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15 July 2020


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Master Slacker wrote: "So yes, their data is usually accurate within the assumptions that must be made to generate the projections."

Yep. That is the major issue. The WHO projections of 2008/9 were dead as dead can be in 2012 in case of Germany, because the assumptions were wrong.

Or as other experts in the field of demography tell you: a prediction of immigration levles even for 5 years is tricky, to assume that you can predict 50 years or more is a stupid exercise.


The UN uses fertility just as a measure of the number of children per woman. Whether the change is caused by biological factor or culture is another matter.

Better education, and late age for first marriage, and jobs and of course the pill are well-known causes for changes in fertility but sometimes they are not always the main reason.

One can look at Iran or Tunisia to see a drop in birth rates without jobs or education being a factor.

But no matter what is reasons for the fall in fertility the demographic changes can have a huge impact when seen over many decades. We can hope that African countries go along the Iranian path and see a plunge in fertility by over 65% in two decades. Tunisia took around three decades for the same result.



Apologizing for evil isn't a good look for anyone.

Gordon R

The world has way too many people, for every added person there is a loss in biodiversity with loss of habitat, pollution and lower quality of life. Capitalism requires constant economic growth and population growth and since Europe and the US have no domestic population growth they import immigrants both legal and illegal to grow their economies with the commensurate decline in the quality of life.

English Outsider

Vegetius - maybe they didn't find they needed wheels.

English Outsider

London Bob - 60 Million?

Grey of Fallodon reckoned that the optimum population for the UK would be 8 million. Still pushing it, that many, but I reckon we could motor along quite cheerfully at something around that level.


You can blame the Central Banks on this too....

Larry Johnson

Au contraire. The lockdown in the industrial countries, which started in March, is likely to lead to a baby boom come December and January. Heterosexual couples stuck at home probably got bored and unprotected sex was rampant. I believe we have a Baby BOOM BOOM coming.

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