« " ... MSNBC host suggested electors abandon POTUS-elect." Foxnews | Main | Grilled pork chops »

29 November 2020

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

BillWade

Well, there is a bright side in South West Florida, real estate prices are jumping up, keep those lock downs going folks! Also here, I'm noticing more and more people are foregoing mask wearing while shopping. One restaurant owner I know lets his employees going mask less, he's not hurting, his business is good.

Free State of Florida!

Ken Roberts

Larry, thanks for posting that detail re Covid stats. I appreciate your posts in general and in particular am fond of data-based discussion of Covid. I will not question what you are seeing locally. In my own situation, in Ontario Canada, I am close enough to the public pulse to have some idea what is going on with data collection and publication. As a result I am generally confident with the epidemiological data which is published (daily and weekly epi-reports) by Public Health Ontario, an aggregation of the 34-ish regional public health units in the province. The details are at the following URL, via the links to the daily report, and to the archive of past weekly summaries:

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/data-and-analysis/infectious-disease/covid-19-data-surveillance

I will not discuss that data here. Rather I will share a little analysis I did this morning that produced what was for me a surprising insight. Here is the punch line: For Ontario, the risk of dying from Covid is about 10x the risk of dying from a traffic accident.

Summary of the analysis: Assume 5-year horizon, as Covid moves through the population, with about 80 percent of the pop being infected at some point, perhaps multiple times as Covid becomes "common" (as in "common cold"). The early mortality will diminish as the disease weakens and the most susceptible will die off. About half of deaths it will be reasonable to attribute to some other cause, about half will be earlier than in a hypothetical non-Covid environment. The attribution is at the propensities of the recording people -- so be it. Not a productive argument in my view.

Bottom line: For Ontario, I expect about 50 deaths per year per 100k population, averaged over the five years 2020-2024. Less if/when we have an effective vaccination, treatment methods continue to improve, etc.

For comparison, death rate for traffic related fatalities in Ontario is about 5 per year per 100k population. So Covid is a serious public health concern -- about 10x as much risk to the public as the automobile.

Best wishes, and thanks again for your numerous articles,
kr.

rick

So, since it didn't disappear after election day, is it going to disappear after the inauguration?

Bill H

Teh there's the, "We don't know how long immunity lasts," after having been infected by coronavirus and recovering.
That's because some idiot said on NPR that Covid-19 antibodies were seen to diminish in the bloodstream of survivors after a few months.

Well, yes, that would come as no surprise. Antibodies do not prevent illness, they kill a virus that is in your system. Once the virus is killed the antibodies wash out of your body, because the body never keeps anything it no longer needs. What's important is that the immune system still knows how to make them and there is no reason to think that it forgets how to make Covid-19 antibodies any more than it forgets how to make Polio antibodies or Samllpox antibodies.

Immunity does not consist of having antibodies in you blood. It consists of your immune system knowing how to make antibodies so that it recognizes the virus and kills it rapidly before it can make you sick. I learned that in high school, and I am neither a doctor or a science editor.

The "following science" of not knowing how long immunity lasts (and that you must wear a mask even if you have had Covid and recovered) is one more of the media lies. There is no reason to suspect that immunity from Covid lasts any shorter time than does immunity from Polio or Smallpox.

Fred

Larry,

"The stench of hypocrisy covers America like a blanket of rotting garbage. "

According to Fake News Central, the NYT, and their favorite fake Repubican, David Brooks (epistemic multi-millionaire NYC knowledge expert, see Iraq has WMD and They'll great us as liberators as examples of epistemic expertise of the elites), the problem is rotting of the Republican mind.

You see, quoting David the Great: "Over the past decades the information age has created a lot more people who make their living working with ideas, who are professional members of this epistemic process. The information economy has increasingly rewarded them with money and status. It has increasingly concentrated them in ever more prosperous metro areas."

And boy do those elite status knowledge workers (not to be confused with the tens of thousands of knowledge workers replaced by H1B visa holders or those whose jobs were off-shored) know what is best for us. Starting with obedience and submission. Or to quote the expert:

"The only solution is to reduce the distrust and anxiety that is the seedbed of this thinking. That can only be done first by contact, reducing the social chasm between the members of the epistemic regime and those who feel so alienated from it. And second, it can be done by policy, by making life more secure for those without a college degree."

Ain't that grand, the multi-millionaire experts are going to leave their bastions of elite superiority for 'contact' with the deplorables! Oh, and they will issue more policy decrees, and life will be 'more secure'. I for one am looking forward to the policies that epistemic elites wish to impose, without having to follow. Like all the ones from the beginning of the propagandemic.

akaPatience

I'm sure I won't be the only person to comment about the Johns Hopkins University scientist's study that was taken down from its newsletter's website because the data showed that COVID deaths have been greatly overstated. The study revealed that usual causes of death have been understated since the outbreak of COVID while the amount of difference from the past just happens to roughly add up to the number of deaths being attributed to COVID:

“These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.”

Here's an article that provides a link to the archived JHU study:

https://www.aier.org/article/new-study-highlights-serious-accounting-error-regarding-covid-deaths/

Eric Newhill

Larry,
This John Hopkins article gets at the truth of the "pandemic" as I know it to be. Shortly after it was published, it was taken down; something about it possibly leading people to come to dangerous conclusions about covid. It can be found here on the way back web.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19">https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19">https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

You don't see hospitals overwhelmed because the "covid" admissions are really, for the most part, the same admissions you'd see anyhow. They are just slapping the covid diagnosis on patients with other conditions. Also, many normal admissions are down because people are scared to get the care they need and/or have not been diagnosed and referred because their physician's office is closed.

There is some validity to the excessively high utilization of beds and vents back in the Spring in places like NYC. However, bad flu years have produced similar admission levels. However, in bad flu years vents get used less aggressively. This is from Governors Cuomo, Murphy and Whitmer deliberately infecting the poor souls in nursing homes.

The CDC site speaks to excessive deaths on one page dedicated to that specific info. On that page they state there an excess deaths that correlate closely with covid deaths as reported by the media. There is some funny manipulation of the data that can be read in the notes section below their graph. One weirdness is that they removed from their calculation weeks in 2020 that had the same or less deaths than previous years. Elsewhere on the CDC site you can get unmanipulated data and the excess death count does not emerge. From where I'm sitting, 2020 is on track to have a total death count that is in line with 2010 in terms of deaths per 100K and within statistical bounds for more recent years.

Eric Newhill

Use this link for the John Hopkins study

https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19">https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19">https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

Deap

Sample letter to the editor from the Left Coast, just this week:

• • •.........Now that our long national nightmare is almost over, YYYY should re-examine its support for President Donald Trump and other right-wing, “Christian” causes.

Case in point is the decision to publish XXXX Nov. 20 letter to the editor making fun of mask wearing.

More than 255,000 people are dead because of Trump and other science-deniers like XXXX, but YYYY continues to provide them with a platform to spread their lies. Stop it! We will remember what you’ve done.

Now Gov. Gavin Newsom has been forced to put California back into a modified stay-at-home status. Thanks, YYYY

(Signed)

Rick Merlotti

Small sample size, admittedly. I’m in SE Florida and I know of only 2 people who have had COVID. A doctor in his 30’s and his wife. They are fine now. Nobody in my family, friends or neighborhood has gotten it. Nobody in my wife’s circle of friends, which is much larger than mine. BTW, she is totally paranoid over it. She wipes down the groceries for god’s sake. Freaks out about non-mask wearers. She drinks deep the propaganda, which is pervasive. There is no reasoning with her, so I just nod my head and say “Yes Dear”.

AK

My wife is there visiting family in Ocala. She says it's a completely different world than out here in Communist-run, drug-addled, utopian Oregon. The fear is pervasive here everywhere one goes. To these people, there is virtue in being afraid.

Kassandra

This is a push back to dark Middle Ages - the PLAGUE is raging, OBEY, OBEY!
The KING will come and save his followers, the HERETICS will be damned, the INQUISITION will mark them for their fate.
Await the BLESSING of your savior, the allmighty SYRINGE!

TV

The media are Democrat operatives with press badges.
Most of the lockdown "wear a mask and shut up" tyranny is in Democrat and a few RINO-run places.
The media's sole purpose in life is to advance a Democrat agenda, whatever that is, and the more anti-American, the better.
Right now that agenda is heavily in the direction of disabling the Constitution and destroying as much of the economy as they can.
Give them credit.
They knew that they could con the electorate with the usual fact-free "feelings" BS and they did.
"Facts?
"We don't need no stinking facts."

Laura Wilson

You can "believe" whatever you want...I guess you "believe" that all the doctors, nurses and hospital administrators are lying. Such a grand conspiracy...and to what end??? To keep you alive!

Horrible, horrible people who hate America!

j. casey

So, were is the "war room" for the media fear campaign housed? Who runs it? One of the top WHO types said in no uncertain terms that Lockdowns should not be used for anything but temporary relief on ICU overcrowding. And yet we still have them. Mask are worse than useless at virus containment and they spread bacterial upper respiratory infection. CDC recommendations say masks should only be worn by people who are infected. And yet the Little Red Guards are out there pushing more masks. Where is this op being run from?

Deap

Remember back when the first we heard about "covid" was when people started mindlessly hoarding toilet paper in January 2020?

They didn't even know why they were doing it. They just saw other people do it and it quickly became a free-for all. That was our very first introduction to "covid" porn.

The importance of this initial and unfounded hysteria chapter should not be overlooked. America was ripe for the picking. I also remember President Trump trying to cool these anxieties about supply chains in the US.

Forget learning more about the "disease". We need to learn more about the early propaganda - who most benefited from this "public health" scare.

wtofd

Larry, thanks for this. I have been impressed with many commentators on this site who have urged the economy to re-open and schools to stay open. Clearly there are long-term mental health issues that were underestimated at the beginning when the country and the states were developing their lock-down responses.
I also agree the leftist media has been too quick to sound an alarm of terror. My friends and I joke that we wouldn't know the world was ending unless we read the NYT.
Still, I take issue with your blanket statement that masks are ineffective. No. Lax max wearing is ineffective. But proper mask wearing protects people from inhaling the droplets that transmit the virus. And masks are helpful along with the swiss cheese approach of social distancing, limited time of personal contact, ventilation/outdoor activity, etc.
What's troubled me most about the country and this site in the last year is the knee jerk lurch to polarization and false dilemmas. Either/or nonsense that fails to include multiple sources of information or slanders the other side for not conforming. The truth often lies somewhere in the middle. Here in rural Idaho, in Blaine County, we are masked and open for business, while the cases spike in surrounding counties and they have to divert their patients to Boise because their local hospitals are stuffed. We laugh when people in Twin or across the conservative nation belittle us for masking, just as we roll our eyes when the liberal nation shrieks that our business and schools are open. We are not sheep; we are proud capitalists who are taking the easiest of precautions to keep the economy rolling.

Diana L Croissant

I came back from church today. We have a Large sanctuary; but we also have a large congregation. And our membership is growing. We do NOT wear masks in church. I wonder if that might be a reason for our congregation's growth while many of the long-time churches in our community have not held services for a long time. One prominent church has finally decided to close down.

The lead story in our paper today is about a family whose matriarch died in an Arizona hospital of COVID since it was the closest hospital which could treat COVID plus her underlying lung problems. So, the question in my mind is whether the lung condition or the COVID infection is the primary cause of her death.

Yet, the rant from her daughter, who was the only member who could be in the hospital with her and who had to be there alone when her mother died, seemed to blame us all in our town--especially since our county commissioners had refused to follow the mandate of our far-left Governor from Boulder that would have required us to go back basically to the very first restrictions that were set at the beginning of the pandemic.

I do wear a mask in places where I just don't want the annoyance of being considered selfish. I know I don't have COVID; so, to me the mask is unnecessary. I just don't like confrontations.

Most of our restaurants have made seating adjustments and their servers are wearing masks (has to be a terrible annoyance to them); but our restaurants are thriving. As are most of our businesses.

In my opinion, losing one's livelihood and wondering how you could ever recover financially is as sad as coming down with the virus, maybe sadder.

There ARE vaccines now available. I've called to be put on a schedule at my healthcare provider's office. But, I am waiting first to have a talk first with my doctor before I take the vaccine. The last time I took a flu vaccine (since I had to as a public school teacher at the time) was the only time I called in sick for work, since I immediately came down with the flu after taking the vaccine.

It's all a matter of making personal choices, if you ask me. Each person should be aware enough of his/her own health and his/her own situations. Each person should have the right to make decisions of what risks he or she wants to take. I may chose finally not to take a vaccine because I have had too many experiences in which I got what I was trying to avoid by taking a vaccine to avoid the condition.

I resented that young woman's rant against all her fellow citizens of this town, though I understand how very hard it is to lose a mother.

I don't feel I need the vaccine really; but, I would like to be able to say I've had it so as not to incur the wrath of those who live in fear and with whom I must interact. But first, the conversation with my doctor....

Mark

https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid19-pcr-tests-scientifically-meaningless/5717253

BillWade

If any New Yorkers are reading the Colonel's blog and are planning to relocate to Florida, will you please cart down the Statue of Liberty with you, it's certainly not needed in NY. TIA

The Free State of Florida

Artemesia

@ wtofd:

"Here in rural Idaho, in Blaine County, we are masked and open for business, while the cases spike in surrounding counties and they have to divert their patients to Boise because their local hospitals are stuffed. We laugh when people in Twin or across the conservative nation belittle us for masking."

Am I correct that you are asserting that wearing masks is what preserved your locale from the "spike in cases" that afflicted non-maskers?

I am not a scientist; it's been awhile since I was taught 'science' (chemistry, for example) and, as stated earlier, at that time I was more interested in cars.

Khan Academy teaches science to our young people, and I sit quietly in the back of the classroom and take notes.
Here's Khan's teaching on the Scientific Method:
https://tinyurl.com/y9ofxcfx

Summary:
1. Observe
2. Ask questions
3. Try to create an explanation that is testable
** this is core to scientific method; it is called a Hypothesis
4. State the hypothesis (need not be true: point is, it will be tested for its coincidence with reality; but untestable hypotheses should be rejected)
5. Make a prediction --> Design an experiment
5a. Run the experiment
5b. Isolate variables and control for any other possible explanations: for example, conduct exactly the same experiment at least two times, using different conditions to control for verification of the hypothesized condition
6. Make a prediction about what will happen in each of the varied conditions, relative to each other

etc.
etc.
etc.

Did the people in your mask-wearing, gloating county control for variables? Did they identify variables? Does the non-mask-wearing hospitalized region have more old people? Are they less healthy overall, i.e. more likely to eat junk food, more obese,* [it would be interesting to correlate presence of Dollar Stores, Dunkin Donuts; prevalence of cigarette smoking & opiod use :: with incidences of obesity, diabetes & COPD :: with incidences of Covid DEATHS -- not positive tests -- they are notoriously inaccurate] more unemployed, live in predominantly urban or crowded circumstances, take less exercise, etc.?

Were any of these questions asked about the **infected** non-mask-wearers, or did the sidewalk scientists go straight to confirmation bias + correlation=causation?

If in doubt, ask a high school kid, preferably one who is being home-schooled.

Deap

The Democrat elite's mind warp is starting with their embrace of the American flag, nos that it no longer means a flag-flyer is a white supremacist racist, bigot, homophobe and science denier. I am touched. https://redstate.com/jeffc/2020/11/29/democrats-have-a-change-of-heart-on-the-american-flag-you-already-know-why-n286606

I suspect however, I will now need to display it upside down. Nation in distress. Or should I assume the neo-flag waver now supports what I have long believed the flag to mean.

akaPatience

Imagine the pressure that likely comes to bear on authoritative voices to STFU about data-driven science like that revealed in the Johns Hopkins study. Think of all of the policy makers who may fear political and maybe even personal liability for imposing draconian measures that've destroyed billions of dollars in wealth and caused untold misery if information that challenges the COVID orthodoxy were widely disseminated. This is what I suspect happened to JHU when word of the findings of its study got around. The Ministry of Truthers simply cannot allow such heresy. Nein!!! Nie!!!

Fred

Laura Wilson,

"I guess you "believe" that all the doctors, nurses and hospital administrators are lying."

Yet all doctors are not saying what the left is saying. Plenty of doctors are saying this is nothing more than a bad flu season. They don't get air time.

Remember, "stay home, stay safe". Unless there's a protest somewhere or you need something from a multi-national big-box store that is definitely not 'non-essential'. Unlike socializing in a bar or getting a haircut.

Deap

No we know how Galileo felt 400 years ago, when he took on prevailing political/cultural/religious orthodoxy. With science.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

February 2021

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28            
Blog powered by Typepad