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26 October 2020

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English Outsider


Eric Newhill - Your earlier posts on the subject of Covid acted for me as a sharp corrective on attempting to take stats from one country and think they apply to another. And we only have to look at Sweden to see that regional variations make such a difference that we can't even generalise about what's happening with the virus in a single country.

But I still believe this infection is more serious everywhere than, say, a virulent strain of flu.

A major reason for that derives from the Colonel's observation above that very few die. I've seen no deaths among my own circle, UK or Germany or elsewhere including the US, and have heard of none in the neighbourhood.

But there are millions who are doing their level best not to be among those few or even among the greater number of those hospitalised. Whatever governments do those millions take precautions. So, for example, trade fell off in our local restaurants even before our first lockdown. Such resultant changes in spending patterns cannot but give the economy a knock. Certainly in the UK, which does not have the advantage of running the world's reserve currency, we may look for trouble on that front whether HMG adopted a let it rip policy or not.

And I'm not at all happy with the comorbidity argument. Tens, cumulatively hundreds of thousands are spent on keeping young people suffering from, say, cystic fibrosis alive. Are we now to write them off and say "They'd have died anyway?"

For these and other reasons - we don't, after all, know so much about the virus as yet - and even at this late stage, I'd hope to see public health measures devoted, to use a term seen frequently earlier, to "crushing the curve" rather than smoothing it.

It seems callous to move on from epidemiological to political considerations but it's serious in that area too. In my country it's got in the way of a sensible resolution to the Brexit dispute by weakening HMG at a critical time. In yours?

I still reckon Trump will win. The difficulties there have in any case more to do with legalised voter fraud and an adversarial media. A little while back, though, had anyone suggested that such a candidate as Burisma Biden would run him close they'd have been laughed away.

Now, there's no denying that the havoc wrought by Covid has rendered the unthinkable thinkable. The US is closer than it should be to getting into the top job about as unsuitable a President as one could imagine. So really, Covid has turned the politics of the leading Western power into a farce; and it's still the case that when the US sneezes the rest of us come down with a cold.

Just a comment on what I hope is an inaccuracy in your post. I refuse to believe, even in the vast medical databases you tend to in your professional capacity, that you've ever seen a bill come in for curing termites in a wooden leg.

NancyK

Fred as a nurse for many years with many friends still in the medical field, I know what standard practice is and believe me what Trump received is not standard practice. Granted Covid does not pose such a huge threat to younger people however there are millions of Americans over the age of 70 and if the virus hits in mass they will swamp all medical facilities and that will impact upon children and younger adults.
Many diseases cause death from secondary factors, those factors increase the likelihood of contracting the disease and increasing mortality, diseases such as diabetes, obesity, asthma, high blood pressure and heart disease. These factors are more prevalent in older and poorer people. It is not just the homeless person you mention that will succumb to covid. Trump is in the high risk category he is 74, obese, is supposedly on a statin so has some type of underlying cholesterol and or heart problem. He however was rushed to the hospital which a regular person would not be and started on medication supposedly not even aproved yet.

Fred

James,

Do you LOL while Trudeau sells out Canada to China?

Fred

Looks like the Wuhan virus, Covid19 to those of you with delicate feelings, has killed off the flu:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8875201/Has-Covid-killed-flu.html

turcopolier

Fred,

Quoi? Le petit justin?

rick

In re COVID-19. People get the virus, but very few die! VERY FEW DIE! Does Trump look dead to you? He had the virus. pl

You raise a good point.

Not everyone who gets cancer dies. Yet considerable time, effort , and expense is expended every year to avoid it. How foolish is that? Heart disease is, likewise, not uniformly fatal, AND is nearly always a result of lifestyle. I don't even see why insurance covers that nonsense. If you let heart and cancer patients die, eventually those genes will be out of the pool and we will be herd immune to both cancer and heart disease.

Almost nobody actually dies of old age. Why bother wasting resources on them that could be growing the economy? Why should someone else's health concerns effect me? I'm healthy.

turcopolier

NancyK

not such a "huge threat?" what threat? Trump. He is the president for god's sake. Every one of the military hospitals in the DC area has a VIP clinic for government bigwigs to safeguard them. Do you imagine that the president will not receive special treatment? It is useless to argue with you.

Eric Newhill

PRC90,
In the US, your father would definitely be counted as a covid death if the virus were to be found in his system. In fact, he'd be the typical covid death. In some other countries he would not be; which makes hash out of the country to country comparison of effectiveness of intervention on the metric of fatality rate - a very silly comparison for other reasons as well.

Due to the vagaries of the methodologies for determining what exactly is a covid death, it is near impossible to arrive at a clear picture of the fatality rate, but Col Lang's .06% is going to be very close to it.

turcopolier

rick

You express the usual brain-dead sentimental leftist inability to think straight. I speak of ENTIRE POPULATIONS not the fate of individuals. Individuals must be cared for. It is a moral duty. As for Trump, once again. HE IS THE PRESIDENT OF THE US, dummy!

Fred

Col.,

Justin's a work in progress:
https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2018/11/14/prime-minister-announces-strengthened-partnership-china

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/tmac-resources-purchase-agreement-1.5576240

Then there's the legislation surrounding SNC-Lavalin, though specificly linked to Libya, changing the law to protect the guilty seems right out of the central committee playbook.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC-Lavalin_affair#Introduction_of_deferred_prosecution_agreements
Then there is the mandatory speech requirements of Bill C16
https://westerncourier.com/46963/opinions/the-controversy-over-the-bill-c-16/

Fred

Nancy K,

Granted Covid does not pose such a huge threat to younger people however there are millions of Americans over the age of 70 and if the virus hits in mass they will swamp all medical facilities and that will impact upon children and younger adults.

Did you forget the 15 days to slow the spread that is now in month 9? Did you forget the Javits Center, the hospital ships, Cuomo's demand for 30,000 ventilators? Did you forget that multiple states - and it was the states not the federal government - stopped routine medical and dental care? Have you forgotten all that?

How many people are going to die because cancer screenings weren't happening? How many suicides and drug O.D.'s due to mandatroy lockdowns? How is that not medical malpractice?

How about the lock downs of schools and businesses? That's the largest" impact upon children and younger adults." For what, so somebody's grandmother can have a reduced risk from a virus that is 95% survivable in their age group? To hell with their grandmothers, they can 'stay home, stay safe' and mask up to assuage their fear. We shouldn't betray our children to keep granny from being afraid, or elect Joe Biden either.

Serge

Fred,

China-Canada relations have soured significantly since late 2018. Regarding SNC-Lavalin, Trudeau was protecting Quebec from the feds so I have to give the man a pass.Bill C16 is unconscionable but is a product of the same virulent strain of leftism running unchecked in both the US and Canada, not anything unique to Trudeau or his ideas. And it's not as bad as Harper's C51, in the wider view.

srw

PL,
Death rate across the US population is .06%.True. Death rate from those who catch the virus, 2.6%. The .06% death rate for the US population is current. The disease has not run its course in the US so will most assuredly will be higher in the end. Good news about the death rate for those who catch the disease is that they know a lot more on how to treat it so I imagine the figure will go down.

fakebot

That's the least of it, Justin has expressed admiration for China's "basic dictatorship."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-under-fire-for-expressing-admiration-for-china-s-basic-dictatorship-1.1535116

Speaking to a sold-out crowd of women, Trudeau was responding to a question about which nation’s administration he most admired.

The Liberal leader said: “There’s a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually turn their economy around on a dime and say, ‘We need to go green … we need to start investing in solar.’”

(... He later clarified those remarks)

“I pointed out that globally, Canada is up against big countries (China, for one) that can address some major issues quickly,” he wrote on Twitter.

“It’s ridiculous for anyone to suggest that I of all people would trade our rights and freedoms for any other system of (government).”

Robert Bernard

Where is the proof that Trump ever tested positive? How do we know this is not a political ploy?

Eric Newhill

EO,
Ha ha. No. Never actually seen a claim for termites in a peg leg, but it sounds like a Democrat's apocalyptic vision of the state of US healthcare under a Trump administration. If Biden made the statement, I wouldn't even be a little bit surprised. That said, we do have claims for the Peroni's Disorder. There's a drug for it. Despite the belief that insurance doesn't care about people's needs, we pay for the drug and therapy.

I don't think you're presenting the comorbidity argument correctly. The only people who are withdrawing care from those who need it are the lockdown advocates, de facto, because people in need can't get doctors appointments and other services (see what Fred, correctly, stated above).

Actually, I wouldn't even call it an argument; more a statement of fact. The avg life span in the US is around 78 years and change. The avg age of the deaths attributed to covid is 78 and change. The UK has similar stats, though slightly higher avg age for both metrics. I know what I see in our data re comorbidities (albeit with very low volumes of medical Tx due to covid) and last week I was CC'ed on a report from one of our actuarial consultant vendors that compiles data from across a number of insurance companies. The bottom line is that those who's deaths are attributed to covid do not have very many years of life ahead of them covid or no covid. The biggest volume buckets are those who had < 1 year and 1 to 2 years of expected life left.

I don't know what else to say other than we, and our loved ones, are all going to die some day and we need to get used to that idea. And that decisions in life are always based on a set of trade-offs, not a bad choice versus utopia. Trump is 100% correct - from a societal standpoint - that the "cure" cannot be worse than the disease.

Deap

Leith, How do you "rush the President to the hospital" when Walter Reed is only a mile or so from the White House? Surely the phrase "an abundance of caution" is now well embedded into the covid-overkill vocabulary so this preventive move was appropriate.

Seems I read Trump's "oxygen saturation" level had dropped to 94, on point below the normal threshold of 95. Walter Reed has a platoon of doctors because that is the function of Walter Reed. Normal business operations, particularly when the Commander in Chief is the honored guest.

Now you tell me after seeing Trump on the campaign trail "post-covid, is he that fragile? After you sort all of that out, then get back to me when you make up your mind whether Trump - the Super Spreader in Chief - was just faking "covid" or not?

What is your real point - why such a bad case of untreated TDS, that you had to dig so deeply in order to construct your "covid" scenario? Trump is gonna die vs Trump was faking it - both on the same set of facts. My head spins trying to keep up with you. What is your personal stake in this election?

Diana L Croissant

To steal a quote, but one that is applicable nowadays:

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself."

I think the Democrats try to frighten people into voting for them by using the virus and then touting their big-government fixes.

As I've written before, I have lived through so many "scary" disease epidemics in my life: measles of both kinds, mumps, strep infections, and polio. And don't forget West Nile Virus (Was that Ebola?) and SARS and others. I caught some of the less scary and more common viruses and lived and lived through the epidemics sometimes without catching them.

Over the years, and partially thanks to Dr. Salk, I have become a fan of our American medical system. But, I am also a Christian and do not fear death. To some that makes me a sucker; but if a person actually believes, it provides a great expectation of a better place once one goes through death.

And that it why the Democrats dislike Christians, who are the least likely to fall for their scare tactics. Our church, for example, shut down only two weekends until we had the sanitizing protocol in place for the building. We do NOT wear masks. So far, I know of none member who has come down with the virus. Other denominations in our town have not held services since the virus scare first surfaced. that causes me only to be happy that I am a member of a congregation of real believers.

turcopolier

Deap

7.5 miles as the crow flies.

turcopolier

Robert Bernard

So, you think all these doctors at the WH and Walter Reed are lying? C'mon, man.

Eric Newhill

srw,
Yes. We have learned how to better treat severe covid cases. That will drop the death rate among those with serious infections. Part of that formula is that hospitals are no longer inappropriately slapping people onto vents - they were doing that in the first few months of this thing. Vents are very dangerous and can kill people by themselves in various ways. Additionally, one of the early protocols was to put the vent patient into a coma; another potentially lethal treatment. The hospitals killed a lot of patients that would have lived with overly aggressive treatment. Remember, if you're doubting me, that "medical errors" kill, conservatively, 330K Americans every year. Anesthesia errors kill a lot of people even in routine operations.

Your approach to the calculation does not take into account all of the undiagnosed cases. Surely that figure is an order of magnitude larger than confirmed case counts. With the typical infection not causing serious symptoms, most people either don't know they have contracted the virus, or they just think they have a common cold or flu at worst. They don't get tested. There is also a disincentive for getting tested in that in many states you get locked down and your friends and neighborhood businesses are contact traced and subjected to similar punitive measures. Who want that hassle, or to inflict it on others?

We are all going to contract the virus sooner or later. There is simply no way to prevent that. Masks won't help. It is impossible for everyone to socially isolate for a year or more. The weakest will lose a year or so of whatever life they had ahead of them. A small number will lose more than a year; maybe three or four. So what? There are lots of conditions that are causing a greater loss of years on the material plane of existence and we don't care or do anything about it. Obesity is just one of these. Once you take the desperate politics out of it, the answer is to take care of your own health and to live life to its fullest - whatever that means to you - and except that any day, covid or no covid, could be your last on earth. Or, in other words, stop being a coward.

turcopolier

srw

"Death rate from those who catch the virus, 2.6%." Sure but we don't know how many of these died of the virus and not some co-morbidity.

EEngineer

@SRW

Do you have a publicly accessible link to the number of military deaths due to (or with) CV19?

james

@ elaine.. i can't answer your question as the usa situation is completely confusing to me, an ignoramus who lives in canada!

@ fred... yes, i will LOL that too! fact is both canada and the usa sold out to china a long time ago... we no longer live in this world of nationalism, but one of corporatism... corporations rule and they want to do whatever they want for profit and are happy to screw any concepts of nationalism... unfortunately not many people see it like me and are still under the false impression that they have a country that is independent from the designs of corporate rule... they are wrong as i see it... so - yeah LOL to your idea too.. it already happened.. same deal with the idea of the usa not selling out to china.. that horse left the barn a long time ago.. just ask the CEO of walmart or any other CEO that is completely beholden to the cheap labour and etc. etc. from china... i can't believe how easily fooled people are... but - remember, i am ignorant, LOLOL!

English Outsider


Thanks Eric. My lovely century old pitchfork has just started to get woodworm I've noticed. Shan't be coming your way for a remedy looks like. Googled the condition you mention and wish there were a way of ungoogling it. Chamber of horrors, the medical line. So many horrors that it seems to me the best argument against Intelligent Design is that it isn't.

Can't speak of the States, as said. But I'd like to see the thing being handled better in the UK. A ton of money is being spent and I think it could be better targeted. I'm beginning to get the notion that the real problem is excessive centralisation. Won't go into that further here. Maybe sometime when there aren't other matters to the fore you could set out your views on that, seeing it all as you do from the inside.

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