Way Past Time for Proper Perspective on Corona Virus by Larry C Johnson

If you are panicked and fearful about Corona virus you are guilty of abandoning the fundamentals of human reasoning. The facts of this virus do not justify the shutdown of the global economy. It is ridiculous. Let us just look at some very basic numbers. These are not my numbers.

The world population is approaching 7.8 BILLION as of 10:30 am on 23 March 2020 (7,772,832,940 and rising). There have been 168,000 babies born today around the world as of 10:31 am. That number also increasing by the minute. That means about 270 new human beings per minute are entering the world.

In one hour there are 16,000 new births around the world. And how many have died from the Corona virus since the first of January? 15,328 (from John Hopkins as of 10:40 am). That works out to roughly 8 deaths per hour globally. Catch my drift? If someone you love and care for dies of Corona virus it is a sad, tragic loss. I get it. But the reality of Mother Nature is that life is far more potent than death. 

The idiot, irresponsible media would have you believe that there is corona virus lurking behind every bush and blade of grass. No one is safe as they wildly clang their media alarm bell. But when considered as a percentage of the global population, the number who have tested positive is .00004 % (in other words, 4/10,000 of a percent). That number barely registers.

Yes, there are some hospitals that are overwhelmed. But that is not the norm. 

Why is India not being brought to its knees by a tidal wave of corona virus? They do not seem to understand the concept of social distancing:

Right now, according to the data published by John Hopkins (and updated everyday), about 23,000 new cases are being diagnosed every day. Of those, the death rate for those who have tested positive is 4%. In other words, out of every 100 people who test positive, four die. Sad if you are among the four, but you would play those odds in a casino and come away loaded with cash.

I am not saying the virus is not real. I am not saying it should be ignored. But I am saying that the fear being manifested in so-called "developed" countries is unwarranted and fueled in large part by a mouth breathing, irresponsible media intent on scaring the hell out of viewers.

If the media was doing actual reporting, we would know how many hospitals are overwhelmed and unable to handle other patients. We would know what percentage of people who test positive are admitted to the hospital. We would know what percentage of people admitted to the hospital go into intensive care.

And what about testing? The media obsession with testing is but another symptom of the insanity that has gripped the media propaganda maelstrom. Unless you have symptoms, testing for corona virus is a complete waste of resources and your time. More importantly, it gives you a false sense of security. If you are tested today at 6 pm and then have contact with other people you can still be infected. A test is not a vaccine. It does not immunize you.  

It is past time that we focus on reason and facts, not fear. 

 

Comments

[Deap]

Remember the fear LBJ had being labeled "soft on communism" when running against Goldwater. So much fear, I recall, he sent 50,000 young Americans to die in Vietnam. Too bad this is an election year, it goosed up this "flu" beyond all recognition.

Why the rest of the world went along with this extreme fear obviously become a factor of our global cultural interconnectedness today. The good, bad and ugly of it all .First it was fun and full of shared virtue; now it has become a destructive too. Just like any well-meaning government program. Entropy in action - devolving to find its lowest common denominator.

I believe the Greeks already dealt with this - so what is old is new again. Moses told us not to worship false gods, so they knew the power of rumor and deceit too. Always had to see history when one is living in the middle of it. But this is/we an historical event.

Victor Davis Hansen will most likely havethe keenest insights when this settles out - but right now he too can only be an observer. 911 gripped us in irrational fears. HIV gripped us in irrational fears. Polio gripped a prior generation into irrational fears. War of the Worlds gripped a nation in irrational fears. Duck and cover was an irrational national response to fear.

To answer your question, yes fear is and has been a compelling plot mover. What made the times so ripe this time? When the times also made Greta Thunberg a saintly prophet just a few months prior, this COVID-19 plot twist should not come as much of a surprise.

[Deap]

Is two weeks of trial economic destruction better than throwing it all away on the wrong candidate in November 2020? The country just a few weeks ago was dangerously flirting with a Sander's presidency. The voices of youth shout revolution and species extinction.

Lest we forget the entire milieu, which became a willing placenta, just waiting for the seeds of corona virus to be embedded and find life. The plot of mass extinction had already been written, only the immediate agent was missing.

Does every new generation need a unique measuring moment? Pearl Harbor, D-Day, Hiroshima, JFK shot; John Lennon shot; 911; corona..... a moment of coming of age, when nothing is the same again?

[AK]

Fred,

After I posted my comment I realized how that bit about Hong Kong as written might come off as historically ignorant. I am indeed aware of the history and all that. What I meant to imply is that now would seem an opportune time for the PLA to make an actual move into the streets of Hong Kong and nullify the Basic Law and the status quo electoral governance (i.e. Xi declares the new status quo to be "one country, one system"). Or perhaps they'll get up to some other devilry that isn't so obvious as invading Taiwan, but just as nefarious. At any rate, the assessment of our national psyche and how shockingly fragile it seems at present was my main point. That, and the fact that our adversaries and enemies have to be taking notice of how we're handling this and planning accordingly.

[Domain]

When the disease spreads so quickly, we all will worry and so will the nations. Blocking borders and countries to limit and avoid spread is indispensable. But if the epidemic persists, people must learn to live with it, and re-opening business is indispensable.

[Upstate NY'er]

Whenever common sense comes up against hysteria, hysteria usually wins.
Just more evidence that a significant majority of people are worthless, lazy and stupid.
The swamp's last shot after the failure of "Russia, Russia, Russia" and the Ukraine phone call.
1) Cause a panic.
2) Panic tanks the economy.
3) Trump loses.
4) Swamp returns to its corrupt, thieving ways of endless wars, accumulating power and stealing from America.

[Jus' Thinkin']

Fred

You ask what happened to the masks and ventilators that the Obama administration should have restocked?

A better question might be why didn't the Trump Administration restock them? Obama left office over 3 years ago. Trump has been in charge since Obama left and his administration, reportedly, was briefed on the state of disaster preparedness by the Obama administration on Obama's way out. Why didn't the current administration act? I do not know, do you?

[Jus'Thinkin']

I would like to make two points here:

1. Trump appointed John Bolton National Security Advisor and he quickly gutted the National Security Council's Global Health Security Team, the people who were in charge of identifying and responding to pandemics. You can read about it in the Hill on May 10, 2018 here:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/387191-trump-official-overseeing-pandemic-response-suddenly-leaves-admin

2. Dr. Larry Brillant, an interesting epidemiologist has an interview condensed in ARS Technica from a few days ago. Dr. Brillant explains how and why we need to respond to an pandemic. It basically boils down to buying time for anti-virals and vaccinations to be developed. You can read the interview here:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/the-doctor-who-helped-defeat-smallpox-explains-whats-coming/

There is a link within the article to Dr. Brillant's 2006 TED talk where he predicts, with frightening accuracy, what is happening today.

It might be useful to watch TED Talk and consider your view of our government's response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

[Poul]

The important bit about death rates is that those who have had COVID-19 but didn't get sick enough to contact the health care services are not included in the number.

People who do get sick enough that they require medical help will get tested as part of the diagnosis but they are naturally more at risk of dying.
The CDC have a simple overview for severe outcomes from COVID-19. see page three.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6912e2-H.pdf

It's clear that guidelines for social distancing, etc. should be rigorously upheld if you have daily contact with people in the age group 60+. They are by far most at risk if infected. So until we have a vaccine that is the best one can do to minimize deaths.

Compared to the flu-virus the corona-virus is new, so we do not yet have the ability to reduce the death rate but it will no doubt happen.

But even the flu kills 1,000s of people each year. The US have had until now in this flu season at least 38 million flu illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths from flu. In a bad year that number (like 2017) can be considerably larger.

CDC flu index
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

2017/2018 flu season
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

[confusedponderer]

Thanks to by corona reduced business the employer of a friend has reduced her work time by 60% till june and that also includes reducing the salary, which will reduce her budget considerably giving that she has to pay rent, buy food etc.

She is rightfully unhappy about that and so far 'solved' the problem temporarily by taking most of her holidays so she would get the full salary for at least the next and a half months. She's now searching for a second job as a 'parachute'.

Good luck and good health to her.

[confusedponderer]

Upstate NY'er,
re: The swamp's last shot ...

Ah, the swamp.

Given the obvious fact that Trump, who sort of likes Xi's presidency or persistency for livetime, is happily surrounding himself with embarassing claqueurs like Grenell, misplaced 10 day clowns like Scaramucchi or the not yet officially certified "reality is not reality" lunatic Giuliani or who made the 'I have sued them 40 times and want to destroy that EPA' EPA leader Pruitt - has it ever occured to you that Trump wants to and is about to replace the so called swamp with one utterly loyal and dependent since there isn't any competitor on the GOP yet of his own?

How can one discuss corona, windmills, climate change, difficult mathematics like 2+2, science and/or science data with a "reality is not reality" person, be it the orange one or the former mayor of New York, his shadow foreign secretary and a creature who likely makes his neighbour states very happy that NY does not have nukes and especially did not have any during his time in office?

[vig]

Posted by: Upstate NY'er | 24 March 2020 at 12:34 AM

Manhattan would be upstate?

It feels the highly well done esthetically web site, may help you to connect dots. Connecting Finances and Medicine with American interests:

http://the-studio-reykjavik.com/medicine

I got bits and pieces about the virus and/or HIV and/as possibly a bioweapon. Above I linked to the medical expertise but the man may be helpful on finances too. That's why I link here beyond the YouTube video to his web site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8ilxBYZHvQ&app=desktop

[Keith Harbaugh]

What are the demographics of the fatalities?
If the fatality rate is higher among the elderly and people with other health problems, than why penalize everyone for their benefit?
People in nursing homes, for example, aren't contributing very much to society.
That's my POV.

[Keith Harbaugh]

Also, BTW, consider the impact on the USN.
How much social distancing is possible on an attack sub, or an aircraft carrier?

[Larry Johnson]

Jus Thinkin? Thanks for the Democrat talking points. You are anything but thoughtful. I'm not a Bolton fan nor defender, but you're wrong about the "gutting." The NSC is not the center for the crisis management of a pandemic in terms of manpower. The role of the NSC staffer is to ensure that the experts from the relevant agencies (e.g., NIH, CDC, FDA, Public Health Service, etc) are providing their recommendations and advice to the President. That is exactly what happened here. Getting rid of duplicative deadwood at the NSC is anything but gutting.

With respect to the ironically named Dr. Brilliant, the President's Corona Virus Task Force did that. So what's your point? That is what is being done. In fact, Trump's use of the Executive Order has circumvented some of the bureaucratic obstacles from FDA that would normally delay the process.

Could you please direct me to the comment you posted in January warning about the outbreak of the Corona virus? Can you show me where you applauded Donald Trump for restricting travel from China when most Democrats were obsessing over impeachment and attacking Trump as a racist? Yep. That's what I thought. You only have 20/20 hindsight.

[Eric Newhill]

Keith Harbaugh,
There is no need to just let the elderly and/or seriously ill perish. Rather, nursing homes and similar facilities could be quarantined. Individuals who are vulnerable and living at home could be directed to self-quarantine. Aids to these people could be tested every few days - and the rest of us could go on with business as usual,perhaps just washing our hands frequently, being conscious to not touch our eyes, nose and mouth; and accepting that we might come down to something akin to the flu with a minute risk of something serious developing. Really, that is what we live with every day, anyhow. We just don't tend to think about it.

IMO, there is, in the populace, a lot of subconscious anxiety and simultaneously a sense of deserving total protection from the realities of life on earth and it has culminated in this virus hysteria. The media and governments are all too happy to hype that psychological substratum and then emerge as the effective and necessary protectors of the sheep with expanded powers.

[Fred]

Keith,

"People in nursing homes, for example, aren't contributing very much to society."
I've heard of post birth abortion, just made legal in New Zealand BTW, but this is equal to Mao, Stalin and all the rest. Did you even contemplate what you wrote? Perhaps California should round up the mentally ill defacating on the streets of San Fran and open up some euthanasia clinics. Then they can stop projecting "Trump is Hitler" and become what they project upon others.

As to the Navy, you obviously have zero sea time. I don't even need to look at my sea service ribbon with all those oak leaves on it to tell you a sub at sea faces zero exposure risk since nobody is coming aboard for weeks or months. After the first 3-4 days at sea all the cases of colds, flu, etc run their course and the crew is going to be healthier than anyone ashore. Covid 19 risk is no worse in any of the home ports than elsewhere in those cities. Risk to family at home, well that's another story.

[upstater (not the other guy)]

India Goes on Nationwide Lockdown for 21 Days (NYT)

Modi puts all of India under lockdown for 21 days to fight coronavirus (Reuters)

[Keith Harbaugh]

Regarding Dr. Fauci, the following is worth considering:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/21/political-health-the-motives-of-a-very-very-political-dr-fauci/

Note the comparison of Fauci's handling of COVID-19 in 2020 to H1N1 in 2009.

[confusedponderer]

vig,
re I got bits and pieces about the virus and/or HIV and/as possibly a bioweapon

I read a comment article (not a reporting) that reminded me of Tom Collins (GOP) who likes the 'china bioweapon gone bad' narrative a lot (see below)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/business/media/coronavirus-tom-cotton-china.html

The article was iirc in some Trump fan club newspaper (I forgot the name) and the writer said that covid-19 was, of course, a chinese biological weapon that was super-duper-secretly developed in a super-duper-secret Wuhan BSL-4 biowarfare laboratory (of course, where else, except for an old unit 731 lab, but that is likely permanently out of service since 1945 and certainly was less safe for employees and unhappy bystanders) etc pp.

Asked by a reporter about whether he had any evidence for that remarkable story the writer iirc commented, probaly with that slightly demented whitehouse smile, "of course I don't have any evidence, it is super-duper-secret, you know" ;) ;) ;) ;p

That's likely the cunning salesman trick of bridgesellers in Brooklyn also successfully used to sell the astro-magical mercury-chlorine-slurry-vinegar-chrome-dioxin lemonade that is sold to make buyers happy and immortal. No more nasty tax paying also.

[Jack]

Larry,

What’s your point of view of our response compared to that of Taiwan, Singapore, HK and South Korea?

Taiwan has over a million visitors from the mainland annually with many Taiwanese traveling back and forth for business. I would believe the same with Singapore. Taiwan I read has had only couple deaths and Singapore none. They didn’t shutdown their entire countries and life has pretty much returned to normal.

The difference seems to be an early proactive response in identifying and isolating those infected. Note that South Korea and the US announced the first case of Wuhan virus on the same day. They moved aggressively to test and isolate with hundreds of thousands tested in drive thru tents. Now their reported case loads are declining without any nationwide lockdown.

BTW, I have first hand knowledge of a Chinese national who arrived in the US after the travel ban, arriving from a third country. Neither Customs nor Immigration officials checked this individual’s passport to verify if the person had been in China recently.

The economic devastation of a lengthy shutdown should not be under-estimated. During the Depression our economy contracted by a quarter peak to trough. A 6 month forced shutdown could replicate that kind of precipitous decline in our economy with all kinds of second order effects. It will not be as easy as turning on a switch to restart the economic engine.

[Mike C]

Larry,

We are fortunate that this virus is not worse, true. Consider it a shot across the bow. The correct responses that would have prevented the present situation are: 1- Restrict travel; 2- Test a lot; 3- Quarantine individuals and small groups. That would have effectively stamped out the sparks before they became fires.

Nassim Taleb & associates published this- https://necsi.edu/systemic-risk-of-pandemic-via-novel-pathogens-coronavirus-a-note -in late January. The paper is quite short. It is possible that Trump or someone in his administration saw it, because the China travel ban followed soon after, against contrary "academic" advice.

Why Trump stopped there, who knows? I heard he likes borders. The wider travel ban did not happen soon enough, and the lack of testing is obvious. We have a hell of a mess to clean up now and it flows directly from those poor decisions.

[Keith Harbaugh]

Fred: Re the Navy, note the requirement for a two-week quarantine.
That means, I think, a person can transmit the disease up to two weeks after initial exposure, even if he exhibits no evident symptoms.
Implication for the Navy should be obvious.

From CTH, let me point out one other article:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/03/22/the-chosen-one-rises/
I.e., Andrew Cuomo.

[Eric Newhill]

Jack,
You have identified one the many aspects of the official panic story that don't add up.

How would Taiwan have created a test for Covid-19 so fast? By the time Taiwan even knew there was a virus on the loose, its population would have been infected, especially with a latency period of up to two weeks. Can you explain that? I sure can't if I work within the framework of the panic story (i.e. there is a deadly highly contagious virus that directly causes deaths and serious illness).

IMO, there is a lot of bad statistical and research methodology occurring due to idiots, hysterics and opportunists in the media and various agencies; all designed to maximize the perception of risk and of fear itself. There are many variables not being taken into account that are very important in understanding what is happening and what the threat/risk really is. IMO, the CDC and WHO are disgracing themselves and ruining us. Those two agencies are part of the globalist socialist movement. That is clear from reading their publications. They also suffer from tunnel vision. They know and care nothing for economics today, yet in the past have made a lot of noise about the health impacts of social injustice and poverty.

[JohninMK]

Keith and Fred, its happened,

"Lucas Tomlinson LucasFoxNews
·
1h
BREAKING: 3 U.S. Navy sailors aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in Philippine Sea have tested positive for Covid-19, marking the first time the virus has spread to an American warship at sea: U.S. officials"

[Jack]

Eric

I read an interview with the guy at Taiwan CDC. He said Taiwan intel started hearing about these weird surge of deaths in Wuhan in November/December. They had boots on the ground who collected blood samples. This is before the Chinese ever declared there was a problem. They started canceling flights from several cities in China. On remaining flights they disinfected prior to departure and on arrival in Taiwan until they cancelled all flights mid January. All folks who had been in China were tracked once they landed in Taiwan for several days to insure they were not exhibiting symptoms.

Whatever. The bottom line is to your point why didn’t they see this explosion of cases and their ICUs swamped? Similar in Singapore with large numbers of people traveling to and from China.

I don’t know if it is “socialism” or sheer bureaucratic cockup. In any case our Congress always uses this type of situation to advance “socialism” for the well connected under the guise of providing relief for the Average Joe. In 2008 we saw homeowners foreclosed but Goldman Sachs bailed out. Both the Republicans and Democrats have not wasted any time here to load up the relief bill with an astonishing amount of pork for their main campaign contributors and clients of their K St buddies.

The WHO is interesting. While the Wuhan virus was raging in Hubei province they were singing the praises of Xi and the Chinese communist party apparatus, even stating putting curbs on travel of those from China unnecessary. Now they’re in full apocalypse mode.

I’ve not been able to figure out why CDC, NIH and FDA didn’t allow our huge molecular biology industry and the extensive medical diagnostic testing infrastructure we have in the country to get it done? They could have just arranged to pay these folks directly with no cost to the American public and we’d not have to shutdown the whole economy. This is such a drastic action with massive second order effects. Never in history have governments forced the shutdown of the entire economy.