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05 September 2020

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Babak makkinejad

J:

This is a fool's errand for India and will result, when push comes to shove, in a defeat far far worse than the one India suffered in 1962.


Fred

J,

"who's unquestioned loyalty is to the Dalai Lama"

If memory serves the current Dalai Lama has long ago given up on a free Tibet, having failed to allow it to be defended back in the '50s.

A. Pols

I don't recall seeing "J" post before, but maybe I just don't recall. However, the post seems sort of a random outlier, but perhaps J is affiliated with the persistent "Friends of Tibet" cult which we see here in Charlottesville. They cling to the hope of somehow staging a "reconquista" of Tibet. It seems highly unlikely this will happen in our times and if the Indian Govt. is serious about stoking this past the minor annoyance level it's been at for decades, then they're walking in harm's way. If this small band of fierce warrior "werewolves" plans to move out of the mountains and go beyond random attacks on PLA border patrols, the Chinese aren't going to simply abandon the huge investment in modernising Tibet and go home.

J

Babek,

Have you ever been in combat? A fools errand academic viewpoint is quite different from one who is fighting to reclaim their homeland from the CCP. With India, U.S. Australia, and Japan by the SFF's side, the SFF and Quad will win also include the U.K., S. Korea, and Taiwan joining the SFF fight for a free Tibet.

turcopolier

A Pols

"J" has posted here a number of times. You missed that. He is a retired USAF member who is a farmer in Oklahoma, not in Charlottesville.

turcopolier

J

Have YOU ever been in combat?

J

Colonel,
Yes.

David Habakkuk

As someone who has never been in combat – I am a congenital civilian, not through any contempt for the professions of arms, but purely through complete unsuitability – I take care to pay due attention to people who have, on the many matters where the possession of such experience is relevant.

However, when a question like ‘Have you ever been in combat?’ is used to stifle argument on a difficult and very important issue, I think this is very bad news.

It ends up being rather like ‘my dick is bigger than yours’ arguments: beneath contempt.

When it is, and is not, prudent, and moral, to encourage insurgencies against other powers, is commonly a very difficult issue.

Among other things, it may be prudent to ask whether the same games you want to see played against others may in the end be played against you.

We have seen a great deal of utter BS about Russian intervention in your – and our – elections, arising from the utter inability of the ‘Borg’ to comprehend that anyone could disagree with the ultimate truth its members – quite genuinely, very often, in my view - see themselves as representing.

Who knows? I may still live to see the Chinese government providing support to a ‘Santa Ana Liberation Front’ using all kinds of interesting methods to reverse what is portrayed as the illegitimate acquisition of Texas.

And perhaps, Chinese newspapers will betray the same kind of incomprehension about the significance that the Alamo still has – at least for some in the United States – as their American and British counterparts have displayed for the significance that Sevastopol has for many Russians.

turcopolier

J

Where and in what capacity? You asked Babak this question and thus invited this line of questioning.

walrus

J, I don’t think the SFF have a snowballs chance, and, by the way, leave Australia out of it. We are already having to cope with Chinese interference in the pacific islands and new guinea. We don’t need to encourage them further.

walrus

P. S. How would you like Chinese air and naval bases plus a few divisions of the PLA in Cuba?

turcopolier

David Habakkuk

I will try to avoid asking people about their military service. Point well taken.

BillWade

I'm wishing to see the liberation of Laos in my lifetime.

J

Colonel,

The question appeared as a view from an academic standpoint is all. The India soldiers and SFF who have to deal with the CCP PLA view it as no errand foolishness.

Babak makkinejad

J

No.

But I do not bieve you have a reliable assessment of China.

They will crush India.

David Habakkuk

walrus,

Exactly. Moreover, with the way matters are going, the question you raise may become relevant rather sooner than many anticipate.

There are actually some very good academic analysts of both Chinese and Russian military affairs associated with the U.S. military. One for whom I have acquired considerable respect is Lyle J. Goldstein, who is based at the Naval War College, and who can read both languages.

Among many interesting contributions by him, one which I think merits reflection is a piece in December last year in the ‘National Interest’ headlined ‘Why China Wants Its Navy to Patrol the Atlantic Ocean.’

(See https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-china-wants-its-navy-patrol-atlantic-ocean-105187 .)

Leith

I hate to agree with Babak Makkinejad, but in this case he is correct.

If Trump uses American troops or air support to side with the 'phantom' SFF then he would be a bigger idiot than many think him to be. Ditto for the leadership in Australia, Japan, the U.K., S. Korea, and Taiwan that you mention.

Tibet will be under the control of Beijing until (and if) China implodes; which will hopefully be sooner than later.

SFF will not be welcomed by Tibetans, as they were no better off under the pre-1959 feudal nobles than they are now under the ChiComs.

Jack

I am as anti-CCP as it comes. IMO, they’re a malign force for both the Chinese people and the world. Having said that, I don’t believe India has the military capability including manpower, firepower and logistics to fight in the high mountains. They’ll lose just like they did in 1962, when the Chinese attacked to acquire the strategic heights and were able to get all the way to the plains. Indian politicians will have no choice but to sue for a disadvantageous peace or escalate to nuclear which would devastate both countries.

I’ve trekked in these mountain areas in my youth. No doubt road infrastructure is much better now. However, it is unforgiving terrain.

I’d be curious if those with military expertise can comment on what basis India could even hold their current positions in the event of the PLA moving to take more territory?

Jack

walrus, David,

If the CCP sets up bases in Cuba, it wouldn’t be too long before the US establishes military assets in Taiwan. That would be a bridge too far even for the totalitarian CCP, IMO.

I believe the CCP is stretched thin both internally and externally in their belief they will be the next hegemon. They’ve just taken over the electric grid in Laos due to a loan default. This is happening in other places in Asia, Africa and Latin America with increasing default of infrastructure debt. A backlash is building. The Czech government for a first in Europe have directly challenged the CCP despite threats with an official visit to Taiwan.

J

Babak. Colonel,

I meant no disrespect, I should have worded differently. For that I humbly apologize.

India will NOT be crushed by the CCP PLA. Quite to the contrary. India military and Intelligence are not the India of 62. Modi has been carefully lining up India's chess pieces. All of the Quad wants a piece of the CCPs hide and are laying their groundwork accordingly.

The CCP PLA have been attempting slow creep along the LOC to which India has been engaged in counter creep to neutralize any PLA inroad. The PLA have nothing to compare with the SFF.

Mark Logan

J,

I suspect the matter will be decided by Chinese interests and thereby commitment in Tibet. Tibetans are not Chinese, so that interest appears to be military and strategic. Moreover, of defense not offense. The mountains are a daunting obstacle in any plan to expand into Pakistan or India and there is no obvious reason for China to wish to do so.
I read the Chinese view the area as critical for defense. They DO NOT want an Indian "beach head" on the Chinese side of the Himalayas. IF true I suspect the SFF forces can not expect to expel the Chinese from Tibet, but they could win concessions in the nature of Chinese occupation...IF they play their cards right.

Pacifica_Advocate

This reads as an interloper on this blog.

I am surprised you would allow such a fatuously propagandized--and counterfactual--post among your "Committee of Correspondence," good Colonel.

Yes, Tibet is a territory. Yes, Tibet is a culture, formerly of great power. Yes, Tibet is a culture under threat of extinction.

This sort of "promotion", however--even the Dalai Lama agrees that this is counterproductive.

turcopolier

Pacifica Advocate

So, you want me to withdraw his posting privilege?

Godfree Roberts

International law allows governments to regulate religions to prevent their use as vehicles for violence or separatism, and China bans public religious activities on that basis but, since public worship is integral to their culture, Tibetans still worship publicly and their religion is flourishing.

Forty living Buddhas and one-hundred fifty-thousand monks and nuns are engaged in scriptural study and debate, degree promotion, initiation, and abhisheka empowerment, and self-cultivation and the Living Buddha reincarnation system are thriving. Home shrines, however, show divided loyalties. Some are dedicated to the Dalai Lama, some to the Panchen Lama, and some to Mao Zedong who, like Lincoln, is revered as the Great Emancipator.

Professor Melvyn Goldstein[1] conducted fieldwork in rural Tibet in 2000 and asked, “Do You Have a Better Life Now Than Your Parents Did?” Ninety-percent of those who had experienced the Dalai Lama’s regime said, “Yes.” Following the 2008 riots, the Tibetan Government in Exile secretly asked[2] seventeen thousand resident Tibetans if they wanted full independence, renzig. Thirty-percent said, “Yes,” while forty-seven percent preferred limited true autonomy within China[3], as the original agreement offered in 1953 (and offered again in the 1980s).


[1] Contemporary Tibet: Politics, Development and Society in a Disputed ..Sautman et al. Goldstein was Chairman of Case Western's Department of Anthropology and Director of the Center for Research on Tibet He married the daughter of the famous Tibetan scholar-official-aristocrat, Surkhang Wangchen Gelek, and was elected to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 2009.
[2] DHARAMSALA, India: Tibetan leaders opened a six-day meeting over the direction of their struggle with China on Monday, after the Dalai Lama, the region’s exiled spiritual leader, expressed frustration over years of fruitless talks with Beijing.The meeting here in northern India, called by the Dalai Lama, comes after his comments last month bemoaning the lack of any progress by his envoys in talks with the Chinese government since 2002. Karma Chophel, speaker of Parliament in the government-in-exile, said more than 8,000 of 17,000 Tibetans recently surveyed in Tibet said they would follow the Dalai Lama. More than 5,000 said they wanted Tibetan independence, more than twice the number who wanted to continue with the current approach, he said. He did not offer any details about how the survey was conducted. Tibetan Exiles Discuss Impasse with China. Memories of Movement. November 17, 2008.
[3] The remainder chose the status quo or had no opinion.

Babak makkinejad

J

No umbarge taken but if your sentences are a true reflection of the Modi government's views, then Indians are living in a very very dangerous fantasy.

That is, they have very exaggerated view of their own capabilities.

China uses this LoC issue festered to keep India off balance when China so wishes.

Quad? What Quad? Is US going to be fighting in Himalayas together with India against China? Or is Japan? Or Australia?

I do not think so.

US diplomats went to Indians, flased their eyelashes, bandied the word Quad and played on Indians' insecurities, delusions, and vanities and got them to assume a far more anti-Chinese posture than was warranted or sensible.

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