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18 April 2020

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Deap

Israeli scientist observes a definite corona pattern in various countries, regardless of mitigation protocols: peaks at 40 days, disappears after 70 days: https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn/2020/04/18/israeli-professor-compares-rates-of-infection-in-ten-countries-and-makes-a-stunning-discovery/

Brian

What happened to all the other seasonal virii that afflict humans this time of the year? Did they all go into self isolation?

Deap

Now that we have new vocabulary terms like "panic porn", this author provides a thoughtful analysis of "What is really fueling the Wuhan virus hysteria": https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/17/what-is-really-fueling-wuhan-virus-hysteria/

JerseyJeffersonian

Talk about bureaucracies fumbling the ball when things were at Game Speed:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/contamination-at-cdc-lab-delayed-rollout-of-coronavirus-tests/2020/04/18/fd7d3824-7139-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html

A real confidence builder, eh? Aargh. Hope they run their Level 4 labs a bit better.

Chicot

So probably an ifr more or less the same as the seasonal flu, as many people suspected. Here in the UK, the government is stuck in a trap of it's own making. Aided and abetted by an irresponsible and sensationalist media, they have whipped the general public into a frenzy of panic and hysteria. Even young, healthy people who generally have little to fear from this virus, are now terrified of normal, everyday interactions. As a result, it's going to be quite difficult for the government to coax people out of their homes to start the process of getting back to something like normality.

Marc b.

So if you accept the conclusion of this report and add the following what do you get?

“Le coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 responsable de la pandémie de Covid-19 qui a déjà fait plus de 120 000 morts dans le monde serait un virus manipulé, sorti accidentellement d'un laboratoire chinois à la recherche d'un vaccin contre le SIDA. C'est l'incroyable révélation que le professeur Luc Montagnier, prix Nobel de médecine en 2008 pour la "découverte" du VIH, fait aujourd'hui à Pourquoi Docteur au micro du Dr Jean-François Lemoine.”

What’s the agenda?

Barbara Ann

Robert

An excellent post which goes to the heart of this matter.

The media's obsession with reporting the number of "confirmed positive cases" as a proxy for the progress of the epidemic has always frustrated me. Even worse is estimates of mortality rate using this figure, a methodology with makes the breathtakingly unscientific assumption that only those who we test have the virus. I see this as analogous to the Rand Corp's body count measure in VN as a proxy for progress in the war: If you can't count what is important, count what you can.

This study counts what is important. It applies the correct approach of estimating the likely true infected population via extrapolation from a random population sample. Lo and behold we find that an estimated 50-85x more people in Santa Clara Co. have probably been infected than have actually tested positive. A far lower real mortality rate follows logically.

Your final paragraph highlights the real problem now. Face and careers must be saved, even if that means perpetuating the pseudo-science underlying the decisions to lock us all up. One must hope that a few decision-makers will have the guts to admit they were wrong and if necessary fall on their swords, so we can shake ourselves free from the mass hysteria.

Mark Logan

His statistical analysis may not be accurate. If they are, to what should we attribute need for temporary morgues in Spain Italy and NYC?

turcopolier

All

"if this study presents the situation realistically, the fatality rate for COVID-19 is similar to a flu season." think about that pilgrims, think about it. Perhaps what is needed is a bonfire of the epidemiologists and politicians.

Eric Newhill

Mark Logan,
To hold the bodies of the people who die every day, just like they died every day last year, and the year before and the year before that and every year going back to the origin of humankind .

The bodies have to be held because funeral related operations are shut down; not because there are extra bodies above what would happen in a normal bad flu season. The difference is this year they are are taking extra precautions around bodies and services cannot be held, etc.

egl

This is tricky stuff: https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25

Eric Newhill

Sir,
First it was the Russian collusion witch hunt, then it was the shampeachment and now this virus BS. Pitchforks and torches are definitely in order before they pull something this November. It getting old real fast watching them try one scam after another and knowing it's a scam from the day they introduce it.

Fred

" Politicians and bureaucracies do not want to admit they made a mistake or did something wrong. Because mayors and governors jumped to conclusions and issued unnecessary and destructive orders, they are now stuck, and do not want to cancel their decisions that destroyed incomes and harmed the well-being of people. "

That's the understatement of the year. They are also immune from the destrcution not having lost jobs or income. Given the level of agitation in some regions of the country I give the politicians and bureaucracies about three weeks before a bunch of James Hodgkinsons start taking individual action. I also find it very interesting that Antifa and other groups have been silent for months. Blanket orders to wear facemask will give them great cover when they swing into action again.

Deap

Eric, now we know why Nancy Pelosi wanted us to be talking about her ice cream freezer instead of the implosion of Democrat's corona-gate and Democrat's Russia-gate, occurring at the exact same time. Nancy knew what she was doing. Look, a squirrel over here! Grotesque.

Bobo

As usual you lay out the facts in the style of Joe Webb. Bravo Bravo.

It’s the flu and all we have done is maybe not overwhelm our medical capabilities at best. But then the cost is horrific in lost jobs, mental anguish and an economy that will take time to rebuild.

Time will flush out whether this was a bio weapon used by China or their intentionally running shoddy bio lab practices that allowed the virus to escape. Either way it will result in a highly diminished economy that their leadership will be held responsible for by the people of China.

Alves

The false positive issue makes this study all but useless, as pointed by several other scientists.

There are plenty of data around that are slightly better to stablish COVID-19 letality.

Meanwhile, the USA is pointing toward what Trump said would happen a few days ago (65K deaths), and that WITH quarantine and social distancing. Just be patient for a while longer. Your politicians, scientists and industry do have plans and the means to come out of the worse of this crisis stronger.

Unfortunately, not all other places in the world can say the same.

Mark Logan

Eric,

Perhaps that is a factor, but there are significantly more deaths than in a normal year in NYC.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

I don't think you will find an ER employee in any of those three places who believes is just a another flu season. That this is just another flu.

Brian

I think this was a metaphysical Ides of March orchestrated to remove President Trump from office. Was it not the fifteenth of March that he decided to shut down the U.S. economy? If it turns out that this was basically a hoax(I'm not denying this is a legitimate health concern), then Mr. Trump may be finished.

Barbara Ann

egl

Good to see a peer review of this paper already, no doubt more will follow as well as more rigorous serosurveys in other places. It makes some valid points, not least one suggesting the sampling process being done via FB invite may have been flawed.

An embedded link to a tweet explains well what I was getting at in my comment above in rather unscientific language - i.e the often important distinction between case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR).

https://twitter.com/SRileyIDD/status/1220465337113640960

turcopolier

Brian

He would be finished because of a hoax perpetrated against him?

Eric Newhill

Mark Logan,
The ERs in NYC were overwhelmed by the 2017/2018 flu as well (which killed something like 69K Americans). I dispute there are "significantly" more deaths in NYC this year. I'm using the term "significant" not as small effect at p= 0.05. I'm using it as "a heck of a lot more". if there is some small effect it will will normalize by the end of the year; meaning 2019/2020 won't be more deadly than 2017/2018. Many of those who were killed by the flu/covid were on the way out anyhow

NYT huh? A source we can trust. Right then. I like how NYC added 3.700 deaths "presumed" to be covid. Well, there were emergency room visits back in Oct 2019 that the CDC says presented with covid like symptoms (see it on the CDC website). Lots of flues have the same symptoms. As someone else said, the politicians are trying to cover for their stupid overreaction and their tyranny.

Terence Gore

"Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long in high temperatures and high humidity, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true...

The National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center, which conducted the experiments, has traditionally kept a low profile because of its classified work on biological warfare defense and bioterrorism. Fineberg, in his letter to the White House, did not go into detail on the planned experiments, noting that the lab shares its findings with the interagency task force on the coronavirus."

https://news.yahoo.com/sunlight-destroys-coronavirus-very-quickly-new-government-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-still-last-through-summer-200745675.html


I am going to hang my mask on a clothesline after use

Deap

Brian, Cities, counties and states shut themselves down, well before Trump made any federal decision. Particularly in the blue states like California who were the most eager to commit "panic porn", and egregious over-reach under the rubric "public health and safety".

Not sure how you get people beyond their own self-inflicted sense of peril. They were already primed to believe the worst was finally upon them, after three relentless years of Orange Man Bad. The final word howver may be the one's uttered by the dweeb in the TP line - I panicked because I saw other people panicking.

War babies had JFK shot. Boomers had John Lennon. Millennials had 9-11. Is this national corona shutdown GenX's moment of mortality? The day the snug world one grew up in, was irredeemably over. In the larger sense.

Jack

This interview of Dr. Bhattacharya from Stanford prior to the Santa Clara study is very interesting. His hypothesis has proven to be correct with the study of a representative sample of the Santa Clara population.

https://youtu.be/-UO3Wd5urg0

steve

Peer review of the Santa Clara article. Math heavy but not that hard to follow.

https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25

Steve

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