« Marine Corps returning to its roots - TTG | Main | "Mexico joins Canada, notifies U.S. it's ready to implement new NAFTA" CBC »

03 April 2020

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

turcopolier

walrus

IMO the survival rates on CODIV-19 are high enough to live with (irony) but the economy is headed for the Middle Ages if "mediation" is not changed to ensure treatment of the sick and protection of old people like us while re-opening the economy which is life itself for our civilization. I find it amusing that the lefty muchacha thinks the economy is about "shares."

turcopolier

DRFRANK

High.

turcopolier

Norbert Salomon

They think you are immortal?

J

Two filings have been filed against the Chinese Government and the Chinese People's Liberation Army for their development and unleashing of their COVID Bio-weapon upon humanity and the world.

India jurists have filed against China before the U.N.'s Human Rights Council in Geneva.

https://www.livelaw.in/pdf_upload/pdf_upload-372096.pdf


And in Texas Federal Court, a $20 Trillion Dollar Lawsuit has been filed against the Chinese Government and the Chinese PLA for their COVID Bio-Weapon.

https://www.freedomwatchusa.org/pdf/200317-CoronavirusFILEDComplaint177113137478.pdf


Fred

Walrus,

Tell your friend whose comment I called "OK Boomer" I'm sorry I hurt his feelings. You did not respond to my comments on public policy decisions being made in cities in the US, which are making things worse.

"You millennials have Forty years to recover from it. Us boomers don’t." If you want another ten healthy years I recommend you get some "Trump pills" (hydroxychloroquine and a zpack) and stay on your ranch. You won't experience the meltdown of society and I'll tell you where to send the money next year when we're still exchanging ideas. Maybe you can do a write up on that yatch/motor sailer that came up on an open thread a few years back. A nice live aboard would be a good thing to own right now.

A couple of posts ago you were saying we should end tariffs against China so we can get PPE output from factories there becuase of the crisis. Let me point out it is while they are dumping defective material and fraudulent data on the rest of the world. They are the last people we should trust and we need to destroy their communist state while we still can.

walrus

Fred, I thought I had explained that in my opinion, the economy will adapt and look after itself. Yes, a lot of people will be financially destroyed but others are going to make fortunes, and not the elite 1% either.

I was unemployed myself for 18 months during the 1990 recession and I know the desperation and pain. I also remember friends starting businesses in garages with borrowed bits of gear, friends working for free in the hope of some pay or equity. I watched a friend buy sophisticated manufacturing machines coming from a bankrupt company from dumb bankers for pennies in the dollar. and start a new manufacturing business on the cheap. I saw so many turn disaster into opportunity!

I know it will make people howl, but this is the time to get started on a new business. Right now! In a post accidentally deleted, I mentioned a friend who has her own catering business -weddings, parties, etc. all gone. She now has developed a range of gourmet, ready to eat meals that are selling like wildfire through the local supermarket. There is no point in lookin backwards. The old economy is gone for good.

As for China, I said on March 6 and I still believe, that China is playing fair, this is no bio weapon, there is no conspiracy with WHO. The guys who gave the briefing were hands on with the virus and in daily communication with China and WHO. They probably still are since we now grow the virus and are testing British and American vaccines as I write. As for Chinese fake equipment, based statistics, so what? They are entrepreneurs and economical with the truth, always have been, you factor that in when you deal with them, it’s nothing new.

I am concerned by the attempted demonization of Fauci and President Trump. Sure, wth 20/20 hindsight we could have maybe reacted earlier by a few days, but when you consider the politics of the situation I think CDC, NIH and President Trump have moved quickly and done the right thing, operating, as they must, with incomplete and potentially changeable information. Fauci will probably be discarded by Trump as soon as his usefulness is over, the knives would already be out because people are envious of his access and public profile.

I got out of the city and bought this little place on the river six years ago to live out my declining years and also with an eye to providing a place of safety and repose for our extended family. We now get to see if it will do its job. I’m working in the garden today, plating winter vegetables, and thanking our creator that I am not cooped up in an apartment. I hope the pandemic is kind to all SST folk.

Barbara Ann

walrus

You are right, it could scarcely be more serious. You are also right about the business as usual option. A collapsed healthcare system is exactly what would result in this scenario. This would be swiftly followed by abject fear and panic and that followed by civil disorder on a scale never seen. In an armed society that equates to anarchy pretty fast. That is the sure route to the Middle Ages. It is not an option.

Given this as the alternative, a severely damaged economy but with civil order maintained is the best we can hope for right now. The lockdowns allow breathing space to gear up the healthcare system as fast as possible and as early as is feasible they must be lifted.

I am actually optimistic that the domestic crisis is just about manageable. Some aspects of temporary wartime command economy may be required. My greater fear is the fragility of the modern international monetary and financial system, which has never experienced a shock like this. International cooperation on an unprecedented scale will be needed. The dollar's rise (caused by a scarcity of dollars in the Eurodollar markets) is creating havoc and the IMF has already been hit by a tsunami of requests for emergency aid from some 80 countries. Our interlinked global financial system is systemically at risk.

On a positive note, I do not believe there is a danger of the US becoming China when this is all over. This too shall pass and though we mere mortals may not be immune to the virus, the US Constitution sure as hell is.

TonyL

To those who still insist in calling COVID-19 the "Chinese virus", the jury is still out on where it actually came from. President Trump, who does not want more eggs on his face, had stopped using that epithet.

From M. K. BHADRAKUMAR:
https://indianpunchline.com/russia-quizzes-us-on-coronavirus-parentage/

"What it adds up to is that Russia is signalling that it knows something about coronavirus’ parentage that is explosive in its impact on world politics and international security. Russia has highly privileged intelligence sharing arrangements with China. Kremlin is the only interlocutor with which President Xi Jinping’s office maintains an institutionalised system of sharing vital information and coordination."

Deap

US Surgeon General in a short video shows one how to make their own face mask with an old tee shirt and two rubber bands - no sewing. Just cutting.

Pretty ingenious. Good for him. Best way to stop self-noculating one's own nose and mouth with one's own dirty fingers, and help "stop the spread". https://www.facebook.com/CDC/videos/1260776464113699/

This will work for colds and flu too.

Fred

Walrus,

"As for Chinese fake equipment, based statistics, so what? They are entrepreneurs and economical with the truth, always have been, you factor that in when you deal with them, it’s nothing new.".

Then the US needs to expell every Chinese national now. We can 'extreme vet' them later. With 10,000,000 unemployed by government mandate we need zero of them now.

" I saw so many turn disaster into opportunity!" I've seen the same. I have never seen our country order people into bankruptcy as they are doing now. Is your catering friend's business going to survive when people can go back to restaurants or are they part of the "The old economy is gone for good."?

"I am concerned by the attempted demonization of Fauci and President Trump."

Fauci is a "we have always done it that way" scientist who would gladly have us waiting for perfection. He should be removed. He's had 36 years to train people, didn't he do that? FDA regulations, not all of his making, have hindered progress significantly whether on vintilators, masks or even hand sanitizer. Why on earth is the FDA regulation hand sanitizer? There are plenty of other examples of regulatory barriers to entry that drive up cost, delay or prevent innovation and do little to improve health and safety. (The old AT&T monopoly comes to mind as an analogy). Fauci is an example of the type that creates those barriers in an effort to get perfection. Demonizing Trump? That has been going on since before he was elected. Imagine how many of us would be dying right now if that other narcissistic New Yorker were in office right now. Add that to the deaths incurred in extended military actions in Syria, Ukraine and Libya she was going to make happen.


turcopolier

Barbara Ann

IMO the medical system would adapt to the fact that only the severely symptomatic need the level of treatment now being provided for too many.

Jack

All

Please take the time to watch this interview of Dr. Jay Battacharya at Stanford who wrote an oped in the WSJ last week.

https://youtu.be/-UO3Wd5urg0

I agree with his contention that the models that are being used to project the fatalities and consequently the response of nationwide quarantine is flawed because we don’t know the denominator. We have not done antibody tests of representative samples of the population to get the denominator. If things go right within the next 2-4 weeks we will get the denominator for Santa Clara and Los Angeles.

Only then will we know if a nationwide quarantine and a possible economic depression is justified to fight the Wuhan virus. My speculation is the denominator will show that the lethality of the Wuhan virus is much less and we can take a much more targeted approach as Col. Lang has suggested in his post.

Chicot

Walrus,

Ok, so you don't think the lockdown can be lifted now? Fair enough. When then? What are the criteria for lifting the lockdown? If those criteria are not satisfied then do you just carry on with the lockdown? For how long? 6 months? 1 year? Until a vaccine is found and what if it isn't?

Maybe some of us are underestimating the virus but I think you are overestimating the willingness of populations to live under virtual house-arrest. Sure, most people seem to be abiding by the restrictions for now (at least in the UK) but that will not last forever. Eventually and probably sooner than people think people are just going to say "to hell with it, I'd rather take my chances with the virus than live like this". Once that begins to happen, good luck with trying to enforce the lockdown and keep a lid on it. You would have civil unrest and the disaster movie scenario you fear would take place anyway.

JoeC100

Back around the end of February, a friend well connected with some quite credible researchers (deeply engaged in COVID testing/mitigation development) provided the following potential US impact assessment:

~100 million will be infected

~15 million will be hospitalized

~2-2.5 million will need intensive care

~500K - 1 million will die

This was based on the following assumptions (guess based on early date from Korea, japan, etc.):

15-45% of population will be infected

12% will nee hospitalization

3% will require intensive care

0.5 - 1% fatality rate

mongo

Mr. Lang,

I applaud both the logic and rhetoric of your approach. The Economy must demand our concerns because we must render unto Caesar as we have been taught by Jesus of Nazareth, Himself. In furtherance of this, please allow me to expand on your thesis with some additional suggestions...

The Unites States should undertake a constitutional amendment to reduce the vote of The Old Ones in proportion to their age and susceptibility to disease, or perhaps just employ a blanket adjustment such as declaring them "three-fifths of a person" as they would otherwise act on Election Day in their own self-interest, thereby endangering the prospects of The Young Ones. Should anyone attach the hated term Death Panel to these sorts of proceedings, one can simply declare it "Fake News!" and perhaps add additional exclamation points to emphasize their wrong thinking.

The proportion of the Social Security trust funds that these unfortunate Old Ones have provided in the course of their honest work can be diverted to Young Ones to subsidize future Spring Break excursions that will be necessary to support the State of Florida, whose Economy will be severely be impacted by the altruistic deaths of its Old Ones. Let the Gulf of Mexico be the bathtub that we drown that particular example of government overreach into their lives.

It is certainly arguable to think that The Old Ones represent a significant driving force to the vibrancy of The Economy because the capital that they have created or acquired in the aforementioned years of honest work cannot, in aggregate, balance the burden that they place on The Young Ones or The Economy to protect their well being. As they lay down their lives in service to The Economy, their estates should be appropriated to provide support to the efforts of The Young Ones to chart a new American Century. Even if they lack the accumulated wisdom of The Old Ones, they can stand on the shoulders of these giants through the existence of archival wisdom such as Soylent Green and the works of Herbert Spencer.

Indeed, as has been noted by luminaries such as Jared Kushner, the role of government stockpiles and similar quasi-socialist measures to ensure the Common Good are not, in fact, truly meant to ensure the Common Good but instead are there solely to support a centralized government to ensure that someone is there to note the inexorable progression of corrective measures on society such as COVID-19.

Yours in Swiftian Isolation,

mongo

Upstate NY'er

"I am amazed at what a bunch of pussies Americans have turned out to be"
I'm not.
It has become a country of feminized babies who want their mommies.
I'm 75 years old and can still intimidate millennials.
As for the economy, it's right on the precipice of a Great Depression.
If that does happen, will the populace react as passively as they did in 1929?

walrus

Chicot

I don’t know when the lockdown can be lifted. The smart answer would be “when we can do it without destroying the health care system “. If the healthcare system collapsed, then there won’t be an economy because we will be in disaster movie territory. The key to keeping the health system running is having enough workers, and they are under huge stress at the moment. There are also reports here of HCW being abused and assaulted when they have been in public wearing uniform. The State Government has just organised a luxury hotel for HCW so they don’t have to worry about infecting their families or commuting.

Maybe, just maybe, this chloroquine stuff can be used not only as a treatment but also as a preventative. If that were the case and we could get enough of it for the population and distribute it, we could open up real quick. Everyone pops their daily pill for a week or two and voila! If not, then it’s back to the drawing board and hopes of a vaccine fast track.

I think President Trump is of a similar mind to Col. Lang. You could hear his frustration in yesterday’s briefing. I think at some point he is likely to clash with Fauci and Birx, because they are too cautious for him. They will be replaced. It’s anyone’s guess what happens then.

Anyway, this is just my WAG. The Australian states have closed their borders to each other. I expect more movement restrictions today to try to prevent city dwellers from migrating to their holiday houses over Easter.

Jack

How did Taiwan manage Wuhan virus without shutting down their whole country and with only 5 deaths when over a million people travel between China and Taiwan annually?

https://youtu.be/sae9AIx1wp0

This is the country we should partner with not the totalitarian communist regime in China.

IMO, the entire management team at CDC, FDA, NIH, HHS should be fired for incompetence. Sadly this will not happen, as in contemporary America one only fails upward if you’re in the top ranks of big business and big government.

walrus

I have a link here to a paper on Australia’s pandemic modeling. FWIW, it reckons 13 weeks of 90% compliance will suppress the disease, BUT you had better have plan B available by then or the disease will come back worse than ever for reasons I don’t understand. I believe this is what happened lately in China.

I don’t pretend to understand the computer modeling and yours is likely much more complex but you can see the complexities involved here:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.10218v2.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3tbNXdYX5tcjGWC9Ew9iBEWRSJwAWVPpU9KgfB736ev8D5-zeATNC5e7c

turcopolier

walrus

Why has Australia started treating people with hydrochloroquine and ZPac? https://www.businessinsider.com/malaria-pill-chloroquine-tested-as-coronavirus-treatment-2020-3

There are numerous articles.

walrus

Col. Lang,

I believe some patients here are being prescribed some form of chloroquine. I’m not sure what with.

Fauci is right about a double blind trial being the gold standard of proof. Without that, the placebo effect ensures that doctors and patients will think chloroquine works. We could end up then with spending billions and more importantly wasting valuable time and lives chasing a cure that doesn’t work any better at all.

I just wish he was more tactful in saying all that because at some stage Trump may lose patience and fire him. Then, god help us, we might get a “yes man” medical flunky and Trump dictating medical science - shades of Stalin.

The Twisted Genius

Jack,

"How did Taiwan manage Wuhan virus without shutting down their whole country and with only 5 deaths when over a million people travel between China and Taiwan annually?"

Very good question. Unfortunately, in order to follow the Taiwan model we would have had to start long ago, not just in January, but years ago. They prepared in earnest after the last SARS pandemic hit them hard. This article describes what they did in detail. Whether we could have duplicated the Taiwanese way is an open question. The author does compare Taiwan with Australia as far as being island nations with strong economic ties with China, similar sized populations and universal healthcare systems. The article includes a link to a detailed, chronological list of actions taken by the Taiwanese government in the first five weeks of their response.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html

Although our economy has been clobbered and it is getting worse, critical sectors of the economy are working. The health care system is still working, even if it is teetering in areas. Our food production and distribution systems are still going strong. The lights are on. The water is still running. The phones work. Broadcast TV works. The internet is handling a nation of online schooling and teleworking. The mail still gets in the box every day. Hell, I still get my morning paper. We'll get through this. My worry is what happens if or when this hits the lesser developed regions of the world hard. Will we let the rest of the world burn because we got ours? If we do that, we are a nation of spoiled, selfish assholes.

Fred

Walrus,

Which prison are the people who were arrested for spitting upon or otherwise harrasing those nurses in? Were the cops to busy with social distance policing or just pulled off the street?

"I think at some point he is likely to clash with Fauci and Birx..." You have that wrong, they are clashing with him. He's in charge, not them. They advise, he decides. Fauci's advice hasn't been that great:
Fauci, January 26, 2020: "[The Corona] virus isn't something the American people need to worry or be afraid about." That was less than ten days before Trump's SOTU where he raised concerns about the Covid19 virus.
Fauci, February 17,2020: [in] "the United States there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask"
Fauci, April 3, 2020: "Americans should wear a face mask as a way to help stifle the spread of Covid19".

That's reason enough to fire the distinguished 36 years in the same job SOB. Perhaps he didn't get your message: "They are entrepreneurs and economical with the truth, always have been, you factor that in when you deal with them, it’s nothing new."." A little late now.

"I don’t know when the lockdown can be lifted. The smart answer would be “when we can do it without destroying the health care system “. If the healthcare system collapsed, then there won’t be an economy because we will be in disaster movie territory."

There will be no 'health care system' if the economy collapses. We need to get back to work yesterday and stop panicing over a global IO campaign that is utilizing the virus and its spread to create panic, dissention and damage western nations and civlization itself. The 'health care system' isn't stressed in multiple states nor in many areas within individual states.
"...we will be in disaster movie territory" no, but in areas led by corrupt and incompetent leftists like NYC and New Orleans you may see a replay of the LA Rodney King riots or post Katrina looting. Then civilization reimposes itself, restores order, and lives by the civilization's rules. We need, must, get back to work and not let communist chinese (and globalist open borders types) pressure force us into destroying our nation.

China lied, Americans died. China delenda est.

Barbara Ann

@mongo

Your modest proposal is an interesting idea. Another piece of archival wisdom provides a similar blueprint, with the demarcation between Young and Old set at age 21. In this scheme, the Young are so keen to maintain a healthy society that they (mostly) voluntarily present themselves for termination before becoming "Old".

I'm sure the altruists in Congress would without hesitation vote for such an amendment (and themselves into extinction) if it can be shown that this will relieve the burden on the economy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan's_Run

walrus

Col. Lang,

As far as I know, there are two trials of the drug here and I believe it’s now legal for Doctors to prescribe it for the virus. I know of one case where it was tried (unsuccessfully) for a patient in the late stage of lung failure. I’m not sure if it’s in regular use yet.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)

My Photo

October 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Blog powered by Typepad