"Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.
Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe.
They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve.
"That is jaw-dropping," Prof Christopher Murray told me.
China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
The UK is predicted to peak at 75 million in 2063, and fall to 71 million by 2100." BBC
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"Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation showed the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 - and their study, published in the Lancet, projects it will fall below 1.7 by 2100." BBC
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Is the university department cited to be relied on? Anyone here know?
The decline in population is attributed in the study to improvements in the quality of women's lives. Well, good. The concern is that there won't be enough worker bees to take care of the old folks.
Well, maybe robots will help a lot. Or maybe old folks will be made more productive until later in life? Maybe? pl
Master Slacker wrote: "So yes, their data is usually accurate within the assumptions that must be made to generate the projections."
Yep. That is the major issue. The WHO projections of 2008/9 were dead as dead can be in 2012 in case of Germany, because the assumptions were wrong.
Or as other experts in the field of demography tell you: a prediction of immigration levles even for 5 years is tricky, to assume that you can predict 50 years or more is a stupid exercise.
Posted by: Ulenspiegel | 16 July 2020 at 11:32 AM
The UN uses fertility just as a measure of the number of children per woman. Whether the change is caused by biological factor or culture is another matter.
Better education, and late age for first marriage, and jobs and of course the pill are well-known causes for changes in fertility but sometimes they are not always the main reason.
One can look at Iran or Tunisia to see a drop in birth rates without jobs or education being a factor.
But no matter what is reasons for the fall in fertility the demographic changes can have a huge impact when seen over many decades. We can hope that African countries go along the Iranian path and see a plunge in fertility by over 65% in two decades. Tunisia took around three decades for the same result.
Posted by: Poul | 16 July 2020 at 11:56 AM
Serge,
Apologizing for evil isn't a good look for anyone.
Posted by: Fred | 16 July 2020 at 01:41 PM
The world has way too many people, for every added person there is a loss in biodiversity with loss of habitat, pollution and lower quality of life. Capitalism requires constant economic growth and population growth and since Europe and the US have no domestic population growth they import immigrants both legal and illegal to grow their economies with the commensurate decline in the quality of life.
Posted by: Gordon R | 16 July 2020 at 01:53 PM
Vegetius - maybe they didn't find they needed wheels.
Posted by: English Outsider | 16 July 2020 at 04:29 PM
London Bob - 60 Million?
Grey of Fallodon reckoned that the optimum population for the UK would be 8 million. Still pushing it, that many, but I reckon we could motor along quite cheerfully at something around that level.
Posted by: English Outsider | 16 July 2020 at 04:51 PM
You can blame the Central Banks on this too....
Posted by: eakens | 16 July 2020 at 05:01 PM
Au contraire. The lockdown in the industrial countries, which started in March, is likely to lead to a baby boom come December and January. Heterosexual couples stuck at home probably got bored and unprotected sex was rampant. I believe we have a Baby BOOM BOOM coming.
Posted by: Larry Johnson | 16 July 2020 at 09:31 PM