bits and pieces of information and rumor that DJT is attempting "The Deal of the Century!" (an episode or two of his soon to be award winning series, "The Greatest President.")

Russian cooperation in this is clearly needed.  Trump is blessedly lacking in ideological fervor.  His Deplorable base is also a bit short on ideology being focused on wages, prices, taxes and other everyday living issues.  Their patriotism expresses itself in devotion to the flag and the anthem and a willingness to serve in the armed forces, something increasingly absent in the "resistance."

Trump has a free hand from his base to negotiate peaceful coexistence with Russia, but he nevertheless must successfully deal with the passion of the neocon wing of the Borg (foreign policy establishment).  They still swoon at the thought of the ongoing renewal of the Cold War.

John Bolton is an arch-neocon, a neocon's neocon.  Trump has sent him to Moscow to arrange an agenda, date and location for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.  IMO this is a stroke of genius.  What it does is put an enemy of good US-Russia relations in charge of arranging the schedule for discussions to improve US-Russia relations.  In LBJ's vulgarism, Bolton is going to be inside the tent peeing out rather than outside peeing in.  Having arranged the meeting, he will be personally invested in its success.  How sweet that is!

Trumps is IMO trying for a grand ME bargain to be achieved with Russian help:

1.  Peace in Syria in the context of abandonment of regime change.  Trump the pragmatist recognizes that the R+6 forces have won the civil war and, therefore he wishes to accept the sunk costs of previous American ineptitude in Syria and to walk away.  US Embassy Amman has signaled to the FSA rebels in SW Syria that they should not expect the US to defend them.  This is a traditional American stab in the back for guerrilla allies but the warning indicates to me that some group in the US Government (probably the CIA) has enough conscience to want to give warning.  As soon as that warning was issued the rate of surrenders to the SAA rose.

2.  The US has thus made it clear that the SAA and Russian forces in Syria have a free hand in the SW and it seems that Israeli air and missile attacks are unlikely against the SW offensive.  This has been insured through a Russian mandate that Hizbullah and IRGC dominated Shia militias stay out of the fight in Deraa and Quneitra Provinces.

3. The Egyptians have been talking to Hamas about their willingness to enter into a hudna (religiously sanctioned truce) with Israel.  Hamas has frequently offered this before.  Such truces are renewable and are often for 10 years.  Kushner's team thinks it has attained Natanyahu's support for this.  The deal would supposedly include; a Gaza-Egyptian industrial zone in the area of Raffa, an airport, a seaport.  In return Hamas would be expected to police the truce from their side of the border.  People on SST who have deep access in Israel doubt the sincerity of apparent Israeli assent, but there is little doubt I think that DJT considers this part of the Grand Bargain he is attempting to forge.  

Nowhere in any of this is anything concerning Iran and I assume that regime change remains the policy.  Nor is there anything about Saudi Arabia and the UAE's mercenary manned war in Yemen.  Ah, well, pilgrims, everything in its time.  pl  

Syria and Turkey Notes - 19 June 2018

 

(editorial)

The US Senate has passed into law a restriction against selling US made equipment to Turkey so long as Turkey persists in its purchase of the Russian S400 SAM system.  The Turkish response as voiced by their Prime Minister and Foreign Minister is basically to tell us to go to hell (paraphrasing).  The Turkish PM has also stated that after their success in jawboning the US over Manbij they intend to move on toward the east to Kobane, Hasakah, Qamishli and parts east in Iraq.   These pronouncements on their part have the flavor of statements from the Ottoman Sultan's throne.   Does anyone seriously doubt that Turkey's intention is to give Syria and Iraq a "haircut" by effectively and probably by annexation eventually moving the border south some distance.  This kind of thing is common in the Islamic World where state boundaries are generally thought of as tentative.  A NATO ally?  What a joke.  I suppose that we cling to NATO as a tool in our crusade against Russia.  The Turks know that and are using the knowledge.

Heather Nauert and Pompeo el-Magnifico have now warned Syria and Russia against an offensive in the SW of SYRIA.  They cite the de-escalation agreement that thr Russians negotiated as though it was a cease-fire protecting the jihadis and FSA rebels who the Israelis treasure so much as a buffer to the east of the forts on the Occupied Syrian Golan Heights (Hauran).  The threats posed by Nauert and Pompeus Maximus are clear.  They are saying that if the SAA attacks to recover its territory the US will attack them in defense of Israel.

At the same time CNN has been told that the air attacks on Syrian and Iraqi forces SE of Al-Bukamal were conducted by Israel itself and not the "Coalition."  Pilgrims, these targets are in the far SE corner of Syria where the main road crosses into Iraq and then reaches Iran by various roads in Iraq.  the Israelis are clearly terrified of the logistic and trade implications of that road.  pl 

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-pm-says-kobane-hasakah-qamishli-are-next-targets-after-manbij/

https://southfront.org/us-senate-to-ban-weapon-supplies-to-turkey-over-its-s-400-deal-with-russia-turkey-responds/

ttps://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-blocking-f-35-sale-wont-stop-turkey-from-acquiring-s-400-systems-pm/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-state-dept-reveals-details-of-pompeo-lavrov-conversation-on-syria/

 https://southfront.org/june-18-strike-on-syrian-forces-near-al-bukamal-was-carried-out-by-israel-us-official/

 

Yemen as exemplar - Re-published 7 June 2018

"Yemeni Shi'ite Muslim Houthi fighters backed by government forces drove the local wing of al Qaeda from one of its last strongholds in central Yemen on Friday in intense fighting that killed at least 35 people, tribal sources said.

The Houthis' Ansarullah movement has become the main political force in Western-allied Yemen since capturing Sanaa in September and then pushing south and west into the Sunni Muslim heartland of al-Bayda province, where Ansar al-Sharia has allied itself with local tribes. 

Yemen has been in turmoil since 2011, to the dismay of neighboring Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, and of the Western powers who want to prevent instability in the Arabian peninsula threatening their crude supplies or giving al Qaeda a base for overseas attacks. 

Tribal sources said the Houthis had met stiff resistance as they pushed towards the village of Khobza district using Katuysha rockets and heavy artillery. 

They said at least 25 Houthis and 10 Ansar al-Sharia and tribal fighters had died in the fighting, which began on Thursday afternoon. Ansar al-Sharia and its allies withdrew to Yakla district, on the border with Maarib province."  Reuters

-----------

Full disclosure - I was once DEFATT in Yemen at Sanaa.

 A primer on some aspects of Yemen:

- Zeidi (fiver) Shia  Muslims are so conservative (restrained) religiously that they are sometimes thought of as a fifth Sunni mathab.  Their theology and general view of the religious sciences follow the mu'tazilite tradition.  They are quite distinct from and have little allegiance to the 12er Shia in Iran, Lebanon and other scattered places.

- From a few miles south of Sanaa to the northern reaches of the country where it "borders" Saudi Arabia the country is almost altogether Zeidi Shia in population.  Those people are tough little mountaineers, who are extremely tribal in their lives and who are generally aligned in two major tribal confederations, the Baqil and the Hashid.  These tribal confederations are the real power in Yemen north of Sanaa.  they possess a lot of military equipment that was mainly stolen from the government when officers who are members of these confederations defected back to their true allegiance taking their gear and often soldiers with them.

- The former president, Ali Abdullah Salih, was a Zeidi tribesman of the Sanhan minor tribe of the Hashid confederation.

 - From Sanaa south, Yemen is primarily inhabited by much less tribal villagers who are Sunni and usually of the shafa'i mathab.  These folks are the recruiting ground for AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia and similar Sunni salafi jihadi groups for whom the Zaidi tribesmen of the north are just another kind of murtadoon (heretics) to be fought to the death.

- Further complicating the mozaic of groups that is Yemen is the lingering effect of British possession of the Aden crown colony for many years.  In the course of that period a lot of Yemenis from Aden attended such schools as the London School of Economics where they became  both atheistical  and left wing politically.  Such people are still on the scene in the cities and continue to be active in the government of a united Yemen.

- The Houthis are a Zeidi Shia reformist movement that draws solely on the Zeidi population of the north.  It does not have and cannot have any friendly relations with the Sunni jihadi groups of the south.  The movement started in the al-houthi clan and has since spread to the two major confederations of Zeidi tribesmen.  The Houthis as a cult prefer not to fight if it can be avoided and captured the capital, Sanaa, with very little violence.  Salih, a Zeidi tribesman understandably sides with the Houthis as opposed to the Sunni, left oriented people now running the government of the United Yemen.

- A government of national unity has been formed among; the Houthis and their army, the national army and the nationalist/left dominated functionaries now in office in Sanaa.  This coalition is actively and successfully fighting the Sunni jihadis.

The US government response to all this is to denounce the Houthis and Salih as interfering with stability and the integrity of the Yemeni state.  This reflects the ignorant, obsessive, insistence of the American foreign policy establishment that "one size fits all" in terms of the norms of governance across the world with the implication that the US embassies in such countries as Yemen are actually pro-consular outposts from which the ambassador/governor guides and controls the province/country in which he/she is located.  When this attitude, derived from notions of "exceptionalism," is accompanied by the IR/Poly Sci paradigm of foreign relations now so evident in the US government, the result is the noxious self-defeating  environment in which US decisions are now made.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/14/us-yemen-security-idUSKCN0IY1Q120141114

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansar_al-Sharia_(Yemen)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthis

 

Translation of the Houthi logo:

"God is Great

Death to America

Death to Israel

Rejection by God of the Jews

Victory for Islam."

 

You should not take the words in this too seriously.  This is standard populist cant in the Muslim World.  pl

 

Possible diplomatic breakthrough in southwest Syria - TTG

Several sources are reporting the arrival at an agreement among multiple parties that will leave Damascus and the SAA in full control of southwest Syria without the risk of a full scale conflagration involving Israel, Iran and the US-led coalition... and very likely Russia.

*************************

Russia and Israel have reportedly reached an unprecedented deal which would allow Bashar al-Assad’s forces to take remaining rebel territory in southern Syria - so long as Iranian fighters do not participate.

Moscow appears to have capitulated to Israeli demands to hold back Tehran-backed militias 15 miles from the occupied Golan Heights, according to Israeli and Saudi reports. In return, Israel will not stand in the way of any Syrian regime offensive on the city of Deraa and territory along the Israeli and Jordanian border.

Russia said on Monday only Syrian army troops should be on the country's southern frontiers, which appeared to be directed at Iran.

The deal is said to have been finalised in a phone call days earlier between Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli defence minister, and Sergei Shoigu, his Russian counterpart. It averts a possible direct confrontation between Iran and Israel in Syria, where tensions have heightened between the foes in recent months.  (The Telegraph)

*************************

In a related article in “Newsweek” Russia and the US have agreed to the US forces leaving their base at Al-Tanf and have all rebels transferred to Idlib. In exchange the Syrian-Jordanian border crossings would be opened. All Syrian and non-Syrian militias would be withdrawn up to fifteen and a half miles from the Jordanian border. I assume the SAA would be stationed along this border.

This is a major win for Damascus and only a minor adjustment for Teheran. The Iranian affiliated militias still have plenty to do well to the west of Dara'a and the Golan. The only real losers in these deals would be the various jihadist rebels in the area. Without logistical and military support from Israel, Jordan and the rest of the US-led coalition, the rebels would have to face the best of the SAA on their own. Their choices are to seek reconciliation with Damascus, be shipped to Idlib with the rest of the jihadist leftovers or die in place at the hands of the Tiger Force and the rest of the flower of the SAA. The IS jihadists in the tri-border area will most likely die in place.

That Israel would give up their jihadist allies in exchange for a dozen or so miles of separation from Iranian backed militias and the IRGC indicates to me that they have no stomach for active conflict on the Golan front. Perhaps the last dust up in which the SAA fired back gave the IDF reason to rethink their long term strategy.

TTG

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/29/russia-israel-agree-deal-hold-back-iranian-militias-assad-prepares/

http://www.newsweek.com/us-military-will-give-major-syria-base-deal-russia-reports-say-948272

Pompeo as imperial proconsul

 

"Pompeo’s list of 12 requirements included many that Iran is highly unlikely to consider.

He said Iran must “stop enrichment” of uranium, which was allowed within strict limitations under the 2015 deal. Iran must also allow nuclear “unqualified access to all sites throughout the country,” Pompeo said, alluding to military sites that were off-limits under the 2015 deal except under specific circumstances. To that end, he also said Iran must declare all previous efforts to build a nuclear weapon, reopening an issue that the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency has already deemed a closed matter.

Pompeo also demanded that Iran cease from a range of activities throughout the Middle East that have long drawn the ire of the U.S. and its allies. He said Iran must end support for Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, “withdraw all forces” from Syria, halt support for its ally Hezbollah and stop threatening Israel.

Iran must also “release all U.S. citizens” missing in Iran or being held on “spurious charges,” he said."  The Mercury

--------------

Well, he may have been 1st in his class at USMA but he doesn't seem to have learned much since then.  Does this man listen to anyone other than his local, friendly AIPAC rep. when the ME is the subject?

The DJT Administration is doing a lot of things that are to my taste but their ME policy is completely under the control of Israel and its paranoia.  Do they imagine that Iran will meekly consent to being Morganthau-ized?  Do they really think that China, Russia and the EU can be bullied into screwing themselves economically by cutting off trade with Iran?  If so, this is a silly concept.

By implication it is clear that  there will be a serious attempt to subvert the Iranian government by further ruining the economy and encouraging armed revolt.  Well, pilgrims, Iran is a theocratic police state.  Good luck.

Gina Haspel will be given the job of fomenting revolt within Iran.  Good luch to her on that.  CIA has tried such things many time at the direction of various presidents.  They have a very mixed record.  pl 

http://www.pottsmerc.com/general-news/20180521/pompeo-issues-steep-demands-for-nuclear-treaty-with-iran

Iranian Green Berets… Brothers in Arms - TTG

The genesis of this article stems directly from Richard Sale’s recent piece on his experiences in pre and post revolutionary Iran. It reminded me of an artifact I kept from my days in ODA 334, 10th Special Forces then stationed at Fort Devens, Massachusetts. It is a worn and stained framed photo portrait print of the Shah of Iran. It’s decorated with an even more worn and stained ribbon in the Iranian national colors. A handwritten inscription in the corner reads, “To ODA 334, Many thanks and my deep respect. Pahlavi, Shah of Iran.” This was presented to the team after the completion of an MTT (mobile training team) deployment to Iran in the 1960s long before my or any of my team mates’ time in ODA 334.

That portrait and Richard’s article set me on a quest for more information about 10th Group’s connection to Iran. ODA 334’s deployment occurred in the early to mid 60s when the entire Group was still stationed at Bad Toelz, Germany. Four ODAs conducted MTTs to train the Iranian special forces over a two year period under a MAAG Iran (Military Assistance Advisory Group) program. 10th Group MTTs also trained Iranian Kurd fighters in the northern mountains as part of this MAAG program.

Fortuitously I found a documentary produced by the US Army Signal Corps Army Pictorial Service as an episode in their “The Big Picture” weekly television series. This episode, entitled “Assignment Iran,” chronicles the journey of Captain Paul Wineman, US Army Signal Corps, as he makes his way through the Special Forces Officers Course at Fort Bragg and the Defense Language Institute in Monterey before beginning his two year assignment with MAAG Iran to oversee the program to help the Iranian Army train a special forces group of its own. Watch the documentary. You will not only learn about this fascinating episode in US-Iranian military history, but you will also learn a great deal about the essence of our Green Berets.
 

     

The Iranian unit trained and the special forces school established by these 10th Group MTTs seem to have absorbed this Green Beret essence. This is the 65th Airborne Special Forces Brigade, a unit that has endured through the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and has sent its advisors to augment the IRGC advise and assist mission in Syria since 2016. The 65th NOHED Brigade (Farsi acronym  for airborne special forces) retains their rifle green berets. Their pre-Revolution insignia was very similar to the US Special Forces crest with its crossed arrows and dagger. The Brigade’s present day insignia retains those elements. They are not just commandos. The Brigade has sub-units dedicated to hostage rescue, psychological operations and UW (unconventional warfare). I found a YouTube video from 2017 with commentary from a 65th Brigade colonel and the daily activities of a captain and his troops from the Brigade. The video is in Farsi with no subtitles, but I found that captain and his troops' activities to be quite similar to my and my team's experiences at Fort Devens in the 80s… brothers in arms. Whether you understand Farsi or not, watch this video as well. If Babak or any other member of our committee of correspondence can provide some translation notes, I would be most appreciative. 

As a Green Beret, I’ve had the privilege of working with the Incursore of the Italian 9th Parachute Assault Regiment, the Legionnaires of the French 2nd Foreign Parachute Regiment and my brave brothers of the Lebanese 8th Infantry Brigade. Such experiences allow the mind of the simple soldier to transcend the pettiness of politics and the corrosiveness of nativism. In 2012, the 10th Group and the Russian 45th Guards Independent Reconnaissance Brigade (Spetsnaz) conducted joint training exercises in the US and Russia. Perhaps some day, that exchange can continue and the 10th Group and the 65th Brigade can do the same. What if they meet on the Euphrates? NOHED, Spetsnaz and Green Berets exchanging handshakes? Wouldn't that be a hoot? 

I hope others here find this as fascinating as I do. I would very much like to continue the discussion about our and Iran’s Green Berets. DOL   

TTG

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg48e9LWWwA  (Assignment Iran)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJepnbJ5j_M  (Iran NOHED 65th Airborne Special Forces Brigade)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/65th_Airborne_Special_Forces_Brigade_(Iran)

http://www.hamandishi.ir/news/242426/  (An article in Farsi published on 26 May 2018 largely consisting of an interview with the commander of the 65th NOHED Brigade. Run it through Google Translate to get the gist of it. There is a wealth of information there, even for us Farsi illiterates. Perhaps Babak can provide some nuanced comments.) 

 

Mookie and Nasrullah, a tale of two Shia

(editorial comment)

Muqtada al-Sadr.  When he led the Army of the Mahdi against US occupation of Iraq, American troops called him Mookie.  He was a nasty fat fils a papa and spawn of a distinguished Shia scholar.  In those days he  had very little in the way of religious credentials, but he summoned many who hoped for the return of the Shia Mahdi (perhaps the occulted Imam himself?) . The summoned 12ers often followed him and for a time his followers were a major problem for the US mission civilisatrice in the ME.  After all, how could one "get on" with the region-wide campaign to geld forces hostile to Israel when this pest with his "simple minded" fanatics opposed.  Sooo, a solution was devised.  The US Army and USMC massed their highly trained enlisted snipers against those awaiting the Mahdi and killed near on a thousand of them.   Mookie understood that it was only a matter of time for him personally.  When that happened he decided that Western style politics were not as bad as he had thought and went to Iran to work on his religious qualifications pending a return to politics in Iraq.  Babak will know but I recall that he became something like a Hojjat al-Islam.  Now he is back and somehow unaccountably at least mildly anti-Iranian.  He is the principal winner in the recent parliamentary election along with his communist party allies.  He now has the problem of finding enough coalition partners to form a government.  He cannot be PM because he did not win a seat himself, but will dictate the identity of the victim.  I would not be surprised if the US courts him, seeking a good relationship.  After all, he is supposedly anti-Iranian and that is the touchstone of American policy in the region, that, and indifference to the Palestinians.

Hassan Nasrullah.  Since the last Lebanese general election the US has steadfastly sought to obey Israeli guidance in opposing the presence of the Hizbullah Party, as opposed to the Hizbullah Army in the government of Lebanon.  Feltman and Satterfield were ambassador there throughout that period.  Feltman is a "coach" for Nikki at the UN and David Satterfield is now acting Assistant Secretary of State for the Near Est.  They brought him back from retirement for that.  He must have done an effective job in Lebanon.  In the recent election the March 8 Alliance (Hizbullah, Amal, Aounists, Druze, and various cats and dogs) seem to me to have 55 seats in parliament.  That appears to be a majority, and that coalition will dominate the new parliament.  This is a big problem for the US.  Hizbullah sits on Israel's northern border poised to rain fire and death on a wide range of Israeli targets of both the counter-value and counter-force types.  A big enough bombardment could cripple Eretz Israel for a long time.  Ah, no, I forgot.  Trump and the US branch of the Knesset would immediately vote an immense amount of borrowed money for Israel.  Ah, no, I forgot again. B-52s over the Tabbouleh Line would be another likely response.  pl

"U.S. Marines Shot to Kill" by Richard Sale

With Iran back in the news, I found this old file of mine from 1981. Thanks to The Washington Post, in 1976 I spent eight or nine weeks in Iran gathering notes for six front-page articles.  The discoveries I made were eye-opening. I had married an Iranian who was raised in England and had who had never gone back to Iran.

But I grew very close to her father who worked for the Shah, He taught me to love Iranian music, to learn passable Farsi, history and to love the Persian poets. My favorite was the poet Saadiq, from Shiraz, his was Hafez. I spent hours up in the Elborz Mountains.

We never discussed what I was up to, but I learned quickly by walking the streets.

I learned that the Israelis were running the torture chambers of the Shah’s secret police, the Savak.  I found that arms sales in country were being done by Bell Helicopter and other corporations who had moved into Iran from Vietnam.  (Bell people were known for riding their motorcycles through the big mosque in Isfahan. I got tons of death threats after my articles appeared.

I flew down to Shiraz to interview U.S. helicopter pilots who were flying secret military missions.  Outside Shiraz, you come across the ruins of Persepolis. Shiraz was noted for its beauty, for its reflecting canals and cypress trees. One night I went out late to mix with the people there.  I walked for three hours.   I had an eight o’clock meeting with a SAVAK official at breakfast.  I told him how I spent my evening, and he just stared for a moment then said, “I know.”

Why Is Israel Behaving Like Hitler's Germany? by Publius Tacitus

I wonder what is the Hebrew for the word Gleiwitz?

The Gleiwitz incident (German: Überfall auf den Sender Gleiwitz; Polish: Prowokacja gliwicka) was a covert Nazi German attack on the German radio station Sender Gleiwitzon the night of 31 August 1939 (today Gliwice, Poland), widely regarded as a deceitful false flag operation staged along with some two dozen similar German incidents on the eve of the invasion of Poland leading up to World War II in Europe.

The Israeli missiles launched yesterday (Wednesday/Thursday) against Iranian military forces in Syria were real. My old "friend" TTG did an excellent job of documenting the timeline of the attack/retaliation (see here) in his latest twisted post. But it was a trumped up attack. A pretext for hitting Iranian forces. Iran did not initiate this action. Israel claims it was retaliating against an unprovoked Iranian missile/rocket strike in the Golan Heights. 

Israel had been planning this strike for several days. How do I know? I received the following message from a military buddy monitoring the situation last Monday. He wrote:

Gina Haspel Will Cruise to Confirmation by Publius Tacitus

I do not know Gina Haspel. Although we were at the CIA at the same time. She just lasted longer than me. Some of my former colleagues refer to her as "Bloody Gina" for her role in the so-called Enhanced Interrogation program. What most of the world fails to understand about this period is that the CIA had zero experience with "interrogation" and found itself starting from ground zero in the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks. The CIA operators, i.e., those men and women who operate overseas trying to recruit foreigners to spy for us, are trained in the art of recruitment. This is akin to picking up a woman in a bar and convincing her to have sex with you. It is not rape. It should not be forced nor coerced. 

Gina went through the same training I did at the Farm and experienced the "Resistance to Interrogation" course (but we trained at different times). This particular training was offered as part of the paramilitary course and was designed to prepare CIA overseas operators for the possibility that they might be taken hostage or captured. The course included a field exercise where we were taken hostage and subjected to methods of the euphemistically described "Enhanced Interrogation" procedures. There was no waterboarding but we were forced to stand in place for 48 hours, deprived of sleep, subjected to noise bombardment, shoved into claustrophobically small boxes and deprived of food and drink. None of this was later described as "effective" techniques for getting people to talk. In fact, the instructors generally conceded that such practices were counterproductive.

Israel will now drive the US to war with Iran.

 

"President Trump said Tuesday that the United States will withdraw from the landmark Iran nuclear agreement and re-impose sanctions on Tehran, a decision that angered allies who fear the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the heart of the Middle East.

 Declaring that "the decaying and the rotten structure" of the 2015 agreement does not block Iran from developing nuclear weapons, Trump said during a speech at the White House that "the Iran deal is defective at its core."

The decision drew criticism from Trump predecessor Barack Obama, who argued in a Facebook post that the deal is working and withdrawing from it is a serious mistake.

"The United States could eventually be left with a losing choice between a nuclear-armed Iran or another war in the Middle East," Obama said."  USA Today

---------------

IMO Israel achieved  a major victory today when the mentally limited US president, a man who cannot deal with complex phenomena, was herded by; the Israelis, their  American Zionist allies and the chickenhawks  now surrounding  him across the goal line to withdrawal of the US from JCPOA.

The imperialists (neocon faction) are SURE that Europe and Russia will kneel before the throne of  Trump the First in his City on the Hill. 

The Israelis want the phantom menace of antisemitism crushed.   The turn of Iran, Syria and Lebanon has now come for a "cleansing."  They want the Iranians made into a pastoral people who have no foreign policy at all.

I am told that Israeli electronic counter-measure units started a massive jamming effort against air defense assets in Syria three days ago.  Israeli ground forces on the Golan Front have been placed on high alert.  IMO a false flag attack on Israel is likely.  pl

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/08/trump-set-announce-his-iran-nuclear-deal-decisio

imn-blasts-kerry/589417002/

An Israeli-Iranian escalatory ladder in Syria?

 

"Israel defense officials believe that Iran is determined to retaliate for the April 9 Israeli airstrike on Syria’s T4 Airbase in which at least 7 Iranian service members were killed, the Israel new outlet Haaretz reported on May 6.

According to the report, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are currently planning the retaliation act. Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-backed Shiite forces are supposedly involved in these Iranian preparations.

Israeli officials said that the Iranian retaliation could be in a form of missile strike, launched from Syria, on key bases of the Israel Army in northern Israel. The officials believe that the supposed missile strike will be limited, as Iran is not looking to start a war with Israel, according to Haaretz.

The senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on April 10 that the Israeli airstrike on the T4 Airbase “will not remain without a response.”

Haaretz said that the Israeli Army is taking various protective measures against any possible missile fire. Previously, Israeli sources claimed that the Israeli Air Force is planning to strike all the IRGC assets in Syria in a response to any Iranian attack."  SF

--------------

So what have we here?  On balance it seems to me that the Israelis are preparing the ground politically for further air and missile attacks on facilities in Syria now used by Iran for a variety of purposes, one of which may be the capability to fire ballistic missiles into Israel.  The Israeli obsession with Iran as the present manifestation of anti-Semitic feeling virtually insures that such facilities will be attacked by them.  In a way they are perfect bait.  Natanyahu is off to Moscow to lecture Putin as the archetypal Tough Jew.  We will soon learn how well that works.

But, the probability of more and more Israeli attacks in Syria is high.  When these occur the first steps on an escalatory ladder will be mounted, a ladder that can easily lead to open Israel-Iran warfare and supporting attacks by fire by the Hizballah "artillery" the fires of which would extend across all of northern Israel down as far as Tel Aviv.

In this circumstance who can say what the reactions of the US and Russia would be.  pl 

https://southfront.org/iran-is-planning-to-launch-missiles-at-israel-from-syria-report/

Israel Launches Desperate PsyOps and Trump is Buying by Publius Tacitus

The news is not the news. What you are seeing on the tube on the nets is not necessarily the truth. That's a shocker, huh? Today's propaganda blitz came courtesy of Israel's Bibi Netanyahu. In a carefully staged managed presentation, Bibi one upped Colin Powell's lamentable lie fest before the UN Security Council in January 2003. While Powell's mission back then was to get the world in line for an unprovoked, illegal attack on Iraq using the false guise of weapon's of mass destruction, Bibi's task was less audacious and far more manageable--Give Donald Trump ammunition for ending the multilateral agreement with Iran. In other words, put the Iran agreement in the shitter.

Trump has been looking for an excuse to ditch the accord, which was negotiated under the watch of his predecessor. He was blocked during the first year of his Presidency by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Advisor McMaster. They are gone now. Replaced by the more strident and hawkish Mike Pompeo and John Bolton.

Here's how the Israel friendly media played Netanyahu's performance:

Neocon Jack Keane wants a permanent US presence in Syria

 

"Keane retired from military service in 2003. He now works as a national security analyst for Fox News. He has served an advisory role in the management of the U.S. occupation of Iraq, as a member of the Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee. In January 2007, Keane and scholar Frederick W. Kagan released a policy paper, entitled "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq",^[7] through the American Enterprise Institute that called for bringing security by putting around 30,000 additional American troops there for a period of at least 18 months. In part convinced by this paper, President George W. Bush ordered on January 10, 2007, the deployment of 21,500 additional troops to Iraq, most of whom would be deployed to Baghdad, this deployment has been nicknamed the 2007 "surge".    wiki on Keane

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I watched this man hold forth this morning on Varney and Company a business and politics show hosted by Stuart Varney a fervently American immigrant from England who apparently never saw a jingo he didn't like.

General Keane is a close associate of the Kagans, Victoria Nuland, Petraeus and the like.  He has consistently pressed in policy circles for aggressive foreign policy ventures including the Iraq "Surge" that helped secure the Baghdad area from Iraqi insurgents.  In fact the security situation markedly improved across Iraq because Petraeus was smart enough to encourage the work that had been done by Green Berets and junior USMC people in encouraging the Sunni Arabs to abandon support of the jihadi guerrillas.

On Varney's show today Keane pushed for a US policy in Syria that would establish a "security zone" in Syria east of the Euphrates and in the Kurdish areas east of Manbij.  He was clear that he believes that this "security zone" should be held indefinitely, in other words, permanently.

He said that such a zone would prevent the western expansion of Iran through northern Iraq and then Syria westward to the Mediterranean thus completing the dreaded Shia Crescent.  The fact that the Iraqi sovereign government might object to such Iranian expansion did not seem to occur to him.  Perhaps he has taken note of the condemnation by that Shia Arab dominated government of the FUKUS missile strikes in Syria.

To help the FUKUS forces hold this enclave indefinitely, he repeated the notion that the Sunni majority countries in the region should contribute armed forces to the Sunni Enclave.  DJT has recently said much the same thing.  This raises the possibility to me that his "thinking" on this matter originates with the arch neocons and their favorite vehicle the Institute for the Study of War, a Kagan operation through and through.  Well, pilgrims, I am here to tell you that the Sunni Arab countries are not going to do that,  Apart from Jordan's small but competent forces, the rest have no armed forces capable of doing anything but oppress civilian populations.  Saudi Arabia's indefensible war against the people of Yemen is a perfect example of the military ineptitude of the Sunni Arab states.  Repeatedly defeated by the Houthis and the rump of the Yemeni Army the Saudi have resorted to employing African and other mercenaries against the Yemenis as well as pursuing a savage campaign of aerial bombing against Yemeni civilians.  Perhaps they were inspired to do this by the courses of study of RSAF officers at the US Air Force "University" at Montgomery, Alabama.  the Strategic Bombing theories of Douhet are still much admired there.

Toward the end of his discourse this morning, Keane, came to the crux of his argument.  He said that a war is coming in which Iran, Hizbullah and the Syrian government will fight Israel and that the US must be in a position in Syria to defend Israel when that happens.  Thus it is revealed that the source of Keane's (and now DJT's) thinking is simply Israel's obsession with the hostility of the Gentile World to include all those Muslims surrounding them.  In other words, Keane's neocon pitch is based on Zionist fear.

Keane several times repeated a line to the effect that no US combat brigades or regiments would be committed to the Sunni Enclave.  To believe this magical thinking is to believe that no real fighting would eventually have to be done.

I have seen a poll today that indicates that 61% of the American people approve of the FUKUS missile strikes against the fictional chemical weapons target set in Syria.  The gullibility involved in that is impressive.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Keane

Madness, it's madness. In March. You know what that means - ....... by Fred

 

Get your brackets ready!

Remember when the real press carried the real important news in March?  

My where have those days gone. It was all so much fun. "Obama played pickup games throughout his marathon campaign...." The ultimate playa. 

But we can restore the spirt of the old days, because we have - a blog!

Votel, Mattis and Dunford must be on the same page.

 

"The top U.S. general in the Middle East testified before Congress this week and dropped several bombshells: from signaled support for the Iran nuclear deal, admitting the U.S. does not know what Saudi Arabia does with its bombs in Yemen and that Assad has won the Syrian Civil War.

U.S. Army General Joseph Votel said the Iran agreement, which President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from, has played an important role in addressing Iran's nuclear program.

"The JCPOA addresses one of the principle threats that we deal with from Iran, so if the JCPOA goes away, then we will have to have another way to deal with their nuclear weapons program," said U.S. Army General Joseph Votel.

JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is the formal name of the accord reached with Iran in July 2015 in Vienna.

Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from the accord between Tehran and six world powers unless Congress and European allies help "fix" it with a follow-up pact. Trump does not like the deal's limited duration, among other things.

Votel is head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia, including Iran. He was speaking to a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the same day that Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after a series of public rifts over policy, including Iran.

Tillerson had joined Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in pressing a skeptical Trump to stick with the agreement with Iran.

"There would be some concern (in the region), I think, about how we intended to address that particular threat if it was not being addressed through the JCPOA. ... Right now, I think it is in our interest" to stay in the deal, Votel said.

When a lawmaker asked whether he agreed with Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford's position on the deal,Votel said: "Yes, I share their position."

Mattis said late last year that the United States should consider staying in the Iran nuclear deal unless it was proven Tehran was not complying or that the agreement was not in the U.S. national interest.

A collapse of the Iran nuclear deal would be a “great loss,” the United Nations atomic watchdog's chief warned Trump recently, giving a wide-ranging defense of the accord.

Iran has stayed within the deal’s restrictions since Trump took office but has fired diplomatic warning shots at Washington in recent weeks. It said on Monday that it could rapidly enrich uranium to a higher degree of purity if the deal collapsed.

Syria

Votel also discussed the situation in Syria at the hearing.

During the Syrian army's offensive in eastern Ghouta, more than 1,100 civilians have died. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, backed by Russia and Iran, say they are targeting "terrorist" groups shelling the capital.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned on Monday that Washington "remains prepared to act if we must," if the U.N. Security Council failed to act on Syria.

Votel said the best way to deter Russia, which backs Assad, was through political and diplomatic channels.

"Certainly if there are other things that are considered, you know, we will do what we are told. ... (But) I don't recommend that at this particular point," Votel said, in an apparent to reference to military options.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham asked whether it was too strong to say that with Russia and Iran's help, Assad had "won" the civil war in Syria.

"I do not think that is too strong of a statement," Votel said.

Graham also asked if the United States' policy on Syria was still to seek the removal of Assad from power.

"I don't know that that's our particular policy at this particular point. Our focus remains on the defeat of ISIS," Votel said, using an acronym for Islamic State. "  Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-18/us-centcom-chief-comes-clean-generals-three-stunning-admissions-mid-east

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Votel would never say anything like this if he were not in agreement with Mattis and Dunford.  This is illustrative of a weakening of Israeli/AIPAC/Saudi  influence in US Middle East policy.  It will be interesting to see if Votel is rebuked for these statements.  pl

 

SYRIA LEAKS: SUITES, PROPAGANDA AND DIVIDENDS (presented by Publius Tacitus)

Let's be clear. I did not write the following article. I came across this article (in French) that, in my opinion, is a must read. It is published at http://prochetmoyen-orient.ch/syrieleaks-suites-propagande-et-dividendes/ by Richard Labévière.

It is a good reminder of how much propaganda is being pushed in the west to portray the Syrians and Russians and Iranians as evil beasts while touting America as a band of angels. The author of the following piece reminds us that after World War II the United States knowingly and happily recruited and relied on Nazis who played a direct role in the murder of thousands of Jews. One of those was Klaus Barbie, the butcher of Lyon. Anyway, please enjoy the following.

Beirut, February 26, 2017.

At the request of several readers and listeners, we return to our "exclusive information" of last week (19 February 2018), published by prochetmoyen-orient.ch (number 166): "Syrieleaks: a British diplomatic cable unveils Western strategy ".

It is the legendary Pierre Lazareff who said that "for a journalist, to release an exclusivity is always a test, if not a pain". And the boss of France-Soir did not yet know the digital networks (misnamed "social networks"), Fake News and future laws on Fake News ...

 

Syria Notes - 8 february 2018

 

On February 7, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), backed up by the Russian Aerospace Forces, repelled a Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) attack on its positions in the southeastern Idlib countryside, according to Syrian pro-government sources. The SAA reportedly killed and injured several fighters of HTS and its allies during the clashes.

Additionally, Russian warplanes destroyed several headquarters and ammo depots of the so-called Free Idlib Army in the city of Maarrat al-Nu’man in the southern Idlib countryside, according to Syrian activists.

Syrian opposition sources revealed that thirteen Free Idlib Army fighters, including their general commander “Mohammad Abu Najib”, were killed in the Russian airstrikes on Maarrat al-Nu’man. Russian warplanes also destroyed more than four vehicles armed with anti-aircraft guns belonging to the group.  SF

----------------

 The SAA is rapidly eliminating jihadist forces in the East Hama pocket.  Bereft of a source of re-supply through encirclement the jihadis are being rapidly overrun and destroyed.  By the time of this writing that pocket may be altogether eliminated.  This will free up the forces involved to return to the attritional grinding process underway NW of Abu Duhur around the town of Tel Sultan.   The SAA made a decision to eliminate the East Hama pocket before continuing to the west into Idlib Province.  At their positions around Tel Sultan they had clearly gone past the culminating point of their drive to Abu Duhur and although they could have continued immediately, the risk of a sudden reversal brought on by exactly the kind of jihadi counter-attack now underway would have been great.   Wisely they decided to improve the odds in their favor and have reduced the East Hama pocket to their operational rear and are bringing up more logistical support before continuing into Idlib.  The wealth of air support available to them has been a great help in this.  When they re-commence forward movement I hope they share my view that a right hook to Al-Eis to roll up the jihadi flank south of the Aleppo City is the best course of action. pl

 https://southfront.org/syrian-army-repels-hts-attack-in-southeastern-idlib-russian-warplanes-wipe-out-fsa-ammo-depots-video/

*********

"A local militia was conducting reconnaissance actions in the area to detect and eliminate the ISIS cell when it was surprisingly shelled by mortars, rocket launched and then the US-led coalition’s attack helicopters. 25 militiamen were injured as a result of the attack."  SF

------------

It appears to me thus far that the "troops" attacked were NDF militia from the area.  They are likely to be Arab tribesmen, heavily trained and advised by IRGC Quds force people and supported by SAA artillery and and armor.  These Arab tribesman are undoubtedly very hostile to the presence of the Kurdish SDF this far south of traditional Kurdish haunts.   The US is pursuing an enduring role in Syria and had previously warned the Russians and through them the SAG that intrusions east of the Euphrates in Deir al-Zor Province would be met by force.  This does not bode well for future US/SAG relations.  US and Iranian hegemonic ambitions are nose to nose in Eastern Syria.  pl  

https://southfront.org/russian-military-us-led-coalition-struck-syrian-troops-conducting-operation-against-isis-cells-in-deir-ezzor-province/

*********

 "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has rejected the recent statement by the head of Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, regarding a potential meeting between Ankara and Damascus.

“What would we talk about with a murderer who has killed a million of his citizens,” Erdogan said in his address to mukhtars— heads of Turkish villages and neighbourhoods—at the presidential complex in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, as quoted by TRT World."  AMN

-----------

The sultan is pretending to be motivated by concern for the Syrian peoples.  Nonsense.  He sees the opportunity to weaken Syria in pursuit of some future de facto annexations in northern Syria.    Unfortunately for him the TSK is not doing well in establishing "facts on the ground" to support such ambitions.  At the same time, the Turks are positioning small bodies of troops at Al-Eis, Idlib City and Saraqib supposedly to implement the Russian/Iranian/Turkish de-escalation agreement on Idlib Province but IMO their real purpose is to obstruct SAG recovery of the province.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/erdogan-refuses-talks-assad-calls-murderer-million-citizens/

A Modest Proposal to dismember Syria ...

 

" ... the five countries called for a UN-supervised election for the -Syrians inside and outside the country and for radical changes in the Syrian constitution including stripping the Syrian presidency from most, if not all, of its powers.

The five countries also suggested stripping the Syrian government from many of its powers and creating two parliaments that will have limited powers. This will leave most of the state’s establishments under the control of the local authorities in a decentralized political system.

Syrian pro-government activists described the proposed constitution as an attempt to legalize the stateless situation in some parts of Syria in order to end the Syrian state once and for all.

Bashar Jaafari, the Permanent Representative of Syria to the United Nations, rejected the Arab-Western plan and stressed that its content contradicts with the international resolutions, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)."  SF

-------------

The French and British created the state of Syria in pursuit of their imperial interests and now, in association with the US and Saudi Arabia, they seek to destroy it.  Jordan?  This is laughable.  Jordan is yet another artifact of the post WW1 re-structuring of the ecumenical empire that the Sublime Porte had more or less governed for hundreds of years in the name of Islam.  For the Jordanians to sign on to the destruction of Syria is worse than a crime.  It is stupid.  Have the Jordanians no sense at all of what may be their fate when greater powers find them inconvenient.

Saudi Arabia?  Their obvious desire to subjugate the interests of the many religious and ethnic groups of Syria is clear.  They have sought Wahhabi Sunni triumphalism and rule in the Levant for many years.  Their participation in this foolish proposal is yet more of the same.

Unless the Turks conquer a great deal of northern Syria and thereby make moot any such agreement, it is likely that in the end there will be some measure of autonomy granted to the Syrian Kurds by the SAG, but not more than that.  Loosely confederated states are not favored in the Islamic World.  They are thought to be inherently weak instruments of foreign meddling.  pl 

 

https://southfront.org/us-uk-france-saudi-arabia-and-jordan-propose-own-political-plan-to-solve-syrian-crisis/

Drifting sands: America's strategy in Syria

By Patrick BAHZAD

As the war in Syria is entering a new phase, the US will have to deal with issues that will prove very difficult to incorporate into a single comprehensive strategy.    

There was an eerie sense of déjà vu about yesterday's statement by Secretary of State Tillerson. The kind of same old, same old speech about issues, challenges and threats, not necessarily related, and grand objectives of US foreign policy. But the most basic question as to what the United States wants to do with Syria, and what it wants for the Middle-East in general, remained unanswered. Obviously, it doesn't take a genius to figure out this administration is on course for containment and roll back of Iranian influence in the region. But wishful thinking and circumstantial alliances with unreliable partners don't make a strategy, they just make up a recipe for yet another disaster.

War in Syria has entered a new, decisive phase, that much is clear. The so-called "Islamic State" has been defeated as a political entity, in Syria as well as in Iraq. And, as could also be expected, it has already started to morph back into an insurgency, alas of global proportions this time, and will soon re-emerge not just in the Middle-East, but in areas where we didn't encounter its black banner before. The ambush that targeted American Special Forces in Mali, in late 2017, bears testimony to this trend.

Jihad Incorporated is expanding, despite the massive blow it was dealt in Mosul and Raqqa. The costs of the military operations against IS are high though, and there will be a price to pay for the way local forces conducted operations. Huge refugee camps have been established. Cities were levelled to the ground. Reconstruction is in tatters. This is a fertile breeding ground for any insurgency and the Jihadi shape shifters will try and take advantage of those circumstances.

A coupla things ...

1.  A couple of Border Patrol/ICE people tell me that the US does not effectively charge an entry fee to non-US citizen individuals seeking to enter the US legally across the southern border.  The point made by these border and immigration professionals is that the money would enable the construction and installation of more and better border barrier systems.  They make the point that where border barrier systems have been installed the flow of illegal migrants is much reduced.  Mexico evidently collects such a fee in the San Diego sector.  My question for the lawyers is whether or not such a fee would be legal if put in place under an EO or would this require legislation?

2.  We now have had Obama Derangement Syndrome (ODS),  Clinton Derangement Syndrome (CDS),  Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS),  and United States Derangement Syndrome (USDS).  I propose yet another Derangement Syndrome.  This would be the Russia/Iran Derangement Syndrome (RIDS).  In this syndrome now prominent on both sides of the political divide, the Russia of Pushkin, Turgenev, Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, etc. disappears to be replaced altogether by Ivan the Terrible, Lenin, Stalin and the Soviet Union writ large to condemn Russia in our minds to the status of crafty inherently hostile barbarians.   Well, pilgrims, maybe it ain't so!  Ukraine?  Are we really solidly behind a coup generated government of Nazi sympathizers in Kiev?  Are we really?  Is there really evidence that Russian Army troops are fighting in eastern Ukraine?  Is there? Or is this claim just another example of Borgist (foreign policy establishment) information operations?  Do we still remember that the Crimea was for centuries an integral part of Russia, not the Ukraine, until Khruschev, a Ukrainian, arbitrarily gave Crimea to the Ukraine.  The Russians took it back?  What a surprise.  What a surprise!  That doesn't fit with the "rules based world order?"  Well, maybe there is something wrong with the rules that the Borg loves so much.  Russia intervened in Syria to prevent a  jihadi/Gulfy/Israeli/US handover of the country to the grip of a salafi satrapi of Saudi Arabia?  Well, God bless them!

3. The Borg evidently thinks it bestrides the world as the standard bearer of the aforementioned "rules," commanding from the imperial capital on the Tiber/Potomac.  A reminder of this "thought," is the statement today in the corporate media that the US "ordered" Soleimani, the IRGC Quds force commander (foreign interventions) not to leave Iran and he has had the effrontery to visit Moscow.  Tell me pilgrims, what is the sense of such a statement.  How is Soleimani a terrorist?  He carries out his country's foreign policy as do our people for US policy.  His men worked with Iraqi insurgents to fight us during our adventure in country building?  Mathis, McMaster and all that crew are so deeply embittered by war that they cannot see the foolishness of that?  They should grow up.  "We fought them and they fought us."  Germany, Japan, Spain, etc.?  Come on!  Grow up!

4.  Pelosi appears to me to be demented.

5.  "Shithole?"  Well, SWMBO and I have lived and visited in many a "shithole."  Haiti, Salvador, Yemen, and any number of African dumps closely resemble that description.  Rude?  Yes, certainly, but he is the "hard hat" president.  IMO most Americans agree with him on this. 

6.  A lot of the newer, younger people on Foxnews' air appear to be making their reportage into the new CNN.  pl

The Next Step on Iran: Will Trump Pull out of JCPOA?

 by Decameron

On January 13, President Trump has to act on the nuclear deal with Iran:  he can waive the sanctions for 90 days; he can repeat his action of October 13, 2017 and refuse to certify that Iran is in compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA—aka the P5+1 agreement); he can pull the United States out of the agreement.   Intelligence analysts at a high level have said that the recent protests in Iran haven’t determined the President’s thinking about what he will do.  Trump has made no secret of his opinion about the agreement—he hates it. He’s called it the worst deal ever negotiated, but can he afford to pull the US out of it? Abrogating the Iran nuclear agreement at this moment would not increase the chances of pursuing a non-military solution to the North Korean nuclear threat, and his most qualified advisers appear to lean in that direction.  And regardless of what Trump decides on Iran, the other P5+1 signatories-- Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany—will stick to JCPOA.  The European countries long ago exempted themselves from secondary sanctions, and Russia and China won’t be affected by Trump’s sanctions except to become even closer partners in what they perceive as an alliance against “hegemonism.”

The now-waning Iran protests have put the “amen chorus” of Iran-bashers into full swing.  Trump’s sometimes phone pal John Bolton screams about regime change “now”.  The neo-conservative Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) crows that the theocratic state is crackng up in Iran because some protesters chanted “Death to Khamenei” and “Death to Rouhani”.  (FDD houses some of the same players who told us that the Iraqi people would greet the invading American army with “flowers and sweets” and that the Shi’ia would be America’s salvation in Iraq.) 

It’s much more complicated as readers and commenters here know, and too soon to say whether a “Persian Spring” triggered by internal factors or outside “color revolution” will come to pass.  For some of the most insightful and informative comments on the situation, I highly recommend SST’s own January 2^nd Open Thread on Iran.

Iran Protests: A Few Of the Internal and External Factors

by Willy B

The good colonel asked me a couple of days ago to post something on Iran. My apologies for taking so long.

According to a number of reports I’ve seen this morning, the protests in Iran have been fading down. Now may be a good time to consider both the internal and external factors involved with them (though this analysis will hardly be comprehensive).

A number of sane observers, in response to Trump's tweets in support of the protestors, suggested that he and the regime changers should be careful what they wish for. The Guardian's Simon Tisdall warned any real or imagined weakening of the Iranian government’s grip could presage a dangerous escalation of regional tensions. Trita Parsi, of the National Iranian American Council, reported in an op-ed published by CNN that the demonstrations, through "quite ferocious... have rarely numbered more than a few thousand in any specific locality."

From everything that I've read, there seem to be two internal factors involved in the demonstrations. One is the real economic issues that reportedly aided the spread of the protests. Secondly, is the hardline factor. By all accounts, the protests began in Mashad, Iran's second largest city and the home base of Ebrahim Raisi, Rouhani's conservative rival for the presidency. According to Parsi, Raisi sought to take advantage of the population's legitimate economic grievances to score points against the Hassan Rouhani government, which they consider too moderate, but then they lost control of them because the economic message has resonated with a broader segment of the population than they expected. "Pro-Rouhanists … believe hard-liner opposition and state security establishment provoked or even helped organize the Mashhad demos and … hadn't factored in the possibility that the demos would get overtaken by their own opponents calling for their own end," reported Golnar Motevalli, an Iran-based correspondent for Bloomberg, reports Al Monitor's Laura Rozen.

Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, acknowledged the economic grievances of the population but indirectly criticized  Rouhani during a press conference, yesterday. “Some feel that a friendship with America will improve the economic situation, but these people should look at a country such as Egypt, which has sacrificed everything for friendship with America,” Jafari said. The tensions between Rouhani and the IRGC are not new, however. Another al Monitor article  reports on the media war between Rouhani and the IRGC, with the IRGC, in recent days setting up new media channels to steer criticism of the government towards Rouhani and away from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This is in direct response to Rouhani’s effort, as reflected in his budget submission in early December, to reduce the amount of state support to cultural organizations that have been instrumental in criticizing the Green Movement as a foreign plot and in attacking Rouhani himself. “We couldn’t allow him to cut off our lifeline,” a producer at the regime production studios said  after Rouhani revealed his new budget. “He and his supporters want to silence us by taking away our funding. But we will not be silenced. We will show him that people don’t agree with him.” the protests that began in Mashad on Dec. 28, therefore, were a direct response from the hardliners to Rouhani's budget and his attack on the hardliners.

Iran Open Thread

What to say?  I asked Babak to send us something on this but thus far not a word.  We will have an open thread on this crisis as well as a number of topical posts.

This situation in the streets looks to me to be a bigger revolt than that 0f 2009.

The key question in this uprising is the extent to which the IRGC and the police remain loyal to the Supreme Guide and willing to suppress the masses by all means necessary.

As has been said a lot now the US should be careful not to make empty implied promises of support to the resistors as we did in Hungary in 1956 and in Iraq in 1991.  Approving messaging in the media is one thing but any fanciful ideas that involve supply of weaponry or organizer/advisers should not be given a moments thought

This is an Iranian moment, a moment in which the Iranian people and their sons in the military and police should show what they are made of.  pl

At least Nauru is still with us ...

 

"  nine states – including the United States and Israel –voted against the resolution. The other countries which supported Washington were Togo, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Marshall Islands, Guatemala and Honduras."  Guardian

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(irony alert) So, Perfidious Albion has bitten the hand that fed them.  That's right isn't it?  No?  What about all that Spam we sent them when they ran out of crumpets?  What about that?  Why would Palau have voted on our side?  Ah, there must be some pot of Golden Grickels from which they sup, maybe something about a Jack London memorial pearl fishery or, something. (end of irony)

 

Nikki Haley, is a city girl flower of South Carolina politics.  Do you suppose that she may be learning that THE WORLD is harder to bully than a bunch of "good ole boys" who like to put Rebel flag decals on their pick-up trucks?

And then, there are the related spectacles of the Israeli UN ambassador sneering just now on the TeeVee at THE WORLD whilst Iraq, Afghanistan, Jordan, Turkey and Egypt voted for the resolution.  I guess that means that they don't need the money badly enough to roll over when ordered. 

There will be no peace for Israel.  pl 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/21/united-nations-un-vote-donald-trump-jerusalem-israel

Iran to Syria route is open now.

 

"The first Iranian military convoy crossed into Syria coming from Iraq through the Tell al-Badi crossing during this week, the UK-based news outlet the New Arab reported on December 16.

A senior Iraqi official told the New Arab that the Iranian military convoy consisted of 20 covered trucks carrying an unknown load. The official added that the convoy was escorted by fighters and commanders of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iraqi Hezbollah and Hezbollah al-Nujaba.

“A convoy of 20 mud-covered, unmarked vehicles crossed into Syria after being let through checkpoints manned by the PMU … The cars were transporting Iranian and Iraqi forces to fight alongside the Assad regime. I believe this could signal the activation of the long-planned Tehran-Damascus road,” the Iraqi official told the New Arab.

If these claims are true, this can be considered as a huge achievement for Iran and its allies, mainly Lebanese Hezbollah. For the last four years, Iran was shipping weapons and ammunition to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Hezbollah through an air route. This method allowed Israel to identify, track and target Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah easily, as only few cargo airplanes land in Syrian airports every day.

However, now Israel will be incapable of identifying any Iranian shipment on the new ground route, as it will be used by thousands of Iraq and Syrian companies on daily basis in the upcoming months. Experts believe that this will give Hezbollah and the SAA a huge advantage over Israel and will allow Iran to increase its supplies to its allies."  SF

---------------

Israeli air attacks against vehicles moving from Iran to Syria along this route, but it is a mighty victory for Iranian strategy in the region.  An alternative route for commercial traffic will be through the Jordanian panhandle and across the  border in the Daraa area.  pl

https://southfront.org/first-iranian-military-convoy-enters-syria-through-land-route-from-iraq-reports/

Waiting for the punch in the mouth - TTG

Back in 1987 a reporter interviewed Mike Tyson about his upcoming fight with Evander Holyfield. The reporter asked Mike if he was worried about Evander and his fight plan. Mike famously replied,”Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” That thought came to mind when I read the latest plan articulated by a Pentagon spokesman for our military forces in eastern Syria.

***********************

“WASHINGTON—The Pentagon plans to keep some U.S. forces in Syria indefinitely, even after a war against the Islamic State extremist group formally ends, to take part in what it describes as ongoing counterterrorism operations, officials said. There are approximately 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria, along with an unspecified number of contractors supporting them. Last month, the U.S. military withdrew 400 Marines from Syria, which U.S. forces first entered in the fall of 2016.

Officials earlier this week disclosed the plans for an open-ended commitment, known as a “conditions-based” presence. That is the same approach the Trump administration is taking in Afghanistan. “The United States will sustain a conditions-based military presence in Syria to combat the threat of terrorist-led uncertainty, prevent the resurgence of ISIS, and to stabilize liberated areas,” Army Col. Rob Manning, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters Wednesday.

U.S. defense officials stressed there would be no large, permanent bases in Syria of the kind the U.S. maintains in places like Germany and South Korea. Instead, troops will be assigned to smaller bases and outposts. In some instances, troops will deploy temporarily from other bases in the region for specific missions, one of the defense officials said. It isn’t clear how many forces would stay in the country.

The Pentagon has said the forces will target parts of Syria that aren’t fully governed by either regime or rebel forces. The military says it has the legal authority to remain there. “Operating under recognized international authorities, the U.S. military will continue to support local partner forces in Syria to stabilize liberated territory,” Col. Manning said.”  (WSJ)

***********************

This “conditions based” presence sounds like a new way of saying we plan on staying in Syria indefinitely just like we plan on staying in Afghanistan and Iraq indefinitely… or at least until we get punched in the mouth. Not much of a plan as far as I'm concerned.

Not long ago CIA Director Pompeo sent a secret letter to the IRGC’s General Soleimani reportedly to warn him not to attack US or Coalition forces in Syria or Iraq. Soleimani did not open the letter. It’s existence was reported by Press TV. Soleimani later sent his own not so secret message to the CJTF-OIR Commander.

***********************

“Brigadier General Haj Qassem Soleimani sent a verbal letter, via Russia, to the head of the US forces commander in Syria, advising him to pull out all US forces to the last soldier “or the doors of hell will open up”.

“My message to the US military command: when the battle against ISIS (the Islamic State group) will end, no American soldier will be tolerated in Syria. I advise you to leave by your own will or you will be forced to it”, said Soleimani to a Russian officer. Soleimani asked the Russian responsible to expose the Iranian intentions towards the US: that they will be considered as forces of occupation if these decide to stay in north-east Syria where Kurds and Arab tribes cohabit together.”  (Elijah J. Magnier)

***********************

To add to the CJTF-OIR Commander’s concerns, the leader of an Iraqi PMU militia, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, declared that “Trump’s stupid decision” to hand Jerusalem to the Israelis is “a legitimate reason to target American forces.”  In Aleppo the Liwa al-Quds Brigade rallied in protest to Trump’s decision on Jerusalem. As the full reaction to Trump’s decision develops, our forces will end up surrounded by hostiles with no friends in sight. As Magnier surmises, Trump may be setting our troops up for a repeat of the events of 1983 Beirut. Now that would be a punch in the mouth.

TTG

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-remain-in-syria-indefinitely-pentagon-officials-say-1512752450

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/12/09/qassem-soleimanis-letter-to-the-us-leave-syria-or-else-could-al-hasaka-2018-become-beirut-1983/

" Trump’s Saudi Scheme Unravels" - Alastair Crooke

 

"And, maybe MbS and Kushner thought Netanyahu spoke for Israel when he promised to be a partner in the front against Hezbollah and Iran? Was it the “grand plan” that was affirmed between Netanyahu and Trump on the day before the latter launched his United Nations broadside at Iran in September? When in fact, while any Israeli Prime Minister can wage war against the Palestinians with a relatively free hand, the same is not true where the state of Israel itself is being put at stake. No Israeli P.M. can commit to a possibly existential conflict (for Israel), without having broad support from the Israeli political and security establishment. And the Israel Establishment will only contemplate war when it is plainly in the Israeli interest, and not merely to please MbS or Mr Trump.

Ben Caspit (and other Israeli commentators) confirm that the Israeli establishment does not see war with Hezbollah, and the risk of a wider conflict, to be in the Israeli interest.

The fallout from this episode is highly significant. It has exposed that Israel presently is deterred from contemplating a war in the region (as Caspit explains). It too has underlined the hollowness of MbS ambitions to mount a “Sunni Alliance” against Iran; and it has undercut President Trump’s containment policy for Iran. For now, at least, we may expect Iran and Russia to consolidate the state in Syria, and to stabilize the northern tier. Caspit’s “war of Armageddon” may yet arrive – but not for now, perhaps."  Crooke

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An eloquent contemplation of the interaction of career Borgists (foreign policy establishment) in Washington with the crowd of enthusiastic amateurs who are DJT's true inner circle.  Kushner, Bibi and MbS thought up this idea of a "Sunni Alliance,' sold it to DJT and then went forth to re-shape the world.  My God! What an absurdity!

If Crooke is right about this cabal of dunces, the notion circulating that people like Mattis, McMaster, Tillerson, Pence are effective minders for Trump preventing the worst of his potential rogue elephant behavior is just completely wrong.  If Crooke is right, then Trump ran this little "caper" all by hisself with the help of "the fam" as Bill Murray once called it.

I would agree with Crooke that the Sunni Alliance as he formulates it was always silly.

1.  Saudi Arabia is worthless as military muscle. Yemen! Yemen! Yemen!  Had anyone in the cabal noticed that the Saudis have fallen on their asses in Yemen?  To launch Saudi and other Gulfie legions at Iran would be precisely like throwing eggs at a brick wall. 

2.  As Crooke writes, Israel really IS deterred by Hizbullah's potentially murderous rocket and missile fire from hardened positions in Lebanon.  the Israelis are far too smart not to know that.  Their ambition in this cabal was likely to find others to do their fighting for them while they made threatening noises.   pl  

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/11/17/trumps-saudi-scheme-unravels/

Confirmation - straight from the Red Heifer's mouth

 

"The classified embassy cable, written in Hebrew, constitutes the first formal evidence proving that the Saudis and Israelis are deliberately coordinating to escalate the situation in the Middle East.

The explosive classified Israeli cable reveals the following:

• On Sunday, just after Lebanese PM Hariri’s shocking resignation, Israel sent a cable to all of its embassies with the request that its diplomats do everything possible to ramp up diplomatic pressure against Hezbollah and Iran.
• The cable urged support for Saudi Arabia’s war against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
• The cable stressed that Iran was engaged in “regional subversion”. 
• Israeli diplomats were urged to appeal to the “highest officials” within their host countries to attempt to expel Hezbollah from Lebanese government and politics. ""  SF and Zero Hedge

------------

 Well, pilgrims, we knew all this, didn't we?  Yes we did!  Cast your eye over the import of my post of a couple of days ago.

But!  This is confirmation from the very corral of the Red Heifer itself.  When the Hebrews lie down with the Saracens, can the end be far away?

For the humorless, I will explain that this citation of Jewish myth is a joke.  pl 

https://southfront.org/explosive-leaked-secret-israeli-cable-confirms-israeli-saudi-coordination-provoke-war/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-07/leaked-secret-israeli-cable-confirms-israeli-saudi-coordination-lebanon

https://bible-prophecy.com/redheifer.htm

Israel is trying to blow up the ME again.

(Burkan2)

IMO Bibi is trying to steer the world of the goyim . Iran and Hizbullah are his betes noires.   In Jared Kushner he has IMO a nearly perfect liaison to send back and forth between Washington and Riyadh to whisper in the ears of the high and mighty and to "inform" his father in law, an ignoramus in geopolitics, as to Bibi's "truth."

In Bibi World an optimum outcome would be for the US and Israel to destroy Hizbullah's strategic rocket and missile forces using US strategic air and cruise missile assets and then move on to wrecking Iran.

Let us be clear, Saudi Arabia would contribute nothing to such wars.  Their armed forces are some of the world's largest static displays of export model military equipment.  As my Canadian grandfather used to say of the truly useless, "they aren't worth a piss hole in the snow."

Adel Jubeir (aka the Chihuaha) is the foreign minister of SA.  He is a commoner kept around as a convenience because he speaks native US English.  He acquired that from attendance at US community schools in the various capitals in which his diplomat father served.  Jubair now claims that the missile fired at Riyadh was "smuggled" into Yemen from Iran and fired by Lebanese Hizbullah.  Well, guess what?  These are Bibi's two great bugaboos.  Where do you think the Chihuahua got this "data?"  Saudi Arabian  intelligence is a joke.  They can't find their asses with both hands.  IMO Jubair got that from Kushner who got it from the Israelis.  I would bet my own money that Kushner's phone and E-mail traffic would be very interesting to read.

The missile battalion of the pro-Salih faction of the Yemeni Army who fired this missile have a long experience of ballistic missiles.  They had SCUD when I was Defense Attache there thirty years ago. They have been firing ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia throughout the present war.

All in all, a bibi scam that is working well.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano_H-2

Consolidation of power in Riyadh

 

(This is Muhammad bin Salman the crown prince of SA)

"Prince Miteb, the preferred son of the late King Abdullah, was once thought to be a leading contender for the throne before the unexpected rise of Prince Mohammed two years ago.

He had inherited control of the National Guard, an elite internal security force built out of traditional tribal units, from his father, who ran it for five decades.

Prince Miteb was the last remaining member of Abdullah’s branch of the family to hold a position in the upper echelons of the Saudi power structure.

The move consolidates Crown Prince Mohammed’s control of the kingdom’s security institutions, which had long been headed by separate powerful branches of the ruling family.

Prince Mohammed, the king’s 32-year-old son, already serves as defense minister and was named heir to the throne in a June reshuffle that sidelined his older cousin, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef who had also served as interior minister."  Reuters

---------------

 IMO what we are seeing here is the consolidation of power within the Salman branch of the Sudairi side of the Saudi royal family.

These people are descendants of abd al-aziz al-saud, the creator of Saudi Arabia as a family owned "executive monarchy."  They are all rivals (or potential political allies) in a giant family cousinage of grandchildren, great-grandchildren, etc. of the Wahhabi ruler of Najd who emerged from the desert to seize control of most parts of the Arabian Peninsula.  There are thousands of people in the Family.

There are other important figures in the nomenklatura of Saudi Arabia but at root if you are not "family," you are not.

The present king, Salman has appointed his 32 year old son to be his successor as king.  This man, Muhammad bin Salman (pictured above) has a vision of of Saudi Arabia as being the hegemon of the ME with influence that reaches beyond its money and political skullduggery.  He sees SA as ally and mentor of both Israel and the US and Iran as principal obstacle to achievement of his dream.  Saad Hariri's flight into the crown prince's embrace is well timed to help weld together the anti-Shia coalition.  Velayati's visit to Beirut was a great excuse for his move.

IMO this purge is intended to achieve the intimidation or removal of those who are the crown princes' rivals on the secular side of Saudi society.   Mit'ab bin Abdullah was the head of SANG, a non MODA armed force for decades.  Bin Talal is a major financial power in the world. 

If there is not a successful coup against the crown prince in the next days, his follow up move will probably be to purge the Shia clergy of the Eastern Province.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-cabinet/saudi-king-sacks-top-ministers-gives-more-power-to-crown-prince-idUSKBN1D40U2

Hariri resignation - Israeli attack comes next?

 

"Hariri’s coalition, which took office last year, grouped nearly all of Lebanon’s main parties, including Hezbollah. It took office in a political deal that made Michel Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, president, and was seen as a victory for Iran.

The resignation risks exacerbating sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shi‘ite Muslims and returning Lebanon to paralysis in government.

It was not immediately clear who might succeed Hariri, Lebanon’s most influential Sunni politician.

The prime minister must be a Sunni in Lebanon’s sectarian system. Aoun must appoint the candidate with most support among MPs, who he is expected to consult in the coming days.

“We are living in a climate similar to the atmosphere that prevailed before the assassination of martyr Rafik al-Hariri. I have sensed what is being plotted covertly to target my life,” Hariri said."  Reuters

-----------

The US, Saudi Arabia and Israel have adamantly opposed the existence of the coalition presently headed by Aoun and Nasrullah.  IMO Hariri's resignation indicates a possible decision to use Israeli military force if necessary to destroy the existing coalition in Lebanon. 

Hariri fled to Saudi Arabia and communicated his resignation to President Aoun from there claiming that the Iranians and Hizbullah have been plotting to assassinate him as the constitutionally appointed Sunni Prime Minister. 

This would serve as a convenient casus belli for an Israeli attack on Hizbullah carried out in frustration over US failure at al-bukamel.

Odds of an Israeli attack?  IMO - 50%.  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-politics-hariri/lebanese-pm-hariri-resigns-attacking-iran-hezbollah-idUSKBN1D40DY?il=0

More on the US policy miasma in the ME

 

"On October 22, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at a joint news conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, that it is time for “Iranian militias” that’s fighting ISIS in Iraq to “go home” according to Reuters Agency.

“Iranian militias that are in Iraq, now that the fight against Daesh and ISIS is coming to a close, those militias need to go home. The foreign fighters in Iraq need to go home and allow the Iraqi people to regain control,” Tillerson said.

According to Reuters an US official explained that Tillerson was referring to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and the Iranian Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

However, the PMU consists of Iraqi forces with some Iranian support and assiastance. Considering this, Tillerson statement is either based on very poor understanding of the situation in Iraq, or it might be meant as propaganda, and nothing more."   SF

https://southfront.org/us-state-secretary-iranian-militias-must-leave-iraq/

----------

The PMU are overwhelmingly IRAQI Shia Arabs.  They ARE home.  Tillerson looks foolish sitting next to Adel Jubair (aka The Chihuahua) broadcasting to the world the policy desiderata of the Saudi kingdom.   We all know that DJT made his obeisance to the throne of the Wahhabi state.  Tillerson is obviously there as the deputy mukhtar of America.  Does the Shia run government of Iraq welcome such a statement?  I doubt it.  pl

******

"US.-backed fighters captured Syria's largest oil field from the Islamic State group Sunday, marking a major advance against the extremists in an area coveted by pro-government forces.

With IS in retreat, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government have been in a race to secure parts of the oil-rich Deir el-Zour province along the border with Iraq."  Chicago Tribune

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-syria-oil-field-islamic-state-20171022-story.html

-----------

 Well, pilgrims, IMO the US/SDF has done this to cripple Syrian reconstruction.  The income from this field will be needed for the re-building of places like Raqqa and Aleppo.  What do the neocons and their general officer allies think they are going to do with their possession of this Syrian national property?   Are they going to try to negotiate Kurdish autonomy amounting to independence?  pl

*****

"Turkish troops first deployed in Idlib last Thursday with the purported aim of enforcing the so-called de-escalation zone that Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to in the Kazakh capital of Astana last month. In a statement last week, Turkey’s prime minister said that the operation also aimed to reduce refugee flows into Turkey, prevent conflicts between civilians and militants in Idlib, and establish control points for future deployment in the area.

A wide-scale military campaign against HTS, however, was not listed among the objectives, and Turkey has not demonstrated any hostility toward the group. The two are believed to have coordinated operations in Idlib and HTS has escorted Turkish troops into the province at least four times in the past month." newsdeeply.com

https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/articles/2017/10/23/hostility-toward-militants-grows-in-idlib-as-turkey-deploys-troops

-----------

IMO the new Sublime Porte speaks with Forked Tongue.  How's that for a mixed metaphor?  Sultan Tayyip and his band of neo-Ottomans harbor irredentist dreams with regard to the more or less united lands of the empire as it once was.  .  The Russians have fed them a slice of Syria both in Idlib Province and northeast of  Aleppo City.  It is reported that the Turkish military is occupying eight garrison positions in Idlib including two air bases.  Good luck on getting them to withdraw to Turkey once they are well installed.  pl

 

US policy in Islamdom is a chaos. Part 1

The accompanying map does not include India as a  country deeply affected by Islam and Islamicate civilization.  IMO that is a defect.  The terms "Islam," Islamdom," and "Islamicate Civilization." were clarified by the great historian of Islam, Marshell Hodgson.

This is my editorial opinion.

 ------------

 Syria.  The US persists in its nonsensical policy of regime change in Syria.  McGurk, the State Department lead in Syrian affairs is evidently one of the leaders of this foolishness.  The Syrian Government's forces have regained control of most of the country with the help of their Russian, Iranian, Hizbullah, Palestinian and Christian militia allies.   In spite of this the US MSM studiously ignores the efforts of the SAA and allies (R+6).  They are simply never mentioned.  They have been edited out of the US narrative.  Whether DJT has a side agreement with Putin over Syria seems not to affect the MSM narrative at all.  McGurk's statement that the Syrian government would not be allowed into Raqqa City is an announcement of an extra-legal interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign UN member state.  Do we intend to hold Raqqa forever and to what purpose?

Iraq.  In Iraq we have for the moment abandoned the interests of the KRG in its evident desire for independence from Baghdad.  We have done this in spite of outrage expressed by our foreign policy mentors in Israel.  The Israelis are, of course, the chief sponsors of Kurdish statehood.   The Israelis follow a consistent pattern of policy of disrupting surrounding states with a view to reducing them to pastoral rug bazaars.  Our loyalty to the Baghdad government is amusing because it is virtually inevitable that the Shia run government of Iraq will eventually align itself with Iran and ask the US to withdraw from the country.

Iran.  DJT's decision to stop certifying Iranian compliance with JCPOA is merely a reflection of Zionist influence over the president and the hyper-belligerent attitudes of Mattis, and McMaster.  They are revealed as more neocon than the organizational neocons and largely in league with them.  US abandonment of JCPOA will lead to direct policy conflicts with major European allies and the loss of business for American companies like Boeing.   In the end this direction may lead to a US-Iran War as a culmination of Israeli machinations in Washington.

Saudi Arabia.  Trump prostrated himself and his country before the Saudis and the leaders of the Islamic World.  The Saudis expect that this was more than a symbolic and empty gesture.  Saudi Arabia is a weak state in actual capabilities in the world  It is a state that the US will not need much longer as a source of petroleum.  The feebleness of the Saudi government is demonstrated by the ineffectual nature of its war in Yemen,  This genocide is being aided and abetted by the US government as part of its cartoon-like conception of basic social and political structures in Islamdom.  The Saudi government grows ever weaker as   a result of this war and decline in its monetized assets because of a growing surplus of petroleum in the world.  The Saudi princelings are not worth the effort being put into keeping them happy.

 Qatar.  US military operations in the ME are centered around the command and control facility at Al-Obeid in Qatar as well as the air base itself.  The air base is useful but is only one of many used by the US in the ME.  By siding with the Saudis DJT has de-stabilized the US relationsip with Qatar and is driving the Qataris in the direction of an pro-Iranian stance.  Would the US fight to keep al-Obeid?  The Saudis won't do it for the US.

Afghanistan.  DJT made a bad decision in deciding to persist in fighting to establish a coherent government in the country.  The aggressive and successful efforts of the taliban in the last week demonstrate the weakness of a government that has a negligible GDP and no ability to fund its own armed forces.  The defeat of that government is a certainty  when the US eventually withdraws it forces.  The various Afghan peoples are inherently unsuitable material for the formation of a coherent state.  DJT's flawed decision was based on the advice of his national security team.  McMaster, Mattis and Dunford are too powerful.  The US government is inherently a civilian government.  There are too many military men at the top just now.

Try to think past the MIC cult belief and the absurd conception of a US Deep State.

To be continued ... 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Hodgson

Kurdistan - yet another long term British and US policy triumph

 

" ... the Iraqi military announced that elite units had been "re-deployed" at the K1 base, about 5km (3 miles) north-west of the city of Kirkuk, and that other troops had taken control of the nearby Leylan area, the Baba Gurgur oilfield, and the headquarters of the North Oil Company.

The military also said troops had taken control of a military airport, police station, power plant and several industrial areas, as well as key bridges, roads, junctions.

The Kurdistan Region Security Council accused Baghdad of launching an "unprovoked attack" and said the Peshmerga would "continue to defend Kurdistan, its peoples and interests".

Peshmerga had destroyed five US-made Humvees used by the Popular Mobilisation, a paramilitary force dominated by Iran-backed Shia militias, it added."  BBC

--------------

Iraq was created as a by-product of the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War One (1914-1918).  The present territory of Iraq had been ruled by the Ottoman Turks for several hundred years.  At Versailles the British were given what is now Iraq as a "mandatory territory" with the intention that the area be made independent at some point in the future.  Britain decided to cobble together something called the "Kingdom of Iraq" in this mandatory area.  There was no Iraqi People when this state was created.  There was no group that thought of itself as Iraqi.  There were a number of distinct populations that had little in common;  Arab Sunni Muslims, Arab Shia Muslims,  Kurdish Sunni Muslims, Kurdish Shia Muslims, Kurdish Yaziidis, Turcomans, Assyrian Christians, Chaldean Christians and Jews.  None of these groups particularly liked each other.  Nor did they like the Hashemite prince that the British installed as their king.

Soon after Iraqi independence was granted in 1925 revolts against the central government's authority began.  Kurdish revolts, Arab Revolts, etc.  Kurdish and Arab revolts had actually begun before 1925 in the period of direct British rule.  The British had actually exiled the Barzani of the day to India.  The Kurds of NE Iraq have been more or less in some form of revolt since 1925.  There have been periods when either the Talabani or Barzani Kurds have formed temporary alliances with the Baghdad government usually in an effort to screw the other major Kurdish faction but in general the pattern of resistance to Arab rule has been persistent.

The history of the State of Iraq from 1925 until the destruction of the state by the US in 2003 was characterized by a continual effort by the various Baghdad government to create an Iraqi national identity that subsumed the various groups that had happened to be in what became Iraq's sovereign territory.  IMO the emergence of Iraqi Man was still a work in progress when US invasion halted the process.

A new Iraqi state emerged under US occupation and covert Iranian tutelage.  This state is dominated by Shia Arabs.  IMO if a choice must be made in the future between the US as a sponsor or Iran the Shia government will turn away from the US and face east.  The Borgists believe that the US should have refused to withdraw its forces from Iraq and that the US will be able to refuse a future Iraqi demand for US withdrawal.  It is a big mistake to think the US could do that.  A refusal would inevitably lead to another country wide guerrila rebellion against the US.

In the present circumstance the US has encouraged both the KRG and the Baghdad government to think that it is our one true love.  Since these two historic actors have mutually exclusive and deeply held goals and desires, that  was a very foolish thing for the US to do. 

Will there be a secessionist war?  Probably there will be such a war.  The oil in the north of Iraq certainly exacerbates the crisis since the new Kurdish state would need the income to survive. 

As Churchill said. "just one damned thing after another."  pl

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41631697

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan

Donald Trump KowTows to Israel on Iran Part II by Publius Tacitus

While the Trumper gave a good teleprompter speech today on the topic of Iran and nukes, he demonstrated great ignorance on the reality that is Iran. He clearly is reflecting the Israeli right wing view on the matter, one that is enthusiastically embraced in the United States by the folks we now refer to as Neo Conservatives. (These are the same people that Phil Giraldi wrote about, America's Jews Are Driving America's Wars).

Trump's speech was laughable. The following passages illustrate how delusional the Trump is when it comes to Iran:

Iran is under the control of a fanatical regime that seized power in 1979 and forced a proud people to submit to its extremist rule. This radical regime has raided the wealth of one of the world's oldest and most vibrant nations, and spread death destruction and chaos all around the globe. . . .

The regime harbored high level terrorists in the wake of the 9/11 attacks including Osama bin Laden's son. In Iraq and Afghanistan groups supported by Iran have killed hundreds of American military personnel. The Iranian dictatorship's aggression continues to this day. The regime remains the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, and provides assistance to al-Qaida, the Taliban, Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorist networks. it develops, deploys and proliferates missiles that threaten American troops and our allies. It harasses American ships and threatens freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf and in the Red Sea. It imprisons Americans on false charges, and it launches cyber-attacks against our critical infrastructure, financial system and military.

The U.S is far from the only target of the Iranian dictatorship's long campaign of bloodshed. The regime violently suppresses its own citizens it shot unarmed student protestors in the street during the green revolution. This regime has fueled sectarian violence in Iraq and vicious civil wars in Yemen and Syria. In Syria, the Iranian regime has supported the atrocities of Bashar al-Assad's regime. And condone Assad's use of chemical weapons against helpless civilians including many, many children.

Where does one begin to counter such lies and misrepresentations? Who has been the most destabilizing force in the Middle East over the last 27 years? I would suggest that the United States multiple invasions of Iraq, military action in Libya and our decision to help arm and train Islamic rebels keen on overthrowing Syria's President Assad qualifies us as the biggest meddlers and chaos makers.

One of the recurring big lies being pushed in the media--by Republicans and Democrat as well as some of our allies--is that Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the World.

Who wrote Trump's de-certification speech? Part 1

 

"Iran has repeatedly insisted that it does not seek nuclear arms, but says it will not give up the ability to enrich uranium for energy and research reactors.

Instead of withdrawing outright, Trump will ask Congress to amend a law that gives lawmakers some oversight over the deal.

The Trump administration will ask Congress to add new conditions for U.S. cooperation that would address Iranian ballistic missile development as well as alleged support for terrorist or extremist groups in Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told reporters during a briefing ahead of the president’s address. The administration also wants to address “sunset clauses” in the deal that allow Iran to resume certain nuclear activities beginning eight years after the deal went into effect in 2015.

Tillerson called that a “countdown clock to when Iran can have a nuclear program again.”

These new “trigger points” would draw lines for Iran that are separate from the deal itself, Tillerson said. 

If the amendment is approved by Congress and Iran fails to meet the new requirements, the U.S. could impose new sanctions that would effectively break the deal."  washpost

--------------

Iran is in compliance with JCPOA.  The IAEA has repeatedly said so.  Tillerson says so. Mattis says so.  Nevertheless, DJT stated today that Iran is not in compliance with the "spirit" of the deal. 

What is evidently meant by the "spirit" of the deal is Iranian willingness to obey the United States.

Among the striking things in this speech was DJT's stated intention to pressure IC analysts to accept his view of Iranian actions.

I will post this now and watch the fur fly before posting further on the subject to sum up my own views and argument in the matter of Iran.  pl 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-to-set-new-conditions-for-us-to-stay-in-iran-nuclear-deal-tossing-issue-to-congress/2017/10/13/39ac3894-af82-11e7-9e58-e6288544af98_story.html?utm_term=.ba4ffb6c6e84

Trump the seducer and menacer

"It’s been an intense and oftentimes horrific week, but for some reason President Trump decided Americans should head into Friday wondering if we’re on the brink of war.

On Thursday evening, after the White House told the press it’d have nothing else for them, reporters were suddenly summoned and told the president had decided he wanted them to document his dinner with military leaders and their wives, according to the AP.

As the group posed for a photo in the State Dining Room, Trump gestured at the military officials surrounding him. “You guys know what this represents?” Trump asked. “Maybe it’s the calm before the storm. Could be the calm, the calm before the storm.”"  NY Mag

--------------

What is he doing? 

IMO this dinner was concerned with bringing the military chiefs to heel concerning Trump's  intention to de-certify Iranian compliance with JCPOA.  The group he had dinner with (Mattis, Dunford, McMaster, etc.) do not like Iran and would like to eliminate Iranian influence outside its borders but they do not want war with Iran.  At the same time the neocons and Israel are urging abandonment of JCPOA.  DJT talks to those people a lot.  They represent the Israeli desire to continue to urge the US toward war in Syria against Hizbullah and eventually Iran.  The conception of the "Iranian menace" that has been sold to Trump is largely a fantasy that insists IAEA certification of Iran's compliance does not satisfy the security needs of either Israel or the US.  The Iranians have now signaled a willingness to negotiate over their missile development program, but, no matter.  This does not matter to Israel/AIPAC.  they want Iran eliminated as a threat to their dream of regional hegemony. 

The dinner has the hallmarks of a typical hustler's deal closing event.  The nice dinner with everyone dressed up, the chamber music quartet, the presence of the ladies who are likely to hope for more such attention.  And, the implied threat is present.  "I can always get someone else."  We should remember that with the possible exception of Mattis, these men reached their present positions by kowtowing to the boss, whoever he was.

IMO Trump will abandon JCPOA and hand the result to Congress who are already in thrall to Israeli/AIPAC political warfare.

What will be the outcome?  AIPAC/Israel will continue to drag us toward war with Syria, Hizbullah and Iran and if any of thes emen object much he/they will be replaced with even more compliant or neocon oriented people.

pl 

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/trump-calls-military-dinner-calm-before-the-storm.html

Hezbollah – Capabilities And Role In The Middle East - South Front

 

"After the IDF withdrawal from most of Lebanon in 1985, Hezbollah with active support from the IRGC began to create its own weapons arsenals, and the January 1989 Damascus-Tehran agreement allowed Hezbollah to restore its military infrastructure and resume operations in south Lebanon. Thus by 1991 Hezbollah became the leading Lebanese resistance force, operating in the country’s south against the IDF

Starting in early ‘90s, Hezbollah began a transition away from being a purely paramilitary formation. In the summer of ’92, Iran’s leaders recommended Hezbollah transform itself from an openly extremist organization into an active Lebanese political force. Hezbollah reached an internal compromise between the “moderates” and “radicals”, established a ceasefire with Amal, and began active preparation for parliamentary elections. Hezbollah today acts as the leading political force in Lebanon and as a major Shia social and humanitarian organization (Lebanon has an estimated 2.5 million Shia out of 6.2 million total population). IDF withdraw from south Lebanon in 2006 was a huge victory in the eyes of the Arab world. Hezbollah has truly become a significant regional factor. Growing its influence in Lebanon and Syria and the region with Iran’s help, Hezbollah has become a base for recruitment, training, and preparation of volunteers for battling Israel and radical Sunni organizations. Hezbollah units often fight like regular army nits.

One of the reasons for the rise of Hezbollah’s regional influence is the strategic coordination between the Lebanese and Iraqi Shia, and also Syrian Alawites due to the continuous war in the Middle East. It’s important to note that the organization has proved its worth even in the darkest hours of Lebanon’s history, such as the many years of almost uninterrupted slaughter, but also during the perennial clashes with its external adversaries, even dangerous ones like Israel."  South Front

---------------

Hizbullah  and its "cadre" (regular full time) forces, reserve forces and paramilitary youth movements is the strongest political and military force in Lebanon.  contrary to the misinformation fed to DJT, Hizbullah is an integral part of the Lebanese government.  It has 11 seats in the Lebanese parliament and two ministers in Saad Hariri's government of the moment.  Hariri must have been floored when DJT said to him that Hizbullah was an enemy force, but, Trump was just repeating what the Zionists tell him every day.

I was unaware that Hizbullah now has a fully formed armored brigade (tanks) that is serving in Syria.  This is IMO part of the process by which Hizbullah is becoming a regular army, in fact, the real Lebanese Army.

Bad news for Israel.  pl 

https://southfront.org/hezbollah-capabilities-and-role-in-the-middle-east/

"Demand to cancel Iran deal is an Israeli spin" by Ron Ben-Yishai

 

" ... it’s clearly in the best interest of everyone—including the US and Israel—to uphold the nuclear agreement with Iran and then increase the measures to supervise its implementation in letter and spirit. The US, for example, is currently embroiled in an active nuclear dispute with North Korea, and cancelling the nuclear agreement with Iran will only cause trouble on another front and increase China and Russia’s extortion abilities towards the US.

Moreover, the US has no interest in withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran because all its European partners would not follow in its footsteps and, as a result, Iran would have no problem bypassing the sanctions that would be imposed by the US. An American demand to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran might also split the United Nations Security Council."  Ron Ben-Yishal

--------------

Israel under its present government wants Iran to be Morgenthau-ized (made into a pastoral rug factory) so as to eliminate any possible threat to itself now or in the future.  For Israel a 1% threat is too much.  Oddly enough (irony alert) that was Cheney's number as well. 

IAEA has once again certified Iran's compliance with JCPOA.  In spite of that Israel's entourage (including DJT) claim that Iran is not in compliance with the SPIRIT of JCPOA.  What does that mean?  Evidently the argument is that without Israel friendly policies in all fields, Iran can never be in compliance with JCPOA, this in spite of the fact that JCPOA is specifically and solely concerned with a putative Iranian nuclear weapons program.  pl 

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5017556,00.html

Turkey, Russia and Iran will police Idlib - HTS beware.

 

"The militant-held province of Idlib, mostly controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda), had been the main problem of the initiative since its official announcement in May. Now, it seems that the decision how to solve it was at least partly agreed.

The de-escalation zones are “a temporary measure which will initially last 6 months and will be automatically extended on the basis of guarantors’ consensus,” according to the statement.

The sides also introduced a joint Iranian-Russian-Turkish Coordination Center “to coordinate activities in the de-escalation areas.”

Eaerlier reports appeared that the sides agreed the borders of the zone in Idlib and were negotiating over which monitors will be deployed. The Turkish media pushed an idea that 25,000 members of the Turkish Army and Turkish-backed groups of the Free Syrian Army could be involved in the operation.

Meanwhile, the Russian military continued efforts to recinfile the warrying sides in Syria. 7 field commanders and over 1,000 militants have defected to the Syrian Army, the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of Opposing Sides in Syria said on Thursday."  SF

 https://southfront.org/establishment-of-four-de-escalation-zones-including-idlib-in-syria-officially-announced/

******

 "The Russian newspaper Izvestia quoted diplomatic sources as saying that the Saudi authorities consider that the Syrian President Bashar Assad can play an important role in the political future of his country.

Sputnik news agency published the report and pointed out that Saudi political analysts see that President Assad can be a part of the ‘transitional government, noting that the regional states are no longer raising the issue of President Assad’s departure in the closed sessions and describing the Saudi stance as an unexpected change.

A diplomatic source maintained that the Saudi do realize that the balance of power imposes the reality of President Assad, adding that the KSA officials are obliged to accept this fact despite their intention to overthrow Syria leader whenever possible."  AMN 

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/saudi-president-assad-can-play-important-role-syrias-future/

-----------

 The idea seems to be that the "protecting powers" will split off as much of the HTS coalition, leaving the hard core HTS (A--Qa'ida) isolated and vulnerable to a clean-up at some early date.

The end state difficulty (after six months?) will be to ensure that Turkey withdraws its troops to Turkish soil.  Irredentist yearning for Ottoman lands still burns in the bosom of Sultan Tayyip.  pl

-----------

If Saudi Arabia has accepted reality in Syria, wonders have not ceased upon the earth.  They might even wise up about their losing war in Yemen.  pl