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28 April 2020

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JJackson

Larry why do you think China "unleashed the plague on the world"? That makes it sound as if this was a deliberate act, for which there is no evidence.
Re. the dates. Wuhan reported a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown origin on the 31st of Dec., on the 7th of Jan. they reported it as a beta corona virus and released the full sequence on the 11th., showing that it was a newly emerged zoonotic strain.

walrus

From January 1, China acted as if the discovery of Ccoronavirus was a complete surprise to them. They had actually sequenced the virus on December 27 and knew it was a SARS like Coronavirus. They also discovered the first human to human transmission on 27 December but, crucially, didn’t admit that until about 20 January. In terms of a Pandemic the human to human transmission is the clincher. Without that it’s just another animal related disease. By 20 January President Xi had ensured the virus had spread worldwide.

Larry Johnson

Sr. Jackson, It is quite simple. Once the virus was spreading in Wuhan, the Chinese shutdown travel to their own major cities. That's why you've seen very few infections there. However, the Chinese, fully aware of the contagion, allowed travelers to go to other parts of the world. Not my opinion, a cold, hard fact.

elaine

Chinese New Year celebrations last for 16 days. It's a big deal.
People usually travel all over China to visit family & friends.
It was officially canceled this year. The exact date was January 25th.

JamesT

Half of the news media is trying to pin all of the blame on Trump, the other half of the news media is trying to pin all of the blame on China.

Yeah, Right

I'm not sure I understand your last comment, Larry. Are you saying that the Chinese authorities shut down all domestic travel out of Wuhan but continued to allow the Wuhan international airport to operate?

If so I do not believe that is correct.

But if they shut down Wuhan to all movement but continued to allow internal movement everywhere else then there is nothing sinister about them also allowing international travel from everywhere else in China: both speak of a belief that they had contained the outbreak inside Wuhan.

Larry Johnson

Yeah Right, You are WRONG. The Chinese were on notice that they had a big problem as early as 3 January. They waited till the 23rd of January to shutdown. By then, the damage was done and the plague launched overseas.

The DIRECT flights from WUHAN to foreign destinations included:
Sydney Australia,
San Francisco, USA
NYC, USA (JFK)
Moscow,
London (Heathrow and Gatwick)
Rome
Istanbul
Dubai
Osaka
Tokyo

English Outsider

Mr Johnson - as you say - "Trump, as is his practice, actually relied on the medical experts and trusted their judgment up to a point."

That's where it went wrong, not only for the US but for most of the West with the exception of the Pacific Rim countries.

Consensus medical opinion - the opinion on which all the politicians based their actions - was in line with WHO advice that had formed the basis of most Western planning for such a pandemic. Unfortunately that consensus medical opinion was wrong.

Therefore most Western governments did not take the action in the very early stages that they might have done. More importantly, they were not geared up to take such action. That is why there is such a shortage of protective equipment for medical staff and why some governments still don't have the administrative apparatus in place that is needed.

WHO advice has changed and consensus medical opinion in line with it. WHO guidelines on dealing with this pandemic are now -

"extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures"

There's a lot of blame game going on but the fact is that had these measures plus travel restrictions been advised from the start the disease would have been contained and it is likely that lockdowns would not have been needed. It was not contained and the spread started to become explosive. In most Western countries lockdowns of varying degrees of strictness were imposed to halt that explosive spread.

The question is now how to come off lockdown. Trump has emphasised testing and tracing in order to suppress the further local outbreaks that will be inevitable. Again this is in line with consensus medical opinion. The disease is not evenly spread and will not be so perhaps further local lockdowns will be necessary.

Given where we are, and assuming cures or vaccines don't arrive soon (unlikely, apparently) that is the best that can now be done.

I should say that my personal impression is that Merkel and Trump were the two Western leaders who stood out for tackling the crisis best once it was realised that it was a serious crisis and that it had been incorrectly dealt with at the start.

My further impression is that the necessity for imposing lockdown is going to cause Trump political problems with some of his own supporters. I hope not to such an extent that it imperils his chances at the forthcoming election.

blue peacock

Larry

I'm curious your opinion on US intelligence. Those agencies with hundreds of billions in annual expenditure.

In reading an interview with an official from Taiwan CDC on their very effective response with no lockdown and just single digit deaths, what struck me was that Taiwan intelligence noted unusual deaths in Wuhan early/mid December. They informed Taiwan CDC who sent medical personnel to draw samples. I'm as certain as anything that Taiwan intelligence would have informed their counterparts in the US intelligence community right then and there.

Yes, they shutdown all direct flights from Wuhan in December and restricted flights from other Chinese cities. Followed up with close monitoring of anyone who had been in China to determine if they showed any signs of symptoms.

Why do we spend so much on intelligence when it seems on things that matter like some Saudis learning to fly with no interest in takeoff and landing or Iraq WMD or even earlier that the communist utopia of the Soviet Union was in reality a basket case, they were out to lunch?

Jack

Larry

While the curtailment of flights from China that Trump despite the hysterical racist accusations the media and the Democrats carrying water for the CCP made, was a good decision now in hindsight, I have first hand knowledge that it didn’t filter down to immigration and customs officials at SFO. I know of a Chinese national who traveled through Bangkok and was not quarantined on arrival at SFO.

An early well enforced ban on travel to the US of those individuals who had been to China and Italy would have been the most effective response now in hindsight. Of course US citizens could have been repatriated and held in quarantine.

I agree that Xi and the CCP should be held to account and made to pay a price. No longer should the world trust the CCP. Every effort must be made to decouple our supply chains from China and significant covert measures should be taken to destroy the totalitarian CCP. They are not only an enemy of the US but also of any nation that believes in a free society.

Harlan Easley

JJackson,

Labs around the globe have been creating synthetic viruses like CoV2 for years. And no, its genome would not necessarily contain hallmarks of human manipulation: modern genetic engineering tools permit cutting and pasting genomic fragments without leaving a trace. It can be done quickly, too: it took a Texas BSL4 lab less than 2 months to create a synthetic clone of CoV2.

The major problem I have with you and your ilk proclamations is the deception. You know for a fact it may have been made in a lab. May doesn't mean was. But ignore this fact. Also containment at labs happen unfortunately. Another fact your ilk ignores.

I'm open minded enough to believe it may be from Nature. Somebody has to convince me. Hasn't happened yet.

ancestral bat strain RaTG13. So no bats near Wuhan. But this is the epicenter of the pandemic. China shuts down travel to all areas of China. Doesn't fit your narrative.

ancestral bat strain RaTG13. Nobody in the world knew the lab of Shi Zhengli had this virus until January 2020. My belief is the virus was isolated and brought to the BSL-IV lab of Shi Zhengli located in Wuhan for Gain of Function research.

And was released to the world either by accident(most likely) or by design.

However, I am not a pathological narcissist. Of course, if I was I may not know it. But for proof. I use to believe in Peak Oil. I was a fool. Since I choose to believe some geologists over the economists. Ironic. Since I studied economics. I changed my mind 8 years ago. I was simply wrong. Shale revolution changed my belief in a nanosecond.

You mentioned that many if not all of the committee do not know how to read a Blast sequence. That is correct for me. But here is a promise.

I am basically a loser in life. Black sheep of the family. Criminal record several pages long. So many different jobs. That a resume from me is not an option anymore. So I now have my own online business and rate search results for Internet Search Companies. They only cared if I passed their test.

One of my previous detours in life was Medical School. I worked a year in a lab for a Dr. Scott Barnum at UAB Microbiology Department while taking my prerequisites. As a Post-Graduate. Scored top 5% on MCAT and applied to a private medical school and was accepted. Stayed 3 months and left. I knew my criminal record precluded a licence from the State. But I still hoped.

If you find the time I would very much enjoy reading your defense of the coronavirus as 100% natural.

I will learn to read Blast sequences or anything else and follow your argument. If you decide to write a post.

RussianBot

Should we play devil's advocate for a moment?

There seems to be some evidence that suggests a strain of the virus had already spread to countries like Italy as far back as November.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading

It's possible that strain was less deadly and less infectious. What we are experiencing now may be the second wave.

That isn't to say Larry is wrong, but there seems to be some major donut holes in explaining the origins of this virus.

BillWade

Larry, 26,000 Chinese flew into Bangkok for the Chinese New Year, additionally 10s of thousands more flew in from other Chinese provinces. Bangkok is a significant international hub.

We need to stress to the members of ASEAN where this virus came from.

Deap

Quest Diagnostics, at least in California, now makes appointments online to have a COVID-19 antibody test - $129

This voluntary testings will add to the data bank numbers potentially of at least prior and perhaps totally asymptomatic exposures. This will help determine the whats, wheres, who and whens of this truly bizarre US Election Year "corona" shut down.

At least voluntary lab testing now will add to the vague incidence numbers in order to put a better handle on the potential fatality numbers, which unfortunately have now been tainted beyond any useful value due to overly generous COVID-19 co-morbidity reporting demands.

One of the 7 "COVID-19" deaths in our county was a older gentleman with severe pre-existing conditions who was already residing in our hospice facility - criteria approximately 6 months to live and recognition any further treatment is futile. Yet he was listed as one of our county's "corona" fataliies.

Effinghell

@russianbot....bingo

Yeah, Right

Actually, I am still of the opinion I am correct, and note that your rebuttal does not actually address my original post.

After all, it was this: Any Chinese citizen NOT under lockdown was free to move around internally, just as any Chines citizen NOT under lockdown was free to fly overseas. The residents of Wuhan were not able to do either. All very consistent. All very logical.

As for your rebuttal, you are WRONG. On several counts.

The Chinese government informed the WHO on December 31, not January 3. They did that because this was a NEW virus, not because the virus was out of control (it wasn't, even by Jan 5 there were only 44 cases and no deaths and no evidence of human-to-human transmission).

"The Chinese were on notice that they had a big problem"

On notice from whom, Larry?

On Jan 3 they had no evidence of human-to-human transmission (the "wet-market-bat-soup" hypothesis was not dismissed until Jan 20).

Note the date: the Chinese only began to suspect they had a "big problem" by mid-January, had their proof by January 20, then went to lockdown a mere three days later.

"The DIRECT flights from WUHAN to foreign destinations included:"

I'm going to ask again, because this is an important question: did those flights out of Wuhan continue *after* the city was put into lockdown? Yes? Or no?

The Chinese were "on notice" of a big problem on January 20, Wuhan was put into lockdown on January 23, which is a quick reaction in anyone's book.

ANY movement - domestic or international - by the residents of Wuhan BEFORE January 23 is not evidence of any guilt by anyone.

Vig

We need to stress to the members of ASEAN where this virus came from.
Posted by: BillWade | 28 April 2020 at 11:11 PM

Meaning? To the extent I understand, China/CCP let them all come in to return with the idea they would then spread the virus?

Thus, China should have kept American family members of Chinese origin out to prevent spread in the US of A? And that they didn't serves to prove the Chinagate Coup?

Ok, we have ongoing Russiagate, and I fully support that the Flynn case was somewhat dubious. But now we have a case almost as relevant as Russiagate that moved form Corona-Panicgate to Chinagate in about 3 weeks?

English Outsider


Deap - There's an ignored factor behind this Corona lockdown. Had the President of the United States merely sat there saying "They were due to go anyway", and had carried on saying that while the bodies were piling up in the morgues, we can forget about Russiagate scams and the whole TDS business. He'd have been automatically out on his ear next election and rightly so.

Of course it's a lot more complicated than that and I'm not trying to second guess what was done in another and very different country; but take note of the UK experience. Because of the WHO advice I've mentioned above HMG did just sit there for far longer than it should have and look at the mess we're in now -

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87592#disqus_thread

That's from a man who really does know his stuff on infection control. I don't of course, but I can read. My sincere belief is that you're lucky Trump and his team adopted a different approach and went hell for leather to suppress the disease as soon as it became apparent that the initial WHO advice was wrong.

sam

America's Covid-19 death toll surpasses number of Vietnam War fatalities while its ex-battlefield foe reports no virus deaths to date

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s representative in Thailand, John MacArthu said “Our team up in Hanoi is working very, very closely with their Ministry of Health counterparts,”

“The communications I’ve had with my Vietnam team is that at this point in time, [they] don’t have any indication that those numbers are false,” MacArthur said, according to US National Public Radio


Why is Hanoi doing so well? Here is the chronology:

On January 16, the Heath Ministry alerted government officials on how to stem an expected virus outbreak.

On January 21, The ministry told hundreds of Vietnam’s hospitals and clinics to start preparing for cases.

On January 30 when the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed the virus was a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.”A National Steering Committee on Epidemic Prevention was established.

Early in February, Hanoi began warning the public and created an informational website in the Internet-savvy country. Police issued fines for not wearing a mask in public, threatened imprisonment if a maskless person infected anyone, and banned gatherings of 20 or more people. Teams went door-to-door in neighborhoods suspected of having infections.Tens of thousands of people, including visitors and citizens arriving from abroad, were quarantined in guarded dormitory camps dotted throughout Vietnam. Soldiers left breakfast, lunch and dinner outside each room. By March, officials were also monitoring incoming international passengers, and banned all foreign entries after March 22, except for Vietnamese citizens returning home and other individuals, who all had to undergo a two-week quarantine

Hanoi’s success contrasted with Washington’s fumbling, hesitant and still conflicting approach to the pandemic

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-vietnam-won-and-us-lost-their-covid-19-wars/

Fred

Thanks Larry,

Looks like the procommunist trolls have come out in force.

Bills Wade,

so citizens of communist China have no agency and would not circumvent a travel restriction imposed on foreign nationals to keep Americans safe by traveling to an intermediary location before traveling to the US. Looks like Trump should bar entry for all Chinese nationals until the state of emergency is over.

Harlan,

The Obama administration imposed a moratorium on gain of function research at US labs due to lab accidents at the CDC. Asia Times had a write up on the April 22 and back in 2014. It is why Dr. Fauci faces an investigation over the $3.7 million funding to the wuhan lab for that type of research.

turcopolier

fred

I am inundated with "procommunist trolls." you do not see 10% of them.

walrus

Yeah Right.

By Jan 1 China knew it was a new SARS - like Coronavirus. What they told the WHO was that they didn’t know what it was. The WHO then tasked a Melbourne group with identifying its type which they discovered was a coronavirus. That information was then passed to a Dutch group in Rotterdam who were Coronavirus experts. They then identified it as “new”. The Chinese then came out on 7th January with this “discovery”. Another week deliberately lost.

Fred

Sam,

Trump cures cancer as zero deaths reported since Wuhan flu appears in US! Communism wins, just like when Jane Fonda cheered them on. Your glowing report of Vietnam, source of infections disabling USS Roosevelt strike group, leaves out those tidbits of info, two of which are actually true.

Christian J Chuba

China isolated Wuhan on Jan 23 while still allowing outbound international flights ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_lockdown_in_Hubei
That is when WHO announced that Coronavirus was contagious, with 5,000 estimated cases (almost all in China), and rated the risk of a global outbreak high. Granted they didn't formally declare a global health emergency but this should have been clear enough.
Apparently our vaunted Intelligence Agencies need to have such things tied in a ribbon.

Is allowing outbound flights sinister? I don't know, maybe some Americans or Australians want to be able to escape and serve out their isolation at home rather than in China. Perhaps the Chinese figured that restricting incoming travel is the responsibility of the host country and not theirs. After all, they did publicize their lockdown.

New York been an epicenter of the virus for months, I don't recall New York banning outbound flights. Perhaps Tom Cotton should sue NYC for $2T.

Sidney Caesar

Christian, our intelligence agencies saw this coming (and tried to warn the administration) in January- it was Trump and his (mostly) incompetent minions that fumbled the ball. Predictably, the cowardly Trump continues to refuse to accept responsibility for his failure to protect the United States from invasion (by virus). And frankly, this would be a more egregious failure if it the virus was deliberately or accidentally released from a Chinese lab (which it wasn't). While the US spends more on intelligence and national defense than any other dozen countries collectively, that money was essentially wasted by an administration that protected the US down to the standards of Venezuela rather than up to the standards of South Korea.

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