Fauci vs Atlas and Ioannides. Who will wear the dunce cap?

"The basis of reassuring the public about re-entry is repeating the facts about the threat and who it targets. By now, studies from Europe and the U.S. all suggest that the overall fatality rate is far lower than early estimates. And we know who to protect, because this disease – by the evidence – is not equally dangerous across the population. In Michigan’s Oakland County, 75 percent of deaths were in those over 70 years old; 91 percent were in people over 60, similar to what was noted in New York. And younger, healthier people have virtually zero risk of death and little risk of serious disease; as I have noted before, under one percent of New York City’s hospitalizations have been patients under 18 years of age, and less than one percent of deaths at any age are in the absence of underlying conditions.

Here are specific and logical steps to end the lockdown and safely restore normal life:

First, let’s finally focus on protection for the most vulnerable — that means nursing home patients, who are already living under controlled access. This would include strictly regulating all who enter and care for nursing home members by requiring testing and protective masks for all who interact with these highly vulnerable people. Specifically, nursing home workers should be tested for COVID-19 antibodies, and if negative, for virus to exclude infection, to ensure safety of senior residents. No COVID-19-positive patient can resume residence until definitively cleared by testing.

We should continue to inform the public about what they have already successfully learned regarding the at-risk group. That means issuing rational guidelines advising the highest standards of hygiene and appropriate social distancing while interacting with elderly friends and family members at risk, including those with diabetes, obesity and other chronic conditions.

Second, those with mild symptoms of the illness should strictly self-isolate for two weeks. It’s not urgent to test them — simply assume they have the infection. That includes confinement at home, having the highest concern for sanitization and wearing protective masks when others in their homes enter the same room."  Dr. Scott Atlas in The Hill

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It should be mentioned that Dr. John Ioannides, a leading epidemiologist at Stanford agrees with Dr. Atlas.

I saw Atlas on a news program a day or so ago.  The anchor looked frightened by what Atlas was saying.  This is understandable.  The COVID panic is now so deeply embedded and pervasive that to question the rationale for the shut-down of the economy is equivalent to heresy in a theocratic state.

IMO the road back economically is going to be slow and difficult.  I hope I am wrong.  pl 

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/495833-how-to-open-society-using-medical-science-and-logic?fbclid=IwAR2nEYTdayVhhU47mmrIZ9FawIw9M6I2yTtOAyKhNvv0wLdSv_R4Xw6vhFI

Comments

[Diana Croissant]

I hope you are wrong, too. I am tired of the drama and hysteria.

Still, I do want the investigations into China's culpability for the
result of their "accident" or of their planned upheaval of the rest of the world.

I just want to trust some designated "expert" to tell us when when we can put away the masks and can take up hugging our friends and shaking hands while smiling and meeting new acquaintances. What is a church service without that and all the stories of Christs care and concern for the "untouchables" of the world?

[J]

Colonel,

Beijing is getting very nervous. Take a look at Reuter's report:

Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-sentiment-ex/exclusive-internal-chinese-report-warns-beijing-faces-tiananmen-like-global-backlash-over-virus-idUSKBN22G19C

Seems the CCP's MSS's think-tank CICR compiled an Intelligence Report of their own warning of possible armed conflict with U.S..

IMO it's hoped that our IC will realize that this virus doesn't jump ship into the human sphere on its own naturally without 'human tweaking in a lab' which then provides a bridge from which the virus could go from bats to the human sphere. And why would the CCP/MSS play such a dangerous game? -- Bio-weapons R&D.

[Eric Newhill]

There can be little doubt that the fascist/socialist/anti-Trump elements in this country have seized upon the presence of the virus to attempt to destroy Trump's chances in November and to bring about greater state control of citizens. This immediately after the lame impeachment plot failed to remove Trump; which was right after the lame Russian collusion plot failed to remove Trump.

I don't think it's paranoid to consider that China released the virus on the US at a time when President Trump is engaging in a major trade war with the Chinese, as a tactic in fighting that war.

The Ionides/Atlas clinical perspective has been known to be correct - based on data - since March, yet the Democrat controlled states continue to double down on state control of their populations and destruction of their economies.

The Left has become a collection of kamikazes. The elites can ride this out. They have money. They are hoping that when the economy is in ashes, all of the starving little people will come into their open arms.

In 1968 another Asian virus, known as the Hong Kong flu, arrived in the US. It began killing Americans noticeably in 1969. As this was occurring, the Woodstock music festival was planned. The festival went off with now famous record crowd numbers during the peak of the virus. No one seemed to care. That virus ultimately killed 100,000 Americans (not Woodstock attendees); more than covid, even if you believe the artificially inflated covid figures. That was at a time when the population of the US was far less. So a far greater % died than covid.

We've been here before folks. It's the reaction that is different this time. The reaction is driven by internal and external political objectives of massive importance for our future as a free society.

Free people need to be able to make these decisions on their own. Give them clear information and let them decide their next move. Keep the government "experts" out of the decision making process. I believe that as the weather improves and the economic hardship increases, Americans will turn on the fascist/socialist elites and take their lives back. The vulnerable and the cowards will self-isolate. I further believe Americans will do what they need to to get the economy going again, buying American made only, patronizing small businesses beyond what they normally would and voting for pro-American candidates (i.e. the Democrats lose big time).

[Deap]

What should we be doing every "flu season"?

What have we done every flu season that has resulted in very similar numbers and population groups affected. How, in fact, is this one materially different.

[Barbara Ann]

Mnuchin said today that it is too early to say whether international travel will open back up before the end of the year. Coincidentally, I also came across a Twitter poll of 15,000 people with the the following question & results:

"Hypothetically, if everything opens up tomorrow when would you fly again?"

- Immediately 25%
- 2-3 months 20%
- 3-6 months 26%
- 1 year or more 29%

Hardly scientific and I've no idea of the demographic or geographic spread of respondents, but it seems pretty clear many people remain fearful.

https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1257097868919406594

[David Solomon]

Colonel Lang, As to economic recovery I suggest listening to this podcast with Nouriel Roubini.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-05-03/nouriel-roubini-sees-a-bad-recovery-and-a-depression-podcast

[TV]

The Democrat-media hysteria HAS been deeply ingrained.
The mass of people have - not surprisingly - turned out to be lambs (baby sheep).
Each person is responsible for managing their own life - which includes risk.
Unfortunately, the population of lambs has been trained over the years to look for mommy government to manage their risk - mandatory seat belt laws come to mind.
Ben Franklin said it succinctly:
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

[PJ20]

There is widespread criticism of Ioannides two Covid studies, including the use of an unapproved antibody tests which is known to give false positives; statistical flaws, and recruiting volunteers for the sampling via Facebook, as well as the wife of a study co-author to call and recruit parents from her kids school.

Here is an excerpt from an article on the controversy.

"“My quick take is that something really odd is going on with Ioannidis,” wrote Alexander Rubinsteyn, a geneticist and computational biologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, in an email to Undark. Rubinsteyn suggested that Ioannidis may simply be “so attached to being the iconoclast that defies conventional wisdom that he’s unintentionally doing horrible science.”

He added: “Pretty much no one with statistical acumen believes these studies.”"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford

[Patrick Armstrong]

Here's who Ioannidis is https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/308269/

[JJackson]

In areas where the health system is not under stress this makes perfect sense. I would give the hugging, handshaking and church services a miss and maintain the social distancing at work and when out of the house as far as is practical. It needs to be done with lots of testing, contact tracing and case isolation. Knowledge and common sense on everyone's part will work. Limited local shutdown may be needed if cases start climbing in some areas.

[BillWade]

Our restaurants open today in most of Florida. In spite of needing our hair attended to, we will eat out both lunch and dinner. Sadly, some of our restaurants are closing for good. My wife tells me that local Facebook is about evenly divided about going out now. I don't get it as these folks have been gathering in the supermarkets the whole time.

[turcopolier]

All

Explain to me what anti-body testing does for us as a population other than allow mapping the extent of infection.

[Eric Newhill]

PJ20,
Except the results of the Ionides study have been replicated several times now elsewhere in the country, including NYC.

[AK]

Diana Croissant,

"I just want to trust some designated 'expert' to tell us when when we can put away the masks and can take up hugging our friends and shaking hands while smiling and meeting new acquaintances. What is a church service without that and all the stories of Christs care and concern for the 'untouchables' of the world?"

I think that "expert" you seek is going to have to be the person you see in the mirror every morning. The "designated experts" have no interest in encouraging you to go back to living a life you love. As Eric Newhill stated, it's going to be up to free-thinking adults to make those decisions for themselves. If you expect or hope for "experts" to protect you from yourself, then you have too much faith in "experts" and in government. Take sensible precautions as they relate to your own risk demographic and respect other people making those choices for themselves. Otherwise let's all get on living like Americans.

[ST Harris]

Even in blissful 'pre rona' December the Fed's repo market had been sounding the alarms that a serious bubble recession was coming. Nothing apparently was fixed from the last wall street megadooshbaggery meltdown. See:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/wells-fargo-joins-chase-in-halting-helocs/

This means that even those who built up real estate equity will have a difficult time short term liquifying that equity, which means that Chase, Wells Fargo, et al have a lot of pessimism about the US real estate market, the thing they have made so much money on last few years, and which they were supposed to have fixed.

well pilgrims ;) not only is the economy enduring sudden searing pandemic pain, it is also feeling the beginning of a big bubble popping recession, which everybody in the financial world was already freaking about well before the rona arrived. Perhaps endless Fed QE can prop up equities markets through November, perhaps, but then it's all bets off into 2021 as numerous wall street debts scams will have to be deleveraged.

[Eric Newhill]

Sir,
In the spirit of fairness, anti-body testing would allow scientists to identify who has the anti-bodies and then track them to see if they become re-infected and, if so, at what level of severity. That would shed light on the "herd immunity" theory (i.e. is there such a thing and, if so, to what extent?).

Otherwise, calls for "universal testing" are just sound bites born of confusion and panic, at best; another means of violating the rights of Americans at worst (e.g. making people wear yellow stars, carrying papers that allow them to enjoy full or truncated societal "privelges").

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

Widespread antibody testing will show covid-19 is more contagious than a lot of diseases, but not not near as deadly as most people think. People will see they had it, didn't even know it and are now immune to it at least in the near term. Fear will be deflated. We will then have a known large segment of the population known to not capable of further spreading the virus and a ready supply of antibody serum as an effective treatment for those who do get infected. That will also diminish fear.

Covid-19 and our response to it is as much a political issue as it is a public health issue. Trump was going to run on a booming economy. If he wants to get back to that strategy, he has to banish the fear of the virus. That will get everyone back to work so they can eat and pay rent, as well as continue to piss away their money on crap they don't need. Our economy depends on all that. If Trump is smart, he best get to stepping and institute a nationwide antibody testing program.

[Eric Newhill]

And Fauci has already been awarded the dunce cap with his 1980s assertion that HIV was going kill us all. So I guess for his most recent action he gets the dunce cap with slide rule cluster.

[Deap]

A cruise passenger interests website offered another informal poll - are you willing to cruise again: 64% said as much as in the past; 10% said they would cruise even more to help get the industry back on its feet. Therefore, in this obviously interested sample, 75% want the cruise industry to start up again. Yesterday. 25% will choose to wait or not cruise again.

The cruise industry passenger base remains willing and loyal. In fact they are probably better trained in personal hygiene habits than most having had to deal with noro (aka tourista) in the past and a typical URI complaint commonly called" cruise crud" that was most likely picked up on the air flight to get to the cruise port. The real numbers of disease and mortality overall within this industry do not support the screaming head llnes and lurid reporting.

[turcopolier]

TTG

It remains to be seen if one infection makes an individual immune for some time. IMO we should follow the Atlas/Ioannides formula. I noticed in re-reading "Sharpsburg," that Hunter McGuire appears therein.

[Deap]

What does an anti-body test do? I just had one last week and awaiting the results - was a cruise passenger and international air passenger during the month of January in a later suspected area. (not Asia).

Here is why I did the anti-body test: (Quest Labs - fee service, no RX- 99% accuracy - drawn blood vial test)

1. Helps substantiate dates and areas of transmission that may not yet be in the data pool.

2. Tracks the rates of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases occurring among the "elderly", in order to see if there is an enhanced risk of not in this age group, if there are no underlying co-morbidities.

3. Adds demographic data specific for the travel industry.

4. Allows possible donation of anti-body serum for research and perhaps mitigation of those who are affected.

5. Personal peace of mind -been there and done that. Freedom to move about.

6. Provides baseline for duration of immunity; resilience of immunity or data showing re-infection can be possible.

Primarily it is for data gathering to help stop the hysteria. That was worth the time, money and blood donation for me. We will never know the true extent of this virus, its impacts, its initial modeling accuracy until we start plugging facts into the "expert" hypotheticals.

Taking one for the team is the way I see it. Will I now become a local Typhoid Mary and our house burned down if this data becomes known? Or will people stop walking out into the roadway in faux deference to my advanced age as I pass by, from our deliciously virtue signaling "progressive" population in blue state California.

[turcopolier]

All

Am I right or wrong in thinking that when the injected liquidity plus existing cash exceeds the amount of money that would haven been in the economy at this point then the currency will begin to inflate?

[turcopolier]

Deap

"Provides baseline for duration of immunity; resilience of immunity or data showing re-infection can be possible. Primarily it is for data gathering to help stop the hysteria." Yes

[Oilman2]

Colonel, you are NOT wrong. The oil business in America is going to take a very long time to recover. There are complete shutterings of businesses, bankruptcies and more - all while we were in the middle of a downturn. Personally, I just folded up my tent because my my active client list went from 21 to zero over this last month (and that includes intl clients).

As the number one buyer of US steel, the oilpatch represents much more than people realize. We have also been the number one buyer of many other items - where sales have disappeared as company quietly and reluctantly face the reality of the current induced glut.

I'm being forced to change livelihoods - interesting for me, as I am short of the age to get my SS check and too old to employ by most corporate masters....

[The Twisted Genius]

pl,

Yes, I noticed Hunter Holmes when I reread Chancellorsville this time. I knew nothing about him until you mentioned him a while back. He also founded what is now the VCU Medical Center and was president of the AMA for a time. There is a statue of him on the State Capitol grounds, but i haven't seen it yet.