IMO Iran will wait for Biden

A journo friend called yesterday to ask my opinion about the course of near term events regarding Iran.

The murder of a senior Iranian scientist at the weekend may have been done by Israel or the United States or both in cooperation.  He may or may not have been the "father" of an actual Iranian MILITARY nuclear program as opposed to a CIVILIAN electric power focused program.

In the 2007 NIE on Iran the USIC would not commit publicly to the existence of such a military program and they never have since.  The theory of the case then was that Khamenei ordered an end to an experimental military program after the occupation of Iraq by the US and the destruction of the Iraqi government.  Khamenei published a fatwa stating that such a program was an evil thing and was no longer needed as a deterrent against Iraq.  

The subsequent US/Israeli focus on a putative Iranian nuclear weapons program was IMO an artifact of the Israeli/Cheney/Ziocon fascination with their 1% theory of strategy.  Stated simply, this is the concept that if anything can possibly threaten you, even at a  1% level of probability, then you should seek to crush it.

On that basis the Israelis have long wanted Iran crushed.  They have lacked the means to do it themselves unless they want to use the nuclear weapons they pretend not to have.  They evidently do not want to do that and so their long yearned for solution is that the stupid but strong Americans do it for them with perhaps a minor supporting role for themselves just so that they can claim afterward that they did all the hard bits.

In that context the death of the Iranian savant is easy to see as a provocation intended to bring on an Iranian attack which could be used to goad Trump into a grand finale effort against Iran.

The USS Nimitz Battle Group is in the area with all its wondrous  planes and missile shooting ships.  The US has been moving JDAM shooting B-52s into the region for a week.  Things like the B-2 bomber and B-1B are on call from far away.  Someone has been setting the stage for ...?  Who knows?  I doubt that it is Trump.  He has shown himself to be long on talk, and short on actual shooting.

Are the Iranians dumb enough to take the bait?  I doubt it.  All they have to do is wait for Joe, Blinken et al to take over and they are likely to get something very like JCPOA.  pl 

Comments

[Leith]

"even the cardinal here is Jewish."

In the 1950s, Fred Trump, Donnie's father, donated a plot of land to the Beach Haven Jewish Center in Brooklyn. He also contributed generously towards its construction. He affectionately referred to Rabbi Yisroel Wagner, who approached the elder Trump for help, as "My Rabbi."

A Converso perhaps?

[Norbert M Salamon]

It is well worth remembering two items:
Mr. Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, stated that Iran is an ally of Russia [In Jerusalem??]
2., Attack on an ally is the same as attack on Russia, President Putin.
Advisory for cooler heads regarding Iran.

[Leith]

j. casey - "Does IRGC have super or hypersonic anti-shipping missiles?"

None known. But there is speculation they have access to details of China's Chaoxun-1 that can reach speeds of Mach 3.

[JohninMK]

J, from chatter on social media there is apparently no IRGC commander with the name Muslim Shahdan in the November personnel lists. Assuming that is correct the event is a bit of a puzzle.

[ISL]

Ishmael Zechariah,

I would expect Iran would have some degree of advance warning - it is reasonable to assume (per several indicators) that Russia would know of such a decision shortly after it was made - it is in Russian interests (should the US decide to fight a war for the benefit of Israel) to see Iran maximize damage on SA oil production, ME assets, and that pesky tiny statelet with inviting nuclear power plants targets.

[J]

JohninMK,

Iran's FM is now denying the story. Al-arabiya, RT, and Haaretz were running the story. Could be the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. Iran appears a wee bit embarrassed that their IRGC leadership types as well as their civilian weapons personnel are so vulnerable, and they can't seem to protect them. The blowback to all of it is what I'm worried about.

Iran has created a pickle for themselves taking the 'high priced' CCP's 'easy money '.

[fakebot]

Pat Buchanan wrote a column recently on the subject:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/has-bibi-boxed-biden-in-on-iran/

[Paul]

I've always thought that the Israelis (well Zion generally) want de-facto control of the whole US Military for their own purposes, which is why Jews work so hard to subvert and control America and its Institutions the way they pretend not to.

[Leith]

5th Fleet Commander Admiral Sam Paparo on Iran naval activity, he is quoted by AP as saying:

“We have achieved an uneasy deterrence. That uneasy deterrence is exacerbated by world events and by events along the way. But I have found Iranian activity at sea to be cautious and circumspect and respectful, to not risk unnecessary miscalculation or escalation at sea.”

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/06122020

IMHO it is good to see that the situation there is being toned down. Let's hope Tehran sees it the same way.