Sic Semper Tyrannis

IMO Iran will wait for Biden

A journo friend called yesterday to ask my opinion about the course of near term events regarding Iran.

The murder of a senior Iranian scientist at the weekend may have been done by Israel or the United States or both in cooperation.  He may or may not have been the "father" of an actual Iranian MILITARY nuclear program as opposed to a CIVILIAN electric power focused program.

In the 2007 NIE on Iran the USIC would not commit publicly to the existence of such a military program and they never have since.  The theory of the case then was that Khamenei ordered an end to an experimental military program after the occupation of Iraq by the US and the destruction of the Iraqi government.  Khamenei published a fatwa stating that such a program was an evil thing and was no longer needed as a deterrent against Iraq.  

The subsequent US/Israeli focus on a putative Iranian nuclear weapons program was IMO an artifact of the Israeli/Cheney/Ziocon fascination with their 1% theory of strategy.  Stated simply, this is the concept that if anything can possibly threaten you, even at a  1% level of probability, then you should seek to crush it.

On that basis the Israelis have long wanted Iran crushed.  They have lacked the means to do it themselves unless they want to use the nuclear weapons they pretend not to have.  They evidently do not want to do that and so their long yearned for solution is that the stupid but strong Americans do it for them with perhaps a minor supporting role for themselves just so that they can claim afterward that they did all the hard bits.

In that context the death of the Iranian savant is easy to see as a provocation intended to bring on an Iranian attack which could be used to goad Trump into a grand finale effort against Iran.

The USS Nimitz Battle Group is in the area with all its wondrous  planes and missile shooting ships.  The US has been moving JDAM shooting B-52s into the region for a week.  Things like the B-2 bomber and B-1B are on call from far away.  Someone has been setting the stage for ...?  Who knows?  I doubt that it is Trump.  He has shown himself to be long on talk, and short on actual shooting.

Are the Iranians dumb enough to take the bait?  I doubt it.  All they have to do is wait for Joe, Blinken et al to take over and they are likely to get something very like JCPOA.  pl 

On Lord Malloch-Brown - David Habakkuk

The reason why Mark Malloch Brown was made a life peer is, I think, likely to have been that in our system, it is necessary for ministers to be directly answerable to Parliament. In June 2007, when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as Prime Minister, Malloch Brown (no relation, obviously!) was appointed as Minister of State at the FCO, with responsibility for Africa, Asia and the United Nations. As he had extensive experience of all three areas, at first sight at least, there was nothing surprising, or reprehensible, in the new PM following a more ‘American’ model and having a minister, in an important portfolio, who had not been elected to the Commons. And installing Malloch Brown in the ‘Upper House’ would have been a perfectly natural and proper thing to do. A closer look at his ‘CV’, however, would have filled me foreboding, even had I read it outside of the context of ‘Russiagate.’ I have been attempting to assimilate the material in the piece which Matthew Ehret published on the ‘Strategic Culture Foundation’ site on 17 November, and follow up some of the leads there and elsewhere. (See https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/11/17/lord-malloch-brown-revealed-the-british-hand-behind-coup-shows-its-scales-again/ .)

There is a relevant contrast with the three figures I discussed in my previous comment. So, unlike them, Malloch Brown is a kind of ‘toff’ - although not really any kind of ‘standard issue’ British kind. According to ‘Wikipedia’, his father, an erstwhile South African diplomat, was in exile from his native country when his son was born, in London, in 1953. The relevance of the African background to his subsequent career looks as though it may be complex, and worth exploring. His education and early career, however, follow a familiar British pattern. After attending Marlborough, a famous ‘public school’ whose pupils have included the Duchess of Cambridge, Malloch Brown took a ‘First’ in history at Magdalene College, Cambridge, and then did a Masters in ‘Political Science’ at Michigan. Shortly afterwards, he became political correspondent of ‘The Economist.’ This was already a ‘red light’ for me, as that paper, and to a somewhat lesser extent the ‘Financial Times’, gave me something of a shock at the time of the retreat and collapse of Soviet power. People whose politics I had thought were not so far from my own – which in those days might have been loosely called ‘conservative liberal’ – suddenly revealed themselves as displaying a postively ‘neo-Bolshevik’ belief that simply toppling deeply unloveable ‘authoritarian’ systems would magically create some kind of ‘nirvana.’ Also, many such people have displayed – time and again – their inability to display any kind of ‘empathy’ – which may or may not mean imply ‘sympathy’ – for ‘deplorables’, be they in Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, or wherever. In so doing, they have done nobody any favours, not even, looking longer term, themselves. I got censored by the ‘Financial Times’, I think it was before ‘Brexit’, when I suggested that contemporary Western élites made the pre-1789 French aristocracy look ‘ear to the ground’ and ‘in touch.’ If such people had not decided that they could safely ignore the discontents which to anyone who bothered to look had been visibly building for decades, then then there would not have been a ‘Brexit’, or indeed the election of Donald Trump. Looking at Maddoch Brown’s career after his initial stint at the ‘Economist’ aroused further suspicions. My current, very preliminary, ‘SWAG’ is that he may be a kind of British ‘Alden Pyle’ figure. Without wanting to express regret that none of the the inhabitants of the polities in whose murky political intrigues he became entangled have resorted to drastic methods to counter Malloch Brown’s activities, I think it quite possible that his career may illustrate ‘degenerative dynamics’ whose early stages Graham Greene’s novel charts.

The fact that such people characteristically become involved in intrigues too deep for them, in which they are liable to find that rather than being the ‘dog’ they are the ‘tail’, is liable to create very good ‘rational’ reasons for ‘cover-up.’ This reinforces the pressures towards acting with a complete lack of scruple, arising from their very limited understanding characteristic of how the ‘hoi polloi’, both in foreign societies and their own, think and act, and their consequent inability to cope with the ‘populist revolts’ which their own incomprehension fuels. (The appalling treatment of Lieutenant-General Flynn by a whole range of people, on both sides of the Atlantic, may I think have been eminently ‘rational’, from their point of view, seen against this background: he was simply too dangerous.) Moreover, once one has placed a great deal of faith in the use of ‘political technologies’ to influence voters, and one discovers that they are failing to deliver, it may not be so large a step to take to look for ways to exploit modern technologies to do, more effectively, what has been done by crude means at a local level for years. But, until I have a better grasp of the evidence relating to Dominion, Smartmatic, and Soros, I am not in a position to be clear as to quite how the suspicions which have been raised about the role of Malloch Brown in election manipulation, by Ehret and others, are justified.

Where a naive faith in the possibilities of technology ends, and the deliberate cynical exploitation of very real possibilities for corruption technological development can create begins, is often not easy to determine. There is one reservation I have about the Ehret article, which is related to the mixed feelings I have had, over the years, about much of the material produced by people associated with the late Lyndon LaRouche. They have been, in my view, absolutely right in seeing the interrelations between elements pursuing ‘covert’ strategies in the United Kingdom and United States as central to making sense of recent history. And I have found that the work they have produced has turned up a very great body of very valuable information – just as Ehret has done. However, the ‘narrative’ into which they ‘fit’ – sometimes one might indeed say ‘shoehorn’ – this evidence, in which innocent Americans are led astray by devious, Machiavellian ‘Brits’, very often, in my view, fails to justice to the complexities of the interactions involved. Over the past months, moreover, I have become increasingly concerned that this ‘narrative’ can be exploited by those individuals and groups in your country who have been most intimately involved in ‘The Plot Against the President’, to use Lee Smith’s title, to, in effect, get off ‘scot-free’: or at least, with no more than a ‘slap on the wrist.’ What Christopher Steele rather clearly suggested, in his responses to his cross-examination by Hugh Tomlinson, QC, on behalf of the Alfa ‘oligarchs’, back in March, was that his ‘co-conspirators’ were colluding to make him the ‘patsy’ in relation to ‘Russiagate.’ In my view, there would, in this, be a certain of ‘poetic justice.

It may very well be, however, that, on this point at least, Steele is, essentially, telling the truth. And if he is, then those who in one way or another give aid and comfort to the ‘patsy’ strategy may make it materially easier for a Biden Administration to obscure the collusion between people at the top of your law enforcement and intelligence apparatus and the Democratic leadership, which, in my view, is central to ‘Russiagate.’

“What Syria withdrawal? There was never a Syria withdrawal,” Jeffrey said.

" ... even as he praises the president’s support of what he describes as a successful “realpolitik” approach to the region, he acknowledges that his team routinely misled senior leaders about troop levels in Syria. 

“We were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there,” Jeffrey said in an interview. The actual number of troops in northeast Syria is “a lot more than” the roughly two hundred troops Trump initially agreed to leave there in 2019.    Defense One

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"We?"  Who are "We?"  

State Department people?  Well, certainly some of those were involved.

But ... IMO it would not have been possible to deceive or mislead the WH and specifically the Commander in Chief without the active cooperation of CENTCOM, the JCS and OSD.

If they had not been participating in the lying, it would have been obvious in any number of interactions with President Trump that the president's understanding of  troop numbers in Syria was not correct and that he was being deceived by "we." (whoever that was).  That revelation evidently did not happen.  The NSC staff should have detected the lack of truth in reported numbers.  That it did not tells me that at least some of the NSC staff were disloyal to Trump.  Obvious?  Yes, but that is worth re-stating. 

James Jeffrey is quite proud of his achievement in maintaining a "realpolik" stalemate in Syria, one that stymies both Russia and the Syrian government.  

IMO opinion he is revealed by his own words as a treacherous back stabber.  "Un hombre sin honor."  pl

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/11/outgoing-syria-envoy-admits-hiding-us-troop-numbers-praises-trumps-mideast-record/170012/

In FP Biden is worse than Trump by Ted Rall

"Biden, notes Marcetic, pushed for "the 1999 bombing of Serbia, which actually dissolved the local pro-democracy movement and rallied popular support around the country's dictator." Biden voted for the U.S. wars against Afghanistan and Iraq. "I voted to go into Iraq, and I'd vote to do it again," Biden said in August 2003. Now he defends himself by saying he was so stupid that he fell for Bush's lies about WMDs.

Biden was the guy who convinced Obama to ramp up Bush's drone assassination program, which kills 50 innocent bystanders for every 1 targeted "militant" -- who often gets away and is rarely a threat to the United States, just to our authoritarian allies. Someday soon, Biden's drone killings abroad will be used to justify killing Americans here at home.

Elsewhere, Marcetic writes: "When Reagan invaded Grenada in 1983, bombing a hospital in the process, Biden said he 'did the right thing.' When he bombed Libya three years later, killing 36 civilians and dictator Muammar Gaddafi's 15-month-old daughter, Biden said, 'There can be no question that Gaddafi has asked for and deserves a strong response like this.' And when George H. W. Bush invaded Panama three years after that, an outrageous war to depose a leader who had been a CIA asset and that saw dead civilians 'buried like dogs,' as one witness put it, Biden called it 'appropriate and necessary.'"

A vote for Biden isn't just a vote against Trump. It's a vote in favor of Biden's vote to kill 1 million Iraqis. If we elect Joe Biden, we will send a message to the world: America hates you; we're glad we killed all those people, and we plan to kill more."  Ted Rall

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Rall isn't someone I am likely to cite extensively but in this case I can only agree with much of what he says about these two men in the foreign policy area.

I do not know Trump, have never met him, and wouldn't cross the street to do so.  Actually, that takes some effort these days.

Biden is one of the most belligerent and nastily "pushy" people I have known in the Borg (foreign policy establishment).  He is a screamer who will get right up in your face to see if you will back away from him.  He will stab in the chest with a forefinger for the same purpose.  He will insult you or threaten to fight you in an attempt to intimidate.  He has a bully's personality, and he is not too bright.  Let us not forget his history of plagiarism.

He and Obama seemed to have enjoyed killing "inferiors" around the world and they participated directly in the process of selection of targets for Death by Drone.   LBJ, another loathsome critter, picked individual bombing targets in VN, but I don't think he targeted individuals.

As Rall says, if Biden wins you will see a lot more patriotic Americans condemned to participate in Death by Biden.  pl

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_ted_rall/on_foreign_policy_biden_is_worse_than_trump?utm_campaign=RR07132020DN&utm_source=criticalimpact&utm_medium=email

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Rall

"The Return of the Anti-Antiwar Left" James W. Carden

"only “a few decades ago, “the Left” was considered the center of opposition to imperialism, and champion of the right of peoples to self-determination.”

Johnstone is part of a distinguished line of American expatriate writers, who, perhaps because of an objectivity conferred by distance, saw their country more clearly than many of their stateside contemporaries. Members of the club include William Pfaff who for many years wrote from Paris and the longtime Asia correspondent Patrick Lawrence. The Paris based Johnstone brings a moral clarity to matters of war and peace that is, alas, too often absent from most contemporary foreign affairs writing. Its near total absence on the Left during the Trump years should be cause for reflection, and concern.

As Johnstone recounts, after the Cold War liberals became bewitched by the prospect of waging wars for humanitarian ends. A generation of journalists and foreign policy experts including Samantha Power, Christiane Amanpour, Jamie Rubin, and Christopher Hitchens, would make the Balkans a proving ground for their liberal theories of preventative war, in the process throwing the ancient and venerable tradition of St. Augustine’s Just War theory on the trash heap and paving the way for what was to follow in the coming decades, including Iraq II, Libya, Syria and a global drone war and a “targeted” assassination program."  Carden

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Ah, for the good old days when lefties could be treated as a deluded minority rather than a vanguard party of globalist imperialists.  pl

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/07/01/the-return-of-the-anti-antiwar-left/

A few thoughts - 24 April 2020

1.  IMO the US Navy will be doing a good thing if it persuades Trump to restore Captain Crozier to command of USS Theodore Roosevelt.  He did a very foolish thing by appealing to the whole wide world to support his position, but he did have the best interest of the ship's company in mind and as he said, we are not at war in the Pacific.   This would also be a humane decision on the part of the navy toward an officer in command, something unusual for them.

2.  IMO the medico bureaucrat academicians who insist that their group think about how to stop a pandemic are going to be discredited as it becomes clear that COVID-19 is wildly infectious but at the same time not very fatal except for the old, infirm and others compromised in health.  That would include HIV/AIDS sufferers.  You don't hear much about that, but IMO that is because such people are typically members of the LGBTQ "community" and therefore members of a protected group.  In pursuit of the power of policy dictation the doctor philosopher kings have contributed mightily to the near death of the greatest world economy in history (ours).  Let us hope the more sensible state governors can do enough to remedy this disaster to bring back some measure of prosperity.  I hope that Trump realizes that he does not have constitutional power over the governors.  As I have previously written he would have to declare states he targeted to be in rebellion or say that they had lost the power to govern themselves in order to have a claim to that sort of power.

3.  US foreign policy in the greater ME remains the shambles that Zionist and/or neocon infiltration of government and manipulation of election funding have made it.   There is little difference in responsibility  for this in the two major political parties.  As a result of Trump's continuation of the Israel inspired policy of meddling in the affairs of the Islamic culture continent the US now finds itself in a position in which policies of domination have caused us to have a thousand or so US military "hostages" scattered across NE Syria and all over Iraq where they are completely vulnerable to attack from Iran and its allies.  

4.  This potential hostage posture is a major inhibition to US freedom of action in the Gulf where Iranian aggressiveness is targeted toward a withdrawal of the US Navy from the Gulf.  IMO such a forced withdrawal caused by a minor power like Iran because we are afraid to fight would be a major milestone in the decline of America's power in the world.  Our enemies would rejoice.  IMO the navy can easily defeat any Iranian enemy but the hostage situation in Syria, and Iraq is a major impediment to naval action.  We should get out of those two countries. We should not have been there in the first place.   I am clearly on record about that from 2001 onward.  In the case of Afghanistan the hinge of fate swung in 2009 with Obama's disastrous decision to let the COIN generals persuade him to try to build a new and modern Afghanistan.  The resulting state has expenses for its security forces that are greater than its GDP.

5.  Some constitutional mechanism must be developed in the US for forcing the retirement from office of old people who are judged to be demented.  The ice cream interview comes to mind.  pl

 

Pushing for a third Iraq war - TTG

"WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to plan for an escalation of American combat in Iraq, issuing a directive last week to prepare a campaign to destroy an Iranian-backed militia group that has threatened more attacks against American troops. But the United States’ top commander in Iraq has warned that such a campaign could be bloody and counterproductive and risks war with Iran. In a blunt memo last week, the commander, Lt. Gen. Robert P. White, wrote that a new military campaign would also require thousands more American troops be sent to Iraq and divert resources from what has been the primary American military mission there: training Iraqi troops to combat the Islamic State."

"The Pentagon directive and General White’s response — both classified internal military communications — were described by several American officials with direct knowledge of their contents. The exchange comes amid a simmering fight inside the Trump administration over policy toward Iran and the course of America’s war in Iraq, which began just over 17 years ago. Some top officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser, have been pushing for aggressive new action against Iran and its proxy forces — and see an opportunity to try to destroy Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq as leaders in Iran are distracted by the pandemic crisis in their country."  (NYT)

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Just what we and everyone in the region needs… another Iraq war. Al Masdar News reports that SecDef Esper has approved the new campaign or at least the planning for it. My fear is that Pompeo, O’brien and all the other neocon rat bastards have cracked the code on getting Trump to go along with this madness by lavishing him with the praise and adoration he so desperately desires. It reminds me of an old Abbott and Costello skit. “You bet you life me stinkah.”

TTG

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5MmxybEBM8 (You bet you life me stinkah.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/world/middleeast/pentagon-iran-iraq-militias-coronavirus.html

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-military-ordered-to-plan-for-major-escalation-with-iran-in-iraq-report/

Forward to the M-4!

Pompeo, the neocon in chief, continues to blame the SAG for all things not approved by the Ghost of McCain, but, never mind, the R+6 has calculated the intent of Turkey in Syria and the distance between the  Sultan and his jihadi pals. 

Based on this calculus the SAA is going to renew the offensive to move up to the line of the M-4 and take jisr-al-shugur back from the al-qa'ida affiliates who have held it for far too long.

One can only hope that the pro-government forces have "the juice" to move the ball that far.  pl

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-is-aiming-jisr-al-shughur-as-next-target-of-idlib-offensive/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/all-eyes-on-jisr-al-shughour-as-syrian-army-amasses-large-force-in-southwestern-idlib/

HTS has killed the "cease fire."

"Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has officially rejected the recent Russian-Turkish agreement on Greater Idlib, vowing to keep on fighting.
In an official statement, the terrorist group claimed that the agreement would allow the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces to resume military operation in the region. The group also noted that most of the agreement’s terms are “not implementable.”
“This agreement is tinged with ambiguity and loose, floating phrases that allow the Russian occupier to use it for aggression again, and there are also terms that cannot be implemented at all, in face, they are considered an insult and humiliation of the blood of the martyrs and the sacrifices of ten continuous years,” HTS’ statement, which was released on March 7, reads.
The terrorist group also thanked the Turkish government for directly engaging in the recent battle against the SAA and its allies in Greater Idlib
HTS concluded its statement by vowing to fight on against the SAA and its allies, promising that there will be “no peace or security” until the Syrian government is overthrown."  SF

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As I expected. this cease fire is merely a pause in the Idlib Province struggle.  HTS (al-Qa'ida) rejects the cease fire.  Therefore there is no cease fire.  The SAA and allies will use he pause to re-fit and rest units bloodied in the recent fighting and then a pretext will allow R+6 to resume operations intended to clear Idlib of the jihadis and Turks.  How long will the pause last.  It is impossible to say.  The frustration and rage of the war party in Washington and London must be impressive.

All the conspiracy minded drivel now being sent to SST is laughable. The situation is really quite simple.  Erdogan can hardly wait to fulfill his "destiny" as Sultan Caliph and mahdi of the Sunni world and his fantasy of a Europe included in the 'umma.  HTS is uninterested in his fantasy.  They have their own fantasy to fulfill.  pl 

https://southfront.org/surprise-al-qaedas-hts-rejects-russian-turkish-agreement-on-greater-idlib-vows-to-fight-on/

https://southfront.org/damascus-aleppo-highway-open-again-for-traffic-photos/

https://southfront.org/russian-forces-seized-toxic-chemicals-from-turkish-backed-militants-near-syrias-saraqib-report/

Would counter-battery attacks in Syria or Turkey trigger NATO Article Five? -revision 1

 

"This map provides a general look at the recent gains by Turkish-led forces in southern Idlib. The Turkish Army and its al-Qaeda-linked allies have retaken several villages from the Syrian army and beiseged the town of Kafr Nabul, which the Syrians had recently liberated from al-Qaeda."  SF

https://southfront.org/map-update-advances-of-turkish-led-forces-in-southern-idlib/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Turkish_Land_Forces

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IMO the gains made by the jihadis and the Turkish Army in Idlib Province are being made because of the masses of artillery weapons and multiple launcher rocket systems (MLRS) that the Turks were equipped with when they were a major factor in NATO plans to halt a possible Soviet attack in the Balkans and from the Caucasus.

A lot of these weapons are old but they still work well and have ranges that can influence the fighting in Syria from positions WITHIN Hatay Province, Turkey (what the Russians now call "the stolen province").   We are talking about 203 MM howitzers and 175 mm long rifles among other weapons.  I can tell you from personal experience that these are devastating weapons.

The appropriate military response to fires from such artillery and MLRS is COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE.  IOW the point of origin of the fires is determined virtually instantaneously by counter-battery radar or satellite observation (Russian) and fires are placed on the firing positions before the guns or MLRS can be moved.  This procedure would kill a lot of Turks and destroy a lot of their equipment.  IMO it would stop the present Turkish counter-offensive.  Could Fatih Sultan Tayyip politically survive such an experience?  Only Allah knows.

The NATO Treaty's Article Five provides for mutual defense against attacks from outside the alliance.  Would counter-battery fire against the Turks, if they are  firing into Syria, trigger Article Five?  I doubt that the Europeans would want to go to war against Russia to protect the sultan's ambitions.  Counter-battery fir against Turkish artillery operating INSIDE Syria would no be a political problem involving NATO.

The Turks must have moved some guns forward into Syria to support the Turco/jihadi force around Saraqib.  Some other group of heavy weapons  must be supporting the Turco/jihadi force near the northern el-Ghaab Plain.  Are they in Syria?  Maybe, but wherever they are, IMO they can be struck without fear of Article Five.

Would the Syrians then be attacked by US forces with or without Article Five?  Maybe they would be.  That would depend on the level of Pompeo's influence with the president.  pl 

Mr President! Pompeo wants a US War in Syria!

“This was and remains a bad idea,” said one of the people familiar with the discussions.  Turkey and the U.S. have a history when it comes to the Patriot. Over Washington's objections, Ankara last year received an advanced Russian S-400 missile-defense system that the U.S. considers a threat to the F-35 fighter jet and NATO air defenses. The U.S. had offered the Patriot as an alternative, but Turkey has committed to the Russian system. As a result, Washington kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program, for which it was both a customer and manufacturing partner.  A DoD spokesperson declined to comment. A spokesperson for Jeffrey referred POLITICO to a statement from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who on Friday condemned the attack and called on the Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian backers to cease their assault on Idlib. He noted that the U.S. is “reviewing options to assist Turkey against this aggression.”""  politico

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Idlib Governorate is Syrian territory.  The Syrian government is a member state of the UN.  The Russians are assisting the Syrian government at the request of that government.   "Fatih" Sultan Erdogan has introduced thousands of Turkish Army troops into northern Syria in what amounts to a neo-Ottoman land grab.

He has a major problem in that so far, neither the Turkish Army (TSK) nor their Sunni jihadi allies are fighting very well.  They have managed to re-capture the town of Saraqib on the four lane highway between Damascus and Aleppo, but for how long?  The SAA and their militia allies are massing to re-take the town.

To the west nearly all of Idlib Governorate south of the M-4 east-west highway is within artillery fire of the advancing SAA and at the northern end of the al-Ghaab Plain the spearheads are apparently within 6 miles of the M-4.  Assuming that the M-4 is the Turkish Main Supply Route (MSR) out of Hatay Province to the west, an SAA interdiction of that major road will imperil the Turkish led force around  Saraqib.  The Turks will then either withdraw from Saraqib or attack any SAA blockage of  the M-4 or both. In classic militaryspeak, the Turks would be said to have been "turned out" of their position at Saraqib by the SAA move onto the M-4 to the west.  The resulting engagement would be a desperate fight.  In the midst of this situation the Russian Aerospace expeditionary force would be heavily engaged.  

Mike Pompeo, Jeffrey, his henchman, and all the neocons in and out of the Borg (foreign policy establishment) want the US to become directly involved in this battle by providing Turkish forces in Syria air defense from US manned Patriot missile batteries.  The Turks could not man the systems themselves if we provided them.  They also want the US to declare a "no-fly zone" over Idlib Governorate.  Such a zone would be a declaration that the US and little friends would shoot down any military aircraft flying over this piece of Syrian territory without US permission.  This would be an act of war by the United States and would cause a de facto state of war to exist between the US and Russia.

The US Department of Defense thinks that such engagement on our part is a stupid neocon conception that has it roots in Israeli desire to destroy the Syrian Government, preferring to have a zone of warring factions where Syria once was, a Hobbesian scene of desolation and a war of all against all,  The Israeli idea is as stupid as that of the neocons.

President Trump, the Commander in Chief of the US armed forces, holds the sole power to decide.  Let us hope that he decides well.  pl 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/turkey-patriot-missiles-pentagon-118256

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turning_movement

The Failed Prognostications of Max Boot Regarding President Trump by Larry C Johnson

I stumbled across a Podesta email obtained by Wikileaks that is dated February 2016 and provides an amusing perspective on why the NeoCons and foreign policy establishment embodied by the likes of Mac Boot were so wrong about Donald Trump. It is especially delicious to read the disastrously wrong prognostications of Max Boot and Benn Steil three years into the Trump Presidency.

The story starts on 26 February 2016 when Been Steil sends an email containing a Weekly Standard article on Trump's policies that he co-authored with uber NeoCon, Max Boot,  to former North Carolina Senator, Erskine Bowles, who is closely tied to the Clintons. Bowles in turn sends the article to Clinton Campaign chair, John Podesta with the succinct message--"worth reading."

Let's dig in to the Boot/Steil piece. They start with this dig:

Following his primary victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, Donald Trump has established himself as the clear frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. He has done so offering grandiose slogans — He'll Make America Great Again (MAGA)! He'll have us win so much we'll get bored with winning!

Leave it to these two chuckleheads to fail to grasp Trump's sense of humor (i.e., getting bored with winning) and to understand that Trump was serious about MAGA.

“VIDEO of fake chemical attack in Syria already complete, White Helmets co-produced footage” - TTG

We all knew it was coming and RT has a preview of coming attractions.

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The White Helmets have shot a new fake video of 'Assad's chemical attack' in Syria's Idlib, the Russian MoD has said. The movie, co-produced by the notorious White Helmets, is expected to be released shortly on social media. Production of the new film was concluded on Tuesday in the village of Zerba, located in the militant-controlled part of Syria's Idlib province, the Russian Center for Syrian Reconciliation has said, citing several independent sources.

The video, shot by the notorious White Helmets group in cooperation with local terrorists, purports to show the aftermath of a "chemical attack" on civilians by Syria's government troops.

The footage, according to the MoD, shows 'rescuers' wandering around in a thick plume of "mustard-colored gas" and attending to the 'victims' of the staged "attack."  (RT)

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The usual suspects can be expected to be in high dudgeon shortly about the dastardly Assad regime. Among those suspects I expect to hear from that fat bastard Pompeo. He already issued a statement yesterday condemning “the continued, unjustifiable, and ruthless assaults on the people of Idlib.” 

Well, what else do they have? The jihadis are having no luck in stopping the SAA. They’re about to lose Saraqib and surely much more. The hastily established Turkish “observation posts” are certainly not intimidating the SAA. Erdogan’s hysterics about the crumbling Astana plan is falling on deaf ears in Moscow. Why not roll out that old “those monsters gassed us” routine once again. Yeah! That’s the ticket!

TTG

https://www.rt.com/news/480057-video-fake-chemical-attack/

https://www.rt.com/news/480004-syria-chemical-attack-warning/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-usa/u-s-condemns-idlib-assaults-stands-by-turkey-secretary-of-state-pompeo-idUSKBN1ZY2E5

 

The Strike - TTG

It’s been a good 48 hours since Iran’s missile strike at Ayn al-Assad and Erbil. Both Washington and Tehran stared into the abyss and did not like what they saw. We averted a full fledged shooting war through a little skill, a lot of fear and a healthy dose of luck. I’m sad to say that the skill was Iranian, particularly the skill of the IRGC Aerospace Force.

There is still no Western consensus on the number of missiles fired or what type were fired. Based on various reports, the IRGC Aerospace Force launched anywhere from ten to twenty two missiles. Most of the missiles were solid fueled one stage Fateh type SRBMs (short range ballistic missiles), either Fateh-313 or Zolfaghar. The Fateh-313 became operational in 2015 and has a 500 km range and is touted as being highly accurate due to Iranian advances in satellite guidance systems made in the last fifteen years. The Zolfaghar, developed from the Fateh-313, has a range of up to 800 km was introduced in 2016. Both these SRBMs have an estimated CEP (circular error probable) of 100 meters. In addition to the Fateh-313 or Zolfaghar SRBMs, a smaller number of Qiam-1 SRBMs were fired, probably at Erbil. The Qiam-1 is a liquid fuel SRBM with a range of 800 km, a payload of 750 kg and a CEP of 500 meters. The IRGC fired both Zolfagars and Qaiam-1s into the Deir ez-Zor region of Syria in June 2017 targeting IS jihadis. All these SRBMs are roughly equivalent to Russia’s Iskandar SRBM.

A CEP of either 100 or 500 meters is not pinpoint accuracy. But the Pentagon is saying that Iran intentionally missed US troops at the bases. This demonstrates one thing… Iran has a high degree of confidence in her missiles. You don’t launch  missiles over hundreds of miles, with the intention of deliberately missing your enemy’s troops, unless you are really confident in your missiles’ CEP. Last year’s DIA study on “Iranian Military Power” had this to say on the precision of Iranian missile forces.

“The use of improved guidance technology and maneuverability during the terminal phase of flight enables these missiles to be used more effectively against smaller targets, including specific military facilities and ships at sea,” the Defense Intelligence Agency said in its most recent assessment of Iran’s military. “These enhancements could reduce the miss-distance of some Iranian missiles to as little as tens of meters, potentially requiring fewer missiles to damage or destroy an intended target and broadening Iran’s options for missile use.”  (DIA)

Even so, I seriously doubt the IRGC made a special effort to not kill or injure Americans. Although it was not the primary objective of the strike, they certainly wouldn’t have cried over our casualties. However, Brigadier General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, Commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force did say during a press conference today that “the strikes were not meant to cause fatalities. We intended to deliver a blow to the enemy’s military machine.” He also said he fired only thirteen missiles, but prepared several hundred for launch. He was clearly not worried about some level of US casualties, not with the possibility of hundreds of missiles. He definitely got our attention and with only thirteen missiles and a threat to take the crazy train all the way to Hell if that's what we wanted. Even General Milley said he believed the attack was meant to be deadly. At least he got that right.

I was shocked that not one Iranian missile was intercepted. It appears CENTCOM did not even have a capability to intercept missiles at the Ayn al-Assad Air Base. That is military incompetence. A slew of officers should be relieved for that egregious incompetence including the CINC CENTCOM. No wonder the neocon wonder boys in the Pentagon and White House decided not to join the dance in the wee hours after the Iranian strike. Talk about scared straight.

Iran is not done. As General Hajizadeh said in today’s briefing, the strike “was the starting point of a great operation.” The Iranians and their regional allies are controlling the tempo of operations to their advantage. They will now fight us on their terms to pursue their immediate goal of removing our forces and influence from Iraq and Syria. As Colonel Lang said, we should get out of Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan and not stop there. We need to leave Israel, Jordan Saudi Arabia and Lebanon as well. 

TTG

https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/Iran_Military_Power_LR.pdf

https://southfront.org/top-irgc-commander-confirms-iranian-missile-strike-was-aimed-at-military-machine-not-troops/

Macgregor got it part right on Carlson's show last night

Colonel (ret.) Douglas Macgregor was on Tucker Carlson's show last night.  He is a smart man.  Tucker is a smart man. Carlson's show is an outpost of sanity in a neocon run US foreign policy establishment (the Borg).  Carlson deserves the ratings he gets.  I hope those will insulate him from the trepidation that his honesty must inspire in the Murdoch brothers.  The rest of Foxnews is much like a clown car show with the clowns clamoring for the approbation of the White House in their eagerness for a neocon war of conquest in the ME.  Some people never learn.  the last 20 years of disaster in the face of Islamic resistance to Western cultural imperialism have taught them nothing.

Trump started his term as an empty headed business hustler eager to make deals wherever he could and who correctly did not see much of anything to be gained by fighting endlessly all over the Islamic World to impose Israel's 1% policy of eliminating all possible threats from the Muslims.

Trump offered Iran peace negotiations in his post Iran strike speech?  No.  He did not.  He once again offered them the opportunity to surrender to Israeli demands relayed to them by the US.

Now, he is transformed into just another neocon, in fact the neocon in chief.  His foreign policy team is run by neocons and bootlickers who fear Pompeo's scorn.  The Defense part of that team is dominated by the Pompous one and his West Point classmate Esper at DoD.  General Milley and the other present chiefs of staff are carefully chosen to eliminate the possibility of "push-back" from the military. I retract anything bad I ever said about Joe Dunford.  I wish he were still here.

Trump is following the neocon/Ziocon line now.  He evidently believes any silly thing they tell him.  I understand that he has said that Soleimani was engaged in beheading Christians.  Well, pilgrims, if you look below about three posts you  will see a video of Soleimani and al-Muhandis being mourned by Christian clergy and congregations in Aleppo.  Of course, you actually have to understand some Arabic to get that from the video.  These Christians mourn these men as being among those who came to fight the Sunni jihadis at Aleppo.

Macgregor rightly understands that there is no there, there for the USA in the Middle East and Central Asia.  He correctly understands that to try to sort out all the intra-regional ethnic and sectarian rivalries is a fool's errand.  He correctly advocates complete withdrawal from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as does Tulsi Gabbard who was on the same show.

What Macgregor got wrong is that he wants to remain engaged in; Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the GCC generally.  Well, Doug, there is no there, there either.  There is no Soviet threat.  The USA is a net oil and gas exporter.  The Iranians have enemies and quarrels with the Saudis and the Israelis, but, so what?  We are not Israelis.  Neither are we Saudis.

You want to stay engaged in Yemen?  the country is full of nasty little hill men who live to fight.  This is a Saudi problem.

Let all the crazed creatures of that part of the world fight it out.  along the way they will come to muddled partial solutions that will last until the next round of hostility begins.  Tant pis pour eux.  pl

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-iraq-iran-donald-trump-leave-war

"Voices of Syria - Rev. Ibrahim Nseir of the Arab Evangelical Presbyterian Church of Aleppo"

https://youtu.be/bwA2Sfo3HIc

Tulsi Gabbard at the Presbyterian Church in Aleppo, Syria, 26 January, 2017

pl

Soleimani and Al-Muhandis are being mourned in Aleppo churches

(Tehran Armenian Cathedral)

Mike Pompeo was on the TeeVee today scoffing at those who do not agree with him and the Ziocon inspired "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran.  It must be a terrible thing for intelligence analysts of integrity and actual Middle East knowledge and experience to have to try to brief him and Trump, people who KNOW, KNOW from some superior source of knowledge that Iran is the worst threat to the world since Nazi Germany, or was it Saddam's Iraq that was the worst threat since "beautiful Adolf?"

The "maximum pressure" campaign is born of Zionist terrors, terrors deeply felt.  It is the same kind of campaign that has been waged by the Israelis against the Palestinians and all other enemies great and small.  This approach does not seem to have done much for Israel.  The terrors are still there.

Someone sent me the news tape linked below from Aleppo in NW Syria.  I have watched it a number of times.  You need some ability in Arabic to understand it.  The tape was filmed in several Christian churches in Aleppo where these two men (Soleimani and al-Muhandis) are described from the pulpit and in the street as "heroic martyr victims of criminal American state terrorism."  Pompeo likes to describe Soleimani as the instigator of "massacre" and "genocide" in Syria.  Strangely (irony) the Syriac, Armenian Uniate and Presbyterian ministers of the Gospel in this tape do not see him and al-Muhandis that way.  They see them as men who helped to defend Aleppo and its minority populations from the wrath of Sunni jihadi Salafists like ISIS and the AQ affiliates in Syria.  They see them and Lebanese Hizbullah as having helped save these Christians by fighting alongside the Syrian Army, Russia and other allies like the Druze and Christian militias.

It should be remembered that the US was intent on and may still be intent on replacing the multi-confessional government of Syria with the forces of medieval tyranny.  Everyone who really knows anything about the Syrian Civil War knows that the essential character of the New Syrian Army, so beloved by McCain, Graham and the other Ziocons was always jihadi and it was always fully supported by Wahhabi Saudi Arabia as a project in establishing Sunni triumphalism.  They and the self proclaimed jihadis of HTS (AQ) are still supported in both Idlib and western Aleppo provinces by the Saudis and the present Islamist and neo-Ottoman government of Turkey.

Well pilgrims, there are Christmas trees in the newly re-built Christian churches of Aleppo and these, my brothers and sisters in Christ remember who stood by them in "the last ditch."

"Currently there are at least 600 churches and 500,000–1,000,000 Christians in Iran." wiki below.  Are they dhimmis?  Yes, but they are there.  There are no churches in Saudi Arabia, not a single one and Christianity is a banned religion.  These are our allies?

Mr. Jefferson wrote that "he feared for his country when he remembered that God is just."  He meant Virginia but I fear in the same way for the United States.  pl

https://twitter.com/i/status/1214223383635857409

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_Iran

Trump moves to unite the Middle East! (irony)

Teevee coverage of the recent events in the ME has been predictable.  Those who hated Trump continue to hate him, etc. 

A few observations:

1. I had hoped that Trump's decision to kill an Iranian general engaged in a diplomatic mission (among other things) while the man was on the soil of a supposed ally of the US was something Trump pulled out of his fundament either inspired by war movies or on the recommendation of "our greatest ally" but I am informed that in fact some idiot in the DoD included this option in the list of possibilities that was briefed to the CinC in Florida.  The decision process in such matters requires that when options are demanded by the CinC the JCS prepares a list supported for each option by fully formulated documentation that enables the president to approve one (or none) and then sign the required operational order.  Trump himself chose the death option.  I would hold General Milley (CJCS) personally responsible for not striking this option from the list before it reached the CinC. 

2.  The Iranians are a subtle people.  IMO they will bide their time whilst working out the "bestest" way to inflict some injury on the US and/or Israel.  When the retaliation comes it will be imaginative and painful.

3.  Trump is  now threatening the Iraqis with severe sanctions if they try to enforce their parliamentary decree against the future presence of foreign (US mostly) troops on their soil.  IMO a refusal to leave risks a substantial Shia (at least) uprising against the US forces in Iraq.  We have around 5,500 people there now spread across the country in little groups engaged in logistics, intelligence and training missions.  They are extremely vulnerable.  There are something like 150 marines in the embassy.  There are also a small number of US combat forces in Syria east and north of the Euphrates river.  These include a battalion of US Army National Guard mechanized troops "guarding" Syria's oil from Syria's own army and whatever devilment the Iranians might be able to arrange.

4.  This is an untenable logistical situation.  Supply and other functions require a major airfield close to Baghdad.  We have Balad airbase and helicopter supply and air support from there into Baghdad is possible from there but may become hazardous.  Iraq is a big country.  It is a long and lonely drive from Kuwait for re-supply from there or evacuation through there.  The same thing is true of the desert route to Jordan.

5.  Trump's strategery appears to be based on the concept that the Iraqis will submit to our imperial demands.  "We will see."  pl

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-strike-live-updates/2020/01/06/3b5451f2-3024-11ea-9313-6cba89b1b9fb_story.html?rand=4

The threat of General Soleimani - TTG

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States had “clear, unambiguous” intelligence that a top Iranian general was planning a significant campaign of violence against the United States when it decided to strike him, the top U.S. general said on Friday, warning Soleimani’s plots “might still happen.”

Army General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a small group of reporters “we fully comprehend the strategic consequences” associated with the strike against Qassem Soleimani, Tehran’s most prominent military commander.

But he said the risk of inaction exceeded the risk that killing him might dramatically escalate tensions with Tehran. “Is there risk? Damn right, there’s risk. But we’re working to mitigate it,” Milley said from his Pentagon office. (Reuters)

—————

This is pretty much in line with Trump’s pronouncement that our assassination of Soleimani along with Iraqi General Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was carried out to prevent a war not start one. Whatever information was presented to Trump painted a picture of imminent danger in his mind. What did the Pentagon see that was so imminent? 

Well first let’s look at the mindset of the Pentagon concerning our presence in Iraq and Syria. These two recent quotes from Brett McGurk sums up that mindset. 

"If we leave Iraq, that will just increase further the running room for Iran and Shia militia groups and also the vacuum that will see groups like ISIS fill and we'll be right back to where we were. So that would be a disaster."

"It's always been Soleimani's strategic game... to get us out of the Middle East. He wants to see us leave Syria, he wants to see us leave Iraq... I think if we leave Iraq after this, that would just be a real disastrous outcome..."

McGurk played a visible role in US policy in Iraq and Syria under Bush, Obama and Trump. Now he’s an NBC talking head and a lecturer at Stanford. He could be the poster boy for what many see as a neocon deep state. He’s definitely not alone in thinking this way.

So back to the question of what was the imminent threat. Reuters offers an elaborate story of a secret meeting of PMU commanders with Soleimani on a rooftop terrace on the Tigris with a grand view of the US Embassy on the far side of the river.

—————

“In mid-October, Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani met with his Iraqi Shi’ite militia allies at a villa on the banks of the Tigris River, looking across at the U.S. embassy complex in Baghdad, and instructed them to step up attacks on U.S. targets in the country”

“Two militia commanders and two security sources briefed on the gathering told Reuters that Soleimani instructed his top ally in Iraq, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and other powerful militia leaders to step up attacks on US targets using sophisticated new weapons provided by Iran.”

“Soleimani’s plans to attack US forces aimed to provoke a military response that would redirect Iraqis' anger towards Iran to the US, according to the sources briefed on the gathering, Iraqi Shi’ite politicians and government officials close to Iraq PM Adel Abdul Mahdi.”

“At the Baghdad villa, Soleimani told the assembled commanders to form a new militia group of low-profile paramilitaries - unknown to the United States - who could carry out rocket attacks on Americans housed at Iraqi military bases.” (Reuters)

—————

And what were those sophisticated new weapons provided by Iran? They were 1960s Chinese designed 107mm multiple rocket launcher technology. These simple but effective rocket launchers were mass produced by the Soviet Union, Iran, Turkey and Sudan in addition to China. They’ve been used in every conflict since then. The one captured outside of the K1 military base seems to be locally fabricated, but used Iranian manufactured rockets. 

Since when does the PMU have to form another low profile militia unit? The PMU is already composed of so many militia units it’s difficult to keep track of them. There’s also nothing low profile about the Kata’ib Hizbollah, the rumored perpetrators of the K1 rocket attack. They’re as high profile as they come. 

Perhaps there’s something to this Reuters story, but to me it sounds like another shithouse rumor. It would make a great scene in a James Bond movie, but it still sounds like a rumor.

There’s another story put out by The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Although it also sounds like a scene form a James Bond movie, I think it sounds more convincing than the Reuters story. 

—————

Delegation of Arab tribes met with “Soleimani” at the invitation of “Tehran” to carry out attacks against U.S. Forces east Euphrates

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights learned that a delegation of the Arab tribes met on the 26th of December 2019, with the goal of directing and uniting forces against U.S. Forces, and according to the Syrian Observatory’s sources, that meeting took place with the commander of the al-Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassim Soleimani, who was assassinated this morning in a U.S. raid on his convoy in Iraq. the sources reported that: “the invitation came at the official invitation of Tehran, where Iran invited Faisal al-al-Aazil, one of the elders of al-Ma’amra clan, in addition to the representative of al-Bo Asi clan the commander of NDF headquarters in Qamishli Khatib al-Tieb, and the Sheikh of al-Sharayin, Nawaf al-Bashar, the Sheikh of Harb clan, Mahmoud Mansour al-Akoub, ” adding that: “the meeting discussed carrying out attacks against the American forces and the Syria Democratic Forces.”

Earlier, the head of the Syrian National Security Bureau, Ali Mamlouk, met with the security committee and about 20 Arab tribal elders and Sheikhs in al-Hasakah, at Qamishli Airport Hall on the 5th of December 2019, where he demanded the Arab tribes to withdraw their sons from the ranks of the Syria Democratic Forces.  (SOHR)

—————

I certainly don’t automatically give credence to anything Rami sends out of his house in Coventry. I give this story more credibility only because that is exactly what I would do if Syria east of the the Euphrates was my UWOA (unconventional warfare operational area). This is exactly how I would go about ridding the area of the “Great Satan” invaders and making Syria whole again. The story also includes a lot of named individuals. This can be checked. This morning Colonel Lang told me some tribes in that region have a Shia history. Perhaps he can elaborate on that. I’ve read in several places that Qassim Soleimani knew the tribes in Syria and Iraq like the back of his hand. This SOHR story makes sense. If Soleimani was working with the tribes of eastern Syria like he worked with the tribes and militias of Iraq to create the al-Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbi, it no doubt scared the bejeezus out of the Pentagon and endangered their designs for Iraq and Syria.

So, Qassim Soleimani, the Iranian soldier, the competent and patient Iranian soldier, was a threat to the Pentagon’s designs… a serious threat. But he was a long term threat, not an imminent threat. And he was just one soldier.The threat is systemic and remains. The question of why, in the minds of Trump and his generals, Soleimani had to die this week is something I will leave for my next post. 

A side note on Milley: Whenever I see a photo of him, I am reminded of my old Brigade Commander in the 25th Infantry Division, Colonel Nathan Vail. They both have the countenance of a snapping turtle. One of the rehab transfers in my rifle platoon once referred to him as “that J. Edgar Hoover looking mutha fuka.” I had to bite my tongue to keep from breaking out in laughter. It would have been unseemly for a second lieutenant to openly enjoy such disrespect by a PV2… and a troublemaking PV2 at that. God bless PV2 Webster, where ever you are.

TTG

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-usa-milley/top-u-s-general-soleimani-was-planning-campaign-of-violence-against-u-s-idUSKBN1Z222T

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-soleimani-insight/inside-the-plot-by-irans-soleimani-to-attack-u-s-forces-in-iraq-idUSKBN1Z301Z

http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=152158

"Latest situation in foreign forces deployment in Syria" Yeni Safak

"The U.S. forces evacuated 16 bases and military posts during Operation Peace Spring and returned to six bases as the operation was paused.

The U.S. army strengthened its military presence in Syria’s northeastern border and oil fields.

With five bases and military posts in Hasakah province, the U.S. forces are conducting efforts to set up two other military posts in Qahtaniyah town and Himo village in Qamishli city.

The U.S. aims to both secure oil fields in Hasakah and strengthen its presence on the Turkish border with the military posts.

The U.S. forces are currently deployed at 11 bases and military posts, including five in Hasakah, four in Deir ez-Zor and two in Raqqa.

They also carry out efforts to set up two new bases in Deir ez-Zor."  Yebi Safak

-----------

Yes, this newspaper is pro-Erdo but this looks like a useful map to lay out where everyone is at present.  The map does not extend far enough south to include the US roadblocking position at Al Tanf on the Syrian/Iraqi border but other than that- pretty complete.  pl

 

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/latest-situation-in-foreign-forces-deployment-in-syria-3507700

Our Embassy in Baghdad - TTG

I could never fully comprehend the logic behind our modern monument to imperialistic hubris that is our outsized Embassy in Baghdad. One would have to be a true believer in our God ordained manifest destiny to admire that monstrosity. Those types do exist. At one time the management coven at Defense HUMINT planned on establishing a massive operating base in that Embassy to control operations throughout the region. It was going to be Defense HUMINT forward... an outpost of the empire.

That embassy compound is once again becoming the focal point of our Mideast empire. Events of the last few days have seen to that. Last weekend, in response to a  rocket attack on a base outside Kirkuk that left one US contractor dead and four US servicemen wounded, we launched drone strikes on five Iraqi PMU outposts in Iraq and Syria near Abukamal killing 25 members and wounding scores more of the Kata’ib Hezbollah brigades of the PMU. 

We blamed Iran and the Kata’ib Hezbollah for the rocket attack near Kirkuk. That may be true, but the Kata’ib Hezbollah is not some rogue militia controlled out of Teheran. It is an integral part of the PMU, its 46th and 47th brigades and has been for years. The PMU is an integral part of the Iraqi military and has been for years. The PMU played a major role in defeating IS in both Iraq and Syria. Our attack on the Kata’ib Hezbollah outposts was an attack on the Iraqi military and government. We informed PM Abdul-Mahdi of our intended attacks. Abdul-Mahadi warned us not to do it, but, of course, we conducted the attacks despite his warning. We were proud of the attacks. The Pentagon even released footage of the attacks. It was supposed to be a clear message to Teheran.

Unfortunately for us, the message was also heard by Iraqis. After the funerals of many of the victims of our attacks on the PMU outposts, a large crowd of protestors headed for the US Embassy in the Green Zone. For weeks prior to this, Iraqi security forces kept protestors from entering the Green Zone and approaching the US Embassy. Not this time. The crowds, including mourners fresh from the funerals of their family members and many PMU soldiers, unarmed but in uniform, poured into the Green Zone right to the gates of the Embassy itself. A reception area was entered and burned. Iraqi security forces of the PrimeMinister’s Counter Terrorism Command were among the protestors. I surmise that PM Abdul-Mahdi was sending his own message back to the US.

Today, the PMU has told its troops to leave the vicinity of the Embassy as directed by the PM. Protests and rock throwings continue, but the Iraqi security forces are keeping a lid on the protestors more aggressive actions. The US sent an additional hundred Marines into the Embassy compound last night and appears to be also sending a battalion from the 82nd Airborne to the Embassy. (That shows just how oversized this Embassy is.)

For weeks, it was Iranian consulates and facilities that bore the brunt of Iraqi popular unrest. Iran reacted with restraint. With our lethal attacks on the Kata’ib Hezbollah, we changed that. Pompeo, Esper and Trump are keeping up the trash talking. Threatening Iran by killing Iraqis… whose ass was that brilliant diplomatic strategy pulled from?

I recommend an essay written by Haidar Sumeri on Sunday, before the protestors descended on the US Embassy, entitled “American Strikes in Iraq Have Just Made a Bad Situation Much Worse.” Sumeri is a long time commentator on regional issues, especially Iraqi security issues. His analysis is especially cogent given the events of the last two days. His writings may be worth following as this situation unfolds. 

TTG

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31651/u-s-strikes-iranian-proxy-force-bases-in-iraq-and-syria-following-deadly-rocket-attack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtRSIl2MAoQ  (Al Jazeera coverage of the protestors at the US Embassy with interesting commentary)

https://1001iraqithoughts.com/2019/12/30/american-strikes-in-iraq-have-just-made-a-bad-situation-much-worse/

The Afghanistan Papers - TTG

“A confidential trove of government documents obtained by The Washington Post reveals that senior U.S. officials failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan throughout the 18-year campaign, making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable.”

“The documents were generated by a federal project examining the root failures of the longest armed conflict in U.S. history. They include more than 2,000 pages of previously unpublished notes of interviews with people who played a direct role in the war, from generals and diplomats to aid workers and Afghan officials.”

“The U.S. government tried to shield the identities of the vast majority of those interviewed for the project and conceal nearly all of their remarks. The Post won release of the documents under the Freedom of Information Act after a three-year legal battle.”

“In the interviews, more than 400 insiders offered unrestrained criticism of what went wrong in Afghanistan and how the United States became mired in nearly two decades of warfare. With a bluntness rarely expressed in public, the interviews lay bare pent-up complaints, frustrations and confessions, along with second-guessing and backbiting.” (WaPo)

—————

Thus begins “The Afghanistan Papers: A secret history of the war,” a six part investigation put together by a team led by Craig Whitlock. Access to the first two parts and all the interview documents is available at the Washington Post without a paywall or article limitation. It took the Post three years and two lawsuits to get their hands on the interviews and records of the Congressional created Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). I found the scope of the deception and incompetence to be eye opening. Not unbelievable, just eye opening in its scope. Unfortunately, there was not a lot of coverage of this story outside of the WaPo series. It was lost in the waves of impeachment coverage.

I found the interview of Michael Flynn to be typical of the candid exasperation of those interviewed. By 2006 Flynn realized the war was useless. He said only a handful of US military and policy people could speak Dari or Pashto after years of war and that rosy assessments from operational commanders and policy people based on numbers and stats were produced at all levels. 

He’s right, except not everyone thought the war was useless by 2006. I was the Chief of our Afghan Task Force for a six month period that year. The detachment chiefs in country were still pretty optimistic, lured by the siren song of counterrorism. Of course we were expanding our presence back then. Maybe we did turn one of the never ending series of corners. But in a year or two, we would begin pulling back towards Bagram. After several years at war, we were still totally reliant on interpreters in both Afghanistan and Iraq. That’s shameful. There was a time when failure to operate in the host country and/or target country language would mean a quick trip back to become a lowly CONUS case officer. Assessments based on numbers and stats… welcome to PowerPoint nation. The Six Sigma mindset was rampant among our “management.” That gimmicky mindset is applicable to manufacturing widgets, not creating intelligence and foreign policy or fighting a war. No wonder we never had a clue in Afghanistan.

WHY WE PERSIST

The origin of the war was vengeance, pure and simple. Without the quick capture or killing of bin Laden, our vengeance was never fully satisfied. The eventual killing of bin Laden after waiting so many years didn’t satisfy our vengeance. It was too late. Our vengeance shriveled into boredom and indifference.

Since the generals and politicians couldn’t officially acknowledge that we went into Afghanistan seeking revenge, they offered a succession of reasons for being there from “fighting them there so we don’t have to fight them here” to fighting a full blown counterinsurgency and building a new Afghanistan and finally to bringing opportunity to young Afghan women. All these things we did in a half assed manner. We were never asked to pay the full price and make the WWII-like sacrifice to meet any of these goals so our boredom and indifference flourished.

THE FUTURE

Candidate Trump indicated very early on that he intended to withdraw from Afghanistan. Unfortunately, he soon succumbed to his advisors and generals advice of increasing troop strength in 2017 as part of a surge strategy. This makes him no better or worse than his two predecessors who succumbed to the same kind of advice.

However Trump has recently restarted negotiations with the Taliban and has renewed his pledged to remove several thousand troops. "We're going down to 8,600 [from the 12,000 and 13,000 US troops now there] and then we make a determination from there as to what happens," Trump told Fox last August. "We're bringing it down." Of course the drawdown will be seen by the neocons as a unilateral concession to the Taliban. That shouldn’t phase Trump. I think he plans to reannounce this withdrawal next month. DoD officials have said that the smaller US military presence will be largely focused on counterterrorism operations against groups like al Qaeda and IS, and that the military's ability to train and advise local Afghan forces will be reduced considerably. Sounds like they’re still looking for a reason to stay.

Trump can break the cycle. He holds no ideological conviction for staying in Afghanistan. If he could get over his BDS (Bezos derangement syndrome), he could seize this Washington Post series, or at least the SIGAR lessons learned reports, and trumpet them through his twitter feed and helicopter talks. I believe he alone can generate a public cry for getting the hell out of Afghanistan and carry through with that action no matter how much his generals scream about it. But without a loud public outcry, especially from his base, Trump has no incentive to break the cycle. So all you deplorables better start hootin’ and hollerin’. Hopefully enough SJWs will join you to pump up the volume.

TTG

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents/

"Joltin'" Jack Keane wants your kids to fight Russia and Syria over Syrian oil.

"Joltin" Jack Keane, General (ret.), Fox Business Senior Strategery Analyst,  Chairman of the Board of the Kagan run neocon "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW)  and Graduate Extraordinaire of Fordham University, was on with Lou Dobbs last night.  Dobbs appears to have developed a deep suspicion of this paladin.  He stood up to Keane remarkably well.  This was refreshing in light of the fawning deference paid to Keane by all the rest of the Fox crew.

In the course of this dialogue Keane let slip the slightly disguised truth that he and the other warmongers want to keep something like 200 US soldiers and airmen in Syria east of the Euphrates so that they can keep Iran or any other "Iranian proxy forces" from crossing the Euphrates from SAG controlled territory to take control of Syrian sovereign territory and the oil and gas deposits that are rightly the property  of the Syrian people and their government owned oil company.  The map above shows how many of these resources are east of the Euphrates.  Pilgrims!  It is not a lot of oil and gas judged by global needs and markets, but to Syria and its prospects for reconstruction it is a hell of a lot! 

Keane was clear that what he means by "Iranian proxy forces" is the Syrian Arab Army, the national army of that country.  If they dare cross the river, to rest in the shade of their own palm trees, then in his opinion the air forces of FUKUS should attack them and any 3rd party air forces (Russia) who support them

This morning, on said Fox Business News with Charles Payne, Keane was even clearer and stated specifically that if "Syria" tries to cross the river they must be fought.

IMO he and Lindsey Graham are raving lunatics brainwashed for years with the Iran obsession and they are a danger to us all.  pl

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/graham-fox-news-star-showed-trump-map-change-his-mind-n1069901

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry_in_Syria

Jubilation! - TTG

Damascus is on her way in achieving her ultimate goal of regaining control over all her territory and achieving peace thanks to VV Putin and the welcome and necessary assistance of DJ Trump. There’s no other way to put it. Elijah Magnier has summarized the current situation in a series of tweets this afternoon. If his summary is accurate, it is indeed good news. 

————

The Syrian Army is in Manbij now. Another Syrian Army force heading towards the Turkish advance supported by Syrian Kurds. 

It only needed the announcement of the US withdrawal to put the end of the war in Syria on a fast track in no time.

Kurds agreed on all requested points by Damascus and Russia is the guarantor. Kurds have become part of the Syrian security allied forces. The Syrian Army agreed to take in hand all ISIS prisoners, families and those on the run. Europe will have to deal with Damascus now. 

Breaking news: Syrian Army forces prepared to take control of Ayn al-Arab this evening.

FYI: SAA maintains forces in Qamishli along with some allies.

This situation - the withdrawal of US forces and its behaviour with Kurds after years of battles on the ground - will tremendously help Russia in confirming its credibility and commitment toward its allies and truthful partnership as a substitute to the untrustworthy US.

Important:  The advance of the Syrian Army doesn't mean a clash with the Turkish forces. Russia is reaching a comprehensive agreement with Turkey and Damascus to halt the military operation as soon as possible.

The main target is reached: the US forces out of Syria. Turkey feared a well-armed and powerful YPG, the PKK Syrian branch, previously supplied/protected by the US. Now that the US is pulling out, Damascus shall not allow any attack or threat against Turkey and won't accept an independent Rojava. Adana agreement is back on track

————

The SAA has just moved into Tabqa airbase.  “The Self-Administration of Northeast release[d] a statement that they call on Syrian army to protect the country's borders and preserve Syrian sovereignty & support SDF to repel Turkish aggression and liberate areas occupied by "Turkish army and its hired mercenaries" (from Wladimir Wilgenburg). My guess, though, is that the SDF will very soon cease to exist. Those forces will be integrated directly into the SAA or become NDF auxiliaries. The Kurds will not get their semi-autonomous Rojava, but they will be alive, living in their ancestral lands and under Damascus’ governance.

Neocons throughout the world will wail in the darkness and gnash their teeth. They will still blame Trump for “losing Syria.” But take it from me, someone who has absolutely no respect for the man, Trump done good. His willingness to work with Putin is making Syria a better place. Putin could not have orchestrated this without Trump’s willingness (or boldness) to buck the entire USG.  Good on him for this one, even if he may not have been aware of exactly what he did. He can chalk this up as a victory for the American people.

Even with this momentous turn of events, the SAA and Russia are not forgetting Idlib. Today a flight of eight Syrian attack helicopters tore the jihadis a new one outside Kabani. Russian Aerospace Forces also hit the area. This is in preparation for a renewed push in Latakia.

The photo at the top of this post is labeled Celebrations in Qamishli and Hasaka. People celebrating the "start of the deployment of the Syrian army to confront Turkish aggression". I think we should celebrate as well. I’m sure we’ll hear a lot more tomorrow.

TTG

Empty Desks at the NSC by Larry C Johnson

Looks like President Trump finally realizes that he is working in a snake pit. When he took office on January 20, 2017, he left an enormous cadre of Obama/Hillary sycophants in place. He could have (and should have) moved them out and reassigned them to the bureaucratic equivalent of Siberia. But he did not. Take the case of Tina Kaidanow, who headed up the Bureau of Counter Terrorism when Trump took over. Rather than asking for her resignation she was put in as the number two person in the Bureau of Political Military Affairs. 

In September 2018 Kaidanow got another promotion:

Ambassador Tina Kaidanow, a longtime State Department official and a key player in recent reforms to America’s arms sales process, is heading to the Pentagon.

Kaidanow will be crossing the river and entering the Pentagon as the next director of international cooperation, an office under the department’s reconstituted Acquisition and Sustainment office.

Tina Kaidanow

Tina is emblematic of the Deep State. I would not be surprised if her name surfaces in the Ukraine matter. She will do everything in her power, in my opinion, to sandbag Donald Trump.

Under President Obama the number of CIA officers "detailed" for temporary duty at the National Security Council swelled to around 200. That makes for an enormous number of bodies walking the halls of the Old Executive Office Building. When Donald Trump was inaugurated the CIA boosted the number to closer to 300. Gone are the old days when CIA officers eschewed partisan politics and focused on serving the elected President. The current crew is heavily politicized and most have an anti-Trump bias.

BOHICA! - TTG

The Rojava Kurds should have seen this coming. The US has a long standing tradition of abandoning Kurds. The abandonment is not the worst part of this policy decision. It is the decision to turn over the jihadis captured by US, YPG and SDF forces over the last few years to Turkey... just in time for Erdogan's announced invasion of northeast Syria. Those jihadis will be rearmed and sent into battle across northern Syria, including Idlib, by Erdogan. Ah, the dreams of a neo-Ottoman Empire are coming into focus.

It appears Fox News, the neocons and the old lady from South Carolina were blindsided by this move.

And while news of the U.S. pullout stunned Syrian Kurds, the announcement also "completely blindsided" top brass at the Pentagon, U.S. officials told Fox News.

Aside from the existential threat to the Kurdish fighters posed by Turkey, Syrian Kurdish forces are also warning that ISIS sleeper cells are actively plotting to free about 12,000 militants currently detained by the Kurds and may take advantage of the Turkey-triggered turmoil to aid their plans.

Those in custody include about 2,500 foreign fighters from Europe and elsewhere whose native countries have been reluctant to take them back — and about 10,000 other captured fighters from Syria and Iraq. (Fox News)

It is too bad Trump allowed himself to be talked out of leaving Syria back at the beginning of his term. That would have given the Kurds the incentive to make peace with Damascus and left a united R+6 in a better position to take on the jihadis and keep the Turks at bay. Trump's rationale of "withdrawing America from an endless war that does not serve US interests" is reasonable and worthy. But his timing is terrible, even characteristically cruel. Worse yet, he still plans on keeping the troops in Syria, just out of the way of the coming Turkish invasion. It's the worst of both worlds for everyone except Erdogan.

On a personal note, I find the treachery of this move to be shameful and abhorrent, not unexpected or without reason, but shameful and abhorrent. My 10th Group coin was vibrating in rage on the nightstand. 

TTG

https://www.foxnews.com/world/turkey-syria-isis-mass-prison-break-us-withdrawal

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7546419/Trump-defends-Syria-pullout-Graham-says-ISIS-defeat-Trumps-biggest-lie.html

 

Will Saudi Arabia survive the Yemen War? - Re-published 2 September 2016, Republished again 30 August 2019

(In light of; the decline in the economy of SA, the apparently successful Yemeni guided missile attack on Taif, SA (700 Km from the Yemen border), and the presence of Yemeni forces in the Asir Province of SA it seems appropriate to re-publish this post.  It was originally posted in April, 2015)

"Pakistan's parliament voted on Friday not to join the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, dashing Riyadh's hopes for powerful support from outside of the region in its fight to halt Iranian-allied Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia had asked fellow Sunni-majority Pakistan to provide ships, aircraft and troops for the campaign, now in its third week, to stem the influence of Shi'ite Iran in what appears to be proxy war between the Gulf's two dominant powers.

While Saudi Arabia has the support of its Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors, Pakistan's parliament voted against becoming militarily involved.

"(Parliament) desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis," it said."  Reuters 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0N10LO20150410

-------------------

IMO Saudi Arabia lacks the military capability to intervene successfully in Yemen.  This is equally true in what was North Yemen (YAR) and also in the former PDRY.  SA's armed forces were always built for show with a lot of expensive equipment that they were never capable of employing except at the elementary "stick and rudder" level of operations.  The maintenance contracts for all that equipment have always been impressive.   On the ground the Saudis possess a Wahhabi beduin manned force in the SANG that is designed to maintain population and territorial control and in its more modern parts to overawe the Twelver Shia majority population of the Eastern Province (where the oil and gas is located).  The rest of the Saudi Land Forces are pretty much a jobs program for poor people from the Asir and Najd regions.  In its warlike pronouncements thus far SA is mimicking the PR employed by he US, but such PR methods do not win wars against determined opponents.  Egypt is dragging its feet.  The coalition allies have contributed little except for the US.  pl

***********

"Ground troops would certainly face stiff resistance from the Houthi militiamen. Seasoned guerrilla fighters, they seized parts of southern Saudi Arabia during a brief war in 2009, killing over 100 Saudi troops.

Saudi Arabia has not ruled out a ground attack, but its allies appear wary of such a move. The kingdom has asked Pakistan to commit troops to the campaign, but that country is deeply divided over participating in an operation that could anger its own Shiite minority.

Though fraught with risk, continued airstrikes and a possible ground incursion may be the only choices that Saudi Arabia sees itself as having, said Imad Salamey, a Middle East expert at Lebanese American University. He said that officials in Riyadh probably are concerned that relenting could be perceived as weakness, especially by Iran."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/saudi-air-war-struggles-to-make-gains-as-yemen-fragments/2015/04/09/1a045766-ddf6-11e4-b6d7-b9bc8acf16f7_story.html

-----------------

IMO Saudi Arabia is headed for an embarrassing failure in Yemen, one that will reveal its true nature as a gang of nepotistic hedonists sitting on immense wealth.

What could be more tempting?  pl 

Gabbard was right about the USG and al-qa'ida

Tulsi Gabbard is being thrashed today in the Trump Is Always Perfect camp for saying that He is supporting AQ.  If she had expanded the accusation to include actions taken in the Obama administration she would have been exactly correct.

The Saudis, the Israelis and their acolytes among American neocons like the late, sainted John McCain, Sheldon Adelson, Lindsey Graham, Joe Lieberman, John Bolton and Pom Pom have long succeeded in using the madcap US policy of regime change in Syria as an excuse to fund jihadi groups in Syria.  There is a wide variety of these but the most obvious are the al-nusra front and hayat tahrir al-sham, both of which are branches of AQ in Syria.

Both CIA and the US armed forces have been and still may be supplying and funding these groups.  She was right.  She simply needed to explain herself better and not try to pin the blame solely on Trump who is largely an "absentee landlord" with regard to policy in the ME.  He has no policy in the ME.  Adelson, Natanyahu and Lindsey Graham have policy in the ME, but not Trump. pl

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tulsi-gabbard-defends-debate-claim-that-trump-supports-al-qaeda-to-shannon-bream

Hossein Salami calls it an intelligence war - TTG

We are still living under the cloud of a shooting war with Iran. Trump blows hot and cold. One day he declares he does not want a war and even wants to talk with the Iranian leaders. The next day (today actually) he threatens that he will end them as a nation. It’s hard to follow. 

Over the weekend, Colonel Lang pointed me to an opinion piece in the NYT. I found two on the subject. Maureen Dowd made the point that Trump doesn’t want a war. He wants maximum chaos leading to a negotiated good deal, just like he’s attempting with North Korea. The true danger is coming from that idiot Bolton. He doesn’t want chaos. He wants a shooting war and regime change. Ross Douthat is even more direct in his opinion piece, “Don’t Fight Iran.” Douthat also thinks Trump does not want a war, but notes Iran is not North Korea. War with Iran would be monumentally destructive and stupid. Hard to argue with that unless you’re Bolton or one of his neocon asshat compadres.

I found another article of interest coming out of Tehran rather than Gotham. It deals with comments made by the new IRGC commander, Major General Hossein Salami. He declared the US was already waging a full scale intelligence war against Iran.  

——————

TEHRAN (FNA)- Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami warned of the US full-scale intelligence war against Iran, saying that Tehran will defeat Washington in this front.

"We are able to defeat the enemy in intelligence war; breaking the enemy's will to use power means disarming the enemy," General Salami said, addressing the IRGC intelligence officials in Tehran on Saturday. He added that the range of the IRGC intelligence operations includes the Islamic Republic, the Islamic Revolution and the geography of threats against Iran.

General Salami warned that the US has launched a full-scale intelligence war against Iran which includes psychological and cyber operations, military moves, public diplomacy and induction of horror among people, meantime, saying that despite its ostentatious appearance, the US is suffering from "osteoporosis".

"Our other enemies act based on rules, similar to the US, and whenever they feel danger, they stay away from us. They believed that the more they increased the pressures, the more the Iranians more be reluctant to show reaction, but the Islamic Republic caused a collapse of their assumptions by means of its recent decision-makings and moves," he explained.

In relevant remarks on Wednesday, General Salami underlined that the enemies of Iran have exhausted all their attempts to defeat the country but in vain, adding that they have reached the end of line. "Our enemies have reached the end of the line", General Salami said, addressing the IRGC commanders. "This is the most decisive moment for the Islamic Revolution, because the enemy has come to the battlefield with all of its capacities at its disposal," he added.

General Salami also warned that Iran is "on the verge of a full-scale confrontation" with the enemies," adding that they are trying to crush the Iranian nation's resistance through "the strategy of maximum pressure and by using all of their capacities". However, they will fail once again to achieve their goal, he stressed.  (FARS)

——————

I like Salami’s characterization of the present situation as an intelligence war. For someone steeped in unconventional warfare, intelligence collection operations and various aspects of information operations, it’s a comfortable place to be. Too bad I have no idea of the nuances of what this means in Farsi. Salami said this type of war includes “psychological and cyber operations, military moves, public diplomacy and induction of horror among people.” And that bit about the "range of the IRGC intelligence operations" is certainly intriguing... confusing, but intriguing. Again, studying this in Farsi would be most interesting.

The danger in this characterization is that the current IRGC commander already considers us to be at war. It’s just a matter of degree. And a dangerous place to be with a blustering bluffer for a president and a warmongering fool as a presidential advisor.

TTG

"Will Trump be the Sage One?" by Maureen Dowd

"Don’t Fight Iran" by Ross Douthat

"IRGC Top Commander: Iran Able toDefeat US in Intelligence War" in FARS News Agency

The tanker damage in the Gulf was probably a "provocation" aimed at Iran.

"The revisions were ordered by hard-liners led by John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser. They do not call for a land invasion of Iran, which would require vastly more troops, officials said.

The development reflects the influence of Mr. Bolton, one of the administration’s most virulent Iran hawks, whose push for confrontation with Tehran was ignored more than a decade ago by President George W. Bush.

It is highly uncertain whether Mr. Trump, who has sought to disentangle the United States from Afghanistan and Syria, ultimately would send so many American forces back to the Middle East."  NY Times

"It is also unclear whether the president has been briefed on the number of troops or other details in the plans. On Monday, asked about if he was seeking regime change in Iran, Mr. Trump said: “We’ll see what happens with Iran. If they do anything, it would be a very bad mistake.”

There are sharp divisions in the administration over how to respond to Iran at a time when tensions are rising about Iran’s nuclear policy and its intentions in the Middle East."  NY Times

-------------

IMO the armed forces (persons unknown therein) leaked the base information in this article to the NY Times to warn Trump of the wild eyed foolishness of the crew he has allowed to run US foreign policy.

In the information briefing (as opposed to a decision briefing) described in this article concerning military options, Trump was not even present. 

What has happened once again is that Bolton asked DoD for options for the president/CinC's contemplation.  As I have written in the last days, neither Bolton nor Pompeo has any command authority over the armed forces.  Neither does Haspel at CIA.  Only the president can command them.  Only he has the constitutional authority to do so.

IMO the neocon squeeze with regard to Iran is in high gear.  The aim is probably to pressure Iran until they lash out somewhere against US forces or interests. 

Trump would then be urged by the madmen in the White House to order the armed forces to attack.  pl

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

It’s time for Trump to stop John Bolton and Mike Pompeo from sabotaging his foreign policy | Mulshine

"I put that question to another military vet, former Vietnam Green Beret Pat Lang.

“Once he’s committed to a war in the Mideast, he’s just screwed,” said Lang of Trump.

But Lang, who later spent more than a decade in the Mideast, noted that Bolton has no direct control over the military.

“Bolton has a problem,” he said. “If he can just get the generals to obey him, he can start all the wars he wants. But they don’t obey him.”

They obey the commander-in-chief. And Trump has a history of hiring war-crazed advisors who end up losing their jobs when they get a bit too bellicose. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley comes to mind."

" In Lang’s view, anyone who sees Trump as some sort of ideologue is missing the point.

“He’s an entrepreneurial businessman who hires consultants for their advice and then gets rid of them when he doesn’t want that advice,” he said.

So far that advice hasn’t been very helpful, at least in the case of Bolton. His big mouth seems to have deep-sixed Trump’s chance of a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. And that failed coup in Venezuela has brought up comparisons to the failed Bay of Pigs invasion during the Kennedy administration."  Mulshine

--------------

Well, pilgrims, I worked exclusively on the subject of the Islamic culture continent for the USG from 1972 to 1994 and then in business from 1994 to 2006.  I suppose I am still working on the subject.  pl

https://www.nj.com/opinion/2019/05/its-time-for-trump-to-stop-john-bolton-and-mike-pompeo-from-sabotaging-his-foreign-policy-mulshine.html

Targeting Hizbullah - TTG

Last week Colonel Lang told us of the latest Middle Eastern goofiness of the Trump administration focusing on our declaring the IRGC a terrorist organization and Pompeo’s truly zany effort to turn the Lebanese government against Hizbullah. If not for the deadly seriousness of the potential consequences, our efforts to reshape the Middle East would be fodder for several Monty Python skits.

Why are we doing this? Well, there is the longstanding neocon addiction to treating the entire world as our personal plaything. There is also the unhealthy hold the Israelis and Saudis have on our body politic. Reinforcing this hold is the drive to hasten the rapture among large segments of the American evangelical community. I don’t think I’m alone in seeing this as a dangerous situation.

Pompeo’s latest buffoonery lead Colonel Lang and myself to wonder if the US and Israel are planning to take out the Hizbullah missile threat. That Hizhullah threat remains a knife in the heart of Israel’s myth of invulnerability. This threat is discussed in a JINSA opinion piece that appeared last month in “The Hill.” The JINSA piece called for US sanctions against Hizbullah-controlled Lebanese ministries. We’ll see if the US tries this approach now that Pompeo’s effort to convince Michel Aoun to turn his back on Hizbullah ended in abject failure. I’m sure the Pentagon has developed plans to attack Hizbullah’s missile arsenal. The Pentagon has plans foreverything. I’m also pretty damned sure these plans depend on first goading Hizbullah and/or the IRGC into providing a pretense for such an attack. Good luck with that. Not only are Hizbullah and the IRGC extraordinarily disciplined, but they also have non-kinetic ways of reacting to Western goading.   

—————

Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah slammed the U.S. decision to designate the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group, saying that Washington’s “audacity and folly” went beyond limits. “Blacklisting the IRGC is an evidence that it is strong and not weak and this is an expected move by the Great Satan,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech commemorating the day of “Resistance Wounded Fighters” on April 10.

Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the U.S. has blacklisted the IRGC, citing alleged terrorist activists by the Iranian group as a reason. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council retaliated to Washington’s decision by labeling the U.S. Army military as terrorist organization.

Nasrallah warned that Hezbollah and its allies from the so-called “axis of resistance” will not continue to deal with the U.S. hostile moves with “condemnation, denouncement and patience.” The Lebanese leader said the axis has other options on all battlefields. “Our choices are open but we will act calmly, with a cool head and at the right time, in all battlefields and arenas,” said Nasrallah.

The Hezbollah leader’s warning confirms the fears of some U.S. officials, who had warned that designating the IRGC as a terrorist group could endanger U.S. troops deployed in the Middle East. Despite this some experts openly state that the administration of US President Donald Trump is moving towards an escalation scenario because it contributes to its current political interests.  (South Front)

—————

I’m sure Nasrallah’s mention of “all battlefields and arenas” goes far beyond a targeting of US troops in the region. That would be unimaginative and exactly what the neocons desire. The old quote is “living well is the best revenge.” I think that’s the plan. “South Front” says that a strategic cooperation among Iran, Iraq and Syria on various projects is a nightmare for the US and Israel. Baghdad and Damascus will soon open the al Qaim crossing and, along with Tehran, plan on linking their national railways. China is interested in joining this as an extension of their One Belt, One Road initiative. Russia plans to assist Lebanon in the development of her offshore oil and gas fields. Of immediate importance Russia is moving to help resettle the 1.5 million Syrian refugees now living in Lebanon. That’s 1.5 million in a country with a population of six million. Now that’s a refugee crisis. This is of critical importance since Aoun has no intention of assimilating those refugees into Lebanese society given recent history and the nature of Lebanon’s political system.

Would Russia extend her defensive umbrella to include Lebanon if we attacked Hizbullah? Perhaps, but only reluctantly. Russia does not want a wider war. Syria, however, may be more ready to assist if needed. She owes Hizbollah. Even if Russia is reluctant to launch missiles against US and Israeli aircraft, she may be far less reluctant to employing her formidable radio-electronic combat capabilities. That alone could blunt the effectiveness of an attack on Hizbullah facilities.

In short, I feel an effective US-Israeli attack on Hizbullah missile forces is a pipe dream. Hizbullah won’t be goaded and Russian-Syrian aid, even limited aid, could make such an attack ineffective. Unfortunately, I don’t have confidence in the Trump administration’s ability to grasp this reasoning. 

TTG 

https://southfront.org/nasrallah-slams-u-s-blacklisting-of-irgc-says-washington-moves-will-not-remain-without-a-response/

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/435014-us-should-sanction-hezbollah-controlled-govts-to-counter

https://southfront.org/us-and-israel-nightmare-scenario-iraq-syria-iran-restart-their-strategic-cooperation-projects/

The Monroe Doctrine Revisited - TTG

WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - A Russian military contingent that arrived in Venezuela over the weekend, drawing U.S. condemnation, is believed by the U.S. government to be made up of special forces including "cybersecurity personnel," a U.S. official told Reuters on Tuesday. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the United States was still assessing the Russian deployment, which Washington has called a "reckless escalation" of the situation in Venezuela.

Two Russian air force planes landed outside Caracas on Saturday carrying nearly 100 Russian troops, according to local media reports, two months after the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump disavowed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela's government has confirmed two planes landed from Russia at the weekend and were authorized by Maduro but has given no more details.

The Trump administration has recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country's legitimate president and demands that Maduro step down. Russia has described this as a U.S.-backed coup against the socialist government.

The U.S. determination that the Russian contingent includes cybersecurity specialists suggests that part of their mission could be helping Maduro's loyalists with surveillance as well as protection of the government's cyber infrastructure.  (Reuters)

——————

The Antonov-124 transport and Ilyushin-62 passenger jet landed in Caracas with 100 Russian troops and technical specialists and 35 tons of equipment. The group was led by General Vasily Tonkoshkurov, the Chief of Staff of the Russian ground forces. I would imagine the Russian troops include a contingent of the polite green men to advise Maduro’s security forces and perhaps assist in conducting counterterrorist operations as needed against any mercenaries in country associated with Guaido and the US-backed coup attempt. The Russians may also include specialists to train and assist the recent Venezuelan S-300 deployments at an airbase just south of Caracas. 

Naturally Pompeo and Bonkers Bolton are raising holy hell about the Russian presence and making all manner of bombastic threats. It doesn’t appear they are doing this on their own. “You will find no safe harbor, no easy exit and no way out. You will lose everything,” Trump said in a speech at Florida International University in Miami on 18 February. “We seek a peaceful transition of power, but all options are open.” On the same day he tweeted “I ask every member of the Maduro regime: End this nightmare of poverty, hunger and death. LET YOUR PEOPLE GO. Set your country free! Now is the time for all Venezuelan Patriots to act together, as one united people. Nothing could be better for the future of Venezuela!” At a White House photo op with Guaido’s wife today, Trump said “Russia has to get out.” He continued “If Russia doesn't leave Venezuela, we'll see. We'll see. All options are open ... all options are open." Trump appears to be all in on this one.

I doubt the tough talk from Washington is going to sway Putin. Moscow has decided that Venezuela and Maduro’s government are important and is acting accordingly. Lavrov has scheduled coordination meetings in Moscow on 3 April to sign some 20 accords in the fields of defense, energy, the economy, trade and education. They are not about to let things fester as they did in Ukraine and Syria. This Guaido thing is going to be nipped in the bud. 

TTG   

http://news.trust.org/item/20190326190043-kd9u0

AG Barr's Letter to Judiciary Committees, March 24, 2019

 

Decameron

“The Special Counsel’s investigation did not find that the Trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with Russia in its efforts to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election. As the report states: `[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.' |”

                                From page one of the Barr letter to the Democratic and Republican leaders of the House and Senate Judiciary Committees.

https://www.scribd.com/document/402973432/AG-March-24-2019-Letter-to-House-and-Senate-Judiciary-Committees#from_embed

 

Some call this merely the "end of the beginning."  Further revelations will be emerging, including from Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz. "Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz confirmed Thursday his office is still investigating possible abuse of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act by the DOJ and FBI in their investigation into President Trump and associates of his 2016 campaign," reported the Washington Examiner this week. 

 

Is this the Trump Doctrine? - TTG

Many of us, actually most of us, were pleased with candidate Trump’s declared intent to end our involvement in endless foreign interventions. He would put America first and refrain from sending our troops where they don’t belong. Once elected, his record was mixed. We launched an ineffective volley of cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase in response to a trumped up gas attack, but we never sought to establish a no fly zone and risk war with Russia. For a while we were well on our way to establish an enduring client state in east Syria. We assumed this was all the doing of the cabal of manipulating neocons that Trump surrounded himself with. His call for immediate withdrawal of troops from Syria surely proved this true. Finally Trump was allowed to be Trump. He was even seeking a way out of Afghanistan, after a literal lifetime of war in that godforsaken land.

The neocons are fighting back bigly. The pace of withdrawal from Syria was slowed and there is no indication we would ever give up our outpost on the Baghdad-Damascus highway at Tanf. Why? I think Trump laid out HIS thoughts on the matter during the traditional pre-super bowl presidential interview.

————

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We have to protect Israel. We have to protect other things that we have... 

MARGARET BRENNAN: But you want to keep troops there [Iraq] now?

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP:  [W]e spent a fortune on building this incredible base. We might as well keep it. And one of the reasons I want to keep it is because I want to be looking a little bit at Iran because Iran is a real problem.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Whoa, that's news. You're keeping troops in Iraq because you want to be able to strike in Iran?

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: No, because I want to be able to watch Iran. All I want to do is be able to watch. We have an unbelievable and expensive military base built in Iraq. It's perfectly situated for looking at all over different parts of the troubled Middle East rather than pulling up. And this is what a lot of people don't understand. We're going to keep watching and we're going to keep seeing and if there's trouble, if somebody is looking to do nuclear weapons or other things, we're going to know it before they do.

————

So, We are staying in Iraq to keep an eye on Iran and we are doing this to protect Israel. It was not any of the neocons who said this. It was Trump himself. So much for America first. There also appears to be an effort to keep the Rojava Kurds as a proxy force after our troops withdraw to Iraq. We continue sending combat and engineering equipment into Rojava and fully intend to continue providing air support to the YPG. We just can’t let it go.

However, Baghdad has thrown a monkey wrench into this developing Trump doctrine. Iraqi President Barham Salih has told Trump to slow his roll.

————

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi President Barham Salih said on Monday that President Donald Trump did not ask Iraq’s permission for U.S. troops stationed there to “watch Iran.”

Speaking at a forum in Baghdad, Salih was responding to a question about Trump’s comments to CBS about how he would ask troops stationed in Iraq to “watch” Iran. U.S. troops in Iraq are there as part of an agreement between the two countries with a specific mission of combating terrorism, Salih said, and that they should stick to that.  (Reuters)

————

I see a confrontation in our future, especially with all the Iraqi PMS units in western Iraq.

TTG

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-president-trump-on-face-the-nation-february-3-2019/ 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-iraq/iraqi-president-says-trump-did-not-ask-permission-to-watch-iran-idUSKCN1PT0E4

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/us/politics/trump-iraq-troops-syria-iran.html

The H-4 airbase in Jordan

"This airfield was built to support the H4 oil pumping station of the Mosul–Haifa oil pipeline built by the Iraq Petroleum Company between 1932 and 1934 in the Emirate of Transjordan at that time a protectorate of the British Empire. The airfield was used by the RAF during World War Two as the Advanced Headquarters for operations against the rebels in Iraq during the Anglo-Iraqi War. The Airbase is now operated by the Royal Jordanian Air Force.^[1]

Between November 2014 and January 2015, the United States began positioning MQ-9 Reaper UAVs at the base.^[1]

The base also houses AH-1F Cobras, believed to be from the 10th and 12th Squadrons of the Royal Jordanian Air Force, and a Cessna 208B Caravan from the 15th Squadron.  wiki

-------------

As air bases go in the ME this is an old one.  It was probably originally a highway landing strip built by the RAF during the British mandates in Palestine, Transjordan and Iraq.  It was built along the line of the Iraq Petroleum Company pipeline and road from Kirkuk to Haifa.  The town is a few kilometers south of the air base.  It has an official name but in my time out there the Jordanian beduin just called it "ashfour,"  (H4). 

This base has been much improved and expanded since 9/11 with American money.  IMO this is probably the base that Trump referred to last week when he said he would move a lot of the SOF people to an airbase outside Syria.  It is a good operating location, protected by the excellent Jordanian military and within easy operating range of Syria 80 kilometers away.

Combined with the US forces at al-asad airbase in Iraq (where Trump visited) and the artillery and road blocking positions that I posted on as linked,  this would IMO constitute a viable base situation in that part of the ME for continued CT operations rather than the Neo-imperialism of the neocons both in and out of uniform.

I took a delegation of West Point cadets to Jordan during the time I taught there.  We visited Qasr Burqa , a Roman Army auxiliary cohort fort about 20 kilometers NW of "ashfour."  We had a Jordanian Badia (desert) policeman with us and a sergeant from the USDAO in Amman.  It is a lovely place with a little lake that is a stop on the Russia to Africa flyway for migratory birds.  They come there in millions, ducks, ducks everywhere.  Sir John Bagot Glubb told me (RIP) that he spent many happy times at Qasr Burqa.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-4_Air_Base

https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/12/httpswwwalmasdarnewscomarticleus-builds-two-military-bases-along-syrian-border-map.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Haifa_oil_pipeline

The Fortunes of War - four killed in Manbij

(a Templar - We had ours too)

"Two U.S. service members, one Department of Defense (DoD) civilian and one contractor supporting DoD were killed and three service members were injured in the recent attack in the northern Syrian city of Manbij, the U.S. Army Central Command (CENTCOM) announced at the late hours of January 16.

“Initial reports indicate an explosion caused the casualties, and the incident is under investigation,” CENCTOM said in a short press release.

Earlier, ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack and revealed that it was carried out by a suicide bomber named “Abu Yasin al-Shami.” According to local sources, al-Shami blew himself up in a patrol of the US-led coalition in front of the Prince Restaurant in the center of Manbij.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the attack could be meant to dissuade the U.S. from leaving Syria. However, he stressed that he believes in President Donald Trump’s determination to withdraw troops from Syria.

This was the bloodiest attack against US-led coalition troops in Syria since the beginning of the war on ISIS in 2014. Prior to it, the terrorist group’s cells targeted Kurdish fighters and prominent local figures mostly."  SF

------------

Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you.

Senator Rand Paul tried to explain to the Fox and Friends people today that, as George Carlin used to say, "These are ancient feuds, now fought with better weapons."  Well, maybe a suicide belt is not all that much better a weapon but you get the idea.  Senator Paul attempted to make the point that the peoples of the region however divided tribally, religiously, politically, have a strong inclination to fight each other on a zero sum game basis.  Where this is not true that change is usually the result of foreign influences that have altered the pattern.  Brian Kilmeade the loudest and most simian of the morning crew on Fox attempted to shout down the senator with the usual hyper-aggressive drivel about fighting in Manbij rather than Bayonne, but Paul persisted and Kilmeade finally shut up, probably after a producer spoke to him.  Some of these men on Fox need a white plastic pocket protector to complete their costuming as tribunes of the Deplorables.

Paul's essential point was correct.  This was the simple fact that there will always be Islamic extremists of various sectarian allegiance in the ME.  Should we be surprised that there are IS stay behinds in northern Syria?  We should not be. 

Trump is correct.  Get the hell out and let the Russians try to make peace in Syria.  pl

https://southfront.org/u-s-army-central-command-reveals-details-of-manbij-attack/

We haven't shot anyone lately for treason ...

"Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) personnel captured five foreign fighters of ISIS who were trying to target the civilians fleeing the terrorist group’s territory in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, the US-backed group announced in an official statement on January 6.

The foreign terrorists were identified as:

-34-year old Warren Christopher Clark, known as Abu Mohammad al-Ameriki, from Houston, U.S.;
-35-year old Zaid Abed al-Hamid, known as Abu Zaid al-Ameriki, from the U.S."  SF

https://southfront.org/syrian-democratic-forces-captures-five-foreign-terrorist-including-two-americans-in-euphrates-valley/

**********

"Definition: In Article III, Section 3 of the United States Constitution, treason is specifically limited to levying war against the US, or adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort. Conviction requires two witnesses or a confession in open court.

Penalty: U.S. Code Title 18: Death, or not less than 5 years' imprisonment and not more than life imprisonment without the possibility of parole (minimum fine of $10,000, if not sentenced to death). Any person convicted of treason against the United States will permanently lose the right to ever hold or run for public office anywhere in any capacity within the United States."   wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treason_laws_in_the_United_States

------------

These two men should be made an example of.

They should be transferred to US custody AFTER BEING MIRANDIZED.   Do not interrogate them for intelligence in the field.  If you do, you will risk invalidating evidence that can be admitted in an Article 3 US court.  In the early post 9/11 confusion John Lindh was captured while incapacitated at mazar-i-sharif .  He was eventually charged with a mish-mash of offenses and tried with evidence that had been contaminated by non judicial system contact with him when first captured.  He is presently in federal prison but declares that he will return to the fight when released.

Let us not make the mistake again of making that possible.  pl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Walker_Lindh#Trial

"Whither the Kurds?" Dorsey

"Kurdish hopes are often vested in predictions articulated by former CIA and National Security Agency director Michael Hayden that “Iraq no longer exists, Syria no longer exists”[v][5] as well as the disintegration of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia in the wake of the demise of communist rule. That remains a possibility but more realistic is the fact, at least in the immediate future, the Syrian and Iraqi states as they existed in the past are more likely to change rather than dissolve. The lesson of the 2017 Iraqi Kurdish referendum and the fact that the Iraqi state has already demonstrated resilience in surviving and its Syrian counterpart may well do so too, means that Kurds will have to strive for some autonomous accommodation within a federal structure."  Dorsey

------------

Dorsey's main points are that the Kurds of Iraq and Syria have been taught valuable even if painful lessons:

1.  The United States has been and remains committed to the existence of the post World War One geographical constructs that are the Iraqi and Syrian states.  In the heady atmosphere that accompanied the "Arab Spring," revolts which were largely supported by the Obama Administration, and the decades long flirtation of the US Borg (foreign policy establishment) with the Kurds, the Kurdish people conceived the idea after 9/11 that the US would support them in resistance to non-Kurdish governments in Iraq and Syria even unto support for Kurdish independence and full Kurdish control of petroleum resources in their parts of these countries. 

2.  They have been shown to be wrong in that hope.  The devotion and reverence of the US Borg for the supposed sanctity of international borders and the existence of what is conceived by the Borg to be to an international order in which those borders cannot ever be changed has proven to be much stronger than any other factors including the lure of concessionary contracts in oil and gas from new Kurdish states.

3.  The United States is not a reliable ally in any cause not generally thought to be a struggle against a possibly fatal threat to the US as a country.  The citizenry of the US simply have no interest in less than total wars waged against what is conceived of as great evil.  The Borg understands this disinterest by the public in what the Borg thinks of as a desirable set of tools in the "game of nations." Because of that phenomenon great efforts have been made in IO to sell the Borg Wars as existential for the US.  The American people now see through that deception and Trump has acted on this conviction that he shares with the people.  In that context betrayal of the Kurds has become a necessary evil.

4.  Neither the Kurds not any other hapless minority people will ever have the grip on the collective imagination of the American People and the Congress that Israel has.  pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/whither-the-kurds/

Trump Fought For His Withdrawal For a Year by Willy B

Gareth Porter, in an article published in the American Conservative, definitively shows that Trump's Dec. 19 announcement of the US withdrawal from Syria was, in fact, the end of a fight of at least a year, between Trump on the one side and his national security team, lead by Mattis and Dunford on the other. Published accounts of the policy process over the past year "show that senior national security officials and self-interested institutions have been playing a complicated political game for months aimed at keeping Trump from wavering on our indefinite presence on the ground in Syria," Porter writes. "The entire episode thus represents a new variant of a familiar pattern dating back to Vietnam in which national security advisors put pressure on reluctant presidents to go along with existing or proposed military deployments in a war zone. The difference here is that Trump, by publicly choosing a different policy, has blown up their transparent schemes and offered the country a new course, one that does not involve a permanent war state."

Porter cites an April 2018 Associated Press account of an NSC meeting at which Trump's impatience with his national security team boiled over. At that meeting, Trump ordered them unequivocally to accept a fundamentally different Syria deployment policy. Instead, they framed the options as a binary choice—either an immediate pullout or an indefinite presence in order to ensure the complete and permanent defeat of Islamic State. Mattis and Dunford, Porter continues, were consciously exploiting Trump's own defensiveness about a timeline–he had attacked Obama during the 2016 campaign for imposing a timeline in Afghanistan–"to press ahead with their own strategy unless and until Trump publicly called them on it."

"The Syria withdrawal affair is a dramatic illustration of the fundamental quandary of the Trump presidency in regard to ending the state of permanent war that previous administrations created. Although a solid majority of Americans want to rein in U.S. military deployments in the Middle East and Africa, Trump's national security team is committed to doing the opposite," Porter concludes. "Trump is now well aware that it is virtually impossible to carry out the foreign policy that he wants without advisors who are committed to the same objective. That means that he must find people who have remained outside the system during the permanent war years while being highly critical of its whole ideology and culture. If he can fill key positions with truly dissident figures, the last two years of this term in office could decisively clip the wings of the bureaucrats and generals who have created the permanent war state we find ourselves in today."

Trump has called the bluff of the permanent warfare crowd and now has his decision, but the possibility of sabotage by that crowd's assets inside the Pentagon cannot yet be discounted. This is indicated by an exclusive Reuters report claiming that planners at the Pentagon are proposing that the YPG be allowed to keep the heavy weapons that the US has supplied it with, though Reuters' sources stress that the planning is still at an early stage and nothing's been decided yet. And yet, there must be a reason why this is being reported now. It obviously would throw a monkey wrench in the arrangements that Trump is trying to make with Erdogan to keep eastern Syria stable in the wake of the US withdrawal. It would also represent a back down from US promises made earlier to the Turks to retrieve the weapons and Erdogan would throw a fit. Certainly, the idea that the U.S. military can retrieve all of the weapons that it handed over is a dubious one, at best,  and there are legitimate questions about whether or not Turkish troops could really operate in the Middle Euphrates valley near the Iraqi border, hundreds of kilometers from the Turkish border.

But the key to the proposal is this: The recommendation "is a rejection of Trump's policy to withdraw from Syria," a person familiar with the discussions told Reuters. So, really, it is an attempt at sabotage.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trump-scores-breaks-generals-50-year-war-record-syria-mattis-dunford/

https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-u-commanders-recommend-letting-kurdish-fighters-syria-233235271.html 

 

Two new US bases in western Iraq.

"The U.S. military has established two new bases along the Iraqi-Syrian border, the Turkish state-owned Anadolu Agency reported on Tuesday.

Citing an Iraqi official, the Anadolu Agency said the U.S. military established the two bases in the western countryside of the Al-Anbar.

“The U.S. Army has established two new military facilities in uninhabited parts of the province,” Farhan al-Duleimi, a member of Anbar’s provisional council, told Anadolu Agency.

The first base, he said, had been set up in the northern Rumana subdistrict (in Anbar’s Al-Qaim district) near the Syrian border, roughly 360 kilometers west of provincial capital Ramadi.

The second base, he added, had been set up east of the city of Al-Rutbah, roughly 310 kilometers west of Ramadi and less than 100 kilometers from the Syrian border.

According to al-Duleimi, the twin bases are intended to help Iraqi forces “secure the country’s borders and prevent infiltrations by the Daesh terrorist group.”

“Scores of U.S. soldiers are currently stationed at the two bases, along with drones and other equipment,” al-Duleimi said without elaborating."

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-builds-two-military-bases-along-syrian-border-map/

------------

The generals' club is probably at work in this, seeking to limit the effect of Trump's order for US forces to withdraw from Syria.

The one in roumana sub-district  is the location from which US Army 155mm artillery is firing in support of continuing  SDF attacks against the hajin pocket in the SE corner of Syria.  There will be US Army GBs with the SDF adjusting these fires.  IMO those GBs will be left in Syria to do what only they do best, keep the locals in the fight.  This base will be useful as a forward staging point for any raids that SOF forces might want to make into Syria (kill Baghdadi, etc.)

The other base is at rutbah and is positioned astride the highway from al-tanf in Syria.  In this position it will continue to obstruct the Damascus-Baghdad-Iran main ground route. 

These two facilities will surely be supported and supplied from the al-asad air bast which Trump visited.  pl

The Kurds and the art of BOHICA - TTG

US President Donald Trump gave a positive response to Turkey’s operation east of the Euphrates, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on December 17 following a phone call with the US President, according to Turkish media. “We can start our operation any moment now in Syrian territory at any place, especially along the 500-kilometer border, without harming U.S. soldiers,” Erdogan said at the opening ceremony at Mevlana Square in central Konya province.

Erdogan said that he had told his Trump that “terrorists” must leave the region east of the Euphrates River. “If they don’t go, we will send them,” he said. “The terror corridor [in Syria] is disturbing us. Since we are partners with the US, we must do this.”

The Turkish President also called on the US to uphold to the Manbij deal to clear the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from the region. “Our fight against terrorism in the Syrian territory will continue until a political solution is opened,” Erdogan said.

Last weekend, Erdogan announced that Turkey is about to launch to a military operation against the YPG in the area east of the Euphrates. According to sources in pro-Turkish militant groups, about 15,000 members of pro-Turkish militant factions are ready to participate in this attack.  (SouthFront)

***************************

Erdogan announced this coming offensive on 12 December during the Turkish Defense Industry Summit. There has been a steady beat of the war drums in Turkey since that announcement. The initial targets of this FSA offensive appear to be Kobani (Ayn Arab) and Tell Abyad. Although the FSA forces are massing north of the border, Turkish troops will not take part in order to avoid any confrontation with US forces. 

The US has established observation posts in this area ostensibly to protect Turkey from “terror threats.” In actuality the presence of US troops on the border are meant to discourage the kind of invasion that Erdogan announced on the 12th. This South Front article casts doubts on this strategy. Has Trump decided to abandon the Rojava Kurds? We have a rich tradition of abandoning Kurds so he would not be breaking new ground here. However, the Kurdish YPG/YPJ are the backbone of the SDF and our ongoing efforts to establish a lasting presence east of the Euphrates. Perhaps Trump has decided to abandon that policy. Has he made peace (in his mind) with Iran? That would be a major shift and a major blow to neocon strategy in the region. It would also be a kick square in the stones of both the Israelis and Saudis.

Unfortunately, Erdogan may be reading too much into his phone conversation with Trump. Trump has a lot on his mind right now and he may not have clearly expressed what he wants or is willing to accept. It wouldn’t be the first time a poorly enunciated political message has led to an invasion in the region. We won’t know until Erdogan’s FSA jihadis cross the border and threaten Kobani. Remember the last time the jihadis were at the gates of Kobani? We brought scunion down on their heads while the YPG/YPJ held them by their short and curlies.

TTG

https://southfront.org/trump-gives-positive-response-to-turkeys-operation-east-of-euphrates-erdogan/

More than 33,000 refugees have returned to Syria from Jordan since reopening of Nassib Crossing

"Up to 33,500 refugees have reportedly returned to Syria from Jordan through the Nassib border crossing within past two months, footage released on Friday shows.

According to the Russian Centre for Reconciliation of Warring Parties in Syria, between 600-700 Syrian citizens return to the country daily through the Nassib border crossing.

One of the refugees, who deserted from the Syrian army during the conflict, said that he decided to return “after the change of conditions in Syria and the liberation of most of the territory from terrorists,” in addition the amnesty for army deserters announced by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The two countries agreed to reopen the transit route that has been an essential commercial crossing for both countries until its closure in 2015."AMN

-------------

There have also been several thousand exiles returned from Europe, Turkey, Lebanon, etc.  Anyone have the numbers?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/more-than-33000-refugees-have-returned-to-syria-from-jordan-since-reopening-of-nassib-crossing/

James Jeffrey wants no-fly-zone over Syria… all of Syria - TTG

BEIRUT, LEBANON (3:45 P.M.) – The U.S. envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, said at a press conference on Tuesday that Washington is seeking a no-fly-zone over Syria that resembles the one imposed on Iraq in the 1990’s. “Remember we were present not in northern Iraq but over northern Iraq in Operation Northern Watch for 13 years. That can be a UN force,” he said on Tuesday.

Jeffrey said that the U.S. came up with this idea during a “small group” meeting on Syria with Germany, France, Great Britain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt. The U.S. diplomat said that the no-fly-zone could be observed by a joint U.N. force. “That can be a UN force. Under 2254 there is language on a UN-managed and operated ceasefire. That can be partner forces. That can be other countries’ forces,” he said.

Jeffrey then turned his attention to Iran, who he said plays a factor in whether or not the U.S. will continue to be present in Syria. “When we say we’re going to be present not forever in Syria but present until our conditions – enduring defeat of ISIL, as was said earlier, the withdrawal of all Iranian-commanded forces from the entirety of Syria, and an irreversible political process,” he added.  (Al Masdar News)

*****************

This is flat nuts… Marx Brothers in Duck Soup nuts. Hail Freedonia! Jeffrey, Bolton and others, both in the USG and in the Coalition countries, want to attempt to impose a no-fly-zone over the whole of Syria in order to force all Iranians out of Syria and to ensure regime change in Damascus. It would take an all out assault by the entire Coalition of the Clueless to even attempt to suppress the Russian-Syrian integrated air defense and REC network in place in Syria. That’s all out war.

In addition to this foolish idea, Jeffrey calls for “pulling the plug” on the Sochi and Astana talks. In an effort to one up Jeffrey, the former UK ambassador to Syria added this to the madness: 

“The United States regards its presence in Syria as a strategic tool and will maintain it unless Iran withdraws its forces from the country, which is a highly unlikely scenario, former UK Ambassador to Syria Peter Ford told Sputnik. “The United States regards this territory as pawns in a chess game. It will not surrender any of these pawns except in return for, principally, withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria,” Ford said.”

I’d like to see Ford stand in front of a formation of YPG/YPJ fighters and call them pawns in a chess game and strategic tools. He’ll end up buried in a shallow, unmarked grave… or left in the desert for the carrion crows. 

How is this happening? Are the heads of state of the entire Western Coalition so distracted that the neocon rats feel free to run amuck? Perhaps. Macron is up his neck in yellow jackets. May has Brexit hanging over her head. Merkel has a crumbling government. And Trump has a host of alligators nipping at his ass. Somebody needs to set some neocon rat traps.

Trump is far too chummy with MbS and Netanyahu and has his own personal animosity toward Iran. This is probably allowing him to be swayed by Pompeo, Jeffrey and Bolton to acquiesce to this meshuggah Syrian policy. I may not like the man, but I sincerely wish somebody would step up and rescue him from the cabal of neocon Grima Wormtongues that surround him. He is our President. It would do all of us and Trump a world of good.

TTG

A reading list:

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-envoy-wants-no-fly-zone-over-syria-that-resembles-iraqi-1990s-model/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-wants-to-end-astana-conference-on-syria-peace/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-unlikely-to-give-up-syrian-territory-until-iran-withdraws-ex-uk-ambassador/

https://www.mintpressnews.com/pompeos-fingerprints-are-all-over-trumps-new-syria-regime-change-policy/

http://www.voltairenet.org/Implication of creating a modern integrated management of Syrian air space

Perhaps time is up in Idlib.

That is the old Saraya Difaa' companies insignia.  4th Armored Division, SAA is descended from them.

Reporting in the last two days indicates that 4th Armored Division is re-deploying some units to the western arc of the Idlib pocket outside the supposed "de-militarized" belt agreed on by Russia, Turkey, and Syria.

At the same time units of 5th Corps, SAA and of the Republican Guard have been deploying to the east side of the Idlib Pocket.

HTS has repeatedly violated the terms of the agreement.  Thus far Russia and Syria have refrained from taking definitive and decisive action, but Russia's recent political wounds brought on by incidents in Ukraine  may have decided for Russia the question of whether or not it is worthwhile to humor the US in the hope of better relations with the US.

We will see.  pl

https://southfront.org/syrian-military-deploys-5th-assault-corps-and-republican-guard-troops-east-of-idlib-video/

https://southfront.org/units-of-4th-armored-division-deploy-near-idlib-demilitarized-zone-amid-looming-collapse-of-ceasefire/

https://southfront.org/more-than-15000-terrorist-in-idlib-russia-is-ready-to-assit-syrian-army-to-elimiate-them/

YPG has withdrawn from the Euphrates fight with IS

 

"The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which consist mainly of members of various Kurdish armed groups, declared on October 31 that they had halted their operation against ISIS in the Euphrates Valley because of Turkish attacks on their positions in northern Syria.

The SDF blamed Turkey for its own inability to eliminate the ISIS-held area of Hajin in the Euphrates Valley and called on the so-called international community to pressure Ankara to stop its strikes on SDF targets. The SDF also vowed to retaliate to attacks.

On October 30, October 31 and November 1, clashes between the Turkish military and units of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) were reported near the towns of Ayn Arab, also known as Kobani, and Tel Abyad. According to pro-Turkish sources, at least 4 members of the YPG and the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) were killed and 6 others were injured there. The YPG claimed that its members had destroyed a Turkish military truck with an anti-tank guided missile.

As to the situation in the Hajin area, over the past few days ISIS units have achieved a notable progress in clashes with the SDF recapturing multiple positions from the US-backed group. The halt of the SDF operation there will likely contribute further to ISIS expansion in the direction of the Iraqi border."  SF

--------------

 James Jeffrey, the neocon US representative in the Syria/Iraq situation is busy placating both Turkey and Israel at the expense of the SAG and the poor bloody Kurds and Arabs of the SDF/YPG.  Jeffrey has said that he hopes the Russians will allow Israel to keep bombing supposed Iranian facilities at will and his efforts on behalf of Erdogan's ambitions in northern Syria and Iraq seem to know no bounds.  Trump said today at his disgraceful presser (his fault and that of the media) that Jeffrey "fits in with the Pompeo team."  Evidently that is so.

Meanwhile out in the Euphrates Valley, the high command of the SDF/YPG have withdrawn their forces (probably against US wishes) from the too long delayed offensive against the IS held Hajin Pocket near the rod crossing into Iraq.

The reason?  The Turks are busily attacking YPG forces up north near the Turkish border.  Surprise!  The Kurds think they need to go fight the Turks rather than serve the US desire to keep one of the two land routes from Syria to Iran closed.

I have been busy with things electoral this week but this development deserves attention.  pl  

 https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-november-1-2018-sdf-halts-operation-against-isis-in-euphrates-valley-because-of-turkish-attacks/ 

Our enduring presence” - TTG

Presidential candidate Trump promised to stay out of foreign wars. In April, the US president said the forces would leave Syria soon with the decision taken “very quickly” on how long they will remain there. “We’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now,” he stated. On Sept.24, US National Security Adviser (NSA) John Bolton said the US would remain in Syria “until Iran leaves”. “We’re not going to leave as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that includes Iranian proxies and militias,” the NSA formulated the US position. According to Military Times, his statement was “signaling a fundamental shift from the current counter-terrorism operations to a mission focused more on geopolitical maneuvering and proxy warfare.”The source believes the White House has revealed a massive mission creep. It cited James Phillips, senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Heritage Foundation, who said. “I would prefer to keep US troops there indefinitely, because they also serve a purpose in blocking Iran’s freedom of movement and access to lines of communication that would connect western Iraq with Lebanon.”

Earlier last month, the secretary of state’s Special Representative for Syria engagement James Jeffrey said that the US military could pursue an enduring presence in part to complicate Iranian activities in the country. According to him, the forces will remain beyond “the end of the year”.

Looks like they will stay much longer. Special Representative for Syria Engagement, Ambassador James Jeffrey, openly intervened into Syria’s internal affairs by threatening it with sanctions the US would impose if it Syria did not align its domestic laws with Washington’s instructions. According to him, the US would work with countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East to impose tough international sanctions in circumvention of the UN Security Council if Syria’s government failed to cooperate on rewriting the country’s constitution as a prelude to elections. “We will make it our business to make life as miserable as possible for that flopping cadaver of a regime and let the Russians and Iranians, who made this mess, get out of it,” he warned.

It has been recently reported that the United States has set up a new military base near the Iraqi town of Al-Qa’im in Anbar province on the Iraqi-Syrian border. It is located near the strategic border crossing that links to the Syrian town of Abu Kamal. The US air defense and electronic radar systems in Kobani, the Aleppo governorate in northern Syria, and on the territory of the al-Shaddadi base in the Hasakah province. A no-fly zone could be established in northern Syria stretching from Manbij to Deir ez-Zor. The US will stay to prevent Iran from gaining access to the Mediterranean Sea. (by Arkady Savitsky in Strategic Culture)

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Yesterday morning Colonel Lang emailed me about an apparent US policy change for the worse in Syria. At his request, I planned on doing two pieces on the subject, the one I just posted on the situation at Tanf and a second one about the situation east of the Euphrates. However, this morning I found this piece in “Strategic Culture” by Arkady Savitsky that did a far better job at addressing this subject than I would have done. Please read Arkady’s entire article.

I will add two additional points. First, Erdogan has announced that his forces are preparing to secure the YPG-held territories in the al Raqqa, al Hasaka and Deir Ezzor governorates. How does that square with the US-planned enduring presence in those areas? Are we gearing up for a US-Turkey war for eastern Syria? My second point is that the Rojava Kurds are about to receive a right royal screwing. They pulled out of the talks with Damascus, probably under pressure of the US. That was a supremely boneheaded move by the Kurds. All they have to do is look at the fate of those who chose to take part in the reconciliation process. Former jihadis are being welcomed back to the fold. The Kurds would do at least that well if they stayed the course with the Damascus talks. Now they stand to be kicked in the teeth by the Turks and stabbed in the back by the US. Such promise. Such waste.Their choices exasperate me.

TTG

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/10/02/us-military-in-syria-ready-for-long-endurance-mission.html

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-aims-to-control-ypg-held-territories-east-of-euphrates/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-backed-political-party-confirms-negotiations-with-syrian-govt-halted/

https://southfront.org/syria-foreign-minister-accuses-u-s-of-sabotaging-talks-with-kurds/

Showdown at Tanf - TTG

The reconciliation process initiated by the Russians in Syria has saved countless lives of soldiers, civilians and even jihadists. It also preserved SAA fighting strength, brought a lot of Syrian territory back under the control of Damascus. It brought former jihadists back into the fight on the side of the SAA. This process may appear to be tedious and without the glorious satisfaction of annihilating jihadis in a costly series of rapid offensives, but I firmly believe the reconciliation process is the right way for Syria. This strategy is now being brought to bear at Tanf. 

The first evidence of this was the mid-September agreement for the removal of the US trained and backed al-Qaryatayn Martyrs Brigade and 5,000 civilians from the Rukban refugee camp to the Euphrates Shield-held area in northern Aleppo. This was the work of the Russian Reconciliation Center. More recently, tribal leaders from Damascus have met tribal leaders at the refugee camp to discuss their situation. A list of refugees wanting to engage in the reconciliation process is being prepared. Many of those not reconciling with Damascus will be shipped north to join the al-Qaryatayn Martyrs Brigade and their families. The camp evacuations are already be underway. Next week the Russians will escort a UN aid convoy into the Rukban Refugee Camp. 

Although the US has apparently acquiesced to the Russian plan to depopulate the Rukban Refugee Camp, I believe Russia has cleverly outmaneuvered the US. The SAA is steadily destroying the remaining jihadis on the al-Safa plateau. I believe the US forces at Tanf will soon be left alone without jihadis to control or even any remaining jihadis to fight. The “fighting ISIS” rationale will disappear and the real reason for remaining at Tanf will become clear. At Israel’s behest, we are blocking the Teheran-Baghdad-Damascus highway.

TTG 

https://southfront.org/us-backed-militant-group-in-al-tanaf-accepts-evacuation-agreement-report/

https://southfront.org/russian-us-negotiations-to-evacuate-civilians-from-al-rukban-camp-near-al-tanaf/

https://southfront.org/damascus-government-and-local-leaders-reach-initial-agreement-on-al-rukban-camp/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-scores-big-advance-in-southern-syria-amid-heavy-resistance-from-isis-video/

Russian MOD says the chlorine has been delivered to "Bsanqul."

 

"Idlib militants have delivered canisters with Chlorine to the village of Bsanqul, where they are preparing to stage a chemical attack, the Russian Defense Ministry says.

On September 15, a spokesman of the Russian Center for Reconciliation in Syria, Lieutenant General Vladimir Savchenko said that the chlorine-filled canisters were delivered by members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian bracnh of al-Qaeda).

Lieutenant General Savchenko said that the recent developments showed that militants are preparing a false flag attack, which will be used to accuse the Syrian government of using chemical weapons in Idlib.

This warning followed a September 12 statement by the Russian Defense Ministry in which it said that the White Helmets group has shot videos intended to be employed to accuse the Syrian government of accusing the Damascus government of the chemical weapons usage.

Earlier, the Russia military said toxic chemicals had been delivered to the militant-held part of Idlib province adding that the White Helmets had carried out the delivery."

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Well, pilgrims, BOHICA.  The WHPC (White Helmets Production Company), funded by USAID and masterminded by the spiritual descendants of Reilly, Ace of Spies, in Whitehall have their "stuff' (chlorine)  in one pile now at Bsanqul on Route 4 and are evidently waiting for a good moment to release their already produced videos in the world wide web.  They (the neocons - Pompeo, Bolton, Haley, etc.) will then show Trump the TV.  Ivanka will weep and moan about "the children!  the children!"  Somehow she does not seem to be equally stricken by the sight of the children of Gaza shot by Israeli Army snipers.

Trump will then order some sort of attack, some sort of attack.  pl 

https://southfront.org/idlib-militants-deliver-chlorine-canisters-to-bsanqul-village-prepare-to-stage-chemical-attack-russian-military/

Habakkuk to TTG on the Yeltsin period

They were indeed fascinating times, and the conversations cast a very valuable light on them.

The conclusion of Helmer’s piece I find particularly interesting:

“What a rich irony Yeltsin leaves us in this record of his dealings with Clinton,” observes a senior Soviet officer now retired in Moscow. “Yeltsin proves that because negotiations with the Americans are impossible, and because Russians will not capitulate, war is inevitable. And this from the Communist Party veteran, the Politburo member, who was brought up to believe war was inevitable between communism and capitalism. And he, self-appointed liberator of Russia from communism, ends up proving he didn’t free us from war with the Americans at all. Ha!”

As it happens, while I almost always find what Helmer has to say interesting, I also often think one needs to take what he writes with, say, a certain amount of salt.

The notion that war between the capitalist and communist worlds was in some way fatalistically inevitable, which had been central to Soviet pronouncements through until Stalin’s death, and was a significant cause of the Cold War, was actually abandoned thereafter, although the jettisoning of the whole structure of ludicrous dogma had to wait for four further decades.

That said, what Helmer writes comes together with recent reminders of my own experience of the closing years of the Soviet Union.

So, ‘C-SPAN’ have posted an interview and Q & A session given by Michael MccGwire, credited as ‘Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution,’ on 3 February 1989. The description of the origins of the Gorbachev ‘new thinking’, and the revolutionary changes it implied, was that he gave to myself and a BBC Radio colleague when we interviewed him, it would have been a few days later.

(See https://www.c-span.org/pers... )

As MccGwire said, when asked to describe himself, ‘I went to sea when I was seventeen, I’m basically an ex-naval officer.’

Actually, he had been chief cadet captain at the Dartmouth naval college, and before he turned eighteen had had a ‘worm’s eye’ view both of the crucial ‘Operation Pedestal’ convoy, which relieved Malta in August 1942, and of the North African landings the following November.