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06 August 2020

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upstater

I live in Onondaga County in upstate NY. The population is approximately the same as the Sarasota area. We have had approximately 2000 cases and 200 deaths. Most deaths were front loaded by Cuomo's criminal order the return positive elderly back to nursing homes. the largest single cluster outside of NYC was at a massive foreign owned sweatshop greenhouse operation employing "guest workers", housed 2 to a bed, 4 to a room. 300 positives. BTW, they pay no local taxes and get subsidized electricity.

Having said all that, people here understand that this thing can get bad by pretending "this is just the flu". Mask compliance is 100%. most significant is the county's positive rate is now below 1% and there are maybe 15 current hospitizations. Our numbers never got anywhere near Sarasota hospitalizations. Half of last week's positives were from out of state travel.

The economy here is mostly OPEN. You can go anywhere and buy anything. Gyms are closed, but you can go to a bar and drink if you buy a bag of chips or nuts. Restaurants and malls are open.

Lockdown and masks have paid off. Politicizing public health has consequences. DeSantis, Abbott and Ducey found out the hard way. Maybe Larry will learn. If not, organize herd immunity parties because you believe this is a nothing burger!

Lastly, Cuomo and DeBlasio should be thrown out for not locking down in early March. Thousands died as a result.

Mike46

Colonel:
The current number of deaths as a fraction of the population tells little about how many will die on the road to herd immunity. Why? Because only 4.9 out of 328 million (1.5% minimum) of the population) have been infected so far. This is based on confirmed cases - actual infections are several (many?) times more since there are many with no symptoms who are now immune. Which means we are likely a lot closer to the herd immunity goal.

We need to have about 70% (230 million) of the population infected to reach immunity, but we really don't know how many have been infected so far.

At first I thought these numbers would be straightforward and easy to find. They aren't. The only publicly available data I could find are some serology studies done in April with wildly varying results. As high 23% in NYC and low as 1% in Utah. A lot has changed since April.

TonyL

Colonel,

"The population of the US is 328 million. If the number of deaths so far in the US is accepted at 200K, then the national COVID-19 death rate computed against the whole population is .06%"

That is not very accurate way to evaluate the impact. There are areas that densely populated, and there are areas that are sparsely populated. So the statistics for the whole population does not describe the impact of this epidemic at all.

What we want to look at is the Excess Deaths. How the death counts for each State are different from previous several years, regardless of cause of deaths. And when we go down to County level, it's even more accurate, but the States data is enough to see the impact.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

For the whole country, there were at least 155K excess deaths from Feb 1st to July 25th. And the more densely populated some city/county in a State is, the more excess deaths. For example, New York (State) number is about 25K, California is 7K. Down the list, Kentucky number is about 300.

turcopolier

mike46

Whatever the number is it will be tiny part of the population, but I disagree with your premise. IMO the virus is widespread in the US and it has little effect on the young.

turcopolier

TonyL

It is satisfactory to me. You will like it better after the election.

Mike46

Bill Wade:
It's our first home that we purchased 40 years ago. It's not worth much in today's market and never will be - too small.

Deap

The political narrative must move from Democrat's Zombie Apocalypse to a GOP "manageable threat".

Data will be the same; but the labeling must change. Who will do this ...first? The numbers do not and never did support the ZombieApocalypse threat but someone for some agenda whipped up fear in this nation to reach that level of mob hysteria.

Or do we wait until Biden wins and suddenly "covid" instantly become a "manageable threat" and everything can go back to normal again. Thank you President Biden.

Tough call for the Democrats to make this shift to a "manageable threat" right now, because their entire game plan depends on continuing the Zombie Apocalypse threat - Biden stays in the basement, Trump can't have rallies, no debates, Durham witnesses and grand juries can't be convened.

But it would be a good idea for Trump to own the " manageable threat" expectation, even if the timing does not allow him to make the semantic shiftt right now - he can at least insert it into the dialogue as a future message of hope. He has to change the narrative and deprive Pelosi and the Democrats running with their current Trump committed mass genocide attack campaign.

Are we facing a mass genocide or a manageable threat? Who will own this dialogue. What motivated the timing ofFDR's - "You have nothing to fear but fear itself" speech? I think we are close to being in the same place.

blue peacock

"...the authorities are going to get more authoritarian..."

Bill Wade,

Absolutely! This was a test run. Nothing debated either in Congress or state legislatures and laws passed. Instead, we had state governors & county public health officials issue edicts that forced the population to stay at home and shutter businesses.

Now they can loot and plunder at a scale with no constraints. If the people get restless, then claim a pandemic or whatever "emergency du jour" and shut everything down.

Deap

Ariz Governor pushing back against Biden's basement dissing Arizona and accusing Trump of intentional mass genocide:

https://www.redstate.com/alexparker/2020/08/07/donald-trump-doug-ducey-joe-biden-get-out-of-basement/

Short and sweet. Bravo!

Deap

Our small central Calif coastal burg is seeing a rapid uptick in home sales too - you can get two homes for the price of one in the SF Bay Area. That is one way they do it - sell the over-priced one in the Bay Area (to whom?- wealthy Indian computer engineers I suppose) buy one here, and bank the difference.

Work online or retire early on the cash-out. Lots to not like about California; but once one finds a safe harbor, it can't be beat. Our safe harbor is our advanced age - some other generation will have to sort out the mess California created for itself these past 20 years, but on their time; not ours.

Fred

Upstater,

There are a few major differences bewteen Onondaga County and Sarasota County.
1. The median age in Onondaga is 39 vs 56 in Sarasota County.
2. Economy. Because the age profile is different Onondaga has 50,000 more people in the work force, I posit that means 50,000 retirees in Sarasota, which would push the age and risk profile higher.
3. Weather. It doesn't snow down in that part of Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico causes a higher humidity level year around, especially in the summer. That has a noticable affect on resperatory infections.

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/onondaga-county-ny
https://datausa.io/profile/geo/sarasota-county-fl

As to your sweatshop, "housed 2 to a bed, 4 to a room. 300 positives. "
How many died, what age were they and when? Oh, look, that was three months ago and Oh Canada! It was a Canadian firm using migrant labor, which disputes the "2 to a bed" report. What happened since then, as the paper conveniently provides no update?
https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/05/inside-green-empire-farm-upstate-nys-biggest-coronavirus-outbreak-slams-migrant-workers.html

"DeSantis,... found out the hard way." No, he refused to destroy the economy of Florida for political reasons. See the data from two links (Onondaga/Sarasota counties) and check the state level data on Covid 19 hospitalizations/deaths (state wide data) as of 8/6.
NY 89,995 and 25,190
FL 30,114 and 8,051
The data proves Desantis did a much better job than Cuomo. Though the latter certainly wasn't helped by comrade De Blasio.

Mike46

Deap You misquoted Roosevelt "You have nothing to fear but fear itself".
It's "We have nothing to fear but fear itself". Big difference in meaning, Trump probably would have used 'You' also

turcopolier

All'

The best line in the movie is Bill Murray saying "Yes, mayor, this man has no dick."

Jack
The temptation to moralize is one of the strongest human propensities. When we feel it, however, we should recognize that it stems from the same kind of reckless impatience that worsened our response to Covid-19 in the first place.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-06/moralizing-about-coronavirus-policy-doesn-t-help-stop-the-coronavirus

I believe no one really knows with any degree of precision the reality of the Wuhan virus. Lockdown and shuttering of businesses and schools by authoritarian diktat has surprisingly gone unchallenged in supposedly free societies. That says a lot about the people and how easily they can acquiesce to giving up liberty when afraid.

Yeah, Right

Jack: "Lockdown and shuttering of businesses and schools by authoritarian diktat has surprisingly gone unchallenged in supposedly free societies."

Perhaps more people than you credit take the view that the job of "government" is to "govern".

Jack: "That says a lot about the people and how easily they can acquiesce to giving up liberty when afraid."

You haven't given up any liberty whatsoever. The government is simply using authority that it has always possessed - even if seldom exercised because it has seldom been necessary.

Here is a radical thought: the government has, indeed, thought this to be necessary. And the people have "acquiesced" because they happen to agree that this is necessary.

As I said, a radical idea.... but at least it is one that credits "the people" as something more than a crowd of unthinking automatons.

Fred

Yeah, Right,

"... "the people" as something more than a crowd of unthinking automatons."

More accurately a crowd of easily cowed conformists only now beginning to awake to the systemic duplicty of the elites; Russia collusion, Ukraine Impeachment, and "Mostly Peaceful" protests not having had the complete enlightenment affect upon all the true believers yet.
"they happen to agree that this is necessary." That is hardly the case in the US.

"The government is simply using authority that it has always possessed"
The multiple state governments forbidding religous services, from Easter to today, and regulating how they can - or can not - take place have no such authority under the federal or state constitutions. They equally have no authority to declare people "non-essential".

TonyL

Fred,

"The multiple state governments forbidding religous services, from Easter to today, and regulating how they can - or can not - take place have no such authority under the federal or state constitutions. They equally have no authority to declare people "non-essential".

During a pandemic, i.e. public health emergency, the goverment do have the legal authority to do all that. As a citizen, you can disagree with their decision to enforce the law.

If and when Trump declares martial law, I will be waiting to hear your opinion about that.

Yeah, Right

Fred, this is very simple: if you consider that Federal or state - authorities are making regulations on issues that they do not have the authority to regulate then you can seek redress in the courts.

Go get 'em, tiger.

turcopolier

TonyL

I have looked at the force structure of the regular forces and the NG as well as the federal police. IMO there are not enough forces to declare martial law and enforce it across the country.

Fred

Yeah, Right,

The courts? Ask Mike Flynn how that's working out. Or all those mass incarcerated black males currently in prison.

TonyL,

"During a pandemic, i.e. public health emergency, the goverment do have the legal authority to do all that."

Where does that stem from, as restrictions on government control of religion and speach are expressly forbidden in the Constitution? I can't find declarations of "non-essential" status there either, other than the parts about slaves being 3/5ths human and American Indians not counted. Both having been amended long ago.

TonyL

Colonel,

"IMO there are not enough forces to declare martial law across the country"

I'm glad to hear that. The limitation of forces domestically would be another restraint to the dictatorial tendency the POTUS might or might not have.

I always think what make this nation an exceptional country is the US Constitution, the Freedom of Speech most of all, and the opportunities provided to a person to be what he/she aspires to be. Not the military or economic power that we have been projecting or using to supress others to become our vassals all over the world.

Mike46

RE: "Fred, this is very simple: if you consider that Federal or state - authorities are making regulations on issues that they do not have the authority to regulate then you can seek redress in the courts.

Here is the opinion of the USSC (from The National Law Review) in case you missed it:

U.S. Supreme Court Upholds California’s COVID-19 Restrictions on Religious Worship
Monday, June 1, 2020

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court denied an application for injunctive relief filed by South Bay United Pentecostal Church (Church) challenging California Governor Gavin Newsom’s Stay-At-Home order and 4-stage reopening plan as it relates to religious worship gatherings. The Church, which has between 3 and 5 services each week with 200 to 300 congregants, sought to enjoin the restrictions which limit attendance at places of worship to 25% of building capacity or a maximum of 100 people. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied the Church a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to enjoin the religious worship restrictions. A week later, the Supreme Court denied the Church’s application for injunction relief. Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, Kagan and Sotomayor voted to deny the injunction but did not write an opinion. Chief Justice Roberts concurred in denying the injunction and filed a short opinion. Justice Kavanaugh filed a dissenting opinion, which was joined by Justices Thomas and Gorsuch. Justice Alito dissented but did not write an opinion.

Chief Justice Roberts then noted that California’s guidelines “appear consistent” with the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment because “[s]imilar or more severe restrictions apply to comparable secular gatherings, including lectures, concerts, movie showings, spectator sports, and theatrical performances, where large groups of people gather in close proximity for extended periods of time.” He wrote that dissimilar activities such as operating grocery stores, banks, and laundromats, are exempted or treated more leniently. According to Chief Justice Roberts, these activities are dissimilar to religious gatherings because “people neither congregate in large groups nor remain in close proximity for extended periods.” He concluded by stating that responding to the threat of COVID-19 – an “area[] fraught with medical and scientific uncertainties” – should be left to political officials, not an unelected federal judiciary."

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/us-supreme-court-upholds-california-s-covid-19-restrictions-religious-worship

Fred

Mike46,

That's denial of an injunction, not a settlement of a case. Once again where in the constitution is that power? But I do like the ... fraught with medical and scientific uncertainties” There's less and less uncertainty every day, especially at any 'protest' beneficial to the political left. Justice Roberts has no compunction for making political decisions as an unelected judge, Obamacare being one and denying Senator Paul the ability to ask who the whistleblower was during impeachment another.

Yeah, Right

Fred, not wanting to be over-dramatic about this, but if you are going to deny the right of a goverment to "govern" and also dismiss the courts as a means of redress against a goverment that oversteps or abuses its authority then you are as much an anarchist as the antifa crowd.

Yeah, Right

Fred: "Once again where in the constitution is that power?"

Justice Roberts: ...."the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment".

It's almost as if he was talking directly to you, Fred, but you just refuse to listen.

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