Sic Semper Tyrannis

"Mexico joins Canada, notifies U.S. it's ready to implement new NAFTA" CBC

 

"The Mexican government notified Canada and the U.S. late Friday that it is ready to implement the revised North American trade agreement, leaving it up to the Americans now to decide when the deal should take effect.
Jesús Seade, Mexico's chief negotiator, announced the news on Twitter overnight, saying in Spanish that "with this, we will have a modern instrument that will strengthen the competitiveness of the region and energize the trilateral relationship."
Juan José Gómez Camacho, Mexico's ambassador to Canada, followed that tweet with one of his own on Saturday morning, adding that "this new instrument will strengthen the North American region and provide new dynamism to our economies.""  CBC

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Absolutely!  "Laissez les bon temps rouler!"  pl

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/saturday-nafta-notification-1.5522007

The world economy is dying ... therefore ...

700,000 jobs were lost in March according to the US Government.  The unemployment rate is at 4.6% percent for March.  That would be bad enough but the computation was made early in the month when the full effect of the forced shut down of economic activity was yet to be felt.  In behind the scenes conversations government officials say that they think the real unemployment rate today is more like 10%.  Nearly all social and economically productive activity has either stopped or is decelerating toward ZERO; manufacturing, banking, office work of all kinds, restos, etc.  I was happy the other day to find a pet store that was open.

This plague will pass, perhaps to return in waves until a stable "herd immunity" is attained.   Work toward a cure and eventually a vaccine will contribute to that level of health for the long term.

Sadly, the herd will by then be living in poverty and social isolation in a vastly different world in which shortages of goods and services and a wildly inflated currency are the "new normal."  In that world the people will be living in a "country" much weakened by the failure of long range transportation.

The US government's herculean efforts at relief of people and business are admirable but are really only temporary measures the effect of which will expire leaving the country with a need for further inflationary projects.

In this situation, the Democratic Party seems to see a great chance to "kneecap"  Trump and blackmail its opponents into measures for the advance of "progress"  that may well lead to violence.

The economy must be relieved of our self-inflicted wounds.  We must "grasp the nettle" and accept the fact that while we can care for the ill, and seek to protect the old and infirm, their welfare must, to some extent, be sacrificed for the good of the herd of the young and fit.

LET the economy stand up!  pl

Marine Corps returning to its roots - TTG

"The 2018 National Defense Strategy redirected the Marine Corps’ mission focus from countering violent extremists in the Middle East to great power/peer-level competition, with special emphasis on the Indo-Pacific. Such a profound shift in missions, from inland to littoral, and from non-state actor to peer competitor, necessarily requires substantial adjustments in how we organize, train, and equip our Corps. A return to our historic role in the maritime littoral will also demand greater integration with the Navy and a reaffirmation of that strategic partnership. As a consequence, we must transform our traditional models for organizing, training, and equipping the force to meet new desired ends, and do so in full partnership with the Navy." (Department of the Navy)

————

This is the lead paragraph of “Force Design 2030” laying out the USMC Commandant’s guidance for transforming the Corps from a land force competing with US Army missions to an integral part of the US Navy focused on littorial operations. It is a long overdue return to the Corps’ original mission and focus much like the Pacific island hopping campaign of World War II.

 The majority of the articles dealing with this are focusing on the decision to jettison the three Abrams tank battalions. The Marines will also drop three infantry battalions and exchange most of its tube artillery for rocket artillery (perhaps MLRS) as well as a good chunk of its vertical lift capability and even some of its assault amphibian capabilities. They also plan to greatly increase the UAV capability and reduce the manpower of the remaining 21 active infantry battalions by 200. In conjunction with the Navy, the Marines are planning for smaller, lower signature and more affordable amphibious assault ships even mentioning an LST sized ship.

As important as these changes will be, the more important change is in how the Marines intend to fight. Rather than the standard two up, one back, high-diddle-diddle, straight up the middle approach, the Commandant says his Marines must be capable of distributed operations. I first read of these distributed operations about 25 years ago when the Marines conducted a field exercise with an infantry battalion operating as small independent units over a wide battlefield. The results of the exercise impressed USMC leadership. General Michael Hagee, then Marine Commandant, defined it thusly. “Distributed operations is the coordinated interdependent action by dispersed small units that are task organized for the mission, throughout the breadth and depth of the battlespace, ordered and connected within an operational design focused on a common aim,  and with increased access to functional support.” 

Small units operating independently is not new. Companies, platoons and even squads operating independently is something widely practiced in the Army and probably in the Marines as well. The difference lies in a high degree of inter-coordination among these independent units along with a high degree of coordination with supporting fires. Every rifle squad must be capable of also functioning as scout-snipers and an ANGLICO team. In addition, Marines will have to know how to set up, operate and secure unsupported FAARPs and temporary MLRS firing points. That’s a lot to ask of a jarhead. SOF practice these things. Jarheads don’t. Nor do grunts. To this end, General David Berger, the current Commandant of Marines, calls for a complete revamping of current entry level and advanced infantry training programs to meet the demands of distributed operation. Although he doesn’t mention it, this doctrinal change will call for an equally far reaching revamping of Marine officer training. 

These changes are a tall order. At least they won’t be wasting their time trying to compete to be another Army. They may end up being a much smaller Corps than envisioned in “Force Design 2030.” That’s not a bad thing if they become a littorial force capable of distributed operations.

BTW, the painting above is the "Attack on Derna" by Charles Waterhouse. It shows Lieutenant Presley O'Bannon and his Marines attacking Derna. What the Marines don't tell you is that the attack was led by US Army Captain William Eaton. Eaton was also the US Consul at Tunis. With little support and fewer resources, Eaton raised an army of Arab tribesman and Greek mercenaries. He attacked and took Derna with the help of Lieutenant O'Bannon's Marines. I like to think of Eaton as a forerunner of the Green Berets. DOL 

TTG

https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Portals/142/Docs/CMC38%20Force%20Design%202030%20Report%20Phase%20I%20and%20II.pdf?ver=2020-03-26-121328-460

https://news.usni.org/2020/03/23/new-marine-corps-cuts-will-slash-all-tanks-many-heavy-weapons-as-focus-shifts-to-lighter-littoral-forces

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 2 APRIL 2020 by Patrick Armstrong

COVID AND RUSSIA. As of today there are about 3600 cases and 30 deaths, most in Moscow City. Why so much lower than other places? Some reasons: Moscow ordered travel and flight closures earlier than Western countries; it does not appear to have run down its stockpiles of PPE (as the USA and, apparently, most Western countries did); the war-time/emergency preparedness of a country that knows the cost of not being prepared and the fact that anti-Russia sanctions have made the country very self-sufficient. (As even the NYT admits. A few weeks ago, though, in NYT-land, Russia's economy was faltering. Hard to keep up with the Party Line it is.) That having been said, Moscow is pretty much locked down and other cities are following suit. Putin laid out the government's program last week. In essence: a lot of help for the little guy and more taxes on rich people who keep their money outside Russia. In today's address to the nation, he extended the paid holiday to 30 April. The Constitutional referendum is postponed. Entry has been banned to foreigners, an isolation hospital is being built for Moscow and the military are building more around the country. Russia has enough PPE and ventilators that it can spare them for other countries. Several potential vaccines are being tested. So, perhaps after thinking it had escaped it, Russia is bracing but it seems to be much better prepared than the Western average. Helmer discusses the state of play.

SOFT POWER. The brutal truth is that the "leader of the free world" took 500,000 test kits out of Italy, tried to bribe a German pharmaceutical company to move to the USA and advertises easy immigration for doctors. NATO and the EU have done little to help their worse affected neighbours. Meanwhile Russia, China and Cuba – all bad boys to the "Rules-Based International Order" – are providing assistance. (And to the USA itself! PR? of course it is, but it's also a teaching moment which the WaPo doesn't get.) The propagandists leap to their keyboards: "Beware of Bad Samaritans" is a classic. It includes the lie that 80% of the stuff Moscow sent Italy was useless (Bryan MacDonald takes the effort to trace the lie back to the the fake newsmakers at the Atlantic Council/"Integrity" Initiative) and manages the logical leap of accusing China and Russia both of giving useless stuff and giving too little of it. Liars have no imagination: all they can do is project their own behaviour.

NEW NWO. Post COVID, things are going to be a lot different. I offer Stephen Walt's "The Death of American Competence" for your reflection. Pompeo's boast only six weeks ago that "The West is winning" looks hollow. This 2019 rating of countries best prepared to deal with a pandemic hasn't worn well (USA and UK first, Russia and China in the middle). 2020 – the year the West lost its mojo.

OIL WAR. Oil is about US$25 a barrel. The story in brief: Russia refused a production slowdown, Saudi Arabia (but why?) started pumping like mad, COVID reduced demand and here we are. Have Putin & Co decided that now is the time to bring down the USA? Or at least its fracking business? Or is it a power play to teach Washington a lesson so it will stop interfering with Russia's market? Anyway Russia is in a position to outlast either Saudi Arabia or the US frackery.

TRIALS. One of Mueller's "triumphs" was indicting a St Petersburg company for interference on behalf of the Russian government. (Weepy Maddow flashback). A safe stunt because the Russians wouln't show up in court. But they did. The prosecution has dropped the case. Why? Bluster, bluster, but the short answer is that there was no evidence. Let Bernhard, who got the story right from the beginning, take you through it. Oh, and the owner of the company is going to sue. In a similar situation, the judge in the MH-17 trial has demanded the prosecution 1) say whether it did receive the claimed US evidence 2) show it to the judge. Leaks tell us that the JIT has never seen it; not surprising because there isn't any (that's an easy deduction: if the US really did "observe it" as Kerry claimed, we would have seen it now.) Sometimes Western courts work the way they're supposed to.

AMERICA-HYSTERICA. No COVID holiday here: Putin’s virus! Sow discord! Disinformation! Russian sources pushed conspiracy! Disinformation! Hacking of our minds! And not just the USA: Disinformation! Sow panic in West! Weaken Western society! Online disinformation assault! Any deviation from Big Brother's latest can only be Russian disinformation.

EUROPEANS ARE REVOLTING. Europe sends COVID aid to Iran, Washington adds to the sanctions.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. WaPo admits Crimeans happy to be in Russia. WaPo!!?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

Corona Projections, Flawed Models versus Real Data by Larry C Johnson

The panic surrounding the Corona pandemic is real, not imagined. But the source of the panic comes from ignorance rather than the alleged lethality of Corona. I understand why the average person with no medical training or background will hear the various shrill media reports and assume that everyone who tests positive will soon be on death's door.

But that is not the truth. The data that is being reported so fat shows that only 12% of those who tested positive were admitted to a hospital in New York. And only 20% of that number were admitted subsequently to an ICU.

 

While that number is not astronomical, it still creates significant problem because ICU beds represent only a small fraction of the Hospital beds available. Take the Bronx Care Hospital Center as an example. It has a total of 415 beds, but only 26 ICU beds and 11 Coronary Care beds (the Coronary Care beds can be used as ICU beds). In other words, only 9% of the beds have the infrastructure and the nursing staff to support ventilators. If we use that number as a benchmark, NYC has a total of 2139 ICU beds. 

 

The real problem is the lack of nurses qualified and trained to work in an ICU environment. You can deploy 5000 ventilators but there are not enough nurses and Respiratory Therapy techs available to operate and maintain these machines. Respiratory Therapy techs are unsung heroes because they are the ones who actually make the machines run. The tubes connecting the patient to the vent must be checked every hour and changed out every shift. It is this human factor that is at the breaking point even if only 3000 ICU beds are needed in New York City. Ford or Boeing cannot mass produce these professionals.

 

I think there is a widespread belief that the U.S. Government--the CDC in particular--has a good grasp on the number of infections and patients. But that does not appear to be true if the same methodology being used to count Influenza is being used for Corona.

 

HARPER: TIME FOR A BIG BIPARTISAN INFRASTRUCTURE BILL

If it had to take a global pandemic to break the Washington gridlock and partisan infantilism, so be it.  We are at a crossroad moment now and this is perhaps the last best opportunity to address one of the critical causes of the national crisis:  Decades of disinvestment in our basic infrastructure.  No need to run on about the warnings from the American Society of Civil Engineers that our nation's power grid, water systems, transportation and public health infrastructure are in a state of collapse.

Yesterday President Trump tweeted about the need to shape the fourth stimulus around the $2 trillion infrastructure plan that was briefly on the table last year.  By planning a major infrastructure effort as soon as it's safe for people to return to work, we guarantee a rapid recovery and a jobs program to absorb those who will permanently lose their jobs as the result of the pandemic shutdown of the economy.

We are in a rare moment when we can get bipartisan support for such a measure.  Pass it now before the moment passes.  Last time around, Trump's bizarre behavior was due to the fact that after he had the initial meeting with the Congressional Democrats to work out a bill, Republican lawmakers read him the riot act--probably at the behest of the Koch brothers who detest anything that involves government work for the general welfare. 

Best approach to a national infrastructure plan is to establish a National Infrastructure Bank.  The Fed and Treasury are accumulating trillions of dollars in new assets on the books, so there can be a Federal deposit of some of those assets (Treasuries and commercial paper)  in such a bank to issue credits to viable projects.  Government loan guarantees and sales of bonds in an infrastructure bank would get the ball rolling.   Analogous to the War Bonds during World War II.  Give citizens a 2-4 percent return on investing in job creation and infrastructure expansion--better than they can get anywhere else that is safe under the Fed's zero interest rates policy.