"Americans are underestimating how long coronavirus disruptions will last" statnews

"President Trump, after signaling that he may try to restore some sense of normalcy in the country by Easter, has acknowledged that difficult times are ahead and that restrictions should remain in place until the end of April.
But experts say that, even if some restrictions are relaxed, it’s unlikely life as normal will resume in early May.

A former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Thomas Frieden, said this week that it’s understandable that people want to know when businesses can reopen and some facets of life can resume. But he said the focus of public discourse now needs to be on the public health response, not the question of when restrictions can be lifted.

“Decisions to reopen society should not be about a date, but about the data,” Frieden, now president and CEO of the global public health initiative Resolve to Save Lives, said during a briefing Wednesday for journalists. “How well and how quickly we do these things will determine how soon and how safely we can reopen.”"  statnews

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Sooo, pilgrims.  you should expect that EXPERTS will continue to insist that only they should have the authority to re-start close-up interaction between people in the US.

Power is a wonderful intoxicant.  The mere possession of power over others is a temptation to many.   The "experts" all have jobs and a paycheck.  Jim Acosta has a job and he loves Fauci, king of the experts who also has a job.

Perhaps if the Deplorables are starved long enough they will give up their orange god.  At last!  At last!  pl

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/03/americans-are-underestimating-how-long-coronavirus-disruptions-will-last-health-experts-say/

Comments

[Alves]

We probably will have 18 to 24 bad months, but that does not mean that it will be quarantine all the time.

There are ways to easy things around, like masks, lots and lots of tests, more ICU and ventilators, better treatment protocols, people that have antibodies for the disease, etc.

Either way, just like people need to work to put food on the table, lots of people will change their behaviour until they feel safe to go back to their old consumption habits, and that will impact the economy no matter how much people rage against it. In other words, the economic crises is not just a supply problem, we have a demand problem too.

Also, that is one of the main reasons why plenty of economists support lockdown now all over the world. They think that no lockdown now will make the health and economic crises worse a few weeks/months later.

[Chicot]

Upstater,

Slight correction. Boris Johnson is in intensive care but is not, as yet, on a ventilator.

[Keith Harbaugh]

While all of us are obsessing about COVID, perhaps a brief look back at the Horowitz/Atkinson/FISA abuse front is worthwhile.
Joe diGenova gave a ten-minute interview (on 2020-04-06) on those issues:
https://youtu.be/B5bZpF5huOw

[Fred]

J,

That goodness the NYT conveniently put that hidden recording out from behind that paywall. Personally I can't wait to see the Project Veritas Planned Parenthood videos front and center on the OMB NYT.

Did you catch the part about Guam having their own health care problems? Yes, Sec Nav will take some heat and the press will have another days worth of 'scandal' to impress the resistance with.

Where were the senior NCOs and what were they doing? Those sailors needed leadership from them before this all started and if there's an ass chewing needed it should come from them not the Navy Secretary.

[Charles Schulte]

Patients with vaping-related lung injuries typically show up in emergency rooms with shortness of breath after several days of symptoms that resemble flu or pneumonia.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/vaping-illness-tracker-evali.html
https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/basic_information/e-cigarettes/severe-lung-disease.html

It's been here longer than they are telling us. Globalist planned insurance policy, they told you the only way we get rid of Trump, collapse the economy.

[BillWade]

Artemesia:

I don't care what you think about Armstrong but if you live outside of the United States you might want to give him a second look and try to start buying some US Dollars when you can find them.

[turcopolier]

J

What did Crozier think was going to happen when he went out of the chain of command in an unclassified E-mail message to a lot of people? that was the equivalent of a press release. OTOH SECNAV's reaction in going to Guam to chew on the ship's company has a certain histrionic silliness about it. IMO if Crozier survives CODIV-19 he should be re-instated in command with an admonition or reprimand in his record.

[J]

Colonel,

With both carriers and their crews being very important to Pacific security in dealing with the Communist Chinese's PLA in the China Sea area. Frankly, I don't understand with the COVID pandemic being known months in advance of today's Crozier/NAVSEC imbroglio, where was the CNO in the decision making to keep his Naval assets away from and not allowing port stops to potentially infected areas like Vietnam and Japan, and maintaining their combat readiness given the PLA threat?

The CNO gets paid big bucks to think and plan ahead, and not let his Naval assets be hung out in the breeze, like what we're now witnessing with both carriers and their crews. The CNO's shortsightedness puts a lot of DoD personnel and assets in the Pacific theater in undue harms way.

[Fred]

J,

There are a few admirals between Crozier and the CNO, starting with the one on board commanding Carrier Strike Group Nine. The Pacific Fleet Commander made some statements about how great people of Danang were in greating this ship and her escort in the first week of March, right after completion of a 14 day at sea quarantine period. Perhaps the navy should put out an order turning off the tv's and thier daily death watch reports.

[turcopolier]

fred

Was the carrier admiral riding Theodore Roosevelt?

[Mark K Logan]

Fred, J, Pat.

Doyle Hodges of War On The Rocks runs through what is publicly known at this point about the COC issues.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/04/the-navys-crisis-of-special-trust-and-confidence/

IMO Crozier decided he was taking that boat to Guam come hell or high water. If making a public statement with his now-famous letter hadn't done the trick he would've committed straight-up insubordination to get there. He had to know either meant the end of his career.

[BillWade]

I don't know about the Navy but in my old Air Force personnel days, any and all manning shortages had to be classified "Secret" or above. I found it incomprehensible what this admiral did but understand the President playing to his audience of mostly civilians and being compassionate.

[Fred]

I assume so; one of the earlier commenters pointed out that that is the airwing embarked. I would think he's in the chain of command even if not aboard, and this certainly wouldn't need a letter with 20 people cc'd.

[Keith Harbaugh]

Two questions on the TR/COVID thing:

1. Who made the decision to have the TR make that port call at Da Nang? What approvals were required?

2. I would think part of the job of Naval Intelligence is making risk assessments, which would surely include biological threats. The threat from COVID was surely well-known, not requiring any sensitive methods. Did ONI prepare and disseminate a report on this threat? If not, why not?

Now three comments from me:

Supposedly the port call was deemed low risk because there were few or no cases of this illness in Da Nang. If so, was the result just had luck, or did those crafty Chinese (or somebody else) deliberately infect a crew member? I seem to recall something along that line involving Kim's half-brother.

Why blast the CNO over this?? Surely he has bigger things to worry about than that particular port call.

Finally, a cursory reading of that War on the Rocks article did not show the issues above being addressed.

[turcopolier]

fred

Whether the admiral was "flying his flag" in TR or another ship he was Crozier's immediate commander and his decision in the Danang and Guam port destinations would have been been his. But, hey, I am just a grunt.

[Deap]

In 1993, The Lancet published the following data about "pneumonia being the old man's friend?": What was old, is now new.

Abstract
SummaryIs pneumonia "the old man's friend"—a terminal event for patients who will otherwise die soon of underlying chronic disease?

If so, chronological age might influence treatment policy. We investigated the predictors of 2-year mortality after patients' admission to hospital for community-acquired pneumonia, and focused on the predictive value of age. In a prospective cohort study 141 consecutive patients were admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia.

Clinical, laboratory, and sociodemographic data were collected on admission. Comorbidity was categorised as mild, moderate, or severe by a physician based on the patient's medical history. Survival was assessed at 24 months after discharge.

22 (16%) patients died in hospital. Of the remaining 119, 38 (32%) died over the next 24 months. In a Cox model, 2-year mortality was independently related to severe comorbidity (relative risk [RR]=9·4) or moderate comorbidity (RR=3·1), and to haematocrit less than 35% (RR=2·9) (all p≤0·005).

However, compared with patients aged 18-44 years, patients aged 45-64 (RR=0·84), 65-74 (RR=1·28), and 75-92 (RR=1·99) were not significantly more likely to die during the 24 months after discharge (all p≥0·2).
Old age should not be a sole criterion for withholding aggressive treatment of community-acquired pneumonia.

[Mark Logan]

Pat, Fred,

It's a sea thing. The captain is always the sole authority on operations aboard his own ship, which includes judging the seaworthiness of the ship and crew. I suspect nobody in the Navy will be button-holing the Admiral and demanding to know why he allowed this to happen. Wasn't his call. Not in peacetime anyway.

My gut says some perfumed prince in the Pentagon wanted to keep that ship at sea over the recommendations of its captain simply so "The Navy" could brag they had maintained 100% operational readiness right through the Corona virus crisis. The captain decided he wasn't going to let one sailor die to fulfill that ambition.

If so, God bless him.

[Fred]

Col,

I thought the same; but I'm only a lowly sub sailor.

[turcopolier]

mark logan

Does not the admiral command the whole carrier group? Including the TR and her screen? If not, what good is he? Could he have relieved the captain himself?

[Jack]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm

Michael Burry of “Big Short” fame on why these extended lockdowns are the cure worse than the disease. He’s been pilloried for his views by the media cognoscenti.

It appears that many of those still getting paychecks or pension checks are all for continuing the lockdown until the virus has been beat, while the newly unemployed with no safety net believe that it is worth the risk to get back to work to feed their families.

[Mark Logan]

I believe it's a tradition that dates back to the square riggers. The Admiral directs the fleet and the captain directs his ship. In a fight the captain has a full-time job anyway. Admirals certainly could relieve captains, but it was rare. To effectively command one of those highly complicated, sometimes peculiarly individual, ships and crews required intimate knowledge both.

[J]

Here's an article about a biologist who spent 18 month in China citing EMF saturation on human imunosystem.

http://duluthreader.com/articles/2020/03/12/19851_chinas_massive_amount_of_immunotoxic_5g_networking

[glib1]

Kevin McDevitt @1

I don't get it. Home Depot in Michigan is open, but if you go there to buy something you are in violation of the law and you get a $1000 ticket? That sounds like trapping to me.

[Upstate NY'er]

As the economy falls over the cliff, national decisions are made based on failing models (2 words for that - "climate models"), we are now in the hands of the truly stupid.
Just like after 9/11.

[anon]

sbin

I got it in 2018.took 2 courses of antibiotics and I was breathless.bad cough no fever,first time I have ever had that.had a MRI and they found an opacity on my lower right lung.said it was the site of the infection.I am convinced that this covid virus has been around before just getting stronger.that year I met many people who took months to shake it off.