« "SpaceX pulls off its first double fairing catch ..." | Main | Tracing John Gleeson, a helper for Flynn Judge Emmet Sullivan, and Andrew Weissmann of the Robert Mueller group »

21 July 2020

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Fred

Blue,

No, they'll extend the 'emergency' to restructure the government at all levels by executive decree and continue to bankrupt any independent businesses that don't conform to the new order by various economic shutdowns. It will be an extinction event for the middle and upper middle classes not employed by government, multinationals, or conforming corporations.

Eric Newhill

Bobo,
You're missing the point.

Yes. I do have access to better data, much better than what the CDC has. However you don't have to trust me. 10% to 20% of the population has been infected all along. Look at the studies that were done months ago. Fairly random samples in California and New York City and a few other places INCONUS and OCONUS. They pretty much all showed 10-% to 20% of the population with the virus. I'll repeat, those studies were done months ago.

Once again, it doesn't matter how many people have the virus. What counts is *who* has the virus. If young healthy people have the virus, there is no problem. If the elderly/infirm have the virus, there are going to be some ICU admissions and deaths.

All you are seeing now is 1) More young people infected because they decided they'd had enough of the lockdowns 2) more "cases" because more people are getting tested 3) More hospitalizations because anyone in the hospital who tests positive is being called a covid admission, even if they are in the hospital for an unrelated reason; just as anyone who dies and has covid is being called a covid death, even if the person had serious and fatal underlying conditions.

There is a lot of noise in the data you are being fed.

turcopolier

Michael McCarthy

Newhill is an executive with a major health insurance company. He doesn't seem to think much of CDC data.

Eric Newhill

Michael McCarthy,
Here is a link to the CDC data.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/07172020/nchs-mortality-report.html

See for yourself - Week ending July 11, 2020 reported as of July 16, 2020, there are 1,235 deaths attributed to Covid, influenza or Pneumonia. I would say that, as things sit today, it's obvious that Rush is correct and your source is not. Did you go to the CDC, or are you repeating what someone said the CDC says. Because there is a lot of fake news out there. Also, sometimes the CDC has different figures on different pages.

Of course, I don't see the methodology for these figures at the link. Maybe the data isn't complete, maybe they have applied some factors to arrive at an estimate of what it will look like when all of the data comes in.

J

Good news!

If all the trials and research are successful, they'll be able to downgrade the virus into nothing more than a common cold. This will be WITHOUT VACCINES, they won't be necessary.

Two researchers at Hebrew University in Jerusalem along with a medical colleague of theirs here in the states have been working using a drug already approved by the FDA, a drug used in lowering cholesterol.

It's called TRICOR.

In their studies so far, when TRICOR is used against the COVID Virus, it basically takes away it's ability survive in the lungs, it starves the virus, and a starving emaciated virus whimpers into nothing more than a common cold. TRICOR robs the Virus of its needed food source -- fat in the lungs. Robbed of that fat, the virus then becomes a pipsqueak to what it once was.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8539853/Taking-cholesterol-lowering-drug-reduce-severity-coronavirus-level-common-cold.html

Deap

As of today, Nancy Pelosi wants to call this the Trump Virus. Therefore, I guess it is time for Trump to take a victory lap, having finally taken this thing down.

Bad timing, Nancy. You usually don't make forced errors but you walked into this one big time. Were you not just handing our gourmet ice cream during you own April Peak experience?

Deap

Bingo, what did you do during the height of The Great Covid War on April 15, Nancy?

....."Pelosi Shows Off Her $25,000 Refrigerators and $13 Tubs of Gourmet Ice Cream as Americans Stand in Line at Food Banks (VIDEO)
By Cristina Laila Published April 15, 2020 at 3:01pm" .......

frankie p

Colonel Lang, Thank you for that link to the COVID-19 Provisional Death Counts graph from the CDC. More interesting information that disproves the media fantasy panic-mongering.

Bobo,
I've followed the Worldometer website for days. It currently reports that the US has 1,994,723 active cases. Of these active cases, just 16,720 are serious/critical. What does that mean to you? To me, it means that well under 1% of all active cases are serious or critical. In addition, I would note that as the overall active cases increase, the number of serious/critical cases have NOT increased. When the total number of active cases was 1.6 million, the serious/critical cases were 16,000. Now with nearly 2 million active cases, the serious/critical cases have not reached 17,000. I would venture the opinion that the virus is losing virulence with generational spread, as coronaviruses are known to do. Massive testing of completely asymptomatic patients is madness.

akaPatience

I can see why they delayed Tax Day until July 15, because coinciding with Covid Peak Death Day on April 15 would be a regrettable death and taxes association.


Deap, that is a truly golden observation. And SO funny!!!

Fred

Eric,

"deaths attributed to Covid, influenza or Pneumonia"

That's one way to gin up all the deaths, mingle them all together. Just don't provide a benchmark of data from 2019 or any other prior year, and certainly don't remind people of the total number of thier fellows who die daily from all other causes.

BillWade

Some more relevant numbers:

Florida: population 21.5 million covid deaths 5206

New York: population 19.5 million covid deaths 25,048

Our Florida governor catches hell, Cuomo gets praised.

Eric Newhill

Due to insomnia induced by consuming Turkish coffee after 5 in the afternoon, I was able to navigate the poorly designed CDC webpage to find some data that supports one more of my points.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

Note that only 8.3% of covid admissions (tested positive) have no known serious underlying condition.

FYI - The "metabolic disorders" in the table would be primarily diabetes.

The elderly/infirm should be informed that they should quarantine themselves and nursing homes should be protected - and the rest of should be able to enjoy a fully open economy, educations system and travel.

Christian J. Chuba

death rate linking something from Limbaugh's site is irresistable clickbait to me
Yes the peak was in April, an atrocious 5,500 (approx from graph) but July 11 is very close to the bottom before it resumed a noticeable uptrend https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=~USA

This represents the data differently because it's hard to find graphs with the timelines you want using the exact same representation but it is comparing apples to apples by using deaths per 1M.

35% non-geezer deaths
Regarding Limbaugh's article I was surprised by the high number of below 65 yr old deaths. At peak we had 2,000 deaths of people below 65 vs 5,500 total deaths. I am using 65 by making Social Security recipients my demarcation point. Sorry if geezer offends anyone. I feel like a geezer and I am close to achieving chronological geezerhood.

By the time we catch up to the S.E. Asians in civic response we will have a vaccine.

Eric Newhill

Billwade,
And Florida's population is older. So the Cuomo v DeSantis effect is truly even of even greater magnitude.

Keith Harbaugh

BillWade made a really great point above with his NY/FL comparison.

I have two related questions;

1. Can anyone provide a reference which explains WHY NY had such a high fatality rate from COVID?
(Paging Eric Newhill)

2. Of the NY deaths from COVID, what percentage were Jewish, versus the Jewish percentage in the overall population?

My reason for asking the second question is that there were several articles in the NYT which stressed how severely Covid had affected a) Brooklyn and b) the Hasidic Jewish community.
Since the problems in New York state are being used as a Boogeyman to frighten us all, I think we deserve to know those answers.

Eric Newhill

Cristian Chuba,
Your link sources data from the European CDC, whatever that is. More importantly, there is a note on the US line on the graph that says the little "spike" you refer to is probably due to earlier deaths being added recently to the US tally. Based on that note (don't know how you missed it) it seems to me that the Euro CDC is counting deaths by the week they were added to the tally, not the week the deaths actually occurred; basically rendering the graph useless for the purpose you are trying to fit it to. As I keep saying, there is no way that anyone (even me) has access to complete and accurate deaths, hospitalizations, etc for the current week. That data must be reported and gathered and that takes time.

Also, I see where some of the other Limbaugh critics are getting their figures. It seems to be here:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Well what you are seeing in the first column (all deaths involving covid) are any deaths where the deceased had a covid diagnosis. Read the notes below the data. The notes clearly state that the first column of figures is deaths "with covid" - literally anyone who died and happened to have covid. Heart attack and had covid? Counted in the first column. Hit by a bus and had covid? Counted.

The other columns in the table are confusing. The CDC is obviously a collection of cryptic bean counters and not real analysts. They are not clear what they are trying to parse out or why, but it appears to me they are trying to show deaths with covid that were *likely* actually killed by covid because of the diagnoses and the symptoms.

Eric Newhill

Keith Harbaugh,
Other than Cuomo's evil nursing home policy, I really don't know. I might hazard a guess that there are many elderly and infirm people living in tight quarters. I don't know anything about Hasidic Jewish culture in NYC. There is probably an explanation in their lifestyle and demographics that ties in to elderly, infirm and not social distancing when elderly and infirm. Maybe they have some kind of care services for their elderly/infirm from within their own community that doesn't adhere to proper medical guidelines.

TonyL

Eric,

"The other columns in the table are confusing. The CDC is obviously a collection of cryptic bean counters and not real analysts."

I could not agree more. The way they present the data is quite confusing. So probably the best way to visualize their data is to look at the total number of Excess Deaths (regardless of the cause of deaths).

For the period of Jan 1 to July 11, the Excess Deaths is about 140K.

And also the Weekly Excess Deaths, which show the trend, has been consitently averaging about 52K for the last 5 weeks ending July 11. This Weekly Excess Deaths number is also confusing (but at least we can see the trend to be up or down).

Eric Newhill

TonyL,
I saw that data too in my insomniac state. I don't trust it either and think the CDC is misrepresenting what they are supposed to be showing, though I agree that, ideally, it is a good way to look at the situation. I have proprietary excess death data that is showing a far less severe figure.

One caveat, regardless of source, is that people are dying due to lack of medical care because care is has not been accessible because of covid restrictions. Another is suicides, drug ODs and that kind of thing. On the other side of the coin, there are fewer motor vehicles crashes, etc.

Jim

For what it's worth, check this out, by Dr. Allan S. Cunningham a retired pediatrician.

http://qplusnews.com/the-correlation-coefficient-between-covid-19-deaths-and-influenza-vaccinations-the-numbers-dont-lie

It is European data comparing proportion of those 65+ that took influenza vaccine, versus those dying from COVID-19. Death rates from May of this year; flu shots no later than 2018.

I will look at this data more closely and perhaps see if there are different age groups to compare to, and see if I can find US data too.

This data shows a fairly strong correlation between taking flu shot and getting killed by COVID-19. As always proceed with caution with any data; I am not "vouching" for this but will explore this particular aspect more.

I am intrigued by it. But proceed with caution. Linear regression has been much mis used . . . .

Jim

ked

Eric,
- Hysteria is not my thing, nor is ad hominem.
- Your statement about KNS is an ideological critique. You may be conflating medical & ideological issues. It’s going around.
- “who cares about infection rates?” Epidemiologists? btw, people die outside hospitals.

Eric Newhill

Ked,
Kaiser "data" is like Rumsfeld/Wolfowitz and team telling us about all them WMD in Iraq. They are the ones confusing ideology and medical/insurance issues.

Yes, epidemiologists. I am beginning to believe that epidemiology is some kind of dismal and largely irrelevant science. Understanding societal health situations should be left to the real pro analysists in insurance companies.

The CDC can't even seem to put together a coherent report, clearly define terminology or write up a brief with supporting facts and other evidence. Their web page is terrible to navigate and it's all bean disjointed counting with all kinds of incompletely explained caveats. That is not analysis and actionable information.

Also, they simply do not have access to the data they need to develop a clear picture of the situation. Only insurance companies have that. The lack of data is reflected in the shortcomings I note.

SomeGuy

Graph looks pretty different now. I hope for your nation's sake the instrumentation is sensitive enough that directionality is starting to reverse, but given the demographic shifts and behavioural reporting I wouldn't count on it.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

February 2021

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28            
Blog powered by Typepad