Sic Semper Tyrannis

Is Donald Trump Going to Do the Syria Backflip? by Publius Tacitus

Trump’s new saber rattling against Syria, Russia and Iran goes beyond pure irony and will certainly fuel rumors embraced by critics that he is becoming senile. When Trump was running for the Presidency, he sang a radically different tune:

Donald Trump accused his Republican presidential rivals on Friday night of wanting to "start World War III over Syria," and suggested that the United States should instead let Russia deal with the problem. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/09/25/donald-trump-let-russia-fight-the-islamic-state-in-syria/?utm_term=.a3579167cd97) 25 September 2015

If Vladimir Putin wants to launch airstrikes inside Syria, that's no problem for Donald Trump, who said Wednesday that he believes Russia's military moves in Syria are targeting ISIS and that the United States shouldn't interfere. (https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/donald-trump-syria-don-lemon/index.html) 1 October 2015

Addressing Russia’s intervention in the Syrian conflict, which has so far disproportionately targeted rebel-held areas with no Isis presence, Trump expressed confidence that Vladimir Putin would eventually target the Islamic State. “He’s going to want to bomb Isis because he doesn’t want Isis going into Russia and so he’s going to want to bomb Isis,” Trump said of the Russian president. “Vladimir Putin is going to want to really go after Isis, and if he doesn’t it’ll be a big shock to everybody.” However, Trump did note the complexity of the situation on the ground in Syria, pointing out in reference to Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad that Putin “is an Assad person” and “the United States doesn’t like Assad”. He went on to condemn the Obama administration for “backing people who they don’t know who they are”, and to warn that rebels backed by the United States “could be Isis”. (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/oct/13/donald-trump-foreign-policy-doctrine-nation-building) 13 October 2015.

That was then. Now Trump is chest thumping and trash talking Syria and Russia like the recently deceased John McCain. He now appears ready to lead the NeoCon Conga line into an escalation of the war in Syria:

From Policy to Action - TTG

Stated policy means nothing without some kind of implementation. This Washington Post article describes how CENTCOM is already implementing the stated Syria policy on the ground in al Tanf. In my opinion, we stand a good chance of deconflicting ourselves into a hot war. God help us all.     

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U.S. Marines conducted a live-fire aerial assault exercise in southern Syria on Friday designed to warn Russian and other military forces to stay away from an American base there. The exercise, involving a company-size unit, came amid rising U.S.-Russia tensions across the Syrian battlespace. The Trump administration has warned both Russia and the Syrian government against a planned offensive in Idlib province in northwest Syria, the largest remaining pocket of rebel fighters who have tried, and failed, over the past seven years to oust President Bashar al-Assad. In support of the Idlib operation, Russia has deployed a significant naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean, with weaponry capable of reaching across Syria.

The Marine exercise took place near the US garrison at al Tanf, along the Syrian-Iraqi border near Jordan, around which the Americans have long declared a 35-mile deconfliction zone off-limits to others. It followed a Russian notification, and U.S. rejection, of a plan to enter the zone to pursue “terrorists.”

“The United States does not seek to fight the Russians, the government of Syria or any groups that may be providing support to Syria in the Syrian civil war,” Lt. Col. Earl Brown, a U.S. Central Command spokesman, said in a statement. “However, the United States will not hesitate to use necessary and proportionate force to defend U.S., coalition or partner forces.” The garrison has served as a launchpad for U.S. anti-Islamic State operations and a U.S. Special Operations Forces training facility for Syrian fighters aiding in that effort. The zone also lies astride a major transport line between Tehran and Damascus, and control of the area has long been a goal of the Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian allies.

Increasingly frequent skirmishes have occurred near and inside the zone, including one Monday in which several Iranian and Iranian-backed fighters were reportedly killed in an airstrike. A U.S. military spokesman said the base had “received fire from unknown forces” but “did not fire back.” Israel, which has conducted strikes against Iranian forces in Syria, made no direct comment on the Monday incident.

Russia has repeatedly charged that the United States is harboring Islamic State forces inside the zone, something the Americans have vehemently denied while suggesting that Russia and its allies in Syria are looking for an excuse to attack the area.

“Coalition partners are in the Al Tanf deconfliction zone for the fight to destroy ISIS,” Brown said. “Any claim that the U.S. is harboring or assisting ISIS is grossly inaccurate.” ISIS is an acronym for the Islamic State.

Outlining an unusual series of events that led up to the exercise, Brown said that Russia, using a communication line dedicated to avoiding accidental conflict between U.S. and Russian forces in Syria, had notified U.S. Lt. Gen. Paul E. Funk II, the commander of coalition forces in Iraq and Syria, that “they intended to enter the Al Tanf deconfliction zone to pursue terrorists.” That was followed Thursday, Brown said, by an unprecedented written note to Funk from his Russian counterpart “that they would make precision strikes.”

“The U.S. does not require any assistance in our efforts to destroy ISIS in the Al Tanf deconfliction zone,” Brown said, “and we advised the Russians to remain clear.” Russia and other pro-government forces, he said, were expected to abide by deconfliction agreements.  (WaPo)

TTG

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-forces-conduct-live-fire-exercise-in-syrian-desert-in-warning-to-russia/2018/09/07/

Just say no... to war - TTG

“The Russian Defense Ministry stated earlier that the US-led coalition was "building up a group of cruise missile carriers in the Middle East region," in preparation for a possible strike, while French President Emmanuel Macron declared that France was also ready to launch new strikes against Syria in case of a chemical weapons attack there.

The US military is laying the groundwork to close the airspace over northern Syria, according to the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet. US military freighters are reported to have transported radar systems to the city of Kobanî, controlled by the Kurdish militia, and the US military base in Al-Shaddadah in southern al-Hasakah.

The outlet claims that the US plans to use these complexes to establish a no-fly zone over the territory between Manbij in Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor.

Washington hasn’t commented on the report yet.”  (SPUTNIK)

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This has the potential of being a deadly and costly conflict or a military embarrassment. The Russian and US Navies are putting a lot of warships in a shallow and confined eastern Mediterranean all within the reach of each other’s land-based air assets. I doubt either side intends to target the other’s ships, but in an environment of intense missile interdiction efforts and radio electronic combat, things can get out of hand very quickly. That would be a deadly and costly conflict… for both sides.

If a naval conflict is avoided, the possibility of another largely ineffective cruise missile strike at the hands of the combined Syrian and Russian air defense complex is a real possibility. Remember, it was the Syrian air defense alone that successfully defended against past strikes. Russia has reinforced its systems in country and no doubt reinforced the Syrian air defense system as well. But even an ineffective strike could lead to Russian deaths. That could easily lead to an escalation and, again, a deadly and costly conflict… for both sides. 

As I stated in a comment earlier today, “All Trump has to do is say no rather than respond militarily to any provocation coming out of Idlib. Call Mattis and Haspel into the Oval Office and say no. Tweet whatever you want, but say no.” Will he fall for another fake gas attack? I haven’t seen any media discussions of the possibility of any impending gas attack being a false flag provocation. That's bad, but Trump can write all that off as fake news. What is Trump’s Fox News cabinet discussing? I have no cable so I have no idea. Are they warning of a possible false flag attack or are they talking up the dangers of a Syrian barrel bomb gas attack on the hapless citizens of Idlib? The later would definitely be bad news for us all. What Fox is saying is critical at this point. 

Even if the jihadis execute a gas attack provocation, the DoD cannot execute a strike without Presidential authorization or a Congressional declaration of war, which won’t happen… ever. Trump had no problem climbing down from his bellicose rants against the North Korean nuclear threat. Perhaps he knows what’s at stake and can resist the waving of the bloody shirt by the media and even his own administration over a jihadi gas attack. It is in his hands. Just say no, Mr. President.

TTG

https://sputniknews.com/military/201808281067544527-syria-us-no-fly-zone/

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/08/26/572261/Syria-Kurd-Kobani

https://www.globalresearch.ca/is-the-us-and-its-allies-preparing-to-bomb-syria-towards-a-no-fly-zone-in-northern-syria/5651914 

The White Helmets are saddling up for another ride

 

(Defensive these days)

"The United States has warned Russia that it would be ready to strike Syria again if President Bashar Assad and his government use chemical weapons in the country, the Bloomberg news agency said on Friday citing own sources.

According to the agency’s sources, the warning was conveyed by National Security Adviser John Bolton to his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, during their Thursday’s meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. 

The agency says that Washington “has information that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may use chemical weapons as he seeks to recapture one of the country’s last rebel-held areas” – in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib.

During the talks with Patrushev, Bolton said the United States would respond with stronger military action that it has used in Syria in the past – in 2017 and 2018."  Bloomberg and AMN

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"Militants of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), aided by British intelligence, are preparing to stage a chemical attack in northern Syria that will be used as a pretext for a new missile strike by the U.S., the UK and France on facilities of the Damascus government, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov announced on August 25.

“According to the information confirmed simultaneously by several independent sources, the active terrorist grouping Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is plotting a new provocation with the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government forces against civilians in the Idlib province … A special group of terrorists who have been trained by specialists of the UK private military company Olive to handle chemical warfare agents has also arrived in the area of Jisr ash-Shughur,” Konashenkov said, according to the Russian news agency TASS.

Konashenkov revealed that the U.S. is already preparing for the new missile strike. According to the  statment, the US Navy’s destroyer Sullivans with 56 cruise missiles on board arrived in the Persian Gulf several days ago while a B-1B strategic bomber of the US Air Force armed with AGM-158 JASSM air-to-surface missiles was redeployed to the al-Udeid air base in Qatar.

“The actions by Western countries contrary to public statements are aimed at another dramatic escalation of the situation in the Middle East and at disrupting the peace process on the territory of Syria,” Konashenkov warned.

Earlier this week, the U.S., the UK and Franc released a joint statement, in which they condemned the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Damascus government. The three countries vowed to “respond appropriately to any further use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime.”"  SF & Russian MoD

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 Bolton, Pompeo and the neocons have made it clear that they at least have not abandoned Regime Change in Syria as their objective. Whether or not Mattis and Votel are fully on board with this is unclear to me.  They may well be playing some separate game of their own involving a madcap desire to maintain a US dominated zone in Syria east of the Euphrates River.  Trump's hand is not visible in this for me.  Power appears to have fractured in Washington with regard to ME policy

The Regime Changers seem to believe they will have another bite at the apple during the Idlib liberation campaign when a White Helmet style "gas attack" can be staged and then used to obtain Trump's acquiescence in a sizable set of attacks against Syrian forces this time as well as facilities.

The Israelis seem to be out of the game on this one having made a deal with Russia and Syria over stability on the Golan front line. 

Well, good for them.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-warns-russia-of-new-strike-on-syria-if-assad-uses-chemical-weapons-bloomberg/

https://southfront.org/u-s-prepares-new-strikes-on-government-facilities-in-syria-russian-military/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-accuses-us-britain-france-of-preparing-to-carry-out-new-strikes-against-syrian-govt/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-jihadists-preparing-chemical-weapons-provocation-in-idlib-russian-mod/

A comment on the Turkey/Idlib situation by FB

"This is what I thought when I heard Bonkers Bolton warning about chem weapons in Idlib...the Idlib terrorists are Turkey's wards, but I had assumed after the smooth running of the southern liberation, where Israel was a stakeholder that the Syria endgame had been quietly ironed out between Trump and Putin...maybe not...?

I think the so-called 'chemical attacks' are a ruse of the deep state...ie the CIA, MI6 et al, through their proxies on the ground the white helmets...the corrupt media jump on these false flags and whip up a HUGE furor...of course many among the media scumbags are deep state assets, as has long been public knowledge, since at least the Church Hearings...

So even if Trump and Putin have come to a 'secret' agreement on Syria...it is likely that the deep state is not on board...this means that the same deep state/neocon machinery could well join up with Erdog on blowing up some crisis...that's really the only hand they have left to play, since it seems obvious that the SAA are going to clean up...

Otoh, Erdog needs to be mindful of crossing Putin...he's burning bridges with Trump, the EU and the West in general...Turkey was brought to its knees by Russian sanction.s after the Sukhoi downing in 2015 and some of those measures are still in place...Putin wisely holding those in his pocket until the Turks leave Syria...

I have to think that overall the Idlib liberation is inevitable...but you may be right that we may see some more fireworks if the chemical ruse is pulled again by the white helmets...Even the POTUS has no chance to resist the huge media brouhaha that is whipped up...really shows the power of the deep state and media working together like a smooth running machine... " FB

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An excellent comment and well worth making into a post.  My only quibble would be that I think it is USAID (an arm of the State Department) that is working with UK propaganda organs to maintain the WH.  IMO Trump is not fully in control of this situation and Bonkers Bolton cannot be much help.  Bolton ought to travel with Mike Huckabee in the ME.  Huckabee believes that the Old Testament is history and literally true and written by God Almighty.  They would make splendid traveling companions.  pl

Janissaries will march across northern Syria and Iraq?

 

 "The Turkish military will expand the area of its operations in northern Syria, up to the  Iraqi border, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on August 18.

“The operations of the Turkish army in Jarabulus, Al Bab and Afrin will be carried out in other Syrian regions, up to the Iraqi border. They will also be carried out in [Iraq’s] Sinjar and Makhmur. We will eliminate the terrorist threat coming from the territory of Syria and Iraq. We will not let terrorists to control zones near our southern borders,” the president said at a congress of the Justice and Development Party.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) along with Turkish-backed militant groups are already in control of a large chunk of northern Syria, including the cities of Al-Bab and Afrin. These areas were seized by Ankara under a pretext of combating ISIS and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) – a Kurdish rebel group, which is involved in a long-term standoff against the Turkish governemnt.

On the same time, units of the TAF entered some areas in the province of Idlib in northwestern Syria.

However, the Erdogan government is not going to stop on this. Currently, it’s working to force the US to drop support to the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The core of the SDF is the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Ankara describes the YPG as an affilate of the PKK."  SF

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 Say what?

The US has positioned a small number of troops (advisers, etc.) in the NE and has made noises recently to the effect that the US and the SDF will defend the area that they hold west of the Euphrates River.  Convoys of materiel for the SDF forces have been arriving from Iraq and CENTCOM shows no sign of withdrawing from anywhere in the portion of northern Syria currently held by CENTCOM/SDF. 

At the same time the Turkish Army is deep in northern Iraq and is constructing what look like long term facilities.  Erdogan plans to occupy all of northern Iraq?

pl 

https://southfront.org/erdogan-turkish-military-will-expand-area-of-its-operations-in-syria/

Ditto Colonel Lang by Publius Tacitus

I am the choir shouting Amen! to Colonel Lang's latest missive on the matter of Classification and Clearance. I want to drill down on the Secrecy agreement that John Brennan and I each signed when we joined the CIA. Read it for yourself:

So let's start with some simple facts. 

John Brennan's security clearance is revoked, with a teaser at the end

 

By Robert Willmann

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders walked out to the podium today and, for the first 4 minutes, read a prepared statement in a deadpan voice--

http://www.c-span.org/video/?449848-1/white-house-revokes-cia-director-brennans-security-clearance

Likely written by White House counsel Donald McGahn, the statement, after its declaration that former CIA employee and director John O. Brennan's security clearance was going to be revoked, concluded with a teaser at the end.  Since he has show business experience, Donald Trump is doing this one act at a time.  He says that he is "evaluating" nine other people to decide whether to revoke their security clearances or prevent them from getting one:  James Clapper, James Comey, Michael Hayden, Sally Yates, Susan Rice, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, and Bruce Ohr.

Another name for such evaulation should be former NSA director Keith Alexander, but so far he has ducked beneath the radar.

Concerning this useful and amusing development, I express the following opinion--

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGPNJBZc3oc

Brennan's biography as written at the CIA Internet website shows how he was wired in:  during 1994-1995, he was the agency's intelligence briefer to president Bill Clinton; he was chief of staff to George "Slam Dunk" Tenet from 1999-2001; he was deputy director of the CIA until 2003; he was an assistant to president Obama for homeland security and counterterrorism for four years; and was sworn in as CIA director on 8 March 2013.

A little item of personal interest is in the biographical sketch.  It says that after graduating from Fordham University in 1977, Brennan "later attended the University of Texas at Austin, where in 1980 he earned a master's degree in government with a concentration in Middle Eastern studies". 

While riding my bicycle to the law school and in and around the University of Texas campus at that time at all hours of the day and night, I might have come in close proximity to Mr. Brennan.

It's a small world after all.

 

Idlib offensive preparations

(4th Division "flash")

 "The Syrian Arab Army’s 4th Armored Division has left the Daraa and Sweida provinces for northwest Syria, tonight, a military source told Al-Masdar News.

According to the military source, the 4th Division left southern Syria with a large arsenal of missile launchers and armored vehicles. 

In addition to their equipment, the 4th Division is bringing thousands of soldiers that were previously deployed inside the Damascus Governorate.

The 4th Armored Division will be leading their own attack that is separate from the Tiger Forces.

The Tiger Forces will begin their attack along the Idlib-Hama axis, while the 4th Division is believed to be leading the charge in the Al-Ghaab Plain.

Both the Tiger Forces and 4th Division are two of the Syrian Arab Army’s most successful divisions and their battle experience should play an integral role in the offensive."  AMN

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This is going to be one hell of a rodeo!  As the article suggests there will be secondary attacks from the west out of Lattakia Province and from the Aleppo City area pushing toward the west.  These will be intended to fix the enemy in place while the main attack drives north from Hama Province to Idlib City and then on to the north.

(shoulder "Flash" of the Defense Companies)

The 4th Armored Division is in my opinion the premier major formation of the Syrian government forces, even better than the redoubtable Tiger Forces task force.  The 4th Division was originally created from the Saraya Difaa' (Defense Companies).  The name and shoulder patch were obvious echos of Schutzstaffel  (Waffen SS).  These company sized but numerous  units were raised as an Alawi militia that had government support and were meant to protect the interests of the Alawi community.  There were persistent reports in the US Army Arabic specialist community, perhaps apocryphal, that the Saraya Difaa'  had the benefit of a former Waffen SS Standarten Fuhrer  (colonel equivalent) acting as a mercenary to organize and train these troops when they were created.  His efforts were joined by Soviet Army armored forces and paratroop instructors.

I remember seeing their infantry riding on the outside of their tanks wearing  their special pattern camouflage uniforms and that death's head patch. They certainly looked like historical memory.

Hafez al-Assad's brother Rifaat tried to use these troops in a coup and failed.  In the aftermath the Saraya Difaa' were disestablished as a group but not abolished.  Some units went into the Republican Guard and others ended up in what is now the 4th Armored Division.  In the maelstrom of the civil war they have become a simply outstanding force.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armys-4th-division-heads-to-northwest-syria-for-jisr-al-shughour-offensive/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Companies_(Syria)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_Armoured_Division_(Syria)

God Bless Stephen Cohen by Publius Tacitus

Let me stipulate at the outset that the phrase, "Max Boot," should be consider as a new synonym in the Oxford English Dictionary for the word inane moron or imbecile are other plausible possibilities.

Not since the days of Senator Joseph McCarthy have we witnessed such a bizarre, vicious level of red-baiting and smearing. Max Boot, have you no decency?

You will understand the context of my introductory observations after you view the following video. Max Boot believes that Donald Trump should have threatened (Boot's word, not mine) Vladimir Putin. How does one go about threatening a country with inter-continental nuclear weapons systems that are proven to work?

 

 

Syria Notes - 29 July 2018

IMO the clean up of Quneitra Province is essentially complete.  What is next?

1.  Israel seems content with the SAA's re-occupation of the Golan frontier.  The SAA is operating in the UNDOF DMZ but that does not seem to bother the IDF very much and thus it is clear that there is an understanding between the SSA and IDF that the SAA will withdraw to east of UNDOF lines B & C  when they are finished with the rebels.  The Israels know that the pinprick rocket attacks into the occupied Golan are not the responsibility of the SAA and these will be dealt with by the Syrian side in order to have quiet on that front.

2.  The SAA have learned in the hard school of prolonged combat (and under Russian tutelage) that the way to fight is to organize into mission dictated task forces using the building block organizations contained within "standing" units of the SAA and Republican Guard.  The Germans created this combat doctrine.  They called these task forces kampfgruppen.  They could be anything in size from company to brigade (10 times as big).  The task forces are not intended to be permanent re-organizations since the parent units of the component parts are needed for training and logistics.  In such a system the existing headquarters of divisions and brigades are merely command and control nodes for kampfgruppen once the combat re-organization is made.  The US Army has been set up for this kind of battlefield flexibility. since the early 60s although in peacetime units are not scrambled much except in exercises.  In re Syria, the constant re-organization for combat often leads to errors in perception on the part of foreign observers.  Thus, task groups made up of parts of bigger SAA units and NDF are reported in various places at the same time.  This is quite useful for deception operations.

3.  In just this way elements of specific SAA units are now simultaneously reported as being in Quneitra Province, in northern Hama Province and norther Latakia Province.  The conditions necessary for a campaign of liberation in Idlib Province are rapidly being brought to fruition.  Kampfgruppen made up of parts of the Tiger Forces, Republican Guard, 4th Armored, NDF, etc. are all present in the north resting and re-fitting prior to action.

4.  I expect to see an offensive in the north that will include one or two secondary attacks intended to deceive the rebel "operations room," and fix its forces in opposition to these while  a main attack, probably from the south, waits to push north to Khan Sheikhoon, Idlib and farther north.

5.  The largely Kurdish SDF has now declared its intention to cooperate in this offensive as a preliminary effort leading to liberation of the Kurdish parts of Afrin District from Turkish domination.

6.  What will the Turks do?  IMO they will not do anything much if their "observation posts" are bypassed in the offensive and left to a realization of their uselessness post liberation. A commitment of substantial air defense assets against Turkish air will be necessary to success.  plp 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kampfgruppe

Syria Notes - 25 July 2018

1. The SDF/SNC political arm is opening offices with government consent in several Syrian cities, among them Damascus itself.  The goal in this is to negotiate political reconciliation with the government.  If that happens then just about all of Syria east of the Euphrates River will return to government control.  A lot of Syria's oil and gas reserves are out there.  If the previous pattern is followed the armed forces of the SDF would be integrated into the SAA.  This would be very interesting.  The SDF has a lot of volunteer Kurdish women soldiers who are actual and effective fighters.  How the SAA would integrate them would be interesting to watch.  Effectively, such a reconciliation would re-unite the country except for the Turkish occupied and coveted areas in the north, but, as TTG suggests, Turkish ambitions have an uncertain future in north Syria.  Does Trump know about this political move?  I think he must know and that the "fix" is in" on this with Putin.  What do Mattis and CENTCOM think about this? Does it matter?
2. SAA forces in Quneitra and western Deraa provinces are cleaning up the remaining jihadis and other rebels.  Elements of the Tiger Forces national offensive reserve + 9th Armored and 4th Armored Divisions + a lot of NDF militia are advancing south from the Quneitra City ruins (Israel did that in 1974) with their right flank IN the UNDOF DMZ.  The FSA unicorms have surrendered enough equipment to the SAA in the last couple of weeks to equip an additional armored brigade once the Syrian Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (SEME - my neologism) and their Rooshians work it over.  Hey! We Americans under Obama's policy paid for all that.  At last someone will know what to do with it.  The rebel IS affiliates in the black patch in the map are pretty well screwed.  That area is called the Yarmuk Basin (Hud al Yarmuk- hard "H" - "Wow" - hard "D")  It is agricultural land that slopes down through a few villages to the north bank of the Yarmuk River.  Jordan starts on the south bank.  The SAA and friends are going through this area without any problem,  "like s--t through a goose" as Patton would have said.  Amusingly, "Khalid bin al Walid Brigade" is the moniker of the IS jihadis being overrun in the Yarmuk Basin.  He was the Muslim commander at the decisive defeat of the Byzantines at the Battle of the Yarmuk.  Both Bibi and Putin have said that once the Israelis' former IS allies are exterminated then the SAA must back out of the UNDOF DMZ.  I suppose that will happen.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-july-25-2018-israel-shoots-down-syrian-warplane-supporting-anti-isis-operation/

https://southfront.org/militants-in-quneitra-city-nearby-points-start-surrendering-weapons-to-syrian-army-reports/

America On It's Way to Being Stalin's Soviet Union by Publius Tacitus

Nothing more sickening and offensive than the hypocrisy of a nation claiming to be the pinnacle of democracy and freedom while moving inexorably towards a state that embraces authoritarianism. And no, I do not mean that Donald Trump is the culprit. He is not. He is a weak man masquerading as a strong man while the BORG aka the Deep State pushes onward with its agenda to quash the spirit of liberty that once infused this great country. He is more a victim than an instigator.

The latest outrage comes in the person of a 29 year old Russian woman, Maria Butina, who was arrested last week:

A 29-year-old Russian woman living in Washington has been arrested and charged with conspiracy to act as an agent of the Russian government while developing ties with American citizens and infiltrating political groups, the US Justice Department said on Monday.

Maria Butina, a student at American University and a founder of the pro-gun rights Russian advocacy organization Right to Bear Arms, is accused of working at the direction of a high-level official who worked for the Russian Central Bank and was recently sanctioned by the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, the Justice Department said in a statement.

Israel accepts Syrian control up to the UNDOF Line

 

"The Israeli military has reportedly drawn its “red lines” for the ongoing fighting between the Syrian government and militants along its northern border, ruling out a direct clash with pro-Assad forces and claiming that they alone must take over the conflict zone.

According to Haaretz, Israeli defense officials said they did not expect a direct confrontation between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Syrian Army in the wake of a pro-government offensive against the al-Nusra Front and Daesh* terrorist groups in southwestern Syria near the border with Israel."  Haarets and AMN

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israel-wants-only-syrian-pro-govt-forces-near-border-haaretz/

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I read this as Israel accepting an SAA advance right up to the UNDOF Line B and in the Quneitra area UNDOF Line C.  pl

What is John Bolton's role in Trump's ME drama?

(editorial)

On a gestalt basis it seems to me from all the bits and pieces of information and rumor that DJT is attempting "The Deal of the Century!" (an episode or two of his soon to be award winning series, "The Greatest President.")

Russian cooperation in this is clearly needed.  Trump is blessedly lacking in ideological fervor.  His Deplorable base is also a bit short on ideology being focused on wages, prices, taxes and other everyday living issues.  Their patriotism expresses itself in devotion to the flag and the anthem and a willingness to serve in the armed forces, something increasingly absent in the "resistance."

Trump has a free hand from his base to negotiate peaceful coexistence with Russia, but he nevertheless must successfully deal with the passion of the neocon wing of the Borg (foreign policy establishment).  They still swoon at the thought of the ongoing renewal of the Cold War.

John Bolton is an arch-neocon, a neocon's neocon.  Trump has sent him to Moscow to arrange an agenda, date and location for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.  IMO this is a stroke of genius.  What it does is put an enemy of good US-Russia relations in charge of arranging the schedule for discussions to improve US-Russia relations.  In LBJ's vulgarism, Bolton is going to be inside the tent peeing out rather than outside peeing in.  Having arranged the meeting, he will be personally invested in its success.  How sweet that is!

Trumps is IMO trying for a grand ME bargain to be achieved with Russian help:

1.  Peace in Syria in the context of abandonment of regime change.  Trump the pragmatist recognizes that the R+6 forces have won the civil war and, therefore he wishes to accept the sunk costs of previous American ineptitude in Syria and to walk away.  US Embassy Amman has signaled to the FSA rebels in SW Syria that they should not expect the US to defend them.  This is a traditional American stab in the back for guerrilla allies but the warning indicates to me that some group in the US Government (probably the CIA) has enough conscience to want to give warning.  As soon as that warning was issued the rate of surrenders to the SAA rose.

2.  The US has thus made it clear that the SAA and Russian forces in Syria have a free hand in the SW and it seems that Israeli air and missile attacks are unlikely against the SW offensive.  This has been insured through a Russian mandate that Hizbullah and IRGC dominated Shia militias stay out of the fight in Deraa and Quneitra Provinces.

3. The Egyptians have been talking to Hamas about their willingness to enter into a hudna (religiously sanctioned truce) with Israel.  Hamas has frequently offered this before.  Such truces are renewable and are often for 10 years.  Kushner's team thinks it has attained Natanyahu's support for this.  The deal would supposedly include; a Gaza-Egyptian industrial zone in the area of Raffa, an airport, a seaport.  In return Hamas would be expected to police the truce from their side of the border.  People on SST who have deep access in Israel doubt the sincerity of apparent Israeli assent, but there is little doubt I think that DJT considers this part of the Grand Bargain he is attempting to forge.  

Nowhere in any of this is anything concerning Iran and I assume that regime change remains the policy.  Nor is there anything about Saudi Arabia and the UAE's mercenary manned war in Yemen.  Ah, well, pilgrims, everything in its time.  pl  

Borg on the Border......... by Fred

Good News Democrats! Trump is really just a liberal in the mold of that great NY liberal FDR. Just look at what FDR did in 1941 and 1942:

"President Franklin Delano Roosevelt declared that the day of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, December 7, 1941, would live in infamy. In February 1942, just two months after Pearl Harbor, President Roosevelt as commander-in-chief, issued Executive Order 9066, which had the effect of relocating all persons of Japanese ancestry, both citizens and aliens, inland, outside of the Pacific military zone. "........." Roosevelt's order affected 117,000 people of Japanese descent, two-thirds of whom were native-born citizens of the United States."

Syria and Turkey Notes - 19 June 2018

 

(editorial)

The US Senate has passed into law a restriction against selling US made equipment to Turkey so long as Turkey persists in its purchase of the Russian S400 SAM system.  The Turkish response as voiced by their Prime Minister and Foreign Minister is basically to tell us to go to hell (paraphrasing).  The Turkish PM has also stated that after their success in jawboning the US over Manbij they intend to move on toward the east to Kobane, Hasakah, Qamishli and parts east in Iraq.   These pronouncements on their part have the flavor of statements from the Ottoman Sultan's throne.   Does anyone seriously doubt that Turkey's intention is to give Syria and Iraq a "haircut" by effectively and probably by annexation eventually moving the border south some distance.  This kind of thing is common in the Islamic World where state boundaries are generally thought of as tentative.  A NATO ally?  What a joke.  I suppose that we cling to NATO as a tool in our crusade against Russia.  The Turks know that and are using the knowledge.

Heather Nauert and Pompeo el-Magnifico have now warned Syria and Russia against an offensive in the SW of SYRIA.  They cite the de-escalation agreement that thr Russians negotiated as though it was a cease-fire protecting the jihadis and FSA rebels who the Israelis treasure so much as a buffer to the east of the forts on the Occupied Syrian Golan Heights (Hauran).  The threats posed by Nauert and Pompeus Maximus are clear.  They are saying that if the SAA attacks to recover its territory the US will attack them in defense of Israel.

At the same time CNN has been told that the air attacks on Syrian and Iraqi forces SE of Al-Bukamal were conducted by Israel itself and not the "Coalition."  Pilgrims, these targets are in the far SE corner of Syria where the main road crosses into Iraq and then reaches Iran by various roads in Iraq.  the Israelis are clearly terrified of the logistic and trade implications of that road.  pl 

 https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-pm-says-kobane-hasakah-qamishli-are-next-targets-after-manbij/

https://southfront.org/us-senate-to-ban-weapon-supplies-to-turkey-over-its-s-400-deal-with-russia-turkey-responds/

ttps://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-blocking-f-35-sale-wont-stop-turkey-from-acquiring-s-400-systems-pm/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-state-dept-reveals-details-of-pompeo-lavrov-conversation-on-syria/

 https://southfront.org/june-18-strike-on-syrian-forces-near-al-bukamal-was-carried-out-by-israel-us-official/

 

Baaak Baaak barack! Baaak Baaak barack! The Chickens are coming, the Chickens are coming - home to Roost. by Fred

Looks like the big guy is gett'n ready to help America

Given all the nuggets the IG Report is serving up there will be plenty to go around. With all the work he's about to do he'll be worn out worse than Peter and Lisa and Tashina before the week is out. I sure hope the left's sacred chickens favorite agents of investigative integrity aren't destined for the same fate as the sacred chickens of Publius Claudius Pulcher. I can hear you now: "Fred I get that try at humor, but as the old saying goes "Where's the beef"."

DOJ IG, Horowitz, Fails to Admit What He Proves by Publius Tacitus

The final product of the Department of Justice Inspector General, Michael Horowitz, is a study in schizophrenia. On the one hand Horowitz reports that there was no EVIDENCE that political bias directly affected the investigation:

There were clearly tensions and disagreements in a number of important areas between Midyear agents and prosecutors. However, we did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that improper considerations, including political bias, directly affected the specific investigative decisions we reviewed in Chapter Five, or that the justifications offered for these decisions were pretextual.

Nonetheless, these messages cast a cloud over the FBI’s handling of the Midyear investigation and the investigation’s credibility. But our review did not find evidence to connect the political views expressed in these messages to the specific investigative decisions that we reviewed; rather, consistent with the analytic approach described above, we found that these specific decisions were the result of discretionary judgments made during the course of an investigation by the Midyear agents and prosecutors and that these judgment calls were not unreasonable. (see p. iii)

But then there is the multiple examples of bias exhibited by key FBI investigators throughout the report. The anti-Trump prejudice exhibited by Peter Strzok is undeniable: 

The Turks are playing us ...

 

"Turkey has offered Russia to jointly produce advanced S-500 air defense systems, President Recep Tayyip said on June 13 in an interview with broadcaster 24 TV.

“Russia has given us a loan for the S-400 on very reasonable terms. In the second and third stages, we will proceed to joint production. Maybe we will co-produce S-500,” Erdogan said also making critical remarks towards the NATO allies over their unwillingness to sell arms to Turkey or jointly produce them.

“I have contacted President Putin with a proposal about the joint production of the S-500.”

However, Erdogan provided no info about a Russian response on the S-500 joint production proposal.

In December 2017, Ankara officially signed a $2.5 billion agreement with Moscow on the delivery of S-400 air defense systems. Turkey will be the first NATO member country to acquire the system. According to data from the Turkish media, the country will buy two batteries of S-400 missiles which will be manned by Turkish military personnel."  SF

*****

"Turkey’s Chief of General Staff General Hulusi Akar and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Curtis Scaparotti agreed via telephone on Wednesday to force the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) to leave Manbij by July. "  SF

------------

BOHICA!  BOHICA!  BOHICA! 

Sultan Tayyip and his janissaries have enjoyed "playing" the US like the proverbial fiddle.  This is a common occurrence in the ME where the naivete of many Americans encourages it.  I watched Ali Abdullah Salih tell his ambassador in Moscow on the telephone to use Soviet grants of credits to South Yemen for weapons to extract more of the same for North Yemen.  He had just been briefed on the PDRY grants by a State Department briefer come to Sanaa to wean him from Soviet dependency.  It was only when the conversation ended that he remembered that I understood his chat.  I was the only American present who had enough Arabic to do so.  He smiled and asked when Antar (me) could go hunting again.

If the Kurds do not now make peace with Damascus, they are fools.  pl  

 https://southfront.org/erdogan-offers-russia-to-jointly-produce-advanced-s-500-air-defense-systems/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-turkey-agree-to-force-ypg-leave-manbij-in-july/

Rob Reiner's Shock and Awe--Not So Much by Publius Tacitus

Last night (Monday the 11th) at the Newseum in Washington, DC, Rob Reiner screened his new film, Shock and Awe. Hard to believe that 15 years have passed since George W. Bush launched an unnecessary war in Iraq. During the prelude to that war, Knight Ridder was a lone voice in the media herd that refused to swallow the propaganda elixir brewed and served by the White House, the Pentagon and the CIA. Specifically, the movie is supposed to tell the story of Editor John Wolcott and his reporters, Warren Strobel and Jonathan Landay, who spent almost two years as pariahs in the journalism community because they reported that there were no facts to back up the claim that Iraq had WMDs. Rob Reiner's new movie (it will hit theaters next month), attempts to tell this story. Sadly, he fails.

I was tempted to title this review, SHOCKINGLY AWFUL. But that would be unfair. The movie is not dreadful. Just really disappointing. A more accurate title would be, BANAL and MEDIOCRE. Although the movie is stocked with a talented cast--Woody Harrelson, James Marsden, Tommy Lee Jones and Rob Reiner--and the actors do a fine job given the material they have to work with, the story is fragmented and superficial. The problem starts with the script. It lacks identity and focus. 

The movie opens with a paraplegic black Army private wheeling himself into a Congressional hearing where he then testifies before a stereotypical congressional committee. It is a few years since Bush went to war in Iraq and the soldier, rather than read his testimony, decides to  ask the committee members a blunt question--why the hell did we go to war in Iraq. Cue the flashback.

It is now September 11, 2001 and we are introduced to reporters Jonathan Landay and Warren Strobel. The Al Qaeda attack on America lit the fuse on an 18 month time bomb that ultimately exploded in Iraq. We still do not know why George W Bush and his band of malevolent neocons decided that Saddam Hussein should be taken down. Maybe some really believed that Saddam and Bin Laden were in cahoots. Perhaps some knew that was just a pretext for getting rid of Saddam as a stepping stone to creating a path for democracy in the Levant. Reiner's movie does not answer this question. 

"Betting the Farm" in SW Syria

 

The Syrian military is preparing to launch their largest offensive of the war next week, as they finalize their plans to kickoff this imperative operation in the provinces of Dara’a and Al-Quneitra.

According to a military source in Damascus, the government offensive will be led by two major forces in the Syrian Arab Army: the Tiger Forces and 4th Division. 

The Tiger Forces are tasked with retaking the southern districts of Dara’a city, while the 4th Division will be split between the Al-Quneitra and Dara’a governorates.

Joining these two divisions will be a large number of soldiers and paramilitary troops that were previously deployed in the Damascus, Al-Sweida, Homs, and Hama governorates.

Below is a list of units participating in this battle:

Syrian Arab Army :

• 4th Division
  • 39th Brigade
  • 40th Brigade
  • 42nd Brigade (Ghiath Forces)
• 5th Armored Division
  • 15th Brigade
• 7th Division
• 9th Division
  • Shock Forces
• 15th Special Forces Division
• 90th Brigade
• Republican Guard
  • 105th Brigade
  • 106th Brigade
• Palestine Liberation Army (Palestinian wing of the Syrian Army)
• Tiger Forces

Paramilitaries:

• National Defense Forces (NDF)
  • Liwaa Suqour Al-Quneitra
  • Fouj Al-Joulan
  • East Qalamoun Division
  • Damascus Division
  • Homs Division
  • Dara’a Division
• Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP)
• Liwaa Al-Quds (Palestinian-Syrian faction from Aleppo)
• Raqqa tribal fighters             AMN

--------------

"Betting the Farm" is an old military saying concerning a situation in which one side in a major war decides to commit so much of its forces to an action that if failure and decimation occurs then the side suffering that will be permanently crippled.

The coming offensive in Daraa and Quneitra governorates (provinces) appears to have all the hallmarks of such an action.  Most of the first rate heavy units of the SAA will be committed  to this effort.  Presumably the SAG intends to crush the rebellion in the SW and drive its line of control up to within sight of the Israeli forts on the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. 

What will Israel's reaction to this be?  How effective will Syrian air defenses be against a reaction?  What will Russia's reaction be to Israeli attacks on its ally's forces?  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/complete-list-of-syrian-forces-taking-part-in-southern-syria-offensive/

No friends but the mountains… or BOHICA - TTG

A long sought thaw in US-Turkish relations appears within reach following yesterday's talks in Washington between Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Answering reporters’ questions in the Turkish city of Antalya today, an upbeat Cavusoglu elaborated on an agreement reached between the NATO allies on Manbij, a mainly Arab town in northern Syria. Manbij has been an abiding source of friction because of Kurdish influence over its administration. Cavusoglu termed the deal “an opportunity to put our damaged relations back on track.”

Cavusoglu said provisions of the plan would likely be fulfilled in less than six months but that the real test of the United States’ commitment to it rested in its implementation. The terms include a full withdrawal of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from the city and assurances they will be shorn of any weapons provided to them by the US-led coalition for the fight against the Islamic State (IS). Likewise, the civilian authorities are expected to be purged of pro-YPG elements, clearing the path for Turkish forces to monitor the area jointly with their US partners. Cavusoglu stressed the accord was “beyond a legal document" and "a road map that will affect relations between [our] two countries.”  (Al-Monitor)

**********************

Thus begins the latest chapter in our long history of first using and then abandoning the Kurds. This is a dismal history extending back for decades. 

In the 70s, with backing and encouragement from Nixon, Kissinger and the Shah, the Kurds rose up against Saddam Hussein. After a few years, we tired of this. Saddam and the Shah reached an accommodation and the Kurds were left high and dry. When Barzani appealed to the US for assistance, Kissinger reminded him that “covert action should not be confused with missionary work.”

After the First Gulf War, we actively encouraged the Shia in the south and the Kurds in the north to rise up against Saddam. When they did just that, we became frightened by the possible consequences of those rebellions. We lost heart and abandoned those we encouraged to rebel to their fate at the hands of the Republican Guard.

The Kurds are not blameless in this woeful history. The various Kurdish factions have betrayed each other and made bad decisions repeatedly over the years. It’s a sad history. 

In this latest iteration, Washington and Ankara have agreed to remove all YPG/YPJ forces out of Manbij and eventually establish joint US-Turkish patrols in the region. In Washington’s defense, we have never been thrilled by the YPG decision to cross the Euphrates and liberate Manbij. We knew this would drive Ankara insane and never supported this longstanding Rojava objective. However, the YPG has fought our war against IS with skill, courage and sacrifice. In exchange we have made them the bane of both Ankara and Damascus. The conditions for another betrayal of the Kurds are ripe.

In my opinion we were right in coming to the Kurds aid at the siege of Kobani in 2014. We were right to send fifty or so Green Berets to work with the YPG to fight the IS jihadis. We should never have made them our proxy force in our effort to oust Assad. We should have encouraged them to seek agreement with Damascus. Everyone from the SF light weapons leader working with a YPG company commander to the CJTFOIR Commander should have encouraged this. But a leopard can’t change his spots and we can’t stop kowtowing to the Neocons and Likudniks.  

But back to the June meeting between Pompeo and Cavusoglu in Washington. The rub in this agreement will be in how each side views the Manbij Military Council (MMC). The MMC is closely allied with the YPG both militarily and politically. It is largely Arab, but sympathetic to Rojava Kurdish causes. CJTFOIR claims there are very few YPG in Manbij and the YPG claims they are withdrawing their advisors in compliance with this agreement. The US and now the French forces will remain along with the MMC, which CJTFOIR calls its ally in the fight against the jihadis. I doubt this is what Cavusoglu had in mind in his talks with Pompeo. When Ankara starts whining about the MMC, will we abandon them as well? What price are we willing to pay, or are we willing to have the Kurds pay, for our continued access to Incirlik Air Base? Maybe the Kurds are asking the same questions. 

**********************

On June 6, Mays al-Kareidi, a spokeswoman for the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), made an official statement announcing that the SDC is ready for a direct negotiations with Damascus.

According to the statement, SDC Co-Chair Ilham Ehmed declared its readiness for negotiations with the Syrian government without any preconditions. The SDC leader even claimed that an intra-Syrian dialogue without “external interference” is the only solution.

To make the situation clear, the SDC is another brand created to hide the YPG/YPD dominance within the SDF. Ilham Ehmed is a Kurd, a senior member of the PYD.

Just a few months ago, an official position of the SDF/SDC was that the group does not cooperate with the Damascus government or Russia. Furthermore, the SDF has repeatedly accused the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance of cooperating with ISIS and carrying out aggressive acts against the “democratic northern Syria” controlled by the SDF. It looks that this strategy may have been re-shaped a little bit.  (SouthFront)

**********************

A bright spot in this situation is that the Kurds and their Arab allies in the Syrian Democratic Council may be coming to the realization that their best interest is served in seeking an accommodation with Damascus. Perhaps they are finally aware of the continuing pattern of betrayal/abandonment in US-Kurdish relations. My guess is that the Russian Reconciliation Center will actively encourage both this realization and an eventual Kurdish reconciliation with Damascus.

TTG

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/us-turkey-reconciliation-pompeo.html

https://thedefensepost.com/2018/06/05/manbij-ypg-us-turkey/

https://southfront.org/ypg-announces-withdrawal-from-manbij-turkey-says-kurdish-forces-to-surrender-us-supplied-weapons/

https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/06/282967.htm

https://southfront.org/manbij-consequences-ypg-political-leadership-says-its-ready-to-negotiate-with-damascus/

Syria Notes - 26 May 2018

 

"“As a guarantor of this de-escalation area with Russia and Jordan, the United States will take firm and appropriate measures in response to Assad regime violations,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement late on Friday.

A war monitor, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, reported on Wednesday that Syrian government forces fresh from their victory this week against an Islamic State pocket in south Damascus were moving into the southern province of Deraa. 

Syrian state-run media have reported that government aircraft have dropped leaflets on rebel-held areas in Deraa urging fighters to disarm.

The U.S. warning comes weeks after a similar attack on a de-escalation zone in northeastern Syria held by U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. U.S. ground and air forces repelled the more than four-hour attack, killing perhaps as many as 300 pro-Assad militia members, many of them Russian mercenaries. 

Backed by Russian warplanes, ground forces from Iran and allied militia, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have helped Assad drive rebels from Syria’s biggest cities, putting him in an unassailable military position."  Reuters

-----------

The position is so unassailable that the SAA is releasing from service soldiers who have served from 2010.  Now, that is confidence.

As we have written here, the SAA is preparing to liberate yet more SYRIAN territory, territory in the SW of the country.  This makes the Israelis nervous and so they have caused their  American puppets to warn Syria against eliminating jihadi and FSA held pockets near the Jordanian border and the Israeli occupied Golan Heights.

Is this for real?  Are Pompeo Maximus and Mattis, the Marine Monk, really going to commit US forces to battle against a sovereign state that is attempting to regain control of its own land?  Really?

There are scattered reports that US air has recently attacked SAA forces out in eastern Homs Province.  That does not seem "confirmed" to me, but perhaps it is true and the decision to fight Syrian forces has already been made.  pl  

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa/us-warns-syria-of-firm-measures-for-ceasefire-violations-idUSKCN1IR03V

Syria Notes - 25 May 2018

 1.  In the NW the Turkish Army has violated the Astana Agreement's terms by sending a column into Latakia Province (as opposed to Idlib Province) to establish another of their fortified company sized Observation Posts.  This OP is in the Jabal al-Akrad area west of Jisr al-Shugur where the main road approaches the low ground to the east.  In the SW of Idlib Province the Turks are building yet another OP.  IMO they are playing a long game believing that they can retain possession of the Afrin District of Aleppo Province and that Trump will allow them to push the SDF Kurds back to east of the Euphrates and out of Manbij.  Idlib Province is still on the menu as well.  These were all former Ottoman lands.

2.  In the far SW of Syria, the government is massing its forces for an offensive in the next few weeks which will aim to clear and regain all the ground up to the UNDOF line in the Golan Heights and the Israeli fortifications thereon.  Whether or not they have the strength to do that remains to be seen.  The troop list for this large operation includes among others; some TF task teams, 4th Armored Division and Palestinian Liwa al-Quds (Jerusalem Brigade).  The presence of this last unit will undoubtedly upset the Israelis.

3.  In the NW suburbs of Aleppo City a medium sized operation is to be conducted shortly to clear the section of the Aleppo-Gaziantep, Turkey highway that remains in rebel hands.  Rebels have been firing into Aleppo City from there and are blocking the highway.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-turkish-military-convoy-illegally-enters-northern-latakia-violates-astana-agreement/

https://southfront.org/russia-and-syrian-army-send-final-warning-to-militants-in-several-key-towns-in-daraa/

SIGAR Report May -2018

This SIGAR report makes it crystal clear that the US lost its "hat, ass and overcoat" in Afghanistan.   We should wise up and go home resolved never, never to listen to the siren song of the COIN fantasy.  pl 

https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/lessonslearned/SIGAR-18-48-LL.pdf

Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency Presents "Om kriget kommer" -- by J

 

 

"Om kriget kommer" -- "If War Comes", was a pamphlet published and distributed to every household of Sweden beginning in 1943.   The pamphlet published by the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces Office. It dealt with crisis, most notably Nuclear War. With the end of the Cold War the publication was deemed outdated and the last edition ending in 1991. ..........

Until Now. 

Remember a while back where I talked about that Russian TV Broadcaster Vesti had a short segment that dealt with Nuclear War and preparation of the Russian civilian population. This was all made possible by NATO's actions of moving armaments and weapons close to the Russian border. Some of a tactical nuclear variety. These NATO actions made Russia nervous as it would make anybody. The Russians went into defense mode big time, and haven't waited around until NATO launches Tactical Nukes their way. Moscow has learned the hard lessons of over 30 million Russian dead, thanks to Nazi Germany's invasion of Russia, aka WWII, aka The Great Patriotic War. Moscow intends that there not be a repeat of such carnage heaped upon Russia ever again. Ever! 

Russia's defense mode has made those nations whose borders are with (and close proximity to) Russia, very nervous. Sweden is bordered by Finland and Norway; Finland borders Russia, Norway, and Sweden; Norway borders Russia, Finland, and Sweden. What we have transpiring, is the domino effect. NATO starts it, Russia reacts to it, Nations in close proximity to Russia get real nervous. 

NATO is using the crutch that Russia annexed Crimea as their 'excuse' to build right on the Russian border area, a no-notice first strike capability. That is why there were ABM's put in Poland, etc. by the NATO milieu. 

Now back to the main point...  "Om kriget kommer," the Swedish prepare for war pamphlet is now once again in production, with a few updates, but relatively the same. Sweden's civil defense agency has also prepared videos on YouTube showing how to prepare your home's grocery pantries stocking of food items. 

Russia's Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and his childhood friends used to chase rats with a stick, until a cornered rat turned on Vladimir and charged him. Vladimir always remembered that life lesson from that experience, "Don't corner Russia". Also another life lesson that Vladimir learned on the streets of Leningrad, if a fight is coming and no way out of it, strike first. Putin intends to protect Russia and its citizenry at all costs, Russia remembers the many times that it's neighbors tried to invade and and loot and subjugate Russia, and were driven back. 

I ask the Swedes why they don't band together with the other European nations that border Russia, to tell NATO that their intention to wage war with Russia, should be abandoned before it reaches the point of no return. Europeans won't be able to live in nuclear rubble, They have not prepared their nations to live underground.  Russia on the other hand has been preparing to go to ground if and when that time happens.

Swedish Civil Defense website 

Om krisen eller kriget kommer brochure 

J 

Framing the Trump Campaign as Lackeys of Russia by Publius Tacitus

There are still many unanswered questions, but the evidence that now is part of the public record removes any doubt that British and US Intelligence services collaborated in a devious and fabricated scheme to portray the Trump campaign as intent on collaborating with Russia. The evidence was planted and cleverly fabricated. It was done through highly classified intelligence channels, which created a paper trail and provided prima facie "evidence" that individuals with tenuous ties to the Trump campaign where seeking meetings with Russian officials. What was not reported, however, was the fact that the original impetus for those reporting on those communications originated with an individual who appears to be an MI-6 intelligence asset. His name is Joseph Mifsud and I believe that evidence ultimately will establish that he was directed to contact and then feed incriminating information to George Papadopoulos. That information became the foundation of creating a counter intelligence investigation of Donald Trump and his campaign.

First a word about Joseph Mifsud. He is currently missing. But the public record on him strongly suggests that he was working as an intelligence asset of the United Kingdom's MI-6. Elizabeth Vos at Disobedient Media provides an excellent review of Mifsud and his links to British intel (her article appears to have been taken down, but it is solid and I saved a copy):

Syrians and Israelis are shooting at each other - TTG

A long time reporter out of Syria has sent out a series of tweets over the last six hours describing an Israeli missile attack on the Damascus area. What is unique about this attack is that the SAA is not only engaging the attacking missiles, but is firing missiles and artillery into Israeli positions in the Golan Heights. All this while Netanyahu is watching a parade in Moscow. Now that’s chutzpah. 

********************************

35 minutes ago Israel launched only one missile towards Syria from over the occupied Golan Heights and it was downed by the AD systems 30 Km south of Damascus.  The missile was heading towards Damascus International Airport.

Update 

The Israeli war planes are flying again over Golan Heights

New attack is expected. The Israeli backed terrorists are targeting SAA positions in Al Quneitra with mortar shells from the UN strip next to the borders. Until now three shells landed on Al Ba’ath city near the town of Khan Arnabeh.

Update

Three more mortar shells landed in the same area. Now the SAA are suspecting that Israeli itself is launching Tamuz (Spike) missiles at the area. Sirens are going off all over the Golan heights. Syrian AD systems are engaging targets over the north Daraa and Al Qunityra  countrysides. SAA responded to the Israeli shells on Al Quneitra by striking the Israeli forward outpost on Al Shaykh mountain north east of the Golan Heights with heavy artillery shells. Syrian jets can be heard clearly over Damascus right now. At this moment the situation in Al Qunityra and in the Golan Heights is calm, but it can heat up at any moment again.

Update 1

Israel re-targeted the same positions in Khan Arnabeh in Al Qunityra 

Update 2 

SAA re-targeted the forward Israeli positions with heavy MRLSs, explosions and sirens can be heard coming out from Golan Heights.

Update 3

Syrian AD systems are engaging objects over south Damascus now.

Update 4 

Until now no successful air strikes occurred in Damascus.

Update 5 

Israel retargeted SAA positions in Khan Arnabeh in Al Quneitra with tank shells and guided missiles.

Update 6 

SAA responded with heavy MRLSs missiles on the Israeli forward ELINT positions and the militia crossing points into Syria. No one responded to the Israeli attacks tonight but the SAA. It wasn’t Iran or any other side only the SAA and no one but the SAA. But as always Israel will lie and lie and lie more.

Update 7 

A new round of SAA missiles salvo into Israel and Syrian AD systems are launching missiles into western Lebanon.

Update 8 

Israel is preparing to launch a massive air strikes on every SAA AD system and communication system in south east Syria. SAA is preparing for worse and a large escalation.

Update 9

The situation is still like this. Israel is shelling the SAA positions in Al Quneitra and the SAA responds against the Israeli positions in Golan Heights with MRLSs. At the moment little or no aerial activity of the Israeli jets over Lebanon. Note : Any news regarding any Israeli strike on the SAA 10th Division in Qatana are completely false. The Division contains Russian forces there.

Update 10

The mutual shelling between Israel and the SAA has stopped for now at least. Syrian Air Defense Forces downed eight hostile UAVs west of Damascus most of them were suicide drones, sent against the AD systems.

Update 11

More hostile missiles are being engaged over Damascus and its international airport.

Update 12

Most likely SAA launched several ballistic missiles into Israel. One Israeli missile managed to hit Mazzeh AB Damascus. No reports about Damascus International Airport.

Update 13

Israel managed to hit the SAA 4th Division west of Damascus. New strikes on the Republic Guards command in Qasiun Damascus and the research center in Jomrayah. Reports about strikes on Homs. 

Update 14

Until now very successful downing rate for the SyrianAD over Damascus.

********************************

The reporter, @WaelAlRussi, describes himself as “Syrian, supporting Syrian Arab Army & Russia against terrorism, I have a lot to learn before being called an expert, I only care about the truth, food and wine.” I formatted and cleaned up his tweets for readability.

As my old friend would say, “The shit’s on, good buddy.”

TTG 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-military-fires-missiles-into-occupied-golan-heights-for-first-time-in-decades/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-massive-confrontation-breaks-out-between-israeli-and-syrian-forces-near-occupied-golan-heights/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/developing-rebels-take-advantage-of-israeli-attack-to-launch-offensive-against-syrian-army/

 

Gina Haspel Will Cruise to Confirmation by Publius Tacitus

I do not know Gina Haspel. Although we were at the CIA at the same time. She just lasted longer than me. Some of my former colleagues refer to her as "Bloody Gina" for her role in the so-called Enhanced Interrogation program. What most of the world fails to understand about this period is that the CIA had zero experience with "interrogation" and found itself starting from ground zero in the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks. The CIA operators, i.e., those men and women who operate overseas trying to recruit foreigners to spy for us, are trained in the art of recruitment. This is akin to picking up a woman in a bar and convincing her to have sex with you. It is not rape. It should not be forced nor coerced. 

Gina went through the same training I did at the Farm and experienced the "Resistance to Interrogation" course (but we trained at different times). This particular training was offered as part of the paramilitary course and was designed to prepare CIA overseas operators for the possibility that they might be taken hostage or captured. The course included a field exercise where we were taken hostage and subjected to methods of the euphemistically described "Enhanced Interrogation" procedures. There was no waterboarding but we were forced to stand in place for 48 hours, deprived of sleep, subjected to noise bombardment, shoved into claustrophobically small boxes and deprived of food and drink. None of this was later described as "effective" techniques for getting people to talk. In fact, the instructors generally conceded that such practices were counterproductive.

US and Israeli shipments to the Syrian rebels.

 

"On May 2, the Syrian Military Intelligence detected and seized a weapon shipment, which was on its way from southern Syria to the besieged militants in the northern Homs countryside, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

The shipment included dozens of US-made M72 LAW anti-tank rockets, dozens of mortar and RPG rounds, a Soviet-made Konkurs Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) and a large amount of ammunition for 12,7, 14,5 and 23mm machineguns."  SF

"A second shipment containing Israel-made medicine and medical supplies was seized by the Syrian Military Intelligence in the Damascus desert. The SANA said that the second shipment had also been on its way to the besieged militants in the Eastern Homs countryside."  SF

---------------

It seems likely that these shipments originated  at the US post at Al-Tanf having been brought to that place through Jordan and with the knowledge of that government.  The presence of Syrian Government forces on the Euphrates River would seem to block shipments from the US controlled area east of the river. It seems unlikely that either shipment was made by infiltration from the Golan Heights.  That would be a very hard thing to do.

It is unclear from this piece if the destinations for this materiel were the Rastan Pocket just north of Homs City or the Big Sandy pocket south of the line Palmyra-Deir al Zor.

The Rastan Pocket is rapidly being reduced by negotiation and threat of Tiger Force attention.  The M5 motorway to Aleppo is being re-opened even as I write.  This pocket IS NOT occupied by IS. 

On the other hand, if the shipments or parts of them were going to the Big Sandy that would be revelatory because all the hostiles in that one ARE IS.  Some are the survivors of the government offensive that relieved Deir al-Zor and the Euphrates west bank and others are the result of busing after surrender in western Syria.

The US insists that it does not support IS, but if there are  shipments from Al-Tanf to the Big Sandy this claim would be markedly weakened.  pl  

https://southfront.org/syrian-intelligence-sizes-weapons-and-israeli-medicine-shipment-heading-to-northern-homs-photos/

"The Truth about Oil and the Iraq War, 15 Years Later" Commentary by The Virginian

(article by Gary Vogler)

'The oil agenda I discovered and experienced was to supply Iraq oil to Israel. The players were the neoconservatives in the Bush Administration, their favorite Iraqi – Dr Ahmed Chalabi and the Israeli government. One of the motives was because Israel was paying a huge premium for its oil imports and this premium had just started in the late1990s. The agenda called for the reopening of the old Kirkuk to Haifa pipeline and its significant expansion. When this pipeline plan became unattainable in the 2nd half of 2003 then Chalabi took other actions to get inexpensive Iraqi oil to Israel."  Vogler

See: http://universitypressblog.dept.ku.edu/uncategorized/1395/

**********

The author is a good man. However, I suggest he gives too much credit to the intellectual capacity of the Neocons and their Israeli counterparts - they are not that smart, but certainly willing to place personal gain above the national interest. Some involved may have seen oil for Israeli as an intended outcome, but it would have been one of several (poorly thought out) drivers behind the neocon agenda. More broadly the perceived "interests" of Israel would have been more on the agenda, with oil being a subset of that strategic thinking.

Those in the Israeli DMI, like the US IC, with half a clue about Iraqi infrastructure, regional politics much less the O&G industry would have realized early on that any Israeli pipeline links were pipe dreams - not to mention that the Haifa pipeline no longer exists (ceased to many moons ago). The history of smuggled oil (decades old) plus Kurdish supply that has gone to Israel since 2003 underscores the difficulty of taking Iraqi oil to Israel in an overt manner.

That said, the politicos - partnered with the likes of Chalabi - and the money men tried and did create opportunity once the invasion was decided (or just after) for themselves. The willingness of those in the USG to allow this was and remains shameful.  The Virginian

Kafraya and Fou'a are being evacuated. PL

 

"Thousands of pro-government civilians will be evacuated from the besieged towns of al-Fu’ah and Kafriya in Syria’s eastern Idlib under a new agreement between the Damascus government and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported on April 29.

The SANA said that HTS will also release 85 women and children who had been abducted by its fighters from the village of Eshtabraq in western Idlib three years ago during the battle for the town of Jisr al-Shughur.

From its side, the Damascus government will allow all the besieged militants south of Damascus, including the militants in the ISIS-held Yarmouk camp, to withdraw towards Idlib governorate, according to the SANA.

However, several Syrian pro-government activists doubted that ISIS is a part of the agreement, as HTS has never publicly allowed ISIS fighters to enter its areas in Idlib governorate. Due to this, observers suggested that SANA may have referred to hundreds of HTS fighters who control a few blocks in the northern part of the Yarmouk camp."  SF

---------------

 

This is part of the ongoing process of concentrating surrendered jihadis and FSA fighters in a few areas where they can be dealt with on the basis of massed forces and firepower.

These Shia (not Alawi) villages are located just NE of Idlib City in the center of the province of the same name.  They have been besieged by the Sunni jihadis since 2015.  It is my understanding that IRGC Quds force air has been supporting these villagers with ground advisers and supplies.  pl  

https://southfront.org/thousands-of-government-supporters-to-be-evacuated-from-al-fuah-and-kafriya-in-eastern-idlib/

And the beat rolls on ... Pat Lang

 

Things are going from good to excellent for the R+6:

1.  East Gouta and Douma town are completely in government hands.  OPCW is searching around in Douma for some sign of a chemical attack on 4 April.  They must be getting desperate.  They are under tremendous pressure from FUKUS to produce such evidence.  Almost anything will do.  Perhaps the UKUS IO could switch production to a sound stage in England (Denison Barracks maybe?)  for the next occasion when the jihadis and FSA unicorns need a FUKUS missile attack to bail them out.

2.  The Damascus South pocket is being dissected by the Republican Guard, 9th Armored Division, 4th Armored Division and various Palestinian units.   The brave rebels are evidently not willing to DIP and as usual are surrendering to R+6 and then to be green bused to the Homs Desert Pocket (south of a line Palmyra-Deir al-Zor) or to Idlib to await the final butchery. I suppose that is cleverer than just Killing them in Place (KIP).  IMO (oft stated) jihadis should not be accorded the protections given to prisoners of war, but raisons d'etat clearly govern. 

(Shilka)

3.  In the Qalamoun East mountains north of  Damascus, the rebels surrendered rather quickly to R+6 and are busy making their peace with the government through the mediation of Russian Military Police.  As stated in the piece cited below these former rebels handed over 38 main battle tanks (MBT), some ZSU-23-4 (Shilka) and assorted other armored fighting vehicles almost all of which are "runners" that will quickly be employed in coming operations.  The Shilka is a murderously effective weapon against infantry, but a hit from an MBT will turn it into a torch.

4.  The situation in the Damascus South Pocket will so quickly be resolved in the government's favor that the fabled Tiger Forces armored task force is being transported north to spearhead a clean up of the Rastan Pocket north of Homs City.  Th is astride the M-5 highway leading to the southern boundary of Idlib Province.

5.  IMO, all this will lead to a maximum effort in the not far distant future in which the R-6 recovers Idlib Province for the government with a main effort from the south and a supporting attack from the west involving the Syrian Marines with objective Jisr al-Shugour.  IMO the Turkish Army outposts in Idlib Province will simply be bypassed and ignored.  IMO the operation's objective will be to occupy a line from Aleppo City west to the Turkish border in Hatay Province.

What the Israelis might do in the far SW of Syria is unclear.  Russian deliveries of export models of the S-300 SAM system are nearing.  What will Israel do about that?  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tank-you-very-much-syrian-army-to-use-armor-handed-over-by-east-qalamoun-rebels-for-north-homs-offensive/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/map-update-syrian-army-squeezes-isis-pocket-in-south-damascus-from-three-directions-amid-unrelenting-assault/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZSU-23-4

Neocon Jack Keane wants a permanent US presence in Syria

 

"Keane retired from military service in 2003. He now works as a national security analyst for Fox News. He has served an advisory role in the management of the U.S. occupation of Iraq, as a member of the Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee. In January 2007, Keane and scholar Frederick W. Kagan released a policy paper, entitled "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq",^[7] through the American Enterprise Institute that called for bringing security by putting around 30,000 additional American troops there for a period of at least 18 months. In part convinced by this paper, President George W. Bush ordered on January 10, 2007, the deployment of 21,500 additional troops to Iraq, most of whom would be deployed to Baghdad, this deployment has been nicknamed the 2007 "surge".    wiki on Keane

--------------

I watched this man hold forth this morning on Varney and Company a business and politics show hosted by Stuart Varney a fervently American immigrant from England who apparently never saw a jingo he didn't like.

General Keane is a close associate of the Kagans, Victoria Nuland, Petraeus and the like.  He has consistently pressed in policy circles for aggressive foreign policy ventures including the Iraq "Surge" that helped secure the Baghdad area from Iraqi insurgents.  In fact the security situation markedly improved across Iraq because Petraeus was smart enough to encourage the work that had been done by Green Berets and junior USMC people in encouraging the Sunni Arabs to abandon support of the jihadi guerrillas.

On Varney's show today Keane pushed for a US policy in Syria that would establish a "security zone" in Syria east of the Euphrates and in the Kurdish areas east of Manbij.  He was clear that he believes that this "security zone" should be held indefinitely, in other words, permanently.

He said that such a zone would prevent the western expansion of Iran through northern Iraq and then Syria westward to the Mediterranean thus completing the dreaded Shia Crescent.  The fact that the Iraqi sovereign government might object to such Iranian expansion did not seem to occur to him.  Perhaps he has taken note of the condemnation by that Shia Arab dominated government of the FUKUS missile strikes in Syria.

To help the FUKUS forces hold this enclave indefinitely, he repeated the notion that the Sunni majority countries in the region should contribute armed forces to the Sunni Enclave.  DJT has recently said much the same thing.  This raises the possibility to me that his "thinking" on this matter originates with the arch neocons and their favorite vehicle the Institute for the Study of War, a Kagan operation through and through.  Well, pilgrims, I am here to tell you that the Sunni Arab countries are not going to do that,  Apart from Jordan's small but competent forces, the rest have no armed forces capable of doing anything but oppress civilian populations.  Saudi Arabia's indefensible war against the people of Yemen is a perfect example of the military ineptitude of the Sunni Arab states.  Repeatedly defeated by the Houthis and the rump of the Yemeni Army the Saudi have resorted to employing African and other mercenaries against the Yemenis as well as pursuing a savage campaign of aerial bombing against Yemeni civilians.  Perhaps they were inspired to do this by the courses of study of RSAF officers at the US Air Force "University" at Montgomery, Alabama.  the Strategic Bombing theories of Douhet are still much admired there.

Toward the end of his discourse this morning, Keane, came to the crux of his argument.  He said that a war is coming in which Iran, Hizbullah and the Syrian government will fight Israel and that the US must be in a position in Syria to defend Israel when that happens.  Thus it is revealed that the source of Keane's (and now DJT's) thinking is simply Israel's obsession with the hostility of the Gentile World to include all those Muslims surrounding them.  In other words, Keane's neocon pitch is based on Zionist fear.

Keane several times repeated a line to the effect that no US combat brigades or regiments would be committed to the Sunni Enclave.  To believe this magical thinking is to believe that no real fighting would eventually have to be done.

I have seen a poll today that indicates that 61% of the American people approve of the FUKUS missile strikes against the fictional chemical weapons target set in Syria.  The gullibility involved in that is impressive.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Keane

Are the Russians Correct? by W. Patrick Lang

"The US Government claims that 100% of the 100 plus cruise missiles launched by the coalition it heads reached their targets on Syrian government chemical warfare connected sites.

The Syrian and Russian governments state that 75% of these missiles did not reach their targets.

Who should we believe?

The extreme nature of the US claim should inspire caution. No system functions at 100% efficiency and effectiveness. None. A very senior civilian colleague in DIA once asked me why sophisticated weapons so often malfunction or are otherwise defeated. I told her that it was simply a fact of life that in actual warfare “whatever can go wrong, will go wrong.” She resolutely stated that this should not be. “The manufacturers guarantee that they will work as advertised,” she insisted. “They lie,” I told her. “That’s business.” She was not happy with that answer, but it was the truth. There is no such thing as a perfectly functioning weapon system."  Lang

http://www.unz.com/article/are-the-russians-correct/

The strategy behind the de-escalation zones - TTG

   Location of the four de-escalation zones

The recent advances by the R+6 in Ghouta, Yarmouk, Qalamun and beyond have laid bare the true strategy of the de-escalation zones established by the Astana Accords. They certainly were not meant to establish a new status quo of rebel safe areas guaranteed to torment Damascus for years to come. They are, I contend, a blueprint for ending the armed resistance to Damascus and reestablishing the territorial integrity of Syria west of the Euphrates. The eventual Turkish-Syrian border will remain a question for future resolution, one way or another.

The reduction of the Ghouta pocket, or de-escalation zone 3 as it was referred to at Astana, was a perfect example of the de-escalation strategy, a strategy to limit the death, destruction and suffering to a minimum while still attaining R+6 objectives. It is a strategy carefully planned and executed to avoid attrition warfare. It begins with an offer/ultimatum to the rebels. You can reconcile with Damascus or be bussed to the Idlib area. If you choose Idlib you will leave all heavy weapons and vehicles to the SAA. If you refuse this offer, the R+6 will unleash a massive punch of artillery and air power followed by a violent strike by elite SAA units. This cycle is repeated until the targeted rebels surrender, reconcile or fall in defeat. This strategy saves civilian lives and infrastructure and preserves SAA combat forces.

This is how the Ghouta pocket was reduced, piece by piece. As that battle wound down, pressure was kept on the Yarmouk pocket while the Tiger Force moved to Qalamun. That battle just ended with another victory for the R+6. It appears the SAA captured a battalion worth of older but serviceable main battle tanks (or more) along with much other equipment and ammunition. Damascus has also gained additional forces for their NDF units from reconciled rebels.

With the Qalamun pocket eliminated, the Tiger Force now is reported to be moving to Yarmouk to assist in the reduction of that pocket. Some of the rebels and even some Daesh elements already took the offer for bus tickets to Jarabulus after a savage artillery and air strike followed by a quick, savage advance by the SAA 4th Mechanized Division and the Liwa al-Quds Brigade. It’s just a matter of time that the last of the Daesh holdouts are no more.

 The Qalamun and Daraa pockets  

Further to the south, the Russian Reconciliation Center is negotiating with rebels around Daraa, the southernmost de-escalation zone. The Daraa rebels have largely maintained the ceasefire since the Astana accords established the de-escalation zones. For that reason, the R+6 is confident that many of the fighters can be peeled away from the rebels by reconciliation or offers of bus tickets to Idlib. However, here the rebels still have resupply lines to Jordan and Israel. They are making moves to start an offensive to take Daraa. The jihadis are also attacking the non-Daesh jihadis near Daraa. These variables definitely affect the calculus of the R+6 carrot-stick strategy so effective at Ghouta and Qalamun. I think the R+6 will keep talking at Darra while keeping “kinetic” pressure on the rebels to whittle down what they can while the isolated rebel pocket between Homs and Hama will be the next to be eliminated.    

  The Hama pocket  

The SAA has already started an offensive at Hama. In the last few days the SAA 4th and 11th Divisions (NDF?) struck the northeast corner of this pocket, capturing six towns and inflicting serious casualties on the rebels. The SAA kicked off this offensive after the rebels refused an SAA demand to surrender that area. No elite SAA units are yet involved in the Hama fighting.

The Idlib de-escalation area has not been forgotten. The Russian Aerospace Forces continue to hit the Jisr al-Shugour area. There were rumors that the Tiger Force was moving north after Qalamun to prepare for the eventual offensive to take that area. Perhaps they’ll head there after Yarmouk is cleared. A period of rest and refitting is in order while other SAA forces reduce the Hama pocket. The SAA is not afraid to hit other sectors of the Idlib de-escalation zone. Rebels in al-Latamenah north of Hama broke the ceasefire by attacking nearby SAA positions. In response, the SAA have unleashed daily artillery rocket attacks against these rebels only eight kilometers from a Turkish observation post at Morek (in full accordance with the Astana Accords). What happens to these observation posts once the R+6 starts addressing the Idlib pocket in earnest? Will they willingly withdraw to Afrin? Time will tell.

TTG  

Commenter Delusions

 

I wrote a piece for the Unz Review yesterday.  You can see it over there.  There were over a hundred comments.  Most of them were favorable, but some were just awful and these included words from a few people who have been seen on SST.

The prevailing complaint about me was that I am not an anti-Semite and am just a "toy boy goy" for the The Lobby, someone who fears the Zionists will cut off my access to media money.  This is amusing since I was long ago driven from the public square by AIPAC  black list operations.  I have long opposed the illegal interference of the non-PAC AIPAC in US policy decisions but I will NEVER equate the Zionist project with American Jews as a group.

A further complaint against me is that I supposedly do not acknowledge the control over US foreign policy exercised by the "MIC" and/or a desire to seize the natural resources of sad little countries.  Well, that accusation is valid.  I do not accept either of those propositions.  Military materiel manufacturers respond to competitive government bidding processes.  They do not create such requirements.  If you wish to think they do, then you should push the idea that the manufacturers somehow participate either openly or covertly in the Quadrennial Defense Review where the structure of future defense forces is decided.

As for the seizure of resources notion, show me where.  Show me!  The Philippines? What? Pineapple?  The American Indian?  What?  Buffalo hump and hides?  Beaver pelts?  The land itself?  Yes we took that from the Indian and I am unapologetic about that. It was them or us.  Iraq?  Whoever made money in Iraq, made it from looting US funds, not Iraqi oil.  Syria?  Perhaps you can persuade yourself that the US wants the small amount of oil that Syria owns east of the Euphrates.  If you can do that, you are truly delusional.  The US is sitting on a ocean of oil and gas with yet more for sale in Canada.

One of the more zany commenters suggested that my "closets are full of corpses" (possibly) and my "off shore accounts full of Russian loot." I rather like that one.  My wife comments that I have successfully hidden the Russian money from her.

pl

Real Reporting on Syria by Publius Tacitus

While the vast majority of the media--print and electronic--have been missing in action on the real story about what happened on the ground in Douma, Syria, the upstart, conservative One America News Network showed up. A OANN reporter went to Damascus and actually did some reporting. He found no evidence whatsoever that chemical weapons had been used. Please watch.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lSXwG-901yU" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

 

Trump's Big Flop In Syria by Publius Tacitus

Do not believe a word you have heard from the Pentagon and the White House about the "success" of the cruise missile strikes on Friday last. A fraud is being perpetrated on the American people and the world at large. Frankly, General Mattis and General Dunford have dishonored themselves by going along with this charade.

If you could go to the CAOC (i.e., the Combined Air Operations Center) located at the Al Udeid Air Force Base in Qatar and speak to officers working for CENTCOM, you would hear a mixture of disgust, shock and anger from many over the President's claim of "Mission Accomplished." And I am talking about people who have been supportive of President Trump. But Trump, with the sycophants at the Pentagon and the Joint Staff, has crossed a line into delusional thinking.

(By the way, here's a picture of the CAOC courtesy of the US Air Force Central Command.)

Why the discontent?

An interim post on Syria ... (Editorial) by PL

(Syrian Christian clergy)

1- The case for the Syrian government having illogically attacked with chemicals in Douma remains unproven although the language of certainty is emerging in the MSM.  It should be noted that Senator Angus King (I) of Maine told Jake Tapper today on SOTU that no evidence has yet been presented to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence concerning the gas attack.  King is a member of the committee. 

2- The hundred odd cruise missiles fired into Syria were clearly the result of a compromise Trump decision on options with Mattis arguing for restraint in the absence of more than "social media" evidence of the  attack while the ascendant neocon influence centered around John Bolton argued for fire and brimstone.  Bolton has the political weight of AIPAC and the likes of Adelson behind him as well as the egocentric contempt that Trump has for experts.

3- I have done and/or supervised many Bomb Damage Assessments (BDA).  The damage shown in the three struck facilities seems to me to be about right for the number of missiles that the Russians say got through the air defense.

4- These facilities were undoubtedly empty when struck.

5- It seems unlikely to me that Soviet era Syrian air defense equipment would have had much effect on this flotilla of cruise missiles.  Therefore, if the Russian claim resembles truth, then something else caused the losses.  I am not an air defense expert but it seems to me that some sort of advanced Russian air defense Electronic Counter Measures (ECM) may have been in play. Comments?

6- Heather Nauert, the State Department spokesperson says that Syria will have to confess to its crimes and declare its existing chemical weapons stocks before the US will "allow" Syria to participate in a political settlement of the war.  This will be difficult for Syria to do if there are no chemical stocks and there was no attack.

7.  Nikki Halley, (the sage of Turtle Bay) and VP Mike Pence (a man who believes that Homo Sapiens walked the earth with dinosaurs)  have declared that US troops will not be withdrawn from Syria until US "goals" are reached.

8.  The neocons are back, pilgrims.  pl 

More to come on this. 

Not a bad outcome, but ... (editorial comment) by PL

 

The Melkite Cathedral in Damascus 

Whether or not DJT has a private channel of communication to the Russian leadership remains an open question for me.  Those who love to think of history as an endless series of conspiratorial meetings favor the idea that DJT and VP agreed on the level of damage that would be acceptable given the fury of the gas hysteria of the last week.  There well may be such a link conducted through US Embassy Moscow.  I hope there is such a link.

In any event, Trump obviously chose one of the more inoffensive options offered to him by the JCS and James Mattis.  Was this always going to be the case in a Trumpian display of manipulation of the neocons, the brass and the media?  Or did Mattis successfully wrestle Bolton for control of Trump's decision?  The truth is concealed behind DJT's grin and somewhat obscured  by his low hanging locks. 

These targets were not derived from some wonderful feat of intelligence collection and analysis.  These facilities were in DIA's data base 23 years ago when I left DIA.  On a visit to Syria way back then, I drove around the country with the US military attache to these and a number of other facilities so that I could see them myself for future reference in a crisis.  We gave data on these targets to the Israelis as part of our ongoing cooperation.

So far, so good, but there is a built in future menace in what is being said of this attack program.  It is that an absence of future attacks is contingent on an absence of supposed future chemical attacks.

Therefore it is easy to see that whenever the rebels/jihadis want the government attacked they can stage manage more chemical attacks.

IMO if that occurs there would be an inevitable escalation of targeting until the core combat assets of the R+6 are the targets.  pl

The Russian General Staff Has A Grip On Reality, The Pentagon Sadly Doesn't -- J

 

Memo to OSD Mattis -- When was the last time you picked up your phone and had a real conversation with members of the Russian General Staff?  You might want to try it, it's called truth versus fiction.

The Russian General Staff personnel understand well the meaning of war, their nation suffered the most in the last BIG ONE the one history books called World War 2. 

Memo to "Retd. General" Mattis -- Do you understand how many humans died on the Russian side in the last war called World War 2?  Just under 9 Million Soldiers, these figures don't include the civilian death toll of the Russian populace, we're talking Soldiers (aka  Uniformed Personnel).  Our U.S. lost roughly a 1/2 Million Soldiers (aka Uniformed Personnel).  General Mattis can you please wrap yourself around those figures, PLEASE!   How many human beings need to be sacrificed in the fast approaching UNNECESSARY BIG ONE called WW3?  Can cooler heads prevail, can we step back from the slippery precipice we (U.S. and Russia) are headed to? 

The newspapers and TV networks who promote and propagandize, the politicians who create WAR out of thin air, the bankers who finance, the corporations who make war weaponry don't think of WAR in human terms, in human loss, they think of WAR in ratings, in political, and in financial terms ONLY. 

First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff's Main Operations Department Lieutenant General Viktor Poznikhir told reporters on Wednesday, that the chemical attack on April 7th upon civilians in the town of Douma , were staged and filmed by members of the White Helmet Organization.  A workshop where militants had been loading ammo with poisonous chemicals  were found in underground tunnels he said.  Previously, on March 3rd,  a militant's workshop composed of makeshift ammo charged with poisonous agents was found in an underground tunnel in Hazrama.  On April 9th Russian Military chemical personnel visited the site of the alleged chemical attack in Douma, including the health facility  shown in the White Helmet's recorded footage, and found no cases of CW exposure nor traces of toxic agents. 

In the East Ghouta mop-up called Operation Damascus Steel, Syrian government troops were handed by Daesh militants (who were forced to give up their weapons under the evacuation agreement), Israeli-made sniper rifles, Belgian-made rockets and machine guns.

https://tinyurl.com/y9julglf

In the course of Operation Damascus Steel, Syrian Government troops found large caches of small arms, artillery shells, anti-tank missiles, and other supplies MADE IN Israel,, U.S., and other NATO countries.

https://tinyurl.com/yc9pyg3y 

April 13th the Syrian envoy to the U.N. Bashar Ja'afari named the nations responsible for bringing toxic agents used in the Syria conflict were brought in from Libya with the assistance of the U.K., and from the nations of Saudi Arabia, U.S., Turkey, and France.

https://tinyurl.com/ybnotlbc 

Summation:  Roughly we have a 10 day window before WW3 begins, where OSD Mattis, the JCS, can convince President Trump to overrule his war cabinet composed of know-nothings John Bolton and crew, before all hell breaks loose.

 

J

The terrorists have acquired chemical substances from Libya a long time ago from the Libyan stock. This operation was facilitated by the Turkish intelligence, Saudi intelligence and the American and French intelligence services. They smuggled chemicals from Libya to Istanbul on board of civilian airlines and the guy who was in charge of transporting these substances was a guy named Haitham al-Qassar,

More:
http://tass.com/world/999486

First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operations Department Lieutenant General Viktor Poznikhir told reporters on Wednesday.

More:
http://tass.com/defense/999108

First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operations Department Lieutenant General Viktor Poznikhir told reporters on Wednesday

More:
http://tass.com/defense/999108

Ghouta is Arabic for "Reichstag Fire" by Publius Tacitus

The dominant propaganda meme of the day, as already noted by Colonel Lang, is that Bashar al Assad unleashed chemical weapons on "innocent women and children" in rebel held territory and that Russia and Iran, along with Syria, are responsible. We MUST take action (or so we are told emphatically by morons pretending to be news anchors on the various cable outlets). Few media outlets are willing to report that this information is not only uncorroborated but originates with established liars and rebel partisans--i.e., the White Helmets. Oh, and did you know that the White Helmets are funded largely by the Governments of the UK and the United States?

It is critical to keep the source of funds in mind if you are to understand the true nature of these Islamic scam artists. Ironically, Max Blumenthal, son of the infamous Sid, has been a leader in exposing these fraudsters. Blumenthal wrote, more than three years ago, that:

The White Helmets’ leadership is driven by a pro-interventionist agenda conceived by the Western governments and public relations groups that back them. Anyone who visits the group’s website—which is operated by an opposition-funded PR company known as the Syria Campaign—will be immediately directed to a request to sign a petition for a no-fly zone to “stop the bombs” in Syria. These sorts of communiques highlight the dual role the White Helmets play as a civil defense organization saving lives while lobbying for a U.S. military campaign that will almost inevitably result in the collapse of Syria’s government. . . .

The White Helmets were founded in collaboration with USAID’s Office of Transitional Initiatives—the wing that has promoted regime change around the world—and have been provided with $23 million in funding from the department. USAID supplies the White Helmets through Chemonics, a for-profit contractor based in Washington DC that has become notorious for wasteful aid imbroglios from Haiti to Afghanistan. While members of the White Helmets have been implicated in atrocities carried out by jihadist rebel groups, the names of many of the firms that supposedly monitor and evaluate their work have been kept secret by USAID on unspecified security grounds.

SKRIPALMANIA byPatrick Armstrong

1. It’s obvious nonsense brought to you by proven liars.
2. The point of propaganda is to leave an impression after the details have been forgotten.
3. To get involved in discussing the minutiae of the story is to help the propagandists’ aims.
4. Therefore treat it as a badly constructed story that is failing to convince.
5. Do this by analysing the comments on the news stories which (at least the ones I’ve looked at) show that people are sceptical.
6. Also mock the meanderings of the story: At the restaurant! In the car! On the doorstep! Incredibly lethal but strangely ineffective. Miraculous recovery of daughter. Baby wipes as effective protection. Reminiscent of White Helmets and their flip flops, rubber gloves and paper masks; but, come to think of it, it’s the same authors in both stories. Who, after so many lies, are becoming overconfident and sloppy.

It’s a startlingly incompetent theatrical production and should be responded to with contemptuous mockery.

Madness, it's madness. In March. You know what that means - ....... by Fred

 

Get your brackets ready!

Remember when the real press carried the real important news in March?  

My where have those days gone. It was all so much fun. "Obama played pickup games throughout his marathon campaign...." The ultimate playa. 

But we can restore the spirt of the old days, because we have - a blog!

Damascus Steel nears its conclusion. What’s next? - TTG

The fighting in the East Ghouta is quickly winding down. Much of the success is due to the SAA’s employment of overwhelming forces in the area, aggressive fire and maneuver of combined arms teams and a judicious use of air and artillery fire support. All this guided by a heavy use of UAVs. However, much of the success of this operation is due to the work of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria. Rather than having to fight for every street corner and apartment block, thousands of the jihadis were induced to being bussed to Idlib with only their small arms and no ammunition. Heavy weapons were handed over to the SAA. Thousands of Syrian civilians and prisoners held by the jihadists were freed. In my opinion, this was a far better outcome than the devastation that occurred in Raqqa and Mosul.

What’s next? I would think that the Daesh jihadis holding Yarmouk and Qadam would be the next focus after the last district of East Ghouta is secured. Longer term, it appears the SAA is setting its sights on the Dara’a region. Al Masdar News reports today that the SAA and Russians “have sent an official military delegation to the rebel-held areas of Dara’a to begin reconciliation talks”

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“According to the military source, the delegation has offered terms of reconciliation to the rebels in Dara’a, which include the surrender of all heavy arms to the government. In addition to surrendering their heavy arms, the rebels will also have to agree to reopen roads in order to promote commerce and trade between all towns in the Dara’a Governorate.

In exchange for reconciliation, the rebels will be allowed to control the towns they are already present in, while also receiving aid from the government. The rebels will also be offered the opportunity to settle their cases with the Syrian government.

The delegation has warned the rebels in Dara’a that the failure of these reconciliation talks will result in a Syrian military operation.”

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This is getting very close to the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. We can expect a dramatic rise in the anti-Damascus and anti-Iranian propaganda as well as a rise in Israeli military support to their jihadist allies in the region. That’s a given. The real question is how Trump and his new NSA and SecState will react. ’Tis a puzzlement.

TTG 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/exclusive-syrian-military-sends-delegation-to-rebel-held-daraa-to-begin-reconciliation-talks/

Syria Report 21 March 2018 - TTG

"DAMASCUS, SYRIA (06:05 PM) – Turkey is not planning to remain in Syria’s Afrin district indefinitely, according to Bekir Bozdağ, Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey.

Bozdağ made the remarks during a press conference on Monday, as reported by Turkish newspaper Hürriyet Daily News. The minister’s remarks come a day after rebel forces of the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA), backed heavily by Turkish military support, captured Afrin city on Sunday.

According to Bozdağ, Turkey is planning to withdraw its armed forces from the region soon and return Afrin to “its rightful owners”. However, the Turkish minister failed to clarify who exactly he was referring to with this."  (Al Masdar News)

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This statement certainly was news to me. It could be a smokescreen, but I don’t see any reason Ankara would need a smokescreen. Perhaps eliminating the Kurdish threat is the real goal of operation Olive Branch. If true, it bodes well for the future of Syria. While I don’t know Erdogan’s full reasons for the operation, I strongly suspect that one of Russia’s goals for acquiescing to the operation was to force a breakup of the US-Kurdish marriage and a return of Rojava to Damascus. Now that Afrin has fallen, we must wait to see what the TSK and FSA have in store for Manbij. US troops are still in the area. Will they abandon their Kurdish allies in the face of a TSK/FSA advance? What happens when the TSK/FSA go after Kobane? I would think that the Kurds will eventually realize that the US is not their friend and ally and that taking the deal offered by Damascus is their only hope of resisting further Turkish predations.    

The SAA offensive to reduce the East Ghouta pocket appears to be going well. It should. The SAA massed sufficient forces, the cream of the SAA, and applied sufficient supporting fires to ensure success. However, the fighting has not been without surprises. After inducing a large number of jihadis to surrender or be bussed to Idlib and successfully evacuating tens of thousands of civilians out of harms way, the SAA was hit by a surprise Daesh attack out of the Yarmouk refugee camp into the al Qadam district. Some SAA troops were surrounded for a short time before being rescued by a sharp counterattack. The SAA suffered high casualties at al Qadam requiring the redeployment of several assault units from the 4th Mechanized Division to reinforce the line. Daesh now control ninety percent of the al Qadam district in this back and forth battle.

The jihadis suffered heavy losses as a result of another one of their counterattacks targeting Masraba. They pushed forward recapturing a large swath of the district. The SAA again had to divert forces to stop the counterattack. After a day, the jihadis decided to pull back to their original positions in Douma. Unfortunately for them, the SAA caught them in an indirect and direct fire trap as they crossed an open area resulting in lots of dead jihadis.    

To the southeast, the SAA and its militia allies stopped a sizable Daesh offensive just south of T2. This offensive consisted of numerous waves over two days. The jihadis simultaneously struck near al Mayadin and al Bukamal. The SAA called in airstrikes to beat back the attacks. Estimated casualties on both sides exceeded one hundred. The R+6 made a wise decision when they started reinforcing the Deir Ezzor area a few weeks ago.

In my opinion, all these battles point to the wisdom of reducing some of these pockets of jihadis before finally taking on the Idlib area. Those in the pockets are not defeated remnants waiting to be mopped up. They are organized units fully capable of offensive actions. They could create havoc if they attacked while the bulk of the SAA was engaged in Idlib. Perhaps now that the TSK/FSA has made Afrin safe for jihadis, the SAA can soon push the Idlib jihadis further north once that inevitable offensive kicks off. 

The US is reportedly beefing up its garrison at al Tanf and establishing similar strongpoints in the YPG/SDF occupied areas east of the Euphrates. From these garrisons, Special Forces teams continue to organize, equip and train various shades of remnant jihadi outfits to ostensibly take on Daesh, but the real target appears to be the SAA and its allies. I try to imagine some of the conversations that must go on around the fire among these teams. Exasperated talk about what those idiots back in DC are thinking. Surly, mutinous talk that stays around the campfire, but also in the minds of the Green Berets. Once the campfires die out, they will move on and continue to fulfill their assigned missions to the best of their abilities. 

General Votel may agree that Assad had won the civil war in Syria, but he knows this is far from over. The situation is still fraught with danger for all in the region. 

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-deputy-pm-turkey-will-not-remain-in-afrin/

https://ejmagnier.com/2018/03/20/why-afrin-has-fallen-us-turkish-russian-kurdish-roles/

https://ahvalnews2.com/afrin/ypg-live-fight-another-day-expert

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201803071062325647-daesh-syria-offensive/

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-march-20-2018-u-s-building-military-garrison-to-control-largest-syrian-oil-field/

Votel, Mattis and Dunford must be on the same page.

 

"The top U.S. general in the Middle East testified before Congress this week and dropped several bombshells: from signaled support for the Iran nuclear deal, admitting the U.S. does not know what Saudi Arabia does with its bombs in Yemen and that Assad has won the Syrian Civil War.

U.S. Army General Joseph Votel said the Iran agreement, which President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from, has played an important role in addressing Iran's nuclear program.

"The JCPOA addresses one of the principle threats that we deal with from Iran, so if the JCPOA goes away, then we will have to have another way to deal with their nuclear weapons program," said U.S. Army General Joseph Votel.

JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is the formal name of the accord reached with Iran in July 2015 in Vienna.

Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from the accord between Tehran and six world powers unless Congress and European allies help "fix" it with a follow-up pact. Trump does not like the deal's limited duration, among other things.

Votel is head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia, including Iran. He was speaking to a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the same day that Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after a series of public rifts over policy, including Iran.

Tillerson had joined Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in pressing a skeptical Trump to stick with the agreement with Iran.

"There would be some concern (in the region), I think, about how we intended to address that particular threat if it was not being addressed through the JCPOA. ... Right now, I think it is in our interest" to stay in the deal, Votel said.

When a lawmaker asked whether he agreed with Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford's position on the deal,Votel said: "Yes, I share their position."

Mattis said late last year that the United States should consider staying in the Iran nuclear deal unless it was proven Tehran was not complying or that the agreement was not in the U.S. national interest.

A collapse of the Iran nuclear deal would be a “great loss,” the United Nations atomic watchdog's chief warned Trump recently, giving a wide-ranging defense of the accord.

Iran has stayed within the deal’s restrictions since Trump took office but has fired diplomatic warning shots at Washington in recent weeks. It said on Monday that it could rapidly enrich uranium to a higher degree of purity if the deal collapsed.

Syria

Votel also discussed the situation in Syria at the hearing.

During the Syrian army's offensive in eastern Ghouta, more than 1,100 civilians have died. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, backed by Russia and Iran, say they are targeting "terrorist" groups shelling the capital.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned on Monday that Washington "remains prepared to act if we must," if the U.N. Security Council failed to act on Syria.

Votel said the best way to deter Russia, which backs Assad, was through political and diplomatic channels.

"Certainly if there are other things that are considered, you know, we will do what we are told. ... (But) I don't recommend that at this particular point," Votel said, in an apparent to reference to military options.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham asked whether it was too strong to say that with Russia and Iran's help, Assad had "won" the civil war in Syria.

"I do not think that is too strong of a statement," Votel said.

Graham also asked if the United States' policy on Syria was still to seek the removal of Assad from power.

"I don't know that that's our particular policy at this particular point. Our focus remains on the defeat of ISIS," Votel said, using an acronym for Islamic State. "  Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-18/us-centcom-chief-comes-clean-generals-three-stunning-admissions-mid-east

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Votel would never say anything like this if he were not in agreement with Mattis and Dunford.  This is illustrative of a weakening of Israeli/AIPAC/Saudi  influence in US Middle East policy.  It will be interesting to see if Votel is rebuked for these statements.  pl

 

Syria Report - 17 March 2018

In the ongoing battles around Damascus it seems more and more clear to me that the Syrian Government is consolidating its position in its heartlands in anticipation of an armistice negotiated by the Russians, an armistice that may last for years as the government and the rebels (now mostly jihadis) gather their strength for a renewal of the conflict toward a final result that will result in annihilation of one side.  The East Gouta pocket is being sliced up apace by the SAA.  The western part of the pocket is a built up urban area while the eastern area is farmland and villages.  The SAA chose to go into Gouta from the east and are now evacuating civilians from the remaining jihadi held urban areas in the west of the pocket.  10,000 are reported to have been evacuated thus far.  They are assisted in this by the Russian military police.  The evacuees are leaving by moving east through the farmland rather than west through metropolitan Damascus.  There have been numerous demonstrations in favor of the government in the rebel/jihadi held areas of Gouta.  This has been little reported in Western media.

The continuing US policy of regime change in Syria leaves little possibility that the government can recover Syria east and north of the Euphrates River. That land is under US government "protection."  How the movement of (US) Kurds to Afrin to fight will affect that is unpredictable.

As SST forecast just after the fall of Aleppo City to the government, Idlib Province has become a cancerous wound in the side of the possibility of a fully re-united Syria.  The Turks are taking advantage of their burgeoning relationship with Russia to eradicate Kurdish control of Afrin district in Aleppo Province.  The Turks are making steady progress in this effort.  The evolving tie to Russia is evident in the S-400 SAM deal and Russia seems complicit in the "Olive Branch" campaign.  There are clearly limits to Russian protection of the SAG.  The Turks have now established "observation posts" of company size all along the eastern border of Idlib Province.  These are positioned to impede a renewed advance of  R+6 into Idlib Province once SAA and friends are finished in the Damascus area.    The latest of these posts is now being placed just NW of Aleppo so as to prevent an advance by the government to the west into northern Aleppo Province.  IMO what we are seeing is a slow motion annexation of NW Syria by Turkey.  Tayyip Erdogan seems to want to be remembered as Fatih Sultan Tayyip.  Would the SAG be strong enough to fight Turkey in Idlib?  That is an open question.

The Russian MoD says that the US is planning cruise missile attacks on Syria in response to a putative gas attack in the Gouta area.  This is somewhat amusing  given the recent capture of a jihadi chlorine gas factory in East Gouts, but, we will see.  pl  

 https://southfront.org/syrian-army-advances-reportedly-liberates-two-more-towns-evacuates-thousands-of-civilians-in-eastern-ghouta-map-photos/

https://southfront.org/overview-of-battle-for-afrin-on-march-17-2018-map-video-photo/

https://southfront.org/turkish-army-is-establishing-new-observation-post-north-of-aleppo-city-video/

https://southfront.org/u-s-deploys-naval-strike-groups-for-attacks-on-syria-trains-militants-for-false-flag-chemical-attacks/