Is an Israeli air strike on Iran imminent? - TTG

Top Israeli military figures have slammed as “empty” and “inappropriate” the recent anti-Iran remarks made by the Israeli regime’s army chief of staff lieutenant general Aviv Kochavi. In his remarks on Tuesday, Kochavi said the Israeli military was revising its attack plans against Iran amid fresh efforts by the new US administration to reverse Trump’s Iran policy. He warned the Biden administration against rejoining the 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal, which was abandoned by the Trump administration in May 2018, saying such a move “would be bad and not the right thing to do.”

“I instructed the army to prepare a number of operational plans in addition to the existing ones,” Kochavi’s said. “We are taking care of these plans and will develop them during the coming year. Those who decide on carrying them out, of course, are the political leaders. But these plans have to be on the table,” the Israeli general said.

Kochavi’s remarks were met with trenchant criticisms – even among the critics of the nuclear agreement, which was reached during former President Barack Obama’s time in office.

Amos Gilad, a former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, said the threat of military action against Iran was an empty one and such a strike would never happen without the backing of the United States. “You think you would carry out a strike without strategic cooperation with the United States? It will never, ever happen,” Gilad said in an interview on the 103FM radio station on Wednesday. “Understand that these are all just words.” He warned that harsh remarks that contradict the position of the new American administration “could be seen as defiance” by the White House, adding, “That’s not how you lead a policy.”  (PRESS TV)

————

BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:20 P.M.) – The spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, Major General Abu Fadl Shikaraji, threatened to “destroy Tel Aviv” in case Israel “makes any mistake” against Iran. “Israel’s threats are part of psychological warfare, and if they are realistic, then they are illusions,” Shkaraji said, adding that the Iranian army “will destroy Tel Aviv and erase it if Israel commits any stupidity against our nuclear facilities.”

“The Israeli army lives in a state of terror and is too weak to carry out its threats on the ground,” he said, adding that “Israel’s threat to destroy our nuclear facilities is just illusions and pipe dreams.” Shkharji stressed that the Iranian army “will destroy the Israeli missile bases as soon as Iran is exposed to any attack,” noting that “the large part of Iran’s military capabilities have not been revealed.”  (AMN)

————

“If the Zionists make a foolish move or any mistake, even the slightest one, against Iran, they will face a reaction that will destroy Tel Aviv and hasten the end of their regime,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi told Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam news network. He also said the Iranian Armed Forces have been strengthening their defensive capabilities day by day, and that the country is capable of carrying out strategic operations to level the enemy to the ground.  (PRESS TV)

————

These excerpts from Iranian Press TV and Al Masdar News articles capture the current state of play in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian confrontation. Israeli and Iranian verbal chest thumping is at an all time high. If blustery language were bombs, we’d be deep into WW III. However, Gilad is correct. Without US strategic cooperation, there will not be a massive conventional air attack on Iran. And that strategic cooperation is unlikely to be forthcoming under Biden, even though there are still plenty of Borg clowns in this administration just itching for just such an attack. 

Throughout the Obama and Trump administrations the most probable scenarios involved massive US air and missile strikes against Iran to obliterate Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure and bring about regime change. These strikes would be in conjunction with Israeli strikes or reluctantly launched after an insufficient initial Israeli strike. The goal, Israel’s goal, was always to eliminate Iran as a threat to Israel. There was nothing in it for us other than pleasing Israel and risking WW III.

The goal of US administrations was to prevent this, usually by placating Israel in various ways. No one, not Bush, not Obama, nor Trump wanted the US involved in a war against Iran. However, they were all plagued by swarms of Israel Firsters praying, many literally praying, for war. Obama’s approach was the JCPOA. Israel viewed the JCPOA as an existential threat to their goal. Trump had a different approach, trash the JCPOA and embark on a policy of maximum pressure to collapse the regime in Tehran. Like previous administrations, this maximum pressure policy did not envision a massive US air attack.  

Israel decided she could work with this. This became apparent when we learned of another Trump Tower meeting in 2016. This one had nothing to do with Russia. It was all about Iran and how the US, Israel, the UAE and the Saudis would force regime change in Tehran. It included a proposal to create a UAE-Saudi anti-terrorist force that would supplant the need for the US to police the region. Not that bad a plan, really. Getting rid of JCPOA was easy. It was an Obama agreement. Of course Trump would scuttle that. The same for selling weapons and ordnance to the Saudis and UAE. That’s profitable business. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani may or may not have been a part of this maximum pressure policy. 

An important part of this grand plan was a robust regional strategic realignment. Israel’s close military cooperation with the UAE began in the 1990s. It was low key, but extensive. Kushner’s grand Middle East bargain last year just made that official. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) appears to be the true power broker on the Arabian Peninsula rather than the Saudi Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). He was the driving force behind the Abraham Accords. MBZ is a Sandhurst graduate and has built the UAE military and intelligence into competent forces although they are largely foreign. He is measured, pragmatic and sits atop large oil reserves as well as a growing international financial hub. His hand is behind many of the events throughout the Arab world. He is definitely worth watching.

Now back to Israel and Iran. At one time the best Israel hoped for was the unhindered flight of the IAF across Saudi airspace enroute to Iranian targets. That limited hope has morphed into the possibility of the active involvement of UAE and even Saudi bases and forces in an attack on Iran. The addition of fifty F-35s to the UAE Air Force would greatly increase the strike capabilities of the current hundred or so F-16 and Mirage 2000 aircraft. Even though reaching full operational capability would be several years away, I think the IAF would be giddy with anticipation of this possibility in spite of their apprehensions about Arab F-35s. In the meantime, Israel and the UAE are building a joint intelligence base on Socotra. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are cooperating with Israel on missile defense, intelligence sharing, reconnaissance (both airborne and at sea) and cybersecurity. This Israeli-Emerati confidence building and integration will continue as long as MBZ sees it as advantageous.

The Saudi war on the Houthis has not helped Israel. Even though the UAE has pulled out of the conflict, Israel’s closeness to the UAE and growing cooperation with the Saudis have made Israel an active enemy of the Houthi. In response Iran has introduced the Shahed-131 and the more advanced Shahed-136 loitering munition UAVs to the northern Yemeni province of Al-Jawf. The Shahed -136 has an effective range of over 1,200 miles bring southern Israel and Gulf of Aqaba ship traffic within range. In response, Israel has had to station Patriot and Iron Dome AD systems at Eilat - the opening of an unwanted southern front in addition to the constant threat of Hezbollah to the north. This is also whatever missiles and drones Iran may have stationed in Iraq and Syria.

So, how will the Biden administration change Israeli calculations for a strike against Iran? Of primary interest to Israel is Biden’s desire to reenter the JCPOA and improve relations with Tehran. As I alluded to earlier, this is anathema to Israel. Will this make Israel antsy enough to strike? I don’t think so. Biden is also withdrawing support from the Saudi war in Yemen. He halted logistical and munitions support to the Saudis and paused the effort to provide F-35s to the UAE. The latter may even give MBZ pause for further open military cooperation with Israel. He wants those F-35s. We’ll never abandon Israel, but can we be relied on to provide logistical, intelligence and strike support to an Israeli initiated attack on Iran? In my opinion, it is no longer a sure thing.

And then there is Russia. The last thing she wants is an expanded war in the Middle East. Russia has recently signed several agreements to bolster Iranians defenses both air defenses and cyber defenses. Lavrov said that the construction of new units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant was discussed during his recent meeting with his Iranian counterpart. He also said "Russia hopes that the United States will return to the JCPOA and that this will be a condition for Iran to implement the JCPOA" and that "Moscow will continue its efforts to ensure that Iran and the United States fully comply with their obligations to the JCPOA in the near future." Russia’s demonstrated expertise in radio-electronic combat should make Israel think twice about a first strike. Not only would this expertise bolster Iran’s defenses, but Russia could hamper Israel’s strike capabilities from her bases in Syria and her ships in the Mediterranean. Russia would not sit this one out. 

In my opinion, an Israeli strike on Iran is not imminent. Nor is it in the cards in at least the next several years. Israel has to be sure of a convincing victory. A draw would further damage Israel’s aura of invincibility. Without that, Israel’s best and brightest will fly away leaving nothing but Talmudic scholars and angry Palestinians to hash things out. There will be conflict as well as more big talk and selling of wolf tickets like I posted at the top of this article. The political maneuvering will continue. Military capabilities will continue to be developed. The intelligence conflict will continue. The cyber conflict will continue. All this will continue until something breaks… one way or the other.

TTG 

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/29/644100/Israeli-figures-slam-Kochavi-empty-rhetoric

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iranian-army-spokesman-threatens-to-destroy-tel-aviv-if-israel-attacks-irans-nuclear-facilities/

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/28/644011/Iran-Israel-threat-Dehqan-Shekarchi 

       

Comments

[Leith]

The University of Alabama at Huntsville used to be world renowned for academics in rocketry and in software. Huntsville also known as 'Rocket City' got that nickname not only because of Redstone but also because of the George C. Marshall Space Flight Center located there.

Several decades ago when I worked as a consultant to McDonnell-Douglas Space Systems all the best astronautical engineers there were graduates of UAH and were called the Alabama Mafia. Ditto for the many Alabaman software engineers there that were writing code for satellite and launch vehicle telemetry.

However I agree that SpaceCom should stay in Colorado. Alabama does not need the jobs. Their unemployment rate is 3.9%, less than half of the 8.4% of Colorado. Those numbers are as of December 2020 by Trump's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SpaceCom should definitely have a small liaison office in Huntsville. Just to stay in touch with the Space center and with Redstone.

[The Twisted Genius]

Leith,

Redstone's Army Space and Missile Defense Command will serve as the component command to both SPACECOM and STRATCOM. The connection is solid no matter where the HQ is located. Probably ought to do a post on the current status of SPACECOM and Space Force. I have a feeling someone from Space Force will be briefing at a White House press conference soon. Psaki just said Space Force has the full backing of the Biden administration.

[Leith]

"Probably ought to do a post on the current status of SPACECOM and Space Force."

Please do, Although I would be more interested in your insight as to the current status of CyberCOM. And the corresponding agencies in GCHQ, NATO's CCDCOE in Tallin, and the Dutch DCC and others.

[turcopolier]

TTG

That would be a good idea. I can't seem to get through to these people. Perhaps it is the senility thing.

[ked]

TTG, Fred & Leith,
RSA & Hsv will do fine w/o Space Com hdqrtrs (which btw was previously awarded to CO Springs before yet another city protested). Just check out what they have already, under Tenant Orgs:
https://home.army.mil/redstone/index.php

The new FBI facilities & ops are worth 5000 direct jobs. The only help they need is a new Congressman. Cheers!

[mike a]

IZ -

We do agree on Israeli perfidy and double-dealing. But pls do not include me as being in agreement with your BS about the Kurds. The Independence Referendum was by Iraqi Kurds, not Syrians. In NE Syria, the Kurds don't want independence. They and many Arabs, Assyrians, Armenians, Circassians, and Turkmen in NE Syria only want to have the right to elect their own mayors and to have a few locals working in district administrations instead of 100% carpetbaggers from Damascus.

Also you seem to have a fetish for ladies with AKs. It is not just the YPJ. Arab women in Raqqa have formed the 'Martyr Amara Arab Women’s Battalion'. Many Assyrian women in NE Syria have joined the Bethnarain Militia. And then in Shirqat Iraq there is Wahida Mohamed al-Jumaily, who’s also known as Umm Hanadi. She and her 80-man militia are still tracking down former ISIL and beheading them for revenge. She is pissed off at Erdodog for funding ISIL. Says she is going to eat his liver and make a necklace of his nose and ears like one of her female ancestors did 14 centuries ago near Uhud Mountain.

[Jimmy_W]

SPACECOM being in Huntsville, may be a good idea in distancing Space Force and SPACECOM from USAF, helping them establish a more independent identity. If they care.

Locating in Huntsville can also bring in more NASA involvement / coordination.

Concentrating all assets in Colorado Springs is not a good idea.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

"Mike",
The independence "aspirations" of the syrian kurds, tools and collaborators of the USA and israel, but I repeat myself, have been written and discussed here many times. Backpedaling when the "autonomy" gambit did not work is too clever.

Save your breath about your female warriors. That might work for WOKE westerners. That is the reason for the increased propaganda by the ziocons. You keep evading the issue.

Let us chat about your tough cadres the day after the US forces leave Syria. If you wish to see the elephant earlier, we are in Afrin.

Ishmael Zechariah

[mike a]

IZ -

The US forces in Syria are not holding back the TKK and their al-Nusra best buddies. The Russians are doing that.

But the bigger question is why are you and Erdodog bragging about doing the heavy lifting for the Izzies by dismantling Syria for Jerusalem? Are Turks being 'Useful Idiots' for Israel? Or are they in solidarity with Zionist plans?

Tell your woke jokes to Umm Hanadi. See if it shames her into putting away her meat cleaver.