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21 May 2020

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turcopolier

Laura Wilson

Business Insider - run by a NY City type wrote on 3 May that there had been about 50 medical professional deaths. 50 divided by what denominator equals what? Times 100 would be the % of deaths by COVID-19 among medical professionals. Do the math.

AK

jerseycityjoan,

To leave your home on any given day and to live any semblance of a worthwhile life is to be in some degree of peril from any number of threats much of the time. You just don't notice them because the news isn't cramming them down your throat day in and day out. That's all there is to it.

Harlan Easley

I couldn't agree more. The virus is much more serious than the flu for older individuals and individuals with comorbidities.

But if you are younger than 50 and especially 40 the risk is very low. And non-existant pretty much for under 30 compared to the flu.

This virus is peculiar in that kids are pretty much not affected minus the hysteria the media is trying to cause with the diagnosis of pediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome.

Why is that? They are being exposed to a virus and have no immunity to it from previous infections. The reason there is a pandemic is humans have no natural immunity to this novel coronavirus.

But kids and young people are not affected. This is great news. Maybe there are less ACE2 enzymes in younger people. I doubt it. I believe their immune system is just more efficient in eliminating this virus. But a strain of Flu B hit kids extremely hard this past flu season due to no previous immunity while most adults had been exposed to this strain previously.

It is a peculiar virus. The heat is already causing the diagnosis of the virus to decline. Why the hysterical SJWs medical establishment dismissed this is due to arrogance.

They still debate why the flu disappears during the warmer months. Some hypothesis Vitamin D, lifestyle change, warmer humid weather causing the virus droplets to stay in the air a lot less longer than cold dry air.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-we-get-the-flu-mos/

"The answer as to why flu is a winter disease is not fully known."

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Bottom line is nobody knows why the flu disappears during the warmer months. I believe the virus will continue to dissipate as it warms up.

But I also believe it will re emerge this coming respiratory seasonal flu season.

The Globalists/Democratic Party intention is to destroy the US no doubt. Most/ALL of the Democratic voters are clueless they are voting for the destruction of the United States of America. They don't matter in the end. On the big issues.

Republicans are really not much different. The true power hates Nationalism. And Christ.


Jack

“....economic collapse by bankruptcy of the federal government, or hyperinflation,...”

rho,

Before this happens we’ll see a collapse of the EU, emerging markets and of course China. All of them are way more leveraged. We have many experts here at SST who can suggest if this will lead to the next Great War.

No doubt printing money by central banks to monetize government debt and over the past decade even corporate, asset-backed and municipal debt is both unprecedented and completely insane. However, since there have been no immediately apparent deleterious impacts the Ph.Ds have convinced the people with their econobabble that these emergency financial operations are necessary and very salutary.

In the US unlike now in the U.K., there is no direct monetization. Here, the Fed buys securities from primary dealers and has now followed the BoJ to even buy ETFs. Since this is illegal they use technicalities like creating SPVs housed at the Treasury to do it. The problem as we have seen over the past decade is that once the rubicon is crossed there’s no turning back. It only gets bigger and even more brazen.

The consequence is that bankruptcy which is in reality a restructuring of the balance sheet can keep getting postponed as there is endless financing. This leads to zombie companies, municipalities and even governments. This means more capacity, more production, more white elephants and more boondoggles. Of course more speculation and speculative profits for financial speculators as their losses are always socialized. IMO, we’re building more and more instability financially, socially and politically.

When this changes is purely a function of psychology. The parable of the emperor with no clothes is most apt. No one knows when mass psychology changes.

From a century ago:

https://youtu.be/b-QlCXThsgE

J

Colonel,

The FBI and CISA issued a joint public warning earlier this month warning that the CCP was targeting U.S. medical research cures for the CCP Virus.

Also Gordon Chang is warning that the CCP is comparable to the Nazi Third Reich racist outlook with its Han Nationalistic Ideology.

https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/Joint_FBI-CISA_PSA_PRC_Targeting_of_COVID-19_Research_Organizations_S508C.pdf.pdf

JerseyJeffersonian

Friends,
All throughout this, the lack of tests for infection, and more crucially, the testing itself has led to several catastrophic errors: 1) Not knowing the prevalence of infection has led to a disasterously low, genuine knowledge of an important fraction, the numerator of which is all of those whose deaths can reliably be attributed to the virus (not gamed by attributing deaths of all those infected by the virus to the virus, please), and the denominator is the total number of those known to have been infected with the virus. That fraction is the genuine fatality rate, but you only get this if the denominator is correct. Then one needs to correlate this data with the demographic information to find out which groups (age, ethnicity, lifestyle, preexisting conditions) are most vulnerable in order to take effective measures to protect those people as the highest priority, This is Epidemiology 101, for God's sake; 2) The emerging knowledge, anecdotal as it often was due to the lack of widespread testing, was revealing that the old mostly with co-morbidities, or those with compromised immune systems WERE the groups needing protection, but lockdowns were only applied to families, while the facility staff, largely untested or monitored for common symptoms, were not affected by lockdowns in the same manner. Here in NJ, this led to raging epidemics in nursing homes, and rehabiltation hospitals just full of these vulnerable people. A very high percentage of deaths attributed to the virus came from these populations. And consequently, these numbers, preventable had the facts been actively sought and acted upon appropriately, wound up driving the panic and community-wide lockdowns; 3) Because testing was not there, contact tracing to contain hotspots was not possible. Guess we just have to all go into quarantine then, eh?

Too bad about the lost school year. Tough break when the small businesses who don't have the flywheel of capital available have to go under, taking with them the savings of their owners (and maybe those of their supportive family members), and throwing their employees into the abyss, into the bargain.

LA Sox Fan

Concerning the economy, most of the damage was caused by a significant portion of the population staying home prior to any lockdown. Ending lockdowns and telling people to be good consumers isn’t going to get enough people shopping to fix the economy.

Currently, 1.5 out of every 1,000 residents of New York State has been killed by Covid. That’s not so good. The US and South Korea reported their first case of Covid on the same day. Today, the US has had more than 90,000 people killed by Covid while South Korea has less than 275.

A sane country should done what South Korea did, instead of allowing tens of thousands of people to die. I get that many of the dead were older or had conditions like high blood pressure, but if I intentionally killed any of those people, I’d still be charged with murder.

The economy isn’t coming back until Covid is crushed. The government telling people its OK and opening up everything isn’t going to work. No one trusts the government, especially now after it just let 90,000 Americans die.

A.I.S.

Concerning the Khmer Rouge:

A somewhat uncommon interpretation is that their auto-genocide was a neo-religiously enforced Scorched Earth policy (to prevent or make more difficult an incoming Vietnamese invasion) that went completely out of control because Khmer Rouge leadership essentially lost control of their own movement. Scorched Earth policies going out of control is a thing that happens pretty often historically.

This included random attacks by the Khmer Rouge on Vietnamese Soil, which gave Vietnam a pretty excellent Casus Belli to do what it probably wanted to do anyway. Historically, speaking, whenver Vietnam is strong it goes on to beat up Cambodia and/or Laos.


There are some parallels there, the US democratic party (I am a leftist, I do not consider Obama to be left) apparently wishes to burn (more precisly smother) the economy in order to deny Trump a victory (if they werent so fucking corrupt and enthralled to pretty toxic policies in the first place, they would not need such stunts to contest Trump), it could well go out of control.

BillWade

President Trump said yesterday that we won't be closing down the country if there is a 2nd wave, "we'll put out the fires if they pop up, we're not closing down".

Remembering Pol Pot brings back bad memories for me, lost 2 good friends, both dog handlers with the 56th Security Police Sq, Nakhon Phanom Thailand. The CH-53 chopper they were on with about 16 others was either shot down or crashed over Laos on their way to the Cambodian island where the merchant ship Mayaguez was captured by the KR.

turcopolier

LA Sox Fan

"especially now after it just let 90,000 Americans die." How did the "Government" (federal?) let them die. What should Trump (your target) have done to keep them from dying that he did not do? You think he should have acted more quickly? Would the Democrats have acted more quickly? Pelosi's foot dragging does seem to indicate that to be true.

turcopolier

jersey jeffersonian

We had a doctor insist yesterday on SST that the denominator should be the total population.

turcopolier

J

"targeting U.S. medical research cures for the CCP Virus." How do you do that?

Terence Gore

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/02/849535944/south-koreas-tracking-of-covid-19-patients-raises-privacy-concerns

"KUHN: "Even though Korean society is industrialized," he says, "we still consider interpersonal relationships more important than individuals, so we try to avoid actions that harm others." The downside, he says, is that anyone seemed to be out of line with the majority can be stigmatized."

By releasing more social information than necessary it would get people to work very hard about conforming to the policy implemented.

Watching the anti smoking commercials here where the smoke travels between apartments to kill/maim a baby gives one the impression it is more about social outcasting of the smoker than the reality of second hand smoke.

A nudge isn't as good as a 2x4 to an obtuse man

BABAK MAKKINEJAD

All:

Sweden (population 10.23 million, 2019) vs. Michigan (9.987 million, 209)

Michigan (with a 2-month lock-down):

Confirmed 53,510

Deaths 5,129

=======================

Sweden (soft lock-down)

Confirmed 32,172

Deaths 4,971

(I am assuming the reliability of Swedish data - unlike those of UK)

Eric Newhill

Rick,
I'm in the Finger Lakes region of NY. So I don't live near NYC, but I was going there on business right before the lockdown. If NYC opened tomorrow I wouldn't hesitate to resume business trips, go the bars, restaurants, etc. Nor would I wear a damn useless mask.

If I was 20 years older and sickly, I'd refrain from making the trips.

JerseyJeffersonian

Colonel,

As to the deniminator being the entire population, well, that might not be possible, but having testing be dramatically higher would approximate that situation, at least to the point that actionable statistics would have become a possibility.

The CDC screwed the pooch right out of he gate when, after insisting that all the kits requisite for testing for infection would originate with them, they bungled the process of fabricating the tests so badly, and consequently the results were so undependable, that the nation lost weeks of time in aggregating actionable statistics against which comparisons with the demographics of those infected with the virus could have clearly been done, and unambiguously identify risk factors and at risk groups. And any hope of using testing results to do contact tracing to focus in on hot spots of infection was gone, gone, gone.

For want of that horse shoe nail, well, The Experts were functionally flying blind and, perforce, lunged toward universal lockdown as their only recourse.

As soon as the Democrats figured out that they could weaponize this policy to try to tie the can to the President's tail, sedulously aided by the screaming meemies of the MSM, we were off to the races.

The ass covering has been epic by these self-described Experts. And the Democrats have been moving the goal posts as much as they can, now advancing the "policy imperative" of keeping everything frozen in place until some vaccine is universally administered. But this is a coronavirus, notoriously difficult to develop vaccines for, so the timeline for their open-ended "policy imperative" is oh so convenient to the Democrats aims, not to mention that some of The Experts are way too cozy with big pharma to be able to rely on the objectivity of their pronouncements.

For want of the horse shoe nail...

JerseyJeffersonian

For want of massive, trustworthy testing early on, we lost all prospect of getting inside of the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) of our antagonist, the epidemic.

Losing that initiative made all of the difference. Serious nations, confronted with the virus, made accurate and wide-scale testing to give them an edge a top priority.

Different nations chose different responses, but responses at least informed by data.

The childlike faith some still repose in Our Experts, given their abject failure in the Observe and Orient phases, leaves me aghast.

Thank you,
JJ

Fred

JerseyJeffersonian,

"nursing homes, and rehabiltation hospitals"

Florida did pretty much the opposite of what NY and NJ did, much to the benefit of people at risk, even with the contemptuous flight to safety of North-Easterners into the state.

LA Sox Fan,

"No one trusts the government"
That's why the free people of America are telling Newman, Whitmer, DeBlasio et. al to go F themselves. What were people dying of in NY, before they started dying of policies enacted because of leftist b.s.? This virus isn't the only thing that kills human beings.

turcopolier

jerseyjeffersonian

I question whether or not having better data does much for you in the absence of cures for those infected who are in the killable classes of the population. We must remember that if you are in other than those groups you will very likely recover from the infection.

Deap

MSM's latest Fear Du Jour - an extremely rare condition in children not even confirmed to be linked to covid - Johns Hopkins provides more information about this latest MSM headline grabber: "Covid Kills Children":

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-babies-and-children

Bobo

Covid-19 Testing was easily accessible in Florida in March as in my town there were 5 drive-in testing sites. SWMBO was not feeling well in mid March and insisted on getting tested on a Sunday morning. Drove her down town, got in line, an hour later the test was done and Monday night the results were on-line. My New Jersey living Daughter paying 50K+ in State & property taxes cried as no test sites were available in Jersey at the time. Had to send here a care package (Toilet paper, hand sanitizer, N-95 masks etc) cause there was noting left or coming in Jersey.
Why, the Florida Governor brought the National Guard in to do the tests & assist the nursing homes. The Jersey governor twiddled his thumbs and cried like his neighbor and tossed the Covide-19 people into the nursing home.

Guess you get what you pay for does not apply in this case. If you liberal state voters vote in the same people again you need more than your heads examined......

Deap

The United State was founded on the principle: never trust the government.

That is why the Founders granted only limited express powers to the government; built in a system of checks and balances; and reserved the most important powers inalienable to those who consented to be governed.

To say we don't trust the government is a virtue; not a failing. It is not even an insult. It is a badge of American exceptionalism.

The recent rise of the unelected fourth branch of government - the massive regulatory and administrative agencies, is reason enough to value the enduring wisdom of our nation's founders.

The Founders expected government to renew itself at two, four and six year cycles. Never did they contemplate this noble experiment would turn into an entitled, tenured class of unionized government employees holding power over everyone, including all provisions of the US Constittion.

This trend was started by JFK who unionized government emplyees after the 1960's. You can measure the dysfunctional alienation of the people from their own government from that time forward.

BillWade

Just watched the President in a press conference opening the places of worship nationwide effective now. He spoke briefly and took no questions, then scarf lady droned on for half an hour. The press secretary then took a few questions, got angry that the right questions were not being asked and then gave the press the right questions to ask (unmasking of Gen Flynn and such) and told the press they had 3 days to figure out the right questions to ask. Things are looking up.

Barbara Ann

Deap

"CALDWELL, ID—Calling it a vital part of his daily routine, local man and utterly depraved masochist Richard Petrillo revealed to reporters Friday that he enjoys keeping up with the news."
The leftist media have pretty much transcended parody. Their descent into madness seems complete. They are in a self-induced ecstatic frenzy of fear - unhinged.

I look around at my fellow citizens and discern two categories; those who have been entranced by fear and those who have not. The two occupy parallel realities. The spell must be broken if we are ever to return from beyond the looking glass.

https://local.theonion.com/depraved-masochist-enjoys-following-the-news-1819575570

Horace

@Eric Newhill

"IMO it is some kind of twisted spiritual illness that seeks dominance as it replaces God with themselves."

Intolerance of the Godless is the one thing that Muslims do completely right. Those without God are dyscivilizational cockroaches who bring suffering and death to everyone around them.

It is our great misfortune that our forebears allowed interpretation of separation of church and state to be warped from its original purpose of preventing one Protestant sect from establishing itself as the state religion at the expense of the rest [Note 1] to meaning that no religion should be allowed to be present in the public sphere. Diversity is not a strength and has to be managed. When it is managed badly, everyone suffers especially "the diversity".

1. The religious wars of Europe were recent history to our founding fathers. We real Americans were AND ARE a confederation of European tribes/nations with different Protestant denominations. (some Catholics too, including a few of my own ancestors, but a clinical assessment is that we were founded as a Protestant country. Catholics, Jews, and the rest were here in politically inconsequential numbers and were 'along for the ride'.)

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