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22 September 2020

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eakens

Never forgive, never forget. Where have I heard that before.

Gordon reed

Yes Iran is playing a dangerous game but the US started the dangerous game

DougDiggler

Can’t say I would shed a single tear for any of the “targeted individuals” but as usual, this seems like a complete farrago. Iran has already explained the route they will take in seeking revenge: expelling the US military out of the region, not piecemeal assassination of utterly replaceable individual criminals

walrus

Perhaps assassinating Soleimani wasn’t a good idea. The Golden Rule is a pain sometimes.

Fasteddiez

There are some possibilities that I see, perhaps many more: One, Iran's leadership is selling Wolf Tickets, with the adjunct of keeping the American leadership guessing;

Two, they're going to do it, how soon?

Three, the target list proffered possibly covers hundreds of targets, and as J said all of the above will need added protection, which means a lot of job openings for professionels who do that sort of thing, which includes SIGINT, CI, etc. etc.;

Four The Iranians will get somone else to do the job, could be hazardous for the country selected, but which is the country or group that will have their false flag hoisted? It could be ISIS or the Al Nusra Front, which are financed by the Saudis and Qataris, whose onduct is approved by whom exactly? Split retributions, round up the usual Middle Eastern Christians, Hazaris,etc, put them in a bulding, paint ISIS on the roof etc.;

Five, what is it they say about certain dishes best served cold? I'm sure I am missing many possibilities, and I welcome rebuttals or additions. What does the Prez and his top generals advise on a solution? Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran comes to mind
sink their Navy blow up their Air force? The US knows what the retaliation will consist of, so I need not mention it. I'm thinking just now that the UAE and the Izzies just now agreed to militarize an island in the Persian Gulf, with the werewithal
to prevent Iran from closing the Straits of Hormuz. Maybe they want to stir things up before the election, as in getting the Trumpskin and Herr Bidendrool about throwing that military camo'ed up spanner in the works.

I don't think it matters anyways since the voting public
cares about domestic issues, now this year, now than ever.

turcopolier

walrus

IMO it was a terrible idea.

Eric Newhill

So some Islamic fundies are threatening to kill the Great Satan and/or its agents. This is new(s)?

IMO, The Iranians will continue to take their beatings like dogs. They are also barking like junkyard dogs on a chain behind a tall fence. Bark away if it makes you feel better.

Bobo

They seem to be putting the Iranian #1 and entourage in play, which is a very bad idea.

JohninMK

Fasteddiez, I think that the island you are talking about is not in the Gulf, it is Socotra island that is currently Yemeni, but which the UAE has invaded, near the Red Sea. The Israelis seem to want to put some intelligence gathering gear onto it.

Yeah, Right

Maybe I'm just too Machiavellian, but I wonder what the ulterior motive is. Because it is pretty much a given that if this is what the Iranians really are planning then they wouldn't be openly discussing it.

Perhaps the Iranians have learnt that Trump is mulling turning Soleimani-style strikes into a campaign i.e. he is considering a USA policy of drone-striking any IRGC general who steps outside of Iran.

If so then this announcement makes sense: it signifies an ambit claim from the Iranians, and now they'll sit back and see if any nibbles come their way via the Swiss (Or is that the Swedes? Can't remember).

If so, then they'll offer a horse-trade: we'll promise not to target Esper or Fat Mike (and, my, what a tempting target) if you promise not to assassinate our Generals.

If not, well, what have the Iranians lost by making this effort?

Nothing, as far as I can tell, and at least they'll know that the rumours are true.


Bill H

If I recall, we were trying to kill Hitler so that we could win the war, while Hitler's generals were trying to kill Hitler so that Germany could win the war. (Or at least not lose.) Somebody was confused about the effectiveness of killing leaders. Somebody still is.

different clue

I hadn't heard of any realistic hope or even rumor that candidate Joemala Bidarris would have wanted to bring America back into the JCPOA if they were elected. But perhaps the IRGC wants to make very sure that if elected, they can't, even if they would have wanted to.
That might explain the public threatening this close to a US presidential election.

If IRGC can do its part from Iran's end to keep Iran and America at a state of near-war while the TrumpAdmin does its part from the US end to keep Iran and America at a state of near-war, then the IRGC will prevent any further impulse to reform inside Iran for years into the future, while keeping itself as powerful ( or even more powerful) within the Iran governing system. And the IRGC will hold in check any future impulse from future US powerholders to reduce the state of near-war.

And maybe they really do want to kill some of these people, in order to stimulate the US retaliation which will keep the state of near-war going and going and going . . . like the Everready Energizer Bunny.

Serge

Fasteddiez,

ISIS has conducted multiple mass-casualty attacks against the IRGC, within Iran. Not to mention the ones without. And Eric Newhill is right on the money, the Iranians are barking again. They have yet to avenge Mughniyeh, and not for lack of trying.

Leith

FastEddieZ -

Regarding your 'selling wolf tickets comment': The Mehr News article was published one day before the 40th anniversary of the start of the Iran-Iraq War. So there is a bit of sword rattling and preaching fire and brimstone involved. And some truth in what you say.

I agree that they want to stir things up before our election.

Ditto on your "la vengeance se mange très bien froide" comment. They will want us to run in circles for awhile. (On the other hand won't that nullify or cancel the effect of stirring things up before the election?)

I do not believe they will try to pin the blame on ISIS or Al-Nusra. They will want their fingerprints on it. Deniable with no proof, but obvious to most that they were behind it.

Re the target list, the big guys are too well protected. The poor schnooks that the IRGC can feasibly whack out are going to be US businessmen or tourists in or near the Gulf; or ambassadors & staff in podunk countries far from Iran.

Which island are the Izzies and Emiratis militarizing? The only one I have heard of is Yemen's Socotra. But that is more critical to the Bab el-Mandeb strait and not Hormuz. They supposedly want Israel to build a surveillance center there to eyeball Iranian shipping arms to the Houthis.

Deap

Could this be why the Democrats all the sudden are backing off from a SCOTUS appointment fight. They know there are other plans to get their way???

Obama, Rice and ValJar want to protect their Iran legacy more than anything and it looks like Barr Durham just might bust it wide open, if indeed this was the reason Barry went snooping on Trump.

Naw, too extreme. Wacko conspiracy stuff.

morongobill

Look for waves of suicide bombers as one of Iran's options.

We blew to pieces a man deeply loved by most of their society, of course there will be Hell to pay.

j. casey

Where is "Ayatollah Mike" in all this?

Artemesia

JohninMK, Is the Bridge of the Horns project still active?

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2008/07/31/can-it-really-be-bridged

The bin Laden family was its major force, and numerous American companies represented by Madeleine Albright's consultancy were involved in planning-engineering work, but that was over a decade ago.
I've long thought that the Saudi war against Yemen involved that project.

JM Gavin

Walrus,
Did you serve in the military in Iraq and Afghanistan in the last 20 couple of decades? If memory serves you are Australian, and there were quite a few Aussies in AF and IZ. Those of us who did serve in AF and IZ tend to have a somewhat different perspective of The Golden Rule as regards the IRGC.

JMG

A. Pols

Whether the Iranians actually intend to do this, It seems like maybe they think it's fun to say it just to stir things up and make people wonder? Blowing Soleimani to bits was probably a bone headed move and sorta kinda put paid to the idea that Iraq is any more than occupied territory and I'd suppose the Iranians are pissed off about it and the idea of blowing up Pompeo and his entourage must appeal, especially if they could do it while he was visiting France or some such place....

walrus

JM Galvin,

Way too old for those wars. I have served, but only in the equivalent of the something like the national guard during the Vietnam era. By the time I was finally qualified to go to VN we were pulling our troops out.

You are entitled to your thoughts about the IRGC but we are not at war with Iran just yet. Having said that, I would have probably supported similar action against North Vietnamese, Russian and Chinese leaders when I was much younger.

Covert war by assassination is a very bad idea because two or more can play that game. Do you want your entire Government to need food tasters? Quarantine? Personal security details? How do you determine what is a genuine attack or accidental death, let alone exactly who is responsible? This stuff can get out of hand very quickly.

It also begs the question of Solemeinis future value to us alive.

We have had incidents of this crap before in Australia involving Turkish Ambassadors and aggrieved Armenians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Turkish_consulate_bombing_in_Melbourne

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Şarık_Arıyak

JM gavin

Walrus,
Sending a Hellfire through the roof of a car isn't a covert assassination. That was intentionally overt. I do not believe that striking QS in the manner we did was the best decision...but, it wasn't subtle.

That written, QS and the Quds Force/IRGC killed hundreds of Coalition troops in IZ and AF, and they weren't subtle about it, either. I had a fair amount of respect for QS, having fought him and his forces. He was a true professional. I didn't shed any tears when he died the way he lived.

I don't care if the whole of the US government needs food tasters, quarantine, PSDs, whatever. That doesn't matter to me in the least. If the politicians want war, they make war, and they can share the risks of war.


JMG

Fasteddiez

JMG

Good comment! All others, sorry about Socotra, I just knew the UAE/Israeli base was to be on an island. What is going on in Yemen is not a crime, it is an abomination, it is an attempt of mass extermination of a people of the poorest country in the Middle East. The US Government as usual, is going along with the Gulfies and the Izzies in accomplishing this goal. It is utterly sickening. Words cannot describe.

Babak makkinejad

JMG

And pray tell me what would you have the Iranians do after you declared them to be the enemies of the United States?

Funny that you mention Afghanitan where Iran was instrumental in forging that Afgan government in whose name you have been fighting there these past 19 years.

It is really grotseque the way you trashed the good will of Iran (and Russia) after 9/11 and picked needless fights with them.

And for whose benefit: Israeli war criminals? The venal Arab potentate? Or the pederasts of Afghanistan? Truer friends the United States has not had since Lafayette, I suppose.

Babak makkinejad

Fasteddiez

Yemen war, in my opinion, can best be understood as another war of choice against the Party of Ali.

In Afghanistan, all of the mosque, market, school bombings are against the Party of Ali; roughly, 50 Shia Muslims or more are murdered in Afghanistan everyday.

I am waiting for the Shia-Sunni War in Pakistan.

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