Sic Semper Tyrannis

Neocon Jack Keane wants a permanent US presence in Syria

 

"Keane retired from military service in 2003. He now works as a national security analyst for Fox News. He has served an advisory role in the management of the U.S. occupation of Iraq, as a member of the Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee. In January 2007, Keane and scholar Frederick W. Kagan released a policy paper, entitled "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq",^[7] through the American Enterprise Institute that called for bringing security by putting around 30,000 additional American troops there for a period of at least 18 months. In part convinced by this paper, President George W. Bush ordered on January 10, 2007, the deployment of 21,500 additional troops to Iraq, most of whom would be deployed to Baghdad, this deployment has been nicknamed the 2007 "surge".    wiki on Keane

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I watched this man hold forth this morning on Varney and Company a business and politics show hosted by Stuart Varney a fervently American immigrant from England who apparently never saw a jingo he didn't like.

General Keane is a close associate of the Kagans, Victoria Nuland, Petraeus and the like.  He has consistently pressed in policy circles for aggressive foreign policy ventures including the Iraq "Surge" that helped secure the Baghdad area from Iraqi insurgents.  In fact the security situation markedly improved across Iraq because Petraeus was smart enough to encourage the work that had been done by Green Berets and junior USMC people in encouraging the Sunni Arabs to abandon support of the jihadi guerrillas.

On Varney's show today Keane pushed for a US policy in Syria that would establish a "security zone" in Syria east of the Euphrates and in the Kurdish areas east of Manbij.  He was clear that he believes that this "security zone" should be held indefinitely, in other words, permanently.

He said that such a zone would prevent the western expansion of Iran through northern Iraq and then Syria westward to the Mediterranean thus completing the dreaded Shia Crescent.  The fact that the Iraqi sovereign government might object to such Iranian expansion did not seem to occur to him.  Perhaps he has taken note of the condemnation by that Shia Arab dominated government of the FUKUS missile strikes in Syria.

To help the FUKUS forces hold this enclave indefinitely, he repeated the notion that the Sunni majority countries in the region should contribute armed forces to the Sunni Enclave.  DJT has recently said much the same thing.  This raises the possibility to me that his "thinking" on this matter originates with the arch neocons and their favorite vehicle the Institute for the Study of War, a Kagan operation through and through.  Well, pilgrims, I am here to tell you that the Sunni Arab countries are not going to do that,  Apart from Jordan's small but competent forces, the rest have no armed forces capable of doing anything but oppress civilian populations.  Saudi Arabia's indefensible war against the people of Yemen is a perfect example of the military ineptitude of the Sunni Arab states.  Repeatedly defeated by the Houthis and the rump of the Yemeni Army the Saudi have resorted to employing African and other mercenaries against the Yemenis as well as pursuing a savage campaign of aerial bombing against Yemeni civilians.  Perhaps they were inspired to do this by the courses of study of RSAF officers at the US Air Force "University" at Montgomery, Alabama.  the Strategic Bombing theories of Douhet are still much admired there.

Toward the end of his discourse this morning, Keane, came to the crux of his argument.  He said that a war is coming in which Iran, Hizbullah and the Syrian government will fight Israel and that the US must be in a position in Syria to defend Israel when that happens.  Thus it is revealed that the source of Keane's (and now DJT's) thinking is simply Israel's obsession with the hostility of the Gentile World to include all those Muslims surrounding them.  In other words, Keane's neocon pitch is based on Zionist fear.

Keane several times repeated a line to the effect that no US combat brigades or regiments would be committed to the Sunni Enclave.  To believe this magical thinking is to believe that no real fighting would eventually have to be done.

I have seen a poll today that indicates that 61% of the American people approve of the FUKUS missile strikes against the fictional chemical weapons target set in Syria.  The gullibility involved in that is impressive.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Keane

Are the Russians Correct? by W. Patrick Lang

"The US Government claims that 100% of the 100 plus cruise missiles launched by the coalition it heads reached their targets on Syrian government chemical warfare connected sites.

The Syrian and Russian governments state that 75% of these missiles did not reach their targets.

Who should we believe?

The extreme nature of the US claim should inspire caution. No system functions at 100% efficiency and effectiveness. None. A very senior civilian colleague in DIA once asked me why sophisticated weapons so often malfunction or are otherwise defeated. I told her that it was simply a fact of life that in actual warfare “whatever can go wrong, will go wrong.” She resolutely stated that this should not be. “The manufacturers guarantee that they will work as advertised,” she insisted. “They lie,” I told her. “That’s business.” She was not happy with that answer, but it was the truth. There is no such thing as a perfectly functioning weapon system."  Lang

http://www.unz.com/article/are-the-russians-correct/

The strategy behind the de-escalation zones - TTG

   Location of the four de-escalation zones

The recent advances by the R+6 in Ghouta, Yarmouk, Qalamun and beyond have laid bare the true strategy of the de-escalation zones established by the Astana Accords. They certainly were not meant to establish a new status quo of rebel safe areas guaranteed to torment Damascus for years to come. They are, I contend, a blueprint for ending the armed resistance to Damascus and reestablishing the territorial integrity of Syria west of the Euphrates. The eventual Turkish-Syrian border will remain a question for future resolution, one way or another.

The reduction of the Ghouta pocket, or de-escalation zone 3 as it was referred to at Astana, was a perfect example of the de-escalation strategy, a strategy to limit the death, destruction and suffering to a minimum while still attaining R+6 objectives. It is a strategy carefully planned and executed to avoid attrition warfare. It begins with an offer/ultimatum to the rebels. You can reconcile with Damascus or be bussed to the Idlib area. If you choose Idlib you will leave all heavy weapons and vehicles to the SAA. If you refuse this offer, the R+6 will unleash a massive punch of artillery and air power followed by a violent strike by elite SAA units. This cycle is repeated until the targeted rebels surrender, reconcile or fall in defeat. This strategy saves civilian lives and infrastructure and preserves SAA combat forces.

This is how the Ghouta pocket was reduced, piece by piece. As that battle wound down, pressure was kept on the Yarmouk pocket while the Tiger Force moved to Qalamun. That battle just ended with another victory for the R+6. It appears the SAA captured a battalion worth of older but serviceable main battle tanks (or more) along with much other equipment and ammunition. Damascus has also gained additional forces for their NDF units from reconciled rebels.

With the Qalamun pocket eliminated, the Tiger Force now is reported to be moving to Yarmouk to assist in the reduction of that pocket. Some of the rebels and even some Daesh elements already took the offer for bus tickets to Jarabulus after a savage artillery and air strike followed by a quick, savage advance by the SAA 4th Mechanized Division and the Liwa al-Quds Brigade. It’s just a matter of time that the last of the Daesh holdouts are no more.

 The Qalamun and Daraa pockets  

Further to the south, the Russian Reconciliation Center is negotiating with rebels around Daraa, the southernmost de-escalation zone. The Daraa rebels have largely maintained the ceasefire since the Astana accords established the de-escalation zones. For that reason, the R+6 is confident that many of the fighters can be peeled away from the rebels by reconciliation or offers of bus tickets to Idlib. However, here the rebels still have resupply lines to Jordan and Israel. They are making moves to start an offensive to take Daraa. The jihadis are also attacking the non-Daesh jihadis near Daraa. These variables definitely affect the calculus of the R+6 carrot-stick strategy so effective at Ghouta and Qalamun. I think the R+6 will keep talking at Darra while keeping “kinetic” pressure on the rebels to whittle down what they can while the isolated rebel pocket between Homs and Hama will be the next to be eliminated.    

  The Hama pocket  

The SAA has already started an offensive at Hama. In the last few days the SAA 4th and 11th Divisions (NDF?) struck the northeast corner of this pocket, capturing six towns and inflicting serious casualties on the rebels. The SAA kicked off this offensive after the rebels refused an SAA demand to surrender that area. No elite SAA units are yet involved in the Hama fighting.

The Idlib de-escalation area has not been forgotten. The Russian Aerospace Forces continue to hit the Jisr al-Shugour area. There were rumors that the Tiger Force was moving north after Qalamun to prepare for the eventual offensive to take that area. Perhaps they’ll head there after Yarmouk is cleared. A period of rest and refitting is in order while other SAA forces reduce the Hama pocket. The SAA is not afraid to hit other sectors of the Idlib de-escalation zone. Rebels in al-Latamenah north of Hama broke the ceasefire by attacking nearby SAA positions. In response, the SAA have unleashed daily artillery rocket attacks against these rebels only eight kilometers from a Turkish observation post at Morek (in full accordance with the Astana Accords). What happens to these observation posts once the R+6 starts addressing the Idlib pocket in earnest? Will they willingly withdraw to Afrin? Time will tell.

TTG  

Commenter Delusions

 

I wrote a piece for the Unz Review yesterday.  You can see it over there.  There were over a hundred comments.  Most of them were favorable, but some were just awful and these included words from a few people who have been seen on SST.

The prevailing complaint about me was that I am not an anti-Semite and am just a "toy boy goy" for the The Lobby, someone who fears the Zionists will cut off my access to media money.  This is amusing since I was long ago driven from the public square by AIPAC  black list operations.  I have long opposed the illegal interference of the non-PAC AIPAC in US policy decisions but I will NEVER equate the Zionist project with American Jews as a group.

A further complaint against me is that I supposedly do not acknowledge the control over US foreign policy exercised by the "MIC" and/or a desire to seize the natural resources of sad little countries.  Well, that accusation is valid.  I do not accept either of those propositions.  Military materiel manufacturers respond to competitive government bidding processes.  They do not create such requirements.  If you wish to think they do, then you should push the idea that the manufacturers somehow participate either openly or covertly in the Quadrennial Defense Review where the structure of future defense forces is decided.

As for the seizure of resources notion, show me where.  Show me!  The Philippines? What? Pineapple?  The American Indian?  What?  Buffalo hump and hides?  Beaver pelts?  The land itself?  Yes we took that from the Indian and I am unapologetic about that. It was them or us.  Iraq?  Whoever made money in Iraq, made it from looting US funds, not Iraqi oil.  Syria?  Perhaps you can persuade yourself that the US wants the small amount of oil that Syria owns east of the Euphrates.  If you can do that, you are truly delusional.  The US is sitting on a ocean of oil and gas with yet more for sale in Canada.

One of the more zany commenters suggested that my "closets are full of corpses" (possibly) and my "off shore accounts full of Russian loot." I rather like that one.  My wife comments that I have successfully hidden the Russian money from her.

pl

Real Reporting on Syria by Publius Tacitus

While the vast majority of the media--print and electronic--have been missing in action on the real story about what happened on the ground in Douma, Syria, the upstart, conservative One America News Network showed up. A OANN reporter went to Damascus and actually did some reporting. He found no evidence whatsoever that chemical weapons had been used. Please watch.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lSXwG-901yU" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

 

Trump's Big Flop In Syria by Publius Tacitus

Do not believe a word you have heard from the Pentagon and the White House about the "success" of the cruise missile strikes on Friday last. A fraud is being perpetrated on the American people and the world at large. Frankly, General Mattis and General Dunford have dishonored themselves by going along with this charade.

If you could go to the CAOC (i.e., the Combined Air Operations Center) located at the Al Udeid Air Force Base in Qatar and speak to officers working for CENTCOM, you would hear a mixture of disgust, shock and anger from many over the President's claim of "Mission Accomplished." And I am talking about people who have been supportive of President Trump. But Trump, with the sycophants at the Pentagon and the Joint Staff, has crossed a line into delusional thinking.

(By the way, here's a picture of the CAOC courtesy of the US Air Force Central Command.)

Why the discontent?

An interim post on Syria ... (Editorial) by PL

(Syrian Christian clergy)

1- The case for the Syrian government having illogically attacked with chemicals in Douma remains unproven although the language of certainty is emerging in the MSM.  It should be noted that Senator Angus King (I) of Maine told Jake Tapper today on SOTU that no evidence has yet been presented to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence concerning the gas attack.  King is a member of the committee. 

2- The hundred odd cruise missiles fired into Syria were clearly the result of a compromise Trump decision on options with Mattis arguing for restraint in the absence of more than "social media" evidence of the  attack while the ascendant neocon influence centered around John Bolton argued for fire and brimstone.  Bolton has the political weight of AIPAC and the likes of Adelson behind him as well as the egocentric contempt that Trump has for experts.

3- I have done and/or supervised many Bomb Damage Assessments (BDA).  The damage shown in the three struck facilities seems to me to be about right for the number of missiles that the Russians say got through the air defense.

4- These facilities were undoubtedly empty when struck.

5- It seems unlikely to me that Soviet era Syrian air defense equipment would have had much effect on this flotilla of cruise missiles.  Therefore, if the Russian claim resembles truth, then something else caused the losses.  I am not an air defense expert but it seems to me that some sort of advanced Russian air defense Electronic Counter Measures (ECM) may have been in play. Comments?

6- Heather Nauert, the State Department spokesperson says that Syria will have to confess to its crimes and declare its existing chemical weapons stocks before the US will "allow" Syria to participate in a political settlement of the war.  This will be difficult for Syria to do if there are no chemical stocks and there was no attack.

7.  Nikki Halley, (the sage of Turtle Bay) and VP Mike Pence (a man who believes that Homo Sapiens walked the earth with dinosaurs)  have declared that US troops will not be withdrawn from Syria until US "goals" are reached.

8.  The neocons are back, pilgrims.  pl 

More to come on this. 

Not a bad outcome, but ... (editorial comment) by PL

 

The Melkite Cathedral in Damascus 

Whether or not DJT has a private channel of communication to the Russian leadership remains an open question for me.  Those who love to think of history as an endless series of conspiratorial meetings favor the idea that DJT and VP agreed on the level of damage that would be acceptable given the fury of the gas hysteria of the last week.  There well may be such a link conducted through US Embassy Moscow.  I hope there is such a link.

In any event, Trump obviously chose one of the more inoffensive options offered to him by the JCS and James Mattis.  Was this always going to be the case in a Trumpian display of manipulation of the neocons, the brass and the media?  Or did Mattis successfully wrestle Bolton for control of Trump's decision?  The truth is concealed behind DJT's grin and somewhat obscured  by his low hanging locks. 

These targets were not derived from some wonderful feat of intelligence collection and analysis.  These facilities were in DIA's data base 23 years ago when I left DIA.  On a visit to Syria way back then, I drove around the country with the US military attache to these and a number of other facilities so that I could see them myself for future reference in a crisis.  We gave data on these targets to the Israelis as part of our ongoing cooperation.

So far, so good, but there is a built in future menace in what is being said of this attack program.  It is that an absence of future attacks is contingent on an absence of supposed future chemical attacks.

Therefore it is easy to see that whenever the rebels/jihadis want the government attacked they can stage manage more chemical attacks.

IMO if that occurs there would be an inevitable escalation of targeting until the core combat assets of the R+6 are the targets.  pl

The Russian General Staff Has A Grip On Reality, The Pentagon Sadly Doesn't -- J

 

Memo to OSD Mattis -- When was the last time you picked up your phone and had a real conversation with members of the Russian General Staff?  You might want to try it, it's called truth versus fiction.

The Russian General Staff personnel understand well the meaning of war, their nation suffered the most in the last BIG ONE the one history books called World War 2. 

Memo to "Retd. General" Mattis -- Do you understand how many humans died on the Russian side in the last war called World War 2?  Just under 9 Million Soldiers, these figures don't include the civilian death toll of the Russian populace, we're talking Soldiers (aka  Uniformed Personnel).  Our U.S. lost roughly a 1/2 Million Soldiers (aka Uniformed Personnel).  General Mattis can you please wrap yourself around those figures, PLEASE!   How many human beings need to be sacrificed in the fast approaching UNNECESSARY BIG ONE called WW3?  Can cooler heads prevail, can we step back from the slippery precipice we (U.S. and Russia) are headed to? 

The newspapers and TV networks who promote and propagandize, the politicians who create WAR out of thin air, the bankers who finance, the corporations who make war weaponry don't think of WAR in human terms, in human loss, they think of WAR in ratings, in political, and in financial terms ONLY. 

First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff's Main Operations Department Lieutenant General Viktor Poznikhir told reporters on Wednesday, that the chemical attack on April 7th upon civilians in the town of Douma , were staged and filmed by members of the White Helmet Organization.  A workshop where militants had been loading ammo with poisonous chemicals  were found in underground tunnels he said.  Previously, on March 3rd,  a militant's workshop composed of makeshift ammo charged with poisonous agents was found in an underground tunnel in Hazrama.  On April 9th Russian Military chemical personnel visited the site of the alleged chemical attack in Douma, including the health facility  shown in the White Helmet's recorded footage, and found no cases of CW exposure nor traces of toxic agents. 

In the East Ghouta mop-up called Operation Damascus Steel, Syrian government troops were handed by Daesh militants (who were forced to give up their weapons under the evacuation agreement), Israeli-made sniper rifles, Belgian-made rockets and machine guns.

https://tinyurl.com/y9julglf

In the course of Operation Damascus Steel, Syrian Government troops found large caches of small arms, artillery shells, anti-tank missiles, and other supplies MADE IN Israel,, U.S., and other NATO countries.

https://tinyurl.com/yc9pyg3y 

April 13th the Syrian envoy to the U.N. Bashar Ja'afari named the nations responsible for bringing toxic agents used in the Syria conflict were brought in from Libya with the assistance of the U.K., and from the nations of Saudi Arabia, U.S., Turkey, and France.

https://tinyurl.com/ybnotlbc 

Summation:  Roughly we have a 10 day window before WW3 begins, where OSD Mattis, the JCS, can convince President Trump to overrule his war cabinet composed of know-nothings John Bolton and crew, before all hell breaks loose.

 

J

The terrorists have acquired chemical substances from Libya a long time ago from the Libyan stock. This operation was facilitated by the Turkish intelligence, Saudi intelligence and the American and French intelligence services. They smuggled chemicals from Libya to Istanbul on board of civilian airlines and the guy who was in charge of transporting these substances was a guy named Haitham al-Qassar,

More:
http://tass.com/world/999486

First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operations Department Lieutenant General Viktor Poznikhir told reporters on Wednesday.

More:
http://tass.com/defense/999108

First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operations Department Lieutenant General Viktor Poznikhir told reporters on Wednesday

More:
http://tass.com/defense/999108

Ghouta is Arabic for "Reichstag Fire" by Publius Tacitus

The dominant propaganda meme of the day, as already noted by Colonel Lang, is that Bashar al Assad unleashed chemical weapons on "innocent women and children" in rebel held territory and that Russia and Iran, along with Syria, are responsible. We MUST take action (or so we are told emphatically by morons pretending to be news anchors on the various cable outlets). Few media outlets are willing to report that this information is not only uncorroborated but originates with established liars and rebel partisans--i.e., the White Helmets. Oh, and did you know that the White Helmets are funded largely by the Governments of the UK and the United States?

It is critical to keep the source of funds in mind if you are to understand the true nature of these Islamic scam artists. Ironically, Max Blumenthal, son of the infamous Sid, has been a leader in exposing these fraudsters. Blumenthal wrote, more than three years ago, that:

The White Helmets’ leadership is driven by a pro-interventionist agenda conceived by the Western governments and public relations groups that back them. Anyone who visits the group’s website—which is operated by an opposition-funded PR company known as the Syria Campaign—will be immediately directed to a request to sign a petition for a no-fly zone to “stop the bombs” in Syria. These sorts of communiques highlight the dual role the White Helmets play as a civil defense organization saving lives while lobbying for a U.S. military campaign that will almost inevitably result in the collapse of Syria’s government. . . .

The White Helmets were founded in collaboration with USAID’s Office of Transitional Initiatives—the wing that has promoted regime change around the world—and have been provided with $23 million in funding from the department. USAID supplies the White Helmets through Chemonics, a for-profit contractor based in Washington DC that has become notorious for wasteful aid imbroglios from Haiti to Afghanistan. While members of the White Helmets have been implicated in atrocities carried out by jihadist rebel groups, the names of many of the firms that supposedly monitor and evaluate their work have been kept secret by USAID on unspecified security grounds.

SKRIPALMANIA byPatrick Armstrong

1. It’s obvious nonsense brought to you by proven liars.
2. The point of propaganda is to leave an impression after the details have been forgotten.
3. To get involved in discussing the minutiae of the story is to help the propagandists’ aims.
4. Therefore treat it as a badly constructed story that is failing to convince.
5. Do this by analysing the comments on the news stories which (at least the ones I’ve looked at) show that people are sceptical.
6. Also mock the meanderings of the story: At the restaurant! In the car! On the doorstep! Incredibly lethal but strangely ineffective. Miraculous recovery of daughter. Baby wipes as effective protection. Reminiscent of White Helmets and their flip flops, rubber gloves and paper masks; but, come to think of it, it’s the same authors in both stories. Who, after so many lies, are becoming overconfident and sloppy.

It’s a startlingly incompetent theatrical production and should be responded to with contemptuous mockery.

Madness, it's madness. In March. You know what that means - ....... by Fred

 

Get your brackets ready!

Remember when the real press carried the real important news in March?  

My where have those days gone. It was all so much fun. "Obama played pickup games throughout his marathon campaign...." The ultimate playa. 

But we can restore the spirt of the old days, because we have - a blog!

Damascus Steel nears its conclusion. What’s next? - TTG

The fighting in the East Ghouta is quickly winding down. Much of the success is due to the SAA’s employment of overwhelming forces in the area, aggressive fire and maneuver of combined arms teams and a judicious use of air and artillery fire support. All this guided by a heavy use of UAVs. However, much of the success of this operation is due to the work of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria. Rather than having to fight for every street corner and apartment block, thousands of the jihadis were induced to being bussed to Idlib with only their small arms and no ammunition. Heavy weapons were handed over to the SAA. Thousands of Syrian civilians and prisoners held by the jihadists were freed. In my opinion, this was a far better outcome than the devastation that occurred in Raqqa and Mosul.

What’s next? I would think that the Daesh jihadis holding Yarmouk and Qadam would be the next focus after the last district of East Ghouta is secured. Longer term, it appears the SAA is setting its sights on the Dara’a region. Al Masdar News reports today that the SAA and Russians “have sent an official military delegation to the rebel-held areas of Dara’a to begin reconciliation talks”

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“According to the military source, the delegation has offered terms of reconciliation to the rebels in Dara’a, which include the surrender of all heavy arms to the government. In addition to surrendering their heavy arms, the rebels will also have to agree to reopen roads in order to promote commerce and trade between all towns in the Dara’a Governorate.

In exchange for reconciliation, the rebels will be allowed to control the towns they are already present in, while also receiving aid from the government. The rebels will also be offered the opportunity to settle their cases with the Syrian government.

The delegation has warned the rebels in Dara’a that the failure of these reconciliation talks will result in a Syrian military operation.”

**********************

This is getting very close to the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. We can expect a dramatic rise in the anti-Damascus and anti-Iranian propaganda as well as a rise in Israeli military support to their jihadist allies in the region. That’s a given. The real question is how Trump and his new NSA and SecState will react. ’Tis a puzzlement.

TTG 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/exclusive-syrian-military-sends-delegation-to-rebel-held-daraa-to-begin-reconciliation-talks/

Syria Report 21 March 2018 - TTG

"DAMASCUS, SYRIA (06:05 PM) – Turkey is not planning to remain in Syria’s Afrin district indefinitely, according to Bekir Bozdağ, Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey.

Bozdağ made the remarks during a press conference on Monday, as reported by Turkish newspaper Hürriyet Daily News. The minister’s remarks come a day after rebel forces of the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA), backed heavily by Turkish military support, captured Afrin city on Sunday.

According to Bozdağ, Turkey is planning to withdraw its armed forces from the region soon and return Afrin to “its rightful owners”. However, the Turkish minister failed to clarify who exactly he was referring to with this."  (Al Masdar News)

**************************

This statement certainly was news to me. It could be a smokescreen, but I don’t see any reason Ankara would need a smokescreen. Perhaps eliminating the Kurdish threat is the real goal of operation Olive Branch. If true, it bodes well for the future of Syria. While I don’t know Erdogan’s full reasons for the operation, I strongly suspect that one of Russia’s goals for acquiescing to the operation was to force a breakup of the US-Kurdish marriage and a return of Rojava to Damascus. Now that Afrin has fallen, we must wait to see what the TSK and FSA have in store for Manbij. US troops are still in the area. Will they abandon their Kurdish allies in the face of a TSK/FSA advance? What happens when the TSK/FSA go after Kobane? I would think that the Kurds will eventually realize that the US is not their friend and ally and that taking the deal offered by Damascus is their only hope of resisting further Turkish predations.    

The SAA offensive to reduce the East Ghouta pocket appears to be going well. It should. The SAA massed sufficient forces, the cream of the SAA, and applied sufficient supporting fires to ensure success. However, the fighting has not been without surprises. After inducing a large number of jihadis to surrender or be bussed to Idlib and successfully evacuating tens of thousands of civilians out of harms way, the SAA was hit by a surprise Daesh attack out of the Yarmouk refugee camp into the al Qadam district. Some SAA troops were surrounded for a short time before being rescued by a sharp counterattack. The SAA suffered high casualties at al Qadam requiring the redeployment of several assault units from the 4th Mechanized Division to reinforce the line. Daesh now control ninety percent of the al Qadam district in this back and forth battle.

The jihadis suffered heavy losses as a result of another one of their counterattacks targeting Masraba. They pushed forward recapturing a large swath of the district. The SAA again had to divert forces to stop the counterattack. After a day, the jihadis decided to pull back to their original positions in Douma. Unfortunately for them, the SAA caught them in an indirect and direct fire trap as they crossed an open area resulting in lots of dead jihadis.    

To the southeast, the SAA and its militia allies stopped a sizable Daesh offensive just south of T2. This offensive consisted of numerous waves over two days. The jihadis simultaneously struck near al Mayadin and al Bukamal. The SAA called in airstrikes to beat back the attacks. Estimated casualties on both sides exceeded one hundred. The R+6 made a wise decision when they started reinforcing the Deir Ezzor area a few weeks ago.

In my opinion, all these battles point to the wisdom of reducing some of these pockets of jihadis before finally taking on the Idlib area. Those in the pockets are not defeated remnants waiting to be mopped up. They are organized units fully capable of offensive actions. They could create havoc if they attacked while the bulk of the SAA was engaged in Idlib. Perhaps now that the TSK/FSA has made Afrin safe for jihadis, the SAA can soon push the Idlib jihadis further north once that inevitable offensive kicks off. 

The US is reportedly beefing up its garrison at al Tanf and establishing similar strongpoints in the YPG/SDF occupied areas east of the Euphrates. From these garrisons, Special Forces teams continue to organize, equip and train various shades of remnant jihadi outfits to ostensibly take on Daesh, but the real target appears to be the SAA and its allies. I try to imagine some of the conversations that must go on around the fire among these teams. Exasperated talk about what those idiots back in DC are thinking. Surly, mutinous talk that stays around the campfire, but also in the minds of the Green Berets. Once the campfires die out, they will move on and continue to fulfill their assigned missions to the best of their abilities. 

General Votel may agree that Assad had won the civil war in Syria, but he knows this is far from over. The situation is still fraught with danger for all in the region. 

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-deputy-pm-turkey-will-not-remain-in-afrin/

https://ejmagnier.com/2018/03/20/why-afrin-has-fallen-us-turkish-russian-kurdish-roles/

https://ahvalnews2.com/afrin/ypg-live-fight-another-day-expert

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201803071062325647-daesh-syria-offensive/

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-march-20-2018-u-s-building-military-garrison-to-control-largest-syrian-oil-field/

Votel, Mattis and Dunford must be on the same page.

 

"The top U.S. general in the Middle East testified before Congress this week and dropped several bombshells: from signaled support for the Iran nuclear deal, admitting the U.S. does not know what Saudi Arabia does with its bombs in Yemen and that Assad has won the Syrian Civil War.

U.S. Army General Joseph Votel said the Iran agreement, which President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw from, has played an important role in addressing Iran's nuclear program.

"The JCPOA addresses one of the principle threats that we deal with from Iran, so if the JCPOA goes away, then we will have to have another way to deal with their nuclear weapons program," said U.S. Army General Joseph Votel.

JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is the formal name of the accord reached with Iran in July 2015 in Vienna.

Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from the accord between Tehran and six world powers unless Congress and European allies help "fix" it with a follow-up pact. Trump does not like the deal's limited duration, among other things.

Votel is head of the U.S. military’s Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia, including Iran. He was speaking to a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the same day that Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after a series of public rifts over policy, including Iran.

Tillerson had joined Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in pressing a skeptical Trump to stick with the agreement with Iran.

"There would be some concern (in the region), I think, about how we intended to address that particular threat if it was not being addressed through the JCPOA. ... Right now, I think it is in our interest" to stay in the deal, Votel said.

When a lawmaker asked whether he agreed with Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford's position on the deal,Votel said: "Yes, I share their position."

Mattis said late last year that the United States should consider staying in the Iran nuclear deal unless it was proven Tehran was not complying or that the agreement was not in the U.S. national interest.

A collapse of the Iran nuclear deal would be a “great loss,” the United Nations atomic watchdog's chief warned Trump recently, giving a wide-ranging defense of the accord.

Iran has stayed within the deal’s restrictions since Trump took office but has fired diplomatic warning shots at Washington in recent weeks. It said on Monday that it could rapidly enrich uranium to a higher degree of purity if the deal collapsed.

Syria

Votel also discussed the situation in Syria at the hearing.

During the Syrian army's offensive in eastern Ghouta, more than 1,100 civilians have died. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, backed by Russia and Iran, say they are targeting "terrorist" groups shelling the capital.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned on Monday that Washington "remains prepared to act if we must," if the U.N. Security Council failed to act on Syria.

Votel said the best way to deter Russia, which backs Assad, was through political and diplomatic channels.

"Certainly if there are other things that are considered, you know, we will do what we are told. ... (But) I don't recommend that at this particular point," Votel said, in an apparent to reference to military options.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham asked whether it was too strong to say that with Russia and Iran's help, Assad had "won" the civil war in Syria.

"I do not think that is too strong of a statement," Votel said.

Graham also asked if the United States' policy on Syria was still to seek the removal of Assad from power.

"I don't know that that's our particular policy at this particular point. Our focus remains on the defeat of ISIS," Votel said, using an acronym for Islamic State. "  Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-18/us-centcom-chief-comes-clean-generals-three-stunning-admissions-mid-east

-----------------

Votel would never say anything like this if he were not in agreement with Mattis and Dunford.  This is illustrative of a weakening of Israeli/AIPAC/Saudi  influence in US Middle East policy.  It will be interesting to see if Votel is rebuked for these statements.  pl

 

Syria Report - 17 March 2018

In the ongoing battles around Damascus it seems more and more clear to me that the Syrian Government is consolidating its position in its heartlands in anticipation of an armistice negotiated by the Russians, an armistice that may last for years as the government and the rebels (now mostly jihadis) gather their strength for a renewal of the conflict toward a final result that will result in annihilation of one side.  The East Gouta pocket is being sliced up apace by the SAA.  The western part of the pocket is a built up urban area while the eastern area is farmland and villages.  The SAA chose to go into Gouta from the east and are now evacuating civilians from the remaining jihadi held urban areas in the west of the pocket.  10,000 are reported to have been evacuated thus far.  They are assisted in this by the Russian military police.  The evacuees are leaving by moving east through the farmland rather than west through metropolitan Damascus.  There have been numerous demonstrations in favor of the government in the rebel/jihadi held areas of Gouta.  This has been little reported in Western media.

The continuing US policy of regime change in Syria leaves little possibility that the government can recover Syria east and north of the Euphrates River. That land is under US government "protection."  How the movement of (US) Kurds to Afrin to fight will affect that is unpredictable.

As SST forecast just after the fall of Aleppo City to the government, Idlib Province has become a cancerous wound in the side of the possibility of a fully re-united Syria.  The Turks are taking advantage of their burgeoning relationship with Russia to eradicate Kurdish control of Afrin district in Aleppo Province.  The Turks are making steady progress in this effort.  The evolving tie to Russia is evident in the S-400 SAM deal and Russia seems complicit in the "Olive Branch" campaign.  There are clearly limits to Russian protection of the SAG.  The Turks have now established "observation posts" of company size all along the eastern border of Idlib Province.  These are positioned to impede a renewed advance of  R+6 into Idlib Province once SAA and friends are finished in the Damascus area.    The latest of these posts is now being placed just NW of Aleppo so as to prevent an advance by the government to the west into northern Aleppo Province.  IMO what we are seeing is a slow motion annexation of NW Syria by Turkey.  Tayyip Erdogan seems to want to be remembered as Fatih Sultan Tayyip.  Would the SAG be strong enough to fight Turkey in Idlib?  That is an open question.

The Russian MoD says that the US is planning cruise missile attacks on Syria in response to a putative gas attack in the Gouta area.  This is somewhat amusing  given the recent capture of a jihadi chlorine gas factory in East Gouts, but, we will see.  pl  

 https://southfront.org/syrian-army-advances-reportedly-liberates-two-more-towns-evacuates-thousands-of-civilians-in-eastern-ghouta-map-photos/

https://southfront.org/overview-of-battle-for-afrin-on-march-17-2018-map-video-photo/

https://southfront.org/turkish-army-is-establishing-new-observation-post-north-of-aleppo-city-video/

https://southfront.org/u-s-deploys-naval-strike-groups-for-attacks-on-syria-trains-militants-for-false-flag-chemical-attacks/

Looks like Mattis is the grown up in the room

(Editorial Comment)

This is a very young Mike Pompeo when he was a first year cadet at West Point in 1983.  He concentrated his study there in Mechanical Engineering and graduated first in his class.  By the time he graduated the war in VN was long over.  He served just enough time to repay his service debt to the army, then resigned his commission to go to law school.  So, he never served in combat.  War is an abstraction to him.  In other words, this is probably a game for Pompeo, a power game played on a global map board.

DJT in announcing Pompeo's nomination to the WH lawn press corps stressed that he and Pompeo had "great chemistry" and that they share the same view of the world.  In other words, Pompeo never disagrees with Trump.    Pompeo is well known for his hard line anti-Iranian views and his unshakable sympathy for Israel.  DJT professes the same views.

At the UN Nikki Haley has now specifically threatened Syria and Russia with attack if the Syrian government does not halt its offensive in East Gouta and the Yarmouk camp. Both are near Damascus.  These two places are mainly defended by jihadis, the largest group of which is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, the Al-Qa'ida branch in Syria.  You remember Al Qa'ida.  They were the people who attacked us on 9/11.  Her threat is for retaliation for use of chemical weapons (chlorine)or just plain old "inhuman suffering" inflicted on the "Syrian People."  This does not seem an idle threat given the number of times she has repeated it.  Someone is telling her to say this.  Haley has cabinet rank and does not answer to the State Department.  My guess is that she is listening closely to AIPAC and the neocons like John Bolton.

At the same time Russia has made it clear that they will fight to protect their ally and interests in Syria.  They have been quite plain spoken about that and they included both US aircraft and ships in the threat.  I note that the Admiral Essen, a Russian missile shooting frigate sortied from Sebastopol today.

I think that Pompeo's nomination and his eventual confirmation brings the world closer to a US-Russia war.  If that happens it will be difficult if not impossible to keep the war from escalating toward the use of nuclear weapons.  Israel wants war, a wrecking war with Iran.  Israel wants the US to win that war for Israel.  IMO Israel would be wrecked in such a war whatever the outcome.  This is an August, 1914 moment.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-tillerson-ousted-20180313-story.html 

SYRIA LEAKS: SUITES, PROPAGANDA AND DIVIDENDS (presented by Publius Tacitus)

Let's be clear. I did not write the following article. I came across this article (in French) that, in my opinion, is a must read. It is published at http://prochetmoyen-orient.ch/syrieleaks-suites-propagande-et-dividendes/ by Richard Labévière.

It is a good reminder of how much propaganda is being pushed in the west to portray the Syrians and Russians and Iranians as evil beasts while touting America as a band of angels. The author of the following piece reminds us that after World War II the United States knowingly and happily recruited and relied on Nazis who played a direct role in the murder of thousands of Jews. One of those was Klaus Barbie, the butcher of Lyon. Anyway, please enjoy the following.

Beirut, February 26, 2017.

At the request of several readers and listeners, we return to our "exclusive information" of last week (19 February 2018), published by prochetmoyen-orient.ch (number 166): "Syrieleaks: a British diplomatic cable unveils Western strategy ".

It is the legendary Pierre Lazareff who said that "for a journalist, to release an exclusivity is always a test, if not a pain". And the boss of France-Soir did not yet know the digital networks (misnamed "social networks"), Fake News and future laws on Fake News ...

 

Syria's probable future

(editorial comment)

It seems to me that what is coming is a de facto partition of Syria.   I doubt if there is an actual understanding or agreement on the subject but the actions of the players indicate that they comprehend what the outcome will be if present trends and actions continue.

IMO the SAG should have re-captured Idlib Province in the period immediately following their victory at Aleppo.  The jihadist enemy was then on the run, disorganized and demoralized by defeat.  The correlation of forces was very much in the government's favor. This did not happen.

Instead the SAG went east from Aleppo City to secure water and electric energy supplies for the re-construction of Aleppo.  Success led to further and further exploitation to the east and the opportunity was lost to re-take the province.  Whether or not the government still has the means or the will, or enough Russian support to re-capture the province is debatable.  The Turks are busy conquering the Afrin district.  Can anyone seriously doubt that they will succeed in the end?  When that happens we will see an effective barrier against government control established farther south by Turkish forces closing up on their "observation posts" in Idlib Province.  These OPs are IMO positioned to impede the SAA.

On the line of the Euphrates River a de facto frontier has already emerged between government control to the south and US/SDF to the north and east of the stream.  Evidently the US intends to discourage a SAG/SDF reconciliation in the hope of maintaining  the dream of eventual destruction of the Damascus government.  The enclave around al-Tanf on the Jordanian border is yet further indication of American desire to impeded and embarrass SAG efforts to re-consolidate power.  I think the US will cling to that enclave "until the last dog dies."  (American modismo).  What will be the administrative center of the US protectorate on the other side of the Euphrates?  Will it be the former IS capital in the damaged city of Raqqa?  Will the denizens of that be-deviled place see a proliferation of KFC and McDonald's.  If so, will the franchisees be Chinese?  The US is leaving Iraq, diverting forces to the unwinnable war in Afghanistan.  Iraqi politics will encourage that departure.  When that happens the US will be in possession of a landlocked territory in eastern Syria that is inhabited by people who don't like us very much even if necessity has made them our allies.

The SAG has massed a significant percentage of its mobile forces to capture the jihadi stronghold of East Ghouta.  The preparatory fires have naturally excited the jihadis who hold the area and their media allies in the US and Europe.  I expect that this size force will do an adequate job of jihadi cleansing in the near future and then move on to browner pastures.  With the prospect of having to govern a rump Syria under Russian, Iranian and Chinese tutelage, the SAG will probably move to clean up the several rebel held pockets aligned north to south from the Jordanian border to north of Hama City.

Will the Syrian government acknowledge the loss of its territories?  They will not.  pl

A Plethora of Events in Northwest Syria - TTG

A plethora of events have hit this corner of Syria in the last week in addition to the grinding Turkish-FSA offensive in Afrin. That offensive has continued to nibble at the border areas and is now in a position to lay siege to the city of Rajou. Erdogan is feeling his oats. Speaking in his parliment on 13 February, Erdogan responded to continued US support for the Rojava Kurds and a CENTCOM spokesman’s recent threat to thwart any Turkish attack on Manbij.

“It is clear that those who say ‘we will respond aggressively if you hit us’ have never experienced an Ottoman slap,” Erdoğan told his AKP deputies in parliament. “We will destroy every terrorist we have seen, starting with the ones standing by their side. Then they will understand that it is better for them to not to stand alongside the terrorists.”  

This talk made a definite impression on the Trump administration, if not on the distracted President himself. On 14 February SecDef Mattis and Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli met during a NATO Defense Ministerial meeting in Brussels. A DOD spokeseman said they met to reassure the longstanding relationship between the two allies. This was followed by a meeting in Ankara between H.R. McMaster and his Turkish counterpart. Tillerson then met with Erdogan without a State Department interpreter. In an unusual move, Tillerson relied on a Turkish government interpreter. This was a mistake. I think Tillerson was played by Erdogan. After this meeting, Tillerson explained:

“We want to coordinate how to stabilize areas together and who will occupy those areas. And the objective and intent is to return these villages, these cities back to the composition of people who were there before they were overrun by Daesh. So we’re going to address Manbij first. It’s one of the first areas we’re going to work on. The United States made commitments to Turkey previously. We’ve not completed fulfilling those commitments. Through the working group we’re going to address that, and Manbij is going to receive priority.”

This sounds like Tillerson promised to keep YPG/SDF forces east of the Euphrates as was promised long before the YPG offensive to take Manbij back in 2016. This can’t play well among the YPG fighters, YPD political leaders and the Kurds of Afrin. This is evident in the recent YPG pulling out of Deir Ezzor to reinforce Afrin, with the support of Damascus, leaving CENTCOM with the CIA trained, DOS funded former jihadis from IS and Al Qaeda called the Deir Ezzor MilitaryCouncil to confront both the IS and the SAA in Deir Ezzor.

There was another set of negotiations going on last week. Damascus and the Kurds were attempting to come to an agreement as to when the SAA will move into Afrin to defend the northern border of Syria and under what conditions that move will take place. The Kurdish position was that the SAA would only move to the northwest border with Turkey and act as border guards. Damascus wanted the full return of Afrin to SAR control and the disarmament of independent YPG forces. Kurdish fighters would become part of the SAA. The news of on-again-off-again agreements have been circulating for days. My guess is that the two sides are meeting somewhere in the middle. A Kurdish report (ANF) claimed that the Russians were initially obstructing these talks for some reason. Interesting, if true. The same sources, along with Elijah Magnier, claim the agreement talks about an eventual joint SAA-YPG operation to retake al-Bab and Jarabulus. Even more interesting. Al Masdar News reports NDF units from al-Safira are poised to enter Afrin within a few hours. I have no idea what other Syrian units might enter Afrin. The cream of the SAA is now concentrated outside Damascus to take the Ghouta pocket. Clearly any SAA military move into Afrin will be an economy of force move to forestall further Turkish incursions into Afrin and to separate the Kurds from CENTCOM and the Trump administration. It is a move of political finesse rather than military force.

Back on the ground, another ominous event is in motion. The Turks have sent several convoys into rural Idlib to establish positions that seem to be designed to block further SAA advances once the battle for Idlib recommences. There could be something to this. However, under the Astana Accords, Turkey is to establish a series of twelve monitoring centers throughout this part of Idlib. Given the recent advances of the SAA into the eastern part of Idlib, the prearranged locations of the monitoring centers do appear to be more a blocking action than a fulfillment of an agreement. The two maps below illustrate this conundrum. The one on the left shows the proposed Turkish zone in green, the Russian zone in blue and the Syrian zone in purple. The map on the right shows the current advances by the SAA into the Astana proposed de-escalation zone and the locations of the existing Turkish monitoring stations. I circled them for easier viewing. 

  

In conjunction with the establishment of these monitoring stations, Turkey resumed its financial support to the FSA and the Ahrar al-Sham Movement in northern Syria. This aid replaces the US program that was halted on 18 December 2017. Syrian experts expect that most of this new Turkish support will find its way to HTS and will be used to launch more attacks against the SAA in southern Idlib or northern Hama. These monitoring stations will be a convenient mechanism for coordinating the aid to the jihadis. They will have to be dealt with at some point in the future, Astana Accords or not.

TTG

Syria Notes - 8 february 2018

 

On February 7, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), backed up by the Russian Aerospace Forces, repelled a Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) attack on its positions in the southeastern Idlib countryside, according to Syrian pro-government sources. The SAA reportedly killed and injured several fighters of HTS and its allies during the clashes.

Additionally, Russian warplanes destroyed several headquarters and ammo depots of the so-called Free Idlib Army in the city of Maarrat al-Nu’man in the southern Idlib countryside, according to Syrian activists.

Syrian opposition sources revealed that thirteen Free Idlib Army fighters, including their general commander “Mohammad Abu Najib”, were killed in the Russian airstrikes on Maarrat al-Nu’man. Russian warplanes also destroyed more than four vehicles armed with anti-aircraft guns belonging to the group.  SF

----------------

 The SAA is rapidly eliminating jihadist forces in the East Hama pocket.  Bereft of a source of re-supply through encirclement the jihadis are being rapidly overrun and destroyed.  By the time of this writing that pocket may be altogether eliminated.  This will free up the forces involved to return to the attritional grinding process underway NW of Abu Duhur around the town of Tel Sultan.   The SAA made a decision to eliminate the East Hama pocket before continuing to the west into Idlib Province.  At their positions around Tel Sultan they had clearly gone past the culminating point of their drive to Abu Duhur and although they could have continued immediately, the risk of a sudden reversal brought on by exactly the kind of jihadi counter-attack now underway would have been great.   Wisely they decided to improve the odds in their favor and have reduced the East Hama pocket to their operational rear and are bringing up more logistical support before continuing into Idlib.  The wealth of air support available to them has been a great help in this.  When they re-commence forward movement I hope they share my view that a right hook to Al-Eis to roll up the jihadi flank south of the Aleppo City is the best course of action. pl

 https://southfront.org/syrian-army-repels-hts-attack-in-southeastern-idlib-russian-warplanes-wipe-out-fsa-ammo-depots-video/

*********

"A local militia was conducting reconnaissance actions in the area to detect and eliminate the ISIS cell when it was surprisingly shelled by mortars, rocket launched and then the US-led coalition’s attack helicopters. 25 militiamen were injured as a result of the attack."  SF

------------

It appears to me thus far that the "troops" attacked were NDF militia from the area.  They are likely to be Arab tribesmen, heavily trained and advised by IRGC Quds force people and supported by SAA artillery and and armor.  These Arab tribesman are undoubtedly very hostile to the presence of the Kurdish SDF this far south of traditional Kurdish haunts.   The US is pursuing an enduring role in Syria and had previously warned the Russians and through them the SAG that intrusions east of the Euphrates in Deir al-Zor Province would be met by force.  This does not bode well for future US/SAG relations.  US and Iranian hegemonic ambitions are nose to nose in Eastern Syria.  pl  

https://southfront.org/russian-military-us-led-coalition-struck-syrian-troops-conducting-operation-against-isis-cells-in-deir-ezzor-province/

*********

 "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has rejected the recent statement by the head of Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, regarding a potential meeting between Ankara and Damascus.

“What would we talk about with a murderer who has killed a million of his citizens,” Erdogan said in his address to mukhtars— heads of Turkish villages and neighbourhoods—at the presidential complex in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, as quoted by TRT World."  AMN

-----------

The sultan is pretending to be motivated by concern for the Syrian peoples.  Nonsense.  He sees the opportunity to weaken Syria in pursuit of some future de facto annexations in northern Syria.    Unfortunately for him the TSK is not doing well in establishing "facts on the ground" to support such ambitions.  At the same time, the Turks are positioning small bodies of troops at Al-Eis, Idlib City and Saraqib supposedly to implement the Russian/Iranian/Turkish de-escalation agreement on Idlib Province but IMO their real purpose is to obstruct SAG recovery of the province.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/erdogan-refuses-talks-assad-calls-murderer-million-citizens/

Syria Notes - 5 February 2018

 

1.  Nikki Haley is either completely gullible or is in thrall to some collection of Borgists at State. Someone remarked of a previous US Secretary of State that "if only he were still alive this would not happen."  Unfortunately he was still alive and in office.  Much the same could be said of Rex Tillerson.  Haley is now tub thumping for US air attacks on Syria.  This a reprise of several previous US assertions of Syrian Arab Government (SAG) use of chemical weapons including the East Ghouta and Khan Sheikhoun fiascos.  After Khan Sheikhoun the SAG invited US and UN investigations of the air base but somehow this was not accepted.  Now James Mattis is asserting that the SAG is manufacturing chemical munitions although the US has no evidence of this as yet.  I believe this is called "confirmation bias?"

2.  As shown above , the SAA is committed to elimination of the East Idlib pocket.  The jihadis are without re-supply and will progressively be running out of the means of resistance.  This should not take too long and is actually a good idea before proceeding further into Idlib Province to the west.  I believe I expressed an opinion as to the wisdom of such a move.

3.  The SAA has begun shelling the Turkish strong point (observation post) at Al-Eis.  The Turks have been attempting tricky cleverness by claiming that they are occupying the hill at Al--Eis un accord with a Russian/Iranian/Turkish de-escalation igreement.  In fact IMO they are seeking to position themselves so as to impede SAG liberation of Idlib Province.  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-looses-artillery-fire-turkish-forces-south-aleppo-casualties-reported/

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-liberates-4-villages-from-isis-in-northeastern-hama-map/

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/nikki-haley-russia-syria-chemical-weapons-390811

Roll them up like a window shade ...

"Amid ongoing offensive operations by the Syrian Arab Army and allied paramilitary groups against Islamist militias in the southern countryside of Aleppo province, elite troops have taken control of yet another town as they eye-out a possible advance towards the rebel stronghold of Al-Eis.

Military-affiliated sources report that forces of the Syrian Army’s Republican Guard have seized from armed rebel groups the town of Tal Mamu in the last hour after kicking-off another day off offensive operations in southern Idlib."  AMN

-------------

 IMO the correct move by the Syrians just now is to turn right with their main forces and roll up the jihadis who are now facing east south of Aleppo City.  This should collapse the whole jihadi force west of Khanassar and south of Aleppo City and lead to a rapid liberation of the province.  Screening forces should be left to "cover" Saraqib and the left flank SE of Saraqib.  I have looked at the hill at Al-Eis just north of the town of the same name and it does not seem to be a great obstacle.  It can be heavily bombarded with preparatory aerial fires and then attacked from several directions by mobile forces.

The Turks are there?  This would be a good opportunity to force them to back away.  pl  

 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-boots-islamist-militias-key-town-south-aleppo-elite-troops-eye-strategic-rebel-stronghold/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flanking_maneuver

 

 

Clausewitz would approve ...

"This map provides a general look at the military situation in the area of Abu al-Duhur. The Syrian Arab Army and its allies have been working to secure their recent gains in eastern Idlib, including the town of Abu al-Duhur and the Abu al-Duhur airbase. As soon as this is done, government forces will be able to clear the remaining militant-held pocket in northeastern Hama."  sf

----------

A few days ago I wrote that the SAA and friends should be careful not to charge impetuously forward into Idlib Province west of Abu Duhur until the situation in the east Idlib pocket is cleaned up and the force has enough time to recover its logistics and to rest the troops.  My judgment was and is that the sustained exertions of the SAA has brought the SAA and allies to a Clausewitzian "culminating point." and that further immediate major advances although they might succeed would require a level of risk that is unnecessary.  A brief pause for consolidation and reconstitution of the victorious force is wise.

At the same time  a different and smaller SAA force will begin an advance from SW Aleppo Province toward the besieged Shia villages just north of Idlib City.  pl

 

https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/25jan_Abu_al-Duhur_Operation_Syria_War_Map.jpg?x76537

 

"BOOK 7  •  CHAPTER 5

Culminating Point of the Attack

THE success of the attack is the result of a present superiority of force, it being understood that the moral as well as physical forces are included. In the preceding chapter we have shown that the power of the attack gradually exhausts itself; possibly at the same time the superiority may increase, but in most cases it diminishes. The assailant buys up prospective advantages which are to be turned to account hereafter in negotiations for peace; but, in the meantime, he has to pay down on the spot for them a certain amount of his military force. If a preponderance on the side of the attack, although thus daily diminishing, is still maintained until peace is concluded, the object is attained.—There are strategic attacks which have led to an immediate peace—but such instances are rare; the majority, on the contrary, lead only to a point at which the forces remaining are just sufficient to maintain a defensive, and to wait for peace.—Beyond that point the scale turns, there is a reaction; the violence of such a reaction is commonly much greater than the force of the blow. This we call the culminating point of the attack.— As the object of the attack is the possession of the enemy's territory, it follows that the advance must continue till the superiority is exhausted; this cause, therefore, impels us towards the ultimate object, and may easily lead us beyond it.—If we reflect upon the number of the elements of which an equation of the forces in action is composed, we may conceive how difficult it is in many cases to determine which of two opponents has the superiority on his side. Often all hangs on the silken thread of imagination.

Everything then depends on discovering the culminating point by the fine tact of judgment. Here we come upon a seeming contradiction. The defence is stronger than the attack; therefore we should think that the latter can never lead us too far, for as long as the weaker form remains strong enough for what is required, the stronger form ought to be still more so."  Clausewitz 

http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/OnWar1873/BK7ch05.html#a

Afrin Update - TTG

It’s damned difficult to figure out what’s happening with Operation Olive Branch since both, or I should say all, sides are expending considerable energy in controlling the narrative. In other words we are wading through a pond of bullshit.

The Turks and their FSA allies appear to have made slow progress into Afrin over the last few days. The YPG has also been able to launch a few successful counterattacks, but the weight of Turkish air and artillery strikes will inevitably take its toll. One YPG action I found significant was an attack at Daret Izza in the southwest corner of Afrin Canton. This is close to the a main Turkish entry point into Idlib Canton and the location of a Turkish military base. Time will tell if this is a forlorn hope or not.

The most significant development is the widening of the Turkish attacks beyond Afrin to the rest of the Turkish-Rojava border. Several of these artillery and air strikes are quite close to the CJTF-OIR bases near Qamishli and Kobani. Turkish troops and armor are also massing along this border. My guess is that Turkey’s ambition extends far beyond Afrin. Militarily that makes sense, but it definitely increases the pucker factor among all the players. All this while the CENTCOM Commander, General Votel, was visiting Raqqa telling the world the US was going to be in Syria for the forseeable future. Well, what are you going to do now, Ranger?

Here’s a few excerpts from the coverage of the developing situation.

TTG

*********************

On January 22, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) opened a new front against Kurdish militias east of Afrin and captured Birsaya Mount. This mount overlooks the town of Sharanli and the northeastern flank of Afrin. However, by the evening Turkey-led forces retreated from it after the FSA had abandoned its positions due to a YPG counter-attack.

On January 23, the TAF and the FSA launched another advance on Birsaya Mount. If they are able to secure it, Turkish forces will likely advance on Sharanli and then make an attempt to link with its positions in Ash Shaykh Khurus where they had achieved notable progress.

According to Turkish media, 6,400 service members are involved in Ankara’s military operation in Afrin.  (SouthFront)

*********************

BEIRUT, LEBANON (12:30 A.M.) [23 Jan] – Minutes ago, the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG) launched a surprise assault on the rebel stronghold of Daret ‘Izza in west Aleppo.

According to a local report from Aleppo, the YPG forces attacked Daret ‘Izza from its western axis, capturing a number of points near the Sama’an Castle. Intense clashes are still ongoing at the moment, as the YPG remains on the offensive in Daret ‘Izza.

The YPG offensive at Daret ‘Izza comes just hours after the Turkish-led Euphrates Shield forces attempted to capture the historical Mount Simeon, which is located northwest of the rebel stronghold.  (Al Masdar News)

*********************

BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:20 A.M.) [24 Jan] – The Turkish Army and their rebel allies launched another big assault in the Afrin Canton, Tuesday, targeting the northern part of this important region in northern Aleppo. According to pro-opposition media, the Turkish Army and their allies began the day by recapturing the town of Adamanli and its surrounding hilltops.

Following the capture of Adamanli, the Turkish Army and their allies managed to capture town of ‘Umar Ushagi near the Rajou axis in the northern part of the Afrin Canton. The Turkish Armed Forces would end the day by recapturing the strategic mountaintop of Jabal Barsaya after a fierce battle with the Kurdish-led People’s Protection Units (YPG).  (Al Masdar News)

*********************

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-january-23-2018-u-s-proposes-turkey-to-establish-security-zone-in-afrin/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-forces-capture-several-areas-northern-afrin-fierce-battle-ypg-map/

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/01/turkish-forces-claim-victory-syrian-kurds-afrin.html

Leave the mouth of the bag open.

 

"Overnight on January 17, ISIS units attacked positions of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies south of the Abu al-Duhur airbase from the eastern direction aiming to reach the key village of Sinjar.

Initially, anti-government sources claimed that ISIS had been able to capture some points from the SAA, but these claims were not confirmed by any photo or video evidence yet. Later, the ISIS-linked news agency Amaq confirmed that the advance took place and said that ISIS had captured some positions in the area.

Right now, clashes are ongoing there. Thus, ISIS and “moderate opposition” groups attacking the SAA from the western direction de-facto cooperate against government forces in eastern Idlib."  SF

--------

Well, pilgrims, R+6 should think of this as an opportunity rather than a setback.    Here we have IS (now largely ex FSA unicorns) and HTS cooperating against R+6 in counter-attacks against the nearly complete envelopment east of Sinjar.

A possible program seriatim:

1.  Defeat the counter-attacks.  Fight hard.

2.  Don't close the mouth of the bag in the encirclement.

3.  Push on the sides of the "bag" to get IS and HTS moving toward a hope of escape in Idlib.

4.  Pound the "escapees" mercilessly with air and artillery.

5.  Be happy in your work.  pl  

https://southfront.org/isis-attacks-syrian-army-south-of-abu-al-duhur-airbase-seeks-to-reach-sinjar-map/

Idlib update - 14 january 2017

" This map provides a general look at the current results of the Syrian Army’s advance in eastern Idlib, northern Hama and southern Aleppo. Government forces have liberated a large number of villages in the aforementioned areas and now are working to clear the militant-held pocket northwest of Khanasir. Seprately, the Tiger Forces are working to repel counter-attacks by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and to establish control over the strategic Abu al-Duhur airbase."  SF

--------------

 This is impressive stuff.  R+6 are carving up the Greater Idlib Pocket like a Thanksgiving turkey.  I see that a spokesman for the Kurdish SDF/YPG says that Kurdish forces will enter Idlib to participate in the destruction of HTS and friends.  It seems clear to me that the Kurds will fight on the government side if they enter the fight in Idlib.   This must really be a disppointment to CENTCOM.  pl 

https://southfront.org/map-update-current-results-of-syrian-armys-advance-in-eastern-idlib-northern-hama-and-southern-aleppo/

A coupla things ...

1.  A couple of Border Patrol/ICE people tell me that the US does not effectively charge an entry fee to non-US citizen individuals seeking to enter the US legally across the southern border.  The point made by these border and immigration professionals is that the money would enable the construction and installation of more and better border barrier systems.  They make the point that where border barrier systems have been installed the flow of illegal migrants is much reduced.  Mexico evidently collects such a fee in the San Diego sector.  My question for the lawyers is whether or not such a fee would be legal if put in place under an EO or would this require legislation?

2.  We now have had Obama Derangement Syndrome (ODS),  Clinton Derangement Syndrome (CDS),  Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS),  and United States Derangement Syndrome (USDS).  I propose yet another Derangement Syndrome.  This would be the Russia/Iran Derangement Syndrome (RIDS).  In this syndrome now prominent on both sides of the political divide, the Russia of Pushkin, Turgenev, Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, etc. disappears to be replaced altogether by Ivan the Terrible, Lenin, Stalin and the Soviet Union writ large to condemn Russia in our minds to the status of crafty inherently hostile barbarians.   Well, pilgrims, maybe it ain't so!  Ukraine?  Are we really solidly behind a coup generated government of Nazi sympathizers in Kiev?  Are we really?  Is there really evidence that Russian Army troops are fighting in eastern Ukraine?  Is there? Or is this claim just another example of Borgist (foreign policy establishment) information operations?  Do we still remember that the Crimea was for centuries an integral part of Russia, not the Ukraine, until Khruschev, a Ukrainian, arbitrarily gave Crimea to the Ukraine.  The Russians took it back?  What a surprise.  What a surprise!  That doesn't fit with the "rules based world order?"  Well, maybe there is something wrong with the rules that the Borg loves so much.  Russia intervened in Syria to prevent a  jihadi/Gulfy/Israeli/US handover of the country to the grip of a salafi satrapi of Saudi Arabia?  Well, God bless them!

3. The Borg evidently thinks it bestrides the world as the standard bearer of the aforementioned "rules," commanding from the imperial capital on the Tiber/Potomac.  A reminder of this "thought," is the statement today in the corporate media that the US "ordered" Soleimani, the IRGC Quds force commander (foreign interventions) not to leave Iran and he has had the effrontery to visit Moscow.  Tell me pilgrims, what is the sense of such a statement.  How is Soleimani a terrorist?  He carries out his country's foreign policy as do our people for US policy.  His men worked with Iraqi insurgents to fight us during our adventure in country building?  Mathis, McMaster and all that crew are so deeply embittered by war that they cannot see the foolishness of that?  They should grow up.  "We fought them and they fought us."  Germany, Japan, Spain, etc.?  Come on!  Grow up!

4.  Pelosi appears to me to be demented.

5.  "Shithole?"  Well, SWMBO and I have lived and visited in many a "shithole."  Haiti, Salvador, Yemen, and any number of African dumps closely resemble that description.  Rude?  Yes, certainly, but he is the "hard hat" president.  IMO most Americans agree with him on this. 

6.  A lot of the newer, younger people on Foxnews' air appear to be making their reportage into the new CNN.  pl

A back handed compliment

  In this this parody of events in Syria, "Hitler" tells his generals that they are being laughed at by Buzzpineapple and the Turcopole.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=CW_VOeMcVWo

OK.  Now Publius Tacitus has found a utube link to the deleted tweet.  pl

Trump Pressures Islamabad - TTG

Last Monday our President kicked off the public phase of his administration’s effort to modify the behavior of Pakistan with his “go to” tool of state power… the tweet.

“The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”

I'm of two minds. Either he's trying to bully Pakistan into doing more against the Taliban and Haqqani Network or he's trying to force them into closing off our access to Afghanistan so we have no choice but to leave. The first possibility is a forlorn hope. The second would be diabolically clever.

Let’s examine the first option. It is consistent with USG policy since 9/11. At that time the Bush administration issued Pakistan an ultimatum. You either assist us in Afghanistan or we will destroy you. Although our objectives in Afghanistan have shifted over the last sixteen years, our nagging complaint that Pakistan is not doing enough to help us has remained constant. I’m sure the Pentagon and Borgists the world over are hoping that Trump’s blustering and bullying style will intimidate Pakistan into submission and, thus, ensuring our ultimate victory in Afghanistan… whatever that entails. 

I don’t see any chance of this working. Yes the money is good, but the constant abuse emanating from Washington has been wearing on leadership in Islamabad and on the Pakistani street. They’re sick of it. Imran Khan, who will probably be the next prime minister in Islamabad, has called for Pakistan to walk away from the US and forge an alliance with China, Russia and Iran. China is certainly willing to take up the slack. They won’t be as generous as the US has been, but the aid will come without the condescending lectures. Russia may be interested. Iran may also be interested just to get us and our coalition out of their backyard. 

How serious is Washington about playing chicken with Islamabad? When Rand Paul suggested that the money would be better spent on US infrastructure, Trump tweeted, “Good idea Rand!” That will be a popular idea for all Americans outside of the Borg. If this idea, and bill, gains traction, it will be hard to walk back. Although Mattis has said he is not worried about Pakistani threats of closing the roads into Afghanistan, he is worried about the closing of Pakistani airspace. That would put our forces and the Afghan army we’re still trying to create in a serious bind. Although our footprint and logistical requirements are smaller than they were years ago, the Afghan army we are creating is highly dependent on a continuous flow of Western military materiel. We no longer have the Manas Air Base as we did when we temporarily lost access to our LOCs in Pakistan in 2010. And, ironically, Russia may not be as willing to bail us out this time. I get the feeling we are trying to play chicken with a bridge abutment.

The other possibility is that Trump truly is diabolically clever and is executing a grand con on the Borg. He may be deliberately steering our current Afghan policy into that bridge abutment so that we are forced to withdraw from the area. He may not be a very stable genius, but he is a first class bullshit artist and skilled con man. That’s what it would take to pull something like this off.

Frankly I don’t care if this is due to a diabolical cleverness or an act worthy of Jubilation T. Cornpone. If it results in the US leaving Afghanistan, I’m all for it.

TTG

Recommended Reading:

US suspends about $2 billion security assistance to Pakistan

US Military Weighs Options In Case Pakistan Blocks Afghan Supply Lines

Pakistan attacks US for cutting military aid

U.S. weighs Pakistani blowback as it piles pressure on Islamabad

Trump cannot afford breaking off ties with Pakistan: NYT

China may be looking to exploit a US move to cut aid to Pakistan

Looks Like FBI or McCain May Have Paid for the 17th Report of the Steele Dossier by Publius Tacitus

Looks like the FBI is in big trouble thanks to John McCain. They may have paid Christopher Steele, either directly or through Fusion GPS, for the 16th report of the now infamous Steele Dossier. If you have not been paying attention, there were 17 reports in the Steele Dossier--the first is dated 20 June 2016 and the last is dated 13 December 2016. Only one problem. The Clinton campaign only paid for 16 of the 17 reports. Their contract with Fusion GPS ran until the end of October 2016:

Marc E. Elias, a lawyer representing the Clinton campaign and the DNC, retained Fusion GPS, a Washington firm, to conduct the research.

After that, Fusion GPS hired dossier author Christopher Steele, a former British intelligence officer with ties to the FBI and the U.S. intelligence community, according to those people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Elias and his law firm, Perkins Coie, retained the company in April 2016 on behalf of the Clinton campaign and the DNC. Before that agreement, Fusion GPS’s research into Trump was funded by an unknown Republican client during the GOP primary.

The Clinton campaign and the DNC, through the law firm, continued to fund Fusion GPS’s research through the end of October 2016, days before Election Day.

Fusion GPS gave Steele’s reports and other research documents to Elias, the people familiar with the matter said. It is unclear how or how much of that information was shared with the campaign and the DNC and who in those organizations was aware of the roles of Fusion GPS and Steele. One person close to the matter said the campaign and the DNC were not informed by the law firm of Fusion GPS’s role.

Now enter John McCain. After Trump won the election, McCain got a hold of the 15 reports in the dossier:

Iran to Syria route is open now.

 

"The first Iranian military convoy crossed into Syria coming from Iraq through the Tell al-Badi crossing during this week, the UK-based news outlet the New Arab reported on December 16.

A senior Iraqi official told the New Arab that the Iranian military convoy consisted of 20 covered trucks carrying an unknown load. The official added that the convoy was escorted by fighters and commanders of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iraqi Hezbollah and Hezbollah al-Nujaba.

“A convoy of 20 mud-covered, unmarked vehicles crossed into Syria after being let through checkpoints manned by the PMU … The cars were transporting Iranian and Iraqi forces to fight alongside the Assad regime. I believe this could signal the activation of the long-planned Tehran-Damascus road,” the Iraqi official told the New Arab.

If these claims are true, this can be considered as a huge achievement for Iran and its allies, mainly Lebanese Hezbollah. For the last four years, Iran was shipping weapons and ammunition to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Hezbollah through an air route. This method allowed Israel to identify, track and target Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah easily, as only few cargo airplanes land in Syrian airports every day.

However, now Israel will be incapable of identifying any Iranian shipment on the new ground route, as it will be used by thousands of Iraq and Syrian companies on daily basis in the upcoming months. Experts believe that this will give Hezbollah and the SAA a huge advantage over Israel and will allow Iran to increase its supplies to its allies."  SF

---------------

Israeli air attacks against vehicles moving from Iran to Syria along this route, but it is a mighty victory for Iranian strategy in the region.  An alternative route for commercial traffic will be through the Jordanian panhandle and across the  border in the Daraa area.  pl

https://southfront.org/first-iranian-military-convoy-enters-syria-through-land-route-from-iraq-reports/

Waiting for the punch in the mouth - TTG

Back in 1987 a reporter interviewed Mike Tyson about his upcoming fight with Evander Holyfield. The reporter asked Mike if he was worried about Evander and his fight plan. Mike famously replied,”Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” That thought came to mind when I read the latest plan articulated by a Pentagon spokesman for our military forces in eastern Syria.

***********************

“WASHINGTON—The Pentagon plans to keep some U.S. forces in Syria indefinitely, even after a war against the Islamic State extremist group formally ends, to take part in what it describes as ongoing counterterrorism operations, officials said. There are approximately 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria, along with an unspecified number of contractors supporting them. Last month, the U.S. military withdrew 400 Marines from Syria, which U.S. forces first entered in the fall of 2016.

Officials earlier this week disclosed the plans for an open-ended commitment, known as a “conditions-based” presence. That is the same approach the Trump administration is taking in Afghanistan. “The United States will sustain a conditions-based military presence in Syria to combat the threat of terrorist-led uncertainty, prevent the resurgence of ISIS, and to stabilize liberated areas,” Army Col. Rob Manning, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters Wednesday.

U.S. defense officials stressed there would be no large, permanent bases in Syria of the kind the U.S. maintains in places like Germany and South Korea. Instead, troops will be assigned to smaller bases and outposts. In some instances, troops will deploy temporarily from other bases in the region for specific missions, one of the defense officials said. It isn’t clear how many forces would stay in the country.

The Pentagon has said the forces will target parts of Syria that aren’t fully governed by either regime or rebel forces. The military says it has the legal authority to remain there. “Operating under recognized international authorities, the U.S. military will continue to support local partner forces in Syria to stabilize liberated territory,” Col. Manning said.”  (WSJ)

***********************

This “conditions based” presence sounds like a new way of saying we plan on staying in Syria indefinitely just like we plan on staying in Afghanistan and Iraq indefinitely… or at least until we get punched in the mouth. Not much of a plan as far as I'm concerned.

Not long ago CIA Director Pompeo sent a secret letter to the IRGC’s General Soleimani reportedly to warn him not to attack US or Coalition forces in Syria or Iraq. Soleimani did not open the letter. It’s existence was reported by Press TV. Soleimani later sent his own not so secret message to the CJTF-OIR Commander.

***********************

“Brigadier General Haj Qassem Soleimani sent a verbal letter, via Russia, to the head of the US forces commander in Syria, advising him to pull out all US forces to the last soldier “or the doors of hell will open up”.

“My message to the US military command: when the battle against ISIS (the Islamic State group) will end, no American soldier will be tolerated in Syria. I advise you to leave by your own will or you will be forced to it”, said Soleimani to a Russian officer. Soleimani asked the Russian responsible to expose the Iranian intentions towards the US: that they will be considered as forces of occupation if these decide to stay in north-east Syria where Kurds and Arab tribes cohabit together.”  (Elijah J. Magnier)

***********************

To add to the CJTF-OIR Commander’s concerns, the leader of an Iraqi PMU militia, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, declared that “Trump’s stupid decision” to hand Jerusalem to the Israelis is “a legitimate reason to target American forces.”  In Aleppo the Liwa al-Quds Brigade rallied in protest to Trump’s decision on Jerusalem. As the full reaction to Trump’s decision develops, our forces will end up surrounded by hostiles with no friends in sight. As Magnier surmises, Trump may be setting our troops up for a repeat of the events of 1983 Beirut. Now that would be a punch in the mouth.

TTG

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-remain-in-syria-indefinitely-pentagon-officials-say-1512752450

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/12/09/qassem-soleimanis-letter-to-the-us-leave-syria-or-else-could-al-hasaka-2018-become-beirut-1983/

Jerusalem update - 10 December 2017

The US decision to give Israel the title deed to ALL of Jerusalem without diplomatic recompense will look worse and worse as time passes.  The street demonstrations breaking out in places like Beirut and Amman are just the beginning of the process of condemnation.  Almost every country in Europe has condemned the action.  The Arab League has condemned the action.  This will put the Arab states in the position of having to make basic decisions about their relations with Israel (Egypt and Jordan) and the US.  In the case of Jordan and Egypt large amounts of free money from the US and Saudi Arabia will be at stake but ... Russia, China and many European companies stand in the wings waiting to expand their influence and activity.  At the same time Sultan Tayyip Erdogan has invited the OIC to convene in Turkey to consider the Islamic World's reaction to Trump's gift to Israel.  Trump apparently decided to do this on the basis of the counsel of his Zionist son-in law acting on behalf of Likudniks who IMO want nothing more than an Israel from the sea to the Jordan River that is Arab free except for a suitable population of helots.   It has been interesting this Sunday morning to watch Jake Tapper ask Nikki Haley how it is that this land deal will promote a settlement.  She smiled a secretive smile redolent of private meetings and knowledge.   We have spoken to both sides she said and you will see that we have restored motion to the process.  Tapper pressed her on this and she could only say that Tapper will understand what a great policy change this is.  He was unconvinced.  IMO Trump, urged on by Kushner, believes that the Palestinians, have no recourse and that having been beaten like dogs will accept anything.  pl 

 http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/239095

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5164435/Turkish-President-Erdogan-calls-Israel-terrorist-state.html

 

Mueller Charges Against Flynn Exonerate Trump of Russian Collusion by Publius Tacitus

The news of Mike Flynn's plea agreement with special prosecutor Robert Mueller was trumpeted on the media as if Flynn had admitted to killing Kennedy or had unprotected sex with Vladimir Putin. But once I took time to read the actual agreement I realized, not surprisingly, the the media lynch mob was blinded by hatred and unwilling to think objectively or fairly about the matter. The evidence exonerates Donald Trump of  having colluded with the Russians but does expose Michael Flynn as a man of terrible judgment when it comes to talking to the FBI. There was nothing that Flynn did with the Russians that was wrong or improper. 

Here are the key details for you to judge for yourself:

STATEMENT OF THE OFFENSE (link)

Pursuant to Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 11, the United States of America and the defendant, MICHAEL T. FLYNN, stipulate and agree that the following facts are true and accurate. These facts do not constitute all of the facts known to the parties concerning the charged offense; they are being submitted to demonstrate that sufficient facts exist that the defendant committed the offense to which he is pleading guilty.

1.    The defendant, MICHAEL T. FLYNN, who served as a surrogate and national security advisor for the presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump ("Campaign"), as a senior member of President-Elect Trump's Transition Team ("Presidential Transition Team"), and as the National Security Advisor to President Trump, made materially false statements and omissions during an interview with the Federal Bureau of Investigation ("FBI") on January 24, 2017, in Washington, D.C. At the time of the interview, the FBI had an open investigation into the Government of Russia's ("Russia") efforts to interfere in the 2016 presidential election, including the nature of any links between individuals associated with the Campaign and Russia, and whether there was any coordination between the Campaign and Russia's efforts.

2.    FLYNN's false statements and omissions impeded and otherwise had a material impact on the FBI's ongoing investigation into the existence of any links or coordination between individuals associated with the Campaign and Russia's efforts to interfere with the 2016 presidential election.

False Statements Regarding FLYNN's Request to the Russian Ambassador that Russia Refrain from Escalating the Situation in Response to U.S. Sanctions against Russia

 

Douma, Syria falls to the R+6

   

"Pro-government forces have opened up a new front against militant groups in Hama Governorate’s northern countryside, rapidly liberating a key town.

According to military-affiliated sources, the Syrian Arab Army and local fighters from the National Defence Forces attacked rebel positions around the town of Douma early this morning under cover of airstrikes and artillery bombardment."  AMN

-------------

It is clear now that while cleaning up the messy situation around the Abu Kamal/al Qa'im border crossing remains important to the R+6, the main action has moved to a major effort to re-take Idlib Province and force the Turks to go back cross the border into their own country.

What we are seeing is a concentric attack with axes of advance all around the southern borders of Idib Province from north of Hama City, then out along Route 42 then north to up near Khanassar. 

IMO the HTS do not have enough men and materiel to cover that many avenues of advance.  After a period of grinding down HTS, the R+6 will break through somewhere and then a general collapse is likely to take place as the R+6 forces surge forward in exploitation across the fertile plains of Idlib Province.

I just heard General (Ret.) Keane make the claim on Fox Business News that the Russians and the Syrian Armed Forces have done little to defeat IS.  How absurd!  This man, a former Vice Chief of Staff  of the US Army, is representative of the mindset of so many military people who struggled long against the Soviet threat and are so rigid that they cannot grasp the possibility that today's Russia is not necessarily an enemy.  He reminds me of a number of very senior officers who wnnted to fight me and intimidate me to accept their view of reality even as I and my people were briefing them.  This was true when I was an SES and the equivalent of a lieutenant general.  Keane is chairman of the board of the neocon run Institute for the Study of War.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-surprise-offensive-new-front-sees-syrian-army-liberate-key-town-north-hama/

http://www.clausewitz.com/readings/OnWar1873/BK6ch04.html

Shaping the battlefield. Hama to Morek road is open.

 

"A new crossing point linking government and rebel-controlled areas in northern Hama countryside is now available for both trade and civilians.

Hama-Morek highway has been officially opened today following extended talks between the Syrian government and rebel factions, aimed primarily at facilitating the trade between the two warring parties."   AMN

--------------

Yes, this is great for the civilian population but it is wonderful for the coming government (R+6) offensive into Idlib Province. This will be a main supply route (MSR) for that offensive.  pl  

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-government-rebels-agree-open-crossing-point-north-hama/

The next phase in Syria

(I couldn't crop this - sorry)

This is the situation in NW Syria and the east on 31 October.

1. The situation in Eastern Syria has become relatively stable.  The US government's proxy forces (SDF) have advanced to the east bank of the
   Euphrates and as a result sovereign Syria will be limited to the country west of the river for some unforeseeable period.
2. The SDF and R+6 are engaged along with Iraqi forces in a race along both banks of the river to determine who will control the Albukamel border crossing on the Deir al-Zor to Baghdad highway.  The US coalition apparently wants to keep that highway communication out of SAG hands so as to continue to weaken the government.  The Iraqi government wants the crossing open and in Syria's hands, so this is bound to be a cause of friction between the US and Iraq.
3. The large IS pockets in central Syria have been eliminated with some jihadis being allowed to evacuate into the Albukamel area and others seeking to flee into Idlib Province where they are being given a hostile reception by HTS (Al-Qa'ida).
4. This has freed up a large number of Syrian troops who are being re-deployed either to the Euphrates or to the coming offensive in Idlib Province.
5. The Syrian general command has appointed new commanders to the north overall and to the offensive that will drive into Idlib Province from the south.
6. Action on the axis astride Route 5 from the south has begun.  Secondary attacks should be expected from Aleppo City and from Latakia Province going east.
7. Such action is facilitated by the fact that both HTS and IS are excluded from the terms of the de-escalation agreement in Idlib Province.
8. The situation will become really interesting when R-6 forces reach the outposts now manned by the Turks in northern Idlib Province.  pl

Tillerson dosn't have a clue ...

 

"The U.S. Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, stated on Thursday that the reign of the Assad family is coming to an end, contrasting his previous comments in March declaring that the Syrian President’s removal was not a priority for the U.S. regime.“The reign of the Assad family is coming to an end,” Tillerson stated after his meeting with the head of the UN Envoy of Syria, Stephan de Mistura, in Geneva."

Tillerson stated he is unsure of how to bring about Assad’s end, but remained confident this would happen.  AMN

------------

Who briefs this guy?  Is this what he reads in the "silver streak" or "Purple Gonads" stuff brought by courier to Main State?  I don't know what they call it now.  Perhaps AIPAC and WINEP are his sources of information.  Or does this mean the Russians have agreed to remove Bashar?  pl 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/reign-assad-coming-end-us-secretary-state/

More on the US policy miasma in the ME

 

"On October 22, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said at a joint news conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubeir in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, that it is time for “Iranian militias” that’s fighting ISIS in Iraq to “go home” according to Reuters Agency.

“Iranian militias that are in Iraq, now that the fight against Daesh and ISIS is coming to a close, those militias need to go home. The foreign fighters in Iraq need to go home and allow the Iraqi people to regain control,” Tillerson said.

According to Reuters an US official explained that Tillerson was referring to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and the Iranian Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

However, the PMU consists of Iraqi forces with some Iranian support and assiastance. Considering this, Tillerson statement is either based on very poor understanding of the situation in Iraq, or it might be meant as propaganda, and nothing more."   SF

https://southfront.org/us-state-secretary-iranian-militias-must-leave-iraq/

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The PMU are overwhelmingly IRAQI Shia Arabs.  They ARE home.  Tillerson looks foolish sitting next to Adel Jubair (aka The Chihuahua) broadcasting to the world the policy desiderata of the Saudi kingdom.   We all know that DJT made his obeisance to the throne of the Wahhabi state.  Tillerson is obviously there as the deputy mukhtar of America.  Does the Shia run government of Iraq welcome such a statement?  I doubt it.  pl

******

"US.-backed fighters captured Syria's largest oil field from the Islamic State group Sunday, marking a major advance against the extremists in an area coveted by pro-government forces.

With IS in retreat, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government have been in a race to secure parts of the oil-rich Deir el-Zour province along the border with Iraq."  Chicago Tribune

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-syria-oil-field-islamic-state-20171022-story.html

-----------

 Well, pilgrims, IMO the US/SDF has done this to cripple Syrian reconstruction.  The income from this field will be needed for the re-building of places like Raqqa and Aleppo.  What do the neocons and their general officer allies think they are going to do with their possession of this Syrian national property?   Are they going to try to negotiate Kurdish autonomy amounting to independence?  pl

*****

"Turkish troops first deployed in Idlib last Thursday with the purported aim of enforcing the so-called de-escalation zone that Russia, Iran and Turkey agreed to in the Kazakh capital of Astana last month. In a statement last week, Turkey’s prime minister said that the operation also aimed to reduce refugee flows into Turkey, prevent conflicts between civilians and militants in Idlib, and establish control points for future deployment in the area.

A wide-scale military campaign against HTS, however, was not listed among the objectives, and Turkey has not demonstrated any hostility toward the group. The two are believed to have coordinated operations in Idlib and HTS has escorted Turkish troops into the province at least four times in the past month." newsdeeply.com

https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/articles/2017/10/23/hostility-toward-militants-grows-in-idlib-as-turkey-deploys-troops

-----------

IMO the new Sublime Porte speaks with Forked Tongue.  How's that for a mixed metaphor?  Sultan Tayyip and his band of neo-Ottomans harbor irredentist dreams with regard to the more or less united lands of the empire as it once was.  .  The Russians have fed them a slice of Syria both in Idlib Province and northeast of  Aleppo City.  It is reported that the Turkish military is occupying eight garrison positions in Idlib including two air bases.  Good luck on getting them to withdraw to Turkey once they are well installed.  pl

 

US policy in Islamdom is a chaos. Part 1

The accompanying map does not include India as a  country deeply affected by Islam and Islamicate civilization.  IMO that is a defect.  The terms "Islam," Islamdom," and "Islamicate Civilization." were clarified by the great historian of Islam, Marshell Hodgson.

This is my editorial opinion.

 ------------

 Syria.  The US persists in its nonsensical policy of regime change in Syria.  McGurk, the State Department lead in Syrian affairs is evidently one of the leaders of this foolishness.  The Syrian Government's forces have regained control of most of the country with the help of their Russian, Iranian, Hizbullah, Palestinian and Christian militia allies.   In spite of this the US MSM studiously ignores the efforts of the SAA and allies (R+6).  They are simply never mentioned.  They have been edited out of the US narrative.  Whether DJT has a side agreement with Putin over Syria seems not to affect the MSM narrative at all.  McGurk's statement that the Syrian government would not be allowed into Raqqa City is an announcement of an extra-legal interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign UN member state.  Do we intend to hold Raqqa forever and to what purpose?

Iraq.  In Iraq we have for the moment abandoned the interests of the KRG in its evident desire for independence from Baghdad.  We have done this in spite of outrage expressed by our foreign policy mentors in Israel.  The Israelis are, of course, the chief sponsors of Kurdish statehood.   The Israelis follow a consistent pattern of policy of disrupting surrounding states with a view to reducing them to pastoral rug bazaars.  Our loyalty to the Baghdad government is amusing because it is virtually inevitable that the Shia run government of Iraq will eventually align itself with Iran and ask the US to withdraw from the country.

Iran.  DJT's decision to stop certifying Iranian compliance with JCPOA is merely a reflection of Zionist influence over the president and the hyper-belligerent attitudes of Mattis, and McMaster.  They are revealed as more neocon than the organizational neocons and largely in league with them.  US abandonment of JCPOA will lead to direct policy conflicts with major European allies and the loss of business for American companies like Boeing.   In the end this direction may lead to a US-Iran War as a culmination of Israeli machinations in Washington.

Saudi Arabia.  Trump prostrated himself and his country before the Saudis and the leaders of the Islamic World.  The Saudis expect that this was more than a symbolic and empty gesture.  Saudi Arabia is a weak state in actual capabilities in the world  It is a state that the US will not need much longer as a source of petroleum.  The feebleness of the Saudi government is demonstrated by the ineffectual nature of its war in Yemen,  This genocide is being aided and abetted by the US government as part of its cartoon-like conception of basic social and political structures in Islamdom.  The Saudi government grows ever weaker as   a result of this war and decline in its monetized assets because of a growing surplus of petroleum in the world.  The Saudi princelings are not worth the effort being put into keeping them happy.

 Qatar.  US military operations in the ME are centered around the command and control facility at Al-Obeid in Qatar as well as the air base itself.  The air base is useful but is only one of many used by the US in the ME.  By siding with the Saudis DJT has de-stabilized the US relationsip with Qatar and is driving the Qataris in the direction of an pro-Iranian stance.  Would the US fight to keep al-Obeid?  The Saudis won't do it for the US.

Afghanistan.  DJT made a bad decision in deciding to persist in fighting to establish a coherent government in the country.  The aggressive and successful efforts of the taliban in the last week demonstrate the weakness of a government that has a negligible GDP and no ability to fund its own armed forces.  The defeat of that government is a certainty  when the US eventually withdraws it forces.  The various Afghan peoples are inherently unsuitable material for the formation of a coherent state.  DJT's flawed decision was based on the advice of his national security team.  McMaster, Mattis and Dunford are too powerful.  The US government is inherently a civilian government.  There are too many military men at the top just now.

Try to think past the MIC cult belief and the absurd conception of a US Deep State.

To be continued ... 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Hodgson

Decision time in Deir Ezzor - TTG

"BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:40 P.M.) – Three years ago, the Syrian Arab Army was withdrawing from much of eastern Syria, with little hope to hold onto the provincial capital of Deir Ezzor. However, that would all change in late September 2015 when the Russian Air Force began its aerial campaign against the terrorist groups occupying large parts of Syria.

With today’s liberation of the Islamic States (ISIS) de facto capital, Al-Mayadeen, the Syrian Arab Army is in prime position to liberate the Deir Ezzor Governorate’s largest oil fields. The Al-‘Umar Oil Fields have been one of the Islamic State’s most important revenue streams; its liberation is now one of the Syrian military’s top priorities in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.

In the coming days, the Syrian Arab Army will clear the Islamic State’s last pockets in the provincial capital and then shift their focus to the Al-‘Umar Oil Fields, where they hope to reach this site before the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)."  (Al Masdar News)

*************************

I don’t know if Leith Fadel knows the R+6 will cross the Euphrates  and drive the ten to fifteen kilometers due east to occupy the Omar oil fields or if he’s just making an educated guess. If sufficient mobile forces can be pushed across the river quickly, this would be a wise move. The real prize is still Al Bukamal, but a Tiger Force presence in the Omar fields would pretty much scotch CJTF-OIR plans to push the YPG/SDF to Al Bukamal ahead of the R+6. Then the R+6 could take the rest of the Euphrates valley and Al Bukamal at their leisure.

I believe it is well within Tiger Force capabilities to conduct an airmobile insertion into the Omar fields, force a river crossing and advance to a link up with the airmobile force. All depends on the disposition and strength of IS defenses and how fast the R+6 could put such a complicated operation into action. 

To the north, in Deir Ezzor itself, what’s left of the IS jihadis in the city are now cut off from reinforcement, resupply and any hope of a retreat. The R+6 forces on the east side of the Euphrates, spearheaded by elements of the 5th Legion, drove north and cut off the last IS lines of communication into the city. 

To the south, Iraqi PMU and Army units are massing just east of Rawa and are preparing to launch an operation to liberate al-Qa’im. The distance from Rawa to al-Qa’im is roughly the same as from Al Mayadin to Al Bukamal, about 80 kilometers. Not only would this Iraqi offensive pull IS forces away from the R+6 drive to Al Bukamal, but the success of both these drives would finally open up the main Bagdad-Damascus highway. I don't think the CJTF-OIR will be sending anybody any congratulations cards. Just imagine what Bibi will do. Perhaps he will scream in rage and drive his right foot so far into the ground that he creates a chasm and falls into it, never to be seen again. I can hardly wait. 

Far from Deir Ezzor, a Turkish Army column entered Syria to take on some variety of jihadi in Idlib. The government in Damascus issued a statement calling for the removal of these Turkish troops. At the same time, a captured Syrian pilot was finally released by the Turks. I get the feeling this has all been arranged by Moscow and the Syrian protest is largely theatrical. In the meantime, jihadis are still killing jihadis in Idlib. Good.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-eyes-deir-ezzors-largest-oil-fields-isis-retreats-albukamal/

Donald Trump KowTows to Israel on Iran Part II by Publius Tacitus

While the Trumper gave a good teleprompter speech today on the topic of Iran and nukes, he demonstrated great ignorance on the reality that is Iran. He clearly is reflecting the Israeli right wing view on the matter, one that is enthusiastically embraced in the United States by the folks we now refer to as Neo Conservatives. (These are the same people that Phil Giraldi wrote about, America's Jews Are Driving America's Wars).

Trump's speech was laughable. The following passages illustrate how delusional the Trump is when it comes to Iran:

Iran is under the control of a fanatical regime that seized power in 1979 and forced a proud people to submit to its extremist rule. This radical regime has raided the wealth of one of the world's oldest and most vibrant nations, and spread death destruction and chaos all around the globe. . . .

The regime harbored high level terrorists in the wake of the 9/11 attacks including Osama bin Laden's son. In Iraq and Afghanistan groups supported by Iran have killed hundreds of American military personnel. The Iranian dictatorship's aggression continues to this day. The regime remains the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, and provides assistance to al-Qaida, the Taliban, Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorist networks. it develops, deploys and proliferates missiles that threaten American troops and our allies. It harasses American ships and threatens freedom of navigation in the Arabian Gulf and in the Red Sea. It imprisons Americans on false charges, and it launches cyber-attacks against our critical infrastructure, financial system and military.

The U.S is far from the only target of the Iranian dictatorship's long campaign of bloodshed. The regime violently suppresses its own citizens it shot unarmed student protestors in the street during the green revolution. This regime has fueled sectarian violence in Iraq and vicious civil wars in Yemen and Syria. In Syria, the Iranian regime has supported the atrocities of Bashar al-Assad's regime. And condone Assad's use of chemical weapons against helpless civilians including many, many children.

Where does one begin to counter such lies and misrepresentations? Who has been the most destabilizing force in the Middle East over the last 27 years? I would suggest that the United States multiple invasions of Iraq, military action in Libya and our decision to help arm and train Islamic rebels keen on overthrowing Syria's President Assad qualifies us as the biggest meddlers and chaos makers.

One of the recurring big lies being pushed in the media--by Republicans and Democrat as well as some of our allies--is that Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the World.

Across the wide Euphrates ...

 

"As the Syrian forces readies mass crossing of the Euphrates River, the Russian military has sent new self-propelled ferries to the oil-rich province of Deir Ezzor.

Footage filmed a couple of days ago shows PMM-2M ferries unloading at the coastal Khmeimim airbase in Syria and eventually transported to the country’s east.

PMM-2M is a self-propelled ferry vehicle used for transporting wheeled and tracked non-amphibious vehicles with a loaded weight up to 42.5 tons across wide water obstacles."  AMN

--------------

This is a motorized ferry as well as an Armored Vehicle Launched Bridge (AVLB).

The Russian and Syrian engineers earlier brought forward a pontoon bridge set.  You can make ferries out of the pontons by lashing pierced steel planking (PSP) between the pontons and using outboard motors to move it.

In any event the arrival of equipment like this combined with the pontoon bridging indicates to me a determination on the part of R+6 to deny further movement of the SDF into areas east of the Euphrates that the SAG wishes to re-occupy.

Mike says that the SDF are not going to contest any of the areas that the SAG wants.  I hope that is true but DJT has delegated a great deal of authority to CENTCOM.  Who knows what they want?  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-russia-deploys-new-ferries-syrias-deir-ezzor/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92xAJKyCzC042 42.5t http://bsvt.by/en/pmm-2m-self-propelled-ferry

 

Good news from Syria

 

"The US and Russia rejected an Israeli request to prevent the presence of any Iranian forces or Iranian-backed militias near the Israeli border as a part of the ceasefire agreement in south Syria, the Israeli Haaretz newspaper reported on Thursday.

According to the report, Israel demanded to create a 60-80km wide buffer zone inside Syria against Iranian-backed forces. The supposed buffer zone would spread from the Golan Heights to the west of the Damascus-al-Suwayda highway in southwestern Syria.

Israel proposed its idea to Russia and the US during the talks that preceded the cease-fire agreement in southern Syria. According to the report, Russia refused the Israeli proposal, while the US didn’t back it for real mostly.

However, Russia promised Israel that the Iranians and their allies will not move any closer to Israel than five kilometers in the areas held by the Syrian government. The report noted that no Iranian presence was notified on the frontline with Syria for months now."  SF 

https://southfront.org/russia-resfused-israel-demand-of-60km-buffer-zone-against-iranian-backed-forces-in-southern-syria/

*****

"The US Coalition forces are not planning to enter Deir Ezzor City, the spokesperson for Operation Inherent Resolve, U.S. Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, told reporters on Thursday.

“I’ll just tell you that the plan is not to go into Deir Ezzor City, but there (are) plenty of ISIS fighters and resources and leaders that continue to have holdouts throughout the middle Euphrates River valley,” Dillon concluded.

It was initially believed the US Coalition would attempt to out-maneuver the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to the strategic city of Albukamal on the Iraqi border; however, this does not appear to be an option for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)." 

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-backed-forces-not-entering-deir-ezzor-city-coalition-spokesperson/

---------------

 "You asked "Is there a SAG-SDF deal?" This morning's press briefing by Coalition Spokesman indicated that the SDF do have direct communications with the regime. It is through their own line of communication and NOT through the Russian/CJTF deconfliction hotline. Did not go into detail, did not indicate at what level either on the SDF side or on the regime side. So at least there are talks going on even if it is not a full fledged deal."  Comment from Mike

----------

1.  The US/Russian refusal of Israel's wish for a 50 km. buffer zone free of Iranian/Hizbullah presence east of the Golan Heights occupation line suggests that there is substantial US/Russian coordination on Syria policy.

2.  Yesterday, the US coalition forces announced through its official spokesman, that SDF forces would not try to enter the city of Deir al-Zor.  This did not seem to be the case earlier given the SDF's rapid advance to the cross Euphrates suburbs of the city.  This suggests that the policy of coordination with Russia in Syria has percolated from the White House to the US field command or that the SDF has told their American minders that they are not willing try to "outmaneuver" the Syrian government east of the Euphrates.

3.  Mike's comment above indicates that a separate non/US-Russian link now exists between the SDF and the Syrian government.  This bodes well for a post civil war Syria and its territorial integrity.  pl

A "forlorn hope" in SE Raqqa Province

"On August 24, ISIS launched a large counter-attack and recaptured the villages of al-Muqlah, al-Atshanah, Salem al-Hamad, al-Bu Hamad, Zor Shumr, al-Huwijah and Ghanem al-Ali in the southern Raqqa countryside. According to the ISIS-linked news agency Amaq, ISIS killed 42 Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers during the attack. 58 more SAA members were allegedly killed in a car bomb attack on a gathering of SAA soldiers near Ghanim al-Ali village. On August 25, clashes continued with the SAA and it sallies were attempting to regain momentum in the area."    SF

-----------

IS is desperate to make a stand somewhere in the vast Raqqa/Homs/Hama Provinces area in which a combination of R+6 ground forces and R+6/US coalition air is cutting them to pieces and then crushing the pieces.

In the west of this set of cauldron battles, HTS Al-Qa'ida forces have tried in the last three days to break through across the Salamiya to Aleppo supply road to open an escape or reinforcement route to trapped IS forces south of the road.  Politically this is a surprise because of the unusual character of this cooperation between the two jihadi groups, but, it seems that the need to confront the R+6 forces has overcome that inhibition in this case.  In any event, the effort appears to have failed even as this IS pocket continues to shrink.

In the east of the set of ongoing battles, IS forces were massed yesterday for an attack along the Euphrates River to the NW through villages held by pro-government tribals in an economy of force role to free up heavy forces for other missions.  These IS forces re-captured half a dozen small villages and killed around a hundred tribals and SAA soldiers.

Their success has IMO placed these IS fighters in an indefensible salient with the irrigated strip of the Euphrates Valley and the river itself to their north or right depending on how you want to express it.  The SDF holds the ground to the north of the river.   The ground south of the salient is held by the R+6.

Penetrations like this inevitably run out of steam unless reinforcements are stacked up behind them to be pushed forward as losses occur by attrition.

I expect that R+6 will re-position heavy mechanized forces and will attack to the river with maximum air support. 

This should be a rewarding killing ground in which to send a lot of IS jihadis "home."  pl 

https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-southern-raqqah-on-august-25-2017-map-update/

Major Cauldrons Forming in Central Syria - TTG

“BEIRUT, LEBANON (1:15 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has officially halted their field operations in the southeastern countryside of the Al-Raqqa Governorate after more than 7 weeks of being on the offensive against the Islamic State (ISIL).

According to a military source, the Syrian Arab Army’s Tiger Forces have been ordered to halt their advance on Deir Ezzor until the Islamic State’s pocket in central Syria is fully cleared.

The Tiger Forces will now concentrate on the Hama Governorate, where many of their units are currently awaiting orders to storm the strategic town of ‘Uqayrbat.

‘Uqayrbat is considered the most important town under the Islamic State’s control because it is located along several roadways that flow through the Al-Raqqa and Homs governorates.”  (Al Masdar News)

***********************

Cauldron, kessel, pocket, motti or encirclement, call them what you will, but the major jihadi salient in central Syria is about to become two major jihadi cauldrons. That appears to have been the foremost military objective of R+6 forces for several weeks. Yesterday’s announcement makes it official.

The Tiger Forces drive to the Euphrates from Aleppo, started so long ago, was a critical and necessary move to reduce the IS salient along the Homs-Hama governorate border. It created the conditions for the imminent creation of two cauldrons where a salient once existed. Another move that was critical was the constant R+6 pressure all along this front. Note on the above map that every blue circle represents a sustained offensive action by the R+6, even at Deir Ezzor. These widespread offensive actions prevented the IS forces from concentrating at a place of their choosing to seize the initiative.

As I write this, the SAA has managed to either close the gap or come within five kilometers of closing the gap between the Ithriya and Al Sha’er advances, thus creating the first of the cauldrons. This has already been called the Uqayribat pocket. The Tiger Forces are continuing to press southwards from Al Kawm. It is this advance that I find most interesting and most telling about the future of the SAA.  

In the early morning hours of 12 August, Brigadier General Suheil al-Hassan was preparing a company-sized assault force of the Special Airborne Force for a night airmobile assault some twenty kilometers behind IS lines. This Special Airborne force is not part of Hassan’s Tiger Forces. Before the recent unpleasantness in Syria began, they were primarily used for defense of airports but had a great deal of training in urban warfare and counter insurgency. Suheil served as a paratrooper and commander in this unit before forming the Tigers.

Suheil al-Hassan personally led this assault force on this mission. He was seen exhorting his troops on the tarmac wearing a load bearing equipment vest, a helmet with night vision goggles and an AK with night sight under his arm. His troops were also lightly armed with a basic load of ammunition for their small arms, many carried what appear to a LAW-type launcher slung across their backs. The lightness of their loads were apparent as they ran and jumped up into the Mi-8 helicopter transports. I also note the rear doors of the Hips were removed remnicent of those Hueys in the 25th Infantry Division. I didn’t know they had doors until I got back to Benning.

The operation began with a “fire attack” of multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) followed by an aerial assault by Ka-52 Alligators. The Alligators also adjusted MLRS fire. Then four Hips brought in Suheil’s men landing near the settlements of Khirbet Mikman and Al Kadir. They moved along a dry river bed to take a commanding hill and assaulted the village of Al Kadir. Suheil’s men took an IS headquarters and several depots. Suheil and his men held these positions until Tiger Forces advanced to relieve them later in the morning of 12 August. The IS lost over thirty of its fighters, three tanks, seventeen armed tacticals and seven VBIEDs to destruction by the raiding force and a further two VBIEDs and several artillery pieces captured by Suheil’s men. There were no SAA casualties from this entire operation.

The Tiger Forces did not stop there. By nightfall on 14 August, they advanced another twenty kilometers seizing the entire Al Kawm area. The IS retreated to Taybah, the last town between the Tiger Forces and their SAA brethren at Al Sukhnah. The Tiger Forces have since taken Mount Minshar, the high ground overlooking Taybah. I do not know whether the SAA prefers to close this cauldron as soon as possible or leave a small gap to entice IS to attempt a withdrawal. This narrow gauntlet covered by R+6 fire attacks with artillery and MLRS and round the clock predations by Syrian and Russian air attacks could be a very effective meat grinder. 

The future of IS in Syria is becoming clear. They are sure to put up a spirited resistance along the Euphrates, but they will never take Deir Ezzor. They will dissolve into a stateless, but still dangerous, underground resistance. The R+6 will keep the pressure on, probably quite brutally, until IS is no more than angry men in a few mosques.

The SAA, with Russian assistance, will become a motivated, well trained and equipped force capable of daring and imaginative combined arms operations. It will be regularly train with Iranian and Hezbollah units and will be a great source of ulcers among the Israeli Defense Force. When the Syrian Air Force eventually reaches maturity, those Israeli ulcers will bleed without stop. The political geography of the Mideast is about to change.

TTG

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/complete-breakdown-central-syria-battle-map/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-airborne-forces-conduct-rare-mission-behind-enemy-lines-video/

 

Is the Korean war scare real?

 

1.  Someone released to the Washington Post yesterday a supposed IC majority approved national intelligence estimate that concludes the North Koreans  already have miniaturized nuclear warheads that can be fitted to some sort of delivery system.

2.  The UN Security Council voted unanimously this weekend to condemns North Korea for its nuclear weapons/delivery systems program.  China and Russia voted for the resolution which imposes additional restrictions on Chinese trade with North Korea.  The Chinese and Russians would not have voted thusly if they had not been shown some US intelligence containing evidence that North Korea is a menace to peace in the Far East.

3.  Fox News reports that US intelligence has told them that US spy satellites have shown in the last week that North Korea and uploaded Stormpetrel (nfi) anti-ship missiles to a Wonsan Class (nfi) missile patrol craft at a North Korean naval base on the eastern coast facing the Sea of Japan where numerous US naval units are positioned.

4.  DJT continues his barrage of tweets against North Korea threatening fire and brimstone from his lair in New Jersey (a disclosed location).  Is he really there?

5.  Sebastian Gorka (a Dr. Strangelove seem-alike) intones that DJT's actions and tweets will bring North Korea to its knees.

6.  Nikki Haley continues to wage diplomatic war against North Korea at the UN all the while looking fearful.

7. General (ret.) Jack Keane has the ear of DJT and has urged a decapitating strike against North Korea.  He is evidently oblivious of the difficulty of locating a single man target in a security state like North Korea.

--------------

All of this leads me to four possibilities:

a.  All of this is real and the US is being inexorably driven to war against North Korea by North Korean actions.

b.  Alternatively a massive Information Operation is underway by factions in the US government conditioning the US population and indeed the world to the inevitability of war brought on by some North Korean action.  An incident at sea where facts are difficult to check would do.

c.  The IO campaign may have as its goal the intimidation of the North Koreans. 

d.  These events are coincidences.

I will not go on at length about the terrible cost that the people of the Two Koreas and the US armed forces would pay in such a war,  These costs have been much written of. 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/08/north-korea-is-fast-approaching-trumps-red-line/?utm_term=.faf80fb06a05

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_no-name%3Apage%2Fbreaking-news-bar&tid=a_breakingnews&utm_term=.43b4fc65bfc2

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/world/asia/north-korea-sanctions-united-nations.html

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/08/07/us-spy-satellites-detect-north-korea-moving-anti-ship-cruise-missiles-to-patrol-boat.html

 

The New York Times Pushes Propaganda War Against Russia by Publius Tacitus

 

There is no longer any doubt that the New York Times is nothing more than a willing cog in the establishment war machine and is happy to serve as a propaganda platform. While there are times that newspapers and electronic media outlets are unwitting dupes for propaganda, the article penned by  MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITT (published on 31 July 2017) is the work of willing puppets masquerading as journalists:

Russia’s Military Drills Near NATO Border Raise Fears of Aggression

This screed starts with this piece of artful dishonesty:

Russia is preparing to send as many as 100,000 troops to the eastern edge of NATO territory at the end of the summer, one of the biggest steps yet in the military buildup undertaken by President Vladimir V. Putin and an exercise in intimidation that recalls the most ominous days of the Cold War.

Since when is it an act of "aggression" for a country--Russia in this case--to conduct military exercises in its own territory? Gordon and Schmitt also conveniently omit the facts that the United States has been engaged in a variety of military exercises on the border of Russia for the last year. Yet, rather than acknowledge that truth, Gordon and Schmitt push the lie that this is an unprovoked action by a militaristic Russia hell bent on conquering the world. 

How else is one to interpret the following quotes:

The military exercise . . . .is part of a larger effort by Mr. Putin to shore up Russia’s military prowess, and comes against the backdrop of an increasingly assertive Russia. Beyond Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election in support of the Trump campaign, which has seized attention in the United States, its military has in recent years deployed forces to Syria, seized Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine, rattled the Baltic States with snap exercises and buzzed NATO planes and ships. . . .

“There is only one reason you would create a Guards Tank Army, and that is as an offensive striking force,” General Hodges said. “This is not something for homeland security. That does not mean that they are automatically going to do it, but in terms of intimidation it is a means of putting pressure on allies.”

If you read only this article you would be excused for assuming that Russia is on the prowl for no good reason. Fortunately, our media is not totally subservient to the war machine. NPR reported last week that the United States is actually carrying out the largest military operations on Russia's border in 27 years:

The U.S. and NATO are staging their largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War, and they're doing it in countries of 3 former members of the Warsaw Pact: Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary

DAVID WELNA, BYLINE: Yes, I did. This is all part of what's been called the European Deterrence Initiative, and it's a reinforcement of U.S. forces that had been depleted in Eastern Europe before Russia annexed Crimea three years ago. And as part of this sort of hardening of the U.S. presence here, there was an armored combat brigade team of about 4,000 Army troops from Fort Carson, Colo., that arrived here in Eastern Europe early this year. And they're here in Romania, and they're taking part in military exercises along with about 20,000 other troops.

On Saturday, I was in the Carpathian Mountains, and I watched a pretty impressive live fire, land and air assault there on an imagined enemy. And then yesterday, along the banks of the Danube River here, there was another assault staged to retake the other side of the river from another imagined enemy.

GREENE: You keep saying imagined enemy. Who is the imagined enemy?

WELNA: Well, no doubt it's Russia. And, you know, while this wasn't really a D-Day invasion along the Danube - there was no fire return from the other side - there was a lot of sound and fury. And here's a bit of what it sounded like.

The US military exercise is dubbed Saber Guardian:

Exercise Saber Guardian 17 is a U.S. European Command, U.S. Army Europe-led annual exercise taking place in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria in the summer of 2017. This exercise involves more than 25,000 service members from over 20 ally and partner nations. The largest of the Black Sea Region exercises, Saber Guardian 17 is a premier training event for U.S. Army Europe and participating nations that will build readiness and improve interoperability under a unified command, executing a full range of military missions to support the security and stability of the Black Sea Region. It is deterrence in action.

Some of the more notable aspects of SG17 include: the massing of 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division (3/4ID) from several locations across the Operation Atlantic Resolve area of operation to the exercise joint operations area (JOA) in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria; and the movement of 2nd Cavalry Regiment (2CR) from Vilseck, Germany, to numerous locations throughout the JOA.

But that's not all. The United States also has been busy in the Baltics in early June 2017:

The U.S.'s European Command, which is based in Germany, said Thursday it had deployed an unspecified number of F-16 Fighting Falcons from Aviano Air Base in Italy to the Krzesiny Air Base in Poland in support of Baltic Operations (BALTOPS) and Saber Strike, two massive annual drills intended to boost the U.S.'s military presence in Europe and to support regional allies. European Command's statement came a day after it said a number of B-1B Lancers had been sent from Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota to join three B-52H Stratofortresses at the Royal Air Force base in Fairford, U.K. Meanwhile, 800 U.S. airmen in Europe were poised to train with NATO allies this month as the Western military alliance escalates its rivalry with Russia.

And there was US activity in Poland in January:

U.S. troops arrived in the small town of Drawsko Pomorskie, Poland, as part of the largest armed military brigade deployed in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

The U.S. troops, along with 53 track vehicles, including the M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzer, reached Poland after a three-day journey through Germany. The show of force falls under Operation Atlantic Resolve, designed to show the United States' commitment to its European allies in the face of what NATO sees as Russian aggression.

This is not a comprehensive list. If you take time to do further research you will discover that the United States military in tandem with other countries has carried out several military exercises from the Black Sea in the south, all along the western border of Russia and in the Baltic Sea in the north. 

If you are Russia and you are witnessing repeated deployments of U.S. infantry, armor, air and naval units on the frontier that produced that last military invasion of Russia (which left at least 20 million dead) would you sit back and do nothing?

What would the United States do if Russia managed to convince Mexico to sign a mutual defense treaty and then proceeded to conduct tank and military air exercises along our southern border? Would we do nothing?

Gordon and Schmitt are an embarrassment to the profession of journalism. Rather than actually report facts and place them in their proper context, they chose instead to push lies as truth and try to help shape public opinion into believing that Russia poses an imminent threat to the west.

One other point worth remembering--Russia spends $60 billion annually on defense spending while the United States is slated for $650 billion. How much is the US spending on just EUCOM exercises targeted at Russia? Sadly, there is bipartisan stupidity and ignorance when it comes to the issue of properly assessing Russia and the threat it does (or does not) pose to the United States. My cynical conclusion is that as long as Russia is portrayed as the great Red menace bent on world domination we can justify spending $650 billion dollars to thwart an invasion that is not coming.

"Donald Trump just kept his most important promise on the Mideast" - Mulshine

"When I called Lang the other day, he recalled going to seminars in D.C. a few years ago with "all these political science guys and think tankers" who would repeat the mantra of the moment: "Assad must go."

"I would ask at these conferences, 'What if he doesn't go?  What if they fight their way through this?'" Lang recalled. "They'd say, 'Oh it's not gonna happen. He's gonna go. He's a terrible man. There's no support for him.'"

In fact there was plenty of support from the minority Christians, Alawites and Shia Muslims who feared they'd be slaughtered by Sunni jihadis if the government fell - not an unrealistic fear given the actions of ISIS in the parts of Iraq and Syria it controlled.

By the time the 2016 campaign got going it was obvious to anyone paying attention that the strategy of regime change should have died with the Bush 43 administration. Yet the Republican  who aspired to be Bush 45 was still backing regime change, as was the eventual Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.

They were the establishment favorites. But The Donald outraged  the establishment by coming out against the idea of toppling secular dictators. 

The big question was whether President Trump was going to be seduced by the Beltway crowd into reneging on his promise."  Mulshine

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This article says it all.  pl 

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/07/dont_look_now_but_donald_trump_just_kept_his_most.html