Sic Semper Tyrannis

Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria Diary - 7 July 2014

"ISIS "took the weapons stores of the 2nd and 3rd [Iraqi army] divisions in Mosul, the 4th division in Salah al Din, the 12th division in the areas near Kirkuk, and another division in Diyala," said Jabbar Yawar, secretary-general of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs, punctuating his words with quick flicks of his laser pointer as he stitched a scythe-like arc across a map denoting various provinces and cities strung across northern and central Iraq.

"We're talking about armaments for 200,000 soldiers, all from the Americans," concluded Yawar, a mustachioed figure whose office in Irbil features a photograph of him as a young peshmerga fighter in the 1980s against the government of former Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein."  latimes

----------------------------

People like Cordesman are repeating the nonsense that holds the rebel coalition in such contempt as to claim that they cannot master the use of the masses of US made equipment captured as booty.  Baloney!  Do those who think that way not grasp the simple truths that there were already many skilled ex-soldiers among the rebels and that the rebels also captured technicians from among the Iraqi Army?  pl 

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-iraq-isis-arms-20140629-story.html#page=1

*********************

Syria - "moderate" rebel politics.

- "The Syrian National Coalition will pick a replacement for its current president, Ahmad al-Jarba, in a vote expected on Tuesday. The top candidate for the job is senior coalition members are Hadi Bahra and Muwaffaq Nairabiyeh, who belong to Jarba's Democratic bloc. Spokeswoman Sarah Karkour said that by Sunday evening, there hadn't been an agreement on a candidate, although members were coalescing around Bahra." newsok

--------------------------

Blah! Blah! Blah!  John Kerry should attend the meeting in Istanbul.  An opportunity for good Doner Kebab should not be passed up. This is more nonsense about the "moderate" Syrian rebels.  These people have been defeated by the SAG, by al-Nusra and by ISIL.  They have been beaten like "a rented mule."  Their existence as a real force in Syria is yet another fantasy produced by the R2P/AIPAC influence in the US foreign policy establishment.  We should appropriate $500 million for them?  What a grand opportunity this will be to rip off the  US tax payer as the money passes through various hands.  And to what end?  The alternative to a Syrian government victory in the civil war is NOT the kind of liberal democracy dreamt of by the US media and government fantasists as the "inevitable" result of the revolution in Egypt.  No, IMO the inevitable result of the SAG's defeat and disappearance would be a Hobbesian maelstrom of jihadi factions fighting each other for control so that they would have a free hand in persucuting religious minorities.  BTW, don't kid yourself that Assad can be removed and have his government and forces stand.  That is just another fantasist dream.  pl

http://newsok.com/article/feed/708039

**********************

 "A growing number of Western officials are calling for an audit of the ballots cast in the Afghan presidential election, increasing the likelihood that the nation’s electoral commission will have to formally reassess the June 14 runoff vote even as it prepares to announce preliminary results.

Ever since Afghans voted in the runoff, the system has been deadlocked by allegations of widespread fraud. The presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has consistently complained that his opponent, Ashraf Ghani, with the help of the commission and other Afghan officials, rigged the vote."  NY Times

-------------------------

 SOFA anyone?  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/07/world/asia/western-officials-press-for-audit-of-afghan-presidential-vote.html?_r=0 

 

Iraq/Afghanistan Diary - 19 June 2014

- Well there you are, the NY Times has discovered that the forces facing the Maliki government's army are actually a coalition of; ISIS head choppers, ex old Iraq Army people, and the Sunni tribes that fought beside us against ISIS like groups in the days of the Awakening.  It seems to me that I read something like that elsewhere a while back...  Ah, yes!  It was here.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/19/world/middleeast/former-loyalists-of-saddam-hussein-crucial-in-helping-isis.html?emc=edit_th_20140619&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=405151

-  The Baiji refinery.  I have not read anywhere in the media that the products of this refinery are all for Iraqi domestic consumption.  Like most oil producers, Iraq exports crude, not refined products.  pl

http://wiki.openoil.net/index.php?title=Baiji_Refinery

- Someone wrote to SST predicting downfall  for the rebels when they encountered the fearsome Iraqi 9th Armored Division (perhaps their honorific name should be "Masquf on Wheels").  That is undoubtedly an M1A1 Abrams brewed up after a hit from an anti-tank missile.  The warhead went all the way through the armor.  This picture dates from Iraqi Army attempts to regain ground in Anbar some months ago.  pl

http://www.janes.com/article/39550/iraqi-abrams-losses-revealed

- Abdullah Abdullah says to hell with the electoral commission.  He hasn't lost yet and is already denouncing the outcome of the presidential election.  This does not bode well for a stable presidency adorned by a chief executive who will meekly sign the SOFA.  pl

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/iraq-crisis-stirs-fears-afghanistan-24205961

 

Obama declares the end of history and the childlike nature of American soldiers.

" The days of empire and spheres of influence are over.  Bigger nations must not be allowed to bully the small, or impose their will at the barrel of a gun or with masked men taking over buildings.  And the stroke of a pen can never legitimize the theft of a neighbor’s land.  So we will not accept Russia’s occupation of Crimea or its violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty."  Obama

 *******************

 “I’m never surprised by controversies that are whipped up in Washington, that’s par for the course,” Mr. Obama said Thursday during a Brussels press conference.  Obama

 

 -----------------------

I think it was Francis Fukuyama, the neocon historian who last tried to announce the end of history as humanity has experienced it.  This did not end well for Fukuyama.  History made a "house call" for him and bit him on the ass.

Now we have Obama sternly announcing that " The days of empire and spheres of influence are over."  Say what?  Which planet does he live on?  Obama increasingly seems to be a very sheltered man who was educated on big fat scholarships at the "best" colleges and universities where he acquired the academically popular notion that humans and their societies are evolving toward a higher state in which there  will be a world community governed by rules and "norms" that will protect the weak against the strong.  This idea is the product of the musings of various European social scientists in the 19th Century. Just about all of them were members of some relatively weak group who desired to change the shape of history so that they would be safe from the strong.  The coterie of Obamaites who the president has surrounded himself with all inhabit this "bubble" of belief.

Unfortunately  for them and the rest of us outside the bubble the world has not changed.  Putin treats this bleating with contempt,  Assad is well on his way to emasculating the jihadis in Syria.  Maliki grinds the faces of the Sunni Arabs with impunity.  Al-Sissi will embark next week on his maximal effort to "destroy" the MB and other jihadi fanatics in Egypt.  None of these people give a damn abut what Obama and his bubbleocracy think because they can tell reality from silliness.  They know the difference between chicken salad and chicken shit.

In the world of the realists, it is important to have large numbers of hard, armed, people who will devote themselve to watching over the weak while they sleep lest the wolves come to feast.   In pursuit of the goal of having such guardians. it has been necessary to create bodies of soldiers who will accept the task and will give themselves up for the task.  Such people are often not ideal candidates for membership in Parent Teacher's Associations or the League of Women Voters.  Women they may be, but if so, not likely to fit in well in today's effete American society.

In the case of Bergdahl fils, the president/commander in chief referred to him several time at Brussels as "someone's kid,"  and as a "child."

Well, I am here to tell you Mr. President that if you keep that up, you will have no hard people to watch over weak people.  pl

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/04/remarks-president-obama-25th-anniversary-freedom-day

Good Breaking News: Sergeant Bergdahl has been Freed - Updated

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

A bit of good news out of Afghanistan on a Saturday afternoon. Sergeant Bowl Bergdahl, pictured above, has been released by the Taliban that have been holding him for several years. He's now back in US control. This was accomplished by agreeing to exchange him for five detainees being held at Guantanamo. They will be released to the Qataris who have agreed to supervise them.

UPDATED

In comments COL Lang asked who was SGT Bergdahl exchanged for. According to the news reports he was exchanged for five Taliban being held at Guantanamo. According to CNN, based on confirmation from (unnamed) Administration officials, the five Taliban are:

 

Khair Ulla Said Wali Khairkhwa

 

Former Afghan minister of interior during Taliban rule, governor of Herat and a military commander. Alleged to have been "directly associated" with Osama bin Laden. According to a detainee assessment, Khairkhwa was probably associated with al Qaeda's now-deceased leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al Zarqawi. He is also described as one of the "major opium drug lords in western Afghanistan" and a "friend of current Afghan President Hamid Karzai." He was arrested February 2002 in Pakistan and was transferred to Guantanamo in May 2002. During questioning, Khairkhwa denied all knowledge of extremist activities.

 

Mullah Mohammad Fazl

 

Deputy minister of defense under the Taliban, senior military commander who was chief of staff of the Afghan army and commander of the Taliban's 10th Division. Wanted by the U.N. in connection with the massacre of thousands of Afghan Shiites during the Taliban rule. "When asked about the murders, detainee did not express any regret," according to the detainee assessment. Alleged to have been associated with several militant Islamist groups, including al Qaeda. Surrendered in November 2001 to Northern Alliance (opponents of the Taliban). Transferred to U.S. custody in December 2001 and one of the first arrivals at Guantanamo. Assessed as having high intelligence value.

 

Mullah Norullah Nori

 

Senior Taliban commander during hostilities with U.S. and allies in Mazar-e Sharif in late 2001. Taliban governor of two provinces and also implicated, according to detainee assessment, in the murder of Afghan Shiites. Nori claimed during interrogation that "he never received any weapons or military training." Surrendered in November 2001 to Northern Alliance and transferred to U.S. custody a month later. According to 2008 detainee assessment, Nori "continues to deny his role, importance and level of access to Taliban officials." Same assessment characterized him as high risk and of high intelligence value.

 

Abdul Haq Wasiq

 

Formerly deputy director of Taliban intelligence. An administrative review in 2007 cited a source as saying that Wasiq was also "an al Qaeda intelligence member" and had links with members of another militant Islamist group, Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin. Wasiq claimed, according to the review, that he was arrested while trying to help the United States locate senior Taliban figures. He denied any links to militant groups.

 

Mohammad Nabi Omari

 

According to the first administrative review of Omari in 2004, he was a member of the Taliban and associated with both al Qaeda and another militant group Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin. He was the Taliban's chief of communications and helped al Qaeda members to escape from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Omari acknowledged during hearings that he had worked for the Taliban but denied connections with militant groups. He also said that he had worked with a U.S. operative named Mark to try to track down Mullah Omar.

 

 

*Adam L. Silverman is the Cultural Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

"Taliban attack on luxury hotel in Kabul kills 9 civilians" Washpost

"The Serena was also the target of a 2008 attack that killed hotel guests, but security has since been beefed up. The hotel is protected by private guards, not the Afghan government. Afghans have been gathering to mark the beginning of the traditional New Year. On Friday, a number of Afghans, including a deputy governor and a top aide, were wounded in an explosion in the southern city of Kandahar, where the devices had apparently been hidden in a box of fruit. The Thursday night attack on Serena came hours after a brazen raid by a group of Taliban militants killed 10 officers in a police station in the east of the country."  Washpost

----------------------

2008/2014  Same same.  We should get out of that country.  Let the Chinese deal with them.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-afghanistan-taliban-carry-out-two-attacks-raiding-hotel-police-station-killing-at-least-19/2014/03/21/0be8938e-b0c7-11e3-a49e-76adc9210f19_story.html

Thoughts on Afghanistan - 17 September, 2013 (Republished 26 Feb 2014)

 

There is not a lot in the news these days about the NATO/US commitment to Afghanistan.  There is an approaching self-imposed BHO deadline for a decision on post 2014 US commitment in that distant "nation."  That date is the 16th of October.  The R2P ladies and gents and the neocons with their senate allies will press for a continuing project.  There are a number of problems that stand in the way of a 20,000 soldier presence after 2014.  That is the number talked about by the "American Grandeur" crowd as being what they desire.

-  So far as I know, the Afghans have not agreed to grant NATO forces legal personal immunity from Afghan law.  An inability to gain that would be an absolute game stopper as it was in Iraq.  the Afghans appear to be eager to assert the right to try American soldiers and subject them to various medieval punishments.  BHO knows that an attempt to make our people serve there in the absence of immunity would cause something akin to a rebellion in the US and its armed forces.

-  The Afghans want an absolute US guarantee of their "sovereign dignity" and borders against all comers.  That would include Palistan of course.  This concession would probably require the US to intervene in surrounding countries in defense of Afghan "sovereign dignity."

-  The Afghans want a multi-year guarantee of American funding.  It would seem that they have become accustomed to Uncle Sam's teat.

-  The problem of green on blue attacks has not gone away.  It is merely reduced by the expedient of reducing the exposure of NATO personnel to the Afghans.  I have advised quite a few foreign armies and would say that such a situation of hostility is not indicative of long term alliance or friendship

-  The American people are now hostile to the idea of such continuing foreign entanglements.  This showed clearly in the polling concerning possible military actionin Syria.  The BHO administration is now trying to represent the US/Russia deal as the product of brilliant diplomacy.  A lie.  Congress feared retribution from the American electorate if they gave Obama what he wanted.  As a result the votes were not there for approval and Obama decided to accept Russian mediation.  IMO the votes won't be achievable in Congress for any sort of long term commitment in Afghanistan.

The game is nearly done.  It will be a long time before there are more efforts to affect cultural transformation at the point of a gun.  pl

***************

I thought it appropriate to re-publish this today,  It will, of course, be impossible to put the genie of the Zero Option back in the bottle now that it has been leaked to the world - probably by the WH

Congress cuts funds for Afghanistan

 "With no perceptible opposition from the Obama administration, Congress has quietly downscaled Washington’s ambitions for the final year of the Afghan war, substantially curtailing development aid and military assistance plans ahead of the U.S. troop pullout. As congressional appropriators put the final touches on a huge spending bill in recent weeks, they slashed Afghanistan development aid by half and barred U.S. defense officials from embarking on major new infrastructure projects. After making a bid last year for $2.6 billion worth of “critical” capabilities such as mobile strike vehicles for Afghan security forces, the Pentagon agreed it could do with just 40 percent of what it had sought." washpost

**********************

*Most diplomats now agree that Karzai is unlikely to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that would allow for some form of U.S. military presence in Afghanistan after the end of 2014, when most troops are due to leave. Along with reviving peace talks with the Taliban, Karzai is also demanding an end to all U.S. military operations on Afghan homes and villages, including strikes by pilotless trones. The United States has threatened to pull all of its troops out unless a deal is signed in good time, but embassies are examining alternative solutions behind the scenes that would enable the NATO-led mission to remain."  Reuters

-------------------------

Time to go.  pl   

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/congress-cuts-us-military-and-development-aid-for-afghanistan/2014/01/24/3d4cb818-8531-11e3-bbe5-6a2a3141e3a9_story.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/25/us-afghanistan-usa-idUSBREA0O0B620140125

 

The restaurant bombing in Kabul

 
I don't suppose there are many reading this who will have heard of the "My Canh Cafe" bombing in Saigon in 1965.   This was a restaurant barge floating in the Saigon River.  There were about forty killed including nine Americans.  It had been a popular place.  Like the "Taberna du Liban" in Kabul, it had been a kind of "Rick's Place" where foreigners and the local uppoer class gathered as a haven from the outer world.  The VC had set off a car bomb at an American billeting hoted the year before.  Two Americans were killed in that event.

What distinguished those two attacks in VN was that they were nearly unique events.  There may have been similar attacks in Saigon in the remaining eight years of war, but I would have to be reminded of them.  The VC seem to have decided that the toll in Vietnamese lives was counterproductive.

In my two years in the country I often went to restaurants in Saigon.  Meetings in town were usually the occasions for such luxury.  "Guillaume Tell,"  the "Admiral," "Than-Tam's" in Cholon, the "Arc en Ciel," "Mayflower" for the onion soup, and the "Pizzeria" would be a few of the names.  There were guards and locked doors, but nobody seemed worried enough about attacks to stop eating out.  The standard of cooking and service was superb.  I normally went to such establishment in uniform.

 If anyone thinks that such culinary indulgence meant that we were not serious about the war, they should remember the fifty-eight thousand names on the monument on the mall in Washington and the six hundred thousand soldiers that the NVN government admits to having lost,

The bombing in Kabul seems to me to be very different.  The communist/nationalist enemy in VN had no intention of waging war against Western civilization.  This was entirely  a political matter for them fought in the context of Marxist/Leninist control of their political movement.  Because of that control they used intensive and violent methods to control the rural population where they could.  Their agitprop teams did not hesitate to kill in order to intimidate.  Nevertheless, the war was fought to being their idea of a Vietnamese national state into existence.  They always expected that such a state would exist withing the galaxy of states made possible by the Peace of Westphalia.

The jihadi Islamists are very different.  They ARE waging a war agsainst Western civilization.  The Lebanese restaurant was seen by them as evidence of Western cultural penetration.  There will be many more such attacks.   

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/01/20/afghan-president-again-demands-end-to-us-airstrikes-says-it-condition-for/

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-afghanistan-restaurant-attack-20140119,0,2295049.story#axzz2qxWVo8ng

US Ambassador says Karzai will not sign.

The lead American negotiator in talks over a long-term security agreement with Afghanistan has privately warned the Obama administration that its efforts to persuade President Hamid Karzai to sign the document on the U.S. timetable are likely to fail, according to officials. The assessment, if borne out, could raise the chances of a hasty and messy troop withdrawal by the end of the year and would leave the administration with little time to assemble a military coalition to remain in Afghanistan after the pullout.

--------------------------------

No immunity from Afghan law, no coninuing presence.  IMO the administration released this cable to the press for the purpose of preparing the public for a total US withdrawal.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/karzai-is-unlikely-to-meet-deadline-on-signing-long-term-security-deal-us-envoy-says/2014/01/09/2a9f01fc-7957-11e3-b1c5-739e63e9c9a7_story.html

Afghan CT operations will be impossible after 2014.

" ... observers say Karzai’s growing demands concerning U.S. military behavior could soon force commanders to reconsider their post-2014 mission. As part of the security agreement, which allows for a total of 15,000 foreign troops to remain in Afghanistan, the U.S. military also plans to conduct a limited number of counter­terrorism missions in the country. “If he represents what the majority of Afghans want, it’s going to be hard to maintain those kind of missions,” said Robert G. Loftis, a professor at Boston University and a former diplomat who led the George W. Bush administration’s initial effort to reach a status-of-forces agreement with Iraq in 2008. “He’s playing a dangerous game here, and he may convince, if not the [Obama] administration, the American public, ‘Hey, why are we doing this?’ ”"  Washingtonpost

-----------------------------------

 Isn't it obvious that the only Afghans who want the US to keep troops in their country after 2014 are those who are enemies of the Taliban in the ongoing civil war?  Isn't it obvious? 

 Loftis is correct.  it will be impossible to conduct CT operations in an environment in which there must be; no accidental Afghan civilian casualties, no entry of Afghan residences, no operations in built up areas.

If that is so, why would be staying?  the kleptocrats in Kabul want us to stay to protect them and their money.

 Start leaving now!  pl    

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coalition-apologizes-for-killing-afghan-child-karzai-warns-security-deal-in-jeopardy/2013/11/29/f73d2b06-58ed-11e3-8304-caf30787c0a9_story.html

Iran, Israel, Afghanistan, the ACA, Natanyahu - Obama Agonistes

- Israel is sending a team over to "help" us with the Iran negotiations.  The servants of Israel in the Congress are trying to torpedo the second phase talks by moving the goal posts so far that they are out of reach for any place kicker.  Maybe the Israeli team is going to advise them.

-  Obamacare moves from weakness to weakness, relentlessly moving along a trajectory of ever increasing unpopularity while the administration hopes for a more or less miraculous shift in public sentiment if they can make the federal website work.

- The Congress is basically flummoxed in its effort to decide what might be national priorities in a budget.  The Republicans appear to be more interested in destroying Obama than in anything else.

- Karzai told the charming Susan Rice to hit the road after raising the ante.  You heard it first here.  Heard what?  We told you that there would not be US troops in Afghanistan after next year.

- The police report on the Lanza creature reveals to the amazement of the NE mommy crowd that he had no specific motive.  He was merely mad.  Look at all the mass shooter types.  They are all mad.

Sometimes you eat the bear.  Sometimes the bear eats you.  I hope they have a happy Thanksgiving in the White House.  pl

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/11/nuclear-agreement-iran-51-forum-negotiations-palestinians.html?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=8631

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/26/us-afghanistan-usa-idUSBRE9AP03J20131126?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*AfPak%20Daily%20Brief&utm_campaign=South%20Asia%20Daily%20Brief%2011-26-13

http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2013/11/22/californias-bitter-pill-leaves-66-worse-off-in-aca-rollout/

 

 

Senators seek a vote an Afghan Agreement - NBC News

 


"The amendment, if enacted, would force Obama to seek a vote in Congress to approve continued troop presence in Afghanistan by June of next year. Merkley is looking to attach the amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, which is currently under consideration by the Senate. An aide to the Oregon senator suggested the Democratic leadership wouldn't decide whether to allow a vote on the amendment, which would serve as a mild rebuke to the White House, until after next week's Thanksgiving recess."  NBC News

--------------------------------

It is not clear if there really is agreement between the US and Karzai's government regarding a long term military assistance relationship. So much logrolling is underway that a true picture is hard to discern.

Assuming for the sake of discussion that both the loya jirga and Afghan parliament approve the agreement, it is imperative that the Congress should demand a vote with regard to US acceptance of ths open ended commitment to Afghan security and a virtually blank check for "development projects" in Afghanistan.  pl   

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/20/21549727-senators-want-obama-to-seek-permission-for-continued-troops-in-afghanistan

"Muddled Thinking" on Afghanistan

"Many Afghans are angry over incidents including the February 2012 accidental burning of hundreds of copies of the Islamic holy book, the Quran, a March 2012 shooting spree by a U.S. soldier in southern Afghanistan that killed 16 people, and unintended civilian deaths from U.S. bombs. The night raids are particularly offensive because they are perceived as violating the sanctity of women in the house despite U.S. claims that they are a useful tool in killing insurgent leaders. The other sticking point is legal immunity — an issue that was a deal breaker during failed negotiations over a similar deal in Iraq before U.S. forces withdrew from that country in December 2011. Karzai's National Security Adviser Rangin Dafdar Spanta told lawmakers at a weekend briefing that the U.S. position was clear: If Washington doesn't get jurisdiction over its soldiers and civilian personnel, it won't sign the agreement, and it won't leave any U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan when international combat troops withdraw at the end of 2014. Hakimullah Mujahed, one of the Loya Jirga's organizers, said "the security agreement with the U.S. has to be in the framework of the Afghan constitution." "The trial of foreign soldiers accused of killing innocent Afghans or committing crimes against Afghanistan should be tried in an Afghan court. That's very important," he added."  Boston Herald

----------------------------

Barry McCaffery told Chuck Todd of MSNBC this morning that the proposed Afghan security agreement reflects "muddled thinking" in terms of the foolishness of leaving a necessarily embattled remnant in a "vast and hostile country."  He also pointed out the fact that the remnant would be 800 miles from the sea and the US Navy.  I could not agree more.  The fate of the British mission at Kabul in 1879 comes to mind.  Major Sir Louis Cavagnari and his escort of soldiers from the Guides were wiped out to the last man after a pitched battle with a Kabul mob.  McCaffery insisted that there are no important US security interests in Afghananistan.  Once agsin,  I agree.  The civil war in Afghanistan is an intra-Pushtun war.  It is not a war against the shattered AQ who once were a powerful force in the country.

Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser to Obama, then made an appearance to deny that the agreement is a  political fig leaf to cover the embarassment of Afghan/American looting of our aid money and yet another defeat endured in the name of the failed COIN philosophy.  He made it clear that if the agreement is signed, the US will continue to "bleed" billions of dollars into Afghanistan.  At the same time he left open the possibility that the US will "pocket" the agreement and withdraw all but a small group of advisers. This scenario would ensure the continuation of the process of embezzlement that has persisted for so long.

Let us hope that the Afghans will save us from the folly of further particiapation in their civil war.  pl

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/international/asia/2013/11/us_afghans_work_toward_agreement_on_night_raids

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Louis_Napoleon_Cavagnari

"Afghan Talks at Impasse Before Vote, Officials Say" NY Times

" ... the loya jirga would almost certainly reject the agreement with the American wording, which would make it all but impossible politically for Mr. Karzai to make a subsequent deal. The impasse was referred to obliquely in a statement posted Sunday night on the website of the Afghan presidency, which quoted the Afghan national security adviser as saying, “Both sides have not yet agreed on one of the clauses in the bilateral security agreement document.” The two sides have also not reached agreement on whether American troops will be immune from prosecution under Afghan law, but Mr. Karzai is willing to try to persuade the loya jirga to accept that, one of the Afghan officials said. The troops would be subject to prosecution under American law for crimes committed in the line of duty."  NY Times

----------------------------------

I have decided to ignore the Cheney family "amusement."  Thanksgiving dinner should be interesting if they gather.

On the other hand, it is fascinating to watch the Afghans play us like a fiddle.  I stand by my belief that the loya jirga will "flush" this agreement.  In fact I think that Karzai knows this is true and is calculating the moment of his departure for Dubai.

There is going to be a great deal of unhappiness in the US armed forces over ten years of misguided efforts to make Iraqis and Afghans into Canadians.  There have been so many fallen comrades, so much money thrown away, such a waste.  I know the feeling well.

And then there is the spectacle of Laura Bush publicly hoping that Afghan women will be treated well after NATO's departure.  Does she think that our pious hopes and dreams for Afghanistan have actually changed the nature of the various Afghan societies? 

Afgan women who can manage it should leave the country.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/18/world/asia/afghan-talks-at-impasse-before-vote-officials-say.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp

Afghans can't maintain their equipment. Washpost

 

"The problems plaguing Hamidullah’s battalion represent what might be the biggest threat to the fledgling Afghan army: an inability to repair or replace vital equipment once it is broken. The U.S. military shouldered that responsibility for years. But just as the Afghan army started doing the bulk of the fighting, the Americans stopped repairing Afghan equipment. The U.S. military said that turning over the job to the Afghans was an inevitable part of the transition process. But with the Afghan supply chain still undeveloped and the Defense Ministry still hobbled by corruption, army units across the country aren’t getting the gear and parts that they need."  Washpost

-----------------------------

Is anyone surprised at this?  Maintenance and supply are two of the main things the Afghans will want the US to continue doing for them even after the zero option becomes reality.  Contracters will love to do the job and the people doing the contracted work will make a lot of money.  They may get killed but that is why they will be paid a lot of money.  It is exactly thus in Iraq, with the contracters being supervised by a three star general who pleads for more generals and colonels to be sent him for the purpose of "empire building."  The more seniors you have working for you the more likely you are to be promoted.

It is a rare thing to find a 3rd World army or air force that can do its own logistics.  Saudi Arabia never has figured out how to make this happen without massive use of its "checkbook."  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-afghanistan-army-struggles-to-wage-war-with-damaged-equipment-poor-logistics/2013/10/17/96118b40-34e6-11e3-89db-8002ba99b894_story.html

 

 

 

"... except immunity for U.S. troops." CNN

"Without an agreement, U.S. troops would leave Afghanistan with all NATO forces at the end of 2013. The NATO mission now has about 100,000 troops in Afghanistan, about half from the United States. American and Afghan diplomats have worked for a year on a new agreement which would allow roughly 10,000 American troops to remain. Karzai said he did not have the authority to negotiate immunity for foreign troops. "We will leave this to the representatives of Afghanistan who will come to the Loya Jirga, and then take it to the Afghan Parliament, and the Afghan people can decide on this," he said through an interpreter at a joint press conference in Kabul."  CNN

-----------------------------------

Amusing.  Does Kerry really belive Karzai's protestations of friendship.  Does Kerry really believe a loya jirga will vote to give us immunity?  That is a picture of an Afghan civilian killed by a US soldier who went mad.  pl

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/12/world/asia/afghanistan-kerry-karzai/

 

 

 

 

"Impasse With Afghanistan Raises Prospect of Total U.S. Withdrawal in 2014" NY Times

"The United States and Afghanistan have reached an impasse in their talks over the role that American forces will play here beyond next year, officials from both countries say, raising the distinct possibility of a total withdrawal — an outcome that the Pentagon’s top military commanders dismissed just months ago.  American officials say they are preparing to suspend negotiations absent a breakthrough in the coming weeks, and a senior administration official said talk of resuming them with President Hamid Karzai’s successor, who will be chosen in elections set for next April, is, “frankly, not very likely.”"  NY Times

--------------------------

Ho hum.  You heard it here first.  pl

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2013/09/my-entry.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/05/world/asia/impasse-with-afghanistan-raises-prospect-of-total-us-withdrawal-in-2014.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&_r=2&

 

 

 

 

 

I'll Believe it when I see a SOFA.

"The Afghans have agreed to continue to allow the United States to maintain legal jurisdiction over its troops in Afghanistan, a requirement the Pentagon said was not negotiable. Disagreement over a similar provision ended up scuttling plans for a residual force in Iraq after the end of the combat mission there in 2011. Without such a provision, U.S. forces could be tried by local courts. The agreement needs final approval from Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who has frequently frustrated the United States in negotiations."  USAToday

******************************

"A monthslong effort by the United States and Afghanistan to hammer out a long-term security arrangement has so far achieved one obvious result -- each side has established clear red lines. Read between those lines, however, and there appears to be enough common ground for each side to get what they want. Going by the positions publicly taken by the two sides, they are at polar opposites on the terms of a continued U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan after 2014. Afghan officials have said that if U.S. troops are to remain, they must answer to Afghan law. Upping the ante, officials as high up as the Afghan president have called for U.S. troops to pick up and leave entirely. U.S. officials, eyeing the end of the current campaign in 2014, have made clear that they want a Status Of Forces Agreement (SOFA) in place to protect U.S. troops from prosecution in Afghanistan. With no SOFA agreement, according to the message being sent from Washington, the "zero option" of leaving no troops behind is a very real possibility." Radio Free Europe

--------------------------------------

Only one of these reports can be true.  pl

http://www.rferl.org/content/afghanistan-us-security-talks/25061333.html

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/07/31/afghanistan-pentagon-military-agreement-2014/2603945/

 

 

 

 

 

Khalilzad knows his side is losing on Afghanistan

"There is a risk that the United States and Afghanistan will not reach a deal on the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan after 2014. Both sides want to negotiate a bilateral security agreement. But President Obama, frustrated with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and determined to end the U.S. role in Afghanistan next year, has given Kabul until October either to conclude a deal or face unspecified unilateral actions by Washington. Recent leaks indicate that Obama is contemplating a total drawdown of U.S., and thus international, forces. My discussions with officials in Washington and Afghanistan have left me thinking that an agreement is unlikely to be signed by October. Mistrust at the leadership level, different threat perceptions and Obama’s arbitrary but politically potent deadline for ending the war all pose significant obstacles. "  Zalmai Khalilzad

----------------------------------------

Khalilzad is a long term neocon operative.

I remember the time just after the first Gulf War when Khalilzad was my guest for lunch at the Army and Navy Club in Washington.  He was then some sort of minor sub-cabinet  political appointee in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.  He had authored a draft strategy statement for DoD that was a preview of the neocon vision of imperial expansion and sphere of influence policy that became dominant in the Bush 43 Administration.  This draft statement had been discarded when the Army General Staff leaked it to the press to kill it.  He was still smarting over that at the time of our lunch.  I argued with him over the policy he had advocated .  He became enraged and shouted at me that "you people don't understand the way to use power!   You have a responsibility to spread freedom and American power!"  I found that amusing since he never served a day in his life except as a consultant to State and Defense before his neocon pals had him appointed to OSD.  I asked him what he meant by "you people."  He said he meant most Americans.  He is an Afghan by birth.  The members in the A&N club dining room were not amused.

He now perceives that the neocon dream is fading as reality intrudes.  There will be no SOFA.  Khalilzad's dream will soon be ended.  pl  

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/afghanistan-deal-faces-many-hurdles/2013/07/25/0f7b565c-f476-11e2-a2f1-a7acf9bd5d3a_story.html 

 

Afghans trying to shake down the US government

"Afghan officials allege that U.S. contractors hired to transport equipment failed to turn in documentation for billions of dollars in equipment shipped into the country since the 2010 troop “surge.” This month, Karzai’s cabinet came up with the $70 million fine, citing at least 70,000 cases in which the United States failed to process the necessary customs paperwork. “How do we collect the fines for these violations?” Najibullah Wardak, the director general of the Afghan Customs Department, said in an interview Wednesday. “The only way is to stop all trucks from crossing the border. What else can we do?”"  Washpost

-----------------------------------------------

This is a standard "shake down" technique practised across the region from Morocco to Bangla Desh.  It is a common thing for governments to try to charge customs duty on everything foreign military forces or aid organizations bring into a country.

The fact that this is "coming to a head" in Afghanistan is an indication that the flow of cash money is drying up.

The US government should not pay a dime's worth of fines in this scam.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/flow-of-us-military-gear-across-afghan-borders-halts-amid-dispute/2013/07/17/3c1fa7cc-ef07-11e2-bed3-b9b6fe264871_story.html

 

 

"... And nobody to use it." Washpost

"The windowless, two-story structure, which is larger than a football field, was completed this year at a cost of $34 million. But the military has no plans to ever use it. Commanders in the area, who insisted three years ago that they did not need the building, now are in the process of withdrawing forces and see no reason to move into the new facility. For many senior officers, the unused headquarters has come to symbolize the staggering cost of Pentagon mismanagement: As American troops pack up to return home, U.S.-funded contractors are placing the finishing touches on projects that are no longer required or pulling the plug after investing millions of dollars."  Washpost

------------------------------------

 Yup.  They are going to demolish it.  That's a shame.  It would make a great goat barn.  This folly and some of the others listed here are monuments to rigidity and a lack of realism in the military construction process.  This started in 2009?  Wasn't Stanley McChrystal up in Kabul then doing things like shutting down a Cappucino bar in his headquarters.  How did he and/or Petraeus miss this foolishness?  During the period in which this facility was constructed troops in field outposts were living in hovels like some of those I have seen pictured.

At the same time, someone made a lot of money on this and other foolish projects. The whole story of the Afghanistan War has been edited in such a way as to disguise the magnitude of the graft involved on the part of American and Afghan contracters.  This could only hqave happened with the connivance of people who were at or near the top in US Government.

Karzai knows how corrupt the contracting process has been.  That does not make US relations with him any easier. pl 

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-brand-new-us-military-headquarters-in-afghanistan-and-nobody-to-use-it/2013/07/09/2bb73728-e8cd-11e2-a301-ea5a8116d211_story.html

 

The "Zero Option" is the only realistic option

"Mr. Obama is committed to ending America’s military involvement in Afghanistan by the end of 2014, and Obama administration officials have been negotiating with Afghan officials about leaving a small “residual force” behind. But his relationship with Mr. Karzai has been slowly unraveling, and reached a new low after an effort last month by the United States to begin peace talks with the Taliban in Qatar. Mr. Karzai promptly repudiated the talks and ended negotiations with the United States over the long-term security deal that is needed to keep American forces in Afghanistan after 2014."  NY Times

-----------------------------------

This is all nonsense.  Karzai continues to treat Obama with contempt.  He evidently sees POTUS as easily deceived, easy to manipulate and as someone who can be "plucked like a turkey."

Obama has begun to understand the depth of the disrespect to him and therefore to all Americans. This is a bitter thing when the extent of American sacrifice in life, limb and money is considered.

The truth is that Karzai (or any other Afghan likely to be in power) will seek to exploit the resources of the United States as long as possible while denying cooperation with ever greater frequency as the end of US presence approaches.

In the end the Afghans hold the "trump card" in this game in that they can simply refuse to grant legal extra-territoriality to US forces after 2014.  

Obama should end this farce,  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/world/asia/frustrated-obama-considers-full-troop-withdrawal-from-afghanistan.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Afghanistan - where is the SOFA?

Karzai is not running for another term.  He will leave office on a date that roughly coincides with the end of NATOs mandate in his country and Obama's stated intention to withdraw.  Karzai clearly holds the US and its "leadership" in amused contampt.

Afghans don't want foreign soldiers in their country.  There are continuing incidents involving attacks by people in Afghan uniforms on foreign soldiers.  There are continuing accusations by Afghans of "atrocities" committed by foreign soldiers, aircraft, etc.  There are demands for foreign soldiers to be tried under Afghan law.

Why would anyone think that the Afghans are going to give us legal extra-territoriality for indefinite time when they can get rid of us by not agreeing to a SOFA?

You think that they will want the flow of materiel and offshore training to continue and that will require them to give us a SOFA?  I don't think so.  The Iraqis refused to give us a SOFA.  We have 200 plus military people stationed in the embassy in Baghdad who are documented as diplomats under the Vienna Convention.  That gives them immunity from Iraqi law.  They are there for the express purpose of managing the continuing flow of materiel into Iraq and arranging offshore training.

The pattern is obvious.  Is this Obama's real exit strategy?  pl  

http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/18/world/asia/afghanistan-handover/index.html 

http://www.rferl.org/content/nato-afghanistan-georgia/25008287.html

Memorial Day 2013 by Hank Foresman

The wife of a friend with whom I served in the Army and who shall retire this summer and whose son was killed in Afghanistan, wrote this on her Face Book page, we should all pause and remember those who have given their all for us and our nation.

Over the past several days everywhere I have been someone has wished upon me to have a great holiday weekend. I too used to be guilty thinking that this weekend was about the end of the school year and the welcoming of summer. It has taken your absence and sacrifice to help me to understand that his weekend is not about sales at stores, picnics or pools. We will celebrate your life this weekend and honor you and all that have made the ultimate sacrifice. You are missed beyond words. I love you always.

Let us reflect on these words from the Book of Common Prayer:

 ALMIGHTY God, our heavenly Father, in whose hands are the living and the dead; We give thee thanks for all those thy servants who have laid down their lives in the service of our country. Grant to them thy mercy and the light of thy presence, that the good work which thou hast begun in them may be perfected; through Jesus Christ thy Son our Lord. Ame

In memory of Sergeant Andrew McConnell, Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori.

Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Sequester - Trust?

-Syria .   So now we have the emergence of supposed proof of Assad's government being in violation of the self assigned "red line" of poison gas use against the rebels. Let's see the proof.  Let's see and hear something beyond Andrea Mitchell beating her drum for war.  This is especially important on this day when the arch deceiver (or buffoon) is fawned over at his presidential library.  He still does not admit that his administration chose to believe fabricated information in the matter of Iraq's posession of nuclear weapons and poison gas. Now we have Obama and his Sancho Panza man (Biden) walking the American people toward war in Syria in pursuit of god knows what interest of the US. Don't think for a minute that a "no fly zone" over Syria is anythng but war against the Syrian government.  There would be massive movement of air assets to Turkey, Israel and Jordan.  There would be sufficient air to air combat to destroy the Syrian Air Force.  There would be Search Air Rescue operations in Syria for downed air crew.  And at the end there would be a Saudi satellite jihadi state in Syria.  We should be trusting about this?

- Iraq.  Civil War on sectarian lines has begun again in Iraq.   We were told that we had done a good thing in Iraq.  GW Bush still says we did.  What good did we do?  We replaced one dictator with someone who is rapidly becoming another.  The government of Iraq is at war with the Sunni Arab population.  Is that not clear?

- Afghanistan.  Is it not clear that our effort to transform Afghanustan has failed?  Is it not clear that we should leave as soon as possible and stop throwng good money and people after bad and foolish efforts?

-The Sequester.  In the gun fight in the senate, the Obama Administration used every trick of propaganda and tear jerking to try to get its way.  All those efforts failed, failed miserably.  Now the same techique is being used to try to influence the American people to force the Congress to adopt Obama's budget.  IMO sequester cuts are being structured to cause maximum pain and inconvenenience to the general public.  White House tours are cut.  National monuments are closed.  Air traffic controllers are laid off so as to cause delays in air traffic with travelers waiting hours in aircraft for take offs.  At the same time, major defense contracters report no change in their bottom line.  that will probably change but for now...

Should we be trusting?  pl 

Thoughts on Korea and "Progress" in Afghanistan

Korea - The DPRK has withdrawn from the Armistice of 1953.  Does that mean that they consider themselves to be at war with the UN once again?  If so, what are the US and the UN doing to prepare for defense against aggression in Korea?  Are dependents being evacuated and US civilians resident in Korea being encouraged to leave?  Are the missing parts of 2ID being returned to Korea?  Are they there already for the exercise?  I khow that USFK  has worked endlessly and expensively on the early warning problem in Koreaa.  How confident are they that we would have substantial early warning of hostilities initiated by the DPRK?

Afghanistan - "Everybody" who is anybody in the media or government prattles endlessly about "the progress we have already made in Afghanistan."  What the hell does that mean?  We have made progress in killing off AQ people and their organization, but anyone who who thinks we have "made progress" in pacifying Afghanistan and making it a place unfriendly to jihadi Islam is either a delusional COINista or just lying to support BHO Administration policy.  THERE IS NO "PROGRESS" IN counterinsurency in Afghanistan.  Give it up!  pl

Karzai says we are the enemy

""The explosions in Kabul and Khost yesterday showed that they are at the service of America and at the service of this phrase: 2014. They are trying to frighten us into thinking that if the foreigners are not in Afghanistan, we would be facing these sorts of incidents," he said during a nationally televised speech about the state of Afghan women."  Chroncom

********************************

"Karzai said in his speech that any foreign powers that want to keep troops in Afghanistan need to do so under conditions set forward by Afghanistan. "We will tell them where we need them, and under which conditions. They must respect our laws. They must respect the national sovereignty of our country and must respect all our customs," Karzai said. "

----------------------------------------

It doesn't sound as though an agreement on post 2014 legal extraterritoriality (the SOFA) is any closer.  That last was meant to be ironic.  BHO has stated (properly I think) that there will be zero US troops in Afghanistan after 2014 without one.  This would not include the people in the Defense Attache Office in the embassy.  They are covered by the Vienna Convention on the status of diplomats. 

The conspiratorially minded already believe that the United States' effort in Afghanistan has been motivated by a desire to possess the goods of that wretched place.  Rare earths like lithium, oriental carpets, pistachios, opium, perhaps the odd Bactrian camel, a Yak or two; these are supposedly the spoils for which the US has poured out so many wasted billions of dollars and rivers of blood.

In fact, American policy has been based on the idiocy of armed nation building (COIN) as a fantasy of the foreign policy establishment.

Karzai is president of Afghanistan.  His remarks foreshadow the state of Afghan life after 2014.  He is "feathering his bed" for the time of our final departure.  He knows that what has been wrought in Afghanistan in the last 12 years will disappear like snow in the springtime.  pl

 

http://www.chron.com/news/world/article/Afghan-leader-alleges-US-Taliban-are-colluding-4342917.php

Karzai redux as pickpocket.

"Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai has ordered that all U.S. special forces must leave Wardak province, just west of Kabul, within two weeks — citing allegations of disappearances and torture. In a statement Sunday, a spokesman for Karzai said, "after a thorough discussion, it became clear that armed individuals named as U.S. special force stationed in Wardak province engage in harassing, annoying, torturing and even murdering innocent people." "  NBC News

-------------------------------

Irony alert.

Everything will be all right.  This is just a misunderstanding.  They must have our people confused with some other group of foreign soldiers. 

Irony End.

As we said here a while back, the Afghans are busy picking our pockets.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2013/01/httpblogswsjcomwashwire20130111transcript-obama-karzai-press-conference.html

Some naif here in the US probably still believes that Karzai's government will give the US legal immunity.  Wanna bet?

Irony re-alert

I don't suppose this has anything to do with that province (Wardak) being largely Hazara.  The Green Berets  have been training the Hazara villagers there to defend themselves against the Pushtun Taliban. Karzai is a Puushun.

Irony-de-alert

The US government could well be described as a "ship of fools." pl 

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/24/17076037-afghan-president-orders-us-forces-out-of-key-province?lite

Karzai says go slow on immunity and alliance

"The Afghan president said Monday that a meeting of the nation’s elders should convene to decide whether U.S. troops staying in the country after 2014 would be immune from prosecution under Afghan law. President Hamid Karzai’s remarks were his first since returning from Washington, where he met last week with President Barack Obama about the future of the alliance between the two countries. "  Washpost

---------------------------------

As I said below in "Hamid Karzai - Pushtuun Pickpocket," people like Karzai, or any other Afghan, Iranian or Arab are easy to read if you have eyes to see, and ears to listen.   The trick is to see them the way they see themselves, not the way most Westerners want to see them.   IOW get out of your own skin and sandals and into theirs.  pl   

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/president-karzai-says-afghan-elders-need-to-decide-if-us-troops-can-be-immune-from-prosecution/2013/01/14/ff5c906a-5e2f-11e2-8acb-ab5cb77e95c8_story.html

Hamid Karzai - Pushtun Pickpocket

"... if we have a follow-on force of any sort past 2014, it’s got to be at the invitation of the Afghan government and they have to feel comfortable with it. I will say — and I’ve said to President Karzai — that we have arrangements like this with countries all around the world, and nowhere do we have any kind of security agreement with a country without immunity for our troops. That’s how I, as Commander-in-Chief, can make sure that our folks are protected in carrying out very difficult missions. And so I think President Karzai understands that. I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves in terms of the negotiations that are still remaining on the bilateral security agreement, but I think it’s fair to say that, from my perspective at least, it will not be possible for us to have any kind of U.S. troop presence post-2014 without assurances that our men and women who are operating there are in some way subject to the jurisdiction of another country. "  Barack Obama

--------------------------------

"We understand that the issue of immunity is of very specific importance for the United States, as was for us the issue of sovereignty and detentions and the continued presence of international forces in Afghan villages and the very conduct of the war itself. With those issues resolved, as we did today, part of it — the rest was done earlier — I can go to the Afghan people and argue for immunity for U.S. troops in Afghanistan in a way that Afghan sovereignty will not be compromised, in a way that Afghan law will not be compromised, in a way that the provisions that we arrive at through our talks will give the United States the satisfaction of what it seeks and will also provide the Afghan people the benefits that they are seeking through this partnership and the subsequent agreement. "  Hamid Karzai

**************************

What's the old Kipling "saw" about trying to "hustle the East?"  IMO, we "wuz" robbed.

What happened in this meeting in Washington was that Karzai and the Afghans got everything they wanted and promised nothing that they cannot walk away from once they get through "picking our pocket" in slow motion between now and the end of 2014.

Karzai got any number of substantial concessions towards the notion of Afghan "sovereignty."

The most important of these was the assumption of control and security responsibility for the whole country's territory by the Afghan forces.  Are these forces ready and capable to do that?  They probably are not is the correct answer.  Will they ever be ready?  Maybe not.  1 - Afghanistan is unlikely to ever have enough income to pay for the forces we have created for them.  Where will they get their money if not from us, rare earths and oriental carpets?  2 - The apparent disparity between ethnic "nations" in Afghanistan and the composition of the "Afghan" Army is unpromising as a basis for the integrity of the state. 

Another American concession was the transfer of prisons and prisoners to Afghan government control.  This means that after the date of that change, US forces will be unable to detain hostiles encountered in the field in combat.  Remember, POTUS reminded us that those soldiers left in Afghanistan will still be in harm's way.

In the same way, the declaration that NATO (US) troops will be barred from entry into Afghan villages after the turn-over date this spring, means that we will not in any real sense control Afghanistan after this change.  We will be confined to our bases, offering assistance to the Afghans for them to accept or reject.

At the same time Karzai said that there were some things that the Afghan Army wanted to keep receiving from the US.  1- Intelligence - What?  The Afghans cannot collect information against targets lodged within their own peoples?  2 - Artillery - What?  They want a lot of artillery for the purpose of fighting a counter-guerrilla war in their own country?  3 - Aircraft, helicopters, etc.  They can't afford them.  They will never be able to maintain them without an "army" of foreign contractors paid for with US money.

What did the US get in return?  Permission to leave the classroom?

Karzai's statement about extra-territorial legal immunity for our soldiers is meaningless.  He says that based on our concessions to Afghan sovereignty he can "argue" for immunity for American troops in a way that does not compromise Afghan sovereignty or law.  All he promises is to "argue" and that argument is to be for an "immunity' that does not compromise anything important to the Afghans.  There are numerous bodies in Afghan "society" that can refuse his supposed argument.  The parliament, or a "loyah jurga," or mass opinion expressed in the streets, and most significantly in a general election before the end of 2014.  The immunity issue will surely be a major feature of that election after which Karzai will not be head of state and the new government will be free to repudiate whatever commitments Karzai might have made.

Yup, we "wuz" robbed.  You have to wonder if POTUS believes tht what he said yesterday  is actually true.  pl 

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/01/11/transcript-obama-karzai-press-conference/

There will be no SOFA in Afghanistan

There is very little chance that the Afghan government will agree to post 2014 legal extra-territoriality for foreign troops in their country.

For some reason the US foreign policy establishment refuses to understand or to admit that it understands that for Muslim populations and governments it is not possible to accept the apparent superiority of the law of a non-Muslim country on their soil.  This is a religious issue.  Islam is a seamless garment.  In Islam all aspects of life are welded together into a seamless whole.  Islam is centered on law as the essence of the submision of man to God.  To allow "infidel" law to be applied as being in some sense a symbol of the superiority of the infidel power is simply unacceptable to Muslims.

Iraq and Afghanistsan regretfully accepted a de facto SOFA during the wars of the last decade.  They did that because they had no choice.  Once Iraq developed enough leverage to refuse that concession to the US, it did so.  Afghanistan will do the same.

there will be no US troops in Afghanistan after 2014.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOFA

Interesting times in Pakistan (FB Ali)

With its estimated 190 million population and its nuclear arsenal, Pakistan is an important country in its own right. However, its location makes it even more significant. Sitting next to Afghanistan, Iran and India, it plays a key role in the geopolitics of the region. It has been a major factor in the United States' two campaigns in Afghanistan, the first time playing a leading role in helping the Afghan mujahideen to expel the Soviet Union's occupying forces from their country, and, more recently, being blamed for the US's lack of success in defeating the Taliban insurgency.

Some recent developments, including some policy moves and changes, make it likely that the role that Pakistan has played in the region will change, as will the internal situation in the country. It is worth looking at these.

SST Potpourri - 28 november, 2012

"Despite  official U.S. assessments that al Qaeda leadership has been  “decimated,” some experts are insisting that the U.S. maintain a heavy  military footprint in Afghanistan — a strategy that will cost billions of dollars each year. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recently addressed the success of U.S. efforts against al Qaeda, saying “al-Qaeda has been significantly weakened in Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Its most effective leaders are gone. Its command, and control have been degraded, and its safe haven is shrinking….we have decimated core al-Qaeda.” The U.S. must still “finish the job” in Afghanistan, Secretary Panetta added, calling for continued commitment on both military and diplomatic fronts. "  Afghanistan Study Group

http://www.afghanistanstudygroup.org/2012/11/26/al-qaeda-decimated-but-us-considers-heavy-military-footprint-in-afghanistan/

-------------------------------------------------------

This is all nonsense.  The Afghans are not going to agree to a SOFA that gives US forces legal immunity in their  country and that will be the end of it.  The Pentagon should start preparing for that event.  pl

*****************************************

William Hague has said today Britain will back the Palestinian bid for United Nations observer status if they agree to peace talks with Israel.  The UK will abstain from debating the issue at the UN General Assembly as there are no guarantees Palestine president Mahmoud Abbas will negotiate.   Express.coDespite official U.S. assessments that al Qaeda leadership has been “decimated,” some experts are insisting that the U.S. maintain a heavy military footprint in Afghanistan — a strategy that will cost billions

--------------------------------------------------

So, the US and Israel will vote against non-member 0bserver status for the PA?  Why does the US continue with the farce of pretending to be an "honest broker" in this dispute?  The soon to be disunited Britain will abstain unless the Palestinians give up a right to press charges against Israel in the international courts?  The Palestinians will win the vote in the General assembly and then prefer charges against such as Natanyahu, Barak and Avigdor Lieberman.  This will expose these Israelis to extradition action by various member states.  Then Israel can be a prison for them in much the same way that Gaza is for the Palestinians.  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/9708521/Britain-will-abstain-on-Palestinian-bid-without-assurances-says-William-Hague.html

***************************************

"Fresh clashes broke out in Cairo on Wednesday near Tahrir Square, as riot police fired tear gas and charged at Egyptian protesters angry about a move by President Mohamed Morsy to extend his powers." CNN International

-------------------------------------------------

Egypt is on fire again.  There were 100,000 anti-Mursi demonstrators in Tahrir square yesterday.  The US media is obviously avoiding the subject of the imposition of a tyranny in Egypt.  It seems that the revelation of their own naivete two years ago is too much  for them to cope with.  And then there are the naifs and neocons in the governmenr who still cling to their hopes.  pl

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/28/world/meast/egypt-protests/?hpt=hp_t2

**************************************

"About 14 percent of the 1.4 million troops in the active-duty military are women. About 280,000 women were deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan. About 150 women died in those two conflicts. Although there may be growing support in the military to opening some jobs in combat units to women, there remains stiff opposition from the infantry, where the physical demands — like walking long distances carrying heavy loads and handling bulky weapons — are most demanding. In a widely circulated article, a female Marine Corps captain who served in Iraq and Afghanistan wrote in the Marine Corps Gazette this year that seven months in Afghanistan left her physically broken, with muscle atrophy in her leg and an ovarian condition that left her infertile. “I am confident that should the Marine Corps attempt to fully integrate women into the infantry, we as an institution are going to experience a colossal increase in crippling and career-ending medical conditions for females,” the article’s author, Capt. Katie Petronio, wrote. "  NY Times

----------------------------------------------

If I recall correctly there is a provision in law aganst womens' service in certain combat specialties in the infantry, armor and SF.  If that is so, then congressional repeal of that provision would also be necessary, but since the Congress can be expected to do anything "catchy" that appears popular, well...  I think that since these women see this as a civil rights jobs program issue they should be given the chance to "try it on." My only hope about this is that physical standards are not lowered to make this easier.  War is an equal opportunity employer.  It would be most unfortunate if some of these job seekers literally have to be carried.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/28/us/servicewomen-file-suit-over-direct-combat-ban.html?_r=0

 

 

"US Military Battling To Stay In Afghanistan Past 2014" - The Guardian

"Afghanistan and the US have opened talks to keep American troops in the country  after most Nato forces go home in 2014, but the thorny question of immunity for  American soldiers, which in effect ended the US role in Iraq last year, is  likely to prove a stumbling block.  

The issue has been thrown into sharp relief by the Seattle trial of the US  army staff sergeant Robert Bales, who is accused of the massacring 16 Afghan  civilians, mostly women and children, during a shooting spree at their homes in  March. US prosecutors are seeking the death penalty but many Afghans, including  some of the victims' relatives, want to see him brought before one of their own  courts."  The Guardian

Read more:  http://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-battling-to-stay-in-afghanistan-past-2014-2012-11#ixzz2CgJcMgUR

------------------------------------------------------------

This is going to go exactly the same way as the negotiations with Iraq went over a SOFA.  This is not a mutual security pact.  That kind of agreement was not a problem in Iraq.  A SOFA gives US forces legal extra-territoriality while in a given foreign country.

The case of SSG Bales is illustrative of the point of a SOFA.  Without a SOFA the Afghan government could demand that Bales be handed over for trial under Islamic law.  Actually, they could demand that any soldier be handed over  for any charge they wanted to make.

The wonkery across the world, the anti-Americans, the naive, etc., would probably think that a great idea.  Why should soldiers not be thrown to "the dogs"  or "the wogs"  if that is convenient.  After all, they are soldiers.  Isn't that the purpose for which they exist?  If they were worth more they would be working for a thinktank in Washington.

In spite of such sentiments, the SOFA problem will kill negotiations for a continued US presence.  The US military will not accept a SOFAless agreement and neither will the US population and its representatives in Congress.

Karzai may think that our desire for SOF basing in his "country," will cause us to bend on this.  It will not.  The generals, the wonks and the business looters may think that the "good times" will "roll on."  They will not.

Sooo, the US presence in Afghanistan will end at the end of 2014.  It will be lonely in the embassy.  pl  

 

Cut Defense and Prosecute the Corrupt

 "“U.S. and foreign contractors poured money into a limited number of Afghan powerbrokers who set up companies that were corrupt and did not perform. . . . In many cases, they also paid off insurgents to let them operate,” Cordesman wrote.

He suggested that the government “tightly control the influx of outside money, limit its flow to honest and capable Afghans at every level of government, and provide the transparency to allow Afghans to see how honestly and effectively the money is used.”"   Pincus

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/afghan-corruption-and-how-the-us-facilitates-it/2012/11/05/d7fbce5c-2520-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html

----------------------------

For years, I have told everyone in this wretched city (Washington) including Pincus that senior Americans (not sergeants) and their retired government buddies have been participating for years in the awarding of huge contracts to Afghans in or close to the government.  This is not news.  pl

********************

"... supplemental budgets were sought for the two wars, putting the costs, now near $1.5 trillion, on a credit card. Meanwhile, Defense’s core budget has risen about 4 percent a year, adjusted for inflation, except for the past two years. As Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) points out, President Obama’s plan to reduce 100,000 Army troops and Marines over the next five years will still leave ground forces larger than those existing at the time of the 9/11 attacks. Then there are the funds wasted on failed efforts to modernize weapons systems. According to a 2011 CSBA study, “Over the past decade, at least a dozen major programs were terminated without any operational systems being fielded. The sunk cost of the terminated programs . . . for example, totals some $46 billion.” The Pentagon also is paying hundreds of millions to upgrade some systems, such as the F-22 stealth fighter plane. "  Pincus

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/time-to-terminate-the-warfare-state/2012/11/07/67955d68-2502-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html

--------------------------------

We can't afford this Defense Department.  Change the foreign policy, kill the acquisition contracts, pension people off after shrinking the ground forces and come home.  pl    

 

COIN failed again! Get over it!

"We will bear the heavy burden of the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan for years. U.S. soldiers will continue to serve in the region, assisting Afghan (and sometimes Pakistani) security forces against threats to the stability of both nations, conducting raids on insurgents and terrorists and preventing a broader war in South Asia. This is what success looks like in such wars." John Nagl  

----------------------------------

This book was Nagl's dissertation paper.  It appeared in print just at the moment that "the generals" were seeking an explanation for their own ignorance of anything other than conventional warfare.  He was lucky and has been riding that "hobbyhorse" ever since.  Nagl's fate as something other than a minor professor at a minor college or a minor headmaster at a private day school hangs in the balance dependent on the judgment of history on the COIN (nation building) doctrine that he has counseled for over a decade.  He cites VN as an example of the failure that follows upon a failure of will.  There is a certain truth to that.   The US concluded a phased withdrawal from VN in 1973.  A ceasefire was in place and remained in place for two years.  All that remained of the US presence in VN were a mere two thousand advisers to the RVN forces.  They were assigned to the Defense Attache Office.  After two years the Congress of the United States passed a decree that forbade any further assistance to the RVN under any circumstances.  This decree reflected American public opinion in an atmosphere in which a soldier could not walk down an American street in uniform without seeing people turn away.  The Communist Vietnamese "took the hint" and attacked into a morale vacuum created at least in part by Congress's action.  The United States was not "driven from VN."  There were no American non embassy people there to drive out.  Does Nagl know better?"  Or is he simply so desparate to be justified that he would deliberately deceive?  He cites Germany, Japan, South Korea and Bosnia as examples of countries that have required a virtually eternal American presence for strategic reasons.  He expects us to accept these examples in comparisons made with Afghanistan.  He (and his neocon friends) made the same argument with regard to Iraq until the Maliki government "disinvited" us.  His Cold War and Balkan examples fall flat.  The US never  fought in Bosnia except for a few air strikes.  There has not been war in the other places for fifty or sixty years.  The American presence there was decided upon in conditions of peace.  The neocons like to claim that Germany was in a state of resistance during the Allied Occupation.  Nonsense!  Germany in those days was as quiet as a church.  I lived there as a child at the time and wandered the streets of Bremen and Frankfurt with my German and American friends.   In contrast, there is war, probably eternal war, in Afghanistan.  War is what the Afghans do best.  They are in the process of rejecting our (NATO's) presence as an alien "protein."  To "win" and transform Afghanistan into a simulacrum of the US would be a work of ages.  Nagl evidently thinks that would be a good idea.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-look-of-success-in-afghanistan/2012/10/19/94673f98-1a0b-11e2-aa6f-3b636fecb829_story.html

**********************

"In 2009, when the White House approved plans to build a combined Afghan force of more than 300,000, the principal concern in Washington was the cost to sustain it once most U.S. troops depart, not the ability to assemble it. The sustainment cost is now projected at $4.1 billion a year, more than twice the Afghan government’s overall annual revenue. Much of that price tag will have to be borne by the United States, which already has spent almost $50 billion over the past decade to build the force. U.S. and NATO commanders say the Afghan army and police are progressing well despite an array of challenges that include Taliban intimidation, the lack of an existing officer corps, and rampant illiteracy, which makes it difficult to train soldiers in specialty skills." Washpost  

------------------------------

What collection of idiots decided that it was a good idea to build a force bigger than Afghanistan could ever possibly afford without US money?  Ah!  Nagl's idiots.  pl

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/afghan-security-forces-rapid-expansion-comes-at-a-cost-as-readiness-lags/2012/10/20/38af200a-16cb-11e2-a55c-39408fbe6a4b_story.html?hpid=z1

We Have Met the Enemy and He is Us: The Responses to Green on Blue Problems in Afghanistan

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Several weeks ago the Washington Post** reported on one of the responses to the Green on Blue attacks in Afghanistan.  While the way this is labeled is not exactly right, as green on blue would be Afghan civilians attacking the US military (we use green for the population/host country nationals), blue, obviously for the military and in this case specifically the US and coalition forces, the problem does exist and does need to be addressed.  What the article tells us is that a guide has been developed for Afghan soldiers to teach them "...the strange ways of the American soldier. The goal is to convince Afghan troops that when their Western counterparts do something deeply insulting, it's likely a product of cultural ignorance and not worthy of revenge."

Given my understanding of how we interact with the Afghan National Security Forces, I have a hard time believing that they came up with this on their own.  My informed guess is that we came up with this.  This screams "thought up by someone who is in charge of mandatory, quartely training by powerpoint!"  This also tells me that we have given up, at least for Afghanistan, on trying to come to terms with our cross-cultural competency (3C) problems.  3C is all the rage in both the corporate and military worlds.  And it is important, the problem is that we have over ten years of research on it - some good, some meh, some bad - and it all focuses on the precursors to actually being cross-culturally competent.  The focus is on predicting who will be good at it and then trying to figure out what kind of training and education will get them to comptency (read that as proficiency).  We do not pay much attention to actually certifying anyone as cross-cultural competent in terms of being able to actually perform.  What the approach outlined in the WaPo artile indicates is that if we cannot get this right among ourselves, cannot police ourselves up so we do not do stupid things that cause blowback from the Afghans, we might as well mandate that the Afghans learn it.  That way, the next time there is an incident, and there will be, its not our fault - the Afghan's have the cross-cultural sensitivity manual and training, its their fault for not being understanding of our inability to get this right...  Whoever came up with this has got to be the same type of person  that thinks that going through a pdfed powerpoint on "bath salts" once a year is going to solve the problem of military personnel huffing the stuff...

"US commander in Afghanistan says he is "mad as hell"" Heraldsun

"ISAF commander General John Allen told US 60 Minutes program in an interview recorded before the latest incident, and scheduled to be aired today, that insider attacks were unacceptable.

"I'm mad as hell about them, to be honest with you," he said.  "We're  willing to sacrifice a lot for this campaign, but we're not willing to  be murdered for it."

Gen Allen said that just as  homemade bombs had become the signature weapon of the Iraq war, he  believed that in Afghanistan, "the signature attack that we're beginning  to see is going to be the insider attack"."  Heraldsun

---------------------------------------

OK.  He's "mad as hell."  So what?   Perhaps he should move on.  NATO command in Brussels has been suggested as a destination for him. There he will find "natives" who like "frites with mayo" and who are not offended by seeing their colleagues naked in the showers, or by swearing and who may not be offended by personal family questions about their womenfolk.  Belgians are more used to our "brutish ways" and make allowances for Americans, Australians, Germans, etc., well, maybe not the Germans.

Having spent many years learning laboriously a whole and very full menu of do's and don'ts in the Islamic World I find all this to be a sick joke.  The Army and USMC have spent decades and much effort to produce officers who are career specialists in Islamic and Arab affairs.  Such officers don't make stupid mistakes like asking a Muslim to see a picture of his wife or even asking about her (them).

Have any of these specialist men or women been given a significant command in these wars?  If they have I have not heard of the event.  Instead the general officer of the line caste prefers to install in command people like themselves but often incapable of dealing with the "natives."

Allen is "mad as hell?"  Me too, I am mad as hell that this political marine is in charge out there rather than someone competent.  pl

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/five-die-in-nato-afghan-troop-firefight/story-e6frf7k6-1226485474885

 

 

"Taliban Outflank U.S. War Strategy with Insider Attacks" Porter and Noori

"... the Taliban have power over whether conditions return to a level that would allow resumption of the joint operations between NATO and Afghan forces, which have been touted as the key to preparing the ANA and the police to cope with the Taliban on their own. The Taliban have achieved a strategic coup by creating a high degree of U.S.-NATO fear and mistrust of the Afghan forces. Even if some joint operations are resumed, moreover, they will be limited to those approved by regional commanders, according to the new policy. And White House spokesman Jay Carney appeared to contradict the ISAF “return to normal operations” language, telling reporters, “Most partnering and advising will now be at the battalion level and above.” ISAF Commander Gen. John Allen has tried in the past to minimise the role of the Taliban in the insider killings, suggesting that as little as 10 percent of the Afghan soldiers and police who killed NATO troops were Taliban infiltrators. Most of the killers acted out of personal anger at their Western advisers, Allen argued."  Porter and Noori

---------------

General Allen can argue what he likes but the Taliban have found the key to a stratagem that will give the "coup de grace" to the Afghanistan COIN project.  The possibility of a nurturing, mentoring relationship lay at the heart of the plausibility of the theory of a gradual transfer of power from ISAF to the Afghan forces that NATO has tried so hard to create in its own image.  The Taliban's program of destroying the possibility is lethal to the effort.  General allen says that most of the killings are caused by Afghan hatred of their trainers.  Does he realize what he is saying?

The Newshour and John Nagl

The Newshour persists in inviting the COIN charlatan, John Nagl, to comment on the "progress" of the Afghan War.  Last night (transcript not yet available) they used him and Vali Nasr, dean of SAIS, for interrogation by Judy Woodruff.  For some reason the Newshour has misidentified Nagl as a retired lieutenant general when in fact he retired from the Army as a lieutenant colonel.  Perhaps they think that gives his remarks greater weight.  I wrote to them about this and they have changed the label on their website.

Nasr was the sensible person that he always is.  Nagl continues to expect us all to believe that all is well in Afghanistan, that the training of the Afghan military and police is proceeding well in spite of minor disturbances caused by the murder of NATO people by these same Afghan security forces.  Nagl said at the end of his self destructive comments that all will be well because the US will persist in Afghanistan for another ten years at least, and remain committed to Afghan security indefinitely.

Well, he doesn.t have anywhere else to go rhetorically.  When the end comes, his end as a public person will come with it.  Perhaps he could write another seminal book about how wrong he was in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  It could be entitled, "Learning to play Buzkashi without a horse."  pl

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec12/afghanistan2_09-17.html

"Deja Vu" in Afghanistan

""We're all seized with (the) problem," Dempsey was quoted as saying. "You can't whitewash it. We can't convince ourselves that we just have to work harder to get through it. Something has to change."" Timescall  

-----------------------------

Add this unsolicited statement by CJCS to the "stand down" order on combined operations with Afghan forces and you have, IMO, the death knell of the expeditionary war in Afghanistan.  If you make your living servicing this war, look for other work.

the situation in Afghanistan will not change.  The COIN illusion of change in the hearts of the Afghans is exposed as a deception perpetrated by ignorant fools.

The meeting between Dempsey and Allen in Kabul must have be a scene worthy of the art of the greatest of dramatists.

Look for Allen to go early in the new term and a suitably disguised rapid withdrawal to begin.  pl

http://www.timescall.com/news/nationworldnews/ci_21559125/army-gen-martin-dempsey-says-afghanistan-must-take

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-troops-ordered-to-make-major-reduction-in-joint-operations-with-afghan-forces/2012/09/18/71f34dd6-017d-11e2-b257-e1c2b3548a4a_story.html?hpid=z1

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Regiment_of_Foot

 

 

$180 million in airplanes and two US Marines lost to "raggedy assed guerrillas"

We have technology.  The Taliban guerrillas don't have technology.  They have the ability to think creatively "outside the box."  This base is in Helmand Province where the marines fought their private war for a year to make the province safe for the central government.

They wore our uniforms and drove through the gate to the airfield as though this were an episode of "Hogan's Heroes."  One would expect that a Pushtun version of Richard Burton in one of this commando roles would have led the expedition.  There was one survivor in the attacking party and he was captured wounded.  If he lives he will one day be a hero to his people.

The United States is pulling itself inside out over four KIA in Benghazi.  Hey! Look over here!  Look what happened at Camp Bastion!  These "ragged assed jihadis" dressed in our uniforms destroyed six Harrier jump jets.

At the same time, Afghan policeman are killing NATO soldiers at an ever increasing  pace.  2014?  Are you kidding?  Get out of Afghanistan in 2013 or settle in for another 50 years.  Pacification will take that long.  pl  

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/09/16/taliban-raiders-wore-us-uniforms-camp-bastion_n_1887751.html

The Nagl zombie, Afghanistan and the Newshour.

"LT. COL. JOHN NAGL: So, the basic problem in Afghanistan -- there are many -- one of them is that we're working in a country that's really been devastated by 30 years of war. So the human capital really isn't there.

In Iraq, the soldiers knew how to read. They didn't know how to fight. In Afghanistan, the soldiers know how to fight, but not how to read. And, unfortunately, it's harder teaching people to read than it is to teach them to fight.

So, we're struggling with basic human infrastructure problems. The other big problem is that we really took our eye off the ball in Afghanistan for so many years while we were focused on Iraq.

And we have been playing catch-up ball for the last couple of years.

And so as you rush to build a force in a very short period of time, some bad apples slip through.

And we're seeing some of that. We're also seeing continually cultural connection problems, so,

Americans, even after 10 years working in this country, burning Korans, American Marines desecrating Taliban corpses. And that sort of cultural conflict and tension does erupt into violence in this kind of society.

MARGARET WARNER: Is there any -- you mentioned the Iraq war. Is there any precedent for an occupation force, a force like the United States, training up such a huge indigenous force so quickly in modern warfare? 

LT. COL. JOHN NAGL: We tried to do similar things in Iraq, actually.

After quite cleverly disbanding the Iraqi force, we decided that that was a bad idea and decided to rebuild it. General David Petraeus worked hard in that effort to rebuild an Iraqi force, but he was working from a much larger force that had previously existed, a much better trained force.

MARGARET WARNER: And, as you said, they could read.

LT. COL. JOHN NAGL: And they could already read."  Newshour

--------------------------------

"And they could already read."  Yeah?  So what?  Does Nagl think that these Afghans are killing our men because they cannot read?  I was training 3rd world soldiers when Nagl was in diapers.  Our " manual" was the same warmed over colonial anti-revolution doctrine that Nagl worships.  It sounds better in French.  Their training never had anything to do with literacy.  "Reading" has little to do with basic soldiering, very little.

The Newhour in its headline manages to make it seem that LIEUTENANT COLONEL Nagl commanded the training of the Afghan army.  The Afghan "hands" here can tell us if that is true or if it is true that he trained some smaller number.  The false prophets of the COIN revelation included a number of people who had limited real experience of counter-revolutionary warfare but possessed a burning desire to write a book about what had been "shown" them on "the mountain."  Another man like that is Kilcullen who was a LIEUTENANT COLONEL in the Australian Army.  His real world experience seems to have been one year as the commander of a support COMPANY in East Timor.  The rest of the time he was some sort of analyst.  And then he wrote a book?  No, no, there were several articles.

Nagl says that if only we have patience and stay committed to the COIN mission in Afghanistan for another 10 years, then all will be well.   Perhaps if he had worked for imperial Britain in the mid-nineteenth century that might have been possible.  IMO we will be largely out of Afghanistan by the end 0f 2013.  That withdrawal will end Nagl's fantasy.

One must ask - what does the Newshour think it is doing?  pl

 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/july-dec12/afghanguest_09-05.html

 

"Global blivet" de Borchgrave

"Newsweek quotes one Afghan officer who says he understands why "our men are  shooting U.S. and NATO soldiers."

"I have been personally hurt by the way American forces behave toward my  soldiers, our villagers, our religion and culture. Too many of them are racist,  arrogant and simply don't respect us," he said.

U.S. soldiers are watching their backs against Afghan soldiers for fear of  insider attacks. Once cordial relations and visits to each other's quarters have  stopped. Some Afghan soldiers are Taliban guerrillas ordered to false-flag  volunteer to kill U.S. advisers."  de Borchgrave

-----------------------------------

"Too many of them are racist,  arrogant and simply don't respect us," he said.

I believe it.  In the time before 9/11, US  military relations with the Muslim World were a matter of military attaches, training missions, Green Beret missions, etc., The personnel requirements of ths work were quite small and could be "covered' with specialists who liked workig with foreigners, were adaptable, felt deep respect for people of alien culture and wanted a life of high adventure.

Since 9/11 the main forces of the Army and USMC are directly exposed to such alien populations.  The US arned forces are reflective of the collective thoughts, feelings and biases of the various US populations.  They have been taught by thei whole lives to believe that the USA represents the future of mankind and that any foreigner with any sense wants to be an American and that local customs, religion, and folkways are inhrently backward and something that the "natives" will abandon when they see the American model available for imitation.

No number of  "shake and bake" courses and classes given to soldiers on the subject of cultural sensitivity will change  the collective mentality of men and women who think they have been sent to Afghanistan or wherever to "save" the natives from themselves.

We were better off when working with "the natives' was left to those who enjoyed the work.  pl  

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/de-Borchgrave/2012/08/30/Commentary-Global-blivet/UPI-51611346323180/#ixzz254BTaQLK

 

"Avoiding Creeping Defeat in Afghanistan..." CSIS

"The US is not losing the war in Afghanistan in the classic military sense. The US, its allies, and Afghan forces still win virtually every direct military encounter. The problem is that this is a political war where the political impact of combat, politics, governance, and economics are far more important than tactical success in directly defeating the enemy. At this level, the insurgents still seem to have significant momentum and are certainly not being decisively defeated.

Moreover, tactical military success is no guarantee of a successful Transition. The choice between victory or defeat will also center around the success or failure of the Afghan government and Afghan forces after most US and ISAF forces largely withdraw in 2014, and major cuts occur in aid and military spending. As was the case in Vietnam, the US can win every battle and still lose the war."  CSIS Burke Chair

------------------------------------

All this could have been said of my biggest war, all of it.  pl

http://csis.org/publication/avoiding-creeping-defeat-afghanistan-need-realistic-assumptions-strategy-and-plans

Ragtag Revolts in Parts of Afghanistan Repel Taliban - NY Times

"In small mountain villages on Taliban turf in eastern Afghanistan, Pashtun tribesmen took up arms to fight the insurgents this summer, fed up with their heavy-handed tactics of closing schools and threatening families whose sons had joined the Afghan Army. Connect With Us on Twitter Follow @nytimesworld for international breaking news and headlines. Twitter List: Reporters and Editors . The New York Times Ghazni and Laghman provinces have fought for the Taliban. “They wanted to make our children illiterate and miserable,” Malik Ghulam Rusal, a district elder, said about the Taliban. “We told them that if you want to wage jihad, go and fight the foreigners, not ordinary people. But they did not listen "  NY Times

----------------------------------------

Afghans will be Afghans.  This error on the part of the Taliban is much the same as the gross error made by AQ in Iraq.  The Wahhabi salafism of the jihadis does not allow for local variants of Islam.  The attempt to impose uniformity of practise was a fatal mistakr in Iraq.

My advice to the NATO command would be to stay away from this revolt.  If you touch it you will contaminate it in the eyes of the counter-insurgents.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/26/world/asia/ragtag-revolts-in-parts-of-afghanistan-repel-taliban.html

Syrian Shoot down, Taliban kill party goers. Cairo garbage

- The Syrian jihadi rebels say they shot down a government helicopter over Damascus .  They might as well take credit for this one.  The government has at least 175 more.  Wiki

- Taliban "party-poopers" beheaded 17 men gathered for traditional singing and dancing in Helmand Province where the marines have spent so much time on COIN in the last couple of years.  Taliban Islam does not tolerate such frivolity as music and dancing.  Hmmm.  Cotton Mather wasn't this much of a prude.

- Garbage in Cairo is collected by Coptic Christians who feed the edible parts to pigs.  President Mursi's relations with the whole Coptic "thing" is still rather indeterminate.  Last year htere was a Muslim inspired general round-up and wasted slaughter of the swine and as a result the Cairene population is faced with a crisis of garbage accumulation.

You couldn't make this stuff up if you were writing fiction nobody would believe it.  pl

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/afghan-officials-insurgents-behead-17-civilians-17084685

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-rebels-shoot-down-military-helicopter-over-damascus/2012/08/27/7a380314-f030-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/egypts-garbage-crisis-bedevils-morsi/2012/08/26/6fdfad1e-ec6a-11e1-866f-60a00f604425_story.html

 

 

Is there a US policy in the Islamic World?

I think that is a valid question:

- In Egypt we support consolidation of power by an obviously Muslim Brotherhood run government.  To that end, HC and her deputy, Bill Burns,  have traveled to Cairo to threaten and cajole the Egyptian military into accepting what the Egyptians know will become an Islamist state with all that promises for women, Christians, homosexuals, etc.

- In Afghanistan we are engaged in a very long, very costly war against an Islamist guerrilla army that has the support of many in that country.  It is claimed that the Afghan soldiers and police who are killing our men are merely "disaffected." Yes, but their disaffection is largely the result of their anti-kaffir xenophobia.  We are now in the process of abandoning the failed COIN strategy in favor of a CT based strategy that I advocated three years ago, but that was then.  This is now.  The time has probaby passed.

-In Iraq, we created a government that rejected any real strategic relationship with us and now conspires with Iran to halp Iran evade the sanctions regime.  But, we still say we love them.

- In Tunisia, the Islamist element in the new government is seeking to erase French culture in the country.  We look fondly upon them.

- In Yemen we directly assist the new Yemeni government in seeking the annhilation of the small Sunni Wahhabi insurgent movement.  In so doing we align ourselves with the Sunni majority of the former PDRY against the Fiver Shia population of the North who are thought to be somehow related to Iran.  They are not.

- Iran.  Well, I won't even try to deal with that here.  We await Israel's initiative.

- Saudi Arabia.  We await their desires as well.

- Syria.  We support a Sunni Wahhabi led, financed and armed insurgency against a government that has traditionally been hostile to Islamist groups.

What's the connecting thread here?

Don't embarrass yourself by saying oil and Israel.

"It is a tale told by an ifdiot."  pl

Green on Blue Attacks in Afghanistan

"An Afghan civilian employee shot three soldiers, all from the US, at a base in Helmand province on Friday evening.

Earlier on the same day, also in Helmand, an Afghan police officer shot three US marines after inviting them to dinner at a checkpoint. The suspected killers in both attacks were detained, the US military says.

The killing of two British soldiers in Helmand was also announced on Friday, bringing to eight the number of coalition soldiers killed in Helmand in 48 hours. There is mounting concern over attacks on Nato troops by their Afghan allies.

Members of the Afghan security forces have killed 34 international coalition soldiers this year, in 26 incidents, US military spokeswoman Maj Lori Hodge told the BBC. "  BBC

----------------------------

Is the Taliban strategy to kill as many NATO people as possible in the belief that this will eventually wear down NATO's will to continue? That appears to be the case.  If it becomes true that NATO personnel cannot trust the people they are training and advising, then that is probably an effective method.  pl 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/afghanistan/story/2012-08-10/afghanistan-attack/56943458/1

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g5Gzdyj23xG8B4pwYdu7MHuzJbkQ?docId=CNG.0a4e52814bdbb17f662d0a35c58373db.7c1

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19221821 

The Afghan military is reverting to type

 

"After U.S. soldiers left Combat Outpost Conlon in February — packing up weapons, generators and portable toilets — their Afghan successors rushed to the American barracks and command center, eager to inspect their inheritance. The Afghans renamed Conlon in Dari and scrawled Koran verses on the walls. The base was now theirs, and they were proud." Washpost

-----------------------------

An old, old story.  If we could have stayed 200 years or maybe even 50 there might have been some significant change in the military.  That was never possible.  Any fool should have seen that was not possible politically.

They can't maintain what we left tham?  What a surprise!  We used contracters?  Yes, but a few decades ago we soldiers used to do much of what contracters do now.  We had no trouble doing that.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/months-after-americans-leave-an-afghan-base-in-disrepair/2012/08/02/gJQApMfzSX_story.html