Top Israeli military figures have slammed as “empty” and “inappropriate” the recent anti-Iran remarks made by the Israeli regime’s army chief of staff lieutenant general Aviv Kochavi. In his remarks on Tuesday, Kochavi said the Israeli military was revising its attack plans against Iran amid fresh efforts by the new US administration to reverse Trump’s Iran policy. He warned the Biden administration against rejoining the 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal, which was abandoned by the Trump administration in May 2018, saying such a move “would be bad and not the right thing to do.”
“I instructed the army to prepare a number of operational plans in addition to the existing ones,” Kochavi’s said. “We are taking care of these plans and will develop them during the coming year. Those who decide on carrying them out, of course, are the political leaders. But these plans have to be on the table,” the Israeli general said.
Kochavi’s remarks were met with trenchant criticisms – even among the critics of the nuclear agreement, which was reached during former President Barack Obama’s time in office.
Amos Gilad, a former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, said the threat of military action against Iran was an empty one and such a strike would never happen without the backing of the United States. “You think you would carry out a strike without strategic cooperation with the United States? It will never, ever happen,” Gilad said in an interview on the 103FM radio station on Wednesday. “Understand that these are all just words.” He warned that harsh remarks that contradict the position of the new American administration “could be seen as defiance” by the White House, adding, “That’s not how you lead a policy.” (PRESS TV)
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BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:20 P.M.) – The spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, Major General Abu Fadl Shikaraji, threatened to “destroy Tel Aviv” in case Israel “makes any mistake” against Iran. “Israel’s threats are part of psychological warfare, and if they are realistic, then they are illusions,” Shkaraji said, adding that the Iranian army “will destroy Tel Aviv and erase it if Israel commits any stupidity against our nuclear facilities.”
“The Israeli army lives in a state of terror and is too weak to carry out its threats on the ground,” he said, adding that “Israel’s threat to destroy our nuclear facilities is just illusions and pipe dreams.” Shkharji stressed that the Iranian army “will destroy the Israeli missile bases as soon as Iran is exposed to any attack,” noting that “the large part of Iran’s military capabilities have not been revealed.” (AMN)
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“If the Zionists make a foolish move or any mistake, even the slightest one, against Iran, they will face a reaction that will destroy Tel Aviv and hasten the end of their regime,” Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi told Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam news network. He also said the Iranian Armed Forces have been strengthening their defensive capabilities day by day, and that the country is capable of carrying out strategic operations to level the enemy to the ground. (PRESS TV)
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These excerpts from Iranian Press TV and Al Masdar News articles capture the current state of play in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian confrontation. Israeli and Iranian verbal chest thumping is at an all time high. If blustery language were bombs, we’d be deep into WW III. However, Gilad is correct. Without US strategic cooperation, there will not be a massive conventional air attack on Iran. And that strategic cooperation is unlikely to be forthcoming under Biden, even though there are still plenty of Borg clowns in this administration just itching for just such an attack.
Throughout the Obama and Trump administrations the most probable scenarios involved massive US air and missile strikes against Iran to obliterate Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure and bring about regime change. These strikes would be in conjunction with Israeli strikes or reluctantly launched after an insufficient initial Israeli strike. The goal, Israel’s goal, was always to eliminate Iran as a threat to Israel. There was nothing in it for us other than pleasing Israel and risking WW III.
The goal of US administrations was to prevent this, usually by placating Israel in various ways. No one, not Bush, not Obama, nor Trump wanted the US involved in a war against Iran. However, they were all plagued by swarms of Israel Firsters praying, many literally praying, for war. Obama’s approach was the JCPOA. Israel viewed the JCPOA as an existential threat to their goal. Trump had a different approach, trash the JCPOA and embark on a policy of maximum pressure to collapse the regime in Tehran. Like previous administrations, this maximum pressure policy did not envision a massive US air attack.
Israel decided she could work with this. This became apparent when we learned of another Trump Tower meeting in 2016. This one had nothing to do with Russia. It was all about Iran and how the US, Israel, the UAE and the Saudis would force regime change in Tehran. It included a proposal to create a UAE-Saudi anti-terrorist force that would supplant the need for the US to police the region. Not that bad a plan, really. Getting rid of JCPOA was easy. It was an Obama agreement. Of course Trump would scuttle that. The same for selling weapons and ordnance to the Saudis and UAE. That’s profitable business. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani may or may not have been a part of this maximum pressure policy.
An important part of this grand plan was a robust regional strategic realignment. Israel’s close military cooperation with the UAE began in the 1990s. It was low key, but extensive. Kushner’s grand Middle East bargain last year just made that official. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) appears to be the true power broker on the Arabian Peninsula rather than the Saudi Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). He was the driving force behind the Abraham Accords. MBZ is a Sandhurst graduate and has built the UAE military and intelligence into competent forces although they are largely foreign. He is measured, pragmatic and sits atop large oil reserves as well as a growing international financial hub. His hand is behind many of the events throughout the Arab world. He is definitely worth watching.
Now back to Israel and Iran. At one time the best Israel hoped for was the unhindered flight of the IAF across Saudi airspace enroute to Iranian targets. That limited hope has morphed into the possibility of the active involvement of UAE and even Saudi bases and forces in an attack on Iran. The addition of fifty F-35s to the UAE Air Force would greatly increase the strike capabilities of the current hundred or so F-16 and Mirage 2000 aircraft. Even though reaching full operational capability would be several years away, I think the IAF would be giddy with anticipation of this possibility in spite of their apprehensions about Arab F-35s. In the meantime, Israel and the UAE are building a joint intelligence base on Socotra. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are cooperating with Israel on missile defense, intelligence sharing, reconnaissance (both airborne and at sea) and cybersecurity. This Israeli-Emerati confidence building and integration will continue as long as MBZ sees it as advantageous.
The Saudi war on the Houthis has not helped Israel. Even though the UAE has pulled out of the conflict, Israel’s closeness to the UAE and growing cooperation with the Saudis have made Israel an active enemy of the Houthi. In response Iran has introduced the Shahed-131 and the more advanced Shahed-136 loitering munition UAVs to the northern Yemeni province of Al-Jawf. The Shahed -136 has an effective range of over 1,200 miles bring southern Israel and Gulf of Aqaba ship traffic within range. In response, Israel has had to station Patriot and Iron Dome AD systems at Eilat - the opening of an unwanted southern front in addition to the constant threat of Hezbollah to the north. This is also whatever missiles and drones Iran may have stationed in Iraq and Syria.
So, how will the Biden administration change Israeli calculations for a strike against Iran? Of primary interest to Israel is Biden’s desire to reenter the JCPOA and improve relations with Tehran. As I alluded to earlier, this is anathema to Israel. Will this make Israel antsy enough to strike? I don’t think so. Biden is also withdrawing support from the Saudi war in Yemen. He halted logistical and munitions support to the Saudis and paused the effort to provide F-35s to the UAE. The latter may even give MBZ pause for further open military cooperation with Israel. He wants those F-35s. We’ll never abandon Israel, but can we be relied on to provide logistical, intelligence and strike support to an Israeli initiated attack on Iran? In my opinion, it is no longer a sure thing.
And then there is Russia. The last thing she wants is an expanded war in the Middle East. Russia has recently signed several agreements to bolster Iranians defenses both air defenses and cyber defenses. Lavrov said that the construction of new units of the Bushehr nuclear power plant was discussed during his recent meeting with his Iranian counterpart. He also said "Russia hopes that the United States will return to the JCPOA and that this will be a condition for Iran to implement the JCPOA" and that "Moscow will continue its efforts to ensure that Iran and the United States fully comply with their obligations to the JCPOA in the near future." Russia’s demonstrated expertise in radio-electronic combat should make Israel think twice about a first strike. Not only would this expertise bolster Iran’s defenses, but Russia could hamper Israel’s strike capabilities from her bases in Syria and her ships in the Mediterranean. Russia would not sit this one out.
In my opinion, an Israeli strike on Iran is not imminent. Nor is it in the cards in at least the next several years. Israel has to be sure of a convincing victory. A draw would further damage Israel’s aura of invincibility. Without that, Israel’s best and brightest will fly away leaving nothing but Talmudic scholars and angry Palestinians to hash things out. There will be conflict as well as more big talk and selling of wolf tickets like I posted at the top of this article. The political maneuvering will continue. Military capabilities will continue to be developed. The intelligence conflict will continue. The cyber conflict will continue. All this will continue until something breaks… one way or the other.
TTG
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/29/644100/Israeli-figures-slam-Kochavi-empty-rhetoric
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/01/28/644011/Iran-Israel-threat-Dehqan-Shekarchi
While trying to see the situation and playing with maps, I see a country the size and population of the US state of New Jersey (Israel) wanting to fly at least to Illinois (Iran) in distance and back, except they have to fly through Jordan, Saudi and maybe Iraq airspace.
Maybe the Israelis can make a press release that they did it and everyone will be happy.
Posted by: SAC Brat | 01 February 2021 at 08:01 PM
"Even though the UAE has pulled out of the conflict..."
The Emiratis may have stopped airstrikes on the Houthis, but in spite of that they maintain their proxies, the Southern Movement and the STC, within Yemen and still fighting.
Plus MbZ still has Emirati troops occupying Yemen's Socotra Island. There are claims that the UAE and Israel have built a joint Intel/Surveillance Base on Socotra. That Israeli-Emirati spy base is most likely aimed at watching Iranian activity in the Gulf of Aden and trying to constrain IRGC relationship with the Houthi.
Agree with your opinion that a major strike on Iran is not imminent. But IMO the IDF will continue to monkey around with hitting Iranians in Syria or elsewhere. Maybe even nibbling at the fringes of Iran.
Posted by: Leith | 01 February 2021 at 08:26 PM
"[Kovachi] warned the Biden administration against rejoining the 2015 landmark Iran nuclear deal, which was abandoned by the Trump administration in May 2018, saying such a move 'would be bad and not the right thing to do'."
Bad for whom?
Israel has demonstrated it can make nice with Saudi head choppers closer to their border. They can live with Iran.
And if they can't live with Iran they can make war on their own.
Posted by: Lesly | 01 February 2021 at 08:33 PM
"It was an Obama agreement. Of course Trump would scuttle that. "
You mean it was not a treaty? Why didn't Obama submit it to the Senate to be ratified and thus binding on future administrations ? You left those parts out.
"And then there is Russia. The last thing she wants is an expanded war in the Middle East. Russia has recently signed several agreements to bolster Iranians defenses both air defenses and cyber defenses."
Gas prices are up more than ten percent already due to Dementia Joe's Green New Dealings, which are going to gut our energy indepence from the Middle East. Russia is not the only country that is going to see revenue from oil and gas sales go up. A war is going to make those prices skyrocket faster than shares in Game Stop.
Two weeks, that's all it has taken for some general in the armed forces of our "noble ally" to make demands upon the United States, and further to suggest a war against Iran be waged by us on their behalf. How kind. Has anyone on the general's staff watched American news recently? We are reliably informed by the usual news suspects that the greatest threat to the United States are white male citizens; and our own armed forces are busy conducting loyalty tests. When they aren't explaining to the troops how many genders there are now and conducting other Diversity, Inclusion Equity training.
When he was in office all we had to worry about was being wounded by mean tweets and wondering which defense contractor would miss their earnings because Trump hadn't started a war anywhere. It really makes ya miss The Donald, doesn't it?
Posted by: Fred | 01 February 2021 at 08:34 PM
SAC Brat,
The whole premise does seem absurd, doesn't it? That's why I thought Amos Gilad's response was perfect.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 01 February 2021 at 08:54 PM
Lesly,
Bad for the Likudniks sense of superiority, obviously. I'd be all for letting them swing in the breeze if they actually did attack Iran. The only problem is the Israeli nukes. I think that's the primary concern of US policy makers as well. I have little faith the Israelis would refrain from launching them if they were left to get a bloody nose. That's their ultimate trump card.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 01 February 2021 at 09:02 PM
Fred,
Do you really think McConnell would have let an Obama treaty pass? He wouldn't even bring his SC nominee up for a vote.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 01 February 2021 at 09:11 PM
I am concerned for the sake of Israel. Just as I believe Trump is a part of the plan to reduce the US to fourth world status, I am also concerned that Israel is being set up, too. The United states and its potential empire could dominate the planet, but only the relationship with Israel seems to hold it back. I'm concerned that the US might green light an attack on Iran, while understanding that the result will be the complete annihilation of Israel.
Posted by: coboarts | 01 February 2021 at 10:03 PM
coboarts,
Trump was/is not a part of any plan to reduce the US to fourth world status, or any other status. He wanted the US to succeed and he wanted to be loved by all. He had no plan beyond that. Nor is Israel being set up. Whatever Israel brings on herself is her fault alone.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 01 February 2021 at 11:02 PM
TTG, SST;
Another flash point might be the kurdish proxies of Israel and their "control" of Syrian oil. The recently announced serial by Les Belles Clinton about the female kurds of Ayn al-ʿArab might indicate yet another media operation against Syria and Assad. For what end?
Ishmael Zechariah
Posted by: Ishmael Zechariah | 01 February 2021 at 11:35 PM
thanks ttg...too bad about all these dogs sleeping with fleas... no wonder they don't get any sleep....
Posted by: james | 01 February 2021 at 11:40 PM
coboarts, An advocate for US continuing enmity with Russia spoke to the C Span audience the other day. Her parents fled Communist Russia.
I wonder why she is in USA hectoring Americans about the need to punish Russia. If she (and presumably her parents) is so concerned about the situation in her "motherland," shouldn't they return to Russia and put their energies to reforming that country?
Same with Israelophiles: those who are "concerned for Israel" should take their concerns to Israel; it is not the job or duty or responsibility of the American people to nurture overgrown child Israel. "Concern for Israel would best take the form of demanding that Israel trim its sails and learn to get along in the neighborhood it invaded.
Posted by: Artemesia | 01 February 2021 at 11:44 PM
Lets assume Israel launches an attack. Let's assume the Gulf dictatorships offer non-kinetik support. Let's assume the Iranian+Hezbollah missile counterstrike is much worse than assumed with efficient Hezbollah suppression of AD systems, volley fire, precision missiles and all that. Assume Bibi's house is flattened, the Knesset, Dimona, Haifa harbor: all in ruins.
What then? If the US cannot be convinced to start beating up Iran will Israel go nuclear - and what then? What will happen with the arab street? Which way Sunni man? Will the house of Saud stand? What about all other Sunni-led and majority Sunni arab countries - what will happen?
Posted by: FkDahl | 02 February 2021 at 01:05 AM
I suspect that the reason for all this Israeli saber-rattling has very little to do with Iran and a lot more to do with spooking a new US Administration.
Plus, of course, Kochavi is looking for a much-expanded budget for the IDF, and he isn't going to get it from Netanyahu: bank notes go into Bibi's pocket, not out of it.
So a bit of saber-rattling to spoke the Americans, then a surly and ungrateful "OK, if you're going to throw money at me then maybe I'll calm down. For a while".
Posted by: Yeah, Right | 02 February 2021 at 06:15 AM
Fred
To rise in gas prices is surely more to do with it being a particularly cold winter in both the US and Europe than Biden's Green Deal. In the longer term perhaps but unlikely at this time of year.
Gazprom for example have just announced that sales to Europe are up 11% on last year and I bet gas consumption is up in NE US at the moment.
Food prices are also on the rise.
Posted by: JohninMK | 02 February 2021 at 07:12 AM
Colonel, that was a really interesting analysis. Having just finished reading your memoir, I can see the background of knowledge from which it sprang. Those who had the opportunity to read your work 30 years ago must have really enjoyed ready it, even if the content upset them.
Would the big difference in your book between the depth of coverage between your time in Vietnam/US and the ME be in part to the sensitivity, even 30 years later, of relationships in the later?
To those of you here who have not yet purchased Tattoo, could I respectfully take this opportunity to suggest that you do. The Colonel has a very good way with prose, as you will have seen in his Civil War extracts, that makes it very easy and at times gripping reading. The way it starts is a surprise and educational in totally unexpected areas.
Well worth the effort you put into it and our wait to read it.
Posted by: JohninMK | 02 February 2021 at 07:28 AM
TTG,
Obama, knowing he would not recieve the consent of the Senate, not just the Senate Majority leader, chose not to submit this agreement for a vote. As he famously said: "elections have consequences". Stolen ones even more so, as those of us who watch rule by executive decree expand the authoritarian state observe daily.
Posted by: Fred | 02 February 2021 at 07:52 AM
IZ -
Your Turkish media keeps lying about Kurds as being Israeli pawns. However it was the PKK that fought the IDF alongside their Palestinian allies during the Lebanon war. And it was Israeli drones that helped Erdodog track down PKK elements in the mountains before Turkish industry built their own knockoff drones.
Lately Israeli Harop suicide drones were used by Erdodog's buddies in Baku against the Armenians who are strongly pro-Kurdish. Many of the ethnic Kurds in Armenia fought alongside Armenians against Azeris during the Nagorno-Karabakh wars.
Posted by: mike a | 02 February 2021 at 10:04 AM
JohninMK,
The change to winter fuel mix gasoline blends in North America happens in late fall, not January.
Posted by: Fred | 02 February 2021 at 10:18 AM
Great analysis of ME geopolitics as always!
Allow me to point out to certain important issues absent from your analysis:
*The "Abrahamic Accords" between Israel and Arab dictatorships, which could be pushed into adding human rights and civil society issues (of course on top of military/political stabilization and economic development as the two main component of the Accords) that the Biden admin and the EUs' policymakers always seek as the long-term framework of pacification in the MENA region. This IMO has very strong Iran "aspect" to it that need to be taken into consideration. In short, the Abrahamic Accords are very "Straussian" in nature, if you know what I mean!
*Geopolitics of oil/energy and also the prospect of the further development of the Belt and Road initiative in MENA that interestingly includes both Iran and Israel as two major hubs; the former serving as a node to Central Asia and European markets and the latter as a node on the Mediterranean and Southern Europe markets.
*The further strengthening of the Shiite "Axis of Resistance" from Afghanistan (Fatemiyun), and Pakistan (Zeynabiyun), to Hezbollah in the Western MENA which is conceived to be countered (from Israeili POV) by the Gulf sheikdoms (as forward operating bases). This is a clear state vs. non-state actor balance of power initiative directed against Iran by Israel. I tend to believe that the Axis is more battle-hardened and powerful than one might imagine, so the state-actors will going to have a hard time in this front.
Posted by: Polish Janitor | 02 February 2021 at 10:50 AM
Even if the Democrats had a majority in the Senate, I hold doubts JCPOA would have passed. Many members of the Senate on both sides of the aisle are beholden to Israeli interests. It was easier for Obama to take that step on his own and allow members of his own party to save face.
Posted by: fakebot | 02 February 2021 at 11:50 AM
Just an Iranian PR false flag ploy to keep Trump-Kushner from getting the Nobel Peace Prize for their extraordinary Abraham Accords. (Ha!) OrangeManStill Bad.
Posted by: Deap | 02 February 2021 at 12:44 PM
Fred, the wonders of our shared language. Your gas is our petrol. Hence the confusion. With our mild climate petrol is the same all year, only vehicle diesel changes with the seasons. Our gas is a gas.
Posted by: JohninMK | 02 February 2021 at 02:35 PM
Slightly off topic. Is the Iron Dome installation in Eilat meant to protect Eilat or cities farther north? Is the Houthi threat really the first viable one to that part of Israel? Thanks; great thread.
Posted by: wtofd | 02 February 2021 at 02:43 PM
Deap,
So, you think I'm working for Tehran? In cahoots with the Persians? Maybe I'm working for the IRGC or the 65th NOHED Brigade. What do the voices in your head tell you?
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 02 February 2021 at 03:35 PM