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16 April 2020

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Ingolf Eide

Colonel,

Understood. Just to be clear, it wasn't rigourous academic or legal proofs I had in mind.

Vig

search for a culprit and howls for a hanging. Look at what happened to Iraq after 9/11.
Posted by: walrus | 16 April 2020 at 06:08 PM

Corona as 9/11 Redux?

You have no idea what awful things we can do to China. No hope! Sob! No hope! They have the penicillin!
Posted by: turcopolier | 16 April 2020 at 03:25 PM

We came, we saw, ... we dismantled their factories, brought penicillin production back home?

zài jiàn, màn zou

TonyL

Colonel,

We would never thought that your analysis has no sound premise (If there were such evidence, it would still be classified information, I believe).

So we are stuck in puzzlement why China would make such a stupid move, it they did.

US stock market is already precariously hanging with trillions of dollars of derivatives. If we payed attention to that, then we see why the Fed actions recently made sense. The Fed has no choice, they need to keep the whole house of derivative cards from falling.

blue peacock

"Anyway the US picking a fight with China is a non starter, China is many times stronger."

LondonBob,

I believe from some of your earlier posts that you work in capital markets. If so, you must know of the precariousness of the financial system in China. Their banking system is many times the size of their economy and they have been papering over substantial degradation and losses by rolling over their assets for a good long time. Additionally, the dollar debt of their businesses is very large relative to their cash flows. This of course is a problem writ large all over emerging markets.

Trump began the move to put a spanner in the works of growing the supply chain base in China. The Wuhan virus is bringing home to many countries their vulnerabilities in basing their industrial production in China. Any reduction in exports means less dollars to service that gigantic USD debt. The eurodollar market has been for some time seeing shrinking liquidity. This only exacerbates the dollar debt problem.

Now, it is quite possible, that even with the massive money printing by the Fed, and contrary to consensus macro opinion, the dollar could rise even further relative to other countries currencies. That would be like a wrecking ball to the Chinese financial system and in particular their banking system which may have to be completely taken over by the government.

While many perceive China's biggest strength as economic, I don't think many are examining closely their economic Achilles Heel - their massive banking system sitting on huge losses and the gigantic outstanding USD debt in their corporate including SOE sector.

Just as a point of reference China's banking system is now larger relative to GDP than Japan's was at its peak in the late 80s. We've seen that movie before.

The Twisted Genius

The YouTube video by laowhy86 entitled “I found the source of the Coronavirus” is a good example of the advantage of knowing the language and culture of a target region when conducting collection and analysis, even open source collection and analysis. Thanks to Outrage Beyond for pointing out the video in his earlier comment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

The video lays out how the “Bat Lady” researcher from the Wuhan Virology Lab did research in southern China and discovers that some locals there were infected with a coronavirus from the local bat population. She brought some of these bats back to her lab for further research. A researcher from the lab became infected with what would eventually become known as covid-19 and apparently died in late December. Then the coverup started. The dead researcher’s body was not properly handled and the virus began to spread. The Chinese government waited several weeks, until there were several dozen infected in Wuhan, before notifying WHO that there was a problem.

This story is in line with the IC report provided to Trump in early January that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab and not from local bats. The wet market story was probably part of the CCP coverup. IMO the reports of a deliberate Chinese bioweapon or a deliberate US Army bioweapon are both shithouse rumors worthy of QAnon. Genomic sequencing of the virus puts those conspiracy theories to rest.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200317-andersen-covid-19-coronavirus.html

China’s initial coverup and continuing lack of candor are largely to blame for the worldwide spread of the virus and the ensuing misery. They don’t give a rat’s ass about us barbarians. But Trump’s coverup and lack of candor have to share in the spread of the virus in the US. Lives could have been saved and the economic damage could have been mitigated if he acted on the information provided to him. He chose to believe Xi and his gut rather than his IC and some in his own administration.

Jack
.@SenMcSallyAZ & I are introducing the Stop COVID Act to make China liable for unleashing COVID-19 on our country. Americans victimized by Chinese Communist Party lies & deceit deserve the opportunity to take China to court in the U.S. & demand compensation.

https://twitter.com/marshablackburn/status/1250878212743278592?s=21

Senators Blackburn and McSally introducing this legislation is important. What’s McConnell gonna do? Back CCP?

LondonBob

Sorry Colonel but you sound like the Prussian General Staff talking about Russia, except 1914 was a few years ago and even then they only ended up destroying the world they knew and loved.

America has as many problems as Britain does, these problems are largely domestic, and unless the Chinese start engaging in the same sort of activities the likes of Soros and his fellow travelers do they will remain well down on my enemies list. The Chinese will be the dominant power in Eurasia and APAC, I just hope my country still exists in some sort of form I recognise when I am an old man.

Walrus, reading Dr Henry Niman he says the virus has mutated in to an Italian strain that is now dominant and that is more virulent than the Wuhan original, he concurs with many others that, like most coronaviruses, it mutates too much for a vaccine to work.

Actually if I were to suspect the Chinese it might be that they actually overplayed the deadliness of the virus and encouraged us to lockdown, damaging our own economies as much as they did theirs. Then again if our leadership were less pathetic we could have closed our borders and kept our economies open as many such as Taiwan, Japan and Australia did to varying degrees.

El Sid

This plot is truly difficult to unravel, what with the “official narrative” changing all the time. But personally, I find myself tossing around a different idea. No definite proof, just pure conjecture - if I may.

We all accept the existence of a US Deep State. And China? What of the CCP Deep State?

In 2003, just after the assassination of Dr David Kelly, I came to the realisation that there existed an international brotherhood amongst the spooks of many nations. After all, these people live in a very rarefied atmosphere where they can only commiserate with their fellow spooks. Whether those of allied nations, or non-allied nations. You see some of the latter in John leCarre’s stories where he writes of the joshing between UK/US and Soviet spooks. Sure that’s fiction, but he had been a spook himself.

So, we know Trump is in a battle with his own Deep State. Is Xi in a similar situation? Or worse, are the two Deep Doo-Doo Sates joined at the hip?

Don’t mean to be rude. Just conjecture, as I say. But my wife thinks there may be something to it.

Charlie Wilson

Colonel

You have to realize that your opinion and words carry more weight than any organ of USG ( forget the media, a pack of yapping dogs). And what you say scares the crap out of everyone.

Charlie Wilson

Eric Newhill

Ingolf,

Actually, the real risk is low to non-existent. The virus almost exclusively kills the old and infirm. It takes out those who are no longer contributing to society. Chinese thinking would see this as a benefit.

According to the CDC the virus has killed < 17,000 in the US; far less than, say, pneumonia. However, their getting the media to hype the virus and create panic has created massive destruction to the US economy and to the ideology of freedom. I'd say that's a huge benefit (for the Chicoms) for the most acceptable cost of a few thousand dead elderly.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

turcopolier

Charlie Wilson

I recognize my responsibility in this matter.

Eric Newhill

TTG,
The "Bat Lady" story is probably somewhat true. Once the virus is out of the lab, how ever that happened, opportunities present.

For all we know, the Chinese tested the virus on "dissidents".

I don't know how you think Trump was supposed to act more quickly. He wanted to stop travel and the democrats and the media leaped on him with the standard slurs of "racism" and "dictator". Short of immediately sealing the borders and leaving Americans stuck OCONUS, there was no way to keep the virus out of the US.

turcopolier

TTG

In the "Nature Medicine" article you cite the researchers do not state that their conclusions with regard to origins are more than "possibilities."

turcopolier

TTG

"Qanon" I had never focused on this phenomenon. I read the wiki after you mentioned it.

Philip Warren


Chinese Coronavirus Is a Man Made Virus According to Luc Montagnier the Man Who Discovered HIV:

https://www.gilmorehealth.com/chinese-coronavirus-is-a-man-made-virus-according-to-luc-montagnier-the-man-who-discovered-hiv/

Yeah, Right

I'm sorry, I am a little confused here. The ever-changing reports on what did/didn't happen in Wuhan are those that we have all been reading in the English-language MSM.

The Chinese government may be many things, most bad, but nobody believes that it controls the western media. You have to look elsewhere for that.

That what has been reported regarding the initial outbreak and spread of this disease has been fragmented is not something I dispute. Clearly it has been All Over The Shop.

Perhaps that is indicative of a deliberate and sophisticated multi-level cover story. Perhaps. I don't discount it out of hand.

But isn't it also what you would expect if the Chinese were caught by surprise and were floundering around and struggling to understand what, exactly, was happening?

Conflicting theories, alternate rationalizations, finger-pointing here-there-and-everywhere is exactly what I would expect when a government is struggling with something that it wasn't expecting and isn't prepared for.

Fred

Eric,

"It takes out those who are no longer contributing to society."

What is the contribution of a fetus to our society? Whose opinion of "contribution" is going to be used, yours?

The Twisted Genius

pl,

The possibilities mentioned by the genome sequencing researchers refers to the two origin possibilities of either "the virus evolved to its current pathogenic state through natural selection in a non-human host and then jumped to humans" or "a non-pathogenic version of the virus jumped from an animal host into humans and then evolved to its current pathogenic state within the human population."

The Twisted Genius

pl,

QAnon seems to be the wackiest true believers of the Trumpists. It's a toss up whether the QAnon followers or the evangelicals believing Trump is sent by God are the vanguard nutcases of the Trump movement. I think there's a lot of overlap between the two.

Fred

TTG,
"China’s initial coverup and continuing lack of candor are largely to blame for the worldwide spread of the virus and the ensuing misery."

I agree.

"Lives could have been saved and the economic damage could have been mitigated if he acted on the information provided to him."

Was that action supposed to take place in December, when the House committee investigating the Ukraine "whistleblower", hearings which led to the impeachment in the House; was that when he was supposed to shut down travel from China?
Was that action supposed to take place on January 11th when the House impeachment managers released their 100+ page impeachment memorandum? Was it the day the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court refused to allow members of the Senate to mention the name of the alleged "whistle blower" or was it supposed to happen immediately after the Senate voted not to remove him from office?
Was that action supposed to take place on February 4th, when Trump mentioned the Corona virus in his State of the Union speach, the one Speaker of the House Pelosi ripped up on global tv?

"He chose to believe Xi and his gut rather than his IC and some in his own administration."

How do you know that? Which IC told him what, the Russia Collusion ones? Just kidding. So public reports now, in April, say the administration was warned earlier. I repeat the questions I asked above with the added question of what CDC and FDA were saying. You know, Fauci and Birx etc. Did they believe their gut or Xi and the WHO? Just curious since the knowlege of 16 April is not the knowledge available in January, other than the fact that many of the federal agencies are ridden with incompetence, "resistance" and in some cases outright sedition.

turcopolier

TTG

I will put you down as undecided about Trump and his voters. Do you think Biden will choose Stacey Abrams as his VP running mate?

turcopolier

TTG

I read the article. The authors are clear that these two possible origins are "possibilities." "Possible" is the word used in each case.

Eric Newhill

Fred,
I was proposing the Chicom perspective re; productivity.

Personally, I think the elderly continue to contribute by sharing their accumulated wisdom with the young. I also think we owe the elderly care and protection.

That said, I have not missed the irony that it tends to be the generation that demanded and propagated the killing of the unborn en masse,for the economic convenience of the mother, who now want to destroy the economy out of fear for their own survival.

The Twisted Genius

Fred,

I never expected Trump to do anything in December. He should have started preparing once the threat of a pandemic appears in his PDB in early to mid-January. His partial travel ban from China was implemented in a half-assed manner. Too many loopholes and insufficient screening and quarantine procedures. 46 countries shut their borders before we did. It was as if Trump's wasn't in it. Instead he held 9 political rallies and 4 gold outings in January and February.

In addition to the PDB warning of a possible pandemic emanating from China, Azar and Navarro were trying to get Trump to act in January and February. Fauci was pushing a policy of social distancing in February. Instead Trump was still telling us there was nothing to worry about and that Xi was being very forthcoming and acting correctly. He screwed the pooch in his early reaction to the crisis.

On the other hand, his current concentration on reopening the country is exactly what he should be doing. After an initial stumble with claiming the divine right of kings, he issued science-based guidelines for a phased restart of the economy and will work with the governors. Good on him for this.

The Twisted Genius

pl,

Ha! Enjoyed your considering me as undecided concerning Trump and his most fervent followers. There are wackos and wingnuts on both sides of the political spectrum. I don't know who Biden will pick. Stacy Abrams may have a place in the future of the Democratic Party, but I don't see her as being ready to be president on day one. Governor of Georgia, yes, but president, that would be a crapshoot.

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