Is an Israeli air strike on Iran imminent? - TTG

Top Israeli military figures have slammed as “empty” and “inappropriate” the recent anti-Iran remarks made by the Israeli regime’s army chief of staff lieutenant general Aviv Kochavi. In his remarks on Tuesday, Kochavi said the Israeli military was revising its attack plans against Iran amid fresh efforts by the new US administration to reverse Trump’s Iran policy. He warned the Biden administration against rejoining the 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal, which was abandoned by the Trump administration in May 2018, saying such a move “would be bad and not the right thing to do.”

“I instructed the army to prepare a number of operational plans in addition to the existing ones,” Kochavi’s said. “We are taking care of these plans and will develop them during the coming year. Those who decide on carrying them out, of course, are the political leaders. But these plans have to be on the table,” the Israeli general said.

Kochavi’s remarks were met with trenchant criticisms – even among the critics of the nuclear agreement, which was reached during former President Barack Obama’s time in office.

Amos Gilad, a former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, said the threat of military action against Iran was an empty one and such a strike would never happen without the backing of the United States. “You think you would carry out a strike without strategic cooperation with the United States? It will never, ever happen,” Gilad said in an interview on the 103FM radio station on Wednesday. “Understand that these are all just words.” He warned that harsh remarks that contradict the position of the new American administration “could be seen as defiance” by the White House, adding, “That’s not how you lead a policy.”  (PRESS TV)

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BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:20 P.M.) – The spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, Major General Abu Fadl Shikaraji, threatened to “destroy Tel Aviv” in case Israel “makes any mistake” against Iran. “Israel’s threats are part of psychological warfare, and if they are realistic, then they are illusions,” Shkaraji said, adding that the Iranian army “will destroy Tel Aviv and erase it if Israel commits any stupidity against our nuclear facilities.”

“The Israeli army lives in a state of terror and is too weak to carry out its threats on the ground,” he said, adding that “Israel’s threat to destroy our nuclear facilities is just illusions and pipe dreams.” Shkharji stressed that the Iranian army “will destroy the Israeli missile bases as soon as Iran is exposed to any attack,” noting that “the large part of Iran’s military capabilities have not been revealed.”  (AMN)

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“If the Zionists make a foolish move or any mistake, even the slightest one, against Iran, they will face a reaction that will destroy Tel Aviv and hasten the end of their regime,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi told Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam news network. He also said the Iranian Armed Forces have been strengthening their defensive capabilities day by day, and that the country is capable of carrying out strategic operations to level the enemy to the ground.  (PRESS TV)

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These excerpts from Iranian Press TV and Al Masdar News articles capture the current state of play in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian confrontation. Israeli and Iranian verbal chest thumping is at an all time high. If blustery language were bombs, we’d be deep into WW III. However, Gilad is correct. Without US strategic cooperation, there will not be a massive conventional air attack on Iran. And that strategic cooperation is unlikely to be forthcoming under Biden, even though there are still plenty of Borg clowns in this administration just itching for just such an attack. 

Throughout the Obama and Trump administrations the most probable scenarios involved massive US air and missile strikes against Iran to obliterate Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure and bring about regime change. These strikes would be in conjunction with Israeli strikes or reluctantly launched after an insufficient initial Israeli strike. The goal, Israel’s goal, was always to eliminate Iran as a threat to Israel. There was nothing in it for us other than pleasing Israel and risking WW III.

The goal of US administrations was to prevent this, usually by placating Israel in various ways. No one, not Bush, not Obama, nor Trump wanted the US involved in a war against Iran. However, they were all plagued by swarms of Israel Firsters praying, many literally praying, for war. Obama’s approach was the JCPOA. Israel viewed the JCPOA as an existential threat to their goal. Trump had a different approach, trash the JCPOA and embark on a policy of maximum pressure to collapse the regime in Tehran. Like previous administrations, this maximum pressure policy did not envision a massive US air attack.  

Israel decided she could work with this. This became apparent when we learned of another Trump Tower meeting in 2016. This one had nothing to do with Russia. It was all about Iran and how the US, Israel, the UAE and the Saudis would force regime change in Tehran. It included a proposal to create a UAE-Saudi anti-terrorist force that would supplant the need for the US to police the region. Not that bad a plan, really. Getting rid of JCPOA was easy. It was an Obama agreement. Of course Trump would scuttle that. The same for selling weapons and ordnance to the Saudis and UAE. That’s profitable business. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani may or may not have been a part of this maximum pressure policy. 

An important part of this grand plan was a robust regional strategic realignment. Israel’s close military cooperation with the UAE began in the 1990s. It was low key, but extensive. Kushner’s grand Middle East bargain last year just made that official. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) appears to be the true power broker on the Arabian Peninsula rather than the Saudi Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). He was the driving force behind the Abraham Accords. MBZ is a Sandhurst graduate and has built the UAE military and intelligence into competent forces although they are largely foreign. He is measured, pragmatic and sits atop large oil reserves as well as a growing international financial hub. His hand is behind many of the events throughout the Arab world. He is definitely worth watching.

Now back to Israel and Iran. At one time the best Israel hoped for was the unhindered flight of the IAF across Saudi airspace enroute to Iranian targets. That limited hope has morphed into the possibility of the active involvement of UAE and even Saudi bases and forces in an attack on Iran. The addition of fifty F-35s to the UAE Air Force would greatly increase the strike capabilities of the current hundred or so F-16 and Mirage 2000 aircraft. Even though reaching full operational capability would be several years away, I think the IAF would be giddy with anticipation of this possibility in spite of their apprehensions about Arab F-35s. In the meantime, Israel and the UAE are building a joint intelligence base on Socotra. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are cooperating with Israel on missile defense, intelligence sharing, reconnaissance (both airborne and at sea) and cybersecurity. This Israeli-Emerati confidence building and integration will continue as long as MBZ sees it as advantageous.

The Saudi war on the Houthis has not helped Israel. Even though the UAE has pulled out of the conflict, Israel’s closeness to the UAE and growing cooperation with the Saudis have made Israel an active enemy of the Houthi. In response Iran has introduced the Shahed-131 and the more advanced Shahed-136 loitering munition UAVs to the northern Yemeni province of Al-Jawf. The Shahed -136 has an effective range of over 1,200 miles bring southern Israel and Gulf of Aqaba ship traffic within range. In response, Israel has had to station Patriot and Iron Dome AD systems at Eilat - the opening of an unwanted southern front in addition to the constant threat of Hezbollah to the north. This is also whatever missiles and drones Iran may have stationed in Iraq and Syria.

So, how will the Biden administration change Israeli calculations for a strike against Iran? Of primary interest to Israel is Biden’s desire to reenter the JCPOA and improve relations with Tehran. As I alluded to earlier, this is anathema to Israel. Will this make Israel antsy enough to strike? I don’t think so. Biden is also withdrawing support from the Saudi war in Yemen. He halted logistical and munitions support to the Saudis and paused the effort to provide F-35s to the UAE. The latter may even give MBZ pause for further open military cooperation with Israel. He wants those F-35s. We’ll never abandon Israel, but can we be relied on to provide logistical, intelligence and strike support to an Israeli initiated attack on Iran? In my opinion, it is no longer a sure thing.

And then there is Russia. The last thing she wants is an expanded war in the Middle East. Russia has recently signed several agreements to bolster Iranians defenses both air defenses and cyber defenses. Lavrov said that the construction of new units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant was discussed during his recent meeting with his Iranian counterpart. He also said "Russia hopes that the United States will return to the JCPOA and that this will be a condition for Iran to implement the JCPOA" and that "Moscow will continue its efforts to ensure that Iran and the United States fully comply with their obligations to the JCPOA in the near future." Russia’s demonstrated expertise in radio-electronic combat should make Israel think twice about a first strike. Not only would this expertise bolster Iran’s defenses, but Russia could hamper Israel’s strike capabilities from her bases in Syria and her ships in the Mediterranean. Russia would not sit this one out. 

In my opinion, an Israeli strike on Iran is not imminent. Nor is it in the cards in at least the next several years. Israel has to be sure of a convincing victory. A draw would further damage Israel’s aura of invincibility. Without that, Israel’s best and brightest will fly away leaving nothing but Talmudic scholars and angry Palestinians to hash things out. There will be conflict as well as more big talk and selling of wolf tickets like I posted at the top of this article. The political maneuvering will continue. Military capabilities will continue to be developed. The intelligence conflict will continue. The cyber conflict will continue. All this will continue until something breaks… one way or the other.

TTG 

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/29/644100/Israeli-figures-slam-Kochavi-empty-rhetoric

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iranian-army-spokesman-threatens-to-destroy-tel-aviv-if-israel-attacks-irans-nuclear-facilities/

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/28/644011/Iran-Israel-threat-Dehqan-Shekarchi 

       

Comments

[The Twisted Genius]

Polish Janitor,

You are probably on to something with the possible effects of the Belt and Road initiative. It stands a good chance of realigning the entire region once it comes into fruition.

[The Twisted Genius]

wtofd,

As far as I can see, the drone threat from northern Yemen is the first of its kind from that direction. Any missile threat from the Sinai to Eilat would be much smaller if it is a threat at all.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

re: "Your Turkish media keeps lying about Kurds as being Israeli pawns"
Mike,
I do not use "Turkish Media", or any other "media" for information. If you do, here is a compilation link from the izzies:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/topic/israel-kurdish-relations/
See you in Afrin. Let us know if you will have female kurds protecting you.

Ishmael Zechariah

[turcopolier]

TTG

Why do you think that this is the first Yemeni attack using drones? Surely it is not because Pompeo scoffed at the idea.

[BillWade]

Sorry, off-topic:

Hunter's dad is thinking about scrapping Space Force, would use money for green deals instead.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

The Houthis have their own drones and have used them to great effect against Saudi targets. I think we discussed their strike against a Saudi oil facility last year. These Shahed-136 drones are Iranian and are a departure from the drone and missile components the Iranians most likely supplied the indigenous Houthi drone industry. The Iranian Shahed-136s are a threat to Israeli targets unlike the Houthi drones.

[PavewayIV]

TG - Insightful as always. Any potential for Saudi Arabia or UAE financially collapsing in your opinion? I'm curious how Israel would respond if their Sunni Human Shield between themselves and the Persian Gulf starts disintegrating. You can probably guess what head-chopping inclined group might seek to take advantage of that kind of situation.

I'm reading between the lines in the international financial press and speculating here. Neither the al Sauds or al Thanis are ever going to say a peep, so impossible (for me, anyway) to have any degree of certainty - it's a bit over my head. The tabloid version of their imminent demise can be found regularly in Manoj Nathani's now-paywalled blog []. He obviously has an ulterior motive, but scrolling back through the last 20 or so article titles gives one a general idea of what could be going on (in that hair-on-fire hand-waving sort of way).

I don't subscribe and have not read his articles - the titles and particular companies or firms he mentions are what I'm looking at. I'm not asking for any kind of comment on his... well, sensationalist view, but more on the possibility of 'What if the royals and wealthy elite have run their kingdom/emirates into financial ruin (cash-wise, anyway)? What would Israel do if the central square in Riyadh or Abu Dhabi turns into a head-chopper's ball? I wouldn't expect Iran to act unless their shipping were threatened, but Israel wouldn't be happy about the fall of either state (or some hostile state actors now possessing all those weapons). I'm guessing CENTCOM (with some help) would get the job of cleaning up that mess.

[The Twisted Genius]

Bill Wade,

If true, it's a bad idea. Space Force seems to moving in the right direction. Who's trying to kill it? DOD? The services? In related news, there is the decision to establish SPACECOM, separate from Space Force, at Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Alabama. I bet there'll be a big lobbying push to retain SPACECOM in Colorado. The move to Alabama is scheduled to take six years.

[turcopolier]

TTG

Does the existence of USCENTCOM as a combatant command threaten the existence of the US Army? I think not. USSPACECOM, a combatant command, has components from both the Army and Space Force. Joe wants to "cancel" everything Trump did. That may be reason enough to seek to eradicate the US Space Force.

[The Twisted Genius]

PavewayIV,

I wouldn't bet on long-term stability for the Saudis, but the UAE seems to be in pretty good hands with Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ). Sure he's an autocrat, but he's smart and pragmatic. He's establishing a diversified economy adding tourism, trade and financial services to the UAE oil industry. He's made treaties and deals with Iran and others. He's dealt with the Israelis for decades, but he is certainly not subservient to them. He won't sacrifice the UAE's interests for Israel. I think the UAE will be around for the long haul. If anything it will be MBZ who pulls the Saudi's cookies out of the fire.

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

Space Force is law. Biden can't cancel it unless he enacts more law. I have seen nothing about Biden even wanting to cancel Space Force. When directly asked, Psaki said the administration hasn't even thought about it. I think what Bill Wade heard was just more QAnon style rumors. I do see a fight brewing about the ultimate location of USSPACECOM. The Air Force recommended it stay in Colorado, but the decision to move it to Alabama appears to be driven by politics. Trump wanted to reward Republican Alabama and punish Democratic Colorado. Biden could be just as petty and do the same in reverse.

[mike a]

IZ -

Ignore the Jpost. You can't believe anything printed there. The Izzies like to stir up the pot and defame others in order to further their own aims. They now have the Turks and Azeris on their leash along with the Saudis.

Afrin? Sounds like you are more than happy with Erdodog's annexation of a big chunk of Syria. Netanyahu is happy about it also. Erdodog is being led. It is not hard to guess who is pulling the strings.

[Leith]

Interesting quote from Air Force Magazine: “Currently the Space Force is underfunded; undermanned; and does not have the authorities for which it was stood up for to consolidate,...” If true it stands to reason that money spent on moving to Alabama would be better spent by leaving everything in Colorado and using the funds saved to upgrade capabilities.

The guy who made the quote is retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, dean of the Geberal Billy Mitchell Institute for Aerospace studies.

No hints yet that I'm aware of as to who is on Biden's shortlist for Secretary of the Air Force. Current Acting SecAF is John Roth who has a finance/budget background.

https://www.airforcemag.com/article/democrats-in-charge-what-to-expect/

https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Biographies/Display/Article/1411286/john-p-roth/

[JamesT]

Those gulfie water desalination plants seem like soft targets for me. Take them out and ... I'm guessing the foreign workers go home pretty quick, because money is nice but potable water is non-negotiable. Without foreign workers would UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar even function?

All that hardship so they can stand in solidarity with Israel? How could the gulfie royals not jump on planes to London?

[mcohen]

just circular nut grab.never heard of it ?.usa grabs irans nuts(non pistachio)and squeezes.iran says come on man go easy.usa says threaten the izzies to push negotiations trump started.as in past izzies grab the pals nuts and they say Iran save us and Iran tells gaza launch and they grab there own nuts and launch but miss open field and get direct hit on school and izzies grab there nuts and bomb qomb back to moses ages.
all for the sake of some nuts.

[BillWade]

Whoops, I should have been a little more curious regarding Space Force!

[English Outsider]

TTG - In a summary of the vaccination drive I watch, Israel and one of the Gulf States comes out at the top in number vaccinated. The UAE does OK -

https://www.ft.com/content/538db451-b165-4754-be53-da29b268e227

Meanwhile the sanctions are severely impeding Iran's response to Covid -

https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/12/iran-khameneis-reckless-ban-covid-19-vaccine

Don't know if the "reckless ban" is more than PR - looks like they can't get Western vaccines easily anyway.

The Yemenis expecting to get the vaccine in April/May, Saudis helping, seems -

http://www.businessworld.in/article/Yemen-to-receive-first-batch-of-Covid-19-vaccine-in-April-or-May/14-01-2021-365567/

New variants spreading, though the observed spread may reflect degree of genomic testing rather than actual spread -

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/31/which-countries-have-reported-new-variants-of-covid-19

Given that background, if there's a race in the ME between new variants and vaccination programmes the new variants are going to win.

Any chance that our bastards and their bastards might lay off the Grand Chessboard for a while, just until the pandemic crisis gets knocked into some sort of order?

[Ishmael Zechariah]

re: "Ignore the Jpost. You can't believe anything printed there. The Izzies like to stir up the pot and defame others in order to further their own aims"

Mike,
As Colonel Lang says "evaluate the message independent of the messenger." The following might be relevant:
1-Re-read the Yinon plan and the place of kurds in it.
2-Since the izzies own the US ME policy, I am wondering who is on whose leash.
3-Try and explain why the two Clintons and one Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, born Yael Tzemach, are singing paeans to the kurdish women fighters. Glorious female fighters, democrats, amazons...Cute.

FYI, those cadres did not perform too well in Afrin, despite the prognostications of some here. The results were not pretty. I and my friends would not advise fielding your women in leg infantry. Use them as your personal "protection" detail.

We put paid to the ziocon dream of a contiguous kurdistan by plugging Afrin. It somewhat spoiled "The Great Game". Now, however, with all the ziocon vermin back in power in the biden regime, the area might get hot again.

Ishmael Zechariah

[turcopolier]

BillWade

Curious about what? Do you know what the Unified Command Plan is? Do you understand the difference between Combatant Commands and the Services?

[mike a]

IZ -

n question used by investigators and prosecutors is 'Cui bono?' that translates roughly to 'who benefits'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cui_bono

So who benefits from Syria being cut in pieces? For that answer you need only to look no further than Syria's worst enemy, which happens to be the Izzies. They have been playing you and Erdo since the resistance to Assad started 10 years ago and before.

[ked]

TTG, "...the decision to move it to Alabama appears to be driven by politics."
That's putting it mildly. Standing up Space Command has been a long-term bi-partisan effort carried forward at DoD level. Trump made it part of his re-election thrust... great optics. He didn't need it to get AL's Electoral Votes... it's basically a one-party state.
Sen Shelby (the last of the Old School Southern Senators) will not be running again, so a fresh Senate seat will open up. In AL, these seats are assigned, voting is perfunctory (Jones election was a hilarious exception, reminding all of how primaries have replaced general elections in one-party states). Given the failure of QC displayed in putting a stupid ex-football coach in the Senate, the Shelby seat may be handed to infamous Cong Brooks, in return for his brave leadership displayed the morning of Jan 6th (& btw, close to Stephen Miller). Trump also rewarded another Hsv-local power broker (lawyer defending a 1/6 rioter) w/ a last-minute appt to a Federal Agriculture Advisory Board.
Upshot: the Space Command site-selection was a jammed-in fix. no way Biden admin (or SecDef / Sec USAF) will go along with rewarding AL GOP for Sen Football Coach & Cong "Kick Ass" Brooks by locating headquarters there. CO is a valid alternative...& (at least) a two-party state. Nothing personal, just business.

[Fred]

TTG,

"The Air Force recommended it stay in Colorado..."

How dare Alabama get all those high paying jobs. Sorry, I meant to ask just how many AF officers and associated civilian staff want to move to Alabama, and send their kids to Alabama schools, and socialize with Alabamans. It will help Alabama a great deal, especially in regards to income. We should move a couple of agencies out of D.C. for the same reason.

[The Twisted Genius]

English Outsider,

So far, I see a lot of "beggar thy neighbor" behavior in our pandemic response. Seems there are grumblings about equitable distribution among the EU countries. Granted we're still at the beginning of vaccine availability. We can't give what we don't have. Perhaps that will change in the coming weeks and months.

I am heartened by the world's response to Y2K. I was heavily involved in our response to that potential crisis. Beginning in 1998, an unprecedented spirit of cooperation blossomed among nations. We shared the identification of problems and solutions not just with allies, but with all including Russia and China. The result of that international cooperation was that Y2K was a non-event. I see no logical reason for failing to engage in that kind of international cooperation in response to this and future pandemics.

You're right. All those embracing embargoes of food, medicine or anything other than weapons and munitions are bastards. They deserve to have the living Jesus kicked out of them until they see the folly of their ways.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

re: So who benefits from Syria being cut in pieces? For that answer you need only to look no further than Syria's worst enemy, which happens to be the Izzies.

Mike,
We seem to be in violent agreement. the kurds have been agitating for "independence" and the break-up of Syria w/ the cover izzies and the USofA have been providing. Tools they are for the break-up of Syria, and tools they will remain.

As far as tayyip goes, he was all on board with this "Great Middle East Project" gambit until he realized where it would lead him and his spawn. Most of us consider him an "off-the reservation" zionist tool. He discovered the "Turk" in him when his ass was on the line. He and his ilk will get their just desserts sooner or later.

Ishmael Zechariah
P.s: ocalan, the "great leader" of the pekeke also used female kurds for bodyguards. I wonder if Les Triplets de Ayn-el-Arab; Hillary, Chelsea and Yael, will also include these sheroes in their "documentary".

[The Twisted Genius]

Fred,

Although I've never been to Redstone Arsenal, I have been to Peterson AFB. Peterson is gorgeous and I wouldn't be surprised if that played a part in the AF recommendation to keep SPACECOM in Colorado. More importantly, a lot of USSPACECOM's component parts will stay in Colorado which weighed heavily on the AF recommendation I'm sure. The actual SPACECOM HQ will only be around 300 strong. If Alabama wants to increase her share of the government teat, she should lobby for basing much of Space Force's training elements at Redstone. It could become a joint Army-Space Force base. That would bring more jobs and money into the state than the SPACECOM HQ.