« “Russia offered bounties to Afghan militants to kill US troops” - TTG | Main | A Coupla Things - 29 June 2020 »

28 June 2020

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Eric Newhill

From what I can see from reading methodology sections, the polls are suffering from the same flaws they did in 2016, only worse this year. Sampling errors are atrocious and skewed against Trump. Also, a significant proportion of Trump supporters are deliberately giving goofy answers to the pollsters, if they answer the call at all. It's more having fun sticking it to the elites. It's a thing that is discussed among Trump supporters across the country.

If Biden can't avoid debates with Trump, he's toast. If he does avoid debate, he's perceived as what he is; a debilitated old man that can't think and he's toast.

One of the Democrats strategies is to offer a calm four years after the chaos of the Trump years (chaos that the democrats themselves created). However, they are vulnerable to the likelihood of a senile President Biden dying or being removed under the 25A and then a transition of power to his VP. So Biden does not offer a promise of normalcy - and that is obvious to many and will increasingly be so.

Barbara Ann

Even if poor Joe was in a vegetative state, I truly believe that the TDS-afflicted masses would enthusiastically vote for him, if it means the ouster of the Orange Devil in the WH. To borrow a line used by Cpl. Musgrave in Ken Burns' VN series; their hatred is pure.

ace

It should be obvious now that you're not electing Joe, you're electing whomever ends up as his VP. It's even possible that the DNC will end the farce after the convention and before the election. Otherwise, nature will have to take its' course.


CK

Speaking only for myself, I get 3 to 5 calls a week from polling firms wanting "a few moments of my valuable time to answer some important questions about something." I am always polite, I ask how much they are paying me per minute for my valuable time. The answer is always a number identical to zero. Now it becomes a matter of what is nothing worth. The truth is always worth something so I see no reason to tell them whatever my truth might be. But my time is indeed worth something so in answering I am tithing my valuable time to them for nothing in return but upon which they will generate value to themselves.
It is indeed a quandary: tell them the my truth, sting them some bs for my own amusement, hang up?
I am merely human and am not consistent in my actions regarding these vermin. I am satisfied that the results of their polls are at least as accurate as the covid simulations.

BillWade

From The Villages in Florida (this place also has the highest STD rate in the state):

https://twitter.com/i/status/1276965068048158720

Bad language alert!!!!

turcopolier

james

Yes. It is so unlike Canada in that way. that was irony.

jerseycityjoan

This is a tough one. I think anybody in public life today goes around with a head full of figures and it's incredibly easy to say millions when you should have said thousands. His history of stammering doesn't help. But when does being "gaffe prone" slip into something else? I do not know. I have my reservations about him and am still shocked about he went from losing to winning all because of South Carolina.

For what it is worth his doctor gave him a clean bill of health in December. Did that exam include a mental status screening? I wish I knew.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/12/17/789039741/joe-biden-is-healthy-and-vigorous-according-to-doctor-s-report

It is clear to me that Trump has some kind of diagnosable mental condition. Will that stop me from voting for him due to immigration again? No.

We had several elderly candidates this time and we've had Trump with his compulsions. Should we require presidential candidates to undergo health exams that include mental health screenings? Should we have started doing that after Reagan got his dementia diagnosis? It's certainly something to think about. The fate of the world is in the president's hands every day. We should not be afraid of making sure the president is up to the job.

jerseycityjoan

This is a tough one. I think anybody in public life today goes around with a head full of figures and it's incredibly easy to say millions when you should have said thousands. His history of stammering doesn't help. But when does being "gaffe prone" slip into something else? I do not know. I have my reservations about him and am still shocked about he went from losing to winning all because of South Carolina.

For what it is worth his doctor gave him a clean bill of health in December. Did that exam include a mental status screening? I wish I knew.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/12/17/789039741/joe-biden-is-healthy-and-vigorous-according-to-doctor-s-report

It is clear to me that Trump has some kind of diagnosable mental condition. Will that stop me from voting for him due to immigration again? No.

We had several elderly candidates this time and we've had Trump with his compulsions. Should we require presidential candidates to undergo health exams that include mental health screenings? Should we have started doing that after Reagan got his dementia diagnosis? It's certainly something to think about. The fate of the world is in the president's hands every day. We should not be afraid of making sure the president is up to the job.

turcopolier

jerseycityjoan

Biden has done this kind of thing repeatedly. I just picked out two of the best. Trump? An egomaniac? Is that a mental illness?

David Solomon

Colonel, My only concern about this posting is that I do not think Trump is anymore competent than Biden. What a world.

BillWade

The numbers are getting bigger:

https://youtu.be/_GYyt3ChLDI

Horace

"They dislike Trump that much?"

I think it is visceral fear. He is a catalyst for noticing, accelerating a process that was already underway. The foundations of their rule are being delegitimized before their eyes. We have a fake democracy where the same people own both parties which are two corporations in a cartel.

Huge numbers of Republican voters (weighted towards the politically active) are no longer buying what Republican-flavored globalists are selling. The Democratic Party was transformed from being the protector of the American working class into a coalition of anti-white communists and foreign invaders funded and managed by corrupt and degenerate totalitarian oligarchs. The majority of the Democrat coalition of the fringes are keenly aware of who both funds their party and makes all the civilizational decisions and BITTERLY resents it. Nancy Pelosi barely turned back their latest challenge and had to burn an enormous amount of political capital to do so. They will try again because they know the clock of the old white people is running out and eventually they WILL succeed. Demography is destiny. The coalition members hate each other almost as much as they hate us. Who will replace Pelosi when she is gone?

These processes were well underway generations before Pres. Trump came onto the scene, but frightened and angry people rarely show good judgement so they demonize him like some totem that if they could just destroy, then everything will go back to the way they want.

The root of the problem is the cultural mutation of our ruling class thinking that they have a right to planetary cheap labor over ALL else. That is how we got plantations filled with African slaves, who then were replaced with Mexicans. Now replacing all of us with anyone from anywhere other than Europe is considered a virtue endlessly repeated by the marxists who now have almost a monopoly on the production of cultural products. Our ruling elites, who are neither elite nor ours anymore, had the best working class in human history, the most respectful of property rights, the most resistant to communist indoctrination and they have replaced us with those who will destroy them at the same time that they have severed any meaningful bonds with those who used to be their people.

Yes, they are afraid. They should be. Imperial elites who fail at the faction-balancing game necessary to govern subject nations vanish from the pages of time.

jerseycityjoan

Colonel,

Yes, I know Biden has a long history of saying the wrong thing. I never wanted to vote for him and unless Trump does something truly beyond the pale I will vote for him again. But I don't feel sure he has dementia.

As for Trump I am not sure what his problem is but I think it would rise to the level of an official diagnosis. That would be true of tens of millions of Americans. I myself cannot imagine having to deal with a mind like his every day but thank God I don't have to. He should not have the nuclear football either.

To echo other comments, I also have to wonder how we got stuck with these two choices. With opinions so divided on many issues and so much discontent and desire for change and disgust with politicians, I think we will continue to have a mixed bag selection of candidates. We should think more about who will have the football when we pick people.

JamesT

I look forward to Biden becoming president so that I don't have to listen to my college educated white friends blame everything on Trump.

Tierce

As an Army veteran (19A) of Iraq and Afghanistan, and current Federal LEO, I loathed Hillary and wrote in Bernie in 2016 (and was sympathetic to some of what Trump talked about, like getting tough on immigration, both legal and illegal). But now, although I agree that Biden is basically senile and I hate woke, identity politics, statues of Lincoln and Washington being torn down, and the institutional Democratic Party, I am prepared to vote for him.

I truly believe Trump has no conception of the national interest, and is solely motivated by personal corruption and narcissism (orders of magnitude more than normal politicians, who I think usually at least start out with some idealism and principles).

I've read and admired your blog for about 10 years, particularly on the Middle East, but I think you're minimizing the importance of the fact that Trump has routinely been talked out of his ideas (or more often his advisors have simply ignored him until he forgets about it). A second term Trump, surrounded by yes-men more corrupt and venal than Washington has seen in modern history, seems much more likely to actually unleash "fire and fury" than just tweet about it, particularly when he realizes how much America is now scorned and pitied around the world. The Pelosi or AOC wings of the Democratic Party, whichever ends up running things while Biden snoozes and stammers, simply does not have the balls to launch a nuclear strike, whether first or retaliatory.

Flavius

The last Presidential election cycle has offered too many reasons to regard Biden-Trump polling as anything more than propaganda. At the bottom end, the data collecting cubicle dweller is almost certainly a political partisan; the polling company he or she works for (and is paid by) is also very likely partisan; the MSM outlet and commisioner of the poll is almost certainly partisan; finally, there is no downside to being wrong because all the players recognize they are engaged in a propaganda operation - they are paying for chocolate, we give them chocolate.
Four months out from the election, I sense that the enthusiasm for Biden is anemic. I live in a very liberal town that voted 93-7 for Clinton. There are hundreds of lawn signs all over the town in support of blm and lgbt. To date, I count less than 5 Biden signs. There are more Bernie signs left on people's lawns.
The Biden polling propaganda in places where voting is competetive could very well cost Biden if the voter who is voting is voting only to get Trump out. If Trump appears to be out anyway, who would forego the ability to claim that he did not vote for the weekend at bernie's president when the enormity of who the country has put in the WH becomes clear.

turcopolier

tierce

OK I put you down for being willing to risk it.

Yeah, Right

I agree 100%. It is one thing to suffer from a slip of the tongue when reciting your lines. It is quite another not to immediately notice - and therefore immediately correct - a slip-up as preposterous as that.

turcopolier

teirce

"I think you're minimizing the importance of the fact that Trump has routinely been talked out of his ideas (or more often his advisors have simply ignored him until he forgets about it)." No. I think he is a weak man but to quote Captain Jack Aubrey, he is "the lesser of two weevils."

JJackson

I assume Biden misspoke and meant 120,000. Should Trump have the Football? He has also come out with some crazy statements. To stand up in the middle of pandemic and claim some unproven drug is a cure without any basis is highly irresponsible, at the least. He should team up with the President of Mozambique who has a herbal remedy that cures COVID, they can compare notes. It smacks of a dangerous tendency to unfounded self belief. We have to just hope he does not decide he 'knows' China is going to launch a preemptive strike to follow up its Bio-weapon attack.

turcopolier

jjackson

Ah, your rice bowl is threatened! You did not mention Biden's statement that 150 million US have died from gun violence since 2007. Want me to provide more examples of his dementia? OK. I will.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

This is reality. I am a year younger than Joe Biden. I agree with anyone who says I am too old to be President. It took a couple of tries before I remembered to turn on the coffee maker today. It is not only age. He was pointman in Ukraine and the restart of the Cold War with Russia. No indication of how he would treat the greater depression and coronavirus pandemic any different than Donald Trump. Any of these three crises, unless addressed, will destroy America. They are the very definition of existential threats (not to mention climate change). No acknowledgement that restoration of constitutional democracy is the only way to avoid the succession of states. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are already quarantining for 14 days travelers from coronavirus hot-spot states.

Barbara Ann

Ah, I did enjoy Captain Aubrey's sense of humor. Darn fine movie, one of the best.


Tierce

Out of interest, how far gone would Biden have to be for you not to vote for him? Personally, I do not wish to see a scenario where a President Biden is presented with attack options calibrated in Strangelovian megadeaths and mistakenly comprehends casualty rates in the mere thousands.

Also, while I agree with you re narcissism being a motivational factor for Trump, I do not see evidence that corruption is also one. Are you able to cite examples of Trump's corruption?

turcopolier

teirce

"19A in Iraq? Prove it to me.

FakeBot

We'll have to wait until the debates, when Biden will have to come out of from hiding and do more than read or tweet prepared statements. Every time he's forced to think on his feet, he comes across like someone who drinks too many diet cokes.

The problem is Biden can afford to hide because Trump has not done himself many favors with some of his statements.

Part of me wishes the president would get rid of Pence, name Rand Paul as his running mate, and then declare he won't seek reelection. That would give Paul the nomination and Trump can go back to his golf course. If only.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

My Photo

November 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30          
Blog powered by Typepad