Sic Semper Tyrannis

A "Tour d'horizon" of the ME - Lang's opinion

1.  Saudi Arabia has expelled Canada's ambassador and recalled its own for consultations.  It has halted any new business with Canada and stopped giving any new Saudi scholarships to its nationals for study in Canada.  'Adil Jubair (aka The Chihuaha, FM of THE KINGDOM) has taken umbrage with the statements of Chrystia Freeland and Le Petit Justin.   This happy couple said they were unhappy at Saudi governmental nastiness to women's rights activists.  Good heavens!  How dare the Saudis act like that in this modern age, an age filled with Canadian liberal values and Chrystia's well known disdain for local governments.

2.  The SAA is mopping up the jihadi population in east Suweida province.  These jihadis will probably be processed locally into soil enrichments as part of the Greater Syrian Desert Soil Bank program.  Their attack on several Druze villages this weekend with attendant rapine and massacre sealed their fate.

3.  At the same time the SAA and friends (R+6) continue to deploy to the north for the soon to be general offensive against NE Latakia and all of Idlib Province.  Air preparation of key terrain and targets is underway.  This will intensify as D-Day approaches.  At the same time assassinations of key jihadi figures is occurring all over the Idrib-Latakia-Afrin District area.  Some of this is murderous cannibalistic rebels.  Some is Kurdish in nature, but IMO a lot of these are operations of the commando units of Syrian military intelligence who have been more and more active in enemy occupied territory both in ambushes and reconnaissance.  The troop list for the big push is going to include kampfgruppen made up of tailored combinations of most of Syria's quality units and it will be armor heavy.  Tiger Forces teams, 4th Armored Division. Republican Guard, Syrian Marines,  these will all be represented.

4. China is teasing us all with the idea that it may send troops to participate in the Idlib offensive.  Their twin objectives would probably be to insure a foot in the door with the SAG for contracts in reconstruction as well as a desire to kill as many Uighur Muslims as possible in Idlib before they escape and return to western China.

5.  Trump's faithful execution of Israeli policy will result in re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran tomorrow.  The UK, France and Germany have announced that they will not be governed by these sanctions and IMO Trump will not have the stones to sanction these actual American allies. This will be another instance of Trump learning that intimidating countries is a different game than making hotel project deals.  In the case of tariffs the EU caved in what can be seen as bi-lateral negotiations but in this case accepting American orders to reimpose sanctions will be  seen as acceptance of a servile position.  The US position with regard to desired Iranian concessions includes acceptance of a statehood bereft of foreign policy or foreign interventions of any kind.  This is a maximum Israeli position that has been sold to Trump ,the real estate guy, by his donors and family.  Pompeo and Bolton, the neocons, are fully on board as well.  DoD is supportive.  Mattis is always seeking a childish revenge against the Iranians for their actions in Iraq.

6.  On the Palestine Front Jared has been swanning around the Arab World seeking to have them all accept an end to Palestinian support by UNWRA.  He, and the Israelis want the Palestinians deprived of the status of refugees so that they can be said to have no right of return to their ancestral homes in Palestine. With the exception of Jordan, the Arab States have always refused to make the refugees citizens of their countries.  The Palestinians are a distinct ethnic group among the Arab Peoples.  The Israelis hate that idea and have always insisted that the Palestinians could be easily absorbed in the Arab countries.  In fact, they have always been a profoundly disruptive political group in the Arab countries and are not desirous of absorption.  The general ignorance in the Trump Administration of anything resembling the history and nature of the ME continues to make ridiculous all the efforts of Trump & Co. to make peace among peoples of whom they know nothing except whatever the neocons and Zionists tell them  King Salman of Saudi Arabia has rejected the Jared Peace Plan and he is only the first to do so.  There will many.

7.  Trump, Mattis and Co. want to form a Sunni Arab version of NATO united against Iran.  This would include the GCC plus Egypt and Jordan.  Words fail me at the blind ignorance of this idea.  All these countries will gladly accept Saudi money.  That does not mean they will accept Saudi leadership in anything.  This has been proven over and over again.

8.  Yemen? We are assisting a genocidal war.  What else can be said?  pl

At least Nauru is still with us ...

 

"  nine states – including the United States and Israel –voted against the resolution. The other countries which supported Washington were Togo, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Marshall Islands, Guatemala and Honduras."  Guardian

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(irony alert) So, Perfidious Albion has bitten the hand that fed them.  That's right isn't it?  No?  What about all that Spam we sent them when they ran out of crumpets?  What about that?  Why would Palau have voted on our side?  Ah, there must be some pot of Golden Grickels from which they sup, maybe something about a Jack London memorial pearl fishery or, something. (end of irony)

 

Nikki Haley, is a city girl flower of South Carolina politics.  Do you suppose that she may be learning that THE WORLD is harder to bully than a bunch of "good ole boys" who like to put Rebel flag decals on their pick-up trucks?

And then, there are the related spectacles of the Israeli UN ambassador sneering just now on the TeeVee at THE WORLD whilst Iraq, Afghanistan, Jordan, Turkey and Egypt voted for the resolution.  I guess that means that they don't need the money badly enough to roll over when ordered. 

There will be no peace for Israel.  pl 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/21/united-nations-un-vote-donald-trump-jerusalem-israel

NOT SERVING AMERICA'S INTERESTS: DECAMERON

12/18/17  UN Security Council debating and probably voting today (Monday) on resolution to nullify the Trump declaration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

From DW (Deutsche Welle Akademie) this morning:

“The United Nations Security Council will on Monday vote on a draft resolution earlier next week that would consider any changes to the status of Jerusalem legally invalid and call on any such changes to be reversed.

“While not naming the US specifically, the Egyptian-drafted text, seen by AFP and Reuters news agencies, is a significant repudiation from the international community of US President Donald Trump's decision earlier this month to recognize the holy city as the capital of Israel and move the US embassy there from Tel Aviv.

“The draft resolution states that "any decisions and actions which purport to have altered the character, status or demographic composition of the Holy City of Jerusalem have no legal effect, are null and void and must be rescinded in compliance with relevant resolutions of the Security Council."

“The draft also demands that states refrain from establishing diplomatic missions in Jerusalem in accordance with prior Security Council resolutions that declare any changes in the status of Jerusalem as a city divided between Israelis and Palestinians to be violations international law."

http://www.dw.com/en/un-to-vote-on-resolution-rejecting-us-jerusalem-decision/a-41826293

UN debate comes after the OIC, the Arab League, 14 current members of the UNSC (individually) rejected the unilateral pronouncement on Jerusalem by Trump, and after mass demonstrations from Amman to Kuala Lumpur.  Blood is again flowing in the streets of Palestine with Israeli forces using live ammunition.  Liberal Zionists comfort themselves saying that the reaction is not as bad as they expected.  Too soon. -- Decameron

 

al-ghazali would be saddened.

   

"Sufism is a strand of Islam that eschews materialism and emphasizes the inward search for God. Sufi adherents are responsible for some of Islam's most famous and beloved literature, including the poems of Rumi. Followers promote values such as tolerance and pluralism.

[Egyptian army launches air raids after at least 305 were killed country’s deadliest extremist attack]

Sufi believers can be Sunni or Shiite, though the majority of Sunni. They see Sufism less as a sect than as a way of being, a set of beliefs and practices that lead followers closer to God. “It is nothing more than the spiritual dimension,” Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf told the New York Times. “It is Islam, but we focus on meditation, on chanting sessions, which enable the Muslim to have his or her heart open. The myths people have about Sufis are analogous to the myths people have about Muslims.”"  Washpost 

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/11/25/why-muslim-extremists-attacked-this-mosque-in-egypt/?utm_term=.632f67939730

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"Salafism is associated with literalist, strict and puritanical approaches to Islam. In the Western world it is often associated with the Salafist jihadism ^[2] Sufism is associated with the use of prayer, music, dance and the teachings of Sufi masters—who may serve as an intermediary between God and humans—to achieve a spiritual sense of the meaning of God.^[3]

While there are Muslims who believe that Salafism and Sufism "overlap", the "standard" Salafi response to Sufism has been called "polemical".^[4] According to various observers, Salafists have been "usually ... unrelentingly hostile to devotional Sufi practices",^[5] arguing that Sufism is "irreconcilable with true Islam",^[4] and one of the elements "corrupting" modern day Islam.^[6] Relations between the two movements have been described as one with "battle lines drawn",^[7] or a "rift" found in "practically every Muslim country",^[8] and in "the Muslim diasporic communities of the West"^[9] as well."  wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sufi%E2%80%93Salafi_relations

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 "Sufis were characterized by their asceticism, especially by their attachment to dhikr, the practice of remembrance of God, often performed after prayers.^[16] They gained adherents among a number of Muslims as a reaction against the worldliness of the early Umayyad Caliphate (661–750)^[17] and have spanned several continents and cultures over a millennium, originally expressing their beliefs in Arabic before spreading into Persian, Turkish, and Urdu among dozens of other languages.^[18] According to William Chittick, "In a broad sense, Sufism can be described as the interiorization, and intensification of Islamic faith and practice."   wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sufism

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The great Muslim scholar al-Ghazali successfully devised an argument for reconciliation between the intensely personal devotion of the early sufis of the Abbasid period and the pietist, scripture obsessed majority who wrested control of the caliphate from the Mu'tazila faction of scholars.  The Mu'tazila argued for what might be called an adaptationist understanding of Islam in which the Gate of Ijtihad (new understandings) would never close.  The Mu'tazila had been the dominant force in Sunni Muslim thinking during the reign of several caliphs but were bested politically and lost all influence.

Having accomplished this the pietists turned their attention to the sufis of the day.  There was a great persecution in which sufis were crucified, burned alive, dismembered alive and so forth.  al-ghazali stopped this by successfully arguing that the claim of the sufis to know and experience God was not blasphemy as the pietists insisted but rather was a description of experience of the reflection of God's nature in his creations. (Reflection of a  lamp in a window, etc.)  This made sufis tolerable to Sunnis in general.  (They were  almost always tolerable to Shia muslims) 

Now the wahhabi salafi takfiris have revived the persecution of the sufis.  My SWAG would be that this congregation were of the  Shadhili tariqa.  They are numerous in that part of Egypt and many of them are of a beduin tribe who understandably has resisted the IS devils.  There will be more abominations like this.

If my explanation does not satisfy specialists in these phenomena I can only say that I am not writing for them.  pl 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadhili

Turkey has aligned with Qatar

 

The diplomatic crisis in Qatar saw a new development Wednesday as Turkey's parliament passed legislation permitting the deployment of troops to a Turkish military base in Qatar. The legislation was drafted prior to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain severing ties with Qatar, but indicates that Turkey is willing to help the Gulf Arab country.

The bill was supported by both the governing AK party and the nationalist opposition.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated Tuesday that "Turkey will continue and will develop our ties with Qatar," adding that "we do not think the sanctions against Qatar are good." Erdogan insisted Turkey would have intervened if the sanctions of terrorist support were proved, but questioned the effectiveness of measures already taken by his Arab neighbors in isolating the small emirate. Reports of Qatar's ongoing support for regional Islamist groups, most notably the Muslim Brotherhood, and Shiite-ruled Iran, led to uneasy relations with many neighboring nations.  Weekly Standard

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Well, pilgrims you can add Mauretania the list of those following Saudi Arabia's lead in this.  They must be on "the dole" from Riyadh.

Qatar is a strange little place.  It is really a sandbar sticking out into the Gulf.  Qatar possesses large gas reserves but does anyone think that desire to possess these reserves motivates Saudi Arabia?   Qatar is the only Wahhabi country other than Saudi Arabia itself.  It exists because imperial Britain wanted to hold a non-Saudi piece of Wahhabi dominated "soil" in the Gulf region.  Qatar realizes the weakness of its position vis a vis Saudi Arabia.  The emirate is in fact if not in appearance an absolute dictatorship.  I was present at a meeting at the ruler's palace in Doha in which the then emir laughed and told the group I was with that if the West wanted democracy he would create things for them to look at.  He would have a parliament.  He would have a "free" press (Al-Jazeera?).  He said that there had been a subversive conspiracy attempting  a coup recently and that he had a number of the plotters in prison.  What should I do with them he asked this group of millionaires and corporate representative.   I do not wish to upset "The West" too much.  The response from the leader of the group was that the prisoners should receive due process.  The emir then changed the subject. 

Existing in such a milieu, Qatar's rulers have sought to "fireproof" themselves against a future in which Saudi Arabia decides that the Qatari mini-state's existence is unnecessary.

1.  Firstly, and perhaps most importantly they have given the US the use of land including the area of the former British air base at al-udeid and enough space to position USCENTCOM's forward headquarters in theater.  These facilities are very important to the US.  The air war in the ME is run from al-udeid air base, not the flying necessarily, but just about all the staff functions for command and control.   DJT does not seem to grasp the importance of al-udeid to the US air war.

2.  The "Al-Jazeera network" is a great irritant to the autocratic states of the Arab World.  It has always been such and it has been bitched about to me by rich and otherwise powerful Arabs from its creation.  It is clearly under the protection of the house al-thani (the rulers of this little country).  As I have said, this princely house is not IMO in any way democratic.  Al-Jazeera is part of the Potemkin Village of democracy that is presented to the West by the Qatari state, but that image is helpful to them.

3.  Qatar maintains a  certain ambiguity with regard to its relations with Iran.  It has recently chosen to emphasize that ambiguity, probably IMO in response to DJT's acceptance of his role as the mukhtar of America. 

And now, in demonstration of Sultan Erdogan's ambition to one day be thought Commander of the Faithful, the Turkish parliament has provided the legal basis for Turkey to intervene militarily and politically in settlement of the present difficulty involving Saudi Arabia, its Arab allies and mukhtar Trump on the one hand with Qatar and Turkey (possibly Iran?) on the other.

Can one doubt that Turkish support for the al-thani will achieve great influence in Qatar? If so, what will be Turkey's level of influence over US use of al-udeid AFB?  Without the C&C facilities at that base we would essentially be out of business in the air war.  And then there is Incirlik AFB ...

What on earth does DJT think he is doing by siding with SA against Qatar?  pl  

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar 

http://www.weeklystandard.com/turkey-approves-deploying-troops-to-qatar/article/2008364

Black Friday Thoughts - 25 November 2016

 

1.  President's Daily Book Briefings - The notion that a president or president elect is under ANY obligation to sit through a lengthy daily briefing from a team from the Director of National Intelligence office is just wrong.  This system was constructed to meet the perceived needs of various presidents for information on the world.  It is routinely reshaped to suit the desires of the president.  The intelligence guys would dearly love to shape their briefings so as to make them prescriptive, in other words definitive for policy.  They seldom get to do that but they do try.  IMO Trump has policy opinions of his own and is unlikely to be "guided" by the expressed opinions of the DNI or anyone in the intelligence community.  IMO that is a good thing.  Do we want to be governed by someone who yields to the self-important and organizationally "invested" views of the intelligence barons?  If Trump wants Flynn to inform him rather than listening himself to the artful blandishments of skillful briefers, more power to him!  I say that as someone who has briefed the high and mighty many times over many years. 

2.  An emerging ME alliance - Egyptian Air Force fighter aircraft and helicopters have arrived on a Syrian Air Force base in Hama Province.  The media speaks of an emerging axis of alliance among: Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Algeria to combat Sunni jihadism.  I presume that Russia will be very supportive of such an alliance.  At the same time Erdogan's Turkey continues to arrest thousands of opponents and speaks of joining the alignment sponsored by Russia and China even as he continues to support jihadis in Syria. 

3.  The Trump team - In spite of the plaintive bleating of the Democrats about the legally non-existent national popular vote and re-counts that will never happen or will prove nothing but the ability of Stein to raise money, Trump is moving steadily forward with formation of a national security side of his incoming administration.   If I were asked I would advise him to carefully interview people like Mattis, Pompaio, Flynn, Halley and other prospects for nomination or appointment to make sure that these people will follow his foreign policy in both specific and general terms.  Mattis lost his job as CENTCOM commander for crowding the Iranians by sending US warships inshore where they were evidently expected to provoke a fight.  This was contrary to Obama's policy and Mattis was warned about this behavior before he was replaced.  Mattis should be cautioned against exceeding his authorities before being made SECDEF.  Flynn's childish foolishness in going to Moscow at Russian Government expense to attend a conference and allowing his picture to be taken at table with Putin was so indiscreet as to raise questions about his maturity and judgment.  He should be privately cautioned against that kind of self-indulgence>  Pompaio is a tea party congressman from a great plains state who was once in the US Army for a few years and left as soon as he could.   He was first in his class at USMA?  So what?  He was an undergraduate and that was a long time ago.  He appears to be filled with a great belligerence towards Russia, Syria and Iran.  If President Trump orders him to stop all assistance to the "moderate" and jihadi groups CIA has been assisting in Syria, will he carry out his orders or seek to avoid them?  If Romney is made SECSTATE will he follow a policy of detente with Russia, China, etc. or will he try to go his own way?  There are yet more important nominations to be made; DNI, and Ambassador to Moscow among others.  All of these nominees should be interrogated for the same assurances.  If that is done a baseline for performance will be had.  pl

Russian "Volunteers" and Egyptian Army in Syria?

 

 

"News on dispatching Egyptian military forces to Syria to combat terrorism

Iranian Tasnim News, 3 Nov 2016 

Source: Mideastwire, copyright protected. Circulated with permission.

Media sources have been carrying news indicating that the Egyptian government has dispatched military forces to Syria in the context of fighting terrorism, and the military cooperation and coordination with the forces of President Bashar al-Assad’s government. “The sources said that Egypt is keen on offering military aid and dispatching forces to Syria in order to participate in the battles of the Syrian government against the terrorists now that major schisms emerged between [Egypt] and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The latter is offering support to the terrorists in Iraq and Syria in addition to the war it has launched against the unarmed innocent people of Yemen. The sources added that the Syrian and Egyptian governments will make an official announcement regarding this coordination, which will be based on combating terrorism, in the near future.

“A Syrian source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that spoke to Tasnim neither denied nor confirmed the piece of news carried by the media sources. He however indicated that, if this piece of news is confirmed, an official statement will be issued by the ministry of foreign affairs. “Maj. Gen. Ali Mamlouk, the head of the Syrian National Security Office, had visited Egypt some two weeks ago. This was the first announced visit to be carried out by an important Syrian official. Meetings were held with prominent Egyptian officials and the two sides could have agreed on increasing the military cooperation between them. “The visit came at a time when the Egyptian-Saudi relations are seeing differences over the discrepancy between the two countries’ positions regarding the Syrian crisis. Cairo believes that a political settlement involving all the different parties is the way to conclude the Syrian crisis, which has been ongoing for around six years. Meanwhile, Al-Riyadh believes that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must leave power first. In addition, Egypt has recently voted in favor of a Russian draft resolution regarding Syria at the International Security Council. This step stirred the dismay of Saudi Arabia, the number one country in terms of aid provision to Cairo. “Egyptian President Abdul Fattah es-Sisi summarized, last August, the Egyptian position regarding the Syrian crisis. [The Egyptian position] is based on five principles: “Respecting the unity of the Syrian lands and the will of the Syrian people; coming up with a peaceful political settlement to the crisis; stripping the militias and radical groups from their weapons; re-building Syria; and enhancing the state’s institutions.””"

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"According to Kapa, Russian veterans of the Ukraine fighting were recruited for ground combat in Syria when it became clear that Syrians would not be able to hold ground without help, despite Russian air support.

"The Arabs are not warriors by nature, but are thrown together and told to storm high ground. They don't know how to storm it let alone conquer their instincts and move towards the bullets. How can you make them do it? Only by setting yourself as an example," Kapa said. "That's why our guys reinforced their units."

Asked if fighters in the group coordinated with the Russian defence ministry, Kapa said: "Of course"."  The Independent

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 @Mike Allen - Is it not obvious that the "volunteer" Russian Military contractors are a project sponsored by the Russian Government?  They are transported to and from Syria in Russian government transport, are treated in Russian military medical facilities and are given Russian government decorations if KIA.  IMO someone in Moscow agrees with my observation that the "R" in R+6 should be bigger.  Don't get too bent out of shape over this.  It is very reminiscent of the AVG in China before Pearl Harbor.

Egypt broke off relations with Syria while Mursi was president.  He was, of course, an ally of the jihadis and the US State Department.  I am not a big admirer of the Egyptian Army and would be pleasantly surprised if they showed up in Syria and showed some fight, but they could be useful in garrisoning quiet areas.  pl 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/russian-fighters-kremlin-syria-civil-war-al-assad-vladimir-putin-a7396381.html

Will Saudi Arabia survive the Yemen War? - Re-published 2 September 2016

(In light of; the decline in the economy of SA, the apparently successful Yemeni guided missile attack on Taif, SA (700 Km from the Yemen border), and the presence of Yemeni forces in the Asir Province of SA it seems appropriate to re-publish this post.  It was originally posted in April, 2015)

"Pakistan's parliament voted on Friday not to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, dashing Riyadh's hopes for powerful support from outside of the region in its fight to halt Iranian-allied Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia had asked fellow Sunni-majority Pakistan to provide ships, aircraft and troops for the campaign, now in its third week, to stem the influence of Shi'ite Iran in what appears to be proxy war between the Gulf's two dominant powers.

While Saudi Arabia has the support of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors, Pakistan's parliament voted against becoming militarily involved.

"(Parliament) desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis," it said."  Reuters 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0N10LO20150410

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IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen.  This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY.  SA's armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary "stick and rudder" level of operations.  The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive.   On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located).  The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions.  In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents.  Egypt is dragging its feet.  The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US.  pl

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"Ground troops would certainly face stiff resistance from the Houthi militiamen. Seasoned guerrilla fighters, they seized parts of southern Saudi Arabia during a brief war in 2009, killing over 100 Saudi troops.

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out a ground attack, but its allies appear wary of such a move. The kingdom has asked Pakistan to commit troops to the campaign, but that country is deeply divided over participating in an operation that could anger its own Shiite minority.

Though fraught with risk, continued airstrikes and a possible ground incursion may be the only choices that Saudi Arabia sees itself as having, said Imad Salamey, a Middle East expert at Lebanese American University. He said that officials in Riyadh probably are concerned that relenting could be perceived as weakness, especially by Iran."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/saudi-air-war-struggles-to-make-gains-as-yemen-fragments/2015/04/09/1a045766-ddf6-11e4-b6d7-b9bc8acf16f7_story.html

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IMO Saudi Arabia is headed for an embarrassing failure in Yemen, one that will reveal its true nature as a gang of nepotistic hedonists sitting on immense wealth.

What could be more tempting?  pl 

Strategery in East Asia and thereabouts.

Babak suggested that we should have Korea and the South China Sea included in our list of strategeral concerns.  I agree.

Korea.  This nightmare state is evidently not going to suddenly disappear.  Therefore, we must think about it.  IMO they will keep doing product improvements on their missiles and nuclear weapons until they have one that will range Japan, Guam, Oahu or some such place.  What will we do about that?  Will we wait to see if they ever decide to perform such a mad act?  The retaliation would be awesome (teen talk).  Would we then invade North Korea along with our Spam tinned meat addicted South Korean friends for the purpose of occupying the ruins?  If we did, the South Koreans could be counted on to do the occupying.  You probably not want to watch the "sausage making" process of occupation, but ... A bigger question would be - what would Big Grandma do about all this?  The neocons are not focused on this problem because it does not involve Israel so she might be without comprehensive advice on this one. 

The South China Sea (China).  The Chinese evidently want to be a maritime power and to that end have been constructing man made islands built on the "foundation" of tiny sand bars that stuck up out of that distant sea in which I used to SCUBA dive and ... other things.  The US Navy seems perpetually absorbed in Alfred Mahan's vision of a world dominated by SEAPOWER!  Mahan believed that if you control the sea you control the world.  The air power guys seem to have second thoughts about that, but, no matter ...  Mahan is the unofficial patron saint of the US Naval War College where he was a professor and wrote his earth shattering tome "The Influence of Sea Power on History."   I'm a Clausewitz man.  Mahan never seems to go away.  I have been subjected by navy people to a lot of harangues on the Soviet sea power menace in the USSR's "drive to warm water ports" in India, Pakistan, Alexandria (once upon a time) and Syria!!.   Now, the Fu Manchu menace is "crowding" the sea lanes in the South China Sea with these island bases.  After she is installed in the White House the Borg Queen will have to deal with some old sea dog channeling Bull Halsey who wants to "show'em."  How will she deal with that? 

How would Trump deal with that?  Who knows? But ...  pl

 

 

51 neocons at State want another Iraq

 "More than 50 State Department officials signed an internal memo protesting U.S. policy in Syria, calling for targeted U.S. military strikes against the regime of Bashar al-Assad and urging regime change as the only way to defeat ISIS.

The cable says that U.S. policy in the Middle East has been "overwhelmed" by the continuing violence in Syria. It calls for a "judicious use of stand-off and air weapons, which would undergird and drive a more focused and hard-nosed U.S.-led diplomatic process."

 

CNN reviewed a draft of the memo, which has since been classified. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the memo's existence"  CNN

 

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Well, well.  These people have no idea what they are talking about.

 

1.  These are mostly Foreign Service Officers, chosen for a career in diplomacy by a written examination and an interview process that insures mirror imaging in educational background (mostly Ivy, Stanford or the like) and ideological coherence as a group.   the selection process is also very heavily burdened by a search for "diversity."  This is the very center of the Poly Sci/ IR  crowd.  Career Foreign Service Officers usually have no military background.  Neither do they generally have an interest in learning anything about a profession that they regard as "fun for the feeble minded."  Their attitude about military officers is that if you were smart like us FSOs you would be one of us.  It is an awkward thing for them that career military officers who reach the field grade ranks are generally possessed of more advanced degrees than the FSOs.

 

2.  The fabulous 51 are frustrated IMO by the unwillingness of the Syrian government to roll over and die to clear the way for what they think would appear to replace it.  They imagine this would be a coalition of the existing government (minus Assad and his associates) and its forces plus the FSA plus all the AQ related jihadi groups (Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, etc.) and that this coalition would destroy IS in Syria and then create a multi-confessional representative democracy.

 

3.  IMO all of this is a delusion.  IMO what would occur is that the Syrian government would not survive decapitation and would collapse as did the Iraqi government after we defeated their forces in our invasion.  People forget now that the Iraqi government had completely collapsed BEFORE the neocon faction in the GW Bush administration decreed a total abolition of that government and army.  At the very time that Bremer surrendered the process of debaathification to Ahmad Chalabi (an Iranian agent), the US ground combat commanders in Iraq at division level were engaged in trying to re-constitute parts of the Iraqi forces, government and police to help them re-establish order.  In a dramatic meeting Bremer told these generals that they would immediately cease and desist because the "day of the Sunnis has ended."  This statement of course ignored the many, many Shia Arabs employed by the Iraqi government in responsible jobs but the statement ably supported the neocon policy of enabling anti-Sunni groups across the region, whether they were religiously opposed or merely deracinated in the acculturation process fostered by institutions like the American University in Cairo.

 

I suppose we will now see how Obama reacts to this memo.  pl 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/16/politics/state-department-syria/

Ah... The Terrible Turks

" ...  a Kremlin statement made clear Russia was committed to its campaign against Islamic State and "other terrorist organizations", an indication that it would also target groups in western Syria where jihadists such as al Qaeda are fighting Assad in close proximity to rebels deemed moderate by the West.

Russia says the "cessation" does not apply to its air strikes, which have shifted the balance of power toward Assad.

It says Islamic State and the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front are the main targets of its air campaign. But Western countries say Russia has in fact been mostly targeting other insurgent groups, including some they support.

The White House said Obama's discussion with Putin stressed the need to rush humanitarian aid to Syria and contain air strikes.

"In particular, President Obama emphasized the importance now of Russia playing a constructive role by ceasing its air campaign against moderate opposition forces in Syria," the White House said in a statement."  Reuters

----------------

I worked in Turkey long ago, with the Turkish Army actually.  It was a very pleasant time, a two year vacation from the wars in SE Asia.  I like the Turks.  They are a lot like Americans used to be; blunt, inclined to direct action...  At the same time they treasure a pleasure in scheming that they share with the Syrian and Lebanese descendants of the vassals of the Ottoman state.

The US and the West in general have encouraged an attitude in Erdogan's Turkey that mirrors Bibi's statement that "the Americans can be pushed easily."  We all look malleable to Erdogan.  He is an MB style salafi.  He wants to think we are degenerate and doomed to live in a world dominated by his kind of Islam. We have given him no reason to think that is not the future.  At the same time we have tolerated his traffic in IS oil coming across the border east of Azaz and west of Jarabulus.    Why have we done that?  We must know that the money derived from that trade supports IS.

Now he threatens Europe with release of masses of Muslim migrants upon them.  We deserve to be threatened.  We look soft.

Now the Turkish Army is shelling YPG positions around Menagh village and its airfield near Azaz in Syria.  Why are they doing that?  IMO they want to keep R+6 forces plus the YPG from closing the border Azaz-Jarabulus and the shelling is a warning.  They have said that the Kurds must withdraw from these positions and not return.

Turkish 2nd Army is massing north of the Azaz/Jarabulus sector of the border.  The Saudi Sunni led juggernaut is at least notionally intended for combat in Syria.  Yesterday I raised the straw man idea that they might motor march all the way to Baghdad and beyond.  That seems implausible.  On the other hand a sea movement around Arabia and through the Canal to a major port like Iskenderun is quite plausible, especially given the news that Saudi aircraft are deploying into Incirlik not far from Iskenderun.  A Sunni juggernaut/Turkish Army link up in SW Turkey would provide Turkish fire and logistical support to the Sunni juggernaut.

What role would the US play in a scheme like that?  Unknown.

Would the Turks/Sunni juggernaut actually invade Syria and risk war with Russia?  Unknown.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0VN0MA

http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/turkey-shells-kurds-in-syrian-border-village-after-recapture/2016/02/13/

http://www.voanews.com/content/activists-turkey-shells-syrian-kurds-for-2nd-day/3190340.html

Diplomacy must reflect reality and not be mere attempts at trickery.

"The Syrian army looked poised on Saturday to advance into the Islamic State-held province of Raqqa for the first time since 2014, apparently to pre-empt any move by Saudi Arabia to send ground forces into Syria to fight the jihadist insurgents.'  Reuters

http://www.firstpost.com/world/lavrov-says-syria-ceasefire-more-likely-to-fail-than-succeed-reuters-2625304.html

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"If its forces retake Aleppo and seal the Turkish border, Damascus would deal a crushing blow to the insurgents who were on the march until Russia intervened, shoring up Assad's rule and paving the way to the current reversal of rebel fortunes.

Russia has said it will keep bombing Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which in many areas of western Syria fights government forces in close proximity to insurgents deemed moderates by Western states. " Reuters

 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0VM09G

******

"... advances continued Friday with Russian warplanes striking multiple locations across Syria, including in the northern countryside of Aleppo in support of a 10-day-old offensive aimed at laying siege to the rebel-held portion of the city of Aleppo.

Residents of the areas of northern Aleppo that have borne the brunt of the bombing campaign expressed dismay that the cease-fire would not come into effect for a week.

“Within a week everything will have been destroyed,” said Mohammed Najjar, a resident of the town of Marae. On Friday, he joined an accelerating exodus of tens of thousands of civilians toward the Turkish border, where they have been blocked by Turkish authorities from entering the country."  Washpost 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/skepticism-greets-syria-truce-deal-on-worries-over-russian-bombing/2016/02/12/74219ec7-389a-4102-a179-aeffb21cd76f_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_syria-915am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

******

“We will turn Iraq into a “graveyard” for Saudi forces if they dare attack the country,” Ahmad al-Assadi said.  South Front

http://southfront.org/iraq-will-be-a-graveyard-for-saudi-forces-ipmu/

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 I seem to recall that IPMU is the largest grouping of Iraqi Shia militia.  So, pilgrims, al-asadi believes the Saudi led juggernaut of Egyptians/Pakistanis/UAE folks (South American and African mercenaries mostly) and other assorted cats and dogs, would motor march up the long roads from NE SA (KKMC?) through altogether Shia inhabited Iraq to assembly areas west and north of Baghdad whence they would sally forth to to eliminate the "murtadoon" (apostates- according to Hojjat al-Islam Kerry).  Well, sayyid al-asadi, don't do anything to discourage the attempt.  I want to see how this would go down.

CNN aired another Frederick Pleitgen segment from Aleppo today.  He was visiting the front line with Syrian Army people.  It was quiet.  They said they thought the war would be over in a few months.  The anchor blondie who introduced the Pleitgen piece said he was reporting from rebel held Aleppo.  {{!!!!}}  The orthographic device {{----}} is hereby adopted to indicate irony.

Finally, the Great Diplomatic Dream Machine is clearly trying to persuade the Syrians/Iranians/Russians/Hizbullah to give up a winning hand through media BS.  Good luck on that!  pl

 

Why is the US so Anti Shia/Iranian ? - Republished 17 January 2016

On the occasion of the implementation of the nuclear deal with Iran it is important to remember a few things:

- It remains unclear as to whether the Iranians have had an active nuclear weapon development program since 2003 when they are thought by many to have ended it when the putative Iraqi threat was removed by the US.

- The 9/11 attackers/plotters/funders were all Sunni.

This is a a list of Muslim Groups presently actively hostile to the US:

- The Islamic State (Sunni)

- The Al-Nusra Front (Sunni)

- Al-Qa'ida Central (Sunni)

- Al-Qa'ida in Magheb (Sunni)

- Al-Qa'ida in Arabian Peninsula (Sunni)

- Boku Haram (Sunni)

- Al-Shabbab (Sunni)

- Khorassan Group (Sunni)

- Society of the Muslim Brothers (Sunni)

- Sayyaf Group in the Philippines (Sunni)

- Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan (Sunni)

- Lashgar i Taiba (Sunni)

- Jemaa Islamiya (Sunni)

- Houthis (Shia)

-------------

Shia forces bombed US and French facilities in Beirut in 1983.  That was 33 years ago.  Shia militias fought the US COIN campaign in Iraq.  So did Sunni forces.  Shia forces are now fighting IS in Iraq and Sunni jihadis in Syria.

So, why is it that US media consistently describe the Shia as a malevolent force throughout the Islamic World? 

Could it be because Israel/AIPAC and the Gulf Arabs want Iran contained as a geopolitical rival in the region?  Could it be that?  pl 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Beirut_barracks_bombing#Search_for_perpetrators

Petraeus reborn!

?

"... he said Syrian President Bashar Assad should be told that the U.S. Air Force will sweep Syrian warplanes from the sky if Syrian aircraft drop any more “barrel bombs,” a vicious generator of refugees. “We have that capability,” he noted.

That would at long last demonstrate U.S. seriousness — something lacking for Syria ever since President Obama erased his own “red line” on the use of chemical weapons early last year.

Petraeus advocated the formation of enclaves, protected by air power, supplied with radios and perhaps U.S. advisers. The mission should be protection of Sunni Arabs from all enemies, Assad’s troops as well as the Islamic State controlling much of Syria and adjacent Iraq. To that end the United States should embed advisers with Iraqi brigade headquarters and consider deployment of U.S. tactical air controllers to direct air strikes.

It was the first appearance of Petraeus before Congress since his conviction, probationary sentence and $100,000 fine for suppling a mistress with classified documents, something for which he apologized to the committee — again. That lapse in judgment surely has not made his expertise any less useful.  Boston Herald

-----------

The Boston Herald thinks this is great thinking and wonderful advice.

It is not!  It is terrible advice, and typical of a man whose much overblown reputation rests on the illusion that somehow he "won" the war in Iraq.  In fact, he took advantage of a largely sui generis revolt on the part of Sunni Arab tribesmen against AQ.  Petraeus had the brains to seize upon this revolt as something that would make the AEI inspired "surge" of additional US troops look good.  That is what happened.

He wants to create enclaves of sanctuary in northern Syria to "protect" the Sunnis from the Syrian government?  Hey David!  The Syrian Army has many, many men in it who are Sunni Muslims.  He thinks such havens could be protected by US Air?  What planet does this man live on?  Where has air power ever sufficed to protect any large area full of civilians?  No.  Such enclaves would have to be defended on the ground and not against the Syrian military.  No, the real enemies are the jihadis.  The enclaves would have to be defended against the jihadis.  Who will do that?  Who?

He wants to destroy the Syrian Air Force?  Words fail me...  What a good idea! (irony alert)  Let us remove an anti-jihadi force from the chess board in the game being played in the ME.  What a good idea!

The Egyptian president, Sisi, today told some newsbabe that if the Syrian government falls to the jihadis, the jihadis will then destroy what is left of modernism in the ME, But, no matter, what does he know?  What does he know?

I would not be surprised to see Petraeus appointed by Obama and The Girls to take John Allen's job as apprentice savior and deputy messiah (ME) for the salvation of the R2P dream of a world where the lions and the lambs do lie down together.  Good luck, David!  The world has not become different.  If you take the job you will fail again.

If Petraeus is lucky, the final collapse of present government in Iraq and Syria will not come so soon as to block his nomination to be some Republican or Democratic candidate's VP running mate.  pl 

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/opinion/editorials/2015/09/editorial_good_advice_from_petraeus

Egyptian Forces strike Again

St
 

"Egyptian security forces opened fire on a caravan of tourist vehicles in the country’s Western Desert late Sunday night, killing at least 12 people visiting from Mexico and injuring 10 others, among them Mexican tourists and their Egyptian tour guides, officials said.

The tourists were mistakenly killed by a “joint force from the police and armed forces” who were pursuing “terrorist elements” in an area of the desert, according to a brief statement posted to the official Facebook page of Egypt’s Ministry of Interior. The episode happened around midnight, security officials said.

“The incident resulted in the deaths of 12 people and the injury of 10 people from among the Mexicans and the Egyptians,” the statement said. “They have been taken to hospitals for treatment.”

The security forces said that they had believed that the vehicles were being used to transport terrorists. The statement said the group had been driving in a restricted area where unauthorized access is banned."  NY Times

**********

"EgyptAir Flight 648 was a Boeing 737-200^[2] airliner, registered SU-AYH, hijacked on November 23, 1985 by the terrorist organization Abu Nidal. The subsequent raid on the aircraft by Egyptian troops resulted in dozens of deaths, making the hijacking of Flight 648 one of the deadliest such incidents in history."wiki

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Deadly folks, the Egyptians.  If the Egyptian army is coming to your rescue kiss your a-s goodbye.

I happened to be involved in the EA 648 caper.  On that November day, I happened to be visiting the intelligence watch center of DIA, just to see what they were up to.  Seems to me it was a weekend.  No? Well, OK. The lieutenant general director of DIA came rushing in and cried out, "does anyone here speak Arabic or Persian or whatever it is they speak in Egypt?"  After a moment of stunned silence in the room, I said, "well, boss, that would be me.  I'm your head Middle East guy."  To be fair I was in civilian clothes.  He was new and the Middle East was probably not the part of the world that he favored.  We sprinted up to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's office.  This was in the Pentagon and the CJCS was Admiral William Crowe.  The phone on his desk was on "speaker" and people were speaking Arabic on the other end of the circuit.  State had patched a call through from the US Ambassador in Malta.  After a few seconds, I said, "Egyptians."  The ambassador did not speak Arabic.  Crowe said "there's a hijacked  plane from Egypt on Malta.  The  Egyptians have brought in some commandos.  Talk to this general. Talk to this Egyptian, find out what they are doing and interpret for me.  They don't speak much English."  The Gyppo and I chatted for a bit and I translated for Crowe.  Another Egyptian joined the conversation.  The three of us talked for a few minutes. The second Egyptian was the commando unit commander.  They discussed the weather,and how long this mess was lasting and then they decided.  I looked at Crowe and said, "the general has just ordered an attack on the airplane."  Everyone in the room laughed and said I must have got it wrong.  The director of DIA looked embarrassed at my linguistic incompetence.  Just then, there commenced a roaring sound of small arms followed by explosions (probably grenades).  Basically the Egyptians shot the airplane full of holes  and then walked aboard through the large gaps in the fuselage that they had made.  Crowe asked me if the two Egyptian officers had seemed excited.  "Not a bit, I said."  "Not a bit."

Sooo, pilgrims, don't be rescued by the Egyptian Army.  pl 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/14/world/middleeast/egypt-forces-accidentally-kill-mexican-tourists.html?_r=0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_648

Straws in the Middle East wind (FB Ali)

Having performed the modern equivalent of the ancient practice of predicting the future based on examining the entrails of a sacrificial animal, I'd like to share my findings with this Committee.

The young Saudi Prince Muhammad, having sown his wild oats in Yemen, seems to have now been taken in hand by the elders of the clan. In the process, of course, he perpetrated the most notable war crime of the post-WW2 era. Having drawn in the US as a (probably reluctant) aider and abettor, he has also ruled out any valid grounds for the US media and sundry 'keepers of the world's conscience' to expostulate in horror every time Rami Abdelrahman announces from his London basement that the vile Assad's forces had killed a dozen or two civilians. Not that this will stop them, of course. 

The clan elders steered Prince Muhammad (still the face of the regime, being the apple of his father the King's eye) to Cairo, where he was lectured on the facts of life by President el-Sisi (and then signed a pact between Egypt and Saudi Arabia). In the 'world according to Sisi', the villains are Islamists such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the various jihadi groups, while anyone fighting them, such as Assad of Syria, are good guys. Turkey is up to no good; it backed the MB and now supports the jihadis; it aims to re-establish its rule over the Arabs. Iran and Hizbullah are undoubtedly suspect as Shia, but have their hearts in the right place as they also fight jihadis. And, of course, all this needs lots of money, so thank you in advance for your generous assistance.

Field Marshal el-Sisi himself is currently on a roll, but his future is anything but certain. Having been let out from the penalty box where he'd been put for a while by the US, he has been compensated by a shower of F-16s, money, high-level visits, etc. With the blood he has already shed, and his continuing tough ways, he may have a suicide bomber get close enough some day. Or, if things start to go downhill in the country, another general or a junta may remove him.

Taif 2? - I think not.

"The basic fundamentals of the Doha talks were: 1) A rejection of the scenario of partitioning Syria, as it will create more instability and provides no end to the war, 2) Adopting the parameters laid by the UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura and by Moscow, 3) Working on an unofficial demarcation of areas of influence, 4) Negotiating, separately first, with Arab Sunni players and the Iranians to determine the final status of these areas of influence, a la Taif agreement, while leaving the door opened to direct talks later on, 5) General elections in Syria with a prior understanding that Assad will not run and that the new government will include representatives of all components of the Syrian society.

(Taif was the deal that ended the Lebanese civil war. It was based on an unofficial partitioning of the country to areas of “natural” sectarian and political control combined under a sectarian dosed central government)"  MEB

-----------------------

The author recognizes that this "solution" is partition in all but name as it was in Taif1 -Lebanon.

That agreement was negotiated over the heads of the Lebanese combatant factions and Hafez al-Assad by the triad of; Philip Habib, Dick Murphy and Rafik Hariri.  Habib was then Reagan's world-wide diplomatic mister fix-it.  He had been raised in New York City in a Jewish neighborhood although he was the child of Lebanese Maronite immigrants.  He spoke Yiddish and supposedly had a magic touch with those who spoke the language (and their overseas kin).  Rafik Hariri was the darling of the Sudeiri faction of the Saudi Royal family.  He had begun life as a poor boy in Sidon, Lebanon, had emigrated to SA, had become a Wahhabi and made vast amounts of money constructing public buildings for the royals.  Rumors abound as to what the connection was but I will not list them here.  He was a Saudi "citizen" at the time of negotiations.  And then there was Richard W. Murphy, the US ambassador in Saudi Arabia.  I worked for him there at the time.  He and Habib were busy most of the time traveling around the ME in Hariri's plane trying to unravel various Gordian Knots.  They schmoozed their way to what looked like a peace deal between the Lebanese (Gemayel) government of the day and Israel.  That fell apart when Hafez al-Assad learned of it.   The Lebanese were desperate for an end to their self immolation and the Habib/Murphy/Hariri flying carpet managed to arrange a meeting at Taif in Saudi Arabia.  Interestingly, this was held in one of the royal guest houses that Hariri had built.  There, the Saudis and the Americans arranged a deal that effectively partitioned Lebanon while preserving the image of a single sovereign country.  The deal did not require Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.  Hafez-al-Assad gave his assent with the understanding that Lebanon would be within Syria's sphere of influence.  The Saudis required that Hariri resume his former Lebanese citizenship and be appointed prime minister by the rump parliament that theoretically still existed in Beirut or what was left of Beirut.  The US assented and someone informed the Lebanese of the agreement. Lebanon has been a mess ever since with massive sectarian and political tensions just below the surface of daily life.  Lebanon continues to be treated as a regional pawn by all those interested.  Perhaps the Lebanese deserve this for allowing themselves to be abused and participating in the abuse.  Perhaps Lebanon, a colonial construct, should never have been a single country.  It was, after all, merely a French conceit.  For this deal to be made required not only the total exhaustion of the Lebanese fighting factions but also the acquiescence of all external players.

The Saudis have now been busy buying off Sisi.  That should work in this context.  Turkey will be enthusiastically "on board" under present management.  Are Russia, Hizbullah and Iran likely to accept defeat at the hands of; the Children's Crusade, the Izzies, and the 'Desert Irish?"

I doubt this is possible considering the mischief the US is fostering against Russia, the general attitude towards Iran of The Borg, and American insistence at Israel's direction that Hizbullah are merely terrorists.  pl 

http://mebriefing.com/?p=1847

Sunday Topics - 17 May 2015

There is a lot of interesting news this weekend:

- Former Egyptian president Mursi has been condemned to death on the inevitable charge of whatever it was that they charged him with this time.  The Sisi government is determined to kill him and a lot of other MB/salafist people in the belief that "dead men don't bite." Egypt is one of the more sophisticated  countries in the region and they can't manage a change of government without killing the losers?  This is really quite indicative of the hopelessness of trying to meddle in the internal affairs of such places.

- Having failed to persuade the Zeidi Yemenis to do anything they wanted by bombing them on the American model, Saudi Arabia has now declared a cessation of air ops.  One can only wonder if the Washington whiz kids played a large role in the "thinking" reflected in all this.  The Zeidis say they await the Saudis next move,

- Obama met a lot of Gulfie second stringers at Camp David.  The gripping and grinning and flesh pressing produced nothing, actually less than nothing since the Arabs must have gone away even more convinced that the US has no idea what it is doing in the ME.   Whoever it was that persuaded Obama to do a sit down with these guys should be fired or never listened to again, but that won't happen.

- It is revealed that Jeb Bush (el-Jebe) is temperamentally unsuited to be US president in the 21st Century.  He believes in such things as moderation, family loyalty, rational thought, etc.  He might have been useful in the 19th Century but, surely not now.  It is also revealed that his foreign policy advisers are the same lying bastards who got us into Iraq.  Wow!  BTW, who are HC's foreign policy advisers?

- On The FZ Global Public Square circus, Mr. 1% groupie (FZ) interviewed Gates (richest man in the world) from Seattle.  There, they indulged themselves in an orgy of exultation and exaltation over the strength of the American economy as reflected in the prosperity of the Seattle region with all its new style high tech industry, high education levels and other wonderfulness.  The underlying idea in this was the joy felt in the wonders of free trade based on international and regional comparative advantage.  All the world is now a free trade zone, FZ exulted, and how foolish the people who oppose TPP really are.  What was left out of this discussion were the large pockets of distressed and poverty stricken people (mostly colored) in the urban regions of the east and mid-west as well as the emergence of what looks like a permanent large underclass among those same people.  Many of the former industrial cities of the east have at least partially emptied themselves of the White blue collar class.  In mute acceptance of economic theory they have moved to follow jobs.  People of color often do not want to do that.  They do not accept the idea of disappearing into a larger population and  want to live in their own ethnic communities.  I don't think FZ visits them much or cares about the obstacle to his theories that they represent. 

- As b has stated in a comment on another thread we will see the real and perhaps final test for the Iraqi government when the "Hashd Sha'bi" Shia militia are committed to the fight in Ramadi.  IMO the US (and friends) in the government/military/media/academic world have no comprehension that IS is an alternative civilization seeking to emerge.  Because of that willful ignorance they are headed for a massive shock.

- Oh, yes, there was the much promoted story of the SF raid on a little site in eastern Syria.  Good job boys!  This was not the Waterloo of IS but the IO campaign on 24/7 news was a good distraction from the disaster at Ramadi.

- The British TV Highland/Jacobite romance "Outlander" has reached a level of psycho-sexual descent in which I (shamefully) watched last evening as Captain Jack Randall of the Hanoverian dragoons nailed the hand of the noble Hieland laird Jamie Fraser to a table so that he would not be inconvenienced by resistance whilst buggering him.  This was in Wentworth Prison (wherever that was). This occurred after Randall licked Fraser's scarred back and gave him a big smooch as Fraser's wife looked on.  Now I'll grant you that life in the Highlands in 1740 was probably not without its inter-cultural problems but this seems a bit much.  A question that occurs is whether this series was watched in Scotland before the recent election.  BTW, I notice that some people in a number of northern English counties are engaged in a Twitter campaign to decide if they should join Scotland.

- I am told the DoD has placed me under interdict and that my e-mail can no longer pass through their servers and SST can not be accessed from DoD computers.  That will solve things.  pl

Related articles

The absence of a wide Gulf leaders for the US Gulf summit in Camp David

Saudi Arabia: King Didn't Mean to Snub Obama

The Pakistani stance on Yemen … and its implications for Saudi–Arabia

 

By Patrick Bahzad

The Pakistani Parliament has spoken – or maybe it was the Chiefs of Staff in Rawalpindi. Pakistan will not commit ground troops to a land-based operation against the Yemeni "Houthi" rebels. The news arrived on Friday and have stunned several Arab States, mostly Saudi-Arabia, but also the United Arab Emirates. In the US as well, a sense of disbelief seemed to prevail among the usual proponents of the anti-Iran faction.

Pakistan's decision has drawn sharp criticism from these players, yet it is based on an instinct of self-preservation and national interest that should not come as a surprise, even to those advocating for a more aggressive approach in Yemen. What is at stake for Pakistan is not just its alliances with countries in the Gulf, but its standing in the future geopolitical landscape at the intersection of the Middle-East and South-Asia.

A decision made in defiance of military and economic ties

The violence of the reaction to Pakistan's declared "neutrality" with regard to the Saudi led coalition can only be interpreted as an indicator of the upset this decision has caused. In very undiplomatic terms, Anwar Gargash – the Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – has hinted at the serious consequences the Pakistani reluctance might have and openly declared, Pakistan could pay a heavy price for its "unexpected" position. The Saudi reaction has not been as vocal, but it goes without saying that Riyadh can't have been thrilled either.

Both Gulf countries, Saudi-Arabia and the UAE, are pumping massive amounts of money into Pakistan, year in year out. The Emiratis have built-up substantial trade relations in recent years, while the Saudis have always provided relief funding to bolster the faltering Pakistani budget. Last year alone, Saudi-Arabia has injected 1.5 billion US dollars into the bottomless pit that is the Pakistani Treasury. Riyadh has also been there in times of need for current Pakistani Prime-minister, Nawaz Sharif, for example when he needed shelter at the end of 1999, after the Pakistani army under General Musharraf had organised a coup and ousted the legitimate government.

With regard to operation "Decisive Storm", Riyadh and Abu Dabi expected – or rather demanded – Pakistan to repay its debt, as it had always done in the past. Up until now, Islamabad had never bulked at the finger snapping from the Gulf. After the seizure on the Great Mosque of Mecca by Saudi fundamentalists in 1979, which had been organized in part by a brother of Osama Bin Laden, as many as 20 000 Pakistani troops were dispatched to the Kingdom, in an effort to strengthen its defences against any challenge from within. That is also the reason why the "Saudi Arabian National Guard" recruited a number of ex-Pakistani military over the years, to fill its ranks with troops more apt at fighting local insurgents and – even more importantly – more loyal to orders coming from the House of Saud.

The US as Shiva, Lord of Destruction and Renewal

We are often told (by Barack Obama among others) that our ancestors sought a "more perfect union" in the creation of the United States.  The implication is that they sought a worldly and more or less secular utopia.  They did not.  The contemporary meaning in those words from the constitution of the United States was that the framers sought a more efficient and effective government than that which had existed under the Articles of Confederation.  The framers were solely concerned with the practicalities of government in their new country.  The "more perfect union" phrase is one of a number of goals listed and is clearly not intended as the governing theme of the Constitution.

Having chosen to misunderstand the preamble to the constitution,  and therefore the "purpose" of America, much of our ruling class now profess to believe that it is the purpose of the country to "reform" our society to their taste and to inflict the same norms on the rest of the world.  To that end it is held to be more or less self-evident that ancient motivations for international policy are at an end and that all, all of mankind should re-organize itself to our taste.

In pursuit of that belief the United States in the 21st Century seeks revolutionary change everywhere and to accomplish that has been willing and continues to be willing to pay very high prices in blood and treasure even unto the risk of nuclear war with those with whom we can truly commit mutual suicide.

 

Who Is Kidding Whom About Iraq or Africa or Anywhere?

"Islamic State militants on Monday continued to hold parts of the city of Tikrit against a much larger pro-government force after two weeks of battle, as Iraqi officials said they were pausing their offensive to call for reinforcements and to preserve property and civilian lives.

The slowing of the operation came amid reports that the tomb ofSaddam Hussein in the nearby village of Awja, a politically and emotionally charged symbol for all sides, had been destroyed in the recent fighting. Its roof appeared to have collapsed, with rubble strewn around the area, footage from The Associated Press showed.

Iraqi officials and allied militia leaders have been saying since last week that they are in control of the battlefield. They said that they had surrounded the handful of Islamic State fighters remaining in Tikrit, and that full government control would be restored there in a matter of days."  NY Times

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How long are we supposed to pretend that we believe the Iraqi and US governments' baloney about the "rising" Iraqi Army (Shia), and the prospect of a reintegrated multi-confessional Iraq?

Al-Obadi's much praised government of national unity is falling on its ass at Tikrit:

- The re-trained, re-formed, re-equipped New Model Iraqi Army launched its juggernaut of forces at Tikrit two weeks ago and has proven itself unable thus far to capture the city.  The Iranian Pasdaran (Quds Force) are there helping and advising them , and holding their paws to keep them from withdrawing to the south.  A mass of Shia militias who used to be Maliki's special police death squads are also at Tikrit to lend their weight to the effort. The Pesh Merga Kurds lurk to the NE threatening the IS line of communications and escape routes from the city.

- None of this seems to help.  The IS has withdrawn the bulk of its forces from the city leaving behind sacrificial groups (50+ fighters) in the city center.  These groups are apparently intended to demonstrate the lack of Shia seriousness in the task of defeating al-Baghdadi's forces.

- The hollowness of the Baghdad government's pretensions to represent all Iraqis is exposed by the reluctance of the Sunni Arab population of north central Iraq to entrust their lives and fortunes to their ancient Shia enemies.  The Sunni Arabs have been voting with their feet to avoid living under Shia militia domination.

- The forces of the Sunni tribes who were the real victors in The Awakening that brought AQ under control before the US left the country are hanging back, unwilling to significantly commit to the support of yet another Shia run government in Baghdad.  This government for all the hype among the Obamanite R2Pers  and neocons in the US is a close analog to the Maliki government for which we betrayed the "Sons of Iraq. "  That lesson in treachery was well absorbed by the Sunni tribes who now sense the continuing nonsense in Washington about national unity in Iraq is indicative of the potential for yet another betrayal.

Iraq as it was is no more.  The future holds the prospect of; a de facto Kurdish state, a rump Shia Iraq in the center and south and a wild, wild  maelstrom of tribes and competing interests in the rest of the "country."

The inability of US elites to accept sectarian and ethnic realities in the greater ME has led to this prospect of disintegration in Iraq.

Much the same thing is true with regard to Syria where there was immediate rejection of Kerry's reasonable statement that peace cannot be obtained there with out the  cooperation of the Syrian Government.  The Children's Crusade that is Obama foreign policy is still in charge everywhere.

Only in Egypt does the center hold but that is accepted with the greatest reluctance by the academic/bureaucratic/journalistic cabal that runs US foreign policy.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/world/middleeast/islamic-state-tikrit-iraq-offensive.html?_r=0

Tour d'Horizon - 18 February 2015

A television channel run by Lebanese group Hezbollah, which is fighting alongside pro-government units, reported that the Syrian army had taken control of areas north of Aleppo. The Observatory said Hezbollah was involved in the battle.

The pro-government al-Watan newspaper said on Monday that government forces aimed to completely surround the city this week in a major offensive against insurgent groups.

In December mainly Islamist insurgent factions in Aleppo grouped together to form Jabhat al-Shamiyya -- the Levant Front -- an attempt at unity among their fighters. Last month the Western-backed rebel group Hazzm movement joined the alliance after coming under pressure from Nusra Front.

Recent Syrian army progress in the area has reduced the chances of a truce between the government and disparate insurgent groups, diplomats say. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/17/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUSKBN0LL0JQ20150217

------------------

As TTG might say, time for a little soldier speak, the SAA might not want to yalk to the people they and HB are defeating?

Well, no s--t pilgrims!  Local truces are breaking out all over the country outside the IS controlled areas.  The rebel owned parts of Aleppo seem to have been sealed off.  Why talk to the rebels?  Just starve them out.  Aleppo has been besieged many times and that was the usual methodology.  pl

***********

"In a separate development on Tuesday, the influential Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr announced he was withdrawing his forces from an umbrella group of Shia militia fighting IS alongside the Iraqi army.

He cited what he called the bad behaviour of other militia within the Popular Mobilisation Forces, whom he accused of 'wreaking havoc through murdering, kidnapping and violating sanctuaries'.

Shia militia have been accused of kidnapping and killing scores of Sunni civilians since Islamic State launched an offensive in northern Iraq last June that saw it seize large swathes of the country.

 Elsewhere, there are reports at least 35 more Egyptian Christians are feared to have been kidnapped by jihadists in retaliation for air strikes on targets in Libya.

Militants from the Islamic State and Ansar Al-Sharia are understood to have rounded up dozens of farm workers in the wake of bombings by Cairo, it was reported by local media.

The move is believed to be a direct response to strikes by Egyptian warplanes yesterday which came after fanatics released a horrific video showing the beheading of 21 Christians on a beach."  Daily Mail

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2957471/ISIS-burn-45-people-death-captured-Iraqi-town-Baghdadi-Islamists-attack-homes-security-forces-families.html#ixzz3S8482Bhs 

----------------

They will kill the 35 as well.  IMO the conduct of IS is so far  outside the scope of even "normal" jihadism as to make them justifiably subject to the most extreme measures.  To some extent I think they are trying to provoke the US into a group of wars that can be used as mobilization propaganda across the world of Islam.  Sadly, they will probably succeed because their deeds are so horrific and their stance is so uncompromising that they cannot be ignored.  Imagine what will happen when they capture US soldiers.  Imagine.  pl 

***********

 "The 21 decapitations pushed Sisi into open action, expanding his battle against Islamist militancy in Libya not long after he appeared to be gaining the upper hand against militants in the Sinai Peninsula who support Islamic State.

On Tuesday, he called for a United Nations resolution mandating a U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to intervene in Libya.

Ahead of a U.N. Security Council meeting on Wednesday on the situation in Libya, Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri met on Tuesday with ambassadors from the council's five veto-wielding powers - the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

Since the fall of strongman Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, a number of Islamist movements have taken hold in Libya. Recently, some have declared ties to Islamic State and claimed high-profile attacks in what appears to be an intensifying campaign."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/18/us-egypt-libya-idUSKBN0LM1JK20150218

--------------------

Libya has proven itself incapable of self stabilization.  IMO there will be no choice but for a UN sponsored force to occupy Libya.  pl 

 

 

Will Egypt seek to occupy Libya?

"The footage shows a group wearing orange overalls being forced to the ground and then decapitated.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has said Egypt reserves the right to respond in any way it sees fit.

IS militants claim to have carried out several attacks in Libya, which is in effect without a government.

However, with many armed groups operating in Libya, it is not clear how much power IS actually wields."  BBC

-------------------

Egypt began a program of air attacks in Libya today.  I would imagine that is just a beginning.

Will Egypt seek to occupy Egypt to put paid to the various Jihadi factions?  It is quite possible that this will happen.  Is Egypt capable of carrying out such an operation?

I do not think so.  pl 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-31481797

 

The Head of al Azhar Issues a Condemnation of ISIL's Execution of Lt. al Kasaesbeh

*

Adam L. Silverman

Reuters is reporting that Ahmed al Tayeb, the Grand Sheik of al Azhar University has not only condemned ISIL's burning of Lt. al Kasaesbeh, but has stated that "such a form of killing, is abhorrent under Islam, no matter the justification". In fact Sheikh al Tayeb went so far as to state that those who committed such acts deserved to be: "killed, crucified or to have their limbs amputated.

Al Azhar is the oldest, continuously operating Sunni Muslim school of higher education. It will be interesting to see exactly what, if any, effect Sheikh Tayeb's stance has. Reuters' report also includes reaction from senior Sunni clerical authorities in other parts of the Muslim world, both Arab and non-Arab. Click over to read the whole report.

* al Azhar Crest was found here: http://www.cicot.or.th/2009/images/stories/200px-Al-Azhar_University_logo_svg_png%20(PNG%20Image,%20200x287%20pixels)_1268135062853.jpg

'In need of a religious revolution' Toronto Sun

"On Jan. 1, the president of Egypt made a stunning speech.

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi spoke at Al Azhar, the greatest university in the Arab world, a place of Islamic scholarship dating back more than a millennium.

Al-Sisi didn’t just speak to scholars though. He also addressed the Awqaf Ministry, the government’s religious department that funds mosques and Muslim imams across Egypt.

Al-Sisi is Egypt’s president and he’s also its top general. And his speech was an order. A plea, but a command as well: Islam needed to reform itself.

The problem was Islam’s violence. Islam, said al-Sisi, has become the world’s enemy. “It's inconceivable that the thinking that we hold most sacred should cause the entire Islamic world to be a source of anxiety, danger, killing and destruction for the rest of the world. Impossible!”

How was it that the religion they all loved is so hated by the rest of the world? Why is the world so Islamophobic – not in the politically correct meaning of that phrase, but in the literal meaning of that phrase. Why is the world so scared of Islam?

It wasn’t Islam, the religion, he said. It was Islam, the radical political force."  Toronto Sun

--------------------

 Babak.  We await your voice.  I anticipate your unhappiness with the notion that Islam can be "reformed."  Of course you are Shia and the notion of gradual adaptation to a changing world through accumulated fatwas from the senior scholars of the hawza is embedded in your version of the faith.

From the point of view of al-Sisi the largest problem is with the much larger Sunni Islamic presence because of the rigidity of the process of non-adaptation to a changing world that has been deeply characteristic of Sunni Islam for a millennium and more.  The presence within the Sunni "community" of factions that hold extreme salafist opinions and who are willing to put them into action by force of arms has become a problem for the whole world..

IMO, a Sunni reformation from within religious and governmental institutions like Al-Azhar and the Ministry of Awqaf in Egypt is badly overdue. 

Many people here at SST are still horrified at the level of destruction wrought upon Iraq, Pakistan, etc.  by the United States.  As I have written before "you ain't seen nuttin yet."  The US was distracted by the false dogma of COIN in these wars, a doctrine easily accepted as a panacea by the ignorant.  This doctrine sought an accomodation with local populations through "good works" but  carried out in the context of a largely unadaptive world view on the part of the populations involved.

Most Americans, while willing to give such efforts a "try," really prefer overwhelming brute force and the complete destrction of enemies.  The air campaigns of annhilation that we waged against Germany and Japan were not a fluke.  We never really applied that level of force in the recent wars.  The possibilities available are virtually unlimited.

Al-Sisi sees the danger.  His call for attitudinal reform is an attempt to save his people, the Muslim people across the world.

He should be listened to.  Events in France point to future degeneration of the situation of the Muslims that should give them all pause. 

Al-Sisi went to Mass on Christmas as a symbol of his acceptance of the Copts as fellow Egyptians.

I am gratified to hear of his open minded approach to this deep problem.  pl  

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/01/05/in-need-of-a-religious-revolution 

New War Game Prep - 29 December 2014

I will start a second world wide war game involving the Salafist jihadi community vs the rest of us.

This time I want to do this by teams with me acting (perhaps with others) as control and "all others."

I want to have a number of player teams:

Turkey (I have two Turkish volunteers)

Israel

Syrian Government

Iraq

Iran

Russia

NATO

USA

Jordan/Egypt

The GCC

IS/Nusra/MB

Write me at ismoot@turcopolier.com to volunteer. I will make selections.  Play will be in turns as before.  Tell me if I have missed something.

PL

 

 

ME/Afghan Potpourri - 29 November 2014

"... officials want to lessen the risk that U.S.-trained fighters sent back into Syria to combat the Islamic State will use their weapons on civilians or — like the Afghan mujahideen fighters Washington backed in the 1980s — later turn against the United States and its allies.

Under the plan, which has not been finalized, “moderate” fighters will be evaluated on an ongoing basis. Successful participants would gradually attain access to higher levels of training and weaponry, and fighters found to be wanting would be dismissed from the program.

“We’re taking it extremely seriously,” a senior U.S. defense official said. He said fighters will also be educated about the laws of armed conflict."  Washpost 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-military-will-use-psych-evals-stress-tests-to-screen-syrian-rebels-for-training/2014/11/28/39bb9362-7712-11e4-bd1b-03009bd3e984_story.html

-------------------

This is a good idea that probably won't work very well.  CENTCOM thinks it can "screen" potential "surrogate fighters" en masse well enough to keep them from doing what they please once turned loose in Syria?  Good luck!!  Every single one of the people they will deal with will have his own agenda and they will all be willing to tell the screeners whatever they think is necessary to be armed and trained.  In HUMINT ops, COIN ops and UW ops I have been involved in doing much the same kind of screening and the outcome was always "dicey" and very dependent on the subjective judgment and skill of the screener.  At the beginning of the US occupation of Iraq an industrial psychologist was hired to vett prospective Iraqi policemen.  He  devised a questionnaire to administer to the candidates to determine their suitability.  He asked me to read it and to give an opinion.  I told him that this test would be disastrous.  "Why?" he asked.  l told him that the testees would lie to get what they wanted.  He professed to find that hard to believe.  I told him he needed to meet more people in the ME.  His test produced the police Shia death squads.  pl

***************

 "An Egyptian court on Saturday removed all remaining charges against former President Hosni Mubarak, raising the possibility that Mr. Mubarak could go free for the first time since he was removed from office in the 2011 uprising that defined the Arab Spring.

During earlier hearings in the various proceedings against Mr. Mubarak human rights lawyers demanded harsh punishment for his three decades of brutal autocracy, but Saturday’s court session was packed with Mubarak supporters who erupted in cheers at the verdict."  NY Times

 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/30/world/hosni-mubarak-charges-dismissed-by-egyptian-court.html?_r=0

-------------------

I love the ME.  The more things change the more they remain the same.   He'll be out shortly and anyone in Egypt with any brains at all will be very subdued in commenting on the court's "mercy."  At the time of the revolting Arab Revoltings I told Yussuf al-Misri that after a short delay there would come to be a struggle between the salafists (MB, etc.) and the Army and that the Army would win.  And lo, this has come to pass.  My old friend 'Umar Suleiman would have a good laugh.  BTW, he despised Mubarak.   pl

***************

"Eyewitnesses say militants have launched an attack on a foreign guesthouse near parliament in the Afghan capital of Kabul.The Taliban  immediately claimed responsibility for the attack Saturday on the guesthouse, home to Europeans working for the Afghan government.Police officials had no immediate comment. Eyewitnesses told The Associated Press  that suicide bombers and gunmen were taking part in the assault.The attack comes amid a series of deadly assaults in the capital targeting foreigners amid the withdrawal of most NATO  troops by the end of the year.

 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/World/2014/Nov-29/279352-taliban-raid-foreign-guesthouse-in-afghan-capital.ashx?utm_medium=email&utm_source=transactional&utm_campaign=Newsletter#sthash.a9qenmgf.dpuf

---------------------

Ah, yes, tell me again how grand life will be in Kabul in the next few years.  pl

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 3 - Forecast of events until 4 July 2015

Summary of events in game world/game time from 5 November 2014 to 1 March, 2015.

Kobane Front.

In spite of increased US air support Kobane was totally in IS hands by 15 November.   Several thousand residents fled across the border into Turkey before the end came.  Over the next several weeks IS staged several execution dramas for the TV cameras waiting on the hillside across the border from the city.   The UN estimates the number of executed to be more than 5,000.  IS has kept several more thousand residents alive and display them on roof tops for the benefit of US air reconnaissance. This has effectively stopped US air attacks on the city.  IS forces previously concentrated in the action at Kobane have moved to other positions along the border or to the Aleppo area.  Kurdish rioting has built steadily in Turkey since the fall of Kobane.  These riots have been put down with severity by the Erdogan government's police.  There have been numerous instances of intercommunal conflict across Turkey between ethnic Turks and Kurds.

Aleppo front.

SAR forces completed encirclement of Aleppo before the end of the battle at Kobane.   IS forces returning to Aleppo have repeatedly tried to break the Syrian lines of circumvellation but have failed in spite of heavy employment of suicide truck bombers as part of their fire plans for attacks.  Syrian and US air attacks are occurring in close proximity to each other against much the same IS forces who are trying to break the SAR siege.

Turkish Front.

In December, Turkey announced its revocation of permission for the French Navy carrier battle group's presence in the Black Sea as well as for over flight clearance for anti-IS air operations in Iraq.  Turkey stressed that emergency landing rights for damaged French aircraft would still be available at Batman.  France withdrew from the Black Sea in January re-positioning the battle group in the Mediterranean Sea NE of Cyprus where it began air operations against targets in northern Iraq.  Syria's foreign minister expressed satisfaction with that as well as blanket overflight clearance for French aircraft from the De Gaulle to and from Iraq.  Syria also offered to exchange IFF codes with France to prevent accidental engagements.  It is believed that France responded favorably to the offer.  In February a group of active and retired senior Turkish Army officers attempted to depose Erdogan's government.  The attempt failed when Turkish Jandarma units loyal to Erdogan blocked the attempt of a Turkish Army brigade to occupy the capital, Ankara.  The brigade has been disbanded and many of its officers and soldiers arrested and held for trial for treason and mutiny.  The generals and colonels who instigated the coup attempt have fled into hiding within Turkey.  The government accuses the Army of hiding them within Turkish Army cantonments.  In March Erdogan allowed IS to open two more consulates.  One is in Antakya and the other in Erzerum.  This action and the cancellation of the waiver for France in the Black Sea has caused backchannel discussions in NATO of the possibility of expelling Turkey from NATO. Russia has made it clear that it would not veto a resolution condemning Turkey in the Security Council so long as the resolution includes economic sanctions.  China has not expressed an opinion with regard to such a resolution.  Ambassador Samantha Power has made a public statement that the US opposes such a resolution.

Kurdish Front.

Covert and unacknowledged US/Iranian cooperation has continued in building up the Pesh Merga. US aircraft are now operating in significant numbers from KAR airfields.  Equipment and supplies are now arriving with Iranian cooperation in overland deliveries from Gulf ports.  These deliveries have enabled a steady build up in PM capabilities.   The KAR government has made it clear that it has no interest in advancing its forces beyond what it considers to be authentically Kurdish territory.  The KAR government has made it clear that it will not attempt to relieve Baghdad or any other area under Iraqi covernment control if such operations endanger Kurdish forces.

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 2 (Forecast to 1 March 2015)

Situation as of 5 November 2014

Diplomatic Front

Russia, France and Turkey have agreed to a one time exception to the Montreux Convention to allow positioning of the French Navy De Gaulle carrier battle group in the eastern Black sea for the purpose of air operations against IS in Iraq.  France does not want to participate in Syrian operations.  France does not want to lured into overflying Syria.  Turkey will allow overflight of eastern Anatolia to and from Iraq.  Turkey will also allow forward positioning of French naval SAR at Batman and emergency landings at Batman, Mus and Erzurum as necessary. Russia has offered the French battle group port privileges at Sebastopol for ship chandler and re-fueling operations.  France has yet to respond to this offer.

Turkey continues to deny the US the use of its airbases for offensive operations in either Syria or Iraq. Turkey seems to believe that it has enough leverage over US to force US ground participation in decisive campaign against the Syrian government as well as in establishment of a "no fly zone" in Syria that would inevitably result in direct combat between US and Syrian air forces.

Iranian assisted Pesh Merga forces in eastern Iraq continue to receive US air support.  This unacknowledged cooperation between Iran and the US is effective.

Syria's foreign minister stated once again on 1 November that Syria is pleased with US intervention against IS forces and positions. Syrian and US aircraft are carefully avoiding each other by mutual consent.

Terrorist Front

In Jordan, IS sympathisers attacked and killed two American tourists at Petra on the 20th of October.  Three French tourists were kidnapped on 25 October from the vicinity of one of the Ummayad hunting lodges in the eastern desert near Azraq air base. The kidnappers were Saudi beduin who took the French back across the border into the northern Najd where they have posted Utube videos demanding multi-million Euro ransoms for each one.  They state that if their demands are not met they will begin beheading the captives in the name of the Caliph Ibrahim.  The Saudi government has made no effort to rescue these people.

German police have apprehended an Al-Qaida affiliate cell in Hamburg. The group was well advance in planning a bombing attack against the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Political Front

The US mid-term election resulted in Republican gains in the House of Representatives and control of the senate by the GOP 53-47.  On 5 November, Senator McConnell, the presumptive next majority leader, demanded that President Obama take firm and decisive action against Islamic terrorism and IS in particular or face decisive action with regard to failure to  "defend the United States." A large group of Republican senators voiced immediate agreement.  Washington is overflowing with media hyped rumors that Obama is about to seek a new civilian national security team.

By 5 November a dozen new Ebola cases had appeared in the US causing a serious distraction from foreign affairs.  Many more had appeared by then in Europe.  Media personalities excoriated public health officials on both continents.  In west Africa the first cases of US military personnel displaying signs of what might be Ebola had appeared by 5 November.

President Obama had not, by 5 November, authorised a US ground presence in Iraq or Syria other than as operations advisers, trainers and guard for the embassy in Baghdad.  As a result the nearest US ground combat units were in Kuwait and Jordan.

Kobane Front

By 5 November IS had taken 90% of the town, in spite of the large number  of coalition air strikes, many of them flown, at Kurdish request, by US heavy bombers against targets inside Kobane.  These had failed to halt IS' advance but killed many Kurdish defenders and destroyed much of the city.  On the 2nd of November IS brought a hundred Kurdish prisoners to the Turkish border where they were executed for the TV cameras.  This was staged for network news.  In the fighting for Kobane throughout the latter half of October the IS used suicide truck bombers as part of their attack fire plans, rolling the trucks forward through their infantry lines to detonate them just before assaults.

Aleppo Front 

More and more IS fighters have returned to the Aleppo area for the purpose of trying to stop the Syrian Army's finalization of the encirclement of the old city.  US air activity has followed them and as a result, US aircraft are now (5 November) flying missions against ground targets presently engaged by the Syrian Army.

KAR front.

US aircraft are now operating from several KAR airfields. Erbil, Suleimaniya, etc.  USArmy's first SFGA is present in increasing numbers in the KAR.  They are returning to the region with many of the people who were instrumental in the "awakening."  Contacts are being re-established and these SF soldiers are returning to the tribal areas behind IS lines.  Most of 1 SFGA are engaged as adviser/trainers with the Pesh Merga.

Anbar Front

Nearly all of Anbar Province was in IS hands by 5 November.  Captured M198 155 mm. howitzers have been emplaced in camouflaged singleton positions within range of BIA.  "Searching fire" against the airport began in late October.  Two HE shells landed on the apron in front of the passenger terminal on the 25th.  The dozen airlines that had been operating through BIA then "suspended' operations until safety could be assured.   In the last week of October, IS artillery fire against the airport improved in accuracy. The reason for this was revealed when several airport employees were arrested by the secret police and charged with spotting for IS artillery and reporting by cell phone.  These arrests were followed the next night by a ground suicide bomber attack on aviation fuel stores at the airport.  It had been hoped that the provision of counter-battery radar to Iraqi Army artillery would enable them to suppress IS artillery, but, in the event, Iraqi Army artillery commanders have declined to advance to firing positions from which they could be effective.   IS sympathisers in the area report Iraqi Army firing positions by cell phone and the resulting fire is more than than the Iraqi Army want to experience.  

Baghdad Front

Large numbers of Shia have begun to leave the area of Baghdad west of the Tigris.  More and more arms caches in that part of the city are being discovered by the police.

----------------

Based on this statement of the situation as of 5 November- 2014, forecast your views as to what is likely to occur between 5 Nomber, 2014 and 1 March 20.

Real world time for inputs for this turn will expire at 1600 GMT, 12 October 2014.

DO NOT FIGHT THE PROBLEM. The game is intended to be a pedagogic tool for sharpening our understaning of outstanding issues.  IT IS NOT intended to be predictive of the future.  pl 

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 1, The Situation as of 7 October 2014

We are going to play a game on SST.  This game will be a miniature version of the large scale politico-military games played by a number of corporations under contract to government entities in Europe and the United  States.  This game is based on the general principles of government gaming and does not derive from any company's proprietary interest.  The purpose of this game will be educational for all of us participants rather than implied policy prescriptions as in many government contract games.  These threads (each move) will not preclude other threads in parallel. 

The subject of the game will be the probable course of military and geopolitical events in the war between IS and the anti-IS coalition constructed by the United States over the next six months. Although IS and the coalition are the principal players, all those parties whose interests are involved in the contest can be introduced as additional players by participants.  Diplomatic, economic, political and military elements of the situation are to be included in the play.

The game will be played in "turns."  W. Patrick Lang (turcopolier) will act as umpire, omniscient observer and control for the game as Turcopolier Control.   The period of time available for completion of a task will be stated when each sub-part of a turn is posted.

The first turn will consist of two parts:

- A data call from players for statements of the real world  situation as of this date - 7 October 2014.  Estimates will be submitted to SST as comments on this post.  24 hours from time of posting for this sub-part will be allowed. After that time has passed Turcopolier Control will issue a consolidated situation statement based on the inputs and his judgement.

- Based on that new situation statement the players will be asked to forceast events for the next month for all the parties portrayed in the game.

In the second turn, Turcopolier/Control will issue a new scenario based on the results of Turn One:

- Based on that revised scenario participants will be asked to forecast additional play for the parties to the game for two additional months.

The Third Turn will be a continuation of this process.  The game will continue until it is judged to no longer be fruitul.  Participants are cautioned that fantasy inputs will not be tolerated or accepted, i.e, intervention by God (deus ex machina), beings from outer space or the like.

In any turn following the initial situation assesment, participants may request diplomatic talks with a player or a specific information input. Such information may or may not be available.  In all such exchanges, Turcopolier Control will be the actual interlocutor.

These rules are subject to revision mid-game by Turcopolier Control. The game is proprietary to SST.

Turcopolier Control looks forward to your inputs.

Game play begins now.  pl

A Few Points - 23 September 2014

(This map is somewhat inaccurate.  IS holds a lot more of Anbar Province than is shown as well as a group of towns SOUTH of Baghdad astride the roads to Kuwait)

Points:

- How much local "coalition air" actually participated in last night's well planned attacks in Syria?  Which targets did Jordan, Qatar, UAE, Bahrein and Saudi Arabia attack and with what?

- Egypt obviously declined an invitation to participate.  Why?

- France and Britain were absent from the night's festivities.  Why?

- The Syrian government was informed in advance and the Director of Operations (J-3) of the Joint Staff described Syrian air defense radar as "passive," i.e., unresisting, during the operation.  The Children's Crusade (NSC and State staffs) continues to insist that there was no coordination with the SAG.  Well, boys and girls, what occurred is called "de-confliction" among the adults and that is undoubtedly coordination.  Semantic BS does not change reality.  It just makes you look childish.

- The J-3 showed pictures that demonstrated that multi-million dollar air weapons can put a missile or bomb into a pickle barrel if that is desired, but, to what effect?  His pictures ahowed that very minimal damage had actually been inflicted in the effort to completely avoid civilian casualties.  That is commendable but the truth is that weapons can become so accurate that they are not impressive to the enemy, especially to an enemy like IS who WANT TO DIE.  IMO, IS will simply move on in adapting to the reality of US air attacks that seek to limit damage and casualties.  They have already been doing that by hiding their black flags and dispersing their assets among the civilian population.  Yes, I know, they are using "human shields."  So what?  

- Turkey remains an enormous problem for the Children's Crusade. They declined an invitation to participate in air attacks against IS. They continue to deny the US their air bases, but they are also blocking Turkish Kurds from entering the fight against IS and are complicit in marketing IS oil.

- Christiane Amanpour served up the Assad/IS alliance meme on CNN today.  This is absurd.  IS, Nusra Front and all the other opposition groups are the SAG's deadly enemies.  Buying the enemy's goods across the lines does not make you their ally.  In the American War Between the States, the Union Government authorized the purchase of the Confederacy's cotton across the lines under license from the US Government.  Why?  The North needed the cotton to make uniforms and tents for the Union Army.  Similarly Syria needs that oil to have a functioning economy.  That is quite different from Turkey's role in helping IS market its oil at home and abroad.  Turkey also continues to facilitate the flow of IS people in and out of Syria.

- An IO campaign is being waged against the American people.  The major media are complicit in this.  My sources in the CT community tell me that the Khorassan group is not a new phenomenon at all.  Its existence has been well known.  The targets have been long designated, but now at the moment in which the president's authority to wage unrestricted war is questioned this fear generating meme of imminent attacks in the United States is trundled out so that the media can whip up more war fever.

- The Iraqi Army and its Shia militia allies have been defeated once again.  In Anbar Province west of Baghdad the Iraqi Army lost over a hundred men killed or captured yesterday as well as an army fortified position.  In this process of defeat yet more American made equipment was captured by IS.  An army spokesman whined on in Baghdad about the poor training provided by the US. Pathetic.

If we Americans don't start learning to deal with realities rather than childish dreams we are going to have a very rought time in this war against IS, the Nusra Front, and eventuall against the thoroughly Islamist infiltrated FSA.  Grow up Obama and recognize the simple truth that the SAG is a de facto co-belligerent.  pl 

A Strategy of Hopes and Dreams

 

 

(Sean Connery and what's his name in "The Man Who Would be King.)

Marty and Chuck were up on the Hill today before the Senate "Committee On The Conduct Of The War" (oops, wrong war) to explain the modalities of the US led coalition's coming degradation and then destruction of IS at the hands of the "Coalition of the Feeble Arabs."  Their pleadings matched up well with my post of a few days ago entitled "Too Many Moving Parts, Too Many."

Chuck called him Marty on TV today, so I will also.  Sorry, general.  I thought you were the professional head of the US armed forces but your boss thinks you are "Marty."  I suppose that his squadmates always called him Chuck.

What came through strongly to me in this day's work, was the unreality of the whole thing.  It was largely an expression of various planning goals and hopes assembled by people who still do not understand the peoples of the region, Islam, etc. as well as the fact that those peoples have their own agendas which usually include the desired goal of making fools out of the ifranj, the poor, trusting ifranj.  Someone reminded me recently that when I first briefed at the WH during Desert Storm, one of the leading lights there said to me, "you mean there are two kinds of Islam?"  We have gotten a little past that but not much.

THE PLAN hinges on the willing cooperation of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulflets, Egypt and a fleeting, ephemeral, will of the wisp group called the "Fake Syrian Army" (FSA).  Oops! Make that the "Free Syrian Army."  

Marty said a couple of times today that the situation in Syria is that all the Sunni Arabs are combined together against Assad's handful of Alawis and a few others.

Where did he get that idea?  DIA is a competent organization and they work for him.  With that notion in mind Marty expects that we will be able to recruit 5,400 previously untrained Syrians from refugee camps, send them to a year's military training in Saudi Arabia, organize them and maybe a few more contingents in later cohorts into "brigades" and then send them into Syria where they will defeat both IS and the SAG.

A major flaw in this scheme is the simple truth that many, many Sunni Arabs in Syria adhere to the Syrian government because they are in abject terror of IS, the Nusra Front and similar bands of medieval lunatics.  The Syrian Army is now thought to be around 130,000 in number.  30% of that is Sunni Arabs.  In addition there are 100,000 odd Shabiha pro-government militia.  God knows how many IS there will be by then.  Marty thinks they will have melted away, afeered of US air power.

McCain and his consort, the OLFSC, asked a few good questions today:

- Are we going to send this analog of the "Bay of Pigs Brigade" into combat against all there might be by then in Syria without benefit of air cover and CAS?  The answer seemed to be yes in the expectaion that the people of Cuba, err, Syria will rise to strike down all malefactors. and thus eliminate the need to grasp uncomfortable nettles.

- What happens if the Brigadistas are defeated by the bad people? asked McCain.  Ah, they won't be, seemed to be the answer from Marty.

- But what if they are, pressed the OLFSC?  Numb silence at the thought ensued.

- What would you do if this PLAN failed asked McCain?  Marty replied that all plans are based on assumptions (true) and that if the "Plateau of Sheep" PLAN fails, then his assumption (that it would succeed) would have been proven wrong and there would have to be ANOTHER PLAN.  The atmosphere was then laden with the implication that ANOTHER PLAN would mean that the US would take over the war and fight it with its own forces.

Well, boys and girls, IMO that would mean several more years of COINista baloney in Syria AFTER we conquer the country, and then a long, long occupation by us.

I will not dwell at length on Turkey's feckless abandonment of NATO, Iraq's general fecklessness, Saudi Arabia's untrustworthiness and all the rest.  Maybe we will do that some other time.  pl  

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/transcript-hagel-testifies-to-the-senate-armed-services-committee-on-the-islamic-state/2014/09/16/a4909e26-3dab-11e4-b0ea-8141703bbf6f_story.html

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/110914/World/Region/Whos-who-on-the-IraqSyria-battleground.aspx

Too many moving parts, too many

It is axiomatic in the planning "bidness" that a good plan is as simple as possible.  Any well done plan is set within a "universe" of assumptions concerning the situation in which the plan is viable or even needed.  For that reason there must exist among the planners a clear and valid understanding of the environment in which the plan will be executed.  I do not see that lucidity of thought in the Obama government

The various tasks assigned by a plan must be capable of accomplishment and they must not be mutually interfering, i.e., they must not block each other as they are performed.  The tasks in a plan are colloquially referred to by planners as "moving parts." Another planning axiom holds that the more moving parts there are in a plan, the more probable is failure in execution.  

Obama appears to have a mass of moving parts in his campaign plan:

- The plan assumes that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey can be made into active supporters of an anti-IS "war."  Qatar and Saudi Arabia were the only Wahhabi dominated states until IS proclaimed its caliphal status.  These two countries are deeply sympathetic to IS' goals if not its methods.  Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia were instrumental in the early stages of development of IS as it morphed from AQ Iraq, into the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and then to a final glory as IS.  Do we really think it will be easy to enlist Qatar and Saudi Arabia in this fight?  Do we really think that these deeply Sunni states are going to support continued Shia governance from Baghdad?

 

ME Diary - 12 August 2014

"“We assess that U.S. airstrikes in northern Iraq have slowed ISIL’s operational tempo and temporarily disrupted their advances toward the province of Irbil. However, these strikes are unlikely to affect ISIL’s overall capabilities or its operation in other areas of Iraq and Syria,” Lt. Gen. William Mayville Jr., director of operations for the Joint Staff, told reporters."  Stars and Stripes

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/general-iraq-airstrikes-have-limited-temporary-effect-1.297794

--------------------------

He da man!  If he doesn't think so then what is all the nonsense in the media about this handful of naval air strikes "turning back" the IS hordes?  pl

*********************

"Shortly after the statement was released, Mr. Maliki appeared on state television, sitting around a table with his military commanders, where he delivered the same message.

Mr. Maliki did not back away from the threat of a legal challenge to the nomination of Mr. Abadi, a lawmaker from Mr. Maliki’s own Shiite Islamist Dawa Party.

But any legal challenge — which would be based on Mr. Maliki’s contention that he had a legal right to make the first attempt at forming a new government after the election, because his bloc won the most seats — is considered quixotic, because he has lost much of the support within his own party."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/13/world/middleeast/maliki-seems-to-back-away-from-using-military-force-to-retain-power.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=LedeSum&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

---------------------------

Maliki's statement is directed to the army, not to his police troops.  pl

*********************

" The core of the proposal, which is written in vague terms, calls for the creation of an international mechanism that would better monitor goods entering and exiting Gaza. This mechanism would verify that materials such as iron and cement brought into the Strip not reach Hamas and other terrorist groups, which are thought likely to use them for military purposes."  Times of Israel

-------------------------

One of the problems Israel has in reconstruction is "Who will benefit from the sale of cement to Gaza?"  If Natanyahu wants to be a hard ass about it , then Egypt will sell the cement and israeli businesses will get screwed.  let's see how he deals with that.  pl

Read more: UK, France, Germany propose plan for Gaza reconstruction | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-france-germany-propose-plan-for-gaza-reconstruction/#ixzz3ADrEzQEt   

 

Middle East Diary - 8 August 2014

 

Topics:

IS (an emerging theocratic state)/Iraq (a geographic expression now rather than a country) -

There is an old German military maxim that runs something like "if you have a serious problem, boot it!  Don't pee on it!"  (The Germans here will sort me out on this.)

 My expectation is that having now seen an actual demonstration of the US willingness to use air power to defend the KRG and Irbil the IS military leadership cadre will decide that the best Course of Action (COA) is to occupy Kurdish towns as rapidly as they can.  Expect to see an early maximum effort to take Irbil.  The IS mobile force possesses tanks, APCs and artillery and the ability to use them  IMO their knowledge was hard bought in the Iran-Iraq War and at the Frunze Academy and other Soviet schools.  IMO, ISIS is using military experts from the Old Iraqi Army (the one we disbanded) much as the Bosheviki used former Tsarist officers to organize and run the Red Army until the Blood Purges began in the 30s.  Marhsal Tukhashevski was an eample of such a person.  He was shot in the purge.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tukhachevsky

IMO IS is cleaning up its strategic rear and consolidating its new state.  Some pathetic newsfool bleated today that "we thought ISIS was "over extended."  I suppose that means that the Children's Crusade "experts" in the WH, State Department and media thought that to be the case.  Here at SST (home of the truly hard hearted empaths) we never thought that.

An insurgent force that can; wage propaganda war, has lots of money, a coherent ideology and the ability to organize and operate armored kampfgruppen (battle groups) is a very dangerous opponent.  IMO that force potentially threatens the state system throughout the Sunni Middle East and is a menace that must be halted.

To build an effective local coalition of forces against IS (a concert of the Middle East?) one must stop trying to unseat the existing governments.  They are the only possible basis for such a coalition; Iran, Turkey, whatever government exists in Iraq, Jordan, Syria (Bashar), Egypt, Kuwait (for the basing), Saudi Arabia (for the money and basing), Qatar (for the basing).  Unfortunately, to bring these forces together, Obama's government would have to acknowledge the folly of its college bull session foreign policy over the last six years.  The Children's Crusade that is the Obama Administration in the NSC and State Department, driven by the social disease of utopian social science fantasies unseated Mubarak and thus began the unraveling of the system of nation states in the ME.  In the absence of that system of governments, the underlying traditional loyalties which were suppressed by the nation states have re-emerged with a vengeance. 

Will Obama have sense enough to reverse his policy?  I doubt it. 

-----------------------

Sinjar Mountain and the Yazidis -

These are among the unfortunates of the earth.  There are many such groups in the world.  Dropping water and food to these people is a necessary but utterly inadequate response to their predicament.  What has to be done is for a ground corridor to be opened from the mountain to Turkey through Kurdish held NE Syria.  Nothing else will suffice.  Will that happen? Probably it will not.

-----------------------

Bibi Agonistes or "Why don't they give up?"

IMO it is the Israelis who are trapped by Gaza.  Having attacked Hamas and Company in Gaza on the pretext of supposed Hamas involvement in the murder of three Jewish youths in the Hebron area, Bibi's belief was that he could smash and disassemble the Palsestinian consolidated government through massive and savage application of force on the Gaza population. Instead what he got was continuing (if ineffectual) resistance, the condemnatation of much of the world (including eventually the Obama claque) and now a refusal to accept a more permanent cease fire unless the sige of Gaza is lifted.  Israel's war aims include a demonstration of Palestinian helplessness in order to induce a general acceptance of that helplessness among Palestinians.  That being the case, the Palestinians must be seen to have gained nothing by resistance, but they keep shooting.  Even Carol Costello on CNN can see that, "Oh why don't they give up!  They can't win!"  Her Irish ancestors (?) did not feel that way about the  British throughout their 700 year long struggle.  pl 

 

Gaza Cease Fire Diary - 1 August 2014

Frank Luntz wrote a paper for his fellow Zionists a few years back.  In this paper he specified the kind of language to be used in public utterance for the purpose of eliciting a conditioned response from the American public.  For example Israeli PWs should always be described as having been "kidnapped,"  "abducted," or as being held "hostage."  This trickiness is intended to create a mental image of innocent, indeed childlike IDF soldiers who have been victimized by criminals. This is clever.  Today Martin Fletcher and Blinken from the NSC were all over Morning Joe using this language to describe an IDF soldier taken prisoner.  Blinken demanded that Hamas release this "hostage. " At the same time the point is made that this "abduction" was perpetrated against a group of IDF engineers who were demolishing tunnels inside Gaza DURING THE CEASE FIRE.  Lordy! Lordy!  How dare the Hamasniks do such a thing!  Have they never heard of the rules of Israeli Warfare?

Rule 1 - We do what we please but you must not imitate us, because we are "special" and we want to WIN!! 

Ariel Sharon once infamously conducted a major armored offensive operation during a cease fire that Israel had accepted.  This was during the Battle of the Chinese Farm in 1973.  He defeated the Egyptian Army who stupidly were abiding by the UN sponsored cease fire, and Sharon WON! He won because he was "SPECIAL," but don't you think for a minute you Palestinian terrorists that you can do the same.  NO, NO NO!  You are not "special."  pl

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/israelgaza-conflict-the-secret-report-that-helps-israelis-to-hide-facts-9630765.html 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolution_338

 

Gaza Diary - 17 July 2014

 

JC, an old Army friend  with long experience in Israel and Gaza sent me the following today.

"In that the current situation is unfolding somewhat similar to the 2006 Lebanon "fiasco", I am forwarding a brief summary of the Winograd Commission (edited, but courtesy of Wikipedia). I suspect that we may see a repeat of the final statement. 

According to the Winograd Commission Report, the Second Lebanon War was regarded as a "missed opportunity" and that "Israel initiated a long war, which ended without a defined military victory". The report continued to state that "a semi-military organization of a few thousand men resisted, for a few weeks, the strongest army in the Middle East, which enjoyed full air superiority and size and technology advantages". Furthermore, Hezbollah's rocket attacks continued throughout the war and the IDF did not provide an effective response to it. Following a long period of using standoff firepower and limited ground activities, the IDF launched a large-scale ground offensive close to the UN Security Council's resolution which imposed a cease-fire. "This offensive did not result in military gains and was not completed".

..."The fact Israel went to war before it decided which option to
select and without an exit strategy, all these constituted serious failures of the decision making process.""  JC


As JC observes this situation appears similar.  Once again, Israel has initiated hostilities with an Arab group without any clear idea of the result to be rationally expected or of an "exit plan" from the war itself.  The "strategic thnking' involved appears to have consisted of an unbounded hatred for the Palestinians and a desire to smash and humble them while using the worldwide resources of the Zionist cause to silence criticism.   A humilation like that which resulted from the Second Lebanon War now seems likely to emerge from a "permanent" cease fire unless Israel decides to "double down' in a large scale ground incursion into the Gaza Strip.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-palestinians-israel-idUSKBN0FI04420140717

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-palestinians-israel-britain-idUSKBN0FM1DX20140717

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_Commission

 

"...Gaza Offensive to Intensify as Rockets Fly" Bloomberg

"“We have decided to intensify even further our attacks on Hamas and other terror organizations in Gaza,” Netanyahu said in a text message, as barrages of rockets from Gaza reached as far as 88 miles (142 kilometers) into Israeli territory. “The military is prepared for all options.”

Intelligence and Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz spoke explicitly of a possible ground offensive and reoccupation of Gaza, which Israel evacuated in 2005 after 38 years. Authorities yesterday authorized a call-up of 40,000 reservists, and tanks are massed along the border with Gaza.

Israel’s air force, backed by the navy, ramped up weeks of attacks on Gaza yesterday, with the declared intent of ending the rocket bombardments that began last month. The worst fighting since November 2012 follows the collapse of U.S.-led peace talks in April and the recent killings of Palestinian and Israeli teenagers, further dimming any chance of renewing negotiations soon."  Bloomberg

----------------------------

Sisi and Bibi seem to have similar programs.  Sisi  is in the process of setting back the Islamists' clock in Egypt through the mechanism of extermination.  He is operating on the principle of "Dead Men Don't Bite."  I doubt that he believes that this process will permanently expunge Islamism from Egypt but he thinks, as I do, that this will mightily impede the phenomenon.

Bibi seems intent on exterminating Hamas.  The US under Obama has not been sufficiently docile and obedient.  Kerry actually criticized Israel over the collapse of the peace talks and Obama just does not know his place. 

IMO Israel's internal inhibitions against massive violence against "Arabs" has been suspended through massive media manipulation and anti-Palestinian propaganda.  The only restraining factor on Israeli behavior now is their perennial fear of Jewish casualties.  There are non-Jews in the IDF, Druze mainly, but I suppose that concern extends to them as well.

To miminize IDF casualties, the coming ground invasion will employ maximum firepower.

Caliph Ibrahim is now giving the Shia of Iraq much the same treatment.  He is also reported to have begun the process of rounding up Baathists and veterans of Saddam's army to give them the opoortunity to acknowledge his authority.  This will accelerate the disintegration of his cooperation with the same groups and the tribes. pl

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-09/israel-aims-to-crush-hamas-military-as-cities-under-fire.html

Obama declares the end of history and the childlike nature of American soldiers.

" The days of empire and spheres of influence are over.  Bigger nations must not be allowed to bully the small, or impose their will at the barrel of a gun or with masked men taking over buildings.  And the stroke of a pen can never legitimize the theft of a neighbor’s land.  So we will not accept Russia’s occupation of Crimea or its violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty."  Obama

 *******************

 “I’m never surprised by controversies that are whipped up in Washington, that’s par for the course,” Mr. Obama said Thursday during a Brussels press conference.  Obama

 

 -----------------------

I think it was Francis Fukuyama, the neocon historian who last tried to announce the end of history as humanity has experienced it.  This did not end well for Fukuyama.  History made a "house call" for him and bit him on the ass.

Now we have Obama sternly announcing that " The days of empire and spheres of influence are over."  Say what?  Which planet does he live on?  Obama increasingly seems to be a very sheltered man who was educated on big fat scholarships at the "best" colleges and universities where he acquired the academically popular notion that humans and their societies are evolving toward a higher state in which there  will be a world community governed by rules and "norms" that will protect the weak against the strong.  This idea is the product of the musings of various European social scientists in the 19th Century. Just about all of them were members of some relatively weak group who desired to change the shape of history so that they would be safe from the strong.  The coterie of Obamaites who the president has surrounded himself with all inhabit this "bubble" of belief.

Unfortunately  for them and the rest of us outside the bubble the world has not changed.  Putin treats this bleating with contempt,  Assad is well on his way to emasculating the jihadis in Syria.  Maliki grinds the faces of the Sunni Arabs with impunity.  Al-Sissi will embark next week on his maximal effort to "destroy" the MB and other jihadi fanatics in Egypt.  None of these people give a damn abut what Obama and his bubbleocracy think because they can tell reality from silliness.  They know the difference between chicken salad and chicken shit.

In the world of the realists, it is important to have large numbers of hard, armed, people who will devote themselve to watching over the weak while they sleep lest the wolves come to feast.   In pursuit of the goal of having such guardians. it has been necessary to create bodies of soldiers who will accept the task and will give themselves up for the task.  Such people are often not ideal candidates for membership in Parent Teacher's Associations or the League of Women Voters.  Women they may be, but if so, not likely to fit in well in today's effete American society.

In the case of Bergdahl fils, the president/commander in chief referred to him several time at Brussels as "someone's kid,"  and as a "child."

Well, I am here to tell you Mr. President that if you keep that up, you will have no hard people to watch over weak people.  pl

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/04/remarks-president-obama-25th-anniversary-freedom-day

"Arab spring a plot to divide countries: Egypt's Grand Imam" Ahram on Line

 

""Some Arab spring revolutions brought benefits but others were planned to destroy and divide countries," he said in an interview on Al-Hayat TV channel on Sunday. The West invented "corrupted" theories in order to steal the wealth of the East, El-Tayib added. "The East has not met the level of West, the gap is widening between them," he said, adding that there was a conspiracy to keep the East weak. "The West presented the clash of civilizations theory in order to provoke a clash with Islamic civilization." "There are non-Western nations with old civilizations that are capable of leading the world in a more reasonable way than the West," El-Tayib said. Western civilization is in a state of extreme moral, spiritual and religious poverty, he asserted."  Ahram on Line

----------------------------

I should be grateful for people like this in the Islamic World.  They have always made my job easier by being so predictable.  

This man is the Sheikh or Rector of the Al-Azhar mosque and university in Cairo.  He is arguably the most revered and followed Sunni alim or scholar among the Sunnis.  His only rival would be his opposite number at Tunis.  He argues that the West inspired the Arab Spring for the purpose of weakening and dividing the believers so that they would be weak and available to the West for exploitation.

This would be news to the masses that crowded Maidan al-Tahrir in Cairo and so many other squares across the region.  At the same time there is a modicum of truth in his argument since the NED/R2P types in both the Bush and Obama Administrations spread money and favor across these countries in a vainglorious quest for democratization and Europeanization.  That had a certain effect as it did in Syria and Ukraine.

What al-Tayyib does not want to contemplate is that the 'ulema (scholars) of the Sunnis have generally held Sunni Islam in an iron grip of thought control since the reign of al-mutawakkil,the Abbasid caliph who accepted the consensus of pietists among the 'ulema as the basis of the holy law (sharia).  In Sunni Islam sharia' is the basis of all life.  In some countries that experienced European colonialism there are also commercail law codes but these are in retreat before the rising tide of sharia' law.

The most depressing thing about this is that Al-Tayyib is firmly fixed in a society that is dominated by a variant of Sunni Islam that still accepts such things as female circumcision and Sisi's proud assertion that he will utterly destroy the MB, al-Tayyib's rivals (and Sisi's).

Perhaps the Egyptian monarchy was not such a bad thing.  There was a functioning parliament then.  Imams were kept "in line."  There were real political parties and such odd things as constitutional rights.

pl 

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/101044/Egypt/Politics-/Arab-spring-a-plot-to-divide-countries-Egypts-Gran.aspx

Egypt sentences 529 to death.

"The mass sentencing underscored the severity of an ongoing campaign by Egypt’s military-backed leaders to silence opposition here, eight months after a military coup ousted Morsi, the country’s first democratically elected leader. It was unclear what evidence prosecutors presented to support Monday’s ruling, which came after only two court sessions. A defense attorney in the case said that the defense was never given access to the evidence and that none of the defendants — or even their attorneys — were allowed in court for the verdict."  Washpost

-------------------------

 Impressive.  Presumably these people belonged to the MB  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/egypt-sentences-529-to-death/2014/03/24/a4f95692-6992-461e-aaf1-9bc84908a429_story.html

"Egypt’s Elections" By Richard Sale

  
   Islam is on the march in the Middle East. This is indisputable. For the past few years, in every Mideast election, the Islamic parties have won: in the Gaza Strip in 2006, in Iraq and Tunisia in 2010. In 2011, they won again in Turkey, Morocco, and Egypt where, the first parliamentary elections since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, Islamist parties have confirmed an overwhelming victory.

     The new preponderance of Islamic political power in the region poses serious and genuine threats to U.S. interests. A former veteran U.S. intelligence source who lived in Cairo for years, told me that America’s main worry had centered on the possibility that Egypt at some point would experience an Islamic landslide in which the Islamics secured a majority and who would then gradually leveraged its legislative authority to divest the military of its traditional power and outlaw political opponents. If that occurred, he feared that Egypt could start linking up with similar groups in Tunisia, Syrian, Libya and Yemen which would be catastrophic.

    When the Muslim Brotherhood came to power, its efforts were directed to controlling Egypt by outlawing its opposition and imposing a very strict version of Islam on what basically a secular country. This they did until they were booted from power by the Egyptian military who, in turn, outlawed the Brotherhood. It was an example of circular despotism, but at least the military was secular.  Just recently, Egypt’s military scored a significant victory in the latest election aimed at setting up a new constitution, and the attempts by American pundits who claim that the triumph of strongman General Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi was due to manipulations, intimidations, and bullying ignore the popular popularity of the military among the Egyptian mass.  It is true that the election results were deeply skewed by the fact many of the Salafist parties abstained from it, mainly on the grounds that democracy – government by men -- is a blasphemy in Islam where men are supposed to be governed only by God.

Egypt likes its army.

"The military-backed government that took over from Mursi in July has billed the two-day referendum, which is to pave the way for presidential and parliamentary elections, as a crucial step toward stability. Mursi backers denounce it as an attempt to legitimize what they see as a military coup against Egypt’s first freely elected civilian leader and are boycotting it. Violence marred the balloting early on, with clashes killing three people, state-run Middle East News Agency reported. Health Ministry officials in Cairo couldn’t be reached for confirmation. Security forces, including more than 160,000 soldiers, were stationed around the country after violence flared in the run-up to the referendum. Authorities blamed some of the unrest on the Muslim Brotherhood that fielded Mursi for office, declaring it a terrorist group, a charge it denies. Egypt’s generals may interpret a strong backing of the charter as an endorsement of Mursi’s overthrow and the political process that followed. The man who led the ouster, Defense Minister Abdelfatah al-Seesi, hasn’t ruled out running in presidential elections due later this year."  Businessweek

------------------------------

 As I have said before in this space, it is comical to watch American TV anchors question reporters on the ground in Cairo concerning the sentiment of the Egyptian masses with regard to the army backed government that replaced MB rule.  The anchors are sure that the masses must be hostile to the military's rule and they question the reporters in the field with the obvious intention of eliciting reponses that will confirm the expected narrative.

They seem befuddled when the most they can tease out of reporters is an admission that there still exists a sizable minority in the population who back the Salafists including the MB in their desire to create a sharia law state in Egypt.

The truth is that most Egyptians want a continuation of the long tradition of a semi-westernized, mildly Islamic culture in Egypt.  That culture extends back in history to the Muhammad Ali dynasty and the middle of the 19th Century.  The khedival government in Egypt at that time was an extension of the Ottoman Empire.  The Ottoman government of that time followed a path called the "tanzimaat" (reorganization).  That path led in the direction of the West.  It did not reach the West but it led in that direction.  Egypt followed much the same path and a society developed in Egypt that was a hybrid of Western and Islamic values.  In that system it was possible for reasonable lives to be had by the great majority in spite of the general poverty brought on by an ever growing population.

Governments came and went.  Political systems changed over time.  Khedival Egypt was replaced by a sultanate and then monarchy that tolerated some degree of parliamentary function.  That government was followed by military rule for more than half a century.  Naguib, was followed by Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak.  Mubarak's resignation was accomplished by a wide coalition of largely urban political groups who seem to have assumed that elections would produce a civilian government satisfactory to the groups that had made the revolution a success.  That was certainly the expectation in the United States in liberal political circles as well as among the ever hopeful neocons and the R2P posse.

What had been missed (largely because of wide spread belief in the "progress" of mankind) was the continuing existence of a large rural population who thought that the culture of the cities was corrupt and deeply sinful.  The existence of this politically malleable mass inspired the MB and other salafist groups to enter the electoral process.  Once in power, Mursi and company proceeded to modify the Egyptian state to fit their conception of God's will reflected on earth. 

Women, Christians, homosexuals, the westernized secular elites, ordinary Egyptians in the cities, all these groups came to understand that if the Mursi government was allowed to continue in its drive to Islamize all  aspects of Egyptian life then Egypt would become yet another open air prison camp.  Seeing the level of discontent the army acted. 

The same Americans who have believed that nothing is more important than elections still believe that to be true.  The lead editorial of the Washington Post today reflects the pathos of that attitude. 

Most Egyptians do not accept that view of human affairs.  pl  

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-01-13/egypt-votes-on-constitution-as-military-leaders-seek-endorsement

Muslim Brotherhood named as terrorist group

"Egypt increased pressure on the Muslim Brotherhood on Thursday, detaining at least 38 of its supporters on suspicion of belonging to a terrorist organization the day after it was declared one by the government, security officials said. General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the army chief who led the overthrow of Islamist President Mohamed Mursi in July, said the country would be "steadfast" in the face of terrorism, after a small bomb went off in Cairo, wounding five people. The government declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group on Wednesday in response to a suicide attack a day earlier that killed 16 people in the Nile Delta, accusing the group of carrying out the bombing. The Brotherhood, which claims up to 1 million members, condemned the attack. The move gives the authorities wider scope to crack down on the movement that propelled Mursi to the presidency 18 months ago but has been driven underground since the army toppled him."  Reuters

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Many people want to say that you can't suppress political movements successfully.  When they say that, they are wrong.  The MB is finished in Egypt for at least a generation.  Their bold faced attemot to write a new constitution that would have made Egypt a sharia law state was their undoing.  Everyone except the R2P ladies understood the full import of what the MB was trying to do and all the while smiling and smiling and smiling.  Westernized Egyptians, women generally, the military itself, the Israelis, and everyone in Egypt who stood to be the ruled and not the ruling in MB Ecypt came to understand what their lives would be like if Mursi succeeded.

It is amusing to listen to the lefties in the US TV media whine to reporters in Cairo about "the elections."  The reporters then try to explain that elections that yield bad government are not to be accepted and this result was not accepted by the affected people in Egypt.

The Sisi crowd should now put the Nur Party on the same list.  pl       

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/26/us-egypt-explosion-idUSBRE9BP03K20131226

 

 

 

Turkey's Growing Isolation

"Fadi Hakura from the London think-tank Chatham House told CNN that Saturday's events were "a vivid illustration of Turkey's growing isolation in the Middle East." "There's a perception gaining ground in the region that the Turkish government is allied to the Muslim Brotherhood and that its foreign policy is defined by sectarian priorities," Hakura said. "Turkey has tense relations with Israel, the neighboring countries -- Iran, Syria and Iraq -- the majority of the Gulf Arab states and Morocco, Algeria, Egypt and Jordan," he said. Hakura said U.S. President Barack Obama also was deeply unhappy with Turkish foreign policy in the region. "Since early August there has been no telephone contact between the U.S. President and Turkish Prime Minister and that's a reflection in part with Turkey's deepening isolation in the Middle East and also frustration in Ankara at Obama's reluctance to get involved in the conflict in Syria," he said."  CNN

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Erdogan is upset because the cause of his Islamist brothers has been dealt a crippling blow in Egypt.  He is truly a "wolf in sheep's clothing," and the cloth is now threadbare enough to see the Middle Ages underneath his business suit.

His policy in Syria has been one of complete alignment with the Islamist rebels.  He has alienated the new government in Egypt.  He has weakened the Turkish Army for the purpose of strengthening his hold on power.  Turkey's long standing friendly relationship with Israel is at an end.

Turkey's cities look modern?  Yes, but there are many modern buildings in Saudi Arabia as well.  pl    

 

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/23/world/meast/egypt-turkey-diplomacy/

Israel Expresses Dismay at Cutback of U.S. Aid to Egypt by Isabel Kershner

"... one Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the delicate diplomacy involved, warned that the implications of punitive cuts in Egypt’s aid could go far beyond the issue of Israeli-Egyptian relations. The United States is playing with fire, he said. “You cannot disassemble the peace treaty and take out this part or that part,” the official said. “But there are other elements in this conundrum. This is not just about Israel. This is about America’s standing in the Arab world.” Noting that military aid is not just about tank shipments but also a sign of presence and commitment, he added: “If America is seen to be turning its back on Egypt, an old ally, how will it be seen? People will see it as the United States dropping a friend.” Asked about American aid to Egypt, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said he would speak only “in general terms,” but made it clear that any withdrawal of aid was a concern."  Kershner in the NY Times

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Well, there you have it.  It's our money but the Israelis are quite willing to tell us what, where and when we can give it away and/or spend it.  pl

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/10/world/middleeast/israel-us-egypt.html?_r=0

 

 

 

"Egypt court bans Muslim Brotherhood 'activities'" BBC

"A court in Egypt has banned "all activities" by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Cairo administrative court said its ruling applied to the Islamist group, its non-governmental organisation and "any organisation derived from it". It also ordered the interim government to seize the Brotherhood's funds and form a panel to administer its frozen assets until any appeal had been heard. "  BBC

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 The picture with Mursi's face on it bears has a label with the words, "na'am lil-shar'ia."  This means "Yes to legitimacy."  The yellow sign bears the four finger sign of the Islamic resistance to the present government and the words, "kulna raabi'a"  This is evidently a reference to the name of the mosque at which there were many MB demonstrators killed.

The MB?  They will be suppressed for a long time.

pl

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24208933

Egypt’s Tragedy by Richard Sale

 
I think Egypt’s tragedy is liable to be repeated if the United States attempts to spread democracy through the Third World as David said. In Egypt, idealist rebels, its liberals, its students and leftists think that whatever happens they are going to prevail, and they believe they are going to be Egypt's future. I disagree. Participants in social media such as Twitter, Facebook, and so forth, may chatter away about “change,” but too often popular idealism is the prisoner of the moment, and can hardly be a basis for governing. Leaderless and loosely organized, the liberals in Egypt have showed that they are unable to discipline themselves, to effectively organize, to create a governing coalition, or to lay any sound foundations of a new political order. 

It is an unfortunate truth that the methods used by a dictator to administer his power may last long after the dictator himself has fallen.

Egypt and other Middle Eastern nations have no tradition of democracy or constitutional government, and it is right to ask, what shape are the governments of the Middle East likely to take or what is the future shape of any other Mideast countries?  Is the liberal hope realistic? 

It pays to recall that France in 1789 had the world’s most democratic constitution in history. It had no bureaucracy, and no centralized administrative authority. The King was a figurehead, the ministers almost powerless.  The work of administration fell on elected directories and municipalities. King Louis XVI protested, quite rightly, that the government couldn’t control a country the size of France.  He saw that authority was so divided and restricted that the government no longer had any effective control over the country and freedom was so elaborately, almost neurotically protected that it was smothered under the burden of ceaseless elections. And that was what happened. It would be well if Egypt’s liberals avoided the same disaster. They have more than forty-five political parties contending for predominance, a recipe for confusion. 

One must also ask whether Islam, with its ideal of justice for the needy and a good life for all, is impervious to the secular economic forces that for years sustained Mubarak in power. That the ultraorthodox Islamists like Al-Nour wield great power there is no doubt. Its reach and its resources make it an impressive example of the worship of collective human power.  But once again we must think of past history.

The urge to set up forms of “self-government” has had a broad attraction for many nations of the world, but one has to remember that some of the most brutal tyrannies have been based on the word democratic. Think of Hitler gaining power in the 1933 elections. The rule of law is a more potent factor in achieving democracy than free elections, in my view. 

Yes, the initial protests of the leftists, the idealistic youth, and the liberals in Tahir Square burst forth like a flood unleashed by a thundercloud. But protesting wrongs is not equivalent to governing a country equitably. I believe that the most astute US analysts would like to see in Egypt and other Mideast countries is a political system that is in accord with their ages-old tribal character. Commentators in the United States seem to picture a future system there as a day of sunlight and little white flowers, a place as sweet as a sugar cookie. One doubts that this will prove true. The power of Islam, backed by centuries of submission to its religious power, may instill a common will in the bulk of the people who are likely to set up a government that defies our wishes. Remember to that Islam, it is God that governs. Government by men in a sin. 

From the first I feared the insurgent character of the Muslim Brotherhood, its ability to secure an Islamic government in which the Islamics secure a majority and then gradually leverage their legislative authority to divest the military of its traditional power and start to outlaw political opponents. Thankfully,  this has failed, thanks to the rebuff by Egypt’s military. But I still fear that if such a thing occurs, Tunisia or Iraq could start linking with similar groups in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, which would be catastrophic. 

As I have said before, it is a bitter fact that Truth is not the same for everyone in all places.  Nothing is suitable for all people everywhere. What pleases an inhabitant of Paris is hardly going to please an inhabitant of Beijing. You have to ask of any people, what suits them, what inspires them, what animates them, what gives them energy, and what ideas make their existence meaningful and valuable. The Greeks proceeded in one direction, the Chinese and the Hebrews in another, the Romans in another. Each group must strive to realize what lies uniquely in its bones, in its essential features, its particular circumstances and peculiarities of character that act to create customs, traditions, and initiate talents. 

In any case, gaining that common will is an arduous achievement, and one suspects that the features of any new government in Egypt are likely to be unfamiliar or even hostile to an ordinary American like myself.  The question must be, can we live with it? And once established, what new threats to America does it pose, how can they be managed?

 

Spengler on American ineptitude in Egypt

"America's whimsical attitude towards Egypt is not a blunder but rather a catastrophic institutional failure. President Obama has surrounded himself with a camarilla, with Susan Rice as National Security Advisor, flanked by Valerie Jarrett, the Iranian-born public housing millionaire. Compared to Obama's team, Zbigniew Brzezinski was an intellectual colossus at Jimmy Carter's NSC. These are amateurs, and it is anyone's guess what they will do from one day to the next. By default, Republican policy is defined by Senator John McCain, whom the head of Egypt's ruling National Salvation Party dismissed as a "senile old man" after the senator's last visit to Cairo. McCain's belief in Egyptian democracy is echoed by a few high-profile Republican pundits, for example, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Robert Kagan, and Max Boot. Most of the Republican foreign policy community disagrees."  Spengler

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SWMBO often says that we were lucky to have lived and served in the period of America's greatness and indeed grandeur.  She is correct.

The United States, IMO. has declined politically, institutionally, morally, and ethically with a rapidity that is hard to find mirrored in history.  It is now a national security state obsessed and afflicted with the malignancy of Orwellian "virtue" over issues of political correctness that have little to do with real life in a hostile world.  So few Americans are willing to serve in the armed forces that "thank you for your servce" has become even more of a mockery than it was before 9/11.  The suicide rate is high in the armed forces?  Consider that many of those who have not served in combat are the people who kill themselves.  Consider that over half of the reported sexual assaults in the armed forces are of men on men.  What sort of children are you raising?

The attempt to export American practice in political life is so absurd and self destructive as to merit the ridicule that Spengler heaps upon it.

"A Tale Told by an Idiot."  pl

http://atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-190813.html

Eastern Mediterranean Roundup - 19 August 2013

- Fighting continues in the Sinai Peninsula with Israeli and Egyptian forces cooperating more than they ever have before.   At least 24 egyptian policemen have died in a jihadi ambush at Rafa on the Israeli border.  The Israelis tell me that they are very hopeful that the US will not cut off military aid to Egypt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23751954

- Husni Mubarak may soon be released from prison.  He is a lucky man, Mursi might well have had him hanged on general principles.  Now....  The shoe is on the other foot.  BTW, the search for Mubarak's "billions" of stolen money never got anywhere.  They found a few hundred million.  In the ME that is chicken feed.  Egyptians tell me that Amre Mousa is the preferred candidate of the military for an eventual presidential election.  He is a non-entity with a long history.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/19/mubarak-to-be-released-from-jail-this-week-report-says/

- UN chemical weapons investigators began work in Syria today.  They are to determine if CW was used and by whom.  They are at work in spite of US obstructionism in New York.  IMO the result of their work may be the next big embarassment for Obama.  There is a reason why the Syrian government is so willing to have the UN investigate this matter.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/19/world/meast/syria-civil-war/

- The US media in its eagerness to support the naive poliicy of the Obama Administrations and the Congress continues to exagerate the importance of the 1.3 billion $ that we give Egypt in the form of credits we do not expect to have repayed.  Egypt has reacted to this talk.  Their government has now stated that it, too, will examine its relations with states that have sought to "interfere" with Egypt's internal affairs.  The Gulf will easily replace moneys lost in disappeared US aid.  The highly complex equipment provided by the US to Egypt in the expectation that Egypt could be a worthwhile internation "player" is not needed by Egypt.  The material exceeds Egypt's needs and capacity for absorption.  For the Egyptians the possession of such equipment is a matter of national pride.  Egyptian forces are really internal security forces.  It does not matter if they want to admit that or not.  The kind of equipment they really need is widely available on international markets.  At the same time, to prevent sales of spare parts for equipment now in Egyptian hands, the US Government would have to take executive or legislative action to prevent private sales of spare parts to the Egyptian government.  Would they really want to do that to companies like Lockheed-Martin and General Dynamics?  Personnel training?  Don't kid yourself, there are lots of places for very fine training.  India comes to mind.   And lastly, a rupture of relations would cost the US automatic overflight clearance priviliages and queueing privileges in the canal. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/19/world/middleeast/leaving-military-aid-intact-us-takes-steps-to-halt-economic-help-to-egypt.html?_r=0

- And then there is the Kerryesque farce in Palestine where the Israelis are playing us for suckers once again and the Palestinians are enduring yet another humiliation.  The Israelis have no intention of creating a viable Palestinian state as a rival.  All else is tactics and playing nice with the ignorant Americans.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/sham-peace-talks-resume/5345995

Ah, me.   pl