"... sleepwalking into secession"

"Then there is the possibility that federal authorities would use force to suppress secession or that violence would spontaneously erupt. Missouri, a closely divided state featuring bloody guerrilla warfare, was an outlier in 1860. If the country splits and things turn violent today, there will be many Missouris. Moreover, in most of the country, the barbarity of the Civil War was mitigated by the predominant use of regular armies following the laws of war, and by the common moral and religious underpinnings of the combatants. A modern version would look more like Bosnia than Gettysburg. 

If we were lucky, things would not devolve into open war. But terrible consequences would still follow. There would be millions of refugees flowing in both directions, though more out of the blue zones, which will be afflicted by Portland-style disorder or insufferable progressive power unconstrained by the Bill of Rights. Continental commerce would be interrupted and basic security endangered. 

The west coast would reach for international allies, and we might eventually find Chinese troops on North American soil. All of the reasons for union recited in Federalist #1-10 would come back to haunt us. And there would be other difficult issues to resolve, such as how to divide the national debt and the nation’s nuclear arsenal."  Andrew Busch

---------

"No one wanted war, but war came."

TTG thinks (or hopes) that war will not come.  I am not so sure.

Where I sit in Alexandria, I see the ties that bind in; culture, sentiment, shared history and societal goals being systematically dismantled by a majority population of newcomers and minorities.

The same thing is happening all down the I-95 corridor all the way to Richmond where the dismantling is proceeding rapidly.

This is occurring without regard to the opinions and wishes of the rest of the state. "And here's to brave Virginia, the Old Dominion state..."  No more.  No more.

This pattern of potential division is repeated on a grand scale across the country.  We are a federal republic and by that very structure we are  built for dissolution as a united country.  The UK can split along national lines; England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, but the United States is made up of 50 potential countries. Or, perhaps more if other states divide internally as Virginia might.

If such  a process of dissolution began, how would the forces of order fare?  The National Guard?  The Regular forces?  The police?  If you think you know the answer to that question, you probably do not.  pl 

https://americanmind.org/essays/sleepwalking-into-secession/

Comments

[ancientarcher]

I hope to God this doesn't come to pass.
Every country has its moment of reckoning - when they had to stand up to be counted or dissolve. The Turks had it after WWI when the young turks took back the country, the Russians had theirs in WWII. Now is the time for the United States of America. Now is the time for the patriots to stand up and save the country. If they delay, there might be nothing to save.

Find out who is supporting the rioters with knowledge, organisation and money and incarcerate them. Find out who/what is behind the media organisations that are supporting the dissolution of the country and jail them. Find out the traitors among the democrats, those who have taken money or have been induced by other means to do this, and jail them. Find out who is out to destroy the electoral process in the country and jail them. You might just find that the answers to all the above is the same entity

[Oilman2]

The Democrats, as a party, are no longer merely 'liberal' - they have gone in an altogether totalitarian direction. Witness the edicts coming from governors and mayors hiding under the Democrat banner, the blatant shuffling of money allegedly for BLM into the Biden campaign.

Likewise, the Republicans have embraced the destruction of their own with populist Trumpisms; while this chicken is in egg form at this point, it will come home to roost as a seed of destruction.

There is also a tremendous generational issue that remains unspoken - the old guys are refusing to let go within BOTH parties. This is perhaps clinging to "the devil you know" as a tactic for retaining control. In the end, the old guard must relinquish control - because they are simply too old.

Combine this with the current miasma of corruption at all levels, the amount of money flowing into the red and blue coffers and the already stated goal of 'no quarter' tacitly issued by both parties (Podesta Gambit is NOT a simulacrum, but an actual plan) - we are not looking at a peaceful transition.

The outlier here is Middle America. Many in this group want one thing - to be left alone and unsaddled by government intrusions. Things can get ugly in a hurry if either team begins to trouble those of us who wish to be left alone.

You are right Colonel; if this goes hot, it will be much worse than the last schism we went through simply due to the efficiency of weapons and tactics learned in Vietnam, along with other adventures.

Most of us do not want war, but many of us also know that if it comes you must win it or else you lose - there is no middle ground once the knives are out. History is not written by the timid.

None of us know what is coming down the pipe at this point - too many variables to even game it out effectively, as seen with the TIP attempt. I do know that should it start, the centralized nature of existing control will be the first casualty. Should mass slaughter be implemented, there will be nothing left but Balkanization for the country.

Most do not want division, but it is the gruel being fed to us from all corners - cui bono?

I hope and pray that things turn out differently, and we are happily chatting here on your blog next year. If we cannot do so, there will be some very pithy reasons for that.

[Artemesia]

This morning on C Span Washington Journal someone referred to a Joe Biden response to a question about his support for 2nd Amendment as citizens' right / ability to defend themselves against an oppressive government.
Biden ridiculed the notion that armed citizens had any power at all in the face of the massive force US military can project.

Later this morning, DefenseOne delivered this report:

YUMA PROVING GROUND, Arizona—In the 105-degree heat of the southern Arizona desert, the Army has linked together experimental drones, super guns, ground robots and satellites in a massive test of its future warfare plans.

On Wednesday, the service mounted the first demonstration of Project Convergence, bringing in some 34 fresh-out-of-the-lab technologies. The goal: to show that these weapons and tools—linked and led by artificial intelligence—can allow humans to find a target, designate it as such, and strike it — from the air, from kilometers away, using any available weapon and in a fraction of the time it takes to execute that kill today. It was an ambitious test that revealed how far Army leaders have come in their goal of networked warfare across the domains of air, land, space and cyberspace. It also provided a vivid picture of how much further the Army has to go." https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/09/inside-armys-fearless-messy-networked-warfare-experiment/168770/

A state may secede but it cannot separate, cannot distance itself from the US military's ability to kill "from kilometers away."

Tom Luongo lives in Florida which, he has argued, is a "perfect" candidate for secession: it has abundant land, water resources, ports, agriculture to self-sustain, even an Air Force!

But could The Independent Republic of Florida defend itself against robot warriors that can target Pensacola from Arizona?

[Eric Newhill]

With respect to TTG, IMO, he has apparently reached a crossroads and taken a left turn into deep La la Land.

Looking at surveys of American attitudes over the past 30 years, we can see that the Right has basically remained static in its positions regarding economics, social issues, capitalism, etc. The Left, however, has move significantly farther left. The divide between the two side of the spectrum has widened to what appears to be an irreconciable gulf. The Right is capable of live and live (e.g. fine, let two guys get married), but the Left is not. It's their way or the hi way.

What is the Left's way? Marxism. They are clear about that. No need to be propagandized to come to that conclusion. Just listen/read their own words. Actually, it's worse than Marxism because there is a racist component that labels "whites" as evil and deserving of persecution in all forms.

So compromise is not possible. Either the Left goes away or the Right goes away. My only solace is that I believe the Right would "win" handily because they have a tremendous established advantage in the men, materiel, training necessary to prevail. But it will be a massive, bloody, horrendous affair; yes Bosnia - to the 50th power.

OTOH, I sense the worm turning. Support for radicals is declining now that knee jerk virtue signalers are realizing what the radicals are truly all about. Nobody wants their "sh*t burned down" in "protest" for some cocked up sensationalized story in which they had no involvement. Nobody wants to be demonized based on skin color. Nobody wants to suffer a bad economy. The system may yet work, excepting a few municipalities or counties.

If they screw with the election, though, all bets are off.

[JM Gavin]

When the things that make us different from each other are greater than the things we have in common, remaining a unified nation is improbable.

[scott s.]

What I see is Congress is increasingly unable to accomplish anything due to divisions. The President and executive agencies attempt to circumvent through executive action. What I think would be a tipping point is if or when the other branches and people decide to defy the courts. This occurred to some degree with the fugitive slave law before the ACW but the issues now seem more wide-spread.

An aspect of civil war history research which has received increased attention lately is the extent of internal state disunion and irregular military actions. While border state partisan battles have seen treatment in the past, the new research is looking into other areas.

[A. Pols]

Colonel;
I have contemplated the prospect of breakup since the "turn of the century" and have increasingly considered it more likely. I don't presume to know how that would happen and what sort of entities would evolve as a result. Potential trigger could conceivably be unprecedented financial collapse accompanied by loss of reserve currency status. That would be a problem for the ever growing federal subsidies and grants to states and institutions. Absent central government largesse, I'd tend to think whatever glue binds the states together might shake loose, but I dunno...

[turcopolier]

Artemesia

Soldiers are not robots. the troops and their leaders would decide for themselves how much they are willing to fight or suppress those they consider their kinsmen.

[fakebot]

That article didn't cover the events of the 60s and 70s, which are more like the events of today. If anything, that era was more turbulent, but that isn't to say the union will survive as it did then.

[BABAK MAKKINEJAD]

JMG

Your post is a rationalistic theory which, in my opinion, has been historically inaccurate.

Passions & Sentiments are drivers of such historical events and not a rationalistic ledgering of what is shared and what is no longer shared.

Like this 90-year old man who was standing while all those pro-independence young men were passing by - saying: "But we are all Yugoslavs."

[Fred]

"shared history and societal goals being systematically dismantled by a majority population of newcomers and minorities."

There are tens of millions of immigrants, legal and illegal, and millions more who are recently naturalized or 1st generation citizens. What shared history and societal goal do they have? For decades we've been serandaded with "immigration is our strength", which negates the value of the foundation and all decended from founders of that time. Our tech elite are only able to operate effectively because they have tens of thousands of non-citizen visa holders doing all that work ten thousand US colleges and universities apparently can't train citizens to do for decades. (Facebook, Google, Twitter: all of which have special legal protections).

The Obama era leadership class of oligarch friendly internationalist elites have been happily denegrating America for decades as well. The civil war, publicly pronounced (but well underway beforehand) by Hilary's pronouncment of millions as "deplorables", turned violent months ago, not when the employees of The Red Hen chased a middle aged employee of the White House out of the restauraunt owned by a multi-millionaire (non-oppressive capitalist variety, like Bernie, but when New Yorker's and Washingtonian's chased varioius and sundry citizens out of shops and off public sidewalks in 2016. All to the resounding approval of the MSM and pundits of the left.

The manipulation of federal and state power we have seen exposed by the unraveling of the Russia Coup plot, the ongoing FISA revelations, and the responses from the left are just the tip of the corrupt iceberg that is ripping a hole in the fabric of society. The usurpation of power by the left utilizing the China virus as cover is purposely targeting political opponents and their (real or perceieved) supporters. Economic lockdowns, masking, disparate enforcement, tacit support for looting and rioting, all are being done in an effort to purge cities and states of the 'deplorables', or turn them into compliant serfs of the city and state.

"This is occurring without regard to the opinions and wishes of the rest of the state." That sentiment is true in many other places, but the puritan elite know they have rightousness on their side. And the oligarchs money behind them. For now.

[Eliot]

TTG,

Would it be accurate to say that you see a country that has not fundamentally changed? That current conditions are perhaps extreme, but are temporary?

My worry, which it appears others share, is that there has been a breakdown. One which could lead to catastrophe.

- Eliot

[Aurelius]

Sounds ominous. But I just don't see this happening. Perhaps I have my optimistic blinders on. But I would love to see someone (preferably possessing real world knowledge and experience) take a stab at writing an "alternative history" series about the Great Civil War of 2020. I'd buy it.

[Deap]

Sounds like you are suffering from PT-C-S - Post California Traumatic Stress syndrome in Virginia. I recognize the symptoms - the growling lack of investment in the American culture.

When overrun by millions of illegals who have no ties other than seeing the US as a wealth extraction system to exploit, who also raise children more interested in waving the Mexican flag, going to US schools whose only mission is to dismantle American history and institutions, it finally reaches a critical mass and indeed America will be lost.

You can not have 30 million plus disenfranchised individuals within your national borders, who have a 5.-6 person birth rate and recognize what used to be America from just a few decades ago.

Turning points was the 1982 SCOTUS decision mandating free K-12 for all illegals. Could a better incentive for more illegal immigration have been designed? That brought in the rise of the teachers unions, who saw this as a cash cow growth opportunity.

Free handouts for illegal border crossers who genuinely did want better futures for their children, while they sending their non-taxed illegal US earnings out of the US economy back to prop up the continued corruptions in their own home countries.

Can't not ignore this relatively recent huge population shift in legal vs illegal status when telling the recent history of this country. Past migrations were driven by those who wanted to become Americans and entered legally. This migration turns that on its head - illegal immigrations who cannot nor should become citizens.

But then what do you do with this growing illegal; and unassimilated demographic in the middle of a sovereign nation. Wait until their sheer numbers overwhelm everything? (See California)

The back door intentionally left open and sanctuary cities protecting those who flooded in who are now radically shifting the former demographics - not divided by race, color or language as much as the total lack of commitment to America's founding principles.

They are disenfranchised by law, so why should they be loyal to anything other than taking advantage of the handouts that get thrown their way. Many of them would make excellent US citizens - but until the Wall gets built, amnesty must remain off the table.

Cui bono - no not ag, not cheap labor for low skill jobs, not covert armies of Hollywood domestics ...the primary beneficiaries have been the teachers unions - the primary victims are a generation of K-12 students - both legal and illegal.

Must solve this problem starting from this mixed legal/illegal K-12 generation on up. Large numbers now who do not function in English, remain in disenfranchised illegal status, inadequately educated in anything, but free passes and participation trophies and radically demanding attitudes to either take what they want or burn it all down.

Large numbers of illegals now push out legal US residents as jobs and economics require bilingual - English-Spanish language skills or don't even bother applying for the job.

That is the worst case scenario; what is the best from this current outcome? This toxic mix of demographics is already here- where are the strong points and where are the remedies. Certainly more active GOP recruitment and identification with founding US principles is necessary. Remediation of K-12 damage is essential, and should we woven into the GOP mission.

The "alienation of youth" has an entirely different meaning today because a critical mass of youth were never immersed in the traditions of America. They are without any exposure so the traditions of America. Re-watching Blackboard Jungle (post WarII K-12 slice of life) shows similar distress and alienation - but with a strong father figure core who while beaten does not back down.

This election is pivotal.

[Mark K Logan]

A. Pols

I suggest the most likely trigger at the moment would be Trump refusing to accept any election result except that of him winning. He says he would only accept a Supreme Court verdict in the matter of his losing. Interesting times can be expected if the Supreme Court over-rides a general public perception of the election result.

This would not be for a chunk of territory IMO. It will be for the whole bag of marbles.

[JM Gavin]

A. Pols,
That's liberal-progressive DNC fantasy used to incite the gullible. If President Trump loses the election, he is no longer the President, period. He is just one man. That's all. He's not a dictator, he doesn't command the blind support of the Executive Branch.

Far too many people have allowed themselves to be consumed by an irrational fixation on Donald Trump.

JMG

[JM Gavin]

A. Pols,
I misread the last post, my response was to Mark Logan, not you.

Babak,
Perhaps...I revert to my military background, in which I risk my life for another soldier because they are an American soldier. I don't first pause to consider the intersectionality of the soldier and whether I should risk myself for someone so different than I am.

JMG

[Diana Croissant]

I believe the turmoil in this country is funded by forces that want "one world order." These forces are funding the rioters and the departments in our universities that promulgate such an idea as "one world order." They have ruined our once-great public education system. Our universities are no longer providing "higher education" but are indoctrinating students.

One world government seemed like a nice idea in the television and movie series of Star Trek. However, we Earth humans are simply not ready for that and may not be for a long time.

I was so terribly afraid of overpopulation and the prospect of having to eat "soylent green." I was afraid of The Brave New World idea of manipulating genes to produce different human types. We were seriously working on interfering with human mental capabilities--trying to improve them with such ideas as "remote viewing" or simple mind control (i.e, men who stare at goats). LSD was a tool in that attempt.

I, personally find hope in the crowds that show up for Trump's rallies. They do not burn things down. They don't shout for their state but shout "U.S.A." They may not run Wall Street or federal government agencies or national media corporations.

They "speak" American English and a crowd of them in Carolina, or in any other state where Trump holds a rally, can not really be distinguished from any other of his red-capped fans.

It's telling to me that he was never a politician. He still thinks of himself as a businessman. And that IS what is needed in a country run on capitalism.

I was very disgusted by the hippies and by the weatherman underground and the Manson family. Those were frightening. The current BLM movement is also frightening. It's as frightening as was the KKK.

Our media organizations have also gone through different stages--yellow journalism, for one example. The current media organizations are, I think, what we really need to be working on to improve our discourse. Few in these organizations--print or otherwise--follow the old "rules" of journalism. No one is punished for putting out "fake" news. At least the disgusting Joy B. has been made accountable for her disgusting remarks about a 17-year-old Catholic school kid. We need more of those lawsuits agains media organizations and media personalities.

Congress needs to follow its rules. How in the world did Adam Schiff get away with that stupid Kabuki theater he called an impeachment? An why is it taking so very long to get to the bottom of the Russia hoax--the joke of a dossier?

We don't need to overthrow our federal system of government. We need to take the time and make the effort to fix all the ways the system has gone off the rails. Somehow we need to find a way to fast-track that process. Justice needs to be swift, and that is what we need to begin to concentrate on. It won't be easy, but giving up and breaking up should not be what we choose to do.

I am praying that we hold together long enough for these current "growing pains" to pass. I count on the small business owners and the farmers and ranchers and the firemen and policemen and the National Guard---etc.---to keep our country together.

Our federal government needs to find a way to prevent foreign money from tarnishing our political process.

Right now the major Offender in my mind is George Soros. He has been fomenting this turmoil at least since the Obama campaign.

[Fred]

Mark K Logan,

That's the same line Hilary used, right up to refusing to concede then supporting the "resistance". What are you going to do when he is re-elected?

[JerseyJeffersonian]

Mark Logan,

Well, old son, the left refused to accept the genuine outcome of the last Presidential election, for going on four years now. All manner of actively seditious behavior has been their response to the "unthinkable" outcome. They have deployed lawfare to disingenuously try to make some sort of shabby case for this. They have tormented citizens with spurious prosecutions in the cause, torturing the legal system not just in that fashion, but in their constant obstructionism of leftist "stay behind" forces in the judiciary to forbid the legally elected executive from use of his powers. Their Deep State weasels within the executive branch and other agencies have done all that they can to undermine the President. It's been non-stop, this attempt to thwart a change of government.

And you want to purse your lips in disapproval at the President - and the millions of citizens who put him in office - getting just a wee bit pissed, and dubious that the forthcoming election won't be gamed and stolen? All of the prior evidence points in that direction. So what's your story?

[ked]

A minority (white male property owners) have owned the USA since its inception. I see no sign of that changing at least for the next 2 or 3 generations.
So why all the consternation?
Non property-owning white males seem insecure about their standing among the increasing number of similarly lower middle class / working non-property owners. The minority owners of the USA had best do something about their angst.
Oh, right, they are... and are beginning to get a little nervous about the plan.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/24/trump-wall-street-election-chaos-421504

[Jimmy_w]

To the emotional stresses of the extant "Left"-"Right" conflict, we mist add the fiscal: the Debt.

That the whole government system, Fed-State-Municipal, faces an unsolvable fiscal problem, there is no doubt. The problem will face a reckoning soon enough.

Secession is but a matter of time.

[Crest]

Americans who want to brawl finally have an English football hooligan style regularly scheduled excuse to try and bash each other. That's what the Portland antifa/patriot prayer etc clashes started as, starting the day after election day 2016.

With covid lockdowns, tons of people stopped having work or stopped having to go to work, and they got to join in.

It seems like the taking up the banner of moralistic social causes is great for those who want to keep scrapping.

There are other things happening, but they pale in comparison.
When lockdowns are relaxed, and people are allowed to rebuild businesses, or needed for help rebuilding other people's businesses, this will fizzle out.

[blue peacock]

All,

How would you compare the late 60s to the current period? Similarities & differences.

There were bombings, terrorism, Vietnam war protests on campuses, national guard killing a couple protestors, the civil rights campaign, assassinations of leaders..etc, etc.

Are we suffering from recency bias?

[Mark K Logan]

JM Gavin,

Just lefty noise?

Trump is the spreader of this one. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/517976-trump-says-he-would-accept-supreme-court-election-ruling-after