Maybe, just maybe ...

"The 2020 presidential race may be closer than the polls suggest, according to an analysis of voter registration trends by JPMorgan Chase.

Changes in the number of voters registered to each of the major parties have proven to be a significant variable in election outcomes in the past, according to strategists at the New York-based bank, which analyzed trends in some of the battleground states that will be crucial to an electoral college victory.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 9.2 points nationally, according to an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, but his lead is at a tighter 4.9 points in hotly contested states."

"In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.

JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election."

"Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well."

"JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.

While voter registration is encouraging for Trump and the GOP, it is “only one variable in determining the election outcome,” the JPMorgan team wrote, noting that the results should not be used to predict a state’s outcome."

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Pilgrims!  Perhaps I should not despair for my country just yet. The Demo/Marxistas say that the long lines of early voters are all theirs. Well, "we will see."  pl

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/voter-registration-trends-trump-edge-jpmorgan

Comments

[turcopolier]

All

My guess would be that someone he had spent the night with sent him the picture electronically and the drug addled idiot never noticed that it was on his old laptop.

[TV]

This apple fell right under the tree.
The Bidens bring new meaning to "stupid."

[Eric Newhill]

I decided as of yesterday that Trump is going to win handily. I came to this conclusion prior to the release of the strange story about Hunter's computer and the emails. IMO, that story will have minimal effect. I don't think the typical lefty/democrat has even heard about it or would care if they did.

Slow week at work, looking at the polls' methodology. As in 2016, way over-sampling Democrats and the polls are struggling to obtain their target sample size, which tells me that the few people actually picking up the phone and answering the questions are unique/not representative.

Furthermore, I see no enthusiasm for Biden/Harris. None. It is easy to tell someone on the phone that you will vote for Biden. It's a whole other matter to actually go stand in line to vote or take the time to order a mail-in ballot, fill it out and return mail it when you really just don't care. Trump, on the other hand, has a huge fan base and they are fired up. Voting against "Bad Orange Bogie Man" is not the same as voting for someone who is preserving the country and making your life better. People know that Trump's faults pale in comparison to what the democrats are offering; socialism, defunded police, censorship, wealth confiscation and rule by technocracy and elitism. For conservatives this election is truly existential. They will vote for their very lives. IMO, Democrats don't really believe their expressed fears.

Furthermore, the majority of people report that 1) they are better off than they were four years ago and 2) that they approve of the job Trump is doing (barely a majority, but a majority nonetheless).

Add to that the newly registered Republicans.

I do not think the democrats have the machinery in place to cheat with mail-in ballots in sufficient volumes, without being caught, to overcome Trump's margins. Trump will have more votes at the end of Nov 3 because vastly more democrats are playing at being scared of covid and will mail-in ballots. Over the next two weeks mail-in ballots will be counted and there will be some whittling down of Trump's lead. Some states he was ahead in on election night will fall to Biden, but Trump will be the electoral winner once the dust settles, fur stops flying and all the lawyers cease their threats and close out their cases.

[walrus]

I’ll go further and suggest President Trump will increase his majority. The people aren’t complete fools.

[BillWade]

I suspect there's an awful lot of bad stuff on that laptop, we've only seen a teeny bit so far according to Guiliani.

[Fred]

Eric,

"I see no enthusiasm for Biden/Harris." I see it in the increasing numbers who drive while wearing masks in a state reopened months ago.

"I do not think the democrats have the machinery in place to cheat...."

The social media companies just tested their election day process with the Hunter story. They will declare Biden the winner and suppress all accounts saying otherwise. Look for the selective 'accidental' account lock downs to increase in the next two weeks in an ongoing voter suppression drive from the social media left.

[Eliot]

Col. Lang,

Have you seen the rally breakdowns? According to the Trump campaign they’re seeing large numbers of registered Democrats, twenty five percent or more, as well as unlikely voters, individuals who haven’t voted in several cycles.

- Eliot

[Rick Merlotti]

Eric Newhill

I’m Rick Merlotti and I approve your message.

[TV]

Eric:
Beware of "just found" cardboard boxes of Biden votes in closets and basements.
"It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes."
Walrus:
Unfortunately a significant number of people ARE complete fools.
Millions and millions of low information voters will cast low information votes based on fake news and emotions.
Watch out for the white, whiney, wine-drinking women.

[Horace]

Statistics is a powerful tool with which to try to understand reality when used properly and honestly, but estimation of the kind done in these polls is only valid if the samples are RANDOM. They are not. Good-faith use of alternate methodology can come close enough to provide useful results, but the door to fraud is wide open.

I have no doubt that they do take (far more extensive and hence more expensive) polls where their objective is to find the truth, but you will never see those released to the public. We deplorable dregs only rate the cheaper push polls telling us we should give up. It's not for nothing that Mark Twain is said to have exhorted "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!"

There is always error in estimates, but you expect estimate error to cluster around the 'true' value. When election after election has estimates that show Dems ahead then the race tightening then you know that there is systematic bias. This means that they are deliberately lying.

Why? There are two main reasons. First, Dem overestimates help build a preference cascade by convincing the other side that they are going to lose therefore should not bother to show up. Second, Dem poll overestimates provide margin for vote fraud. Does anyone think, even if the fraud is brazen, that Romney and the other Republican-flavored globalists won't hasten to the news media in company of leading Dems like Schumer in a 'bipartisan' effort to get Trump not to contest the fraud? Bipartisanship is just Republican-flavored globalists and Democrat-flavored globalists coming together to again rape the American people.

[james]

pat quote " Perhaps I should not despair for my country just yet. " i think it amounts to more then which party wins on nov 3rd myself.... it sure looks to me like the usa is an empire in fast decline... i don't think it matters who wins on nov 3rd.... maybe it matters in terms of how quickly the wheels continue to come off...

[Leith]

I don't believe the polls. Does anybody actually answer robocalls anymore? I have the NoMoRoBo app installed which automatically cuts of robotic calls or those dialed by computer. And any snail-mail from someone I do not know automatically goes in the trash.

You have to wonder who, if anyone, is responding to these polls.

[Per/Norway]

How did those polls work out for Fellonia Kackling Von Pantsuits in the 2016 election?
I do not think old joe bidet`s victory is so clearcut as those pollsters would want you Americans to think tbh.
Luckily i do not have any skin in that game since i live @ another continent, albeit a bidet win is more likely to drag us vassal states into a war🤔 So perhaps i have a few dandruft flakes in the game after all😏

[EEngineer]

I think the polling error is going to be epic. Conservative generally just want to be left alone to lead their own lives. The wokesters are like religious fanatics. Full of energy and out to proselytize.

Ask yourself this: Do you answer the phone from an unknown number. I haven't for years. Do you seek out online polls? A wokester will...

[Deap]

DH answers unknown phone calls ........with his duck call, blasting into the mouth piece. (Yes, we still use a land line phone)

I tell him that is just some poor underpaid flunkie trying to earn a few bucks doing cold calls, but pleasures are few during lockdown and this gives him some small sense of control. So yes, he still answers the phone, but does not say anything.

A duck call to duck a call - probably gets registered as a yes-Biden vote. Dirty bIrds of feather..... and all that.

[turcopolier]

james

If you are right, then I hope that our last dying action is to annex Canada. It would be so easy..

[Balint Somkuti, PhD]

European countries have seen similar uptick in voters dragging their feet to make themselves heard.

Based on the above I would go as far as to say due to the Marxist revolt by Antifa, BLM and others Trump and the republicans will win a landslide victory.

Voters recently disenfranchised from MSM and mainstream politics are shying away from acknowledging this fact.

Either this or a huge fraud in absantee ballots.

Not a normal election, no chance.

[Eric Newhill]

Fred,
Don't get me wrong. I'm sure the Ds will cheat and the media and tech companies will assist (as they already are). I'm just saying that none of them are prepared to do so at the level necessary to overcome the volume of pro-Trump votes that I expect. They have underestimated the margins that they must overcome to rig a Biden/Harris win.

Now, if you think they are going to simply declare Bidenharris the winner and silence any questioning or opposition to that declaration, then I hope you have been storing food and medical supplies and stacking magazines because that's what day it will be. I'm not so sure the technocrats are so stupid as to not understand that and to force that hand.

[roberto]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/trafalgar-group-chief-pollster-excellent-news-trump-battlegrounds-says-silent-trump-voter-twice-large-year-video/