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05 September 2020

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Artemesia

Would VP Kamala throw US military support to India in order to tilt Modi's chessboard?

Would she divert that military support from Pres. Joe "I am a zionist" Biden's support for Israel, or would US taxpayers be expected to finance (i.e. borrow from China!) both theaters?

J

India and Russia are conducting a joint naval exercise near the Strait of Malacca, which is China’s Achilles heel. The exercise started yesterday through today at the Andaman Islands, during the time period when India's Defense Minister's scheduled meeting in Moscow.

This is in the same area that an upcoming November exercise involving India - Quad with Australia possibly taking part.

The CCP is infuriated with the developments as the Strait of Malacca is the choke-point where India has been steadily applying pressure. Roughly 80% of China’s oil supplies pass through the South China Sea via the Strait of Malacca, and growing Indian presence in its close proximity can easily hamper China’s supply from the Middle East bringing the CCP to its knees.

India has been actively militarizing the strategically important Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal which is in proximity to the strait. Also India has announced that it's considering building a trans-shipment port in the Great Nicobar Islands. If China tries to move through the Northwest of the Strait of Malacca, then rest assured that New Delhi will be tracking their every move. Japan, U.S., and Australia are already tightening their nooses. India and Australia signed a mutual joint agreement, which enables both countries use of each others military bases for enhanced patrolling of the Indo-Pacific region.


https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/russian-navy-to-join-naval-exercise-in-andaman-on-september-4/645639

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/india-australia-sign-mutual-logistics-support-agreement-to-increase-military-inter-operability20200604222603/

A.I.S.

To put it bluntly, the odds of an Indian victory by invading Tibet, and the absence of simultaneous Chinese conflicts with at least one other serious great power (meaning Russia or the USA), are extraordinarily remote.

China has dilligently combined their "integration" efforts in both Xinjian and Tibet with considerable efforts of improving their infrastructure in these areas. This in turn drastically increases the logisitical weight a Chinese force defending their Tibetan holdings can have.

Comparably investments on the Indian side have been decisively mediocre. Massive logistical disadvantages are pretty hard to fight into.


The chinese army of today also is not the chinese army of 1962.

The current Mao dynasty is still rising. Time needs to take its course, so that it becomes decadent and incompetent (which has historically speaking happened to every single previous dynasty, and which will also happen to this dynasty). Xi Jinping is someone who personally knows hardship (he was apparently "soft-purged" meaning exile to a podunk village, during the culture revolution due to his parents being purged quite a bit harder), he has prevailed other considerable odds, and well, to use popular culture, Xi Jingping is Tywin Lannister. If you want to defeat China, wait till Joffrey takes over. Much easier with some patience.

This man is a formidable foe, Cao Mengdes (Cao Cao more informally, also had a quite personality forming experience on being on the run and exiled) heir perhaps.

John Unhinge

China clearly has ambitions on Ladahk or it would not be contesting the border at all. By establishing itself in the mountains together with its association with Pakistan re the New Silk Road it threatens to bypass India.
While Indian camel riders at ceremonies create a romantic backdrop, the harsh reality is that India is somewhere around 1970 developmental wise compared to China and is highly vulnerable to a conventional attack.
A 10,000 strong mountain warfare unit stands no chance against the Chinese PLA except as a thorn in the side for a year or two. The US is not able to provide the sort of logistic support that would be required for success. (Ask the Kurds if you sincerely think the US is anything more than inept!)
The US is enjoying all the ‘horrors’ today that it has imposed on countless nations around the world over the last 70 years. The world looks on at chaos in the US without sympathy watching the chickens come home to roost.
Besides, as the Russians put it, the US is ‘not agreement capable’, consequently only a fool would trust them, especially as they are totally disunited during what passes for a democratic election in a nation run by oligarchs.
Whether someone has been on active service or not is irrelevant. You don’t need to know anything about military matters to see the folly of Indian support for what is essentially a terrorist organisation operating out of its northern homelands.
I have military experience but have never been on active service. I don’t consider myself an authority on anything, especially military matters. All you need is common sense, which if you have had a university education you won’t have, even though you might be very clever.
John Unhinge.

turcopolier

John Unhinge

"if you have had a university education you won’t have, even though you might be very clever." Is this a clever Brit remark directed at me?

J

One other item is the rebellion taking place against the CCP in Inner Mongolia. The Mongols of both Inner Mongolia and Mongolia are tough lot. There are a lot of forces in their formative stages when combined will give the CCP PLA a run for their money.

Babak makkinejad

J

Chinese-Russian Entente is not going to be disturbed by some meaningless naval exercises.

"Infuriated Chinese"? Hardly!

Amused? Definitely.

It is not every day that a country with 750 million souls living on $ 1 per day or less (500 million living on less than that) starts acting as though she is somebody of strategic consequence.

Quad, and BRICS before it, created by Americans in both cases, really seem to leading people astray, blowing wind up their shalwars.

Babak makkinejad

A.I.S.

Dynastic cycles had a lot to do with agricultural productivity and imperial consumption.

With industrial production that dynamics no longer holds.

The Chinese Communist Party is a meritocracy of 15 million people.

The Past, in this case, is not a guide to the Future.

Personally, I think appeasing China is the most prudent course of action.

Leith

John U -

China does not want Ladakh. Almost half of the population of Ladakh are Muslims, mostly Shia. China does not need that headache.

Although in the event of a Indian/Pakistan War they might support Islamabad by creating diversions in Ladakh. In 1948 Pakistani forces were able to occupy parts of Ladakh. They almost captured the capitol Leh, but were repulsed by elements of the 4th and 8th Gurkha Rifles of the Indian Army. The 4th had been airlifted in at the last minute. The 8th did a forced march of 470 km over mountainous terrain from Himachal Pradesh.

Jim S

J,
Please forgive a clarification, but before the usual folks start pissing and moaning about color revolutions, the CCP kicked things off in Inner Mongolia by announcing the Mongolian language will not be taught anymore in schools. The Mongolian minority in China consider themselves to be sheep, but this move really stirred the pot.

Why the CCP chose this moment to stir it is anyone's guess.

blue peacock

The CCP's attempt to steal a few hundred meters of territory in the Ladakh region has boomeranged on them.

India is a huge consumer of cheap Chinese products. Now more than a hundred Chinese apps from TikTok to WeChat and Alipay are banned in India. Many other products are being curtailed. China's annual exports to India is around $80 billion. Not a small amount.

With significant attention in the US on CCP IP theft, espionage, and mercantilism and with tariffs on Chinese goods, the possibility is that a Trump win will only ratchet up the pressure. Many US companies are beginning to hedge their Chinese supply chains. Apple for example is putting together a huge manufacturing capability in India reducing their Chinese footprint.

The Wuhan virus have given many people pause on how much integration do they really want wth the CCP-run China. It is unlikely the CCP will continue to get a pass as they have over the past 30 years.

Xi has to become even more repressive to insure his own survival against others in the CCP who are looking for weakness. IMO, China is heading into a period of great instability with an over-sized banking system reminiscent of Japan's in the late 80s. In such situations paramount leaders many times miscalculate.

This talk by Australian John Garnaut is very interesting if you want to get another perspective on Xi's China.

https://sinocism.com/p/engineers-of-the-soul-ideology-in

Babak makkinejad

Escarlata

Si, "ha ido a la Universidad..", pero no educado.


El burro de Jesús, llevado a Jerusalén, regresando, sigue siendo un burro.

Babak makkinejad

J

So we move from Gurkhas now to Mongols as partisans of the forlorn hope of Containing China?

Almost all of the population of Mongolia lives in shanties around Ulan Batur. They are not a threat to China.

Jack

It would appear that in any China-India military conflict the most valuable assistance that the US can provide India is intelligence including high quality reconnaissance imagery of Chinese movements.

India should have learned some military lessons when they were surprised with Pakistani infiltration in the western Ladakh area of Kargil. Their subsequent military offensive to evict the Pakistani military while successful must have shown their limitations and possibly updated their high altitude combat strategies.

Apparently one of the reasons for tension in the region is CCP unhappiness with India’s attempts at equalizing the Chinese logistical advantage by building all-weather roads and bridges. There have also been clashes between PLA soldiers and Indian military forces in the Eastern Himalaya border regions.

The notion that CCP have no territorial ambitions in the region is preposterous. They have a long history of military provocations along the ill-defined border.

Jack

A description of Indian military counter-moves to the PLA actions in Ladakh.

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/indian-offensive-retake-chinese-seized-territory-hidden-story

Maybe those with military experience can comment. What happens as winter sets in?

A. Pols

I didn't intend for it to be inferred that I thought "J" was in Charlottesville. There's a durable presence of Dalai Lama devotees based at UVA and they are emblematic of the "Friends of Tibet" movement in this country. People have their pet causes....

Jack

blue peacock

This story in Asia Nikkei points to the purges in the internal security apparatus by Xi. As you note Xi is clearly preparing for further repression in China.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/China-officials-run-for-cover-as-Xi-Jinping-prepares-another-brutal-purge

Joe90

J

10,ooo troops without armor, artillery or AD is a light infantery division. How does that division, after conquering Tibet, survive the inevitable PLA attack? How many 10´s of square kilo-meters is each solider supposed to capture and defend? What is the Han population of Tibet that this division has to police?

why do you have posting rights?

J

Babak,

The CCP PLA-GF (ground force) has been impacted greatly with their one child policy. The Chinese family unit are very protective of their 'one child'. In addition, PLA-GF commanders at least three years ago were complaining that their troops were spending too much time on video games and masturbation, and not enough time on being soldiers. The PLA is composed of non-combat experience, whereas the Indian army is battle-hardened with their experiences dealing with Kashmir. India recruits the SFF from highlanders and highland villages, where they are acclimated to high altitude training and fighting. The PLA are not acclimated to such extremes, and never will be. The SFF are born into high altitudes. I can relate to that as I was born and raised in a high altitude environment, and because of it I could last longer in sporting events from those that were raised in lower altitudes.

The SFF is a unconventional force a covert paramilitary unit under the direction of the Indian Army and Indian Intelligence, not a conventional one. Their mission is hit and run, sabotage and disrupt. Guerrilla warfare. When and I say when Tibet is liberated from the illegal Chinese invaders, the SFF can help with India's assistance set up a regular standing military to defend and protect Tibet.

The last time any member of the PLA-GF saw any type of combat was in 1979, and those that did and remain are in the retirement bracket.

https://nypost.com/2017/08/25/excessive-masturbation-is-hurting-chinas-military/

turcopolier

Joe90

He has it because I gave it to him and can withdraw it whenever I please.

Babak makkinejad

J

Indian Army murdering Muslim civilians in Kashmir is as battle-hardened as Israelis murdering Muslim and Christian Arabs.

And that bit about tough "Highlanders..." reminds me of similar assertions to the superiority of The Southern Soldier to the Northern Soldiers on the eve of WBS.

However a curate such estimations are, China will prevail since she has more trained men, and more equipment to feed the war, when it comes.

Indians be fools to carry, yet again, Whie Man's Burden, but this time in the Himalayas.

When they are thorougly rolled up, please recall that you heard it first from me on this forum.

Jack

“When they are thorougly rolled up...”

The opposite happened in the Ladakh Himalaya. The CCP stealth expropriation of Indian territory was quickly rolled back by Indian military forces. They demonstrated rapid logistical buildup and ability to field soldiers and materials with high altitude acclimatization.

When PLA forces surprised an Indian patrol in the high mountains and killed the unarmed commanding officer, the Indian forces responded rapidly. That’s the well publicized incident with multiple casualties on both sides.

The PLA is not as strong as many believe, IMO. Likewise they’ve been murdering and interning Muslim Uighurs in concentration camps but the Ayatollah is busy bending his knee to the godless communists.

Babak makkinejad

Jack

Why don't you humanitarian do-gooders invade Sin-Kiang with a combined force of the Gurkhas, Indian Highlanders, 82 Airborne and the Golani Brigade and liberate all those oppressed Muslims?

It would be a joint Hindu-Protestant-Jew undertaking, a military version of the usual Prayer Breakfast. Hey, you might even get that Gucchi- wearing Lama would contribute a few peaceful warriors.

Jack

J,

The Economist has a story on the use of SFF.

“The raid at Chushul was notable because India used its Special Frontier Force (SFF), a Tibetan-manned unit originally established in 1962, after a war between India and China, with help from America’s CIA.”

https://twitter.com/levigundert/status/1303545744830296065?s=21

Xi may risk a border war to insure patriotic fervor to bolster his weakening domestic support. It appears from actions by India that they’re more prepared militarily than Xi believes. In fact in the aftermath of the Galwan clashes earlier this past summer, Russia was speed delivering combat aircraft and other advanced military gear to the Indian military.

vince

Jack,

"When PLA forces surprised an Indian patrol in the high mountains and killed the unarmed commanding officer, the Indian forces responded rapidly. That’s the well publicized incident with multiple casualties on both sides"

I'm curious of the source of this tidbit? I hope it's not Indian sources( if you believe Indian sources then not only was their strike on Pakistan successful but they shot down an f16 as well, evidence of which I am still waiting to see), cause I have yet to read of any Chinese casualties from any credible sources on that incident. And the fact that the Chinese had Indian prisoners to hand over but the Indians had no Chinese ones, makes me sceptical of your implying the Indians handled that incident well. The opposite seems to be the case.

And btw for clarity's sake: I am an ethnic indian, so don't paint me as some sinophile.

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