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23 March 2020

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Steve Kaczecka

India closed borders today.

LA Sox Fan

The author of “The Black Swan” Nassim Nicholas Taleb has a completely different point of view, which I agree with. His paper from January 26 stated that we should already be panicking because the risk of doing nothing was too high. Here is a link to his paper. Enjoy. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e2efaa2ff2cf27efbe8fc91/1580137123173/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Path.pdf

Fred

AK,

Thanks for the clarification. I think Xi has already moved on Hong Kong by arresting a number of the leaders of the protests.

Fred

Jus' Thinkin',

Trump and Obama share a thing in common: they rely of the career professionals of the federal service to do their jobs. Neither Trump or Obama are inventory control clerks. Where were the LTC Vindman's of the CDC and what were they doing since 2009? Feel free to let me know. "The Resistance" comes to mind, and leadership at the SES level that focused on rainbowflag social justice initiatives that certainly got done. The fine people of the Empire State are seing the effect of that government budget prioritization in 2015 play out now. Shortly the people in the feces strewn streets of San Francisco and homeless mecca LA are going to see the results of Social Justice first policies rather than pragmatic government. But by all means, Obama's inspirational leadership had zero to do with getting those policies in place.

Chicot

Thank you for being an island of sanity in this sea of madness we are drowning in. One thing that seems to be entirely missing from the debate (and here in the UK, there is very little of that) is the very real human cost of shutting down society for an indeterminate length of time. What happens to the millions that are going to lose their jobs because of this? Poverty can kill. How are those with mental health issues going to cope with being virtual prisoners in their own homes? The suicide rate will undoubtedly rise. We are told that this is being done to protect the most vulnerable members of society but has anyone actually asked them if this is what they want? What about the 85-year old living alone whose only point of social contact is the pint down the pub? Loneliness can kill too. What about those who are no longer allowed to see their grandchildren? Is this freedom?

Who is asking these questions? No one, as far as I can tell. And if you dare to raise your voice and say you're not really ok with the country becoming a police state your told you "don't care" and "want the elderly to die". "Flatten the curve", "Stay at home", "Full lockdown now!". I never thought I'd live to see the day when not only did the UK become a police state, but the gullible masses actually demanded that it did so.

And for what? How many deaths recorded as being "due" to Coronavirus were actually "with" Coronavirus instead. In Italy, the average age of death was 80 and 99% of those who died had 1 or more serious health conditions. 50% had 2 or more. How many would have died anyway? In the UK, almost everyone of the deaths "from" Coronavirus had "underlying health issues". The governments own scientific advisor has now admitted that up to two thirds that die "from" Coronavirus might have died anyway. The link below is an invaluable resource for things that the msm fail to mention. All the data is sourced from official websites with links given.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

What we seem to be witnessing is a perfect storm of sensationalist media reporting amplified by social media causing a herd mentality among governments as well as populations. Everyone is terrified of seeming to do too little. Whatever measure taken is too little and/or too late. We are constantly told "they are doing this in France, why aren't you doing it", "why aren't you doing what they are doing in Germany" ...etc Trump and Johnson tried to go against the stampede but the pressure was too great and they caved.

Harry

Is 4% high or low? A lot of people have trouble with scaling risks. I found this useful.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15108782

The records of 89 consecutive patients 85 years and older having cardiac operations between June 1993 and May 1999 were retrospectively reviewed.

The operative mortality rate was 12.3%; probability of in-hospital death was 8.2%; risk-adjusted mortality rate was 3.2%.

Eric Newhill

I wonder how many homicides will result from the lockdown. I mean all those couples that can't stand each other, nowhere to go to get away from each other, no way to see their secret lovers, kids screaming and fighting, finances getting worse...an unconsidered cost of the panic reaction

Deap

It could only happen in California with its 97,000 SEIU 'health care" members

1. SEIU members told there were not sufficient protective gear to do their jobs
2. 97,000 SEIU members howl Orange Man Bad - he is killing us

3. Trump grants AG Barr power to track and confiscate protective gear.

4. In less than five days, SEIU all the sudden "discovers" 39 million masks, just laying around some warehouse and a facility that can make millions more. Facility apparently dumbfounded anyone would even want these.

5. SEIU now sells the masks for $5; Home Depot had them for $1.20

6 State. Governor Gavin "Hairgel" Newsom is initially responsible to provide adequate protective supplies not Trump at the federal level.

7. Working hand in glove (heh, heh) Newsom, SEIU and their 97,000 members gin up one more corona fake crisis, while trying to make Orange Man look bad.\

8. Trump and AG Barr beat SEIU and Dems at their own games. Only thing missing in the howls of MSM outrage.

9. Rahm Emanuel muttering yet again: never let a good crisis go to waste.
Dynamic Duo: Trump & Barr foiled the evil-doers, yet again,

Chicot

Eric,

Exactly right. It infuriates me that people are unable or unwilling to see that shutting down entire countries for any length of time will also result in deaths. Not only homicides, but also the suicide rate will climb. At some stage, the "cure" will become worse than the disease.

Fred

Chicot,

My state senator is already saying the 'virus' cuased the shutdown not Governor Whitmer's exectutive order. He's term limited and set with a lifetime pension and health care after a couple decades of 'public' service.

Paul Merrell

@ "Unless you have symptoms, testing for corona virus is a complete waste of resources"

I disagree. A huge number of people have the virus and are spreading it but have no symptoms. IIRC, it's in the neighborhood of 20% of cases. Widespread testing is going to be key in eradicating this disease.

Chicot

Fred,

What's the public mood like in the US? Are people suspicious of all these draconian measures or do they agree with them? People over here not only accept being placed under house arrest but they actually demanded it. Any dissent is shouted down by the mob. Whether or not this "crisis" is as bad as the msm are saying, this is a great lesson in how readily people will accept a police state if you find the right justification.

Paul Merrell, J.D.

@ "Unless you have symptoms, testing for corona virus is a complete waste of resources and your time."

That statement has no scientific support. E.g., "Researchers in Italy have experimentally confirmed that up to 3 out of 4 Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic and therefore undetectable by testing only people with symptoms." https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/03/27/why-usso-exceptionally-vulnerable-covid-19

China recovered by social distancing measures and massive testing to isolate individuals who test positive. Ibid. How we might recover without widespread testing is a mystery to me.

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