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09 October 2020

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akaPatience

Colonel, if it's any consolation, you should be aware that the NBC/WSJ poll the MSM were all aflutter about last weekend was a junk poll. Whenever possible, I always check the methodology of a poll I'm interested in. Methodology is often unavailable however, and even when it is, it can be difficult to truly decipher the sampling breakdown by partisanship. I imagine this could be for proprietary reasons but also perhaps to obscure bias.

Anyway, the NBC/WSJ poll, which showed Biden ahead by 14% included 12% more Democrats/lean Democrat vs Republicans/lean Republican. It was also a sample of 800 registered, not likely voters. It has a margin of error of +-3.46%

Just 2 days earlier, IBD/TIPP (which enjoys a MUCH more successful track record) released a poll of 1221 registered voters (including 1021 likely voters), with Democrats a slightly larger percentage of the sample than Republicans. Biden came out ahead at 3%, with a margin of error of +-3.5% for the likely voters.

SO, take heart -- it seems to me the race is pretty much a dead heat at this point. If the perceived increase in black and Latino support for Trump is true, there's more reason to be optimistic. I'm a pessimist by nature, and my instinct is to count on and prepare for the worst. But I can't let my mind settle on the likelihood of a Biden victory. I've generally been a teatotaler in my adult years, yet one of the COVID hobbies I've taken up recently is mixology (my husband didn't like hearing me practice the recorder). Preparing cocktails may come in handy if I'm wrong. My favorite so far is G.B.S. (no, not George Bernard Shaw) - a Gin Basil Smash. Love the herbal taste and scent!!!

streetsofcandor

The black vote is being underestimated and that is the Democrat's lifeline. My wife of 18 years (who is black and has been a life-long Democrat because that's what she was "taught" to be growing up) finally had an epiphany with the deception/pandering of the BLM movement and also realizing she's been duped by a party that does nothing but push identity politics, socialism, and have done nothing for the black community other than insulting their intelligence. She has a large family and you'd be surprised how many of them are voting Republican for the first time - many of them female. Black conservatism is more prevalent than what the media wants you to think and we live in the Southern U.S.

Deap

A good and timely read: the anti-Trump " Operation Demoralize" is right on schedule. https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/10/shy_trump_voters_or_fed_up_trump_voters.html

In the past few days, lots of people have felt it - the relentless gloom and doom anti-Trump headlines belie the actual desperation Democrats are really feeling - case in point - using the 25th Amendment to get rid of someone instead of a duly scheduled election in a few more weeks.

Democrats willingness to pack the Supreme Court after they get Congress and the Whitehouse back after 2021, means even if Trump can appoint Barrett it is no skin on their noses - so why the rush to take Trump down with a 25th Amendment ruse?s

Deap

We are not "voting for Trump" this time; we are voting for four more years exposing and draining the swamp.

And four more years of conservative, non activist judicial appointments. And four more years building the border wall. And four more years of positive international re-alignments. And four more years of domestic economic repair. And four more years rebalancing ideological diversity in government service and academia.

And four more years to reach a coherent medical and social security program. And four more years to clean up mis-managed Democrat cities and states who are destroying their own residents in favor of Democrat self interests.

I did not vote for Trump in 2016. I hated Trump in 2016. But I have seen what he has accomplished, despite being the very strange public personality we have now all gotten to know and even grow weary listening too. Yet, we have only just begun to clean up the mess Democrats keep handing us. MAGA 2021.

Trump - promises made - promises kept. Trump has earned a second term.

Jaroslav Hašek

Colonel, All,
This may be of interest.....

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/poll-which-correctly-called-2016-election-sees-another-shocking-outcome-november

Tidewater

It was autumn in Cockaigne,
and we were weary.
After four years of a Bull of the Woods,
We chose the Quiet Man.
And we hoped there would be peace.
That first speech of the spring
on the situation at Big Rock Candy Mountain--
the riots and those burning empty box cars,
even the cigarette trees!
He nailed it, we thought.

But then we noticed after the first hopeful tele-gruppen,
Word was getting around, regardless.
Even old Skeebo wobbled. The tweet to Poteet. "But I don' see no phosphorous yet." Got him banned for real.

Too often he was giving those helping hands, which he sometimes resisted.
We didn't know how startling the white breasts of a Justice could be.
After that we didn't see him for a long time.
We became used to that.
But not to the words. Teleprompted, teleported,
Ghost written, of course,
For a man it slowly dawned on us
more broken than we can imagine men can be
And still be men and not ghosts.

Apologies to Henri Coulette. From "The War of the Secret Agents and other poems." (1968)

Ishmael Zechariah

Where is Tyler? I wonder what his prediction would be.
Ishmael Zechariah

The Saintlover

Sir,
I am a white, Christian, suburban woman (US Army Vet), in AZ and I can tell you, my family and I are voting for President Trump.

The MSM is gaslighting everyone. I refuse to entertain their psychological warfare on us. And YES, I believe this is psychological warfare.

I have my theories on why they are doing this, who they truly are and what lengths they will go to.

Thank you for your service to this Country

Sincerely,
The Saintlover

Bubba Schwartz

FWIW, here in OH we have had three canvassers for Trump at our door in the last month. The latest one (today) was a young black man. No Biden canvassers.

He has a significant ground game going nationwide. There is no enthusiasm for Biden.

Wife and I will both be voting for the Donald, as will our kids.

Bubba  Schwartz

BTW, the women’s vote is not monolithic. The further one gets from the cities here in OH, the more independent the thought becomes.

Agrarian folk take pride in their ability to form their own opinions. Life is a struggle for many out here; folks work hard to provide and they take pride in their independence.

Our county seat of 17000 has more churches than bars. We have some Amish and Mennonite in the county.

Add it all up and yes, our women-folk don’t much care for his personality, but approve of his policies.

He should carry Ohio again.

Bill H

Bill Wade
When I see indictments then I will believe that AG Barr is something more than an empty suit. He keeps talking the talk and promising to punish the lawbreakers, but my impression is that he is just another cog in the Washington machine that intends to drag it out until Biden wins, at which point the malefactors walk away scott free.

If Trump wins, which I fervently hope he does and which I think he might, Barr will have to find another way to bury the scandal, but bury it her will.

porkupine

@David
Try seeing the Trump administrations as the years that cracked the foundation of the pro-war (etc) Establishment whose disruption could result in pragmatic opportunities for reform.

Voting Green this election may not be a bad move.
Will Trump’s next four years really even strengthen the GOP? After Trump there will be a vacuum which the Greens would seem well-positioned to exploit, counting on a fractured DNC and also a split GOP.
“The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Perhaps in politics worthy of special consideration.

longarch

Sir:
There is ample evidence that President Trump is way ahead of former Obama Vice President Joe Biden.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/omg-no-one-showing-biden-harris-events-no-one-watching-online-biden-harris-3-president-trumps-online-viewership/

Many who support Trump speak of putting on the full armor of God:

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ephesians%206:10-18&version=NIV

"In addition to all this, take up the shield of faith, with which you can extinguish all the flaming arrows of the evil one."

God bless you, sir.

PRC90

Colonel, the assessment from my expert in women's opinions states that after Harris's debate performance she will be seen as untrustworthy by women.
Why ? As an everyday workplace co-worker, Harris would be seen as the type who would constantly crawl/wriggle to the boss, as a school social science teacher she would be anything other than objective, and as a neighbor she would be distraction to one's husband. As for Joe (remember him), I doubt that 'child minding at Joe's' would be feasible.
'Dislike' would be the word. I don't intend to argue.
The lesser of two evils ? Trump seems to have more of the quality of 'character' than the other two.

Michael Moore accurately predicted 2016 and also the reasons why Trump won. He's a bright guy and a good indicator, and in his current social media he is almost frantic in his appeals for Democrat votes.

However, I suspect this will come down to who will best manage the chaos of a close contested result over the course of some weeks.

rdm

I’m a Canadian living the past 26 years in Oz. The noise I hear isn’t Trump. It’s the low independence-low truth-low intellect-high hysteria media reporting Trump.
David, impressionable, timid David; look at what the man achieved rather than the reported clamour about him! Where now is the atom booming doom song of NK? How about NATO preaching less and paying more? How about unemployment at record lows? (at least prior to the Chinese virus) How about reduced regulation, easier business start-up, freedom causing fracking, cancelling of divisive pseudo-psych indoctrinations and many more nation building accomplishments. How about the now revealed dirty little plots, lies and intrigues, the unbounded hyperbole, the goose-step-like groupthink?
And in the face of a high intensity, sleet-stinging blizzard of near unanimous opposition of rent seekers, deep staters and associated camp followers, you proclaim that you are indeed tired of winning and cast your vote for democrats, because it’s all so confusing and rude? Wow! And I thought, (and think) my CBC-countrymen and their ABC- Ozzie counterparts contemptable and suggestible pussies!
45+ years ago I paid for my engineering degree by working with men much ruder than Trump, and I learned and have continued learning a lot from such.
Finally, to the honestly esteemed Colonel: I understand your summary, and I think you’ve stated it as briefly as possible. I hope you’re wrong in your analysis and right in your voting judgement and please realize, that there are many, many Canadians and Australians who fervently agree.

blue peacock

Trump has 2 more years. After the 2022 mid-term he'll be a lame duck and none of the Republicans will back him in any serious way.

In his current term, the DC insider status quo steamrolled him on the pivotal issue of Drain the Swamp and the structural issue of the Big Money-Big Government complex. Many of those who support him, have excused his inability to nail the coup plotters as him lacking any agency. The DC insider caucus remains as strong as ever.

Wouldn't they reassert their absolute supremacy in 2 years in any case? What do the Trump supporters think he'll accomplish as far as Drain the Swamp is concerned in his next 2 years that he didn't make a dent on in the past 4 years?

srw

Biden gets my vote. As my SD farmer brother who was hurt by his China trade war said, "He lies and cheats at golf. What more do you need to know."

Vegetius

Eurpidies, the founding generation and real conseravtices would all point to the hysterical behavior of American women them these past four years and remind us that the direct election of senators and the 19th Amendment were both bad ideas.

Deap

California is ready for change - watch Joe Collins take on Maxine Waters - in her own district, but also from her own home outside of her district: 44 years of failed Democrat representation in this California district: https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/10/navy-veteran-joe-collins-mansion-maxine-waters-campaign-ad/

Is the worm turning and sending the deep state packing? Even in California, they are finally speaking truth to power. Young black conservatives are HOT!

Babak makkinejad

Vegetius

About the 19-th Amendment to the United States Constitution:

I once read a comment, attributed to an older Southern lady, who opposed voting rights for women. She felt that women should not interest themselves in politics and leave it for men; " so that men have something to occupy them."

The other thing is that at the time of its passage, women married much younger now and bore children earlier: a 20-year old woman with 4 children was not uncommon: they were more mature, I should think, and earlier.

In regards to direct elections, the Israelis made the choice of prime minister dependent on the popular vote, making governments unstable and giving power to fringe parties.

Ghoti

Harris donated money to bail out the arsonists and rioters destroying Minneapolis. It is safe to assume that people do not send money to causes they oppose. I have not heard Harris express any sympathy for the victims of this violence. In fact, she threatened the continuation of this when she appeared on Colbert. I have no choice other than to take her at her word and to let her actions speak for themselves.

I believe that Trump is among the worst presidents this country has had. I am still voting for him because, as bad as he is, it is clear to me where he stands on the rioting, against it.

There is a reason why some Spanish speaking immigrants refer to “Que Mala” Harris. If you see the United States as a beacon of safety and opportunity, you are naturally suspicious of someone who desires to destroy that. As an American, I am in agreement with this stand. Harris is unacceptable.

Dr Puck

It looks like Ohio may be in play. Or, alternately, some substantial wave of voters not reflected in the polls will show up, 'unannounced' as it were. The city/rural divide is obvious from the lawn signs and mask compliance!

One thing I'm sure about is: if every legal vote is counted, whatever the result is, won't look like the 77,000 swing state vote victory of 2016. Politico has a nifty tool the obsessed can use to fiddle with demographics and turnout. https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer

I'm somewhat confident neither party will attempt to end the constitutional order, although the GOP being the party of active voter suppression and bogus claims of fraud are not good looks.

Trump's psychiatric profile, and negative 'public health' record, and trillion dollar gifts to the globalists, to me seems obvious enough, yet it doesn't figure into my non-decision. I'm a democrat.

Chuck Light

akaPatience: This may not please you, but you referred above to the IDB/TIPP poll, which you rightfully praise as a very good poll, just came out with its latest tracking poll, with polling from October 8 through October 11.

It has Biden up by +9 or +10. Only 851 likely voters, however.

Chuck Light

Sorry for the typo. I meant IBD/TIPP, not IDB/TIPP.

Chuck Light

Deap: With all due respect, Joe Collins may have a problem getting any traction against Maxine Waters, despite the fact that he has raised a lot of money, and is spending large sums on attack ads.

Apparently, Mr. Collins sued Ms. Waters for defamation on October 4, 2020, after she pointed out in an advertisement that he had been dishonorably discharged from the Navy. Unfortunately for Mr. Collins, it appears, from his own admissions in a prior case, that he was dishonorably discharged from the Navy.

The prior case was brought by Mr. Collins against the Navy in the Southern District of California, Case No. 17-cv-2451. The number 17 stands for the year of filing. In that case, he sued for, in addition to $100,000,000, an order compelling the Navy to reverse his dishonorable discharge and grant him an honorable discharge.

The Navy moved to dismiss the action for lack of jurisdiction on the grounds that Mr. Collins had filed the case in the District Court in the Southern District of California, rather than bringing it in the Court of Federal Claims, which had sole jurisdiction. Upon realizing his error, Mr. Collins moved for a change of venue.

On August 8, 2018, the District Court granted the Navy's motion to dismiss for lack of jurisdiction, and denied Mr. Collins motion for change of venue. The Court dismissed the case without prejudice and also without leave to amend.

Assuming that the facts as stated in the Court decision are correct, then Mr. Collins was dishonorably discharged and Ms. Waters, in her advertisement, told the truth which is a pretty good defense to an action for defamation. Bringing a false claim for defamation could also lead to an action by Ms. Waters for malicious prosecution, the best evidence of which would be the District Court opinion from the Southern District Court of California.

The Court opinion in 17-cv-2451 can be found here:

https://casetext.com/case/collins-v-us-navy-1

In all fairness, Mr. Collins might have been able to get his dishonorable discharge converted to honorable, but I have not found as yet any reputable indication that he has done so.

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