« What is causing all the damage in Iran? | Main | "Are we going to make it here?" a Lebanese friend asked me. »

19 July 2020

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Fubar N Wass

Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

turcopolier

Fubar

So what?

Deap

Weekend at Bernie's is a better name for the Biden campaign.

Recent poll found 10% had no respect for our nation's Founders. 75% respect those that created our Nation and are enshrined in public monuments. The other 15% apparently said "who?"

Media is obsessed with the 10% who are the current US heritage destroyers, but it is the Silent Majority that votes. 75% of them still love America, and our Nation for which it stands .......

TV

Rasmussen was the only one who was close in 2016.

Deap

Here is what preaching to the choir sounds like in TDS Land -Central blue California: This is the row Trump has to hoe; even if he has no chance in heaven to win California- it is the worst case scenario thrown at him, so it is worth reading.

(BTW -this local area has not been hard hit at all, yet with Trump at the helm, this author turned it into the Zombie Apocalypse. What we have to put up with to get the good weather.)

https://www.noozhawk.com/article/randy_alcorn_america_needs_a_vaccine_against_stupidity_20200719

(BTW2 - pot is legal in California - perhaps he composed this piece after 4:20 in the afternoon. )

LondonBob

Not true TV, Richard Baris and Trafalgar called Michigan, Pennsylvania for Trump. Baris only got New Hampshire and Wisconsin wrong.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/06/22/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_michigan_a_dead_heat__143512.html

Still too early.

English Outsider

Colonel - On the virus and how it will affect the election, and if I’m picking it up correctly, it looks as if some are putting their money on the disease becoming less serious. I’ve seen in some places this firming up into predictions that the death rate will go down and will continue to go down.

That “death rate” is itself suspect, or subject to a lot of qualification, particularly when it comes to a comparison between countries that measure if differently - and where the underlying vulnerability to the disease varies so much from country to country. I usually see it quoted in absolute terms rather than in deaths per million. That makes the US top the charts because of its large population and many don’t stop to think further.

Even so it’s the headline rate. Since not that much is yet known about the virus, and given that no prediction can be 100% in these circumstances, we can’t be absolutely sure that the death rate will in fact continue to diminish. If it doesn’t then there’s a damned great stick to beat Trump with in the forthcoming elections.

Like most people I can’t claim to have a handle on the science behind this disease or on the best way of dealing with it. I’m not setting out to push my own picture or make my own predictions. But I’m very uneasy seeing his election riding on predictions about the future death rate from Covid in the States.

BillWade

A top Vegas odds maker says Trump in a landslide, the "whisper" vote.

Flavius

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" - the great Yogi Berra.
The only prediction that I can safely make is about myself. There are now only two viable candidates. If both are still on the ballot in November if and when I enter the booth, I will vote for Trump, period. I will not vote for a corrupt time server who is being wheeled out as the 'candidate' in a chair with puppet strings attached to his yapper by a corrupt left wing apparatus that is teetering on the edge of fascism.
However, were I to make this statement to a young upwardly mobile pollster interested in pleasing her boss, I would undoubtedly be recorded as "undecided".

Valissa

Tim Pool explains...
Liberals DEFECT To Join Trump MAGA Train, Leftists REFUSE To Believe It https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcADgDe7MmY (~11 min)
Tim considers himself center left, and he has almost decided to vote for Trump. He is now much more disgusted with the Democrats than the Republicans.

There are also 2 major successful movements geared to encouraging people to leave the Democratic party, either temporarily or permanently. The biggest one is Brandon Straka's WalkAway Movement (Brandon is gay). The other is Blexit, the Black Exit, whose main leaders are Brandon Tatum and Candace Owens. Both have huge followings on YouTube and other social media.

There is increasing support for Trump from blacks, latinos, and even LBGT folks.

The polls do not capture the incredible revulsion that so many Democrats feel for how their party has been (willingly) "captured" by the increasingly violent and intolerant far left wing and their zealous obsession with racism and anti-racism. The comment sections of all the various YouTubers I follow are chock full of statements like "I've voted Democrat all my life, but I cannot stand what the party has become. So I will be voting straight Republican ticket this election." Some still hold out hope the party will "come to its senses" but many believe that is very unlikely. Some are straight converting to conservatism or libertarianism, but many are becoming cynical independents. There is no great love for the Republican party from these people. Just the lesser of two evils.

There is very little movement in the other direction. The war loving neocons and the remaining Koch brother and their pals are now supporting the Democratic party, and a very small percentage of conservative never-Trumpers which all appear to be creatures of the Deep State or Borg.

Given all the above, plus Biden's dementia and serious lack of voter enthusiasm for him as a candidate, I really don't see how Biden can win this legitimately win this election no matter what the polls say.

There has recently been some liberal/progressive push back against the far left, but I think it's too little, too late, and too half-hearted.

Fred

Valissa,

Considering that Michigan was won by Trump by 10,000 votes I don't see St. Joe winning any of those folks over. The left's pro-BLM conduct and Green New Deal agitprop, along with house arrest for the law abiding, is losing as many voters as the left expects to gain via black turnout in SE Michigan. I expect we'll see plenty of voting issues, especially in Detroit, as CoronaChan lockdowns are reimposed in the fall by Gretchen the Great. Party loyalty amongst the union rank and file is no-where near what it was in the 90s, and given the fraud that put 4 UAW execs in jail in the last year I don't see Obama's glow as industry savior helping any, especially given that GM needed an executive order to make the highly touted ventilators or, crossing into Ohio, GM closed its Lordstown plant so they could sell it off.

The same thing was done before in '08 with a plant that eventually got shuttered by Navistar. If you work in the industry you've seen that game played bofore, this time with massive market interfering regulations on the horizon being the only thing that will make this dog bark loudly. No GND, no EV/AV market boom, and no stock based balloon for the politically connected. Those jobs, the ones Obama said were never coming back, are only coming back if tariffs on China remain; because if Joe and his nameless VP get into office, China will be happy to complete the destruction of our remaining industrial capacity by making a great deal!

JoeC100

Valissa -

Another blog I follow - as it often has some quite useful work on economic issues, has a substantial "lefty" following - most US commenters appear to have been big Bernie fans. I have been amazed by the number of recent comments stating that there is no way they would vote for Biden. None of these commenters even hint that they would vote for Trump, most saying they would write in Jill Stein or some such. But very strong statements about "not Biden"..

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

My Photo

September 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30      
Blog powered by Typepad