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02 July 2020

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Jack

David,

It would appear that the coup attempt on Trump’s presidency and the Le Affaire Epstein at best would be resolved as a limited hangout. More likely it will all be obscured.

The Horowitz report is a good example. Wray’s and the DOJ hiding of exculpatory evidence in the Flynn case is another example. We are 4 months away from the election and Barr/Durham have been “investigating” for over a year. Any indictments if they come will be latched on with typical hysteria by the media and the Democrats as well as establishment Republicans as politicization of DOJ. And it would have to be a limited hangout. The depth & breadth of the manipulation cannot be exposed. Imagine if the British, Australian, Israeli and Italian intelligence services are dragged into the sunshine along with the CIA and FBI counter-intelligence!! Imagine the implications of the plutocracy, intelligence agencies, the DOJ and the FBI are exposed as knowing and even worse abetting a pedo sex trafficking operation for decades.

It would appear that the manipulators are going to pull all the stops to defeat Trump in November. It can all be quietly buried then.

In this context what intrigues me is why Trump did not declassify all the coup materials when Devin Nunes gave him the initial list of documents and implored him to do so? That would have exposed the plot including the appointment of Mueller when it would have been important right at the beginning of his presidency. There’s something more than meets the eye here.

blue peacock

David Habakkuk and Jack,

"...this has not been the response to unexpected defeat, on either side of the Atlantic: the preferred strategy, in the best Stalinist/Maoist tradition, has been to blame ‘foreign devils.’"

And demonize the malcontents before and after the election as racist, reactionary, red-neck Deplorables. We can see with the BLM/Antifa ramp-up and the "cancellation" attempts on malcontent voices there is a move afoot to remove them from public discourse and worse to force compliance of everyone to the new orthodoxy.

Now we'll see how the forces are marshaled to get the "correct" result in the general election. My belief is that when that is achieved while they'll step up the symbolic acts it will get back to business as usual in the neoliberal agenda of even more financialization, globalization (aka offshoring) and even more market concentration and the concomitant wealth inequality.

"...what intrigues me is why Trump did not declassify all the coup materials when Devin Nunes gave him the initial list of documents and implored him to do so?....There’s something more than meets the eye here."

My speculation is that that when Trump gained office he didn't know what was going on and how to put together an administration. After Bannon was showed aside by Jared, Trump had no Machiavellian to advise him. He then relied on the same DC Swamp who had no loyalty to either him or or his agenda. Jared of course didn't get it and still doesn't get that you can't win praise from the elites no matter how much you bend your knee. In retrospect Trump's weakness in response to the frontal attack and coup on his presidency has put him in a very tough situation. Right now he has lost the ability to dominate the narrative. Of course the election is some months away and he could get his mojo back. The question is how will he hang together an administration in the face of incessant attacks. Even if he scrapes through the election, he could very well be impeached and removed from office if the Democrats win the Senate by gaining just 4 seats.

Keith Harbaugh

All:
Several have argued that Trump exhibited weakness, fecklessness, and possibly ignorance
in not declassifying and releasing at an earlier time certain documents (e.g., "all the coup materials").

There is a law in some parts of physics (Newton's Third Law)
that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
https://www.physicsclassroom.com/class/newtlaws/Lesson-4/Newton-s-Third-Law
That certainly holds true for the resistance to Trump.
If Trump had declassified those documents,
two reactions/countermeasures would have been certain:

1. Some people in the IC and DOJ would have rushed to their favorite media mouthpieces to tell them, on an anonymous basis of course, what a terrible thing Trump had just done, how it betrayed sources, methods, the rule of law, the Constitution, his oath of office, etc., etc., ad nauseum.

2. This would become the absolute number one story in the media, blared ad nauseum from the front pages to the editorial and op-ed pages.
Whatever content and implications were in the declassified documents would be lost, hidden and buried, except at Fox News.
Everywhere else the story would be that Trump had stepped in it again.

As an example of the threats that were made along this line against Trump, consider this:
"Rod Rosenstein threatened Trump that if he declassified documents it would be adding to a potential obstruction investigation and claim."
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/07/07/why-did-the-doj-declassify-and-release-the-fisa-application-on-july-21-2018/
BTW, that CTH article contains some quite important assertions by Sundance about the coup.

blue peacock

Keith,

Yes, you are spot on correct that's exactly how the "Resistance" would have acted both inside the Trump administration and outside in the media. The Democrats and the establishment Republicans would have screamed bloody murder on Rachel Maddow's show and on CNN. NY Times and WaPo would have written apocalyptic editorials.

However, that would have been countered by the damning evidence of all the documents, memos and text messages. Average Americans could see for themselves that sources & methods are just excuses for an unprecedented coup attempt by top officials in law enforcement & intelligence in a previous administration. They would also know that the real interference in the election was by the Obama White House. His support from working and middle class America would have gone through the roof. They would know that the media was an integral element of the opposition. It would have emboldened folks like Nunes, Jordan, Meadows and may even have toppled Ryan as Speaker. Maria Baritromo, Lou Dobbs & Tucker would have been all over it.

More importantly, Trump would have grounds to fire the lot. And if he had real guts to also take the fight to them, by ordering his hand-picked special prosecutor to go after the coup plotters. He would have been on offense. Not crying on Twitter for 3+ years about "witch hunts".

His response under fire showed weakness.

Keith Harbaugh

BP, I wish you were right.
That's all I am going to say.
God bless you.

David Habakkuk

‘Blue Peacock’, Keith Harbaugh,

I think there is force in what you both say.

However, although one obviously needs to learn from past mistakes, there has to be a sense in which the history is ‘water under the bridge.’

We have at the moment a somewhat bizarre situation, in that the ‘Resistance’ are, quite clearly, ‘pulling out all the stops’, to undo in November what they see as a monstrous reversal of the ‘natural’, ‘progressive’ course of historical development four years ago.

(Also, cynics might say, to obviate any danger that their ‘Brezhnevism’ might be exposed to ‘new thinking’, or the crimes to which it has naturally led be exposed.)

As to how likely they are to succeed, from the other side of the Atlantic, it seems to me that the chaotic developments of the last months generate conflicting pressures.

Obviously, ‘undecideds’ have to make up their minds as to which is the ‘lesser of two weevils.’

(The scene from ‘Master and Commander’ was new to me when our host mentioned it recently, but I think it helps.)

The insouciance about anarchy displayed by so many, both in your country and mine, reinforces my conviction that Trump, however many hopes he has disappointed, remains this.

But how confused people will ‘jump’ in November I cannot guess.

If however one does think Trump the ‘lesser weevil’, then it becomes critically important not to spend too much time discussing the past, but to concentrate on working out what the most effective strategy is in the present.

And what one needs, moreover, is not the ‘optimal’ strategy, if somehow one could ‘wave a magic wand’ and have a different kind of Republican leadership, but one that there is a realistic chance that the existing Republican leadership might adopt. (Lindsey Graham and all.)

Time is short!

Jack

David,

What do you think are the implications of this British court ruling?

https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/08/christopher-steele-alfa-dossier-lawsuit-aven-fridman/

A British judge on Wednesday ordered former British spy Christopher Steele to pay damages to two Russian bankers he accused in the infamous Trump dossier of having illicit ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The ruling, handed down by Sir Mark Warby, a justice on the High Court of England and Wales, marks Steele’s first loss in a dossier-related lawsuit.

akaPatience

I apologize if this has already been discussed here (I've quickly read all of the comments but haven't read all of the links provided), but as to why the Maxwell indictment is for such a narrow time frame 25 years ago, it's because part of Epstein's controversial 2008 plea deal in Miami was the agreement that neither he nor his co-conspirators could be prosecuted by state or federal courts for further crimes. And while Maxwell was not one of the 4 other women named as co-conspirators in that deal, it's thought by some that she considered herself shielded from prosecution as well, which may also explain why she chose to reside in the US instead of abroad where no such plea deal protection was afforded her. The current indictment's time frame may be designed to avoid any conflict with the terms of the 2008 plea deal:

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-07-03/epstein-cohorts-arrest-becomes-new-test-for-plea-deal

The obvious caveat to all of this however is that Epstein himself was indicted once again and arrested last year, SDNY evidently choosing not to honor the non-prosecution agreement (NPA) of his earlier plea deal which I presume would've been one aspect of his defense, if he would've lived.

English Outsider


David Habakkuk - yes, " in relation to Christopher Steele the incoherences of the ‘narrative’, on both sides of the Atlantic, have now become extreme."

And at the pace the enquiries into that "narrative" in the States are proceeding those "incoherences" might well remain just that.

leith

I agree with Patience regarding the plea deal having a bearing on the 25 year old timeframe in Ghislaine's indictment. However I also think they are focusing on a New York public official since this case is being prosecuted by the SDNY Public Corruption unit.

So who are they going after is the question. Mario Cuomo, the current governor's father, was NY governor up until 31 December 1994, which fits the time frame. George Pataki was NY governor from 1 January 1995 until 2001, so he fits the time frame also. Rudy Giuliani was Mayor of NY City from 1 January 1994 thru 31 December 2001 so he fits also. She has been photographed with Michael Bloomberg but he was not Mayor until 2001. Of course they could be going after smaller fish, lots of candidates in both parties.

Jack

David

While it has been perplexing why Trump didn’t declassify considering Devin Nunes gave him the initial list, I agree with you that it is water under the bridge.

As far as the election is concerned I believe it is too early to game. Usually the campaign really gets going after the conventions. This time who knows if there will be one. Additionally I don’t see Biden showing up to any debates. If there are any it could all be virtual which would benefit him.

This election the Senate will be very important as the Republicans are defending 23 while the Democrats only 12. They only need a 4 seat gain to have the majority. And there are several races like Arizona and North Carolina that could be toss ups that favor the Democrats.

The pivotal states for the presidential election will be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and this year possibly Arizona. A small number of voters will determine whether Trump or Biden gain the majority in those states.

I can see the possibility of Trump being re-elected but I think it will be hard for the Republicans to hold the majority in the Senate. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats win it all. If that happens then I’m willing to bet that we’ll get back to the neoliberal policies and add symbolic woke policies that will be popular with the urban/coastal folks. A Biden presidency would be Obama’s third term as he will be the shadow president. If Kamala Harris is nominated to be Biden’s running mate that will confirm that Obama is kingmaker in the Democratic Party.

Deap

Two Trumps:

1. the Trump under incessant attack from day one; that you now dismiss as "weak".

2. The Trump who has been attacking from day one; regardless of the relentless onslaught from the media and the Democrats. That Teflon Trump remains strong.

If you can't see Trump Two, against all odds, has been incredibly strong and fundamentally changed this country in the right direction, I hope you come to your senses by election day.

Don't stay home; but do consider a new branding for the one person who can still keep draining the swamp. Recent court decisions and reigning in the Ninth Circuit is reward enough for this very strong President.

Don't demand courage from someone outside yourself. Show courage by staying the course, in face of this stupendous effort to take Trump down. He does not need a Machiavelli in his entourage, because Trump now understands the inside game. Anyone willing to cut the son-in-law of his own beloved daughter has gotten the message.

He is now seasoned; but whether he wants to keep playing the game may well be the October surprise. We lose, if we lose Trump. He has earned his stars and scars. This is no time to walk out on him.


akaPatience

leith, I may be wrong but I don't think a defendant necessarily has to be a New York public official in order to be tried in the Southern District of New York (SDNY) court.

For example, John Mitchell was tried in the SDNY court for Watergate-related crimes allegedly committed while serving as Attorney General for the Nixon Administration (he was acquitted).

SO, it's anyone's guess at this point who the other targets may be in the Maxwell case. That it's been assigned to SDNY's Public Corruption Unit instead of the Sex Crimes Unit is certainly one of THE most intriguing aspects of it all, no doubt about it.

Eric Newhill

Jack,
It's just gonna be war no matter how the election shakes out. The election and that whole system is moot at this point. You're discussing a failed and dead paradigm. But feel free to keep painting lipstick on a dead pig if you want to.

Keith Harbaugh

We must be aware that the claim was posed (by DOJ!) that
"declassification = obstruction (of justice)"
See
"DOJ Ties a Trump FISA Release to Obstruction"
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2018/10/26/doj_ties_a_trump_fisa_release_to_obstruction.html
In that article, note in particular:

-----

In court filings last week the Department of Justice deployed what could be the nuclear option in its latest effort to prevent President Trump from declassifying information regarding FISA warrants used to spy on his campaign aide Carter Page: It is claiming that such a move would interfere with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.

This is the first time the DOJ has explicitly made this argument implying personal peril for the president, since interference could open Trump to charges of obstruction of justice. Until now, the department has argued that declassifying the documents threatened national security.

...

"The obstruction trap was built into the special counsel," a congressional investigator told RCI, speaking, like the two other sources in this article, only on condition of anonymity.  “If Trump fires Mueller, or Rosenstein, or declassifies documents [embarrassing to the FBI] it’s likely to bring an obstruction charge.”

And that would mean double jeopardy for Trump. “Obstruction is the instrument the Democrats are likely to use to impeach Trump if they win the House,” said the congressional source.

The upshot is that the president will likely hold off on declassification ..."

-------

J

Harris's Wiki page has been scrubbed of information critical of her.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/battle-over-kamala-harris-wiki-page

blue peacock

Keith,

He got impeached anyway!

Leith

Patience -

True what you say about Mitchell's prosecution by SDNY. But if I recall correctly that happened a few years after he had retired as AG and was back living in NY City. And didn't that have something to do with Mitchell interfering with an investigation into NYSE fraudster Vesco?

Keith Harbaugh

To BP: You may be 100% right.
A lot depends on what is actually in those documents.
Something I don't know.
I just have deep concerns about the power of the media (our Ministry of Truth) to mold men's minds.
As I hopefully implied above, I hope you are right about what would happen.

To general readers:
On the assignment of this case to the SDNY Public Corruption Unit,
if the goal is merely to obtain justice for the then-underage female victims, that seems inappropriate.
The Sex Crimes Unit would have the expertise and experience for that notion of victimhood.
No, assigning it to Public Corruption suggests SDNY sees the larger body politic as having been victimized.
I just hope they don't squeeze Ghislaine in order to get her to implicate Trump in something.
Recall Flynn said his C&B lawyers told him it would be to his advantage if he could implicate Trump in something.
See specifically paragraph 16 in Flynn's declaration:
https://www.sidneypowell.com/s/Mike-Declaration-1292020.pdf
Who can doubt the SDNY attorneys, at some level, have the same goal?

akaPatience

Well Leith, you may be correct that NY residency is a criteria for cases being brought to the SDNY court, but if so, there's a glaring omission in your previous list of possible targets: you forgot about former POTUS and Sec'y. of State Bill and Hillary Clinton, residents of Chappaqua, NY.

It may be merely a coincidence, and it may be totally irrelevant, but the timing of Epstein's controversial 2008 plea deal (that included the NPA, and which was negotiated for the most part in 2007), corresponds with Hillary Clinton's first campaign for POTUS.

Could there be issues related to the Clinton Foundation/Clinton Global Initiative that are of interest to the SDNY Public Corruption Unit?

Keith Harbaugh

David Habakkuk, you mention the Alfa case in remarks above.
Perhaps you or others might find this rather extensive discussion of that case by Margot Cleveland of interest:
https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/10/christopher-steele-court-case-exposes-shady-new-spygate-dirt/

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