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19 September 2020

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Fred

Mark46,

I'm about half a million ahead, having chosen not to invest with friends in a business in Michigan. They, like thousands of others, are now broke courtesy of the democratic governor.

Deap

Speaking of Canadians, MSNBC which has a credibility track record of zero now reports: "A suspect who allegedly sent a poison-laced letter to President Donald Trump was taken into custody while trying to enter the United States from Canada.

The identity of the individual was not revealed, but it was reported the suspect is a Canadian woman."........


The Twisted Genius

The Swedish model is definitely worth looking at as a pandemic mitigation strategy. Even though the death rate for Sweden was far higher than her neighbors, close to the rate in the US, it was far lower than some of the dire early predictions. Her economy did take a major hit, but not to the extent of other European countries. However, a key factor in the Swedish model is prohibiting gatherings in excess of 50 people and requiring social distancing measures. That prohibition is strict and enforced through fines and possible imprisonment. Implementing such a model would be far kinder to many small businesses than a total shutdown of "non-essential" businesses who never gather close to 50 people on a good day. Those limits remain in effect in Sweden because they are meant to last for an extended period of time ( living with covid) rather than a more drastic shorter term lockdown meant to eradicate the virus.

FkDahl

For the record: Sweden now has more % of it's population foreign born than the US ever had (about 20% vs 15%). Native Swedes will with current trends be a minority in Sweden by 2050.

What could go wrong with a naive well meaning population meets millions of people without the built-in Lutheran guilt and work ethic? To make it even worse the school and social services field was opened up some 20 years ago to allow private actors, but getting paid from the tax payers. How do you spell fraud in Swedish? Last week the Overton window took a huge shift when the Swedish Police Vice Commisioner (in charge of intelligence) claimed there were some 40 foreign clans in Sweden that had infiltrated the political system and had their clansmen grifting the political and social system for them. Likely the same in social security and police.
https://spectator.us/sweden-epidemic-clan-based-crime/

Eliot

Serge,

"it's really not that hard and it pisses me off to have to share the room with people that think it is."

It violates two fundamental cultural norms.

Risk tolerance, and imposing yourself on people in a way that is impermissible.

- Eliot

gerald

Some actual numbers of death rate vs economic downturn are availablle, see:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy
selected results:

Nation .... Covid-19_Deaths/million .... GDP_decline_Q2.2020
Canada ..... 241.45 ............................... -13.5%
Sweden ..... 577.86 ................................ -8.3%
U.S ............ 552.20 ................................ -9.5%

Sweden vs U.S. looks about equal.
(Sorry if the columns don't align in the final text)
-gerald

JJackson

Re. Old man's friend. SwasonalFlu does not normally kill even in the elderly, it weakens the bodies defenses allowing a secondary bacterial infection which not all are strong enough to fight of.
The 1918 flu pandemic and some of the avain flus which cause infections in humans do cause primary pneumonia as do SARS 1 & 2.

BABAK MAKKINEJAD

FkDahl

Likewise in Germany, UK, Italy, and France.

The France of my youth is gone, regrettably - never to be seen again, I am afraid.

The ethos of Ala Al Din in the One Thousand and One Nights meeting that of Kierkegaard - indeed an interesting experiment.

We have already seen Descartes discarded in Algeria.

rho

To expand on the table posted by gerald:

Nation .... Covid-19_Deaths/million .... GDP_decline_Q2.2020
Canada ..... 241.45 ...........................-13.5%
Sweden ..... 577.86 ...........................-8.3%
U.S .........552.20 ...........................-9.5%

The large countries in Western Europe have deaths/million that are roughly on par with Sweden and the USA, while their economic declines have been much worse:

France ......477...............................-13.8%
UK ..........619...............................-20.4%
Italy........590...............................-12.4%
Spain........653...............................-18.5%

UK was the last major country to lock down, which is why their GDP Q2-2020 crash is the most pronounced compared to Q1-2020 when the UK was still open for most of the quarter.

The other G8 countries performed much better on both metrics:

Germany......112...............................-9.7%
Japan........12................................-7.8%
Russia.......133...............................-8.5%

It will be very interesting to see what happens in Sweden in Q3. The daily numbers of new infected in Sweden are stagnant, so there is no need to choke the economy even more with harsher lockdown measures that are being discussed right now in UK, France, Spain and Germany. That is the real benefit of the Swedish model, which will only become apparent in the next few months.

Eliot

Rho,

"It will be very interesting to see what happens in Sweden in Q3. The daily numbers of new infected in Sweden are stagnant, so there is no need to choke the economy even more with harsher lockdown measures that are being discussed right now in UK, France, Spain and Germany. That is the real benefit of the Swedish model, which will only become apparent in the next few months."

I suspect the restrictions simply extend the length of the epidemic, without reducing the number of deaths.

Deaths occur more slowly, but the overall total remains the same.

We can not contain the virus, and we can not perfectly protect people. Everyone will be exposed, at some point, and there are finite number of individuals, who are vulnerable to the virus, and who will die if they contract it, due to their underlying health issues.

If this is true, then the Swedish model is a vastly better option.

- Eliot

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