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11 February 2021

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JerseyJeffersonian

Patrick,

Andrei Martyanov (SmoothieX12) put up this post on the topic of NATO/EU saber rattling.

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/02/people-are-talking-about-it-warning.html?m=0

It starts with a quote from an article a few years back from Col. Douglas Macgregor about the true costs of peer on peer warfare that should - should - make one think. But given that the anti-Russian neocons like Victoria "Cookies" Nuland are back in the government, such well-founded worries might be lightly tossed aside.

Andrei tries to convey the serious consequences of such ill-considered hyperaggresiveness on the part of the US/NATO/EU. The Russian Federation will not be punked. But with Biden "in charge" (i.e., being led by the nose by overconfident morons), one may legitimately fear for the worst.

On Slow Joe, these words from an old Virginia farmer seem apt:


https://www.riverdavesplace.com/forums/attachments/screenshot_20201010-134807-jpg.930848/

joey_n
if it weren't for the USSR – 80% – and the Anglosphere – 20% – they'd all be goose-stepping around in leather giving each other Hitler salutes
I've heard rumors that the Anglosphere supported Hitler and his attack on Russia early on, that Hitler based his racial laws on similar policies in the USA and UK, and that the Anglosphere began attacking Hitler's Germany only after it became clear that Germany was losing to Russia. Some even said Franco was supported by the Anglosphere in the name of 'anti-communism' until his death in 1975. Can you confirm/dispute any of these? Thanks.
Patrick Armstrong

@joey Lots of people say this. There is some -- but only a bit -- of truth in it. There was no universal reaction. I recommend
https://www.amazon.ca/Origins-Second-World-War-ebook/dp/B002RI8ZNC/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=origins+of+the+second&qid=1613137200&s=digital-text&sr=1-2

As to something Russians often say, that D Day was delayed until it was clear the Sovs were winning, that's not true. D Day couldn't have happened earlier
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/06/26/d-day-more-difficult-than-you-think/

turcopolier

All

There had been desire on the American side to invade in 1943 but the British argued correctly that there would not be enough of anything until 1944.

Ghost Ship

It looks like Lukashenko in Belarus is using the political persecution of Donald Trump to go after one of the leaders of the Belarus insurrection at the last election. The charge, "conspiracy to seize state power & setting up extremist group", does sound familiar.

j. casey

Russian diplos certainly turning up the heat on the hapless EU this week. Some kind of sea change? Charges against NATO folks behind the Maidan and ongoing shelling of civilians in Donbass?

Patrick Armstrong

@ j casey I think the EU is a good, cheap place for Moscow to make the point.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/11/04/goodbye-has-russia-had-enough-insults/

Fourth and Long

The panel here might appreciate a reading of Gilbert Doctorow's latest on Lavrov's recent statement regarding the EU:

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/


“If you want peace, prepare for war!” Sergei Lavrov, 11 February 2021 speaking on cutting relations with the EU

In a televised interview on Russian state television yesterday, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov made this declaration together with the threat to cut relations with the EU if Russia’s vital economic interests were put in danger by any further sanctions they might consider imposing. His remarks were clearly calculated to turn on a light in the thick skulls of EU Parliamentarians, of the EU Commission run by former German Defense Minister von der Leyen, and of her deputy for external relations Borrell.

“Prepare for war” is an old bit of wisdom that we have heard from time to time coming from the Kremlin together with related folk wisdom such as : if you do not finance properly your own army, you will be financing someone else’s army; and if you cannot deal with Lavrov, then you will have to deal with Shoigu (Russian Defense Minister).
(Continued at link above).

ISL

PA,
Re:Covid19 - I read the tripe, and I think tripe is too good a term to describe it - the author claims that the impressive 1.2 billion doses ordered is solely based on positive memes!

With Sputnik V and the failure of Astra Vectra (against the new variants) Russia has major leverage.

The EU primarily imports oil and gas from Russia, and give Chinese growth (and EU anti-growth), it seems likely that Russia could easily shift these EU exports east - china-Russia trade has doubled in the last four years, which could absorb most of the oil and gas directed at the EU in a few years.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1003171/russia-value-of-trade-in-goods-with-china/

I am guessing Nordstream 2 will be finished and not used to allow for it to be turned on (perhaps at a premium) at a future date (perhaps when the EU breaks up).

See also,

https://www.statista.com/topics/5947/trade-in-russia/#:~:text=China%20was%20Russia's%20major%20trade,country's%20third%20largest%20import%20origin.

Cortes

The arguments over the timing of the invasion are covered in detail in

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1304117.War_Diaries_1939_1945

in which Alanbrooke was not shy about describing the need to rein back Churchill from making premature commitments to schemes and scheduling. His portrayal of Churchill was thought to be the main reason he was passed over in the postwar awards of plum appointments.

(The British delegation flight back from Moscow to Tehran is notable for the off-the-cuff poem by Wavell on why there will be no Second Front in 1943).

The discussions with US commanders are never less than extremely interesting.

irf520

Those Russians might have some good missiles - but do they have solar powered tanks?

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/nato-chief-suggests-battle-tanks-with-solar-panels-as-militaries-go-green-1.1160313

Don't want to be emitting too much CO2 while blowing things up.

Patrick Armstrong

@irf520 Solar-powered tanks. Sounds great -- wars in the desert only.
But thanks for this: I an contemplating a paper about how NATO uses its military as a captive group for social experiments while at the same time wanting to fight everybody everywhere.
Tentative title "mincing towards war"
This is good material.

J

@Patrick

I liked Putin's speech at Davos.

It's a good thing that Russia has been working on its own internet. Take a look at this:

https://dailylibertynews.com/us-government-mass-censorship-last-week-did-you-notice/


"On February 2nd, less than two week after Biden’s inauguration, we noticed a complete shutdown of VPN services. No other servers on the internet were affected. These were only the VPNs. They became terribly, terribly slow.

Did you notice? Did you think that was your VPN provider screwing up?

It wasn’t. It was the US Government.

They used a special type of technology called DPI(Deep Packet Inspection) that was able to differentiate regular server traffic with traffic that was using a VPN.

This was all uncovered by one of the most seasoned tech experts on the internet. A new video by a tech privacy guru named Rob Braxman Tech was how I learned about this issue.

Fortunately, there are ways around this issue which Rob Braxmen has brought up.

There are ways of what tech experts call “obfuscating” so it does not look like VPN traffic. People in China have been developing ways to fight these VPN sniffers for decades.

So, Liberty Lover, it might actually be with the help of very intelligent people in China who have already figured out how to defeat firewalls so that we can defeat the Deep State and protect our First Amendment rights."

Fred

Patrick, irf520,

In addition to solar tanks we have the LCS, which, to quote Lord Fisher, can neither "run nor fight" (who would ever think a navy need do that), and, to top it off, we're getting tranny ready:
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/Statements/display-statements/Article/2481990/statement-from-cno-on-transgender-policy-change/

Sure glad we have our priorities straight.

Patrick Armstrong

@Fred Gist of what I'm going to be writing. Probably starting tomorrow.
1. military used as lab mice for woke experiments
2. weapons built to make cost overruns not victories
3. belligerent and interventionist foreign policy

result catastrophe.


Fred

Patrick,

I look forward to your analysis, and concur, catastrophe is brewing.

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